Matchups: Capitulating Cards The 2010 Rams and Cardinals have flip-flopped roles in the NFC West. Whereas St. Louis pulled up the division rear and lacked stretch-run motivation in 2009, Ken Whisenhunt's club has replaced Steve Spagnuolo's as the league's worst division's worst team, and definitely the worst to watch.
At least the Rams had an excuse last year -- they lacked talent. The Cardinals don't lack talent.
They've just given up.
As ESPN's Jon Gruden noted during Monday night's Cards-Niners broadcast, Arizona's defense couldn't stop the run with three nose tackles on field. First-round pick Dan Williams (6'3/330), Gabe Watson (6'4/330), and Alan Branch (6'5/340) were gashed for 136 yards and a touchdown by 31-year-old Brian Westbrook, who entered the game with five rushing attempts on the season and leg joints so shot that he barely found a taker on the 2010 free agent market. 49ers stalwart left tackle Joe Staley was inactive, and center David Baas suffered a concussion during the game.
Cardinals defenders didn't play to the whistle. ESPN's Merril Hoge observed Arizona's outside linebackers "getting out of their stance and just putting their hands up like they were trying to knock (the football) down," with zero effort on the pass rush. Even on the offensive side, quarterback Derek Anderson and guard Deuce Lutui were caught laughing on the sideline.
The end result? A sixth straight loss. It's almost hard to fathom a coach like Whisenhunt losing his team, but defensive coordinator Bill Davis has definitely lost his defense.
The Cardinals now play on a short week against a Rams team just beginning to hit its stride. A healthy Danario Alexander has added a new dimension to St. Louis' passing offense, providing big-play ability, a deep threat, and physical run-after-catch skills. Sam Bradford doesn't miss, and his offensive line is as injury-free as it's been all season.
The Rams, in theory, could gut Arizona's No. 31 run defense with Steven Jackson. But St. Louis' rushing offense has been a weak link for much of the season. The Rams rank 20th in rushing offense, and are tied for third to last in the NFC in yards-per-carry average. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur's decision to run on seven of the Rams' final nine offensive snaps of last week's game nearly cost his team a win. The seven rushing attempts gained a pathetic 11 yards.
Bradford has surpassed Jackson as the Rams' best offensive player.
Starting a rookie quarterback (Bradford) or receiver (Alexander) in a fantasy week as important as this isn't typically recommended, and isn't an approach to be taken by owners with established studs. But if you're struggling at QB or WR3, you could do a lot worse than Bradford or Alexander in an indoor game against a defense that ranks 25th against the pass, generates little-to-no pressure, and appears to have rolled over.
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Jacksonville @ Tennessee
In a quarterback-driven league, offenses tend to shut down when they don't pose any semblance of a passing-game threat. It's exactly what happened to the Titans in Week 12. Chris Johnson was the biggest loser, finishing with career lows in carries (7) and rushing yards (5) as the Titans fell behind 14-0 with five minutes left in the first half and were dominated 40:20 in time of possession. 38-year-old quarterbacks coming off leg muscle injuries don't typically light up the box score, but Kerry Collins' return will give defenses a lot more to think about than Rusty Smith did. Johnson will remain the focal point of Tennessee's game plan against a Jaguars defense that ranks 20th against the run and has given up the second most rushing touchdowns in the AFC. Jack Del Rio's team was gutted for 177 total yards and a 5.91 YPC average by Giants backs last week.
Whether or not Randy Moss still possesses elite talent remains up for debate, but anyone who's caught his first three games as a Titan would agree that he's not giving enough effort. He didn't even jump for a fourth-quarter touchdown opportunity on a slightly high pass against the Texans, and is now averaging 1.3 catches for 16.3 yards with Tennessee. (And the Titans have lost all three contests.) The Jags' pass defense presents a favorable matchup, but we said the same about Washington and Houston. Moss is barely worth a roster spot. ... Collins' return may help Nate Washington and Bo Scaife, but competitive owners should be able to do better. Even on far fewer snaps, Danario Alexander is a better option than Washington. Scaife isn't on the radar.
Maurice Jones-Drew leads the league with 120.3 rushing yards per game in the last month, and two of his last three opponents boast top-ten run defenses. He's matchup proof, although MJD won't have to be against the Titans. Tennessee's front four has fallen apart recently due to numerous injuries, allowing Redskins and Texans backs to pile up 293 rushing yards in the last two games. With David Garrard struggling again, Jones-Drew is a safe bet to be Jacksonville's offensive focal point Sunday. ... Marcedes Lewis had a slow Week 12 (3/36/0), but you're not going to find many healthy tight ends on pace for 12 touchdowns floating around fantasy football. Only the Texans and Panthers have given up more yards to tight ends than the Titans this year.
Garrard went on a tear in Weeks 4-10, but the streakiest passer in football has gone back in the gutter in his last two games, completing just 57.9 percent of his throws (he's at 66.3 for the season) with a 2:6 touchdown pass-to-turnover ratio. He's not a QB1 option against a Titans pass defense that has piled up 15 INTs while allowing just 14 TDs, and permits a measly 6.7 yards per attempt. Tennessee is also tied for second in the league in sacks. ... Back to being equally mediocre WR3 bets, Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas aren't intriguing plays in this difficult matchup. Sims-Walker is still battling through a high ankle sprain, and will square off mostly with Titans RCB Cortland Finnegan. In Week 6, Finnegan held MSW to 16 yards on two catches.
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Washington @ NY Giants
The Giants created a healthy, competitive situation at tailback by "demoting" Ahmad Bradshaw for Brandon Jacobs prior to Week 12. After the two combined for 170 total yards against a Jaguars defense that held Peyton Hillis to a season-low 2.29 yards per carry in the previous week, coach Tom Coughlin stated that Bradshaw remains "very much in the hunt" for the first-team role. In other words, the two backs are still battling for the job. Both Bradshaw and Jacobs will be safe bets for 15-plus touches against a Washington defense that ranks 26th against the run and gives up a league-high 4.89 yards per carry. Down three of their top four wideouts, the G-Men are clearly targeting a run-heavy approach. Running backs received 28 touches in New York's Week 12 win over Jacksonville, while Eli Manning threw 24 passes to tie for his fewest of the season.
Despite the volume reduction, Manning atoned with his seventh straight multi-touchdown game and a season-high 9.42 yards-per-attempt average. He's going to beat up on poor secondaries regardless of the altered offense. The Skins are 29th in pass defense and appear likely to be without both top cover corner Carlos Rogers (hamstrings) and SS LaRon Landry (Achilles). Eli's upside is curtailed, but he's still a quality QB1. ... Owners fooled into jumping on the Derek Hagan hype train are hopefully off by now. Hagan started at flanker, but had 21 yards on four targets last week. ... Mario Manningham (3/61/1) and Kevin Boss (3/74/1) will be the top bets for receiving yards and scores in New York's pass-catching corps until Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith return. Boss' passing-game role has clearly expanded. He saw a team-high eight targets last week.
The Giants have given up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends in the NFC, which is cause for concern for Chris Cooley. Though his touchdown total is highly disappointing, Cooley has stayed consistent and ranks ninth at his position in scoring. The matchup is difficult, but Cooley is an every-week starter in a horribly down year for tight ends. You'd have to have a truly awesome alternative to bench him. ... It's fair to wonder if Santana Moss' hamstring and knee woes affected him in a favorable matchup with the Vikings last week that produced just five catches for 40 yards. Moss did play a full host of snaps; the Skins just didn't possess the ball much. Perhaps he isn't a confident WR2 this week, but he's a must-start WR3. Where else are the passes going to go?
Donovan McNabb ranks 20th among quarterbacks in fantasy points and hasn't even capitalized on favorable matchups this season. He's probably on most waiver wires at this point, and isn't an option against the Giants' No. 1 pass defense. ... James Davis and Keiland Williams will share the Redskins' backfield against New York's top-ten run defense in an obvious situation to avoid. Coach Mike Shanahan clearly has no faith in Williams, whose poor instincts and tendency to run into the back of his blockers make the rookie an unnatural fit for Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme. Davis has looked good in practice and preseason, but routinely flops in real games. The Skins have to be praying that Ryan Torain (hamstring) returns for Week 14 against Tampa.
San Francisco @ Green Bay
The Packers made good on their vow to use more five-receiver sets in Week 12. Aaron Rodgers, who's begged for the run-and-shoot all year, capitalized on the quarterback-friendly system with season highs in passing and rushing yards. Rodgers has overtaken Philip Rivers as the No. 1 fantasy QB, and is likely to remain the top performer the rest of the way. ... James Jones is averaging four receptions for 64 yards with two TDs in five games since Donald Driver's Week 6 quad injury. Driver has a scoreless 57 yards on six catches in his last four appearances. Even Jordy Nelson has put up better numbers than Driver, who was safe to drop several weeks ago.
The 49ers are far better at stopping the run than the pass, so the pass-first Packers will pose a severe mismatch. With clear skies in the Lambeau forecast, expect fireworks from Rodgers & Co. ... Jones played a season-high 72.1 percent of the offensive snaps in the new formation last week. He's the Packers' second best bet for receiving yards and scores. ... Greg Jennings is averaging over six catches for 107 yards with six touchdowns in his last six games. Behind Dwayne Bowe, you couldn't name a hotter fantasy wideout. ... Regressing sharply since a flash-in-the-pan Weeks 5-7 stretch, Brandon Jackson is averaging 2.90 YPC in his last four games and has been yanked off goal-line duty. He's a very poor option against the 49ers' No. 8 run defense.
