Cris(bookmaker) college openers

[YourAllAmerican]

Unless a person is playing moneylines -- which is a different thing altogether -- every football bet is made against either a line or a total. Straight bets, parlays, teasers, whatever, they all require a bettor to beat a spread or a total.

If I hit between 55% and 60% I'm very pleased, as that likely means I'm striking the right balance between winning enough and making enough bets. So that's my target zone, 55%-60%.

Here's your chance to set the record straight, Russ. What win rate ATS and/or O/U do you consider good? Not an all-star year that come along only every so often, and not a barely-scraped-by year, but what do you consider to be a solid rate for a year-after-year average?

 

[russ1945]

Unless a person is playing moneylines -- which is a different thing altogether -- every football bet is made against either a line or a total. Straight bets, parlays, teasers, whatever, they all require a bettor to beat a spread or a total.

If I hit between 55% and 60% I'm very pleased, as that likely means I'm striking the right balance between winning enough and making enough bets. So that's my target zone, 55%-60%.

Here's your chance to set the record straight, Russ. What win rate ATS and/or O/U do you consider good? Not an all-star year that come along only every so often, and not a barely-scraped-by year, but what do you consider to be a solid rate for a year-after-year average?

I am being honest when I say that neither I nor any of my friends who bet college football have ever kept track of an ATS, but we all do bet parlays and until this forum came up and I mentioned it to them, none of us could even imagine not incorporating them into your weekly plays. What I said was that if you hit 55% without hitting parlays you do not stand to show much profit for your efforts. I guess if you throw around some big money you can but I think most people on here do not play more than a couple hunderd on a single play and some much less than that. I can see where there is a lot of pressure on a forum to put your picks where your mouth is but there is no assurance that the money is actually being put up. When Randy (Randizzle14) posted something on here that I thought was a pretty nice gesture, BS popped off saying "who does this guy think he is, God's gift to handicapping" or words to that effect. He did not even notice that his thread had something like 26,000 hits on it. People came on here and spoke up for Randizzle. I started posting on here in late January on my main thread and shared everything I found and put it on there and even came up with a spreadsheet. I kind of went south on this forum at some point because there is a fraternity like atmosphere that you can't say what you say unless you can back it up. When you are a first time poster you and I both know you cannot do that. So all the emphasis shifts to the assumption that you do not know what you are talking about because you have not proved yourself to the fraternity. Conan came out with the ATS challenge a lot time ago. Of course BS followed up right behind him. Randy told me there were those on here that made fun of him and tried to run him off.
When I made the comment about 55% I made it in the context of I would not find that acceptable and because I use parlays it really did not apply to my success in terms of money and that I was not going to make up a fictitious ATS which I could not substantiate. I can tell you that I tripled my offshore account last Sept. and more than doubled it afterward. You can take my word for it or not. So to answer your question I really don't know how to answer your question except to say that without parlays that 55% would not be an acceptable return on my time and effort. Sorry to be long winded but I thought your question deserved an honest and
thorough explanation. It was not my intention to make fun of anyone or to make boasts beyond my means. I think what I will do is just post a 5 teamer on here every week and let them speak for themselves. Maybe 5-0Sat can share his too.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

I think what I will do is just post a 5 teamer on here every week and let them speak for themselves. Maybe 5-0Sat can share his too.

Are you only betting one 5 teamer each week or only going to post one here each week?

What approximate % of 5 team parlays do you usually win each season?

 

[bellyputter]

I can tell you that I tripled my offshore account last Sept. and more than doubled it afterward.

You have been wagering for 40 years and you have ONE out! The next time you guys see me is when CRIS(Bookmaker) goes up. It won't be long. Good Luck

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Randizzle had a fanstastic run last year. One of those seasons every capper dreams of, but that don't come along very often. Why the hostility toward him that popped up from time to time I haven't been able to understand, as he seemed like a nice kid and would give reasoning rather than just picks, and reasoning is really the more important of the two.

I think part of the reason you can't understand the 55% that is so commonly tossed around on this forum is simply because you've never kept records. Profit is always the singlemost important betting stat, that's true, but it begins and ends with skill at beating a line or total. That's why so many bettors keep records of their own plays -- even breaking apart 5-team parlays into separate items -- it helps as a study aid to a person's strengths and weaknesses in betting.

