Russ...When you say things like "I very seldom go with the Pokes, but this is a big game for them" this is telling me that your playing them on what you think their emotions will be for the game. But since you didn't mention Georgia in this way, I assumed you didn't mean them. Sorry, my bad. I was unaware that a clear structured sentence like this meant two different things.
I think it's crucial to Oklahoma State that the game is the opener and not mid/late season.
One advantage GA has over OSU is overall team depth and during early season it isn't as important as mid/late season.
Unlike several b12 rx handicappers, I do like OSU to win against GA.
One advantage GA has over OSU is overall team depth and during early season it isn't as important as mid/late season.
Unlike several b12 rx handicappers, I do like OSU to win against GA.
You keep trying to read my mind and put words in my mouth that I don't say. You said this is a big game for Georgia, so they will be emotionless. I hope they have an emotion guage onthe field so we know who to go with. Good grief man. Like I said, lay down why you like Georgia and I will reply. I am not trying to read your mind or put words in your mouth and you can make as many clear structured sentences as you like.
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:country-region><st1
lace>Georgia</st1lace></st1:country-region><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Well I guess I will have to take the lead. I asked if you saw the <st1:country-region><st1
lace>Georgia</st1lace></st1:country-region> spring game and you did not reply. Well I did and they struggled offensively. I know you have a woody because they have 5 OL back even though they lose a guy who threw for 3459 yds and a guy who ran for 1400 yds they will not miss a beat, especially in their first game, on the road, on national TV. Oh did I mention that those two guys accounted for 88% of LY’s offense. No problem. <st1:country-region><st1lace>Georgia</st1lace></st1:country-region> returns players who accounted for 13ppg LY.It gets better on defense. LY they gave up 24.5ppg (59<SUP>th</SUP>) and gave up 38 pts or more 5 times. They did have some injuries and 20 different players started at various times during the year. The 24.5ppg they gave up was 3.6ppg less than OSU gave up and <st1:country-region><st1
lace>Georgia</st1lace></st1:country-region> did not have to face Bradford, McCoy, Daniel, or Harrell as did OSU. Although <st1:country-region><st1
lace>Georgia</st1lace></st1:country-region> would love to win this game and will give it all they have, if they lose everyone will just shrug their shoulders and say “they just need a little more time”.<o
> </o><st1
lace><st1
laceName>Oklahoma</st1laceName> <st1laceType>State</st1laceType></st1lace> <o
> </o>Offensively OSU returns players who scored 37ppg last year. They are a well balanced team as LY they accounted for 3191 yards rushing and 3149 yards passing. The OSU OL returns players with 91 career starts.
Defensively OSU has a new DC and should have an improved defense this year. They will be applying pressure on Cox and if they stop the run <st1:country-region><st1
lace>Georgia</st1lace></st1:country-region> will be hard pressed to keep up with OSU in the scoring department.<o
> </o>OSU players were soundly blasted by HC Gundy after the loss to <st1:State><st1
lace>Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> in which he called them out for not being “physical”. They just dedicated a new world class S & C center this year and they have been challenged by Gundy. I fully expect this years players to be bigger and stronger than LY’s version. This is a home game, and OSU would gain a lot of respect by starting off the season with a win. Being on national TV makes it a very big game. OSU starts off the season with 4 home games and if they win this game could host <st1:State><st1lace>Texas</st1lace></st1:State> sporting a 7-0 record on Oct. 31.<o
> </o>Russ...I didn't respond because I don't hold spring games in high regard. It still amazes me that when a QB or offense struggles in this game that they are automatically written off come fall. Before the 2008 season Texas also struggled on offense in their spring game. Automatically some people say they struggled during the spring, so they're going to struggle in the fall, without stopping to think that maybe the defense had something to do with the poor offensive performance. In Mack Brown and the Horns case, they were breaking in some running backs, and the spring game served as more of a tryout scrimmage than it did an actual game, which ended up 14-10 and dominated by what turned out to be a very good defnese. This could very well hold true in the Georgia spring game too. Was it a good performance by the defense or a poor performance by the offense? You made some valid points against Georgia and for OSU. But all I was saying is you can forget the emotional edge one team has over another. There won't be one here. I think another poster made a good point with OSU and their inabilty to beat the major powers up to this point. Something else to take into consideration seeing as how OSU will be in the rare spot as an actual favorite against a major BCS team from a power conference. Again, I'm not saying OSU can't or won't win that game. I'm just saying if your going to bring up past statisitcs or what players and TD's were lost to graduation, you also need to add the statistic of significant wins by OSU in the favorites role in a big game. Which up to this point has been pretty much non-existent.<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
Well I guess I will have to take the lead. I asked if you saw the <st1:country-region><st1
It gets better on defense. LY they gave up 24.5ppg (59<SUP>th</SUP>) and gave up 38 pts or more 5 times. They did have some injuries and 20 different players started at various times during the year. The 24.5ppg they gave up was 3.6ppg less than OSU gave up and <st1:country-region><st1
Although <st1:country-region><st1
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Offensively OSU returns players who scored 37ppg last year. They are a well balanced team as LY they accounted for 3191 yards rushing and 3149 yards passing. The OSU OL returns players with 91 career starts.
