what the hell is going on with Natural Gas? An absurdly volatile commodity , its running since Mr Trump won-- actually a 35% run, wtf
UNG
3 month daily
today's candlestick is bearish engulfing pattern on HIGH volume. High probability it pulls back , cools off.
2 year weekly
a break through $10 and look out , $13 could be had
:toast:
many folks think technical analysis is horoscope shit. Fine. When you load data heavily into your side you dramatically increase the probability of success. Money management is first and foremost, no exceptions . EGO is a big killer in short term trading...that's why women, in general, make for better traders.
had a bit of a head fake on this one, but it panned thru..........dagone.....natty gas is INSANELY volatile....chart has gaps all over the fuckin' place, lol
Rode the upswing pretty good but sold in August 2015 at around S&P 2000ish.
Including dividends it has run another 15%.
So I'm kindof an idiot but we'll see what happens.
Not inclined to get back in but Lockheed/Boeing are good plays right now. I think we'll see humans fly before we see those companies lose their contracts.
Including dividends it has run another 15%.
So I'm kindof an idiot but we'll see what happens.
Not inclined to get back in but Lockheed/Boeing are good plays right now. I think we'll see humans fly before we see those companies lose their contracts.
Closing Bell.....December 13,2016
Another Record.....Trump we$$$we$$$
well, if you're looking for an entry point...
SPY
3 month daily
LARGE gap between 208 and 211-- with major indices, gaps tend to get filled. Not saying it will, just sayin'--that gap is disturbing. I would be a buyer at 208, partially, for damn sure........personally, don't think one should ever be out of the market-that's the epitome of ego. BUT, do what makes us sleep at night, value in that. Personally, im in a substantial cash position. I don't see myself as an 'idiot' for this, rather.. more comfortable
SPY
3 month daily
LARGE gap between 208 and 211-- with major indices, gaps tend to get filled. Not saying it will, just sayin'--that gap is disturbing. I would be a buyer at 208, partially, for damn sure........personally, don't think one should ever be out of the market-that's the epitome of ego. BUT, do what makes us sleep at night, value in that. Personally, im in a substantial cash position. I don't see myself as an 'idiot' for this, rather.. more comfortable
if we are going to predict going forward should we not use historical data? Or does one's beliefs trump that? 'no way that's bullshit, it's different now...!!!!!!!!!!!! '?
over the last 90 years the market has lost 20% or more 4.5 % of the time.
SPY is at 227
20% correction puts you at 181. Ask yourself this...would you buy then? OR would you be even MORE scared and wait for it fall further?.......psychology is neat
over the last 90 years the market has lost 20% or more 4.5 % of the time.
SPY is at 227
20% correction puts you at 181. Ask yourself this...would you buy then? OR would you be even MORE scared and wait for it fall further?.......psychology is neat
There is a lot of historical data that says we're way overbought based on fundamentals. P/E, CAPE, gutting fixed income just to get these valuations, etc
We'll see what happens. If you come with a few trillion in deficit spending then you can probably keep the party going I'm sure. Tough to say.
That's the thing about bubbles, they can go on a lot longer than people think. Just because something is overbought doesn't mean it can't get more overbought.
One of the smartest things I've heard lately is that the wisdom of crowds only has value if the crowds form their opinion independently. When you get groupthink where everyone is optimistic or thinks 1 thing is going to happen, sometimes that opinion is not as strong as it appears because everyone is just reinforcing for one another.
'One of the smartest things I've heard lately is that the wisdom of crowds only has value if the crowds form their opinion independently'
lol. Then use tech analysis for an entry point . As it sounds like you're looking for confirmation of opinion. NO ONE knows where the bottom is..
....the last year has shown you this. Take ego away
lol. Then use tech analysis for an entry point . As it sounds like you're looking for confirmation of opinion. NO ONE knows where the bottom is..
....the last year has shown you this. Take ego away'One of the smartest things I've heard lately is that the wisdom of crowds only has value if the crowds form their opinion independently'
lol. Then use tech analysis for an entry point . As it sounds like you're looking for confirmation of opinion. NO ONE knows where the bottom is..
I'm more comfortable looking at fundamental analysis and think it pertains to long-term investing more than tech analysis though. So if you had a correction I think that is what I'd lean on.
And as far as the 4.5%/20% over 90 years, that's one way to look at it. But another way is that over the last 20 years we've had 3 business cycles start and the first 2 ended with the S&P losing 50% and 60% respectively. And both of these downturns were met with considerable fiscal and monetary stimulus or the downturns would've been steeper.
If that happens again, can we keep deficit spending and cutting rates to recovery? I dunno, as far as monetary policy goes we're in pretty uncharted territory here.
So in term of a macro-thesis, is the fed/gov't debt/bond bubble on par with the tech bubble or the housing bubble? You're right, I don't really know where the bottom is but it's definitely a worthy proposition to consider.
I agree letting inflation erode cash isn't ideal obviously but sometimes you just have to go with your opinions. Sure some days you are thinking you need the straight jacket but what can you do?
And I'm not completely out, I have a handful of tech stocks. Call it a hedge incase the drop never comes.
What do you think about the current valuations?
valuations? don't be silly. OPINION!!!!!!!!!! Stay in the game. Have cash on the sidelines. Have my money in the game,but has to EARN me money-- dividends/interest. Note, I HAVE BEEN WRONG all along, as im a gross fiscal conservative - as you know these fuckers have tossed us to the woodshed. BUT, have had a % in the market in case i'm wrong. They adapt, kick the can............ have forgiven my ideologies ....
15-20 years ago, man use to be to give a local bank monies in promise of security AND ROI of 5%+? Now? LOL, the common folk have no place to park monies. heck, they battle to meet mortgage payments, banks provide less than 1% in savings..bond yields similar. Fixed income? fuck off, roll the dice in the market to beat inflation
how sick has N America become? FUCKIN HATE having a pessimistic view .........slowly kills..........
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/cd-rates-history-0112.aspx
how sick has N America become? FUCKIN HATE having a pessimistic view .........slowly kills..........
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/cd-rates-history-0112.aspx
want to talk about how 'irrational' markets can become?
i give you the Great White North. Get's rid of its right leaning govt that JUST ran a fantastic surplus. Its market , the TSX TANKED 11% in '15. They send Mr Harper packing for a '15 yr old looking-blue tattooed spender',.........the son of a former Prime Minister . Disaster for the market , no? The TSX is LEADING the G7 in market returns for 2016: OVER 20% ytd!!!!! Keep in mind this is a country with a potential housing crisis (mortgage debt has doubled in a DECADE), highest household debt in country history AND RISING YIELDS over the last month . Less than 2% growth.............See how fundamental analysis can often shit the bed?
i give you the Great White North. Get's rid of its right leaning govt that JUST ran a fantastic surplus. Its market , the TSX TANKED 11% in '15. They send Mr Harper packing for a '15 yr old looking-blue tattooed spender',.........the son of a former Prime Minister . Disaster for the market , no? The TSX is LEADING the G7 in market returns for 2016: OVER 20% ytd!!!!! Keep in mind this is a country with a potential housing crisis (mortgage debt has doubled in a DECADE), highest household debt in country history AND RISING YIELDS over the last month . Less than 2% growth.............See how fundamental analysis can often shit the bed?
Rumor has it......Very possible it hits 20,000 on Wednesday.....Stay tuned we$$$we$$$
I heard it through the Grapevine Shush()*:nohead:
I heard it through the Grapevine Shush()*:nohead:
