DPR and PRD lets track it

[justanobserver]

Here are this weeks numbers:

Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
Green Bay	115.89	73.39	42.49	Denver	72.48	69.6	2.88	188.37	142.99	39.61	45.5	-2.5
Atlanta	88.88	84.23	4.65	Tampa Bay	85.67	110.59	-24.92	174.55	194.82	29.57	48	-7
Arizona	105.45	72.25	33.19	Cleveland	96.58	90.53	6.04	202.03	162.78	27.15	47	-4.5
Minnesota	87.7	89.62	-1.93	Chicago	81.04	108.56	-27.53	168.74	198.18	25.6	42.5	-2
Kansas City	90.31	93.13	-2.83	Detroit	84.27	111.47	-27.2	174.58	204.6	24.37	46	-6
Cincinnati	116.1	92.11	23.98	Pittsburgh	97.75	97.37	0.38	213.85	189.48	23.6
Carolina	78.4	66.95	11.44	Indianapolis	81.24	91.56	-10.32	159.64	158.51	21.76	45.5	-6.5
Tennessee	87.23	84.19	3.04	Houston	81.29	98.45	-17.16	168.52	182.64	20.2
Seattle	98.63	84.95	13.68	Dallas	89.58	95.91	-6.32	188.21	180.86	20	40.5	-6
San Diego	100.56	102.4	-1.84	Baltimore	80.07	101.75	-21.67	180.63	204.15	19.83	50.5	+3
New England	113.21	89.24	23.97	Miami	91.89	86.58	5.32	205.1	175.82	18.65	51	-7.5
N.Y. Giants	92.43	83.91	8.52	New Orleans	93.49	102.15	-8.66	185.92	186.06	17.18	49	+3.5
N.Y. Jets	86.05	68.47	17.58	Oakland	99.59	89.16	10.43	185.64	157.63	7.15	44	-1.5
San Francisco	82.8	100.08	-17.29	St. Louis	71.69	94.31	-22.63	154.49	194.39	5.34	49	+8

 

[justanobserver]

Double negative games this week are:

SF/STL, SD/Balt, KC/Det, Min/Chi

 

[justanobserver]

Went back through the double negative results, only three of those games were interconference and two went under KC/Chi week 5, NO/Ind week 7, the one interconference double negative that went over was Balt/SF week 6 and it went over by 1 point.

Also noticed that the line favorite lost all three of those games.

Something to ponder, that game this week will be KC/Det, might be placing a small wager on Det ML and Under, a little two team parlay maybe.

 

[justanobserver]

One thing i have noticed is that teams that are favored by the PRD Diff but are underdogs by the largest margin are 3-0 on the road straight up in the last three weeks. Here are the games:

Week5

Cleveland

98.8

107.3

-8.5

Baltimore

80.44

93.32

-12.88

179.24

200.62

4.38

42.5

+6

63

W, ATSW

Week6

Carolina

88.48

64.09

24.39

Seattle

102.27

93.36

8.91

190.75

157.45

15.48

41

+6.5

50

W,ATSW

Week7

New Orleans

95.98

106.84

-10.86

Indianapolis

81.28

93.9

-12.61

177.26

200.74

1.75

52

+5

48

W, ATSW

That game this week is SF/STL

 

[justanobserver]

Double negative games this week are:

SF/STL, SD/Balt, KC/Det, Min/Chi

3 of 4 again this week. 12 of 15 over the last 5.

 

[justanobserver]

Overall we are 6-7 SU and 6-7 ATS for another pitiful week.

 

[justanobserver]

Starting to get enough data to crunch overall numbers.

Here is something interesting, if a games combined DPR is over 185, the over is 18-9 for a 66% over percentage.