Defensively OSU has a new DC and should have an improved defense this year. They will be applying pressure on Cox and if they stop the run <st1:country-region><st1
<o
OSU players were soundly blasted by HC Gundy after the loss to <st1:State><st1
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Gs
I know all about the lack of significant wins by OSU over ranked opponents. As you should have noticed, I think they can also beat Texas at home later in the year. Yes, I am calling for two in the same year. Why, because this may be, and I repeat may be, the best OSU team in a long long time. The schedule sets up nicely (Georgia at home, three more at home, at Texas A & M, Missouri, at Baylor Texas at home, at Iowa St, Texas Tech and Colorado back to back at home, and the finale at OU, a game in which both teams could be undefeated (emphasis on the could be). Coming off an 8-4 season and two butt kickings at the end of the year by OU and Oregon, OSU will be going to war against Georgia and Gundy is in their faces about toughness all summer.
There is no way I bet Georiga, and sit back and hope that they can score and keep scoring against an OSU team that can and will, all day long.
Their vaunted defense LY gave up over 38 ppg 5 tmes last year. Stafford and Moreno ae gone. OSU will have the four best offensive players on the field that day, Okung, Robinson, Hunter, Bryant. That may the most offensive weapons that a Georgia team has faced in a long long time. Meanwhile the OSU defense has gone up agianst, McCoy, Daniels, Harrell, Bradford, and Masoli. I see a long afternoon for Joe Cox. I realize that Richt has a 10-2 record against ranked opponents but don't think that he has ever walked into a hornets nest like this with so little offensive firepower. It is just too much to ask of Cox under those conditions and at that time of the season.
I know all about the lack of significant wins by OSU over ranked opponents. As you should have noticed, I think they can also beat Texas at home later in the year. Yes, I am calling for two in the same year. Why, because this may be, and I repeat may be, the best OSU team in a long long time. The schedule sets up nicely (Georgia at home, three more at home, at Texas A & M, Missouri, at Baylor Texas at home, at Iowa St, Texas Tech and Colorado back to back at home, and the finale at OU, a game in which both teams could be undefeated (emphasis on the could be). Coming off an 8-4 season and two butt kickings at the end of the year by OU and Oregon, OSU will be going to war against Georgia and Gundy is in their faces about toughness all summer.
There is no way I bet Georiga, and sit back and hope that they can score and keep scoring against an OSU team that can and will, all day long.
Their vaunted defense LY gave up over 38 ppg 5 tmes last year. Stafford and Moreno ae gone. OSU will have the four best offensive players on the field that day, Okung, Robinson, Hunter, Bryant. That may the most offensive weapons that a Georgia team has faced in a long long time. Meanwhile the OSU defense has gone up agianst, McCoy, Daniels, Harrell, Bradford, and Masoli. I see a long afternoon for Joe Cox. I realize that Richt has a 10-2 record against ranked opponents but don't think that he has ever walked into a hornets nest like this with so little offensive firepower. It is just too much to ask of Cox under those conditions and at that time of the season.
It amazes me how much passion is shown on these gambling sites by people backing a certain"side." So many factors are used in formulating a line, that most of these verbal wars are simply useless. Remember this. In today's wagering climate(huge line movement over KEY #s), either the opening or closing number is going to be right, or land somewhere in between. It is your job to find VALUE no matter what side or sides(see--middle) you are on. There are many outlandish statements made during the course of a season backing a side, but try and be civil and respect everyone's point of view. Regardless what you think, it is still gambling with a ball that takes some funny bounces. Good Luck
So, Oklahoma State played against those 5 QBs last year and got their asses handed to them by 4 of them and this means that Joe Cox is going to have a long day in Stillwater. That is some amazing reasoning . . . .
Can a new assistant coachmake adifference? Yes he can, but onlyto a certain extent. But the fact is that dis defense cannot be better than the talent those players have, and Oklahoma State's defense is not real talented. Even though Okie State returns 6 starters on defense, what good is that if they do not play well? Their LB's are going to have to lead the way. Sure they can have a very good team,but nothing is guaranteed in college football,and a team with such a questionable defense is never a safe play. I would not touch the game,but don't be shocked if Georgia, who has nothing to lose, gives Okie State more than they bargained for. Even if this is one of the best Okie State teams in a long time, you are talking Okie State. That is like talking Missouri, or Kansas.
