Currently, lots of good value, hopefully within 3 years the housing market will remain a buyers market and you can find a good place. I live right next to red rock, so it's been great playing second half lines. If you need any help with anything let me know, the least I can do for you since tailing your picks.
my preseaon pick for the HOF game is now posted...All preseaon will be in this thread http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?p=5611937#post5611937
next up will be my Season total play after Noon EST
more as it comes
Ace-Ace
next up will be my Season total play after Noon EST
more as it comes
Ace-Ace
one more footnote before I post my season total play...from my friend NICK
THE SPORTSBOOKS ALWAYS LOSE MONEY ON REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS!
Why do they offer them if it's a money loser? It's kind a "loss leader" to keep the public visiting your store so that they'll lose big money over the course of the regular season. A lot of ads you see in your Sunday supplements for department stores or drug stores have products for sale below cost. That's done to get you into the store in the first place, and coming back to buy more later. Same principal. The sportsbooks have regular season win totals up as a courtesy to the small percentage of the public that bets them.
Unfortunately for the casinos, sharps can also bet them do, and generally do a great job of finding the soft spots. This is very strong evidence that YOU should be working on these and betting them. Soft spots do exist.
Here are the keys you should consider:
THE SPORTSBOOKS ALWAYS LOSE MONEY ON REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS!
Why do they offer them if it's a money loser? It's kind a "loss leader" to keep the public visiting your store so that they'll lose big money over the course of the regular season. A lot of ads you see in your Sunday supplements for department stores or drug stores have products for sale below cost. That's done to get you into the store in the first place, and coming back to buy more later. Same principal. The sportsbooks have regular season win totals up as a courtesy to the small percentage of the public that bets them.
Unfortunately for the casinos, sharps can also bet them do, and generally do a great job of finding the soft spots. This is very strong evidence that YOU should be working on these and betting them. Soft spots do exist.
Here are the keys you should consider:
- What's the mood of the team entering the 2008 season? Are they optimistic about big things after a great 2007? Are they demoralized because things seem to be falling apart. Whenever there's a big change from one year to the next in the NFL, it can often be tied to the general atmosphere around a team. They have a sense they're about to "arrive," or, they know things are about to get really bad.
- How did each team do in the draft? There are very few college players who can come in and turn a team around. But, some franchises were able to find multiple contributors. Something like that is worth a win or two.
- What happened with trades and free agency? Each offseason there are usually one or two teams that made clear improvements, and one or two that got fleeced because they have no idea what they're doing. If you follow football closely, you can usually evaluate the trades and transactions properly.
- Were there any coaching changes? Sometimes the BIGGEST moves come when a bad team finally gets rid of an incompetent head coach and replaces him with somebody who knows what they're doing. This can lift a 2-14 team to 8-8 in a finger snap. Conversely, a 7-9 team that acted too rashly can plummet to 3-13 because the new guy is in over his head. Look over the teams who changed coaches and see what you can find.
Ace: Gr8 posts and picks; as usual..>>>
When at an Rx Bash; I routinely ask who i consider to be the best cappers; who generally are at least 40 years old; what can consistently bring profits at sports betting. Going for scalps and playing season win totals is mentioned by 80% of these sharps.
Just what I've seen.
Good Luck this season in Foots; don't let the jealous small-minded cretins that attack your thread affect your posting.
GL
%^_
When at an Rx Bash; I routinely ask who i consider to be the best cappers; who generally are at least 40 years old; what can consistently bring profits at sports betting. Going for scalps and playing season win totals is mentioned by 80% of these sharps.
Just what I've seen.
Good Luck this season in Foots; don't let the jealous small-minded cretins that attack your thread affect your posting.
GL
%^_
REGULAR SEASON TOTALS PLAY!
I look at each team base on what they did last year and what the oddsmakers set the line for this year....all factor was think out..
Over the last month I have places two bets in Las Vegas and 4 bets Online to get what I want on it. This line started at -114 when it 1st came out and now at most places its at -140...I got down two season totals plays the big one AVG -132 after placing all the Bets. The other Play is a dog play base on the Juice +110...Only put $800 on it...
Tenn over 8 wins......$800 to win $880
Going to make a simple statement....Last year they won 10 games...Las vegas think they will do 7 or less this year. After looking at everything I see 9-11 wins and they are worth a play!!! just my point of view.
Chi Under 8 wins......$6600 to win $5000
The biggest weakness for the Bears is the offensive unproductively. The QB curse has plagued Chicago for 60 years. They are very Inconsistency! from 2000 to 2002 they when from a record of 5-11 to 13-3 to 4-12! Last year 7-9 debacle. Evident last year Bear handled Green Bay two of its three losses all season and lost twice to the pathetic Lions. Rex Grossman is back and he will have to fight to keep against Kyle Orton. Does not matter which gets in, with their schedules they cant win over 6 games this year and the odds makers are saying they are better than last year by making them at eight! NO WAY.It took 4 online sports book and two casino in Vegas to place this bet. Each sports book limits action on this kind of bets. Its a easy way with a little work to make your bankroll bigger. Shop around. Going for 3-0 in last two years on this play. Last year it was Detroit winning over 6.5 and the other was Miami under 5, both won me $8k.
