ERockMoney Soccer 2013-2014

[ERockMoney]

Cameroon: The long shot of the group can’t be too disappointed with the draw having two struggling sides in the mix. However, I still don’t see them getting through to the next round. They do match up better, strategically, against Brazil than either Croatia or Mexico and could have the advantage of facing Brazil in the group stage finally when they have already captured the group and possibly take their foot off the gas and/or don’t play their true “A” side.

Cameroon have been excellent scoring from set pieces and in their long range attack, conversely, they are probably the weakest side in the tournament at defending set pieces and have a tendency to be dominated in the air.

The Cameroon attack is very inconsistent, but can show flashes of brilliance. Defensively the side is sound and will likely attempt to steal 1-0 victories locking things down if they can secure a lead. There is talent here, led by the ageless Samuel Eto’o and some strength in the midfield with Song and Makoun. I’ve always viewed this side as fragile and expect the opener to dictate their tournament. If things don’t open well the floor could fall out, but a fast start could ignite this side.

Could it happen?

• Brazil dominates the group and in the blink of an eye they are eliminated from the tournament by a very difficult Group B runner-up?
• Cameroon stumble through the first two matches and backdoor the group against a disinterested Brazil team that is not a full strength?

Thoughts:

Brazil cruise to nine points and Mexico slip into the second spot. Mexico would have a very high probability to go down to the Group B winner while if Brazil gets past the runner-up I think they run the table. As mentioned earlier in the thread I already have a Brazil play to win at +350 (need to double check that figure).

 

[ERockMoney]

Against conventional wisdom I played Brazil in a rout today. Opening matches are usually very tight and lower scoring. There has only be one opening match of the last ten that was won by more than one goal and that was the “controversial ball” from the 2006 Cup in Germany. In addition, only two of the ten matches went over 2.5 goals. Brazil has only won one opening match by more than one goal in the last 8-9 Cups, although over that stretch they have won every opening game, albeit, typically very close. Despite all this, my play is more about Croatia and less about Brazil. I have been fading this side for a while now with solid success. Their plodding attack the wing and crowd the box play will not work whatsoever versus arguably the best back line in the tournament.


The key is Brazil hitting one early, which should open Croatia, who are already weak in the back line IMO, a bit and allow Brazil to appease the home crowd with a late one or two. Mandzukic is suspended for Croatia, which eliminates their main goal scoring presence up front. Unfortunately, I see far too many ended up in the same place as me, for different reasons, but the same place nonetheless, which usually isn’t a good sign.


0.7 Brazil -1.5 (+108)
0.3 Brazil -2, -2.5 (+220)
0.1 Brazil 3-0 +700

GL to all, enjoy the matches and may your side show well in the tournament.

 

[ERockMoney]

+0.506

I was very fortunate to turn a profit yesterday aided by a horrendous call be the referee on the penalty kick and a late injury time goal from Oscar on a play where the Croatian defense fell asleep and some poor judgement from the goalkeeper.

1.0 Mexico/Cameroon Under 2, 2.5 -130
0.1 Mexico 1-0 +550

I'm expecting a defensive affair here with both sides playing a bit conservative, especially early. Cameroon tend to play a more defensive game and don't concede many goals while struggling to score goals. The African side will likely try to clog the midfield and rely on Eto'o for offense. Mexico lack any real pace in the midfield and will likely play a more defensively, especially with the weather conditions where it should be extremely hot and humid in Natal.

Cameroon are terrible defending set pieces, which could play a factor in the outcome of this match. I'm going to ride a scoreless match into the second half with Mexico finally getting one for the win.

GL to all.

 

[ChefZeke]

I like the Under too but I just cant pull the trigger ... this Brazilian ball is nothing like the last World Cup ball which always seemed to rise and take off

 

[ERockMoney]

I like the Under too but I just cant pull the trigger ... this Brazilian ball is nothing like the last World Cup ball which always seemed to rise and take off

I was pretty fortunate to hit these wagers, as Mexico should have had about three and Cameroon blew some chances as well.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[easy_money]

Nice hit on the Mexico game. Playing anything else today?

 

[LexingtonBrass]

I played the under as well E Rock in that Mexico game! I guess a little luck never hurt. Nice work and continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

+2.056

0.6 Holland PK +235
0.4 Holland ML +475
0.1 Holland 2-1 +2000

My consortium, as I like to refer to it as, of resources I discuss the matches with mostly think I'm nuts, but I don't like Spain in this WC and think they may not even make it out of the group. It turns my stomach a bit to even suggest that, but I'm riding it. My perception is that there is something off with Spain currently and they are getting a little long in the tooth. Costa scares me if healthy, but I'm not convinced he truly is at full strength.

A side with the experience, discipline and defensive ability seems unlikely to falter, especially today against a younger, inexperienced Dutch side. I get that, but I see value in this line and the perception this is 2010-2012 Spain, when I just don't think it is.

GL with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

I played the under as well E Rock in that Mexico game! I guess a little luck never hurt. Nice work and continued success.

I have been incredibly fortunate to be on the side the controversy favors with just about every wager thus far. This type of stuff usually balances out, but hopefully I can ride the favorable outcomes a bit longer.

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

Nice hit on the Mexico game. Playing anything else today?

EM,

I hope all is well my friend.

