Celta Vigo v. Real Betis
Odds: +110/+230/+260
Suggested probability: 47.6%/30.3%/27.8%
No vig probability: 45.1%/28.7%/26.3%
True odds: +122/+249/+281
Celta Vigo:
Home L5: 3-1-1 (7-5)
Avg Opp HL5: 12.4
Home offensive efficiency: 19[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 17[SUP]th[/SUP]
Real Betis:
Away L5: 0-1-4 (3-14)
Avg Opp AL5: 9.8
Away offensive efficiency: 17[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 20[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Vigo 1.680 v Betis 0.718
Projected line: Vigo -190
PLAY: Celta Vigo +110
Both sides have similar offensive and defensive attacking numbers (Vigo-home/Betis-away), so this should play out to the normal distribution. The largest factor should be both sides are incredibly inefficient in actual offensive production, but Vigo should see a bump in their norm due to how horrendous Betis are defensively away from home.
Betis nearly allow a goal per five shots attempted, which is by far the worst defensive figure of any team in any league I follow closely, EPL, ECH, Liga, Bund, Lig1, SerA. One could argue stronger offensive attacks in La Liga distorting Betis’s numbers, but you get the point.
Vigo have done an excellent job staying on the ball, which should work in their favor against a side like Betis who struggles to get possession and has struggled against sides who have the ability control the run of play. Unfortunately, for Vigo they have little success finishing, but that should be diminished against Betis.
Vigo has had the knack of playing down to opponents at home this season, which is a concern. Vigo have lost at home to Levante, Vallecano and Elche, but managed victories over Valencia and Bilboa. Vigo’s form has improved since the start of the season and I haven’t seen anything from Betis to suggest substantial improvement. I have gotten the impression Betis are becoming a bit stronger at home although the results haven’t come yet, but this could be something to keep an eye on. I know they were just steamrolled by Real Madrid, but it’s almost better to ignore the results for the bottom dwellers against the top teams due to the lopsided nature of the league.
Projection: Celta Vigo 2, Real Betis 1/0
Odds: +110/+230/+260
Suggested probability: 47.6%/30.3%/27.8%
No vig probability: 45.1%/28.7%/26.3%
True odds: +122/+249/+281
Celta Vigo:
Home L5: 3-1-1 (7-5)
Avg Opp HL5: 12.4
Home offensive efficiency: 19[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 17[SUP]th[/SUP]
Real Betis:
Away L5: 0-1-4 (3-14)
Avg Opp AL5: 9.8
Away offensive efficiency: 17[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 20[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Vigo 1.680 v Betis 0.718
Projected line: Vigo -190
PLAY: Celta Vigo +110
Both sides have similar offensive and defensive attacking numbers (Vigo-home/Betis-away), so this should play out to the normal distribution. The largest factor should be both sides are incredibly inefficient in actual offensive production, but Vigo should see a bump in their norm due to how horrendous Betis are defensively away from home.
Betis nearly allow a goal per five shots attempted, which is by far the worst defensive figure of any team in any league I follow closely, EPL, ECH, Liga, Bund, Lig1, SerA. One could argue stronger offensive attacks in La Liga distorting Betis’s numbers, but you get the point.
Vigo have done an excellent job staying on the ball, which should work in their favor against a side like Betis who struggles to get possession and has struggled against sides who have the ability control the run of play. Unfortunately, for Vigo they have little success finishing, but that should be diminished against Betis.
Vigo has had the knack of playing down to opponents at home this season, which is a concern. Vigo have lost at home to Levante, Vallecano and Elche, but managed victories over Valencia and Bilboa. Vigo’s form has improved since the start of the season and I haven’t seen anything from Betis to suggest substantial improvement. I have gotten the impression Betis are becoming a bit stronger at home although the results haven’t come yet, but this could be something to keep an eye on. I know they were just steamrolled by Real Madrid, but it’s almost better to ignore the results for the bottom dwellers against the top teams due to the lopsided nature of the league.
