Well I went with my first thoughts which is portugal and goals in the german match
Wednesday June 13th
Portugal v Denmark
Portugal -114 -1.14 to win 1 unit
i hate to lose two danish bets in a week but the real Portugal shows up today imho....Netherlands have plenty of chances to score but RVP and co. kick about 75 shots over the net or lost it in their footing metres away from the net. Portugal with guys like C. Rinaldo and Nanny er..Nani won't miss those chances. Portugal also should keep Denmark away from scoring at least until they get a couple like the Czechs. Denmark could be the story of the 1st round but might come back down to life today...i really see a 2-0 3-0 type game so i skipped the total and went with the side.
Germany v Netherlands
over 3 goals +168 - 0.59 to win 1 unit
certainly the over 2.25 or 2.5 is the smarter play but i really think this will be a classic ... 3-2 2-2 match in my mind and quality right from the start. Germany would settle for a draw and 1-1 would be worry but i really think Dutch football shows up today and can squeak a win and make group B third matches very intense. Netherlands showed signs of quality but lacked a finish - Huntelaar needs to play much more than he did and probably starts either ahead of RVP or the combo...hopefully RVP is on the bench though. In the end the Netherlands needing to push might lead to multiple counterattack goals as the Germans are just about the best at that....3 goals most likely imho but I see 4+ here so taking the gamble...plus i never mind pushing a bet.
GL today - Group B record 0-3 so caution might be wise
Wednesday June 13th
Portugal v Denmark
Portugal -114 -1.14 to win 1 unit
i hate to lose two danish bets in a week but the real Portugal shows up today imho....Netherlands have plenty of chances to score but RVP and co. kick about 75 shots over the net or lost it in their footing metres away from the net. Portugal with guys like C. Rinaldo and Nanny er..Nani won't miss those chances. Portugal also should keep Denmark away from scoring at least until they get a couple like the Czechs. Denmark could be the story of the 1st round but might come back down to life today...i really see a 2-0 3-0 type game so i skipped the total and went with the side.
Germany v Netherlands
over 3 goals +168 - 0.59 to win 1 unit
certainly the over 2.25 or 2.5 is the smarter play but i really think this will be a classic ... 3-2 2-2 match in my mind and quality right from the start. Germany would settle for a draw and 1-1 would be worry but i really think Dutch football shows up today and can squeak a win and make group B third matches very intense. Netherlands showed signs of quality but lacked a finish - Huntelaar needs to play much more than he did and probably starts either ahead of RVP or the combo...hopefully RVP is on the bench though. In the end the Netherlands needing to push might lead to multiple counterattack goals as the Germans are just about the best at that....3 goals most likely imho but I see 4+ here so taking the gamble...plus i never mind pushing a bet.
GL today - Group B record 0-3 so caution might be wise
never in doubt....haha...the worst part about the game ending 2-2 would have been that useless Bendtnar scoring both goals. You have to wonder why guys like C rinaldo (and yes MESSI), RVP and the whole English team can score at will for club but not country. It could be the pressure of winning for country but i think it is all about not getting paid as well to score for the country. Sad but that's modern footy for you. Just glad a portugal winner but no reason to make it so hard
3-2 for the next match works for me -
3-2 for the next match works for me -
thanks patsfan - hopefully 1 more winner as it has been hard to get 2 full winners for me. Betting the over 3 means profit again but small daily profits don't thrill me like massive kickass ones..haha...i do wish Netherlands had Huntelaar starting but i think this time the manager won't wait so long to put him in.
GL
GL
Wedenesday June 14th
Italy v Croatia
over 2 goals -133 -1.33 to win 1 unit
it seems a lot of love for italy which i just dont understand. Spain's style doesn't bold well against an italian team and odds certainly reflected that. Croatia will have a different game plan and with the Italian draw vs spain know they really need to go for a win here. A draw would probably mean they would need at least a point vs spain and that will be a tough ask. So I expect Croatia to play the wide open style with plenty of counter-attacks. Italy's defense is still experimental with de rossi back there....spain had their chances but just didn't score. I do believe Croatia will fare better. Because I see some quality punters on italy i am not touching croatia but with both sides knowing a winner here would spell trouble for the other I do think this will be much more open than a tradition Italy game. I just don't trust Italy's defense against a more physical team who don't pass it 86 times before the take one shot ... feels like a 2-1 ... italy might try to slow the game down if it is 1-1 in the 2nd half so over 2 would be my only play...and not over 2.5. To me 2-1 Croatia but as always i always think italy is going to lose.
