Matchups: Benching Brady
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1:00PM ET Games[/SIZE]
Detroit @ Buffalo
Forecasts for Ralph Wilson Stadium will be worth tracking going forward, but this week's isn't too scary. As of Thursday, Weather.com projected 50-plus degree temps with a 30-percent chance of rain. It's good news for two pass-happy teams. Only the Colts throw more than the Lions, and Detroit's pass-early, pass-often mentality doesn't change with
Shaun Hill under center. For the season, the Lions average 42.6 pass attempts per game. In Hill's four injury-free starts, he threw 43.5 times a game. OC Scott Linehan is running a spread-type offense with tons of 3-5 receiver sets and shotgun. Employment of the 'gun may be even more frequent this week with Hill nursing a fractured left forearm and struggling to perform hand-offs. Hill is worth a strong look as a QB1 against a Bills team surrendering a league-worst 17-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Hill has five 2010 starts. In them,
Calvin Johnson averages six catches for 79 yards with five TDs. Johnson was taken out of last week's game by
Darrelle Revis, but banged-up Bills LCB
Terrence McGee (back/knee) won't execute a repeat. ...
Nate Burleson capitalized on Revis' shutdown of Megatron en route to his most productive fantasy game since Week 17 of '07. Burleson was hurt for much of Hill's five-start run earlier this year, as
Brandon Pettigrew took on a more prominent role. Burleson is certainly on the radar as a WR3, but we can't reasonably expect consistency. He's always been an up-and-down player. ... Pettigrew's averages in Hill's starts: seven catches and 66 yards. Looking more athletic than ever, Pettigrew is a strong TE1 with touchdowns in three of his last four games. ...
Jahvid Best looked quicker than he has in several weeks during Detroit's Week 9 loss to the Jets, racking up 88 total yards. The Bills rank 32nd in run defense.
The Lions have quietly played stout pass defense since installing RCB
Alphonso Smith and SS
Amari Spievey as starters, but have trouble containing running backs in the flat. Over their past two games, Detroit has surrendered 14 catches for 114 yards and a TD to Redskins and Jets RBs. This appears to be due to SLB
Julian Peterson's coverage woes. According to
Pro Football Focus, the 32-year-old allowed six catches on seven throws in his direction to New York in Week 9. With
Roscoe Parrish (fractured forearm) out for the year, rookie
C.J. Spiller's role will increase in the slot. He'll be the best bet to capitalize on Peterson's declining athleticism and makes for a sneaky flex in PPR leagues. ...
Fred Jackson scored a fluky goal-line touchdown in Week 9 thanks to a 45-yard catch-and-run by
Steve Johnson, at the end of which Johnson was caught from behind. F-Jax only had 36 yards otherwise. Despite a matchup with Detroit's No. 27 run defense, Jackson remains a low-end RB2. The Bills aren't going to win the trench war Sunday.
Ranked sixth among fantasy wideouts, Johnson is an every-week WR2. Already a red-zone star, Johnson showed his ability to produce without finding pay dirt in last week's 11-catch, 145-yard destruction of Chicago. He'd normally match up with Lions LCB
Chris Houston, but Houston has a separated shoulder. If Houston plays, his tackling could suffer against Johnson's run-after-catch skills. If Houston doesn't,
Brandon McDonald would draw the start. McDonald has been cut twice this season. ...
Lee Evans is a better athlete than Johnson, but doesn't complement
Ryan Fitzpatrick's modest arm as well as Buffalo's possession receiver. Evans ranks 32nd in receiver fantasy scoring and is a poor WR3 option. ... Fitzpatrick's matchup isn't quite as good as it appears, but he's playing too well to qualify as anything less than low-end QB1. Continuing to earn his coaches' trust, Fitzpatrick's pass attempts totals have increased in five straight games.
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
The Cincy-Indy over-under is the second highest of Week 10, so fire up your Bengals and Colts.
Peyton Manning has the best TD-to-INT ratio (16:4) in football, ranks fourth in passing yards, and is on pace to finish as a top-six fantasy QB for a 12th straight year. He's safe to use against the Bengals' No. 17 pass defense. ...
Jacob Tamme and
Reggie Wayne ranked first and second in the NFL in Week 9 targets. Wayne leads the league in catches and will square off with RCB
Leon Hall, who was burned on
Mike Wallace's 39-yard scoring bomb last week. ... Tamme is filling the
Dallas Clark role (without the double teams), and leads all tight ends in fantasy points since taking over the position. His back injury is not expected to threaten his availability or effectiveness.