I'm playing Dutch ML and PK (40/60), but I would proceed with caution. The majority of folks I talk with who I respect for their knowledge gambling and soccer wise seem to think I'm crazy, which is more than understandable based on the talent and experience Spain brings to the table.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

amazing result for u. on the money. spain looks so shaky

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

EM,

I hope all is well my friend.

I'm playing Dutch ML and PK (40/60), but I would proceed with caution. The majority of folks I talk with who I respect for their knowledge gambling and soccer wise seem to think I'm crazy, which is more than understandable based on the talent and experience Spain brings to the table.

I didn't...cheers

 

[TheSpecialOne]

+2.056

0.6 Holland PK +235
0.4 Holland ML +475
0.1 Holland 2-1 +2000

My consortium, as I like to refer to it as, of resources I discuss the matches with mostly think I'm nuts, but I don't like Spain in this WC and think they may not even make it out of the group. It turns my stomach a bit to even suggest that, but I'm riding it. My perception is that there is something off with Spain currently and they are getting a little long in the tooth. Costa scares me if healthy, but I'm not convinced he truly is at full strength.

A side with the experience, discipline and defensive ability seems unlikely to falter, especially today against a younger, inexperienced Dutch side. I get that, but I see value in this line and the perception this is 2010-2012 Spain, when I just don't think it is.

GL with your action.

excellent calls

 

[jblonghorn]

Wow. Any play on the Oz vs Chile game?

 

[ERockMoney]

SBD, CTLS, SO and JBL -

Thank you. I certainly wasn't expecting that demolition, but a majority of the Spanish players just seem off to me, especially the Barca contingent. Its so difficult to remain on top for an extended period of time at this level, I suppose all the matches fro club and country, wear and tear, age and possibly even drive may be slipping a bit for the core of the Spanish side. I'll likely come right back and play Chile versus Spain as well, but I'll need to think on that bit.

 

[ERockMoney]

+5.266

1.0 Chile -1.5, -2 +175
0.5 Chile to score in both halves +160
0.1 Chile 3-0 +1000

I'm a big fan of the Chileans and think they have an excellent opportunity to win this group on SA soil. They play a frenzied attacking game and have some world class talent up front that play very cohesively together in Sanchez, Vargas, Vidal, etc. This side attacks the net as well as any nation here. They are surgical on set pieces and one of the best at defending set pieces.

Because of their attacking style of play Chile tend to allow a lot of goals, especially when the all out attack fails and they get countered going the other way. I'm not a fan of the Australian side and suspect they will completely outmatched in all three group games. A clean sheet for Chile may be a stretch, but they should be able to put a few past the inferior Aussies. Goal differential could be an issue in this group, although Spain at a -4 already could alter that. I expect Chile to pile it on if given the opportunity.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

already on almost all of these. good.

 

[TheSpecialOne]

SBD, CTLS, SO and JBL -

Thank you. I certainly wasn't expecting that demolition, but a majority of the Spanish players just seem off to me, especially the Barca contingent. Its so difficult to remain on top for an extended period of time at this level, I suppose all the matches fro club and country, wear and tear, age and possibly even drive may be slipping a bit for the core of the Spanish side. I'll likely come right back and play Chile versus Spain as well, but I'll need to think on that bit.

Could not have said it better my self. I'll be looking at your opinion for the reminder of the games in this group. Well done. Especially on the ML hit

 

[TheSpecialOne]

For Spain to fall twice though. I don't know, but all is possible in this world

 

[ERockMoney]

+6.841

1.0 Colombia/Greece Under 2, 2.5 -125
0.4 Colombia/Greece Draw +230
0.1 Colombia/Greece 0-0 +600

1.0 Japan +188
0.5 Anytime goal scorer Kagawa +350

Oddly enough, +700 is available at a couple shops I don't have access to for the scoreless draw, yet Under 0.5 at many of the same books is +500? Isn't 0-0 the same thing as Under 0.5, yet one is +600/+700 and the other is +500?

I'm all over Colombia in this tournament, even without Falcao, but I think they struggle with this group and actually finish second. I sprinkled some on Colombia to win, Colombia to reach the final, Colombia v Brazil final, Colombia semis, etc.

Greece, while not particularly easy on the eyes, always seems to get results and do well on the biggest stages. I really favor Japan in this group, as a poor mans Chile, if you will. Honda and Kagawa are electric together and I'm impressed, at least from a national team perspective, with the some of the younger talent on Japan. I'm in the minority, but expect Ivory Coast to flame out in this tournament and expect them to be lucky to even get a point. They are not short on talent, but never really play well together IMO and struggle mightily defensively. Yaya is a stud, but health is a concern and I always viewed him as a talent that shuts off under adversity and/or when things don't go his way. He isn't playing on City here and adversity should be in abundance. I slammed this squad at U 3.5 points +money a month or so ago.

I'll be back with some thoughts on the other games. I may lay off Uruguay/Costa Rica or lay something small on the Ticos ML and/or PK. Uruguay was the darling of the last WC, which usually spells doom as that dance is very difficult to repeat. I'm just not sure if CR has enough in them to start that process. Probably hit the draw on Italy/England, but that smells a bit, as much as the Under. Everyone, everywhere is literally on the draw and the Under and the weather angle is getting beat to death. I can't say I disagree though, but damn when this many line up on the same side its usually sending sheep to the slaughter.

Best of luck.