i'll never see this level of volatility in my life again, obvuisly a black swam event has arrived and add the soulless Saudi's to add fuel to the fire. Can you imagine the margin calls out there?
technical damage done today.
oil down another 17% is XOM streak of over 30 yrs of increased dividends all but done?
copper down 7 %
reits- HAMMERED
if recent trend is to continue then tomorrow calls for an up day, LOL. Keeping positions overnight is nuts, doesnt matter what asset......
market halts overnight ;
over .5 -170
under .5 +150
whatcha got?
technical damage done today.
oil down another 17% is XOM streak of over 30 yrs of increased dividends all but done?
copper down 7 %
reits- HAMMERED
if recent trend is to continue then tomorrow calls for an up day, LOL. Keeping positions overnight is nuts, doesnt matter what asset......
market halts overnight ;
over .5 -170
under .5 +150
whatcha got?
credit rating cut on Boeing, freefall down 25% today....govt going to have to save their ass?
BA
6 mth daily
okay, Jan 1 2020 some guy serving you coffee at Starbucks see's you with the Financial Times, and says ; 'careful with Boeing, come late March it will be under $100..
what kind of look do you give that guy?
BA
6 mth daily
okay, Jan 1 2020 some guy serving you coffee at Starbucks see's you with the Financial Times, and says ; 'careful with Boeing, come late March it will be under $100..
what kind of look do you give that guy?
Ackman is propping up his position with "numbers" according to him.
Then he says to "assume it (coronavirus) has a 1/50 chance of killing your child". Huh? What numbers project that?
He wants a world lockdown for a month.
I want (and have from the beginning) to go about business as usual and let people get sick, do what they normally do when they get sick with a cold or the flu, and keep the wheels of production turning.
Yes there will be casualties. Just like there are casualties annually with the flu. There will be coronavirus casualties when a coronavirus vaccine is developed, just like there are flu casualties despite having a flu vaccine for years.
Our policymakers are making decisions that will "kill" the society and many of the people who make it up for years. One doesn't need to die to be "killed".
Then he says to "assume it (coronavirus) has a 1/50 chance of killing your child". Huh? What numbers project that?
He wants a world lockdown for a month.
I want (and have from the beginning) to go about business as usual and let people get sick, do what they normally do when they get sick with a cold or the flu, and keep the wheels of production turning.
Yes there will be casualties. Just like there are casualties annually with the flu. There will be coronavirus casualties when a coronavirus vaccine is developed, just like there are flu casualties despite having a flu vaccine for years.
Our policymakers are making decisions that will "kill" the society and many of the people who make it up for years. One doesn't need to die to be "killed".
[h=1]March 2020 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey[/h][FONT="]Manufacturing firms reported a significant weakening in regional manufacturing activity this month, according to results from the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments fell precipitously this month, coinciding with developments related to the coronavirus. The firms reported a slight overall increase in employment, however, and a near-steady workweek. The broadest indicator of future activity weakened somewhat but remained elevated; however, firms still expect overall growth in new orders, shipments, and employment over the next six months.[/FONT]
[h=2]Firms Report Decreases in New Orders[/h][FONT="]The diffusion index for current activity declined markedly from a three-year high reading of 36.7 in February to -12.7 this month, its lowest reading since July 2012 (see Chart 1). The percentage of firms reporting decreases (30 percent) this month exceeded the percentage reporting increases (18 percent). The index for new orders also turned negative, falling from 33.6 to -15.5. The current shipments index fell 25 points but remained slightly positive, although its current reading near zero suggests overall shipments were unchanged from February. Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes moved into negative territory this month, falling 15 points and 12 points, respectively.[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]The firms reported an overall slight increase in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index decreased 6 points to 4.1, its lowest reading since November 2016. The average workweek index fell 10 points but remained slightly positive at 0.5.[/FONT]
[h=2]Firms Report Lower Price Pressures[/h][FONT="]The firms reported moderating price pressures for inputs and for their own manufactured goods. The prices paid diffusion index decreased 12 points to 4.8 (see Chart 2). The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (18 percent) was only slightly higher than the percentage reporting decreases (14 percent). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, declined 10 points to a reading of 6.8.[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[h=2]Most Future Indicators Moderated[/h][FONT="]The diffusion index for future general activity fell 10 points to 35.2 but remained at a relatively high reading (see Chart 1). Nearly 51 percent of the firms expect increases in activity over the next six months, while 16 percent expect declines. The future new orders and shipments indexes also decreased this month, by 17 points and 10 points, respectively. The firms expect their inventories to rise over the next six months, as the future inventories index rose 7 points to a reading of 16.9.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The firms’ expectations for future prices fell notably this month: The future prices paid index fell 14 points, and the future prices received index fell 16 points.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The firms’ expectations for employment over the next six months strengthened somewhat with the future employment index increasing 6 points. Over 30 percent of the firms expected higher employment, about the same as in February. Only 1 percent expected lower employment, down from February. The firms’ plans for future capital spending showed notable weakening this month: The future capital spending index decreased nearly 18 points to a reading of 12.0, its lowest reading since September 2016.[/FONT]
