Eagles just made a very big mistake...

[PatsFan1283]

They did give a massive deal to Wentz after 2017, so I don’t need to imagine it. It happened, he sucked, they pivoted. Wasn’t a big deal.

And Hurts cap hit is nothing next few years, which is when you want it to be nothing when you have a team contending.

Again, if jettisoning young QB X is such a smart strategy, I’d like to see 1 team try it. You underrate the current scarcity of position

You’re gonna need an all star team to win with Minshew at QB. Which again is why no one tries to.

Eagles are free to try it, my guess is that stacked teak won’t seem so stacked with bottom 10 QB play.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Who said the Eagles would suck if they dealt Hurts? That Eagles team is solid all around, although they do play in the NFC.

Now imagine if they had given that same deal to Wentz. Where would they be now? Stuck in cap hell with no way out.

I think it was knitro who said the Chiefs are the only team who have won a SB with one of these monster QB contracts. Mahomes first SB was before he signed his current deal.

Define monster contract .
This is a statement I read all the time and it’s not really true .
Stafford had a monster contract .
And I can name many others

 

[SheriffJoe]

They did give a massive deal to Wentz after 2017, so I don’t need to imagine it. It happened, he sucked, they pivoted. Wasn’t a big deal.

And Hurts cap hit is nothing next few years, which is when you want it to be nothing when you have a team contending.

Again, if jettisoning young QB X is such a smart strategy, I’d like to see 1 team try it. You underrate the current scarcity of position

You’re gonna need an all star team to win with Minshew at QB. Which again is why no one tries to.

Eagles are free to try it, my guess is that stacked teak won’t seem so stacked with bottom 10 QB play.

Niners and Titans in recent years were solid contenders with their "system QB", although an elite starter like Mahomes would have put them over the top, which reinforces my point. Good coaching/team building makes you competitive; elite QB puts you over the top.

In terms of monster contracts, Mahomes set the standard at 500m, so say 50m as the new inflated benchmark, give or take a few million either way.

Also, the guaranteed portion is creeping up moreso than the Wentz/Stafford structure, which means these new contracts will be harder to get rid of if and when things go south.

Stafford is nowhere near 50m.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Tannehill and JimmyG both were paid pretty well.

How many playoff games have Titans won last 5 years? Like 2? Ooh wow, sign me up! And they had that luxury of being in a joke division. If that’s a top 2 example, my point exactly.

9ers have been an outlier, and even they had horrible splits when Garapollo was hurt prior to last year.

I guess we’ll see next 5 years how ahead of the rest of the nfl the Titans are

 

[PatsFan1283]

Niners and Titans in recent years were solid contenders with their "system QB", although an elite starter like Mahomes would have put them over the top, which reinforces my point. Good coaching/team building makes you competitive; elite QB puts you over the top.

In terms of monster contracts, Mahomes set the standard at 500m, so say 50m as the new inflated benchmark, give or take a few million either way.

Also, the guaranteed portion is creeping up moreso than the Wentz/Stafford structure, which means these new contracts will be harder to get rid of if and when things go south.

Stafford is nowhere near 50m.

So in 4 years Hurts is injured/sucks and you’re taking a massive cap hit, and?

You think they’re gonna need to call a bankruptcy attorney?

They will just have to start over after a down year or 2. Be in same spot 20 other teams are

 

[SheriffJoe]

Tannehill and JimmyG both were paid pretty well.

How many playoff games have Titans won last 5 years? Like 2? Ooh wow, sign me up! And they had that luxury of being in a joke division. If that’s a top 2 example, my point exactly.

9ers have been an outlier, and even they had horrible splits when Garapollo was hurt prior to last year.

I guess we’ll see next 5 years how ahead of the rest of the nfl the Titans are

This new Mahomes benchmark is double the Tannehill/Jimmy G standard.

Mahomes and/or Brady have appeared in 7/9 of the last Superbowls, which makes that elite group even more scarce than you think. The problem is too many teams believe their guy belongs to that select group, when they don't.

So these discussions repeat themselves over the years...Wentz, Murray, Mayfield, Dak, Watson, Lamar, JimmyG, Stafford...

