<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by oldmanTED:
Winky:
Congratulations on another very solid selection on Texas yesterday. Truly believe that your write-up was very influential in that 80 cent line movement yesterday, as you were mentioned on other sites as being very strong on the play. Take pride as you are surely respected by many, not only here but elsewhere.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
***thanks - i had no clue about this. if you don't mind me asking - which sites? if you can't say here - send me an e-mail and let me know. i'd love to think i was responsible for the line move - but know i wasn't. i was not the only one smart enough to know this line was a joke. in an e-mail dave cokin sent me, he said he made texass -180 and said the line at -140/-150ish was a joke. if cokin knew that - i know others did, too. i had nothing to do with texass going from -125 to -250 to win its bracket - just once again the ability of good cappers to see a bad line and pound it.
NOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
as for monday's fullerton/miami game:
i want to bet against BOTH of these pitchers. miami's starter J.D. Cockroft has gotten lit up by the 4 teams he faced this season that
made the post-season:
North Carolina - 6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
Long Beach - 7 1/3 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Florida Atlantic - 6 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
(regional)
Florida - 5 1/3 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K (super
regional)
Totals - 24 2/3 IP, 32 H, 17 R, 17 ER, 10 BB, 14K,
6.20 ERA, .308 BA, .368 OBP
i don't want any part of this - but as well as i know fullerton - i DON'T like this spot here for us.
our starter ricky romero was not very effective in his L2 starts against pepperdine and tulane and this makes sense when you break it down.
all season long (or at least in conference play) romero has followed windsor in the rotation. teams see windsor on friday - romero on saturday. the 2 are different pitchers and therefore romero gets a break in that teams are still feeling the effects of facing windsor on friday when they face romero saturday. think about it this way. with the bosox, if schilling pitches friday and then wakefield saturday - because wakefield is so different - teams are baffled by him because of the change in styles. then follow up with pedro sunday and teams are even worse. saturday they faced the knuckler and now they get heat and they aren't able to adjust.
windsor pitched against USC saturday and NOT miami. the miami hitters now don't have to make an adjustment between windsor and romero - for they never faced windsor in their last game. because of this - romero's style of pitching won't be as baffling to them because windsor didn't mess them up the last game.
when fullerton scores 9 or more runs we are something like 27-0 but when we score less than 9 runs we are like 14-21, but this is also misleading. of those 14 wins, many were with windsor pitching and as we saw saturday - when he pitches, 5 runs is MANY more than he needs. windsor (sadly) is not pitching tonite - and if we score less than 9 runs, as you can see - that is not good for us. one of our problems all season long is getting hits with RISP. saturday we sucked at it but got away with thanks to our pitcher. against the crimicanes we can't do that and get away with it. based on a SEASON long trend, the chances of us increasing our RISP average ain't very good. we also don't fare well with lefties - and miami's sked pitcher is a leftie.
if the fullerton/miami game comes down to the bullpen (and i think it might for romero is not the kind of pitcher with a lot left in his arm late in the game) - JUMP on miami. our bullpen SUCKS! we have FOUR saves all season long - and countless more blown ones. there is no chad cordero (closer for us last year and now it for the expos) in the pen. ryan schroyer wanted to transfer from ASU to fullerton, but since pat murphy is a prick, he wouldn't allow it - so schroyer went to SDSU. the fulleton coaches have ZERO confidence in the pen - which is why windsor throws so many pitches as do the starters. the coaches will stick with romero as long as they humanly can - while jim morris WON'T. i sense this will lead to romero making a few mistakes on pitches he wouldn't normally throw because he was in the game when he shouldn't have been.
make me bet this game i probably take Miami -125 but as i said - i want to bet against both teams - so i will pass on it completely. i also don't want to have a situation where i am upset if we win because i lost money on the game.
i will say if you can find a total this looks like it could be a higher scoring game than usual. won't shock me to see at least 12 runs scored (not sure if that is high scoring or not in college) and if we get to about 14 or more - again - won't shock me.
if anyone knows of books that hang totals - please chime in so i can know for the future.
Winky:
Congratulations on another very solid selection on Texas yesterday. Truly believe that your write-up was very influential in that 80 cent line movement yesterday, as you were mentioned on other sites as being very strong on the play. Take pride as you are surely respected by many, not only here but elsewhere.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
***thanks - i had no clue about this. if you don't mind me asking - which sites? if you can't say here - send me an e-mail and let me know. i'd love to think i was responsible for the line move - but know i wasn't. i was not the only one smart enough to know this line was a joke. in an e-mail dave cokin sent me, he said he made texass -180 and said the line at -140/-150ish was a joke. if cokin knew that - i know others did, too. i had nothing to do with texass going from -125 to -250 to win its bracket - just once again the ability of good cappers to see a bad line and pound it.
NOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
as for monday's fullerton/miami game:
i want to bet against BOTH of these pitchers. miami's starter J.D. Cockroft has gotten lit up by the 4 teams he faced this season that
made the post-season:
North Carolina - 6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
Long Beach - 7 1/3 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Florida Atlantic - 6 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
(regional)
Florida - 5 1/3 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K (super
regional)
Totals - 24 2/3 IP, 32 H, 17 R, 17 ER, 10 BB, 14K,
6.20 ERA, .308 BA, .368 OBP
i don't want any part of this - but as well as i know fullerton - i DON'T like this spot here for us.
our starter ricky romero was not very effective in his L2 starts against pepperdine and tulane and this makes sense when you break it down.
all season long (or at least in conference play) romero has followed windsor in the rotation. teams see windsor on friday - romero on saturday. the 2 are different pitchers and therefore romero gets a break in that teams are still feeling the effects of facing windsor on friday when they face romero saturday. think about it this way. with the bosox, if schilling pitches friday and then wakefield saturday - because wakefield is so different - teams are baffled by him because of the change in styles. then follow up with pedro sunday and teams are even worse. saturday they faced the knuckler and now they get heat and they aren't able to adjust.
windsor pitched against USC saturday and NOT miami. the miami hitters now don't have to make an adjustment between windsor and romero - for they never faced windsor in their last game. because of this - romero's style of pitching won't be as baffling to them because windsor didn't mess them up the last game.
when fullerton scores 9 or more runs we are something like 27-0 but when we score less than 9 runs we are like 14-21, but this is also misleading. of those 14 wins, many were with windsor pitching and as we saw saturday - when he pitches, 5 runs is MANY more than he needs. windsor (sadly) is not pitching tonite - and if we score less than 9 runs, as you can see - that is not good for us. one of our problems all season long is getting hits with RISP. saturday we sucked at it but got away with thanks to our pitcher. against the crimicanes we can't do that and get away with it. based on a SEASON long trend, the chances of us increasing our RISP average ain't very good. we also don't fare well with lefties - and miami's sked pitcher is a leftie.
if the fullerton/miami game comes down to the bullpen (and i think it might for romero is not the kind of pitcher with a lot left in his arm late in the game) - JUMP on miami. our bullpen SUCKS! we have FOUR saves all season long - and countless more blown ones. there is no chad cordero (closer for us last year and now it for the expos) in the pen. ryan schroyer wanted to transfer from ASU to fullerton, but since pat murphy is a prick, he wouldn't allow it - so schroyer went to SDSU. the fulleton coaches have ZERO confidence in the pen - which is why windsor throws so many pitches as do the starters. the coaches will stick with romero as long as they humanly can - while jim morris WON'T. i sense this will lead to romero making a few mistakes on pitches he wouldn't normally throw because he was in the game when he shouldn't have been.
make me bet this game i probably take Miami -125 but as i said - i want to bet against both teams - so i will pass on it completely. i also don't want to have a situation where i am upset if we win because i lost money on the game.
i will say if you can find a total this looks like it could be a higher scoring game than usual. won't shock me to see at least 12 runs scored (not sure if that is high scoring or not in college) and if we get to about 14 or more - again - won't shock me.
if anyone knows of books that hang totals - please chime in so i can know for the future.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jacksorbetter:
5 Dimes has it 11 1/2 under -20.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
make me bet this one and the ONLY way i would is OVER 11.5
i checked the weather report and the forecast is for good weather and that is bad for fullerton. the heavier the air - the better it is because balls don't go as far. the warmer it is - the worse it is because balls will go further. a 6P (local time) start means about 2 hours of warm air.
again - the ONLY way i'd play this one is OVER 11.5 based on both pitcher's lack of success is getting batters out in the post-season and against quality teams.
5 Dimes has it 11 1/2 under -20.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
make me bet this one and the ONLY way i would is OVER 11.5
i checked the weather report and the forecast is for good weather and that is bad for fullerton. the heavier the air - the better it is because balls don't go as far. the warmer it is - the worse it is because balls will go further. a 6P (local time) start means about 2 hours of warm air.
again - the ONLY way i'd play this one is OVER 11.5 based on both pitcher's lack of success is getting batters out in the post-season and against quality teams.
thanks winky,i always respect your opinion
Winky:
Congratulations on today's win on South Carolina and thanks for your analysis of the CS Fullerton/Miami game. Decided to wait late before making any play on the game and stuck with the Titans and was able to land +135. So far 5-0 in the series following your thread with the Titans pending. Last, please check your e-mail as I responded to your inquiry. Continued best wishes throughout the series.
