Dial Square's 2012-13 Thread

[DialSquares]

Tuesday August 7th
German 3 liga
RW Erfurt v VfB Stuttgart II
over 2, 2.5 goals -124 - 1.24 to win 1 unit
Erfurt 3 over 2.5 goals in 3 matches - stuttgart ii just one over but one game 2-0. Erfurt 0-3 to start the year but two road games and one home match vs a promotional candidate. So Erfurt really should win but conceeding 10 goals in 3 matches clear defensive woes. Stuttgart scored 5 times in 3 matches. H2H in Erfurt two straight overs. I think classic 2-1 match with potential of a lot more.

Unterhaching vs. Heidenheim
draw +240 - 0.41 to win 1 unit
both sides starting the season very well...in 3 matches both clubs two wins and a draw. Two straight draws H2H. Draws are guesswork so hard to give realiable stats but enough there for me to take a draw.

 

[DialSquares]

Overall Record 11-12-1 -2.85 units
August: 6-5-0 0.85 unit

i should be adding a game or two today....

 

[DialSquares]

adding brazil to beat south korea in olympics

Men's Olympics
Brazil v South Korea
Brazil -1 -105 - 1.05 to win 1 unit

a little busy today so no reasoning on this one (although i have them)...so like most people here i'll just post like i threw a dart and came up brazil -1.

 

[DialSquares]

Wednesday August 8th
UEFA Champions Leauge
Helsingborg v Slask Wroclaw
Helsingborg -0.75 -120 -1.20 to win 1 unit
tough to back a side up 3-0 after the first leg because even a 2-0 lost would see them advance. But Helsingborg pretty dominate and now at home. Long trip for a Polish side who really can't have much hope in overturning the tie. Slask yet to play a league match while Helsingborg in the middle of theirs which probably played a factor in the first match. Slask play in 4 days in the Poland Super Cup and perhaps will be concentrating on that match and give their fans something to cheer about early in the new season. I could see a draw as helsingborg could try and put a less energetic effort and concentrate on kalmar.

Ekranas Panevezys v Andrelecht
Ekranas Panevezys +1.5 -103 - 1.03 to win 1 unit
Andrelecht 5-0 after the 1st leg and might give Ekranas a bit of a break in front of their home country. Andrelecht have a tough match on the road vs Cercle Brugge on the weekend so perhaps that match along with a long trip to Lithuania, Andrelecht might just play out the game. Ekranas 9 wins a draw in 10 home league matches - vs other Lithuanian sides maybe not such a big deal but vs Europe teams pretty decent home results. They managed a 1-0 first leg win vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv and 0-0 vs BATE last year. They did beat Shamrocks at home too but again not a big deal. To me this will be a draw or 1 goal road win but i don't see andrelecht winning by 2+

Slovan Liberec v Cluj
over 2 goals -144 - 1.44 to win 1 unit
slovan need to score which might open this one up a bit. Both clubs coming off matches were they both scored 3 goals. It well be very hard for Cluj to keep Slovan off the board...the only question for me is a 1-0 win would mean extras so perhaps both sides won't press if Slovan scores early. To me Cluj can certainly score and could open this wide open...1-2 road win and cluj advances.
----

 

[DialSquares]

I was tempted to bank Japan to score but at -167 a little too high so hopefully usa can score one in a 3-1 loss.............so

Thursday August 9th
Women's Olympic Final
USA v Japan
Both teams to score: YES +101 -0.99 to win 1 unit
Canada and France both showed he easy you can score vs the USA weak backline - Japan took awhile to score but scored twice vs France and NZ. USA still have a ton of talent even when the ref isn't gifting them so look for Wambach to score a legitimate goal. Hopefully a quicker start then the bronze medal game...the WC Final 1-1 and no question same score possible here. Canada won bronze so USA can win if they want I just hope Japan can score early....1-1 and more extra time.

 

[DialSquares]

i really should wait a couple more rounds to start but German II has always been my best leauge and i need a few wins to get back even for the soccer year

Friday August 10th
German Bundesliga II
Koln vs SV Sandhausen
Koln -1 +103 - 0.97 to win 1 unit
Cologne dropped down from the Bundesliga I while Sandhausen was promoted from 3rd liga. Koln did lose to Braunschweig in round one but they proved to be a tricky home side last season. As well a couple of late post/crossbars cost hem. For what it is worth, Koln had a solid friendly campaign - winning 4 out of 5 matches. I do think Koln will contend all year for a quick return to German I. 3rd liga teams can prosper in the II division - Sandhausen drew at hom vs Frankfurt which for the first home match is really a poor result. A little early to know for sure but Koln at home should take care of clubs like Sandhausen.