With Frank Gore done for the year, the 49ers will turn to a committee backfield. Though Brian Westbrook had the "hot hand" in Week 12 and received 23 touches to Anthony Dixon's 15, Dixon was first off the bench immediately following Gore's injury and executed for the 49ers' lone goal-line score after three Westbrook runs down to Arizona's one-yard line. Mike Singletary's staff is well aware that a 31-year-old with chronic history of knee and ankle issues is a poor bet to hold up on feature back carries. Westbrook may be the best bet for total yards in Week 13, but Dixon is a stronger choice for touchdowns and sustained value down the stretch. Underrated in the passing game with impressively quick feet for a big man, Dixon will have the workload all to himself once Westbrook goes down again. In my opinion, Dixon should've been this week's top waiver pickup.
Troy Smith is 3-1 as a starter, but hasn't helped Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis much. The coaching staff simply gives Smith no leeway, as he's averaged 25.3 pass attempts in four starts. Not even Monday night's first-quarter 38-yard missile to Crabtree in the back of the end zone earned Smith more rope; two possessions later the 49ers were handing off to Westbrook on third-and-eight. Singletary's ultra-conservative mission is killing Crabtree and Davis' upsides. ... A bum ankle has plenty to do with it, but Davis is averaging two catches for 31.5 yards with no TDs dating back to Week 7. It's not crazy to sit him if you have quality alternatives. ... Crabtree has at least stayed afloat with five touchdowns in his last seven games. The 49ers move him all around the formation, so Crabtree should not be locked into coverage with shutdown RCB Tramon Williams.
Buffalo @ Minnesota
Fred Jackson's mid-to-late season surge conjures up memories of his 2009 campaign, when "F-Jax" emerged from a committee with Marshawn Lynch to pile up an average of 115 total yards in the final six games. This year, Jackson has a whopping six TDs in his last four efforts, to go with 462 total yards in his last three. C.J. Spiller's return and a matchup with Minnesota's top-five run defense are concerns, but Jackson posted 22.3 fantasy points against Pittsburgh's No. 1 unit last week, and in all likelihood Spiller will focus on bringing back punts. It's not going to be easy to bench one of the league's hottest running backs in what could quietly turn into a shootout. ... Lee Evans has a great on-paper matchup with the Vikings' RCB combo of Asher Allen and rookie Chris Cook, but is difficult to trust with an average of two catches per game in the last month.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has rediscovered a hot hand with five touchdowns and 581 yards in his last two games, numbers that would improve to six and 621 had Steve Johnson not dropped a perfectly placed, would-be game-winning bomb in the back of the Pittsburgh end zone last week. Playing indoors certainly doesn't hurt Fitzpatrick's chances of a big game, and nor does a below-average Vikings pass defense that is easily beaten at whatever area of the secondary LCB/slot corner Antoine Winfield isn't occupying. ... The Bills will spread out Minnesota's defense, forcing Winfield inside to cover Donald Jones or David Nelson. Johnson ranked second in the NFL last week in targets (only Dwayne Bowe had more) and should be played with plenty of confidence as a WR2.
It should come as no surprise that a team with a struggling quarterback and a defensive-minded interim coach has gone run heavy. Despite Adrian Peterson's first-half, game-ending ankle injury in Week 12, the Vikings stayed with the ground attack en route to a 38:23 run-to-pass ratio. With Peterson fully expected to play against Buffalo -- and Toby Gerhart having proved his mettle as a more than adequate fill-in, a similar approach is highly likely against Buffalo's No. 32 run defense. ... I could go on and on about Brett Favre's favorable matchup, but he's simply not playing well or throwing enough in the revised offense to be a quality play outside of two-quarterback leagues.
Visanthe Shiancoe (3/54/0), Percy Harvin (5/32/0), and Sidney Rice (1/20/0) all had slow games in Leslie Frazier's debut. All have good matchups, but none sticks out as an elite play with the pass attempts in decline. Rice is inferior to Harvin, with whom Favre clearly has better chemistry. Favre hit on all five of his targets to Harvin last week. ... Meanwhile, Rice has hauled in just four of his 14 targets from Favre since returning two games ago. We'd like to see a better rapport before recommending Rice. It doesn't help that Rice continues to miss practice as a "precaution." When are the two supposed to get on the same page? ... As for Shiancoe, only the Texans defend tight ends more poorly than the Bills, who've allowed a league-high eight touchdowns to the position.
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New Orleans @ Cincinnati
The Saints' defense hasn't been nearly as opportunistic as last year's group, but a Week 13 date with Carson Palmer could turn that around. Palmer has multiple interceptions in each of his last three games, and is likely to remain pick-prone going forward considering his consistently duck-like throw trajectory. Perhaps he'll pile up some garbage-time points, but Palmer is only worth a look in fantasy leagues that don't penalize for turnovers. ... Jermaine Gresham has crashed back to earth since his fluky 9/85/1 line in Week 10, failing to top two receptions in two games since. He has five drops in the last five weeks, far too many for a tight end averaging 8.3 yards a catch. Competitive owners should have higher standards for fantasy starters, even in desperate times.
Darrelle Revis shut him down for 17 yards on three Thanksgiving night catches, but Terrell Owens should rebound Sunday. T.O. (6'3/224) poses a physical mismatch for Saints LCB Jabari Greer (5'11/180), who was torched by Seattle's Big Mike Williams two weeks ago. "BMW" racked up 109 yards on six catches in that game despite playing through a painful second-half foot sprain. ... Chad Ochocinco will spend most of the day against RCB Tracy Porter. Ocho is simply no longer athletic enough to handle Porter, who according to Pro Football Focus has been beaten for just one receiving score all year. Ochocinco has topped 41 yards once in his last five games ... The long week after a Thursday game should benefit Cedric Benson, but the former Bear is averaging just 3.53 yards per carry since New Orleans' Week 6 bye. Owners had also better hope that the Bengals don't fall behind a red-hot Saints team early. Benson leaves in all passing situations.
Drew Brees is on a tear in his last six games, throwing for 14 touchdowns and averaging 318.5 yards. He's benefiting from a more pass-happy offense. Whereas the Saints threw 32.2 times per game in Weeks 1-6, Brees has averaged 45 attempts since Week 7. The 2010 Sportsman of the Year won't struggle for another big effort against an injury-depleted Bengals pass defense. ... Pierre Thomas (ankle) wouldn't be a fantasy option in his first game back from a nine-week layoff, but his potential return is enough reason to sit the Saints' other rushers. Goal-line back Chris Ivory only got the ball seven times on Thanksgiving, and Julius Jones led the way with a measly 13 touches. Thomas threatens to make both Ivory and Jones irrelevant in the final five contests.
Reggie Bush was a tease against Dallas, playing 15 snaps with two touches. Clearly rusty, he also fumbled away a third-quarter punt and dropped a potential touchdown pass. Bush's role will grow, but he's not playable until we see it. ... As Bush gets more playing time, Lance Moore's will lessen. ... Marques Colston is averaging eight catches for 94 yards with four TDs in his last five games. Despite a slow start, Colston is on pace for a top-16 fantasy receiver finish for the fourth time in his five-year career. ... Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson continue to trade off big weeks. It was Henderson on Thanksgiving with 97 yards, though Meachem is typically the slightly better gamble. ... Jimmy Graham had two drops last Thursday, one resulting in an interception. It's not going to help his case for increased snaps, particularly with Jeremy Shockey coming back.
Denver @ Kansas City
Vegas projects Broncos-Chiefs as this week's highest scoring Sunday game, so get your studs going. Though Denver-K.C. in Week 10 will be an inexact indicator for Week 13 lineup decisions considering the Broncos' lopsided win, Kyle Orton's numbers are closest to reliable because they came when the game was still close. Orton threw for 296 yards and four TDs, with three of the scores coming in the first quarter. He also gets a healthy boost with Chiefs shutdown LCB Brandon Flowers battling a hamstring injury. Flowers is a game-time decision. ... Brandon Lloyd is set for another date with burnable RCB Brandon Carr and whomever Romeo Crennel elects to trot out at free safety. Routinely destroying double teams, Lloyd is lock-safe top-five receiver start.
It was nice to see Eddie Royal confirm that he can still play in Week 12 against the Rams, but consider that 3/57/1 of his 6/74/1 line came on one drive in fourth-quarter comeback mode. He's not worthy of WR3 consideration this week. ... Jabar Gaffney continues to underwhelm without a solitary game over 59 yards and just one touchdown since Week 6. If Flowers plays, Gaffney will be matched up with him for most of the contest. ... A healthy Knowshon Moreno has established himself as an every-week starter and borderline RB1 with 118 or more total yards and a score in three straight games. He's impressively done it against back-to-back-to-back top-13 run defenses.
Rotoworld caught some preseason flak for projecting Jamaal Charles as a top-seven fantasy RB, but he's exceeded even our expectations. Ranked fifth at the position, Charles is averaging an otherworldly 125.5 total yards per game. He also got five red-zone touches to Thomas Jones' three in Week 12, executing for K.C.'s lone rushing score from three yards out. Overall, Charles gained 23 yards on five carries inside the Seattle 20. Jones managed four total yards on two runs and one catch. The vastly superior option regardless of down and distance, Charles totaled 121 yards and a TD at Denver in Week 10. ... In the aforementioned game, Jones only had 22 yards on five touches. His reduced role was due to game flow (Kansas City fell behind big), but Jones remains a dicey flex play because he relies so heavily on volume. He doesn't hit any big plays.
