PUBLIC BETTING
.................................................SIDE...M/L.....O/U
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e136922 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"><TD id=score width=50>
7:30P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>253 Philadelphia Eagles
254 Pittsburgh Steelers
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>0
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>43%
57%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>n/a
n/a
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>49%
51%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e136925 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2"><TD id=score width=50>
8:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>255 Seattle Seahawks
256 Minnesota Vikings
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>0
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>28%
72%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>88%
12%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>57%
43%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e136928 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"><TD id=score width=50>8/8
10:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>257 San Francisco 49ers
258 Oakland Raiders
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>0
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>36%
64%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>93%
7%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>62%
38%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
FRIDAY GAMES
.................................................SIDE...M/L.....O/U
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e136922 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"><TD id=score width=50>
7:30P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>253 Philadelphia Eagles
254 Pittsburgh Steelers
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>0
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>43%
57%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>n/a
n/a
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>49%
51%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e136925 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2"><TD id=score width=50>
8:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>255 Seattle Seahawks
256 Minnesota Vikings
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>0
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>28%
72%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>88%
12%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>57%
43%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e136928 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"><TD id=score width=50>8/8
10:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>257 San Francisco 49ers
258 Oakland Raiders
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>0
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>36%
64%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>93%
7%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>62%
38%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
FRIDAY GAMES
my friend nick think just like me in manny ways I alway like reading his stuff 3-4 times a week
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]You'll hear a lot of good advice in the coming days and weeks about how to get ready for the NFL season. I'll be offering my thoughts here in these web articles. My colleagues at the site will be doing the same. The traditional schools of thought on preparation have been around forever. That's because they work.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Those are:[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I think it's important for handicappers to also look at pointspread results from the prior season. I do this not because I'm interested in evaluating the teams. I've got enough material for that already. I'm interested in evaluating the job that oddsmakers and the public did the prior season. With a few exceptions here and there, teams aren't out on the field trying to cover spreads. They're trying to win games. Pointspread results are all about meeting "expectations." Since you're trying to pick winners against lines that are based on expectations, this can be a valuable exercise. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's briefly run through the ATS records of all 32 teams last season. A lot of teams finished in the 7-9 to 9-7 range because the numbers were fairly good in their games. I'll gloss over those guys and focus on any extremes that come up. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NFC EAST
NY Giants: 10-6
Dallas: 9-7
Philadelphia: 8-8
Washington: 7-7-2[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Interesting that the eventual Super Bowl Champs were grading out as "underrated" even before the postseason started. You know that New York would run the table away from home in the playoffs. They would eventually finish 14-6 ATS for the season counting those games. The public and oddsmakers (and most sharps) just never believed this team was as good as they really were. Note that Dallas had a hot start and a cold finish last year. You could make the case the market was out of synch in both directions. Dallas was underrated early, and overrated late. Now that Tony Romo is a known quantity, I expect them to be a bit overrated this season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NFC NORTH
Green Bay: 12-3-1
Minnesota: 7-7-2
Chicago: 7-9
Detroit: 6-9-1
Which two teams played for the NFC championship? Green Bay and New York...the most underrated teams in the conference. I think too many people blow off ATS records because they see them as random. Many are. But, you'd be surprised how often they signal big steps up in productivity. The market couldn't accept that the Giants and Packers were championship material. As a result, their lines were consistently too low. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NFC SOUTH
Tampa Bay: 9-7
Carolina: 8-8
Atlanta: 8-8
New Orleans: 6-10[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]New Orleans is the only extreme that jumps out here. They were overrated all season after that deep playoff run the prior year. Eventually, not having a defense becomes a big problem! High octane offenses typically end up being turnover prone in big games too. Basically, Green Bay and New York were the teams the public expected New Orleans to be in 2007. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NFC WEST
Seattle: 9-7
Arizona: 9-7
San Francisco: 5-11
St. Louis: 5-11[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]It's odd to see two bad teams in the same division like this. The 49ers got a lot of hype heading into 2007 for no good reason. St. Louis was completely ravaged by injuries and never got a chance to recover. I know some sharps who bought into the San Francisco hype for far too long last year. SF's pointspread results were clearly signaling the team was overrated. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AFC EAST
New England: 10-6
Buffalo: 9-6-1
NY Jets: 6-9-1
Miami: 5-8-3[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]It just wasn't a great year for handicappers who love going against the perceived powers in the sport. New England did finally slump in the latter stages of the season. Many sharps took a big hit going against them every game in the first two months. It's hard to fathom given all the hype, but New England was actually an underrated team most of last year. Miami's not quite as bad as it looks because of those three pushes. Five wins usually means 5-11. They were worse than the public would accept most of the season though. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AFC NORTH
Cleveland: 12-4
Pittsburgh: 8-8
Cincinnati: 7-9
Baltimore: 3-13[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Here we have two of the biggest extremes in the league. Cleveland was second to Green Bay in the whole NFL with that 12-4 ATS record. They consistently overachieved expectations. Some of that was because they played a weak schedule. The oddsmakers weren't giving enough respect to the Browns, and were giving way too much to their opponents. Baltimore was the worst team in the league at 3-13 ATS. Nobody else was even as bad as 4-12 ATS. Only three were at 5-11 ATS! Baltimore was a special kind of horrible last year when it came to covering spreads. They were a playoff team the prior season. The betting market refused to except the fall from grace that was obviously happening. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville: 11-5