Energie Cottbus vs Erzgebirge Aue
over 2, 2.5 -129 - 1.29 to win 1 unit
i think this year we will see the old cottbus - high scoring games and wide open matches. Last year they really struggled scoring and that nearly cost them and escaped relegation by potentially 2 points. Cottbus signed an attacking midfielder Nicolas Farina and the first match ended 2-2 vs Ingolstadt. Aue played 0-0 vs St Pauli but that's their home style and against St Pauli a good result. Last season Aue 8 overs in 17 matches - Aue had 13 over 1.5 goals in 17 road matches so the 1/2 loss bet possible. Cottbus won the last 5 H2H at home so perhaps home side is the better bet...

VfR Aalen v Kaiserslautern
over 2.5 goals -105 - 1.05 to win 1 unit
probably the worst reason to bet but both clubs had 5 and 6 goal games in week one. Aalen 4-1 winners at Duisburg and Kaiserlautern 3-3 at home vs Union Berlin. My thinking on the total is less about the stats and more about the games. That first home match for a promotion side usually inspires the home side to go for goals and they usually do score them. Usually i would take Aalen to cover a handicap at home but they might be in too tough vs a Kaiserslautern team ready to make a return to the first division. So Aalen should manage a goal but lose the match...i'd rather take the over then kaiserlautern. Both clubs played many over matches in their friendlies...1-2 kasier.
just week two so hard to really know but i really didn't like the rest of the matches so hopefully it doesn't hurt too much. GL

 

[DialSquares]

Updated Record:
Overall: 15-15-1 -0.91 units
August: 10-8-0 +2.79 units

 

[DialSquares]

Saturday August 11th
Men's Olympics
Brazil v Mexico
over 2.5 goals -138 - 1.38 to win 1 unit
funny to see the total at 3 with brazil scoring 3 goals per game. No doubt final matches can be tight but Mexico themselves have shown to be offense minded. Japan didn't conceed a goal in the group stages including wins vs Spain and Morocco yet Mexico managed 3 goals vs them. I don't think Mexico will be too intimidated by brazil and should look at the brazil match vs hondurus as inspiration that they can beat them. There is no real excuse for the line set at brazil except that a big line will bring out the favourite bettors. Perhaps Brazil knicks it in the end but i do think mexico will score. I actually do see a bit of a shocker with Mexico winning 1-2 1-3 but as long as there is 3+ goals i'll be happy.

German Bundesliga II
St Pauli vs Ingolstadt
St Pauli -1 +105 -0.95 to win 1 unit
there really is no reason to expect Ingolstadt to improve on their road record ... over the years their road record really has been poor. St Paulli with a flat effort in their first match so I think they will come out flying and kickoff their promotional run to the Bundesliga. Last season St Pauli 12-3-2 at home and won the h2h match 2-0 at home. Still early to be betting II but i do like the home side to win by that 2-0 scoreline.

England Carli....Capitiol One Cup
Leeds v Shrewsbury
Leed -1 +108 - 0.93 to win 1 Unit
I went back as far as 03-04 and Leeds have won all their first round matches in the Cup. Most by 1 goal so perhaps a push but a lot of road matches. At home vs a league one side Leeds really should be too much for them. Leeds did sign a number of players so no question if they play they will want to make a good first impression and get ready to make a run for the EPL. Shrewsbury have concerns on defense with some injuries and although they will work hard, newly promoted sides, usually have priority #1 staying in the league. Good warmup match for leeds to showcase the new signings -- 3-0 leeds.

GL today

 

[DialSquares]

something tells me a lot of people lost money on brazil today - bookies win for a reason i guess....nice to see a CONCACAF nation winning the gold esp since it wasn't the USA (just kidding i'm over the women's match..hahah)

late brazil goal made it a 2-1 day and inspired me to bet some more

Belgium - Pro League
Kortrijk v Charleroi
Kortrijk -1 -112 - 1.12 to win 1 unit
in the first two matches Charleroi look like a team that may struggle in the first division. A little early to say that but 0-2 losing 4-2 Mechelen and 0-1 to Club Brugge (down to 10 men after 26 mins for Brugge). Kortrijk finished 9 points and 3 places ahead of Mechelen and were impressive at home going 9-3-3. Good start to the year for Kort. drawing Andrelecht and beating Cercle Brugge on the road. Good start, great home side vs a newly promoted team with a slow start. I do not follow Belgium as close as the other leagues but i think home win very possible...and hopefully by 2+

Brazil - Serie B
Parana v CRB Maceio
under 2.5 goals -118 - 1.18 to win 1 unit
parana 1 over in 8 home matches, CRB 2 overs in 7 road matches. Two teams that haven't played each other since 2008 so H2H doesn't mean anything (4-0 home win for what it is worth). Both clubs have played just 1 over in 5 matches and Parana 67% unders for the year, CRB 60% unders. Stats like that don't always work but both teams should be happy with their starts and perhaps a tight 1-0 0-0 type match.