Best to all
Ace-Ace
I look at each team base on what they did last year and what the oddsmakers set the line for this year....all factor was think out..
Over the last month I have places two bets in Las Vegas and 4 bets Online to get what I want on it. This line started at -114 when it 1st came out and now at most places its at -140...I got down two season totals plays the big one AVG -132 after placing all the Bets. The other Play is a dog play base on the Juice +110...Only put $800 on it...
Tenn over 8 wins......$800 to win $880
Going to make a simple statement....Last year they won 10 games...Las vegas think they will do 7 or less this year. After looking at everything I see 9-11 wins and they are worth a play!!! just my point of view.
Chi Under 8 wins......$6600 to win $5000
The biggest weakness for the Bears is the offensive unproductively. The QB curse has plagued Chicago for 60 years. They are very Inconsistency! from 2000 to 2002 they when from a record of 5-11 to 13-3 to 4-12! Last year 7-9 debacle. Evident last year Bear handled Green Bay two of its three losses all season and lost twice to the pathetic Lions. Rex Grossman is back and he will have to fight to keep against Kyle Orton. Does not matter which gets in, with their schedules they cant win over 6 games this year and the odds makers are saying they are better than last year by making them at eight! NO WAY.It took 4 online sports book and two casino in Vegas to place this bet. Each sports book limits action on this kind of bets. Its a easy way with a little work to make your bankroll bigger. Shop around. Going for 3-0 in last two years on this play. Last year it was Detroit winning over 6.5 and the other was Miami under 5, both won me $8k.
Best to all
Ace-Ace
Last year In preseason in the 1st 3 weeks(4th week is a joke)
over won 57% of the time
dogs won 61% of the time
I alway see from posted "alway bet under the 1st week"
last year it was 9 under 8 over counting the HOF game
not much of a edge
tip in preseason games
Coaching Strategy: An understanding of what coaches are trying to accomplish each week in August is essential. With four preseason games to play, NFL coaches will typically go with starters one quarter or less in the first August game, one quarter-plus in second game, the first half and into the third quarter in the third game, and then very little in the fourth game. Keeping starters healthy while getting them some competition against the opponents' first stringers are the obvious reasons.
Coaches will often use "vanilla" game plans, working on short passes and running plays. This is why preseason totals are lower than the regular season. For example, in the first preseason game last August, the high-powered Saints played the Steelers and the total was 34. It went under in a 20-7 Pittsburgh win. If the game had been during the regular season, the total would have been closer to 44 with two big-name QBs in Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger. In fact, when the Saints opened the season at the Colts, the total was 53. In the third preseason game, with starters projected to play more, the Saints total against the Chiefs jumped up to 37 (it was a push in 30-7 final). Working on basic plays and keeping things simple are often the case for the first two weeks of preseason.
over won 57% of the time
dogs won 61% of the time
I alway see from posted "alway bet under the 1st week"
last year it was 9 under 8 over counting the HOF game
not much of a edge
tip in preseason games
Coaching Strategy: An understanding of what coaches are trying to accomplish each week in August is essential. With four preseason games to play, NFL coaches will typically go with starters one quarter or less in the first August game, one quarter-plus in second game, the first half and into the third quarter in the third game, and then very little in the fourth game. Keeping starters healthy while getting them some competition against the opponents' first stringers are the obvious reasons.
Coaches will often use "vanilla" game plans, working on short passes and running plays. This is why preseason totals are lower than the regular season. For example, in the first preseason game last August, the high-powered Saints played the Steelers and the total was 34. It went under in a 20-7 Pittsburgh win. If the game had been during the regular season, the total would have been closer to 44 with two big-name QBs in Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger. In fact, when the Saints opened the season at the Colts, the total was 53. In the third preseason game, with starters projected to play more, the Saints total against the Chiefs jumped up to 37 (it was a push in 30-7 final). Working on basic plays and keeping things simple are often the case for the first two weeks of preseason.
Ace,
First off, glad to see you around these parts this time of year for sure. I really like your Chicago bet and I think its a winner. I've been looking at that bet and taking Minny Over 8.5 games for the season.
Currently, I've got Chicago pegged at what I feel is a very very generous 6 wins this season. I hope I'm wrong, but i'm usually not in matter such as these. I hope they get slaughtered and pick up a nice draft pick next year. Wish we had got Colt Brennan but its not going to matter with our O-line anyway...
BOL and i'll seeya around bub
First off, glad to see you around these parts this time of year for sure. I really like your Chicago bet and I think its a winner. I've been looking at that bet and taking Minny Over 8.5 games for the season.
Currently, I've got Chicago pegged at what I feel is a very very generous 6 wins this season. I hope I'm wrong, but i'm usually not in matter such as these. I hope they get slaughtered and pick up a nice draft pick next year. Wish we had got Colt Brennan but its not going to matter with our O-line anyway...
BOL and i'll seeya around bub
