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Senior Bowl Day Three Recap
When analyzing draft prospects, one of the most important things to remember is that "it only takes one." Tim Tebow was a second-round quarterback prospect, but it only took one team to take a shot on his upside, intangibles, and character in the first. Richard Quinn was a mid-round prospect, but it only took team to draft him the second.

Now, Josh McDaniels may have two of the most recent and memorable reaches (and a new job because of them), but other teams fall in love as well. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Tyson Alualu, and Tyson Jackson all were intriguing prospects who intrigued one team more than anyone thought possible. When it comes to Jake Locker (QB Washington), Noel Devine (RB West Virginia), and Nate Solder (OT Colorado) among others, they might not impress every team, but just remember: it only takes one.

Five Positives and Negatives From Senior Bowl Practices Day Three:
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1) Bilal Powell (RB Lousiville) is generating some buzz among scouts, media, fans, and teammates. One person referred to him as, "a lot like Michael Turner." Powell's character was described as "More Christian than Tim Tebow." With that kind of athletic and character profile, he's going to rise up draft boards. On the field, Powell took more than one rushing attempt to the house and proved he can handle pass protection.

2) Austin Pettis (WR Boise State is a better all-around receiver than I've given him credit for. He is tough over the middle and has just enough speed to take short routes the distance. He is consistently making plays. Dwayne Harris (WR East Carolina), Titus Young (WR Boise State), and Leonard Hankerson (WR Miami) are all niche wide receivers but have proved this week that they have roles and can help a team. None of them is going to be your number one/X wide receiver, but expect some early pro impact from this group because they all have skills.

3) If you read/hear that Von Miller (OLB/DE Texas A&M) is a liability in coverage, you're getting bad info. Miller greatly improved his coverage skills this year and is showcasing them at the Senior Bowl. He's an every-down linebacker with nearly unlimited upside. He's a top-10 pick for sure, and some believe Miller could go in the top five -- as high as Denver at number two. Likely, he will go lower, but that is the type of week he is having.

4) Gabe Carimi (OT Wisconsin) is having a good week that few are talking about. He's still the same late-first/mid-second guy he's always been, but he's showing the ability to play left tackle as well as taking reps at guard. Derek Sherrod (OT Mississippi State) is who we thought he was. He's not distancing himself from the crowd, but he's clearly the top tackle. DeMarcus Love (OT Arkansas) is playing with a nastiness we didn't see a lot of on tape. He's re-inserting himself into the late-first/early-second conversation.

5) No tight end has blocked better at the second level/in space this week than Lance Kendricks (TE Wisconsin). He simply can't do it "in-line" (that is, block a lineman at the snap), but he's going to help an NFL running back to extra yards. Add that to his impressive pass catching ability, and Kendricks could make some noise in day two of the draft.

1) Allen Bailey (DE/DT Miami) is such a freak athletically that he is a perfect example of the aforementioned "it only takes one" philosophy. However, he just isn't the greatest football player. Bailey doesn't have the violent hands, the bull rush, or the edge rushing ability teams crave. He is a 5-technique and should be drafted right where Kansas City should have drafted Tyson Jackson--in the second round.

2) Mason Foster (LB Washington) and Lawrence Wilson (LB UConn) had tough morning sessions. In individual drills, neither could move as fast or efficiently as Bengals coaches wanted. Players come to Mobile to get coached up by pro staffs, but it's disconcerting when a player needs that much needling. Both showed up a little better in the teamwork portion of practice but grade out as reserves in the NFL.

3) Greg McElroy (QB Alabama) makes a lot of throws one doesn't expect. It's as if he lulls the crowd into low expectations just to exceed them. His biggest con is a lack of ideal arm strength combined with small hands. McElroy rears back and nearly shotputs the ball. Many times it results in an incompletion, but once in a while, it's a touchdown. The best part about McElroy is that he doesn't take stupid chances. He's proved he can make a roster this week, but he's also proved he'll never be a long-term starter in the NFL.

4) James Brewer (OL Indiana) has been beaten every way possible by just about every North defensive lineman. I've seen him bull-rushed into the passer, run around, crossed over inside, and confused at the second level. He's such a physical specimen and has a perfect frame, but he's not making an immediate impact and shouldn't go anywhere near the draft slot old teammate Rodger Saffold did.

5) Courtney Smith (WR South Alabama) was a great redemption story when he was asked to attend as an injury replacement. He's a local kid who has fans watching him in Mobile. After a great first day, he's fallen off the map and has plenty of red flags--character, academics, etc. Early talk was 5th/6th round upside guy. Now, it's not a lock that he'll be drafted.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Super Bowl XLV By Position
The point spread for Super Bowl XLV is 2.5, the slimmest margin in 27 years. The over-under is 44.5. The Packers hold advantages in top-to-bottom talent and roster health. The Steelers counter with Super Bowl resumes and coach Mike Tomlin's 5-1 playoff record.

Let's take a look at each position on both sides.

My prediction is at the end of the column.

Quarterback

Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers
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The NFC's best quarterback with the top all-around skill set regardless of conference, Rodgers has compiled a 23:5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his last 11 games. His 13:3 career postseason ratio is similarly dominant. In this year's playoffs, Rodgers has engineered three straight road wins by a combined score of 90 to 51. If we're strictly talking quarterback play -- not Super Bowl wins and "intangibles" -- Rodgers gets the edge over Ben Roethlisberger.

Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben enters his third Super Bowl with one loss since mid-November and a 10-2 lifetime playoff record. He has three INTs compared to 13 all-purpose TDs in the last ten weeks. What Roethlisberger lacks in flashy passing stats he makes up for in toughness, aggressiveness, and sheer wins. He has a difficult matchup, however, versus a Packers defense that ranked No. 5 against the pass during the regular season and has a league-high 30 interceptions through 19 games.

Edge: Packers

Running Back

Green Bay: James Starks

A sixth-round rookie and regular season non-factor, Starks has emerged as the NFL's playoff rushing leader. A closer look at his per-play production reveals a middling talent. Starks lacks big-play ability (just one run of 20-plus yards on 70 attempts), and is averaging 3.76 yards per postseason carry. While Starks is capable of killing the clock and getting what's blocked, he isn't a difference maker. Starks is also pulled in favor of Brandon Jackson on all passing downs.

Pittsburgh: Rashard Mendenhall

Head to head in terms of position, the running game is an area in which Pittsburgh has a clear advantage over Green Bay. An every-down back unlike Starks, Mendenhall exploded for 121 yards on 27 carries (4.48 average) against the Jets' third-ranked run defense in the divisional round. Whereas the Packers' ground game won't have room to run against Pittsburgh's impenetrable front seven, Mendenhall has the potential to be a deciding factor in Super Bowl XLV.

Edge: Steelers

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Green Bay

No NFL team boasts a more formidable pass catching corps than the Pack, which has produced four wideouts with at least 565 yards. The group is headlined by deep threat Greg Jennings, who ranked fourth in the league in regular season receiving yardage and averaged eight catches for 115.5 yards in playoff wins over Atlanta and Chicago. "Backups" James Jones and Jordy Nelson have traded off heroic performances. Trusty slot receiver Donald Driver rounds out the unit.

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh's wideout corps has received a major late-season boost from explosive rookies Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Their emergence has been timely with 34-year-old Hines Ward slowing down. Ward is still is a devastating downfield run blocker, but hasn't topped 45 receiving yards in seven weeks. Arguably the most dangerous receiver on either side in the Super Bowl, Mike Wallace is the Steelers' deep ball specialist. Tight end Heath Miller is a reliable third-down target.

Edge: Packers

Offensive Line

Green Bay

The Packers are potent in the front five, executing a zone-blocking running scheme and holding top pass rushers Julius Peppers and Trent Cole sack-less in the playoffs. John Abraham did get to Aaron Rodgers once, but that was Abraham's lone tackle of the divisional round. 34-year-old left tackle Chad Clifton still gets it done in pass pro, and rookie right tackle Bryan Bulaga is capable of battling LaMarr Woodley to a draw. Right guard Josh Sitton is Green Bay's finest run blocker.

Pittsburgh

This is Pittsburgh's glaring weakness, particularly if rookie Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey doesn't play. The center's status appears doubtful due to a high sprain and broken bone in his left ankle. If Pouncey is inactive, the Steelers will start four projected backups against Defensive Player of the Year candidate Clay Matthews and company. It's a good thing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is powerful enough to shake off hits, because he's going to take plenty of them.

Edge: Packers

Defensive Line

Green Bay

The Packers and Steelers run 3-4 defenses with three down linemen on first and second down, and four to five rushers in three-point stances in passing situations. The front three is a strength on both sides. Green Bay nose tackle B.J. Raji is on an epic tear with 16 tackles, five sacks, five pass breakups, and an interception return for a touchdown in his last eight games. Left end Ryan Pickett is a space eater, while right end Cullen Jenkins is an underrated pass rusher.

Pittsburgh

The Steelers won't get back rehabbing Pro Bowler Aaron Smith for Super Bowl XLV, but Ziggy Hood has solidified the left end position. Pittsburgh has allowed a league-low 62.1 rushing yards per game since Hood took over, and the 2009 first-round pick has supplemented the pass rush with four sacks in his last six games. Still going strong at age 33, five-time Pro Bowl nose tackle Casey Hampton is a true clogger on run downs. Right end Brett Keisel can collapse the pocket.

Edge: Tie

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Linebacker

Green Bay

The Packers' linebackers aren't as good as Pittsburgh's -- no one's are -- but they're awfully close. Headlined by relentless edge rusher Clay Matthews (17 sacks), the second level of Green Bay's defense is effective both at bringing heat and defending the run. Desmond Bishop is a thumper inside. One mismatch that could prove advantageous to Pittsburgh is if fellow middle 'backer A.J. Hawk gets caught in man coverage against Heath Miller or Hines Ward. Hawk doesn't move well in space.

Pittsburgh

James Harrison has 14 tackles and three sacks in the postseason, which is pretty impressive when you consider the No. 2-seed Steelers have only played two playoff games. Inside 'backers Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior have chipped in 32 more stops, and bookend pass rusher LaMarr Woodley has two quarterback takedowns. Ask any talent evaluator around the league which team's linebacker corps is the best, and it's a safe bet that over 25 would say Pittsburgh.

Edge: Steelers

Defensive Back

Green Bay

The Packers have held No. 1 receivers DeSean Jackson, Roddy White, and Johnny Knox to an unremarkable average of 53.3 yards in three playoff games. They've combined for one touchdown -- by White in divisional-round garbage time. A big reason for that is shutdown corner Tramon Williams. Putting it all together, Green Bay DBs have picked off five postseason passes. There's no liability in this secondary with Sam Shields developing into a ball-hawking complement to Williams, slot corner Charles Woodson, and sticky-fingered safety Nick Collins.

Pittsburgh

Strong safety Troy Polamalu is an All-Pro, but Pittsburgh's secondary is vulnerable otherwise. The cornerbacks rely heavily on front-seven pressure to make their jobs easier, because most of them can't cover. Nos. 2 and 3 corners Bryant McFadden and William Gay are particular liabilities. The Super Bowl will be played indoors, where Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is historically deadly. In 10 career dome games, he averages 265 passing yards with an 18:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 106.4 passer rating. Gay and McFadden must come up with the games of their lives.

