Exbookie Wants To Help The Players Week 1 Regseason

[ACE-ACE]

good read....something to think about

NFL IS FAST BECOMING LEAGUE LOADED WITH SUB-PAR QUARTERBACKS WHO CANNOT HIT A BULL IN THE BUTT WITH A HANDFUL OF RICE<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>​

MY FIGURES SAY THERE ARE ONLY 13 NFL QUARTERBACKS ON WHICH BETTORS CAN COUNT ON<o></o>​

<o> </o>​

<o> </o>​

By Kelso Sturgeon<o></o>​

<o> </o>​

I will be the first to admit it is unreasonable to expect each of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the National Football League to be a Joe Montana, a John Unitas or a Sammy Baugh but it is not unreasonable to expect the 32 to be able to hit a bull in the butt with a handful of rice—and many can’t.

It is embarrassing to watch some of these so-called starting quarterbacks in the NFL pre-season and it does not take a genius to realize that without some miraculous turn-around—some injection of judgment, skill and talent from outer space—that they have doomed their teams before the season even begins.

While miracles may occur anyone with 20-20 vision who watched Friday night’s Tennessee Titans 17-16 win over the visiting Oakland Raiders had to come away from that game knowing that both teams are in trouble with their current quarterbacks.

The Titans are going no where with Vince Young at quarterback, unless they throw out their offense and begin again with either the option or the single-wing. There also is some chance the split-T might work. Young, three years removed from <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Texas</st1lace></st1:State>, went to the Pro Bowl and was named Offensive rookie of the Year in his first season.

He regressed considerably last year, although he did get the Titans to the playoffs, where they lost 17-6 to the San Diego Chargers. Most NFL insiders credit <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State></st1lace>’s fifth-ranked defense for that 11-7 record.

Against Oakland Young played five series, completing 4-of-13 passes for 37 yards and seemed completely confused when it came to reading <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City></st1lace>’s rather uncomplicated pre-season defenses.

On the other side of the ball was second-year quarterback JaMarcus Russell who finished with 7-of-10 completions for 75 yards and a touchdown. Some said it was an excellent performance but my eyes said Raider fans can expect Russell to arrive sometime during the 2010 season, if even then.

Right now, last year’s number one draft choice can’t do it.

This is just my opinion but this is what I saw and there is little reason to think it is going to get any better, especially for Young who frankly would not be acceptable as a back-up on even some of mediocre teams in the NFL.
<o> </o>

Just 13 NFL Teams Have Quarterbacks You Can Count On<o></o>​

<o></o>​

It goes without saying that any player who can even get in the door of an NFL training camp has skills that rate at the highest level—and that goes in spades for quarterbacks. But, the issue of “highest level” is just the ticket to get into camp. It means little as the hundreds of players who are cut will tell you.

Those who handicap put numerical rating tags on every single player on every single NFL team and none are of more important than those assigned to quarterbacks. I have my own ratings and my figures say there currently are only 13 starting quarterbacks on which you can count to be there week after week and win for you.

Before naming the 13, those betting the pre-season must keep in mind that the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs and the <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Francisco</st1lace></st1:City> 49ers have no clue as to who will be their starting quarterbacks. Not one single signal-caller in those camps have want it takes to win right now in the NFL.

Sorry, but that’s the truth.

Here are the 13 true professional starting quarterbacks in the NFL, listed alphabetically by team.
<o> </o>
--<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City></st1lace> Panthers…Jake Delhomme<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City> Bengals…Carson Palmer<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> Browns…Derek Anderson<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> Cowboys…Tony Romo<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1lace></st1:City> Colts…Peyton Manning<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City> Jaguars…David Garrard<o></o>
--<st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace> Patriots…Tom Brady<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New Orleans</st1lace></st1:City> Saints…Drew Brees<o></o>
--<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New York</st1lace></st1:State> Giants…Eli Manning<o></o>
--<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:City></st1lace> Rams…Marc Bulger<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Diego</st1lace></st1:City> Chargers…Philip Rivers<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> Seahawks…Matt Hasselbeck<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> Steelers…Ben Roethlisberger<o></o>
<o> </o>
You will not there are many names of popular starting quarterbacks missing from this list but my figures say these are the 13 guys on which you can count to get it done under any and all conditions. All the rest are operating with big question marks.
<o> </o>

The Value Of <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Reading</st1:City></st1lace> Between The Lines, Even In The Pre-Season<o></o>​

<o> </o>
I know I have bored people through more than three decades of handicapping by continually driving home the point that winning is not just in things such as numbers, statistical data and line moves. These elements, and many others, certainly play a giant role in the process of analysis but winning requires far more—reading between the lines, for instance.