Box-score watchers may see Dwayne Bowe's 13/186/2 line from his earlier meeting with Denver and consider him a shoe-in for another monster effort. I certainly wouldn't recommend sitting fantasy's hottest receiver over the past seven weeks, but would caution to approach that game with a big grain of salt. Champ Bailey shadowed Bowe in Week 10, but gave him a huge cushion in off coverage after the Broncos jumped out to a 35-0 lead. Taking nothing away from Bowe, he's scattered two drops among a league-high 70 targets dating back to Week 5, and continues to obliterate single coverage with opponents focused on stopping Charles and Jones. None of it's working. ... Matt Cassel benefited from a perfect storm of Bailey's cushion and throw-it mode after the monster early deficit in the Week 10 game. He's a fine low-end QB1, but won't repeat his 469 yards and four touchdowns unless the Chiefs' defense takes the first two quarters off again.
Chicago @ Detroit
Shaun Hill's fractured finger is a major concern, but there is hope for Calvin Johnson. Replacing Hill after a fractured forearm in Week 6, Drew Stanton performed serviceably in a tough setting at the Giants' New Meadowlands Stadium, completing 19-of-34 passes for 222 yards, a touchdown, one interception, and 30 yards on three scrambles. The improvising Stanton completed four of his five targets to Megatron for 125 yards, including an 87-yard scoring bomb. Arguably more aggressive than Hill and undoubtedly more athletic with a stronger arm, Stanton should be able to deliver the ball to Detroit's top receiver. ... It will be interesting to see if the Lions scale back the offense. They didn't for Hill, as only the Colts have more pass attempts across the NFL. Either way, the Maurice Morris-Aaron Brown-Jahvid Best rotation should be avoided against the Bears' NFC-best run defense. Regardless of Morris' two Thanksgiving gimme scores on the goal line.
Stanton has thrown 36 passes this season. His targets behind Megatron: Brandon Pettigrew -- 7; Nate Burleson -- 7; Bryant Johnson -- 6; Tony Scheffler -- 4; Jahvid Best -- 4. ... Pettigrew, in fact, has a team-high five receptions from Stanton (more than Calvin), though Scheffler's return from a ribs injury won't help him. It's still hard to fathom benching Pettigrew when he ranks second in the league in receptions among tight ends and could be the inexperienced Stanton's "safety valve." The Bears have also allowed the fifth most catches to tight ends in the NFL. ... As the Lions' slot receiver, Burleson could also see his fair share of underneath targets. Unlike Johnson and Pettigrew, however, it's difficult to stay confident about Burleson when he lacks elite talent.
Detroit's pass defense looked like one of the NFL's most improved units at the halfway point, but it's crumbling. In-fighting and finger-pointing have ensued among Lions defenders after they gave up seven touchdowns compared to no interceptions and a 76.5 completion rate to Jon Kitna and Tom Brady in Weeks 11-12. Heating up in his own right, Jay Cutler suddenly has the look of a top-ten quarterback play against a Detroit defense expected to be minus top DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (neck). Cutler is deadly with a clean pocket. ... If Cutler has time to throw, Bears No. 1 receiver Johnny Knox also becomes much more dangerous. The deep threat is on pace for over 1,000 yards, and is worth a WR3 play in all fantasy leagues for this domed game at Ford Field.
KVB's absence is also a plus for Matt Forte, whose outlook is on the rise in the Bears' ball-control offense. Forte is averaging 21 touches per game in the last month, and posted 201 total yards with two TDs in his last date with Detroit. The Lions rank 24th against the run, but not even that number shows how bad they've been. Their 4.62 YPC allowed is the fourth worst in football, and their 13 rushing scores allowed are third most. ... Greg Olsen has scored in three of his last four games and is never a bad bet for a touchdown. Just don't expect much else. ... Despite a season-high 86 yards in Week 12, Devin Hester is only an option in return-yardage leagues. He just isn't a natural wideout, getting the vast majority of his receiving yards on broken plays.
Cleveland @ Miami
In his first start back after a benching and knee injury, Chad Henne did well to expose an injury-plagued and generally failing Raiders' defense for a season-best 10.2 yards-per-pass attempt, 307 yards, and two touchdowns in Week 12. Nnamdi Asomugha entered the game having given up 87 yards on five receptions all year. The Fins attacked Asomugha and his bum ankle, pinning four completions for 65 yards on the shutdown corner, as well as a holding flag. Much of the rest of Henne's yardage came against rookie CB Walter McFadden, playing in his third career game. This isn't to tear apart Henne's performance -- he played quite well -- but keep all of the factors in mind before starting him against the Browns. ... Brandon Marshall's (hamstring) return isn't good news for anyone, from Davone Bess on down to fantasy owners. It's hard to imagine playing Marshall when he risks in-game aggravation of the injury and wasn't even producing before it.
The Dolphins' offense is inherently run-heavy, so targets are precious for receivers like Bess, who barely averages over 10 yards a reception and rarely scores. He'll lose them to Marshall, so don't think Bess' season-high 111 yards from Week 12 are a sign of things to come. ... Brian Hartline is a fine player with unsung skills, but it'd be nice to see how Miami's offense looks with Marshall and Henne back before using any members of conservative OC Dan Henning's passing attack. One member should have a decent game, but he's going to be awfully difficult to pinpoint. ... The Fins got their running game back on track last week, with both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams receiving over 20 touches and each hitting 85-plus total yards. Williams got most of his on a late 45-yard touchdown. They're both low-end RB2s against an above-average Browns run defense.
As if you needed another reason to use No. 2 overall fantasy player Peyton Hillis, Dolphins run-plugging ILB Channing Crowder (knee) is expected to miss Sunday's game. The Fins have a stout run defense, but were highly susceptible up the gut when Crowder missed four games earlier this season. According to Pro Football Focus, Crowder had one of the highest grades in run defense on the roster since returning. Hillis has seven TDs in his last four games, averaging 28.5 touches for 166.5 total yards over that span. Somehow, he's getting stronger late in the year.
With Jake Delhomme taking the reins once again, don't start Ben Watson, Mohamed Massaquoi, Joshua Cribbs, Evan Moore, or Brian Robiskie. Do start the Dolphins' fantasy defense.
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Oakland @ San Diego
Darren McFadden's production has declined steadily in four straight games since returning from injury, finally bottoming out in an eight-carry, two-yard Week 12. The Oakland Tribune has suggested Raiders coaches are "concerned that he's not running as he did before." Although he's stayed effective as a receiver, McFadden's yards-per-carry average and yards after contact have also slipped. Assuming his previous hamstring strain wasn't aggravated somewhere along the line, McFadden should rediscover success in one of the most favorable running game schedules during the fantasy playoffs. In Week 13, however, deep-pocketed owners wouldn't be crazy to sit McFadden for viable alternatives. The Chargers rank third against the run and permit just 3.52 yards per carry. They could also jump out to an early lead, reducing Oakland's rushing attempts.
It's hard to trust Raiders passing game members against San Diego's No. 2 pass defense. The Bolts began the season playing one of the easiest quarterback slates in football, but their pass-rushing and secondary dominance has continued into a ridiculous five-game stretch that's included matchups with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, and Kyle Orton. Potential All-Pro LCB Quentin Jammer's group has held that fab four to a 4:6 TD-to-INT ratio, 232 passing yards per game, and a weak 72.8 QB rating. ... Jacoby Ford is again the flavor of the week with over 100 receiving yards in two of his last three games. No one doubts his explosiveness, but a player with such a limited track record at receiver is difficult to count on in such a tough matchup. ... Up-and-down flanker Louis Murphy will square off with Jammer in this one and isn't an option.
Quick-footed with speed to reach the perimeter, Ryan Mathews' return has the potential to help San Diego during the stretch run. This is still Mike Tolbert's backfield. The Bolts' power-running system simply moves more smoothly with Tolbert in the lineup, and the converted fullback has all but put the offense on his back in the last two games, with Philip Rivers throwing for back-to-back season-lows in passing yardage while Tolbert ran the Broncos and Colts into the ground. Those performances won't be forgotten, especially against a Raiders defense that is most susceptible on the ground. Oakland's 28th-ranked unit serves up 4.44 YPC. Tolbert can no longer expect 25 carries a game, but he's going to remain the feature back. Mathews isn't a fantasy option yet.
Rivers' attempts and yards are down in his last two games, but he should be played confidently against a Raiders team he gashed for 431 yards and two TDs earlier this season. For an idea of how porous Oakland's pass defense was in Week 12, read the Browns-Dolphins item in this column. ... Rivers' likely success doesn't mean that any Chargers pass catchers are reliable plays outside of Antonio Gates, who is expected to play through dual foot injuries for a second straight week. Malcom Floyd, obviously still hobbled, was in for all of 13 snaps against the Colts while seeing one catch-less target. Vincent Jackson is out. Seyi Ajirotutu hasn't topped 16 yards since Week 9, and Legedu Naanee is a better blocker than receiver. Maybe next week we'll know more.
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Carolina @ Seattle
Jimmy Clausen has quietly looked more comfortable in his last two outings, only committing one turnover and averaging a respectable 6.8 YPA. He's not ready to save the Panthers' receivers yet, but did make enough tough, chain-moving throws last week to give Carolina a shot to beat Cleveland. They would've, had John Kasay not missed a pair of field goals. Clausen's ability to generate ball movement is most promising for the Panthers' running game, which also happens to have a tremendously favorable matchup this week. The collapsing Seahawks run defense has surrendered 5.1 yards per carry since losing LE Red Bryant for the season six games ago, after allowing just 3.3 with Bryant in the lineup. Seattle allowed the Chiefs to pile up 270 rushing yards last week alone. Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart are both solid bets for 15 touches and worthwhile RB2s. Goodson gets the edge in PPR leagues. Stewart has a better chance to score.