Edge: Packers

Placekicker

Green Bay: Mason Crosby

Including the playoffs, Crosby is 24-of-31 on field goal tries with five touchbacks. The strong-legged kicker was perfect indoors during the regular season. Though it's probably slight, Green Bay has the edge here because the Steelers trot out a midseason street free agent at kicker.

Pittsburgh: Shaun Suisham

Suisham went 14-for-15 on regular season field goals after replacing Jeff Reed in Week 11, but is 5-of-9 lifetime in the playoffs. He missed a 43-yard try at the end of the first half of Pittsburgh's divisional-round win over Baltimore. The Steelers hope the Super Bowl isn't decided by kicks.

Edge: Packers

Kick Returner

Green Bay: James Starks

It's safe to say the Packers won't win Super Bowl XLV on kickoff returns. Green Bay has eight returns through three playoff games, and not one has exceeded 20 yards. Doubling as the feature running back, Starks leads the Pack with five postseason returns and is averaging 14 yards per attempt. DBs Charles Woodson and Sam Shields can bring back kickoffs in a pinch.

Pittsburgh: Antonio Brown

Statistics say Pittsburgh has a clear head-to-head advantage in kickoff returners. After averaging 23.4 yards per attempt with an 89-yard touchdown in the regular season, Brown has topped 20 yards on 5-of-7 playoff kick returns. Brown is quicker than Starks with much better long speed.

Edge: Steelers

Punter

Green Bay: Tim Masthay

Masthay's statistical averages aren't overwhelming, but he's gaining steam as one of the NFL's top punters after consistently pinning the Bears deep in the NFC Championship Game. Devin Hester averaged just five yards on three punt returns, and Masthay complemented a 65-yard moonshot with five punts inside the Chicago 20-yard line. During the regular season, over 60 percent of Masthay's punts were either fair caught -- allowing no return -- or landed inside the opposing 20.

Pittsburgh: Jeremy Kapinos

Kapinos was signed off the street in early December after starter Daniel Sepulveda tore his ACL. Ironically the Packers' punter in 2009, the 26-year-old journeyman averaged just 41.1 yards per regular season punt to rank 32nd in the league. His miserable net average of 32.3 ranked 35th.

Edge: Packers

Punt Returner

Green Bay: Tramon Williams

Also a shutdown cornerback defensively, Williams has provided some postseason sparks with three punt returns of eight or more yards. During the regular season, he averaged 8.0 yards per return with three of 20 yards or longer. Williams also ranked fifth in the league in fair catches, however, and fumbled two punts. Ball security in the return game will be crucial for Green Bay.

Pittsburgh: Antwaan Randle El

Randle El used to be one of the NFL's most dangerous returners, but he's lost several steps. The 31-year-old managed an average of 4.0 yards per punt return in the regular season and was more likely to call for a fair catch. Pittsburgh would be better off using Antonio Brown on punts, but Randle El has been special teams coach Al Everest's choice through two playoff games.

Edge: Packers

Head Coach

Green Bay: Mike McCarthy

The offensive-minded McCarthy improved his career playoff record to 4-2 in Green Bay's NFC title game win over Chicago, and his all-time win percentage stands at 60.5. McCarthy lacks his opposing coach's Super Bowl experience, of course, and entering this year's postseason was 1-for-3 in playoff games.

Pittsburgh: Mike Tomlin

A defensive mind, Tomlin is 5-1 lifetime in the playoffs with a Super Bowl win on his resume (SB XLIII). All time, Tomlin has won 64 percent of his games. The 38-year-old Tomlin is the youngest head coach in NFL history to guide his team to two Super Bowl appearances in three years.

Edge: Steelers

Prediction: Packers 27, Steelers 24.

I've been picking Green Bay since May, so now's no time to back down. The loss of Pouncey may prove the difference in the game. The Steelers could probably get away with fill-in Legursky against the Bengals or Browns, but Raji is playing like the best nose tackle in football.
 

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Dynasty Ranks: Quarterbacks
This is the second of Rotoworld's four-part Dynasty ranks series to kick off the fantasy football offseason. The running back ranks ran early in the NFL playoffs, and wide receivers will be up this weekend prior to the Super Bowl. We'll wrap up with tight ends early next week.

Tier One

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Philip Rivers, Chargers
3. Drew Brees, Saints
4. Peyton Manning, Colts
5. Tom Brady, Patriots

Despite the twin concussions in 2010, Rodgers remains at the top of the list due to his talent, age, and weapons. … Rivers owners avoided a pitfall when top-notch playcaller Norv Turner escaped the firing line following a disappointing season. … Brees finished as the No. 3 fantasy QB while playing through a torn MCL. … Manning is a rock with 12 straight top-six fantasy finishes. He has five more of those left. … Brady led the league in TDs for the second time in four years.
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Tier Two

6. Michael Vick, Eagles
7. Tony Romo, Cowboys
8. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

Confession: I own Vick in both of my main Dynasty leagues, and I wouldn't trade him straight-up for any other QB in the league. It's impossible to ignore his risks, though -- injury and otherwise. … Romo has the most talented pair of receivers in the NFL to go with an elite tight end. … Big Ben may be the best QB in the NFL, but that hasn't translated to fantasy dominance.

Tier Three

9. Matt Ryan, Falcons
10. Joe Flacco, Ravens
11. Sam Bradford, Rams
12. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
13. Matt Schaub, Texans
14. Eli Manning, Giants

Ryan has shown steady improvement as a franchise QB, but he desperately needs to add an impact receiver with Tony Gonzalez losing several steps in 2010. … Flacco is the most underappreciated QB in the game, in NFL and Dynasty terms. He had every bit the year that MVP candidate Ryan did and his career is off to a similar promising start. … I pushed Bradford ahead of Freeman when the Rams hired OC Josh McDaniels.

Freeman enjoyed an excellent second season against a soft schedule. Just beware that too many are getting carried away with his fantasy prospects after a five-TD aberration in Week 16 skewed his final numbers. … Schaub has always been a better fantasy than NFL QB, and he spent the majority of the season as a borderline fantasy starter. … Eli is a fine No. 2, but owners are constantly on the lookout for an upgrade.

Tier Four

15. Tim Tebow, Broncos
16. Matthew Stafford, Lions
17. Jay Cutler, Bears
18. Mark Sanchez, Jets
19. Carson Palmer, Bengals

Tebow is another player I own in both of my main Dynasty leagues. I'm treating him as a top-10 QB for the next five years after he closed out the season averaging 28.8 fantasy points in three starts. Again, he's not without risk, however, and I realize my riverboat gambling style isn't for everybody. … Like Tebow, Stafford is a high-ceiling, low-floor Dynasty investment. He could be an impact fantasy QB as soon as 2011 if he stays in one piece for 16 games; that's a big "if."

Cutler has a million-dollar arm, but I've got a good idea about that five-cent head. … Sanchez may have the "it" factor, but he's not accurate enough for consistent fantasy success. … Palmer may be tired of wasting his time with an organization that refuses to commit to winning, but nobody out-stubborns Bengals owner Mike Brown. The larger problem is that Palmer "pretty much failed every test" in 2010 and is "more the problem than the answer."

Tier Five

20. Vince Young, Titans
21. Matt Cassel, Chiefs
22. Kevin Kolb, Eagles
23. Kyle Orton, Broncos
24. Colt McCoy, Browns
25. David Garrard, Jaguars
26. Donovan McNabb, Redskins

Young's intangibles are a mess, but there's no question that the Titans have been a much better team with him in the lineup. He wouldn't be the first QB to go from the outhouse to the penthouse. … Cassel is my No. 1 "sell" of the offseason. His impressive 2010 season came against the softest pass defense schedule any of us have ever seen. … Kolb's numbers in 19 career games: 60.8 completion rate, 11:14 TD-to-INT ratio, 6.5 YPA, and 73.2 rating. For comparison's sake, those numbers are down from Chad Henne's rate stats across the board.

Orton is going to miss Josh McDaniels dearly. Owners should hope for a trade to Arizona. … Despite a late-season funk, McCoy still exceeded expectations as a rookie. … Garrard may be a fine Dynasty No. 2, but he lacks long-term job stability. … McNabb would fare much better in Minnesota than he did in D.C.

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Tier Six

27. Jason Campbell, Raiders
28. Chad Henne, Dolphins
29. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
30. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills

Campbell's play picked up at the end of last season, and the Raiders offense is on the rise with Hue Jackson. He's still a No. 2 in a best-case scenario. … Henne is a turnover-prone check-down artist, the worst of both worlds. … Hasselbeck's playoff performance proves he can still play. A significant boost in surrounding talent would do wonders for his production. … Someone needs to tell Chan Gailey that Fitzpatrick is stretched as a starter. That someone is GM Buddy Nix, leading up to this year's draft.

Tier Seven

31. Marc Bulger, Ravens
32. Dennis Dixon, Steelers
33. Matt Flynn, Packers
34. Josh Johnson, Buccaneers
35. Alex Smith, 49ers
36. Rex Grossman, Redskins

Bulger enters the offseason as a flier on the chance that he takes over the Cardinals' offense. … Dixon's body won't hold up, but it would be interesting to see what he could do if given the opportunity to compete for a starting job. … Flynn is overvalued around the league right now, but there's no debating the fact that he far outpaced expectations in his one fill-in start at New England. … New 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh coached Josh Johnson at San Diego State. Just sayin'. … Smith was a turnover-prone checkdown artist long before Henne. … Grossman could enter the 2011 season as the Redskins' starter, a fitting statement on the Daniel Snyder era.

Tier Eight

37. Seneca Wallace, Browns
38. Jimmy Clausen, Panthers
39. Charlie Whitehurst, Seahawks
40. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
41. Shaun Hill, Lions
42. Caleb Hanie, Bears
43. Billy Volek, Chargers
44. Bruce Gradkowski, Raiders
45. Drew Stanton, Lions
46. Stephen McGee, Cowboys
47. Joe Webb, Vikings
48. Tyler Thigpen, Dolphins

Clausen gave Todd Collins a run for his money as the worst QB in the league in 2010. He's not the answer in Carolina. … Whitehurst is a long-term backup. … Tarvaris would be an interesting fit in Philly as Vick's backup should the Eagles deal Kolb. … Hill is a must handcuff for Stafford owners. … Hanie showed promise in the NFC Championship game. … Webb is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues, but there's still just a slim chance that he'll play a full season as the Vikes' starter. … After two years in Miami, Thigpen still needs the shotgun spread to be effective.

Tier Nine

49. John Skelton, Cardinals
50. Sage Rosenfels, Giants
51. Matt Leinart, Texans
52. Chad Pennington, Dolphins
53. Jon Kitna, Cowboys
54. Trent Edwards, Jaguars
55. Kerry Collins, Titans
56. Jake Delhomme, Browns
57. Brian Hoyer, Patriots
58. Brady Quinn, Broncos
59. Luke McCown, Jaguars
60. Troy Smith, 49ers

Skelton isn't a viable option to start the season in Arizona. He's not nearly accurate enough. … Pennington can't be counted on for more than a game or two. … Could someone please tip off the NFL's color analysts as to Collins' actual value to a team? He sports a 2-11 record the past two years versus 12-7 for Vince Young. He's basically Derek Anderson at this point in his career.