 

[DialSquares]

Tuesday August 13th
as i started typing i get pulled away so only time to post picks....i will say very risky bets so maybe good to skip 'em but i played them this morning and i do post every play i make.

GL - record should be updated tomorrow....i will trade my life with anyone if they want this week????

England - League Cup
Fleetwood Town v Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest -0.25 -110 -1.10 to win 1 unit

Preston North End v Huddersfield Town
Huddersfield Town pk -111 -1.11 to win 1 unit

Oldham Athletic v Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday -108 -1.08 to win 1 unit

3 road teams in cup matches...gotta wonder about that...

2 out of 3 would make my day

 

[DialSquares]

nice second half from sheffield saved the day....

2012-13 Record
Overall: 21-20-1 -0.27 units
August: 16-13-0 +3.43 units

for what it is worth 3-1 in the England Capitol One Cup matches

Tuesday August 14th
England Capitol One Cup
Dag and Red v Coventry
over 2.5 goals -118 - 1.18 to win 1 unit
last few 1st round cup matches for Dag have been 0-5 1-2 1-3 1-2 1-2 while Coventry have played 6 overs in 8 1st round matches. Coventry seems to take this cup very serious while Dag lost 5 straight 1st rounders. A lot of tough games for Dags during the years and should be in tough again this one. I think Conventry wins it easy enough despite the odds - Conventry do score 3+ a lot in the 1st round against the weaker sides. But outside of last's year match vs Bournemouth, Dag and Red do manage a goal per match. So 1-2 1-3 most likely result.

Exeter v Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +100 - 1.00 to win 1 unit
Crystal Palace have won the first round every year since 2007-08 including the great run last year making it to the semis while (outside of last year) Exeter lose this 1st round match. That Exeter match last season was a home match vs another league one side Yeovil QPR beat Exeter 5-0 on the road back in 2009-10. Exeter will start in League Two after relegation and although this game could be a good prep game they will be missing players. I like the fact C Palace will be starting (i think) some of their new signings. Always good to make a good impression. Like last season I think a good cup run is in the making for Palace as they probably will be a midlevel Championship side. Tough to win on the road as always but nice even odds for Palace.

Torquay v Leicester
Leicester City-0.5 and -1 -123 - 1.23 to win 1 unit
Since 2009-10 Torquay have lost all their first round Cup matches while Leicester have won all their round one matches since a bye in 2004-05. In fact Leicester makes runs into round 3 and beyond nearly every year in this cup. Leicester might have promotional thoughts in their mind but it really shouldn't effect them in this match. This team can certainly make a Cardiff type run if the draw is favourable for them. The lost to penalties to Cardiff last year (who went to the finals) prior to that WBA, Fulham, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Bolton have knocked them out. Outside of Preston a couple of years ago only EPL teams or a fellow Championship finalists have beaten them. Certainly Torquay's priority is promotion to league one after losing in the playoffs last season - a first cup match at home is a nice game to take seriously but to me Leicester over the years have been beating teams like Torquay. Leicester another team that hopefully will start their new signings and I am sure they are well aware of a cup tradition for Leicester. Perhaps with a better draw Leicester can make a serious run here but certainly against a League Two side should win even though it is on the road.

GL today

 

[DialSquares]

2012-13 Record
Overall: 23-21-1 +0.55 units
August: 18-14-0 +4.25 units

Wednesday August 15th
i wasnt planning on betting international friendlies but reading up on teams news i pick a couple

International Friendlies
Serbia v Ireland
Serbia -127 - 1.27 to win 1 unit
Ireland travelling without a lot of key players and manager "Giovanni Trapattoni feels that the match against Serbia tomorrow night is an ideal test for his young players and will show him their real character and aptitude for international football in an away venue." (ireland's FA website) It is okay to travel with youngsters in certain areas but i wonder if a trip to Serbia will be a bit too much for them. I don't know how crazy the fans get for friendlies but they certainly do in club/country matches. Serbia not playing all that well right now but tough matches vs Spain and France. Ireland with a full squad looked completely lost in the EUROs and now have to try and win without Shay Given. Westwood is a good keeper but I think if Serbia can score (which might be tough) they really should win.