If you managed a six-bagger with your bankroll last year, that it outstanding. But it can't be counted on to happen every year.

As an experiment you might want to try keeping track of ATS and O/U win rate per each wager this season (breaking apart a 5-team parlay into 5 individual segments, for example). Doing that might give more insight into the percentages actually required per bet segment in order to boost the bottom line of profits.

 

[SoonerBS]

I am being honest when I say that neither I nor any of my friends who bet college football have ever kept track of an ATS, but we all do bet parlays and until this forum came up and I mentioned it to them, none of us could even imagine not incorporating them into your weekly plays. What I said was that if you hit 55% without hitting parlays you do not stand to show much profit for your efforts. I guess if you throw around some big money you can but I think most people on here do not play more than a couple hunderd on a single play and some much less than that. I can see where there is a lot of pressure on a forum to put your picks where your mouth is but there is no assurance that the money is actually being put up. When Randy (Randizzle14) posted something on here that I thought was a pretty nice gesture, BS popped off saying "who does this guy think he is, God's gift to handicapping" or words to that effect. He did not even notice that his thread had something like 26,000 hits on it. People came on here and spoke up for Randizzle. I started posting on here in late January on my main thread and shared everything I found and put it on there and even came up with a spreadsheet. I kind of went south on this forum at some point because there is a fraternity like atmosphere that you can't say what you say unless you can back it up. When you are a first time poster you and I both know you cannot do that. So all the emphasis shifts to the assumption that you do not know what you are talking about because you have not proved yourself to the fraternity. Conan came out with the ATS challenge a lot time ago. Of course BS followed up right behind him. Randy told me there were those on here that made fun of him and tried to run him off.
When I made the comment about 55% I made it in the context of I would not find that acceptable and because I use parlays it really did not apply to my success in terms of money and that I was not going to make up a fictitious ATS which I could not substantiate. I can tell you that I tripled my offshore account last Sept. and more than doubled it afterward. You can take my word for it or not. So to answer your question I really don't know how to answer your question except to say that without parlays that 55% would not be an acceptable return on my time and effort. Sorry to be long winded but I thought your question deserved an honest and
thorough explanation. It was not my intention to make fun of anyone or to make boasts beyond my means. I think what I will do is just post a 5 teamer on here every week and let them speak for themselves. Maybe 5-0Sat can share his too.

Your sob story is getting old. How many times you going to tell it before the season starts?

I didn't know who Randizzle was whenever I came in here in February because he's never around during the offseason "roll up your sleeves and get down to work" sessions we have in here. I don't personally have anything against him I just wondered why there was still a "dick-sucking" thread remaining active about him in February whenever the 2008 season was over. I didn't know you had a man crush on him, Russ. Now I do.

Everyone who usually meets in here over the Summer tries to share info and analyze that information in trying to spot some potential moneymakers for the upcoming season. Nobody tries to brow beat anybody normally and no one usually tries to persuade anyone else how smart they are or how great a handicapper and gambler they are. For the most part they don't have to do it because everyone has seen each other at work for several seasons and there is a mutual respect. BUT, you and BigDaddy came in here this offseason and have tried to change the rules. I've never seen two posters so hungry for attention and so demanding of respect as you two have been. Well, respect is earned and neither one of you have earned it.

Conan tried to help you out earlier this Spring by telling you what the protocol was around here but you wanted to puff your chest out and act like you didn't need his help. Now you're crying like a little whiny bitch. If you don't like the way you get treated on this forum then why don't you just take your ball and go home?

You keep bringing my name up in your posts, Russ. I think you have SoonerBS envy . . . . . you naughty bugger.

 

[russ1945]

Are you only betting one 5 teamer each week or only going to post one here each week?

What approximate % of 5 team parlays do you usually win each season?

When I got hot in September I did the 5x4x5 roundrobins and hit 4 out of 5 a few times. In Sept I did not come back against them to guarantee me money. Just guessing I would say I probably floated out 10 round robins like that in Sept and hit three round robins and I know for sure I hit a $25 five teamer that I just threw out there. I also had straight bets. When I say round robins I mean (5) 4 teamers and (1) five teamer, no two or three team combinations of those five teams. For the season I would say I hit about 10 and I probably bet 10 to 12 a month during the regular season. I did not bet any five teamers on the bowls just straight bets and in fact I lost some on the bowls. I would just guess and say I hit in the 25% to 30% range. And quite honestly that was the second year that I incorporated the parlays into my betting. I had pretty good success the first year but only bet one a week. Since I had more success the second year I just went with the flow. It could well be that LY was a fluke but basically all I was trying to say from the get go is try it, try it small, and see if it helps. It really did make me study harder and focus better. I will post one parlay on here each week, one that I actually bet, and you guys can chart them. Despite what some people think I am actually trying to share what I learned. If you hit one every 12.5 times you do not lose money. I know those are not true odds at 20 to 1 but it is still a nice return on your investment.