Indianapolis: 9-7
Tennessee: 8-8
Houston: 8-8[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]A strong division both straight up and ATS. In fact, nobody was below .500 in either category in this strong group. Indianapolis was another "public" team that kept on covering spreads. Jacksonville proved to be the most underrated of the group. None of the playoff teams in either conference were below .500 against expectations. The days of the public "overbetting" the good teams may be over. Or, better put, oddsmakers aren't doing a good enough job of penalizing them for that tendency![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AFC WEST
San Diego: 11-5
Kansas City: 7-8-1
Oakland: 6-10
Denver: 5-11[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Not as extreme as the AFC North...but we do have an 11-5 and a 5-11 in this group. Denver was basically the AFC version of New Orleans...a team that was expected to do things who floundered all year instead. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]What have we learned? For starters:[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]You'll hear a lot of good advice in the coming days and weeks about how to get ready for the NFL season. I'll be offering my thoughts here in these web articles. My colleagues at the site will be doing the same. The traditional schools of thought on preparation have been around forever. That's because they work.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Those are:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Start with where teams ended up the prior season
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Adjust for offseason personnel moves
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Adjust for the caliber of athletes picked up in the draft
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Adjust for the volume of injuries in the prior season
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Make a good ballpark guess at expectations for the coming campaign.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I think it's important for handicappers to also look at pointspread results from the prior season. I do this not because I'm interested in evaluating the teams. I've got enough material for that already. I'm interested in evaluating the job that oddsmakers and the public did the prior season. With a few exceptions here and there, teams aren't out on the field trying to cover spreads. They're trying to win games. Pointspread results are all about meeting "expectations." Since you're trying to pick winners against lines that are based on expectations, this can be a valuable exercise. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's briefly run through the ATS records of all 32 teams last season. A lot of teams finished in the 7-9 to 9-7 range because the numbers were fairly good in their games. I'll gloss over those guys and focus on any extremes that come up. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NFC EAST
NY Giants: 10-6
Dallas: 9-7
Philadelphia: 8-8
Washington: 7-7-2[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Interesting that the eventual Super Bowl Champs were grading out as "underrated" even before the postseason started. You know that New York would run the table away from home in the playoffs. They would eventually finish 14-6 ATS for the season counting those games. The public and oddsmakers (and most sharps) just never believed this team was as good as they really were. Note that Dallas had a hot start and a cold finish last year. You could make the case the market was out of synch in both directions. Dallas was underrated early, and overrated late. Now that Tony Romo is a known quantity, I expect them to be a bit overrated this season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NFC NORTH
Green Bay: 12-3-1
Minnesota: 7-7-2
Chicago: 7-9
Detroit: 6-9-1
Which two teams played for the NFC championship? Green Bay and New York...the most underrated teams in the conference. I think too many people blow off ATS records because they see them as random. Many are. But, you'd be surprised how often they signal big steps up in productivity. The market couldn't accept that the Giants and Packers were championship material. As a result, their lines were consistently too low. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NFC SOUTH
Tampa Bay: 9-7
Carolina: 8-8
Atlanta: 8-8
New Orleans: 6-10[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]New Orleans is the only extreme that jumps out here. They were overrated all season after that deep playoff run the prior year. Eventually, not having a defense becomes a big problem! High octane offenses typically end up being turnover prone in big games too. Basically, Green Bay and New York were the teams the public expected New Orleans to be in 2007. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NFC WEST
Seattle: 9-7
Arizona: 9-7
San Francisco: 5-11
St. Louis: 5-11[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]It's odd to see two bad teams in the same division like this. The 49ers got a lot of hype heading into 2007 for no good reason. St. Louis was completely ravaged by injuries and never got a chance to recover. I know some sharps who bought into the San Francisco hype for far too long last year. SF's pointspread results were clearly signaling the team was overrated. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AFC EAST
New England: 10-6
Buffalo: 9-6-1
NY Jets: 6-9-1
Miami: 5-8-3[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]It just wasn't a great year for handicappers who love going against the perceived powers in the sport. New England did finally slump in the latter stages of the season. Many sharps took a big hit going against them every game in the first two months. It's hard to fathom given all the hype, but New England was actually an underrated team most of last year. Miami's not quite as bad as it looks because of those three pushes. Five wins usually means 5-11. They were worse than the public would accept most of the season though. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AFC NORTH
Cleveland: 12-4
Pittsburgh: 8-8
Cincinnati: 7-9
Baltimore: 3-13[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Here we have two of the biggest extremes in the league. Cleveland was second to Green Bay in the whole NFL with that 12-4 ATS record. They consistently overachieved expectations. Some of that was because they played a weak schedule. The oddsmakers weren't giving enough respect to the Browns, and were giving way too much to their opponents. Baltimore was the worst team in the league at 3-13 ATS. Nobody else was even as bad as 4-12 ATS. Only three were at 5-11 ATS! Baltimore was a special kind of horrible last year when it came to covering spreads. They were a playoff team the prior season. The betting market refused to except the fall from grace that was obviously happening. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville: 11-5
Indianapolis: 9-7
Tennessee: 8-8
Houston: 8-8[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]A strong division both straight up and ATS. In fact, nobody was below .500 in either category in this strong group. Indianapolis was another "public" team that kept on covering spreads. Jacksonville proved to be the most underrated of the group. None of the playoff teams in either conference were below .500 against expectations. The days of the public "overbetting" the good teams may be over. Or, better put, oddsmakers aren't doing a good enough job of penalizing them for that tendency![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AFC WEST
San Diego: 11-5
Kansas City: 7-8-1
Oakland: 6-10
Denver: 5-11[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Not as extreme as the AFC North...but we do have an 11-5 and a 5-11 in this group. Denver was basically the AFC version of New Orleans...a team that was expected to do things who floundered all year instead. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]What have we learned? For starters:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Good teams are covering, so any strategy of going against them in knee-jerk fashion every week may not work well this year.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Most of the league is within a game or two of the .500 mark, meaning it's tough to pick a team and ride them all year for profit (or pick a go-against team and hope they keep getting drilled).
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]There will be a handful of good and bad surprises. See if you can find them for 2008!