There is no better example of reading between the lines that Thursday night’s Pittsburgh Steelers-Buffalo Bills NFL pre-season game.

When game plans were announced, bettors grabbed them and within minutes had moved the number 2 ½ points. When both teams announced these plans, <st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City> was a 1 ½-point favorite for the game in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Toronto</st1lace></st1:City>. In less than 30 minutes, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> was the 1-point choice—and it was wiseguy money that moved the number.

The line move had everything to do with the fact <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> coach Mike Tomlin announced he would play his starting units for the first half. From the <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City></st1lace> camp came word from coach Dick Jauron that his starters would play but briefly.

But there is always more to the equation than one single element. One just had to think a bit to figure out things.

 

[LouHoltz]

good read....something to think about

NFL IS FAST BECOMING LEAGUE LOADED WITH SUB-PAR QUARTERBACKS WHO CANNOT HIT A BULL IN THE BUTT WITH A HANDFUL OF RICE<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>​

MY FIGURES SAY THERE ARE ONLY 13 NFL QUARTERBACKS ON WHICH BETTORS CAN COUNT ON<o></o>​

<o></o>


<o></o>


By Kelso Sturgeon<o></o>


<o></o>​

I will be the first to admit it is unreasonable to expect each of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the National Football League to be a Joe Montana, a John Unitas or a Sammy Baugh but it is not unreasonable to expect the 32 to be able to hit a bull in the butt with a handful of rice—and many can’t.

It is embarrassing to watch some of these so-called starting quarterbacks in the NFL pre-season and it does not take a genius to realize that without some miraculous turn-around—some injection of judgment, skill and talent from outer space—that they have doomed their teams before the season even begins.

While miracles may occur anyone with 20-20 vision who watched Friday night’s Tennessee Titans 17-16 win over the visiting Oakland Raiders had to come away from that game knowing that both teams are in trouble with their current quarterbacks.

The Titans are going no where with Vince Young at quarterback, unless they throw out their offense and begin again with either the option or the single-wing. There also is some chance the split-T might work. Young, three years removed from <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Texas</st1lace></st1:State>, went to the Pro Bowl and was named Offensive rookie of the Year in his first season.

He regressed considerably last year, although he did get the Titans to the playoffs, where they lost 17-6 to the San Diego Chargers. Most NFL insiders credit <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State></st1lace>’s fifth-ranked defense for that 11-7 record.

Against Oakland Young played five series, completing 4-of-13 passes for 37 yards and seemed completely confused when it came to reading <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City></st1lace>’s rather uncomplicated pre-season defenses.

On the other side of the ball was second-year quarterback JaMarcus Russell who finished with 7-of-10 completions for 75 yards and a touchdown. Some said it was an excellent performance but my eyes said Raider fans can expect Russell to arrive sometime during the 2010 season, if even then.

Right now, last year’s number one draft choice can’t do it.

This is just my opinion but this is what I saw and there is little reason to think it is going to get any better, especially for Young who frankly would not be acceptable as a back-up on even some of mediocre teams in the NFL.
<o></o>

Just 13 NFL Teams Have Quarterbacks You Can Count On<o></o>


<o></o>​

It goes without saying that any player who can even get in the door of an NFL training camp has skills that rate at the highest level—and that goes in spades for quarterbacks. But, the issue of “highest level” is just the ticket to get into camp. It means little as the hundreds of players who are cut will tell you.

Those who handicap put numerical rating tags on every single player on every single NFL team and none are of more important than those assigned to quarterbacks. I have my own ratings and my figures say there currently are only 13 starting quarterbacks on which you can count to be there week after week and win for you.