 

[russ1945]

Bs

I just told it like it was. Why do you feel compelled to talk like a Hillbilly and run everyone down. You could have asked about Randizzle in a civil way but that is not in your nature. You have more cuss words in that single post than most people would put on in year. I think you might be jealous because a dumb old guy like me can get a thread going with any success.
GS was right, some people on here are not exemplary of what Oklahomans are all about. I brought up your name because you actually said what you said about Randy the way that you said it. You knock him for not being around for these preseason sessions yet you dissapear once the season starts because the forum gets cluttered with too many "morons". How condescending of you. Randy shares real information that put cash in the pocket. You copy and paste and give us your opinions and then disappear.
Which helped the members more, you or him. He was here when it counts and shares his picks with any and everybody. He treated everyone like equals and still got the run around by some. There is no way you can please everyone on this forum. Despite what you and others think I have a lot of respect for Conan because he stands up for what he believes in.
He is never negative just to be negative. There are people on forums whose personalities come out more than others, and some personalities clash. That would be where we started and it will not change. So be it.

 

[SoonerBS]

I just told it like it was. Why do you feel compelled to talk like a Hillbilly and run everyone down. You could have asked about Randizzle in a civil way but that is not in your nature. You have more cuss words in that single post than most people would put on in year. I think you might be jealous because a dumb old guy like me can get a thread going with any success.
GS was right, some people on here are not exemplary of what Oklahomans are all about. I brought up your name because you actually said what you said about Randy the way that you said it. You knock him for not being around for these preseason sessions yet you dissapear once the season starts because the forum gets cluttered with too many "morons". How condescending of you. Randy shares real information that put cash in the pocket. You copy and paste and give us your opinions and then disappear.
Which helped the members more, you or him. He was here when it counts and shares his picks with any and everybody. He treated everyone like equals and still got the run around by some. There is no way you can please everyone on this forum. Despite what you and others think I have a lot of respect for Conan because he stands up for what he believes in.
He is never negative just to be negative. There are people on forums whose personalities come out more than others, and some personalities clash. That would be where we started and it will not change. So be it.

Haven't you heard the latest reports out? Cussing is good for a person's health.

I'm glad you have a good relationship with "Randy" and that he puts money in your pocket. I put over 100+ units in everybody's pocket last year and documented the progress in my signature as the season went along so that everybody would know it. All you have done is come on and talk about how 55% isn't good enough for you and how you hit 5 team parlays like their nothing. Where's the proof, Russ? That is all I have been asking since you have been shooting your mouth off. So far, there is no proof. Just talk.

 

[russ1945]

Haven't you heard the latest reports out? Cussing is good for a person's health.

I'm glad you have a good relationship with "Randy" and that he puts money in your pocket. I put over 100+ units in everybody's pocket last year and documented the progress in my signature as the season went along so that everybody would know it. All you have done is come on and talk about how 55% isn't good enough for you and how you hit 5 team parlays like their nothing. Where's the proof, Russ? That is all I have been asking since you have been shooting your mouth off. So far, there is no proof. Just talk.

Same old broken record.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I am going to put an end to this argument between Russ and the rest of the panel. Russ, either post EVERY one of your wages, including parlays, teasers and other ways of throwing your money away, or do not post about anything that has to do with systems, winning records, or the like. It is that simple. I have worked with casino's in Vegas, and I can guararntee you that if you are a winner (and I sincerely doubt that), you are one of the few. So there it is. Either post all of your picks, or post none, and DO NOT talk about parlays, systems, how well you think you have done, or anything else like that. You can not choose which games to post, and then hit us with "I didn't tell you about my top pick", a common excuse used by losers and one that you were angling for. That is out. Post them all, or none at all. I think the others will agree with me. I wager more in one year than you do in 10, so please do not tell me about systems, and odds, and anything else. I learned from the guys in Vegas who set these types of wagers up. Guys who'se expertese is so far beyone yours that it is not even close. And please, stop with the 55% crap. You would love to hit 55% and you know it. That is getting old. Also stop with the same posts in every thread in here. This subject and you should be closed until you agree to tell us all of your wagers. Continue the way you are, and you are begging for major personal attacks based on your claims. You want to prove your point? This season is the time to do it.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

On a positive note, these couple of heated threads have put an end to the theory that Russ and Bigdaddy are the same person. So at least something good has come from them.

