Dial Square's 2012-13 Thread

[DialSquares]

Overall: 30-27-2 +1.15 units
August: 25-20-1 +4.85 units

Saturday August 19th
English Premier Leauge
Man City vs Southampton
over 3 goals -117 - 1.17 to win 1 unit
interesting stat (at least in my head). City vs a newly promoted team at home have played 11 out of 12 matches with at least 3 goals. 2011-12 v QPR 3-2, v Swansea 4-0 and v Norwich 5-1. 2010-11 v Newcastle 2-1, v WBA 4-0 and v Blackpool 1-0. 2009-10 v Burnley 3-0, v Wolves 4-1, v and Birminham 5-1. 2008-09 v WBA 4-2, v Stoke 3-0, and v Hull 5-1. So only 1-0 win vs Blackpool had less then 3 goals and 8 out of 12 had 4+ goals. You could note that City have won 9 of the 12 by 2+ so City -2 might be a good option. I think Southampton will struggle of course tomorrow but they certainly scored a ton of goals in the Championship last season. It might be tough for them but i do think City could conceed those late 70-90th min goal in a 3-0 type game. Certainly Man City can always get the 3+ on their own - they were scoring at will in the friendlies once they got it together and won 3-2 vs Chelski in the community shield. Jay Rodriguez and Steven Davis are two nice signings that should help Southampton along the way - perhaps not Sunday but for the year. To me City 3-0 4-0 but hopefully Southampton can score. 7 of the 12 newly promoted sides did manage to score in Manchester - certainly they have improved year after year but last season we did see city conceed while winning (Norwich, Sunderland, QPR, Wolves, Villa etc...all scored)

German Cup
Worms v Hertha Berling
Hertha -1 +100 - 1.00 to win 1 unit
well hertha not starting off very well in the Bundesliga II drawing Paderborn and losing to FSV Frankfurt. It is interesting to see that they always draw a Regionalliga road match in their first round of the cup. They have won 7 straight 1st round matches and actually make decent runs in the cup over the years. 3 of the 7 required extras but just once in the last 5. Last two years in the cup Hertha beat Regionalliga North Meuselwitz 4-0 and Regionalliga South Pfullendorf 2-0 and four years ago beat Regionalliga West Trier 3-1. Hertha has been bouncing up to I down to II for a few years so i don't think that effects them in the cup. Worms did hold Furth to a 90 min draw a few years back but not a big history in the cup. Only other match since 2005-06 I saw was 1-5 lost to Mainz. Worms with two draws to start there Regionalliga Southwest campaign including a team that finished dead last in the Regionalliga South last season. According to Hertha's website lineup: Sprint - Ndjeng, Franz, Brooks, Schulz - Kluge, Niemeyer, Knoll, Ramos - Allagui, Kachunga. Pretty strong.

Saarbrucken v Schalke
over 3 goals -119 - 1.19 to win 1 unit
schalke's 1st round cup match have been overs every year since 2005-06 with a few games with 9+ goals. (I don't expect 11-1 like last year vs Teningen). The did play a 3rd liga side (like Saarbrucken) Aalen and won 2-1 two years ago. Saarbrucken 3 straight overs in the league play and 12 overs in 19 home matches. Certainly against a top 3 Bundesliga I side it might be tougher to score but Schalke could easily get all 4 goals needed to win the bet. Other then the game vs Magdeburg, Schalke struggled to score in the friendlies...but the last two matches against italy teams they usually make it hard to score. I do love when managers call out their players ahead of a cup match - Huntelaar, raul and Papadopoulos all scored last year and Farfan scored 2 two years ago so it looks like top players do play round one. I didn't find a starting lineup. Schalke with a legitimate chance of winning this cup and manager ready to take it seriously and Saarbrucken able to score one. Looks like a 4+ goal match to me.
---
going to keep looking at German Cup when i get back but those three for sure. Some late goals Saturday helped my cup record to 3-1 this year.

 

[DialSquares]

adding:

German Cup
Aue v Eintracht Frankfurt
E Frankfurt -0.75 -111 -1.11 to win 1 unit
no question staying in the bundesliga will be priority #1 for Eintracht but they have a great first round record and beat aue over the years. While both clubs were in the II Bundesliga E Frankfurt won 1-2 on the road and 4-0 at home. If 2004-05 matters in four matches h2h2 e Frankfurt won 4 matches outscoring Aue 13-1. E Frankfurt finished 33 points and 13 places ahead of aue last season. In the build up friendlies E Frankfurt have played a lot and have been amazing - 5 friendlies and 5 wins including a 4-2 win vs Valencia. New signing and Canadian Occean managed two goals vs Valencia and should be a big boost for e frankfurt. In the last couple of 1st rounds E Frankfurt were playing Regionalliga sides ..2-0 4-0 but they beat 3rd liga Offenbach 3-0 and beat Union Berlin 4-1 5 years ago. So last 5 1st round matches - all road games - 2-0 4-0 3-0 3-0 4-1....solid record. Aue do play a lot of 1st round extra time and beat 3rd liga Saarbrucken last year and st pauli 3 years ago. Since both clubs were both in the Bundesliga II last season it really isn't a typical 3rd liga v I game and the fans would love a win but i love the new signings, 1st round cup result and a great friendly from E. frankfurt.