Before naming the 13, those betting the pre-season must keep in mind that the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs and the <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Francisco</st1lace></st1:City> 49ers have no clue as to who will be their starting quarterbacks. Not one single signal-caller in those camps have want it takes to win right now in the NFL.

Sorry, but that’s the truth.

Here are the 13 true professional starting quarterbacks in the NFL, listed alphabetically by team.
<o></o>
--<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City></st1lace> Panthers…Jake Delhomme<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City> Bengals…Carson Palmer<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> Browns…Derek Anderson<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> Cowboys…Tony Romo<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1lace></st1:City> Colts…Peyton Manning<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City> Jaguars…David Garrard<o></o>
--<st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace> Patriots…Tom Brady<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New Orleans</st1lace></st1:City> Saints…Drew Brees<o></o>
--<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New York</st1lace></st1:State> Giants…Eli Manning<o></o>
--<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:City></st1lace> Rams…Marc Bulger<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Diego</st1lace></st1:City> Chargers…Philip Rivers<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> Seahawks…Matt Hasselbeck<o></o>
--<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> Steelers…Ben Roethlisberger<o></o>
<o></o>
You will not there are many names of popular starting quarterbacks missing from this list but my figures say these are the 13 guys on which you can count to get it done under any and all conditions. All the rest are operating with big question marks.
<o></o>

The Value Of <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Reading</st1:City></st1lace> Between The Lines, Even In The Pre-Season<o></o>​

<o></o>
I know I have bored people through more than three decades of handicapping by continually driving home the point that winning is not just in things such as numbers, statistical data and line moves. These elements, and many others, certainly play a giant role in the process of analysis but winning requires far more—reading between the lines, for instance.

There is no better example of reading between the lines that Thursday night’s Pittsburgh Steelers-Buffalo Bills NFL pre-season game.

When game plans were announced, bettors grabbed them and within minutes had moved the number 2 ½ points. When both teams announced these plans, <st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City> was a 1 ½-point favorite for the game in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Toronto</st1lace></st1:City>. In less than 30 minutes, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> was the 1-point choice—and it was wiseguy money that moved the number.

The line move had everything to do with the fact <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> coach Mike Tomlin announced he would play his starting units for the first half. From the <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City></st1lace> camp came word from coach Dick Jauron that his starters would play but briefly.

But there is always more to the equation than one single element. One just had to think a bit to figure out things.

Please tell me Tony Romo is not on this list???????????????

That is an absolute joke for him to be on that list. He has not even won a
playoff game yet!!!!!!!!! Thats a joke.

Carson Palmer? Been to the playoffs one time and lost.

David Garrad? Started in this leauge for one year so far, can not even come close to having a full accurate read on him yet.

Derrick Anderson? As stated above has not even made the playoffs yet and is on a list of QB's you can count on.

Phillip Rivers? His team is stacked. He would be pathetic on a below par team.

Please explain to me how these guys i just listed make it on a list of Qb's you can count on week in and week out over Brett Farve. Thats awful

Donavan McNabb went to four NFC Champ games and a Super Bowl. Can not count on him right. I know the injuries are there but so are they for Delhomme, Palmer and those two do not have the credentials McNabb has.

 

[midman2161]

This list is another reason you don't trust NFL handicapping services... this guy is going to be giving out paid picks this season with the impression that Jake Delhomme coming off Tommy John surgery is a more reliable starter in this league than Brett Favre or Jay Cutler

 

[Timyg]

Please tell me Tony Romo is not on this list???????????????

That is an absolute joke for him to be on that list. He has not even won a
playoff game yet!!!!!!!!! Thats a joke.

quote]


whats does not having a play-off win have to do with consistancy throughout the season?

 

[NickelsAndDimes]

yea its got nothing to do with playoff experience..the original post was QBs you can trust when you bet on NFL regular season games....but without a doubt Donovan McNabb HAS to be on that list no question

 

[BaldEagle]

And I don't know how you can put Derek Anderson on that list with one good season which he stumbled at the end of. The guy was a nothing until last year... I would hardly call him "dependable"

 

[KidKash]

heres what that list should look like in my opinion

brady
manning
favre
palmer
rothlisberger
schaub
garrard
eli manning
mcnabb
romo
brees
hasselback
bulger

volek is just as good if not better than phillip rivers but like someone else said the chargers are stacked and just need there qb to manage the game.

jason campbell could end up on this list, he is in the right system for his style and has a good teacher in zorn.