Steve Smith has gone over 47 yards once since Week 2 and is scoreless in nine straight. He's still a safe bet to lead Carolina in receptions and receiving yards on a weekly basis, but that's not saying a whole lot. ... Rookie David Gettis started last week, but wasn't targeted once. He's apparently not a good sleeper, after all. ... Brandon LaFell was much more visible against the Browns. Again, not saying much. Gettis' fellow rookie saw four targets, catching two for 37 yards.
Carolina's run defense is bad, but it's not going to make a difference for Marshawn Lynch. Quite possibly the worst running back in football, Lynch is averaging 2.98 yards per carry in his last five games while also experiencing a reduction in touches in three straight weeks. On second thought, the Bills got the better end of that pre-deadline trade. .... Panthers-Seahawks is going to contend with Steelers-Ravens for the lowest scoring game of the week, which makes most participants in it undesirable fantasy options. Matt Hasselbeck included. Carolina has the seventh best pass defense in football, and will only get better with LCB Chris Gamble recapturing a full-time role after his Week 12 benching for skipping a team meeting. Gamble is the Panthers' top cover corner.
Ben Obomanu has capitalized on opportunity provided him by Mike Williams' (foot) absence for 10 catches, 246 yards, and two TDs in his last two games. Obomanu's fantasy start-ability is directly corrolated to Williams' availability, and Big Mike is a game-time decision. For a receiver with so little track record, Obomanu will be difficult to wait on in fantasy leagues in a late game. Start your early-game options if they're good. ... Like last year, John Carlson has devolved into a blocker as opposed to pass-catching tight end due to offensive line deficiences. With one score on the season and an average of 6.5 yards in his last four games, he's not worth a fantasy roster spot.
Dallas @ Indianapolis
Combine poor protection with an inability to run the ball, and even Peyton Manning is going to struggle. Forced to single-handedly carry his offense, Manning has seven picks in his last two efforts. The good news is that he's still shown the ability to rough up poor pass defenses, dropping 396 yards and four TDs on the Pats' 32nd-ranked unit in Week 11. Like New England, Dallas struggles with the pass, having allowed the most passing scores and yards per attempt in the NFC. Owners shouldn't hesitate on Manning this week. ... Reggie Wayne's five-catch, 42-yard game in Week 12 was a downer after his 8/107/1 explosion the week before. Wayne's superb route running is still likely to give struggling Cowboys RCB Mike Jenkins fits down the left sideline.
Pierre Garcon has been one of the NFL's worst receivers this season, but he has a nice matchup. Garcon is likely to square off with LCB Terence Newman, who according to Pro Football Focus has given up 12 catches for 184 yards and two TDs in his last two games. In a throw-crazy offense like Indy's, even a drop- and mistake-prone wideout like Garcon is worth a WR3 look against such a bad corner. Garcon has five catches in three straight games. ... Austin Collie's (concussion) availability -- likely a game-time decision -- will determine Blair White's outlook. If Collie is out, White is a must-start WR3. If Collie is in, White won't play much. ... Jacob Tamme is a shoe-in as this week's No. 1 tight end. ... Avoid the Colts' running game. Mike Hart is finally coming back, and will share carries with Donald Brown behind a line that doesn't open any holes.
Eight yards in two weeks are highly disconcerting for midseason star Dez Bryant, but he still has six touchdowns in his last seven games and is headed for a bigger role after his Thanksgiving goose egg. Coach Jason Garrett gave Bryant a big vote of confidence Wednesday, comparing him to Michael Irvin. It wouldn't be a surprise if Roy Williams' game-losing Week 12 fumble proves the miscue that Pipps Bryant into the starting lineup for good. ... In a potential shootout, Miles Austin is a rock-solid WR2. He's found pay dirt four times in three games. ... Jason Witten leads the NFL in catches among tight ends and is an every-week starter, regardless of matchup. ... Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling rank Jon Kitna 16th among fantasy quarterbacks for Week 13. The only QB they have ranked behind Kitna that I'd play over him is Sam Bradford.
Averaging 17 touches for 113 total yards since Week 9, Felix Jones is a top-15 RB play against a Colts defense that allows the highest yards-per-carry average (4.86) in the AFC. He's easily the best running game fantasy option in Colts-Cowboys. ... Tashard Choice carries more risk than Jones considering he's only touched the ball 23 times all year and averages just 2.7 yards per carry, but Choice is tentatively expected to take Marion Barber's (calf, out) 10-14 touch-per-game role in the favorable matchup. Choice took over as the Cowboys' goal-line back after Barber's injury on Thanksgiving, executing from a yard out. He's a risk-reward flex in non-PPR leagues.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
Atlanta has zero turnovers since Week 7, a trend that will be tested by a Bucs team that ranks second in interceptions and has turned around its pass rush with ten sacks in the last two games. Tampa's defense did take a big hit in Week 12, losing playmaking rookie FS Cody Grimm for the season. Though a run-first approach is probable, top-ten fantasy QB Matt Ryan has proven a rock-solid start on a weekly basis. He has a 12:2 TD-to-INT ratio and is averaging 259 passing yards in his last six games. ... Roddy White managed just four catches for 49 yards in Atlanta's Week 8 matchup with the Bucs, but the disappointing production was due mostly to an in-game knee sprain that cost him 30 snaps. White is healthy now, and Grimm's absence will help him.
Tony Gonzalez took on a more prominent role in Week 9's Falcons-Bucs in part due to White's missed time in the game, racking up 72 yards on a year-high eight catches. This has been one of Gonzo's worst seasons, but he still ranks seventh among tight ends in fantasy scoring and was targeted frequently by Ryan in the red zone last week. Gonzalez should've had two TDs, but dropped the would-be second. He could also be more featured if Aqib Talib holds White in check. ... Michael Turner is on fire with four games of 100-plus rushing yards in the last five weeks. He had 107 yards and two scores in Week 9. The Bucs rank 27th against the run, allowing 4.68 YPC.
We'll just get the Bucs' Week 9 numbers against the Falcons out of the way now: Josh Freeman -- 189 yards, 2:2 TDs-to-INTs with 26 rushing yards; Mike Williams -- 4/89/1; LeGarrette Blount -- 13/46/0; Cadillac Williams -- 8/13/0, 1/9/0. ... I'm finding it difficult to get excited about any of the Tampa skill players this week, and not just because of their previous modest production against Atlanta. The Falcons' defense is playing well from front four to back four, and Atlanta's offense has the potential to control this game with Turner, keeping time of possession in the favor of Mike Smith's team. The Bucs will not have that ability against the Falcons' No. 6 run defense, which separates these two clubs in the NFC South race. Atlanta has an edge in each critical phase.
Williams would be the best play of the aforementioned four, as he'll spend most of Sunday's game against RCB Dunta Robinson. According to Pro Football Focus, Robinson has allowed a completion percentage of 62.5 into his coverage since returning from a Week 6 concussion, and Williams beat him for a 58-yard TD bomb in Week 9. ... Blount runs very hard, but this matchup is working against him almost as much as his lack of a passing game role. If Blount doesn't find the end zone or top 5.0 YPC on the 13-18 carries per game he's getting, he's essentially a fantasy negative. Cadillac has taken a clear backseat on early downs, but is still hurting Blount's value.
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St. Louis @ Arizona
The Cards entered 2010 with no intentions of playing fifth-round rookie John Skelton, but his time is nearing, regardless of coach Ken Whisehunt's insistence to the contrary. Derek Anderson is 0-4 since Week 9, completing a miserable 51.97 percent of his passes with a 2:5 TD-to-turnover ratio in his last three games. His Week 12 meltdown certainly won't help, and D.A. showed in Cleveland just how bad he really can be with his confidence shot. It's to that point. ... Anderson's struggles are a major concern for Steve Breaston, who has one touchdown on the season and is coming off a two-grab, 22-yard game. Avoid the situation and look elsewhere for a low-end WR3.
Larry Fitzgerald finished Week 12 with 15 targets. Only four were complete -- always a risk with Anderson -- but at least Fitz has continued to be Arizona's featured player. He's still seen double-digit targets in every game dating back to Arizona's Week 6 bye. Regardless of D.A.'s inaccuracies and any particular pass defense, Fitzgerald is locked in as an every-week starter. Entering last Monday night, Fitzgerald had four straight games of at least 90 yards or a score. ... Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower get an easier matchup this week than what they faced against San Francisco last time out, but we're still in a holding pattern on their fantasy start-ability. Wells hasn't topped eight touches in a game since Week 8. Hightower just isn't a very good player.
I touched on the Rams in this column's intro, so I'll keep this brief. Despite his struggles on the ground, Steven Jackson is a must-start against such a bad rush defense. OC Pat Shurmur hasn't stopped feeding him the rock. ... Danny Amendola had 67 yards on six grabs in the Rams' Week 1 meeting with Arizona, and his role has expanded since. Expect seven grabs, if not more, as a quality PPR WR3. ... Sam Bradford has an 11:1 TD-to-INT ratio with a 218-yard average and 97.1 QB rating in his last six games. He needs more attempts to be a high-upside start, but is at least flirting with low-end QB1 value. ... Danario Alexander may be the NFL's most productive per-snap wideout. He only played 20 downs last week, but emerged from the game injury-free. It's natural to expect Alexander's role to grow considering he's St. Louis' most explosive wideout . If "D.X." can hit the 40-snap plateau, he immediately becomes an every-week WR3 in non-PPR formats.
