DPR and PRD lets track it

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HomePRDAwayPRDPRD DifferentialOutcome
Detroit-30.83Arizona34.0764.9W, ATSW
Green Bay51.27St Louis-5.2856.55W, ATSW
NY Giants8San Francisco-40.5748.57W, ATSL
Atlanta15.27Washington-17.6632.93W, ATSL
Philadelphia-2.22New Orleans-21.8119.59W, ATSW
Dallas10.62New England29.4718.85W, ATSW
Kansas City-17.3Chicago-36.1418.84L, ATSL
Cincinnati28.15Seattle13.1515W, ATST
Oakland-0.15Denver12.8613.01W, ATSW
Tampa Bay-28.6Jacksonville-19.079.53L, ATSL
Baltimore-12.88Cleveland-8.54.38W, ATSW
San Diego9.47Pittsburgh8.261.21TBD
Tennessee23.65Buffalo23.840.19W, ATSW (Final line I saw was PK)
Houston-18.58Indianapolis-18.580This was a push from the start


Much better week this week 10-2 SU 7-4-1 ATS

One game left, slight lean for SD and big lean on over.
 

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First off is the Chicago/KC game, the biggest DPR combined total on the card with Cutler back in the saddle for Chicago, i see a big total there.

Next is SD/Pitt, they have the highest overall combined total which means we are in for points and i'm already all over this total for other reasons, just more assurance.

The top two are the next best overall combined totals, i like the overs on both of these also.


Well the Chicago/KC game was a dud, and Dallas did nothing to help the total in that game. Cincy/Seattle went over but it's beginning to look like Cincy is an auto over team despite this system pointing at them.
 

LADY LUCK
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One thing i was working on last night was using these numbers to predict totals, i think the best way to do that is to combine the two teams OPR and DPR, obviously if those numbers are higher that would tend to mean that the two offenses would be poised for big games or the two defenses would be poised for giving up lots of points, a couple of games stood out.

TeamOff PRDef PRPRDTeamOff PRDef PRPRDOPR TotalDPR Total
Cincinnati123.0294.8728.16Seattle105.1892.0313.15228.2186.9
New England119.6390.1629.47Dallas103.2992.6710.63222.92182.83
San Diego107.8798.49.47Pittsburgh108.63100.378.26216.5198.77
Green Bay125.974.6351.26St. Louis89.2494.52- 5.28215.14169.15
Buffalo104.4480.623.85Tennessee109.1785.5223.65213.61166.12
Arizona106.4172.3434.06Detroit79.72110.55- 30.83186.13182.89
Atlanta101.2185.9415.27Washington84.46102.12- 17.65185.67188.06
Cleveland98.8107.3- 8.50Baltimore80.4493.32- 12.87179.24200.62
Denver80.7667.912.86Oakland96.3596.5- 0.16177.11164.4
Philadelphia82.284.42- 2.23New Orleans94.48116.29- 21.81176.68200.71
Kansas City89.2106.5- 17.29Chicago75.98112.12- 36.14165.18218.62
N.Y. Giants96.3788.378San Francisco67.71108.28- 40.57164.08196.65
Jacksonville78.997.97- 19.07Tampa Bay71.1699.76- 28.60150.06197.73


Good stuff....I am not a totals person but you have my attention. I never dreamed you would take it in this direction.
 

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Just noticed this after looking at the DPR total again, the top 4 lowest DPR totals all went under this week and the fifth highest only went over because AZ turned all of their defense in to points.



TeamOff PRDef PRPRDTeamOff PRDef PRPRDOPR TotalDPR TotalResultTotal
Denver80.7667.912.86Oakland96.3596.5- 0.16177.11164.4Under26
Buffalo104.4480.623.85Tennessee109.1785.5223.65213.61166.12Under27
Green Bay125.974.6351.26St. Louis89.2494.52- 5.28215.14169.15Under34
New England119.6390.1629.47Dallas103.2992.6710.63222.92182.83Under36
Arizona106.4172.3434.06Detroit79.72110.55- 30.83186.13182.89Over59
Cincinnati123.0294.8728.16Seattle105.1892.0313.15228.2186.9Over51
Atlanta101.2185.9415.27Washington84.46102.12- 17.65185.67188.06Under44
N.Y. Giants96.3788.378San Francisco67.71108.28- 40.57164.08196.65Over57
Jacksonville78.997.97- 19.07Tampa Bay71.1699.76- 28.60150.06197.73Over69
San Diego107.8798.49.47Pittsburgh108.63100.378.26216.5198.77Under44
Cleveland98.8107.3- 8.50Baltimore80.4493.32- 12.87179.24200.62Over63
Philadelphia82.284.42- 2.23New Orleans94.48116.29- 21.81176.68200.71Over56
Kansas City89.2106.5- 17.29Chicago75.98112.12- 36.14165.18218.62Under35
 