Just as an F.Y.I., Tamme's backup at "move" tight end is 6'1/255-pound H-back
Gijon Robinson, a 2007 undrafted free agent from Missouri Western. Unlike Tamme, Robinson lacks an extensive pass-catching background. He had 25 receptions for 253 yards and a solitary touchdown as a senior at his D-II school, and has been targeted twice this season, catching neither. ...
Blair White would be the biggest beneficiary of Tamme's injury. White has zero competition for slot receiver snaps with
Austin Collie (concussion) ruled out and
Anthony Gonzalez (knee) on injured reserve. ...
Pierre Garcon was all but eliminated from Week 9 by Eagles shutdown CB
Asante Samuel. The sledding gets a bit smoother against Bengals LCB
Johnathan Joseph, and Garcon would also benefit if Tamme sat. He's still an every-week WR3. ... Run defense is arguably the Bengals' biggest weakness, but
Donald Brown (3.13 YPC) is shaping up as "Just a Guy" and loses goal-line work to
Javarris James. Brown is a low-end RB2.
It's news to few by now, but
Terrell Owens saw 14 targets to
Chad Ochocinco's seven in Week 9. Nearing age 33 (he turns in January), Ocho no longer beats double teams and needs the Bengals to play from behind to have any shot at a big game. He's topped 59 yards twice, both coming when
Carson Palmer threw up year-high pass attempt totals. Barking at Palmer and LT
Andrew Whitworth won't save Ocho's fantasy season. ... Palmer, playing indoors for the second time all year, passed for 412 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks with a season-best 72.0 completion rate in his only other domed affair. The Bengals should be playing from behind Sunday in what projects as a point-filled game, so this is one of the rare times Palmer will be recommended in this space.
Since his 6/131/1 fluke in Week 7,
Jordan Shipley has a scoreless 75 yards in two games. ... The Colts are one of the NFL's better teams in tight end coverage.
Jermaine Gresham, averaging a disgusting 6.8 yards per catch, isn't a fantasy option. ... The Colts rank seventh against the pass and 29th in run defense, so Bengals OC Bob Bratkowski's game plan should be simple entering this one.
Cedric Benson, in theory, will receive
at least 25 carries if the Bengals plan to win. Indianapolis has overtaken the Buccaneers for the NFL's highest yards-per-rushing attempt allowed at 5.12.
NY Jets @ Cleveland
Santonio Holmes moved into a full-time role in Week 9. Leading the Jets in targets and yards, Holmes got the start at split end and played a season-high 56 snaps. (
Pro Football Focus had Holmes averaging 36.7 snaps in his previous three games.) Remarked Rex Ryan after Holmes' game-winning 52-yard catch-and-run in overtime, "That's what he does. ... He is explosive. Boy, did we need him." Consider Holmes an every-week WR3 going forward. ... The biggest loser with Holmes' role increasing is
Jerricho Cotchery, who in Week 9 played his lowest snap percentage all year. Cotchery is now a clear third receiver in a run-heavy offense and droppable in all leagues. ... With Holmes at split end,
Braylon Edwards is still the Jets' full-time flanker. Edwards will square off with shaky Browns LCB
Eric Wright for the majority of this one and is always worth a look in non-PPR leagues. Edwards is on pace for 10 touchdown grabs.
No longer breaking tackles and averaging a paltry 3.68 yards per carry in his last four games, the arrow is spiraling downward for
LaDainian Tomlinson. The 31-year-old was never a good bet to hold up in the first place, but coach Rex Ryan confirmed this week that L.T. will now begin splitting carries with
Shonn Greene. To this point, Tomlinson has averaged 15.5 carries per game compared to Greene's 10.9. Expect a role reversal, with Tomlinson still playing on most passing downs. Either way, L.T. takes a massive hit in non-PPR leagues. He's a very weak RB2 against a Browns defense that's surrendered the fewest rushing scores (1) in football and allows just 3.88 yards per carry. ... Still scoreless since Week 4,
Dustin Keller will attempt to break out of his funk in a matchup with a Cleveland defense that gives up the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends.