At least the Rams had an excuse last year -- they lacked talent. The Cardinals don't lack talent.
They've just given up.
As ESPN's Jon Gruden noted during Monday night's Cards-Niners broadcast, Arizona's defense couldn't stop the run with three nose tackles on field. First-round pick Dan Williams (6'3/330), Gabe Watson (6'4/330), and Alan Branch (6'5/340) were gashed for 136 yards and a touchdown by 31-year-old Brian Westbrook, who entered the game with five rushing attempts on the season and leg joints so shot that he barely found a taker on the 2010 free agent market. 49ers stalwart left tackle Joe Staley was inactive, and center David Baas suffered a concussion during the game.
Cardinals defenders didn't play to the whistle. ESPN's Merril Hoge observed Arizona's outside linebackers "getting out of their stance and just putting their hands up like they were trying to knock (the football) down," with zero effort on the pass rush. Even on the offensive side, quarterback Derek Anderson and guard Deuce Lutui were caught laughing on the sideline.
The end result? A sixth straight loss. It's almost hard to fathom a coach like Whisenhunt losing his team, but defensive coordinator Bill Davis has definitely lost his defense.
The Cardinals now play on a short week against a Rams team just beginning to hit its stride. A healthy Danario Alexander has added a new dimension to St. Louis' passing offense, providing big-play ability, a deep threat, and physical run-after-catch skills. Sam Bradford doesn't miss, and his offensive line is as injury-free as it's been all season.
The Rams, in theory, could gut Arizona's No. 31 run defense with Steven Jackson. But St. Louis' rushing offense has been a weak link for much of the season. The Rams rank 20th in rushing offense, and are tied for third to last in the NFC in yards-per-carry average. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur's decision to run on seven of the Rams' final nine offensive snaps of last week's game nearly cost his team a win. The seven rushing attempts gained a pathetic 11 yards.
Bradford has surpassed Jackson as the Rams' best offensive player.
Starting a rookie quarterback (Bradford) or receiver (Alexander) in a fantasy week as important as this isn't typically recommended, and isn't an approach to be taken by owners with established studs. But if you're struggling at QB or WR3, you could do a lot worse than Bradford or Alexander in an indoor game against a defense that ranks 25th against the pass, generates little-to-no pressure, and appears to have rolled over.
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Jacksonville @ Tennessee
In a quarterback-driven league, offenses tend to shut down when they don't pose any semblance of a passing-game threat. It's exactly what happened to the Titans in Week 12. Chris Johnson was the biggest loser, finishing with career lows in carries (7) and rushing yards (5) as the Titans fell behind 14-0 with five minutes left in the first half and were dominated 40:20 in time of possession. 38-year-old quarterbacks coming off leg muscle injuries don't typically light up the box score, but Kerry Collins' return will give defenses a lot more to think about than Rusty Smith did. Johnson will remain the focal point of Tennessee's game plan against a Jaguars defense that ranks 20th against the run and has given up the second most rushing touchdowns in the AFC. Jack Del Rio's team was gutted for 177 total yards and a 5.91 YPC average by Giants backs last week.
Whether or not Randy Moss still possesses elite talent remains up for debate, but anyone who's caught his first three games as a Titan would agree that he's not giving enough effort. He didn't even jump for a fourth-quarter touchdown opportunity on a slightly high pass against the Texans, and is now averaging 1.3 catches for 16.3 yards with Tennessee. (And the Titans have lost all three contests.) The Jags' pass defense presents a favorable matchup, but we said the same about Washington and Houston. Moss is barely worth a roster spot. ... Collins' return may help Nate Washington and Bo Scaife, but competitive owners should be able to do better. Even on far fewer snaps, Danario Alexander is a better option than Washington. Scaife isn't on the radar.
Maurice Jones-Drew leads the league with 120.3 rushing yards per game in the last month, and two of his last three opponents boast top-ten run defenses. He's matchup proof, although MJD won't have to be against the Titans. Tennessee's front four has fallen apart recently due to numerous injuries, allowing Redskins and Texans backs to pile up 293 rushing yards in the last two games. With David Garrard struggling again, Jones-Drew is a safe bet to be Jacksonville's offensive focal point Sunday. ... Marcedes Lewis had a slow Week 12 (3/36/0), but you're not going to find many healthy tight ends on pace for 12 touchdowns floating around fantasy football. Only the Texans and Panthers have given up more yards to tight ends than the Titans this year.
Garrard went on a tear in Weeks 4-10, but the streakiest passer in football has gone back in the gutter in his last two games, completing just 57.9 percent of his throws (he's at 66.3 for the season) with a 2:6 touchdown pass-to-turnover ratio. He's not a QB1 option against a Titans pass defense that has piled up 15 INTs while allowing just 14 TDs, and permits a measly 6.7 yards per attempt. Tennessee is also tied for second in the league in sacks. ... Back to being equally mediocre WR3 bets, Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas aren't intriguing plays in this difficult matchup. Sims-Walker is still battling through a high ankle sprain, and will square off mostly with Titans RCB Cortland Finnegan. In Week 6, Finnegan held MSW to 16 yards on two catches.
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Washington @ NY Giants
The Giants created a healthy, competitive situation at tailback by "demoting" Ahmad Bradshaw for Brandon Jacobs prior to Week 12. After the two combined for 170 total yards against a Jaguars defense that held Peyton Hillis to a season-low 2.29 yards per carry in the previous week, coach Tom Coughlin stated that Bradshaw remains "very much in the hunt" for the first-team role. In other words, the two backs are still battling for the job. Both Bradshaw and Jacobs will be safe bets for 15-plus touches against a Washington defense that ranks 26th against the run and gives up a league-high 4.89 yards per carry. Down three of their top four wideouts, the G-Men are clearly targeting a run-heavy approach. Running backs received 28 touches in New York's Week 12 win over Jacksonville, while Eli Manning threw 24 passes to tie for his fewest of the season.
Despite the volume reduction, Manning atoned with his seventh straight multi-touchdown game and a season-high 9.42 yards-per-attempt average. He's going to beat up on poor secondaries regardless of the altered offense. The Skins are 29th in pass defense and appear likely to be without both top cover corner Carlos Rogers (hamstrings) and SS LaRon Landry (Achilles). Eli's upside is curtailed, but he's still a quality QB1. ... Owners fooled into jumping on the Derek Hagan hype train are hopefully off by now. Hagan started at flanker, but had 21 yards on four targets last week. ... Mario Manningham (3/61/1) and Kevin Boss (3/74/1) will be the top bets for receiving yards and scores in New York's pass-catching corps until Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith return. Boss' passing-game role has clearly expanded. He saw a team-high eight targets last week.
The Giants have given up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends in the NFC, which is cause for concern for Chris Cooley. Though his touchdown total is highly disappointing, Cooley has stayed consistent and ranks ninth at his position in scoring. The matchup is difficult, but Cooley is an every-week starter in a horribly down year for tight ends. You'd have to have a truly awesome alternative to bench him. ... It's fair to wonder if Santana Moss' hamstring and knee woes affected him in a favorable matchup with the Vikings last week that produced just five catches for 40 yards. Moss did play a full host of snaps; the Skins just didn't possess the ball much. Perhaps he isn't a confident WR2 this week, but he's a must-start WR3. Where else are the passes going to go?
Donovan McNabb ranks 20th among quarterbacks in fantasy points and hasn't even capitalized on favorable matchups this season. He's probably on most waiver wires at this point, and isn't an option against the Giants' No. 1 pass defense. ... James Davis and Keiland Williams will share the Redskins' backfield against New York's top-ten run defense in an obvious situation to avoid. Coach Mike Shanahan clearly has no faith in Williams, whose poor instincts and tendency to run into the back of his blockers make the rookie an unnatural fit for Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme. Davis has looked good in practice and preseason, but routinely flops in real games. The Skins have to be praying that Ryan Torain (hamstring) returns for Week 14 against Tampa.
San Francisco @ Green Bay
The Packers made good on their vow to use more five-receiver sets in Week 12. Aaron Rodgers, who's begged for the run-and-shoot all year, capitalized on the quarterback-friendly system with season highs in passing and rushing yards. Rodgers has overtaken Philip Rivers as the No. 1 fantasy QB, and is likely to remain the top performer the rest of the way. ... James Jones is averaging four receptions for 64 yards with two TDs in five games since Donald Driver's Week 6 quad injury. Driver has a scoreless 57 yards on six catches in his last four appearances. Even Jordy Nelson has put up better numbers than Driver, who was safe to drop several weeks ago.
The 49ers are far better at stopping the run than the pass, so the pass-first Packers will pose a severe mismatch. With clear skies in the Lambeau forecast, expect fireworks from Rodgers & Co. ... Jones played a season-high 72.1 percent of the offensive snaps in the new formation last week. He's the Packers' second best bet for receiving yards and scores. ... Greg Jennings is averaging over six catches for 107 yards with six touchdowns in his last six games. Behind Dwayne Bowe, you couldn't name a hotter fantasy wideout. ... Regressing sharply since a flash-in-the-pan Weeks 5-7 stretch, Brandon Jackson is averaging 2.90 YPC in his last four games and has been yanked off goal-line duty. He's a very poor option against the 49ers' No. 8 run defense.