Projection: Celta Vigo 2, Real Betis 1/0
53-92-2, +1.305 (since August)
Championship:
0.5 Blackburn/Derby Draw +240
Bundesliga:
0.5 Hertha Berlin +210
0.5 Hoffenhiem +180
Ligue 1:
0.5 Ajaccio +130
0.5 Montpellier -110
0.5 Valenciennes +160
FA Cup:
0.5 Bolton +170
0.5 Rochdale +240
I'll try and get some thoughts down on these matches. More to come Sunday.
GL to all.
Championship:
0.5 Blackburn/Derby Draw +240
Bundesliga:
0.5 Hertha Berlin +210
0.5 Hoffenhiem +180
Ligue 1:
0.5 Ajaccio +130
0.5 Montpellier -110
0.5 Valenciennes +160
FA Cup:
0.5 Bolton +170
0.5 Rochdale +240
I'll try and get some thoughts down on these matches. More to come Sunday.
GL to all.
I was giving a strong look to the draw at +250. I have been terrible in the FA Cup the last few seasons, so I tend to tread lightly. In addition, I have struggled translating some of the numbers/stats I look at when their is a divisional jump, in this case their is three division difference (EPL to EL2).
Hull have been horrid on the road, but does that carry over against a strong League 2 side? Southend have been tough at home all season 7-3-3 (19-10), but Hull did take care of a strong home side in Middlesbrough the last round 2-0. Hull sits in 11th, yet is only five points from the relegation zone. I'll be curious how they approach tomorrow's match with a huge league match at Palace on Tuesday.
I'm passing. Best of luck with whatever you decide.
At this point, I have given back virtually all of my profit since May in the last eight weeks. Hopefully, I can squeeze a decent return out in the coming months.
Bundesliga:
0.5 Braunschweig +350
La Liga:
0.5 Osasuna +250
Serie A:
0.5 Cagliari/AC Milan Draw +240
0.5 Livorno +140
0.5 Verona/Roma Draw +260
0.5 Torino -125
Ligue 1:
0.5 Bordeaux +150
GL to all.
Bundesliga:
0.5 Braunschweig +350
La Liga:
0.5 Osasuna +250
Serie A:
0.5 Cagliari/AC Milan Draw +240
0.5 Livorno +140
0.5 Verona/Roma Draw +260
0.5 Torino -125
Ligue 1:
0.5 Bordeaux +150
GL to all.
I believe the three components viewed are shots allowed, goals allowed and possession allowed within your own half. The figures for City, include only away games within league play. The stat/measurement can be misleading from what I have found, but I still track it, as it can be a decent gauge in form and/or effectiveness, or lack thereof, at times.
I backed into the figures (fairly close) I have seen with this formula (shots allowed/goals allowed)/(possession allowed in your half/league average possession allowed within your own half). I believe this worked out to (127/17)/(.20/.31) = 0.1976 for City this season.
That is actually one of the worst figures of any side in any top European league. Typically, very sound defensive sides are less than 0.1000 within this particular category. This type of measurement favors the West Ham/Granada's of the world who are always under pressure, face a ton shots/chances, yet somehow manage to avoid allowing goals away from home (14 in league for both this season).
I think City has a low away defensive rating for a few reasons, their early season form, the limited pressure they have faced (19-20% within their own end away from home - top in the league), the few shots they have faced (2nd lowest to Chelsea in league away from home), yet they have allowed the seventh most away goals (18). I would bet if this was diced down to the last five/seven away matches they would be much higher on the list. City are typically always leading and forcing the opposition into an more open style of play, which is somewhat lost in this measurement. I have found it more valuable for mid-table teams who tend to lack the talent and depth of the top heavy sides across most top leagues.
appreciate the reply although i have quite a different view. fact is the teams that allow the most goals and chances get relegated. If you take the L5 EPL seasons and look at the 3 teams in each year that allowed the most shots (doesn't even need to be SOG) you'll find that 10 of them got relegated. From an efficiency stand point they actually might have been upper half but when teams like West Ham yesterday sneak out a point I put that into my mental bank to play against them next, not on them. Giving up 39 shots and no goals is great for your defensive efficiency but horrible for your defensive play.