The Jets haven't let an opponent complete better than 54 percent of its passes in a month, which has a lot to do with the healthy return of
Darrelle Revis. According to numbers compiled by Manish Mehta of the
New York Daily News, Revis shadowed
Calvin Johnson in Week 9 for all but three snaps. The result? Five targets, one catch, 13 yards. Sit
Mohamed Massaquoi. ... The Jets' lone pass defense weakness is in the slot, where CB
Drew Coleman gave up six catches for 101 yards and a touchdown last Sunday, most going to
Nate Burleson. The Browns, unfortunately, don't have a slot receiver worth any kind of fantasy consideration. ...
Ben Watson has two catches for a scoreless 42 yards combined in his last two games. Sit 'em.
Peyton Hillis' matchup is daunting. The Jets rank fourth against the run and permit 3.34 yards per carry, good for second fewest in the league. Hills has proved himself matchup-proof, however, recording his biggest two games of the year against New England and Baltimore. Averaging 24 touches per game over the past seven weeks and coming off a 220-total yard, two-touchdown effort, Hillis isn't just producing on his own. Cleveland's line play has been fantastic, with C
Alex Mack leading the way. The Jets will gear up to stop him, but the Browns' entire rushing unit is playing too well for Hillis to be benched. He's the No. 4 overall fantasy back regardless of format.
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Minnesota @ Chicago
Jared Allen kick-started his season in Week 9, boding poorly for a Bears offense that essentially got last week off against a punchless Bills defense. Allen abused Arizona for 2.5 sacks, four tackles, a pass breakup, and a whopping 13 QB pressures, according to
Pro Football Focus. Allen's resurgence alone is reason enough to sit
Jay Cutler and worry about his receiver corps. The Bears' offense shuts down when Cutler is under duress. ... In Week 9,
Greg Olsen scored his first touchdown since Week 3. He saw a team-high eight targets as the Bears game planned to attack Buffalo over the middle. The strategy was somewhat successful, but it's just not Mike Martz's nature to sacrifice intermediate-to-deep shots to wideouts in favor of slower tight ends. Consider it a fluke game until proven otherwise. The Vikings are extremely stingy against TEs.
The Vikings' biggest defensive weakness is down the left sideline, where RCB
Asher Allen has been abused. Allen (concussion) is in danger of missing this game, which could vault injury-prone rookie
Chris Cook into the lineup. Already lacking ideal speed, Cook has torn both his right meniscus and left MCL since camp.
Johnny Knox is the Bears' weak-side receiver and worth a long look in non-PPR leagues. ... Bears slot man
Earl Bennett and flankers
Devin Hester and
Devin Aromashodu are all fantasy plays to avoid. Bennett's role is growing, but he'll face Vikes slot/LCB
Antoine Winfield, who helped to shut down both
Steve Breaston (3-28) and
Early Doucet (1-2) last week. ... Bears beat reporters expect Martz to reopen the deep passing game Sunday, taking an emphasis off the run.
Matt Forte's value is getting killed by his loss of goal-line carries to
Chester Taylor, and he's not expected to be a focal point of Chicago's Week 10 game plan.
Percy Harvin vaulted to elite receiver status in a thrilling nine-catch, 126-yard game against the Cardinals in Week 9. Despite a painful ankle injury, Harvin saw a game-high 12 targets and now ranks 16th among fantasy receivers. Assuming his migraine allows, Harvin will continue to give his opponent fits. Burned relentlessly by Big
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=5568"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2294"]Mike Williams[/URL][/URL] and
Steve Johnson in two of his last three games, Bears RCB
Charles Tillman appears to be on his last legs. He'll be no match for Harvin when the two meet in the open field. Despite
Randy Moss' departure, Harvin still plays plenty in the slot, where he is difficult to double team. ... Don't be fooled by
Bernard Berrian's nine-catch, 89-yard game last Sunday. He's
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2691"]Roy Williams[/URL] North, and it was Berrian's best yardage total since Week 13 of 2008. Behind Harvin,
Visanthe Shiancoe is
Brett Favre's preferred option.