Team	Team	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line	Total	Total Outcome
Chicago	Detroit	152.74	222.04	16.04	43	-3	71	Over
Kansas City	Chicago	165.18	218.62	18.84	44.5	-9	35	Under
Baltimore	San Francisco	157.52	206.88	14.7	44	-2.5	45	Over
Kansas City	Detroit	174.58	204.6	24.37	46	-6	55	Over
San Diego	Baltimore	180.63	204.15	19.83	50.5	+3	55	Over
New Orleans	Indianapolis	177.26	200.74	1.75	52	+5	48	Under
Philadelphia	New Orleans	176.68	200.71	19.59	49.5	-6	56	Over
Cleveland	Baltimore	179.24	200.62	4.38	42.5	+6	63	Over
Washington	Tampa Bay	154.63	199.07	11.72	43	-3.5	61	Over
San Diego	Pittsburgh	216.5	198.77	1.21	45.5	-3.5	44	Under
Minnesota	Chicago	168.74	198.18	25.6	42.5	-2	43	Over
Jacksonville	Tampa Bay	150.06	197.73	9.53	42	+2	69	Over
NY Giants	San Francisco	164.08	196.65	48.57	43.5	-7	57	Over
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	174.55	194.82	29.57	48	-7	43	Under
Minnesota	Detroit	160.65	194.58	25.88	44.5	-3	47	Over
San Francisco	St. Louis	154.49	194.39	5.34	40	+8	33	Under
Pittsburgh	Kansas City	193	194.29	15.54	42.5	-2	36	Under
Atlanta	New Orleans	184.44	191.63	21.81	51.5	-3	52	Over
Jacksonville	Houston	159.48	191.41	5.23	43	-1	51	Over
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	213.85	189.48	23.6	48	+1.5	26	Under
Seattle	San Francisco	185.75	189.01	30.76	42	-6	23	Under
Atlanta	Washington	185.67	188.06	32.93	48	-7	44	Under
Buffalo	Jacksonville	181.99	187.54	34.63	42	-4.5	65	Over
Cincinnati	Seattle	228.2	186.9	15	44	-3	51	Over
San Diego	Oakland	197.8	186.89	5.37	47	-4	66	Over
N.Y. Giants	New Orleans	185.92	186.06	17.18	49	+3.5	101	Over
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	189.01	185.41	10.66	45.5	-5	47	Over

 

[cd329]

Justanobserver, would that mean every game next week is an over play based on numbers up above?

 

[justanobserver]

Justanobserver, would that mean every game next week is an over play based on numbers up above?

I wouldn't say that, lets wait for the numbers and identify key games, but games over 185 have been hitting at a high percentage, they are also a lot of the double negative games so more analysis is needed.

 

[justanobserver]

Here are this weeks numbers (a couple totals missing):

Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
New England	115.84	85.26	30.57	Washington	84.75	97.92	-13.17	200.59	183.18	43.74	52	-14
N.Y. Giants	99.94	93.81	6.13	Tampa Bay	85.58	111.04	-25.47	185.52	204.85	31.6	47.5	-2.5
Atlanta	92.35	84.3	8.05	San Francisco	78.82	100.23	-21.42	171.17	184.53	29.47	45	-6
N.Y. Jets	86.76	76.64	10.12	Jacksonville	82.53	99.05	-16.52	169.29	175.69	26.64		-8
San Diego	103.22	102.54	0.68	Chicago	82.82	103.46	-20.64	186.04	206	21.32	49.5	-3.5
Green Bay	110.91	76.06	34.85	Carolina	78.14	64.46	13.69	189.05	140.52	21.16	46.5	-2.5
Cincinatti	107.64	86.48	21.16	Cleveland	94.87	94.28	0.59	202.51	180.76	20.57	46	-10.5
Denver	75.14	69.61	5.53	Indianapolis	76.96	89.87	-12.91	152.1	159.48	18.44	45	-3
Oakland	103.93	89.28	14.65	Pittsburgh	90.29	93.28	-2.99	194.22	182.56	17.64	48	+4.5
Buffalo	94.09	82.94	11.15	Miami	87.34	93.67	-6.32	181.43	176.61	17.47	44	-3
Minnesota	85.54	90.27	-4.74	St. Louis	75.98	87.49	-11.51	161.52	177.76	6.77	39.5	-2.5
Philadelphia	76.38	79.1	-2.72	Dallas	86.05	94	-7.95	162.43	173.1	5.23	44.5	-3
Tennessee	85.06	87.67	-2.6	New Orleans	101.71	108.68	-6.98	186.77	196.35	4.38		+8

 

[justanobserver]

To start with we have 3 double negative games, Minn/STL, Phi/Dal, Tenn/NO

I will be betting both the Philly over and the NO over

 

[justanobserver]

Three DPR totals over 185 this week:

Team	Team	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U
San Diego	Chicago	186.04	206	21.32	49.5
N.Y. Giants	Tampa Bay	185.52	204.85	31.6	47.5
Tennessee	New Orleans	186.77	196.35	4.38	No total yet

