Had a rough go the last few months...let's get back on track
49-82-2, +2.255 (since August)
EPL:
0.5 WHam/Newcastle Draw +240
Championship:
0.5 Burnley -120
0.5 Derby/Brighton Draw +240
0.5 Doncaster +350
La Liga:
0.5 Espanyol/Vigo Over 2.5 +115
Ligue 1:
0.5 Bastia +190
0.5 Sochaux +190
More to come tomorrow.
GL to all.
49-82-2, +2.255 (since August)
EPL:
0.5 WHam/Newcastle Draw +240
Championship:
0.5 Burnley -120
0.5 Derby/Brighton Draw +240
0.5 Doncaster +350
La Liga:
0.5 Espanyol/Vigo Over 2.5 +115
Ligue 1:
0.5 Bastia +190
0.5 Sochaux +190
More to come tomorrow.
GL to all.
EPL:
0.5 West Ham/Newcastle Draw (+240)
My numbers show a less than 0.100 expected goal (1.491-1.534) difference here, which is an auto draw play for me.
Championship:
0.5 Burnley (-120)
Line seems rather short based on my figures, as I expected to see Burnley closer to -200. Burnley is 7-3-0 in their last ten home league matches (18-6) compared to Sheffield’s 1-6-3 (7-14) run away in league play.
Sheffield is also off a mid-week FA Cup matchup and are playing there third match in seven days.
0.5 Derby/Brighton Draw (+240)
As mentioned above, expected goals (1.159-1.064)
0.5 Doncaster (+350)
The Rovers are fighting for survival in the league and are on a 3-2-5 (8-17) run at home. Oddly enough, they have home victories over Leicester and QPR and a draw with Nottingham over that stretch.
I’m not high on Wigan and haven’t been impressed by this side all season. This will be their 13[SUP]th[/SUP] match in seven weeks and they are on an away run of 3-1-6 (5-10) in league play.
Wigan is the least efficient offensive team in the league away from home and only scores a league worst 0.052 goals per shot. They are the fifth best defensive side away from home allowing 0.072 goals per shot, only trailing Burnley, QPR, Brighton and Reading.
I’ll take a shot on the +350, as my numbers suggest +250-275 is a more accurate price.
I also played Leeds at +275, but forgot it was the early game and didn't have an opportunity to post.
0.5 West Ham/Newcastle Draw (+240)
My numbers show a less than 0.100 expected goal (1.491-1.534) difference here, which is an auto draw play for me.
Championship:
0.5 Burnley (-120)
Line seems rather short based on my figures, as I expected to see Burnley closer to -200. Burnley is 7-3-0 in their last ten home league matches (18-6) compared to Sheffield’s 1-6-3 (7-14) run away in league play.
Sheffield is also off a mid-week FA Cup matchup and are playing there third match in seven days.
0.5 Derby/Brighton Draw (+240)
As mentioned above, expected goals (1.159-1.064)
0.5 Doncaster (+350)
The Rovers are fighting for survival in the league and are on a 3-2-5 (8-17) run at home. Oddly enough, they have home victories over Leicester and QPR and a draw with Nottingham over that stretch.
I’m not high on Wigan and haven’t been impressed by this side all season. This will be their 13[SUP]th[/SUP] match in seven weeks and they are on an away run of 3-1-6 (5-10) in league play.
Wigan is the least efficient offensive team in the league away from home and only scores a league worst 0.052 goals per shot. They are the fifth best defensive side away from home allowing 0.072 goals per shot, only trailing Burnley, QPR, Brighton and Reading.
I’ll take a shot on the +350, as my numbers suggest +250-275 is a more accurate price.
I also played Leeds at +275, but forgot it was the early game and didn't have an opportunity to post.
I had some extra time on my hands, which is rare, so I thought I'd post some of the process I go through prior to making any selections.