With Frank Gore done for the year, the 49ers will turn to a committee backfield. Though Brian Westbrook had the "hot hand" in Week 12 and received 23 touches to Anthony Dixon's 15, Dixon was first off the bench immediately following Gore's injury and executed for the 49ers' lone goal-line score after three Westbrook runs down to Arizona's one-yard line. Mike Singletary's staff is well aware that a 31-year-old with chronic history of knee and ankle issues is a poor bet to hold up on feature back carries. Westbrook may be the best bet for total yards in Week 13, but Dixon is a stronger choice for touchdowns and sustained value down the stretch. Underrated in the passing game with impressively quick feet for a big man, Dixon will have the workload all to himself once Westbrook goes down again. In my opinion, Dixon should've been this week's top waiver pickup.
Troy Smith is 3-1 as a starter, but hasn't helped Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis much. The coaching staff simply gives Smith no leeway, as he's averaged 25.3 pass attempts in four starts. Not even Monday night's first-quarter 38-yard missile to Crabtree in the back of the end zone earned Smith more rope; two possessions later the 49ers were handing off to Westbrook on third-and-eight. Singletary's ultra-conservative mission is killing Crabtree and Davis' upsides. ... A bum ankle has plenty to do with it, but Davis is averaging two catches for 31.5 yards with no TDs dating back to Week 7. It's not crazy to sit him if you have quality alternatives. ... Crabtree has at least stayed afloat with five touchdowns in his last seven games. The 49ers move him all around the formation, so Crabtree should not be locked into coverage with shutdown RCB Tramon Williams.
Buffalo @ Minnesota
Fred Jackson's mid-to-late season surge conjures up memories of his 2009 campaign, when "F-Jax" emerged from a committee with Marshawn Lynch to pile up an average of 115 total yards in the final six games. This year, Jackson has a whopping six TDs in his last four efforts, to go with 462 total yards in his last three. C.J. Spiller's return and a matchup with Minnesota's top-five run defense are concerns, but Jackson posted 22.3 fantasy points against Pittsburgh's No. 1 unit last week, and in all likelihood Spiller will focus on bringing back punts. It's not going to be easy to bench one of the league's hottest running backs in what could quietly turn into a shootout. ... Lee Evans has a great on-paper matchup with the Vikings' RCB combo of Asher Allen and rookie Chris Cook, but is difficult to trust with an average of two catches per game in the last month.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has rediscovered a hot hand with five touchdowns and 581 yards in his last two games, numbers that would improve to six and 621 had Steve Johnson not dropped a perfectly placed, would-be game-winning bomb in the back of the Pittsburgh end zone last week. Playing indoors certainly doesn't hurt Fitzpatrick's chances of a big game, and nor does a below-average Vikings pass defense that is easily beaten at whatever area of the secondary LCB/slot corner Antoine Winfield isn't occupying. ... The Bills will spread out Minnesota's defense, forcing Winfield inside to cover Donald Jones or David Nelson. Johnson ranked second in the NFL last week in targets (only Dwayne Bowe had more) and should be played with plenty of confidence as a WR2.
It should come as no surprise that a team with a struggling quarterback and a defensive-minded interim coach has gone run heavy. Despite Adrian Peterson's first-half, game-ending ankle injury in Week 12, the Vikings stayed with the ground attack en route to a 38:23 run-to-pass ratio. With Peterson fully expected to play against Buffalo -- and Toby Gerhart having proved his mettle as a more than adequate fill-in, a similar approach is highly likely against Buffalo's No. 32 run defense. ... I could go on and on about Brett Favre's favorable matchup, but he's simply not playing well or throwing enough in the revised offense to be a quality play outside of two-quarterback leagues.
Visanthe Shiancoe (3/54/0), Percy Harvin (5/32/0), and Sidney Rice (1/20/0) all had slow games in Leslie Frazier's debut. All have good matchups, but none sticks out as an elite play with the pass attempts in decline. Rice is inferior to Harvin, with whom Favre clearly has better chemistry. Favre hit on all five of his targets to Harvin last week. ... Meanwhile, Rice has hauled in just four of his 14 targets from Favre since returning two games ago. We'd like to see a better rapport before recommending Rice. It doesn't help that Rice continues to miss practice as a "precaution." When are the two supposed to get on the same page? ... As for Shiancoe, only the Texans defend tight ends more poorly than the Bills, who've allowed a league-high eight touchdowns to the position.
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New Orleans @ Cincinnati
The Saints' defense hasn't been nearly as opportunistic as last year's group, but a Week 13 date with Carson Palmer could turn that around. Palmer has multiple interceptions in each of his last three games, and is likely to remain pick-prone going forward considering his consistently duck-like throw trajectory. Perhaps he'll pile up some garbage-time points, but Palmer is only worth a look in fantasy leagues that don't penalize for turnovers. ... Jermaine Gresham has crashed back to earth since his fluky 9/85/1 line in Week 10, failing to top two receptions in two games since. He has five drops in the last five weeks, far too many for a tight end averaging 8.3 yards a catch. Competitive owners should have higher standards for fantasy starters, even in desperate times.
Darrelle Revis shut him down for 17 yards on three Thanksgiving night catches, but Terrell Owens should rebound Sunday. T.O. (6'3/224) poses a physical mismatch for Saints LCB Jabari Greer (5'11/180), who was torched by Seattle's Big Mike Williams two weeks ago. "BMW" racked up 109 yards on six catches in that game despite playing through a painful second-half foot sprain. ... Chad Ochocinco will spend most of the day against RCB Tracy Porter. Ocho is simply no longer athletic enough to handle Porter, who according to Pro Football Focus has been beaten for just one receiving score all year. Ochocinco has topped 41 yards once in his last five games ... The long week after a Thursday game should benefit Cedric Benson, but the former Bear is averaging just 3.53 yards per carry since New Orleans' Week 6 bye. Owners had also better hope that the Bengals don't fall behind a red-hot Saints team early. Benson leaves in all passing situations.
Drew Brees is on a tear in his last six games, throwing for 14 touchdowns and averaging 318.5 yards. He's benefiting from a more pass-happy offense. Whereas the Saints threw 32.2 times per game in Weeks 1-6, Brees has averaged 45 attempts since Week 7. The 2010 Sportsman of the Year won't struggle for another big effort against an injury-depleted Bengals pass defense. ... Pierre Thomas (ankle) wouldn't be a fantasy option in his first game back from a nine-week layoff, but his potential return is enough reason to sit the Saints' other rushers. Goal-line back Chris Ivory only got the ball seven times on Thanksgiving, and Julius Jones led the way with a measly 13 touches. Thomas threatens to make both Ivory and Jones irrelevant in the final five contests.
Reggie Bush was a tease against Dallas, playing 15 snaps with two touches. Clearly rusty, he also fumbled away a third-quarter punt and dropped a potential touchdown pass. Bush's role will grow, but he's not playable until we see it. ... As Bush gets more playing time, Lance Moore's will lessen. ... Marques Colston is averaging eight catches for 94 yards with four TDs in his last five games. Despite a slow start, Colston is on pace for a top-16 fantasy receiver finish for the fourth time in his five-year career. ... Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson continue to trade off big weeks. It was Henderson on Thanksgiving with 97 yards, though Meachem is typically the slightly better gamble. ... Jimmy Graham had two drops last Thursday, one resulting in an interception. It's not going to help his case for increased snaps, particularly with Jeremy Shockey coming back.
Denver @ Kansas City
Vegas projects Broncos-Chiefs as this week's highest scoring Sunday game, so get your studs going. Though Denver-K.C. in Week 10 will be an inexact indicator for Week 13 lineup decisions considering the Broncos' lopsided win, Kyle Orton's numbers are closest to reliable because they came when the game was still close. Orton threw for 296 yards and four TDs, with three of the scores coming in the first quarter. He also gets a healthy boost with Chiefs shutdown LCB Brandon Flowers battling a hamstring injury. Flowers is a game-time decision. ... Brandon Lloyd is set for another date with burnable RCB Brandon Carr and whomever Romeo Crennel elects to trot out at free safety. Routinely destroying double teams, Lloyd is lock-safe top-five receiver start.
It was nice to see Eddie Royal confirm that he can still play in Week 12 against the Rams, but consider that 3/57/1 of his 6/74/1 line came on one drive in fourth-quarter comeback mode. He's not worthy of WR3 consideration this week. ... Jabar Gaffney continues to underwhelm without a solitary game over 59 yards and just one touchdown since Week 6. If Flowers plays, Gaffney will be matched up with him for most of the contest. ... A healthy Knowshon Moreno has established himself as an every-week starter and borderline RB1 with 118 or more total yards and a score in three straight games. He's impressively done it against back-to-back-to-back top-13 run defenses.
Rotoworld caught some preseason flak for projecting Jamaal Charles as a top-seven fantasy RB, but he's exceeded even our expectations. Ranked fifth at the position, Charles is averaging an otherworldly 125.5 total yards per game. He also got five red-zone touches to Thomas Jones' three in Week 12, executing for K.C.'s lone rushing score from three yards out. Overall, Charles gained 23 yards on five carries inside the Seattle 20. Jones managed four total yards on two runs and one catch. The vastly superior option regardless of down and distance, Charles totaled 121 yards and a TD at Denver in Week 10. ... In the aforementioned game, Jones only had 22 yards on five touches. His reduced role was due to game flow (Kansas City fell behind big), but Jones remains a dicey flex play because he relies so heavily on volume. He doesn't hit any big plays.
