Why is it almost impossible? If the Country is as prosperous as it was under Obama, as it was under Clinton, the Stock market will reflect that. If the economy tanks, like it did under W, the stock market will reflect that. There have been instances where a successful market under one POTUS, is built upon by the next POTUS. It may be impossible because the idiot Drumpf fucks up the great market and economy he was handed by Obama, but no other inherent reason.
why do you ask? lookign for a short term play? general curiosity? concern?
i'll fire my 2 cents. Sharing is caring,
. Short term is anyone's guess. Use technical analysis to somewhat guide you. It's hardly bullet proof. BUT useful none the less. Random thoughts of what the market 'should do' is , well, crazy talk. If your horizon is long term (20+ years)? don't waiver. You need not give a shit about daily, monthly, yearly fluctuations .. DO NOT sell if the market tanks. Emotion is the reason why most Do It Yourself investors don't come close to market returns. If youre near retirement, well, whole different ballgame. Of course, if you have zero belief in USA going forward, well, buy farm land in Iowa. May want to get some Gold (NOT paper shit), guns and a lot of ammo....just in case. If you don't like the markets, park your money in another asset, say real estate.
SPY (the S&P 500)
1 year chart. Each candlestick is a day.
draw a horizontal line from the BOTTOM of friday's candlestick- that's the tall red candle, the one to the left of today's. Last Friday was ugly. The markets closed at the low of the day AND on higher volume. AND right at a resistance level- the line you drew hits the bottom of the candlestick from late March. A KEY support, floor if you will. Today's action was surprising - never threatened this support level. That was important. Personally, given Friday's action, felt we would have a red candle and at minimum open lower. NOPE -- higher high and higher low. The rest of the week will be interesting. She is headed to test the 50 MVA (the curve line), IF SHE BREAKS IT AND CLOSES a day above it? we head higher, short term. Keep in mind the MACD is oversold, a break thru the 50 MVA and this could run. Would be bullish if the blue line crosses the red line (MACD). 2370 would be next level of resistance
again, i was surprised with today's action.
historically;
5% corrections - occur approx once year
30% corrections- occur once every 8 yrs or so. Last one 2008..
this line is classic;
It is easy to believe that you are risk tolerant in up market periods, only to discover that you are not so risk tolerant in periods of market correction. Careful consideration of stock price volatility, and construction of an appropriately risk balanced portfolio is important.
if you don't like current fundamentals of the US market, BUT would be a buyer at a lower level?
SELL (write) put options on the SPY. You get a premium (CASH in your account ) for writing the option. If the SPY NEVER hits your level during the time frame you choose? you keep the premium and do not own the spy. IF the SPY hits that level- you keep the premium and MUST buy the SPY at said level. It could be LOWER than that level but you must buy at the said level. You should't care if its lower as you wanted it at the level YOU chose; it's a long term hold
just sayin'
SELL (write) put options on the SPY. You get a premium (CASH in your account ) for writing the option. If the SPY NEVER hits your level during the time frame you choose? you keep the premium and do not own the spy. IF the SPY hits that level- you keep the premium and MUST buy the SPY at said level. It could be LOWER than that level but you must buy at the said level. You should't care if its lower as you wanted it at the level YOU chose; it's a long term hold
just sayin'
one last thing, looking at the SPY chart;
the last 1.5 months or so-- it's forming a wedge; a triangle. The Highs are lower and the Lows are higher---- this can sometimes spell a sharp move , the direction? time will tell
okay , enough horoscope shit for one evening.
They're battling for Lord Stanley.....
the last 1.5 months or so-- it's forming a wedge; a triangle. The Highs are lower and the Lows are higher---- this can sometimes spell a sharp move , the direction? time will tell
okay , enough horoscope shit for one evening.
They're battling for Lord Stanley.....
the noose is officially around Ovie's neck, albeit very very loose.........Caps were up 3-1, whatever happened to that 'loaded' defense ?.....off to game 4.......
............update a chart i posted awhile back, no idea where it is.
[h=1]iShares U.S. Preferred Stock ETF[/h]
PFF
- i dont own THIS product, but do own a very similar product that's on the TSX. In a rising interest rate environment a good option for fixed income seekers is preferred shares. Look at the chart and see it how reacted post election, Nov 2016
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239826/PFF
from the site above, its yielding just under 6% . Taxed efficiency (in taxable accounts...same as in the US?) and again likely to get some capital appreciation, albiet slow as molasses. Up over 5% ytd.
think when i posted it, sometime in early March, it proceeded to gap down. LOL. It's now at a 'moment of truth' ; can she break this headwind of resistance?