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The betting markets do make mistakes that often take a couple of months to correct.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]A few consensus playoff caliber teams will lay eggs because they got too old or because other weaknesses were exposed.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]New contenders will come to the forefront as young stars emerge (the way Eli Manning finally did last year). The betting markets are often behind the curve when pretenders move down or new contenders move up. [/FONT]
Question here. When I handicapp, I usually go against the public and line moves. In the Philly game, the line dropped 3 points when the public is one Pitt. This looks like a big play from that standpoint. What do you think about the line move and why? I see your on Pitt and that makes me want to rethink my bet.
in regseason I would not like to see that drop...but this is pre...Iam betting base on match-up on who's playing...someone put money on phi to get the line down to pk...I look at it now as a value...still a small bet in the big picture...But I see the edge for pitt
some candy
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh, 7:30 ET
Philadelphia: 1-9 ATS Away 1st 2 weeks of preseason
Pittsburgh: 8-1 Under L9 preseason games
PHILADELPHIA (1 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 1) - 8/8/2008, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
With that line movement, wouldn't you think they want more Pitt money and not Phillies.
Then I find this in the service play area.
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh, 7:30 ET
Philadelphia: 1-9 ATS Away 1st 2 weeks of preseason
Pittsburgh: 8-1 Under L9 preseason games
Some strong trends for Pitt even though I'm not a trend capper.
Then I find this in the service play area.
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh, 7:30 ET
Philadelphia: 1-9 ATS Away 1st 2 weeks of preseason
Pittsburgh: 8-1 Under L9 preseason games
Some strong trends for Pitt even though I'm not a trend capper.
the upper one was in the Am
this is now
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e136922 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"><TD id=score width=50>
7:30P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>253 Philadelphia Eagles
254 Pittsburgh Steelers
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>0
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>44%
56%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>50%
50%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>55%
45%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e136925 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2"><TD id=score width=50>
8:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>255 Seattle Seahawks
256 Minnesota Vikings
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>0
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>31%
69%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>53%
47%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>55%
45%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e136928 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"><TD id=score width=50>10:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>257 San Francisco 49ers
258 Oakland Raiders
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>0
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>48%
52%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>59%
41%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>66%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
a little change
the money at one place that tell me.
PHI 57%
OV 67%
SEA 58%
OV 77%
OAK 51%
UN 98%...LOTS
JUST REPORTING YOU DO WHAT YOU THINK IS RIGHT:toast:AA
SATURDAY'S GAMES 8/9/08
Buffalo Bills - QB Rotation: Trent Edwards, J.P. Losman, Gilbran Hamdan, Matt Baker.
Backup QB J.P. Losman is still bothered by a sore thumb, while 4th-string QB Matt Baker hurt his groin and did not practice Wednesday.
WR Josh Reed and strong safety Donte Whitner remained sidelined with lower back and ankle ailments. Dick Jauron does not expect either player to dress for Saturday's preseason opener in Washington.
Washington Redskins - QB Rotation: Jason Campbell (1st Q), rookie Colt Brennan (2nd Q), Todd Collins (3rd Q), rookie Sam Hollenbach.
This is the second game for the Redskins, after playing in the Hall of Fame Game (8/3).
Coach Jim Zorn said he might rotate his quarterbacks differently than he did in the preseason opener. Starter Jason Campbell again will open the game with the first team, but rookie Colt Brennan might go in next, instead of backup Todd Collins. Zorn wants to see Brennan operate in different aspects of the offense.
Jim Zorn is the new head coach. Zorn said the starters will play sparingly Saturday, though some who sat out Sunday, such as linebacker London Fletcher and defensive end Jason Taylor, could play a few snaps.
Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis is scheduled to make his preseason debut.
Wide outs thin. Top pick Devin Thomas is sidelined because of a strained hamstring. Rookie WR Malcolm Kelly underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and is expected to be out about two weeks.
Reserve tackles Todd Wade and Stephon Heyer will each miss at least two weeks with injuries. The starting offensive line is likely to play only a series or two Saturday, leaving inexperienced tackles responsible for the health of the backup quarterbacks.
Injuries have mounted since camp began. Defensive ends Phillip Daniels and Alex Buzbee suffered season-ending injuries on the first day. Linebackers H.B. Blades and Rian Wallace and starting defensive tackle Anthony Montgomery also have had surgery. In the Hall of Fame game, tackle Stephon Heyer sprained his right knee, and tackle Todd Wade was carted off having sprained an ankle.
The Redskins are being cautious with cornerback Carlos Rogers and linebacker Rocky McIntosh, both of whom are coming back from season-ending knee surgery, and neither will play.
Greg Blache is the new defensive coordinator, while Sherman Smith is offensive coordinator after OC Al Saunders left. Smith previously served as assistant head coach-running backs with the Tennessee Titans for 13 seasons.
Atlanta Falcons - QB Rotation: Chris Redman (1st Q), Joey Harrington, Matt Ryan, D.J. Shockley.
QB Chris Redman will start. Rookie QB Matt Ryan should get extended playing time. With Atlanta wanting to see how he handles NFL pressure, it wouldn't be shocking to see him play early and for a prolonged period. HC Mike Smith said he hopes to get each quarterback a relatively equal number of snaps against the Jaguars.
The Falcons have spent a lot of time re-tooling the running game. Tailbacks Thomas Brown and Jason Snelling should have a battle for the No. 3 job.
The new head coach is Mike Smith, with Mike Mularkey taking over as offensive coordinator. Smith was the defensive coordinator of the Jaguars and faces his old team here.
A young secondary: The Falcons could start Chris Houston (second year) and Brent Grimes (second year) and use Chevis Jackson (rookie) as the nickel back.
It is hard to get a read on the defensive line, since so many players (Jamaal Anderson, Jonathan Babineaux and John Abraham) have missed practice time with injuries and personal matters. Grady Jackson hasn't done much since signing last week.
WR Brian Finneran, who missed the past two seasons after tearing the ACL in the same knee, is making a strong case to be retained.
The Falcons re-signed former Georgia Tech tight end George Cooper Monday, a sign that No. 2 tight end Martrez Milner might not be available for Saturday's preseason opener.
