Vick's Kryptonite
When coach Andy Reid first shockingly turned to Michael Vick instead of Kevin Kolb, one of the theories floated revolved around pass protection. As in, the Eagles' offensive line is so poor that Vick is better suited to avoid all the pressure and make plays.
On Tuesday night, those offensive line concerns reared their ugly head. The Vikings absolutely punished Vick like he was in a Rocky Balboa vs. Apollo Creed bout. They showed blitz up the middle and brought it off the edge. They went after the ball when he ran. They gave him a knee contusion on the game's first play. In the end, it added up to one of the biggest upsets of the year as the Vikings, a 14-point underdog, stunned the Eagles in Philadelphia.
It highlights the only kryptonite that can stop Vick from being the most dominant fantasy player over the next few seasons: Injuries. Vick was limping badly late in the game and was lucky not to suffer a concussion when he got his head beat into the turf. Looking to 2011, his style and the Eagles' offensive line makes him a bigger injury risks than the other elite fantasy players.
As for the near future, the Eagles' loss means they are locked into the No. 3 seed. Look for Vick and DeSean Jackson to rest in Week 17. The Bears are now guaranteed a bye. They may choose to rest some players as well, perhaps for a half.
Vikings vs. Eagles quick slants
Brett Favre may actually try to pass his concussion tests and play in Week 17. ... Adrian Peterson gave owners a scare early with a knee issue, but it was not a concern. He looked really fresh in the second half. ... Sidney Rice suffered a concussion in the third quarter. ... DeSean Jackson was within a hair of some really big plays, but missed on all chances. Reminder of his boom-or-bust style. ... LeSean McCoy is the real deal. Vastly improved in blitz pickup, rarely goes down on first contact. ... Joe Webb with around 17 fantasy points. Not bad for a WR3 in Yahoo Super Bowls. ... Dimitri Patterson was benched in the second half in favor of Joselio Hanson.
Editor's Note: League ends in Week 16? No problem. Pick a new fantasy team just for Week 17 and win real cash with Snapdraft!
<BIG>PRO BOWL</BIG>
FANTASY ALL-VALUE TEAM
With the Pro Bowlers getting announced Tuesday night, I figured it was a good time to look back on the fantasy season with an All-Value team. Not the players that had the best years -- but the players that provided the most value to owners:
QB - Michael Vick: If Kevin Kolb had never gotten hurt, this fantasy season would have been completely different. As it turned out, the vast majority of owners that got their hands on Vick won their league. I would definitely consider him with the No. 1 overall fantasy pick next season despite injury concerns.
RB - Arian Foster: Depending on when your league drafted, you could have stole Foster in the eighth round or reached for him in the third. Either way, it was well worth it. Foster led the league in rushing touchdowns and yards.
RB - Darren McFadden: Michael Bush was still thought to be the starter during fantasy draft season, turning McFadden into a mere flier. Big mistake. His speed/power/hands combination may be unmatched in the league and all he needed to do was sustain health. It happened this year.
WR - Dwayne Bowe: Similar to McFadden, this was a guy that many feared would never "get it." So even though he was the No. 1 receiver in a Charlie Weis offense, he fell to the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. Bowe caught multiple touchdowns in five separate games.
WR - Brandon Lloyd: If you saw one or two highlights of Lloyd this year, you would say his catches are fluky. It seems like every one is of extreme difficulty, between defenders or stretched out fully. But he made catches like that every single week, proving his production and talent level are now equal.
TE - Jason Witten: Easy choice here. The tight end position looked so deep at the beginning of the year, but quickly crumbled as Jermichael Finley, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark fell victim to injury. Witten and mild disappointment Vernon Davis were the only survivors of that tier. Witten was finally used a red-zone weapon, setting a career high in touchdowns with eight.
PRO BOWL SKILL POSITION SNUBS
* Aaron Rodgers deserved the nod over Matt Ryan despite missing a game due to that concussion. A-Rodg had absolutely no running game all year but still ran a vertical offense to perfection. He trailed only Philip Rivers in yards per attempt and his passer rating was 12.1 points higher than Ryan's.
* I would have sent Mike Wallace to Hawaii over Reggie Wayne. Week 15 spoke volumes, as Peyton Manning barely even looked Wayne's way against Nnamdi Asomugha. Yes, Wayne caught almost twice as many balls as Wallace. But Wallace's catches were game-changing plays, while Wayne's were just chain-movers. When healthy, Austin Collie was the best Colts receiver this season.
* Vernon Davis should be going ahead of Tony Gonzalez. T-Gonz simply got the nod based on name value and the Falcons' record. The future Hall of Famer was not a difference maker on the field.
INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Andre Johnson (ankle) remains very questionable. ... Arrelious Benn has a torn ACL, putting his early 2011 status in doubt. ... Reggie Bush (collarbone) will not miss any time. ... Matt Hasselbeck (hip) says he will play Sunday.
DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
The Saints will not rest their starters Sunday. ... Jon Kitna (oblique) will start in Week 17 if healthy, but that looks unlikely. ... Mark Sanchez is now expected to start Sunday. How long he plays is another story. ... Danario Alexander played 43 of 66 snaps Sunday. ... The Chiefs do not plan on resting their starters.
When coach Andy Reid first shockingly turned to Michael Vick instead of Kevin Kolb, one of the theories floated revolved around pass protection. As in, the Eagles' offensive line is so poor that Vick is better suited to avoid all the pressure and make plays.
On Tuesday night, those offensive line concerns reared their ugly head. The Vikings absolutely punished Vick like he was in a Rocky Balboa vs. Apollo Creed bout. They showed blitz up the middle and brought it off the edge. They went after the ball when he ran. They gave him a knee contusion on the game's first play. In the end, it added up to one of the biggest upsets of the year as the Vikings, a 14-point underdog, stunned the Eagles in Philadelphia.
It highlights the only kryptonite that can stop Vick from being the most dominant fantasy player over the next few seasons: Injuries. Vick was limping badly late in the game and was lucky not to suffer a concussion when he got his head beat into the turf. Looking to 2011, his style and the Eagles' offensive line makes him a bigger injury risks than the other elite fantasy players.
As for the near future, the Eagles' loss means they are locked into the No. 3 seed. Look for Vick and DeSean Jackson to rest in Week 17. The Bears are now guaranteed a bye. They may choose to rest some players as well, perhaps for a half.
Vikings vs. Eagles quick slants
Brett Favre may actually try to pass his concussion tests and play in Week 17. ... Adrian Peterson gave owners a scare early with a knee issue, but it was not a concern. He looked really fresh in the second half. ... Sidney Rice suffered a concussion in the third quarter. ... DeSean Jackson was within a hair of some really big plays, but missed on all chances. Reminder of his boom-or-bust style. ... LeSean McCoy is the real deal. Vastly improved in blitz pickup, rarely goes down on first contact. ... Joe Webb with around 17 fantasy points. Not bad for a WR3 in Yahoo Super Bowls. ... Dimitri Patterson was benched in the second half in favor of Joselio Hanson.
Editor's Note: League ends in Week 16? No problem. Pick a new fantasy team just for Week 17 and win real cash with Snapdraft!
<BIG>PRO BOWL</BIG>
FANTASY ALL-VALUE TEAM
With the Pro Bowlers getting announced Tuesday night, I figured it was a good time to look back on the fantasy season with an All-Value team. Not the players that had the best years -- but the players that provided the most value to owners:
QB - Michael Vick: If Kevin Kolb had never gotten hurt, this fantasy season would have been completely different. As it turned out, the vast majority of owners that got their hands on Vick won their league. I would definitely consider him with the No. 1 overall fantasy pick next season despite injury concerns.
RB - Arian Foster: Depending on when your league drafted, you could have stole Foster in the eighth round or reached for him in the third. Either way, it was well worth it. Foster led the league in rushing touchdowns and yards.
RB - Darren McFadden: Michael Bush was still thought to be the starter during fantasy draft season, turning McFadden into a mere flier. Big mistake. His speed/power/hands combination may be unmatched in the league and all he needed to do was sustain health. It happened this year.
WR - Dwayne Bowe: Similar to McFadden, this was a guy that many feared would never "get it." So even though he was the No. 1 receiver in a Charlie Weis offense, he fell to the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. Bowe caught multiple touchdowns in five separate games.
WR - Brandon Lloyd: If you saw one or two highlights of Lloyd this year, you would say his catches are fluky. It seems like every one is of extreme difficulty, between defenders or stretched out fully. But he made catches like that every single week, proving his production and talent level are now equal.
TE - Jason Witten: Easy choice here. The tight end position looked so deep at the beginning of the year, but quickly crumbled as Jermichael Finley, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark fell victim to injury. Witten and mild disappointment Vernon Davis were the only survivors of that tier. Witten was finally used a red-zone weapon, setting a career high in touchdowns with eight.
PRO BOWL SKILL POSITION SNUBS
* Aaron Rodgers deserved the nod over Matt Ryan despite missing a game due to that concussion. A-Rodg had absolutely no running game all year but still ran a vertical offense to perfection. He trailed only Philip Rivers in yards per attempt and his passer rating was 12.1 points higher than Ryan's.
* I would have sent Mike Wallace to Hawaii over Reggie Wayne. Week 15 spoke volumes, as Peyton Manning barely even looked Wayne's way against Nnamdi Asomugha. Yes, Wayne caught almost twice as many balls as Wallace. But Wallace's catches were game-changing plays, while Wayne's were just chain-movers. When healthy, Austin Collie was the best Colts receiver this season.
* Vernon Davis should be going ahead of Tony Gonzalez. T-Gonz simply got the nod based on name value and the Falcons' record. The future Hall of Famer was not a difference maker on the field.
INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Andre Johnson (ankle) remains very questionable. ... Arrelious Benn has a torn ACL, putting his early 2011 status in doubt. ... Reggie Bush (collarbone) will not miss any time. ... Matt Hasselbeck (hip) says he will play Sunday.
DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
The Saints will not rest their starters Sunday. ... Jon Kitna (oblique) will start in Week 17 if healthy, but that looks unlikely. ... Mark Sanchez is now expected to start Sunday. How long he plays is another story. ... Danario Alexander played 43 of 66 snaps Sunday. ... The Chiefs do not plan on resting their starters.
Grading 15 rookie keepers You don't need Rotoworld to tell you that Sam Bradford has a bright future as a fantasy quarterback.
Ditto Mike Williams and LaGarrette Blount: for the two rookie stars of the Buccaneers offense, the future is now. Heck, forget about next year: Bradford, Blount and Williams make great starters if your league extends into Week 17!
Your fantasy season is probably over, and postseason fantasy leagues are still a week away, so it's time to talk about rookie keepers. Some of this year's rookies are worth stashing away for 2011. Some should just be tossed back in the draft pool. If your league only allows one or two keepers, you cannot afford to keep the wrong guy. The following list grades the 2011 potential for 15 rookies, with a deeper look at why some should be nurtured while others should be abandoned.
Arrelious Benn, C-minus
If you drafted the wrong Buccaneers rookie receiver, take heart. Benn has just eight catches in the last three games, but seven of them netted first downs, including 64 and 43 yarders. With his size, he could still emerge as Josh Freeman's favorite red zone weapon, or as a 60-catch possession complement to Williams.
Jahvid Best: B-minus
Best's future may be as a complementary back and receiver out of the backfield. Best gained two yards or less on 99 of his 161 carries, resulting in a lot of 17-35-0 stat lines. His big play potential is undeniable, and he is worth more in PPR leagues, but the Lions haven't produced a fantasy workhouse back in years, and Best has "committee" written all over him. Still, it's better to keep a potential RB3 than a TE1.
Dez Bryant: A-minus
Before getting hurt, Bryant displayed dazzling big-play ability, had a well-defined role in the Cowboys offense, and most importantly, was a personal favorite of Jerry Jones. The Cowboys loved to use Bryant on receiver screens and other super-short passes, throwing 29 passes to him that traveled less than five yards in the air. Three screens per game can do wonders for a receiver's fantasy potential, and Bryant scored four touchdowns and had a 46-yard run on these short passes. Will the next coach be as enamored of Bryant as Jason Garrett was? As long as Emperor Jones makes the final decisions, it doesn't matter. The only person keeping Bryant from earning a solid A rating is Miles Austin.
Jimmy Clausen: D
The Panthers may want to wait on Clausen, but that doesn't mean you should. The Panthers let Clausen throw tons of short passes to get comfortable in the offense: on passes that traveled five yards or less in the air, he was 74-of-125 for 505 yards. Take those micro-passes out of his statistics, and Clausen completed only 45.3 percent of his throws downfield. Don't blame the offense: Steve Smith only missed one game, David Gettis and Brandon LaFell are solid "C" prospects, and the offensive line was pretty good. The upside for Clausen next year is one of those 2500-yard, 12-touchdown seasons developing quarterbacks often have for rebuilding teams. You don't need that.
Jacoby Ford: D
Ford is fun to watch, and he is worth more in a league with big bonuses for long touchdowns. But he has only been targeted 17 times in the last four games, and waiting around for rushing touchdowns by a receiver will kill you.
Toby Gerhart: C-plus
If you drafted Gerhart as either an Adrian Peterson handcuff or an insurance policy, you have to be happy with the results: he was productive when called upon last week, and he filled his niche as Peterson's change-up back fairly well. Gerhart should fill the same role for next season; keep him, and the guy who drafts Peterson will want to talk trade with you right after next year's draft.
Jermaine Gresham: B-minus
Gresham caught an amazing number of unproductive passes early in the season: he had 33 catches of eight yards or less, only eight of which netted a first down or touchdown. In recent weeks, he has cut loose, with four catches of 20 or more yards in the last three games. It's almost as if Gresham needed two loudmouth nitwits to disappear before he could assume a sensible role in the offense.
Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez: B
The problem with these guys is that there are two of them: eventually, one is going to leech catches and red zone opportunities away from the other. Right now, Gronkowski appears to have the edge, but it is nothing worth betting your season on. If you are only allowed to keep one player, think twice before keeping a tight end: remember how replaceable they are. Gresham could easily out-produce both Patriots next year, just because he won't have to split his opportunities.
Chris Ivory: A-minus
According to Football Outsiders, Ivory led the NFL in Success Rate, which is like a batting average for running backs: he had the league's best percentage of move-the-chains type runs. As a power back in an offense that will be great again next year, Ivory will get a lot of red zone opportunities. The Saints will still throw 400 passes per game and use fifty different personnel packages, so be ready for a lot of 12-50-1 stat lines if you keep Ivory.
Ryan Mathews: C
Here's a stat that will strike fear into any fantasy owner: seven red zone carries, zero touchdowns. Mathews looks good on the game tape and is more versatile than the other Chargers running backs, but he is the kind of runner whose touches get whittled away from all sides: Darren Sproles gets the catches, Mike Tolbert gets the goal line carries, and Mathews gets stuck in 15-60-0 purgatory.
Colt McCoy: C-minus
McCoy should develop into a fine NFL quarterback, and his running ability adds some fantasy value, but it's a stretch to project him as anything but a QB3 for 2011. His receiving corps is weak, and once the "plucky underdog" charm wore off, we saw that he was just another rookie with a lot to learn.
C.J. Spiller: D
Spiller hasn't had more than nine carries in a game, and he hasn't distinguished himself as a receiver (30 targets). Fred Jackson is a better all-around back, so Spiller appears stuck in a role as a complementary back and return man for the foreseeable future.
Tim Tebow: A-plus
To be clear, we are talking about fantasy football here. As an NFL starter, Tebow still needs a lot of refinement. As a fantasy prospect, he is all you could ask for. With 18 carries and two touchdowns in his two starts, he's a lock to rack up rushing yards. With Brandon Lloyd leading a receiving corps full of young talent, he has great weapons. And with incredible fan support and a new coach coming to town, he has enviable job security for a young quarterback. Tebow could go 6-10 as a starter next year, but if he's throwing for 200 yards and a touchdown while running for 50 yards and a touchdown every week, you won't care.
Demaryius Thomas: D
Thomas suffered multiple injuries and got lost in the shuffle as Brandon Lloyd emerged as a go-to receiver. Thomas is not a lost cause, and his blocking makes him a great fit in a running-and-Tebow based offense, but that won't help your fantasy team.
Ditto Mike Williams and LaGarrette Blount: for the two rookie stars of the Buccaneers offense, the future is now. Heck, forget about next year: Bradford, Blount and Williams make great starters if your league extends into Week 17!
Your fantasy season is probably over, and postseason fantasy leagues are still a week away, so it's time to talk about rookie keepers. Some of this year's rookies are worth stashing away for 2011. Some should just be tossed back in the draft pool. If your league only allows one or two keepers, you cannot afford to keep the wrong guy. The following list grades the 2011 potential for 15 rookies, with a deeper look at why some should be nurtured while others should be abandoned.
Arrelious Benn, C-minus
If you drafted the wrong Buccaneers rookie receiver, take heart. Benn has just eight catches in the last three games, but seven of them netted first downs, including 64 and 43 yarders. With his size, he could still emerge as Josh Freeman's favorite red zone weapon, or as a 60-catch possession complement to Williams.
Jahvid Best: B-minus
Best's future may be as a complementary back and receiver out of the backfield. Best gained two yards or less on 99 of his 161 carries, resulting in a lot of 17-35-0 stat lines. His big play potential is undeniable, and he is worth more in PPR leagues, but the Lions haven't produced a fantasy workhouse back in years, and Best has "committee" written all over him. Still, it's better to keep a potential RB3 than a TE1.
Dez Bryant: A-minus
Before getting hurt, Bryant displayed dazzling big-play ability, had a well-defined role in the Cowboys offense, and most importantly, was a personal favorite of Jerry Jones. The Cowboys loved to use Bryant on receiver screens and other super-short passes, throwing 29 passes to him that traveled less than five yards in the air. Three screens per game can do wonders for a receiver's fantasy potential, and Bryant scored four touchdowns and had a 46-yard run on these short passes. Will the next coach be as enamored of Bryant as Jason Garrett was? As long as Emperor Jones makes the final decisions, it doesn't matter. The only person keeping Bryant from earning a solid A rating is Miles Austin.
Jimmy Clausen: D
The Panthers may want to wait on Clausen, but that doesn't mean you should. The Panthers let Clausen throw tons of short passes to get comfortable in the offense: on passes that traveled five yards or less in the air, he was 74-of-125 for 505 yards. Take those micro-passes out of his statistics, and Clausen completed only 45.3 percent of his throws downfield. Don't blame the offense: Steve Smith only missed one game, David Gettis and Brandon LaFell are solid "C" prospects, and the offensive line was pretty good. The upside for Clausen next year is one of those 2500-yard, 12-touchdown seasons developing quarterbacks often have for rebuilding teams. You don't need that.
Jacoby Ford: D
Ford is fun to watch, and he is worth more in a league with big bonuses for long touchdowns. But he has only been targeted 17 times in the last four games, and waiting around for rushing touchdowns by a receiver will kill you.
Toby Gerhart: C-plus
If you drafted Gerhart as either an Adrian Peterson handcuff or an insurance policy, you have to be happy with the results: he was productive when called upon last week, and he filled his niche as Peterson's change-up back fairly well. Gerhart should fill the same role for next season; keep him, and the guy who drafts Peterson will want to talk trade with you right after next year's draft.
Jermaine Gresham: B-minus
Gresham caught an amazing number of unproductive passes early in the season: he had 33 catches of eight yards or less, only eight of which netted a first down or touchdown. In recent weeks, he has cut loose, with four catches of 20 or more yards in the last three games. It's almost as if Gresham needed two loudmouth nitwits to disappear before he could assume a sensible role in the offense.
Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez: B
The problem with these guys is that there are two of them: eventually, one is going to leech catches and red zone opportunities away from the other. Right now, Gronkowski appears to have the edge, but it is nothing worth betting your season on. If you are only allowed to keep one player, think twice before keeping a tight end: remember how replaceable they are. Gresham could easily out-produce both Patriots next year, just because he won't have to split his opportunities.
Chris Ivory: A-minus
According to Football Outsiders, Ivory led the NFL in Success Rate, which is like a batting average for running backs: he had the league's best percentage of move-the-chains type runs. As a power back in an offense that will be great again next year, Ivory will get a lot of red zone opportunities. The Saints will still throw 400 passes per game and use fifty different personnel packages, so be ready for a lot of 12-50-1 stat lines if you keep Ivory.
Ryan Mathews: C
Here's a stat that will strike fear into any fantasy owner: seven red zone carries, zero touchdowns. Mathews looks good on the game tape and is more versatile than the other Chargers running backs, but he is the kind of runner whose touches get whittled away from all sides: Darren Sproles gets the catches, Mike Tolbert gets the goal line carries, and Mathews gets stuck in 15-60-0 purgatory.
Colt McCoy: C-minus
McCoy should develop into a fine NFL quarterback, and his running ability adds some fantasy value, but it's a stretch to project him as anything but a QB3 for 2011. His receiving corps is weak, and once the "plucky underdog" charm wore off, we saw that he was just another rookie with a lot to learn.
C.J. Spiller: D
Spiller hasn't had more than nine carries in a game, and he hasn't distinguished himself as a receiver (30 targets). Fred Jackson is a better all-around back, so Spiller appears stuck in a role as a complementary back and return man for the foreseeable future.
Tim Tebow: A-plus
To be clear, we are talking about fantasy football here. As an NFL starter, Tebow still needs a lot of refinement. As a fantasy prospect, he is all you could ask for. With 18 carries and two touchdowns in his two starts, he's a lock to rack up rushing yards. With Brandon Lloyd leading a receiving corps full of young talent, he has great weapons. And with incredible fan support and a new coach coming to town, he has enviable job security for a young quarterback. Tebow could go 6-10 as a starter next year, but if he's throwing for 200 yards and a touchdown while running for 50 yards and a touchdown every week, you won't care.
Demaryius Thomas: D
Thomas suffered multiple injuries and got lost in the shuffle as Brandon Lloyd emerged as a go-to receiver. Thomas is not a lost cause, and his blocking makes him a great fit in a running-and-Tebow based offense, but that won't help your fantasy team.
Looking Forward to 2011
A year ago, we took a look ahead at the first round of the next year's fantasy draft with Rotoworld's final Daily Dose of the season. With 2010 coming to a close, it's a good time to revisit that same idea that listed Jamaal Charles as a first-round pick early last January.
1. Michael Vick, Eagles - At some point this offseason, the industry "experts" will collectively decide that a quarterback can't go No. 1 overall because elite options are too easy to find in later rounds. Bollocks. Vick and Kevin Kolb have combined for 437.9 fantasy points in 2010, 55 more than second-place Aaron Rodgers (and Matt Flynn) and nearly 90 points ahead of the trio of Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Philip Rivers.
Despite a pair of half-games, Vick averaged 30 points per week with the rest of the "elite" field sitting at 22-25. Tight end is the only other position that saw such a disparity, with Antonio Gates lapping the field. The Eagles' dynamic young offensive playmakers aren't going anywhere this offseason. I'm taking Vick first overall and coming back with Kolb as his handcuff in the 13th round.
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings - He's a rock. For the fourth time in four years since entering the NFL, Peterson finished in the top-three in fantasy points.
3. Arian Foster, Texans - While he's proven to be an elite talent this season, it certainly doesn't hurt that coach Gary Kubiak is expected to keep his job -- and the zone-blocking scheme intact -- for 2011.
4. Chris Johnson, Titans - The consensus 2010 No. 1 pick still managed a top-seven finish with the passing game and play-calling crumbling around him. CJ2K's ceiling and floor both remain sky high.
5. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs - Considering his production over the past five weeks, it can be argued that Charles was the most valuable back in fantasy land this year. He maintains as much upside as any running back in the NFL, and Thomas Jones is another year older in 2011.
6. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars - It looks like MJD may need meniscus surgery after the season, so that's a story to track through OTAs and minicamp. As long as he's back to 100 percent by August, Jones-Drew remains a good bet for 1,500 total yards, 50 receptions, and double-digit scores.
7. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers - Since returning from a concussion in Week 12, Stewart's 531 rushing yards are exceeded only by Jamaal Charles' 532. With DeAngelo Williams likely out of the picture, one of the league's most talented backs is set to take over as the bell cow in the Carolina backfield. In eight starts to close out the last two seasons with Williams sidelined, Stewart has averaged 121 rushing yards per game.
8. Ray Rice, Ravens - Due to a lack of touchdowns and big plays, Rice was a very mild fantasy disappointment in 2010. Both problems should be fixed in the offseason with the offensive line shored up and goal-line back Willis McGahee likely to be shown the door.
9. Frank Gore, 49ers - Gore will be seen as a risky selection entering his contract year in 2011 while coming off a fractured hip. He avoided the worst-case scenario, however, and should be back to 100 percent through rest and rehab by late spring.
10. Andre Johnson, Texans - Only a lingering high-ankle sprain kept him from reaching 1,500 yards for an NFL-record three straight seasons. A.J. is money in the bag at wide receiver.
11. Darren McFadden, Raiders - After finishing fourth in fantasy points and second in points per game, McFadden has earned a first-round grade. He would be higher on the list if not for his checkered injury history.
12a. LeSean McCoy, Eagles - Shady finished sixth in running back fantasy points while leading all backs in receptions and placing second only to Arian Foster in receiving yards. His role in the Eagles' passing attack leaves him virtually slump-proof.
12b. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - You couldn't be blamed for going with Peyton Hillis in the first round, but there could be a new sheriff in Cleveland. Hillis' late-season fade is enough of a concern that a committee attack looms as a threat in 2011. Even with his best weapon, Jermichael Finley, sidelined for the majority of the season, Rodgers enjoyed a third straight top-three finish at quarterback. He's yet to hit his fantasy ceiling.
On the cusp: Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte, Peyton Hillis, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson
Editor's Note: Pick a new fantasy team just for today and win real cash with Snapdraft!
Coaching News
The 49ers reportedly have their sights on Stanford's Jim Harbaugh as the next head coach due to his history of developing quarterbacks Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck at his most recent college stops. As of Wednesday night, the Niners were expected to promote Trent Baalke from V.P. of Player Personnel to G.M. "within 48 hours." It remains to be seen if Baalke has enough pull to hire the "big-name" coach CEO Jed York is believed to be targeting.
John McClain of the Houston Chronicle predicts the Texans will keep head coach Gary Kubiak in 2011, but only if he fires embattled defensive coordinator Frank Bush and secondary coach David Gibbs. McClain notes that owner Bob McNair "loves Kubiak," and "believes he will win." If Kubiak does return, it would take perhaps the Broncos' top coaching candidate off the table. With Kubiak likely to overhaul his entire defensive staff, there are "rumblings" that ex-Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips could take over as coordinator.
The Vikings have yet to begin contract talks with interim coach Leslie Frazier about getting the job full time in 2011. Frazier is 3-2 since replacing Brad Childress, and one more win could go a long way toward solidifying him as the favorite. "I'm sure we'll talk here pretty soon," said Frazier. "We're wrapping the season up now. Hopefully real soon."
Marvin Lewis expects to learn his fate as Bengals head coach by next "Monday or Tuesday." Lewis is seen as dead man walking around the league, but Mike Brown doesn't operate like any other owner in the NFL. His moves rarely coincide with conventional wisdom and, let's face it, the Bengals need Lewis far more than he needs them.
Head coach John Fox confirmed Wednesday that he almost certainly won't return to Carolina in 2011. The Panthers are expected to go the cheap route by seeking a young, upstart head coach as Fox's replacement.
Around the League: Michael Vick (quad) and DeSean Jackson (foot) are expected to sit out Week 17 altogether. LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin may also sit out with the Eagles locked into the No. 3 seed. … Jamaal Charles anticipates playing extensively in Week 17 in hopes of winning the NFL's rushing title. … Bears coach Lovie Smith reiterated strongly that he is planning to play all of his starters in Week 17. … Coach Rex Ryan confirmed that Mark Sanchez (shoulder) "definitely" won't play all four quarters Sunday. … Interim coach Jim Tomsula announced that Alex Smith will be the 49ers' starting quarterback in Week 17 against Arizona. … Coach Jim Schwartz confirmed that Shaun Hill will start a second straight game. … Broncos interim coach Eric Studesville will go with the "hot hand" at running back against the Chargers. … 49ers ILB Patrick Willis has been ruled out for Week 17 after undergoing a second surgery on his broken right hand. … Clinton Portis is not willing to take a pay cut to return to the Redskins in 2011. … The Cardinals "have shown little interest" in re-signing Steve Breaston. … Maryland WR Torrey Smith announced on Twitter Wednesday night that he will forgo his senior season and enter the 2011 NFL draft.
Quarterback Report: David Garrard will miss this week's game to undergo surgery on his right middle finger. Trent Edwards is expected to fill in at Houston. … Brett Favre failed his concussion test on Wednesday, though he may take it again on Thursday. … Seahawks coach Pete Carroll reiterated that Matt Hasselbeck (hip) is unlikely to play in Week 17. … Jon Kitna (oblique) sat out Wednesday's practice.
Running Back Report: Maurice Jones-Drew is not expected to play this week, and he will likely need to undergo surgery on his troublesome right knee after the season. … Darren McFadden was held out of practice Wednesday with an ankle injury while Jonathan Stewart was held out with a foot injury. … Knowshon Moreno and Peyton Hillis both missed practice with rib injuries. … Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) was held out of practice Wednesday, but he's not expected to miss this week's game.
Wide Receiver Report: Hakeem Nicks is in danger of missing the season finale with a broken big toe on his left foot. … Larry Fitzgerald revealed that he experienced concussion-like symptoms late in last week's game. His status for Week 17 is unknown. … The Texans plan to decide Andre Johnson's (ankle) status for Week 17 on Friday. … Calvin Johnson (ankle) will likely miss some practice time this week but he'll try to play on Sunday. … Malcom Floyd (hamstring) returned to a limited practice Wednesday. … Mike Sims-Walker (ankle) did not participate in Wednesday's practice.
Tight End Report: Though Antonio Gates (foot, toe) won't play in Week 17, he hasn't ruled out returning for the Pro Bowl in late January. … Todd Heap (hamstring) practiced in full Wednesday and plans to play in Week 17. … Anthony Fasano (knee) is sitting out Wednesday's practice.
A year ago, we took a look ahead at the first round of the next year's fantasy draft with Rotoworld's final Daily Dose of the season. With 2010 coming to a close, it's a good time to revisit that same idea that listed Jamaal Charles as a first-round pick early last January.
1. Michael Vick, Eagles - At some point this offseason, the industry "experts" will collectively decide that a quarterback can't go No. 1 overall because elite options are too easy to find in later rounds. Bollocks. Vick and Kevin Kolb have combined for 437.9 fantasy points in 2010, 55 more than second-place Aaron Rodgers (and Matt Flynn) and nearly 90 points ahead of the trio of Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Philip Rivers.
Despite a pair of half-games, Vick averaged 30 points per week with the rest of the "elite" field sitting at 22-25. Tight end is the only other position that saw such a disparity, with Antonio Gates lapping the field. The Eagles' dynamic young offensive playmakers aren't going anywhere this offseason. I'm taking Vick first overall and coming back with Kolb as his handcuff in the 13th round.
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings - He's a rock. For the fourth time in four years since entering the NFL, Peterson finished in the top-three in fantasy points.
3. Arian Foster, Texans - While he's proven to be an elite talent this season, it certainly doesn't hurt that coach Gary Kubiak is expected to keep his job -- and the zone-blocking scheme intact -- for 2011.
4. Chris Johnson, Titans - The consensus 2010 No. 1 pick still managed a top-seven finish with the passing game and play-calling crumbling around him. CJ2K's ceiling and floor both remain sky high.
5. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs - Considering his production over the past five weeks, it can be argued that Charles was the most valuable back in fantasy land this year. He maintains as much upside as any running back in the NFL, and Thomas Jones is another year older in 2011.
6. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars - It looks like MJD may need meniscus surgery after the season, so that's a story to track through OTAs and minicamp. As long as he's back to 100 percent by August, Jones-Drew remains a good bet for 1,500 total yards, 50 receptions, and double-digit scores.
7. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers - Since returning from a concussion in Week 12, Stewart's 531 rushing yards are exceeded only by Jamaal Charles' 532. With DeAngelo Williams likely out of the picture, one of the league's most talented backs is set to take over as the bell cow in the Carolina backfield. In eight starts to close out the last two seasons with Williams sidelined, Stewart has averaged 121 rushing yards per game.
8. Ray Rice, Ravens - Due to a lack of touchdowns and big plays, Rice was a very mild fantasy disappointment in 2010. Both problems should be fixed in the offseason with the offensive line shored up and goal-line back Willis McGahee likely to be shown the door.
9. Frank Gore, 49ers - Gore will be seen as a risky selection entering his contract year in 2011 while coming off a fractured hip. He avoided the worst-case scenario, however, and should be back to 100 percent through rest and rehab by late spring.
10. Andre Johnson, Texans - Only a lingering high-ankle sprain kept him from reaching 1,500 yards for an NFL-record three straight seasons. A.J. is money in the bag at wide receiver.
11. Darren McFadden, Raiders - After finishing fourth in fantasy points and second in points per game, McFadden has earned a first-round grade. He would be higher on the list if not for his checkered injury history.
12a. LeSean McCoy, Eagles - Shady finished sixth in running back fantasy points while leading all backs in receptions and placing second only to Arian Foster in receiving yards. His role in the Eagles' passing attack leaves him virtually slump-proof.
12b. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - You couldn't be blamed for going with Peyton Hillis in the first round, but there could be a new sheriff in Cleveland. Hillis' late-season fade is enough of a concern that a committee attack looms as a threat in 2011. Even with his best weapon, Jermichael Finley, sidelined for the majority of the season, Rodgers enjoyed a third straight top-three finish at quarterback. He's yet to hit his fantasy ceiling.
On the cusp: Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte, Peyton Hillis, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson
Editor's Note: Pick a new fantasy team just for today and win real cash with Snapdraft!
Coaching News
The 49ers reportedly have their sights on Stanford's Jim Harbaugh as the next head coach due to his history of developing quarterbacks Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck at his most recent college stops. As of Wednesday night, the Niners were expected to promote Trent Baalke from V.P. of Player Personnel to G.M. "within 48 hours." It remains to be seen if Baalke has enough pull to hire the "big-name" coach CEO Jed York is believed to be targeting.
John McClain of the Houston Chronicle predicts the Texans will keep head coach Gary Kubiak in 2011, but only if he fires embattled defensive coordinator Frank Bush and secondary coach David Gibbs. McClain notes that owner Bob McNair "loves Kubiak," and "believes he will win." If Kubiak does return, it would take perhaps the Broncos' top coaching candidate off the table. With Kubiak likely to overhaul his entire defensive staff, there are "rumblings" that ex-Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips could take over as coordinator.
The Vikings have yet to begin contract talks with interim coach Leslie Frazier about getting the job full time in 2011. Frazier is 3-2 since replacing Brad Childress, and one more win could go a long way toward solidifying him as the favorite. "I'm sure we'll talk here pretty soon," said Frazier. "We're wrapping the season up now. Hopefully real soon."
Marvin Lewis expects to learn his fate as Bengals head coach by next "Monday or Tuesday." Lewis is seen as dead man walking around the league, but Mike Brown doesn't operate like any other owner in the NFL. His moves rarely coincide with conventional wisdom and, let's face it, the Bengals need Lewis far more than he needs them.
Head coach John Fox confirmed Wednesday that he almost certainly won't return to Carolina in 2011. The Panthers are expected to go the cheap route by seeking a young, upstart head coach as Fox's replacement.
Around the League: Michael Vick (quad) and DeSean Jackson (foot) are expected to sit out Week 17 altogether. LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin may also sit out with the Eagles locked into the No. 3 seed. … Jamaal Charles anticipates playing extensively in Week 17 in hopes of winning the NFL's rushing title. … Bears coach Lovie Smith reiterated strongly that he is planning to play all of his starters in Week 17. … Coach Rex Ryan confirmed that Mark Sanchez (shoulder) "definitely" won't play all four quarters Sunday. … Interim coach Jim Tomsula announced that Alex Smith will be the 49ers' starting quarterback in Week 17 against Arizona. … Coach Jim Schwartz confirmed that Shaun Hill will start a second straight game. … Broncos interim coach Eric Studesville will go with the "hot hand" at running back against the Chargers. … 49ers ILB Patrick Willis has been ruled out for Week 17 after undergoing a second surgery on his broken right hand. … Clinton Portis is not willing to take a pay cut to return to the Redskins in 2011. … The Cardinals "have shown little interest" in re-signing Steve Breaston. … Maryland WR Torrey Smith announced on Twitter Wednesday night that he will forgo his senior season and enter the 2011 NFL draft.
Quarterback Report: David Garrard will miss this week's game to undergo surgery on his right middle finger. Trent Edwards is expected to fill in at Houston. … Brett Favre failed his concussion test on Wednesday, though he may take it again on Thursday. … Seahawks coach Pete Carroll reiterated that Matt Hasselbeck (hip) is unlikely to play in Week 17. … Jon Kitna (oblique) sat out Wednesday's practice.
Running Back Report: Maurice Jones-Drew is not expected to play this week, and he will likely need to undergo surgery on his troublesome right knee after the season. … Darren McFadden was held out of practice Wednesday with an ankle injury while Jonathan Stewart was held out with a foot injury. … Knowshon Moreno and Peyton Hillis both missed practice with rib injuries. … Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) was held out of practice Wednesday, but he's not expected to miss this week's game.
Wide Receiver Report: Hakeem Nicks is in danger of missing the season finale with a broken big toe on his left foot. … Larry Fitzgerald revealed that he experienced concussion-like symptoms late in last week's game. His status for Week 17 is unknown. … The Texans plan to decide Andre Johnson's (ankle) status for Week 17 on Friday. … Calvin Johnson (ankle) will likely miss some practice time this week but he'll try to play on Sunday. … Malcom Floyd (hamstring) returned to a limited practice Wednesday. … Mike Sims-Walker (ankle) did not participate in Wednesday's practice.