Spurs, under ABV, were at the top of the league in shots and touches in opponent's final third but terrible in shots on goal and goals. That told me they were a very dangerous team because they would start to creep closer to the league avg in shots on goal vs shots attempted, instead of sitting at the bottom. Perhaps it only took the coaching change but they are still getting a lot of shots taken but now the goals are going in because they HAD to, statistically. So i'm sure their offensive efficiency isn't good bu their offense is very strong.
but i see where that's going on efficiency but i'd rather take a defense like City that is rarely under pressure but gives up big chances a few times/game than one like the Hammers that need a minor miracle to keep a clean sheet.
but i enjoy looking at all of those stats.
btw, the three allowing most shots this year are hammers, cardiff, and fulham right now followed by sunderland, norwich, and stoke.
Remainder of today's card:
EPL:
0.5 Hull City +300
Championship:
0.5 Doncaster +260
0.5 Ipswich +115
0.5 Leeds Utd +130
0.5 Millwall +188
La Liga:
0.5 Levante +120
0.5 Malaga +200
Serie A:
0.5 Bologna +200
0.5 Fiorentina +145
Ligue 1:
0.5 Bastia +120
0.5 Lorient/Monaco Draw +230
0.5 Reims +163
GL to all.
EPL:
0.5 Hull City +300
Championship:
0.5 Doncaster +260
0.5 Ipswich +115
0.5 Leeds Utd +130
0.5 Millwall +188
La Liga:
0.5 Levante +120
0.5 Malaga +200
Serie A:
0.5 Bologna +200
0.5 Fiorentina +145
Ligue 1:
0.5 Bastia +120
0.5 Lorient/Monaco Draw +230
0.5 Reims +163
GL to all.
I agree with you here. I certainly wouldn't suggest looking at something like this in a silo or as a reason to play against City or on the Hammers for that matter. I have found it can useful to decipher mid, bottom table teams. In the past few seasons the bottom that stayed up tended to have a bit better figures here versus the one's who went down. I have some use in this for totals projections, but I just don't have enough data to say it really relevant or if its just an anomaly.
Thank you for the reply and best of luck with your action.
Updated record:
70-118-2, +3.780
Eleven players 21 or under I have had my eye on….
G – Jan Oblak, Benfica – The Slovenia international has taken over the top spot at Portuguese power Benfica and has the look of one of the most promising keepers in the game
D – Lucas Dinge, PSG – The twenty year old French left-back holds a reserve spot for French giants PSG and could possibly move into a starting role as early as next season
D – Nathaniel Chalobah, Middlesbrough (loan from Chelsea) – The 19 year old Sierra Leone defender has been on loan to Watford, Forest and now Middlesbrough of the Championship as he ascends towards the active Chelsea roster.
D – Phil Jones, United – Jones has already had nearly 70 starts for United by the age of 21. The uncompromising defender has had to learn the ropes starting for one of the biggest clubs in the world
D/MF – Emre Can, Bayer Leverkusen (Munich maintains a buy-back clause) – The Turkish-German defender has begun to crack the starting lineup at Leverkusen with more regularity and German powerhouse Munich ensured they had a buy-back clause during the life of his contract with Leverkusen
MF – Koke, Atletico Madrid – The Spanish youngster has already established himself with over 80 starts at Atletico and should be set to break into the national team on a regular basis in the coming year or so
MF – Pierre Hojbjerg, Munich – The Danish phenom has already been signed at Munich, but hasn’t had much of an opportunity to crack the lineup. Some media outlets have reported Munich is not willing to loan the 18 year old because they feel he is that close to a regular starting role with the club
MF – Alen Halilovic, Zagreb – Croatia’s next star, the 17 year old looks to be one of the next midfield super stars in the world and has already gotten plenty of interest from top European powers. United and Madrid showed interest a few years ago and last season United and City were once again involved in preliminary discussions with London rival Arsenal seemingly the “front runner” of late.