Their shelf lives are limited because DCs figure them out.

 

[Greenbacks]

He's coming off a great season,super bowl and all.
He deserves a nice play day.
You produce,you get paid.
That's how it works.

 

[Avocado33]

The talent gap between the 8th best QB and the 18th best QB is much wider then the money gap between the 2

Bingo

Over half of starters are going to make a shit ton

 

[Avocado33]

This new Mahomes benchmark is double the Tannehill/Jimmy G standard.

Mahomes and/or Brady have appeared in 7/9 of the last Superbowls, which makes that elite group even more scarce than you think. The problem is too many teams believe their guy belongs to that select group, when they don't.

So these discussions repeat themselves over the years...Wentz, Murray, Mayfield, Dak, Watson, Lamar, JimmyG, Stafford...

Their shelf lives are limited because DCs figure them out.

So any team without Mahomes should just say “fuck it” and go for a cheap option/rookie at QB?

 

[SheriffJoe]

So any team without Mahomes should just say “fuck it” and go for a cheap option/rookie at QB?

No.

Mahomes is considered the best QB in the league by a mile, while Allen's contract came in proportionately just under that.

Now you have these middle tier dime-a-dozen guys demanding the same $$$. Like Hurts 50m, Jones 45m, Lamar demanding 70m...

Absolutely ridiculous.

 

[PatsFan1283]

This new Mahomes benchmark is double the Tannehill/Jimmy G standard.

Mahomes and/or Brady have appeared in 7/9 of the last Superbowls, which makes that elite group even more scarce than you think. The problem is too many teams believe their guy belongs to that select group, when they don't.

So these discussions repeat themselves over the years...Wentz, Murray, Mayfield, Dak, Watson, Lamar, JimmyG, Stafford...

Their shelf lives are limited because DCs figure them out.

Shrug, I guess most teams are unlikely to win a superbowl in a 32 team league where 3-4 teams with the best QBs take up a good portion of the equity.

No clue what this has to do with anything I said.

Like you said, this horrible resource allocation is going to create massive inefficiencies in team building and smart teams will exploit it.

I haven’t seen teams able to exploit it by fading paying QBs and building elsewhere. Probably because edges at non-QB positions as well as access to players just isn’t there.

 

[PatsFan1283]

If teams were able to do this, then it would pivot and Daniel Jones leverage would go down. Maybe that day comes eventually but clearly going Jameis at QB for 12m ain’t getting anyone anywhere. These teams that pay the bargain basement QBs suck every year.

Dak, Stafford or Cousins track record way better than them

 

[SheriffJoe]

Shrug, I guess most teams are unlikely to win a superbowl in a 32 team league where 3-4 teams with the best QBs take up a good portion of the equity.

No clue what this has to do with anything I said.

The biggest problem with any young QB who has had some success in this league is they don't maintain that same level of play. They burst onto to the scene, have 1-2 great years and then flame out...because the DCs figure them out. That's the norm, not the exception. Remember when Derek Carr was the next greatest thing? What happened?

That's why these contracts are bad risks, no matter how you measure them.

Hurts/Jones aren't better than Mahomes/Allen, yet some think they should be paid accordingly after one career year. Crazy!

The title of this thread says it all.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Bad risks as opposed to what, constantly trying to recycle QBs?

Drafting a QB, developing him then trading him before payday. What if the next guy you draft sucks? You just torched off a decade now. The years pile up very quickly and you’re operating a business, you can’t just blow forever trying to hit a home run.

It’s very, very, very easy to get into QB purgatory in the nfl. And once you’re in it, can be hard to get out. Not like it’s a simulation and you got 20 years to find a guy. You can’t just suck forever hoping to find Mahomes, sometimes you gotta bite the bullet and pay Kirk Cousins and hope to run good.

 

[SheriffJoe]

Signing one recycled QB after another to big money is the easiest way to end up and stay in QB purgatory.

Drafting and developing the prized "franchise QB" is the only escape. Size, range, accuracy, speed, durability, high football IQ, attitude - there's your "franchise QB". Wash, lather, rinse repeat...until you strike gold.

In the meantime, be like Bill.

