Matchups: The Seyi-Hey Kid
Four years ago, Gregg Rosenthal granted me the privilege of leading Rotoworld.com's NFL Draft coverage. The draft is my focus during the NFL postseason, which coincides with a number of pre-draft all-star games. Each year, a few under-the-radar draft-eligibles stand out at the events, which pit top college seniors against one another. It's an opportunity for players who may not have been featured in their college's offense or defense to show NFL scouts that they can play.
Last winter, Seyi Ajirotutu was among the players who stood out.
A 6-foot-3, 211-pound deep threat from Fresno State, Ajirotutu led the Bulldogs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns as a senior. He earned second-team All-WAC honors despite playing on a run-dominated team that featured NCAA rushing leader Ryan Mathews. Coach Pat Hill's club finished the season with a 555-to-321 run-to-pass ratio. Ajirotutu played in a pro-style offense, learning to run pro-style routes and earning a reputation for fearlessness over the middle.
It was at January's East-West Shrine Game, however, that Ajirotutu really generated buzz. Ex-NFL head coach Marty Schottenheimer coached the West squad and had this to say about the field-stretching wideout:
"He reminds me a lot of Vincent Jackson or Malcom Floyd in San Diego. He is a big kid and can run like the wind. I've been very impressed by him."
On the Shrine Game practice field, Ajirotutu consistently dominated the all-star events' most highly-touted defensive backs. He ran a relatively pedestrian 4.53 forty in Indianapolis three months later, however, and was not selected in April's draft.
Ironically in light of Schottenheimer's comments, Ajirotutu caught on with the Chargers as a priority free agent. He convincingly beat out Jeremy Williams, Ernest Smith, and Gary Banks in training camp for a practice squad spot. On October 23, Ajirotutu earned a promotion to the 53-man roster. He played 13 snaps in Week 7, catching each of his two targets for 26 yards. Coach Norv Turner rewarded Ajirotutu's efficient performance with 48 snaps in Week 8, and he responded with three catches for 48 yards to lead all Chargers wide receivers against Tennessee.
His playing time and production swiftly on the rise, Ajirotutu is in line for a season-high workload in Week 9. Philip Rivers is a virtual shoe-in for 300-plus yards against Houston's last-ranked pass defense. Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee will both be inactive with hamstring injuries. Antonio Gates has a torn plantar fascia, and will be limited in the questionable-to-doubtful event that he plays. Craig Davis is on injured reserve, and Vincent Jackson is ineligible until Week 12.
Patrick Crayton and Ajirotutu will be Rivers' primary receivers on Sunday.
Undoubtedly, starting Ajirotutu in a fantasy league requires a leap of faith. He's an undrafted rookie with two career appearances. You're not going to use him over proven options. But with a major role in the NFL's top-ranked passing offense, facing the NFL's worst pass defense, Ajirotutu should appeal to fantasy owners in need of a high-upside bye-week replacement.
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NY Jets @ Detroit
The Lions return from a dominant offensive effort in which they poured 37 points on the Redskins. Matthew Stafford made it through his first full game, throwing for four scores and 212 yards on 45 attempts. The Jets' pass defense presents a tough matchup with Darrelle Revis healthy, but no team in the NFL throws as often as Detroit. While Stafford is a low-end QB1 play, Calvin Johnson can't be stopped. He's topped 100 yards in two straight games and scored a mind-blowing seven TDs in his last four. He's the No. 3 receiver in fantasy. ... With Stafford and Megatron firing on all cylinders, Nate Burleson managed just 47 yards in his return to a supporting cast role against Washington. He'll see quite a bit of Jets CB Antonio Cromartie Sunday, and is a poor WR3 risk.
Detroit emerged from its Week 7 bye with a backfield committee. Jahvid Best saw the game's first five touches, but generated just seven yards on four carries before Kevin Smith took over on the third possession. While Best finished with 17 touches to Smith's 14, the latter led the Lions in rushing. Smith (knee) may not play against New York, but this is a "wait-and-see" week for Best. The Jets rank fourth against the run, have allowed two rushing TDs all year, and only the Steelers give up fewer yards per carry (3.4). ... Stafford's return immediately sapped the value of Detroit's tight end duo. In Week 8 Stafford targeted Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler a combined six times (for two completions and eight yards), compared to 29 targets to wideouts (17 completions). The aggressive Stafford has never been a fan of throwing to tight ends, dating back to Georgia.