 

[Timyg]

heres what that list should look like in my opinion

brady
manning
favre
palmer
rothlisberger
schaub
garrard
eli manning
mcnabb
romo
brees
hasselback
bulger

volek is just as good if not better than phillip rivers but like someone else said the chargers are stacked and just need there qb to manage the game.

jason campbell could end up on this list, he is in the right system for his style and has a good teacher in zorn.

thats a list of the best quaterbacks... not the ones that are best by betting standards... everyone knows romo and brady will have to cover over hyped spreads all year.. they might, but that doesnt make them the best choice to put your money on... i would rather have Delhomme than McNabb to consistantly cover or come within a spread week after week. Delhomme will prob be underated the first couple weeks anyways, prob a good value

 

[ACE-ACE]

Point of any writer is to make you think ..My friend Nick alway has something to think about.

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SHOULD YOU CONSIDER ENTERING HANDICAPPING CONTESTS IN NEVADA?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps and squares alike are getting ready for the many handicapping contests available for play in Las Vegas and Reno during the football season.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You've probably heard for years about the Hilton Contest, which is the granddaddy of them all. It costs $1,500 to enter...and there's a huge prize pool because there are so many contestants. It's kind of like the Main Event in the World Series of Poker because anybody anywhere can enter and win. Selections have to be posted in Las Vegas, so you out-of-towners would need a proxy to turn in your plays. This is very common, with proxies getting a percentage of any prize for their efforts. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Of course, I've been encouraging you to "think like a sharp," and "play like a sharp" ever since these web articles started. Since sharps play these contests, should YOU be playing them too? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The best advice is to only play them if you believe you have an edge. Sharps are convinced they do because of all the "dead money" entered in the events. They believe they have an edge over the public, therefore it's a "plus EV" proposition for them. Over time, they'll win more than they lose because of their knowledge and playing strategies. That's the theory anyway. I know a few sharps who grind out a profit most years by playing in every tourney they can find. I also know a few who haven't quite lived up to their own expectations. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You want to be a sharp, not dead money. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here are the steps you should take when deciding if you should get involved:[/FONT]​