Tight End Report: Though Antonio Gates (foot, toe) won't play in Week 17, he hasn't ruled out returning for the Pro Bowl in late January. … Todd Heap (hamstring) practiced in full Wednesday and plans to play in Week 17. … Anthony Fasano (knee) is sitting out Wednesday's practice.
Week 17 Rankings
The NFL did us a favor by back-loading division games this season. There are fewer meaningless Week 17 games than usual, even with all but three playoff spots accounted for. Here's a quick look at what teams are resting players and what playoff teams aren't in the season finale.
AFC
1. Patriots: Bill Belichick has generally played to win in similar situations, especially when he has a bye week coming up. With such a young defense, my feeling is that Tom Brady will stay in the game until the Patriots have a big lead in the second half. Wes Welker is a guy I'd be afraid to use, but only minor downgrades otherwise.
2. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis: They all have plenty to play for. The Steelers are hardly a lock to win in Cleveland, so there's no scenario where the Ravens scoreboard watch and sit guys early.
3. Jets: The one AFC team I'd stay the hell away from. It sounds like Mark Sanchez will barely play, if at all. That makes LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and even Shonn Greene extremely risky to use. Once the quarterback goes, other top shelf guys follow.
NFC
1. Falcons, Saints: The only way the Falcons rest anyone is if they are up 30 points. So you'll want your Falcons in the lineup. The Saints could be scoreboard watching, but don't figure to pull anyone unless the Falcons have a huge lead in the second half. New Orleans still has a chance to win the division. I'd stick with Brees and be a tad more cautious with Pierre Thomas than normal.
2. Bears: Just a gut feeling they will play to win, even if the Falcons clinch the No. 1 seed earlier in the day. (Lovie Smith said they will play starters throughout, although coaches aren't usually reliable sources.) They have no injuries, a week off coming up, and would love to knock their rival Packers out.
3. Eagles: The one NFC team to stay away from. The Eagles have nothing to play for, and figure to be conservative with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin. Vick probably won't play at all.
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[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Quarterbacks[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Peyton Manning</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Philip Rivers</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Aaron Rodgers</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Drew Brees</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Matt Schaub</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Eli Manning</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Tom Brady</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Kevin Kolb</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Joe Flacco</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Josh Freeman</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Jay Cutler</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Tim Tebow</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Matt Ryan</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Matt Cassel</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Sam Bradford</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Shaun Hill</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>Probable(finger)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Carson Palmer</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Joe Webb</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Ryan Fitzpatrick</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Trent Edwards</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Rex Grossman</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Alex Smith</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Jason Campbell</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Chad Henne</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Charlie Whitehurst</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Stephen McGee</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Kerry Collins</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Colt McCoy</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Mark Brunell</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>John Skelton</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Mark Sanchez</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>Probable(arm)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Jimmy Clausen</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Editor's Note: Just wanted to say good luck to everyone still playing and thank you guys so much for reading all year. We got a lot of nice emails and tweets thanking us for helping you win titles. Don't get carried away though – you made the calls that did it. We're glad to have helped along the way.
I also want to spend a special thanks to Chris Wesseling for his help on these rankings all year. We combined on the rankings for the first time this year and it led to more well-rounded, balanced rankings. He's got a great eye for value.
Evan Silva also deserves a major shout out for the best matchup column on the web. (And it's not close.) Silva spearheads all our news coverage, which is still what Rotoworld is all about. He leads the best fantasy football crew anywhere, with Wesseling, Adam Levitan, L.J. Rader, Ryan Boyer, and Sam Kline all making us look good.
On to the notes ...
QB Notes: Peyton Manning put some ridiculous throws on the Raiders last week. Tennessee's pash rush has thinned out and isn't built for turf. Look for a lot of points from Indianapolis. … Philip Rivers' "slump" is concerning, but 15 weeks of evidence says the Broncos defense is among the very worst in the league. Don't sweat the slump. … Aaron Rodgers may have played better against the Bears in Week 3 than he did last week against the Giants. That should ease any concerns about a tough matchup.
This rankings assumes Kevin Kolb will start. Even without DeSean Jackson, I wouldn't hesitate to use him against the Cowboys. It's the system. … Jay Cutler's ranking isn't conservative because of the Bears could rest people. I think he'll play, but the Packers defense creates a lot of problems confusing opposing quarterbacks. … Tim Tebow's running skills makes him a borderline QB1 even in a tough matchup.
You could make the argument Sam Bradford should be ranked higher because he's playing the Seahawks. Seattle is the ultimate slumpbuster for struggling quarterbacks. Ask Josh Freeman or Alex Smith. … Joe Webb is a nice wide receiver play, but there are too many safer options to use in front of him at quarterback. … I don't trust Rex Grossman at all with the Redskins line trying to protect him against the Giants. … Even the Texans defense doesn't make me comfortable enough to use Trent Edwards.
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[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Running Backs[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Arian Foster</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Jamaal Charles</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Adrian Peterson</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Chris Johnson</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Michael Turner</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Steven Jackson</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Ray Rice</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Jonathan Stewart</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>Questionable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Ryan Mathews</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Darren McFadden</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>Questionable (ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>LeGarrette Blount</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Ahmad Bradshaw</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>Probable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Rashad Jennings</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Felix Jones</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Matt Forte</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Fred Jackson</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Ryan Torain</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Knowshon Moreno</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>Questionable (ribs)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Peyton Hillis</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>BenJarvus Green-Ellis</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Cedric Benson</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Brandon Jacobs</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Pierre Thomas</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Brian Westbrook</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Marshawn Lynch</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Ronnie Brown</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>LeSean McCoy</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Joseph Addai</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Danny Woodhead</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Brandon Jackson</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Michael Bush</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Thomas Jones</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Shonn Greene</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Ricky Williams</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Tashard Choice</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Anthony Dixon</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Tim Hightower</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Maurice Morris</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Jahvid Best</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Chris Ivory</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>Questionable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>John Kuhn</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Dominic Rhodes</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Darren Sproles</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Beanie Wells</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Mike Goodson</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Marion Barber</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Jerome Harrison</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Toby Gerhart</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Correll Buckhalter</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Reggie Bush</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>LaDainian Tomlinson</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Cadillac Williams</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Donald Brown</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>C.J. Spiller</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Joe McKnight</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Mike Bell</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>58</TD><TD>Derrick Ward</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>59</TD><TD>Willis McGahee</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>60</TD><TD>Bernard Scott</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>61</TD><TD>Jason Snelling</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>62</TD><TD>Dimitri Nance</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>Sidelined(concussion)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>63</TD><TD>Chester Taylor</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>64</TD><TD>Deji Karim</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>65</TD><TD>Lance Ball</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>66</TD><TD>Keiland Williams</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>67</TD><TD>Justin Forsett</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
RB Notes: Keep an eye on Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden, and Knowshon Moreno's practice availability all week. These rankings are very subject to change. We'll have Season Pass updated by Friday evening and bring you updates for free on Sunday. … Moreno could especially take a big hit because his injury looks painful. … Ahmad Bradshaw will be ready to roll this week and I expect the Giants to play with the lead throughout.
The Chargers want to see what they have with Ryan Mathews. I was very impressed with his running last week, like I have really all season whenever he's healthy enough to play. He won't help in the passing game, but he makes people miss and breaks tackles. Nice power-speed combo. He could have a huge Week 17 and should be in almost all lineups. … Fred Jackson could be playing against some backup Jets defenders by the end of the Sunday's game and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Bills playing with a lead. Buffalo also wants to get Jackson to 1,000 rushing yards. He's 108 yards away.
Hard to really trust any of the Colts running backs. They should all get a taste. … The Eagles will probably be very careful with LeSean McCoy this week; we'd stay away. … Michael Bush could be a sneaky play depending on Darren McFadden's practice availability. Same goes for Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart's chances to play. … Cedric Benson appeared worn down after his 31-carry performance in Week 15. He's a risky play, but one of the rare guys who should safely get 20 carries.
[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Wide Receivers[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Reggie Wayne</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Andre Johnson</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>Questionable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Roddy White</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Greg Jennings</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Calvin Johnson</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>Sidelined(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Vincent Jackson</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Kenny Britt</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Brandon Marshall</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Mario Manningham</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Marques Colston</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Mike Wallace</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Larry Fitzgerald</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Mike Williams</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Miles Austin</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Pierre Garcon</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Santana Moss</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Steve Johnson</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Santonio Holmes</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Johnny Knox</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Jeremy Maclin</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Mike Thomas</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Michael Crabtree</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Mike Williams</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Jacoby Jones</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Sidney Rice</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>Sidelined(concussion)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Percy Harvin</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Davone Bess</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Anquan Boldin</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Hines Ward</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Deion Branch</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>James Jones</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Jason Hill</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Jason Avant</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Wes Welker</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Danario Alexander</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Jerome Simpson</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Braylon Edwards</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Derrick Mason</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Andre Caldwell</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>DeSean Jackson</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>Questionable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Steve Smith</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Blair White</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Kevin Walter</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Anthony Armstrong</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Donald Driver</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Danny Amendola</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Jacoby Ford</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Robert Meachem</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Nate Burleson</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Louis Murphy</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Earl Bennett</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Lance Moore</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Mike Sims-Walker</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Riley Cooper</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Emmanuel Sanders</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>58</TD><TD>Jabar Gaffney</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>59</TD><TD>Jordan Shipley</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>60</TD><TD>Josh Morgan</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>61</TD><TD>Steve Breaston</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>62</TD><TD>Jerricho Cotchery</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>63</TD><TD>Eddie Royal</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>64</TD><TD>Nate Washington</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>65</TD><TD>Kelley Washington</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>66</TD><TD>Jordy Nelson</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>67</TD><TD>Brandon Gibson</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>68</TD><TD>Roy Williams</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>69</TD><TD>Ben Obomanu</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>70</TD><TD>Andre Roberts</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>71</TD><TD>Naaman Roosevelt</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>72</TD><TD>Devery Henderson</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>73</TD><TD>Laurent Robinson</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>74</TD><TD>Mohamed Massaquoi</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>75</TD><TD>Dexter McCluster</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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WR Notes: Brandon Lloyd is surviving Tim Tebow just fine. The strong Chargers secondary showed some cracks of late and can be beaten deep. The Broncos aren't afraid to just throw it up to Lloyd. … Brandon Marshall vs. Devin McCourty will be fun to watch when Marshall is on the same side of the field. Marshall vs. Kyle Arrigton or Darius Butler will be fun for Marshall's fantasy owners to watch when he's on the other side of the field. … With Hakeem Nicks out, Mario Manningham is almost a must start.
Pierre Garcon has gone from drop easy passes to making spectacular catches. … Keep an eye on Larry Fitzgerald's status throughout the week. Same goes for Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson. As always, we rank guys as if they are starting just in case. … If the Johnson's are out, Nate Burleson and Jacoby Jones become a lot more attractive. … Michael Crabtree finally rewarded any owners that had some faith left in the kid last week. With the right matchup, we'd use him again.
Sidney Rice's status may not be known until later in the week. Considering his contractual status, Rice could play it safe and sit out. … I wouldn't fault you at all for sitting Boldin. This stretch has been tough to stomach. … Among my favorite sneaky plays this week: Danario Alexander, Jerome Simpson, Jason Avant, and Jason Hill. … Davone Bess always gives the Patriots problems and New England will do what they can to limit Brandon Marshall's damage.
<!--RW-->
[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Tight Ends[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Jason Witten</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Vernon Davis</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Jacob Tamme</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Owen Daniels</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Zach Miller</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Chris Cooley</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Kellen Winslow</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Tony Gonzalez</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Brandon Pettigrew</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Rob Gronkowski</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Brent Celek</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Jimmy Graham</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Jared Cook</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Dustin Keller</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Ben Watson</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Heath Miller</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Tony Moeaki</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Kevin Boss</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Jermaine Gresham</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Todd Heap</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>Sidelined(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Jeremy Shockey</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Visanthe Shiancoe</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Randy McMichael</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Greg Olsen</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Aaron Hernandez</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>Questionable(hip)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Anthony Fasano</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Andrew Quarless</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Team Defense[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Giants Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Steelers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Falcons Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Eagles Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Ravens Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Rams Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Patriots Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Chargers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Fortyniners Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Packers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Jets Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Colts Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Bears Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Chiefs Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Cardinals Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Lions Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Saints Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Vikings Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Bills Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Cowboys Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Texans Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Browns Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Seahawks Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Raiders Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Dolphins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Bengals Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Redskins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Titans Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Buccaneers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Jaguars Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Broncos Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Panthers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Kickers[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Garrett Hartley</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Adam Vinatieri</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Matt Bryant</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Nate Kaeding</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>David Akers</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Neil Rackers</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Josh Scobee</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Sebastian Janikowski</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Rob Bironas</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Shayne Graham</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>David Buehler</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Jay Feely</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Robbie Gould</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Mason Crosby</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Jeff Reed</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Lawrence Tynes</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Ryan Succop</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Shaun Suisham</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Josh Brown</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Billy Cundiff</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Connor Barth</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Nick Folk</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Olindo Mare</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Dan Carpenter</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Ryan Longwell</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Rian Lindell</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Phil Dawson</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Graham Gano</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Dave Rayner</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Steven Hauschka</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Clint S
er</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>John Kasay</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
</TBODY></TABLE>
The NFL did us a favor by back-loading division games this season. There are fewer meaningless Week 17 games than usual, even with all but three playoff spots accounted for. Here's a quick look at what teams are resting players and what playoff teams aren't in the season finale.
AFC
1. Patriots: Bill Belichick has generally played to win in similar situations, especially when he has a bye week coming up. With such a young defense, my feeling is that Tom Brady will stay in the game until the Patriots have a big lead in the second half. Wes Welker is a guy I'd be afraid to use, but only minor downgrades otherwise.
2. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis: They all have plenty to play for. The Steelers are hardly a lock to win in Cleveland, so there's no scenario where the Ravens scoreboard watch and sit guys early.
3. Jets: The one AFC team I'd stay the hell away from. It sounds like Mark Sanchez will barely play, if at all. That makes LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and even Shonn Greene extremely risky to use. Once the quarterback goes, other top shelf guys follow.
NFC
1. Falcons, Saints: The only way the Falcons rest anyone is if they are up 30 points. So you'll want your Falcons in the lineup. The Saints could be scoreboard watching, but don't figure to pull anyone unless the Falcons have a huge lead in the second half. New Orleans still has a chance to win the division. I'd stick with Brees and be a tad more cautious with Pierre Thomas than normal.
2. Bears: Just a gut feeling they will play to win, even if the Falcons clinch the No. 1 seed earlier in the day. (Lovie Smith said they will play starters throughout, although coaches aren't usually reliable sources.) They have no injuries, a week off coming up, and would love to knock their rival Packers out.
3. Eagles: The one NFC team to stay away from. The Eagles have nothing to play for, and figure to be conservative with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin. Vick probably won't play at all.
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[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Quarterbacks[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Peyton Manning</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Philip Rivers</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Aaron Rodgers</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Drew Brees</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Matt Schaub</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Eli Manning</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Tom Brady</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Kevin Kolb</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Joe Flacco</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Josh Freeman</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Jay Cutler</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Tim Tebow</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Matt Ryan</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Matt Cassel</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Sam Bradford</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Shaun Hill</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>Probable(finger)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Carson Palmer</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Joe Webb</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Ryan Fitzpatrick</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Trent Edwards</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Rex Grossman</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Alex Smith</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Jason Campbell</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Chad Henne</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Charlie Whitehurst</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Stephen McGee</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Kerry Collins</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Colt McCoy</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Mark Brunell</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>John Skelton</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Mark Sanchez</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>Probable(arm)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Jimmy Clausen</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Editor's Note: Just wanted to say good luck to everyone still playing and thank you guys so much for reading all year. We got a lot of nice emails and tweets thanking us for helping you win titles. Don't get carried away though – you made the calls that did it. We're glad to have helped along the way.
I also want to spend a special thanks to Chris Wesseling for his help on these rankings all year. We combined on the rankings for the first time this year and it led to more well-rounded, balanced rankings. He's got a great eye for value.
Evan Silva also deserves a major shout out for the best matchup column on the web. (And it's not close.) Silva spearheads all our news coverage, which is still what Rotoworld is all about. He leads the best fantasy football crew anywhere, with Wesseling, Adam Levitan, L.J. Rader, Ryan Boyer, and Sam Kline all making us look good.
On to the notes ...
QB Notes: Peyton Manning put some ridiculous throws on the Raiders last week. Tennessee's pash rush has thinned out and isn't built for turf. Look for a lot of points from Indianapolis. … Philip Rivers' "slump" is concerning, but 15 weeks of evidence says the Broncos defense is among the very worst in the league. Don't sweat the slump. … Aaron Rodgers may have played better against the Bears in Week 3 than he did last week against the Giants. That should ease any concerns about a tough matchup.
This rankings assumes Kevin Kolb will start. Even without DeSean Jackson, I wouldn't hesitate to use him against the Cowboys. It's the system. … Jay Cutler's ranking isn't conservative because of the Bears could rest people. I think he'll play, but the Packers defense creates a lot of problems confusing opposing quarterbacks. … Tim Tebow's running skills makes him a borderline QB1 even in a tough matchup.
You could make the argument Sam Bradford should be ranked higher because he's playing the Seahawks. Seattle is the ultimate slumpbuster for struggling quarterbacks. Ask Josh Freeman or Alex Smith. … Joe Webb is a nice wide receiver play, but there are too many safer options to use in front of him at quarterback. … I don't trust Rex Grossman at all with the Redskins line trying to protect him against the Giants. … Even the Texans defense doesn't make me comfortable enough to use Trent Edwards.
<!--RW-->
[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Running Backs[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Arian Foster</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Jamaal Charles</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Adrian Peterson</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Chris Johnson</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Michael Turner</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Steven Jackson</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Ray Rice</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Jonathan Stewart</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>Questionable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Ryan Mathews</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Darren McFadden</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>Questionable (ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>LeGarrette Blount</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Ahmad Bradshaw</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>Probable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Rashad Jennings</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Felix Jones</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Matt Forte</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Fred Jackson</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Ryan Torain</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Knowshon Moreno</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>Questionable (ribs)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Peyton Hillis</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>BenJarvus Green-Ellis</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Cedric Benson</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Brandon Jacobs</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Pierre Thomas</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Brian Westbrook</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Marshawn Lynch</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Ronnie Brown</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>LeSean McCoy</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Joseph Addai</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Danny Woodhead</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Brandon Jackson</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Michael Bush</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Thomas Jones</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Shonn Greene</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Ricky Williams</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Tashard Choice</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Anthony Dixon</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Tim Hightower</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Maurice Morris</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Jahvid Best</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Chris Ivory</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>Questionable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>John Kuhn</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Dominic Rhodes</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Darren Sproles</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Beanie Wells</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Mike Goodson</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Marion Barber</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Jerome Harrison</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Toby Gerhart</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Correll Buckhalter</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Reggie Bush</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>LaDainian Tomlinson</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Cadillac Williams</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Donald Brown</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>C.J. Spiller</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Joe McKnight</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Mike Bell</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>58</TD><TD>Derrick Ward</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>59</TD><TD>Willis McGahee</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>60</TD><TD>Bernard Scott</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>61</TD><TD>Jason Snelling</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>62</TD><TD>Dimitri Nance</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>Sidelined(concussion)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>63</TD><TD>Chester Taylor</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>64</TD><TD>Deji Karim</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>65</TD><TD>Lance Ball</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>66</TD><TD>Keiland Williams</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>67</TD><TD>Justin Forsett</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
RB Notes: Keep an eye on Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden, and Knowshon Moreno's practice availability all week. These rankings are very subject to change. We'll have Season Pass updated by Friday evening and bring you updates for free on Sunday. … Moreno could especially take a big hit because his injury looks painful. … Ahmad Bradshaw will be ready to roll this week and I expect the Giants to play with the lead throughout.
The Chargers want to see what they have with Ryan Mathews. I was very impressed with his running last week, like I have really all season whenever he's healthy enough to play. He won't help in the passing game, but he makes people miss and breaks tackles. Nice power-speed combo. He could have a huge Week 17 and should be in almost all lineups. … Fred Jackson could be playing against some backup Jets defenders by the end of the Sunday's game and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Bills playing with a lead. Buffalo also wants to get Jackson to 1,000 rushing yards. He's 108 yards away.
Hard to really trust any of the Colts running backs. They should all get a taste. … The Eagles will probably be very careful with LeSean McCoy this week; we'd stay away. … Michael Bush could be a sneaky play depending on Darren McFadden's practice availability. Same goes for Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart's chances to play. … Cedric Benson appeared worn down after his 31-carry performance in Week 15. He's a risky play, but one of the rare guys who should safely get 20 carries.
[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Wide Receivers[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Reggie Wayne</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Andre Johnson</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>Questionable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Roddy White</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Greg Jennings</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Calvin Johnson</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>Sidelined(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Vincent Jackson</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Kenny Britt</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Brandon Marshall</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Mario Manningham</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Marques Colston</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Mike Wallace</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Larry Fitzgerald</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Mike Williams</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Miles Austin</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Pierre Garcon</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Santana Moss</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Steve Johnson</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Santonio Holmes</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Johnny Knox</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Jeremy Maclin</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Mike Thomas</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Michael Crabtree</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Mike Williams</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Jacoby Jones</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Sidney Rice</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>Sidelined(concussion)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Percy Harvin</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Davone Bess</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Anquan Boldin</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Hines Ward</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Deion Branch</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>James Jones</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Jason Hill</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Jason Avant</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Wes Welker</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Danario Alexander</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Jerome Simpson</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Braylon Edwards</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Derrick Mason</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Andre Caldwell</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>DeSean Jackson</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>Questionable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Steve Smith</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Blair White</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Kevin Walter</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Anthony Armstrong</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Donald Driver</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Danny Amendola</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Jacoby Ford</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Robert Meachem</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Nate Burleson</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Louis Murphy</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Earl Bennett</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Lance Moore</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Mike Sims-Walker</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Riley Cooper</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Emmanuel Sanders</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>58</TD><TD>Jabar Gaffney</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>59</TD><TD>Jordan Shipley</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>60</TD><TD>Josh Morgan</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>61</TD><TD>Steve Breaston</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>62</TD><TD>Jerricho Cotchery</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>63</TD><TD>Eddie Royal</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>64</TD><TD>Nate Washington</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>65</TD><TD>Kelley Washington</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>66</TD><TD>Jordy Nelson</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>67</TD><TD>Brandon Gibson</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>68</TD><TD>Roy Williams</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>69</TD><TD>Ben Obomanu</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>70</TD><TD>Andre Roberts</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>71</TD><TD>Naaman Roosevelt</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>72</TD><TD>Devery Henderson</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>73</TD><TD>Laurent Robinson</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>74</TD><TD>Mohamed Massaquoi</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>75</TD><TD>Dexter McCluster</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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WR Notes: Brandon Lloyd is surviving Tim Tebow just fine. The strong Chargers secondary showed some cracks of late and can be beaten deep. The Broncos aren't afraid to just throw it up to Lloyd. … Brandon Marshall vs. Devin McCourty will be fun to watch when Marshall is on the same side of the field. Marshall vs. Kyle Arrigton or Darius Butler will be fun for Marshall's fantasy owners to watch when he's on the other side of the field. … With Hakeem Nicks out, Mario Manningham is almost a must start.
Pierre Garcon has gone from drop easy passes to making spectacular catches. … Keep an eye on Larry Fitzgerald's status throughout the week. Same goes for Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson. As always, we rank guys as if they are starting just in case. … If the Johnson's are out, Nate Burleson and Jacoby Jones become a lot more attractive. … Michael Crabtree finally rewarded any owners that had some faith left in the kid last week. With the right matchup, we'd use him again.
Sidney Rice's status may not be known until later in the week. Considering his contractual status, Rice could play it safe and sit out. … I wouldn't fault you at all for sitting Boldin. This stretch has been tough to stomach. … Among my favorite sneaky plays this week: Danario Alexander, Jerome Simpson, Jason Avant, and Jason Hill. … Davone Bess always gives the Patriots problems and New England will do what they can to limit Brandon Marshall's damage.
<!--RW-->
[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Tight Ends[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Jason Witten</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Vernon Davis</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Jacob Tamme</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Owen Daniels</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Zach Miller</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Chris Cooley</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Kellen Winslow</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Tony Gonzalez</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Brandon Pettigrew</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Rob Gronkowski</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Brent Celek</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Jimmy Graham</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Jared Cook</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Dustin Keller</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Ben Watson</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Heath Miller</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Tony Moeaki</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Kevin Boss</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Jermaine Gresham</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Todd Heap</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>Sidelined(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Jeremy Shockey</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Visanthe Shiancoe</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Randy McMichael</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Greg Olsen</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Aaron Hernandez</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>Questionable(hip)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Anthony Fasano</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Andrew Quarless</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Team Defense[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Giants Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Steelers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Falcons Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Eagles Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Ravens Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Rams Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Patriots Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Chargers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Fortyniners Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Packers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Jets Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Colts Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Bears Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Chiefs Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Cardinals Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Lions Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Saints Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Vikings Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Bills Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Cowboys Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Texans Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Browns Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Seahawks Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Raiders Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Dolphins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Bengals Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Redskins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Titans Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Buccaneers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Jaguars Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Broncos Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Panthers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
[SIZE=+1]Week 17 Kickers[/SIZE]
<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Garrett Hartley</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Adam Vinatieri</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Matt Bryant</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Nate Kaeding</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>David Akers</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Neil Rackers</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Josh Scobee</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Sebastian Janikowski</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Rob Bironas</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Shayne Graham</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>David Buehler</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Jay Feely</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Robbie Gould</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Mason Crosby</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Jeff Reed</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Lawrence Tynes</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Ryan Succop</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Shaun Suisham</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Josh Brown</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Billy Cundiff</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Connor Barth</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Nick Folk</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Olindo Mare</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Dan Carpenter</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Ryan Longwell</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Rian Lindell</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Phil Dawson</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Graham Gano</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Dave Rayner</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Steven Hauschka</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>- </TD></TR>
<TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Clint S
er</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>John Kasay</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>- </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Weeks 17's Injury Questions
There are a lot of reasons you should be up to date on the latest injuries and playoff scenarios as we get set for Week 17. Some fantasy leagues are still running. Maybe you fired in some SnapDraft action, like me. Or perhaps you have a score to settle with Vegas (entertainment purposes only, of course).
Regardless, Gregg Rosenthal laid out the "who is trying and who isn't" situations in Goal Line Stand. The only update there is that the Bears are now hinting they may rest some starters.
As for the teams already eliminated from the playoffs, we are always on the lookout for talent. I'll have my eye in Denver, where a healthy Ryan Mathews will get a chance to prove he can be a feature back. Has his pass protection improved at all? Is he willing to put his nose in there? His matchup when running the ball couldn't be much better, but you can't play for the Chargers if you can't protect Philip Rivers.
How about some talented receiver prospects like Jerome Simpson in Cincinnati, Danario Alexander in St. Louis, Houston's Jacoby Jones or Philadelphia's Riley Cooper. They are all headed for tons of snaps, let's see what they can do.
Have your radar up for Week 17. Check out the Rotoworld News Page all morning for the latest information on all the game-time decisions. Also, be sure to use the rankings from Gregg Rosenthal/Chris Wesseling and you'll be good to go.
I've got you covered with the latest injury news right here.
<BIG>1 P.M. GAMES</BIG>
MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND
* Aaron Hernandez (hip) was downgraded on Friday and is not expected to play. Upgrade Rob Gronkowski.
* Deion Branch (knee) is likely going to sit out this meaningless game.
* Anthony Fasano (knee) is out. Mickey Shuler is expected to get the start.
BILLS at JETS
* Ryan Fitzpatrick (knee) is headed for a true game-time decision. Brian Brohm is the next man up.
* Mark Sanchez (shoulder) is going to start, but is expected to be pulled extremely early.
* Santonio Holmes (quad) also can't be trusted as a guy that may be sat down after a series or two.
* David Nelson (ribs) and Donald Jones (head) are both out. Naaman Rooselvelt will get another look.
BENGALS at RAVENS
* Chad Ochocinco (ankle) is out. Jerome Simpson is a sleeper WR3 play.
* Jermaine Gresham (knee) is almost certainly out.
* Todd Heap (thigh) is expected to play, but is a risk as he eases his way back into action.
STEELERS at BROWNS
* Peyton Hillis (ribs) looks like a true game-time decision. Even if active, he is a weak fantasy option in this brutal matchup.
* Ben Watson (ankle) is a go.
RAIDERS at CHIEFS
* Darren McFadden (toe) is a game-time decision and will likely split carries with Michael Bush even if active.
PANTHERS at FALCONS
* Steve Smith (calf) may end up playing, but no one should be using him.
BUCS at SAINTS
* Marques Colston had a scope on his knee earlier this week. It is hard to see him playing. Robert Meachem gets a bump.
* Pierre Thomas (ankle) is a game-time decision, but we suspect he will sit. It's an aggravation of the ankle problem that marred his season. Chris Ivory (hamstring) is looking very healthy and could very well be the feature back.
* Jeremy Shockey (groin) is banged up and losing reps to Jimmy Graham. David Thomas (knee) is also a question mark.
* Sammie Straighter (hamstring) may be up with Arrelious Benn (knee) out for the year. Stroughter is a weak fantasy option regardless.
VIKINGS at LIONS
* Calvin Johnson (ankle) is a true game-time decision. We will know his status nice and early Sunday.
* Brett Favre (concussion) is almost certainly out. Joe Webb gets another shot.
* Sidney Rice (concussion) is also likely out. Bernard Berrian will start opposite Percy Harvin.
<BIG>4 P.M. GAMES</BIG>
COWBOYS at EAGLES
* Kevin Kolb is fully expected to start in place of Michael Vick (quad).
* DeSean Jackson (foot) is expected to be held out for rest purposes. Jason Avant gets the nod.
* Jon Kitna (oblique) is expected to sit. Stephen McGee will start.
GIANTS at REDSKINS
* Hakeem Nicks (toe) is out. Mario Manningham will start across from Derek Hagan.
* Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) is a full go in this must-win.
* Ryan Torain (ribs) should be fine despite a questionable tag.
BEARS at PACKERS
* Earl Bennett (ankle) may be held out as the Bears get ready for the playoffs.
JAGUARS at TEXANS
* Andre Johnson (ankle) is headed for surgery on his ankle and is out this week. Get Jacoby Jones going.
* David Garrard (finger) is out. Trent Edwards gets the nod.
* Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) is out, giving Rashad Jennings a chance to redeem himself.
* Mike Sims-Walker (ankle) is ready in this dream matchup.
TITANS at COLTS
* Mike Hart (ankle) may be healthy, but is fourth on the totem pole right now.
CHARGERS at BRONCOS
* Mike Tolbert (neck) is out. This is Ryan Mathews' big chance to shine.
* Malcom Floyd (hamstring) is ready to go opposite Vincent Jackson.
* Knowshon Moreno (ribs) is tentatively expected to play, but this could be a hot hand situation.
CARDINALS at 49ERS
* Alex Smith will be the starting quarterback for interim coach Jim Tomsula.
<BIG>SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL</BIG>
RAMS at SEAHAWKS
* Matt Hasselbeck (hip) looks like he is going to gut it out in this "playoff" game. Charlie Whitehurst will be extra prepared this week.
SURVIVOR PICK OF THE WEEK
Is anyone out there really still in Survivor? Perhaps you've negotiated a chop of the prize pool with others?
If I'm still in and playing, I'm obviously looking for a team with plenty to play for at home. The Ravens certainly fit the bill against a Bengals team coming off an upset win. Great spot. Same can be said for the Colts, Falcons and Packers.
I certainly would not trust the Chargers who aren't used to playing with nothing on the line, or the Steelers who have a tough spot in Cleveland.
MY TOUGHEST DECISION OF THE WEEK
None! I know there are still some leagues out there that go through Week 17, but I'm not in any of them. That said, we still need some action. I fired in a SnapDraft team, picks are here.
There are a lot of reasons you should be up to date on the latest injuries and playoff scenarios as we get set for Week 17. Some fantasy leagues are still running. Maybe you fired in some SnapDraft action, like me. Or perhaps you have a score to settle with Vegas (entertainment purposes only, of course).
Regardless, Gregg Rosenthal laid out the "who is trying and who isn't" situations in Goal Line Stand. The only update there is that the Bears are now hinting they may rest some starters.
As for the teams already eliminated from the playoffs, we are always on the lookout for talent. I'll have my eye in Denver, where a healthy Ryan Mathews will get a chance to prove he can be a feature back. Has his pass protection improved at all? Is he willing to put his nose in there? His matchup when running the ball couldn't be much better, but you can't play for the Chargers if you can't protect Philip Rivers.
How about some talented receiver prospects like Jerome Simpson in Cincinnati, Danario Alexander in St. Louis, Houston's Jacoby Jones or Philadelphia's Riley Cooper. They are all headed for tons of snaps, let's see what they can do.
Have your radar up for Week 17. Check out the Rotoworld News Page all morning for the latest information on all the game-time decisions. Also, be sure to use the rankings from Gregg Rosenthal/Chris Wesseling and you'll be good to go.
I've got you covered with the latest injury news right here.
<BIG>1 P.M. GAMES</BIG>
MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND
* Aaron Hernandez (hip) was downgraded on Friday and is not expected to play. Upgrade Rob Gronkowski.
* Deion Branch (knee) is likely going to sit out this meaningless game.
* Anthony Fasano (knee) is out. Mickey Shuler is expected to get the start.
BILLS at JETS
* Ryan Fitzpatrick (knee) is headed for a true game-time decision. Brian Brohm is the next man up.
* Mark Sanchez (shoulder) is going to start, but is expected to be pulled extremely early.
* Santonio Holmes (quad) also can't be trusted as a guy that may be sat down after a series or two.
* David Nelson (ribs) and Donald Jones (head) are both out. Naaman Rooselvelt will get another look.
BENGALS at RAVENS
* Chad Ochocinco (ankle) is out. Jerome Simpson is a sleeper WR3 play.
* Jermaine Gresham (knee) is almost certainly out.
* Todd Heap (thigh) is expected to play, but is a risk as he eases his way back into action.
STEELERS at BROWNS
* Peyton Hillis (ribs) looks like a true game-time decision. Even if active, he is a weak fantasy option in this brutal matchup.
* Ben Watson (ankle) is a go.
RAIDERS at CHIEFS
* Darren McFadden (toe) is a game-time decision and will likely split carries with Michael Bush even if active.
PANTHERS at FALCONS
* Steve Smith (calf) may end up playing, but no one should be using him.
BUCS at SAINTS
* Marques Colston had a scope on his knee earlier this week. It is hard to see him playing. Robert Meachem gets a bump.
* Pierre Thomas (ankle) is a game-time decision, but we suspect he will sit. It's an aggravation of the ankle problem that marred his season. Chris Ivory (hamstring) is looking very healthy and could very well be the feature back.
* Jeremy Shockey (groin) is banged up and losing reps to Jimmy Graham. David Thomas (knee) is also a question mark.
* Sammie Straighter (hamstring) may be up with Arrelious Benn (knee) out for the year. Stroughter is a weak fantasy option regardless.
VIKINGS at LIONS
* Calvin Johnson (ankle) is a true game-time decision. We will know his status nice and early Sunday.
* Brett Favre (concussion) is almost certainly out. Joe Webb gets another shot.
* Sidney Rice (concussion) is also likely out. Bernard Berrian will start opposite Percy Harvin.
<BIG>4 P.M. GAMES</BIG>
COWBOYS at EAGLES
* Kevin Kolb is fully expected to start in place of Michael Vick (quad).
* DeSean Jackson (foot) is expected to be held out for rest purposes. Jason Avant gets the nod.
* Jon Kitna (oblique) is expected to sit. Stephen McGee will start.
GIANTS at REDSKINS
* Hakeem Nicks (toe) is out. Mario Manningham will start across from Derek Hagan.
* Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) is a full go in this must-win.
* Ryan Torain (ribs) should be fine despite a questionable tag.
BEARS at PACKERS
* Earl Bennett (ankle) may be held out as the Bears get ready for the playoffs.
JAGUARS at TEXANS
* Andre Johnson (ankle) is headed for surgery on his ankle and is out this week. Get Jacoby Jones going.
* David Garrard (finger) is out. Trent Edwards gets the nod.
* Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) is out, giving Rashad Jennings a chance to redeem himself.
* Mike Sims-Walker (ankle) is ready in this dream matchup.
TITANS at COLTS
* Mike Hart (ankle) may be healthy, but is fourth on the totem pole right now.
CHARGERS at BRONCOS
* Mike Tolbert (neck) is out. This is Ryan Mathews' big chance to shine.
* Malcom Floyd (hamstring) is ready to go opposite Vincent Jackson.
* Knowshon Moreno (ribs) is tentatively expected to play, but this could be a hot hand situation.
CARDINALS at 49ERS
* Alex Smith will be the starting quarterback for interim coach Jim Tomsula.
<BIG>SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL</BIG>
RAMS at SEAHAWKS
* Matt Hasselbeck (hip) looks like he is going to gut it out in this "playoff" game. Charlie Whitehurst will be extra prepared this week.
SURVIVOR PICK OF THE WEEK
Is anyone out there really still in Survivor? Perhaps you've negotiated a chop of the prize pool with others?
If I'm still in and playing, I'm obviously looking for a team with plenty to play for at home. The Ravens certainly fit the bill against a Bengals team coming off an upset win. Great spot. Same can be said for the Colts, Falcons and Packers.
I certainly would not trust the Chargers who aren't used to playing with nothing on the line, or the Steelers who have a tough spot in Cleveland.