EPL 1/28 and 1/29:
Crystal Palace v. Hull City
Odds: +140/+220/+200
Suggested probability: 41.7%/31.3%/33.3%
No vig probability: 39.2%/29.4%/31.4%
True odds: +155/+240/+219
Crystal Palace:
Home L5: 3-1-1 (5-4)
Avg Opp HL5: 14.4 (table position)
Home offensive efficiency: 18[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 13[SUP]th[/SUP]
Hull City:
Away L5: 0-2-3 (2-7)
Avg Opp AL5: 9.0
Away offensive efficiency: 15[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 14[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Palace 1.585 v Hull 1.167
Projected line: Palace +144
EPL 1/28 and 1/29:
Crystal Palace v. Hull City
Odds: +140/+220/+200
Suggested probability: 41.7%/31.3%/33.3%
No vig probability: 39.2%/29.4%/31.4%
True odds: +155/+240/+219
Crystal Palace:
Home L5: 3-1-1 (5-4)
Avg Opp HL5: 14.4 (table position)
Home offensive efficiency: 18[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 13[SUP]th[/SUP]
Hull City:
Away L5: 0-2-3 (2-7)
Avg Opp AL5: 9.0
Away offensive efficiency: 15[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 14[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Palace 1.585 v Hull 1.167
Projected line: Palace +144
Liverpool v. Everton
Odds: -125/+275/+320
Suggested probability: 55.6%/26.7%/22.2%
No vig probability: 53.2%/25.5%/21.3%
True odds: -114/+292/+370
Liverpool:
Home L5: 4-1-0 (16-5)
Avg Opp HL5: 14.2
Home offensive efficiency: 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 4[SUP]th[/SUP]
Everton:
Away L5: 2-3-0 (6-4)
Avg Opp AL5: 10.0
Away offensive efficiency: 10[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 4[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Liverpool 1.501 v Everton 0.849
Projected line: Liverpool +103
Odds: -125/+275/+320
Suggested probability: 55.6%/26.7%/22.2%
No vig probability: 53.2%/25.5%/21.3%
True odds: -114/+292/+370
Liverpool:
Home L5: 4-1-0 (16-5)
Avg Opp HL5: 14.2
Home offensive efficiency: 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 4[SUP]th[/SUP]
Everton:
Away L5: 2-3-0 (6-4)
Avg Opp AL5: 10.0
Away offensive efficiency: 10[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 4[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Liverpool 1.501 v Everton 0.849
Projected line: Liverpool +103
Manchester United v. Cardiff City
Odds: -400/+450/+1100
Suggested probability: 80.0%/18.2%/8.3%
No vig probability: 75.1%/17.1%/7.8%
True odds: -302/+486/+1178
Manchester United:
Home L5: 2-0-3 (6-5)
Avg Opp HL5: 10.4
Home offensive efficiency: 13[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 9[SUP]th[/SUP]
Cardiff City:
Away L5: 0-1-4 (3-11)
Avg Opp AL5: 7.6
Away offensive efficiency: 18[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 6[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: United 1.609 v Cardiff 0.794
Projected line: United -233
Odds: -400/+450/+1100
Suggested probability: 80.0%/18.2%/8.3%
No vig probability: 75.1%/17.1%/7.8%
True odds: -302/+486/+1178
Manchester United:
Home L5: 2-0-3 (6-5)
Avg Opp HL5: 10.4
Home offensive efficiency: 13[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 9[SUP]th[/SUP]
Cardiff City:
Away L5: 0-1-4 (3-11)
Avg Opp AL5: 7.6
Away offensive efficiency: 18[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 6[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: United 1.609 v Cardiff 0.794
Projected line: United -233
Norwich City v. Newcastle
Odds: +188/+240/+138
Suggested probability: 34.7%/29.4%/42.0%
No vig probability: 32.7%/27.7%/39.6%
True odds: +206/+261/+153
Norwich City:
Home L5: 2-1-2 (4-4)
Avg Opp HL5: 13.2