Italy v Croatia
over 2 goals -133 -1.33 to win 1 unit
it seems a lot of love for italy which i just dont understand. Spain's style doesn't bold well against an italian team and odds certainly reflected that. Croatia will have a different game plan and with the Italian draw vs spain know they really need to go for a win here. A draw would probably mean they would need at least a point vs spain and that will be a tough ask. So I expect Croatia to play the wide open style with plenty of counter-attacks. Italy's defense is still experimental with de rossi back there....spain had their chances but just didn't score. I do believe Croatia will fare better. Because I see some quality punters on italy i am not touching croatia but with both sides knowing a winner here would spell trouble for the other I do think this will be much more open than a tradition Italy game. I just don't trust Italy's defense against a more physical team who don't pass it 86 times before the take one shot ... feels like a 2-1 ... italy might try to slow the game down if it is 1-1 in the 2nd half so over 2 would be my only play...and not over 2.5. To me 2-1 Croatia but as always i always think italy is going to lose.
hey patsfan - i guess you posted as i was typing it out...haha...if you considering a side and liked italy i would still play it. I can easily talk myself out of backing italy or italian clubs so on the side i am bias.
As for the spain v ireland - no value anywhere. Spain probably realizes a draw vs Italy might make a goal difference for first race so they might fire 4-5 goals vs ireland today. But you just can't trust any team to win by 2+ goals. Perhaps if the italy over hits i might have some play but right now i don't see any value in anytime.
GL if you play the over - Croatia scoring first would be huge for me/us
As for the spain v ireland - no value anywhere. Spain probably realizes a draw vs Italy might make a goal difference for first race so they might fire 4-5 goals vs ireland today. But you just can't trust any team to win by 2+ goals. Perhaps if the italy over hits i might have some play but right now i don't see any value in anytime.
GL if you play the over - Croatia scoring first would be huge for me/us
yet another push...push sucks this time because i think italy will now qualify into the next round was the draw. Not recommended but i took Ireland Team Total Over 0.5 +135
reason is limited but even barca and madrid conceed goals because they are trying to pile on 3-4-5 goals. I actually think this one will be a cakewalk and Spain wins 4-1 -- and i only write 1 for ireland to satisfy my wager.
So
Spain v Ireland
Ireland Team Total over 0.5 +135 - 0.37 to win 0.5 unit
only 1/2 because it really is dumb.
reason is limited but even barca and madrid conceed goals because they are trying to pile on 3-4-5 goals. I actually think this one will be a cakewalk and Spain wins 4-1 -- and i only write 1 for ireland to satisfy my wager.
So
Spain v Ireland
Ireland Team Total over 0.5 +135 - 0.37 to win 0.5 unit
only 1/2 because it really is dumb.
yeah -- i would have wager much more to win - here i can keep it small and still win 0.5 of a unit. Over 2.5 i'd have to bet 0.63 to win 0.5 of a unit. So yeah you are definitely right that if ireland do score there is a good shot that the over hits but if it does end 1-0 2-0 spain then at least i only lost 0.37. 3-0 Spain would piss me off a bit but hopefully by tournament end i won money and the 0.37 loss wouldn't matter.
I do think if Spain doesn't rest a few for the next match they'll score 3 today so i like the over and Spain -1.5.
I do think if Spain doesn't rest a few for the next match they'll score 3 today so i like the over and Spain -1.5.
wow torres getting +125 to score anytime...lineups announced and he is up along with over the bar silva and better mans Robben Iniesta....looks like a 3 spot side to me today. GL if you take the over ... i might wait and hope no goals in 25 mins and pinny gives me a decent over 2 line.
GL ---
GL ---