Tier Ten

61. Chase Daniel, Saints
62. Nate Davis, Seahawks
63. Matt Moore, Panthers
64. Byron Leftwich, Steelers
65. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
66. David Carr, 49ers
67. Max Hall, Cardinals
68. Derek Anderson, Cardinals
69. Kellen Clemens, Jets
70. Brian Brohm, Bills
71. Tony Pike, Panthers
72. Rhett Bomar, Vikings
73. Dan Orlovsky, Texans
74. Mike Kafka, Eagles
75. John Beck, Redskins

Daniel showed promise in preseason action last year. … The same could be said for Davis over the past two Augusts. … Leftwich has run out of chances to start. … Croyle was somehow viewed as a possible starter in 2011 before he faceplanted in a spot start against the Chargers. He's always been brutal. … Hall proved to be nothing more than a brittle, pop-gun armed backup. Think Ty Detmer. … Kafka has arm-strength issues of his own.
 

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11 reasons Packers can win
We've taken a look at the 11 reasons the Steelers can win on Sunday. Now it's the Packers turn:

1. Troy Polamalu is not playing like Troy Polamalu

Troy Polamalu last played like a Defensive Player of the Year winner in Week 14 of the regular season. In that game, he re-injured his Achilles while returning an interception for a touchdown. Those kind of big plays have been absent since.

Polamalu missed more tackles than he made against the Ravens in the playoffs. He wasn't a huge factor against the Jets. It's hard to overstate Polamalu's singular importance to the Steelers. He needs to be healthy and back to his special self or Aaron Rodgers could carve Pittsburgh up.

2. Aaron Rodgers can beat good pass coverage

There is no defense for a perfect pass, and Rodgers has the confidence and accuracy to throw the ball into tight windows. Rodgers can throw an over the top fastball as well as pretty touch passes. Over the last three years, his mental game has started to catch up with his physical skills.

Rodgers recognizes blitzes and coverage schemes better than he used to. That leads to smarter decisions and more big plays. There's a reason why the Packers wideouts get so many yards after the catch; Rodgers throws them open with excellent timing. Even when they are well covered.

3. The Packers don't need to run to win

Green Bay got this far without balance. James Starks opened eyes in the Divisional Round, but he hasn't done much since. That's just fine.

The Steelers were historically stingy against the run. They only gave up three yards-per-carry, half a yard better than the rest of the league. Pittsburgh has been even better against the playoffs.

The way to beat Pittsburgh is to throw 40+ times. It's unconventional, but the short passing game can eventually set up the run like it did for New England and New Orleans this year. Packers coach Mike McCarthy understands this well; Aaron Rodgers threw the ball 48 times in Pittsburgh in 2009. That was when Ryan Grant was on the roster.

McCarthy won't waste early downs on runs, and that's the smart way to go against the Steelers.

4. The game is indoors

The Steelers and Packers can both play in the elements, but the indoor conditions in Dallas favor the Packers. The Packers are younger and faster on defense. On offense, Green Bay is more reliant on the precise passing game that a closed roof stadium helps to improve.

The numbers don't lie: The Packers really are more explosive on turf. There's no doubt the Steelers would rather be on a sloppy field.

Many of Aaron Rodgers' best games this year were indoors (Atlanta twice and Minnesota.) Green Bay's ugliest Sunday was also in a dome (Ford Field), so the location isn't everything. But it doesn't hurt.

5. Deep wide receiver crew

The closest thing to a weakness on the Steelers defense: cornerback depth. Ike Taylor does a great job, but Bryant McFadden is a so-so starter at best and he's not healthy. After that, Pittsburgh's depth is shaky.

The Packers have the arsenal of quality route runners out wide that can exploit Pittsburgh by spreading them out. Taylor may slow down Greg Jennings and Donald Driver doesn't have the same quickness he used to.

Don't be surprised if James Jones or Jordy Nelson leads the team in receiving and creates a new Max McGee-like legend. (Without the busted curfew stories.)

6. Better offensive play-caller

Packers coach Mike McCarthy has taken a lot of slings and arrows over the years for his clock management and propensity to lose close games. He deserves a ton of credit for his playcalling, which has been on fire of late.

Few offensive minds are better suited to come up with the right gameplan to attack the Steelers. When Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau throws a few curveballs, McCarthy is one of the best coaches at making adjustments to get his talented players in the right position to succeed.

7. Steelers haven't performed well against elite quarterbacks

Pittsburgh has the best overall defense in the league. You simply can't run on them, and their pass rush is fantastic. That's a deadly combination, and the only way to beat it is with an elite quarterback.

Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez aren't elite quarterbacks. Sorry. I'd argue that Pittsburgh has only faced two top-eight quarterbacks all season: Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

The Steelers went 0-2 in those games. Brady and Brees combined for 655 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. Rodgers is absolutely in the same class as those two champion passers.

8. Green Bay's defensive line can win one-on-one battles

Pittsburgh's offensive line was in trouble even before center Maurice Pouncey injured his ankle. Now backup center Doug Legursky will likely have to handle Green Bay's peaking nose tackle B.J. Raji on the inside. Defensive end Cullen Jenkins has been one of the most underrated lineman in football for years. He showed he's healthy again with a monster performance in the NFC Championship.

The Steelers have no easy solutions to block Green Bay. Both Steelers tackles are backups and often play like it. If Raji and Jenkins win their battles on the inside, Pittsburgh's tackles could get exposed outside. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers will have a lot of options because he should be able to create pressure without having to blitz a lot.

9. Defensive players take turns as stars

Clay Matthews received the Defensive MVP votes. Charles Woodson will get Hall of Fame consideration one day. In the playoffs, however, other Packers defenders have been the stars.

Cornerback Tramon Williams is one of the best at his position. Raji and Jenkins are capable of making huge plays on the defensive line. Erik Walden has been a revelation at linebacker, while Desmond Bishop and A.J. Hawk have proven to be a complementary duo on the inside.

Any Packers defender is liable to step up with a big performance on Super Bowl Sunday, which makes the defense as a whole almost as dangerous as the Green Bay offense.

10. Road warriors travel well

The Packers join the 2005 Steelers team as the only other six seed to make the Super Bowl. That game turned out well for Pittsburgh.

Only three teams in NFL history have won three straight road games to make the Super Bowl: The '85 Patriots, the '05 Steelers, and the '07 Giants. Two won it all.

There's a reason why road warrior teams fare well. Only an exceptional team can survive three straight road tests. The Packers have been playing do-or-die games for five weeks and they won them all.

After three straight road games, a neutral site game should feel like home.

11. They can win any type of game

Despite all the hype, the Packers actually may be underrated heading into the Super Bowl. They haven't trailed by more than seven points all season; they are the first team since the '62 Lions to pull that off.

The Packers didn't really hit their stride until midseason, when they learned how to play without all their injured starters.

Since then, Green Bay has shown they can win defensive struggles: (9-0 over the Jets, 10-3 over the Bears.) They can blow teams out: (45-17 over Giants, 31-3 over Vikings, 48-21 over Falcons.) They can make the plays necessary in the fourth quarter to win: (31-28 over Vikings, 21-16 over Eagles, 21-14 over Bears.)

One thing the Packers haven't done is make a big comeback. History indicates they won't have to.
 

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11 reasons Steelers can win
We almost expect a surprise in the Super Bowl by now.

The Giants knocked off the undefeated Patriots the season before the 9-7 Cardinals had Pittsburgh on the ropes. Despite a great record, the Saints were solid underdogs last year against the Colts.

There will be no upset this year. Packers coach Mike McCarthy is right when he says Green Bay is nobody's underdog. Pittsburgh has the higher seed, more experience, and the best defense in football.

Since we've established both teams could win this year, let's look at how they can do it. First up: 11 reasons why the Steelers can win.

1. They know how to manage their weakness

Throughout the 2008 season, we repeatedly heard that the awful Steelers offensive line would be their downfall. They averaged 28 points-per-game in the playoffs on the way to a Super Bowl title.

This year, the Steelers lost their starting right tackle in the offseason and their starting left tackle in November. Their Pro Bowl center Maurice Pouncey is expected to miss the Sunday's game and the team's blind side replacement, Jonathan Scott, was a reject from Buffalo.

On paper, the Steelers shouldn't be able to survive. But they've made it this far with an offense that has vastly out-produced the '08 squad in every facet. They must be doing something right.

2. No defense for Ben Roethlisberger scrambles

The Steelers have the perfect quarterback to pair with an inconsistent offensive line. The Steelers offense plays its best when Roethlisberger is shaking off defenders.

The Packers defense knows this well. I watched the Packers blow at least five sacks of Roethlisberger when the teams faced off in 2009. Roethlisberger finished with 504 yards passing.

Pittsburgh has built the perfect big-play offense to match Big Ben's improvisational deep ball strengths. He finished first in the NFL in yards-per-completion and third in yards-per-attempt.

3. Speed kills out wide

Roethlisberger has the weapons to go vertical early and often. Mike Wallace may be the fastest receiver in the NFL; a player that's already more dangerous than Santonio Holmes ever was.

Throw in rookies Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, and the Steelers actually have more speed at wide receiver than the Packers. Green Bay's talented cornerbacks will have to get physical with Pittsburgh's youngsters at the line of scrimmage. Even when that happens, Roethlisberger makes cornerbacks cover longer than usual while he's extending plays.

4. They can run on Packers

The dirty secret of the Green Bay defense: They can be vulnerable to powerful running attacks. The problem is that the Packers trail so infrequently that the issue rarely shows up.

Only four teams gave up more yards-per-carry than the Packers. The Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions all wore Green Bay down and racked up big rushing yards by remaining patient.

The Steelers would love to limit the Packers' possessions by going on a long, slow drives like they did to open the game against the Jets. Steelers coordinator Bruce Arians told me that Rashard Mendenhall's AFC Championship performance was his best game as a pro, and the team is eager to see if he builds on it.

Mendenhall is capable of big games and the Packers defense is surprisingly capable of giving them up.

5. They will stay aggressive

These are not the conservative Steelers of the 70's. They understand that Ben Roethlisberger is ultimately their most dangerous offensive weapon and they won't just let their defense carry the entire team.

Before the team's biggest series of the season, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians asked Mike Tomlin what he wanted in the waning moments of the AFC Championship.

"Play to win," Tomlin said.

Tomlin called for five receivers and an empty backfield set on the game's biggest play – a third down. Roethlisberger delivered. Arians' unpredictability passing in obvious running situations should help keep the Packers off balance.

6. The Packers haven't faced many 3-4 defenses

The AFC Final Four was completely filled with 3-4 defenses. In the NFC, the Packers were the only team that runs a 3-4 defense which made the playoffs.

The Packers are relatively inexperienced facing a versatile 3-4 team in game action. They played only two such teams all year: The Dolphins and Jets back in October. The Packers went 1-1 in those games, averaging only 14.5 points.

The Steelers have the best 3-4 defense in football. Green Bay's lack of familiarity facing the scheme could lead to mistakes recognizing pass rushers on Super Bowl Sunday.

7. The linebackers are better

The Packers have a pretty sweet linebacker group, but they can't match Pittsburgh. The Packers have one great pass rusher; the Steelers have two. James Harrison remains one of the most intimidating players in football. Lamarr Woodley is the only player to record a sack in his first six postseason games, with ten sacks over that span.

Woodley and Harrison are the only two Steelers ever to record ten sacks in three consecutive seasons. Lawrence Timmons had his best year on the inside and James Farrior is a coach on the field.

Add it all up, and the Steelers linebackers fit right in with the groups on the Steel Curtain defense.