Perhaps it's time to move on, since the agruments seem to have run their course and have slipped into personal attacks.

 

[russ1945]

On a positive note, these couple of heated threads have put an end to the theory that Russ and Bigdaddy are the same person. So at least something good has come from them.

Perhaps it's time to move on, since the agruments seem to have run their course and have slipped into personal attacks.

One more thing. Someone mentioned Units. What is the standard for an ATS record on here. Do you rate the games by the number of unit or just go by pick won or lost with no units involved. If units are allowed is there a limit, 5 or 10? What are the guidelines?

 

[UoweDucks]

units here are all relative. You get wide ranges.

do a search on mistaflava

 

[SoonerBS]

units here are all relative. You get wide ranges.

do a search on mistaflava

 

[KOOPSTAKNICCA]

units here are all relative. You get wide ranges.

do a search on mistaflava

No Kidding!!! This guy wagers games from 5 to 10 units and then goes insane with 100 and 200 Unit GOY's. Makes no sense to me to spend the time into handicapping then blowing it with poor money management.
:toast:

 

[Conan]

Russ...I didn't respond because I don't hold spring games in high regard. It still amazes me that when a QB or offense struggles in this game that they are automatically written off come fall. Before the 2008 season Texas also struggled on offense in their spring game. Automatically some people say they struggled during the spring, so they're going to struggle in the fall, without stopping to think that maybe the defense had something to do with the poor offensive performance. In Mack Brown and the Horns case, they were breaking in some running backs, and the spring game served as more of a tryout scrimmage than it did an actual game, which ended up 14-10 and dominated by what turned out to be a very good defnese. This could very well hold true in the Georgia spring game too. Was it a good performance by the defense or a poor performance by the offense? You made some valid points against Georgia and for OSU. But all I was saying is you can forget the emotional edge one team has over another. There won't be one here. I think another poster made a good point with OSU and their inabilty to beat the major powers up to this point. Something else to take into consideration seeing as how OSU will be in the rare spot as an actual favorite against a major BCS team from a power conference. Again, I'm not saying OSU can't or won't win that game. I'm just saying if your going to bring up past statisitcs or what players and TD's were lost to graduation, you also need to add the statistic of significant wins by OSU in the favorites role in a big game. Which up to this point has been pretty much non-existent.

That part of your quote GoSooners got me thinking. This also holds true for the start of the season for many teams. The defense ALWAYS leads the offense in getting its act together. Offenses rely heavily on timing on almost every play to make things work out. That takes a while to develop.

Another factor that MUST be weighed heavily into it, and I say that from having watched USC put a parade of key skill position players on the field year after year, the success of new and returning offensive players that handle the ball depends 80+% on the quality of their returning offensive linemen. So when you do see an offense gel and come together as an efficient scoring unit, their OL is the foundation of it. Then you go from there. Not the other way around. Just watch how USC does after a few games to get their timing down with Corp or whoever gets the starting job. Their OL will demonstrate exactly what I have been saying... and they will hold things together until their ball handlers get their timing down with every facet of the offense. I expect some more of that must see TV after a few weeks this season. They may be prepared for OSU too. It's happened before.

If you want to know why some all-american or all conference quality WR's, RB's and even QB's have off seasons, in most cases just look at the OL they played with. Whever you see a lot of fresh new faces starting on the OL, a drop off in scoring is eminent. When in doubt, just go back to the fundamentals.

 

[Conan]

One more thing. Someone mentioned Units. What is the standard for an ATS record on here. Do you rate the games by the number of unit or just go by pick won or lost with no units involved. If units are allowed is there a limit, 5 or 10? What are the guidelines?

Just keep it sane.