.....Caps were up 3-1, whatever happened to that 'loaded' defense ?.....off to game 4...................update a chart i posted awhile back, no idea where it is.
[h=1]iShares U.S. Preferred Stock ETF[/h]
PFF
- i dont own THIS product, but do own a very similar product that's on the TSX. In a rising interest rate environment a good option for fixed income seekers is preferred shares. Look at the chart and see it how reacted post election, Nov 2016
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239826/PFF
from the site above, its yielding just under 6% . Taxed efficiency (in taxable accounts...same as in the US?) and again likely to get some capital appreciation, albiet slow as molasses. Up over 5% ytd.
think when i posted it, sometime in early March, it proceeded to gap down. LOL. It's now at a 'moment of truth' ; can she break this headwind of resistance?
imo , a CRITICAL Trump promise that must come to fruition to sustain and propel the 'Trump market effect' is lowered taxes. Needless to say, the first shot at health care reform by this new administration was, to be polite, not good. Is tax reform goign to be a battle?
i don't agree with this article, will post none the less. I believe the rise in yields and Gold recently is largely geo-political. I will agree with the author that if tax reform is unnecasirly delayed / doesnt measure up /or worse doesnt occur...well.....look out below............
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...-in-the-death-of-trumps-tax-reform-2017-04-19
[h=1]The market is beginning to price in the death of Trump’s tax reform[/h]
Rest in peace tax reform, we hardly knew ya.
The much awaited tax overhaul promised by President Donald Trump may be dead before it even got anywhere.
Shyam Rajan, a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, on Wednesday suggested that the interest rate market is increasingly pricing in the possibility that tax reform will never come to fruition, contrasting with the general belief that Trump is facing a temporary setback in the wake of the failure to repeal and replace Obamacare.
“In our view, a big misunderstanding recently has been the message sent by the rates market vs. the common rhetoric thrown out to explain the decline in rates,” he said in a note to investors.
While most people are focused on a delay in tax reform to after Congress’ summer recess in August, “the rates market is pricing in the death of tax reform and dimming 2018 economic prospects,” said the strategist.
One big clue, according to Rajan, is the following chart of the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), a global benchmark for short-term loans, which shows market participants are projecting a steady decline in rates.
Put another way, the market is betting that the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycle is likely to come to an end in 2018 after two more increases this year.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.72% spiked in the aftermath of Trump’s election on a belief that his pro-growth policies will lead to a rise in debt. It again surged in March when he released his budget proposal that notably boosted defense spending. Since then, however, the yield has corrected lower rather than pushing higher in line with the Fed’s tighter policy stance.
Indeed, Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer for Guggenheim Partners, earlier this week projected that the 10-year yield may sink as low as 1.50% by the summer as Trump faces difficulty implementing his economic-boosting measures on top of lingering geopolitical jitters.
He also noted that optimism over taxes has significantly waned since the election as S&P 500 SPX, -0.17% companies that were most likely to benefit from Trump’s tax cuts have surrendered their recent gains.
Meanwhile, Kevin Giddis, head of fixed-income capital markets at Raymond James, was less dramatic about how far yields could skid even though he likewise expressed concerns about the president taking his “eye of the ball.”
“A lot would have to go wrong for us to slide below 2%,” he told MarketWatch. “Increased geopolitical risk or some preemptive strike would likely be what it would take. Bad economics aren’t likely enough, although 2.15% could happen at any time.”
Worries about the U.S. economy have started to percolate after disappointing March jobs report and subdued retail and auto sales.
Giddis hasn’t decided whether the recent spate of weak data is temporary or the economy has hit a wall. The problem, in his view, is that Trump is distracted by Syria and North Korea and until he buckles down to focus on the domestic agenda, the risk of recession will slowly rise.
The 10-year yield is trading around 2.2% on Wednesday after falling below the key support level of 2.3% last week
..............................
let's keep in mind, Mr Trump WAS claiming getting back to growth rates of 4%. How is that for a pipe dream?......ah those politicians....
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/17/atlanta-and-ny-fed-cut-us-first-quarter-gdp-view-after-weak-data.html
i don't agree with this article, will post none the less. I believe the rise in yields and Gold recently is largely geo-political. I will agree with the author that if tax reform is unnecasirly delayed / doesnt measure up /or worse doesnt occur...well.....look out below............