Perhaps it's time to take the Lions' defense seriously. Jim Schwartz's unit hasn't let a quarterback top 210 yards since Week 2 (Michael Vick), ranks sixth in sacks, and has been surprisingly stingy against long completions. The Jets' passing offense, meanwhile, is reverting to its struggles of August and September. Mark Sanchez has one touchdown pass since Week 4, compiling a 1:4 TD-to-INT ratio during that span and completing an especially dreadful 50.6 percent of his throws since Week 2. He isn't a fantasy option, and threatens to bring his pass catchers down with him in Week 9. ... Santonio Holmes is the team's best receiver, yet is struggling just to play 50 percent of the snaps and has failed to top 47 receiving yards in three games as a Jet. His breakout week is coming, but Holmes is tough to count on when he's playing a limited role and isn't producing.
Jerricho Cotchery is seeing the most playing time in New York's receiver corps, but is averaging 10.1 yards a catch with one touchdown. He has very little upside. ... Braylon Edwards' yardage totals have dropped in five straight weeks. He's never a bad bet to score, but is merely a low-end WR3. ... Dustin Keller has slowed down considerably, failing to find pay dirt since Week 4. He still ranks fourth among fantasy tight ends, however. ... With the passing attack struggling, it's only sensible for the Jets to resume leaning on their ground game. LaDainian Tomlinson has at least 21 touches in three of his last four games. If OC Brian Schottenheimer is smart, he'll make sure L.T. and Shonn Greene are the focal points of his Week 9 game plan. Detroit ranks 27th versus the run, serves up 4.86 yards per carry, and has given up the third most rushing TDs in football.
Miami @ Baltimore
Brandon Marshall is officially having a Moss-Welkerian effect on Davone Bess. Though Bess' three-week scoring streak was snapped last Sunday, the slot receiver racked up seven more catches and has hauled in fewer than five just once all season. He's one of the better WR3s going in PPR, and worth plenty of consideration for non-PPR owners searching for bye-week alternatives. ... Marshall has been impressively consistent this year in terms of catch and yardage totals, but has scored one touchdown. The Fins' "red-zone woes" came into focus in Miami this week, and when that happens coaching staffs often react by force-feeding. Look for plenty of targets for Marshall when Dan Henning's offense gets into scoring position. The Ravens' No. 9 pass defense ranking looks swell on paper, but it was torched for 382 yards and four touchdowns by Ryan Fitzpatrick in its last game and doesn't have a corner capable of shutting down Marshall.
Ronnie Brown continues to get the ball more than Ricky Williams (Ronnie had 17 touches compared to Ricky's 10 in Week 8), but the Dolphins' backfield has become an unreliable source of fantasy value. While Baltimore's No. 17 run defense doesn't pose matchup problems like it used to, neither Brown nor Williams ranks better than 31st in running back fantasy scoring. Williams also got the game-sealing, fourth-quarter goal-line carry at Cincinnati last week, executing from a yard out. Neither player is appealing as more than a flex play at Baltimore.
Ray Rice has been disappointing, ranking 19th in fantasy points at his position and failing to find the end zone in 6-of-7 games. OC Cam Cameron's ability to game plan is a strength, however, and he'll rebound with a decisive approach after seeing his team not take the Bills seriously prior to Baltimore's Week 8 bye, nearly losing in a let-down game. The division of touches was Rice 17, Willis McGahee 12 against Buffalo. A more lopsided distribution in Rice's favor is likely, as the Ravens' feature back had the off week to heal his ankle and knee injuries. Rice isn't on the injury report for the first time since Week 2. ... McGahee is bench material. Against the Bills in Week 7, the Ravens did him a favor with 12 touches and a third-quarter goal-line carry after being unable to deal McGahee prior to the trade deadline. In Week 6, he didn't play a solitary snap.
If averaging 51 yards per game wasn't enough for you to sit him, Derrick Mason has a broken right pinkie finger and a sprained ankle. He's someone over whom I'd use Ajirotutu. ... Throw out a one-catch, eight-yard shutdown by Champ Bailey in Week 5 and Anquan Boldin is on pace for a 99/1,360/14 season. During his last two years in Arizona, the Pahokee (FL) native all but begged for a trade to Miami. He'll look to make the Dolphins pay after they chose Marshall instead. ... No tight end has topped 33 yards against the Fins since Week 3. Todd Heap isn't an option. ... With RCB Sean Smith's snaps increasing, Miami's secondary looks more formidable. Carson Palmer entered Week 8 against them with at least 371 yards in two of his last three games. He emerged with 156. Joe Flacco is better than Palmer, but expectations should be limited.
New England @ Cleveland
Tom Brady has not faced a pass defense ranked worse than 20th all year, which in part explains his relatively disappointing No. 10 rank among fantasy quarterbacks. The Browns, by far, offer his best matchup to date. The No. 26 overall pass defense, Cleveland lets up nearly two TD passes a game and has just 13 sacks. To whom Brady's passes will go is a conundrum, but he'll have a clean pocket from which to pick apart the leaky Browns. ... Brandon Tate busted loose for 101 yards and a score on three catches in Week 8, but ultimately saw just four targets and did the damage against hapless Vikings RCB Asher Allen. Browns RCB Sheldon Brown is a much surer tackler, and with Deion Branch (hamstring) getting healthier, Tate's snaps will decline. He's an extremely risky start. ... Branch hurts Tate, but is an even worse bet on his own. He's still not 100 percent and has combined for a scoreless 60 yards on five receptions in his last two games.