MY TOUGHEST DECISION OF THE WEEK
None! I know there are still some leagues out there that go through Week 17, but I'm not in any of them. That said, we still need some action. I fired in a SnapDraft team, picks are here.
That's a Wrap
Not convinced we take anything of value away from the NFL's regular season-finale with important players resting and scrubeenies posting career games? Consider two of last year's Week 17 breakout brigade. An afterthought all season in 2009, Brandon Lloyd posted 95 yards on 13 targets in a Week 17 game against the Chiefs. He went on to finish as the top fantasy receiver in 2010. Arian Foster, on the practice squad just a month before, gashed the Patriots for 145 yards and two touchdowns in the finale. As we all know, he went on to emerge as the 2010 season's breakout star. Let's take a look at this year's Week 17 wonders:
Joe McKnight, Jets - What can we say? The planets were aligned in Week 17. Jets coaches promised that the "Vomit Comet" (head-nod to @RumfordJohnny for the excellent nickname) would play "a ton" with LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene being rested for the playoffs. Better yet, McKnight's first start came against the league's worst run defense. He responded with the first 100-yard performance by a Jets back since Week 4 while also rushing for the most yards by a Jets rookie since Matt Snell's 180 back in 1964.
Jerome Simpson, Bengals - Fantasy's top receiver over the final two weeks, Simpson showed that his 6/124/2 play-making performance in Week 16 was no fluke. For an encore, he proved his mettle as a move-the-chains receiver, hauling in 12 catches for 123 yards and the Bengals' lone score. Thought to be a second-round bust just three weeks ago, Simpson has earned a starting job for 2011.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers - If only he had stayed healthy all season. With Mike Tolbert sidelined, Mathews churned out 120 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. The rookie showed his home-run ability with scores of 27 and 31 yards while also proving he could handle a heavy workload. With Tolbert and Darren Sproles due to hit free agency in 2011, Mathews is line for a major role next season.
Tim Tebow, Broncos - Opinions may still be divided on Tebow's NFL future, but there's no question that he has demonstrated the potential to emerge as a fantasy monster oin Denver. Tebow's 33.7 points were 8.7 more than the second-best fantasy quarterback's Week 17 total, and he's averaged 28.8 points in his first three NFL starts. For perspective, only Michael Vick averaged more per week over the course of the season.
Michael Bush, Raiders - Behind Bush's 171 yards and a touchdown on 29 touches, the Raiders became the first team since the 1970 merger to sweep their division and still miss the playoffs. It's another important game-tape for Bush's portfolio as he heads into free agent waters this offseason.
Brian Westbrook, 49ers - Behind 93 yards and two TDs on 14 touches, Westbrook enjoyed the fourth-best game of any running back in Week 17. The 31-year-old also became the only active player with 40 rushing touchdowns and 30 receiving touchdowns.
Editor's Note: Pick a new fantasy team just for today and win real cash with Snapdraft!
Fantasy MVP of 2010: Michael Vick, Eagles - Without making a judgment call on Week 17 Super Bowls, it is worth noting that the great majority of all leagues still use Week 16 as the championship bout. If yours is one of the leagues that uses the regular-season finale, see the player below for your most valuable player. For the rest of the fantasy world, a player that went undrafted in 99 percent of redraft leagues walked away as the trophy holder with an average of 33.9 fantasy points from Weeks 13-16. Vick finished with 29.7 points per week on the season, almost a full touchdown more than Aaron Rodgers' second-place of 24.5.
Fantasy Breakout Player of 2010: Arian Foster, Texans - It was widely reported Sunday evening that Foster's 1,616 rushing yards broke Priest Holmes' (1,615 yards) record for the most ever by an undrafted player, going back to the advent of the common draft in 1967. That wasn't even Foster's most impressive accomplishment, however. He also joined Holmes (1,615 / 672 in 2002) and LaDainian Tomlinson (1,645 / 725 in 2003) as the only three players in NFL history to top 1,600 rushing yards and 600 receiving yards in the same season. Darren McFadden (17.4 in 13 games) was the only back to come within 4.5 of Foster's 20.1 fantasy points per week. His 329.8 fantasy points lapped the field with Peyton Hillis and Adrian Peterson both falling more than 80 yards shy.
Fantasy Rookie of 2010: Mike Williams, Buccaneers - Williams (964 receiving yards) and LeGarrette Blount (1,007 rushing yards) became the first rookie teammates to lead all NFL rookies in their respective categories since Pat Harder (545 rushing yards) and Mal Kutner (634 receiving yards) of the Chicago Cardinals in 1946. Williams' 11 receiving TDs are the third-most by a rookie since the 1970 NFL merger. He finished as the No. 11 fantasy receiver with 161.5 points, bypassing Marques Colston (151.8) and Michael Clayton (161.3) for the second-best fantasy season by a rookie receiver in the past decade. Anquan Boldin's 101/1,377/8 line remains the top rookie season since Randy Moss' 69/1,313/17 line in 1998. Speaking of which . . .
Fantasy Disappointment of 2010: Randy Moss, Patriots / Vikings / Titans - The summer was filled with stories praising Moss for his grueling offseason regimen heading into his contract year. Dreams of 20+ touchdowns danced in fantasy owners' heads as he went off the board with an ADP of 1.09. Perhaps he could have at least sniffed those lofty expectations had he kept his mouth shut and enjoyed his stay in New England. As it was, though, his season nosedived after three TDs in his first three games. Not long after ranting his way out of Minnesota and landing Tennessee, Moss was discarded from fantasy rosters. He closed out the season as the No. 65 fantasy receiver with a 28/393/5 line.
Fantasy Fraud of 2010: Shonn Greene, Jets - The Jets' presumed backfield star, Greene went off draft boards as high as the late first round last summer. It wasn't just that LaDainian Tomlinson beat out Greene for the starting job. It was also that Greene stayed healthy all year and still never once reached valid RB2 status in standard leagues. In essence, he was a roster albatross for 17 weeks.
Fantasy Fluke of 2010: Brandon Lloyd, Broncos - It's not that Lloyd isn't talented. No player in the NFL makes more spectacular catches. Lloyd's leaping ability and body control are off the charts. At age 29, though, his 77/1,448/11 line doubled his previous best season. The perfect storm that created Lloyd's career-year won't resurface in 2011. It will likely be Tim Tebow, not Kyle Orton, throwing to him next season, and the passing attempts will plummet from Orton's record pace early in 2010.
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[SIZE=+1]Bounce-Back Bets[/SIZE]
Tony Romo / Miles Austin, Cowboys - Austin bolted out of the gates with three out of four games over nine catches and 140 yards with Romo at quarterback. His numbers nose-dived with Jon Kitna concentrating on short passes to tight ends and running backs over the final 10 games. With Austin, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Felix Jones at his disposal, Romo will rival Michael Vick for the most explosive arsenal in 2011.
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals - One of the most impressive stats of the 2010 season is that Fitz exceeded last year's yardage total despite starting the season with a knee injury and suffering through what was arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. Fitzgerald finished with a 90/1,137/6 line, good for 14th in fantasy points, while catching passes from the unholy law firm of Anderson, Hall, Skelton and Bartel.
Jahvid Best, Lions - NFL running backs, with a need for cutbacks and explosive change-of-gears, simply cannot succeed while playing through turf toe. An explosive talent with 4.35 speed and quick maneuvers morphs into a mediocre talent with 4.6 speed and molasses movement. As Best, Darren McFadden, and LaDainian Tomlinson have all shown the past few seasons, that's no match for NFL defenses. Best is next year's McFadden.
Jermichael Finley, Packers - Finley is unguardable. He was on an early-season pace to shatter the record for tight-end receiving yards before going down with a season-ending injury. When healthy, it's Finley -- not Greg Jennings -- who is Aaron Rodgers' No. 1 receiver.
[SIZE=+1]Awards Section[/SIZE]
Stat of the Week: Jamaal Charles joins Hall of Famer Jim Brown as the only players in NFL history to rush for at least 1,400 yards while averaging more than 6.30 yards per carry in a single season. Charles' 6.38 average is the third-highest since 1960. Had the Chiefs pulled him in the third quarter, Charles would have finished with a 6.50 average, highest in NFL history. He would have joined Bears legend Beattie Feathers (1934) as the only NFL running backs in the 1,000/6.5 club.
Runner-Up: Tom Brady extended three NFL records Sunday: 28 consecutive home wins as starter, 335 consecutive pass attempts without an interception and nine straight games with two or more passing TDs and no interceptions. He also became just the sixth player in NFL history to throw a touchdown pass in every game of a 16-game season. Brady's 111.0 passer rating in 2010 was the fifth-highest in NFL history.
Second Runner-Up: With Sunday's win over the Panthers, Matt Ryan tied Dan Marino for most wins by a starting quarterback (33) in his first three seasons since the 1970 merger.
Third Runner-Up: The 2010 Minnesota Vikings closed out the season with a 6-10 record. It's just the second time in Brett Favre's 20-year career (2005 Packers) that his team finished with a losing record.
Quote of the Week: Former Ravens coach Brian Billick on NFL Network breaking down the upcoming Rams at Seahawks showdown: "The 12th Man in Seattle is real. It's the first 11 I worry about."
Runner-Up: Asked if he wanted to tell former employers with the Bears, Redskins, and 49ers "I told you so," Brandon Lloyd replied: "No, I want to say, '(Bleep) you.' And I mean that in the most professional way."
Tweet of the Week: From @EricStangel, head writer of the Late Show with David Letterman: "Jets playing all kinds of backups today. In fact I think I just saw the guy who was sniffing Rex Ryan's wife's feet."
Runner-Up: From Sports Illustrated's @SI_Jim Trotter, while watching the Rams-Seahawks game Sunday night: "Sean Payton is home trying to figure out whether to rest his starters next week."
Second Runner-Up: From @sportspickle on Brian Hoyer replacing Tom Brady and immediately throwing two incompletions: "Brian Hoyer is no Tom Brady. He's probably married to a plus-size supermodel."
Fantasy MVP of Week 17: Arian Foster, Texans
Fantasy Breakout Player of Week 17: Jerome Simpson, Bengals
Fantasy Rookie of Week 17: Ryan Mathews, Chargers / Tim Tebow, Broncos
Fantasy Disappointment of Week 17: Calvin Johnson, Lions
Fantasy Fraud of Week 17: Kevin Kolb, Eagles
Fantasy Fluke of Week 17: Joe McKnight, Jets
[SIZE=+1]Fine Fifteen Fantasy Offenses of 2010[/SIZE]
1. Eagles - In points per game: the No. 1 QB, No. 6 RB, two Top-20 WRs.
2. Texans - No. 8 QB, No. 1 RB, No. 3 WR (in PPG), TEs combined to finish in Top-5.
3. Colts - No. 1 QB in total points, No. 7 WR, TEs combined to finish No. 2.
4. Giants - No. 7 QB, No. 13 RB, No. 2 WR (in PPG) + No. 20 WR.
5. Falcons - No. 9 QB, No. 9 RB, No. 3 WR, No. 8 TE
6. Chiefs - No. 15 QB, No. 4 RB, No. 2 WR, No. 20 TE
7. Patriots - Fantasy's No. 6 QB, No. 15 RB, No. 5 TE, two Top-40 WRs
8. Steelers - No. 7 QB (in PPG), No. 7 RB, No. 5 WR, No. 38 WR
9. Packers - No. 2 QB, No. 4 WR
10. Buccaneers - No. 10 QB, No. 24 RB, No. 11 WR, No. 6 TE
11. Chargers - No. 4 QB, No. 19 RB, No. 2 TE
12. Broncos - QBs combined to finish No. 5, No. 17 RB, No. 1 WR
13. Saints - No. 3 QB, No. 18 WR
14. Jaguars - In points per game: No. 12 QB, No. 7 RB, No. 5 TE
15. Ravens - No. 12 QB, No. 11 RB, two Top-26 WRs, No. 8 TE (in PPG)
Just Missed: Lions, Cowboys, Vikings
[SIZE=+1]Early Playoff Ranks[/SIZE]
1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Drew Brees, Saints
3. Ray Rice, Ravens
4. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
5. Peyton Manning, Colts
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
7. Mike Wallace, Steelers
8. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
9. Wes Welker, Patriots
10. Reggie Wayne, Colts
Not convinced we take anything of value away from the NFL's regular season-finale with important players resting and scrubeenies posting career games? Consider two of last year's Week 17 breakout brigade. An afterthought all season in 2009, Brandon Lloyd posted 95 yards on 13 targets in a Week 17 game against the Chiefs. He went on to finish as the top fantasy receiver in 2010. Arian Foster, on the practice squad just a month before, gashed the Patriots for 145 yards and two touchdowns in the finale. As we all know, he went on to emerge as the 2010 season's breakout star. Let's take a look at this year's Week 17 wonders:
Joe McKnight, Jets - What can we say? The planets were aligned in Week 17. Jets coaches promised that the "Vomit Comet" (head-nod to @RumfordJohnny for the excellent nickname) would play "a ton" with LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene being rested for the playoffs. Better yet, McKnight's first start came against the league's worst run defense. He responded with the first 100-yard performance by a Jets back since Week 4 while also rushing for the most yards by a Jets rookie since Matt Snell's 180 back in 1964.
Jerome Simpson, Bengals - Fantasy's top receiver over the final two weeks, Simpson showed that his 6/124/2 play-making performance in Week 16 was no fluke. For an encore, he proved his mettle as a move-the-chains receiver, hauling in 12 catches for 123 yards and the Bengals' lone score. Thought to be a second-round bust just three weeks ago, Simpson has earned a starting job for 2011.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers - If only he had stayed healthy all season. With Mike Tolbert sidelined, Mathews churned out 120 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. The rookie showed his home-run ability with scores of 27 and 31 yards while also proving he could handle a heavy workload. With Tolbert and Darren Sproles due to hit free agency in 2011, Mathews is line for a major role next season.
Tim Tebow, Broncos - Opinions may still be divided on Tebow's NFL future, but there's no question that he has demonstrated the potential to emerge as a fantasy monster oin Denver. Tebow's 33.7 points were 8.7 more than the second-best fantasy quarterback's Week 17 total, and he's averaged 28.8 points in his first three NFL starts. For perspective, only Michael Vick averaged more per week over the course of the season.
Michael Bush, Raiders - Behind Bush's 171 yards and a touchdown on 29 touches, the Raiders became the first team since the 1970 merger to sweep their division and still miss the playoffs. It's another important game-tape for Bush's portfolio as he heads into free agent waters this offseason.
Brian Westbrook, 49ers - Behind 93 yards and two TDs on 14 touches, Westbrook enjoyed the fourth-best game of any running back in Week 17. The 31-year-old also became the only active player with 40 rushing touchdowns and 30 receiving touchdowns.
Editor's Note: Pick a new fantasy team just for today and win real cash with Snapdraft!
Fantasy MVP of 2010: Michael Vick, Eagles - Without making a judgment call on Week 17 Super Bowls, it is worth noting that the great majority of all leagues still use Week 16 as the championship bout. If yours is one of the leagues that uses the regular-season finale, see the player below for your most valuable player. For the rest of the fantasy world, a player that went undrafted in 99 percent of redraft leagues walked away as the trophy holder with an average of 33.9 fantasy points from Weeks 13-16. Vick finished with 29.7 points per week on the season, almost a full touchdown more than Aaron Rodgers' second-place of 24.5.
Fantasy Breakout Player of 2010: Arian Foster, Texans - It was widely reported Sunday evening that Foster's 1,616 rushing yards broke Priest Holmes' (1,615 yards) record for the most ever by an undrafted player, going back to the advent of the common draft in 1967. That wasn't even Foster's most impressive accomplishment, however. He also joined Holmes (1,615 / 672 in 2002) and LaDainian Tomlinson (1,645 / 725 in 2003) as the only three players in NFL history to top 1,600 rushing yards and 600 receiving yards in the same season. Darren McFadden (17.4 in 13 games) was the only back to come within 4.5 of Foster's 20.1 fantasy points per week. His 329.8 fantasy points lapped the field with Peyton Hillis and Adrian Peterson both falling more than 80 yards shy.
Fantasy Rookie of 2010: Mike Williams, Buccaneers - Williams (964 receiving yards) and LeGarrette Blount (1,007 rushing yards) became the first rookie teammates to lead all NFL rookies in their respective categories since Pat Harder (545 rushing yards) and Mal Kutner (634 receiving yards) of the Chicago Cardinals in 1946. Williams' 11 receiving TDs are the third-most by a rookie since the 1970 NFL merger. He finished as the No. 11 fantasy receiver with 161.5 points, bypassing Marques Colston (151.8) and Michael Clayton (161.3) for the second-best fantasy season by a rookie receiver in the past decade. Anquan Boldin's 101/1,377/8 line remains the top rookie season since Randy Moss' 69/1,313/17 line in 1998. Speaking of which . . .
Fantasy Disappointment of 2010: Randy Moss, Patriots / Vikings / Titans - The summer was filled with stories praising Moss for his grueling offseason regimen heading into his contract year. Dreams of 20+ touchdowns danced in fantasy owners' heads as he went off the board with an ADP of 1.09. Perhaps he could have at least sniffed those lofty expectations had he kept his mouth shut and enjoyed his stay in New England. As it was, though, his season nosedived after three TDs in his first three games. Not long after ranting his way out of Minnesota and landing Tennessee, Moss was discarded from fantasy rosters. He closed out the season as the No. 65 fantasy receiver with a 28/393/5 line.
Fantasy Fraud of 2010: Shonn Greene, Jets - The Jets' presumed backfield star, Greene went off draft boards as high as the late first round last summer. It wasn't just that LaDainian Tomlinson beat out Greene for the starting job. It was also that Greene stayed healthy all year and still never once reached valid RB2 status in standard leagues. In essence, he was a roster albatross for 17 weeks.
Fantasy Fluke of 2010: Brandon Lloyd, Broncos - It's not that Lloyd isn't talented. No player in the NFL makes more spectacular catches. Lloyd's leaping ability and body control are off the charts. At age 29, though, his 77/1,448/11 line doubled his previous best season. The perfect storm that created Lloyd's career-year won't resurface in 2011. It will likely be Tim Tebow, not Kyle Orton, throwing to him next season, and the passing attempts will plummet from Orton's record pace early in 2010.
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[SIZE=+1]Bounce-Back Bets[/SIZE]
Tony Romo / Miles Austin, Cowboys - Austin bolted out of the gates with three out of four games over nine catches and 140 yards with Romo at quarterback. His numbers nose-dived with Jon Kitna concentrating on short passes to tight ends and running backs over the final 10 games. With Austin, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Felix Jones at his disposal, Romo will rival Michael Vick for the most explosive arsenal in 2011.
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals - One of the most impressive stats of the 2010 season is that Fitz exceeded last year's yardage total despite starting the season with a knee injury and suffering through what was arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. Fitzgerald finished with a 90/1,137/6 line, good for 14th in fantasy points, while catching passes from the unholy law firm of Anderson, Hall, Skelton and Bartel.
Jahvid Best, Lions - NFL running backs, with a need for cutbacks and explosive change-of-gears, simply cannot succeed while playing through turf toe. An explosive talent with 4.35 speed and quick maneuvers morphs into a mediocre talent with 4.6 speed and molasses movement. As Best, Darren McFadden, and LaDainian Tomlinson have all shown the past few seasons, that's no match for NFL defenses. Best is next year's McFadden.
Jermichael Finley, Packers - Finley is unguardable. He was on an early-season pace to shatter the record for tight-end receiving yards before going down with a season-ending injury. When healthy, it's Finley -- not Greg Jennings -- who is Aaron Rodgers' No. 1 receiver.
[SIZE=+1]Awards Section[/SIZE]
Stat of the Week: Jamaal Charles joins Hall of Famer Jim Brown as the only players in NFL history to rush for at least 1,400 yards while averaging more than 6.30 yards per carry in a single season. Charles' 6.38 average is the third-highest since 1960. Had the Chiefs pulled him in the third quarter, Charles would have finished with a 6.50 average, highest in NFL history. He would have joined Bears legend Beattie Feathers (1934) as the only NFL running backs in the 1,000/6.5 club.
Runner-Up: Tom Brady extended three NFL records Sunday: 28 consecutive home wins as starter, 335 consecutive pass attempts without an interception and nine straight games with two or more passing TDs and no interceptions. He also became just the sixth player in NFL history to throw a touchdown pass in every game of a 16-game season. Brady's 111.0 passer rating in 2010 was the fifth-highest in NFL history.
Second Runner-Up: With Sunday's win over the Panthers, Matt Ryan tied Dan Marino for most wins by a starting quarterback (33) in his first three seasons since the 1970 merger.
Third Runner-Up: The 2010 Minnesota Vikings closed out the season with a 6-10 record. It's just the second time in Brett Favre's 20-year career (2005 Packers) that his team finished with a losing record.
Quote of the Week: Former Ravens coach Brian Billick on NFL Network breaking down the upcoming Rams at Seahawks showdown: "The 12th Man in Seattle is real. It's the first 11 I worry about."
Runner-Up: Asked if he wanted to tell former employers with the Bears, Redskins, and 49ers "I told you so," Brandon Lloyd replied: "No, I want to say, '(Bleep) you.' And I mean that in the most professional way."
Tweet of the Week: From @EricStangel, head writer of the Late Show with David Letterman: "Jets playing all kinds of backups today. In fact I think I just saw the guy who was sniffing Rex Ryan's wife's feet."
Runner-Up: From Sports Illustrated's @SI_Jim Trotter, while watching the Rams-Seahawks game Sunday night: "Sean Payton is home trying to figure out whether to rest his starters next week."
Second Runner-Up: From @sportspickle on Brian Hoyer replacing Tom Brady and immediately throwing two incompletions: "Brian Hoyer is no Tom Brady. He's probably married to a plus-size supermodel."
Fantasy MVP of Week 17: Arian Foster, Texans
Fantasy Breakout Player of Week 17: Jerome Simpson, Bengals
Fantasy Rookie of Week 17: Ryan Mathews, Chargers / Tim Tebow, Broncos
Fantasy Disappointment of Week 17: Calvin Johnson, Lions
Fantasy Fraud of Week 17: Kevin Kolb, Eagles
Fantasy Fluke of Week 17: Joe McKnight, Jets
[SIZE=+1]Fine Fifteen Fantasy Offenses of 2010[/SIZE]
1. Eagles - In points per game: the No. 1 QB, No. 6 RB, two Top-20 WRs.
2. Texans - No. 8 QB, No. 1 RB, No. 3 WR (in PPG), TEs combined to finish in Top-5.
3. Colts - No. 1 QB in total points, No. 7 WR, TEs combined to finish No. 2.
4. Giants - No. 7 QB, No. 13 RB, No. 2 WR (in PPG) + No. 20 WR.
5. Falcons - No. 9 QB, No. 9 RB, No. 3 WR, No. 8 TE
6. Chiefs - No. 15 QB, No. 4 RB, No. 2 WR, No. 20 TE
7. Patriots - Fantasy's No. 6 QB, No. 15 RB, No. 5 TE, two Top-40 WRs
8. Steelers - No. 7 QB (in PPG), No. 7 RB, No. 5 WR, No. 38 WR
9. Packers - No. 2 QB, No. 4 WR
10. Buccaneers - No. 10 QB, No. 24 RB, No. 11 WR, No. 6 TE
11. Chargers - No. 4 QB, No. 19 RB, No. 2 TE
12. Broncos - QBs combined to finish No. 5, No. 17 RB, No. 1 WR
13. Saints - No. 3 QB, No. 18 WR
14. Jaguars - In points per game: No. 12 QB, No. 7 RB, No. 5 TE
15. Ravens - No. 12 QB, No. 11 RB, two Top-26 WRs, No. 8 TE (in PPG)
Just Missed: Lions, Cowboys, Vikings
[SIZE=+1]Early Playoff Ranks[/SIZE]
1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Drew Brees, Saints
3. Ray Rice, Ravens
4. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
5. Peyton Manning, Colts
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
7. Mike Wallace, Steelers
8. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
9. Wes Welker, Patriots
10. Reggie Wayne, Colts
Fantasy Playoff Rankings
Dan O'Brien, a senior oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can't remember a playoff team with longer odds than Seattle's 250-1 this year. "It's tough to imagine," O'Brien said. "You'd have to go back to a team having to beat the dominant (Chicago) Bears or dominant San Francisco) 49ers back in the 1980s. Even then you're talking about only two layers (of playoffs), not that third game. That's another multiplier as well."
The first team in NFL history to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record in a non-strike season is a gift from the fantasy playoff gods. In leagues where a position is forfeited when a starter's team loses, it's a good idea to load up on Saints for an early head start on the competition.
After scoring a league-leading 518 points, the Patriots are strong bets to play two home games before the Super Bowl. New England leads the playoff field with 6-5 odds, in large part because Tom Brady has lost just one game since the start of the 2007 season. That dominance is reflected in this year's playoff rankings.
Rounding out the Super Bowl odds as off Tuesday morning:
Steelers 9-2
Falcons 5-1
Eagles 8-1
Bears 10-1
Saints 10-1
Ravens 11-1
Packers 12-1
Colts 14-1
Jets 25-1
Chiefs 40-1
In addition to the Saints, I plan on loading up on Ravens and Colts in the wild card round. The Chiefs went 8-2 against teams that finished with a losing record and 2-4 against teams .500 or better. I still don't understand what the Jets hang their hat on right now. They're certainly not a dominant defensive team, and they haven't run the ball well in a meaningful game since the first half of the season.
The stars on the Packers and Eagles are ultimate boom-or-bust picks. That game is the biggest pick'em matchup of the wild card round. It's not just that either team could win, but also that either team could blow the other out with the right momentum. It's not hard to envision Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin catching fire and torching the Green Bay secondary. It seems just as likely, however, that Dom Capers will dial up the pressure on Vick just as the Vikings and Giants have done to success.
Where it gets exceedingly murky in the NFC is the divisional round. The Saints, Eagles, and Packers are every bit as talented as the Bears and Falcons. The Eagles blew out the Falcons early in the season, the Saints knocked them off at the Georgia Dome in Week 16, and the Packers were one Aaron Rodgers fumble away from pulling off the same feat in Atlanta. With an 11-5 record artificially inflated by bad calls in both games to the Lions, matchups against backup quarterbacks, and just plain luck, the Bears just aren't that imposing. Sorry, Bears fans. I love your franchise, but this year's team leaves me with no confidence.
On to the rankings. For a quick primer on playoff fantasy football, check out Evan Silva's how-to column from a few years ago. The rules are similar to regular fantasy football, except that total points are the key. Pick a starting team, possibly a bench, and let them go at it. Myfantasyleague.com is hosting Bonus Playoff leagues.
[SIZE=+1]Quarterbacks[/SIZE]
1. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
Brady is playing as well right now as any quarterback has ever played the position. He's working on streaks of 28 consecutive home wins as a starter, 335 consecutive pass attempts without an interception and nine straight games with two or more passing TDs and no interceptions. The Saints aren't losing to the Seahawks, so Brees is almost guaranteed two games.
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Peyton Manning
5. Michael Vick
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Matt Ryan
8. Jay Cutler
9. Joe Flacco
Don't sleep on the Steelers' passing game. With the spotlight shining on a porous offensive line, it's gone unnoticed that rookie receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown have emerged next to Mike Wallace to inject a dynamic element into the aerial attack. Manning has traditionally owned Rex Ryan defenses. Vick and Rodgers were the top two fantasy QBs this season, and one of them will get at least two games. The Falcons and Bears won't be big favorites in their divisional round contests. Flacco's playoff struggles the past two seasons are reason for pause.
10. Mark Sanchez
11. Matt Cassel
12. Charlie Whitehurst
13. Matt Hasselbeck
Let someone else gamble on Sanchez's bum shoulder. I'm not buying Cassel's numbers artificially inflated by the weakest pass defense schedule I've ever seen. The Seahawks are preparing both quarterbacks to start this week's game. It wouldn't be a bad idea to get Whitehurst the playoff experience since Hasselbeck is unlikely to return in 2011.
Editor's Note: Pick a new fantasy team just for today and win real cash with Snapdraft!
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[SIZE=+1]Running Backs[/SIZE]
1. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
2. Ray Rice
3. Rashard Mendenhall
4. Michael Turner
5. LeSean McCoy
6. Matt Forte
The Ravens finally have Rice humming just in time for the playoffs. Green-Ellis, Mendenhall, and Turner are easily the best bets for a multi-touchdown performance in any one game. McCoy and Forte both receive considerable upgrades in PPR formats.
7. Jamaal Charles
8. Pierre Thomas
9. Joseph Addai
10. Danny Woodhead
11. Shonn Greene
Charles is easily the best running back in the postseason, but I'm finding it hard to muster up confidence in the Chiefs this week. Thomas and Chris Ivory both have question marks on health and workload. Addai is the Colts' goal-line back, pushing him ahead of Dom Rhodes and Donald Brown. Woodhead is a sneaky pick on the Super Bowl favorite. The Jets are saddling Greene up for a heavy workload, just as they did last year.
Update: The Saints placed Chris Ivory (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday. Pierre Thomas' status for the Seattle game remains uncertain. He's expected to be listed as "questionable" on the team's official injury report. Julius Jones would pick up extra snaps if Thomas can't go.
12. LaDainian Tomlinson
13. Reggie Bush
14. Brandon Jackson
15. Thomas Jones
16. Marshawn Lynch
Starters with question marks or shaky matchups. Tomlinson could morph into a third-down back with the Jets planning on pounding Greene. Bush stepped up on the big stage in last year's playoffs, but he's had just one decent game since returning from a broken leg. The Packers can't run and the Seahawks will be forced to go away from Lynch once the Saints jump out to an early lead. Jones is running on fumes.
17. Willis McGahee
18. Dominic Rhodes
19. Donald Brown
20. John Kuhn
21. Jason Snelling
22. Chester Taylor
23. Julius Jones
24. Justin Forsett
The best of the backups, timeshare backs, and pass-catchers. Rhodes has outplayed Brown of late, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he ended up sharing equally with Addai. McGahee and Kuhn both receive a boost in TD-heavy formats. Snelling, Taylor, and Forsett are purely third-down backs.
25. Jerome Harrison
26. Isaac Redman
27. James Starks
28. Dimitri Nance
29. Mewelde Moore
30. Joe McKnight
The running back dregs. Harrison won't see more than 3-4 touches per game barring injury to McCoy. The same goes for Redman, Moore, and McKnight. Starks and Nance remain behind an underwhelming Brandon Jackson.
[SIZE=+1]Wide Receivers[/SIZE]
1. Mike Wallace
2. Roddy White
3. Wes Welker
4. DeSean Jackson
5. Greg Jennings
6. Pierre Garcon
7. Reggie Wayne
8. Jeremy Maclin
9. Deion Branch
The cream of the crop. Wallace is playing as well as any receiver in the NFL, and the Steelers have a legit chance at the Super Bowl. White is the safest bet for double-digit targets, but will he play two games? Jackson, Maclin, and Jennings are boom-or-bust picks. Wayne gets docked for the Revis Island factor, leaving Garcon as the top playmaker against the Jets. Welker and Branch get the extra credit that goes to Super Bowl favorites.
10. Hines Ward
11. Dwayne Bowe
12. Marques Colston
13. Santonio Holmes
14. Anquan Boldin
15. Derrick Mason
16. Johnny Knox
17. Braylon Edwards
Ward's legs are gone, but I wouldn't bet against the cagey veteran at playoff time. This is essentially a red-light grade for Colston. Let someone else gamble on him a week and half after arthroscopic knee surgery. Boldin is the Ravens' best receiver, but Mason remains Joe Flacco's security blanket. I just don't have the confidence that Holmes, Edwards, and Knox will play more than one game.
18. Donald Driver
19. Robert Meachem
20. Lance Moore
21. James Jones
22. Blair White
23. Mike Williams
24. Devery Henderson
25. Emmanuel Sanders
26. Devin Hester
27. Earl Bennett
28. Jordy Nelson
29. Michael Jenkins
The second, third, and fourth receivers on the Saints and Packers aren't reliable, but any one of them could strike for a 100-yard performance. White won't top 50 yards, but he's a decent bet for a score in any game. Give Hester a huge boost in return-yardage leagues.
30. Jerricho Cotchery
31. Jason Avant
32. Brandon Tate
33. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
34. Ben Obomanu
35. Dexter McCluster
36. Donte Stallworth
37. Harry Douglas
38. Chris Chambers
39. Ruvell Martin
The best of the rest. It's a hodge-podge of No. 3 and No. 4 receivers without steady offensive roles.
[SIZE=+1]Tight Ends[/SIZE]
1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Jacob Tamme
3. Tony Gonzalez
Only Jason Witten scored more fantasy points over the final three weeks of the season than Gronkowski, who is coming off his first career 100-yard performance in the regular-season finale. Tamme and Gonzalez are close, with the former a better pick in yardage-heavy leagues and the latter more likely to find the end zone.
4. Todd Heap
5. Jimmy Graham
6. Aaron Hernandez
7. Heath Miller
8. Brent Celek
9. Dustin Keller
Heap looked healthy while leading the Ravens in receiving yards in Week 17. Superfreak Graham has emerged as Drew Brees' version of Gronk. Hernandez can break out for a monster game at any time, but there's downside, too, considering his fickle snap counts. Miller, Celek, and Keller are all top-10 talents lacking consistency.
10. Jeremy Shockey
11. Greg Olsen
12. Tony Moeaki
13. John Carlson
14. Andrew Quarless
With Graham emerging, Shockey hasn't topped 30 yards since Week 4. Olsen doesn't have a big enough role in Mike Martz's offense. Moeaki could be one and done. Carlson and Quarless are afterthoughts in the passing game.
Dan O'Brien, a senior oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can't remember a playoff team with longer odds than Seattle's 250-1 this year. "It's tough to imagine," O'Brien said. "You'd have to go back to a team having to beat the dominant (Chicago) Bears or dominant San Francisco) 49ers back in the 1980s. Even then you're talking about only two layers (of playoffs), not that third game. That's another multiplier as well."
The first team in NFL history to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record in a non-strike season is a gift from the fantasy playoff gods. In leagues where a position is forfeited when a starter's team loses, it's a good idea to load up on Saints for an early head start on the competition.
After scoring a league-leading 518 points, the Patriots are strong bets to play two home games before the Super Bowl. New England leads the playoff field with 6-5 odds, in large part because Tom Brady has lost just one game since the start of the 2007 season. That dominance is reflected in this year's playoff rankings.
Rounding out the Super Bowl odds as off Tuesday morning:
Steelers 9-2
Falcons 5-1
Eagles 8-1
Bears 10-1
Saints 10-1
Ravens 11-1
Packers 12-1
Colts 14-1
Jets 25-1
Chiefs 40-1
In addition to the Saints, I plan on loading up on Ravens and Colts in the wild card round. The Chiefs went 8-2 against teams that finished with a losing record and 2-4 against teams .500 or better. I still don't understand what the Jets hang their hat on right now. They're certainly not a dominant defensive team, and they haven't run the ball well in a meaningful game since the first half of the season.
The stars on the Packers and Eagles are ultimate boom-or-bust picks. That game is the biggest pick'em matchup of the wild card round. It's not just that either team could win, but also that either team could blow the other out with the right momentum. It's not hard to envision Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin catching fire and torching the Green Bay secondary. It seems just as likely, however, that Dom Capers will dial up the pressure on Vick just as the Vikings and Giants have done to success.
Where it gets exceedingly murky in the NFC is the divisional round. The Saints, Eagles, and Packers are every bit as talented as the Bears and Falcons. The Eagles blew out the Falcons early in the season, the Saints knocked them off at the Georgia Dome in Week 16, and the Packers were one Aaron Rodgers fumble away from pulling off the same feat in Atlanta. With an 11-5 record artificially inflated by bad calls in both games to the Lions, matchups against backup quarterbacks, and just plain luck, the Bears just aren't that imposing. Sorry, Bears fans. I love your franchise, but this year's team leaves me with no confidence.
On to the rankings. For a quick primer on playoff fantasy football, check out Evan Silva's how-to column from a few years ago. The rules are similar to regular fantasy football, except that total points are the key. Pick a starting team, possibly a bench, and let them go at it. Myfantasyleague.com is hosting Bonus Playoff leagues.
[SIZE=+1]Quarterbacks[/SIZE]
1. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
Brady is playing as well right now as any quarterback has ever played the position. He's working on streaks of 28 consecutive home wins as a starter, 335 consecutive pass attempts without an interception and nine straight games with two or more passing TDs and no interceptions. The Saints aren't losing to the Seahawks, so Brees is almost guaranteed two games.
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Peyton Manning
5. Michael Vick
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Matt Ryan
8. Jay Cutler
9. Joe Flacco
Don't sleep on the Steelers' passing game. With the spotlight shining on a porous offensive line, it's gone unnoticed that rookie receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown have emerged next to Mike Wallace to inject a dynamic element into the aerial attack. Manning has traditionally owned Rex Ryan defenses. Vick and Rodgers were the top two fantasy QBs this season, and one of them will get at least two games. The Falcons and Bears won't be big favorites in their divisional round contests. Flacco's playoff struggles the past two seasons are reason for pause.
10. Mark Sanchez
11. Matt Cassel
12. Charlie Whitehurst
13. Matt Hasselbeck
Let someone else gamble on Sanchez's bum shoulder. I'm not buying Cassel's numbers artificially inflated by the weakest pass defense schedule I've ever seen. The Seahawks are preparing both quarterbacks to start this week's game. It wouldn't be a bad idea to get Whitehurst the playoff experience since Hasselbeck is unlikely to return in 2011.
Editor's Note: Pick a new fantasy team just for today and win real cash with Snapdraft!