The Soldier Field forecast is friendly, but Favre's career-high 446 yards from Week 9 should be approached with a grain of salt. He's been an assassin indoors in recent years, and returns outdoors in Chicago. The Cards also rank 27th against the pass, and Favre's 47 pass attempts were a high in his last 16 games. The Bears have given up a league-low five passing touchdowns and are allowing a league-low 6.0 yards per throw. It's not a good matchup. ... I was asked this week whether owners should grab
Toby Gerhart as stretch-run insurance for
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL]. Handcuffs are overrated in fantasy, except when the backup running back is good. Gerhart isn't, struggling to the tune of 3.3 yards per carry and also failing in his third-down back role. He's best left on waiver wires. ... In six career meetings with Chicago, Peterson has scored an otherworldly 11 rushing touchdowns and is averaging 138 total yards per game. The Bears just can't stop him.
Houston @ Jacksonville
Vegas projects Texans-Jags to be Week 10's highest-scoring game, and my expectation is that the 50-point over-under will prove conservative. Jacksonville's defense sets up perfectly for a struggling Houston passing offense to catch fire for a stretch-run surge. The Jaguars surrender a league-high 8.7 yards per throw, and only two teams have allowed more passing scores. Ranked 14th among fantasy quarterbacks after last year's top-five finish,
Matt Schaub is certainly hard to trust. But if he's going to have a breakout game, this matchup presents an ideal opportunity. ...
Andre Johnson is averaging six catches for 87 yards with two touchdowns in his last three meetings with Jacksonville. He's an obvious elite play against the NFL's No. 28 pass defense.
Update: Jaguars RE Aaron Kampman, the team's sack leader, is expected to miss Sunday's game after suffering a knee injury on the practice field. First-round DT Tyson Alualu, another pass rusher, was also injured Thursday and is questionable for Week 10.
Arian Foster, the No. 1 overall player in fantasy, will square off with a Jaguars defense that ranks 22nd against the run and has allowed the second most rushing touchdowns in football. Foster defines "must-start." ...
Owen Daniels would be a great play against a Jacksonville team giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends, but isn't close to 100 percent. His status won't be announced until just before game, and Daniels hasn't produced when trying to play through hamstring and knee injuries. Should Daniels sit out,
Joel Dreessen would qualify as a top-12 TE1 after a solid five-catch, 66-yard effort against Miami in Week 9. ...
Jacoby Jones has played ahead of
Kevin Walter for two straight weeks, but has just 47 yards to show for it. You could do worse for a desperation WR3 play in such a favorable matchup, but Jones is far from a reliable option.
The weak spot in Houston's pass defense has, is, and will continue to be CB
Kareem Jackson, whose confidence couldn't have been shot more than in Week 9, when the first-round pick gave up 55- and 28-yard scoring bombs to undrafted rookie
Seyi Ajirotutu. Jackson has shuttled between right corner and left corner, but of late is seeing his most action on the right. It's the side against which a red-hot
Mike Sims-Walker most often goes. Sims-Walker has TDs in three of his last four outings, and dropped eight grabs and 153 yards on Dallas in his last game. "MSW" has been maddeningly inconsistent, but he hasn't had this good of a matchup all year. ...
Mike Thomas is likely to spend most of the day against LCB/slot corner
Glover Quin. Thomas may lack MSW's upside, but is a more-than-adequate WR3 play against the Texans' No. 32 pass defense.
Chris Wesseling knocked
David Garrard's matchup out of the park in Waiver Wired, with this line as the clincher: "Every quarterback (the Texans) face is the
best in the league that week." Start 'em. ... Journeyman
Randy McMichael became the latest tight end to destroy Houston's safeties in Week 9, scoring twice. The Texans and Bills are the worst two teams in tight end coverage, and it isn't close. No. 3 fantasy TE
Marcedes Lewis is a highly recommended play. ... Houston didn't allow a single back to top 67 rushing yards in the first five weeks, but that trend has since been shattered. In their last three, opposing RBs are averaging a whopping 180.3 total yards per game against the Texans despite matchups with a Colts team in Week 8 that was without
Joseph Addai and a Chargers team in Week 9 that lost starter
Ryan Mathews in the first half.
Maurice Jones-Drew had a season-best game before Jacksonville's Week 9 bye to rest up, and is an elite RB1.
Tennessee @ Miami
The Dolphins' QB change won't have a dramatic fantasy impact, but
Chad Pennington can only pose an upgrade for
Brandon Marshall's red-zone production. After finding the end zone 10 times in 15 games as a Bronco last year, Marshall scored once in eight games with Henne. Marshall is on pace for 104 catches, so it's not like the touchdown shortage is on him. He'll go against feisty, if at times over-aggressive Titans RCB
Cortland Finnegan in this one. ... Among Miami receivers, Pennington has the most extensive rapport with slot man
Davone Bess. Also a good complement for Pennington's noodle arm on short passes, Bess should continue to rack up major PPR points.