BP...You know better than probably anybody on here how many factors and models go into making a line. But I've still found that in the first 2 weeks of the season the lines are still off the most than they are the rest of the season. After that you need to be creative when picking these games. And I've found that most of the cappers on this and the other forums simply aren't very creative. I get a lot of numbers thrown at me every week on here. But they mean nothing if you don't know the mental state of a certain team that week. Or the coaches intentions for a certain game. I see posters who don't play the odds well. They bet too many marquee games (for instance Georgia vs OSU), play too many road favorites, play too many rivalry games, play too many games period. These kinds of bets are usually what lead to more blimishes on a cappers record than any other games. I've been guilty of this myself at times. But these are mistakes that I avoid more and more each year. As for OSU-Georgia, I think there are some decent arguments on both sides with this game. But right now I see no value with a -3 point line. If it was a bigger spread I would be considering Georgia in this spot. At 3 you have to be leaning towards the home team. Problem is I don't trust OSU or their defense. So unless the public changes this line significantly (doubt that will happen) I'll pass on this one.
Bs
Now let me see, McCoy handed OSU their asses in that 28-24 win in Austin. Ok. OSU beat Missouri so I think it was Daniels ass that was handled on that day. And in the other three matchups Harrell and Texas Tech coming off a landmark victory against Texas carry the momentum over and puts it to the Pokes, after which Bradford and Masoli stuck a fork in them too. Now which of those QB's are you comparing to Cox of Georgia.
Get real. Georgia may have a better defense than OSU but can their offense keep the ball away from the OSU offense long enough to get their defense some rest. OSU can and will score. I very seldom bet on OSU. I took them against Missouri, Baylor, and Texas LY. I went against them with Texas Tech and OU and did not bet the bowl game.
Despite being put on the defensive on here I am trying to make it very clear that I am not an OSU homer, never was, never will be. But if you live in Oklahoma and do not realize that OSU is a very competitive and capable team with a lot of key, point scoring, players returning and that Georgia has a lot of questions to answer on the road and on national TV.
I have not heard any logical support for you concentrating on why you think Georgia will prevail. In fact you talk like you think that OSU might win the game and that some magical way it will hit on three or less. I would like to borrow that crystal ball. Present your case.
Let's see your reasonng.
Now let me see, McCoy handed OSU their asses in that 28-24 win in Austin. Ok. OSU beat Missouri so I think it was Daniels ass that was handled on that day. And in the other three matchups Harrell and Texas Tech coming off a landmark victory against Texas carry the momentum over and puts it to the Pokes, after which Bradford and Masoli stuck a fork in them too. Now which of those QB's are you comparing to Cox of Georgia.
Get real. Georgia may have a better defense than OSU but can their offense keep the ball away from the OSU offense long enough to get their defense some rest. OSU can and will score. I very seldom bet on OSU. I took them against Missouri, Baylor, and Texas LY. I went against them with Texas Tech and OU and did not bet the bowl game.
Despite being put on the defensive on here I am trying to make it very clear that I am not an OSU homer, never was, never will be. But if you live in Oklahoma and do not realize that OSU is a very competitive and capable team with a lot of key, point scoring, players returning and that Georgia has a lot of questions to answer on the road and on national TV.
I have not heard any logical support for you concentrating on why you think Georgia will prevail. In fact you talk like you think that OSU might win the game and that some magical way it will hit on three or less. I would like to borrow that crystal ball. Present your case.
Let's see your reasonng.
There is more history to it than that. Actually some bad blood of sorts that goes back a few months on this forum. I realize that verbal wars are useless but there are those on here who make comments and assumptions and never put forth reasons. GS is not one of these, I want to make that clear. But, I have put forth my reasoning and if it sounds passionate it is for other reasons than selling my point and less about a line. I know all about value. Texas Tech was +3 against OSU LY. Now that was value.
I bet on and against teams regularly looking for value. I have been studying this stuff since January looking specifically for week one games that I think have lines based on perception. This is one of them. Sorry you got dragged into this deal.
That is about as good a reason that could have possibly have been made for a play on Georgia. OSU took on those 5 QBs last year and how many out of the 5 did they actually beat? ONE!! And, why is that? Because Oklahoma State has been unable to show they have a good enough defense to be stopping quality teams. BUT, for some reason, because Oklahoma State has hired a new DC that everyone seems to recognize, all of a sudden they are going to have a defense that can stop good offenses.
So, Oklahoma State played against those 5 QBs last year and got their asses handed to them by 4 of them and this means that Joe Cox is going to have a long day in Stillwater. That is some amazing reasoning . . . .
I am an impartial observer on OSU. My observations are taken from one game so take with a grain of salt;
OSU's defense lacks toughness.
OSU's defenders are poor tacklers
OSU lacks a strong pass rush and that puts the secondary in jeopordy
It will be interesting to see if Young can get some immediate improvements. Some of their problems appear to be desire, and that can be improved on quickly with the right coaching.