Box-score watchers may see Dwayne Bowe's 13/186/2 line from his earlier meeting with Denver and consider him a shoe-in for another monster effort. I certainly wouldn't recommend sitting fantasy's hottest receiver over the past seven weeks, but would caution to approach that game with a big grain of salt. Champ Bailey shadowed Bowe in Week 10, but gave him a huge cushion in off coverage after the Broncos jumped out to a 35-0 lead. Taking nothing away from Bowe, he's scattered two drops among a league-high 70 targets dating back to Week 5, and continues to obliterate single coverage with opponents focused on stopping Charles and Jones. None of it's working. ... Matt Cassel benefited from a perfect storm of Bailey's cushion and throw-it mode after the monster early deficit in the Week 10 game. He's a fine low-end QB1, but won't repeat his 469 yards and four touchdowns unless the Chiefs' defense takes the first two quarters off again.
Chicago @ Detroit
Shaun Hill's fractured finger is a major concern, but there is hope for Calvin Johnson. Replacing Hill after a fractured forearm in Week 6, Drew Stanton performed serviceably in a tough setting at the Giants' New Meadowlands Stadium, completing 19-of-34 passes for 222 yards, a touchdown, one interception, and 30 yards on three scrambles. The improvising Stanton completed four of his five targets to Megatron for 125 yards, including an 87-yard scoring bomb. Arguably more aggressive than Hill and undoubtedly more athletic with a stronger arm, Stanton should be able to deliver the ball to Detroit's top receiver. ... It will be interesting to see if the Lions scale back the offense. They didn't for Hill, as only the Colts have more pass attempts across the NFL. Either way, the Maurice Morris-Aaron Brown-Jahvid Best rotation should be avoided against the Bears' NFC-best run defense. Regardless of Morris' two Thanksgiving gimme scores on the goal line.
Stanton has thrown 36 passes this season. His targets behind Megatron: Brandon Pettigrew -- 7; Nate Burleson -- 7; Bryant Johnson -- 6; Tony Scheffler -- 4; Jahvid Best -- 4. ... Pettigrew, in fact, has a team-high five receptions from Stanton (more than Calvin), though Scheffler's return from a ribs injury won't help him. It's still hard to fathom benching Pettigrew when he ranks second in the league in receptions among tight ends and could be the inexperienced Stanton's "safety valve." The Bears have also allowed the fifth most catches to tight ends in the NFL. ... As the Lions' slot receiver, Burleson could also see his fair share of underneath targets. Unlike Johnson and Pettigrew, however, it's difficult to stay confident about Burleson when he lacks elite talent.
Detroit's pass defense looked like one of the NFL's most improved units at the halfway point, but it's crumbling. In-fighting and finger-pointing have ensued among Lions defenders after they gave up seven touchdowns compared to no interceptions and a 76.5 completion rate to Jon Kitna and Tom Brady in Weeks 11-12. Heating up in his own right, Jay Cutler suddenly has the look of a top-ten quarterback play against a Detroit defense expected to be minus top DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (neck). Cutler is deadly with a clean pocket. ... If Cutler has time to throw, Bears No. 1 receiver Johnny Knox also becomes much more dangerous. The deep threat is on pace for over 1,000 yards, and is worth a WR3 play in all fantasy leagues for this domed game at Ford Field.
KVB's absence is also a plus for Matt Forte, whose outlook is on the rise in the Bears' ball-control offense. Forte is averaging 21 touches per game in the last month, and posted 201 total yards with two TDs in his last date with Detroit. The Lions rank 24th against the run, but not even that number shows how bad they've been. Their 4.62 YPC allowed is the fourth worst in football, and their 13 rushing scores allowed are third most. ... Greg Olsen has scored in three of his last four games and is never a bad bet for a touchdown. Just don't expect much else. ... Despite a season-high 86 yards in Week 12, Devin Hester is only an option in return-yardage leagues. He just isn't a natural wideout, getting the vast majority of his receiving yards on broken plays.
Cleveland @ Miami
In his first start back after a benching and knee injury, Chad Henne did well to expose an injury-plagued and generally failing Raiders' defense for a season-best 10.2 yards-per-pass attempt, 307 yards, and two touchdowns in Week 12. Nnamdi Asomugha entered the game having given up 87 yards on five receptions all year. The Fins attacked Asomugha and his bum ankle, pinning four completions for 65 yards on the shutdown corner, as well as a holding flag. Much of the rest of Henne's yardage came against rookie CB Walter McFadden, playing in his third career game. This isn't to tear apart Henne's performance -- he played quite well -- but keep all of the factors in mind before starting him against the Browns. ... Brandon Marshall's (hamstring) return isn't good news for anyone, from Davone Bess on down to fantasy owners. It's hard to imagine playing Marshall when he risks in-game aggravation of the injury and wasn't even producing before it.
The Dolphins' offense is inherently run-heavy, so targets are precious for receivers like Bess, who barely averages over 10 yards a reception and rarely scores. He'll lose them to Marshall, so don't think Bess' season-high 111 yards from Week 12 are a sign of things to come. ... Brian Hartline is a fine player with unsung skills, but it'd be nice to see how Miami's offense looks with Marshall and Henne back before using any members of conservative OC Dan Henning's passing attack. One member should have a decent game, but he's going to be awfully difficult to pinpoint. ... The Fins got their running game back on track last week, with both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams receiving over 20 touches and each hitting 85-plus total yards. Williams got most of his on a late 45-yard touchdown. They're both low-end RB2s against an above-average Browns run defense.
As if you needed another reason to use No. 2 overall fantasy player Peyton Hillis, Dolphins run-plugging ILB Channing Crowder (knee) is expected to miss Sunday's game. The Fins have a stout run defense, but were highly susceptible up the gut when Crowder missed four games earlier this season. According to Pro Football Focus, Crowder had one of the highest grades in run defense on the roster since returning. Hillis has seven TDs in his last four games, averaging 28.5 touches for 166.5 total yards over that span. Somehow, he's getting stronger late in the year.
With Jake Delhomme taking the reins once again, don't start Ben Watson, Mohamed Massaquoi, Joshua Cribbs, Evan Moore, or Brian Robiskie. Do start the Dolphins' fantasy defense.
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[SIZE=+1]4:05PM ET Game[/SIZE]
Oakland @ San Diego
Darren McFadden's production has declined steadily in four straight games since returning from injury, finally bottoming out in an eight-carry, two-yard Week 12. The Oakland Tribune has suggested Raiders coaches are "concerned that he's not running as he did before." Although he's stayed effective as a receiver, McFadden's yards-per-carry average and yards after contact have also slipped. Assuming his previous hamstring strain wasn't aggravated somewhere along the line, McFadden should rediscover success in one of the most favorable running game schedules during the fantasy playoffs. In Week 13, however, deep-pocketed owners wouldn't be crazy to sit McFadden for viable alternatives. The Chargers rank third against the run and permit just 3.52 yards per carry. They could also jump out to an early lead, reducing Oakland's rushing attempts.
It's hard to trust Raiders passing game members against San Diego's No. 2 pass defense. The Bolts began the season playing one of the easiest quarterback slates in football, but their pass-rushing and secondary dominance has continued into a ridiculous five-game stretch that's included matchups with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, and Kyle Orton. Potential All-Pro LCB Quentin Jammer's group has held that fab four to a 4:6 TD-to-INT ratio, 232 passing yards per game, and a weak 72.8 QB rating. ... Jacoby Ford is again the flavor of the week with over 100 receiving yards in two of his last three games. No one doubts his explosiveness, but a player with such a limited track record at receiver is difficult to count on in such a tough matchup. ... Up-and-down flanker Louis Murphy will square off with Jammer in this one and isn't an option.
Quick-footed with speed to reach the perimeter, Ryan Mathews' return has the potential to help San Diego during the stretch run. This is still Mike Tolbert's backfield. The Bolts' power-running system simply moves more smoothly with Tolbert in the lineup, and the converted fullback has all but put the offense on his back in the last two games, with Philip Rivers throwing for back-to-back season-lows in passing yardage while Tolbert ran the Broncos and Colts into the ground. Those performances won't be forgotten, especially against a Raiders defense that is most susceptible on the ground. Oakland's 28th-ranked unit serves up 4.44 YPC. Tolbert can no longer expect 25 carries a game, but he's going to remain the feature back. Mathews isn't a fantasy option yet.
Rivers' attempts and yards are down in his last two games, but he should be played confidently against a Raiders team he gashed for 431 yards and two TDs earlier this season. For an idea of how porous Oakland's pass defense was in Week 12, read the Browns-Dolphins item in this column. ... Rivers' likely success doesn't mean that any Chargers pass catchers are reliable plays outside of Antonio Gates, who is expected to play through dual foot injuries for a second straight week. Malcom Floyd, obviously still hobbled, was in for all of 13 snaps against the Colts while seeing one catch-less target. Vincent Jackson is out. Seyi Ajirotutu hasn't topped 16 yards since Week 9, and Legedu Naanee is a better blocker than receiver. Maybe next week we'll know more.
[SIZE=+1]4:15PM ET Games[/SIZE]
Carolina @ Seattle
Jimmy Clausen has quietly looked more comfortable in his last two outings, only committing one turnover and averaging a respectable 6.8 YPA. He's not ready to save the Panthers' receivers yet, but did make enough tough, chain-moving throws last week to give Carolina a shot to beat Cleveland. They would've, had John Kasay not missed a pair of field goals. Clausen's ability to generate ball movement is most promising for the Panthers' running game, which also happens to have a tremendously favorable matchup this week. The collapsing Seahawks run defense has surrendered 5.1 yards per carry since losing LE Red Bryant for the season six games ago, after allowing just 3.3 with Bryant in the lineup. Seattle allowed the Chiefs to pile up 270 rushing yards last week alone. Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart are both solid bets for 15 touches and worthwhile RB2s. Goodson gets the edge in PPR leagues. Stewart has a better chance to score.