Aaron Hernandez saw just three Week 8 targets and has zero TDs on the season, but will give Cleveland matchup problems. They've not faced a tight end like Hernandez (essentially a slot receiver) all year. Hernandez may also benefit from reduced playing time for Rob Gronkowski. According to Pro Football Focus, "Gronk" struggled as a run blocker and dropped a pass last week. ... Wes Welker's production has fallen in each game since the Randy Moss trade, but he needs to stay in lineups because of the matchup. ... Cleveland's run defense has been a Jekyll and Hyde unit, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis appears to have taken a fairly commanding lead over Danny Woodhead in the Patriots' backfield. In their last four games, "Law Firm" has 55 touches and five touchdowns to Woodhead's 47 and two. In Week 8, Green-Ellis totaled 123 yards on 18 touches while Woodhead had 58 on 11. Green-Ellis is a worthwhile RB2 against the Browns.
Rookie Colt McCoy will make a third straight start, but the Browns aren't inclined to let him attempt many passes. Despite a 69.7 completion rate and an 8.5 YPA in McCoy's Week 6 debut, the coaching staff reeled back its game plan the following week, relying on special teams, trick plays, and Peyton Hillis. McCoy threw just 16 times, completing nine of them for 74 yards. Mohamed Massaquoi is back from his concussion, but far from a fantasy option. ... Ben Watson is the only member of this passing game worth a serious look. He ranks 12th in fantasy scoring among tight ends, and New England surrenders the fifth most fantasy points to Watson's position. Tight ends are going down across the league at a rapid rate, so Watson should appeal to desperate owners.
Bill Belichick has mastered the art of taking away opponents' strengths, so it's reasonable to be concerned about Hillis this week. The Pats won't be tempted to double team any Browns pass catcher, and stopping Hillis will be their primary focus. He's near-impossible to bench, however, when Hillis ranks No. 8 among fantasy running backs, is off the injury report for the first time in a month after a bye week to recuperate, and averages 19 touches for 94 yards and a touchdown per game. While New England boasts a top-11 run defense that permits just 3.9 yards per carry, Hillis is such a versatile weapon with such a good line that he's a must-start with six teams on bye.
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San Diego @ Houston
With November underway, owners can use domed games as tiebreakers for start 'em/sit 'ems. This one will be played beneath Reliant Stadium's enclosed roof, and is an ideal target for bye-week crunches. ... Philip Rivers is on pace for 5,298 passing yards, which would shatter Dan Marino's 26-year record of 5,084. With Vincent Jackson coming back, Rivers has a better than realistic chance to make it happen. You might want to start him against the NFL's No. 32 pass defense. ... Rivers threatens to be without Antonio Gates, however. Previously dealing with toe and ankle injuries to his left foot, Gates tore the plantar fascia on his right foot late in last week's win over the Titans. The Chargers have a Week 10 bye, so they'd be smarter to let him sit out the next two weeks rather than push Gates through an extremely painful injury. ... The Texans are vulnerable to tight ends, but Randy McMichael isn't a fantasy option. The dead-legged 31-year-old doesn't have a catch for longer than four yards since Week 3 and would rotate with Kris Wilson if Gates sits.
Patrick Crayton managed just four catches for 46 yards against an underrated Titans secondary in Week 8. He's averaging six grabs for 82 yards a game since Malcom Floyd's hamstring injury, however, and will face off with burnable rookie CB Kareem Jackson for most of this one. ... As explained in this column's intro, Seyi Ajirotutu is the next best bet in San Diego's pass-catching corps. Another feather in Ajirotutu's cap: Vegas projects Texans-Chargers to be Week 9's highest-scoring game. ... In Week 8, Ryan Mathews played more snaps than any other Bolts back for the first time all year. Mike Tolbert led San Diego in rushing, but Mathews paced the group in touches (18), scored his first touchdown since Week 4, and would've gotten the ball even more had he not temporarily left with a third-quarter facial laceration. With a little luck, Mathews will realize his potential one of these weeks. ... Tolbert got a bump in snaps and touches due to Mathews' injury, but will resume backseat/goal-line option status at Houston. Keep him reserved.