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This weeks numbers:

TeamOff PRDef PRPRDTeamOff PRDef PRPRDOPR TotalDPR TotalPRD DiffO/ULine
New England121.5483.7237.82Indianapolis71.4990.07-18.58193.03173.7956.4
Green Bay117.4462.8354.61San Diego105.8693.9211.95223.3156.7542.6650-10
Arizona111.967.5644.33Pittsburgh102.34100.212.13214.24167.7742.244.5-3
Tennessee98.9887.811.18Miami77.1395.8-18.67176.11183.629.8543.5-3
N.Y. Jets78.0662.2815.78Washington81.990.35-8.45159.96152.6324.2340.5-6
Atlanta90.7383.427.31New Orleans93.71108.21-14.5184.44191.6321.8151.5-3
Minnesota84.4782.362.11Kansas City88.09102.34-14.25172.56184.716.3644-3.5
Chicago79.2105.83-26.63Detroit73.54116.21-42.67152.74222.0416.0443-3
Carolina88.4864.0924.39Seattle102.2793.368.91190.75157.4515.4841+6.5
Baltimore80.6998.02-17.33San Francisco76.83108.86-32.03157.52206.8814.744-2.5
N.Y. Giants100.1691.398.77Philadelphia83.6885.69-2183.84177.0810.7750+4
Denver77.3570.956.4Cleveland102.19101.930.26179.54172.886.1442.5-4
Jacksonville87.16100.51-13.35Houston72.3290.9-18.58159.48191.415.2343-1
Buffalo103.5678.8124.75Cincinnati115.5794.4421.13219.13173.253.6242.5-3.5
 

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Going to keep crunching data and looking for trends and keys. I am going to add something to factor in turnovers and rushing offense, finally have a chance to breathe at work.
 

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One thing i noticed that last week four games included teams that both had a negative PRD and 3 of 4 of those went over. the previous week that did not happen (it was 2 games and 2 unders) but only 5 of 15 games went over in that week so i am counting it as a anomaly.

Those games this week are CHI/DET, BALT/SF, and JAC/HOU, keeping my eye on those.
 

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One thing i noticed that last week four games included teams that both had a negative PRD and 3 of 4 of those went over. the previous week that did not happen (it was 2 games and 2 unders) but only 5 of 15 games went over in that week so i am counting it as a anomaly.

Those games this week are CHI/DET, BALT/SF, and JAC/HOU, keeping my eye on those.


Out of the last two weeks double negative games are 6 out of 7 over. Will continue to monitor this (and make some calculated pays based on it).
 

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TeamOff PRDef PRPRDTeamOff PRDef PRPRDOPR TotalDPR TotalPRD DiffO/ULineTotalOutcome
New England121.5483.7237.82Indianapolis71.4990.07-18.58193.03173.7956.454-961W, ATSL
Green Bay117.4462.8354.61San Diego105.8693.9211.95223.3156.7542.6650-1047W, ATSL
Arizona111.967.5644.33Pittsburgh102.34100.212.13214.24167.7742.244.5-338L, ATSL
Tennessee98.9887.811.18Miami77.1395.8-18.67176.11183.629.8543.5-348L, ATSL
N.Y. Jets78.0662.2815.78Washington81.990.35-8.45159.96152.6324.2340.5-654W, ATSW
Atlanta90.7383.427.31New Orleans93.71108.21-14.5184.44191.6321.8151.5-352L, ATSL
Minnesota84.4782.362.11Kansas City88.09102.34-14.25172.56184.716.3644-3.526W, ATSW
Chicago79.2105.83-26.63Detroit73.54116.21-42.67152.74222.0416.0443-371L, ATSL
Carolina88.4864.0924.39Seattle102.2793.368.91190.75157.4515.4841+6.550W, ATSW
Baltimore80.6998.02-17.33San Francisco76.83108.86-32.03157.52206.8814.744-2.545L, ATSL
N.Y. Giants100.1691.398.77Philadelphia83.6885.69-2183.84177.0810.7750+434L,ATSL
Denver77.3570.956.4Cleveland102.19101.930.26179.54172.886.1442.5-449L, ATSL
Jacksonville87.16100.51-13.35Houston72.3290.9-18.58159.48191.415.2343-151L, ATSL
Buffalo103.5678.8124.75Cincinnati115.5794.4421.13219.13173.253.6242.5+3.555L, ATSL


5-9 SU 3-11 ATS

Good god thats bad.
 

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TeamOff PRDef PRPRDTeamOff PRDef PRPRDOPR TotalDPR TotalPRD DiffO/ULine
Arizona105.4572.2533.19Baltimore80.07101.75-21.67185.5217454.8648-7.5
Buffalo98.4783.9314.55Jacksonville83.52103.61-20.08181.99187.5434.6342-4.5
Seattle101.0687.3113.75San Francisco84.69101.7-17.01185.75189.0130.7642-6
Cleveland95.5191.024.49St. Louis68.8691.87-23.01164.37182.8927.541.5+4.5
Minnesota80.3784.39-4.03Detroit80.28110.19-29.91160.65194.5825.8844.5-3
Carolina83.2468.7714.47Philadelphia79.9582.17-2.22163.19150.9416.6946.5-3
Pittsburgh104.1597.037.13Kansas City88.8597.26-8.41193194.2915.54 -2
Washington77.0593.41-16.36Tampa Bay77.58105.66-28.08154.63199.0711.7243-3.5
N.Y. Giants94.0386.97.13Dallas94.9898.51-3.53189.01185.4110.6645.5-5
New England118.3987.530.89N.Y. Jets83.3960.9322.46201.78148.438.4348-9
San Diego104.3396.198.14Oakland93.4790.72.77197.8186.895.3747-4
Houston82.1688.11-5.95Miami80.1289.66-9.54162.28177.773.5943.5+4
Atlanta92.8987.335.56Tennessee92.3390.122.21185.22177.453.3548-4
New Orleans95.98106.84-10.86Indianapolis81.2893.9-12.61177.26200.741.7552+5
 

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As we noted games that contain both teams being at a negative PRD over the last two weeks have gone over 6 of 7 games.

Those games this week are Minn/Det, Wash/Tampa Bay, Houston/Miami, NO/Ind
 

LADY LUCK
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As we noted games that contain both teams being at a negative PRD over the last two weeks have gone over 6 of 7 games.

Those games this week are Minn/Det, Wash/Tampa Bay, Houston/Miami, NO/Ind


make that 10 of 11...

nice work by justanobserver :toast:
 

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It's actually 9 of 11, but I can dig these 3/4 weeks. Let's see what gems this little numbers system brings up next week. Can't wait to get to work and look at the results from this sunday, also can't wait for the text from my book telling me when he is going to swing by to drop that envelope. Let's all continue to get dialed in!
 

LADY LUCK
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It appears to me there are going to be two double negatives this week. The only problem is that they are both divisional games.
 

LADY LUCK
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It's actually 9 of 11, but I can dig these 3/4 weeks. Let's see what gems this little numbers system brings up next week. Can't wait to get to work and look at the results from this sunday, also can't wait for the text from my book telling me when he is going to swing by to drop that envelope. Let's all continue to get dialed in!


:103631605
 

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8-5 SU and 5-8 ATS

Starting to see that without added data this isn't doing well ATS. However I am going to keep posting this as is to find trends that are valuable, for example the double negative overs.
 

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One thing i have noticed is that teams that are favored by the PRD Diff but are underdogs by the largest margin are 3-0 on the road straight up in the last three weeks. Here are the games:

Week5
Cleveland98.8107.3-8.5Baltimore80.4493.32-12.88179.24200.624.3842.5+663W, ATSW

Week6
Carolina88.4864.0924.39Seattle102.2793.368.91190.75157.4515.4841+6.550W,ATSW

Week7
New Orleans95.98106.84-10.86Indianapolis81.2893.9-12.61177.26200.741.7552+548W, ATSW
 

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Another note for this is that they were all away dog SU winners.

I made a killing on Carolina based off of this in week 6
 

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