• [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Do you have a history of success betting football? Be honest here. Don't cherrypick the good memories. How many winning seasons have you had? How many GREAT seasons have you had? It takes a great season to win a contest. Remember here that it's percentage and volume that mean the most, not your ability to find the occasional blowout. If you're knack is to find something that seems like a virtual lock every few weeks, then hit that play hard...well, that's not a tournament strategy. You need to have a proven track record playing 5-7 picks per week and putting up results.
  [/FONT]
• [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Do you focus on handicapping the teams, or spotting line value? Most of the guys I know who have been successful focus more on the latter than the former. They monitor line movements throughout the week, then play any stale numbers they see on the tournament cards (which are often printed up early in the week). I personally have respect for both approaches. All I can say is that tournament success in my view has been more directly connected to the line value guys than the nuts and bolts football guys.
  [/FONT]
• [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Can you have your plays ready before the weekend? Some bettors are great and making moves on game day as they monitor line movements and news/weather developments. That's of no use in tournaments. Plays must be posted hours, or even a day or so before the games are played. You can't wait until 15 minutes before kickoff to turn in the stuff you like best. Are you capable of that?
  [/FONT]
• [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Do you have time to find the tournaments that bet fit your style? There are college contests, pro contests, last man standing contests, heads up challenges, events where you just need a few picks per week, and events where you need several. You'll be best served by being honest about your own strengths and weaknesses, then finding a contest format that best lines up with that. Honestly, you need BOTH strengths and the right format to make a serious run at a profit playing these events. I think too many guys take shots at the Hilton who aren't ideally suited to picking exactly 5 NFL games per weekend, and who are overplaying their bankrolls with that big up-front investment.
  [/FONT]
• [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you don't live in Las Vegas or Reno, do you have a friend or cohort who does who can turn in your selections for you? Or, will you be travelling out here often enough to play some smaller events yourself? If you have to pay a proxy, that cuts into your EV. They don't put up any of your entry fees, but they get a cut of your winnings. Remember to factor that into the equation.
  [/FONT]
• [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Can you keep your cool if things don't start out well? I'm always amazed by how many people bail on a contest after a poor start thinking they don't have a chance to come back. The eventual winners usually have a bad week or two in the mix. It's impossible to be catch all the breaks and be right with all of your best opinions. I wonder how many potential winners never hung around long enough for their edges to show up? Or, can you avoid the urge to start betting the powerhouses when trying to catch up? I've seen this time and time again. Bettors turn into squares and lay bad numbers when they "have" to win on a given week. It's easier to be value from a position of strength. Do you have the discipline it takes to bet value from behind?
  [/FONT]
• [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Can your keep your cool if things DO start out well? It's funny how many people panic if they have a shot at landing in the money or winning an event. This also turns people into squares. Suddenly, they have to bet the big favorites every week because they want superstars on the field winning money for them. You don't get rich betting public teams. You don't win contests that way either. Do you have the discipline it takes to bet value teams when the money is really on the line? [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I've been on both sides of the fence here in Nevada. I love playing in tournaments and contests because I'll put my expertise up against anyone. I don't always win...but I give it my best shot. It takes quite a performance to beat me. When wearing my oddsmaker hat, I like coming up with events that will attract action and activity to my sportsbook. It's fun creating contests, and playing them. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That being said, it may not be right for you. You need the right strategies, mentality, and bankroll to put any potential edges in your favor. On the other hand, you may be ideally suited to contests but you've been avoiding them! Don't pass up free money when it's being offered. If you can make a solid case that contest play is plus EV for you, it's time to do some research in these days leading up to the regular season so you can maximize your profit potential this season. [/FONT]​

 

[DonDotta27]

Hey ace, whats the basis for betting football games. This is my first year really keepin my record in previous years i would bet my home team the giants and some monday night football games. Thanks.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Hey ace, whats the basis for betting football games. This is my first year really keepin my record in previous years i would bet my home team the giants and some monday night football games. Thanks.

if you are talking about what I base a game on it would be
ITS BASE ON FOUR THING
1..LINE-OFF
2..TIME
3..PENALTIES
4..TURN OVER ONLY BY THE TEAM


http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=321183&highlight=formula+LINE

if that is what you are asking?

 

[ACE-ACE]