England v Italy
under 2 goals +111 - 0.90 to win 1 unit
both sides well be full of players looking towards their clubs first match and not at this match. Nearly unrecognized players for Italy and England will not have Rooney, Gerard nor Arsenal's Walcott/Alex Chamberlain. A rather weak england defense could leak goals but I am not sure who would score them for Italy. I don't know how much it matters but just 1 over in 6 matches H2H since 1997. Under 2 is always a tough bet but might be worth a small punt.

Germany v Argentina
over 3 goals +100 -1.00 to win 1 unit
perhaps wishful thinking because this is the most interesting match of the day i think. Germany showed they can score in the EURos and Argentina have played 4 straight matches with 3+ goals. Germany will a few players missing and a lot of goal scorers but can still count of Klose, Ozil and Muller. Argentina really should be favoured imo but Germany can still score against any team - I think getting a 4th goal might be too much but 1-2 1-3 Argentina win.

If you are considering Canada tonight i'd lay off...zero prep time and it looks like a number of players will get their first cap. Although a normal manager would use this game to prepare for the two biggest matches in the WCQ to date (against Panama), our idiot staff thinks it is a good time to let nobodies play. And then Panama can run us out of the WC. If only Jon Herdman would move over to the men's side. I think Trinada win rather easily but i doubt it is worth a bet.

GL today - a wise man (me last year) once said never bet international friendlies on the eve of the start of the club football season. So GL is needed.

 

[DialSquares]

can't help it but i think there is money to be made on argentina today

Germany v Argentina
Argentina pk +135 - 0.75 to win 1 unit
Argentina -1 +450 -0.22 to win 1 unit

 

[DialSquares]

Friday August 17th
German Cup
Wilhelmshaven v Augsburg
Wilhelmshaven +1.5 -104 -1.04 to win 1 unit
clearly a German I team should be a Regionalliga North and Augsburg do make nice runs in the cup but i do like the home side to at least cover the spread. Augsburg main concern will be to stay in the Bundesliga and i do think teams in Germany take the first cup match seriously because it is a good prep game for the new season. But Augsburg despite winning a lot of 1st round games haven't won by 2+. Last few 1st round cup results (90 mins) draw Oberhausen, draw Sandhausen, Ingolstadt 2-1, draw Paderborn, draw Hoffenheim, and draw Burghausen. Granted Augsburg 1st round haven't come against a Reg, North side but i do think Augsburg have trouble starting the cup season. This cup is pretty famous for shocking results in the 1st round - Leipzig over wolsburg, Elversberg over hannover etc..and of all three game this is the one i think has the best chance. In any case always tough to win by 2+ on the road vs a team that probably considers this the game of the year for them (unless they win). Augsburg tend to win in extras - maybe a tough 1-2 win but a think much closer than the bookies think.

Sonnenhof v FSV Frankfurt
FSV Frankfurt -119 -1.19 to win 1 unit
FSV has a good start to the year beating Hertha Berlin 3-1....FSV have won all but 1 first round match since 2007-08..the fact they needed extras vs an Oberliga Niedersachsen side does worry me but FSV Frankfurt II managed a 1-1 road draw vs Sonnenhof so hopefully the I team can get a straight 90 min win. It seems to me FSV Frankfurt always starts off pretty good but drops off in the 2nd half of the season...hopefully the great game vs hertha can carry over to today.

Czech Gambrinus Leauge
Dukla v Slovacko
Dukla -0.75 -122 -1.22 to win 1 unit
Dukla with two great home results so far..1-1 vs last years 2nd place Sparta Prague and a 4-0 win vs last years 5th place Teplice. Dukla lost a 3-2 road match despite leading two times and giving up an 80th min goal - not a bad result considering it was a road match vs last years winners Slovan. For Dukla it is hard to imagine a better start to the year. As for Slovacko - not so good - 0-3 and only scoring 1 goal which came in a 1-4 lost to Sparta Prague. Slovacko even lost at home vs promotion side Brno (who also beat Plzen) and last years 11th place Sigma Olomouc. Slovacko finished 7th last year so it might be just a slow start (only 3 games in) but hard to ignore the difference in form and Dukla did win 2-0 in last year's fixture.

still looking and might play 5 today...we will see.. GL

 

[DialSquares]