[h=2]Summary[/h][FONT="]Responses to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated a notable weakening in manufacturing activity. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments decreased markedly from their readings in February. The survey’s current employment and workweek indexes remained positive but also moderated. Both prices paid and prices received indexes reflected easing price pressures. The survey’s future indexes suggest that respondents expect declines to be short-lived, inasmuch as they continue to expect growth in manufacturing activity over a horizon of six months.[/FONT]
[h=2]Firms Report Decreases in New Orders[/h][FONT="]The diffusion index for current activity declined markedly from a three-year high reading of 36.7 in February to -12.7 this month, its lowest reading since July 2012 (see Chart 1). The percentage of firms reporting decreases (30 percent) this month exceeded the percentage reporting increases (18 percent). The index for new orders also turned negative, falling from 33.6 to -15.5. The current shipments index fell 25 points but remained slightly positive, although its current reading near zero suggests overall shipments were unchanged from February. Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes moved into negative territory this month, falling 15 points and 12 points, respectively.[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[FONT="]The firms reported an overall slight increase in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index decreased 6 points to 4.1, its lowest reading since November 2016. The average workweek index fell 10 points but remained slightly positive at 0.5.[/FONT]
[h=2]Firms Report Lower Price Pressures[/h][FONT="]The firms reported moderating price pressures for inputs and for their own manufactured goods. The prices paid diffusion index decreased 12 points to 4.8 (see Chart 2). The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (18 percent) was only slightly higher than the percentage reporting decreases (14 percent). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, declined 10 points to a reading of 6.8.[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[h=2]Most Future Indicators Moderated[/h][FONT="]The diffusion index for future general activity fell 10 points to 35.2 but remained at a relatively high reading (see Chart 1). Nearly 51 percent of the firms expect increases in activity over the next six months, while 16 percent expect declines. The future new orders and shipments indexes also decreased this month, by 17 points and 10 points, respectively. The firms expect their inventories to rise over the next six months, as the future inventories index rose 7 points to a reading of 16.9.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The firms’ expectations for future prices fell notably this month: The future prices paid index fell 14 points, and the future prices received index fell 16 points.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The firms’ expectations for employment over the next six months strengthened somewhat with the future employment index increasing 6 points. Over 30 percent of the firms expected higher employment, about the same as in February. Only 1 percent expected lower employment, down from February. The firms’ plans for future capital spending showed notable weakening this month: The future capital spending index decreased nearly 18 points to a reading of 12.0, its lowest reading since September 2016.[/FONT]
[h=2]Summary[/h][FONT="]Responses to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated a notable weakening in manufacturing activity. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments decreased markedly from their readings in February. The survey’s current employment and workweek indexes remained positive but also moderated. Both prices paid and prices received indexes reflected easing price pressures. The survey’s future indexes suggest that respondents expect declines to be short-lived, inasmuch as they continue to expect growth in manufacturing activity over a horizon of six months.[/FONT]
VIX just doesnt want to lose its 8 ema. It's hanging around at a ceiling, 4 days now and cant break it...something has to give.
bad news over the next few days about exponential rise in cases and it may break the ceiling. If it loses its 8 ema, different story. Markets trying to base here...with the qqq's at the forefront
also USD is another fear gauge , stupid gap up but a very bearish candle forming on it
the day is young
bad news over the next few days about exponential rise in cases and it may break the ceiling. If it loses its 8 ema, different story. Markets trying to base here...with the qqq's at the forefront
also USD is another fear gauge , stupid gap up but a very bearish candle forming on it
the day is young
I have been saying for some time......just tell the truth.....how hard can that be.
By not doing so it just makes the matters worse.
I just sent a text to my buddy saying I have the urge to buy today.....I told him to talk me off the cliff.
When I step back though....I think I am more a pawn in a chess game. The guys behind the pawns consider them disposable and can be easy casualties. That is what worries me. Looking at it from a pawns standpoint and not from the back row....I think the battle is just starting and my gut says there is still way more downside risk. I think the S&P is going below 2,000.
Too many companies saying they need bailouts and too many people are going to have financial problems. You cant bail everybody out. How do you decide who you bail out. Sorry but cruise ships and casinos are not a priority. We need airlines.
Everyday it seems like more half truths with the government press conferences. Just a joke.
I agree with you. There is a lot more hell to pay in the economy, in the markets, and in the kitchens of many millions of Americans.
But what "truth" are you not getting at the daily (sometimes twice daily) White House press conferences?
They are managing this thing on the fly. EVERYTHING is a moving target. There was no ramp up period. The Government cannot solve all issues for all of our lives with one swipe of a glittering wand. The CDC and HHS are government agencies. They are showing us how cumbersome and unprepared they are for this virus. Did you expect anything different?
If you are paying attention to all the press conferences (I've watched most either in real time or video) you would know that the White House is reacting to the virus and the information that is currently available (in this country and in other countries) about the virus and its spread. There is no textbook to pull out to get answers to the occurring or expected problems. Heck, we're not even clear about what problems are expected from the virus.