The Chargers don't play matchup-based coverage, so RCB Antoine Cason will be on Texans LWR Andre Johnson for most of Sunday. Cason will have safety help from Eric Weddle, but it hasn't mattered lately. In his past three games, Cason has surrendered a 38-yard TD to Danario Alexander and a 71-yard scoring bomb to Nate Washington. A.J.'s ankle injury won't keep him out. ... Kevin Walter was on the field for the first snap of Houston's Week 8 loss to the Colts, but rotated with Jacoby Jones. They ultimately canceled each other out, each seeing five targets. It's a situation to avoid against shutdown LCB Quentin Jammer and San Diego's No. 1 pass defense.
Owen Daniels was even quieter at Indianapolis, seeing three targets and catching one for eight yards. For a player with numerous health concerns, more consistent production is required before Daniels is counted on in fantasy. ... In an apparent effort to jump-start Matt Schaub, Texans coach Gary Kubiak came out throwing against the Colts. The results were disastrous, as an offensive line that dominates in run blocking but struggles to pass protect was exposed by Dwight Freeney and Clint Session. Schaub ranks 17th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. ... Look for Kubiak to resume maximizing his strengths against a Chargers team more susceptible to the run than the pass. A true every-down back, Arian Foster still found a way to rack up 167 total yards and a touchdown against Indy despite the pass-first game plan. He's the No. 7 player in all of fantasy.
Chicago @ Buffalo
The Week 9 slate includes five indoor games, and this is one of them. Toronto's Rogers Centre (formerly "Skydome") will have its retractable roof closed, which is good news for passing on both sides. Chicago Tribune Bears beat reporter Brad Biggs this week described the matchup with Buffalo as "a tremendous opportunity" for Jay Cutler and Mike Martz. Coming off a much-needed bye, the interception- and sack-prone Bears face a Bills team that ranks dead last in INTs (1) and has the NFL's fifth-fewest sacks (11). Opposing quarterbacks have combined for 110.0 rating against Buffalo, assisted substantially by a 15:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio allowed. If there was ever a time to use Cutler, this is it. Quietly, this one projects as a high-scoring affair.
With Bills LCB Terrence McGee (knee) back, burnable bookend Drayton Florence returns to RCB to face off with deep threat Johnny Knox. A high-upside WR3 with little downside, Knox is on pace for nearly 1,100 receiving yards while averaging five catches for 88 yards in the five games Cutler has played all four quarters. ... The Bills struggle against tight ends, but Greg Olsen has three catches since Week 4 and hasn't scored since Week 3. ... Devin Hester's snaps are down because the Bears "want to keep him fresh for punt returns." Thankfully, the receiver experiment is ending. ... Keep an eye on Devin Aromashodu for stretch-run purposes. He only played nine snaps in Chicago's last game, but started. ... As noted by Biggs, the Bills are on pace to allow 3,019 rushing yards -- the worst mark in the last 30 years. Chester Taylor is the Bears' new goal-line back and worth a look as a flex. Matt Forte remains easily a top-15 running back play.
Even if this game doesn't produce a lot of points, Torontonians should at least witness lots of ball movement. Much of the yardage is likely to come from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Chicago's Cover 2 plays to the strengths of Buffalo's short-based passing offense, as Lovie Smith is willing to sacrifice chain-moving completions in exchange for takeaway chances. The Bills' line -- particularly undrafted rookie RT Cord Howard -- will have its hands full with Julius Peppers, but can offset the pass rusher with quick throws to flanker Steve Johnson and split end Lee Evans. Don't discount Fitzpatrick as an underrated QB1 after his slow Week 8 game against the Chiefs. He's still a top-11 fantasy quarterback. ... Johnson has six touchdowns in his last five outings. The 6'2/202-pound physical threat will square off with Bears LCB Tim Jennings (5'8/185) for much of Sunday.
The Bears rank fifth against the run and allow 3.6 yards per carry, also good for the fifth fewest in the league. They are susceptible to long runs (league-high 10 carries of 20-plus yards allowed), but Buffalo only has three of them all year, with just one coming from Fred Jackson. Though F-Jax is getting the ball 20 times a game since Marshawn Lynch's exit, he has zero touchdowns and a 73 total-yard average to show for it. Jackson isn't producing, and this isn't a good matchup. ... C.J. Spiller figures to experience a late-season bump in offensive playing time, but is averaging just eight touches per game since the Lynch deal. He's no more than a long-range fantasy flier.
Arizona @ Minnesota
Derek Anderson's reinsertion doesn't improve Larry Fitzgerald's chances of racking up catches, but his matchup couldn't possibly be better. Fitz has been sticking primarily to the left side of the formation, meaning he's more likely square off with Vikings RCB Asher Allen than LCB Antoine Winfield. (Minnesota's cornerbacks only move when Winfield covers the slot.) One of the worst tackling corners in football, Allen has also been destroyed in coverage. He gave up Brandon Tate's 65-yard touchdown in Week 8, as well as a 14-yard score to Greg Jennings the week before. Fitzgerald should be open most of the day, and bust tackles at will when D.A. finds him. ... Steve Breaston has topped 41 yards in just two games this season and will see Winfield for most of this game. Breaston caught eight balls for 147 yards in Week 8 and seems to have some chemistry with Anderson, but he won't create after the catch against Winfield's sure tackling.