Chad Henne didn't play well enough to put the Fins over the top, but his benching seems like a panicked move after a three-pick game at Baltimore. Outside of 28 exhibition game passes, only the Fins' coaching staff has seen Pennington play recently (in practice) after his third throwing-arm surgery. His arm strength mediocre at best before the latest operation, Pennington brings with him a ball-control mentality that figures to show up in a heavier reliance on the run game.
Ronnie Brown is coming off a season-high 99-total yard effort, also scoring for the first time since Week 1.
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL], meanwhile, had just two carries for one yard in Week 9. Game flow dictated Brown playing more against the Ravens due to his passing-down role, but it wouldn't surprise if he was utilized as the lead horse the rest of the way. Though Brown is only a low-end RB2 against Tennessee's No. 14 run defense, he has sneaky breakout appeal for the season's second half.
Randy Moss makes his Titans debut against a familiar opponent,
Vontae Davis, who as a rookie last season held Moss catch-less in the final three quarters of Fins-Pats in Week 13. Davis was burned for a touchdown by
Derrick Mason last week (just Mason's second all year), however, and according to
Pro Football Focus allowed completions on 5-of-6 passes into his coverage. Moss also has a long history of dominating in his first game with a new team. His first NFL line (1996): 4-95-2. His first with Oakland (2005): 5-130-1. His first with New England (2007): 9-183-1. His first with the Vikings this year: 4-81-1. For the life of me, I couldn't find a game log for the 1996 Marshall Thundering Herd, but I think it's a safe bet Moss dominated in his college debut as well considering he tied
Jerry Rice's single-season D-IAA record with 28 touchdown catches that year.
The running-game impact of Moss' addition won't just show up by way of teams pulling an eighth defender "out of the box." It's going to stretch the field. Sure,
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL] had that to some degree with
Kenny Britt, but Britt wasn't a consistent or tenured enough player to instill fear in defenses. Moss is, and will free up Johnson in the flats and underneath. Perhaps the biggest disappointment of Johnson's season is his passing-game production; he's on pace for 180 yards on 44 catches after posting a 50/503/2 line as a receiver last year. Expect a stretch-run surge in this area. ... Defensive attention on Moss typically opens up the field for others, e.g.
Ronald Curry,
Wes Welker, and
Percy Harvin. The aforementioned three were "inside" receiver types, however, and the Titans don't go heavy on slot receivers due to frequent usage of two-tight end packages and Pro Bowl fullback Ahmad Hall. Don't expect an uptick in
Nate Washington's production.
Carolina @ Tampa Bay
The Panthers informed
Mike Goodson that he would start this game with
Jonathan Stewart (concussion),
De[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=6307"]Angelo Williams[/URL] (foot), and
Tyrell Sutton (ankle) all slated to be inactive. A kick returner and passing-down specialist, Goodson holds an unimpressive 2.60 career yards-per-carry average but ranks fourth on the Panthers in receptions despite having played the sixth fewest snaps among Carolina running backs and receivers. Rather than gear up to stop the run, the Bucs are expected to use Week 10 to jump-start their pass rush, as they've
installed new blitz combinations after ranking dead last in the league in sacks during the first eight games. Against a Tampa defense that gives up 5.0 YPC and ranks 30th against the run, Goodson makes for an ideal flex start in PPR leagues. Though not a great bet for touchdowns, he shouldn't struggle to sprinkle 4-6 catches among his 15-18 touches Sunday.
Jimmy Clausen has been given the signal-calling reins following
Matt Moore's season-ending injury, although if Week 9 was any indicator the rookie won't have a long leash. Clausen was yanked for ineffectiveness against the Saints after generating a worse-than-lousy 2.6 yards-per-pass attempt average and throwing a pick-six to
Jabari Greer. Clausen has not shown the ability to connect with wide receivers this season, making
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2386"]Steve Smith[/URL] an extremely risky and unfavorable WR3, even against a gambling Bucs pass defense.
Brandon LaFell and
David Gettis are clearly bench fodder. Goodson is probably the best bet to lead Carolina in receiving this week.
