DPR and PRD lets track it

[justanobserver]

Lets start with DPR totals over 185:

Team	PRD	Team	PRD	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
New Orleans	-8.56	Washington	-14.99	186.04	209.58	6.43	50.5	-1
Jacksonville	-16.73	Baltimore	-22.13	166.27	205.13	5.4	48	5.5
Dallas	-6.45	Tampa Bay	-21.64	172.83	200.91	15.19	43	+1.5
Pittsburgh	-3.81	Cleveland	-5.81	182.49	192.11	2	41	-4.5
Green Bay	29.15	Detroit	-29.01	190.2	190.07	58.16	47.5	-11.5
St. Louis	-9.33	Chicago	-15.85	160.04	185.22	6.52		-7.5

 

[justanobserver]

And Double negatives:

Team	PRD	Team	PRD	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
New Orleans	-8.56	Washington	-14.99	186.04	209.58	6.43	50.5	-1
Jacksonville	-16.73	Baltimore	-22.13	166.27	205.13	5.4	48	5.5
Dallas	-6.45	Tampa Bay	-21.64	172.83	200.91	15.19	43	+1.5
Pittsburgh	-3.81	Cleveland	-5.81	182.49	192.11	2	41	-4.5
St. Louis	-9.33	Chicago	-15.85	160.04	185.22	6.52		-7.5
Philadelphia	-2.71	Miami	-8.11	168.54	179.35	5.4	46.5	-6

 

[justanobserver]

Off the bat you can see there is a lot of overlap.

Three games I will be targeting are NO/Wash, Philly/Miami, and Jack/Balt

 

[justanobserver]

STL is a no over for me, pair them with Chicago and i hate it.

team = Rams and season = 2015
SU: 4-4-0 (0.88, 50.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 4-4-0 (1.38, 50.0%) avg line: 0.5 +6: 6-1-1 (85.7%) -6: 4-4-0 (50.0%) +10: 7-1-0 (87.5%) -10: 2-6-0 (25.0%) O/U: 2-6-0 (-5.38, 25.0%) avg total: 42.8 +6: 1-7-0 (12.5%) -6: 3-5-0 (37.5%) +10: 1-7-0 (12.5%) -10: 5-3-0 (62.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.8 135.5 27.8 16.1 177.1 1.2 3.1 6.6 4.8 4.2 19.1 Opp 27.4 104.0 34.9 24.1 219.8 1.8 6.2 3.5 3.0 5.1 18.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 13, 2015 view Sunday 1 2015 Rams Seahawks home 0-7 10-3 14-3 7-18 34-31 3.5 42.0 3 6.5 23.0 14.8 8.2 W W O 1 Sep 20, 2015 view Sunday 2 2015 Rams Redskins away 0-10 0-7 10-0 0-7 10-24 -3.0 41.5 -14 -17.0 -7.5 -12.2 4.8 L L U 0 Sep 27, 2015 view Sunday 3 2015 Rams Steelers home 0-3 3-6 0-0 3-3 6-12 0.0 47.0 -6 -6.0 -29.0 -17.5 -11.5 L L U 0 Oct 04, 2015 view Sunday 4 2015 Rams Cardinals away 7-3 3-6 7-3 7-10 24-22 6.5 43.5 2 8.5 2.5 5.5 -3.0 W W O 0 Oct 11, 2015 view Sunday 5 2015 Rams Packers away 0-14 10-0 0-7 0-3 10-24 9.0 45.5 -14 -5.0 -11.5 -8.2 -3.2 L L U 0 Oct 25, 2015 view Sunday 7 2015 Rams Browns home 10-0 0-3 7-3 7-0 24-6 -6.0 42.0 18 12.0 -12.0 0.0 -12.0 W W U 0 Nov 01, 2015 view Sunday 8 2015 Rams Fortyniners home 2-3 18-3 0-0 7-0 27-6 -8.0 40.5 21 13 -7.5 2.8 -10.2 W W U 0 Nov 08, 2015 view Sunday 9 2015 Rams Vikings away 6-10 9-0 0-8 3-0 18-21 2.0 40.0 -3 -1 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 L L U 1 Nov 15, 2015 view Sunday 10 2015 Rams Bears home -7.5 42.5

 

[justanobserver]

I would love Pitt/Cle but no Big Ben scares me.

 

[justanobserver]

Just got NO at over 50, wanted to jump on that before the number gets too high.

 

[justanobserver]

Lets start with DPR totals over 185:

Team	PRD	Team	PRD	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
New Orleans	-8.56	Washington	-14.99	186.04	209.58	6.43	50.5	-1
Jacksonville	-16.73	Baltimore	-22.13	166.27	205.13	5.4	48	5.5
Dallas	-6.45	Tampa Bay	-21.64	172.83	200.91	15.19	43	+1.5
Pittsburgh	-3.81	Cleveland	-5.81	182.49	192.11	2	41	-4.5
Green Bay	29.15	Detroit	-29.01	190.2	190.07	58.16	47.5	-11.5
St. Louis	-9.33	Chicago	-15.85	160.04	185.22	6.52		-7.5

2-4

 

[justanobserver]

And Double negatives:

Team	PRD	Team	PRD	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
New Orleans	-8.56	Washington	-14.99	186.04	209.58	6.43	50.5	-1
Jacksonville	-16.73	Baltimore	-22.13	166.27	205.13	5.4	48	5.5
Dallas	-6.45	Tampa Bay	-21.64	172.83	200.91	15.19	43	+1.5
Pittsburgh	-3.81	Cleveland	-5.81	182.49	192.11	2	41	-4.5
St. Louis	-9.33	Chicago	-15.85	160.04	185.22	6.52		-7.5
Philadelphia	-2.71	Miami	-8.11	168.54	179.35	5.4	46.5	-6

2-4

 

[justanobserver]

This did not hit last week but hit again with Tennessee yesterday, a straight up winner.

Tennessee

85.06

87.67

-2.6

New Orleans

101.71

108.68

-6.98

186.77

196.35

4.38

48

+8

62

W

ATSW

4 of 5 weeks hitting the biggest underdog on the road?

Wish i would have been a bit more vocal about this so everyone could've tailed but I slammed KC hard in my stupid parlays (i call these stupid because i know i have low odds of winning them) and it basically kept me at even for the weekend. Everything else was a mess.

 

[justanobserver]

STL is a no over for me, pair them with Chicago and i hate it.

team = Rams and season = 2015
SU: 4-4-0 (0.88, 50.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 4-4-0 (1.38, 50.0%) avg line: 0.5 +6: 6-1-1 (85.7%) -6: 4-4-0 (50.0%) +10: 7-1-0 (87.5%) -10: 2-6-0 (25.0%) O/U: 2-6-0 (-5.38, 25.0%) avg total: 42.8 +6: 1-7-0 (12.5%) -6: 3-5-0 (37.5%) +10: 1-7-0 (12.5%) -10: 5-3-0 (62.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.8 135.5 27.8 16.1 177.1 1.2 3.1 6.6 4.8 4.2 19.1 Opp 27.4 104.0 34.9 24.1 219.8 1.8 6.2 3.5 3.0 5.1 18.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 13, 2015 view Sunday 1 2015 Rams Seahawks home 0-7 10-3 14-3 7-18 34-31 3.5 42.0 3 6.5 23.0 14.8 8.2 W W O 1 Sep 20, 2015 view Sunday 2 2015 Rams Redskins away 0-10 0-7 10-0 0-7 10-24 -3.0 41.5 -14 -17.0 -7.5 -12.2 4.8 L L U 0 Sep 27, 2015 view Sunday 3 2015 Rams Steelers home 0-3 3-6 0-0 3-3 6-12 0.0 47.0 -6 -6.0 -29.0 -17.5 -11.5 L L U 0 Oct 04, 2015 view Sunday 4 2015 Rams Cardinals away 7-3 3-6 7-3 7-10 24-22 6.5 43.5 2 8.5 2.5 5.5 -3.0 W W O 0 Oct 11, 2015 view Sunday 5 2015 Rams Packers away 0-14 10-0 0-7 0-3 10-24 9.0 45.5 -14 -5.0 -11.5 -8.2 -3.2 L L U 0 Oct 25, 2015 view Sunday 7 2015 Rams Browns home 10-0 0-3 7-3 7-0 24-6 -6.0 42.0 18 12.0 -12.0 0.0 -12.0 W W U 0 Nov 01, 2015 view Sunday 8 2015 Rams Fortyniners home 2-3 18-3 0-0 7-0 27-6 -8.0 40.5 21 13 -7.5 2.8 -10.2 W W U 0 Nov 08, 2015 view Sunday 9 2015 Rams Vikings away 6-10 9-0 0-8 3-0 18-21 2.0 40.0 -3 -1 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 L L U 1 Nov 15, 2015 view Sunday 10 2015 Rams Bears home -7.5 42.5

I would love Pitt/Cle but no Big Ben scares me.

Just got NO at over 50, wanted to jump on that before the number gets too high.

Totally wrong about STL but the Bears just opened a can of whoopass on them to hit that number, no way i couldve seen that coming. Was right about the Steelers but only because Johnny Football is terrible. NO is an auto over for me from here on out, Rob Ryan might be the worst defensive coordinator in the history of football.

 

[justanobserver]

Just to show i was being serious on KC

the file attachment here sucks, here is the gist of what i was trying to post.

Wager details for ticket number 99829848-1:

Wager Type:	Parlay (3 team)
Wager Status:	Win
Risk / To Win Amount:	50.00 / 529.89 (USD) Accepted 11/15/2015 4:05 PM - EST
Won:	253.75
Amount Paid:	253.75
Item #1
Wager Type:	Total
Outcome:	Cancelled
Sport / Period:	NFL Football / Game
Selection:	Minnesota Vikings/Oakland Raiders 11/15/2015 4:05:01 PM - (EST) Over 44 -110
Item #2
Wager Type:	Money Line
Outcome:	Win
Sport / Period:	NFL Football / Game
Selection:	Kansas City Chiefs 11/15/2015 4:25:01 PM - (EST) +170
Item #3
Wager Type:	Money Line
Outcome:	Win
Sport / Period:	NFL Football / Game
Selection:	Arizona Cardinals 11/15/2015 8:30:01 PM - (EST) +125

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


Wager details for ticket number 99830415-1:

Wager Type:	Parlay (3 team)
Wager Status:	Win
Risk / To Win Amount:	55.00 / 651.86 (USD) Accepted 11/15/2015 4:06 PM - EST
Won:	337.70
Amount Paid:	337.70
Item #1
Wager Type:	Money Line
Outcome:	Win
Sport / Period:	NFL Football / 1st Half
Selection:	Kansas City Chiefs 11/15/2015 4:25:01 PM - (EST) +155
Item #2
Wager Type:	Money Line
Outcome:	Win
Sport / Period:	NFL Football / 1st Half
Selection:	New York Giants 11/15/2015 4:25:01 PM - (EST) +180
Item #3
Wager Type:	Total
Outcome:	Cancelled
Sport / Period:	NFL Football / 1st Half
Selection:	New England Patriots/New York Giants 11/15/2015 4:25:01 PM - (EST) Under 27 -125

​

 

[justanobserver]

Bloodbath this week, but we are ready to get back on the horse, numbers coming soon.