Preussen Munster v Werder Bremen
over 3 goals +100 - 1.00 to win 1 unit
the last few first round matches for Bremen 1-2, 4-0, 5-0, and 9-3. In the friendlies Bremen back to their usual goalfest ways playing 6 straight overs. Munster three straight overs in the 3rd liga and although i know friendlies aren't very important played a 2-4 game vs Dortmund. Prussen are talking up this match and will have a sold out crowd and some calling it 'game of the year' Hopefully that can inspire the home side to score but in the end it will be very tough match. Bremen usually have a good cup run despite losing last year in the first round. A lot of addition to Bremen and some talk about returning to europe for next year. Torn between the total and the -1 line which was pretty much the same odds. Went with the total because i think Munster scores at least one because they will be pumped and werder is still pretty poor in defense.

 

[DialSquares]

penalties are ruining my day today ... worms and aue both convert early penalities and good ol' Man Citeh don't covert on theirs. If Bremen can score a late goal it will save the day a bit but one of those Pk/red card days for me.

 

[DialSquares]

2012-13 Record
Overall: 33-29-2 +2.04 units
August: 28-22-1 +5.74 units

Monday August 20th
Finland Veikkkausliiga
MyPa v Mariehamn
under 2.5 goals -118 - 1.18 to win 1 unit
Mariehamn's road record does worry more a bit about this bet - in 10 matches on the road just 4 unders for Mariehamn. The majority of overs have come against teams like Inter, Jyvaskyla, Honka etc...most that are over friendly. They did play a road over against Jaro that have only played 3 unders in 11 home matches. MyPa with 6 unders in 9 home matches and 14 unders in 21 total matches. MyPa's 3 overs came against Inter, Lahti and Haka which are the 2nd, 3rd and 4th most over friendly clubs in Finland. H2H with MyPa at home just 3 overs in 8 matches. The match in Mariehamn in June ended 0-0..I think Mariehamn would like a draw to stay ahead of HJK ahead of their match next round. Maybe 1-1 but another 0-0 wouldn't surprise me.

looking at german cup and others right now but kickoff is aboot an hour away so posting 1 for now. 0-2 in my last 2 unders

 

[DialSquares]

German Cup
Chemitzer v Dresden
over 2, 2.5 -124 - 1.24 to win 1 unit
Dresden is a good road over in league and hopefully can carry over to the cup. Chemitzer a bit surprising to be favoured as they are just a mid level 3rd liga team. 2 overs in 4 matches in the 3rd liga. Interesting 15 over 1.5 goals in 19 home matches last season in the 3rd liga. Dresden played 10 road overs in 17 matches last year in II and 15 over 1.5 in 17 matches. Dresden played a 3-3 first round match last season in the cup vs Levenkausen. Dresden two overs in two II matches and (for what it is worth) 4 overs in 6 friendlies. (somehow 0-0 vs Man City). I know league and friendlies don't mean a ton for cup and odds set at the 2.25 line is a wonder but 3rd liga home vs II do produce overs. 1-2 dresden in the end but certainly 2 goals possible so i wouldn't bet the over 2.5.

Sandhausen v Cottbus
draw +240 - 0.41 to win 1 unit
surprisingly low number of draws in the 1st round so far. I don't bet draws often and usually very little reason for it. Over the years Cottbus certainly has played their share of 1st round draws. Both clubs play in the German Bundelisa II and Sandhausen 2 draws in 2 matches and Cottbus 1 match in 2. Cottbus finished II last year right near the bottom in 14th while Sandhausen was promoted from 3rd liga so not a lot different. I hate justifying draws because it is hard but I think decent chance here.

i also think RW Essen +0.5 is a strong play but perhaps Union Berlin with a bit of revenge on their minds as Essen beat them in extras last year in the cup.

---
no thoughts on Man utd right now and going to see how the early matches go...GL

 

[DialSquares]

well i'd hate to go against some punters here but i see goals in the utd game. 8 of the last 11 1st round matches for everton have been overs. 4 of the last 6 H2H have been overs and Man Utd certainly with a strong offensive lineup. Very much looking forward to watching Kagawa and RVP coming off the bench will no doubt give them a boost. Man Utd i think will have quesitons in defense today and everton with quality...Man Utd probably knick it maybe in the 5th min of stoppage time ... no score today really would surprise me but 1-2 looks about right to me.

