ERockMoney Soccer 2013-2014

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Quick thoughts on this weeks La Liga matches:

Espanyol v Granada (-110/+225/+330) – Can’t back the home side at this price, should be around +130 according my analysis

Almeria v Atletico (+900/+500/-400) – Atletico are red hot, but over priced at a very steep -400 on the road

Vallecano v Malaga (+140/+220/+200) – I want to back Malaga here at a very reasonable price, but am having the feeling I’m being drawn in here

Madrid v Villarreal (-303/+450/+650) – Odds a pretty tight here, Madrid off a draw and returning home to face a poor road side off a home win, just don’t see Madrid struggling in any way here

Valencia v Betis (-250/+375/+600) – Odds align almost identically with mine – pass

Osasuna v Getafe (+110/+240/+240) – Strong lean towards the home side, but not at this cheap a price

Sociedad v Levante (-227/+330/+550) – Sociedad have been excellent at home and equally brutal on the road. This is probably underpriced for the favorite who should be closer to -280/-300

Valladolid v Elche (+105/+220/+275) – I really wanted to back Valladolid pre-line, but was hoping for a bit more. Still might pull the trigger on this one

Sevilla v Barca (+550/+310/-200) – Seems a bit much for Barca away from home, but they are off a home loss which concerns me – pass

Vigo v Bilboa (+200/+240/+130) – Love the draw here, Bilboa are a different animal away from home and are off a solid result versus Madrid

 

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Quick thoughts on this weeks Bundesliga matches:

Gladbach v Leverkusen (+160/+230/+163) – Love Gladback here, who I have been fading with some success of late. There is value in the +160 due to recent performances

Frankfurt v Braunschweig (-161/+275/+450) – Pricey for Frankfurt, could look to AH on the road side

Nurnberg v Munich (+1000/+600/-500) – Why even bother?

Freiburg v Hoffenheim (+163/+250/+150) – Was giving Hoffenheim a look, but can’t trust this side away from home at this point, at least not at this price tag

Hamburg v Hertha (+163/+230/+160) – Hertha are in the midst of a tailspin, but this seems like a reasonable price here, however, I typically like to play on teams in slide at home, not sure here

Wolfsburg v Mainz (-133/+275/+350) – Price is a bit inflated on Wolfsburg, but I do like them in this spot off a few tough games, drawn at Gladbach, home loss to Hannover and road loss to Schalke – still won lay this number though

Bremen v Dortmund (+800/+400/-303) – Dortmund are a shell of themselves with the injuries, exits/pending exits and are still overpriced away from here even with how poorly Bremen have been

Schalke v Hannover (-189/+300/+500) – Schalke are probably a bit underpriced here, but it’s a pass for me

Stuttgart v Augsburg (+130/+240/+200) – Stuttgart is on the radar this week, but was hoping for a bit better than +130. Stuttgart are off a horrid run of luck, fortune losing some heart-breakers to Wolfsburg, Mainz, Munich and Leverkusen where they could have easily secured 4-7 points instead of 0

 

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Quick thoughts on this weeks Serie A matches:

Fiorentina v Atalanta (-227/+333/+600) – my number align here – pass

Napoli v Milan (+100/+240/+275) – I really like Napoli here coming home off a loss and facing a vastly overrated Milan side. That being said, I was still hoping for a better price

Udinese v Chievo (-120/+250/+333) – Too pricey for a side the class of Udinese, thought about a shot on Chievo, but don’t think I’m ready to go there

Inter v Sassuolo (-250/+350/+700) – Can’t see Inter this level of favorite versus anyone in the league, but still couldn’t back Sassuolo in any manner

Lazio v Roma (+250/+240/+105) – Quite a bit of interest in backing Lazio here, but not sure yet. Roma has burned a bunch of late and possibly has me on tilt

Livorno v Genoa (+140/+220/+400) – My numbers suggest over a 40% chance for the draw here

Parma v Catania (-175/+280/+500) – Parma a massively underpriced here and should be about 100 point higher or more. Still, I hate laying significant juice and am always working in all sports to limit this as much as possible, my average soccer play over the past year is +194

Sampdoria v Cagliari (+110/+225/+250) – was giving a strong look to Sampdoria pre-line, but need more than the current price to consider

Torino v Bologna (-149/+250/+425) – another home favorite that is underpriced substantially IMO

Verona v Juventus (+650/+320/-227) – Juventus are certainly inflated here, but I’m not sure what could be done with this one

 

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Quick thoughts on this weeks Ligue 1 matches:

Toulouse v St. Etienne (+170/+210/+170) – Giving Toulouse a strong look here and hoping this creeps up at a few shops and thinking +180 is an auto play

Ajaccio v Rennes (+240/+210/+125) – No value here IMO

Guingamp v Reims (+110/+210/+280) – looking to back the home side, but hoping for a bit better price, if available

Lille v Sochaux (-303/+375/+900) – Even at -303, Lille are undervalued here. Lille are battling for a CL spot and have really hit a rut coming off a loss at Nice, home draw to Rennes, loss at Etienne and home loss to Reims. Still, I wouldn’t back them at that price in their current form

Marseille v Bastia (-175/+260/+550) – Too rich for Marseille, may need to check AH

Montpellier v Evian (-149/+260/+450) – Montpellier are underpriced here and should be over -200

Valenciennes v Nice (+130/+200/+240) – Love Valenciennes here, probably should be around -115/-125. Nice horrid away from home and off a huge win against Lille

Bordeaux v Lorient (+105/+225/+275) – I like the home side here, but price just isn’t right

Monaco v PSG (+240/+220/+120) – I really like Monaco here; odds are too heavily slated towards PSG. I know the Falcao injury changed things up for Monaco, but Cavani is a huge loss for PSG as well.