Steve Smith has gone over 47 yards once since Week 2 and is scoreless in nine straight. He's still a safe bet to lead Carolina in receptions and receiving yards on a weekly basis, but that's not saying a whole lot. ... Rookie David Gettis started last week, but wasn't targeted once. He's apparently not a good sleeper, after all. ... Brandon LaFell was much more visible against the Browns. Again, not saying much. Gettis' fellow rookie saw four targets, catching two for 37 yards.
Carolina's run defense is bad, but it's not going to make a difference for Marshawn Lynch. Quite possibly the worst running back in football, Lynch is averaging 2.98 yards per carry in his last five games while also experiencing a reduction in touches in three straight weeks. On second thought, the Bills got the better end of that pre-deadline trade. .... Panthers-Seahawks is going to contend with Steelers-Ravens for the lowest scoring game of the week, which makes most participants in it undesirable fantasy options. Matt Hasselbeck included. Carolina has the seventh best pass defense in football, and will only get better with LCB Chris Gamble recapturing a full-time role after his Week 12 benching for skipping a team meeting. Gamble is the Panthers' top cover corner.
Ben Obomanu has capitalized on opportunity provided him by Mike Williams' (foot) absence for 10 catches, 246 yards, and two TDs in his last two games. Obomanu's fantasy start-ability is directly corrolated to Williams' availability, and Big Mike is a game-time decision. For a receiver with so little track record, Obomanu will be difficult to wait on in fantasy leagues in a late game. Start your early-game options if they're good. ... Like last year, John Carlson has devolved into a blocker as opposed to pass-catching tight end due to offensive line deficiences. With one score on the season and an average of 6.5 yards in his last four games, he's not worth a fantasy roster spot.
Dallas @ Indianapolis
Combine poor protection with an inability to run the ball, and even Peyton Manning is going to struggle. Forced to single-handedly carry his offense, Manning has seven picks in his last two efforts. The good news is that he's still shown the ability to rough up poor pass defenses, dropping 396 yards and four TDs on the Pats' 32nd-ranked unit in Week 11. Like New England, Dallas struggles with the pass, having allowed the most passing scores and yards per attempt in the NFC. Owners shouldn't hesitate on Manning this week. ... Reggie Wayne's five-catch, 42-yard game in Week 12 was a downer after his 8/107/1 explosion the week before. Wayne's superb route running is still likely to give struggling Cowboys RCB Mike Jenkins fits down the left sideline.
Pierre Garcon has been one of the NFL's worst receivers this season, but he has a nice matchup. Garcon is likely to square off with LCB Terence Newman, who according to Pro Football Focus has given up 12 catches for 184 yards and two TDs in his last two games. In a throw-crazy offense like Indy's, even a drop- and mistake-prone wideout like Garcon is worth a WR3 look against such a bad corner. Garcon has five catches in three straight games. ... Austin Collie's (concussion) availability -- likely a game-time decision -- will determine Blair White's outlook. If Collie is out, White is a must-start WR3. If Collie is in, White won't play much. ... Jacob Tamme is a shoe-in as this week's No. 1 tight end. ... Avoid the Colts' running game. Mike Hart is finally coming back, and will share carries with Donald Brown behind a line that doesn't open any holes.
Eight yards in two weeks are highly disconcerting for midseason star Dez Bryant, but he still has six touchdowns in his last seven games and is headed for a bigger role after his Thanksgiving goose egg. Coach Jason Garrett gave Bryant a big vote of confidence Wednesday, comparing him to Michael Irvin. It wouldn't be a surprise if Roy Williams' game-losing Week 12 fumble proves the miscue that Pipps Bryant into the starting lineup for good. ... In a potential shootout, Miles Austin is a rock-solid WR2. He's found pay dirt four times in three games. ... Jason Witten leads the NFL in catches among tight ends and is an every-week starter, regardless of matchup. ... Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling rank Jon Kitna 16th among fantasy quarterbacks for Week 13. The only QB they have ranked behind Kitna that I'd play over him is Sam Bradford.
Averaging 17 touches for 113 total yards since Week 9, Felix Jones is a top-15 RB play against a Colts defense that allows the highest yards-per-carry average (4.86) in the AFC. He's easily the best running game fantasy option in Colts-Cowboys. ... Tashard Choice carries more risk than Jones considering he's only touched the ball 23 times all year and averages just 2.7 yards per carry, but Choice is tentatively expected to take Marion Barber's (calf, out) 10-14 touch-per-game role in the favorable matchup. Choice took over as the Cowboys' goal-line back after Barber's injury on Thanksgiving, executing from a yard out. He's a risk-reward flex in non-PPR leagues.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
Atlanta has zero turnovers since Week 7, a trend that will be tested by a Bucs team that ranks second in interceptions and has turned around its pass rush with ten sacks in the last two games. Tampa's defense did take a big hit in Week 12, losing playmaking rookie FS Cody Grimm for the season. Though a run-first approach is probable, top-ten fantasy QB Matt Ryan has proven a rock-solid start on a weekly basis. He has a 12:2 TD-to-INT ratio and is averaging 259 passing yards in his last six games. ... Roddy White managed just four catches for 49 yards in Atlanta's Week 8 matchup with the Bucs, but the disappointing production was due mostly to an in-game knee sprain that cost him 30 snaps. White is healthy now, and Grimm's absence will help him.
Tony Gonzalez took on a more prominent role in Week 9's Falcons-Bucs in part due to White's missed time in the game, racking up 72 yards on a year-high eight catches. This has been one of Gonzo's worst seasons, but he still ranks seventh among tight ends in fantasy scoring and was targeted frequently by Ryan in the red zone last week. Gonzalez should've had two TDs, but dropped the would-be second. He could also be more featured if Aqib Talib holds White in check. ... Michael Turner is on fire with four games of 100-plus rushing yards in the last five weeks. He had 107 yards and two scores in Week 9. The Bucs rank 27th against the run, allowing 4.68 YPC.
We'll just get the Bucs' Week 9 numbers against the Falcons out of the way now: Josh Freeman -- 189 yards, 2:2 TDs-to-INTs with 26 rushing yards; Mike Williams -- 4/89/1; LeGarrette Blount -- 13/46/0; Cadillac Williams -- 8/13/0, 1/9/0. ... I'm finding it difficult to get excited about any of the Tampa skill players this week, and not just because of their previous modest production against Atlanta. The Falcons' defense is playing well from front four to back four, and Atlanta's offense has the potential to control this game with Turner, keeping time of possession in the favor of Mike Smith's team. The Bucs will not have that ability against the Falcons' No. 6 run defense, which separates these two clubs in the NFC South race. Atlanta has an edge in each critical phase.
Williams would be the best play of the aforementioned four, as he'll spend most of Sunday's game against RCB Dunta Robinson. According to Pro Football Focus, Robinson has allowed a completion percentage of 62.5 into his coverage since returning from a Week 6 concussion, and Williams beat him for a 58-yard TD bomb in Week 9. ... Blount runs very hard, but this matchup is working against him almost as much as his lack of a passing game role. If Blount doesn't find the end zone or top 5.0 YPC on the 13-18 carries per game he's getting, he's essentially a fantasy negative. Cadillac has taken a clear backseat on early downs, but is still hurting Blount's value.
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St. Louis @ Arizona
The Cards entered 2010 with no intentions of playing fifth-round rookie John Skelton, but his time is nearing, regardless of coach Ken Whisehunt's insistence to the contrary. Derek Anderson is 0-4 since Week 9, completing a miserable 51.97 percent of his passes with a 2:5 TD-to-turnover ratio in his last three games. His Week 12 meltdown certainly won't help, and D.A. showed in Cleveland just how bad he really can be with his confidence shot. It's to that point. ... Anderson's struggles are a major concern for Steve Breaston, who has one touchdown on the season and is coming off a two-grab, 22-yard game. Avoid the situation and look elsewhere for a low-end WR3.
Larry Fitzgerald finished Week 12 with 15 targets. Only four were complete -- always a risk with Anderson -- but at least Fitz has continued to be Arizona's featured player. He's still seen double-digit targets in every game dating back to Arizona's Week 6 bye. Regardless of D.A.'s inaccuracies and any particular pass defense, Fitzgerald is locked in as an every-week starter. Entering last Monday night, Fitzgerald had four straight games of at least 90 yards or a score. ... Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower get an easier matchup this week than what they faced against San Francisco last time out, but we're still in a holding pattern on their fantasy start-ability. Wells hasn't topped eight touches in a game since Week 8. Hightower just isn't a very good player.
I touched on the Rams in this column's intro, so I'll keep this brief. Despite his struggles on the ground, Steven Jackson is a must-start against such a bad rush defense. OC Pat Shurmur hasn't stopped feeding him the rock. ... Danny Amendola had 67 yards on six grabs in the Rams' Week 1 meeting with Arizona, and his role has expanded since. Expect seven grabs, if not more, as a quality PPR WR3. ... Sam Bradford has an 11:1 TD-to-INT ratio with a 218-yard average and 97.1 QB rating in his last six games. He needs more attempts to be a high-upside start, but is at least flirting with low-end QB1 value. ... Danario Alexander may be the NFL's most productive per-snap wideout. He only played 20 downs last week, but emerged from the game injury-free. It's natural to expect Alexander's role to grow considering he's St. Louis' most explosive wideout . If "D.X." can hit the 40-snap plateau, he immediately becomes an every-week WR3 in non-PPR formats.
er</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>John Kasay</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