English Premier League
Everton v Man United
over 2.5 -106 - 1.06 to win 1 unit

 

[DialSquares]

2012-13 Record
Overall: 34-32-2 +0.39 units
August: 29-25-1 +4.09 units

still trying to build a nice run for the year....
Monday August 21st
UEFA Champions Leauge Qualifiers
Spartak Moscov v Fenerbahce
over 2, 2.5 -133 - 1.33 to win 1 unit
i would take the over 2.5 if the 2.25 isn't available or if the odds are -150ish. But 1-1 wouldn't really surprise me hear and certainly a result Fener would love. No question Spartak have started their 12-13 campaign flying and with plenty of overs. Spartak 4-1 so far and all five matches overs - they should be riding high with a 2-1 win over Rubin and road win vs Dinamo (what happened to Dinamo???). Fenerbahce drew their first match against a promoted side 1-1 but with CL on the horizon not a bad result. I really like some of the additions to Fener including Kuyt, Mehmet Topal and Krasic. Fener certainly have the ability to score today against Spartak that have 1 clean sheet in 5 Russian matches. (Volga and promotional Alaniya both scored.) It is very hard to play in Turkey and Spartak will be looking for a 2+ lead heading into the second leg. I could see a 3-1 scoreline but i do think 2-1 would be okay for both sides. 1-1 2-1....

 

[varkeyboy]

Booooom! Congrats on the OVER.

 

[DialSquares]

thanks varkey - 0-0 HT I was just hoping for the 1/2 loser. adding:

UEFA CL:
Borussia Monchengladbach v Dinamo Kiev
Borussia Monchengladbach Team Total over 1 -134 - 1.34 to win 1 unit
over 2 is a nice bet too...i fear a 1-0 home win so taking the TT but i know that's not always available.

England Championship
Blackpool v Leeds
over 2.5, 3.0 -101 - 1.01 to win 1 unit

Peterborough United v Millwall
over 2.5 goals -110 - 1.10 to win 1 unit

guess it is cheer for goals this week...i will say playing midweek England games in round 2 isn't very wise. Kinda why i am staying away from sides.

sorry no writeup but kickoff less than an hour and too much to do until then

 

[varkeyboy]

On 5dimes....I only have Borussia TT OVER 0.5 (-277)........that means its an automatic winner if they score 1 goal
Is it worth the risk??

 

[DialSquares]

i don't bet any odds higher than -150 ... i wouldn't personally take it. You need to win 3 for every 1 you lose and that costs you in the long run. I'd move to Canada so you can open a pinnacle account...haha....

 

[varkeyboy]

i don't bet any odds higher than -150 ... i wouldn't personally take it. You need to win 3 for every 1 you lose and that costs you in the long run. I'd move to Canada so you can open a pinnacle account...haha....

OK I'll just lay off it. Thanks for your advice. I've been to Mississauga a couple of times. I LOVE partying in Toronto! One of my all time favorite cities in the world.

 

[DialSquares]

i'm about 8 hour drive north of mississauga...i don't recommend coming here unless you like fishing and hunting but i do like toronto and usually go for team canada WC disapointments....i guess taking borussia 0.5 would have been a quick winner.....in the long run i think it is still safe to keep odds as close to even as you can. Hitting 58-62% of picks is amazing but in soccer can actually make you about even. Might as well get 1 more early.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Dial let me know if you will be in Toronto on Sept 7 for Canada vs Panama.

I can't say what my position is with FIFA over the net but I will get you and a buddy in for free. I will be there field level.

My pleasure.

I believe it's gate 4 where they let the pass holders in on the west side of the stadium we can meet there.

But PM me and I will give you my number, give me a ring and you're in.

 

[DialSquares]

damn took the wrong bet in the borussia match...45 mins to just be the extra juice i had to wager on.

RVP left Arsenal because 'the little boy' inside him told him to go and Song went to Barca because his kids are big fans of Messi.....at least Cesc left for his boyhood team and home town. All 4 left (Nasri) because of money - arsenal won't give them the overbloated salaries they think they are worth....if we do sign m'villa along with Arteta, Ramsay, Cazorla and Walcott there wasn't room for song. (or arshavin Arsene....sell him.....)

 

[DialSquares]

aruk - i have the silly idea that Canada will make it to the final group stage of the WC so i'm risking missing the Panama match in hopes to see us play the USA or Mexico...i'm moving 4 hours closer Oct 1st so i might go to cuba match if it still looks like we can qualify. I wish i could go but until i do move it is near impossible for me to leave right now. But thank you very much for the offer..i would have loved it. I imagine for USA or Mexico it might be harder to get in but if that offers stands (and we qualify) let me know.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

aruk - i have the silly idea that Canada will make it to the final group stage of the WC so i'm risking missing the Panama match in hopes to see us play the USA or Mexico...i'm moving 4 hours closer Oct 1st so i might go to cuba match if it still looks like we can qualify. I wish i could go but until i do move it is near impossible for me to leave right now. But thank you very much for the offer..i would have loved it. I imagine for USA or Mexico it might be harder to get in but if that offers stands (and we qualify) let me know.