 

[justanobserver]

Here are the numbers:

Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
Oakland	100.52	89.56	10.96	Detroit	82.61	105.65	-23.04	183.13	195.21	34	47.5	-1.5
Green Bay	103.39	80.07	23.32	Minnesota	83.57	87.15	-3.57	186.96	167.22	26.89	44.5	+1
Seattle	91.65	87.37	4.28	San Francisco	78.29	99.24	-20.95	169.94	186.61	25.23	40	-12.5
Carolina	84.76	69.1	15.66	Washington	89.63	96.29	-6.66	174.39	165.39	22.32	45	-7
Philadelphia	81.15	83.47	-2.32	Tampa Bay	80.17	102.14	-21.97	161.32	185.61	19.65	45	-5.5
Atlanta	92.44	83.46	8.99	Indianapolis	79.05	88.68	-9.63	171.49	172.14	18.62	47.5	-6
N.Y. Jets	85.78	79.08	6.69	Houston	82.07	90.94	-8.87	167.85	170.02	15.56	44.5	+1
Tennessee	90.66	95.1	-4.44	Jacksonville	80.98	99.66	-18.68	171.64	194.76	14.24	43	+3
Kansas City	91.47	79.77	11.7	San Diego	101.76	102.26	-0.5	193.23	182.03	12.2	44	-3
New England	111.13	84.81	26.32	Buffalo	97.25	82.39	14.85	208.38	167.2	11.47	48.5	-7
Arizona	107.04	74.16	32.88	Cincinnati	104.6	83.09	21.51	211.64	157.25	11.37	47	-3
Dallas	86.84	90.25	-3.41	Miami	89.58	96.28	-6.69	176.42	186.53	3.28	47.5	PK
Chicago	90.63	94.84	-4.21	Denver	67.91	74.58	-6.68	158.54	169.42	2.47	43	PK
St. Louis	75.73	90.55	-14.81	Baltimore	84.62	101.36	-16.74	160.35	191.91	1.93	41.5	+2

 

[justanobserver]

Here are the DPR totals over 185:

Team	Team	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
Oakland	Detroit	183.13	195.21	34	47.5	-1.5
Tennessee	Jacksonville	171.64	194.76	14.24	43	+3
St. Louis	Baltimore	160.35	191.91	1.93	41.5	+2
Seattle	San Francisco	169.94	186.61	25.23	40	-12.5
Dallas	Miami	176.42	186.53	3.28	47.5	PK
Philadelphia	Tampa Bay	161.32	185.61	19.65	45	-5.5

This metric is 21-15 since week 5

Of these i like Oak, Tenn, and STL and will likely be betting them.

 

[justanobserver]

Here are the double negatives:

Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
Tennessee	90.66	95.1	-4.44	Jacksonville	80.98	99.66	-18.68	171.64	194.76	14.24	43	+3
St. Louis	75.73	90.55	-14.81	Baltimore	84.62	101.36	-16.74	160.35	191.91	1.93	41.5	+2
Dallas	86.84	90.25	-3.41	Miami	89.58	96.28	-6.69	176.42	186.53	3.28	47.5	PK
Philadelphia	81.15	83.47	-2.32	Tampa Bay	80.17	102.14	-21.97	161.32	185.61	19.65	45	-5.5
Chicago	90.63	94.84	-4.21	Denver	67.91	74.58	-6.68	158.54	169.42	2.47	43	PK

This metric is 16-9 since week 5, and only last week was bad so I am going to continue to use it

As usual lots of overlap here.

I will likely bet Tenn and STL, not sure on the others.

 

[indiana]

Observer..........BOL with your action this week..........indy

 

[justanobserver]

Wish i would have been a bit more vocal about this so everyone could've tailed but I slammed KC hard in my stupid parlays (i call these stupid because i know i have low odds of winning them) and it basically kept me at even for the weekend. Everything else was a mess.

This game again has Tennessee slotted in it, the biggest ATS underdog that has the best PRD.

 

[stflush]

This game again has Tennessee slotted in it, the biggest ATS underdog that has the best PRD.

So a Tenn moneyline and Over parlay?

 

[justanobserver]

So a Tenn moneyline and Over parlay?

Yep, going to hit it big.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Yep, going to hit it big.

Careful with going big on TEN. Couple more important injuries this past weekend. Not good. Especially on road on short week.