Dow at 17,000. What's more likely to happen first: it drops to 15,000 or continues to 20,000?

[Ricboff]

gentlemen, this thread needs a little love...................................dagone..............

 

[Ricboff]

Disney................

DIS


10 year monthly

the GORGEOUS Vanessa Williams......................dagone..................

 

[Ricboff]

 

[CaptainLee]

I will eat a SHIT sandwich with no bread if the dow hits 20.... no Fukn way... market will correct itself in the coming years

This rally has surprised most people.

 

[Ricboff]

I'm more comfortable looking at fundamental analysis and think it pertains to long-term investing more than tech analysis though. So if you had a correction I think that is what I'd lean on.

And as far as the 4.5%/20% over 90 years, that's one way to look at it. But another way is that over the last 20 years we've had 3 business cycles start and the first 2 ended with the S&P losing 50% and 60% respectively. And both of these downturns were met with considerable fiscal and monetary stimulus or the downturns would've been steeper.

If that happens again, can we keep deficit spending and cutting rates to recovery? I dunno, as far as monetary policy goes we're in pretty uncharted territory here.

So in term of a macro-thesis, is the fed/gov't debt/bond bubble on par with the tech bubble or the housing bubble? You're right, I don't really know where the bottom is but it's definitely a worthy proposition to consider.

gave this more thought.

okay, what fundamental parameters would need to change for you to jump back in?

P/E?


not a fundamentalist, too much noise, but im curious. Do you actually have target values of your chosen fundamental parameters that must be hit before jumping back in?



As an example- p/e of the DOW is 21ish. Historically the average is 17. Using this parameter its 20% overvalued? Do you buy when it gets back to 17? Is 21 really overvalued given silly historical low rates and nearly not existent fixed income? (Actually, people use high dividend yielding stocks FOR INCOME , as its one of the best options out there ...reits as well). Ugh. Just this last quater corp earnings were supposed to be down 1-2%. They actually were UP 4%. With Trump? lower taxes, de-regulate, public spending-- wont that all translate to higher corp profits? This would lower the p/e of the market, no? THEN buy?


Mr Trump is a wild card for damn sure. Who knows............

 

[PatsFan1283]

gave this more thought.

okay, what fundamental parameters would need to change for you to jump back in?

P/E?


not a fundamentalist, too much noise, but im curious. Do you actually have target values of your chosen fundamental parameters that must be hit before jumping back in?



As an example- p/e of the DOW is 21ish. Historically the average is 17. Using this parameter its 20% overvalued? Do you buy when it gets back to 17? Is 21 really overvalued given silly historical low rates and nearly not existent fixed income? (Actually, people use high dividend yielding stocks FOR INCOME , as its one of the best options out there ...reits as well). Ugh. Just this last quater corp earnings were supposed to be down 1-2%. They actually were UP 4%. With Trump? lower taxes, de-regulate, public spending-- wont that all translate to higher corp profits? This would lower the p/e of the market, no? THEN buy?


Mr Trump is a wild card for damn sure. Who knows............

I can't really answer the question of where the market would need to be at for an entry point. Obviously even with P/E you need to look at what the earnings are, EPS boosted through share buyback, is it real growth? is it sustainable? How much bad debt (gov't, corporation, consumer) has been built up in the system through false market signals?

But I would like to see some resolution/clarity on the fed's monetary experiment.

Will Yellen start raising or is today a 1 off like last year? I'll end my post the same way you just ended yours....

Who knows...

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

3 Stocks you don't have to babysit.

 

[PatsFan1283]

want to talk about how 'irrational' markets can become?

i give you the Great White North. Get's rid of its right leaning govt that JUST ran a fantastic surplus. Its market , the TSX TANKED 11% in '15. They send Mr Harper packing for a '15 yr old looking-blue tattooed spender',.........the son of a former Prime Minister . Disaster for the market , no? The TSX is LEADING the G7 in market returns for 2016: OVER 20% ytd!!!!! Keep in mind this is a country with a potential housing crisis (mortgage debt has doubled in a DECADE), highest household debt in country history AND RISING YIELDS over the last month . Less than 2% growth.............See how fundamental analysis can often shit the bed?

Isn't that mostly driven by tons of $ from China buying up property in and around the big Canadian cities? Thus debt exploding among native homebuyers.

I know Vancouver put a foreigner purchase tax on property to curb this but haven't read up on it lately.

NYC talked about doing the same but industry leaders killed it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-plummets-in-vancouver-after-new-property-tax

 

[5teamparlay]

19,885

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

The Federal Reserve raises benchmark interest rate 0.25% as expected.

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

BREAKING: Dow hits all-time high after Fed raises rates for the second time in a decade.

 

[Greenbacks]

Yellen: Colleagues & I are recognizing the considerable progress economy has made to our objectives of maximum employment & price stability.

 

[Greenbacks]

Yellen: "We expect the economy will continue to perform well, with the job market strengthening further."....Trump we$$$we$$$

 

[Ricboff]

to raise rates 3 times in '17? She did say they'd raise rates 4 times in 2016 and we all know how that panned out. However, clearly times are a changing so IT may indeed happen in '17 and we are FINALLY turning the corner on cheap monies?


bond market is telling us that-- 2-yr US Treasuries have hit yet another high, not seen since 2009!!....



asset class that has been the most punished since Nov 8?

athe precious metals. And the carnage continues. Is gold going to throw ALL its yearly gains away?


GLD

ytd daily

clearly 116 was a MUST hold level of support, a break and nothing to hold it.......and we are seeing exactly that pan out. FREE FALL




10 year monthly

clearly 100 is a HUGE support level.......let's see what happens in the short term........

 

[Ricboff]

sorry the first chart is gold, the second is gld (etf)



'clearly 116 was a MUST hold level of support, a break and nothing to hold it.......and we are seeing exactly that pan out. FREE FALL'

my bad, as i thought i was posting the GLD chart for both. This should read ; 'clearly 1230 was a must hold for gold, a break and nothing to hold it.....'

 

[Krawl]

Was watching yesterday and for the past few days. Just trying to learn the DOW and the market. Any reason it started dropping yesterday afternoon after a long uphill run? Just wondering why? I too figured it would continue to rise but yet it did not.

What are your predictions for today?

I know I am a stocks newb just trying to learn...

 

[Ricboff]

the precious metals are fantastic for tech analysis, seem to follow it the best-- the gold chart posted had a LARGE gap in mid Feb as the chart shows--- that was a warning, its been filled (gaps fill 80% of the time, even moreso on major indces and precious metals)..........