8. They don't need Aaron Smith back

Steelers defensive end Aaron Smith is one of the best defensive linemen of the last decade, and certainly one of the most underrated. With that said, 2009 first-round pick Ziggy Hood has done a terrific job replacing Smith this season and Casey Hampton remains a force at nose tackle. Brett "The Beard" Keisel completes the rock solid defensive front.

The veteran Steelers defensive line can expertly take up blockers to allow their linebackers to make game-changing plays.

9. They don't have to worry about the Packers running game

Pittsburgh can stop Green Bay's running game without really trying. That will allow Steelers defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau to use extra defensive backs and focus all his efforts on slowing down Aaron Rodgers. The extra numbers will help.

Cornerback Ike Taylor enjoyed a solid season and safety Ryan Clark doesn't get enough credit for his role in making Troy Polamalu great. Still, Pittsburgh's secondary is still the weak spot of the defense overall. With that in mind, it's a major bonus the Steelers don't have to worry about containing the Packers running game.

10. The Packers let teams hang around

In one sense, the Packers overachieved to survive their injuries and make the playoffs. Looking at it another way, they never should have lost six games because they let teams hang around too often.

In losses to the Bears, Redskins, Dolphins, and Patriots, the Packers out-played their opposition and still lost. They dominated the Eagles, but Michael Vick had a chance to win the game on the last possession. Green Bay manhandled the Bears in the NFC Championship, but Caleb freaking Hanie had Chicago in position late to tie the game.

Whether it's mental errors or poor clock management, these talented Packers have a tendency to keep games closer than they should be. That's a dangerous approach when you are facing a team with the fourth quarter pedigree of the Steelers.

11. The Steelers don't lose big games

Pittsburgh is 9-1 in the playoffs since 2005, including two Super Bowl wins. Experience isn't everything, but the experience of winning again and again when it matters most has to mean something.

The Steelers can fall behind like the did against Baltimore, and they believe they will win. They nearly gave up a huge lead to the Jets, and still believed they would win.

Perhaps the Steelers will get the ball late against the Packers after falling behind in the game for the first time. Ben Roethlisberger can look at his teammates and tell them he's got it covered because he's done it all before.
 

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Draft 2011: NFL Mock 1.0
The 2011 draft class is loaded on defense. 18 of the 32 picks in this first-round mock play on that side of the ball, and 26 defenders received strong consideration for day-one picks. Of those 26, 18 were either dominant college pass rushers (e.g. Ryan Kerrigan, Nick Fairley) or flashed that kind of ability (Akeem Ayers, Cameron Jordan).

If your team needs a pocket pusher, you should like this year's crop.

We've got roughly 10 weeks to go before April's NFL draft. As mentioned previously, the draft and events related to the draft are the only offseason activities we know for sure will take place.

Learn to love the draft.

And don't take it personal when the player I "mock" to your favorite team isn't the player you want your team to pick.

1. Carolina Panthers - Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers

Arriving at Clemson as the nation's top recruit, Bowers realized his potential as a junior, leading the NCAA in sacks (15.5), tying for first in tackles for loss (26), and earning the Nagurski Award as college football's top defender. New Panthers coach Ron Rivera is implementing a Tampa-2 defense built on front-four pressure. As 2010 sacks leader Charles Johnson enters free agency and left end Tyler Brayton his age-32 season, Bowers would give Rivera a building block at his scheme's most important position.

2. Denver Broncos - LSU CB Patrick Peterson

Peterson has shed 12 pounds since the college season, vowing to run a sub-4.4 forty at 6'1/210. The Broncos are getting back Elvis Dumervil to reinvigorate their pass rush, but won't re-sign free agent Champ Bailey. For a team that ranked 25th against the pass even before losing its shutdown corner, Peterson is a no-brainer choice as perhaps the draft's most skilled all-around athlete.

3. Buffalo Bills - Auburn QB Cam Newton

Newton scored 51 touchdowns in the SEC and has an accurate, powerful arm. In the NFL, he'll be a run threat similar to Vince Young with strength to shake off rushers like Ben Roethlisberger. Newton's checkered pre-Auburn history and transition from an option to pro-style offense are concerns, but there's not a more talented quarterback in this class. Buffalo is an ideal landing spot with Ryan Fitzpatrick capable of keeping the offense competitive while Newton learns.

4. Cincinnati Bengals - Auburn DT Nick Fairley

Fairley finished the season ranked third in the NCAA in tackles for loss, and his 24 were easily first among interior linemen. (Undersized Memphis DT Frank Trotter's' 16.5 were second.) Fairley has been criticized as a one-year wonder who tends to play high at 6'5/298 and takes plays off, but consistently dominant performances on the national stage for the BCS champs are hard to ignore. In Cincinnati, he'd be an instant upgrade over Tank Johnson at three-technique tackle.

5. Arizona Cardinals - Texas A&M OLB Von Miller

After leading the nation in sacks (17) as a junior, Miller made the surprise decision to stay in school and improve his cover skills. It paid off. Miller exhibited freakish fluidity in his drops during January's Senior Bowl, and no one questions his devastating combination of body lean and burst off the edge. Miller is the top pure pass rusher in the draft, and Arizona's greatest weakness is at outside linebacker with incumbent starters Clark Haggans and Joey Porter both turning 34.

6. Cleveland Browns - Georgia WR A.J. Green

New Cleveland coach Pat Shurmur knows what it's like calling plays without a dominant, No. 1-caliber receiver, and it isn't much fun. A silky smooth deep threat at 6'4/212, Green is NFL-ready after mastering Mark Richt's aggressive pro-style offense to the tune of 15.78 yards per catch and 23 touchdown receptions in 28 college starts. There's not a better wideout in this year's class.

7. San Francisco 49ers - Georgia OLB Justin Houston

Houston isn't considered a top-ten pick yet, but he'll get there after ripping up the Combine. 6-foot-3 and 260 pounds with an incredibly quick first step, Houston terrorized the SEC for 17.5 sacks and 33 tackles for loss in his final two seasons. 49ers OLBs Manny Lawson and Parys Haralson disappointed with 6.5 combined sacks in 2010, and Lawson is a free agent. Houston played both end and linebacker for the Dogs, easing his transition into San Francisco's 3-4.

8. Tennessee Titans - Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert

The arm strength is there, but Gabbert did little vertical passing last season in Mizzou's Mike Leach-like spread. While it may have been partially due to a lack of outside playmakers following Danario Alexander's graduation, Gabbert isn't nearly a finished product or as talented as Newton. Gabbert is also not expected to throw at the Combine, which sends up something of a red flag. Still, owner Bud Adams is intent on finding a franchise QB. The Titans can sign a veteran like Billy Volek or Chad Pennington to warm the seat until Gabbert is ready.

9. Dallas Cowboys - Alabama DE Marcell Dareus

A 6-foot-3, 306-pound bowling ball, Dareus left Alabama with 20 career tackles for loss and 11 sacks as essentially a one-year starter. While not a truly difference-making pass rusher, Dareus possesses rare quickness for a 3-4 end and can crash the pocket as a three-technique tackle on passing downs. Three of Dallas' top four defensive ends are free agents (Marcus Spears, Stephen Bowen, Jason Hatcher), so this is good value and fills a major need.

10. Washington Redskins - Alabama WR Julio Jones

More physical than Green with nearly as much field-stretching ability, Jones started all three years at Alabama after leaving high school as the nation's No. 3 overall recruit. He's dominated every level of football he's ever played. Also a chain mover and devastating blocker, Jones would immediately step in as Washington's No. 1 receiver. Santana Moss turns 32 this summer and is a free agent. Anthony Armstrong can motor downfield, but does little else well.

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11. Houston Texans - Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara

It may seem like overkill for Houston to select a first-round corner for the second straight year, but 2010 20th pick Kareem Jackson looked too stiff in the hips as a rookie and incumbent RCB Glover Quin is better suited to safety -- another area of need. Amukamara is the anti-Jackson as a fluid cover man with speed to run with any wideout. Nose tackle and pass rusher are also must-haves, but the Texans can't afford to keep letting receivers run through their secondary at will.

12. Minnesota Vikings - North Carolina DE Robert Quinn

The NFL Combine will be crucial for Quinn after he missed the entire 2010 season for accepting over $5,000 in gifts from an agent. Certain to rise if he impresses in Indy, Quinn is a physical freak at 6'5/270 who finished second to only Derrick Morgan in 2009 ACC Defensive Player of the Year voting. Quinn reeled off 19 tackles, 11 sacks, and an eye-popping six forced fumbles as a sophomore. Vikings Nos. 2 and 3 ends Ray Edwards and Brian Robison are free agents.

13. Detroit Lions - Colorado LT Nate Solder

Offensive tackles typically go off the board quickly, but the majority of top talents in this year's draft play defense. Solder is the best tackle, and it's an area Lions GM Martin Mayhew intends to upgrade after promising to make Matthew Stafford's protection his foremost offseason priority. A former tight end (four starts as a freshman), Solder is an incredible athlete with a sub-4.9 forty time, less than 7 percent body fat, and 34 ½" arms. His addition would allow Jeff Backus to move to right tackle, where Gosder Cherilus is no longer an option after microfracture surgery.

14. St. Louis Rams - UCLA SLB Akeem Ayers

Finishing third in 2010 Butkus Award voting, Ayers was a defensive disruption waiting to happen at UCLA. The fourth-year junior lived in opposing backfields, accumulating 29.5 career tackles for loss and 14 sacks in 28 career starts, also intercepting six passes. Unlike most 6-foot-4, 255-pound strong-side linebackers, Ayers can cover. No wideouts will be worth the No. 14 pick if Green and Jones are gone, and outside 'backer is arguably St. Louis' bigger need anyway.

15. Miami Dolphins - Alabama RB Mark Ingram

The 2009 Heisman winner's junior-year numbers were down after a left knee scope, but Ingram stayed highly effective with a 5.54 YPC average and career-best 13.43 yards per catch. A tackle-breaking punisher, Ingram is versed in blitz pickup after playing on pass downs in Crimson Tide OC Jim McElwain's pro-style scheme. The Fins' top two rushers are declining free agents, and Ingram fits GM Jeff Ireland's desire for a back who "pass protects and creates yards on his own."

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Colorado CB Jimmy Smith

The Jags have promising talent up front, but they're brutal in the secondary. The Big 12's version of Nnamdi Asomugha, Smith was targeted just 20 times and allowed 11 completions (55 percent) as a senior. Despite not picking off a single pass -- mostly due to the lack of opportunities -- Smith was voted first-team All-Big 12 by the coaches in an obvious acknowledgment of respect. Smith has shutdown corner-caliber ability, and is reported to run in the mid-4.3s at 6'2/205.

17. New England Patriots - Mississippi State OT Derek Sherrod

Pats LT Matt Light regained top form in 2010, but the free agent turns 33 in June, and right tackle Sebastian Vollmer's play stalled in his second season. At 6'6/312 with 35 1/2" arms, 11" catcher mitts, and a mammoth 84" wingspan, Sherrod is built ideally for an NFL tackle. He played on the left side at Mississippi State, but likely could excel as a run-blocking right tackle after dominating in the Bulldogs' smash-mouth offense. They ran it 619 times in 2010, ninth most in the NCAA.

18. San Diego Chargers - Cal DE Cameron Jordan

Jordan has been discussed as a potential top-ten pick, but that's not happening in a draft crop littered with double-digit sack threats. What Jordan lacks in explosiveness he makes up for as a physical run defender. Graduating with 34 tackles for loss in 32 starts, he's also no slouch in penetration. Jordan is an ideal five-technique end and would immediately move into San Diego's starting lineup across from Luis Castillo. Jacques Cesaire and Travis Johnson are free agents.