Getting his first career start against Tampa Bay's porous run defense in Week 8, Beanie Wells produced a respectable 12.4 fantasy points. His on-field performance was more troubling, as explained in Gregg Rosenthal's Goal Line Stand. Wells' appearance on the Week 9 injury report due to swelling in his surgically repaired knee indicates that he's not 100 percent. His YPC average also way down from last year (3.38 compared to 2009's 4.51), Wells is questionable to face Minnesota. While he is expected to be active, he's not playing well enough for reliability as more than a low-end RB2. ... Tim Hightower was bench-banished in Week 8, losing passing-down work to LaRod Stephens-Howling and appearing only for a late-game drive because Wells had a back bruise. Hightower had two touches and is merely a handcuff for Wells at this point.
Adrian Peterson is lucky to face an Arizona team that has little hope of stopping the run (No. 29 rush defense, 22/120/2 allowed to undrafted rookie LeGarrette Blount last week), because he'll be the focus of opposing defenses going forward. Double team-commanding wideout Randy Moss is gone to Nashville, and Percy Harvin's severe ankle injury is likely to limit him assuming he's even active. The good news is that Peterson will remain the Vikings' offensive centerpiece, perhaps to an even greater extent than he was previously. Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling rank him No. 1 among running backs this week. ... As for Harvin, he's an extremely risky play. Already in line for the double teams left behind by Moss, Harvin was seen limping noticeably around Vikings headquarters on both Wednesday and Thursday. I, personally, am benching Harvin this week.
The Cardinals rank 21st against the pass, but Brett Favre will have a hard time carving out fantasy production with Harvin hobbled and no Moss. Should Harvin not play, the Vikings' three-receiver set would dwindle from Moss-Harvin-Bernard Berrian to Berrian-Greg Camarillo-Greg Lewis in a matter of one week. It's a nightmare situation. ... Visanthe Shiancoe is a speculative fantasy start considering that he hasn't topped 38 yards since Week 2. Shiancoe, however, does finally appear recovered from his early-season hamstring injury, and had emerged as Minnesota's top bet for receiving yards prior to Moss' month-long stay in the Twin Cities. Against a Cards defense that struggles to stop tight ends due to poor safety coverage, Shiancoe is a sneaky bye-week TE1.
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Coach Raheem Morris indicated in this week's conference call with the Atlanta media that the Bucs will use Aqib Talib to shadow Roddy White all over the field Sunday, calling it a matchup "especially fun to watch." White owners should be licking their chops. Fantasy football's No. 2 overall receiver this season, White burned Talib and Tampa for touchdowns in each of their two games last season. Talib's five interceptions look great on paper, but he's devolved into a gambling, risk-taking cornerback who targets the big play instead of shutting down receivers. According to Pro Football Focus, Talib has given up a touchdown in all but one game this season, and was burned by the Cardinals for 93 yards and a score on six completions in Week 8.
The Bucs kept in check a hobbled Beanie Wells last week, but this is still a run defense that ranks 30th and surrenders a league-high 5.2 yards per carry. Michael Turner should return from his bye for a real ringer. ... Behind White, Falcons pass catchers have been almost nonexistent. Tony Gonzalez, clearly slowing down at age 34, is averaging 10.06 yards per catch and 42 yards per game. Gonzalez is never a bad bet for a touchdown, but he's no longer a consistent threat for truly big games. ... Matt Ryan is the No. 6 overall quarterback in fantasy, and only four NFL teams have given up more passing touchdowns than the Bucs. Ryan has also been close to dominant in home games. In three outings at the Georgia Dome this year, he's averaging 266 passing yards with a 7:3 TD-to-INT ratio. In four on the road, Ryan's at 230 yards with a 5:2 ratio.
LeGarrette Blount more than doubled his career carry total in Tampa's Week 8 win, rushing 22 times for 120 yards and two TDs, but did it against Arizona's No. 29 rush defense. Atlanta is far stingier, ranking sixth against the run with only three rushing scores permitted in seven games. Blount was outrageously effective in the open field, literally hurdling over defenders and crashing through others, but this is a matchup to show his mettle. While owners can't confidently expect a repeat performance, Blount's goal-line role keeps him in the high-upside RB2 realm. Certainly, Cadillac Williams has faded as any kind of threat. ... One more plus for Blount: The Falcons have considerably more tape on Josh Freeman (224 pass attempts this season compared to Blount's 43 rushes) and will likely look to slow down the Bucs' quarterback first and foremost.