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[SIZE=+1]Running Backs[/SIZE]
1. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
2. Ray Rice
3. Rashard Mendenhall
4. Michael Turner
5. LeSean McCoy
6. Matt Forte
The Ravens finally have Rice humming just in time for the playoffs. Green-Ellis, Mendenhall, and Turner are easily the best bets for a multi-touchdown performance in any one game. McCoy and Forte both receive considerable upgrades in PPR formats.
7. Jamaal Charles
8. Pierre Thomas
9. Joseph Addai
10. Danny Woodhead
11. Shonn Greene
Charles is easily the best running back in the postseason, but I'm finding it hard to muster up confidence in the Chiefs this week. Thomas and Chris Ivory both have question marks on health and workload. Addai is the Colts' goal-line back, pushing him ahead of Dom Rhodes and Donald Brown. Woodhead is a sneaky pick on the Super Bowl favorite. The Jets are saddling Greene up for a heavy workload, just as they did last year.
Update: The Saints placed Chris Ivory (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday. Pierre Thomas' status for the Seattle game remains uncertain. He's expected to be listed as "questionable" on the team's official injury report. Julius Jones would pick up extra snaps if Thomas can't go.
12. LaDainian Tomlinson
13. Reggie Bush
14. Brandon Jackson
15. Thomas Jones
16. Marshawn Lynch
Starters with question marks or shaky matchups. Tomlinson could morph into a third-down back with the Jets planning on pounding Greene. Bush stepped up on the big stage in last year's playoffs, but he's had just one decent game since returning from a broken leg. The Packers can't run and the Seahawks will be forced to go away from Lynch once the Saints jump out to an early lead. Jones is running on fumes.
17. Willis McGahee
18. Dominic Rhodes
19. Donald Brown
20. John Kuhn
21. Jason Snelling
22. Chester Taylor
23. Julius Jones
24. Justin Forsett
The best of the backups, timeshare backs, and pass-catchers. Rhodes has outplayed Brown of late, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he ended up sharing equally with Addai. McGahee and Kuhn both receive a boost in TD-heavy formats. Snelling, Taylor, and Forsett are purely third-down backs.
25. Jerome Harrison
26. Isaac Redman
27. James Starks
28. Dimitri Nance
29. Mewelde Moore
30. Joe McKnight
The running back dregs. Harrison won't see more than 3-4 touches per game barring injury to McCoy. The same goes for Redman, Moore, and McKnight. Starks and Nance remain behind an underwhelming Brandon Jackson.
[SIZE=+1]Wide Receivers[/SIZE]
1. Mike Wallace
2. Roddy White
3. Wes Welker
4. DeSean Jackson
5. Greg Jennings
6. Pierre Garcon
7. Reggie Wayne
8. Jeremy Maclin
9. Deion Branch
The cream of the crop. Wallace is playing as well as any receiver in the NFL, and the Steelers have a legit chance at the Super Bowl. White is the safest bet for double-digit targets, but will he play two games? Jackson, Maclin, and Jennings are boom-or-bust picks. Wayne gets docked for the Revis Island factor, leaving Garcon as the top playmaker against the Jets. Welker and Branch get the extra credit that goes to Super Bowl favorites.
10. Hines Ward
11. Dwayne Bowe
12. Marques Colston
13. Santonio Holmes
14. Anquan Boldin
15. Derrick Mason
16. Johnny Knox
17. Braylon Edwards
Ward's legs are gone, but I wouldn't bet against the cagey veteran at playoff time. This is essentially a red-light grade for Colston. Let someone else gamble on him a week and half after arthroscopic knee surgery. Boldin is the Ravens' best receiver, but Mason remains Joe Flacco's security blanket. I just don't have the confidence that Holmes, Edwards, and Knox will play more than one game.
18. Donald Driver
19. Robert Meachem
20. Lance Moore
21. James Jones
22. Blair White
23. Mike Williams
24. Devery Henderson
25. Emmanuel Sanders
26. Devin Hester
27. Earl Bennett
28. Jordy Nelson
29. Michael Jenkins
The second, third, and fourth receivers on the Saints and Packers aren't reliable, but any one of them could strike for a 100-yard performance. White won't top 50 yards, but he's a decent bet for a score in any game. Give Hester a huge boost in return-yardage leagues.
30. Jerricho Cotchery
31. Jason Avant
32. Brandon Tate
33. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
34. Ben Obomanu
35. Dexter McCluster
36. Donte Stallworth
37. Harry Douglas
38. Chris Chambers
39. Ruvell Martin
The best of the rest. It's a hodge-podge of No. 3 and No. 4 receivers without steady offensive roles.
[SIZE=+1]Tight Ends[/SIZE]
1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Jacob Tamme
3. Tony Gonzalez
Only Jason Witten scored more fantasy points over the final three weeks of the season than Gronkowski, who is coming off his first career 100-yard performance in the regular-season finale. Tamme and Gonzalez are close, with the former a better pick in yardage-heavy leagues and the latter more likely to find the end zone.
4. Todd Heap
5. Jimmy Graham
6. Aaron Hernandez
7. Heath Miller
8. Brent Celek
9. Dustin Keller
Heap looked healthy while leading the Ravens in receiving yards in Week 17. Superfreak Graham has emerged as Drew Brees' version of Gronk. Hernandez can break out for a monster game at any time, but there's downside, too, considering his fickle snap counts. Miller, Celek, and Keller are all top-10 talents lacking consistency.
10. Jeremy Shockey
11. Greg Olsen
12. Tony Moeaki
13. John Carlson
14. Andrew Quarless
With Graham emerging, Shockey hasn't topped 30 yards since Week 4. Olsen doesn't have a big enough role in Mike Martz's offense. Moeaki could be one and done. Carlson and Quarless are afterthoughts in the passing game.
Dominate the postseason
Playoff fantasy pools: they are a great way to recoup some money, reclaim bragging rights, or just keep a Saturday night game interesting when the Saints are beating the Seahawks by 24 points at halftime.
There are hundreds of variations on the "playoff fantasy" format: auctions, weekly redrafts, single-elimination tournaments and so on. There's only one constant: just like in the regular season, you must draft good players who produce big numbers.
We wrap up this season's 'Going Deep' series with some no-nonsense advice about potential postseason fantasy stars: who is slumping, who could get lost in the shuffle, and who can help you keep the fun flowing into February.
The Falcons Triplets: No playoff team is as predictable or reliable as the Falcons. You know the ball will get funneled through three players: quarterback Matt Ryan, running back Michael Turner and receiver Roddy White. In a postseason full of running back committees and multi-receiver confusion, the Falcons offer safe harbor: they aren't suddenly going to start targeting Ellis Weems a dozen times in the red zone.
The Falcons throw an average of 11.2 passes per game to White, making him the best receiver in the fantasy playoff pool. Turner has had at least 15 carries every week except Week 2, when he was hurt early in the game. Keep in mind, though, that Turner has zero value as a receiver, with three catches for 12 yards in the last nine games. In a PPR league, Ray Rice or Shady McCoy is a much more appealing option than Turner.
Ryan may get overlooked in the rush to acquire Brady-Brees-Vick-Manning. He has thrown at least one touchdown in every game except the season opener and has had nine multi-touchdown games. You can pencil in a 22-of-36, 250 yard, two-touchdown performance almost every time he takes the field. Wait for Ryan to fall to you, and you can concentrate on getting the most from your backs and receivers.
The Ravens Passing Game: Anquan Boldin has been targeted just nine times in the last three weeks, catching just five passes for 26 yards. That's a mind-boggling slump – Jason Snelling has more than twice as many receiving yards as Boldin in the last three weeks – and it's a byproduct of the fact that the Ravens just aren't passing very much. Joe Flacco has thrown just 19.7 passes per game in the last three games, and most of those passes have been short dump-offs, not the usual bombs that drive the Ravens offense. John Harbaugh may keep things conservative against a Chiefs defense that allows opponents to complete just 54.9 percent of passes and has a pair of solid young cornerbacks.
The Ravens slump may be a boon to bargain hunters: Boldin, Derrick Mason and Todd Heap may slip through the cracks of a draft or auction. If you select one of them, you should balance your ticket with a high-target complementary receiver. Try to get Greg Jennings, Wes Welker or Jeremy Maclin to support Boldin or Mason, and you will have one receiver catching 6-7 passes while the Ravens wait for the bombs to start dropping again. <!--RW-->
The Bears Receivers: Five different Bears receivers caught between 40 and 51 passes this year, including running back Matt Forte and tight end Greg Olsen. No Bears receiver caught more than five touchdown passes. The democratic approach will drive you crazy in the playoffs: draft Devin Hester, and you can be certain Johnny Knox will catch two touchdown passes.
Knox led the Bears in targets this season, with 100 passes thrown his way; no one else had more than 73. More importantly, Earl Bennett led the team with 18 red zone targets, but all of those passes yielded just two red zone touchdowns. (Bennett's ankle injury should not be a problem in two weeks). Olson was targeted 15 times in the red zone, Knox 12, and Hester 5. Despite getting shut out by the Packers, Knox is the best fantasy option among the receivers: a lot of offense flows through him, and his quick-strike capability gives you a shot at a 60-yard touchdown. Forte and Olsen are solid options at their positions, but remember that they (like the Falcons triplets) cannot help you this week.
The Saints Running Backs: Just when you think you have the Saints figured out, Pierre Thomas gets hurt again, Chris Ivory suffers an ankle injury and Reggie Bush wakes up for 70 yards on nine carries against the Buccaneers. The Saints should be a playoff fantasy treasure trove – a great offense that is all-but-certain to play at least two games – but their confusion at running back could cause a headache.
By now, you know that Bush only plays well when everyone has given up on him. He's still worth a look in deep leagues or PPR leagues, but don't waste a high pick or a lot of auction bucks on him. Thomas is expected back for the Seahawks game, and his Week 16 production – 19-63-1 on the ground, 7-39 as a receiver – suggests that he is a worthwhile second running back. Ivory is out and Julius Jones is still around to muck things up. Don't draft him.
The Seahawks: Mike Williams is a viable receiver to get you through this week. He has been targeted 16 times in the red zone this year, and with 100 total targets, he's the closest thing to a reliable weapon in the Seahawks' arsenal. He will also probably come far cheaper than Lance Moore or Derrick Mason, and you can use him as a fire-and-forget weapon while you wait for Roddy White or Mike Wallace to take the stage. Marshawn Lynch is now featured back in Seattle, with Justin Forsett in a reserve role, but "featured" is a relative term for a team that will probably be blown out on Saturday night. Lynch has not had a 100-yard game all season, and he regularly leads the Seahawks with just 10-14 carries per game. Lynch and Williams are more valuable in leagues that allow weekly re-drafts than in leagues that expect you to carry one roster through the postseason: if the Seahawks are still around by Sunday, I will eat my calculator.
Defenses and Tight Ends: The Packers and Jets will be the defenses of choice in most leagues, but make sure you know your scoring system. If sacks are worth a lot, the Packers make a great choice. If return touchdowns fetch a premium, look to the Bears (Hester), the Ravens (Ed Reed still looks to pitch and score every time he touches the ball) or even the Seahawks for a week (Leon Washington). The Jets recorded just 40 sacks and 17 interceptions this year: solid numbers, but their reputation outstrips their production, and Peyton Manning appears to have gotten past his interception jag.
Remember when the Saints had the most opportunistic defense in the NFL? Interception totals and defensive touchdowns vary widely from year to year, so their nine-interception performance this season wasn't really a surprise to people who study statistics. That being said, their defense enters the postseason undervalued: They are facing the Seahawks in the first round. They have recorded nearly as many sacks (33) as the Jets, Reggie Bush has been brutally bad on punt returns, which means he is suddenly going to break one. (That's not a statistically valid observation. It just always seems to happen).
As for tight ends, there's Olsen, Heap, Tony Gonzalez, Tony Moeaki, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, Brent Celek, Dustin Keller, Heath Miller, Jimmy Graham (if he's healthy) and Jacob Tamme. If you can't find a perfectly good tight end at the end of a draft/auction, you just aren't looking.
Signing Off: That's it for 'Going Deep' this season. It has been a blast, and I have loved the feedback you have given me. You can catch me throughout the playoffs breaking down play diagrams on NBCSports.com, talking stats and strategy at Football Outsiders, and previewing games at the Fifth Down Blog in the New York Times. We will meet again sometime in the offseason. Enjoy the playoffs, and good luck in your NCAA Tourney Pools, rotisserie baseball leagues, fantasy badminton, or whatever gets you through those long, football-free months!
Playoff fantasy pools: they are a great way to recoup some money, reclaim bragging rights, or just keep a Saturday night game interesting when the Saints are beating the Seahawks by 24 points at halftime.
There are hundreds of variations on the "playoff fantasy" format: auctions, weekly redrafts, single-elimination tournaments and so on. There's only one constant: just like in the regular season, you must draft good players who produce big numbers.
We wrap up this season's 'Going Deep' series with some no-nonsense advice about potential postseason fantasy stars: who is slumping, who could get lost in the shuffle, and who can help you keep the fun flowing into February.
The Falcons Triplets: No playoff team is as predictable or reliable as the Falcons. You know the ball will get funneled through three players: quarterback Matt Ryan, running back Michael Turner and receiver Roddy White. In a postseason full of running back committees and multi-receiver confusion, the Falcons offer safe harbor: they aren't suddenly going to start targeting Ellis Weems a dozen times in the red zone.
The Falcons throw an average of 11.2 passes per game to White, making him the best receiver in the fantasy playoff pool. Turner has had at least 15 carries every week except Week 2, when he was hurt early in the game. Keep in mind, though, that Turner has zero value as a receiver, with three catches for 12 yards in the last nine games. In a PPR league, Ray Rice or Shady McCoy is a much more appealing option than Turner.
Ryan may get overlooked in the rush to acquire Brady-Brees-Vick-Manning. He has thrown at least one touchdown in every game except the season opener and has had nine multi-touchdown games. You can pencil in a 22-of-36, 250 yard, two-touchdown performance almost every time he takes the field. Wait for Ryan to fall to you, and you can concentrate on getting the most from your backs and receivers.
The Ravens Passing Game: Anquan Boldin has been targeted just nine times in the last three weeks, catching just five passes for 26 yards. That's a mind-boggling slump – Jason Snelling has more than twice as many receiving yards as Boldin in the last three weeks – and it's a byproduct of the fact that the Ravens just aren't passing very much. Joe Flacco has thrown just 19.7 passes per game in the last three games, and most of those passes have been short dump-offs, not the usual bombs that drive the Ravens offense. John Harbaugh may keep things conservative against a Chiefs defense that allows opponents to complete just 54.9 percent of passes and has a pair of solid young cornerbacks.
The Ravens slump may be a boon to bargain hunters: Boldin, Derrick Mason and Todd Heap may slip through the cracks of a draft or auction. If you select one of them, you should balance your ticket with a high-target complementary receiver. Try to get Greg Jennings, Wes Welker or Jeremy Maclin to support Boldin or Mason, and you will have one receiver catching 6-7 passes while the Ravens wait for the bombs to start dropping again. <!--RW-->
The Bears Receivers: Five different Bears receivers caught between 40 and 51 passes this year, including running back Matt Forte and tight end Greg Olsen. No Bears receiver caught more than five touchdown passes. The democratic approach will drive you crazy in the playoffs: draft Devin Hester, and you can be certain Johnny Knox will catch two touchdown passes.
Knox led the Bears in targets this season, with 100 passes thrown his way; no one else had more than 73. More importantly, Earl Bennett led the team with 18 red zone targets, but all of those passes yielded just two red zone touchdowns. (Bennett's ankle injury should not be a problem in two weeks). Olson was targeted 15 times in the red zone, Knox 12, and Hester 5. Despite getting shut out by the Packers, Knox is the best fantasy option among the receivers: a lot of offense flows through him, and his quick-strike capability gives you a shot at a 60-yard touchdown. Forte and Olsen are solid options at their positions, but remember that they (like the Falcons triplets) cannot help you this week.
The Saints Running Backs: Just when you think you have the Saints figured out, Pierre Thomas gets hurt again, Chris Ivory suffers an ankle injury and Reggie Bush wakes up for 70 yards on nine carries against the Buccaneers. The Saints should be a playoff fantasy treasure trove – a great offense that is all-but-certain to play at least two games – but their confusion at running back could cause a headache.
By now, you know that Bush only plays well when everyone has given up on him. He's still worth a look in deep leagues or PPR leagues, but don't waste a high pick or a lot of auction bucks on him. Thomas is expected back for the Seahawks game, and his Week 16 production – 19-63-1 on the ground, 7-39 as a receiver – suggests that he is a worthwhile second running back. Ivory is out and Julius Jones is still around to muck things up. Don't draft him.
The Seahawks: Mike Williams is a viable receiver to get you through this week. He has been targeted 16 times in the red zone this year, and with 100 total targets, he's the closest thing to a reliable weapon in the Seahawks' arsenal. He will also probably come far cheaper than Lance Moore or Derrick Mason, and you can use him as a fire-and-forget weapon while you wait for Roddy White or Mike Wallace to take the stage. Marshawn Lynch is now featured back in Seattle, with Justin Forsett in a reserve role, but "featured" is a relative term for a team that will probably be blown out on Saturday night. Lynch has not had a 100-yard game all season, and he regularly leads the Seahawks with just 10-14 carries per game. Lynch and Williams are more valuable in leagues that allow weekly re-drafts than in leagues that expect you to carry one roster through the postseason: if the Seahawks are still around by Sunday, I will eat my calculator.
Defenses and Tight Ends: The Packers and Jets will be the defenses of choice in most leagues, but make sure you know your scoring system. If sacks are worth a lot, the Packers make a great choice. If return touchdowns fetch a premium, look to the Bears (Hester), the Ravens (Ed Reed still looks to pitch and score every time he touches the ball) or even the Seahawks for a week (Leon Washington). The Jets recorded just 40 sacks and 17 interceptions this year: solid numbers, but their reputation outstrips their production, and Peyton Manning appears to have gotten past his interception jag.
Remember when the Saints had the most opportunistic defense in the NFL? Interception totals and defensive touchdowns vary widely from year to year, so their nine-interception performance this season wasn't really a surprise to people who study statistics. That being said, their defense enters the postseason undervalued: They are facing the Seahawks in the first round. They have recorded nearly as many sacks (33) as the Jets, Reggie Bush has been brutally bad on punt returns, which means he is suddenly going to break one. (That's not a statistically valid observation. It just always seems to happen).
As for tight ends, there's Olsen, Heap, Tony Gonzalez, Tony Moeaki, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, Brent Celek, Dustin Keller, Heath Miller, Jimmy Graham (if he's healthy) and Jacob Tamme. If you can't find a perfectly good tight end at the end of a draft/auction, you just aren't looking.
Signing Off: That's it for 'Going Deep' this season. It has been a blast, and I have loved the feedback you have given me. You can catch me throughout the playoffs breaking down play diagrams on NBCSports.com, talking stats and strategy at Football Outsiders, and previewing games at the Fifth Down Blog in the New York Times. We will meet again sometime in the offseason. Enjoy the playoffs, and good luck in your NCAA Tourney Pools, rotisserie baseball leagues, fantasy badminton, or whatever gets you through those long, football-free months!
Matchups: Wild Card Round
These days, the Rotoworld news page is comprised mostly of coaching rumors, updates on potential free agents, injuries, and reserve/future signings. But there is still lots of America's Game to be played.
The 2011 playoffs kick off early Saturday evening, when the 7-9 fourth-seeded Seahawks host the 11-5 fifth-seeded Saints. Odd? For sure. But the rest of the weekend's games all involve point spreads of three or less. It's going to be an unforgettable round of wild-card football.
Let's take a look at the matchups, coaching comparisons, and possible x-factors, along with my predictions for each contest.
www.therx.ws
4:30 ET Saturday: Saints @ Seahawks
When the Saints Have the Ball
The Saints are a historically pass-first team under Sean Payton, and 2010 was no different. No NFC team racked up more regular season pass attempts, and New Orleans' 68.1 completion rate was easily a league high. With lead running backs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas done for the year, Payton will count even more heavily on Drew Brees' arm in the playoffs. A Pro Bowler for the third straight season, Brees will look to exploit a Seahawks defense highly susceptible to the deep ball. Seattle has surrendered the second most 20-plus yard completions and the third most passing touchdowns in football. While top receiver Marques Colston vows to play through a knee injury, Brees has more than capable alternatives in vertical threats Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, slot receiver Lance Moore, and Week 17 star Adrian Arrington.
New Orleans took a big hit when the rookie Ivory went on injured reserve Tuesday. Ivory led the Saints in regular season yards-per-carry average (5.23) and rushing touchdowns, and there's no viable replacement on the roster with Thomas joining Ivory on I.R. It's a good thing, then, that Payton is the best in the business at creating favorable matchups. When the Saints need chain-moving plays, look for perimeter tosses and screens to Reggie Bush, keeping the Seattle defense honest. Ultimately, though, there won't be balance on offense. Brees is going to have to air it out.
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
Update: Seahawks coach Pete Carroll announced Thursday afternoon that Matt Hasselbeck will start at quarterback. Hasselbeck accounted for 13 turnovers compared to five touchdowns in his final five regular season starts, and was knocked out of the fifth after four pass attempts due to a hip injury. He gives Seattle a slight chance to keep the weekend's first game more competitive.
With Matt Hasselbeck battling a strained hip, the Seahawks are leaving their starting quarterback to a game-day decision. Either way, they won't win if this one turns into a shootout. Hasselbeck and "backup" Charlie Whitehurst accounted for 25 turnovers in the regular season, compared to just 14 touchdown passes. The Saints, meanwhile, ranked fourth in the NFL in pass defense and allowed the fewest scoring passes in the league. Seattle's quarterback is going to have to be a game manager, taking few chances and hitting possession receiver Mike Williams for first downs.
While Seattle's defense tries to keep Brees off the field and the passing game avoid takeaways, the running game will have to step up in a major way. Starting tailback Marshawn Lynch was one of football's least productive per-play rushers during the regular season, averaging just 3.51 yards a carry after arriving in Seattle via trade from Buffalo. The Saints are very average in run defense, so this is one of the few areas the Seahawks could give them problems. But considering the way he's played to this point, Lynch will need his best game of the season to capitalize.
Coaches
The Saints have a clear advantage in the coaching department with returning Super Bowl-winner Sean Payton at the helm. The fifth-year coach enters his third postseason with a 4-1 playoff record and arguably the best game plans west of Belichick. An offensive mastermind, Payton has already beaten Seahawks coach Pete Carroll once this season -- by two touchdowns in Week 11.
Carroll is a defensive mind, although you wouldn't know it by his 27th-ranked defense. The former USC coach's last trip to the NFL playoffs came in 1998, when Carroll's Patriots lost in the first round to Tom Coughlin's Jaguars, 25-10. Carroll won his only postseason affair in 1997.
X-factors
Jimmy Graham
The Saints whipped Seattle 34-19 in Week 11, and four of New Orleans' touchdowns came off Drew Brees' hand. Saints tight ends combined for 110 yards on eight grabs, with Graham leading the way. A dominant rookie talent, Graham scored four times in the final three regular season games and should give aging strong safety Lawyer Milloy fits up the seam. Assuming he plays through a Week 17 ankle injury, Graham will also cause matchup problems in the red zone.
Justin Forsett
The Saints and Seahawks are a mismatch on paper, with New Orleans holding the clear upper hand in talent. Oddsmakers realize it, pegging the Saints as double-digit favorites. If the Saints jump out to an early lead and force Seattle to throw to keep up, passing-down back Justin Forsett will replace Marshawn Lynch in the Seahawks' base offense. Forsett isn't going to win the game for Seattle, but has racked up 74 receptions over the past two seasons and is a more explosive option than Lynch. Also averaging 4.92 yards per carry, Forsett can be dangerous on the edges.
Prediction: Saints 30, Seahawks 17
8:00 ET Saturday: Jets @ Colts
When the Jets Have the Ball
New York's bread and butter is the running game. The Jets boast the NFL's No. 4 rushing attack, keyed by a road-grating offensive line that greased the wheels for the second most regular season rushing attempts in football. Integral to the front five is the return of mauling right tackle Damien Woody from a three-week knee injury. The Jets need improved play from tailbacks LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, however, particularly against a Colts run defense that stiffened down the stretch. Usually friendly to opposing rushers, Indianapolis held Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, and Maurice Jones-Drew to a combined 2.83 yards-per-carry average and zero rushing touchdowns in the last three weeks. None of them topped 46 rushing yards.
The Jets' ground game sets up vertical shots from quarterback Mark Sanchez to deep threats Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards. Edwards is notoriously drop prone, but leads the Jets in yards-per-catch average (17.1), receiving TDs (7), and receptions of 20-plus yards (14). Holmes is a more complete receiver. Since the season's halfway point, the Super Bowl XLIII M.V.P. is averaging five catches for 70 yards per game with just one drop and six touchdowns. They will look to exploit a Colts secondary expected to be without top cornerback Kelvin Hayden (neck).
When the Colts Have the Ball
No team attempted more regular season passes than the Colts, and only the Patriots threw for more touchdowns. Realistically, it wasn't one of Peyton Manning's better years, but there's no question that Indianapolis' offensive mentality is pass happy. Jets coach Rex Ryan plans to shadow Colts top receiver Reggie Wayne with shutdown corner Darrelle Revis, a matchup Revis is used to winning. The two squared off for roughly seven quarters last season, and Wayne came away with 88 scoreless yards on six catches. Manning will have to lean on zone-busting tight end Jacob Tamme, fast-finishing deep threat Pierre Garcon, and rookie slot man Blair White.
The Colts only use the run game as a change of pace, but have received a late-season spark from December street free agent signee Dominic Rhodes. At least Rhodes wasn't sitting on the couch; the 31-year-old led the United Football League in rushing. Now in a rotation with starting tailback Joseph Addai, Rhodes paced Indy with a 4.65 yards-per-carry average in the final three games while also taking over on kick returns. The Jets had the NFL's third toughest run defense in the regular season, however, so yards on the ground will be hard to come by for the Colts.
Coaches
Garrulous Rex Ryan is in just his second season as Jets head coach, but showed in last year's playoffs an ability to maximize talent during a postseason run. Led by then-rookies Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene, Ryan's club outlasted the Bengals and Chargers before falling 30-17 to these same Colts in the AFC Championship game. The Jets held a 17-13 lead through two quarters of that one, so Ryan has hopefully improved his halftime speech in time for Saturday's showdown.
Like Ryan, Colts coach Jim Caldwell is a playoff veteran in only his second season on the job. Then the AFC's No. 1 seed, Caldwell's team defeated the Ravens and Jets by a combined score of 50-20 in last year's postseason, before a 31-17 Super Bowl loss to New Orleans. As was the case in Caldwell's last meeting with the Jets, Indianapolis has home field working in its favor.
X-factors
Dustin Keller
Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes rank 1-2 on the Jets in receiving yards. Third is tight end Dustin Keller, who does the dirty work underneath. Though his production has been lackluster since Holmes returned from a four-game suspension to open the season, Keller paced the team in pass targets, receptions, and receiving yards in Week 16, before the Jets rested starters in the regular season finale. Mark Sanchez is playing through torn cartilage in his throwing shoulder, which may force offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to gear his game plan toward short passes over the middle. The Colts are also getting torched by tight ends, allowing five touchdowns and an average of over seven receptions per game to position since Week 12.
Blair White
With Darrelle Revis making Reggie Wayne a non-factor in last season's AFC title game, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stepped up for a whopping 18 catches, 274 yards, and two touchdowns combined in the Colts' victory. The Jets have solidified the cornerback spot opposite Garcon with Antonio Cromartie, but remain vulnerable to slot receivers -- rookie Blair White's position with Collie on injured reserve. White has had an up-and-down year, but gets the opportunity for a big game Saturday night. New York has struggled against inside receivers Wes Welker, Davone Bess, Nate Burleson, Percy Harvin, and even Bills undrafted rookie David Nelson this season.
Prediction: Colts 24, Jets 20
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1:00 ET Sunday: Ravens @ Chiefs
When the Ravens Have the Ball
The Ravens' offense struggled mightily in the final six weeks, falling from 12th in the NFL to 22nd in total yards. Baltimore has the lowest rated offense among all six AFC playoff teams, with rumors swirling that quarterback Joe Flacco and coordinator Cam Cameron have butted heads. The Chiefs are stout on defense, so Cameron will need some magic for a turnaround. One place to start might be with the running game, as Kansas City allowed 209 rushing yards and two touchdowns to the Darren McFadden-less Raiders in Week 17. Tailback Ray Rice is the Ravens' top offensive player, so he makes sense as the focus of Cameron's game plan Sunday afternoon.
More reason to be concerned about Baltimore's passing attack is left tackle Michael Oher's knee sprain. Suffered in Week 17, the ailment caused Oher to limp noticeably off the field and has him on this week's injury report. Oher faces off with AFC sack leader Tamba Hali, so Cameron won't want Flacco dropping back much if he can help it. Ideally, an effective Rice would help set up the occasional deep shot off play-action, but the Ravens can't afford frequent third-and-longs that put their quarterback at risk with banged-up blind-side protection. Anquan Boldin's maddening late-season slump hurts matters further. Boldin is no longer capable of beating double coverage.
When the Chiefs Have the Ball
The Ravens wish they had a productive running game. The Chiefs just do. Ranked first in the NFL in rushing, Kansas City's offense is spearheaded by first-time Pro Bowler Jamaal Charles. A scintillating, big-play specialist who can't be caught in the open field, Charles led all running backs with a 6.38 regular season yards-per-carry average and totaled 100 yards in 13-of-16 games. Only Houston's Arian Foster racked up more rushing yards, and Charles had 104 fewer carries than third-place finisher Michael Turner. An unstoppable force meets an immovable object when Charles and change-up back Thomas Jones square off with Baltimore's top-five run defense. The Ravens are tied with the Steelers for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed in the league (5).
Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel made a significant leap this regular season, improving his touchdown-to-interception ratio from 16:16 in 2009 to 27:7, and tacking a full yard onto his yards-per-attempt average. It's fair to wonder, however, if the impending exit of coordinator Charlie Weis is already adversely affecting the offense. News of Weis' departure to the University of Florida broke last Friday, and Cassel proceeded to have his worst game of the year, completing just 11-of-33 passes for 115 yards and two interceptions. The Cassel-to-Dwayne Bowe connection has been among the most dangerous in football, but Cassel's pass protection collapsed in Week 17, and he won't be hitting Bowe on any bombs without time to throw.
Coaches
Chiefs coach Todd Haley rebounded from a dismal first season to win the AFC West and give Kansas City its first winning team since Dick Vermeil. Haley has no postseason head-coaching experience, but was on playoff staffs with the 2006 Cowboys and 2008 Cardinals. He's also surrounded himself with perhaps the NFL's best two coordinators in Weis and Romeo Crennel.
His brother is a hotter name right now, but Ravens coach John Harbaugh has directed Baltimore to the playoffs in each of his three seasons on the job. The former special teams maven made it to the AFC title game two years ago, and didn't lose in the first round in either of his first two trips.
X-factors
Dexter McCluster
McCluster rarely plays offense (just 21 carries and 18 catches), but has flashed electrifying ability on returns. Among qualifying punt returners, only Devin Hester had a better regular season yards-per-return average, and McCluster also brought one back 94 yards to the house. If the Ravens' run defense shuts down Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and Matt Cassel plays like he did in Week 17, Kansas City will need to win the special teams battle to stay in Sunday's game.
Todd Heap
Heap was enjoying one of his better seasons before a Week 12 hamstring strain shelved him for a month. He returned in Week 17 and caught three passes for 53 yards, afterwards confirming that he's back to 100 percent. Heap is also used plenty as a pass blocker, so he could be the needed source of "help" blocks for injured left tackle Michael Oher to keep Joe Flacco upright.
Prediction: Ravens 17, Chiefs 13
4:30 ET Sunday: Eagles @ Packers
When the Packers Have the Ball
Packers coach Mike McCarthy would've preferred a more balanced offense this season, but a year-ending injury to tailback Ryan Grant in Week 1 changed plans. Ranked 24th in rushing offense, the Packers generate consistent ball movement only when they're throwing the ball. At the controls is quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who accounted for a 32:12 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in the regular season and impressively ranked third among quarterbacks in rushing yards. His go-to guy is deep threat Greg Jennings, who finished fourth in the NFL in receiving yards and third in 20-plus yard receptions. Aging slot receiver Donald Driver, improving James Jones and Jordy Nelson, and rookie tight end Andrew Quarless round out a solid pass-catching corps.
Minus Grant, Green Bay has turned to a three-man backfield committee. Rookie James Starks is the group's best inside runner, but offers nothing in the passing game and makes the offense predictable when he's on the field. Brandon Jackson led the Pack in regular season rushing, but averaged just 3.70 yards per carry and is stretched as more than a third-down back. Bulldozing fullback John Kuhn is Green Bay's short-yardage specialist and occasional late-game clock killer.
When the Eagles Have the Ball
Philadelphia fielded the most explosive offense in the league during dual-threat quarterback Michael Vick's 12 appearances, but injuries cost the M.V.P. candidate three games and parts of others. Vick's latest malady was a quadricep strain that hindered him in a Week 16 loss to Minnesota and sidelined him for all of the regular season finale. Vick will start Sunday, and now claims to be "90 percent." The Eagles need at least that, because Vick can be more of a drag on the offense than his usual play-making self if he's not healthy. Vick's receiver corps is headlined by game-breaker DeSean Jackson, who led the NFL in regular season yards-per-catch average (22.5) and doubles as an All-Pro caliber punt returner. Jeremy Maclin is also a big-play threat, as well as Vick's top red-zone target. Slot man Jason Avant and tight end Brent Celek are the possession receivers.
The Eagles' biggest Pro Bowl snub was running back LeSean McCoy, who should've made it over Steven Jackson. Averaging a six-yard gain whenever he touches the ball, McCoy led all NFL backs in receptions and at just 22 years old arguably has an even better career trajectory than predecessor Brian Westbrook. The Packers rank 18th against the run and fifth against the pass, so with Vick potentially hobbled, McCoy might be the Eagles' best bet for a big game.
Coaches
Packers coach Mike McCarthy has three playoff trips in four years, although he's only once made it past the first round. In last season's wild-card game, Green Bay fell behind Arizona 17-0 in the first quarter and needed a mammoth comeback just to lose 51-45. This year's Eagles are more dangerous than last year's Cardinals, so McCarthy needs to make sure a repeat isn't in order.
Oft-criticized in Philly for his inability to win The Big One, Eagles coach Andy Reid enters his ninth postseason with a 10-8 playoff record. Just once in his previous eight playoff berths has Reid not advanced to the second round. He gets the clear edge over McCarthy if we're comparing the two.
X-factors
James Jones
Jones is in the final year of his contract and has obvious starting-caliber tools, so he'll be looking to finish fast after a one-catch, eight-yard performance in Week 17. With 35-year-old Donald Driver in decline, Jones' snap count has increased this season en route to career highs in catches (50), yards (679), and touchdowns (5). Matched up with Philadelphia's smallish defensive backs, the physical 6'1", 220-pound Jones will be tough to bring down if he gets loose in the open field.
Kevin Kolb
Despite Michael Vick's professed return to health after a Week 16 quadricep injury, reports out of Philadelphia have indicated that Vick may be on a short leash if he isn't in top form early. Backup Kevin Kolb is a favorite of personnel evaluators around the NFL, and would get the nod if Vick aggravates his injury or is yanked for ineffectiveness. The Eagles' alleged franchise quarterback entering 2010, Kolb appeared in eight games and completed over 60 percent of his passes with a 7:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Kolb, however, was at his worst when playing off the bench.
Prediction: Packers 27, Eagles 20
These days, the Rotoworld news page is comprised mostly of coaching rumors, updates on potential free agents, injuries, and reserve/future signings. But there is still lots of America's Game to be played.
The 2011 playoffs kick off early Saturday evening, when the 7-9 fourth-seeded Seahawks host the 11-5 fifth-seeded Saints. Odd? For sure. But the rest of the weekend's games all involve point spreads of three or less. It's going to be an unforgettable round of wild-card football.
Let's take a look at the matchups, coaching comparisons, and possible x-factors, along with my predictions for each contest.
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4:30 ET Saturday: Saints @ Seahawks
When the Saints Have the Ball
The Saints are a historically pass-first team under Sean Payton, and 2010 was no different. No NFC team racked up more regular season pass attempts, and New Orleans' 68.1 completion rate was easily a league high. With lead running backs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas done for the year, Payton will count even more heavily on Drew Brees' arm in the playoffs. A Pro Bowler for the third straight season, Brees will look to exploit a Seahawks defense highly susceptible to the deep ball. Seattle has surrendered the second most 20-plus yard completions and the third most passing touchdowns in football. While top receiver Marques Colston vows to play through a knee injury, Brees has more than capable alternatives in vertical threats Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, slot receiver Lance Moore, and Week 17 star Adrian Arrington.
New Orleans took a big hit when the rookie Ivory went on injured reserve Tuesday. Ivory led the Saints in regular season yards-per-carry average (5.23) and rushing touchdowns, and there's no viable replacement on the roster with Thomas joining Ivory on I.R. It's a good thing, then, that Payton is the best in the business at creating favorable matchups. When the Saints need chain-moving plays, look for perimeter tosses and screens to Reggie Bush, keeping the Seattle defense honest. Ultimately, though, there won't be balance on offense. Brees is going to have to air it out.
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
Update: Seahawks coach Pete Carroll announced Thursday afternoon that Matt Hasselbeck will start at quarterback. Hasselbeck accounted for 13 turnovers compared to five touchdowns in his final five regular season starts, and was knocked out of the fifth after four pass attempts due to a hip injury. He gives Seattle a slight chance to keep the weekend's first game more competitive.