good read from nick


8/19/2008


DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
BETTING MARKET TOO LOW SO FAR ON NFL TOTALS
It started with a high scoring Hall of Fame game with Indianapolis and Washington…and continued through this past Monday Night’s 37-34 shootout featuring the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants.
Points, points, and more points!
Overs are 20-13-1 by my count so far in the NFL Preseason. Some of you may have a different mark by a game or two depending on if you were using opening, closing, or widely available lines.
Why are there so many points this year? Several reasons based on the games I’ve been watching on satellite.
*Teams are coming out throwing. Getting your offense up to speed in the modern game of pro football means spreading people out and hitting quick looks to move the ball. It’s not exactly a hurry-up game. But, the effect is the same because the chains either move quickly, or the ball is punted to an opponent who will be doing the same thing. The pace has been very quick in a lot of these first quarters.
*Defenses are backing off a bit in these early games because there’s just no reason to kill yourself on that side of the ball right now. That means many first team offenses are having success moving the ball and getting into the end zone. I wouldn’t call it a “prevent” defense exactly. It’s just that coverage isn’t as tight as it’s going to be in a few weeks. Pass rushes aren’t as intense. And blitzing is relatively passive compared to what’s ahead too.
*Coaches are giving their second team quarterbacks an opportunity to run the same style of offense to make sure they’re ready in case of injury. So, even in the first week when starters didn’t go all that long, you still had this style of football for a substantial portion of the game. Frankly, I’m surprised at all the passing I’ve seen from the #2 quarterbacks. The last thing you want is to get those guys hurt. It’s a fine line. Coaches have decided to be aggressive with their backup signal callers, and it’s led to an increase in scoring from the most recent seasons.
*Wide open play often leads to turnovers and cheap points. If a QB makes a mistake in this approach, the ball can be returned the distance. We’ve seen a lot of that through two full weeks of action. In past years, it was often defensive or special teams points being the only thing that kept most games from staying Under. This year they’re just padding the scoring that’s already happening.
*Oddsmakers have kept the totals in past ranges…meaning a lot of numbers in the mid 30’s. Play has changed, but the market has been slow to adjust. A nudge up to a typical total of 37 or 38 would have done much of the work in terms of equalizing the won-lost record. That nudge didn’t happen. So, we had a lot of games flying Over, and a few landing in the 36-38 range to break the hearts of Under players.
Does this mean the rest of the Preseason is likely to be high scoring? Is this a sign that the regular season is going to be high scoring?
I don’t think so.
*This week should continue to see points go up because this is the game that teams take most seriously in terms of getting ready for the regular season. First team offenses will play at least half the night. Some teams will keep their starters in even longer. You do that with an emphasis on moving the chains and finding the end zone, and points are going to go up.
*The final week of games the following weekend could be really dead though. Coaches don’t want to get any of their key players hurt on either side of the ball. There’s almost a gentleman’s agreement to run out the clock and get ready for the season openers. If this upcoming week does continue the high scoring trend, I wouldn’t expect it to continue in the Preseason finales. The public is prone to overvalue Overs in those finale’s because they believe teams want to go out on a winning note. That hasn’t been true for YEARS in my view. Well, a few teams try to win those finale’s. Most wish they weren’t even on the schedule.
*You can’t make the mistake of assuming that the regular season is going to match this early high scoring trend. Defenses just aren’t going all out now. Blitz packages are vanilla if they exist at all. Offenses who are expert at grinding out the clock with a lead aren’t even on the field in the second half right now. They will be in September. We’ll see some shootouts because there are some high scoring teams with poor defenses. The league as a whole won’t necessarily be high scoring. If you anticipated the increase in scoring, congratulations. You were ahead of the curve. Just be aware that this might be a very short road that isn’t going to go much further. If you’re favorite team has looked sharp so far, hold off on buying those playoff tickets. They were facing much less aggression on defense than they’ll see in a few weeks. Each year we see a team or two look great in August only to lay an egg once the level of intensity picks up. We also see some teams who looked pretty bad really hit the ground running when the games matter. Be careful drawing conclusions from what you’re seeing on TV right now.

 

[DonDotta27]

hey ace, is their any way you can send me that spreadsheet. Im lookin to maybe give you some input each week. I know you don't probably need my help but I like to hear other people sides. So this year im lookin to follow you and some others. Thank You Sir!!!

 

[DonDotta27]

my email will prob get deleted if i post it on here. So if you are willing to send it ill ask wil for his help.

 

[pleasewin]

eli manning is a joke. i dont care if he won a super bowl or not. he is rex grossman in a giants uniform. one pass, one pass his receiver got lucky as hell by catching and all of a sudden you cant "count on him" joke.

 

[DonDotta27]

keep hating on eli manning just like every capper in vegas last playoffs!!

 

[pleasewin]

the last ten games

eli and giants covered at a 58% clip. i wouldnt say that was knocking down the door of greatness.

 

[ACE-ACE]

hey ace, is their any way you can send me that spreadsheet. Im lookin to maybe give you some input each week. I know you don't probably need my help but I like to hear other people sides. So this year im lookin to follow you and some others. Thank You Sir!!!

My E-mail you can see if you hit my name.....than view.....but my guy that update it every year has not answer his e-mail...so I have give it to a few to upgrade...if you know now...just e-mail me.

Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

more from nick on preseason

8/21/2008

DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

STATUS QUO IN NFLX HEADING INTO DRESS REHEARSAL WEEKEND ​

I’m always on the lookout for trends and tendencies in betting patterns that might signal something I should be aware of in sports betting. Because my feet are on both sides of the fence…I’m checking on things from the oddsmaking perspective, and the handicapping perspective.
I’d have to say that the NFL Preaseason so far has been typical through the first two weeks. Nothing out of the ordinary jumps out. The sharps have been winning. It’s not like they’re hitting all the big moves. I’d say that about six of every 10 moves have gotten there so far. The public has been on the short end of the stick, but not by much. As I’ve mentioned in the past, winning money in Exhibition games is all about having information. It’s a fight between the sharps and the oddsmakers to get there first. The public tends to bet without information. This hurts their cause significantly over the long haul. Through two weeks, it’s hurt them a little.
Action seems a bit brisker than in the past. I don’t have the numbers handy. But, the handle and overall traffic seem to be up to this point. I’m a bit surprised by that. The economy is heading in the wrong direction. Baseball betting is reportedly down in the state of Nevada as well even with all the great pennant races. The public would have been making a fortune betting since the All-Star break because favorites have been on fire. Sharps are complaining about the lack of dogs coming in. They love these high prices though, and figure to make back what they’ve lost in baseball once some of those dogs start hitting at the inflated prices. Football is up even if baseball is down.
In the upcoming dress rehearsal weekend, oddsmakers have to do some tweaking to their process. I mentioned a few weeks ago that the preseason lines are usually based on “gut” reactions to incoming information rather than overall power ratings. Now that starters will be on the field for a much longer time, it becomes a mix. The lines come closer to reflecting a regular season matchup. The totals have gone up too. You read the other day that it’s been a month of Overs so far. With offensive stars playing longer this week, the numbers had to shoot upward.
The biggest headache for oddsmakers this week has been the injuries. Some guys who were playing are going to be out. Some guys who weren’t playing are going to be on the field. Some starters will be out until the regular season openers, which means this week may not be a real dress rehearsal for those teams. It’s not as straightforward as it usually is for the guys putting up the numbers. If you’re trying to bet legally at those numbers, you should try very hard this week to find the soft spots.
Here’s my best advice:
*Read through internet and newspaper reports to see which teams will be going all out with their starters, and which will still be holding back. You’ve already seen this year that an edge like that can be worth more than a touchdown. If the backups are any good, it can be worth even more. There will definitely be some one-sided covers this week in my opinions.
*Look for spots to bet Overs too. If two offenses in the same game are both going all out, you’re going to see final scores in the mid 40’s or higher. Oddsmakers just won’t post numbers that high because the action wouldn’t balance.
*Study boxscores from the first two full weeks to see which second and third teamers have been putting up good numbers. Those guys were covering spreads before, and could be the difference-maker this week. If the starters “cancel out” in games between evenly matched teams, the backups will determine who gets the money.
*Respect line moves. In the first two weeks, some of the numbers were moving on air. If there was any hint of sharp action, the numbers would move lightning fast. There were stores moving their lines even though no action was coming in. In a week like this, oddsmakers are more confident of their numbers and less likely to move blindly. When you DO see a line move, it’s based on something real you should be paying attention to. In the first two weeks, all a sharp had to do was breathe and the line would move.
*Look over Week Three results from the past few seasons to see which head coaches really emphasize this game. I’ve had great results with this approach in past years. Some guys are really focused on getting a result, and they’ll do what it takes to win and cover. Others want to see the starters play a good first half. They don’t care what happens after that. The last thing you want to do is bet on a team that only cares for a half (unless you’re betting first half lines).
*Comb through those same results to see which coaches don’t really have full dress rehearsals. A few are confident enough from what they see in practices to save peak intensity for the regular season. This is particularly true of veteran coaches with veteran players. They’re just not going to worry about an August score. Young coaches and young players are a much better bet. *Do your best to find spots where the right kind of edges line up. It’s a dream scenario to have a team that cares against a team that doesn’t, or a team with good backups against a team with bad backups. Don’t forget that home field can play into this too. If it’s the last home game for a team, they might give that extra effort late in the game to put you over the top if need be. If the road team is playing at home next week, they might be saving that something extra for the finale.