The year-ending loss of
Dan Connor threatens to deal a major blow to the Panthers' rush defense. According to
Pro Football Focus, no 4-3 middle linebacker in the league played the run better than Connor during the first eight games.
Jon Beason moves inside, but Carolina will be forced to start
Jordan Senn on the weak side going forward. A career special teamer, the former undrafted free agent out of Portland State has safety size at 5'11/224 and has appeared for just one defensive snap all season. Senn is a great pickup in IDP leagues, but should make life easy on opposing running games at the integral position in the Panthers' Cover-2 defense. Though
LeGarrette Blount proved himself a risky fantasy option with just 13 carries last week, he did dominate the Bucs' rushing workload in the game's second half and should not struggle to fend off
Cadillac Williams for early-down work. In a favorable matchup, Blount offers plenty of upside.
Update: The Panthers' latest depth chart lists Nic Harris as the club's first-team weak-side linebacker. It appears Senn will continue to focus on special teams. Harris is a converted college safety and was waived by the Bills in the offseason. He projects to struggle similarly in run defense.
On pace for 1,118 yards and ten TDs,
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=5568"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2294"]Mike Williams[/URL][/URL] has emerged as an every-week fantasy starter with at least 82 yards in four of his last five games and touchdowns in back-to-back efforts. The Bucs' passing game is especially dangerous when play-action is working, and should experience quite a bit more success than it did in Tampa's Week 2 matchup with Carolina, when Cadillac was still holding the offense hostage in a 27-carry, 51-yard performance. Play-action gets Williams open deep, and he projects to draw Panthers No. 2 CB
Richard Marshall in coverage, as opposed to top CB
Chris Gamble. ...
Arrelious Benn has made two big plays in his last two games -- a 53-yard catch in Week 8 and a 14-yard touchdown in Week 9 -- but also has only two targets over that span. He won't be an option until his role increases. ...
Kellen Winslow still hasn't scored a touchdown this season and has just 36 yards since Week 7. He ranks 22nd among fantasy tight ends. ... The No. 12 overall quarterback,
Josh Freeman squares off with Carolina's top-five pass defense. Freeman is a QB2.
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4:05PM ET Game[/SIZE]
Kansas City @ Denver
A week after winning FedEx Ground Player of the Week with a league-high 238 total yards,
Jamaal Charles was limited to 10 carries compared to
Thomas Jones' 19 in Week 9 against Oakland. Coach Todd Haley attributed Charles' otherwise inexplicable diminished usage to a big hit that resulted in Charles banging his shoulder on the field. Charles returned, averaging 6.7 yards per touch compared to Jones' 1.68, so Kansas City almost certainly would've won the close game had running back roles been reversed. Look for Haley and OC Charlie Weis to make up for it this week. Charles isn't on the injury report, and in his last game against the Broncos reeled off 262 total yards and two touchdowns while averaging 10.36 yards per carry. This season, Denver has allowed the most rushing scores in football and permits 4.60 YPC.
Charles is the premier play in Kansas City's backfield, but Jones should still see 12-15 carries. Lacking big-play ability and a passing game role, however, Jones is a low-end flex play despite the favorable matchup. ...
Champ Bailey had a Week 9 bye to shake off any lingering injuries from the season's first half. The Chiefs have no wide receiver threats outside of
Dwayne Bowe, so he can safely expect to be shadowed by the Broncos' shutdown corner. ... The writing is on the wall for Weis and Haley's Week 10 game plan, as Denver is a top-eight team against the pass but 31st against the run. With expected temperatures in the 30s-40s at Invesco Field and snow in the weekend forecast (at least for Saturday), look for a run-heavy attack from the NFL's No. 1 rushing offense. Sit
Matt Cassel ...
Tony Moeaki came alive with nine targets, six catches for 63 yards, and a touchdown overturned on replay last week. The Broncos struggle against tight ends and the Chiefs are unlikely to get the ball to Bowe, making Moeaki at least worth a desperation look.
Chiefs-Broncos threatens to play out crazily because the teams are polar opposites. In theory, Kansas City should dominate possession time with its run game while Denver, as usual, has the most success when it goes to pass. Coach Josh McDaniels, however, was adamant this week to reporters that
Knowshon Moreno could be his featured player in Week 10: "We'd like to get him going, you know what I mean. That's an important part for us coming off the first half of the year. We didn't get that phase of our team going." McDaniels, of course, was speaking of the Broncos' 32nd-ranked rushing offense. Healthier than ever after the Week 9 bye, Moreno may have to wait another week for his breakout game with the Chiefs ranked ninth against the run and allowing just 3.84 yards per carry. Moreno is still a very good bet for a strong finish to the season.