With Matt Hasselbeck battling a strained hip, the Seahawks are leaving their starting quarterback to a game-day decision. Either way, they won't win if this one turns into a shootout. Hasselbeck and "backup" Charlie Whitehurst accounted for 25 turnovers in the regular season, compared to just 14 touchdown passes. The Saints, meanwhile, ranked fourth in the NFL in pass defense and allowed the fewest scoring passes in the league. Seattle's quarterback is going to have to be a game manager, taking few chances and hitting possession receiver Mike Williams for first downs.
While Seattle's defense tries to keep Brees off the field and the passing game avoid takeaways, the running game will have to step up in a major way. Starting tailback Marshawn Lynch was one of football's least productive per-play rushers during the regular season, averaging just 3.51 yards a carry after arriving in Seattle via trade from Buffalo. The Saints are very average in run defense, so this is one of the few areas the Seahawks could give them problems. But considering the way he's played to this point, Lynch will need his best game of the season to capitalize.
Coaches
The Saints have a clear advantage in the coaching department with returning Super Bowl-winner Sean Payton at the helm. The fifth-year coach enters his third postseason with a 4-1 playoff record and arguably the best game plans west of Belichick. An offensive mastermind, Payton has already beaten Seahawks coach Pete Carroll once this season -- by two touchdowns in Week 11.
Carroll is a defensive mind, although you wouldn't know it by his 27th-ranked defense. The former USC coach's last trip to the NFL playoffs came in 1998, when Carroll's Patriots lost in the first round to Tom Coughlin's Jaguars, 25-10. Carroll won his only postseason affair in 1997.
X-factors
Jimmy Graham
The Saints whipped Seattle 34-19 in Week 11, and four of New Orleans' touchdowns came off Drew Brees' hand. Saints tight ends combined for 110 yards on eight grabs, with Graham leading the way. A dominant rookie talent, Graham scored four times in the final three regular season games and should give aging strong safety Lawyer Milloy fits up the seam. Assuming he plays through a Week 17 ankle injury, Graham will also cause matchup problems in the red zone.
Justin Forsett
The Saints and Seahawks are a mismatch on paper, with New Orleans holding the clear upper hand in talent. Oddsmakers realize it, pegging the Saints as double-digit favorites. If the Saints jump out to an early lead and force Seattle to throw to keep up, passing-down back Justin Forsett will replace Marshawn Lynch in the Seahawks' base offense. Forsett isn't going to win the game for Seattle, but has racked up 74 receptions over the past two seasons and is a more explosive option than Lynch. Also averaging 4.92 yards per carry, Forsett can be dangerous on the edges.
Prediction: Saints 30, Seahawks 17
8:00 ET Saturday: Jets @ Colts
When the Jets Have the Ball
New York's bread and butter is the running game. The Jets boast the NFL's No. 4 rushing attack, keyed by a road-grating offensive line that greased the wheels for the second most regular season rushing attempts in football. Integral to the front five is the return of mauling right tackle Damien Woody from a three-week knee injury. The Jets need improved play from tailbacks LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, however, particularly against a Colts run defense that stiffened down the stretch. Usually friendly to opposing rushers, Indianapolis held Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, and Maurice Jones-Drew to a combined 2.83 yards-per-carry average and zero rushing touchdowns in the last three weeks. None of them topped 46 rushing yards.
The Jets' ground game sets up vertical shots from quarterback Mark Sanchez to deep threats Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards. Edwards is notoriously drop prone, but leads the Jets in yards-per-catch average (17.1), receiving TDs (7), and receptions of 20-plus yards (14). Holmes is a more complete receiver. Since the season's halfway point, the Super Bowl XLIII M.V.P. is averaging five catches for 70 yards per game with just one drop and six touchdowns. They will look to exploit a Colts secondary expected to be without top cornerback Kelvin Hayden (neck).
When the Colts Have the Ball
No team attempted more regular season passes than the Colts, and only the Patriots threw for more touchdowns. Realistically, it wasn't one of Peyton Manning's better years, but there's no question that Indianapolis' offensive mentality is pass happy. Jets coach Rex Ryan plans to shadow Colts top receiver Reggie Wayne with shutdown corner Darrelle Revis, a matchup Revis is used to winning. The two squared off for roughly seven quarters last season, and Wayne came away with 88 scoreless yards on six catches. Manning will have to lean on zone-busting tight end Jacob Tamme, fast-finishing deep threat Pierre Garcon, and rookie slot man Blair White.
The Colts only use the run game as a change of pace, but have received a late-season spark from December street free agent signee Dominic Rhodes. At least Rhodes wasn't sitting on the couch; the 31-year-old led the United Football League in rushing. Now in a rotation with starting tailback Joseph Addai, Rhodes paced Indy with a 4.65 yards-per-carry average in the final three games while also taking over on kick returns. The Jets had the NFL's third toughest run defense in the regular season, however, so yards on the ground will be hard to come by for the Colts.
Coaches
Garrulous Rex Ryan is in just his second season as Jets head coach, but showed in last year's playoffs an ability to maximize talent during a postseason run. Led by then-rookies Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene, Ryan's club outlasted the Bengals and Chargers before falling 30-17 to these same Colts in the AFC Championship game. The Jets held a 17-13 lead through two quarters of that one, so Ryan has hopefully improved his halftime speech in time for Saturday's showdown.
Like Ryan, Colts coach Jim Caldwell is a playoff veteran in only his second season on the job. Then the AFC's No. 1 seed, Caldwell's team defeated the Ravens and Jets by a combined score of 50-20 in last year's postseason, before a 31-17 Super Bowl loss to New Orleans. As was the case in Caldwell's last meeting with the Jets, Indianapolis has home field working in its favor.
X-factors
Dustin Keller
Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes rank 1-2 on the Jets in receiving yards. Third is tight end Dustin Keller, who does the dirty work underneath. Though his production has been lackluster since Holmes returned from a four-game suspension to open the season, Keller paced the team in pass targets, receptions, and receiving yards in Week 16, before the Jets rested starters in the regular season finale. Mark Sanchez is playing through torn cartilage in his throwing shoulder, which may force offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to gear his game plan toward short passes over the middle. The Colts are also getting torched by tight ends, allowing five touchdowns and an average of over seven receptions per game to position since Week 12.
Blair White
With Darrelle Revis making Reggie Wayne a non-factor in last season's AFC title game, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stepped up for a whopping 18 catches, 274 yards, and two touchdowns combined in the Colts' victory. The Jets have solidified the cornerback spot opposite Garcon with Antonio Cromartie, but remain vulnerable to slot receivers -- rookie Blair White's position with Collie on injured reserve. White has had an up-and-down year, but gets the opportunity for a big game Saturday night. New York has struggled against inside receivers Wes Welker, Davone Bess, Nate Burleson, Percy Harvin, and even Bills undrafted rookie David Nelson this season.
Prediction: Colts 24, Jets 20
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1:00 ET Sunday: Ravens @ Chiefs
When the Ravens Have the Ball
The Ravens' offense struggled mightily in the final six weeks, falling from 12th in the NFL to 22nd in total yards. Baltimore has the lowest rated offense among all six AFC playoff teams, with rumors swirling that quarterback Joe Flacco and coordinator Cam Cameron have butted heads. The Chiefs are stout on defense, so Cameron will need some magic for a turnaround. One place to start might be with the running game, as Kansas City allowed 209 rushing yards and two touchdowns to the Darren McFadden-less Raiders in Week 17. Tailback Ray Rice is the Ravens' top offensive player, so he makes sense as the focus of Cameron's game plan Sunday afternoon.
More reason to be concerned about Baltimore's passing attack is left tackle Michael Oher's knee sprain. Suffered in Week 17, the ailment caused Oher to limp noticeably off the field and has him on this week's injury report. Oher faces off with AFC sack leader Tamba Hali, so Cameron won't want Flacco dropping back much if he can help it. Ideally, an effective Rice would help set up the occasional deep shot off play-action, but the Ravens can't afford frequent third-and-longs that put their quarterback at risk with banged-up blind-side protection. Anquan Boldin's maddening late-season slump hurts matters further. Boldin is no longer capable of beating double coverage.
When the Chiefs Have the Ball
The Ravens wish they had a productive running game. The Chiefs just do. Ranked first in the NFL in rushing, Kansas City's offense is spearheaded by first-time Pro Bowler Jamaal Charles. A scintillating, big-play specialist who can't be caught in the open field, Charles led all running backs with a 6.38 regular season yards-per-carry average and totaled 100 yards in 13-of-16 games. Only Houston's Arian Foster racked up more rushing yards, and Charles had 104 fewer carries than third-place finisher Michael Turner. An unstoppable force meets an immovable object when Charles and change-up back Thomas Jones square off with Baltimore's top-five run defense. The Ravens are tied with the Steelers for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed in the league (5).
Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel made a significant leap this regular season, improving his touchdown-to-interception ratio from 16:16 in 2009 to 27:7, and tacking a full yard onto his yards-per-attempt average. It's fair to wonder, however, if the impending exit of coordinator Charlie Weis is already adversely affecting the offense. News of Weis' departure to the University of Florida broke last Friday, and Cassel proceeded to have his worst game of the year, completing just 11-of-33 passes for 115 yards and two interceptions. The Cassel-to-Dwayne Bowe connection has been among the most dangerous in football, but Cassel's pass protection collapsed in Week 17, and he won't be hitting Bowe on any bombs without time to throw.
Coaches
Chiefs coach Todd Haley rebounded from a dismal first season to win the AFC West and give Kansas City its first winning team since Dick Vermeil. Haley has no postseason head-coaching experience, but was on playoff staffs with the 2006 Cowboys and 2008 Cardinals. He's also surrounded himself with perhaps the NFL's best two coordinators in Weis and Romeo Crennel.
His brother is a hotter name right now, but Ravens coach John Harbaugh has directed Baltimore to the playoffs in each of his three seasons on the job. The former special teams maven made it to the AFC title game two years ago, and didn't lose in the first round in either of his first two trips.
X-factors
Dexter McCluster
McCluster rarely plays offense (just 21 carries and 18 catches), but has flashed electrifying ability on returns. Among qualifying punt returners, only Devin Hester had a better regular season yards-per-return average, and McCluster also brought one back 94 yards to the house. If the Ravens' run defense shuts down Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and Matt Cassel plays like he did in Week 17, Kansas City will need to win the special teams battle to stay in Sunday's game.
Todd Heap
Heap was enjoying one of his better seasons before a Week 12 hamstring strain shelved him for a month. He returned in Week 17 and caught three passes for 53 yards, afterwards confirming that he's back to 100 percent. Heap is also used plenty as a pass blocker, so he could be the needed source of "help" blocks for injured left tackle Michael Oher to keep Joe Flacco upright.
Prediction: Ravens 17, Chiefs 13
4:30 ET Sunday: Eagles @ Packers
When the Packers Have the Ball
Packers coach Mike McCarthy would've preferred a more balanced offense this season, but a year-ending injury to tailback Ryan Grant in Week 1 changed plans. Ranked 24th in rushing offense, the Packers generate consistent ball movement only when they're throwing the ball. At the controls is quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who accounted for a 32:12 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in the regular season and impressively ranked third among quarterbacks in rushing yards. His go-to guy is deep threat Greg Jennings, who finished fourth in the NFL in receiving yards and third in 20-plus yard receptions. Aging slot receiver Donald Driver, improving James Jones and Jordy Nelson, and rookie tight end Andrew Quarless round out a solid pass-catching corps.
Minus Grant, Green Bay has turned to a three-man backfield committee. Rookie James Starks is the group's best inside runner, but offers nothing in the passing game and makes the offense predictable when he's on the field. Brandon Jackson led the Pack in regular season rushing, but averaged just 3.70 yards per carry and is stretched as more than a third-down back. Bulldozing fullback John Kuhn is Green Bay's short-yardage specialist and occasional late-game clock killer.
When the Eagles Have the Ball
Philadelphia fielded the most explosive offense in the league during dual-threat quarterback Michael Vick's 12 appearances, but injuries cost the M.V.P. candidate three games and parts of others. Vick's latest malady was a quadricep strain that hindered him in a Week 16 loss to Minnesota and sidelined him for all of the regular season finale. Vick will start Sunday, and now claims to be "90 percent." The Eagles need at least that, because Vick can be more of a drag on the offense than his usual play-making self if he's not healthy. Vick's receiver corps is headlined by game-breaker DeSean Jackson, who led the NFL in regular season yards-per-catch average (22.5) and doubles as an All-Pro caliber punt returner. Jeremy Maclin is also a big-play threat, as well as Vick's top red-zone target. Slot man Jason Avant and tight end Brent Celek are the possession receivers.
The Eagles' biggest Pro Bowl snub was running back LeSean McCoy, who should've made it over Steven Jackson. Averaging a six-yard gain whenever he touches the ball, McCoy led all NFL backs in receptions and at just 22 years old arguably has an even better career trajectory than predecessor Brian Westbrook. The Packers rank 18th against the run and fifth against the pass, so with Vick potentially hobbled, McCoy might be the Eagles' best bet for a big game.
Coaches
Packers coach Mike McCarthy has three playoff trips in four years, although he's only once made it past the first round. In last season's wild-card game, Green Bay fell behind Arizona 17-0 in the first quarter and needed a mammoth comeback just to lose 51-45. This year's Eagles are more dangerous than last year's Cardinals, so McCarthy needs to make sure a repeat isn't in order.
Oft-criticized in Philly for his inability to win The Big One, Eagles coach Andy Reid enters his ninth postseason with a 10-8 playoff record. Just once in his previous eight playoff berths has Reid not advanced to the second round. He gets the clear edge over McCarthy if we're comparing the two.
X-factors
James Jones
Jones is in the final year of his contract and has obvious starting-caliber tools, so he'll be looking to finish fast after a one-catch, eight-yard performance in Week 17. With 35-year-old Donald Driver in decline, Jones' snap count has increased this season en route to career highs in catches (50), yards (679), and touchdowns (5). Matched up with Philadelphia's smallish defensive backs, the physical 6'1", 220-pound Jones will be tough to bring down if he gets loose in the open field.
Kevin Kolb
Despite Michael Vick's professed return to health after a Week 16 quadricep injury, reports out of Philadelphia have indicated that Vick may be on a short leash if he isn't in top form early. Backup Kevin Kolb is a favorite of personnel evaluators around the NFL, and would get the nod if Vick aggravates his injury or is yanked for ineffectiveness. The Eagles' alleged franchise quarterback entering 2010, Kolb appeared in eight games and completed over 60 percent of his passes with a 7:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Kolb, however, was at his worst when playing off the bench.
Prediction: Packers 27, Eagles 20
Vick up against the odds again
We already take Michael Vick's comeback for granted. We forget how implausible it would have sounded just four months ago. It took just one play to change expectations.
Vick replaced an injured Kevin Kolb at halftime of the team's season opener against the Packers. On the first play after intermission, Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji stormed through Philly's line virtually untouched. (This would become a season-long trend.) The play looked busted.
Vick quickly side-stepped Raji, out-raced linebacker Brad Jones to the sideline, cut inside to avoid safety Nick Collins, and sprinted back outside to avoid linebacker Clay Matthews for a 23-yard gain. The Packers didn't know what hit them.
Back then, we thought Vick was a shell of his former Atlanta self. He looked to be in better shape than 2009, but he wasn't seen as a true threat to Kolb's job at the time.
"Let's see how Vick can throw the football," FOX analyst Troy Aikman said when Vick came in.
What followed was a precise passing display that surprised even Vick's biggest supporters. He delivered with pressure in his face and into small windows. Trailing 13-3 at halftime, Vick came up one drive short on his comeback bid that day.
Vick finished with 100 yards rushing and over seven yards per passing attempt. By the end of the game, Aikman's tune had changed.
"It looks like the three time Pro Bowler from Atlanta!" Aikman exclaimed.
---
Vick came so far, so fast in 2010 that we now expect him to dazzle us weekly. We expect a show and feel cheated when he's ordinary. That's why Vick's disastrous Week 16 against the Vikings was so jarring.
The Eagles lost their chance at a playoff bye against Minnesota. Vick was hurt and it appeared the Eagles had no answer for the Vikings' blitz packages. It's become clearer how many obstacles stand in Vick's way of finishing this comeback season in grand style – Dallas.
Blitzed to submission
The slide of the Eagles offense really started in Week 14 against the Cowboys. We were just too blinded by Philadelphia's big score in Dallas and subsequent fourth quarter miracle comeback against the Giants to notice.
Teams started approaching Vick differently. Sal Paolantonio of ESPN reported on Sportscenter that opponent's blitzed 32.8% of the time before the Dallas game, with a defensive back rushing 17.1% of the time.
In Vick's last three games (Cowboys, Giants, Vikings), opponents blitzed 50% of the time, sending a defensive back 33.6% of the time. The defenses barely disguised the pressure and it worked.
Vick was hit often in all three games. He was held to 16 yards rushing against Dallas – a season low. The Giants held Vick to 70 yards passing in the first three quarters with constant defensive back pressure. Vick was hit on the first play of the game – a blitz. He was pressured and threw an interception on the next play.
On the Giants' first nine blitzes, Vick's best play was a five-yard completion. He was limping at one point, but finally beat the pressure in the fourth quarter by making the Giants' defensive backs whiff.
One of Vick's many amazing skills is that he never seems to tire. Vick beat the Giants with his feet in the fourth quarter after getting hammered all afternoon. No other player could have pulled off that comeback.
There was no miracle in the Vikings loss. Hit again on the first play of the game, Vick was hobbled throughout with a quadriceps injury. He was sacked six times and turned the ball over twice.
Opponents forced Vick into nine turnovers in the final five games, fifth most in the league. He also had six fumbles recovered by the Eagles. Still the most explosive player in the league, Vick was forced into making more mistakes.
Eagles line woes
Vick's mistakes increased largely because of the mistakes made by his linemen. Don't let left tackle Jason Peters' Pro Bowl appearance fool you. This is not a great Philly offensive line, especially in the middle. The first play I wrote about above was instructive. The Eagles struggled to contain Packers B.J. Raji, and the second-year player has only improved since.
Clay Matthews terrorized the Eagles in the opener, and the Packers hope to have their best lineman Cullen Jenkins back on Sunday. The Eagles linemen end up on the ground way too often. It's not all about recognition. The Cowboys also took them apart and the group appears to lack cohesion, and communication.
"I think it's important starting with me that we're all aware of it and it's a team effort," coach Andy Reid said Wednesday. "It's an offensive effort to make sure that everybody's on the same page and we're rolling there."
The Young Guns
Philadelphia's exciting youth on offense is a blessing, and it could also be a curse in the playoffs. The team's young core of skill players need to do their part to combat quick pressure. Wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin often can't beat press coverage to become available to Vick quickly. Jackson needs to recognize where the blitz is coming from and run precise routes.
The Eagles are the best quick strike offense in the league. They aren't great at long, slow touchdown marches. This is a week where Jackson, Maclin, and running back LeSean McCoy all have to be on the same page as Vick because the Packers will throw a lot at them.
This could be the most talented young core of skill position players in the league. The Packers still have better continuity and chemistry. Aaron Rodgers throws with Greg Jennings and his other receivers beginning in March every year. They have grown up in the same system, along with wideouts Jordy Nelson and James Jones. (Donald Driver predates the system.)
Maclin, McCoy, and wideout Riley Cooper don't have much experience in big games with Vick. Freelancing will be difficult to do against the Packers.
A Nightmare Matchup
The Eagles did not want to see the Packers. It's not just because Aaron Rodgers can expose Philadelphia's thin secondary or because the Packers wideouts can take advantage of the Philadelphia's poor tackling. Green Bay's defense can win a game on its own.
The Giants approach worked for three and a half quarters because of their cornerbacks. Corey Webster and Terrell Thomas are both physical players that mostly smothered Jackson and Maclin in single coverage. That freed up safeties to blitz Vick.
There isn't a better duo of physical cornerbacks in the league than Green Bay's Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams. They can build on New York's approach with one decided advantage: Woodson is the most versatile cornerback in football.
A lot of New York's problems came from missed tackles from safeties Deon Grant and Kenny Phillips. Woodson isn't going to miss those plays when he is in position. With plenty of time to prepare, Vick says they will be ready.
"If we see the same things, and I'm almost 100 percent sure that we'll get the type of looks - they might not be the exact same - but in some way, shape or form, it'll be similar," Vick said this week. "So, we just have to be ready for it and I think we've learned a lot from watching that film."
Packers veteran defensive coordinator Dom Capers will show things Vick hasn't seen. Capers has seen it all and knows better than to exactly duplicate what the Giants and Vikings did.
In the first matchup, Vick was sacked by linebacker Frank Zombo when he didn't recognize who was coming off the edge. Matthews made a huge sack on the game's final drive on a terrific individual play. Matthews plastered Vick another time.
By late in the fourth quarter of the opener, Green Bay's pressures started to get home. Capers and the Packers won't be preparing for Kevin Kolb this time. They know what they are getting.
A "Nightmare" for Both Sides
Those are some of the obstacles Vick faces. It makes it sound like the Eagles are a heavy underdog, which is hardly the case. That's the magic of Vick, the ultimate equalizer. After the first Packers-Eagles game, Packers cornerback Tramon Williams said Vick forced the team to throw out their game-plan.
Defensive tackle Ryan Pickett was asked this week by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel where Vick ranked on the team's "to-do list" this week.
"He is the to-do list," Pickett said.
This game remains a toss-up because Vick breaks all the normal rules. He rushed for nine touchdowns in 12 games; the entire Packers team rushed for 11 all season. Vick easily averaged more rushing yards per-game than any Packers running back. When throwing the ball, Vick ranked in the top five overall in yards per attempt and quarterback rating.
It doesn't get any better for a Wild Card Weekend game. We get to watch two of the best five quarterbacks in the league with supporting casts talented enough to win it all.
Logic points to the Packers, who are peaking at the right time. They have fewer mountains to climb. Logic also said Kevin Kolb would be Philadelphia's quarterback this season and that Vick would never regain the skills he had in Atlanta.
Michael Vick's game has never been about logic.
We already take Michael Vick's comeback for granted. We forget how implausible it would have sounded just four months ago. It took just one play to change expectations.
Vick replaced an injured Kevin Kolb at halftime of the team's season opener against the Packers. On the first play after intermission, Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji stormed through Philly's line virtually untouched. (This would become a season-long trend.) The play looked busted.
Vick quickly side-stepped Raji, out-raced linebacker Brad Jones to the sideline, cut inside to avoid safety Nick Collins, and sprinted back outside to avoid linebacker Clay Matthews for a 23-yard gain. The Packers didn't know what hit them.
Back then, we thought Vick was a shell of his former Atlanta self. He looked to be in better shape than 2009, but he wasn't seen as a true threat to Kolb's job at the time.
"Let's see how Vick can throw the football," FOX analyst Troy Aikman said when Vick came in.
What followed was a precise passing display that surprised even Vick's biggest supporters. He delivered with pressure in his face and into small windows. Trailing 13-3 at halftime, Vick came up one drive short on his comeback bid that day.
Vick finished with 100 yards rushing and over seven yards per passing attempt. By the end of the game, Aikman's tune had changed.
"It looks like the three time Pro Bowler from Atlanta!" Aikman exclaimed.
---
Vick came so far, so fast in 2010 that we now expect him to dazzle us weekly. We expect a show and feel cheated when he's ordinary. That's why Vick's disastrous Week 16 against the Vikings was so jarring.
The Eagles lost their chance at a playoff bye against Minnesota. Vick was hurt and it appeared the Eagles had no answer for the Vikings' blitz packages. It's become clearer how many obstacles stand in Vick's way of finishing this comeback season in grand style – Dallas.
Blitzed to submission
The slide of the Eagles offense really started in Week 14 against the Cowboys. We were just too blinded by Philadelphia's big score in Dallas and subsequent fourth quarter miracle comeback against the Giants to notice.
Teams started approaching Vick differently. Sal Paolantonio of ESPN reported on Sportscenter that opponent's blitzed 32.8% of the time before the Dallas game, with a defensive back rushing 17.1% of the time.
In Vick's last three games (Cowboys, Giants, Vikings), opponents blitzed 50% of the time, sending a defensive back 33.6% of the time. The defenses barely disguised the pressure and it worked.
Vick was hit often in all three games. He was held to 16 yards rushing against Dallas – a season low. The Giants held Vick to 70 yards passing in the first three quarters with constant defensive back pressure. Vick was hit on the first play of the game – a blitz. He was pressured and threw an interception on the next play.
On the Giants' first nine blitzes, Vick's best play was a five-yard completion. He was limping at one point, but finally beat the pressure in the fourth quarter by making the Giants' defensive backs whiff.
One of Vick's many amazing skills is that he never seems to tire. Vick beat the Giants with his feet in the fourth quarter after getting hammered all afternoon. No other player could have pulled off that comeback.
There was no miracle in the Vikings loss. Hit again on the first play of the game, Vick was hobbled throughout with a quadriceps injury. He was sacked six times and turned the ball over twice.
Opponents forced Vick into nine turnovers in the final five games, fifth most in the league. He also had six fumbles recovered by the Eagles. Still the most explosive player in the league, Vick was forced into making more mistakes.
Eagles line woes
Vick's mistakes increased largely because of the mistakes made by his linemen. Don't let left tackle Jason Peters' Pro Bowl appearance fool you. This is not a great Philly offensive line, especially in the middle. The first play I wrote about above was instructive. The Eagles struggled to contain Packers B.J. Raji, and the second-year player has only improved since.
Clay Matthews terrorized the Eagles in the opener, and the Packers hope to have their best lineman Cullen Jenkins back on Sunday. The Eagles linemen end up on the ground way too often. It's not all about recognition. The Cowboys also took them apart and the group appears to lack cohesion, and communication.
"I think it's important starting with me that we're all aware of it and it's a team effort," coach Andy Reid said Wednesday. "It's an offensive effort to make sure that everybody's on the same page and we're rolling there."
The Young Guns
Philadelphia's exciting youth on offense is a blessing, and it could also be a curse in the playoffs. The team's young core of skill players need to do their part to combat quick pressure. Wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin often can't beat press coverage to become available to Vick quickly. Jackson needs to recognize where the blitz is coming from and run precise routes.
The Eagles are the best quick strike offense in the league. They aren't great at long, slow touchdown marches. This is a week where Jackson, Maclin, and running back LeSean McCoy all have to be on the same page as Vick because the Packers will throw a lot at them.
This could be the most talented young core of skill position players in the league. The Packers still have better continuity and chemistry. Aaron Rodgers throws with Greg Jennings and his other receivers beginning in March every year. They have grown up in the same system, along with wideouts Jordy Nelson and James Jones. (Donald Driver predates the system.)
Maclin, McCoy, and wideout Riley Cooper don't have much experience in big games with Vick. Freelancing will be difficult to do against the Packers.
A Nightmare Matchup
The Eagles did not want to see the Packers. It's not just because Aaron Rodgers can expose Philadelphia's thin secondary or because the Packers wideouts can take advantage of the Philadelphia's poor tackling. Green Bay's defense can win a game on its own.
The Giants approach worked for three and a half quarters because of their cornerbacks. Corey Webster and Terrell Thomas are both physical players that mostly smothered Jackson and Maclin in single coverage. That freed up safeties to blitz Vick.
There isn't a better duo of physical cornerbacks in the league than Green Bay's Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams. They can build on New York's approach with one decided advantage: Woodson is the most versatile cornerback in football.
A lot of New York's problems came from missed tackles from safeties Deon Grant and Kenny Phillips. Woodson isn't going to miss those plays when he is in position. With plenty of time to prepare, Vick says they will be ready.
"If we see the same things, and I'm almost 100 percent sure that we'll get the type of looks - they might not be the exact same - but in some way, shape or form, it'll be similar," Vick said this week. "So, we just have to be ready for it and I think we've learned a lot from watching that film."
Packers veteran defensive coordinator Dom Capers will show things Vick hasn't seen. Capers has seen it all and knows better than to exactly duplicate what the Giants and Vikings did.
In the first matchup, Vick was sacked by linebacker Frank Zombo when he didn't recognize who was coming off the edge. Matthews made a huge sack on the game's final drive on a terrific individual play. Matthews plastered Vick another time.
By late in the fourth quarter of the opener, Green Bay's pressures started to get home. Capers and the Packers won't be preparing for Kevin Kolb this time. They know what they are getting.
A "Nightmare" for Both Sides
Those are some of the obstacles Vick faces. It makes it sound like the Eagles are a heavy underdog, which is hardly the case. That's the magic of Vick, the ultimate equalizer. After the first Packers-Eagles game, Packers cornerback Tramon Williams said Vick forced the team to throw out their game-plan.
Defensive tackle Ryan Pickett was asked this week by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel where Vick ranked on the team's "to-do list" this week.
"He is the to-do list," Pickett said.
This game remains a toss-up because Vick breaks all the normal rules. He rushed for nine touchdowns in 12 games; the entire Packers team rushed for 11 all season. Vick easily averaged more rushing yards per-game than any Packers running back. When throwing the ball, Vick ranked in the top five overall in yards per attempt and quarterback rating.
It doesn't get any better for a Wild Card Weekend game. We get to watch two of the best five quarterbacks in the league with supporting casts talented enough to win it all.
Logic points to the Packers, who are peaking at the right time. They have fewer mountains to climb. Logic also said Kevin Kolb would be Philadelphia's quarterback this season and that Vick would never regain the skills he had in Atlanta.
Michael Vick's game has never been about logic.
Looking Back for Value
2010 fantasy leagues were not won in the first couple of rounds. The late-round fliers many of us were high on didn't provide consistent production either. When push came to shove this season, it was about mid-round value and waiver claims.
As for those waiver gems, we can't possibly predict who will be the next Peyton Hillis or Michael Vick. Chris Wesseling is here to guide us in that department during the season with his dominating Waiver Wired column. But we can look back at the season and examine trends within those mid-round value picks.
The guys I'm talking about are Darren McFadden, Dwayne Bowe, Matt Forte and Greg Jennings. It can also apply to early picks like Michael Turner and Calvin Johnson. The trend is supremely talented, still young players coming off down years. It's a simple concept that we can take away from the 2010 season:
www.therx.ws
Darren McFadden
2009 fantasy points: 66.2
2010 fantasy points: 226.4
Dwayne Bowe
2009 fantasy points: 82.9
2010 fantasy points: 206.2
Matt Forte
2009 fantasy points: 164.0
2010 fantasy points: 215.6
Greg Jennings
2009 fantasy points: 135.3
2010 fantasy points: 198.5
Of course, there were plenty of guys that fit this trend that did not break out or bounce back. Beanie Wells and Michael Crabtree come to mind. But the point is that we did not have to spend exceedingly high draft picks to get these players. We can miss a few, but the hits outweigh it. As you can see from these three "expert" drafts I represented Rotoworld in, I did not have the greatest of drafts. But I hit with some of these mid-round value plays and ended up going to the Super Bowl in all three spots.
So, who will fit the trend next year? Here are some preliminary names from non-playoff teams to monitor during the offseason:
<BIG>Ryan Mathews</BIG>
2009 fantasy points: N/A
2010 fantasy points: 124.3
It was a perfect storm of woe for Mathews as a rookie. An early season high-ankle sprain, the emergence of bowling ball Mike Tolbert, fumbling issues and a surprising inability to pass protect led to fantasy bust status. But if you watched Mathews at the tail end of the season, you saw an extremely talented runner that busts tackles at will and has the speed to get to the edge. Much like LeSean McCoy between his first and second years, Mathews has the skills to improve in protection. Tolbert is an impending restricted free agent.
<BIG>Miles Austin</BIG>
2009 fantasy points: 198.0
2010 fantasy points: 146.1
In five games before Tony Romo's injury, Austin had 33 catches, 486 yards and two touchdowns. In the other 11 games, Austin had 36 catches, 555 yards and five touchdowns. Romo's collarbone is already fully healed.
<BIG>Vernon Davis</BIG>
2009 fantasy points: 174.5
2010 fantasy points: 133.4
Let's not forget how talented Davis is. A freakish athlete in the same vain as Jermichael Finley, he figures to benefit from a potential upgrade at quarterback. Perhaps more importantly, new coach Jim Harbaugh has a reputation as a strong offensive mind that can only help the Niners' offense as a whole.
<BIG>Larry Fitzgerald</BIG>
2009 fantasy points: 187.2
2010 fantasy points: 149.7
What do Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall and Richard Bartel have in common? They all threw passes to Larry Fitzgerald this season. Despite this motley crue, Fitzgerald still went over 1,000 yards and 90 catches for the fourth straight season. The Cardinals are a good bet to bring a veteran quarterback capable of putting the ball in Fitzgerald's massive catch radius more often.
2010 fantasy leagues were not won in the first couple of rounds. The late-round fliers many of us were high on didn't provide consistent production either. When push came to shove this season, it was about mid-round value and waiver claims.
As for those waiver gems, we can't possibly predict who will be the next Peyton Hillis or Michael Vick. Chris Wesseling is here to guide us in that department during the season with his dominating Waiver Wired column. But we can look back at the season and examine trends within those mid-round value picks.
The guys I'm talking about are Darren McFadden, Dwayne Bowe, Matt Forte and Greg Jennings. It can also apply to early picks like Michael Turner and Calvin Johnson. The trend is supremely talented, still young players coming off down years. It's a simple concept that we can take away from the 2010 season:
www.therx.ws
Darren McFadden
2009 fantasy points: 66.2
2010 fantasy points: 226.4
Dwayne Bowe
2009 fantasy points: 82.9
2010 fantasy points: 206.2
Matt Forte
2009 fantasy points: 164.0
2010 fantasy points: 215.6
Greg Jennings
2009 fantasy points: 135.3
2010 fantasy points: 198.5
Of course, there were plenty of guys that fit this trend that did not break out or bounce back. Beanie Wells and Michael Crabtree come to mind. But the point is that we did not have to spend exceedingly high draft picks to get these players. We can miss a few, but the hits outweigh it. As you can see from these three "expert" drafts I represented Rotoworld in, I did not have the greatest of drafts. But I hit with some of these mid-round value plays and ended up going to the Super Bowl in all three spots.
So, who will fit the trend next year? Here are some preliminary names from non-playoff teams to monitor during the offseason:
<BIG>Ryan Mathews</BIG>
2009 fantasy points: N/A
2010 fantasy points: 124.3
It was a perfect storm of woe for Mathews as a rookie. An early season high-ankle sprain, the emergence of bowling ball Mike Tolbert, fumbling issues and a surprising inability to pass protect led to fantasy bust status. But if you watched Mathews at the tail end of the season, you saw an extremely talented runner that busts tackles at will and has the speed to get to the edge. Much like LeSean McCoy between his first and second years, Mathews has the skills to improve in protection. Tolbert is an impending restricted free agent.
<BIG>Miles Austin</BIG>
2009 fantasy points: 198.0
2010 fantasy points: 146.1
In five games before Tony Romo's injury, Austin had 33 catches, 486 yards and two touchdowns. In the other 11 games, Austin had 36 catches, 555 yards and five touchdowns. Romo's collarbone is already fully healed.
<BIG>Vernon Davis</BIG>
2009 fantasy points: 174.5
2010 fantasy points: 133.4
Let's not forget how talented Davis is. A freakish athlete in the same vain as Jermichael Finley, he figures to benefit from a potential upgrade at quarterback. Perhaps more importantly, new coach Jim Harbaugh has a reputation as a strong offensive mind that can only help the Niners' offense as a whole.
<BIG>Larry Fitzgerald</BIG>
2009 fantasy points: 187.2
2010 fantasy points: 149.7
What do Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall and Richard Bartel have in common? They all threw passes to Larry Fitzgerald this season. Despite this motley crue, Fitzgerald still went over 1,000 yards and 90 catches for the fourth straight season. The Cardinals are a good bet to bring a veteran quarterback capable of putting the ball in Fitzgerald's massive catch radius more often.
Bowl Season Risers and Fallers
Heading into an offseason of labor uncertainty due to the lack of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, one of the few things we know for sure is that there will be an NFL draft. It will last three days for the second year in a row, and the first round will take place on Thursday, April 28.
The first big segment of the "pre-draft process" is Bowl Season. NFL coaches and GMs will get around to watching tape on draft-eligibles eventually, but first impressions can go a long way. During the pro season, NFL shot-callers are too consumed by weekly game preparation to intensely study college players. In many cases, Bowl Season is their first opportunity to watch the rookies they'll be selecting in April.
The college bowls began on December 18 and ended Monday night. Because this is a fantasy-based website, we'll focus on select offensive skill players who helped and hurt their draft stock over the last three-plus weeks.
[SIZE=+1]Bowl Season Risers[/SIZE]
Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd
Earning Sun Bowl MVP honors, Floyd continued to strengthen his early-round pick resume with 109 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions in the Fighting Irish's 33-17 win over Miami. Matched up with projected first-round cornerback Brandon Harris for much of the contest, Floyd opened the scoring with TDs of two and 34 yards to cap each of Notre Dame's first two drives. Blocking fiercely as the Irish nursed a comfortable lead, Floyd helped Brian Kelly's team rush for 196 yards while also passing Jeff Samardzija for the school record in touchdown catches. At 6'3/227, Floyd is a physical wideout with plenty of speed and leaping ability to dominate in the vertical passing game. He met with Kelly on Tuesday morning to ponder his future, and will likely officially declare for the draft before the January 15 deadline.