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...-in-the-death-of-trumps-tax-reform-2017-04-19
[h=1]The market is beginning to price in the death of Trump’s tax reform[/h]
Rest in peace tax reform, we hardly knew ya.
The much awaited tax overhaul promised by President Donald Trump may be dead before it even got anywhere.
Shyam Rajan, a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, on Wednesday suggested that the interest rate market is increasingly pricing in the possibility that tax reform will never come to fruition, contrasting with the general belief that Trump is facing a temporary setback in the wake of the failure to repeal and replace Obamacare.
“In our view, a big misunderstanding recently has been the message sent by the rates market vs. the common rhetoric thrown out to explain the decline in rates,” he said in a note to investors.
While most people are focused on a delay in tax reform to after Congress’ summer recess in August, “the rates market is pricing in the death of tax reform and dimming 2018 economic prospects,” said the strategist.
One big clue, according to Rajan, is the following chart of the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), a global benchmark for short-term loans, which shows market participants are projecting a steady decline in rates.
Put another way, the market is betting that the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycle is likely to come to an end in 2018 after two more increases this year.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.72% spiked in the aftermath of Trump’s election on a belief that his pro-growth policies will lead to a rise in debt. It again surged in March when he released his budget proposal that notably boosted defense spending. Since then, however, the yield has corrected lower rather than pushing higher in line with the Fed’s tighter policy stance.
Indeed, Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer for Guggenheim Partners, earlier this week projected that the 10-year yield may sink as low as 1.50% by the summer as Trump faces difficulty implementing his economic-boosting measures on top of lingering geopolitical jitters.
He also noted that optimism over taxes has significantly waned since the election as S&P 500 SPX, -0.17% companies that were most likely to benefit from Trump’s tax cuts have surrendered their recent gains.
Meanwhile, Kevin Giddis, head of fixed-income capital markets at Raymond James, was less dramatic about how far yields could skid even though he likewise expressed concerns about the president taking his “eye of the ball.”
“A lot would have to go wrong for us to slide below 2%,” he told MarketWatch. “Increased geopolitical risk or some preemptive strike would likely be what it would take. Bad economics aren’t likely enough, although 2.15% could happen at any time.”
Worries about the U.S. economy have started to percolate after disappointing March jobs report and subdued retail and auto sales.
Giddis hasn’t decided whether the recent spate of weak data is temporary or the economy has hit a wall. The problem, in his view, is that Trump is distracted by Syria and North Korea and until he buckles down to focus on the domestic agenda, the risk of recession will slowly rise.
The 10-year yield is trading around 2.2% on Wednesday after falling below the key support level of 2.3% last week
..............................
let's keep in mind, Mr Trump WAS claiming getting back to growth rates of 4%. How is that for a pipe dream?......ah those politicians....
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/17/atlanta-and-ny-fed-cut-us-first-quarter-gdp-view-after-weak-data.html
from the doom and gloomers at zerohedge.......copy and pasting
[h=1]This Has Never Happened Before...[/h]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]With debt ceilings, spending plans, and tax reforms focusing all eyes on Washington, we thought it notable that for the first time in US history, the [/FONT]cost of interest on US government debt has risen above half a trillion dollars[FONT=lucida_granderegular]...
[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]One wonders, given the grandiose spending plans, if we [/FONT]will ever get back below half a trillion dollars?
popcorn-eatinggif
[h=1]This Has Never Happened Before...[/h]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]With debt ceilings, spending plans, and tax reforms focusing all eyes on Washington, we thought it notable that for the first time in US history, the [/FONT]cost of interest on US government debt has risen above half a trillion dollars[FONT=lucida_granderegular]...
[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]One wonders, given the grandiose spending plans, if we [/FONT]will ever get back below half a trillion dollars?
popcorn-eatinggif
damn, Mr Denninger is not in a good mood........