The Broncos remain a pass-first team. Only five QBs have more attempts than
Kyle Orton, and only
Philip Rivers has hit more big plays. Orton's 40 20-plus yard completions rank second in football, and his nine connections of 40-plus tie Rivers for the NFL lead. Keep starting Orton until he slows down. ... With his head start Thursday night,
Roddy White temporarily overtook
Brandon Lloyd for the NFL lead in receiving. Lloyd only needs 56 yards to re-pass White, and my guess is that he'll come close to doubling the margin. Lloyd does most of his damage down the left sideline, which matches him up with
Brandon Carr. Carr is the weaker of Kansas City's corners. ... Slot man
Eddie Royal and flanker
Jabar Gaffney offer less upside this week. Royal hasn't topped 37 yards since Week 4. Gaffney will square off with shutdown LCB
Brandon Flowers.
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4:15PM ET Games[/SIZE]
St. Louis @ San Francisco
Coming soon.
Seattle @ Arizona
Coming soon.
Dallas @ NY Giants
The Giants lost two key offensive linemen this week, with C
Adam Koets (torn ACL) going on I.R. and LG/LT
David Diehl out indefinitely with a torn hamstring. Diehl has struggled in protection all year and Koets was a swing-type reserve, so the losses shouldn't be felt with impressive rookie LG
Mitch Petrus and successful reclamation project LT
Shawn Andrews now fixtures in the lineup.
Eli Manning is the No. 6 overall fantasy quarterback and a must-start against a bumbling Cowboys defense that's allowed the second most passing scores in the NFL and the third most yards per pass attempt. ...
Hakeem Nicks destroyed Dallas' struggling corners for two touchdowns and 108 yards on nine catches just three weeks ago, and also reached pay dirt in his lone 2009 game against the Cowboys. No receiver in the league has more fantasy points at the halfway mark.
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2386"]Steve Smith[/URL] is not expected to play after straining his pectoral in Thursday's practice, thrusting
Mario Manningham into the starting lineup at flanker. Recall that Mario's 10-150-1 breakout game in Week 3 of 2009 came against Dallas with Nicks out. The Cowboys' pass defense has reached a new low, so Manningham is flirting with WR2 value heading to Sunday. ... Time will tell whether Jason Garrett can get the Cowboys to play hard, but the rush defense has already thrown in the towel. Dallas ranked fourth in the league against the run last season and now stands at 24th, allowing 4.4 yards per carry.
Ahmad Bradshaw retook goal-line back duties from
Brandon Jacobs in Week 9, scoring from two and four yards out in the first quarter. Jacobs will stay involved as a change of pace, but Bradshaw is an RB1. Jacobs is no longer a good bet for weekly touchdowns.
The Cowboys' backfield should continue to be avoided against New York's No. 2 run defense, but shakeup is imminent. After getting exposed relentlessly in pass protection last week at Green Bay,
Felix Jones was yanked for a combo of
Marion Barber and
Tashard Choice. Jones wasn't involved in a single Garrett playcall in the final 12 minutes, which isn't good news for his playing time going forward with Garrett now the Cowboys' head coach. It's hard to imagine Jones seeing a big role Sunday. ... It wouldn't be a surprise if by Week 11 we're calling
Tashard Choice the Dallas fantasy back to own. With
Marion Barber averaging 2.97 YPC for the year and Jones' snaps in free fall, Choice has the best shot at feature back duties in the final eight games. Garrett all but confirmed in press conferences this week that significant lineup changes are in the works.
Jon Kitna's targets since replacing
Tony Romo in Week 7:
Jason Witten - 27;
Dez Bryant - 26;
Miles Austin - 23;
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2691"]Roy Williams[/URL] - 10. ... The only Cowboy who's yet to quit, Bryant hauled in a sterling 90 percent of his game-high 10 Week 9 targets and has been a WR1 since Kitna took over. The rookie has three touchdowns in his last three outings, averaging seven grabs for 75 yards per game. Bryant's yardage totals have risen in five straight weeks, and his roll shouldn't slow with Austin drawing the double teams. ... Austin is such a beast after the catch that he's very difficult to bench, but it's natural to have some concern in this one. The Giants held Austin to 38 yards on three grabs three weeks ago. ... Witten, on the other hand, posted a 9/95/1 line in said game, with most of the production coming via Kitna. Witten leads all tight ends in receptions.