Ducks
How you doing Ducks. Yes that was not one of their best efforts and Robinson and Bryant got banged up in that one. They do not have the kind of defense that can withstand too much exposure. When the OSU offense is doing their job (which they did not against Oregon in the second half) everything you mentioned gets exposed. The same is true of a lot of teams whose defense is not on the same level as their offense.
Coach Gundy has challenged the team about their lack of toughness in the Oregon game and it is a major focal point for 2009. Your observations are right on but I think that was just one of those days for OSU. Kind of like some people who only saw Oregon play against USC LY.
How you doing Ducks. Yes that was not one of their best efforts and Robinson and Bryant got banged up in that one. They do not have the kind of defense that can withstand too much exposure. When the OSU offense is doing their job (which they did not against Oregon in the second half) everything you mentioned gets exposed. The same is true of a lot of teams whose defense is not on the same level as their offense.
Coach Gundy has challenged the team about their lack of toughness in the Oregon game and it is a major focal point for 2009. Your observations are right on but I think that was just one of those days for OSU. Kind of like some people who only saw Oregon play against USC LY.
No doubt that he was hired out of necessity but he is a good fit. He had unexpected positive results with the Kansas defense. I am not selling him as an improvement so much as an alumnus who I think brings a lot to the table. He could indeed be a difference maker, but it could go either way. His history and resume speaks for itself. They key here is Georgia has an inexperienced QB on the road and even the Georgia coaches don't know what Young is going to throw at him. Young has an advantage in this one. Unless the Georgia OL can steamroll the OSU defense and slow down the game it may be a long hot day in Stillwater. OSU held Texas to 28 in Austin, if they hold Georgia to 28 or less they win this matchup in my opinion.
Putting the Georgia game aside, OSU's main problem last year was defensive depth. Tim Beckman was a great DC. He had some of the best defensive schemes and gameplans that I've seen from OSU in years. Especially in their games with Missouri and Texas. But this team simply ran out of gas by the time they got to Texas Tech. They couldn't deal with the 100 plays that TT threw at them. And OSU also couldn't cover the next week when they went to Colorado. They were a worn down defensive team by then. That's also why OU put up 61 on them. Their defensive depth obviously hurt them against Oregon. They might possibly had been able to outscore the Ducks if the Pokes 3 headed monster had stayed healthy. But it still didn't address their main problem, which was defensive depth. They'll have more of it this year. So if they have more defensive success the DC will get alot of the credit for it. But the bottom line is OSU will have more depth to sustain them unless they should incur more injuries, or more of their players are caught with weed this summer. The only question with the Pokes is if they can stop the really good physical teams. And we know who they are. The Pokes offense will get all of the publicity. But I'll still take a good defense over a good offense any day of the week.
Gs
The other side is how good will Georgia's offense be. If they can't throw then OSU can focus on the run. I talked about the balance of the OSU attack LY, it is scary to have those kind of numbers on either side of the ball much less together on the same team. Granted a lot of those yards were not against SEC type defenses, however, they are as good as any offense in the country. Georgia on the other hand, is an unkown quantity and to expect them to simply take up where they left off LY is out of the question. I would say very simply that OSU is a much better team now than the one Georgia beat in 2007 (35-14 at Georgia). That ironically was also a week one debut for both teams. That OSU team lost to S. Carolina the next week in Stillwater and went on to win their next 8 out of 9. I see pretty much the same scenario but this time for Georgia. I think it is too much to ask of them (just like it was of OSU in 2007) to come into Stillwater under these conditions but I can see them rallying back and kicking ass just like OSU did following their loss in 2007. I see a parallel in these two home and away scenarios. I am judging the two teams on how they match up on a given day and and I am choosing to back one over the other based on many factors. That is what handicapping is all about.
The other side is how good will Georgia's offense be. If they can't throw then OSU can focus on the run. I talked about the balance of the OSU attack LY, it is scary to have those kind of numbers on either side of the ball much less together on the same team. Granted a lot of those yards were not against SEC type defenses, however, they are as good as any offense in the country. Georgia on the other hand, is an unkown quantity and to expect them to simply take up where they left off LY is out of the question. I would say very simply that OSU is a much better team now than the one Georgia beat in 2007 (35-14 at Georgia). That ironically was also a week one debut for both teams. That OSU team lost to S. Carolina the next week in Stillwater and went on to win their next 8 out of 9. I see pretty much the same scenario but this time for Georgia. I think it is too much to ask of them (just like it was of OSU in 2007) to come into Stillwater under these conditions but I can see them rallying back and kicking ass just like OSU did following their loss in 2007. I see a parallel in these two home and away scenarios. I am judging the two teams on how they match up on a given day and and I am choosing to back one over the other based on many factors. That is what handicapping is all about.