*The Falcons have five assistant coaches who have spent time on the Jacksonville staff: offensive line coach Paul Boudreau (2003-05), defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder (2005), defensive line coach Ray Hamilton (2003-07), quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave (2003-04) and defensive backs coach Alvin Reynolds (2003-07).
Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Rotation: David Garrard, Cleo Lemon, Todd Bauman.
Jacksonville has a new defensive coordinator in Gregg Williams, who was with the Redskins last fall under Joe Gibbs.
Wide receiver position still isn't fixed. There are injuries to Jerry Porter (hamstring), Reggie Williams (knee), so Troy Williamson and Dennis Northcutt are listed as starters.
Offensive line is a weakness. The Jaguars will be without center Brad Meester for eight to 10 weeks and WR Reggie Williams for two to three weeks after both players underwent surgery last week.
Brian Williams' move from cornerback to safety might become permanent. The team listed Williams as the starter at strong safety, opposite second-year pro Reggie Nelson at free safety.
Indianapolis Colts - QB Rotation: Peyton Manning, Jim Sorgi (will start), Jared Lorenzen, Quinn Gray, Adam Tafarlis.
This is the second game for the Colts, after playing in the Hall of Fame Game (8/3).
Manning won't play, having minor bursa knee surgery in July. The recovery time is 4-6 weeks, so he will probably see little preseason action. Jim Sorgi will make his second start, but the rotation behind him will change. Jared Lorenzen probably will take over when Sorgi is finished, followed by Quinn Gray.
WR Marvin Harrison (knees) might not play Aug. 9 when the Colts visit the Panthers. But the coach assured that Harrison "will get his share in" during the preseason.
DE Dwight Freeney expects to miss the first three weeks of the preseason, but perhaps play in the fourth or fifth preseason game.
Defensive line thin with the retirement of Quinn Pitcock, creating a void at defensive tackle. Raheem Brock, a 27-game starter at tackle the past two seasons, has been moved to left end in the base defense and apparently will remain there even with Pitcock's decision.
LBs thin. They added LB Dedrick Harrington this week. Harrington's addition followed that of Brandon Archer's last week, and again was out of necessity. Injuries continue to deplete the position. Archer joined the list of ailing linebackers with an injury to his left ankle. Other linebackers missing practice include Gary Brackett (hip), Clint Session (calf), Victor Worsley (hamstring) and Philip Wheeler (knee).
With only five able-bodied linebackers, the Colts are playing a lot of nickel defense in practice. That means two linebackers instead of three with a defensive back -- Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden or Matt Giordano -- playing close to the line of scrimmage.
Carolina Panthers - QB Rotation: Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore, Brett Basanez, Lester Ricard.
Revamped Panthers offensive line: The coaches urged the guards and tackles to get bigger during the offseason.
Top pick Rookie RB Jonathan Stewart's right big toe, which had surgery in March, is still giving him some discomfort. They are being cautious and he will be a game time decision.
The Panthers suspended star WR Steve Smith without pay for the team's first two regular-season games for punching cornerback Ken Lucas.
Injuries continued to hit the defense when safety Chris Harris left early with a strained muscle in his upper right leg. Linebacker Jon Beason tweaked his ankle.
Tampa Bay Bucs - QB Rotation: Jeff Garcia, Luke McCown (1st Q), Brian Griese (2nd Q), Chris Simms, rookie Josh Johnson (see below).
QB Jeff Garcia has a strained calf and won't play. Luke McCown will open up at QB for the Bucs Saturday, with Brian Griese, Chris Simms and rookie Josh Johnson getting some snaps at Dolphin Stadium.
Jon Gruden clearly is frustrated with McCown's inconsistency, but admits that is to be expected from a young quarterback.
WRs thin. With WR Joey Galloway out, Maurice Stovall and Antonio Bryant have been splitting the reps at first-team split end. The Bucs have also worked Micheal Spurlock and rookie Dexter Jackson at that spot.
Miami Dolphins - QB Rotation: Josh McCown, John Beck, rookie Chad Henne.
QBs Beck and McCown have struggled in camp. McCown continues to work with the first-team offense, with second-year quarterback John Beck and rookie Chad Henne as backups.
The offensive line will certainly see its share of shake-ups, which likely will cause some considerable changes to the depth chart throughout the preseason. Justin Smiley is currently listed as the starter at left guard, and Trey Darilek is listed at right guard. Given Smiley's recent struggles on the left side and Donald Thomas' recent emergence on the right side, there's likely to be some different combinations used before anything is settled at that position, too.
Tony Sparano is the new head coach, a former assistant with Bill Parcells in Dallas. He is a proponent of a balanced offense.
Denver Broncos - QB Rotation: Jay Cutler, Patrick Ramsey, Darrell Hackney.
LBs thin. Linebacker Boss Bailey missed his second consecutive day with a sore right knee. Louis Green has filled in for Bailey with the first-team defense at strongside linebacker. Nate Webster will get the first chance to start ahead of Niko Koutouvides at middle linebacker.
Center Tom Nalen missed his fifth consecutive day with pain in his left knee.
Houston Texans - QB Rotation: Matt Schaub, Sage Rosenfels, Shane Boyd, rookie Alex Brink.
Coach Gary Kubiak is still working closely with backup QBs Shane Boyd and Alex Brink, and one of the two likely will be selected as the team.5?s third-stringer this season. Kubiak typically carries only two QBs on the roster, but because of the injuries suffered by Schaub last season, the Texans will likely carry three this year.
Kubiak said he is still unsure of where Boyd and Brink stand, but he will take a close look at them in preseason games. He may play one this week against the Broncos and the other the following week against the New Orleans Saints.
The new offensive coordinator is Kyle Shanahan, as 2007 offensive coordinator Mike Sherman is the new head coach at Texas A&M.
WR Andre Johnson is battling a sore groin.