Freeman is averaging a robust 248 yards per game in the last month, but hasn't thrown multiple touchdown passes since Week 2. He's still in clear-cut QB2 territory, especially in this matchup with Falcons top CB Dunta Robinson (concussion, knee) due back. ... Mike Williams is likely to spend most of this game in Robinson's coverage. According to Pro Football Focus, opponents are completing 63 percent of their passes against Robinson, but he's not letting anyone get deep, holding them to a 9.4 yards-per-catch average with not a single TD allowed. Falcons LCB Brent Grimes has also been surprisingly stingy. (It's safeties and slot corner Chris Owens getting burned most for Atlanta.) Williams is tough to sit after his 4/105/1 explosion against the Cardinals last week, but he's not going against Greg Toler and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie anymore.
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New Orleans @ Carolina
Scoreless in his first six games, Marques Colston has hit his stride after offseason knee surgery. The Saints' No. 1 receiver has 16 grabs for 187 yards and two TDs in his last two. Elite wideouts playing so well can't be benched, but it's worth noting that Carolina has had Colston's number in their last three meetings. His lines in them: 1/45/0, 1/3/0, 4/36/0. ... Saints WR snaps/targets in Week 8: Colston -- 56/9; Devery Henderson -- 42/4; Lance Moore -- 33/8; Robert Meachem -- 30/6. ... Moore's seven catches led the way, and he's a viable WR3 as long as Reggie Bush is out. Bush (leg) won't return until Week 11. ... Henderson hasn't scored since Week 1. He's the poorest fantasy bet in New Orleans' receiver corps. ... Meachem is playing the fewest snaps, but makes plays when he gets opportunities. He has at least 76 yards or a touchdown in three of his last four games, and could be the beneficiary if the Panthers shut down Colston.
Despite reportedly playing through knee injuries, Drew Brees has multiple touchdown passes in each of his last four outings and 300 or more passing yards in two straight. Carolina's No. 5 pass defense ranking looks good on paper, but Sam Bradford completed 78.1 percent of his throws and threw two touchdowns against it in Week 8. Brees is the No. 3 overall fantasy QB. ... At this point, the Saints' backfield should be considered a fantasy wasteland, not a source of potential "sleeper" value. Saints RB snap counts/touch totals in Week 8: Ladell Betts -- 27/4; Julius Jones -- 20/10; Chris Ivory -- 13/7. ... The plodding Jones led the group in total yards with 36. It's a situation to avoid until Pierre Thomas (ankle) or Bush gets back, especially against a Carolina defense that shut down Steven Jackson to the tune of 63 yards on 24 touches in Week 8.
Jonathan Stewart's scoreless, 30-yard game at St. Louis was incredibly disappointing. Stewart is averaging just 2.8 YPC on the year, making him an especially dicey start against a Saints team that could pour on early points and force Carolina to play from behind. With DeAngelo Williams (foot) expected to miss another game, however, Stewart is again in line for 15-20 touches. He's not the borderline RB1 we envisioned at St. Louis, but such a talented back getting a full workload is difficult to bench in fantasy. ... Returning from his alleged breakout game in Week 7 (8/125/2), David Gettis crashed back down to earth with a catch-less, three-target Week 8. A career underachiever dating back to Baylor, Gettis was a monster high school recruit who never met expectations, scoring four touchdowns in his college career. He's always been a tease.
Steve Smith's nine-catch, 85-yard day against the Rams could've been a lot bigger if not for two drops. Smith dominated targets, seeing a game-high 15 and confirming that his ankle injury is in the rear-view mirror. The Saints may bum rush Matt Moore as they did Ben Roethlisberger last Sunday night in an effort to prevent long bombs, but Smith is running more short-to-intermediate routes than ever this season. He simply makes too many big plays after the catch to bench. ... Brandon LaFell and Gettis are rotating in the No. 2 receiver role for Carolina. With Smith hogging receptions and targets, the rookies will struggle for consistency in an overall weak passing attack.
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NY Giants @ Seattle
Manson lookalike Charlie Whitehurst isn't just making his first start in Week 9. He's attempting his first NFL pass. Whitehurst's preseason against second- and third-stringers: 46-of-90 (51.1 percent) for four TDs, four INTs, and four sacks taken. Without LT Russell Okung (high ankle sprain), it's going to be a long day for Whitehurst against a Giants defense that leads the league in sacks per game and has knocked five QBs out of seven contests. ... If there was one shining light from Whitehurst's exhibition performances, it's that he delivered the ball downfield, averaging 7.1 yards per attempt in spite of the miserable completion rate. Whether he'll be able to do so against New York's ferocious pass rush remains to be seen, but Whitehurst will be a drain on Big Mike Williams' value. With a lineman-like forty time, Williams takes forever to get deep.