Mac Jones is safe in New England for now because he's cheap but you know when he demands 40m or whatever, Belichick will cut him loose and make him some other team's problem.

 

[PatsFan1283]

What if you don’t develop the guy? You just go 20 years without a QB?

keep drafting until you find one of lkke 5 humans on the planet that can be Mahomes?

Dude you just said you can win without elite QBs now you need to just draft FOREVER to find 1?

You’re talking out of both sides of your mouth

 

[CHOPTALK]

Bad risks as opposed to what, constantly trying to recycle QBs?

Drafting a QB, developing him then trading him before payday. What if the next guy you draft sucks? You just torched off a decade now. The years pile up very quickly and you’re operating a business, you can’t just blow forever trying to hit a home run.

It’s very, very, very easy to get into QB purgatory in the nfl. And once you’re in it, can be hard to get out. Not like it’s a simulation and you got 20 years to find a guy. You can’t just suck forever hoping to find Mahomes, sometimes you gotta bite the bullet and pay Kirk Cousins and hope to run good.

What you said a few post ago to SJ 100% correct


What you said to SJ is the real issue.
You can’t exploit teams over paying for QBs because they are in reality not overpaying them . Because like you said the edges you can gain by saving money on the QB at the other non QB positions are so small you can’t make up the difference .

Unless the NFL has drastic rule changes that lowers the QBs importance they are always going to take up a huge portion of the salary cap . Of Course that window a team gets during a great QBs rookie contract can be an amazing thing for a team . But when the cheap years are over you still gotta pay up and deal with the cap causalities .

What you are suggesting SJ is after the rookie contract if the QB is not top 5 they need to move on and get a new rookie so you can have better players at other positions .

that’s not gonna win you any championships

 

[PatsFan1283]

And I guarantee belichick strategy isn’t just draft QBs until he finds the next elite 1, he’s fucking 71 years old man. His owner is 82

Are you aware humans expire? Sun don’t shine forever

 

[SheriffJoe]

What if you don’t develop the guy? You just go 20 years without a QB?

keep drafting until you find one of lkke 5 humans on the planet that can be Mahomes?

Dude you just said you can win without elite QBs now you need to just draft FOREVER to find 1?

You’re talking out of both sides of your mouth

If you don't draft and develop one and keep on signing the Tannehills, the Kirk Cousins and Mayfields for 20 years, then yeah, your team is gonna suck forever.

I never understand how fans in every sport believe other teams garbage will somehow improve their roster. Nobody is trading a superstar in their prime, not even in modern video games... unless they are somehow disgruntled/frequently injured, whatever.. which is a whole new set of problems.

Is Mahomes available? No.
Is Allen available? No.
Is Burrow available? No.
Hebert? N-O!
How about even Trevor Lawrence? No?

Sure, trades/FAs are fine if you want to fill in those missing pieces on your roster, but in terms of building a proper lasting winning foundation, drafting and developing is the only way. No more so than QB in the NFL.

Daniel Jones won't win anymore than Mac Jones.

Yet the fans (FANATICS) still want to believe..

 

[CHOPTALK]

If you don't draft and develop one and keep on signing the Tannehills, the Kirk Cousins and Mayfields for 20 years, then yeah, your team is gonna suck forever.

I never understand how fans in every sport believe other teams garbage will somehow improve their roster. Nobody is trading a superstar in their prime, not even in modern video games... unless they are somehow disgruntled/frequently injured, whatever.. which is a whole new set of problems.

Is Mahomes available? No.
Is Allen available? No.
Is Burrow available? No.
Hebert? N-O!
How about even Trevor Lawrence? No?

Sure, trades/FAs are fine if you want to fill in those missing pieces on your roster, but in terms of building a proper lasting winning foundation, drafting and developing is the only way. No more so than QB in the NFL.

Daniel Jones won't win anymore than Mac Jones.

Yet the fans (FANATICS) still want to believe..

This is a decent post but there are a few exceptions Drew Brees , Rich Gannon .
But for the most part pretty valid .

But the problem is you make it sound so much easier to draft and develop the next great QB then it actually is .

So paying up for top 10 QB is a better option then drafting a QB in some cases