I said when the thread started that will be 10-15T when all debt monetization from this is done. Probably within a year to 18 months.
Are we really confident that goes off w/o a hitch this time around? It was inevitable with or without the virus, but now that it is here I do wonder what all the ramifications are. It really has no historical precedent in modern times.
Initially, they're planning to vote on 3/26/20, given the magnitude of the selloff last week, they're pushing to Mon. We'll see if $2T rescue package is big enough to stop the bleeding. We're 7 days in for CDC 2-wk social distance recommendation, the 'curve' is climbing. Very likely, they're extending it to months. The market will probably surge on Mon - but I still feel like a 'bull trap', it could make a lower low once 'stimulus' news fading away.
The Fed pulls out all the tools trying to stop the market from falling apart. They re-opened Primary Dealer Credit Facility last Tue - it's a big deal. Major banks in the US/Europe can put up just about anything as collateral to get access to Fed US$ for 90 days w/ very low interest. It's a Bernanke signature 'pawn shop', even with that, the market didn't bottom until 4 months later.
The Fed pulls out all the tools trying to stop the market from falling apart. They re-opened Primary Dealer Credit Facility last Tue - it's a big deal. Major banks in the US/Europe can put up just about anything as collateral to get access to Fed US$ for 90 days w/ very low interest. It's a Bernanke signature 'pawn shop', even with that, the market didn't bottom until 4 months later.
DC gangs are trying to bully insurers to pay for small businesses loss of income due to shut-down, our rep told them to go fuck themselves. They're now threatening to take all P&C insurers to court. Go right ahead.
This is the government mandate economy crash, they're forcing insurers to carry the bags. We're not fucking paying. Period. End of story.
This is the government mandate economy crash, they're forcing insurers to carry the bags. We're not fucking paying. Period. End of story.
Market has given every other announcement of gov't action the finger very shortly thereafter. I do agree there is a nice bounce coming after the stimulus passes sometime next week. I'm going to try to time it w/ triple bull trade.
After that, I think we have much lower to go though. S&P 1500 is in play unless the virus ends up fading which is possible, 95% of Americans just have no clue how structurally unsound and propped up the economy has been for a long time.
After that, I think we have much lower to go though. S&P 1500 is in play unless the virus ends up fading which is possible, 95% of Americans just have no clue how structurally unsound and propped up the economy has been for a long time.
Mnuchin is doubling it - up to $4T. Everyone wants it to be a 'GRANT' - not loan, and rightly so. This is the government is asking everyone to stay home so they have to pay.
We enter a whole new ball game. Every risk-management models are being throw out of the window. The government now can set a timer on the economy. Problem is no one would know when they hit 'pause' button except the insiders/dealers and they will front-running everyone else when that happens.
We enter a whole new ball game. Every risk-management models are being throw out of the window. The government now can set a timer on the economy. Problem is no one would know when they hit 'pause' button except the insiders/dealers and they will front-running everyone else when that happens.
Administration initial bill seemed loaded with giving some of the bailed out companies pretty much everything they want. Some Dems, GOP saying not so fast on that so back to the drawing board.
Obviously the compromise is just going to be more spending rather than less. They went from 800B to 4T pretty damn fast.
Obviously the compromise is just going to be more spending rather than less. They went from 800B to 4T pretty damn fast.
SmallDaddy if you listened to Peter Schiff or others that articulate the benefits of Austrian economic theory, you would understand the benefits of sound money in situations like this.
So a bunch of bureaucrats that don't care about anything but the short-term can't just do whatever the hell they want.
But I don't want to politard up the thread.
So a bunch of bureaucrats that don't care about anything but the short-term can't just do whatever the hell they want.
But I don't want to politard up the thread.
The dust will settle...in time......
- a stimulus package doesnt mean people r headed back to work, as everyone knows
SPY
1 decade monthly
SPY 210 , major level of support , levels r levels. , .Need that VIX way way down . ...unitl then....................canned tuna, peanut butter, water.........
treatment drug, and/or sending people back to work (very short stoppage) would be game changers , sending the VIX spiralling downward....... Longer this shutdown uglier things get (job losses). Kinda that simple, for me at least......
- a stimulus package doesnt mean people r headed back to work, as everyone knows
SPY
1 decade monthly
SPY 210 , major level of support , levels r levels. , .Need that VIX way way down . ...unitl then....................canned tuna, peanut butter, water.........
treatment drug, and/or sending people back to work (very short stoppage) would be game changers , sending the VIX spiralling downward....... Longer this shutdown uglier things get (job losses). Kinda that simple, for me at least......