Alabama RB Mark Ingram
The Crimson Tide only needed 12 carries from Ingram in their 49-7 Capital One Bowl blowout win over Michigan State, but the 2009 Heisman winner made the most of them. Crashing through defenders on two touchdowns deep in the red zone, Ingram also created gains of 30, 12, 8, and 14 yards before being rested for good midway through the third quarter. The Spartans had one of the best linebacker corps in NCAA and surrendered under 3.8 yards per carry during the regular season, so this was no small feat. Ingram's numbers were down as a junior after preseason arthroscopic knee surgery, but he is a pro-ready back with NFL-caliber power, deceptive perimeter speed, and arguably the best vision of any runner to come out since Ray Rice. Ingram officially declared on January 6, and is the consensus favorite to be the first running back selected.
Hawaii WR Greg Salas
The Warriors played the Hawaii Bowl without top deep threat Rodney Bailey (academics), so it was up to Salas to pick up the slack against Tulsa. Usually a slot receiver, Salas recorded 13 receptions for a career-high 214 yards and two TDs, in the process breaking Ashley Lelie's school record for single-season receiving yards and Davone Bess' receptions mark. Hawaii had to throw to keep up after an early deficit, but Salas answered questions about his downfield receiving skills with six catches of 16-plus yards. He also generated a whopping 10 first downs. Salas still has to prove he wasn't the product of OC Nick Solovich's run-and-shoot offense, but he certainly looks the part of an NFL wideout at 6'2/210, and only Biletnikoff Award winner ****** Blackmon was a more productive receiver during the college season. A fifth-year senior, Salas could prove a late-round bargain.
Illinois RB Mikel Leshoure
A clear-cut No. 2 running back for the 2011 draft has yet to emerge, but Leshoure made a strong case during Illinois' 38-14 Texas Bowl romp. A 6'0/230-pound third-year junior, Leshoure rushed 29 times for 184 yards and three touchdowns, and chipped in 21 more yards on two receptions against Baylor. The dread-locked power back broke off 19 plays of five-plus yards, getting stronger as the game progressed with 54 yards and the third touchdown on his final seven rushing attempts (7.71 YPC). Leshoure's stock wasn't going to get much better in a weak running back class, so he smartly announced his intentions to enter the draft on January 11. He finished the season with 20 all-purpose touchdowns, a 6.04 yards-per-carry average, and nearly 1,900 total yards.
Boise State WR Austin Pettis
The Broncos whipped Utah 26-3 in the MAACO Bowl, and Pettis was the featured player for Boise. Out-muscling the Utes' defensive backs -- including possible first-round corner Brandon Burton more than once -- Pettis caught 12 balls for 147 yards and a touchdown. Though the 6-foot-3, 203-pound fourth-year senior will never be mistaken for a burner, Pettis may have the most reliable hands of any draft-eligible receiver in 2011. After two early incompletions, Pettis hauled in each of his dozen targets for a combined seven first downs, including gains of 46, 21, 18, and 17 in the second half. Long term, Pettis projects similarly to Michael Jenkins as a chain-moving receiver and willing blocker. His big bowl game should solidify a mid- to late-round grade heading into the Senior Bowl.
Syracuse RB Delone Carter
Carter was desperate for a big finish to a college career marred by off-field blunders and injury, and the fifth-year senior delivered with a career-best 198 rushing yards in Syracuse's Pinstripe Bowl win over Kansas State. Though Wildcats running back Daniel Thomas was more highly touted entering the game, Carter was more effective in this one, gutting K-State for a 7.33 yards-per-carry average and two touchdowns. A thick-legged power runner with exceptional balance, Carter put Doug Marrone's team on his back on the opening possession of the second half, racking up six rushing attempts for a combined 47 yards, including a seven-yard TD off right tackle. Picking up five or more yards 13 times, Carter added a 60-yard icer in the fourth quarter to set up Ross Krautman's 39-yard field goal, which ultimately proved the game winner in the Orange's 36-34 victory.
[SIZE=+1]Bowl Season Fallers[/SIZE]
Florida State QB Christian Ponder
Ponder was once considered a future first-round pick, but multiple surgeries appear to have Tim Couched his throwing arm. This was evident in the Seminoles' Chick-fil-A Bowl matchup with South Carolina, as numerous passes from Ponder either sailed well above the head of his intended target or went directly into the dirt. Ponder completed 1-of-5 passes for six yards, and was yanked in favor of sophomore E.J. Manuel early in the second quarter. Coach Jimbo Fisher attributed the benching to a concussion, but it's fair to wonder if Ponder's arm will ever be the same. The fifth-year senior underwent two surgeries on his right elbow in the matter of one month prior to the bowl game, and also separated his right shoulder while attempting a tackle after an interception as a junior -- another injury that required operation. Ponder may be damaged goods.
Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett
Mallett showed his cannon arm with 10 completions of 16 or more yards in the Razorbacks' 31-26 Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State, but there were reasons for worry beyond the box score. Continuing to exhibit poor footwork, pocket presence, and a long delivery, Mallett took four sacks to lose 28 yards, and went 1-of-6 for four yards with an interception on his final six throws. This wasn't the first time Mallett threw a crucial game-ending pick, as he did the same in Arkansas' Week 4 loss to Alabama. With Bobby Petrino's team trailing 28-10 through two quarters, they needed a big second half from their quarterback. Receiver drops deserve plenty of blame, but Mallett's passing game simply didn't come through, producing just 92 second-half yards on 23 drop-backs. The team that drafts Mallett must be sure it can keep him upright, because he is dangerously short on mobility.
Washington QB Jake Locker
The Huskies pulled off an upset of Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, but it wasn't Locker's throwing ability that made the difference. In fact, the athletic senior was more productive as a rusher (83 yards, TD) than passer, completing 5-of-16 attempts for 56 yards and no touchdowns. Locker did show toughness by returning to the game after a helmet-to-helmet hit in the first half, but started 0-for-8 and didn't complete a single pass until the third quarter. Locker's decision to forgo the 2010 draft for another year in coach Steve Sarkisian's pro-style offense was unsuccessful, as he statistically regressed across the board while often running scared behind Washington's sieve-like offensive line. It will take a strong Senior Bowl performance for Locker to rehab his stock.
Georgia Tech RB Anthony Allen
ESPN's Todd McShay called Allen a "potential third-round pick" entering the Independence Bowl, but that's not going to happen. Thoroughly unimpressive against an Air Force run defense that ranked 103rd amongst 120 FBS teams, Allen was stuffed for three or fewer yards on 15 of his 23 carries and also fumbled. Like his Yellow Jackets predecessor Jonathan Dwyer, Allen offers little in the passing game and is billed as a power back at 6'0/230. In coach Paul Johnson's triple-option offense, the redshirt senior should've trampled over a lightweight Falcons front seven. Instead, Allen may have pushed his draft grade into the latter round-to-priority free agent range.
Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi
Stanzi will leave Iowa with a 26-9 career record as a starter, but he continued to show why he's not much of a pro prospect in the Hawkeyes' 27-24 Insight Bowl win over Missouri. The fifth-year senior completed just 11-of-21 passes for 200 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Stanzi misfired on five of his final seven pass attempts during a game the Hawkeyes needed to come from behind, including both of the picks, one of which led to a Mizzou touchdown. Stanzi is well built at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, and will get a chance to impress at the Senior Bowl later this month. He just isn't a natural passer, however, and is likely looking at a late-round selection in April.
Heading into an offseason of labor uncertainty due to the lack of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, one of the few things we know for sure is that there will be an NFL draft. It will last three days for the second year in a row, and the first round will take place on Thursday, April 28.
The first big segment of the "pre-draft process" is Bowl Season. NFL coaches and GMs will get around to watching tape on draft-eligibles eventually, but first impressions can go a long way. During the pro season, NFL shot-callers are too consumed by weekly game preparation to intensely study college players. In many cases, Bowl Season is their first opportunity to watch the rookies they'll be selecting in April.
The college bowls began on December 18 and ended Monday night. Because this is a fantasy-based website, we'll focus on select offensive skill players who helped and hurt their draft stock over the last three-plus weeks.
[SIZE=+1]Bowl Season Risers[/SIZE]
Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd
Earning Sun Bowl MVP honors, Floyd continued to strengthen his early-round pick resume with 109 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions in the Fighting Irish's 33-17 win over Miami. Matched up with projected first-round cornerback Brandon Harris for much of the contest, Floyd opened the scoring with TDs of two and 34 yards to cap each of Notre Dame's first two drives. Blocking fiercely as the Irish nursed a comfortable lead, Floyd helped Brian Kelly's team rush for 196 yards while also passing Jeff Samardzija for the school record in touchdown catches. At 6'3/227, Floyd is a physical wideout with plenty of speed and leaping ability to dominate in the vertical passing game. He met with Kelly on Tuesday morning to ponder his future, and will likely officially declare for the draft before the January 15 deadline.
Alabama RB Mark Ingram
The Crimson Tide only needed 12 carries from Ingram in their 49-7 Capital One Bowl blowout win over Michigan State, but the 2009 Heisman winner made the most of them. Crashing through defenders on two touchdowns deep in the red zone, Ingram also created gains of 30, 12, 8, and 14 yards before being rested for good midway through the third quarter. The Spartans had one of the best linebacker corps in NCAA and surrendered under 3.8 yards per carry during the regular season, so this was no small feat. Ingram's numbers were down as a junior after preseason arthroscopic knee surgery, but he is a pro-ready back with NFL-caliber power, deceptive perimeter speed, and arguably the best vision of any runner to come out since Ray Rice. Ingram officially declared on January 6, and is the consensus favorite to be the first running back selected.
Hawaii WR Greg Salas
The Warriors played the Hawaii Bowl without top deep threat Rodney Bailey (academics), so it was up to Salas to pick up the slack against Tulsa. Usually a slot receiver, Salas recorded 13 receptions for a career-high 214 yards and two TDs, in the process breaking Ashley Lelie's school record for single-season receiving yards and Davone Bess' receptions mark. Hawaii had to throw to keep up after an early deficit, but Salas answered questions about his downfield receiving skills with six catches of 16-plus yards. He also generated a whopping 10 first downs. Salas still has to prove he wasn't the product of OC Nick Solovich's run-and-shoot offense, but he certainly looks the part of an NFL wideout at 6'2/210, and only Biletnikoff Award winner ****** Blackmon was a more productive receiver during the college season. A fifth-year senior, Salas could prove a late-round bargain.
Illinois RB Mikel Leshoure
A clear-cut No. 2 running back for the 2011 draft has yet to emerge, but Leshoure made a strong case during Illinois' 38-14 Texas Bowl romp. A 6'0/230-pound third-year junior, Leshoure rushed 29 times for 184 yards and three touchdowns, and chipped in 21 more yards on two receptions against Baylor. The dread-locked power back broke off 19 plays of five-plus yards, getting stronger as the game progressed with 54 yards and the third touchdown on his final seven rushing attempts (7.71 YPC). Leshoure's stock wasn't going to get much better in a weak running back class, so he smartly announced his intentions to enter the draft on January 11. He finished the season with 20 all-purpose touchdowns, a 6.04 yards-per-carry average, and nearly 1,900 total yards.
Boise State WR Austin Pettis
The Broncos whipped Utah 26-3 in the MAACO Bowl, and Pettis was the featured player for Boise. Out-muscling the Utes' defensive backs -- including possible first-round corner Brandon Burton more than once -- Pettis caught 12 balls for 147 yards and a touchdown. Though the 6-foot-3, 203-pound fourth-year senior will never be mistaken for a burner, Pettis may have the most reliable hands of any draft-eligible receiver in 2011. After two early incompletions, Pettis hauled in each of his dozen targets for a combined seven first downs, including gains of 46, 21, 18, and 17 in the second half. Long term, Pettis projects similarly to Michael Jenkins as a chain-moving receiver and willing blocker. His big bowl game should solidify a mid- to late-round grade heading into the Senior Bowl.
Syracuse RB Delone Carter
Carter was desperate for a big finish to a college career marred by off-field blunders and injury, and the fifth-year senior delivered with a career-best 198 rushing yards in Syracuse's Pinstripe Bowl win over Kansas State. Though Wildcats running back Daniel Thomas was more highly touted entering the game, Carter was more effective in this one, gutting K-State for a 7.33 yards-per-carry average and two touchdowns. A thick-legged power runner with exceptional balance, Carter put Doug Marrone's team on his back on the opening possession of the second half, racking up six rushing attempts for a combined 47 yards, including a seven-yard TD off right tackle. Picking up five or more yards 13 times, Carter added a 60-yard icer in the fourth quarter to set up Ross Krautman's 39-yard field goal, which ultimately proved the game winner in the Orange's 36-34 victory.
[SIZE=+1]Bowl Season Fallers[/SIZE]
Florida State QB Christian Ponder
Ponder was once considered a future first-round pick, but multiple surgeries appear to have Tim Couched his throwing arm. This was evident in the Seminoles' Chick-fil-A Bowl matchup with South Carolina, as numerous passes from Ponder either sailed well above the head of his intended target or went directly into the dirt. Ponder completed 1-of-5 passes for six yards, and was yanked in favor of sophomore E.J. Manuel early in the second quarter. Coach Jimbo Fisher attributed the benching to a concussion, but it's fair to wonder if Ponder's arm will ever be the same. The fifth-year senior underwent two surgeries on his right elbow in the matter of one month prior to the bowl game, and also separated his right shoulder while attempting a tackle after an interception as a junior -- another injury that required operation. Ponder may be damaged goods.
Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett
Mallett showed his cannon arm with 10 completions of 16 or more yards in the Razorbacks' 31-26 Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State, but there were reasons for worry beyond the box score. Continuing to exhibit poor footwork, pocket presence, and a long delivery, Mallett took four sacks to lose 28 yards, and went 1-of-6 for four yards with an interception on his final six throws. This wasn't the first time Mallett threw a crucial game-ending pick, as he did the same in Arkansas' Week 4 loss to Alabama. With Bobby Petrino's team trailing 28-10 through two quarters, they needed a big second half from their quarterback. Receiver drops deserve plenty of blame, but Mallett's passing game simply didn't come through, producing just 92 second-half yards on 23 drop-backs. The team that drafts Mallett must be sure it can keep him upright, because he is dangerously short on mobility.
Washington QB Jake Locker
The Huskies pulled off an upset of Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, but it wasn't Locker's throwing ability that made the difference. In fact, the athletic senior was more productive as a rusher (83 yards, TD) than passer, completing 5-of-16 attempts for 56 yards and no touchdowns. Locker did show toughness by returning to the game after a helmet-to-helmet hit in the first half, but started 0-for-8 and didn't complete a single pass until the third quarter. Locker's decision to forgo the 2010 draft for another year in coach Steve Sarkisian's pro-style offense was unsuccessful, as he statistically regressed across the board while often running scared behind Washington's sieve-like offensive line. It will take a strong Senior Bowl performance for Locker to rehab his stock.
Georgia Tech RB Anthony Allen
ESPN's Todd McShay called Allen a "potential third-round pick" entering the Independence Bowl, but that's not going to happen. Thoroughly unimpressive against an Air Force run defense that ranked 103rd amongst 120 FBS teams, Allen was stuffed for three or fewer yards on 15 of his 23 carries and also fumbled. Like his Yellow Jackets predecessor Jonathan Dwyer, Allen offers little in the passing game and is billed as a power back at 6'0/230. In coach Paul Johnson's triple-option offense, the redshirt senior should've trampled over a lightweight Falcons front seven. Instead, Allen may have pushed his draft grade into the latter round-to-priority free agent range.
Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi
Stanzi will leave Iowa with a 26-9 career record as a starter, but he continued to show why he's not much of a pro prospect in the Hawkeyes' 27-24 Insight Bowl win over Missouri. The fifth-year senior completed just 11-of-21 passes for 200 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Stanzi misfired on five of his final seven pass attempts during a game the Hawkeyes needed to come from behind, including both of the picks, one of which led to a Mizzou touchdown. Stanzi is well built at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, and will get a chance to impress at the Senior Bowl later this month. He just isn't a natural passer, however, and is likely looking at a late-round selection in April.
Matchups: Divisional Round
At least three of the four wild-card round games were thrillers, setting the bar high for the divisional round. This is typically the most exciting weekend of football during the NFL season, though, so expectations were already innately lofty.
Looking at this weekend's slate, I only see one game that has serious blowout potential: Jets-Pats on Sunday night. Oddly, Saturday's schedule is the most enticing. Although I clearly expect the Packers to win (I picked them as Super Bowl champs during the preseason), Green Bay-Atlanta probably has the highest scoring potential of the divisional round. Steelers-Ravens projects as the lowest-scoring affair.
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4:30 ET Saturday: Ravens @ Steelers
When the Ravens Have the Ball
Facing a Steelers defense that dominates in the trenches and on both edges, the Ravens' best area to attack is the perimeter. Corner Bryant McFadden is the weak link in the Pittsburgh secondary. Bookend Ike Taylor often "shadows" No. 1 receivers, and will likely follow Anquan Boldin for most of Saturday's game. Baltimore play-caller Cam Cameron can create favorable matchups by spreading out the defense with three- and four-receiver sets, allowing quarterback Joe Flacco to pick on McFadden when he's in man coverage on Derrick Mason, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or Donte' Stallworth. A short passing game in which Flacco gets the football out quickly could also mitigate Steelers outside rushers LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison's impact on the game.
The Steelers held Ravens tailback Ray Rice to 3.06 yards per carry and no touchdowns in two meetings this season. Rice was also a non-factor in the passing game, catching three passes for 27 yards combined. Cameron can't afford to abandon his most dynamic player again, even if the matchup is unfavorable. Though Rice is unlikely to have success inside the tackles, the Ravens can keep him dangerous by getting him the ball in space. Rice doesn't have to be the focal point of Cameron's game plan, but he must stay involved with 15-20 touches on the defensive exterior.
When the Steelers Have the Ball
Playing the most efficient football of his life, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger compiled an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in final eight regular season games. It's more impressive when you consider Big Ben stayed highly aggressive, averaging 8.21 yards per throw in his last seven outings. A big reason for Pittsburgh's increasingly dangerous passing attack has been the emergence of Pro Bowl snub Mike Wallace. Clearly surpassing Hines Ward as Roethlisberger's go-to receiver, the deep threat leads the NFL in 20-plus yard receptions and the AFC in yards-per-catch average. Wallace also tied John Stallworth's franchise record with seven 100-yard games during the regular season. He'll command Baltimore's defensive attention on Saturday.
These AFC North teams split the regular season series, and for the Steelers there was a stark contrast in run-to-pass ratio in the two affairs. Pittsburgh threw 38 times compared to 24 rushes in its Week 13 win over Baltimore, but had 21 passes to 27 runs in a Week 4 loss. Though the disparity was due mostly to Roethlisberger's suspension from the first game, it's fair to believe the Steelers are better off attacking the Ravens through the air. Baltimore held Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall to 2.82 yards per carry this season, and in his career Mendenhall's average is 3.03 against the Ravens. Pittsburgh is more likely to keep the chains moving with the pass.
Coaches
Baltimore coach John Harbaugh is coming off his fourth career playoff win in six tries, but he is 2-5 all time against the Steelers. Just one of those seven games was decided by more than four points, so history says this one's going to be close. In three seasons as Ravens head coach, Harbaugh is just 12-12 in games decided by a touchdown or less. His overall record is 36-18
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin's only two losses to Harbaugh have come without Ben Roethlisberger, due to injury or suspension. Tomlin is 6-0 all time against the Ravens when Big Ben starts. Tomlin also has bulletin board material after Ravens defensive end Terrell Suggs showed up to practice Wednesday donning a t-shirt that flipped the bird to Pittsburgh.
X-factors
Billy Cundiff
We mentioned that scoring in Ravens-Steelers is likely to be tight. The oddsmakers agree, tabbing Pittsburgh as a three-point favorite. So if the game goes as expected, special teams could play a major role. Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff tied a league record with 40 regular season touchbacks, and including the playoffs has drilled 29 of his 32 field goal tries. Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham was signed off the street at midseason, so Baltimore has an obvious edge in this area.
Emmanuel Sanders
A third-round rookie from SMU, Sanders overtook Antwaan Randle El to be the Steelers' No. 3 receiver at midseason and played 60.8 percent of Pittsburgh's snaps in the final eight games. Hines Ward was a full-time player all along, but Sanders nearly matched the veteran in receptions and yards during the second half, also scoring one more touchdown. Sanders offers better athleticism at this stage of Ward's career, and might move past him to be Roethlisberger's No. 2 receiver on Saturday. The Ravens held Ward to just three regular season catches for 27 yards.
Prediction: Steelers 17, Ravens 14
8:00 ET Saturday: Packers @ Falcons
When the Packers Have the Ball
With an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 67.4 completion rate in his last three games, Aaron Rodgers has Green Bay's offense clicking at the right time. Rodgers should've had a fourth touchdown in last Sunday's wild-card win over the Eagles, but James Jones dropped a perfectly placed pass after beating shutdown cornerback Asante Samuel down the right sideline. Having accounted for 395 yards against them in Week 12, Rodgers has already shown that the Falcons' pass defense is an unworthy opponent. Top receiver Greg Jennings was particularly dominant in that game, racking up 119 yards on five receptions. It's really not a matter of IF the Packers' passing game will light up the Georgia Dome. It's a matter of just how many points they'll score.
Packers rookie power back James Starks is generating a lot of media hype following a breakout, 132-yard performance in Philadelphia. The vast majority of Starks' yardage came after contact, but not to be overlooked was Green Bay's victory in the trenches. Packers center Scott Wells and right guard Josh Sitton overwhelmed the Eagles' interior. They'll have the opportunity for a repeat effort against an undersized Atlanta front four on Saturday night. The Falcons served up 4.63 yards per rushing attempt during the regular season -- the sixth worst mark in football.
When the Falcons Have the Ball
The Falcons run a ball-control offense. Atlanta ranked fifth in the NFL in regular season rushing attempts, and just 25th in yards per throw. Quarterback Matt Ryan's job is to avoid turnovers and deliver completions to Atlanta's lone play-maker in the passing game -- NFL receptions leader Roddy White. Michael Turner is the offensive centerpiece, since Week 7 averaging 23 touches a game. Turner's stretch-run dip in production may be cause for concern, however. Whereas he averaged 4.82 yards per carry in Weeks 1-12, Turner plummeted to 2.67 with two fumbles in the final five games. Ideally for the Falcons, a first-round playoff bye helped Turner get his legs back.
In addition to Turner's production slip, tight end Tony Gonzalez's worst statistical season in 12 years was a key story buried beneath 13 Falcons wins. Turning 35 next month, Gonzalez struggles to create separation, and his regular season yards-per-reception average of 9.37 was easily a career low. While Gonzo remains Ryan's top red-zone target, he won't force Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers' hand as much as the future Hall of Famer would have in years past. On paper at least, the Packers project to give the Falcons more matchup problems than vice versa.
Coaches
Mike Smith has compiled a 33-15 record in three regular seasons as Falcons coach, but lost his only previous playoff game 30-24 to the Cardinals two Januaries ago. Smith did run the defense for a 2007 Jaguars team that advanced to the divisional round. Overall as a head coach and coordinator, however, Smith is 1-3 in the postseason and has been outscored by a margin of 89-59 in the losses.
Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy improved his postseason record to 2-2 in last weekend's win over Philadelphia. 1.5-point underdogs in the wild-card round, the Packers are again projected to lose by the Vegas oddsmakers. The margin given this week is 2.5 points. McCarthy is 50-34 all time as Packers head coach, including the playoffs.
X-factors
Jordy Nelson
The Packers have a tendency to increase Nelson's snaps at the expense of James Jones in weeks following Jones' all-too-common gaffes, and his embarrassing drop in Philadelphia may necessitate more action for Nelson against the Falcons. Nelson caught all five of his pass targets for 61 yards and a score in Green Bay's Week 12 loss to Atlanta. He did a terrific job to keep the play alive on his 10-yard touchdown catch in that game, hauling in an absolute rocket from Aaron Rodgers after out-running Falcons free safety Thomas DeCoud to the left corner of the end zone.
Michael Jenkins
Jenkins' greatest strength is his downfield blocking ability, but the Falcons are going to need more from him on Saturday night. With Packers top cover corner Tramon Williams likely on Roddy White and Charles Woodson seeing his fair share of Tony Gonzalez, Jenkins could find himself one-on-one with undrafted rookie Sam Shields for much of the divisional round. While Shields has been a real find for Green Bay GM Ted Thompson, he gives up five inches and over 30 pounds to Jenkins. In order for the Falcons to beat the Packers, Jenkins must win this matchup.
Prediction: Packers 27, Falcons 20
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1:00 ET Sunday: Seahawks @ Bears
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
Matt Hasselbeck turned in a season-best game in last week's upset of New Orleans, but the Seahawks' 35-year-old quarterback no longer has coverage-challenged Saints safety Roman Harper to pick apart. The Bears field one of the league's top safety duos in Danieal Manning and Chris Harris, who helped Chicago finish in the top five in regular season interceptions, but bottom five in touchdown passes allowed. Seahawks receiver Mike Williams dominated Bears corner Charles Tillman for many of his 10 catches and 123 yards in the teams' Week 6 meeting, but coach Lovie Smith indicated this week that stopping Williams is the focus of Chicago's defensive approach. To pull off a second straight mammoth upset, it's going to require another genius game plan from Seahawks offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates. The Bears are 10-point favorites.
Like Hasselbeck, tailback Marshawn Lynch is unlikely to pull off another heroic effort in the wake of his 67-yard Run of the Year against New Orleans. After playing the divisional round at home, the Seahawks travel to Soldier Field to face a Bears defense that got last week off and ranked No. 2 against the run in 2010. In eight away games this season, Lynch is averaging a putrid 2.78 yards per carry. The Bears have also forced a league-high 15 fumbles by opposing rushers. Lynch has had ball security issues as a Seahawk, fumbling four times this season and losing all four.
When the Bears Have the Ball
With coordinator Mike Martz reining in his offense during the season's second half, quarterback Jay Cutler hasn't cleared 250 passing yards in the last ten weeks. Running back Matt Forte has overtaken Cutler as Chicago's most valuable skill player, touching the ball 20 times a game since Week 9, and peeling off 5.77 yards per carry in the last month and a half. The Seahawks ranked 21st against the run during the regular season, so Forte should continue to impose his will on Sunday afternoon. Seattle allowed Saints backs to total 192 yards and three TDs last weekend.
The Bears will still use the run to set up deep shots, and Seattle remains vulnerable to the passing game. Saints quarterback Drew Brees racked up 404 yards and two TDs in the wild-card round, despite Seattle frequently dropping seven or eight defenders into coverage and getting pressure from its front four. Because the Bears will have more rushing success than the Saints did, the Seahawks simply won't be able to play the same sort of style. Keep in mind that Chicago No. 1 receiver Johnny Knox had his best game of the season against Seattle in Week 6 (five catches, 120 yards).
Coaches
O.K., so maybe the "Twelfth Man" thing was for real. Seattle first-year coach Pete Carroll's team is 6-3 at home this season, but 2-6 in away games. The Seahawks go on the road for this one, of course, which stacks the odds against them.
Lovie Smith is in his seventh season as Bears coach. This is his first playoff berth since winning the NFC title during the 2006-2007 season, which ended against the Colts in the Super Bowl. All told, Smith is 2-2 in postseason games. He was one-and-done in his only other trip (2005).
X-factors
Olindo Mare
Like the rest of the Seahawks, Mare's home and away splits are lopsided. He's nailed 14-of-15 field goals with 11 touchbacks at Qwest Fiekl, but is just 11-of-15 with eight touchbacks in away games. In all likelihood, the Seahawks will need a perfect day from Mare to keep this game close. Mare's fellow specialist, punter Jon Ryan, will also be charged with keeping game-changing Bears returner Devin Hester at bay with directional punting. Hester led the league in regular season punt returns for touchdowns, punt return average, and punt returns of 20-plus yards.
Earl Bennett
As tight end Greg Olsen has taken a backseat in coordinator Mike Martz's offense, Bennett has leaped forward as the No. 2 wideout on the Bears. A slot receiver with great hands and a knack for finding soft spots in zone defenses, Bennett didn't drop a pass all season while unseating Devin Hester and Devin Aromashodu on the depth chart down the stretch. The Seahawks were willing to give up short passes over the middle in last week's win, and that's where Bennett does most of his work. 100 percent after a late-season ankle injury, Bennett will be a chain mover on Sunday.
Prediction: Bears 20, Seahawks 10
4:30 ET Sunday: Jets @ Patriots
When the Patriots Have the Ball
The Pats finished the regular season ranked first in both points scored and turnover differential, each by a wide margin. Quarterback Tom Brady compiled an NFL-best touchdown-to-turnover ratio of 37:5, and hasn't thrown an interception since Week 6. In the Pats' Week 13 matchup with these same Jets, Brady completed 72.4 percent of his 29 pass attempts for 326 yards and four touchdowns. Brady dominated that game with quick-outs that allowed his receivers to rack up yards after the catch. Slot receiver Wes Welker caught seven passes for 80 yards and a touchdown, passing-down back Danny Woodhead led New England with 104 receiving yards, and Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, and Brandon Tate all found the end zone in the 45-3 blowout.
Usually pass-happy in the red zone, the Patriots have discovered a true finisher at tailback in former undrafted free agent BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Nicknamed "Law Firm" because of his lengthy, hyphenated name, Green-Ellis scored 13 regular season touchdowns, including two in Week 13. Closing particularly strong, the north/south-running power back averaged 4.65 yards per carry from Week 8 on. The Jets have one of the top run defenses in football, but their primary focus will be to stop Brady. Green-Ellis won't face any eight-man fronts on Sunday.
When the Jets Have the Ball
The Jets' loss of mauling right tackle Damien Woody to a torn Achilles' tendon this week is cause for major concern. Woody was New York's best run blocker, and wasn't a liability in pass protection. Look for Patriots coach Bill Belichick, the NFL's preeminent game planner, to attack backup right tackle Wayne Hunter. A seven-year veteran, Hunter has just five career starts and struggled mightily while filling in for Woody in the final four regular season games. It's especially worrisome for rotating Jets tailbacks LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene. They won't have nearly as much daylight on power runs to the strong side.
The Patriots are most vulnerable in the secondary, so the Jets must have improved performance from Mark Sanchez to keep pace with New England's scoring. It's just becoming difficult to have confidence in the second-year Jets quarterback. Completing a miserable 55.0 percent of his passes on the season, Sanchez has thrown one touchdown pass compared to seven turnovers in the last month and a half. It doesn't help that Santonio Holmes appears to be playing at less than 100 percent. After battling late-season turf toe, Holmes is on this week's injury report with a quadricep ailment. He had a crucial drop in last week's win over Indianapolis.
Coaches
Just four coaches in NFL history have more postseason wins than New England's Bill Belichick, and he can tie Don Shula for second most all time by running the table this year. Belichick's .750 win percentage is second to only Vince Lombardi among coaches with at least five postseason appearances. Head to head against Rex Ryan, however, Belichick splits the series at 2-2.
The Jets lost their last matchup with the Pats 45-3, so there was no good reason for all their trash talk this week. It's understandable coming from coach Rex Ryan -- he was trying to take pressure off his players -- but Antonio Cromartie's swipes at Tom Brady only stand to fuel Tom Terrific's fire. It's also an indication that Ryan doesn't have total control of his locker room. Ryan will have to send plenty of safety help to Cromartie's side of the field, because Brady will attack the lesser of New York's cornerback duo early and often.
X-factors
Jerricho Cotchery
Cotchery has been a non-factor since losing his starting job to Santonio Holmes in Week 5. Dealt with injuries and reduced playing time, Cotchery is coming off his least productive regular season in six years while averaging a career-low 10.56 yards per catch. Where he can make a difference is in the punt return game. Cotchery showed he's back to full speed on a 15-yard return in the wild card round, and he had another 15-yarder in Week 17. The Jets' offense is likely to struggle, so they'll need all the special teams and field-position help they can get.
Danny Woodhead
The Pats don't have a true No. 1 receiver for Darrelle Revis to "shadow" all over the field, which makes the New England offense even more difficult for the Jets to defend. While Revis will likely move around the formation and see time against Wes Welker, Deion Branch, and even tight end Rob Gronkowski, Woodhead is one Patriot we know the shutdown cornerback won't be covering. Medically cleared after a Week 17 concussion, Woodhead racked up 104 yards on four catches against the Jets six weeks ago, and is averaging nearly six yards per carry. He'll get the ball 10-12 times Sunday night and give the slow Jets linebackers fits in open space.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Jets 17
At least three of the four wild-card round games were thrillers, setting the bar high for the divisional round. This is typically the most exciting weekend of football during the NFL season, though, so expectations were already innately lofty.
Looking at this weekend's slate, I only see one game that has serious blowout potential: Jets-Pats on Sunday night. Oddly, Saturday's schedule is the most enticing. Although I clearly expect the Packers to win (I picked them as Super Bowl champs during the preseason), Green Bay-Atlanta probably has the highest scoring potential of the divisional round. Steelers-Ravens projects as the lowest-scoring affair.
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4:30 ET Saturday: Ravens @ Steelers
When the Ravens Have the Ball
Facing a Steelers defense that dominates in the trenches and on both edges, the Ravens' best area to attack is the perimeter. Corner Bryant McFadden is the weak link in the Pittsburgh secondary. Bookend Ike Taylor often "shadows" No. 1 receivers, and will likely follow Anquan Boldin for most of Saturday's game. Baltimore play-caller Cam Cameron can create favorable matchups by spreading out the defense with three- and four-receiver sets, allowing quarterback Joe Flacco to pick on McFadden when he's in man coverage on Derrick Mason, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or Donte' Stallworth. A short passing game in which Flacco gets the football out quickly could also mitigate Steelers outside rushers LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison's impact on the game.
The Steelers held Ravens tailback Ray Rice to 3.06 yards per carry and no touchdowns in two meetings this season. Rice was also a non-factor in the passing game, catching three passes for 27 yards combined. Cameron can't afford to abandon his most dynamic player again, even if the matchup is unfavorable. Though Rice is unlikely to have success inside the tackles, the Ravens can keep him dangerous by getting him the ball in space. Rice doesn't have to be the focal point of Cameron's game plan, but he must stay involved with 15-20 touches on the defensive exterior.
When the Steelers Have the Ball
Playing the most efficient football of his life, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger compiled an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in final eight regular season games. It's more impressive when you consider Big Ben stayed highly aggressive, averaging 8.21 yards per throw in his last seven outings. A big reason for Pittsburgh's increasingly dangerous passing attack has been the emergence of Pro Bowl snub Mike Wallace. Clearly surpassing Hines Ward as Roethlisberger's go-to receiver, the deep threat leads the NFL in 20-plus yard receptions and the AFC in yards-per-catch average. Wallace also tied John Stallworth's franchise record with seven 100-yard games during the regular season. He'll command Baltimore's defensive attention on Saturday.
These AFC North teams split the regular season series, and for the Steelers there was a stark contrast in run-to-pass ratio in the two affairs. Pittsburgh threw 38 times compared to 24 rushes in its Week 13 win over Baltimore, but had 21 passes to 27 runs in a Week 4 loss. Though the disparity was due mostly to Roethlisberger's suspension from the first game, it's fair to believe the Steelers are better off attacking the Ravens through the air. Baltimore held Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall to 2.82 yards per carry this season, and in his career Mendenhall's average is 3.03 against the Ravens. Pittsburgh is more likely to keep the chains moving with the pass.
Coaches
Baltimore coach John Harbaugh is coming off his fourth career playoff win in six tries, but he is 2-5 all time against the Steelers. Just one of those seven games was decided by more than four points, so history says this one's going to be close. In three seasons as Ravens head coach, Harbaugh is just 12-12 in games decided by a touchdown or less. His overall record is 36-18
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin's only two losses to Harbaugh have come without Ben Roethlisberger, due to injury or suspension. Tomlin is 6-0 all time against the Ravens when Big Ben starts. Tomlin also has bulletin board material after Ravens defensive end Terrell Suggs showed up to practice Wednesday donning a t-shirt that flipped the bird to Pittsburgh.
X-factors
Billy Cundiff
We mentioned that scoring in Ravens-Steelers is likely to be tight. The oddsmakers agree, tabbing Pittsburgh as a three-point favorite. So if the game goes as expected, special teams could play a major role. Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff tied a league record with 40 regular season touchbacks, and including the playoffs has drilled 29 of his 32 field goal tries. Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham was signed off the street at midseason, so Baltimore has an obvious edge in this area.
Emmanuel Sanders
A third-round rookie from SMU, Sanders overtook Antwaan Randle El to be the Steelers' No. 3 receiver at midseason and played 60.8 percent of Pittsburgh's snaps in the final eight games. Hines Ward was a full-time player all along, but Sanders nearly matched the veteran in receptions and yards during the second half, also scoring one more touchdown. Sanders offers better athleticism at this stage of Ward's career, and might move past him to be Roethlisberger's No. 2 receiver on Saturday. The Ravens held Ward to just three regular season catches for 27 yards.
Prediction: Steelers 17, Ravens 14
8:00 ET Saturday: Packers @ Falcons
When the Packers Have the Ball
With an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 67.4 completion rate in his last three games, Aaron Rodgers has Green Bay's offense clicking at the right time. Rodgers should've had a fourth touchdown in last Sunday's wild-card win over the Eagles, but James Jones dropped a perfectly placed pass after beating shutdown cornerback Asante Samuel down the right sideline. Having accounted for 395 yards against them in Week 12, Rodgers has already shown that the Falcons' pass defense is an unworthy opponent. Top receiver Greg Jennings was particularly dominant in that game, racking up 119 yards on five receptions. It's really not a matter of IF the Packers' passing game will light up the Georgia Dome. It's a matter of just how many points they'll score.
Packers rookie power back James Starks is generating a lot of media hype following a breakout, 132-yard performance in Philadelphia. The vast majority of Starks' yardage came after contact, but not to be overlooked was Green Bay's victory in the trenches. Packers center Scott Wells and right guard Josh Sitton overwhelmed the Eagles' interior. They'll have the opportunity for a repeat effort against an undersized Atlanta front four on Saturday night. The Falcons served up 4.63 yards per rushing attempt during the regular season -- the sixth worst mark in football.