John Carlson's four-target, three-catch, 47-yard game in Week 8 was his best in the last month. A short-route runner like Williams, Carlson won't be helped by Whitehurst's ascension to the starting quarterback role. ... Deon Butler isn't worth a look, either. Though he'll run the vertical patterns with Golden Tate (ankle) ruled out, Butler's production has dropped in three straight weeks. ... If Marshawn Lynch can't capitalize on a Week 8 date with the Raiders, against whom is he going to excel? He finished with seven yards on nine carries last week, and is down to 2.8 yards a tote as a Seahawk. Throw out a fluky 39-yard run in Week 7 and it becomes 2.06. Only the Steelers and Chargers are more proficient at run stopping than the G-Men this season.
Ranked second in run defense entering Week 8, a late-season collapse appears to be in the works for Seattle's front seven. Core run-stopping LE Red Bryant went on I.R. this week and immovable NT Colin Cole (ankle) is out indefinitely. Their replacements will be former 49ers first-round bust Kentwan Balmer and former Chiefs second-round bust Junior Siavii (0 career starts). After Darren McFadden moved the Seahawks from No. 2 to 10th last week in the run defense rankings, Ahmad Bradshaw should light up the injury-decimated unit as a borderline RB1. ... Brandon Jacobs has a touchdown in four straight games, over that span averaging 10 touches for 55 yards per game and 5.76 yards per tote. Though TDs carry his value, it's all confirmation that Jacobs is playing well again. He's approaching every-week flex status in non-PPR leagues.
I spoke of it here previously, and it became national news when ESPN's Matt Millen mentioned on Week 7 Monday Night Football that teams continue to leave Hakeem Nicks exposed to single coverage. Enjoy it while it lasts. Millen cited the single teams after Nicks went off for nine grabs, 108 yards, and two touchdowns against Dallas. Among receivers, only Brandon Lloyd, Roddy White, and Calvin Johnson have more fantasy points this season. ... Steve Smith has picked it up since a slow start, going off for an average of seven catches for 87 yards with two touchdowns in his last three games. He'll draw Seahawks top CB Marcus Trufant more than Nicks, but shouldn't disappoint as a WR2/3. ... Seattle ranks 29th against the pass. Eli Manning is the No. 8 overall fantasy quarterback and figures to stay hot as the Giants dominate time of possession Sunday.
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Indianapolis @ Philadelphia
We'll start to incorporate weather more in this space. The forecast for this one was worth a look because it involves so many fantasy starters. As of Thursday night, Weather.com called for 50-plus degree temps and mostly sunny skies. Fire up your Colts and Eagles. ... Peyton Manning (No. 2 fantasy QB) and Reggie Wayne (No. 9 WR) are matchup proof, so Philly's No. 11 pass defense is no deterrent. ... Anthony Gonzalez (knee) is injured again and the Colts don't appear comfortable yet with Blair White, so they're pushing Austin Collie back from thumb surgery. Collie will square off with Eagles slot corner Joselio Hanson, whose coverage has been stout this season save a Week 2 torching by Calvin Johnson when he was forced outside due to injury. At less than 100 percent, Collie is a risky if high-upside WR3. He does appear set for a full complement of snaps.
The Eagles have given up four TDs to tight ends in their last four games. Jacob Tamme exploded onto the scene in the Dallas Clark role last week, playing 81 percent of the snaps and catching six balls for 64 yards and a score. He could be relied on even more heavily this week with fellow TE Brody Eldridge battling a rib injury and having dropped his lone target in Week 8. ... Mike Hart (ankle) and Joseph Addai (shoulder) are expected to miss Week 9. Donald Brown is on the hook for the start, but it would require a leap of faith to start him after Brown appeared to be yanked for ineffectiveness late in last week's game. The Colts went with undrafted rookie Javarris James -- who couldn't even start in college -- after Brown managed just 16 yards on nine carries. The Eagles only surrender 4.0 yards per carry and get NT Brodrick Bunkley (elbow) back this week.
DeSean Jackson (concussion) is expected to return, and should be immediately reinserted as a borderline WR1. In 11 quarters with Michael Vick, Jackson has 14 catches for 324 yards and two touchdowns. In 13 quarters with Kevin Kolb, he managed just five catches for 71 yards and one TD. ... Because of their speed, the Colts have a defense built to hang with Vick. It really doesn't matter, though, because Vick is a top-five fantasy option. In his four appearances, Vick has accounted for seven TDs, zero turnovers, and an average of 8.3 yards per pass attempt. He's also averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Start him with confidence. ... Jeremy Maclin has dominated regardless of his quarterback. As the No. 8 overall fantasy receiver, he's an every-week starter.