[FONT="]The lies are ridiculous.[/FONT]
[FONT="]"Obamacare" has not been repealed, nor replaced.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Deductibles and premiums will not come down, because exactly nothing has been done to address the underlying cost of medical care, and that is, of course, what drives the cost of "health insurance."[/FONT]
[FONT="]It also probably won't pass the Senate, so that The House has done so is immaterial.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But heh, go ahead and take a victory lap Mr. Trump for something that hasn't passed the Senate yet, and by the way, may I remind you that the Executive, which you head, can cut the cost of medical care by 80% or more in an afternoon.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You simply need to enforce the law, 15 USC specifically, which is your ******ned job and which you took an oath to do -- and have, since your inauguration, serially and intentionally violated every single day since.[/FONT]
[FONT="]There is not one place in this country where a gas station that refused to tell you how much the gas cost until after you pumped it and disclosed who you had your car insurance through, then charged a price that was 1,000% or more different between different people based on their insurance company and the make and model of the car would be in business for more than 30 minutes. If any material percentage of gas stations in a town or region (that's known as "market power") got together and decided to do this sort of thing in concert they would all be under arrest and indicted for conspiring to restrain trade, fix prices and force tied sales, all of which are illegal under laws that have stood for more than 100 years -- all of which you pretend do not exist when it comes to medically-related firms despite not one but two Supreme Court decisions that say otherwise.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You and the rest of the profane thieves in Washington DC, along with the State Houses, Governors and Attorneys General of this nation are thugs and co-conspirators with those who financially******this nation's people on a daily basis.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You deserve spit on your shoes and the middle finger in your face.[/FONT]
[FONT="]So go ahead and make speeches in front of the microphone. I know good and damn well why you won't enforce the law -- if you did the economy would correct in the short term by 15%. Yes, it would rapidly be reallocated to other places but until it did, which would take anywhere from a few months to a couple of years, the GDP decline would be real and none of you crooks can have that -- can you?[/FONT]
[FONT="]Well, enjoy the cheering Mr. President, because the math says that in 4 years you're going to try to blow another $600 billion a year on Medicare and Medicaid because you won't collapse the cost of the medical scams, and that amount will be going up every single year at an exponential rate. The next year it'll be close to $800 billion, and so on. You know damn well you can't finance that and you're not going to get out of office before it blows up in your face, unlike Obama was able to.[/FONT]
<body id="cke_pastebin" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden; left: -1000px;">
[FONT="]The lies are ridiculous.[/FONT]
[FONT="]"Obamacare" has not been repealed, nor replaced.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Deductibles and premiums will not come down, because exactly nothing has been done to address the underlying cost of medical care, and that is, of course, what drives the cost of "health insurance."[/FONT]
[FONT="]It also probably won't pass the Senate, so that The House has done so is immaterial.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But heh, go ahead and take a victory lap Mr. Trump for something that hasn't passed the Senate yet, and by the way, may I remind you that the Executive, which you head, can cut the cost of medical care by 80% or more in an afternoon.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You simply need to enforce the law, 15 USC specifically, which is your ******ned job and which you took an oath to do -- and have, since your inauguration, serially and intentionally violated every single day since.[/FONT]
[FONT="]There is not one place in this country where a gas station that refused to tell you how much the gas cost until after you pumped it and disclosed who you had your car insurance through, then charged a price that was 1,000% or more different between different people based on their insurance company and the make and model of the car would be in business for more than 30 minutes. If any material percentage of gas stations in a town or region (that's known as "market power") got together and decided to do this sort of thing in concert they would all be under arrest and indicted for conspiring to restrain trade, fix prices and force tied sales, all of which are illegal under laws that have stood for more than 100 years -- all of which you pretend do not exist when it comes to medically-related firms despite not one but two Supreme Court decisions that say otherwise.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You and the rest of the profane thieves in Washington DC, along with the State Houses, Governors and Attorneys General of this nation are thugs and co-conspirators with those who financially******this nation's people on a daily basis.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You deserve spit on your shoes and the middle finger in your face.[/FONT]
[FONT="]So go ahead and make speeches in front of the microphone. I know good and damn well why you won't enforce the law -- if you did the economy would correct in the short term by 15%. Yes, it would rapidly be reallocated to other places but until it did, which would take anywhere from a few months to a couple of years, the GDP decline would be real and none of you crooks can have that -- can you?[/FONT]
[FONT="]Well, enjoy the cheering Mr. President, because the math says that in 4 years you're going to try to blow another $600 billion a year on Medicare and Medicaid because you won't collapse the cost of the medical scams, and that amount will be going up every single year at an exponential rate. The next year it'll be close to $800 billion, and so on. You know damn well you can't finance that and you're not going to get out of office before it blows up in your face, unlike Obama was able to.[/FONT]