F – Ahmed Musa, CSKA Moscow, the talented Nigerian can play up front or as an attacking midfielder and looks to be set to move to a major club next season. Musa has primarily played a secondary role for the national team, but the WC this summer could be the perfect setting for his breakout
S – Romelu Lukaka, Everton (loan from Chelsea) – the Belgian striker has done wonder on loan at West Brom last season and at Everton this season. He is expected to be sold off by Chelsea in the off-season, likely as a throw in during an acquisition of a prime target for the club. Although he doesn’t seem to fit into the future plans of Chelsea, I would suspect most teams would love to acquire his services on a permanent basis
S – Alvaro Morata, Real Madrid – The young Spanish star was a dominant force for the Under 21 and Under 19 Spanish side, scoring 23 goals in 24 matches, and currently is a reserve for Spanish powers Real Madrid. Arsenal, Inter and Juventus have been trying to secure Morata’s services, but nothing has formalized to date. Morata has had difficulty getting minutes, especially with fellow youngster Jese’s emergence, but I have personally always favored Morata in that argument
70-118-2, +3.780
Eleven players 21 or under I have had my eye on….
G – Jan Oblak, Benfica – The Slovenia international has taken over the top spot at Portuguese power Benfica and has the look of one of the most promising keepers in the game
D – Lucas Dinge, PSG – The twenty year old French left-back holds a reserve spot for French giants PSG and could possibly move into a starting role as early as next season
D – Nathaniel Chalobah, Middlesbrough (loan from Chelsea) – The 19 year old Sierra Leone defender has been on loan to Watford, Forest and now Middlesbrough of the Championship as he ascends towards the active Chelsea roster.
D – Phil Jones, United – Jones has already had nearly 70 starts for United by the age of 21. The uncompromising defender has had to learn the ropes starting for one of the biggest clubs in the world
D/MF – Emre Can, Bayer Leverkusen (Munich maintains a buy-back clause) – The Turkish-German defender has begun to crack the starting lineup at Leverkusen with more regularity and German powerhouse Munich ensured they had a buy-back clause during the life of his contract with Leverkusen
MF – Koke, Atletico Madrid – The Spanish youngster has already established himself with over 80 starts at Atletico and should be set to break into the national team on a regular basis in the coming year or so
MF – Pierre Hojbjerg, Munich – The Danish phenom has already been signed at Munich, but hasn’t had much of an opportunity to crack the lineup. Some media outlets have reported Munich is not willing to loan the 18 year old because they feel he is that close to a regular starting role with the club
MF – Alen Halilovic, Zagreb – Croatia’s next star, the 17 year old looks to be one of the next midfield super stars in the world and has already gotten plenty of interest from top European powers. United and Madrid showed interest a few years ago and last season United and City were once again involved in preliminary discussions with London rival Arsenal seemingly the “front runner” of late.
F – Ahmed Musa, CSKA Moscow, the talented Nigerian can play up front or as an attacking midfielder and looks to be set to move to a major club next season. Musa has primarily played a secondary role for the national team, but the WC this summer could be the perfect setting for his breakout
S – Romelu Lukaka, Everton (loan from Chelsea) – the Belgian striker has done wonder on loan at West Brom last season and at Everton this season. He is expected to be sold off by Chelsea in the off-season, likely as a throw in during an acquisition of a prime target for the club. Although he doesn’t seem to fit into the future plans of Chelsea, I would suspect most teams would love to acquire his services on a permanent basis
S – Alvaro Morata, Real Madrid – The young Spanish star was a dominant force for the Under 21 and Under 19 Spanish side, scoring 23 goals in 24 matches, and currently is a reserve for Spanish powers Real Madrid. Arsenal, Inter and Juventus have been trying to secure Morata’s services, but nothing has formalized to date. Morata has had difficulty getting minutes, especially with fellow youngster Jese’s emergence, but I have personally always favored Morata in that argument
Quick thoughts on this weeks EPL matches:
Villa v West Ham (+110/+240/+240) – The Hammers seem to have some value here at +240, especially with Villa’s struggles at home. I have West Ham at around +190.