Congratulations on today's win on South Carolina and thanks for your analysis of the CS Fullerton/Miami game. Decided to wait late before making any play on the game and stuck with the Titans and was able to land +135. So far 5-0 in the series following your thread with the Titans pending. Last, please check your e-mail as I responded to your inquiry. Continued best wishes throughout the series.
Omaha Picks Recap: 8-1 (+14.90 units)
Texass -125 to win its bracket: TBD
Texass +250 to win the CWS: TBD
LSU +190 to be 1st team eliminated from its bracket: Winner (+1.90 units)
Arkansas +200 to be 1st team eliminated from its bracket: Winner (+2.00 units)
6/19: Team to lead after the first 4.5 innings - Cal State Fullerton -130: Winner (+1.00 units)
6/19: Fullerton +115 (2 unit play): Winner (+2.30 units)
6/19: Miami -130: Winner (+1.00 units)
6/18-19: 3-Teamer: Texas -205/Miami -130/Fullerton +115: Winner (+4.65 units)
6/18-19: 3-Teamer: texas -205/Miami -130/USC -135: Loser (-1.00 units - and for making this dumb bet i deserve to lose it!)
6/20: (2004 CWS GOY) Texass -150 (2 unit play): Winner (+2.00 units)
6/21: South Carolina -130: Winner (+1.00 units)
before the start of Omaha i posted i wanted to win a minimum of 6 units - never dreaming i would get this hot. even i can't believe it!
i am also ecstatic my titans are 1 win away from the champ series - although they were in this position LY and lost 2 in a row to the stanford trees and never made it.
as for tuesday, i only see a line for AZ/GA, so i can only make 1 pick so far.
from the very beginning i said the SEC was a fraud and so far i am right. they are 1-5 in games in which they play someone other than an SEC team.
in the 1st game in Omaha these 2 met and AZ tossed the ball all over rosenblatt and gave away a 8-7 game to UGA. looking back on it - i think the Cats were nervous. they are no longer nervous and playing with confidence.
how am i supposed to lay over -150 on a conference that has ONE win over schools from anyone other than the SEC? sorry - i can't!
i have been very successful fading the SEC so why stop now. arizona might not win - but at this price - they are the ONLY side to play
Arizona +135 (solely because i refuse to bet ON an SEC school until shown a reason to do so)
Texass -125 to win its bracket: TBD
Texass +250 to win the CWS: TBD
LSU +190 to be 1st team eliminated from its bracket: Winner (+1.90 units)
Arkansas +200 to be 1st team eliminated from its bracket: Winner (+2.00 units)
6/19: Team to lead after the first 4.5 innings - Cal State Fullerton -130: Winner (+1.00 units)
6/19: Fullerton +115 (2 unit play): Winner (+2.30 units)
6/19: Miami -130: Winner (+1.00 units)
6/18-19: 3-Teamer: Texas -205/Miami -130/Fullerton +115: Winner (+4.65 units)
6/18-19: 3-Teamer: texas -205/Miami -130/USC -135: Loser (-1.00 units - and for making this dumb bet i deserve to lose it!)
6/20: (2004 CWS GOY) Texass -150 (2 unit play): Winner (+2.00 units)
6/21: South Carolina -130: Winner (+1.00 units)
before the start of Omaha i posted i wanted to win a minimum of 6 units - never dreaming i would get this hot. even i can't believe it!
i am also ecstatic my titans are 1 win away from the champ series - although they were in this position LY and lost 2 in a row to the stanford trees and never made it.
as for tuesday, i only see a line for AZ/GA, so i can only make 1 pick so far.
from the very beginning i said the SEC was a fraud and so far i am right. they are 1-5 in games in which they play someone other than an SEC team.
in the 1st game in Omaha these 2 met and AZ tossed the ball all over rosenblatt and gave away a 8-7 game to UGA. looking back on it - i think the Cats were nervous. they are no longer nervous and playing with confidence.
how am i supposed to lay over -150 on a conference that has ONE win over schools from anyone other than the SEC? sorry - i can't!
i have been very successful fading the SEC so why stop now. arizona might not win - but at this price - they are the ONLY side to play
Arizona +135 (solely because i refuse to bet ON an SEC school until shown a reason to do so)
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by ppeter:
Line move is due to HUGE pitching advantage (on paper) for UGA
from NY Reb
Georgia: Michael Hyle 7-2 3.10 ERA
Arizona: Kevin Guyette 6-7 6.57 ERA
But who am I to buck the power of the DUCK?
Arizona it is. Thanks Winky!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Line move is due to HUGE pitching advantage (on paper) for UGA
from NY Reb
Georgia: Michael Hyle 7-2 3.10 ERA
Arizona: Kevin Guyette 6-7 6.57 ERA
But who am I to buck the power of the DUCK?
Arizona it is. Thanks Winky!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