Home offensive efficiency: 19[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 5[SUP]th[/SUP]
Newcastle:
Away L5: 3-0-2 (7-5)
Avg Opp AL5: 13.8
Away offensive efficiency: 7[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 12[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Norwich 1.294 v Newcastle 1.223
Projected line: Norwich +170
Odds: +188/+240/+138
Suggested probability: 34.7%/29.4%/42.0%
No vig probability: 32.7%/27.7%/39.6%
True odds: +206/+261/+153
Norwich City:
Home L5: 2-1-2 (4-4)
Avg Opp HL5: 13.2
Home offensive efficiency: 19[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 5[SUP]th[/SUP]
Newcastle:
Away L5: 3-0-2 (7-5)
Avg Opp AL5: 13.8
Away offensive efficiency: 7[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 12[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Norwich 1.294 v Newcastle 1.223
Projected line: Norwich +170
Southampton v. Arsenal
Odds: +260/+250/+100
Suggested probability: 27.8%/28.6%/50.0%
No vig probability: 26.1%/26.9%/47.0%
True odds: +283/+272/+113
Soton:
Home L5: 1-1-3 (6-10)
Avg Opp HL5: 6.6
Home offensive efficiency: 8[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 18[SUP]th[/SUP]
Arsenal:
Away L5: 4-0-1 (12-8)
Avg Opp AL5: 11.6
Away offensive efficiency: 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 10[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Arsenal 1.320 v Soton 1.169
Projected line: Arsenal +140
Odds: +260/+250/+100
Suggested probability: 27.8%/28.6%/50.0%
No vig probability: 26.1%/26.9%/47.0%
True odds: +283/+272/+113
Soton:
Home L5: 1-1-3 (6-10)
Avg Opp HL5: 6.6
Home offensive efficiency: 8[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 18[SUP]th[/SUP]
Arsenal:
Away L5: 4-0-1 (12-8)
Avg Opp AL5: 11.6
Away offensive efficiency: 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 10[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Arsenal 1.320 v Soton 1.169
Projected line: Arsenal +140
Swansea City v. Fulham
Odds: -149/+275/+400
Suggested probability: 59.8%/26.7%/20.0%
No vig probability: 56.2%/25.0%/18.8%
True odds: -128/+299/+433
Swansea City:
Home L5: 1-1-3 (8-9)
Avg Opp HL5: 6.4
Home offensive efficiency: 4[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 20[SUP]th[/SUP]
Fulham:
Away L5: 1-0-4 (3-16)
Avg Opp AL5: 9.8
Away offensive efficiency: 8[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 13[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Swansea 2.015 v Fulham 1.163
Projected line: Swansea +100
Odds: -149/+275/+400
Suggested probability: 59.8%/26.7%/20.0%
No vig probability: 56.2%/25.0%/18.8%
True odds: -128/+299/+433
Swansea City:
Home L5: 1-1-3 (8-9)
Avg Opp HL5: 6.4
Home offensive efficiency: 4[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 20[SUP]th[/SUP]
Fulham:
Away L5: 1-0-4 (3-16)
Avg Opp AL5: 9.8
Away offensive efficiency: 8[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 13[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Swansea 2.015 v Fulham 1.163
Projected line: Swansea +100
Aston Villa v. West Bromwich Albion
Odds: +150/+230/+175
Suggested probability: 40.0%/30.3%/26.7%
No vig probability: 41.3%/31.3%/27.5%
True odds: +142/+220/+264
Aston Villa:
Home L5: 0-2-3 (2-7)
Avg Opp HL5: 11.6
Home offensive efficiency: 20[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 16[SUP]th[/SUP]
WBA:
Away L5: 0-2-3 (5-8)
Avg Opp AL5: 12.0
Away offensive efficiency: 12[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 7[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: WBA 1.398 v Villa 1.217
Projected line: WBA +165
Odds: +150/+230/+175
Suggested probability: 40.0%/30.3%/26.7%