</body>
[FONT="]"Obamacare" has not been repealed, nor replaced.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Deductibles and premiums will not come down, because exactly nothing has been done to address the underlying cost of medical care, and that is, of course, what drives the cost of "health insurance."[/FONT]
[FONT="]It also probably won't pass the Senate, so that The House has done so is immaterial.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But heh, go ahead and take a victory lap Mr. Trump for something that hasn't passed the Senate yet, and by the way, may I remind you that the Executive, which you head, can cut the cost of medical care by 80% or more in an afternoon.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You simply need to enforce the law, 15 USC specifically, which is your ******ned job and which you took an oath to do -- and have, since your inauguration, serially and intentionally violated every single day since.[/FONT]
[FONT="]There is not one place in this country where a gas station that refused to tell you how much the gas cost until after you pumped it and disclosed who you had your car insurance through, then charged a price that was 1,000% or more different between different people based on their insurance company and the make and model of the car would be in business for more than 30 minutes. If any material percentage of gas stations in a town or region (that's known as "market power") got together and decided to do this sort of thing in concert they would all be under arrest and indicted for conspiring to restrain trade, fix prices and force tied sales, all of which are illegal under laws that have stood for more than 100 years -- all of which you pretend do not exist when it comes to medically-related firms despite not one but two Supreme Court decisions that say otherwise.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You and the rest of the profane thieves in Washington DC, along with the State Houses, Governors and Attorneys General of this nation are thugs and co-conspirators with those who financially******this nation's people on a daily basis.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You deserve spit on your shoes and the middle finger in your face.[/FONT]
[FONT="]So go ahead and make speeches in front of the microphone. I know good and damn well why you won't enforce the law -- if you did the economy would correct in the short term by 15%. Yes, it would rapidly be reallocated to other places but until it did, which would take anywhere from a few months to a couple of years, the GDP decline would be real and none of you crooks can have that -- can you?[/FONT]
[FONT="]Well, enjoy the cheering Mr. President, because the math says that in 4 years you're going to try to blow another $600 billion a year on Medicare and Medicaid because you won't collapse the cost of the medical scams, and that amount will be going up every single year at an exponential rate. The next year it'll be close to $800 billion, and so on. You know damn well you can't finance that and you're not going to get out of office before it blows up in your face, unlike Obama was able to.[/FONT]
<body id="cke_pastebin" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden; left: -1000px;">
[FONT="]"Obamacare" has not been repealed, nor replaced.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Deductibles and premiums will not come down, because exactly nothing has been done to address the underlying cost of medical care, and that is, of course, what drives the cost of "health insurance."[/FONT]
[FONT="]It also probably won't pass the Senate, so that The House has done so is immaterial.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But heh, go ahead and take a victory lap Mr. Trump for something that hasn't passed the Senate yet, and by the way, may I remind you that the Executive, which you head, can cut the cost of medical care by 80% or more in an afternoon.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You simply need to enforce the law, 15 USC specifically, which is your ******ned job and which you took an oath to do -- and have, since your inauguration, serially and intentionally violated every single day since.[/FONT]
[FONT="]There is not one place in this country where a gas station that refused to tell you how much the gas cost until after you pumped it and disclosed who you had your car insurance through, then charged a price that was 1,000% or more different between different people based on their insurance company and the make and model of the car would be in business for more than 30 minutes. If any material percentage of gas stations in a town or region (that's known as "market power") got together and decided to do this sort of thing in concert they would all be under arrest and indicted for conspiring to restrain trade, fix prices and force tied sales, all of which are illegal under laws that have stood for more than 100 years -- all of which you pretend do not exist when it comes to medically-related firms despite not one but two Supreme Court decisions that say otherwise.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You and the rest of the profane thieves in Washington DC, along with the State Houses, Governors and Attorneys General of this nation are thugs and co-conspirators with those who financially******this nation's people on a daily basis.[/FONT]
[FONT="]You deserve spit on your shoes and the middle finger in your face.[/FONT]
[FONT="]So go ahead and make speeches in front of the microphone. I know good and damn well why you won't enforce the law -- if you did the economy would correct in the short term by 15%. Yes, it would rapidly be reallocated to other places but until it did, which would take anywhere from a few months to a couple of years, the GDP decline would be real and none of you crooks can have that -- can you?[/FONT]
[FONT="]Well, enjoy the cheering Mr. President, because the math says that in 4 years you're going to try to blow another $600 billion a year on Medicare and Medicaid because you won't collapse the cost of the medical scams, and that amount will be going up every single year at an exponential rate. The next year it'll be close to $800 billion, and so on. You know damn well you can't finance that and you're not going to get out of office before it blows up in your face, unlike Obama was able to.[/FONT]
</body>