RB depth a concern. Newly acquired RB Mike Bell continues to nurse a hamstring. Gary Kubiak didn't want to push RB Chris Brown Monday in his first practice back after almost a week. Ahman Green will get some carries against the Broncos.
Veteran cornerback Jimmy Williams is getting a scope done on his knee, and coach Gary Kubiak said he likely will be out for a significant amount of time.
St. Louis Rams - QB Rotation: Marc Bulger, Trent Green, Brock Berlin, Bruce Gradkowski.
QB Brock Berlin has looked more comfortable and more accurate than Gradkowski so far in camp. Gradkowski, who didn't join the Rams until the last week of June, has been playing catch-up. He basically missed the entire initial installation of new offensive coordinator Al Saunders' scheme.
The Rams have a new offensive coordinator in Al Saunders, who ran high scoring offenses in K.C. under Dick Vermeil.
RB depth a concern with star Stephen Jackson holding out.
LBs thin.
Upgrading the O-line is a key: Ram QBs were sacked 48 times last season and the running game was 25th.
RG Richie Incognito is in a three-way tussle with Brett Romberg and Mark Setterstrom for two starting slots: center and right guard. Romberg (center) and Setterstrom (right guard) opened camp as first-teamers, but both have missed time. When Romberg had a sore hand and couldn't snap the ball for several days, Incognito put in time at center. And with Setterstrom out now with a strained muscle near his knee, and Romberg back at center, Incognito is back at right guard.
Tennessee Titans - QB Rotation: Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Ingle Martin, Paul Thompson.
Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger returns to Tennessee after a two-year hiatus in Denver, replacing Norm Chow.
WRs thin, with Justin McCareins (hamstring) ailing.
Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth's work has been cut short in some practices because of soreness and tightness in his legs.
Dallas Cowboys - QB Rotation: Tony Romo, Brad Johnson, Richard Bartel.
WR depth thin.
With Terence Newman out with a torn groin muscle, rookie Mike Jenkins will start at left cornerback. CB Quincy Butler (hamstring) and Newman will not play in Saturday's game. Adam Jones said he expects to play about 1 1/2 quarters against the Chargers, while rookie Mike Jenkins and Anthony Henry are expected to start. Jones will play the right cornerback position.
The Cowboys have been working on a different kickoff coverage alignment, with the players lining up tight behind kicker Nick Folk before funneling out to their spots as Folk approaches the ball.
The Cowboys offense didn't run too many gadget plays last season, and OC Jason Garrett doesn't think you can get too cute too often. But the Cowboys have been practicing reverses aplenty in training camp as well as a few other "trick" plays.
San Diego Chargers - QB Rotation: Philip Rivers (2 series), Billy Volek (2-3rd Qs), Charlie Whitehurst (4th Q), Casey Bramlet.
QB Rivers will likely play a quarter (or two series), Billy Volek the middle two quarters and Charlie Whitehurst the final quarter.
Defensive line thin, with Luis Castillo (back), Shawne Merriman (knee) and Jamal Williams (knees) not 100%.
The Chargers led the NFL in takeaways, with 48, and interceptions, with 30. They've been practicing taking the ball away from opponents in practice again.
Buffalo Bills - QB Rotation: Trent Edwards, J.P. Losman, Gilbran Hamdan, Matt Baker.
Backup QB J.P. Losman is still bothered by a sore thumb, while 4th-string QB Matt Baker hurt his groin and did not practice Wednesday.
WR Josh Reed and strong safety Donte Whitner remained sidelined with lower back and ankle ailments. Dick Jauron does not expect either player to dress for Saturday's preseason opener in Washington.
Washington Redskins - QB Rotation: Jason Campbell (1st Q), rookie Colt Brennan (2nd Q), Todd Collins (3rd Q), rookie Sam Hollenbach.
This is the second game for the Redskins, after playing in the Hall of Fame Game (8/3).
Coach Jim Zorn said he might rotate his quarterbacks differently than he did in the preseason opener. Starter Jason Campbell again will open the game with the first team, but rookie Colt Brennan might go in next, instead of backup Todd Collins. Zorn wants to see Brennan operate in different aspects of the offense.
Jim Zorn is the new head coach. Zorn said the starters will play sparingly Saturday, though some who sat out Sunday, such as linebacker London Fletcher and defensive end Jason Taylor, could play a few snaps.
Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis is scheduled to make his preseason debut.
Wide outs thin. Top pick Devin Thomas is sidelined because of a strained hamstring. Rookie WR Malcolm Kelly underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and is expected to be out about two weeks.
Reserve tackles Todd Wade and Stephon Heyer will each miss at least two weeks with injuries. The starting offensive line is likely to play only a series or two Saturday, leaving inexperienced tackles responsible for the health of the backup quarterbacks.
Injuries have mounted since camp began. Defensive ends Phillip Daniels and Alex Buzbee suffered season-ending injuries on the first day. Linebackers H.B. Blades and Rian Wallace and starting defensive tackle Anthony Montgomery also have had surgery. In the Hall of Fame game, tackle Stephon Heyer sprained his right knee, and tackle Todd Wade was carted off having sprained an ankle.
The Redskins are being cautious with cornerback Carlos Rogers and linebacker Rocky McIntosh, both of whom are coming back from season-ending knee surgery, and neither will play.
Greg Blache is the new defensive coordinator, while Sherman Smith is offensive coordinator after OC Al Saunders left. Smith previously served as assistant head coach-running backs with the Tennessee Titans for 13 seasons.
Atlanta Falcons - QB Rotation: Chris Redman (1st Q), Joey Harrington, Matt Ryan, D.J. Shockley.
QB Chris Redman will start. Rookie QB Matt Ryan should get extended playing time. With Atlanta wanting to see how he handles NFL pressure, it wouldn't be shocking to see him play early and for a prolonged period. HC Mike Smith said he hopes to get each quarterback a relatively equal number of snaps against the Jaguars.