Chelsea v Newcastle (-400/+475/+1000) – Seems to be a very inflated number for Chelsea here, especially after a huge win at City. Can’t really see Newcastle winning here, but way too much love for Chelsea IMO, need to check into AH.
Palace v WBA (+150/+225/+180) – I was giving a look at Palace before I saw the lines and was hoping for a better number. This matchup is just outside my criteria for a draw play. Likely a pass all around at these numbers, give me +170 on Palace and I’d probably pull the trigger.
Liverpool v Arsenal (+110/+260/+225) – These odds align almost identically with mine – no play.
Norwich v City (+850/+425/-333) – Inflated in favor of City IMO, I still don’t really trust this side away from the Etihad. I couldn’t bring myself to side with the Canaries. Could Chelsea beat City twice with a bit of a hangover here? See AH.
Soton v Stoke (-200/+300/+600) – This is rare instance where I think a larger favorite is undervalued. Still not sure I could bring myself to lay -200, but there is value in that price IMO. Soton should be closer to -300 in this spot, possibly some unjustified love for Stoke beating United?
Sunderland v Hull (+105/+220/+280) - My type of game, but not at this price. I have been riding Sunderland a bit, but price value seems to be gone now. At +140 I would be enticed.
Swansea v Cardiff (-133/+260/+375) – Battle of Wales between two bitter rivals. I couldn’t back Swansea at this price in this type of rivalry – pass.
United v Fulham (-500/+525/+1600) – Inflated line, even for a match featuring Fulham away from home. United shouldn’t have this type of line versus any side in the league. Still can’t see siding with Fulham in any manner.
Spurs v Everton (+110/+240/+240) – Great price on Everton here coming off a terrible loss to Liverpool, loss of Lukaka and ugly home victory versus Villa, this line is inflated versus an overvalued Spurs side. I suspect I will certainly back Everton here, just need to think about it a bit more, as they are notorious for leading these types of away matches only to end in a draw.
Villa v West Ham (+110/+240/+240) – The Hammers seem to have some value here at +240, especially with Villa’s struggles at home. I have West Ham at around +190.
Chelsea v Newcastle (-400/+475/+1000) – Seems to be a very inflated number for Chelsea here, especially after a huge win at City. Can’t really see Newcastle winning here, but way too much love for Chelsea IMO, need to check into AH.
Palace v WBA (+150/+225/+180) – I was giving a look at Palace before I saw the lines and was hoping for a better number. This matchup is just outside my criteria for a draw play. Likely a pass all around at these numbers, give me +170 on Palace and I’d probably pull the trigger.
Liverpool v Arsenal (+110/+260/+225) – These odds align almost identically with mine – no play.
Norwich v City (+850/+425/-333) – Inflated in favor of City IMO, I still don’t really trust this side away from the Etihad. I couldn’t bring myself to side with the Canaries. Could Chelsea beat City twice with a bit of a hangover here? See AH.
Soton v Stoke (-200/+300/+600) – This is rare instance where I think a larger favorite is undervalued. Still not sure I could bring myself to lay -200, but there is value in that price IMO. Soton should be closer to -300 in this spot, possibly some unjustified love for Stoke beating United?
Sunderland v Hull (+105/+220/+280) - My type of game, but not at this price. I have been riding Sunderland a bit, but price value seems to be gone now. At +140 I would be enticed.
Swansea v Cardiff (-133/+260/+375) – Battle of Wales between two bitter rivals. I couldn’t back Swansea at this price in this type of rivalry – pass.
United v Fulham (-500/+525/+1600) – Inflated line, even for a match featuring Fulham away from home. United shouldn’t have this type of line versus any side in the league. Still can’t see siding with Fulham in any manner.
Spurs v Everton (+110/+240/+240) – Great price on Everton here coming off a terrible loss to Liverpool, loss of Lukaka and ugly home victory versus Villa, this line is inflated versus an overvalued Spurs side. I suspect I will certainly back Everton here, just need to think about it a bit more, as they are notorious for leading these types of away matches only to end in a draw.