 

[ACE-ACE]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=432 bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>From my guy at doc's sports

NFL Facts
by T.O. Whenham - 08/21/2008

NFL fans love NFL facts. At least some do. If you are one of them then this article is for you. Here is a collection some useful NFL facts, and others that you probably don't need to know. Just because you don't need to, though, doesn't mean you don't want to. Without further ado, onto the NFL facts:
--Up until 1912, a touchdown was only worth five points
--The American Professional Football Association became the NFL on June 24, 1922. The Chicago Staleys became the Chicago Bears that year, and are the only team not to change name or city.
--The first night game was played in 1929 in Providence against the Chicago Cardinals.
--The first Pro Bowl was played Jan. 15, 1939 at Wrigley Field. The New York Giants beat the Pro All-Stars, 13-10.
--The AFL was started in 1940.
--CBS was the first network to broadcast games, in 1956. By 1965 they were paying $18.8 million per year for the rights.
--The Super Bowl trophy was renamed the Vince Lombardi trophy in 1970, the year Lombardi died.
--When Art Shell became the coach of the Raiders in 1989 he was the first African-American coach since Fritz Pollard in 1921 in Akron.
--College juniors became eligible for the NFL Draft in 1990 as long as they renounced their college eligibility before the draft.
--In 1990 every team had won at least one game in the first four weeks of the season. That hadn't happened since 1957.
--The 10,000th regular season game was played Oct. 5, 1997. The Seahawks beat the Tennessee Oilers, 16-13, in Seattle.
--In 2001 George Bush became the first President to do a regular season coin toss. Via satellite from the White House he tossed the coin for 10 games that started at once on Sept. 9. Needless to say, there were no games the next week.
--The Houston Texans became the 32nd and, to date, final expansion team in 2002. Tony Boselli was the first pick in the expansion draft. Injuries made him a bust.
--Within less than a month in 2002, running back Walter Payton lost two significant records. On Sept. 29 Jerry Rice passed him for most all-purpose yards. On Oct. 27, Emmitt Smith passed him to become the career rushing leader.

Here are some frequently asked questions for current and past NFL seasons:
When does the NFL season start? - The season starts Thursday, Sept. 4, when Washington visits the Giants. The rest of the games are Sunday except for two Monday night games.
How is the NFL Schedule determined? - See this article on the NFL Schedule Formula
Who was the first black NFL quarterback? - There are a few answers. On Oct. 18, 1953, Willie Thrower of the Bears was the first African-American to take a snap in a pro game. It wasn't until 1968, though, that Marlin Briscoe, a rookie with Denver, became the first African-American starter. Doug Williams was the first to win a Super Bowl, and Warren Moon was the first African-American QB in the NFL Hall of Fame.
Who is the shortest player in the NFL? - J.J. Moses and Darren Sproles are both 5'6"
What is the average NFL salary? - Given the salary cap in 2008, the average salary will be approximately $2.27 million
What is the starting salary in the NFL? - The minimum NFL player salary for rookies is $285,000
What is the perimeter of an NFL football field? - The field is 300 feet or 100 yards long, and 160 feet or 53 1/3 yards wide, so the perimeter is 920 feet or 306 2/3 yards.
Who is the fastest man in the NFL? - Cornerback Justin Miller of the Jets won the NFL's Fastest Man competition in 2007, though many would argue that Devin Hester is faster.
How long was the longest NFL punt? - On Sept. 21, 1969, Steve O'Neal of the Jets punted 98 yards against the Broncos.
What are the highest NFL salaries? - As of 2007: Dwight Freeney, Colts, $30.75 million; Marc Bulger, Rams, $17.5 million; Leonard Davis, Cowboys, $17 million; Gaines Adams, Buccaneers, $15.4 million; Robert Geathers, Bengals, $14 million
Who is the highest paid player in the NFL? - Dwight Freeney
How many NFL football teams are there? - 32
Who is the oldest franchise in the NFL? - The Arizona Cardinals can trace their history back to 1890 in Chicago.
Who threw the most interceptions in the NFL (all-time)? - Brett Favre with 288 as of 2007. (He also has the most touchdowns)
What was the first NFL team? - The Arizona Cardinals (then the Chicago Cardinals)
What NFL team has the best record (all-time)? - The Bears have the most wins, and the Cowboys have the best winning percentage
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