The Falcons have spent a lot of time re-tooling the running game. Tailbacks Thomas Brown and Jason Snelling should have a battle for the No. 3 job.
The new head coach is Mike Smith, with Mike Mularkey taking over as offensive coordinator. Smith was the defensive coordinator of the Jaguars and faces his old team here.
A young secondary: The Falcons could start Chris Houston (second year) and Brent Grimes (second year) and use Chevis Jackson (rookie) as the nickel back.
It is hard to get a read on the defensive line, since so many players (Jamaal Anderson, Jonathan Babineaux and John Abraham) have missed practice time with injuries and personal matters. Grady Jackson hasn't done much since signing last week.
WR Brian Finneran, who missed the past two seasons after tearing the ACL in the same knee, is making a strong case to be retained.
The Falcons re-signed former Georgia Tech tight end George Cooper Monday, a sign that No. 2 tight end Martrez Milner might not be available for Saturday's preseason opener.
*The Falcons have five assistant coaches who have spent time on the Jacksonville staff: offensive line coach Paul Boudreau (2003-05), defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder (2005), defensive line coach Ray Hamilton (2003-07), quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave (2003-04) and defensive backs coach Alvin Reynolds (2003-07).
Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Rotation: David Garrard, Cleo Lemon, Todd Bauman.
Jacksonville has a new defensive coordinator in Gregg Williams, who was with the Redskins last fall under Joe Gibbs.
Wide receiver position still isn't fixed. There are injuries to Jerry Porter (hamstring), Reggie Williams (knee), so Troy Williamson and Dennis Northcutt are listed as starters.
Offensive line is a weakness. The Jaguars will be without center Brad Meester for eight to 10 weeks and WR Reggie Williams for two to three weeks after both players underwent surgery last week.
Brian Williams' move from cornerback to safety might become permanent. The team listed Williams as the starter at strong safety, opposite second-year pro Reggie Nelson at free safety.
Indianapolis Colts - QB Rotation: Peyton Manning, Jim Sorgi (will start), Jared Lorenzen, Quinn Gray, Adam Tafarlis.
This is the second game for the Colts, after playing in the Hall of Fame Game (8/3).
Manning won't play, having minor bursa knee surgery in July. The recovery time is 4-6 weeks, so he will probably see little preseason action. Jim Sorgi will make his second start, but the rotation behind him will change. Jared Lorenzen probably will take over when Sorgi is finished, followed by Quinn Gray.
WR Marvin Harrison (knees) might not play Aug. 9 when the Colts visit the Panthers. But the coach assured that Harrison "will get his share in" during the preseason.
DE Dwight Freeney expects to miss the first three weeks of the preseason, but perhaps play in the fourth or fifth preseason game.
Defensive line thin with the retirement of Quinn Pitcock, creating a void at defensive tackle. Raheem Brock, a 27-game starter at tackle the past two seasons, has been moved to left end in the base defense and apparently will remain there even with Pitcock's decision.
LBs thin. They added LB Dedrick Harrington this week. Harrington's addition followed that of Brandon Archer's last week, and again was out of necessity. Injuries continue to deplete the position. Archer joined the list of ailing linebackers with an injury to his left ankle. Other linebackers missing practice include Gary Brackett (hip), Clint Session (calf), Victor Worsley (hamstring) and Philip Wheeler (knee).
With only five able-bodied linebackers, the Colts are playing a lot of nickel defense in practice. That means two linebackers instead of three with a defensive back -- Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden or Matt Giordano -- playing close to the line of scrimmage.
Carolina Panthers - QB Rotation: Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore, Brett Basanez, Lester Ricard.
Revamped Panthers offensive line: The coaches urged the guards and tackles to get bigger during the offseason.
Top pick Rookie RB Jonathan Stewart's right big toe, which had surgery in March, is still giving him some discomfort. They are being cautious and he will be a game time decision.
The Panthers suspended star WR Steve Smith without pay for the team's first two regular-season games for punching cornerback Ken Lucas.
Injuries continued to hit the defense when safety Chris Harris left early with a strained muscle in his upper right leg. Linebacker Jon Beason tweaked his ankle.
Tampa Bay Bucs - QB Rotation: Jeff Garcia, Luke McCown (1st Q), Brian Griese (2nd Q), Chris Simms, rookie Josh Johnson (see below).
QB Jeff Garcia has a strained calf and won't play. Luke McCown will open up at QB for the Bucs Saturday, with Brian Griese, Chris Simms and rookie Josh Johnson getting some snaps at Dolphin Stadium.
Jon Gruden clearly is frustrated with McCown's inconsistency, but admits that is to be expected from a young quarterback.
WRs thin. With WR Joey Galloway out, Maurice Stovall and Antonio Bryant have been splitting the reps at first-team split end. The Bucs have also worked Micheal Spurlock and rookie Dexter Jackson at that spot.
Miami Dolphins - QB Rotation: Josh McCown, John Beck, rookie Chad Henne.
QBs Beck and McCown have struggled in camp. McCown continues to work with the first-team offense, with second-year quarterback John Beck and rookie Chad Henne as backups.
The offensive line will certainly see its share of shake-ups, which likely will cause some considerable changes to the depth chart throughout the preseason. Justin Smiley is currently listed as the starter at left guard, and Trey Darilek is listed at right guard. Given Smiley's recent struggles on the left side and Donald Thomas' recent emergence on the right side, there's likely to be some different combinations used before anything is settled at that position, too.
Tony Sparano is the new head coach, a former assistant with Bill Parcells in Dallas. He is a proponent of a balanced offense.
Denver Broncos - QB Rotation: Jay Cutler, Patrick Ramsey, Darrell Hackney.
LBs thin. Linebacker Boss Bailey missed his second consecutive day with a sore right knee. Louis Green has filled in for Bailey with the first-team defense at strongside linebacker. Nate Webster will get the first chance to start ahead of Niko Koutouvides at middle linebacker.