Quick thoughts on this weeks Championship matches:
Barnsley v Ipswich: (+200/+220/+140) – Pretty close to backing Ipswich at this price, but something is telling me to avoid backing against a desperate Barnsley side at home
Blackpool v Forest (+275/+240/+100) – Blackpool have been terrible of late, but I could see them pulling this out at an inflated price at home. I will need to think this one over some more
Bolton v Bournemouth (+120/+230/+230) – I really wanted to back Bolton in this spot pre-line, but was expecting a better price tag in the +140/+150 range – likely pass
Brighton v Doncaster (-189/+250/+550) – I have benefited nicely from Doncaster’s run of late, but this line is short on Brighton. This is virtually must win for Brighton is they want to keep serious playoff hopes alive – they should be in the -230/-260 range IMO. Still not sure I would play it though
Burnley v Millwall (-161/+275/+450) – another underpriced favorite here, to an even larger degree than Brighton. Burnley should be in the -280/-300 range.
Charlton v Birmingham (+130/+220/+220) – love the draw here as my numbers suggest a over a 40% probability on draw versus line expectation of 29.5%
Huddersfield v Wigan (+200/+220/+140) – Really like Hudders in this spot, off some terrible performances and facing a terrible road side in Wigan. Plenty of value in the +200 IMO and actual odds should be in the +140 range for the home side
Leicester v Watford (-137/+260/+375) – I keep waiting for the moment to cash in fading Leicester, but I don’t think this is it. Line is inflated, as expected for a side on such a tear, but Watford are a mess defensively and have not impressed me one bit
Middlesbrough v Blackburn (+120/+230/+225) – I really like Middlesbrough in this spot facing a poor road side in Blackburn and off some lackluster performances
Reading v Wednesday (-120/+250/+333) – Reading have been dominant at home and should be at least -200 here, will likely back the home side as they surge towards the playoffs
Yeovil v Leeds (+220/+230/+125) – odds align pretty closely with mine – I thought Yeovil may be the play pre-line after Leeds five goal explosion, but not at this price
Derby v QPR (+138/+250/+180) – Another match that aligns with my analysis - pass
Barnsley v Ipswich: (+200/+220/+140) – Pretty close to backing Ipswich at this price, but something is telling me to avoid backing against a desperate Barnsley side at home
Blackpool v Forest (+275/+240/+100) – Blackpool have been terrible of late, but I could see them pulling this out at an inflated price at home. I will need to think this one over some more
Bolton v Bournemouth (+120/+230/+230) – I really wanted to back Bolton in this spot pre-line, but was expecting a better price tag in the +140/+150 range – likely pass
Brighton v Doncaster (-189/+250/+550) – I have benefited nicely from Doncaster’s run of late, but this line is short on Brighton. This is virtually must win for Brighton is they want to keep serious playoff hopes alive – they should be in the -230/-260 range IMO. Still not sure I would play it though
Burnley v Millwall (-161/+275/+450) – another underpriced favorite here, to an even larger degree than Brighton. Burnley should be in the -280/-300 range.
Charlton v Birmingham (+130/+220/+220) – love the draw here as my numbers suggest a over a 40% probability on draw versus line expectation of 29.5%
Huddersfield v Wigan (+200/+220/+140) – Really like Hudders in this spot, off some terrible performances and facing a terrible road side in Wigan. Plenty of value in the +200 IMO and actual odds should be in the +140 range for the home side
Leicester v Watford (-137/+260/+375) – I keep waiting for the moment to cash in fading Leicester, but I don’t think this is it. Line is inflated, as expected for a side on such a tear, but Watford are a mess defensively and have not impressed me one bit
Middlesbrough v Blackburn (+120/+230/+225) – I really like Middlesbrough in this spot facing a poor road side in Blackburn and off some lackluster performances
Reading v Wednesday (-120/+250/+333) – Reading have been dominant at home and should be at least -200 here, will likely back the home side as they surge towards the playoffs
Yeovil v Leeds (+220/+230/+125) – odds align pretty closely with mine – I thought Yeovil may be the play pre-line after Leeds five goal explosion, but not at this price
Derby v QPR (+138/+250/+180) – Another match that aligns with my analysis - pass