Brent Celek claims to be healthy after battling through a wrist injury to lead tight ends in drops during the first seven games. Due to the miscues, the Eagles have rarely called plays for him. Indy is one of the NFL's stingiest teams against tight ends, and Vick has not looked his way this year. Both of Celek's touchdowns have come from Kolb. ... The Colts rank 28th against the run and LeSean McCoy is sixth among fantasy running backs. You already knew to start him, of course.
Kansas City @ Oakland
Raiders RCB Nnamdi Asomugha is expected to miss Week 9 with a high ankle sprain, and the downgrade in Oakland's pass defense without him will be massive. Though Kansas City is sure to go run-heavy as always, fantasy owners can count on Dwayne Bowe being the intended target on the rare occasions Matt Cassel drops back to pass. With Asomugha out, Bowe is a much better bet to get open. He has five touchdowns in his last three games and is dominating Cassel's attention, seeing a team-high 20 targets over that span. Start him with confidence as a borderline WR2. ... Tony Moeaki has just ten targets since Week 5 and hasn't found the end zone since Week 3. He'll continue to focus on run blocking against Oakland's 26th-ranked rush defense.
Jamaal Charles is coming off the most dominant rushing effort of Week 8, racking up 238 total yards against Buffalo. An incredible 17 of Charles' 26 touches last week went for a gain of at least six yards. He also received nine of the Chiefs' final 11 running back touches in the 13-10 overtime victory, compared to just two for Thomas Jones. It was confirmation that coach Todd Haley considers Charles the Chiefs' best option. Expect him to continue in the lead back role against a Raiders team that has moved up the run defense rankings a bit by blowing out its last two inept opponents (Denver, Seattle). They won't be able to do the same against Kansas City.
Darren McFadden leads the league in rushing yards per game, proving himself matchup-proof against a Seahawks defense that ranked second against the run entering Week 8. Almost single-handedly, McFadden dropped Seattle's ranking to No. 10 in a matter of one game. There's not a running back playing better in football, so McFadden is a must-start despite the Chiefs' highly-rated run defense. ... The vast majority of Michael Bush's 171 total yards and two touchdowns over the past two weeks has come in garbage time. The Raiders have smashed their last two opponents by a combined margin of 92-17. If you're starting Bush in a fantasy league, you're essentially wagering that Oakland is going to blow out Kansas City. He's a poor flex option.
Jason Campbell was announced as Oakland's Week 9 starter, and he earned it by engineering back-to-back wins while compiling a 4:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an otherworldly 10.9 yards-per-attempt average. It won't keep up against a Chiefs pass defense that surrenders just 6.5 YPA and has allowed all of nine touchdown passes in seven games. Campbell's start-ability is further diminished by a foot injury that clearly hobbled Zach Miller throughout Week 8, as the tight end finished with one catch for eight yards. ... Louis Murphy (bruised lung) won't play against the Chiefs, so Darrius Heyward-Bey will slide into the No. 1 receiver role again. Heyward-Bey is coming off a career-best game (5/105/1), but did nearly all of the damage against Seahawks practice squad-caliber CB Roy Lewis because Kelly Jennings and Walter Thurmond III were inactive with injuries. Also battling his own shoulder problem, DHB isn't a good fantasy play.
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[SIZE=+1]Sunday Night Football[/SIZE]
Dallas @ Green Bay
The Packers opened the year trying to keep their receivers fresh by limiting Greg Jennings and Donald Driver's snaps. Driver has predictably broken down as a 35-year-old coming off two knee surgeries, but Jennings has become impossible to take off the field since Jermichael Finley's injury. Whereas Jennings oddly averaged only 45 snaps per game in the season's first month, he's averaged 61 snaps a week in the Packers' last four games. Increased playing time has resulted in highly consistent production, as Jennings is averaging six catches for 96 yards per game since Week 5, with two touchdowns in his last three outings. Jennings will go against Mike Jenkins for the majority of this one, and like the rest of the Cowboys' defense the starting right cornerback appears to have thrown in the towel. Jenkins was burned repeatedly by the consistently underwhelming Mike Sims-Walker in Week 8, as MSW went off for 153 yards and a touchdown on eight catches. Jennings is a much better player than Sims-Walker.
Jordy Nelson and James Jones have swapped production over the last three weeks, but Jones stands to benefit most from Driver's (quad) inactivity. He'll become an every-down player, starting at flanker and likely moving into the slot for three-receiver sets -- just as Driver did. Nelson is more of a desperation play. ... Brandon Jackson ran for 55 yards on 15 carries in Week 8, with 27 of the yards picked up on a meaningless scamper just before the end of the second quarter. He's topped 63 rushing yards in one game this season. ... Dallas' pass defense has allowed a 15:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an 8.0 yards-per-attempt average this year. Aaron Rodgers is an elite fantasy play with Jenkins getting torched and LCB Terence Newman (ribs) at significantly less than 100 percent. ... Andrew Quarless had two targets in Week 8. He dropped both