19. New York Giants - Boston College OT Anthony Castonzo

The G-Men have all kinds of question marks at tackle with injury-prone LT Shawn Andrews due a $3.5M roster bonus and RT Kareem McKenzie entering a contract year at age 32. David Diehl will play left guard after Rich Seubert's "major" knee surgery. Giants assistant OL coach Jack Bicknell coached B.C.'s line in 2007-2008, when Castonzo became the Eagles' first true freshman lineman to start in a decade. It's a much needed youth injection to an aging, banged-up front five.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Purdue DE Ryan Kerrigan

Kerrigan reported to January's Senior Bowl 10 pounds light to increase his value as a potential 3-4 outside 'backer, but he's a 4-3 base end through and through. Playing both sides of the line with a ruthless motor, Kerrigan led the nation in tackles for loss (26) as a senior, tacking on 12.5 sacks to give him 32.5 in his final three seasons. The Bucs have a glaring pass-rush need after finishing last in the NFC in sacks, and the 2010 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year can help immensely.

21. Kansas City Chiefs - Missouri OLB Aldon Smith

A long, explosive athlete at 6'5/260, Smith is another pass rusher who could vault up boards with a big Combine. He's coming off a sluggish redshirt sophomore season, managing 10 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks while missing three games with a broken leg. Smith had 19 TFLs and 11.5 sacks as a freshman. The Chiefs will likely franchise tag free agent Tamba Hali, but can field a truly dominant defense with a legit bookend rusher. Smith is also a local favorite.

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22. Indianapolis Colts - USC OT Tyron Smith

Smith was the Trojans' right tackle for the past two seasons, taking home 2010 Morris Trophy honors as the Pac 10's premier offensive lineman. He was considered the nation's most athletic o-lineman, even more impressive in his movement skills than Solder. Also long armed with a more physical game than you'd expect from a 6-foot-5, 280-pounder, Smith projects to left tackle in the pros. Colts incumbent LT Charlie Johnson is a free agent. (And isn't very good.)

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Miami CB Brandon Harris

Right cornerback became a monster liability during the Eagles' stretch run, and the defense was particularly susceptible to the pass with LCB Asante Samuel missing four of the last six games because of a knee injury. A 32-game starter for the 'Canes, Harris picked off only four passes in his college career but is widely considered the third or fourth best corner prospect in the draft.

24. New Orleans Saints - Wisconsin DE J.J. Watt

The consensus among New Orleans beat writers has the Saints using their first-round pick on a front-seven playmaker. A former starting tight end at Central Michigan, Watt exploded after his transfer to Madison for 36.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks in two seasons. In DC Gregg Williams' 4-3, the 6-foot-6, 292-pound Watt would play left end on early downs and kick inside to tackle in passing situations. Watt has a tireless motor. He also blocked three kicks as a junior.

25. Seattle Seahawks - Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick

Kaepernick bypassed Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, and Andy Dalton as this draft's third best signal caller with a standout Senior Bowl. Talked up by NFL Network's Mike Mayock in particular, Kaepernick is now projected as a "bottom of the first (round)" prospect by SI's Peter King. A four-year starter with off-the-charts athleticism and a cannon arm, Seattle could groom Kaepernick as its franchise quarterback with free agent Matt Hasselbeck likely returning on a short-term deal.

26. Baltimore Ravens - Pittsburgh WR Jonathan Baldwin

Baldwin left Pitt as a third-year junior after averaging 18.26 yards per catch in a conservative, run-first offense. Over the course of Baldwin's career, the Panthers posted a 1,079:1,441 pass-to-run ratio. The Ravens are also historically run-minded on offense, and desperate for a receiver with speed to separate downfield. Listed at 6'5/230, Mayock projects Baldwin to potentially run a sub-4.4 at the Combine. Baldwin would start opposite Anquan Boldin with Derrick Mason as the No. 3.

27. Atlanta Falcons - Boise State WR Titus Young

The receiver run ends with Atlanta, where GM Tom Dimitroff is an admitted "needs" drafter. That isn't to say Young isn't worth a day-one selection. He drew comparisons to DeSean Jackson at the Senior Bowl after averaging 17.11 yards per catch in 2010, 26.87 yards on kick returns with two touchdowns as a junior, and catching 19 TD passes in his final two seasons. With Tony Gonzalez fading, the Falcons are desperate for a vertical weapon to complement Roddy White.

28. New England Patriots - Ohio State DE Cameron Heyward

New England's biggest 2010 weakness was in the secondary, but RCB Leigh Bodden's return will help fix that. Up front, the Pats were wracked with injuries as DEs Ty Warren (hip surgery), Mike Wright (concussion), Myron Pryor (back), and Ron Brace (torn elbow ligament) combined to miss 35 games. Right away, Heyward could step in as the best five-technique end on the roster.

29. Chicago Bears - Wisconsin OT Gabe Carimi

The Bears have considered moving promising right tackle J'Marcus Webb to the left, which may or may not be a good idea. Regardless, the line remains Chicago's primary need area after Jay Cutler took an NFL-high 52 sacks in 2010 and was knocked out of two games, including the most crucial of the season. Carimi is polished in pass pro with exceptional length (35 1/4" arms), and the ultimate "safe" pick. The 2010 Big Ten O-Lineman of the Year started 49 games as a Badger.

30. New York Jets - Iowa DE Christian Ballard

Adrian Clayborn is the most heralded member of an Iowa front seven that will produce as many as five draft picks, but Ballard is the best-looking pro prospect. Whereas Clayborn doesn't have a clear position for the next level, the versatile, 6'4/290-pound Ballard is a picturesque 3-4 defensive end with plenty of pocket-pushing ability. Ballard was among the Senior Bowl's top performers.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Florida OG Mike Pouncey

Mike isn't considered quite as talented as his twin brother, Maurkice, but it's awfully close. And the Steelers already hit a home run once on the Pouncey family. An athletic, powerful, in-line blocker and 46-game college starter, Mike projects to right guard in the NFL after finishing his Florida career at center. Strong-side guard was a trouble spot for Pittsburgh in 2010, with Ramon Foster, Doug Legursky, and Trai Essex all seeing starts at the position.

32. Green Bay Packers - Texas CB Aaron Williams

Green Bay is so loaded with talent that GM Ted Thompson may simply draft the best player available, or even trade down. If "T.T." is targeting a need, cornerback, receiver, and defensive end are his thinnest positions. Sam Shields is a future starter, but Charles Woodson is entering his age-35 season and Green Bay can use help behind those two and Tramon Williams. Also a game-changing special teamer, Williams blocked five career punts to rank second in UT history and covered kickoffs and punts even while starting. He'd be a dime back and gunner off the bat.

Just Missed: UCLA FS Rahim Moore, Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, Notre Dame TE Kyle Rudolph, Maryland WR Torrey Smith, Illinois RB Mikel Leshoure, Iowa DE Adrian Clayborn, Tennessee TE Luke Stocker, Penn State C/G Stefen Wisniewski, Baylor NT Phil Taylor, LSU DT Drake Nevis, Miami (FL) WR Leonard Hankerson, Illinois DT Corey Liuget, USC DT Jurrell Casey, West Virginia FS Robert Sands, Miami DE Allen Bailey, Washington QB Jake Locker
 

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The new Packer Way
It takes time to build the most talented team in the NFL. For Packers G.M. Ted Thompson, it took six seasons of unpopular decisions and steadfast belief in his way of doing things. The new Packer Way wasn't always easy for fans to understand, but they get it now.

The Philosophy

Above all, Ted Thompson is a scout.

"I don't know if there's another general manager that hits the road as much as Ted Thompson does," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said.

While the Packers readied for the Super Bowl in Dallas, Thompson was in Mobile, Alabama scouting the Senior Bowl. Thompson's organizational structure, work ethic, and evaluation system all comes from the man that built the last championship in Green Bay. Thompson says he's just following the blueprint that former Packers G.M. Ron Wolf provided for him back in the 90's when Thompson was cutting his teeth as an evaluator.

"[Wolf] taught me passion, he taught me work ethic, he taught me believing in yourself, to have confidence, to write down what you see, not what other people see, and to trust yourself," Thompson said.

Thompson brought his eye for talent and commitment to drafting and developing players to Seattle after his years in Green Bay. From 2000-2004, he helped Mike Holmgren build the nucleus for their eventual NFC Champion team.

Thompson and Holmgren occasionally clashed because Thompson felt so strongly that he could find better players through the draft than the players Holmgren wanted in free agency.

"I know this: [Thompson] believes in the draft," Holmgren told Green Bay Press Gazette last week. "He believes that's how you build your team, and he's proven it now. If you're in an organization that will give you the time to do that — unfortunately in this day and age some organizations won't give you the time, they want that instant gratification — so a plan like that, you're not allowed to finish it."

This Packers team recalls a different time in the NFL: A time when the nucleus of a squad grew up together, and stayed together. It was a time when teams had the patience to sit a first-round quarterback on the bench for three seasons before playing him.

The Pick

Everything you need to know about Ted Thompson came with his very first draft pick as Packers G.M. Thompson saw value when Aaron Rodgers slid to the No. 24 spot of the 2005 draft. Thompson trusted his eyes, his evaluation.

He didn't think about the sea of Brett Favre jerseys that covered Lambeau Field every Sunday or the talk show radio callers that inevitably thought Thompson lost his mind.

First-round quarterbacks make or break personnel men. If we are going to kill general managers for taking Ryan Leaf or Akili Smith, we should reward them for being right when they make an unpopular decision. Thompson was so right.

"It was very difficult for the organization," Packers President/CEO Mark Murphy said Tuesday regarding the decision to trade Brett Favre and roll with Rodgers in 2008. "You don't have many players that have that kind of impact on an organization that Brett did. It tested us."

Thompson was right even when the Packers didn't immediately win games with Rodgers as a starter. He was right in October of '08, when he handed Rodgers a contract extension that now looks like a bargain. He was even right in '09, when Brett Favre nearly reached the Super Bowl as a member of the hated Vikings.

Murphy said the experience of jettisoning Favre brought the organization's decision makers closer together.

"I think we all knew that we were at a moment in history, that this doesn't happen often. Nobody wants to be known as the one that traded Brett Favre away, but we all had the confidence in Aaron."

If the decision didn't work, Thompson would be out of work by now. Thompson's ability to remain consistent with his beliefs during difficult times may be his defining quality.

"He has the strength to stick to the plan, even through the storms," McCarthy said.

The Packers should enjoy a terrific young nucleus for the next five years, but Rodgers is the one that makes it go. Just four years after the Packers considered sending Rodgers to NFL Europe after his rookie year, Rodgers' mental game has caught up with his incredible physical gifts.

The Packers only have Rodgers because Thompson had the stones to take a quarterback when Green Bay didn't "need" one. Thompson had the patience to let Rodgers develop, the foresight to see Favre's drama on the horizon, and the football smarts to find the right coach to develop the future QB1.

The Hire

Drafting Rodgers in 2005 was controversial. Hiring Mike McCarthy the following year just seemed bizarre.

McCarthy coordinated the absolute worst offense in football in San Francisco when Thompson hired him. McCarthy was part of the brain trust that selected Alex Smith over Rodgers with the No. 1 overall pick, and Smith endured one of the most painful rookie seasons in NFL history.