Saturday August 18th
English Premier Leauge
WBA v Liverpool
Liverpool -103 - 1.03 to win 1 unit
WBA had 11 players called up for international duty: Gera, Shane Long, Simon Cox, Chris Brunt, Gareth McAuley, James Morrison, Graham Dorrans, Jonas Olsson, Gabriel Tamas, Boaz Myhill, and Scott Allan. Odemwingie didn't play and he led the team for goals but Long, McAauley, Morrison and Dorrans were top scorers. The biggest blow is both key central defenders Olsson and Gareth McAuley played all 90 mins for their countries...i just don't get these countries. Despite the season just started might be some tired legs from travelling. Saurez, Gerard and Lucas all didn't play for country and Borini looks like he might do pretty well in Liverpool. Skrtel, Agger and keeper Riena were the only real players to play international. Not such a big deal imo. Liverpool with two competitive matches in the EUROPA and a nice friendly win vs Levenkausen. Liverpool won last years fixture 2-0 and really need a strong start. I think Liverpool will be more rested but at the same time more match ready than WBA. And in the end they really should be the better side. Certainly liverpool struggled on the road last season but i like the addition of Borini and Assaidi. Still a 5-8th place side but good enough to beat WBA I think. And with the first EPL bet of the year might as well not care so much if it loses..haha...

German Cup
Aachen v Borussia Monchengladbach
Monchengladbach -1 +106 - 0.94 to win 1 unit
m'gladbach have won the first round of the cup every year since 2005-06 including many road games esp against lesser clubs. Aachen relegated to the 3rd liga and so far not too bad. Aachen lost last year in the first round vs Karlsruhe. Prior to that Aachen won a string of 1st round but playing all teams below the 3rd liga. M'gladbach finsihedn4th in the bundesliga and have had a great friendly season. This cup is taking very seriously from the visitors and Aachen might focus a bit more on returning to the bunesliga II esp with their start. Trend is on the home side and hopefully a multi-goal win.

Unterhaching v Cologne
over 2.5 goals -135 -1.35 to win 1 unit
both clubs play a lot of overs in the first round of the German Cup. A lot of 3-0 koln wins and 1-2 0-3 unterhaching losts. I don't think this will be an easy Koln win or maybe even that unterhaching can win. Certainly Unter. has a great start to the 3rd liga. Unter. 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 matches beating 3-0 Rostock and 4-1 Heidenheim. Heidenheim a promotional candidate and Rostock a team that dropped from II. Cologne a draw and a lost in II and 4-0 lost to Podolski and the gunners. To me both clubs should score - cup games appear to be played wide open like a lot of german clubs do. I do think Unterhaching wins but Koln does well in the first round so perhaps they nick it.
2-1 1-2 ... as long as there is 3 goals i'll be happy.
-----
i'll be looking at more english games but being week 1 i don't want to risk too much unless i really like something,

 

[DialSquares]

updated record:
2012-13 Record
Overall: 27-25-1 0.12 units
August: 22-18-0 +3.82 units

 

[DialSquares]

i'm sure i'm not the only one that likes about 12 bets today.

England Championship
Leicester v Peterborough
over 3 goals +106 - 0.94 to win 1 unit
leicester have a mini-crisis in defense and playing against a team that loves to play the wide open game and have some quality strikers. Leicester is still the better team (although -188 is crazy) and should win but it will be very difficult to keep P'boro off the board. I can see 5+ goals in this one something like 3-2. P'boro not the over giants like years pass or at least at home but i do think leicester defense will be rather weak today and knowing that they'll be offensive minded from the start.

England League One
Portsmouth v Bournemouth
Portsmouth pk +200 - 0.50 to win 1 unit
kinda a guess bet as pompey signed a ton of new players are a month-to-month loan. Some quality players actually but you wonder if they have had the time to be coherent enough today. Looks like the crowd will come out to support the troubled team and being at home should boost the home side. It could be ugly game for pompey though so definitely a gamble today. Bournemouth only won 6 of 23 road matches and lost in penalties vs league two Oxford in the Capitol One Cup midweek. I think a draw would be a good result for pompey but at +200 for the pick line just too high not to grab a bet.

 

[DialSquares]

well i didn't wake up to win 0.03 of a unit so i'll take one more...

EPL
Newcastle v Tottenham
over 2.5 goals +102 - 0.98 to win 1 unit
6 of last 7 h2h in newcastle have been overs (one cup match). All the best players managed to start for Newcastle...hopefully Spurs can score one in a 3-1 loss. but 3-0 works for me too. Kickoff starts soon so that't it

gl - adding games never works for me so bet the under

 

[ARUKIDNME]

In support of your Over selection:

Newcastle have scored more goals against Tottenham than any other Premier League team (58). In 36 meetings since 1992 / 1993, there have been 111 goals shared between the sides.

BOL

 

[DialSquares]

thanks aruk - the first half was pretty open with a crossbar so i had hoped...but realistically i didn't see 3 or more goals but glad to see it. Hopefully Newcastle hang on for the win for bets here and of course for a tottenham loss.