Nantes v Lyon (+190/+210/+150) – Likely be backing the home side here at this price, as I tend to fade Lyon away from home if the price is right

 

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Gladbach v. Bayer Leverkusen

Odds: +160/+240/+160
Suggested probability: 38.5%/29.4%/38.5%
No vig probability: 36.2%/27.7%/36.2%
True odds: +176/+262/+176

Gladbach:
Home L5: 3-1-1 (8-6)
Avg Opp HL5: 8.4
Home offensive efficiency: 4[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]

Bayer Leverkusen:
Away L5: 2-0-3 (4-5)
Avg Opp AL5: 11.4
Away offensive efficiency: 13[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]

Projected score: Gladbach 1.696 v Leverkusen 1.035
Projected line: Gladbach +116

PLAY: Gladbach +160

Gladbach have been a solid offensive and defensive side at home this season while Leverkusen haven’t had been nearly as strong on both sides of the ball away from home.

Both sides have been on my radar to fade following the winter break, a thought I have followed with Gladbach, but it hadn’t materialized with Leverkusen, until tomorrow. My numbers suggest a 43% chance of victory for Gladbach compared to the line suggested probability of 36%, (roughly 50 points on the ML) which is typically a large enough difference for me to make a play.

I was asked why I tend to play the straight ML compared to the AH. For me, the protection of the PK isn’t worth the price long-term. If my numbers are sound, in this scenario, the ML pays about 10.760 units per 100 plays compared to 5.423 units per 100 plays for the PK. Obviously, that’s a big “if”, but one that I’m semi-comfortable with over the years.

This should be a well contested match with both defensive sides performing at high level. Gladbach’s more proficient offense will be the difference in conjunction with what I expect to be a disciplined, focused home side after a tough run of matches.

Projection: Gladbach 2, Leverkusen 1

 

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Note: I'm playing Gladbach at 0.50 to win 0.80

As mentioned earlier in the thread, Toulouse was on my radar for tomorrow as well, but I wanted a bit better price than the WA +170. The price has dropped to +160 in most spots, so I'm passing. There was a +180 available, but it was not a number I had access to.

GL to all.

 

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Championship:

0.5 Bolton +130
0.5 Charlton/Birmingham Draw +240
0.5 Huddersfield +190
0.5 Middlesbrough +125
0.5 Reading -125

Bundesliga:

0.5 Hertha Berlin +170

La Liga:

0.5 Malaga +190
0.5 Valencia -1.25 +115

Ligue 1:

0.5 Guingamp +115
0.5 Valenciennes +140

GL to all.

 

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EPL:

0.5 Everton +260

Bundelsiga:

0.5 Stuttgart +163

La Liga:

0.5 Vigo/Bilbao Draw +240 (Monday)

Serie A:

0.5 Livorno/Genoa Draw +220

Ligue 1:

0.5 Monaco +240
0.5 Nantes +190

GL to all.

 

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Apologies for the late post on Nantes, I did not realize they were an 8:00 AM start.

 

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Wash on Saturday and terrible day today...

Updated record: 74-130-2, +0.730 (since August)

One play pending for tomorrow.

 

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75-130-2, +1.930

EPL:

0.5 Aston Villa +200
0.5 Hull City +200

Championship:

0.5 Huddersfield +180
0.5 Sheffield Wednesday +180
0.5 Yeovil Town +163

GL to all.

 

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EPL:

1.0 Stoke +188
0.5 Newcastle/Spurs Draw +250

GL to all.

 

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76-136-2, -0.255

Bundesliga:

0.5 Mainz +110

La Liga:

0.5 Elche +120

GL to all.

 

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77-137-2, -0.205

Championship:

0.5 Birmingham +150
0.5 Doncaster +155
0.5 Burnley +160

Bundesliga:

0.5 Hamburg +160

Ligue 1:

0.5 Nice +120
0.5 Reims +180
0.5 Rennes +160

GL to all.

 

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77-142-2, -2.355

La Liga:

1.0 Granada +120

Serie A:

0.5 Atalanta +180
0.5 Catania +260
0.5 Genoa +188

GL to all.

 

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0.5 Malaga +180

GL to all.

 

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79-145-2, -1.355 (since August)

Champions League:

1.0 City +200

Championship:

1.0 Wednesday/Derby Draw +250

GL to all.

 

[ERockMoney]

79-147-2, -3.355

EPL:

1.0 Cardiff City +180

GL to all.

 

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Championship:

0.5 Blackpool/Birmingham Draw +230
0.5 Bolton/Watford Draw +240
0.5 Reading +125

GL to all.

 

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La Liga:

0.5 Almeria +170

Ligue 1:

0.5 Bastia +240
0.5 Valenciennes -110
0.5 Guingamp +115

GL to all.