It's not like McCarthy was a hot coaching name during his run as offensive coordinator in New Orleans from 2000-2004. Those Aaron Brooks-led teams had good, but hardly great offenses that didn't stand out in the box score or the standings.

Thompson looked past the middling results and saw a steadfast nature he could identify with. Thompson liked the toughness inherent in McCarthy's Pittsburgh roots, and the inventive play-calling from a pass-first, West Coast offense.

McCarthy said Thompson was perfect to work with for a first-time head coach.
"You would never want to have a better partner for a GM/head coach relationship, in my opinion, because you know what you get every day," McCarthy said. "That's important. He's very gifted at personnel evaluation. I think that's obvious. He stays true to that."
McCarthy hasn't always been a perfect coach. He can struggle with game management, and used to get too cute with his play-calling. But McCarthy treats his players with fairness and honesty. It's a straight-shooting organization. Like Rodgers, he's improved at his craf immensely over the last year few years and is just now hitting his prime.
Thompson saw something in McCarthy that no one else did in 2006.

The Holdovers

Thompson set a tone early in his run as G.M. by knowing which veterans to release, and who to keep. He let popular, high-priced guard Marco Rivera leave via free agency and cut guard Mike Wahle. The moves were panned locally at the time, but proved wise.

It's not that Thompson hates keeping the right veterans. Donald Driver is entering his 12th season in Green Bay, while left tackle Chad Clifton is entering his eleventh. Thompson cut high-priced offensive line talent back in 2005, but spent big bucks to bring Clifton back this year to protect Aaron Rodgers. Clifton responded with a strong season.

<!--RW-->The Free Agents

The beating heart of the 2010 Packers comes from their draft picks, but a pair of strategic free agent signings early in Thompson's tenure helped build the team's underrated defense.

Thompson gave cornerback Charles Woodson a sizable deal at a time when Woodson's stock was low.

"It was kind of decided for me," Woodson said of his choice to join the Packers. "Nobody wanted me coming out of Oakland. I tried to go to a few other places and tried calling … Some teams returned calls, some didn't."

The contract proved to be a bargain; Woodson was one of the best signings in NFL free agency history. When you consider his five years of service in Green Bay, Woodson has nearly made the same impact as Reggie White with the organization. (Heresy, but it's true.)

Thompson also signed defensive tackle Ryan Pickett to a low-cost deal back in 2006. Like Woodson, Pickett did such a good job that he got another long-term contract in 2010. I can't overstate how rare it is for a veteran to sign two long-term deals with their second team.

While the Packers don't make a habit of pricey free agent signings, Thompson makes his deals count.

The Replacements

Thompson has a gift for beating the bushes for talent that other teams gave up on. He was asked Tuesday if his NFL career as a player who struggled for survival helps him to find diamonds in the rough.

"Who says I struggled," Thompson said to laughter. "You're right. I was a borderline player. I was a special teams player. I was the one of the last people on the 40-man roster. I don't know if that gives you any special insight. I think I have an appreciation for guys that come up the hard way . . . but I like our first-round players too."

Cornerback Tramon Williams is one of those players that came up the hard way. Once cut by the Texans, Williams is now a Pro Bowler that has terrorized opposing quarterbacks in the playoffs. Thompson says an "extraordinary" workout convinced him to sign Williams off the street.

"They just know talent," Williams said Tuesday. "With all the guys they have brought in, I can't see how they didn't make it on other teams."

Thompson and his staff knows what McCarthy's staff is looking for and they find it. With injuries testing the team's depth this year, midseason pickups like defensive tackle Howard Green and Erik Walden have seamlessly joined the team's playoff run.

Walden was cut by the Dolphins in September. Green was cut by the Jets in October. Now should both be starting in the Super Bowl.

The Drafts

Ted Thompson's long-term vision was realized with the 2010 Packers. With six years of Thompson drafts on the books, they have premier talent at all the right positions. They have continuity, versatility, and intelligence. They have the depth to withstand 15 players on injured reserve, including six starters.

BusinessInsider.com noted that only 13% of Green Bay's playoff roster was drafted by another team. That was easily the lowest percentage of the four Conference Championship teams. (For reference, 32% of the Bears roster was drafted elsewhere.)

Thompson has endured plenty of busts over the years, like every talent evaluator. Some of them didn't work because of injuries (Justin Harrell, Terrence Murphy). Some were just duds (Brian Brohm, Abdul Hodge.)

The overall track record, however, is outstanding. Thompson finds quality role players in the middle rounds like receivers James Jones and Jordy Nelson. A relative "miss" at the top of the draft like linebacker A.J. Hawk still contributes plenty.

Then there are the hits: Defensive tackle B.J. Raji, linebacker Clay Matthews, tight end Jermichael Finley, wide receiver Greg Jennings, guard Josh Sitton, safety Nick Collins, tackle Bryan Bulaga, running back James Starks, and of course Aaron Rodgers.

That nucleus, replenished each April, helps explain why so many NFL talent evaluators believe the Packers are the most talented team in the NFL. They could stay that way for a while.

A Green and Gold Future

"Ted built this house. He is responsible for everything that goes on. He is our leader, and he is our point man," coach McCarthy said after the NFC title game win. "He's why this team is in the shape that it's in and why the future looks so bright."

Uncomfortable with the media, Thompson is not a guy that wants to reflect on his success. Or reflect on much of anything. Heck, he's only watched two Super Bowls in a life built around striving to reach the big game as a player, scout, and personnel man.

Super Bowl Sunday isn't here, and Thompson can't help but think about what comes next. Preparations for the NFL Scouting Combine begin two days after the Super Bowl.

"There's a lot of different times you go through and you just kind of try to make honest decisions and look forward to the next stage. Because there's always a next stage," Thompson said Tuesday.

The next stage for the Packers, built from Thompson's vision, may be defending a world championship.
 

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Dynasty Ranks: Wide Receivers
This is the third in Rotoworld's four-part Dynasty ranks series to kick off the fantasy football offseason. Running backs and quarterbacks have already been posted. Tight ends will be up by mid-week.

Tier One

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions
2. Andre Johnson, Texans
3. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
4. Roddy White, Falcons

Megatron is the most dominant talent at his position, and he's got four years on Andre Johnson. He's also proven to be QB-proof, posting top-six fantasy finishes in two of the past three years while catching passes from Daunte Culpepper, Dan Orlovsky, Jon Kitna, Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, and Drew Stanton. … Andre Johnson and Roddy White are looking down the barrel of age 30 this offseason, the point at which wide receiver trade value begins its irreversible decline. … Fitz is the best "buy" of the offseason. His QB situation has nowhere to go but up, especially with the Cardinals realizing they could lose the face of the franchise if they don't fix the problem.

Tier Two

5. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
6. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
7. Miles Austin, Cowboys
8. Mike Wallace, Steelers
9. Greg Jennings, Packers
10. DeSean Jackson, Eagles

I own Bryant in one league, and I wouldn't trade him at age 22 for any other receiver save Calvin Johnson. Though his character issues have been severely overblown, I understand that he's not without risk as a largely unproven commodity. ... Nicks is a textbook nucleus player as a dominant young talent, but he has to prove he can stay healthy after battling wrist, leg, ankle, hamstring, knee, and multiple toe injuries in his first two seasons. … Jon Kitna took a folding chair to Austin's production in the second half of the season. Just remember that Austin posted at least nine catches and 140 yards in three of his first four games with Tony Romo in 2010. … Wallace and Jackson are two of the most uniquely talented players in the NFL. Wallace has already bypassed Hines Ward as Ben Roethlisberger's go-to receiver. Constantly banged up, the slightly built Jackson is the ultimate risk-reward WR1. … Jennings gets a long-term boost in value from Aaron Rodgers, but his production will take a hit with Jermichael Finley's return in 2011.
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Tier Three

11. Kenny Britt, Titans
12. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
13. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
14. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
15. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins
16. Percy Harvin, Vikings
17. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
18. Mike Williams, Buccaneers
19. Reggie Wayne, Colts

Maclin and Britt, both just 22 years old, have already shown flashes of brilliance. The complete package as a big receiver with playmaking ability and possession- receiver skills, Britt needs only a QB upgrade and a dose of maturity to hit the top-10. … V-Jax is one of the dominant talents at the position, but he's lacking stability as a 28-year-old without a 2011 home. … As always, I'd just assume let some other owner deal with the headcase known as Brandon Marshall. … Like Matt Cassel, Bowe benefited from the softest pass defense schedule any of us have every seen. Expect a correction in 2011. … For all of his missed practice time, Harvin has played more games than Hakeem Nicks since they entered the league together. He'd be higher if not for QB questions. … Confidence in Crabtree is waning after a disappointing season, but it has created an opportunity for one of the better "buy low" opportunities of the offseason. … I'm not calling Mike Williams the next Michael Clayton, but long-time Dynasty league owners realize a strong rookie season isn't always followed up by years of dominance. … As a Wayne owner, I am content to sit on him until he reaches the inevitable cliff, because I realize he no longer carries trade value anywhere close to his actual value. His downfield playmaking ability is already slipping away.

Tier Four

20. Sidney Rice, Vikings
21. Austin Collie, Colts
22. Marques Colston, Saints
23. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
24. Santonio Holmes, Jets
25. Wes Welker, Patriots
26. Brandon Lloyd, Broncos
27. Steve Johnson, Bills

With a prodigious catch radius, Rice is among the league's best at coming down with the ball in traffic. On the negative side, two of his past three seasons have been ruined by major injuries, and his QB situation is a mess heading into 2011. … Collie is the most misunderstood receiver in the NFL. Pierre Garcon may have the name, but Collie has the game. If not for the concussion issues, he'd be locked into the top-15. … Colston is set to undergo his fifth and sixth surgeries since March of 2008. The history on his knees is not exactly the blueprint for a long career. … Like several receivers in this tier, Thomas has only to prove that he can shake off the injury bug. Talent isn't a question. … Holmes not only lacks a WR1 ceiling, he's also a major suspension risk. … Welker's value hinges on scoring system. He'd be 10 spots higher on a PPR list. … At this point, Lloyd is a one-year wonder who just lost his play-caller, will likely lose his quarterback, and may also be hearing footsteps from Thomas. I'd be shining up that 2010 first-place WR finish and flipping Lloyd for max value this offseason. … Johnson had been my pick over James Hardy since the two entered the league, but he can't count on a shot-gun heavy offense for the rest of his career. The talent may be real, but the stats were artificially inflated in the Bills' mid-season pointfest.

Tier Five

28. Pierre Garcon, Colts
29. Jordy Nelson, Packers
30. Mario Manningham, Giants
31. Johnny Knox, Bears
32. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
33. Steve Smith, Panthers
34. Braylon Edwards, Jets
35. Steve Smith, Giants
36. Randy Moss, Titans
37. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals

Garcon may not be quite as good as he was hyped to be in 2009, but he's better than he showed while playing through injuries in 2010. … Nelson looks like the natural successor to Donald Driver in Green Bay. In my eyes, he had already passed James Jones before the Packers' playoff run. … Boldin was given the opportunity to take on the No. 1 receiver mantle, and he promptly disappeared for three months. ... I still love Steve Smith South's talent and I will still target him in trades for the right price, but there's no question that inept quarterbacking has killed his value. … The start of Smith North's 2011 season is in jeopardy after undergoing microfracture surgery. Manningham's value would surge if the Giants opt to turn the page on impending free agent Smith. … Knox fell just short of his expected breakout seasons, but 960 yards as a second-year player is nothing to sneeze at. … Though Braylon is coming off a solid if unspectacular season, he's less likely than Santonio Holmes to return to the Jets. … Ochocinco is in decline, but it's not as drastic as it's been portrayed. He can still play; a more consistent QB would help. … Randy Moss is the quintessential dice roll. I wouldn't rule out a 1,250-yard, 12-TD bounce-back season or a second straight disappearance before the end of the line.