Center Tom Nalen missed his fifth consecutive day with pain in his left knee.
Houston Texans - QB Rotation: Matt Schaub, Sage Rosenfels, Shane Boyd, rookie Alex Brink.
Coach Gary Kubiak is still working closely with backup QBs Shane Boyd and Alex Brink, and one of the two likely will be selected as the team.5?s third-stringer this season. Kubiak typically carries only two QBs on the roster, but because of the injuries suffered by Schaub last season, the Texans will likely carry three this year.
Kubiak said he is still unsure of where Boyd and Brink stand, but he will take a close look at them in preseason games. He may play one this week against the Broncos and the other the following week against the New Orleans Saints.
The new offensive coordinator is Kyle Shanahan, as 2007 offensive coordinator Mike Sherman is the new head coach at Texas A&M.
WR Andre Johnson is battling a sore groin.
RB depth a concern. Newly acquired RB Mike Bell continues to nurse a hamstring. Gary Kubiak didn't want to push RB Chris Brown Monday in his first practice back after almost a week. Ahman Green will get some carries against the Broncos.
Veteran cornerback Jimmy Williams is getting a scope done on his knee, and coach Gary Kubiak said he likely will be out for a significant amount of time.
St. Louis Rams - QB Rotation: Marc Bulger, Trent Green, Brock Berlin, Bruce Gradkowski.
QB Brock Berlin has looked more comfortable and more accurate than Gradkowski so far in camp. Gradkowski, who didn't join the Rams until the last week of June, has been playing catch-up. He basically missed the entire initial installation of new offensive coordinator Al Saunders' scheme.
The Rams have a new offensive coordinator in Al Saunders, who ran high scoring offenses in K.C. under Dick Vermeil.
RB depth a concern with star Stephen Jackson holding out.
LBs thin.
Upgrading the O-line is a key: Ram QBs were sacked 48 times last season and the running game was 25th.
RG Richie Incognito is in a three-way tussle with Brett Romberg and Mark Setterstrom for two starting slots: center and right guard. Romberg (center) and Setterstrom (right guard) opened camp as first-teamers, but both have missed time. When Romberg had a sore hand and couldn't snap the ball for several days, Incognito put in time at center. And with Setterstrom out now with a strained muscle near his knee, and Romberg back at center, Incognito is back at right guard.
Tennessee Titans - QB Rotation: Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Ingle Martin, Paul Thompson.
Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger returns to Tennessee after a two-year hiatus in Denver, replacing Norm Chow.
WRs thin, with Justin McCareins (hamstring) ailing.
Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth's work has been cut short in some practices because of soreness and tightness in his legs.
Dallas Cowboys - QB Rotation: Tony Romo, Brad Johnson, Richard Bartel.
WR depth thin.
With Terence Newman out with a torn groin muscle, rookie Mike Jenkins will start at left cornerback. CB Quincy Butler (hamstring) and Newman will not play in Saturday's game. Adam Jones said he expects to play about 1 1/2 quarters against the Chargers, while rookie Mike Jenkins and Anthony Henry are expected to start. Jones will play the right cornerback position.
The Cowboys have been working on a different kickoff coverage alignment, with the players lining up tight behind kicker Nick Folk before funneling out to their spots as Folk approaches the ball.
The Cowboys offense didn't run too many gadget plays last season, and OC Jason Garrett doesn't think you can get too cute too often. But the Cowboys have been practicing reverses aplenty in training camp as well as a few other "trick" plays.
San Diego Chargers - QB Rotation: Philip Rivers (2 series), Billy Volek (2-3rd Qs), Charlie Whitehurst (4th Q), Casey Bramlet.
QB Rivers will likely play a quarter (or two series), Billy Volek the middle two quarters and Charlie Whitehurst the final quarter.
Defensive line thin, with Luis Castillo (back), Shawne Merriman (knee) and Jamal Williams (knees) not 100%.
The Chargers led the NFL in takeaways, with 48, and interceptions, with 30. They've been practicing taking the ball away from opponents in practice again.
THIS WAS POST #34 IN THIS THREAD bring it back if you miss it and tell you how I feel now after both teams played there 1st game. They did just what I wanted them to do...Chi got a long ways to go...dont see that 9 wins this year...and Tenn kick ass!!!...they are on track
Ace
REGULAR SEASON TOTALS PLAY!
I look at each team base on what they did last year and what the oddsmakers set the line for this year....all factor was think out..
Over the last month I have places two bets in Las Vegas and 4 bets Online to get what I want on it. This line started at -114 when it 1st came out and now at most places its at -140...I got down two season totals plays the big one AVG -132 after placing all the Bets. The other Play is a dog play base on the Juice +110...Only put $800 on it...
Tenn over 8 wins......$800 to win $880
Going to make a simple statement....Last year they won 10 games...Las vegas think they will do 7 or less this year. After looking at everything I see 9-11 wins and they are worth a play!!! just my point of view.
Chi Under 8 wins......$6600 to win $5000
The biggest weakness for the Bears is the offensive unproductively. The QB curse has plagued Chicago for 60 years. They are very Inconsistency! from 2000 to 2002 they when from a record of 5-11 to 13-3 to 4-12! Last year 7-9 debacle. Evident last year Bear handled Green Bay two of its three losses all season and lost twice to the pathetic Lions. Rex Grossman is back and he will have to fight to keep against Kyle Orton. Does not matter which gets in, with their schedules they cant win over 6 games this year and the odds makers are saying they are better than last year by making them at eight! NO WAY.It took 4 online sports book and two casino in Vegas to place this bet. Each sports book limits action on this kind of bets. Its a easy way with a little work to make your bankroll bigger. Shop around. Going for 3-0 in last two years on this play. Last year it was Detroit winning over 6.5 and the other was Miami under 5, both won me $8k.
Best to all
Ace-Ace
<!-- / message -->
Ace
REGULAR SEASON TOTALS PLAY!