In the mean time the approach for dealing with this, pretty much sanctioned by all levels of Government from local to Federal, is shutdowns. The degrees vary from town to town and state to state.
I have said many times on this board that they will / are creat(ing) many more VERY serious problems than they are correcting. The domino effect has just begun. Wait a month or three. Like I said above, things are not static. They are moving and moving fast.
Our job as investors is to discern where we can advantage from the moving information. Don't expect a roadmap or blame the people at the White House. This is the most complicated situation we will ever witness in our lifetimes. The answers are not apparent or easy. That is precisely why the markets are so volatile. Don't blame the White House unless you can tell us what they can do better to attack the problems.
My position has always been to let the virus take it's natural course. But save the economy. That is save businesses, jobs, and portfolios. There are a few others here who share that position but we do so under derision.
Think for yourself (or us collectively) because the answers are just not apparent.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/oil...-rebounding-from-wednesdays-steep-losses.html
One person’s opinion is “snap back of a historic oversold condition in WTI”
The "no buybacks with bailouts" stance is really picking up steam. Trump just said he could agree with that.
How about this? Just don't bail companies out then, let the bondholders/stockholders take the bath and then the companies won't lever up with debt/buybacks in the future.
Putting in a condition on a private business for the next 5 to 50 years is obviously stupid. If you can't spend your money how you want then that we're lying to ourselves by saying we still have capitalism.
Also, as long as they know the fed has their back, they will just find other ways to be fiscally imprudent.
How about this? Just don't bail companies out then, let the bondholders/stockholders take the bath and then the companies won't lever up with debt/buybacks in the future.
Putting in a condition on a private business for the next 5 to 50 years is obviously stupid. If you can't spend your money how you want then that we're lying to ourselves by saying we still have capitalism.
Also, as long as they know the fed has their back, they will just find other ways to be fiscally imprudent.
I think the bigger you are the less nimble you are. Federal government fits this description. For the most part every press conference the President paints a picture than sounds where better than reality.
As we get to smaller government like the states I think they are smaller and more nimble.
Let me give you an example: Trump maybe a week or so said anyone who wants a test can get the test. He keeps saying the same thing.
Yesterday the governor of our state had a press conference and said I dont care what the president said it is wrong. We cant get test kits and we currently cant get 1,700 test processed because they dont have the supplies to finish the test.
Another example is the availability of mask. Just say there are not enough and we are doing everything possible to increase that so you wont here some hospital saying they cant gets masks. On the masks. The government has a stock pile of those in storage. Why not say we are going to issue 1/2 of those the the areas with the highest infections right now and replace them as the supply increases.
Lastly until about two days ago Trump downplayed the virus and called it a hoax at a rally about a month ago.....then yesterday he started saying he knew all along it was going to be a panademic problem. If you knew why didn't you take simple actions like getting masks and ventilators made.
The test itself has been a disaster. I looked up the company making ventilators thinking investment. They have 25 employees. How many can they possible make in a month or two? Not like they are 3m making masks. The list goes on. Local news has report after report that there are not medical equipment or test available.
If Washington will have a million mask for their hospitals on Friday...say Friday and meet the schedule. Dont say Friday and it is a month later.
Things are changing quickly and you wont make all good decisions. Just tell it like it is. Today again at his press conference his big ass ego felt bruised. He blamed the states. Are you kidding me. If there were ventilators, masks and other supplies to be bought we have a billion surplus.....our state could write the check and would.
I told a coworker 3 years ago (and he is a republican although that shouldnt matter). I said Trump has for his whole life been an egotistical liar. The problem with that is that if something really important were to happen and he stands in front of you and tells you something.....you wont know if he is telling the truth based on his past. That guy came up to me Friday and reminded me of what I said. He said it is so true. I have no trust in anything he says.
Done with my rant...feel a little better....I believe our governor or when other governors speak that they are telling me the truth....I dont believe our President.
Pending bailouts....
- $60B for aerospace/trucking industry (big portion will go toward BA/GE)
- $150B for 'ailing industry' (not sure how they define - ailing), we can only assume airline/cruiseline/hotel/shale oil because Trump repeatedly mentioned them in the press.
- $500B direct payment to small businesses and American, $1200/adult, $500/child ($ will phase out from $75K AGI threshold) and other supplement/extend unemployment benefits.
The deal is expected to finalize by next Friday (they likely to drag it until following Mon to prevent another bloodbath).
- $60B for aerospace/trucking industry (big portion will go toward BA/GE)
- $150B for 'ailing industry' (not sure how they define - ailing), we can only assume airline/cruiseline/hotel/shale oil because Trump repeatedly mentioned them in the press.
- $500B direct payment to small businesses and American, $1200/adult, $500/child ($ will phase out from $75K AGI threshold) and other supplement/extend unemployment benefits.
The deal is expected to finalize by next Friday (they likely to drag it until following Mon to prevent another bloodbath).