When the Falcons Have the Ball
The Falcons run a ball-control offense. Atlanta ranked fifth in the NFL in regular season rushing attempts, and just 25th in yards per throw. Quarterback Matt Ryan's job is to avoid turnovers and deliver completions to Atlanta's lone play-maker in the passing game -- NFL receptions leader Roddy White. Michael Turner is the offensive centerpiece, since Week 7 averaging 23 touches a game. Turner's stretch-run dip in production may be cause for concern, however. Whereas he averaged 4.82 yards per carry in Weeks 1-12, Turner plummeted to 2.67 with two fumbles in the final five games. Ideally for the Falcons, a first-round playoff bye helped Turner get his legs back.
In addition to Turner's production slip, tight end Tony Gonzalez's worst statistical season in 12 years was a key story buried beneath 13 Falcons wins. Turning 35 next month, Gonzalez struggles to create separation, and his regular season yards-per-reception average of 9.37 was easily a career low. While Gonzo remains Ryan's top red-zone target, he won't force Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers' hand as much as the future Hall of Famer would have in years past. On paper at least, the Packers project to give the Falcons more matchup problems than vice versa.
Coaches
Mike Smith has compiled a 33-15 record in three regular seasons as Falcons coach, but lost his only previous playoff game 30-24 to the Cardinals two Januaries ago. Smith did run the defense for a 2007 Jaguars team that advanced to the divisional round. Overall as a head coach and coordinator, however, Smith is 1-3 in the postseason and has been outscored by a margin of 89-59 in the losses.
Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy improved his postseason record to 2-2 in last weekend's win over Philadelphia. 1.5-point underdogs in the wild-card round, the Packers are again projected to lose by the Vegas oddsmakers. The margin given this week is 2.5 points. McCarthy is 50-34 all time as Packers head coach, including the playoffs.
X-factors
Jordy Nelson
The Packers have a tendency to increase Nelson's snaps at the expense of James Jones in weeks following Jones' all-too-common gaffes, and his embarrassing drop in Philadelphia may necessitate more action for Nelson against the Falcons. Nelson caught all five of his pass targets for 61 yards and a score in Green Bay's Week 12 loss to Atlanta. He did a terrific job to keep the play alive on his 10-yard touchdown catch in that game, hauling in an absolute rocket from Aaron Rodgers after out-running Falcons free safety Thomas DeCoud to the left corner of the end zone.
Michael Jenkins
Jenkins' greatest strength is his downfield blocking ability, but the Falcons are going to need more from him on Saturday night. With Packers top cover corner Tramon Williams likely on Roddy White and Charles Woodson seeing his fair share of Tony Gonzalez, Jenkins could find himself one-on-one with undrafted rookie Sam Shields for much of the divisional round. While Shields has been a real find for Green Bay GM Ted Thompson, he gives up five inches and over 30 pounds to Jenkins. In order for the Falcons to beat the Packers, Jenkins must win this matchup.
Prediction: Packers 27, Falcons 20
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1:00 ET Sunday: Seahawks @ Bears
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
Matt Hasselbeck turned in a season-best game in last week's upset of New Orleans, but the Seahawks' 35-year-old quarterback no longer has coverage-challenged Saints safety Roman Harper to pick apart. The Bears field one of the league's top safety duos in Danieal Manning and Chris Harris, who helped Chicago finish in the top five in regular season interceptions, but bottom five in touchdown passes allowed. Seahawks receiver Mike Williams dominated Bears corner Charles Tillman for many of his 10 catches and 123 yards in the teams' Week 6 meeting, but coach Lovie Smith indicated this week that stopping Williams is the focus of Chicago's defensive approach. To pull off a second straight mammoth upset, it's going to require another genius game plan from Seahawks offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates. The Bears are 10-point favorites.
Like Hasselbeck, tailback Marshawn Lynch is unlikely to pull off another heroic effort in the wake of his 67-yard Run of the Year against New Orleans. After playing the divisional round at home, the Seahawks travel to Soldier Field to face a Bears defense that got last week off and ranked No. 2 against the run in 2010. In eight away games this season, Lynch is averaging a putrid 2.78 yards per carry. The Bears have also forced a league-high 15 fumbles by opposing rushers. Lynch has had ball security issues as a Seahawk, fumbling four times this season and losing all four.
When the Bears Have the Ball
With coordinator Mike Martz reining in his offense during the season's second half, quarterback Jay Cutler hasn't cleared 250 passing yards in the last ten weeks. Running back Matt Forte has overtaken Cutler as Chicago's most valuable skill player, touching the ball 20 times a game since Week 9, and peeling off 5.77 yards per carry in the last month and a half. The Seahawks ranked 21st against the run during the regular season, so Forte should continue to impose his will on Sunday afternoon. Seattle allowed Saints backs to total 192 yards and three TDs last weekend.
The Bears will still use the run to set up deep shots, and Seattle remains vulnerable to the passing game. Saints quarterback Drew Brees racked up 404 yards and two TDs in the wild-card round, despite Seattle frequently dropping seven or eight defenders into coverage and getting pressure from its front four. Because the Bears will have more rushing success than the Saints did, the Seahawks simply won't be able to play the same sort of style. Keep in mind that Chicago No. 1 receiver Johnny Knox had his best game of the season against Seattle in Week 6 (five catches, 120 yards).
Coaches
O.K., so maybe the "Twelfth Man" thing was for real. Seattle first-year coach Pete Carroll's team is 6-3 at home this season, but 2-6 in away games. The Seahawks go on the road for this one, of course, which stacks the odds against them.
Lovie Smith is in his seventh season as Bears coach. This is his first playoff berth since winning the NFC title during the 2006-2007 season, which ended against the Colts in the Super Bowl. All told, Smith is 2-2 in postseason games. He was one-and-done in his only other trip (2005).
X-factors
Olindo Mare
Like the rest of the Seahawks, Mare's home and away splits are lopsided. He's nailed 14-of-15 field goals with 11 touchbacks at Qwest Fiekl, but is just 11-of-15 with eight touchbacks in away games. In all likelihood, the Seahawks will need a perfect day from Mare to keep this game close. Mare's fellow specialist, punter Jon Ryan, will also be charged with keeping game-changing Bears returner Devin Hester at bay with directional punting. Hester led the league in regular season punt returns for touchdowns, punt return average, and punt returns of 20-plus yards.
Earl Bennett
As tight end Greg Olsen has taken a backseat in coordinator Mike Martz's offense, Bennett has leaped forward as the No. 2 wideout on the Bears. A slot receiver with great hands and a knack for finding soft spots in zone defenses, Bennett didn't drop a pass all season while unseating Devin Hester and Devin Aromashodu on the depth chart down the stretch. The Seahawks were willing to give up short passes over the middle in last week's win, and that's where Bennett does most of his work. 100 percent after a late-season ankle injury, Bennett will be a chain mover on Sunday.
Prediction: Bears 20, Seahawks 10
4:30 ET Sunday: Jets @ Patriots
When the Patriots Have the Ball
The Pats finished the regular season ranked first in both points scored and turnover differential, each by a wide margin. Quarterback Tom Brady compiled an NFL-best touchdown-to-turnover ratio of 37:5, and hasn't thrown an interception since Week 6. In the Pats' Week 13 matchup with these same Jets, Brady completed 72.4 percent of his 29 pass attempts for 326 yards and four touchdowns. Brady dominated that game with quick-outs that allowed his receivers to rack up yards after the catch. Slot receiver Wes Welker caught seven passes for 80 yards and a touchdown, passing-down back Danny Woodhead led New England with 104 receiving yards, and Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, and Brandon Tate all found the end zone in the 45-3 blowout.
Usually pass-happy in the red zone, the Patriots have discovered a true finisher at tailback in former undrafted free agent BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Nicknamed "Law Firm" because of his lengthy, hyphenated name, Green-Ellis scored 13 regular season touchdowns, including two in Week 13. Closing particularly strong, the north/south-running power back averaged 4.65 yards per carry from Week 8 on. The Jets have one of the top run defenses in football, but their primary focus will be to stop Brady. Green-Ellis won't face any eight-man fronts on Sunday.
When the Jets Have the Ball
The Jets' loss of mauling right tackle Damien Woody to a torn Achilles' tendon this week is cause for major concern. Woody was New York's best run blocker, and wasn't a liability in pass protection. Look for Patriots coach Bill Belichick, the NFL's preeminent game planner, to attack backup right tackle Wayne Hunter. A seven-year veteran, Hunter has just five career starts and struggled mightily while filling in for Woody in the final four regular season games. It's especially worrisome for rotating Jets tailbacks LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene. They won't have nearly as much daylight on power runs to the strong side.
The Patriots are most vulnerable in the secondary, so the Jets must have improved performance from Mark Sanchez to keep pace with New England's scoring. It's just becoming difficult to have confidence in the second-year Jets quarterback. Completing a miserable 55.0 percent of his passes on the season, Sanchez has thrown one touchdown pass compared to seven turnovers in the last month and a half. It doesn't help that Santonio Holmes appears to be playing at less than 100 percent. After battling late-season turf toe, Holmes is on this week's injury report with a quadricep ailment. He had a crucial drop in last week's win over Indianapolis.
Coaches
Just four coaches in NFL history have more postseason wins than New England's Bill Belichick, and he can tie Don Shula for second most all time by running the table this year. Belichick's .750 win percentage is second to only Vince Lombardi among coaches with at least five postseason appearances. Head to head against Rex Ryan, however, Belichick splits the series at 2-2.
The Jets lost their last matchup with the Pats 45-3, so there was no good reason for all their trash talk this week. It's understandable coming from coach Rex Ryan -- he was trying to take pressure off his players -- but Antonio Cromartie's swipes at Tom Brady only stand to fuel Tom Terrific's fire. It's also an indication that Ryan doesn't have total control of his locker room. Ryan will have to send plenty of safety help to Cromartie's side of the field, because Brady will attack the lesser of New York's cornerback duo early and often.
X-factors
Jerricho Cotchery
Cotchery has been a non-factor since losing his starting job to Santonio Holmes in Week 5. Dealt with injuries and reduced playing time, Cotchery is coming off his least productive regular season in six years while averaging a career-low 10.56 yards per catch. Where he can make a difference is in the punt return game. Cotchery showed he's back to full speed on a 15-yard return in the wild card round, and he had another 15-yarder in Week 17. The Jets' offense is likely to struggle, so they'll need all the special teams and field-position help they can get.
Danny Woodhead
The Pats don't have a true No. 1 receiver for Darrelle Revis to "shadow" all over the field, which makes the New England offense even more difficult for the Jets to defend. While Revis will likely move around the formation and see time against Wes Welker, Deion Branch, and even tight end Rob Gronkowski, Woodhead is one Patriot we know the shutdown cornerback won't be covering. Medically cleared after a Week 17 concussion, Woodhead racked up 104 yards on four catches against the Jets six weeks ago, and is averaging nearly six yards per carry. He'll get the ball 10-12 times Sunday night and give the slow Jets linebackers fits in open space.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Jets 17
Dynasty Ranks: Running Backs
Tier One
1. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL], Vikings
2. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL], Titans
3. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
The three most uniquely talented backs in the NFL. All three of them can produce RB1 fantasy numbers regardless of coaches, scheme, or even supporting cast. CJ2K is a fantastic buy this offseason. … Charles proved to be the best player on the field against the Ravens in the Wild Card round loss. That comes as no surprise to anybody who has watched him play on a regular basis the past two seasons.
Tier Two
4. Arian Foster, Texans
5. Ray Rice, Ravens
6. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
7. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
8. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
9. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
10. Darren McFadden, Raiders
Foster emerged as one of the premier all-around tailback talents in the league. Though his success is not merely a byproduct of Houston's zone-blocking scheme, there's no question that he's ideally suited to Gary Kubiak's offense. … Like [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL], Rice is an outstanding buy this offseason. Despite a dramatic dropoff in run blocking (and heavy does of bad luck), Rice still finished third in the league in total yards. The touchdowns are coming.
Jones-Drew belongs in the top tier on talent alone, but the knee is cause for pause. Meniscus surgery isn't automatic. Just ask Antonio Bryant and Torry Holt. … Stewart is one of the handful of most talented backs in the NFL, and we'll see that on a regular basis if the Panthers move on from free agent De[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=6307"]Angelo Williams[/URL]. … McCoy benefits from playing with Michael Vick. He also proved more than capable of filling the Brian Westbrook role. … Mendenhall doesn't wow onlookers, but he does everything well as the workhorse for one of the league's steadiest franchises. … McFadden would be at least three spots higher if we could count on him to play 16 games a year.
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Tier Three
11. Matt Forte, Bears
12. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
13. Jahvid Best, Lions
14. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
15. Frank Gore, 49ers
16. De[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=6307"]Angelo Williams[/URL], Panthers / Free Agent
17. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants / Free Agent
18. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4428"]Steven Jackson[/URL], Rams
Forte was so overvalued after his rookie season that many owners still don't trust him despite a second top-ten fantasy finish in three years. Over the final six weeks, he was fifth in yards-per-carry and third in total yards. … One of the few every-down backs in the NFL, Moreno is a top-10 fantasy back if he can make it through 16 games without injury.
Best and Mathews are ahead of Gore, Williams, and S-Jax purely due to the age factor. Running backs spring a leak at age 28 and the value seeps out slowly until the toe hits the cliff. It's the lay of the land. … D-Will could resume RB1 value depending on where he lands. … It looks like all of the hits and heavy workloads are starting to catch up with S-Jax. … Bradshaw will be ranked higher on most list. I just don't trust him to stick in the feature back role long-term considering his injury history. I'm not alone, either. His own offensive coordinator has admitted concern that Bradshaw won't continue to hold up to the workload considering his aggressive style and chronic feet/ankle injuries.
Tier Four
19. Peyton Hillis, Browns
20. Felix Jones, Cowboys
21. LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers
22. Michael Turner, Falcons
23. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
24. Shonn Greene, Jets
25. C.J. Spiller, Bills
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
Hillis' late-season fade is a slight concern, and he lost a guaranteed heavy workload when Eric Mangini walked out the door. I think he's overvalued heading into 2011. … Among feature backs, Felix remains one of the biggest injury risks. … Turner owners can't deal him for anything close to fair value right now. He lost a step this year.
I still believe in Beanie's second-tier talent, but he has to prove that he can fight through injuries while remaining effective. … I see Blount as a long-term committee back. … Spiller's talent is tempting, but I've never believed he could run between the tackles. … Lawfirm had plenty of value in 2010, but that doesn't mean he's the Patriots' running back of the future. It wouldn't be a surprise if Belichick opts for backfield competition this offseason.
Tier Five
27. Pierre Thomas, Saints / Free Agent
28. Fred Jackson, Bills
29. Ryan Grant, Packers
30. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
31. Cedric Benson, Bengals / Free Agent
32. Michael Bush, Raiders / Free Agent
33. Chris Ivory, Saints
34. James Starks, Packers
35. Tashard Choice, Cowboys
I think Thomas will return to New Orleans to split touches with an injury-prone Ivory. … F-Jax may have another year of RB2 value while the Bills feel out Spiller to see if he pick up pass blocking and learn not to bounce all of his runs outside. … Lynch's beast-mode touchdown run against doesn't change the fact that he's a mediocre player.
Starks' performance against the Falcons bears watching, but I still think Grant is the favorite to enter 2011 as the starter. … Choice remains a high-upside stash. … Benson and Bush owners are crossing their fingers and hoping for a dream landing spot.
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Tier Six
36. Ryan Torain, Redskins
37. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins / Free Agent
38. Joseph Addai, Colts / Free Agent
39. Donald Brown, Colts
40. Bernard Scott, Bengals
41. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
42. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
43. Mike Tolbert, Chargers
44. Rashad Jennings, Jaguars
45. Reggie Bush, Saints
I have no confidence in Torain staying healthy and productive for a full season. … Brown could enjoy a bounce-back season getting out from behind the Dolphins' anemic offensive line. … The Colts almost have to bring Addai back because Brown has given them no reason to trust him. "Damnit Donald" is a negative play waiting to happen.
Scott will be paired with a bigger back if Benson signs elsewhere. … Gerhart, Tolbert, and Jennings are the best of the backups. … Bush is a brittle passing-down specialist.
Tier Seven
46. Ben Tate, Texans
47. Montario Hardesty, Browns
48. Mike Goodson, Panthers
49. Willis McGahee, Ravens / Free Agent*
50. Brandon Jacobs, Giants / Free Agent
51. Tim Hightower, Cardinals
52. Marion Barber, Cowboys / Free Agent*
53. LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
54. Deji Karim, Jaguars
55. Anthony Dixon, 49ers
56. Brian Westbrook, 49ers / Free Agent
Tate and Hardesty lost out on prime opportunities last summer. They'll enter the 2011 season as handcuffs, though Hardesty could work his way into a committee attack with Peyton Hillis. … McGahee won't be back with the Ravens. There's a slim chance he or Jacobs could fall into a starting job for a season or two. … Hightower is a middling talent best used as a role player. Tomlinson and Westbrook could each have another season of flex value.
Tier Eight
57. Jerome Harrison, Eagles / Free Agent
58. Darren Sproles, Chargers / Free Agent
59. Jason Snelling, Falcons / Free Agent
60. ****** Forsett, Seahawks
61. Joe McKnight, Jets
62. Steve Slaton, Texans
63. Kevin Smith, Lions / Restricted Free Agent
64. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL], Dolphins / Free Agent*
65. Derrick Ward, Texans / Free Agent
66. Clinton Portis, Redskins / Free Agent*
67. Thomas Jones, Chiefs
68. Jerious Norwood, Falcons / Free Agent
69. Leon Washington, Seahawks / Free Agent
70. Laurence Maroney, Broncos / Free Agent
Most of the free agents will remain pure backups or change-of-pace options in 2011, though one or two could hit the lottery behind an injury-prone starter in a dynamic offense.
Tier Nine
71. Javon Ringer, Titans
72. Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers
73. Marcel Reece, Raiders
74. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers / Free Agent
75. Tyrell Sutton, Panthers
76. Isaac Redman, Steelers
77. Le'Ron McClain, Ravens
78. Jalen Parmele, Ravens
79. Chester Taylor, Bears
80. Danny Ware, Giants / Free Agent
81. Mike Bell, Browns / Free Agent
82. Kareem Huggins, Buccaneers
83. Mike Hart, Colts
84. Joique Bell, Saints
85. Julius Jones, Saints / Free Agent
86. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=5173"]James Davis[/URL], Redskins
87. Keiland Williams, Redskins
88. Maurice Morris, Lions
89. Brandon Jackson, Packers
90. LaRod Stephens-Howling, Cardinals
www.therx.ws
Handcuffs, tweeners, and stiffs. Reece is an interesting case if the Raiders move him into the Michael Bush role in 2011. He's the most athletically gifted fullback I've ever seen.
Tier One
1. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL], Vikings
2. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL], Titans
3. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
The three most uniquely talented backs in the NFL. All three of them can produce RB1 fantasy numbers regardless of coaches, scheme, or even supporting cast. CJ2K is a fantastic buy this offseason. … Charles proved to be the best player on the field against the Ravens in the Wild Card round loss. That comes as no surprise to anybody who has watched him play on a regular basis the past two seasons.
Tier Two
4. Arian Foster, Texans
5. Ray Rice, Ravens
6. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
7. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
8. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
9. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
10. Darren McFadden, Raiders
Foster emerged as one of the premier all-around tailback talents in the league. Though his success is not merely a byproduct of Houston's zone-blocking scheme, there's no question that he's ideally suited to Gary Kubiak's offense. … Like [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL], Rice is an outstanding buy this offseason. Despite a dramatic dropoff in run blocking (and heavy does of bad luck), Rice still finished third in the league in total yards. The touchdowns are coming.
Jones-Drew belongs in the top tier on talent alone, but the knee is cause for pause. Meniscus surgery isn't automatic. Just ask Antonio Bryant and Torry Holt. … Stewart is one of the handful of most talented backs in the NFL, and we'll see that on a regular basis if the Panthers move on from free agent De[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=6307"]Angelo Williams[/URL]. … McCoy benefits from playing with Michael Vick. He also proved more than capable of filling the Brian Westbrook role. … Mendenhall doesn't wow onlookers, but he does everything well as the workhorse for one of the league's steadiest franchises. … McFadden would be at least three spots higher if we could count on him to play 16 games a year.
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Tier Three
11. Matt Forte, Bears
12. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
13. Jahvid Best, Lions
14. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
15. Frank Gore, 49ers
16. De[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=6307"]Angelo Williams[/URL], Panthers / Free Agent
17. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants / Free Agent
18. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4428"]Steven Jackson[/URL], Rams
Forte was so overvalued after his rookie season that many owners still don't trust him despite a second top-ten fantasy finish in three years. Over the final six weeks, he was fifth in yards-per-carry and third in total yards. … One of the few every-down backs in the NFL, Moreno is a top-10 fantasy back if he can make it through 16 games without injury.
Best and Mathews are ahead of Gore, Williams, and S-Jax purely due to the age factor. Running backs spring a leak at age 28 and the value seeps out slowly until the toe hits the cliff. It's the lay of the land. … D-Will could resume RB1 value depending on where he lands. … It looks like all of the hits and heavy workloads are starting to catch up with S-Jax. … Bradshaw will be ranked higher on most list. I just don't trust him to stick in the feature back role long-term considering his injury history. I'm not alone, either. His own offensive coordinator has admitted concern that Bradshaw won't continue to hold up to the workload considering his aggressive style and chronic feet/ankle injuries.
Tier Four
19. Peyton Hillis, Browns
20. Felix Jones, Cowboys
21. LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers
22. Michael Turner, Falcons
23. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
24. Shonn Greene, Jets
25. C.J. Spiller, Bills
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
Hillis' late-season fade is a slight concern, and he lost a guaranteed heavy workload when Eric Mangini walked out the door. I think he's overvalued heading into 2011. … Among feature backs, Felix remains one of the biggest injury risks. … Turner owners can't deal him for anything close to fair value right now. He lost a step this year.
I still believe in Beanie's second-tier talent, but he has to prove that he can fight through injuries while remaining effective. … I see Blount as a long-term committee back. … Spiller's talent is tempting, but I've never believed he could run between the tackles. … Lawfirm had plenty of value in 2010, but that doesn't mean he's the Patriots' running back of the future. It wouldn't be a surprise if Belichick opts for backfield competition this offseason.
Tier Five
27. Pierre Thomas, Saints / Free Agent
28. Fred Jackson, Bills
29. Ryan Grant, Packers
30. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
31. Cedric Benson, Bengals / Free Agent
32. Michael Bush, Raiders / Free Agent
33. Chris Ivory, Saints
34. James Starks, Packers
35. Tashard Choice, Cowboys
I think Thomas will return to New Orleans to split touches with an injury-prone Ivory. … F-Jax may have another year of RB2 value while the Bills feel out Spiller to see if he pick up pass blocking and learn not to bounce all of his runs outside. … Lynch's beast-mode touchdown run against doesn't change the fact that he's a mediocre player.
Starks' performance against the Falcons bears watching, but I still think Grant is the favorite to enter 2011 as the starter. … Choice remains a high-upside stash. … Benson and Bush owners are crossing their fingers and hoping for a dream landing spot.
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Tier Six
36. Ryan Torain, Redskins
37. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins / Free Agent
38. Joseph Addai, Colts / Free Agent
39. Donald Brown, Colts
40. Bernard Scott, Bengals
41. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
42. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
43. Mike Tolbert, Chargers
44. Rashad Jennings, Jaguars
45. Reggie Bush, Saints
I have no confidence in Torain staying healthy and productive for a full season. … Brown could enjoy a bounce-back season getting out from behind the Dolphins' anemic offensive line. … The Colts almost have to bring Addai back because Brown has given them no reason to trust him. "Damnit Donald" is a negative play waiting to happen.
Scott will be paired with a bigger back if Benson signs elsewhere. … Gerhart, Tolbert, and Jennings are the best of the backups. … Bush is a brittle passing-down specialist.
Tier Seven
46. Ben Tate, Texans
47. Montario Hardesty, Browns
48. Mike Goodson, Panthers
49. Willis McGahee, Ravens / Free Agent*
50. Brandon Jacobs, Giants / Free Agent
51. Tim Hightower, Cardinals
52. Marion Barber, Cowboys / Free Agent*
53. LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
54. Deji Karim, Jaguars
55. Anthony Dixon, 49ers
56. Brian Westbrook, 49ers / Free Agent
Tate and Hardesty lost out on prime opportunities last summer. They'll enter the 2011 season as handcuffs, though Hardesty could work his way into a committee attack with Peyton Hillis. … McGahee won't be back with the Ravens. There's a slim chance he or Jacobs could fall into a starting job for a season or two. … Hightower is a middling talent best used as a role player. Tomlinson and Westbrook could each have another season of flex value.
Tier Eight
57. Jerome Harrison, Eagles / Free Agent
58. Darren Sproles, Chargers / Free Agent
59. Jason Snelling, Falcons / Free Agent
60. ****** Forsett, Seahawks
61. Joe McKnight, Jets
62. Steve Slaton, Texans
63. Kevin Smith, Lions / Restricted Free Agent
64. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL], Dolphins / Free Agent*
65. Derrick Ward, Texans / Free Agent
66. Clinton Portis, Redskins / Free Agent*
67. Thomas Jones, Chiefs
68. Jerious Norwood, Falcons / Free Agent
69. Leon Washington, Seahawks / Free Agent
70. Laurence Maroney, Broncos / Free Agent
Most of the free agents will remain pure backups or change-of-pace options in 2011, though one or two could hit the lottery behind an injury-prone starter in a dynamic offense.
Tier Nine
71. Javon Ringer, Titans
72. Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers
73. Marcel Reece, Raiders
74. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers / Free Agent
75. Tyrell Sutton, Panthers
76. Isaac Redman, Steelers
77. Le'Ron McClain, Ravens
78. Jalen Parmele, Ravens
79. Chester Taylor, Bears
80. Danny Ware, Giants / Free Agent
81. Mike Bell, Browns / Free Agent
82. Kareem Huggins, Buccaneers
83. Mike Hart, Colts
84. Joique Bell, Saints
85. Julius Jones, Saints / Free Agent
86. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=5173"]James Davis[/URL], Redskins
87. Keiland Williams, Redskins
88. Maurice Morris, Lions
89. Brandon Jackson, Packers
90. LaRod Stephens-Howling, Cardinals
www.therx.ws
Handcuffs, tweeners, and stiffs. Reece is an interesting case if the Raiders move him into the Michael Bush role in 2011. He's the most athletically gifted fullback I've ever seen.
Juicy storylines in Final Four
I wrote two weeks ago that this year's NFL tournament was even more wide open than usual. Since then, we've seen a team with a losing record beat the defending Super Bowl champs, and watched both No. 1 seeds get knocked out.
Now that the shock of the Jets' impressive win in Foxboro has worn off, it's time to look ahead to this week's biggest storylines. At this point, seeing two No. 6 seeds face off in the Super Bowl wouldn't really surprise anyone.
AFC Championship: Jets/Steelers
Surprising reasons for optimism
Is the 2009 Jets defense back?
Jets defense was good, not great in the regular season. The rest of the league appeared to have figured out the Jets' blitz schemes and the Jets couldn't get consistent pressure on the quarterback or make big plays.
Rex Ryan has changed all that by backing off during the playoffs. They held Peyton Manning to 16 points, and confused Tom Brady for four quarters. They Jets have got back to what they did best in 2009: play lockdown pass coverage. They've done it by mixing up coverages and dropping defenders off the line of scrimmage.
Rex Ryan is the anti Billy Beane right now. His stuff works better in the playoffs.
The young Steelers wide receivers come of age
Unheralded young Steelers wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown outplayed Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason in the Divisional Round. Throw in Mike Wallace, who may be the best receiver under 25 years in the NFL, and the Steelers can present a lot of problems for the Jets.
New York locked down the Patriots, but New England doesn't have the speed Pittsburgh possesses. Darrelle Revis will be tested by Wallace, while Sanders and Brown can work on New York's secondary depth. These kids could make the Pittsburgh faithful forget all about Santonio Holmes.
Causes for concern
Sanchez faces toughest test yet
The Jets' second year quarterback was erratic against the Colts, but a strong second half was enough to win. Sanchez misfired early against the Patriots, but he made enough big plays with the help of his talented wide receivers to win in New England.
Pittsburgh's defense won't be as forgiving. The wide receivers won't get as much separation, and the pass rush pressure will be more consistent. The Jets are a good reminder that football is a team game; it's not all about the quarterbacks. Still, something tells me Sanchez will need to play even better for the Jets to reach Dallas.
The Steelers offensive line tries to hold on
By the end of Saturday's game against the Ravens, the Steelers had no offensive linemen left to turn to. Guards were at tackle, backups were at guard, and the Steelers still held it together long enough for a game-winning touchdown drive.
Pittsburgh could get back some of their injured players against the Jets, but that's no guarantee. The 2008 Steelers proved that you don't need a great line to win a Super Bowl. You do need five players healthy enough to suit up and know their assignments.
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Bears vs. Packers
Surprising reasons for optimism
Mike McCarthy is on a roll
Packers coach Mike McCarthy has been a punching bag for overwrought Packers fans for years because of his play-calling and game-management skills. He's still prone to a shaky decision – not going for points at the end of the first half against Philly comes to mind -- but McCarthy is on fire as a play-caller.
McCarthy's hot streak really started in a loss. He dialed up the plays for backup quarterback Matt Flynn in a near-upset in Foxboro. Defenses have been guessing ever since and they rarely guess right.
Bears offensive line coming together
Chicago's offensive line looked downright competent towards the end of the season and especially in their Divisional Round win over the Seahawks. The Bears have pass protected well and have shown they can open up holes in the running game. This is a different group than the first half of the season.
Chicago will want to shorten the game Sunday with a lot of runs by Matt Forte and Chester Taylor. If the Packers have a weakness, they could be a little soft up the middle against the run. Expect the Bears to find more success on the ground than Atlanta did.
Causes for concern
Familiarity may help Bears defense
It's hard to find many causes for concern for the Packers with the way Aaron Rodgers is playing, but I'll try: The Bears defense clearly gives him problems.
The Packers only scored 24 points in two games against Chicago. They averaged only 62 yards on the groun in those games. It's going to be tough sledding for James Starks in Chicago and it's hard to imagine the Packers truly having "balance" on offense. Green Bay's running backs only averaged three yards-per-carry against Atlanta. The Bears defense also knows how to limit big passing plays.
Sure, you can say familiarity goes both ways. But the Bears defense isn't about disguise; they've been doing the same thing for five years. They are as equipped as any team to slow Rodgers down.
Will Bad Jay show up?
Jay Cutler is going to throw a handful of "loose" passes every game. The Seahawks dropped Cutler's brain farts in the Divisional Round, but Cutler can't expect to be so lucky against the Packers.
Green Bay's secondary is full of cornerbacks that know how to make plays on the ball. More importantly, defensive coordinator Dom Capers' crew is capable of confusing Cutler.
Cutler's mistakes aren't usually physical. He's one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, but doesn't always see the field before he throws. The Packers will try to show him different looks in hopes of making Bad Jay come out early and often.
I wrote two weeks ago that this year's NFL tournament was even more wide open than usual. Since then, we've seen a team with a losing record beat the defending Super Bowl champs, and watched both No. 1 seeds get knocked out.
Now that the shock of the Jets' impressive win in Foxboro has worn off, it's time to look ahead to this week's biggest storylines. At this point, seeing two No. 6 seeds face off in the Super Bowl wouldn't really surprise anyone.
AFC Championship: Jets/Steelers
Surprising reasons for optimism
Is the 2009 Jets defense back?
Jets defense was good, not great in the regular season. The rest of the league appeared to have figured out the Jets' blitz schemes and the Jets couldn't get consistent pressure on the quarterback or make big plays.
Rex Ryan has changed all that by backing off during the playoffs. They held Peyton Manning to 16 points, and confused Tom Brady for four quarters. They Jets have got back to what they did best in 2009: play lockdown pass coverage. They've done it by mixing up coverages and dropping defenders off the line of scrimmage.
Rex Ryan is the anti Billy Beane right now. His stuff works better in the playoffs.
The young Steelers wide receivers come of age
Unheralded young Steelers wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown outplayed Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason in the Divisional Round. Throw in Mike Wallace, who may be the best receiver under 25 years in the NFL, and the Steelers can present a lot of problems for the Jets.
New York locked down the Patriots, but New England doesn't have the speed Pittsburgh possesses. Darrelle Revis will be tested by Wallace, while Sanders and Brown can work on New York's secondary depth. These kids could make the Pittsburgh faithful forget all about Santonio Holmes.
Causes for concern
Sanchez faces toughest test yet
The Jets' second year quarterback was erratic against the Colts, but a strong second half was enough to win. Sanchez misfired early against the Patriots, but he made enough big plays with the help of his talented wide receivers to win in New England.
Pittsburgh's defense won't be as forgiving. The wide receivers won't get as much separation, and the pass rush pressure will be more consistent. The Jets are a good reminder that football is a team game; it's not all about the quarterbacks. Still, something tells me Sanchez will need to play even better for the Jets to reach Dallas.
The Steelers offensive line tries to hold on
By the end of Saturday's game against the Ravens, the Steelers had no offensive linemen left to turn to. Guards were at tackle, backups were at guard, and the Steelers still held it together long enough for a game-winning touchdown drive.
Pittsburgh could get back some of their injured players against the Jets, but that's no guarantee. The 2008 Steelers proved that you don't need a great line to win a Super Bowl. You do need five players healthy enough to suit up and know their assignments.
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Bears vs. Packers
Surprising reasons for optimism
Mike McCarthy is on a roll
Packers coach Mike McCarthy has been a punching bag for overwrought Packers fans for years because of his play-calling and game-management skills. He's still prone to a shaky decision – not going for points at the end of the first half against Philly comes to mind -- but McCarthy is on fire as a play-caller.
McCarthy's hot streak really started in a loss. He dialed up the plays for backup quarterback Matt Flynn in a near-upset in Foxboro. Defenses have been guessing ever since and they rarely guess right.
Bears offensive line coming together
Chicago's offensive line looked downright competent towards the end of the season and especially in their Divisional Round win over the Seahawks. The Bears have pass protected well and have shown they can open up holes in the running game. This is a different group than the first half of the season.
Chicago will want to shorten the game Sunday with a lot of runs by Matt Forte and Chester Taylor. If the Packers have a weakness, they could be a little soft up the middle against the run. Expect the Bears to find more success on the ground than Atlanta did.
Causes for concern
Familiarity may help Bears defense
It's hard to find many causes for concern for the Packers with the way Aaron Rodgers is playing, but I'll try: The Bears defense clearly gives him problems.
The Packers only scored 24 points in two games against Chicago. They averaged only 62 yards on the groun in those games. It's going to be tough sledding for James Starks in Chicago and it's hard to imagine the Packers truly having "balance" on offense. Green Bay's running backs only averaged three yards-per-carry against Atlanta. The Bears defense also knows how to limit big passing plays.
Sure, you can say familiarity goes both ways. But the Bears defense isn't about disguise; they've been doing the same thing for five years. They are as equipped as any team to slow Rodgers down.
Will Bad Jay show up?
Jay Cutler is going to throw a handful of "loose" passes every game. The Seahawks dropped Cutler's brain farts in the Divisional Round, but Cutler can't expect to be so lucky against the Packers.
Green Bay's secondary is full of cornerbacks that know how to make plays on the ball. More importantly, defensive coordinator Dom Capers' crew is capable of confusing Cutler.
Cutler's mistakes aren't usually physical. He's one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, but doesn't always see the field before he throws. The Packers will try to show him different looks in hopes of making Bad Jay come out early and often.
Sophomore Sensation
It's impossible to overlook the impact that second-year wide receivers had on fantasy leagues this season. Despite relatively unimpressive rookie campaigns, six of them ranked in the top-25 at their position in year two. The proof:
Mike Wallace
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 27
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 5
Hakeem Nicks
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 28
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 8
Jeremy Maclin
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 39
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 13
Percy Harvin
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 24
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 20
Kenny Britt
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 47
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 22
Johnny Knox
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 54
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 24
The key for fantasy owners was not necessarily that these talented receivers broke out -- it's that their average draft position (ADP) was reasonable thanks to those mediocre rookie seasons. Of the group, Harvin had the highest ADP (per ESPN) at 58.3. Wallace, Maclin and Nicks went around the seventh round. Knox gained steam late in the draft season and ended up with an ADP of 108.4. Britt was a mere flier at 142.7.
That highlights a point I made back in this August 2009 column. Often, receivers that have great rookie years fail to duplicate that success in their sophomore seasons. They become overvalued in terms of ADP. Since 1993, 19 wide receivers have recorded 800 or more yards as a rookie. Of those, just six improved upon their rookie year production in terms of fantasy points.
The most recent examples were DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal, who both topped 800 yards as rookies in 2008. Jackson improved significantly as a sophomore, while Royal face-planted as one of the premier fantasy busts of the 2009 season. The trend does not bode well for Tampa's Mike Williams, who was the only rookie to top 800 receiving yards this season (more on him over on Pancake Blocks later this week).