No vig probability: 41.3%/31.3%/27.5%
True odds: +142/+220/+264
Aston Villa:
Home L5: 0-2-3 (2-7)
Avg Opp HL5: 11.6
Home offensive efficiency: 20[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 16[SUP]th[/SUP]
WBA:
Away L5: 0-2-3 (5-8)
Avg Opp AL5: 12.0
Away offensive efficiency: 12[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 7[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: WBA 1.398 v Villa 1.217
Projected line: WBA +165
Chelsea v. West Ham United
Odds: -500/+550/+1200
Suggested probability: 83.3%/15.4%/7.7%
No vig probability: 78.3%/14.5%/7.2%
True odds: -361/+592/+1283
Chelsea:
Home L5: 5-0-0 (11-4)
Avg Opp HL5: 10.2
Home offensive efficiency: 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 8[SUP]th[/SUP]
West Ham:
Away L5: 1-0-4 (5-10)
Avg Opp AL5: 12.8
Away offensive efficiency: 13[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
Projected score: Chelsea 1.780 v West Ham 0.820
Projected line: Chelsea -250
Odds: -500/+550/+1200
Suggested probability: 83.3%/15.4%/7.7%
No vig probability: 78.3%/14.5%/7.2%
True odds: -361/+592/+1283
Chelsea:
Home L5: 5-0-0 (11-4)
Avg Opp HL5: 10.2
Home offensive efficiency: 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 8[SUP]th[/SUP]
West Ham:
Away L5: 1-0-4 (5-10)
Avg Opp AL5: 12.8
Away offensive efficiency: 13[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
Projected score: Chelsea 1.780 v West Ham 0.820
Projected line: Chelsea -250
Sunderland v. Stoke City
Odds: +110/+225/+260
Suggested probability: 47.6%/30.8%/27.8%
No vig probability: 44.9%/29.0%/26.2%
True odds: +123/+245/+282
Sunderland:
Home L5: 0-2-3 (6-9)
Avg Opp HL5: 7.8
Home offensive efficiency: 16[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 12[SUP]th[/SUP]
Stoke City:
Away L5: 0-1-4 (1-13)
Avg Opp AL5: 9.2
Away offensive efficiency: 16[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 19[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Sunderland 1.728 v Stoke 1.276
Projected line: Sunderland +140
Odds: +110/+225/+260
Suggested probability: 47.6%/30.8%/27.8%
No vig probability: 44.9%/29.0%/26.2%
True odds: +123/+245/+282
Sunderland:
Home L5: 0-2-3 (6-9)
Avg Opp HL5: 7.8
Home offensive efficiency: 16[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 12[SUP]th[/SUP]
Stoke City:
Away L5: 0-1-4 (1-13)
Avg Opp AL5: 9.2
Away offensive efficiency: 16[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 19[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: Sunderland 1.728 v Stoke 1.276
Projected line: Sunderland +140
Tottenham v. Manchester City
Odds: +220/+260/+110
Suggested probability: 31.1%/27.8%/47.6%
No vig probability: 29.3%/26.0%/44.7%
True odds: +241/+284/+124
Tottenham:
Home L5: 2-2-1 (8-8)
Avg Opp HL5: 10.8
Home offensive efficiency: 17[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 17[SUP]th[/SUP]
Manchester City:
Away L5: 4-1-0 (13-7)
Avg Opp AL5: 12.4
Away offensive efficiency: 4[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 20[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: City 1.334 v Spurs 1.257
Projected line: City +160
Odds: +220/+260/+110
Suggested probability: 31.1%/27.8%/47.6%
No vig probability: 29.3%/26.0%/44.7%
True odds: +241/+284/+124
Tottenham:
Home L5: 2-2-1 (8-8)
Avg Opp HL5: 10.8
Home offensive efficiency: 17[SUP]th[/SUP]
Home defensive efficiency: 17[SUP]th[/SUP]
Manchester City:
Away L5: 4-1-0 (13-7)
Avg Opp AL5: 12.4
Away offensive efficiency: 4[SUP]th[/SUP]
Away defensive efficiency: 20[SUP]th[/SUP]
Projected score: City 1.334 v Spurs 1.257
Projected line: City +160