I look at each team base on what they did last year and what the oddsmakers set the line for this year....all factor was think out..
Over the last month I have places two bets in Las Vegas and 4 bets Online to get what I want on it. This line started at -114 when it 1st came out and now at most places its at -140...I got down two season totals plays the big one AVG -132 after placing all the Bets. The other Play is a dog play base on the Juice +110...Only put $800 on it...
Tenn over 8 wins......$800 to win $880
Going to make a simple statement....Last year they won 10 games...Las vegas think they will do 7 or less this year. After looking at everything I see 9-11 wins and they are worth a play!!! just my point of view.
Chi Under 8 wins......$6600 to win $5000
The biggest weakness for the Bears is the offensive unproductively. The QB curse has plagued Chicago for 60 years. They are very Inconsistency! from 2000 to 2002 they when from a record of 5-11 to 13-3 to 4-12! Last year 7-9 debacle. Evident last year Bear handled Green Bay two of its three losses all season and lost twice to the pathetic Lions. Rex Grossman is back and he will have to fight to keep against Kyle Orton. Does not matter which gets in, with their schedules they cant win over 6 games this year and the odds makers are saying they are better than last year by making them at eight! NO WAY.It took 4 online sports book and two casino in Vegas to place this bet. Each sports book limits action on this kind of bets. Its a easy way with a little work to make your bankroll bigger. Shop around. Going for 3-0 in last two years on this play. Last year it was Detroit winning over 6.5 and the other was Miami under 5, both won me $8k.
Best to all
Ace-Ace
<!-- / message -->
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]HOW TO UPDATE YOUR NFL POWER RATINGS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I mentioned a few articles ago that oddsmakers don't use power ratings in the preseason. The starters aren't on the field enough for those point differentials to matter. Other factors besides talent volume determine who wins in August.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I don't want you to think that I'm not spending any time on power ratings right now. In fact, I use the summer to update my numbers from last year. I won't post my official numbers here in the web articles. That's proprietary information I use when making my selections. But, I can tell you the process I use.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]At this point I've got numbers I'm fairly comfortable with. It's hard to miss by a mile in the NFL anyway because of competitive balance. You'll be in the neighborhood with most teams right off the bat. You have to keep an eye out for the possible surges or collapses that might bust the mold. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Before writing these numbers down in ink, I like to go back to last year and double check a few things. I ask myself these questions:[/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]HOW TO UPDATE YOUR NFL POWER RATINGS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I mentioned a few articles ago that oddsmakers don't use power ratings in the preseason. The starters aren't on the field enough for those point differentials to matter. Other factors besides talent volume determine who wins in August.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I don't want you to think that I'm not spending any time on power ratings right now. In fact, I use the summer to update my numbers from last year. I won't post my official numbers here in the web articles. That's proprietary information I use when making my selections. But, I can tell you the process I use.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]First, I grab last year's final numbers to use as a starting point. There's no reason to start from scratch when most teams are going to be relatively close to where they were last year. Parity is a fact of life in pro football. That means you've got a relatively tight range from top to bottom, and surprisingly small movements from year to year. The difference between a .500 team and a playoff team is just a field goal per game much of the time. The difference between .500 and being overmatched is about 3-4 points in the other direction. That's a general rule. Every so often one team will be very very good for awhile (like New England last year), or very very bad for awhile (like Oakland two years ago). For the most part, you're making subtle changes rather than wholesale changes. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The first thing I do when making adjustments is to just sit back and gauge the probable mood of the team. I try to determine who will be enthusiastic about the season because they've got a bunch of young budding stars. I try to find some old teams who might be ready to hit a wall (as Baltimore did last year). Is there a new coach who's going to light a fire under people? Is there a longtime coach who is showing signs of losing his players? Was their turmoil in the offseason? Were poisons kicked off the team? [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Okay, now it's time for specifics. Let's start with the draft. Who addressed a need by drafting a true impact player? Surprisingly, the answer is often NOBODY! Very few NFL rookies come in and have an immediate impact. Look through the first rounders to see if you can isolate a couple of possibilities. Try to be skeptical here. ESPN and the NFL Network spent draft day telling you how great all of these guys were. They were at the college level. Now they're stepping up in class. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Next, look at free agent acquisitions or trades. These aren't as common as they used to be, so this is actually a fairly easy step. There just aren't that many teams in 2008 hyping their "new" players that have come over from elsewhere. Often many of those new guys were overrated on their prior teams or they wouldn't have been available in the first place. Good teams find a way to keep their best talent. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]At this point I've got numbers I'm fairly comfortable with. It's hard to miss by a mile in the NFL anyway because of competitive balance. You'll be in the neighborhood with most teams right off the bat. You have to keep an eye out for the possible surges or collapses that might bust the mold. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Before writing these numbers down in ink, I like to go back to last year and double check a few things. I ask myself these questions:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Were there any teams so overwhelmed by injuries last year that it gave a false read on their season? If that team is healthy in 2008, then they may end up being a field goal better...or even more. My final 2007 numbers might be off for a team like that because I was grading a "shorthanded" unit. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Were there any teams that suffered extreme good or bad luck? Turnover differential plays a big role in determining who wins and loses. That's not something that holds up from year to year for most teams. A few are excellent at execution. On the other end, a few QB's are just plain turnover prone (like Kurt Warner of Arizona). Adjust a point or two toward the middle of the pack for any teams like this you find. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What a strength of schedule? Were there any teams that had misleading performances because they played very soft schedules? Were there any teams that weren't as bad as they seemed because they kept running into playoff contenders every week? This is a vital factor to consider when evaluating teams. Don't assume all 32 teams played equal schedules last year. Do some digging and see if you need to do any tweaking. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Gauging the mood of a team.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Evaluating the potential impact of new personnel.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Seeing how new coaches are handling the pressure. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Uncovering possible budding stars at the quarterback position. [/FONT]