Now, let's get back to those second-year receivers that weren't so great as rookies. The past is littered with players that made their move in year two. For example, here are fantasy's top-5 receivers from 2010. Only Dwayne Bowe topped 800 receiving yards as a rookie:
Brandon Lloyd
Rookie rank at WR: 97
Sophomore rank at WR: 47
Dwayne Bowe
Rookie rank at WR: 24
Sophomore rank at WR: 16
Roddy White
Rookie rank at WR: 64
Sophomore rank at WR: 80
Greg Jennings
Rookie rank at WR: 53
Sophomore rank at WR: 12
Calvin Johnson
Rookie rank at WR: 35
Sophomore rank at WR: 3
The point here is that we should not be waiting for that "year three breakout" everyone loves to talk about. The trend of talented receivers disappointing as rookies before busting out as sophomores is one that paid huge dividends in 2010 and with today's top receivers. With that in mind, here are some players that will fit the trend when next season rolls around:
<BIG>Dez Bryant</BIG>
Rookie rank at WR: 47
Bryant probably needs an asterisk next to his name because a fractured leg was the only thing that stopped him from going over 800 yards. Therefore, his ADP projects to be very high next season -- especially in aggressive, competent leagues. Still, it's not unreasonable to think that Bryant could end up as a top-10 fantasy receiver as soon as year two. His talent level is at least equal to Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace and Calvin Johnson -- players that made the big leap before him.
<BIG>Danario Alexander</BIG>
Rookie rank at WR: 99
Alexander has had multiple surgeries on his left knee and it showed. His snaps were limited as the Rams tried to ease him in, but toward the end of the year they couldn't help but target him often. With a full offseason of health, there is room for a major breakthrough here.
<BIG>Emmanuel Sanders</BIG>
Rookie rank at WR: 83
As Hines Ward falls further and further off the cliff, someone is going to have to step up opposite Mike Wallace. Although Sanders is a deep speed demon much like Wallace, the SMU product has shown excellent skills after the catch on screens and slants. He is already the clear No. 3 receiver heading into Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.
<BIG>Demaryius Thomas</BIG>
Rookie rank at WR: 24
There is reasonable concern here that Tim Tebow's raw passing game skills could limit the upside of the Broncos' receivers. But Thomas is a freakishly talented size/speed combo that will be a force once he puts it all together. Thomas will likely be had in the "flier" range of 2011 fantasy drafts, assuming little risk for owners.
It's impossible to overlook the impact that second-year wide receivers had on fantasy leagues this season. Despite relatively unimpressive rookie campaigns, six of them ranked in the top-25 at their position in year two. The proof:
Mike Wallace
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 27
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 5
Hakeem Nicks
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 28
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 8
Jeremy Maclin
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 39
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 13
Percy Harvin
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 24
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 20
Kenny Britt
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 47
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 22
Johnny Knox
2009 fantasy rank at WR: 54
2010 fantasy rank at WR: 24
The key for fantasy owners was not necessarily that these talented receivers broke out -- it's that their average draft position (ADP) was reasonable thanks to those mediocre rookie seasons. Of the group, Harvin had the highest ADP (per ESPN) at 58.3. Wallace, Maclin and Nicks went around the seventh round. Knox gained steam late in the draft season and ended up with an ADP of 108.4. Britt was a mere flier at 142.7.
That highlights a point I made back in this August 2009 column. Often, receivers that have great rookie years fail to duplicate that success in their sophomore seasons. They become overvalued in terms of ADP. Since 1993, 19 wide receivers have recorded 800 or more yards as a rookie. Of those, just six improved upon their rookie year production in terms of fantasy points.
The most recent examples were DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal, who both topped 800 yards as rookies in 2008. Jackson improved significantly as a sophomore, while Royal face-planted as one of the premier fantasy busts of the 2009 season. The trend does not bode well for Tampa's Mike Williams, who was the only rookie to top 800 receiving yards this season (more on him over on Pancake Blocks later this week).
Now, let's get back to those second-year receivers that weren't so great as rookies. The past is littered with players that made their move in year two. For example, here are fantasy's top-5 receivers from 2010. Only Dwayne Bowe topped 800 receiving yards as a rookie:
Brandon Lloyd
Rookie rank at WR: 97
Sophomore rank at WR: 47
Dwayne Bowe
Rookie rank at WR: 24
Sophomore rank at WR: 16
Roddy White
Rookie rank at WR: 64
Sophomore rank at WR: 80
Greg Jennings
Rookie rank at WR: 53
Sophomore rank at WR: 12
Calvin Johnson
Rookie rank at WR: 35
Sophomore rank at WR: 3
The point here is that we should not be waiting for that "year three breakout" everyone loves to talk about. The trend of talented receivers disappointing as rookies before busting out as sophomores is one that paid huge dividends in 2010 and with today's top receivers. With that in mind, here are some players that will fit the trend when next season rolls around:
<BIG>Dez Bryant</BIG>
Rookie rank at WR: 47
Bryant probably needs an asterisk next to his name because a fractured leg was the only thing that stopped him from going over 800 yards. Therefore, his ADP projects to be very high next season -- especially in aggressive, competent leagues. Still, it's not unreasonable to think that Bryant could end up as a top-10 fantasy receiver as soon as year two. His talent level is at least equal to Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace and Calvin Johnson -- players that made the big leap before him.
<BIG>Danario Alexander</BIG>
Rookie rank at WR: 99
Alexander has had multiple surgeries on his left knee and it showed. His snaps were limited as the Rams tried to ease him in, but toward the end of the year they couldn't help but target him often. With a full offseason of health, there is room for a major breakthrough here.
<BIG>Emmanuel Sanders</BIG>
Rookie rank at WR: 83
As Hines Ward falls further and further off the cliff, someone is going to have to step up opposite Mike Wallace. Although Sanders is a deep speed demon much like Wallace, the SMU product has shown excellent skills after the catch on screens and slants. He is already the clear No. 3 receiver heading into Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.
<BIG>Demaryius Thomas</BIG>
Rookie rank at WR: 24
There is reasonable concern here that Tim Tebow's raw passing game skills could limit the upside of the Broncos' receivers. But Thomas is a freakishly talented size/speed combo that will be a force once he puts it all together. Thomas will likely be had in the "flier" range of 2011 fantasy drafts, assuming little risk for owners.
Matchups: Conference Round
3:00 ET Sunday: Green Bay @ Chicago
When the Packers Have the Ball
A 28-14 halftime lead allowed Green Bay to reel off 31 divisional-round rushing attempts, but the Packers remain a pass-first team. Lethal since midseason, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has accounted for a 24:3 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his last nine games. He also had plenty of success throwing on Chicago during the regular season, completing 72.6 percent of his passes and averaging 7.47 yards per attempt in two games against the Bears. The Packers can't get too cute on Sunday. They're at their most dangerous with Rodgers ripping it in four- and five-receiver sets, and when the run game is only used as a change of pace.
Packers rookie tailback James Starks has been a postseason media darling, but he's unlikely to be a successful source of big plays in the NFC Championship. Coming off a divisional-round game in which he averaged just 2.64 yards per carry against Atlanta's No. 10 rush defense, Starks now faces a Bears team that ranks No. 2 in the league against the run and is serving up nearly a full yard less per rushing attempt than the Falcons. Despite a potentially snowy, chilly Soldier Field forecast, the Packers' coaching staff must resist the temptation to employ a balanced offense against the Bears. Just as they did to the Seahawks, the Monsters of the Midway will shut down Green Bay's ground game.
www.therx.ws
When the Bears Have the Ball
These longtime NFC North rivals split the regular season series, with quarterback Jay Cutler throwing two interceptions in the Bears' Week 17 loss compared to just one turnover as a team in Chicago's Week 3 win over the Pack. As usually is the case, key for the Bears will be Cutler's ability to avoid turnovers. Cutler is far less effective and more error-prone when pressured, so his protection will also have to have its best game of the season. The Packers led the NFC in regular season sacks and have tacked on another 11 in the playoffs -- the most of any team in January.
Running back Matt Forte continued his late-season tear in Chicago's divisional-round thumping of Seattle, tallying 80 yards rushing and 54 receiving. He has at least 98 total yards in four straight games, and seven of his last eight. The Packers failed to keep Forte bottled up in Week 17, as he averaged 6.1 yards on 15 carries and added a season-high eight receptions for 60 yards. Forte is the most versatile running back left in the playoffs. The Bears will be a safe bet to win if he gets the football 25-30 times on Sunday.
Coaches
Last week's win over the Falcons moved Packers coach Mike McCarthy's career playoff record to 3-2, and he's now won back-to-back postseason away games. Particularly in light of Green Bay's 10-3 win over these same Bears in the regular season finale, McCarthy's team should not be intimidated by playing Chicago on the road. The Packers have won four of their last six meetings with the Bears. One of the losses came by three points, and the other went to overtime.
Bears coach Lovie Smith is undefeated in three career playoff home games, winning them by a combined margin of 101-62. Smith's recent struggles against the Packers have to be on his mind, however, and are compounded by the fact that the Bears needlessly played their starters three weeks ago at Green Bay, and still lost. McCarthy has the coaching edge, head to head.
X-factors
Andrew Quarless
A fifth-round rookie from Penn State, Quarless was forced into a bigger role than expected when starting tight end Jermichael Finley suffered a year-ending knee injury in Week 4. While Quarless has been mostly quiet since, he's flashed athleticism in limited opportunities and could follow in the footsteps of James Starks and Jordy Nelson as the next "no-name" Packer with a big playoff game. In the regular season's final month and a half, the Bears gave up six catches per game and three touchdowns to tight ends. Chicago's Cover-2 zone can be vulnerable down the seam.
Johnny Knox
Knox had 96 yards in the Bears' Week 3 win over the Packers, and went catch-less in the Week 17 loss. It's no coincidence, as Knox is Chicago's lone deep threat. Green Bay will likely pay more attention to Greg Olsen and Kellen Davis after the tight ends' breakout game last week against Seattle, freeing up Knox for single coverage down the sideline. The Bears need a big play from their field stretcher to keep blitzing cornerback Charles Woodson from teeing off on Cutler.
Prediction: Packers 23, Bears 16
6:30 ET Sunday: NY Jets @ Pittsburgh
When the Jets Have the Ball
Much has been made of quarterback Mark Sanchez's 4-1 career playoff record, but the reality is he's not winning games with his passing. Sanchez hasn't completed more than 18 throws in any of the victories. New York's offense is dangerous only when the run game is clicking, and Sanchez is avoiding turnovers while making throws strictly to keep the chains moving. The Steelers held Sanchez to 5.86 yards per attempt and no passing touchdowns in Week 15 of the regular season. Sanchez's key stat in New York's 22-17 win was zero turnovers. His role is to avoid takeaways, keep his composure, and throw the ball away when the pass rush closes in.
The Jets can't reasonably expect LaDainian Tomlinson or Shonn Greene to top 70 or so rushing yards on Sunday. The Steelers have given up the fewest rushing yards in the league (62.8 per game), fewest yards per rush attempt (3.0), fewest rushing touchdowns (5), and fewest runs of 20-plus yards (1). The Jets can still generate ball movement by executing in short-yardage situations and keeping oft-overweight Steelers nose tackle Casey Hampton on the field for long stretches. Big running plays won't happen, but New York can win the trench war if Greene and Tomlinson fill the night with workmanlike three-, four-, and five-yard carries.
When the Steelers Have the Ball
The Jets wasted shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis on declining 34-year-old Hines Ward in Week 15 against the Steelers, and are unlikely to repeat the mistake. While New York outlasted Pittsburgh 22-17 in the aforementioned game, Rex Ryan's team was two late goal-line pass breakups away from losing. Look for Revis to shadow Mike Wallace on Sunday, meaning the Steelers will need more heroic efforts from rookies Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders and Brown combined for 129 yards in the divisional round, and this weekend will be matched up with burnable Jets reserve defensive backs Drew Coleman and Dwight Lowery.
Rashard Mendenhall has slowed down late in the season, averaging just 3.37 yards per carry in his last six games. Mendenhall's last big performance came against these same Jets, however, as the third-year back rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts. To say Mendenhall has the number of New York's top-three run defense would be too bold, but the Steelers appear to have a critical advantage when comparing ground games. Of the four teams left in the playoffs, the Jets have given up the most rushing yards, highest yards-per-carry average, and the most rushing attempts for first downs. Pittsburgh must have a big game from Mendenhall because Roethlisberger's offensive line has been a scrambled mess all season.
Coaches
The Jets' Rex Ryan and the Steelers' Mike Tomlin have squared off head to head just the one time, with Ryan coming out on top. All told, Ryan is 4-1 in playoff games, with all four wins coming on the road. Just keep in mind that Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is also 4-1 in his last four meetings with a Rex Ryan defense, dating back to Ryan's days as Ravens defensive coordinator..
Tomlin is also 4-1 in his postseason career, although he's lost at home before (2007, 31-29 to the Jaguars). Still, he hasn't lost a playoff game since. Including postseason games, Tomlin's career record stands at 47-22 (.681) in four seasons. Ryan's career record is 24-13 (.649). Neither coach has much bulletin board material after a relatively quiet week in terms of trash talk.
X-factors
Braylon Edwards
Edwards cleared 100 yards just once this season, and it happened to be against the Steelers in Week 15. Working often against Pittsburgh left cornerback Bryant McFadden, Edwards racked up eight catches and showed rare -- for him -- fearlessness over the middle. It is worth noting that the Steelers played that game without hard-hitting strong safety Troy Polamalu due to an Achilles' strain. The Jets need Edwards to continue to excel on crossing routes with Polamalu back in the lineup. Edwards has at least 52 yards in five straight games.
Heath Miller
The Steelers played Week 15 without Miller because of a concussion, and Ben Roethlisberger missed the tight end's red-zone presence on two fourth-quarter throws that were batted down at the goal line. Miller has at least four catches and a touchdown in each of his last two games. He'll also be a big factor as a "help" blocker in passing situations with the Steelers' front five reeling. Both of Pittsburgh's offensive tackles were lost to in-game injury in the divisional round.
Prediction: Steelers 17, Jets 10
3:00 ET Sunday: Green Bay @ Chicago
When the Packers Have the Ball
A 28-14 halftime lead allowed Green Bay to reel off 31 divisional-round rushing attempts, but the Packers remain a pass-first team. Lethal since midseason, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has accounted for a 24:3 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his last nine games. He also had plenty of success throwing on Chicago during the regular season, completing 72.6 percent of his passes and averaging 7.47 yards per attempt in two games against the Bears. The Packers can't get too cute on Sunday. They're at their most dangerous with Rodgers ripping it in four- and five-receiver sets, and when the run game is only used as a change of pace.
Packers rookie tailback James Starks has been a postseason media darling, but he's unlikely to be a successful source of big plays in the NFC Championship. Coming off a divisional-round game in which he averaged just 2.64 yards per carry against Atlanta's No. 10 rush defense, Starks now faces a Bears team that ranks No. 2 in the league against the run and is serving up nearly a full yard less per rushing attempt than the Falcons. Despite a potentially snowy, chilly Soldier Field forecast, the Packers' coaching staff must resist the temptation to employ a balanced offense against the Bears. Just as they did to the Seahawks, the Monsters of the Midway will shut down Green Bay's ground game.
www.therx.ws
When the Bears Have the Ball
These longtime NFC North rivals split the regular season series, with quarterback Jay Cutler throwing two interceptions in the Bears' Week 17 loss compared to just one turnover as a team in Chicago's Week 3 win over the Pack. As usually is the case, key for the Bears will be Cutler's ability to avoid turnovers. Cutler is far less effective and more error-prone when pressured, so his protection will also have to have its best game of the season. The Packers led the NFC in regular season sacks and have tacked on another 11 in the playoffs -- the most of any team in January.
Running back Matt Forte continued his late-season tear in Chicago's divisional-round thumping of Seattle, tallying 80 yards rushing and 54 receiving. He has at least 98 total yards in four straight games, and seven of his last eight. The Packers failed to keep Forte bottled up in Week 17, as he averaged 6.1 yards on 15 carries and added a season-high eight receptions for 60 yards. Forte is the most versatile running back left in the playoffs. The Bears will be a safe bet to win if he gets the football 25-30 times on Sunday.
Coaches
Last week's win over the Falcons moved Packers coach Mike McCarthy's career playoff record to 3-2, and he's now won back-to-back postseason away games. Particularly in light of Green Bay's 10-3 win over these same Bears in the regular season finale, McCarthy's team should not be intimidated by playing Chicago on the road. The Packers have won four of their last six meetings with the Bears. One of the losses came by three points, and the other went to overtime.
Bears coach Lovie Smith is undefeated in three career playoff home games, winning them by a combined margin of 101-62. Smith's recent struggles against the Packers have to be on his mind, however, and are compounded by the fact that the Bears needlessly played their starters three weeks ago at Green Bay, and still lost. McCarthy has the coaching edge, head to head.
X-factors
Andrew Quarless
A fifth-round rookie from Penn State, Quarless was forced into a bigger role than expected when starting tight end Jermichael Finley suffered a year-ending knee injury in Week 4. While Quarless has been mostly quiet since, he's flashed athleticism in limited opportunities and could follow in the footsteps of James Starks and Jordy Nelson as the next "no-name" Packer with a big playoff game. In the regular season's final month and a half, the Bears gave up six catches per game and three touchdowns to tight ends. Chicago's Cover-2 zone can be vulnerable down the seam.
Johnny Knox
Knox had 96 yards in the Bears' Week 3 win over the Packers, and went catch-less in the Week 17 loss. It's no coincidence, as Knox is Chicago's lone deep threat. Green Bay will likely pay more attention to Greg Olsen and Kellen Davis after the tight ends' breakout game last week against Seattle, freeing up Knox for single coverage down the sideline. The Bears need a big play from their field stretcher to keep blitzing cornerback Charles Woodson from teeing off on Cutler.
Prediction: Packers 23, Bears 16
6:30 ET Sunday: NY Jets @ Pittsburgh
When the Jets Have the Ball
Much has been made of quarterback Mark Sanchez's 4-1 career playoff record, but the reality is he's not winning games with his passing. Sanchez hasn't completed more than 18 throws in any of the victories. New York's offense is dangerous only when the run game is clicking, and Sanchez is avoiding turnovers while making throws strictly to keep the chains moving. The Steelers held Sanchez to 5.86 yards per attempt and no passing touchdowns in Week 15 of the regular season. Sanchez's key stat in New York's 22-17 win was zero turnovers. His role is to avoid takeaways, keep his composure, and throw the ball away when the pass rush closes in.
The Jets can't reasonably expect LaDainian Tomlinson or Shonn Greene to top 70 or so rushing yards on Sunday. The Steelers have given up the fewest rushing yards in the league (62.8 per game), fewest yards per rush attempt (3.0), fewest rushing touchdowns (5), and fewest runs of 20-plus yards (1). The Jets can still generate ball movement by executing in short-yardage situations and keeping oft-overweight Steelers nose tackle Casey Hampton on the field for long stretches. Big running plays won't happen, but New York can win the trench war if Greene and Tomlinson fill the night with workmanlike three-, four-, and five-yard carries.
When the Steelers Have the Ball
The Jets wasted shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis on declining 34-year-old Hines Ward in Week 15 against the Steelers, and are unlikely to repeat the mistake. While New York outlasted Pittsburgh 22-17 in the aforementioned game, Rex Ryan's team was two late goal-line pass breakups away from losing. Look for Revis to shadow Mike Wallace on Sunday, meaning the Steelers will need more heroic efforts from rookies Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders and Brown combined for 129 yards in the divisional round, and this weekend will be matched up with burnable Jets reserve defensive backs Drew Coleman and Dwight Lowery.
Rashard Mendenhall has slowed down late in the season, averaging just 3.37 yards per carry in his last six games. Mendenhall's last big performance came against these same Jets, however, as the third-year back rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts. To say Mendenhall has the number of New York's top-three run defense would be too bold, but the Steelers appear to have a critical advantage when comparing ground games. Of the four teams left in the playoffs, the Jets have given up the most rushing yards, highest yards-per-carry average, and the most rushing attempts for first downs. Pittsburgh must have a big game from Mendenhall because Roethlisberger's offensive line has been a scrambled mess all season.
Coaches
The Jets' Rex Ryan and the Steelers' Mike Tomlin have squared off head to head just the one time, with Ryan coming out on top. All told, Ryan is 4-1 in playoff games, with all four wins coming on the road. Just keep in mind that Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is also 4-1 in his last four meetings with a Rex Ryan defense, dating back to Ryan's days as Ravens defensive coordinator..
Tomlin is also 4-1 in his postseason career, although he's lost at home before (2007, 31-29 to the Jaguars). Still, he hasn't lost a playoff game since. Including postseason games, Tomlin's career record stands at 47-22 (.681) in four seasons. Ryan's career record is 24-13 (.649). Neither coach has much bulletin board material after a relatively quiet week in terms of trash talk.
X-factors
Braylon Edwards
Edwards cleared 100 yards just once this season, and it happened to be against the Steelers in Week 15. Working often against Pittsburgh left cornerback Bryant McFadden, Edwards racked up eight catches and showed rare -- for him -- fearlessness over the middle. It is worth noting that the Steelers played that game without hard-hitting strong safety Troy Polamalu due to an Achilles' strain. The Jets need Edwards to continue to excel on crossing routes with Polamalu back in the lineup. Edwards has at least 52 yards in five straight games.
Heath Miller
The Steelers played Week 15 without Miller because of a concussion, and Ben Roethlisberger missed the tight end's red-zone presence on two fourth-quarter throws that were batted down at the goal line. Miller has at least four catches and a touchdown in each of his last two games. He'll also be a big factor as a "help" blocker in passing situations with the Steelers' front five reeling. Both of Pittsburgh's offensive tackles were lost to in-game injury in the divisional round.
Prediction: Steelers 17, Jets 10
Senior Bowl Day One Recap
The first day of Senior Bowl week is full of excitement for everyone involved. The city of Mobile, Alabama enjoys hosting the game at Ladd-Peebles Stadium and local football fans flood the parking lot waiting to see some of college football's finest talent. Coaching staffs and scouts alike enjoy the event after the doldrums of the NFL season. Hope springs eternal as each prospect becomes "the next Tom Brady," "next Pierre Thomas," and "next Wes Welker."
Here are five positives and five negatives from the opening weigh-ins and first practice of the week.
Five Positives
1) Ryan Kerrigan (DE Purdue), Nate Solder (OT Colorado) and Christian Ponder (QB Florida State) all had great weigh-ins. Kerrigan looked chiseled in his upper body and more athletic than he is typically viewed. Solder drew a whistle from media members in the audience showing up at a legit 6'8" and carrying 314 lbs better than many thought possible. He has a lot of work to do from a development standpoint, but is as intriguing a tackle prospect as we've seen from this class. Ponder had the QB mold trifecta with athletic build, short arms, and big hands. A onetime top prospect, he'll rise if his shoulder is healthy.
2) Everyone knows Colin Kaepernick (QB Nevada) is tall and runs well for his length. He showed up at his weigh-in with more muscle definition than was expected and looked like he had plenty of room on his frame to fill out. At practice, Kaepernick was spotty, but threw the ball as well as anyone and drew buzz from several team scouts. Currently a mid-round prospect, Kaepernick could rise quickly in this class.
3) John Moffitt (OC/OG Wisconsin) is considered a mid-round prospect after blocking for numerous top rushers during his time in Madison. Moffitt took reps at every interior line position during practice today and excelled moving to both his right and his left. Versatility is key for mid-round linemen, and Moffitt showcased it in spades for the Cincinnati Bengals coaches.
4) The defensive backfield talent in this draft isn't great behind Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara, but Rashad Carmichael (DB Virginia Tech) had a nice pick off of Jake Locker (QB Washington) and consistently locked up his man during 1-on-1 drills. Joe Lefeged (DB Rutgers) had a nice pick on a high-arching pass he tracked without losing speed. A great week by a cornerback or safety in this game could really shape a mediocre class.
5) Danny Watkins (OL Baylor) looked great at guard for the South squad. He moved very well and was able to mirror pass rushers. Watkins consistently stymied bull rushers throughout 1-on-1 drills. At the second level, he showcased the ability to lock on linebackers and drive them out of the hole. Interior linemen are in short supply this year and Watkins can make himself some money this week.
Five Negatives
1) Greg Jones (LB Michigan State) is extremely small for a middle linebacker at 5'11 7/8, 240 yet consistently lined up at that position while the bigger Mark Herzlich lined up outside. Furthermore, at the weigh-in Jones looked like he could actually shed weight. Jones needs to spend this week showing versatility and willingness to play special teams. He just doesn't have the body or the skills to play every down in the middle of an NFL defense.
2) Titus Young (WR Boise State) had five drops during the practice session and was subsequently dogged by the coaching staff. However, he also turned in a couple of great plays and hauled in a touchdown. His stock is currently sitting in a group of five or six high mid-round prospects. He can certainly carve out his niche in the NFL as a short route demon and punt returner, but he needs to consistently catch the ball.
3) If Jake Locker (QB Washington) ever writes his memoirs, this week should be in a chapter entitled, "No Excuses." Locker was sporadic in today's practice but had a couple of really good passes, including a few dropped by the aforementioned Titus Young. Locker has every tool you want from a NFL QB, but poor blocking and worse skill position play doomed him in Washington. On the flip side, Coach Steve Sarkisian is a famed QB developer and many scouts believe Locker should be further along in his development. No one is being watched closer.
4) Kendric Burney (CB UNC) struggled through 2010 on a team that had plenty of excuses. Today, in Mobile, he better have had a couple because he was burned repeatedly by the North's wide receivers. Burney simply couldn't stay with receivers who beat him several times with double moves.
5) DeMarcus Van Dyke (CB Miami) didn't display any physicality at the South practices, and had trouble breaking on the ball. He was consistently caught high in his backpedal and the South quarterbacks took advantage.
The first day of Senior Bowl week is full of excitement for everyone involved. The city of Mobile, Alabama enjoys hosting the game at Ladd-Peebles Stadium and local football fans flood the parking lot waiting to see some of college football's finest talent. Coaching staffs and scouts alike enjoy the event after the doldrums of the NFL season. Hope springs eternal as each prospect becomes "the next Tom Brady," "next Pierre Thomas," and "next Wes Welker."
Here are five positives and five negatives from the opening weigh-ins and first practice of the week.
Five Positives
1) Ryan Kerrigan (DE Purdue), Nate Solder (OT Colorado) and Christian Ponder (QB Florida State) all had great weigh-ins. Kerrigan looked chiseled in his upper body and more athletic than he is typically viewed. Solder drew a whistle from media members in the audience showing up at a legit 6'8" and carrying 314 lbs better than many thought possible. He has a lot of work to do from a development standpoint, but is as intriguing a tackle prospect as we've seen from this class. Ponder had the QB mold trifecta with athletic build, short arms, and big hands. A onetime top prospect, he'll rise if his shoulder is healthy.
2) Everyone knows Colin Kaepernick (QB Nevada) is tall and runs well for his length. He showed up at his weigh-in with more muscle definition than was expected and looked like he had plenty of room on his frame to fill out. At practice, Kaepernick was spotty, but threw the ball as well as anyone and drew buzz from several team scouts. Currently a mid-round prospect, Kaepernick could rise quickly in this class.
3) John Moffitt (OC/OG Wisconsin) is considered a mid-round prospect after blocking for numerous top rushers during his time in Madison. Moffitt took reps at every interior line position during practice today and excelled moving to both his right and his left. Versatility is key for mid-round linemen, and Moffitt showcased it in spades for the Cincinnati Bengals coaches.
4) The defensive backfield talent in this draft isn't great behind Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara, but Rashad Carmichael (DB Virginia Tech) had a nice pick off of Jake Locker (QB Washington) and consistently locked up his man during 1-on-1 drills. Joe Lefeged (DB Rutgers) had a nice pick on a high-arching pass he tracked without losing speed. A great week by a cornerback or safety in this game could really shape a mediocre class.
5) Danny Watkins (OL Baylor) looked great at guard for the South squad. He moved very well and was able to mirror pass rushers. Watkins consistently stymied bull rushers throughout 1-on-1 drills. At the second level, he showcased the ability to lock on linebackers and drive them out of the hole. Interior linemen are in short supply this year and Watkins can make himself some money this week.
Five Negatives
1) Greg Jones (LB Michigan State) is extremely small for a middle linebacker at 5'11 7/8, 240 yet consistently lined up at that position while the bigger Mark Herzlich lined up outside. Furthermore, at the weigh-in Jones looked like he could actually shed weight. Jones needs to spend this week showing versatility and willingness to play special teams. He just doesn't have the body or the skills to play every down in the middle of an NFL defense.
2) Titus Young (WR Boise State) had five drops during the practice session and was subsequently dogged by the coaching staff. However, he also turned in a couple of great plays and hauled in a touchdown. His stock is currently sitting in a group of five or six high mid-round prospects. He can certainly carve out his niche in the NFL as a short route demon and punt returner, but he needs to consistently catch the ball.
3) If Jake Locker (QB Washington) ever writes his memoirs, this week should be in a chapter entitled, "No Excuses." Locker was sporadic in today's practice but had a couple of really good passes, including a few dropped by the aforementioned Titus Young. Locker has every tool you want from a NFL QB, but poor blocking and worse skill position play doomed him in Washington. On the flip side, Coach Steve Sarkisian is a famed QB developer and many scouts believe Locker should be further along in his development. No one is being watched closer.
4) Kendric Burney (CB UNC) struggled through 2010 on a team that had plenty of excuses. Today, in Mobile, he better have had a couple because he was burned repeatedly by the North's wide receivers. Burney simply couldn't stay with receivers who beat him several times with double moves.
5) DeMarcus Van Dyke (CB Miami) didn't display any physicality at the South practices, and had trouble breaking on the ball. He was consistently caught high in his backpedal and the South quarterbacks took advantage.
Senior Bowl Day Two Recap
On day two of the Senior Bowl, the North and South teams practiced at separate times, allowing scouts and media to get a closer look at both squads. Ladd-Peebles Stadium was much busier today as intensity and speed finally kicked off some rust from the all-star teams. As a whole, many scouts in attendance thought the North's morning practice -- run by the Cincinnati Bengals coaches -- was much more "on point" and moved along nicely. The Buffalo Bills coaches ran a more relaxed practice and focused more on special teams than onlookers enjoyed.
Here's five up and five down from today's practices:
1) No one has more buzz right now than the North's Vincent Brown (WR San Diego State). Once considered a low/mid-round prospect with decent speed and good overall talent, Brown is the shining star of practices and has caught everything thrown his way. He's also shown good athleticism on deep routes and quickness on screens and reverses.
2) Cameron Jordan (DE Cal) and Christian Ballard (DT/DE Iowa) were both unblockable in today's morning practice. Jordan seems to be a step faster and a bit more talented than anyone else here. His ability to set up blockers one way, and break through laterally is outstanding. Ballard is outworking many of his counterparts and has a real shot to start as a 3-technique in a 4-3, but has the versatility to kick to 3-4 end.
3) Shareece Wright (CB USC) was the talk of South practices Monday, and much of that carried over to today. He is a tough, physical cornerback who has the ability to play off-coverage and close quickly on receivers. He isn't the best when asked to turn and run with faster opponents, but certainly wouldn't kill a team who asked him to learn. He has a good deal of raw physical talent and is quickly asserting himself in a deep cornerback class.
4) DeMarco Murray (RB Oklahoma) and Bilal Powell (RB Louisville) both silenced a lot of critics today, or at least should have. Murray is an extremely sudden runner who springs through holes and weaves through traffic. The former Sooner has the rare ability to make multiple cuts quickly without losing overall linear speed. Powell is a strong runner who displays a ton of body control, leaning in and out of breaks to minimize contact and bounce off defenders.
5) Luke Stocker (TE Tennessee) had the catch of the day, plucking an errant pass out of the air and absorbing a tremendous hit drawing a ton of "oohs" and a smattering of "ahhs" from the crowd. When he got up, Stocker held the ball out for the crowd -- and the defender -- to see. With Kyle Rudolph's (TE Notre Dame) hamstring injury, Stocker could be the top tight end in the draft. Lee Smith (TE Marshall) has had a great couple of days and is showcasing himself as a blocker.
1) Andy Dalton (QB Texas Christian) has had a lot of good publicity since his Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin, but struggled during today's practice. He has the ability to make big plays and has decent athleticism and arm strength, but just doesn't look like a natural passer and spent most of his day locked on to his former teammate, Jeremy Kerley. Unless Dalton plans on his NFL team drafting his entire TCU receiving corps, he'll need to showcase natural timing and accuracy.
2) Christian Ponder (QB Florida State) and Greg McElroy (QB Alabama) are the other two South quarterbacks, and, as a whole, that team did not seem to have overwhelming talent passing the ball. Ponder and McElroy (along with Dalton) appear to be mid-round prospects that are leaders, guys you want on your team, but never want to have the game in their hands. Ponder had a weak arm before multiple arm surgeries and doesn't look as accurate as his hype. McElroy is a smart kid but doesn't seem in his element in an all-star atmosphere.
3) Noel Devine (RB West Virginia) actually looked good in practice today and he'll certainly get a spot on an NFL roster. The problem is, he looks so small next to a number of smaller backs like Derrick Locke (RB Kentucky) and Kendall Hunter (RB Oklahoma State). Devine's speed is negated at an all-star game like it will in the NFL and he needs plenty of space to do what he does best. He'll make an impact, but it is hard to see him as anything more than a deep niche player at the next level.
4) Kevin Kowalski (C Toledo) made a lot of the North defensive linemen look really good today and didn't move well enough for a guy who also lacks ideal size. He'll be a deep reserve on an NFL team and is reportedly very smart as well as a leader. He just can't block this caliber of talent. Marcus Gilbert (OT Florida) doesn't move well, either, and plays too high to be a consistent factor in the run game.
5) When you're a punter at the all-star game, you shouldn't have to throw the ball just so the return team can get a good rep. Chas Henry (P Florida) just shouldn't be drafted.
On day two of the Senior Bowl, the North and South teams practiced at separate times, allowing scouts and media to get a closer look at both squads. Ladd-Peebles Stadium was much busier today as intensity and speed finally kicked off some rust from the all-star teams. As a whole, many scouts in attendance thought the North's morning practice -- run by the Cincinnati Bengals coaches -- was much more "on point" and moved along nicely. The Buffalo Bills coaches ran a more relaxed practice and focused more on special teams than onlookers enjoyed.
Here's five up and five down from today's practices:
1) No one has more buzz right now than the North's Vincent Brown (WR San Diego State). Once considered a low/mid-round prospect with decent speed and good overall talent, Brown is the shining star of practices and has caught everything thrown his way. He's also shown good athleticism on deep routes and quickness on screens and reverses.
2) Cameron Jordan (DE Cal) and Christian Ballard (DT/DE Iowa) were both unblockable in today's morning practice. Jordan seems to be a step faster and a bit more talented than anyone else here. His ability to set up blockers one way, and break through laterally is outstanding. Ballard is outworking many of his counterparts and has a real shot to start as a 3-technique in a 4-3, but has the versatility to kick to 3-4 end.
3) Shareece Wright (CB USC) was the talk of South practices Monday, and much of that carried over to today. He is a tough, physical cornerback who has the ability to play off-coverage and close quickly on receivers. He isn't the best when asked to turn and run with faster opponents, but certainly wouldn't kill a team who asked him to learn. He has a good deal of raw physical talent and is quickly asserting himself in a deep cornerback class.
4) DeMarco Murray (RB Oklahoma) and Bilal Powell (RB Louisville) both silenced a lot of critics today, or at least should have. Murray is an extremely sudden runner who springs through holes and weaves through traffic. The former Sooner has the rare ability to make multiple cuts quickly without losing overall linear speed. Powell is a strong runner who displays a ton of body control, leaning in and out of breaks to minimize contact and bounce off defenders.
5) Luke Stocker (TE Tennessee) had the catch of the day, plucking an errant pass out of the air and absorbing a tremendous hit drawing a ton of "oohs" and a smattering of "ahhs" from the crowd. When he got up, Stocker held the ball out for the crowd -- and the defender -- to see. With Kyle Rudolph's (TE Notre Dame) hamstring injury, Stocker could be the top tight end in the draft. Lee Smith (TE Marshall) has had a great couple of days and is showcasing himself as a blocker.
1) Andy Dalton (QB Texas Christian) has had a lot of good publicity since his Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin, but struggled during today's practice. He has the ability to make big plays and has decent athleticism and arm strength, but just doesn't look like a natural passer and spent most of his day locked on to his former teammate, Jeremy Kerley. Unless Dalton plans on his NFL team drafting his entire TCU receiving corps, he'll need to showcase natural timing and accuracy.
2) Christian Ponder (QB Florida State) and Greg McElroy (QB Alabama) are the other two South quarterbacks, and, as a whole, that team did not seem to have overwhelming talent passing the ball. Ponder and McElroy (along with Dalton) appear to be mid-round prospects that are leaders, guys you want on your team, but never want to have the game in their hands. Ponder had a weak arm before multiple arm surgeries and doesn't look as accurate as his hype. McElroy is a smart kid but doesn't seem in his element in an all-star atmosphere.
3) Noel Devine (RB West Virginia) actually looked good in practice today and he'll certainly get a spot on an NFL roster. The problem is, he looks so small next to a number of smaller backs like Derrick Locke (RB Kentucky) and Kendall Hunter (RB Oklahoma State). Devine's speed is negated at an all-star game like it will in the NFL and he needs plenty of space to do what he does best. He'll make an impact, but it is hard to see him as anything more than a deep niche player at the next level.
4) Kevin Kowalski (C Toledo) made a lot of the North defensive linemen look really good today and didn't move well enough for a guy who also lacks ideal size. He'll be a deep reserve on an NFL team and is reportedly very smart as well as a leader. He just can't block this caliber of talent. Marcus Gilbert (OT Florida) doesn't move well, either, and plays too high to be a consistent factor in the run game.
5) When you're a punter at the all-star game, you shouldn't have to throw the ball just so the return team can get a good rep. Chas Henry (P Florida) just shouldn't be drafted.