No problem. The offer stands. Panama is a solid team this year and this will be a tough match for Canada.

Canada should beat Cuba at home. The field in Cuba wasn't worthy of a cow pasture and they still won 1-0. The Cubans asked that the game be held at mid day so the heat could be a factor. Sneaky. Well if Canada gets their way it will be snowing in October for the return match. LOL.

If they beat Panama they will likely advance and you'll get your wish.

 

[DialSquares]

yeah - i watch that match and it was brutal...drawing hondurus at home wasn't so bad but definitely the next two matches will determine Canada's chances. But i will definitely take you up on the offer if we qualify....thanks

 

[varkeyboy]

Thank you for an additional +2.00 UNITS on both England Championship games!!! +10.00 units in the last 16 hours is pretty damn nice. I'll take that any day of the week.

Congrat on a TUESDAY SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP!

 

[DialSquares]

could have been better with borussia scoring so early and the line dropping to the 2.5 in the blackpool match by kickoff but no complaints. After monday nice to get it all back in one shot. Hopefully I don't just give it back today....i feel like I am playing no limit poker this week. But thanks agian Varkey...i think when 3-4 guys on this board agree on a pick we are going to have a great record....too bad we don't all live in Vegas and can sit around a casino capping games..haha...

Wednesday August 22nd
UEFA Champions League
Malaga v Panathinaikos
Malaga -0.5, -1.0 -120 -1.20 to win 1 unit
Malaga and its fans should be pretty pumped for their first European match since 2002-03 (although that didn't work for Borussia Mgladbach yesterday). Panathinkaikos last year lost 3-0 on the road to Tel-Aviv and two years ago lost to Copehagen, Barcelona in the group stages of the CL and a 0-0 draw to Rubin Kazan. Sparta Prague and Atletico Madrid beat them 1-3 and 0-2 in 09-10 CL. Always a tough European team to crack but have been struggling away from home. In fact the 2009 match vs A. Madrid, Panath. was the same final qualifier to advance to group stages and A Madrid won 2-0 and 3-2 in Athens. And for what it is worth Sevilla knocked out AEK Athens in this round years ago with a 2-0 home win. Malaga lost players and have no real Euroean experience and are playing against a side with tons of it...sounds very much like Borussia Mgladbach v Fenerbahce yesterday. So no doubt this isn't a slam dunk but Spain sides have faired well in this round of qualifying and I think crowd should be on their side today. Perhaps a 1/2 winner as Panath would take a 1-0 deficit back home..to me 2-0 though.

AEL Limassol v Anderlecht
Anderlecht pk -126 - 1.26 to win 1 unit
I don't think AEL will make the same run as APOEL. Andrelecht will certainly take a draw here but I don't see them losing outright. Right now Anderlecht are playing great football beating teams in Beligum and Europe winning 6 straight non-friendly matches including the Super Cup and both game vs Ekranas. Certainly a tougher match today but unlike APOEL, AEL with very little European experiences. They have advance two rounds this year beating Linfield and Partizan....not unexpected really. Prior to that they got bounced out of UEFA cup in 2002-03 and before that in the 1989-90s. Anderlecht with tons of Europe experience making it pass the group stages of EUROPA three years in a row. Last year they won all 3 group stage road matches in EUROPA and the qualifier vs Bursaspor. It's just those Dutch sides they cannot beat it seems. They have not made group stages in the CL in awhile so another match that is no slam dunk but Anderlecht match fit, solid start to the year, and the new manager seems to have a very positive influence. In the end i could see a draw but this could also go much like the Fenerbahce match yesterday.

Sweden Superettan
Degerfors v Assyriska FF
over 3 goals -102 - 1.02 to win 1 unit
hard to pass on this one. In 9 home matches 8 overs for Degerfors and for Assyriska 7 overs in 9 road matches. H2H in Degerfors 2 overs in 3 matches with the lone under being 1-1. Deger. have played 8 overs in their last 10 league matches with plenty of 4+ games. I do wish Assyriska recent matches were overs but that's about the only reason not to bet it....Assyriska with just 4 overs in their last 9 but 6 matches were at home. Perhaps scoring 7 in the cup will carry over today but against a 2nd divison south side maybe not.

Gl today

ps i was leaning pretty heavy on Stuttgart -1 in europa but i try not to bet that cup unless i love something. (1-2 this year). I think Chelsea -1.5 is quite possible but too early to be taking -1.5s imo and chelsea seems to win by 1 a lot. (3 matches won by 2+ in 15 EPL matches by my count.