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Tier Six

38. Robert Meachem, Saints
39. Jacoby Ford, Raiders
40. Santana Moss, Redskins
41. Danario Alexander, Rams
42. Mike Thomas, Jaguars
43. Malcom Floyd, Chargers
44. Jerome Simpson, Bengals
45. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars
46. Mike Williams, Seahawks
47. James Jones, Packers
48. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers
49. Lance Moore, Saints
50. Jacoby Jones, Texans
51. Lee Evans, Bills

Meachem has the talent to take over as Drew Brees' go-to receiver if Colston's knees fail him down the line. … I was big on Santana Moss going into last season because he was sure to be a target hound for Donovan McNabb. That won't be the case in 2011. … Ford and Alexander both flashed the ability to take over games as a rookie. DX may be the biggest health risk in the NFL at wide receiver, Ford has to stay in the starting lineup. … Floyd's value has always been less about his own talent and more about Vincent Jackson's status. … The late-blooming Simpson must prove that his three-game flurry to end the season was not a fluke. … Sims-Walker is a lower-leg injury waiting to happen. I'm not expecting him back in Jacksonville. … Thomas' ceiling is a No. 2 receiver. … Big Mike Williams' value derives less from his inherent talent and more from a high volume of targets. … For consistency reasons, I prefer Jordy Nelson over James Jones in Green Bay. It's worth noting that Jones is due to hit free agency as well. … Sanders is already eating into Hines Ward's production. … Moore's WR3 value may hinge on re-signing with the Saints. … I'm still a believer in Jacoby Jones. He has the talent to break through as a WR2. … It turns out we were making excuses for Evans all along. Finally given a capable threat on the opposite side, he was thoroughly outplayed by Stevie Johnson.

Tier Seven

52. Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers
53. Golden Tate, Seahawks
54. Davone Bess, Dolphins
55. Jordan Shipley, Bengals
56. Louis Murphy, Raiders
57. Mohamed Massaquoi, Browns
58. Terrell Owens, UFA
59. Steve Breaston, Cardinals
60. Eddie Royal, Broncos
61. Donnie Avery, Rams
62. Mark Clayton, Rams
63. Josh Morgan, 49ers
64. Nate Burleson, Lions
65. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
66. Hines Ward, Steelers
67. Donald Driver, Packers
68. Brandon Tate, Patriots
69. Andre Roberts, Cardinals
70. Early Doucet, Cardinals
71. Jason Hill, Jaguars
72. Deion Branch, Patriots
73. Plaxico Burress, UFA

Benn and Tate are upside roster stashes. … Slot machines Bess and Shipley are both more valuable in PPR leagues. Bess would be at least 20 spots higher in that format. … After hip surgery, Royal threatens to get lost in the mix of strong Denver receivers. … Now 37 and without a team, Owens' value is high only during the mid-season bye-week crunch. … The slightly built Breaston has a hard time staying in one piece, and he rarely finds the end zone. … Driver, Burleson, Cotchery, and Ward are a dime a dozen at this point in their career. … Clayton is a free agent coming off major knee surgery. The Rams may bring him back, but he'll have competition for the top receiver role. … Roberts and Doucet will vie for the starting job opposite Larry Fitzgerald. … Jason Hill is one of my favorite offseason fliers. He's always had the talent, and he could be starting opposite Mike Thomas in 2011. … Plax will play in 2011, but I can't see the Giants bringing him back.

Tier Eight

74. Damian Williams, Titans
75. Eric Decker, Broncos
76. Victor Cruz, Giants
77. Stephen Williams, Cardinals
78. David Gettis, Panthers
79. Antonio Brown, Steelers
80. Laurent Robinson, Rams
81. Taylor Price, Patriots
82. Dexter McCluster, Chiefs
83. Seyi Ajirotutu, Chargers
84. Danny Amendola, Rams
85. Anthony Armstrong, Redskins
86. Roy Williams, Cowboys
87. Brian Hartline, Dolphins
88. Derrick Mason, Ravens
89. Ramses Barden, Giants
90. Chaz Schilens, Raiders
91. Andre Caldwell, Bengals
92. Dezmon Briscoe, Buccaneers
93. Devin Hester, Bears
94. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
95. Antonio Bryant, UFA
96. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
97. Julian Edelman, Patriots
98. Legedu Naanee, Chargers
99. Brandon LaFell, Panthers
100. Bernard Berrian, Vikings

Will Antonio Brown ever be more than a No. 3 receiver in Pittsburgh? … Armstrong and Amendola may have hit their ceilings in 2010. It's hard to imagine Armstrong as a long-time starter, and Amendola's targets are going nowhere but down. … Like Josh Cribbs, McCluster will always be a better NFL than fantasy player. … Ajirotutu needs a lot to fall into place in order to carve out a starting job. … Hartline's ceiling is too low for my taste. … The Hester receiving project hit the skids in the second half of the 2010 season. He's more valuable as a returner. … Damian Williams, Decker, Cruz, Stephen Williams, and Barden still make for interesting wild cards at the end of the roster.
 

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Super Bowl Hangover?
I don't believe in such a thing as a "curse," especially when it comes to football. I do, however, believe in trends.

When a running back rushes 370 times or more in a season, he isn't cursed to have a poor encore -- he is simply worn down and more susceptible to injury. If a player is on the cover of Sports Illustrated, there is no hex on him -- we just notice it more when something bad happens to a star player that was playing well enough to be a cover boy.

The same thing can be said for the idea of a "Super Bowl hangover." All athletes are prone to natural statistical regressions after doing something great.

Ask Chris Johnson about that. After running for 2,006 yards on a 5.6 yards per carry average in 2009, he managed "just" 1,364 rushing yards this season. It isn't necessarily because Johnson didn't run as well, or his 2k season was a fluke. It's just that the multitude of factors that fell into perfect place during his magical campaign are unlikely to ever come together at the same time again.

The same can be said for the extraordinary feats from the 2010 season. It would be unrealistic to think that Jamaal Charles' 6.4 yards per carry can be duplicated, along with Dwayne Bowe's 15 receiving touchdowns. I love both players, but we have to be prepared for a natural statistical regression. Understanding that paying a premium for last year's outlier stats is a bad idea is the first step toward better drafting.

Now, let's get back to that "Super Bowl Hangover." Yes, it is true that teams often come back to earth after Super Bowl runs. This trend especially applies to losers in the big game.

A couple years ago, I looked specifically at how quarterbacks who lost in the Super Bowl fared the following year. The updated results: Over the last 17 years, just two quarterbacks (Jake Delhomme 2004 and Peyton Manning 2010) were better from a fantasy perspective the year after their loss. What does that mean for Ben Roethlisberger? Well, considering he only played in 12 games this season, he is a great bet to improve on this year’s QB17 rank. But is some type of hangover possible? History answers that with an emphatic yes.

Let's look at Super Bowl regression from a team perspective. Here are the total points scored for the last 20 Super Bowl participants. Listed first is the number of points scored in the Super Bowl season. The second number is the encore.

2010 Steelers 375
2011 Steelers ???

2010 Packers 388
2011 Packers ???

2009 Colts 416
2010 Colts 435


2009 Saints 510
2010 Saints 384

2008 Cardinals 427
2009 Cardinals 375

2008 Steelers 347
2009 Steelers 368


2007 Patriots 589
2008 Patriots 410

2007 Giants 373
2008 Giants 427


2006 Bears 427
2007 Bears 334

2006 Colts 427
2007 Colts 450


2005 Seahawks 452
2006 Seahawks 335

2005 Steelers 389
2006 Steelers 353

2004 Eagles 386
2005 Eagles 310

2004 Patriots 437
2005 Patriots 379

2003 Panthers 325
2004 Panthers 355


2003 Patriots 348
2004 Patriots 437


2002 Raiders 450
2003 Raiders 270

2002 Bucs 346
2003 Bucs 301

2001 Rams 503
2002 Rams 316

2001 Patriots 371
2002 Patriots 381


2000 Giants 328
2001 Giants 294

2000 Ravens 333
2001 Ravens 303

The units that improved from a points scored perspective are in bold. As you can see, seven of the 20 Super Bowl participants managed to put up more points the year after playing in the championship. It's not an overwhelming number, but it's a regression worth noting.

The bottom line is that logical thinking suggests an improvement offensively for both Super Bowl participants next year. The Packers will be getting back Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant, while the Steelers will have Roethlisberger for the whole year. But if they don't reach expectations next year, don't blame it on a curse. Many times, these things just happen naturally.
 

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Mayock Updates His Top Fives
NFL Network's Mike Mayock is widely considered the top draft analyst in the business, so we tend to take his opinions seriously. We often do Mayock-related blurbs on the Rotoworld news page.

Mayock released his initial top-fives by position on January 25. He updated them today. Here they are:

Quarterbacks
1. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
2. Jake Locker, Washington
3. Cam Newton, Auburn
4. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
5. Andy Dalton, TCU

Comments: Mayock says he's not done with his quarterback evaluation, but he's made some changes since January. He's now got Dalton alone in the five spot after the Horned Frogs' four-year starter previously shared the position with Ricky Stanzi, Colin Kaepernick, and Pat Devlin. Devlin's stock appears to have plummeted since a poor showing at the East-West Shrine Game. Senior Bowl MVP Christian Ponder remains absent from the list.

Running Backs
1. Mark Ingram, Alabama
2. Mikel Leshoure, Illinois
3. Daniel Thomas, Kansas State
4. Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech
5. Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State

Comments: Mayock relentlessly talked up Kendall Hunter at the Senior Bowl, so it's surprising that the former Oklahoma State Cowboy is no longer even in a tie for the five spot. The biggest notable here, particularly from a fantasy perspective, is Leshoure's jump into the two-hole. Mayock said during Senior Bowl week that he wanted to watch more film on Leshoure. After doing so, Mayock has moved the Illinois product into conversation as a top-40 selection. Ingram remains the consensus top draft-eligible running back.
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Wide Receivers
1. A.J. Green, Georgia
2. Julio Jones, Alabama
3. Titus Young, Boise State
4. Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh
5. Torrey Smith, Maryland

Comments: Smith is the newcomer to the receiver top five, overtaking the old cast of Jerrel Jernigan, Randall Cobb, and Greg Little. Mayock's biggest switch was moving Young past Baldwin into the No. 3 position. Chris Wesseling, dominating the Rotoworld news page Thursday, did a post about Young's rise. Baldwin is a physical freak at 6'5/230 with alleged sub-4.4 speed, but there are concerns about his on-field concentration and off-field decision making.

Tight Ends
1. Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame
2. Lance Kendricks, Wisconsin
3. Luke Stocker, Tennessee
4. D.J. Williams, Arkansas
5. Virgil Green, Nevada

Comments: It's pretty much status quo here, as Mayock's evaluation of Kendricks through Williams did not change after seeing all three of those players on the Senior Bowl practice field. Stocker has drawn comparisons to Jason Witten and Oakland's Zach Miller as a complete tight end. The only change is the dropping out of Tulsa's Charles Clay in favor of Green.

Interior Offensive Line
1. Mike Pouncey, Florida
2. Danny Watkins, Baylor
3. Clint Boling, Georgia
4. John Moffitt, Wisconsin
5. Rodney Hudson, Florida State

Comments: The old list: 1) Pouncey, 2) Stefen Wisniewski, 3) Watkins, 4) Moffitt, 5) Hudson/Will Rackley. Pouncey is still the likeliest guard/center to be drafted in the first round, and Watkins is emerging as the clear-cut second best interior line prospect despite his age (27 next November). The Football Outsiders just kill it in this breakdown of Watkins and Rodney Hudson. Boling is the newcomer, essentially replacing Wisniewski, who's fallen off the list altogether.

Offensive Tackles
1. Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
2. Nate Solder, Colorado
3. Tyron Smith, USC
4. Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
5 (tie). Ben Ijalana, Villanova; Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State

Comments: Mayock has bumped Castonzo into first place ahead of Solder. (Mayock and Castonzo share an alma mater, although we'll assume that's not the reason for the switch.) Castonzo was a four-year starter at B.C. and the Eagles' first offensive lineman in over a decade to start on the offensive line as a true freshman. Smith overtakes Carimi as the more athletic tackle prospect; Carimi is probably ticketed for right tackle in the NFL. Ijalana missed the Senior Bowl due to "double hernia" surgery, but teams must be confident in his health. Wes Bunting of the National Football Post loves Ijalana, FWIW.

Defensive Ends
1. Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
2. J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
3. Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
4. Cameron Jordan, California
5. Robert Quinn, North Carolina

Comments: Watt leaped from No. 5 (tie) among defensive ends into the two-hole after Mayock watched film of Wisconsin's Rose Bowl loss to TCU. Watt did not put up big statistics in that game, so it's a good sign that Mayock was impressed even without the pass rusher racking up sacks and tackles for loss. It's also a good sign for Clayborn that he's still considered a top-three defensive end in this year's draft. He only had 3.5 sacks in 2010. Most observers are holding off on Quinn until he performs at the Combine.

Defensive Tackle
1. Marcell Dareus, Alabama
2. Nick Fairley, Auburn
3. Corey Liuget, Illinois
4. Stephen Paea, Oregon State
5. Jurrell Casey, USC

Comments: In terms of the top of the draft, the most intriguing development is Dareus passing Fairley as the top defensive tackle prospect. Fairley is considered the likely No. 1 pick in many circles. Critics can point to Mayock's ranking of Gerald McCoy over Ndamukong Suh ahead of last year's draft as reason to disagree. Liuget is really picking up steam, as noted in this item on Wednesday's news page.

Outside Linebacker
1. Von Miller, Texas A&M
2. Akeem Ayers, UCLA
3. Justin Houston, Georgia
4. Bruce Carter, North Carolina
5. Chris Carter, Fresno State

Comments: Carter was the 2010 WAC Defensive Player of the Year, but is a 'tweener. He'll appeal to 3-4 teams as an outside rush linebacker. Ayers' best comparison is Karlos Dansby. Houston is sensationally explosive off the edge, though CBS' Rob Rang has questioned his ability to play outside of a 4-3 scheme, calling Houston "one of the more overrated prospects in the draft to this point."

Inside Linebackers
1. Martez Wilson, Illinois
2. Colin McCarthy, Miami (FL)
3. Quan Sturdivant, North Carolina
4. Casey Matthews, Oregon
5. Kelvin Sheppard, LSU

Comments: Hopefully, your team doesn't need an inside linebacker. Because behind Wilson this is a thoroughly unimpressive group.

Cornerbacks
1. Patrick Peterson, LSU
2. Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
3. Aaron Williams, Texas
4. Jimmy Smith, Colorado
5. Brandon Harris, Miami (FL)

Comments: Ranked third in Mayock's previous rankings, Harris is slipping after getting torched by Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd in the Sun Bowl. It's probably deserved, especially considering Floyd only got a third-round grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Committee. Smith, as expected, is rising. Latest word from SI's Tony Pauline has Smith looking "sensational" in pre-Combine workouts.

Safeties
1. Rahim Moore, UCLA
2. Ahmad Black, Florida
3. Marcus Gilchrist, Clemson
4. Quinton Carter, Oklahoma
5. Deunta Williams, North Carolina

Comments: Williams, previously third in Mayock's safety ranks, was recently spotted walking around Chapel Hill with a boot on the foot he fractured in the Tar Heels' bowl game. He seems unlikely to participate in the Combine. Robert Sands and Will Hill have vanished from the list, replaced by Gilchrist and Carter.
 

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Dynasty Ranks: Tight Ends
This is the fourth in Rotoworld's four-part Dynasty ranks series to kick off the fantasy football offseason. Running backs and quarterbacks and wide receivers have already been posted.

Tier One

1. Jermichael Finley, Packers
2. Antonio Gates, Chargers
3. Vernon Davis, 49ers
4. Jason Witten, Cowboys
5. Dallas Clark, Colts

I'm tempted to leave Gates at No. 1, but he's heading into his age-31 season. Would you rather have a shot at 3-4 dominant seasons with Gates or a shot at 8-10 with Finley catching passes from Aaron Rodgers? I'll roll the dice with Finley. … Davis has finished first and third in fantasy points the past two seasons. He's as talented as any tight end in the league, but there's uncertainty heading into 2011 with a new offense and a question mark at QB. … In 11 games with Jon Kitna and Stephen McGee, Witten averaged 6.5 receptions, 66.5 yards, 0.73 TDs, and 11.0 fantasy points. In five games with Tony Romo, Witten averaged 4.6 receptions, 54 yards, 0.2 TDs, and 6.6 fantasy points. … Clark turns 32 next season, but he remains one of a handful of weekly difference-makers at the position.

Tier Two

6. Zach Miller, Raiders
7. Jimmy Graham, Saints
8. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
9. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
10. Owen Daniels, Texans
11. Dustin Keller, Jets
12. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars

This tier gave me more trouble than the rest combined. There are only a half-dozen sure-fire plug 'n' play tight ends heading into the 2011 season. Isn't it better to play a young lottery ticket like Hernandez, Gronkowski, or Graham, hoping they develop into a tier one difference-maker? … An interesting note: Miller has four years under his belt, and he's still just a year older than Jimmy Graham. If not for a painful plantar faschia injury, he would have finished as a top-five tight end in 2010. … The late-season fade obscures the fact that Hernandez exceeded expectations with a 45/563/6 line as the youngest player in the NFL. … Gronkowski looks like a young Todd Heap as Tom Brady's favorite red-zone weapon. … Expect the freakishly athletic Graham to play the same role for Drew Brees. … Keller's fast start last season hints at his potential, but consistency remains elusive. … Daniels recaptured his 2007-09 form over the final four weeks of the season, leading all tight ends in targets while averaging 5.5 receptions and 68 yards. Coach Gary Kubiak made it clear that re-signing Daniels is a high priority for the Texans this offseason. … Lewis is underrated as an NFL tight end, but he's going to be overvalued as a fantasy property coming off a 10-TD season.

Tier Three

13. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
14. Jared Cook, Titans
15. Chris Cooley, Redskins
16. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
17. Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers
18. Brent Celek, Eagles
19. Heath Miller, Steelers
20. Greg Olsen, Bears

In 10 games started by Shaun Hill, Pettigrew averaged 5.6 receptions and 61.5 yards. In three games started by Matthew Stafford, Pettigrew averaged 2.0 receptions and 10.7 yards. … The Titans turned over the tight end position to Cook late in the season, and he responded by finishing 10th in fantasy points over the final five weeks and sixth in the final three weeks. He's a strong breakout candidate for 2011. … Gresham benefited from Carson Palmer's checkdown tendencies, but the majority of his rookie-year production came in garbage time with the Bengals in hurry-up mode. … The final numbers of Cooley and Winslow look decent, but fantasy owners spent the entire 2010 season looking for superior options at the position. Winslow, in particular, was boosted by a Week 16 outlier. … Celek is an interesting buy coming off a down season, but he's not going to reach the heights of 2009 with Michael Vick at QB. … Miller has the game to bounce back to top-10 production, but his fantasy production rests on the Steelers upgrading the pass blocking. … The Bears' surprisingly successful season saved Mike Martz's job, effectively killing Olsen's 2011 value.

Tier Four

21. Todd Heap, Ravens
22. Fred Davis, Redskins
23. Tony Moeaki, Chiefs
24. Ben Watson, Browns
25. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
26. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
27. Kevin Boss, Giants
28. John Carlson, Seahawks

Heap is the same age as Antonio Gates, and he proved in 2010 that he has plenty of game left. His 10-catch, 108-yard effort in the playoffs was one of the most impressive tight end games of the season. … Davis is entering a contract year, but his 2012 freedom hinges on the next CBA. … Moeaki showed plenty of promise as a rookie, but he's injury-prone with a relatively low fantasy ceiling. … Gonzalez has lost any semblance of playmaking ability at age 35. … Watson's 68/763/3 line was good for a career year, but he was a maddening fantasy play all year. … Shiancoe's value has plummeted with Brett Favre out of the picture. … Boss is mediocrity personified. … Carlson could end up losing snaps to Cameron Morrah if he doesn't snap out of his year-and-a-half tailspin.

Tier Five

29. Martellus Bennett, Cowboys
30. Ed Dickson, Ravens
31. Tony Scheffler, Lions
32. Jacob Tamme, Colts
33. Jeremy Shockey, Saints
34. Cameron Morrah, Seahawks
35. James Casey, Texans
36. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins
37. Joel Dreessen, Texans

Bennett is due to hit free agency after next season. … Dickson looks like the successor to Heap. … Scheffler was outplayed by Pettigrew. … Unless you're into handcuffing tight ends (I won't judge you), Tamme is practically valueless with Dallas Clark signed through 2013. … Shockey is about to take a backseat to Jimmy Graham. … Morrah can't block a lick, but his speed is intriguing as a "move" tight end. … Casey has been broken in slowly, but he still has a chance to be the tight end of the future in Houston. … About those tight end handcuffs, Dreessen may enter the season as the starter if Daniels gets away. … Fasano is a poor man's Kevin Boss.

Tier Six

38. Fendi Onobun, Rams
39. Gary Barnidge, Panthers
40. Evan Moore, Browns
41. Zach Miller, Jaguars
42. Michael Hoomanawanui, Rams
43. Shawn Nelson, Bills
44. Bo Scaife, UFA
45. Andrew Quarless, Packers
46. John Phillips, Cowboys
47. Dennis Pitta, Ravens
48. Chase Coffman, Bengals
49. Clay Harbor, Eagles
50. Travis Beckum, Giants

Onobun remains a project, but his measurables are off the charts. … Hoomanawanui's pass-catching ability is better than advertised, but his fantasy potential is capped by Josh McDaniels' offense. … Barnidge, Moore, and Miller are essentially souped-up wide receivers with impressive pass-catching ability, but they don't block well enough for consistent snaps. … Nelson still has his Dynasty league true believers, but he done nothing but miss games and underwhelm onlookers in two years. … Scaife is done as a fantasy factor. … Quarless is blocked by Jermichael Finley. … Phillips was coming on as an interesting backup before suffering a torn ACL last summer
 

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