 

[justanobserver]

Just placed a bet on the Chi/SD over, love that bet

 

[justanobserver]

One thing i have noticed is that teams that are favored by the PRD Diff but are underdogs by the largest margin are 3-0 on the road straight up in the last three weeks. Here are the games:

Week5

Cleveland

98.8

107.3

-8.5

Baltimore

80.44

93.32

-12.88

179.24

200.62

4.38

42.5

+6

63

W, ATSW

Week6

Carolina

88.48

64.09

24.39

Seattle

102.27

93.36

8.91

190.75

157.45

15.48

41

+6.5

50

W,ATSW

Week7

New Orleans

95.98

106.84

-10.86

Indianapolis

81.28

93.9

-12.61

177.26

200.74

1.75

52

+5

48

W, ATSW

This did not hit last week but hit again with Tennessee yesterday, a straight up winner.

Tennessee

85.06

87.67

-2.6

New Orleans

101.71

108.68

-6.98

186.77

196.35

4.38

48

+8

62

W

ATSW

4 of 5 weeks hitting the biggest underdog on the road?

 

[justanobserver]

Three DPR totals over 185 this week:

Team	Team	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U
San Diego	Chicago	186.04	206	21.32	49.5
N.Y. Giants	Tampa Bay	185.52	204.85	31.6	47.5
Tennessee	New Orleans	186.77	196.35	4.38	No total yet

2 for 2 so far with CHI/SD pending tonight

you better believe i am alll over that

 

[justanobserver]

To start with we have 3 double negative games, Minn/STL, Phi/Dal, Tenn/NO

I will be betting both the Philly over and the NO over

2 of 3 this week, for 14 of 18 over the last 5 weeks! Always knew that Minn/STL game was a little fishy even though it was 1 point from being over.

 

[justanobserver]

Just placed a bet on the Chi/SD over, love that bet

Damn, on, felt like there was a ton of points left on the field tonight, oh well still went 2 out of 3

 

[justanobserver]

To recap our totals watch:

Double negatives since week 5, 15 of 19 went over.

DPR total of 185 or higher, 21 of 31 went over.

 

[justanobserver]

Since week 5:

SU: 39-29
ATS: 30-37-1

 

[justanobserver]

Here are this weeks numbers:

Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
Green Bay	108.18	79.04	29.15	Detroit	82.02	111.03	-29.01	190.2	190.07	58.16	47.5	-11.5
Cincinnati	111.03	84.85	26.18	Houston	83.47	95.22	-11.75	194.5	180.07	37.93	47.5	-10.5
New England	113.48	83.11	30.36	N.Y. Giants	96.92	91.96	4.96	210.4	175.07	25.4	54.5	-7
Arizona	107.42	74.05	33.37	Seattle	95.93	81.85	14.08	203.35	155.9	19.29	45	+3
Oakland	102.91	89.12	13.78	Minnesota	82.35	87.69	-5.34	185.26	176.81	19.12		PK
Dallas	88.82	95.26	-6.45	Tampa Bay	84.01	105.65	-21.64	172.83	200.91	15.19	43	+1.5
Carolina	81.35	68.87	12.48	Tennessee	92.25	92.7	-0.45	173.6	161.57	12.93	43.5	-4.5
St. Louis	74.75	84.09	-9.33	Chicago	85.29	101.13	-15.85	160.04	185.22	6.52		-7.5
New Orleans	103.4	111.95	-8.56	Washington	82.64	97.63	-14.99	186.04	209.58	6.43	50.5	-1
Philadelphia	79.52	82.23	-2.71	Miami	89.02	97.12	-8.11	168.54	179.35	5.4	46.5	-6
Jacksonville	83.18	99.91	-16.73	Baltimore	83.09	105.22	-22.13	166.27	205.13	5.4	48	5.5
Pittsburgh	89.93	93.74	-3.81	Cleveland	92.56	98.37	-5.81	182.49	192.11	2	41	-4.5
Buffalo	97.93	85	12.93	N.Y. Jets	89.07	78.04	11.03	187	163.04	1.9	43	+3
Kansas City	92.1	89.4	2.7	Denver	75.55	73.32	2.23	167.65	162.72	0.47	41.5	+6.5