1 unit avg play
2 units strong play
3 units very strong play

Some people do it differently like for example 1 unit, 3 units, 5 units, 10 units etc... but mainly it's about how YOU put your money in action. At least that's the theory but I'm sure a lot of people here BS with that like Mistaflava. 5 units for say $100/unit but then you get a 100 unit game for $10,000? I don't think so. Just keep it real.

etc. just a suggestion. I often use single units for most plays and about 1 or 2 plays per week are double units. In other words it lets people know which plays IMHO are the strongest. I use the 3 unit play rarely, perhaps just several times a year. Whatever works for you. I wager according to my own strength of play. Single, double triple the action according to the unit value per play.

You can also keep track of parlays thrown in to the unit totals... such as 1/2 unit on 3 team parlay loses 1/2 unit when it loses or wins 3 units (6-1) if it wins.

I would keep straight bets separate from parlay wagers in terms of W/L % accountability. You can keep them separate from each other, and probably should. But the units won/lost can be a running total in and of itself.

• All straight bets W/L and %
• All single unit bets W/L % (also net units won)
• All double unit bets W/L % (also net units won)
• All triple unit bets W/L % (also net units won)
• All parlay wagers W/L % (also net units won)

All of them separate so people will know how well you are able to weight wagers based on strength of play. The overall total W/L + % (all straight bets) gives people an idea of how well your plays hit in an overall sense. You can also divide them up further into sides and game totals if you wish to be that specific.

I would just ignore the Mistaflava's of the world who have no discipline with money management.

 

[SoonerBS]

MistaFlava doesn't gamble real money anymore, not since I helped bail him out of his last gambling endeavor about 4 years ago. He got in hawk with some bookies in Canada over bad gambling practices. He asked me to loan him some money, said it was for a loan on a new house, I loaned him $500.00 (I know, it was stupid, but I learned a lesson) and come to find out it was to pay a gambling debt. I finally got payed back after hounding him for it over a year later.

No one bets 50 or 100 units on a single game. That is ludicrous. MistaFlava likes attention and he gets it by writing huge articles that fool the novices on these forums. Then he gets a large following which he likes. It usually doesn't take him long to get behind in his units, so he bets 50 to 100 imaginary units to try and get his posted record back up in the black. He's all about trying to impress on posters that he is a good handicapper and big time gambler, but he is not, he is a fraud.

Yes, it's a shame that he sucks in newbies that think he is a poster of good reputation, but then again, everyone should be doing their own handicapping instead of following others blindly anyway.

 

[russ1945]

Just keep it sane.

1 unit avg play
2 units strong play
3 units very strong play

Some people do it differently like for example 1 unit, 3 units, 5 units, 10 units etc... but mainly it's about how YOU put your money in action. At least that's the theory but I'm sure a lot of people here BS with that like Mistaflava. 5 units for say $100/unit but then you get a 100 unit game for $10,000? I don't think so. Just keep it real.

etc. just a suggestion. I often use single units for most plays and about 1 or 2 plays per week are double units. In other words it lets people know which plays IMHO are the strongest. I use the 3 unit play rarely, perhaps just several times a year. Whatever works for you. I wager according to my own strength of play. Single, double triple the action according to the unit value per play.

You can also keep track of parlays thrown in to the unit totals... such as 1/2 unit on 3 team parlay loses 1/2 unit when it loses or wins 3 units (6-1) if it wins.

I would keep straight bets separate from parlay wagers in terms of W/L % accountability. You can keep them separate from each other, and probably should. But the units won/lost can be a running total in and of itself.

• All straight bets W/L and %
• All single unit bets W/L % (also net units won)
• All double unit bets W/L % (also net units won)
• All triple unit bets W/L % (also net units won)
• All parlay wagers W/L % (also net units won)

All of them separate so people will know how well you are able to weight wagers based on strength of play. The overall total W/L + % (all straight bets) gives people an idea of how well your plays hit in an overall sense. You can also divide them up further into sides and game totals if you wish to be that specific.

I would just ignore the Mistaflava's of the world who have no discipline with money management.

Thanks Conan. I get it, the main thing is to keep it real. The problem I was having in the first place was that I thought W/L ATS would be one win or one loss per pick. When I heard units mentioned in my mind that is a different animal. In my mind I guess I am having trouble reconciling the 55% goal based on units as being different from being based on one win or loss per pick. Moot point I guess. It boils down to investment and return.
Gotcha.