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Sunday Night Football[/SIZE]
New England @ Pittsburgh
Tom Brady has been a QB2 since losing Moss, averaging just 208 yards in his last three games and only once throwing more than a single TD pass since Week 3. In a matchup with arguably the NFL's top defense, Brady's foot sprain is enough reason to consider alternatives if you have strong ones. ...
Rob Gronkowski's playing time is headed for decline. A week after struggling as a run blocker and dropping a pass, Gronkowski lost a fumble at the Browns' nine-yard line and was also flagged for a costly third-quarter hold in Cleveland territory with New England in comeback mode. ... One of
Aaron Hernandez's two Week 9 TDs was fluky, coming on a tip off Gronkowski, but the rookie saw a game-high nine targets and is finally a staple of the Pats' red-zone offense. He plays too much and is too explosive to
not be a TE1 consideration every week.
With
Deion Branch off the injury report,
Brandon Tate's snaps will continue to decrease. Tate's 3-101-1 Week 8 line proved a fluke last Sunday, as the second-year wideout managed just one catch for 12 yards on four Week 9 targets. Tate has big-play ability, so he could reappear for a few big games down the stretch. But he won't be consistent, and neither will be the rotating, 31-year-old Branch. ... When
Wes Welker can only managed 36 yards on four catches against the Browns, you know his fantasy value is in the gutter. He may not be a green-light fantasy play the rest of the way. ... Avoid the Patriots' running game against Pittsburgh's No. 1 run defense. Not only is the matchup impossible,
Fred Taylor has a chance to return from turf toe to siphon work from
BenJarvus Green-Ellis. ...
Danny Woodhead's passing-down role is secure, but he's only getting the ball 11 times a game and has one touchdown in his last four.
Rashard Mendenhall enjoyed a midseason "breakout" of sorts at Cincinnati last Monday night, recording his highest yardage total and yards-per-touch average since Week 3. According to
Pro Football Focus, Rocket Rashard generated 66 percent of his yards after contact. The Steelers will have to rely on Mendenhall more heavily going forward due to LT
Max Starks' year-ending neck injury. The Pats have also been obliterated by running games in back-to-back weeks, letting up 218 total yards and two TDs to Minnesota backs in Week 8, before
Peyton Hillis' 220-total yard, two-score thrashing last week. They've plummeted to 21st in the run defense rankings. ...
Heath Miller has cleared 40 yards as many times as he's found the end zone this season: Once.
More Steelers coming soon.
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Monday Night Football[/SIZE]
Philadelphia @ Washington
Michael Vick rejoined the lineup with a bang in Week 9, accounting for a pair of touchdowns and rushing for 74 yards on top of 218 more passing against Indianapolis' top-seven pass defense. Vick is 100 percent, but the best news for Philadelphia's passing game may be on the offensive line. LT
Jason Peters (knee) also returned to action against the Colts, and according to
Pro Football Focus didn't allow a single quarterback pressure, stoning RE
Dwight Freeney for two sack-less tackles. Vick and
DeSean Jackson are going to be stretch-run fantasy juggernauts assuming good health. ... Coming off a 7/109/1 line in Week 9, D-Jax is up to 21 catches for 433 yards and three TDs in Vick's 15 quarters under center. In other words, Jackson has become a safe bet for 100-plus yard games every time both he and Vick step foot onto the playing field.
More Eagles coming soon.
Annually leaky against tight ends, the Eagles have given up five TE touchdowns in their last five games.
Jacob Tamme was the latest to gash Philly, hauling in a game-high 11 balls for 108 yards and the score.
Chris Cooley is currently the No. 8 fantasy tight end, a ranking that should rise on MNF. ... Struggles for Washington's offense are likely to be evident in the deep passing game, however. Coming off their Week 8 bye, the sack- and interception-happy Eagles defense forced
Peyton Manning to play pitch and catch over the middle while abusing his offensive line. Washington's front five is arguably even worse than Indy's (although it's close). Just the No. 21 overall fantasy quarterback,
Donovan McNabb is clearly not a standard league fantasy option.
all the time.
