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[CNOTES]

Bad Company - Week 12


November 11, 2014


Only four weeks remain in the college football regular season as plenty of teams are becoming bowl eligible by the week. However, a bunch of squads are looking ahead to the offseason and getting through the next month of play. We’ll take a look at the teams to fade on the college gridiron heading into Week 12.


Eastern Michigan (+25 ½) at Western Michigan – 2:00 PM EST


Western Michigan won just one game last season, but the Broncos are close to bowl eligibility with a 6-3 record while riding a four-game winning streak. The Broncos have been one of the best ATS teams in the country at 8-1 ATS, with the lone ATS defeat coming in the opener in late August at Purdue. Western hasn’t been a favorite of this size since 2012 against UMass, blowing out the Minutemen, 52-14 as 17-point favorites.


Eastern Michigan owns a 2-7 record this season, trying to avoid its fourth 2-10 mark since 2010. The Eagles have been up and down from an ATS perspective, posting a 3-2 ATS ledger the past five games, while covering twice as a road underdog of least 20 points this season. EMU has actually beaten Western Michigan in each of the past three meetings, including a 35-32 victory in overtime last season.


Indiana (+8) at Rutgers – 3:30 PM EST


The Hoosiers upset Missouri back in mid-September, but Indiana has struggled with key injuries since that road victory by going 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS the past six games. Since quarterback Nate Sudfeld suffered a shoulder injury in October against Iowa, the Hoosiers have amassed just 34 points in three losses to Michigan State, Michigan, and Penn State. Since the start of last season, IU has put up a 3-7-1 ATS record as an underdog, as the lone push came in last week’s six-point setback to Penn State.


Rutgers showed promise with a 5-1 start to the season, but enter Saturday’s play on a three-game losing streak following double-digit defeats to Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. The Scarlet Knights allowed 298 rushing yards to the Badgers, 292 rushing yards to the Cornhuskers, and 324 yards on the ground to the Buckeyes. Indiana has rushed for at least 153 yards in each of the past three losses, so we’ll see if the Hoosiers depend on the ground game to exploit Rutgers’ struggling defense.


Hawaii (+10 ½) at San Jose State – 4:30 PM EST


The Warriors have dropped six of their past seven games, while covering one time since the end of September. Hawaii looks to end a three-game skid after getting blown out at Colorado State as 21-point underdogs, 49-22, its fourth consecutive Mountain West defeat. Last season, Hawaii covered four of six times on the road. This season, the Warriors have limped to an 0-3-1 ATS record on the highway, while scoring more than 14 points on the road just once.


San Jose State is in the midst of a three-game losing streak, while allowing at least 38 points in each defeat during this stretch. The Spartans have covered in each of their two tries in the home favorite role, including a 33-10 blowout of UNLV as an 8 ½-point favorite. That is in stark contrast to the 2-7 ATS mark the Spartans owned as a home favorite from 2011-2013, but San Jose State has won each of the past two meetings against Hawaii since 2011.


Troy (+5 ½) at Idaho – 5:00 PM EST


This is no doubt the ugliest matchup of the weekend as these two Sun Belt foes have combined for a 3-16 record. Troy is actually coming off its second victory of the season, routing Georgia State, 45-21 as seven-point favorites, while rushing for 324 yards in the win. Both Troy and Idaho have a victory over a common opponent, beating New Mexico State. The Trojans are just 1-3 ATS this season off a cover, while being outgained in all seven losses.


Idaho has covered three straight games, but the last two ATS wins came as an underdog of at least 16 ½ points against Arkansas State and San Diego State. The Vandals have cashed in just three of their past 13 opportunities in the favorite role dating back to 2010, which includes the 29-17 win over New Mexico State last month. In their eight losses this season, Idaho has given up at least 34 points, while allowing this many points in 27 of their past 28 defeats.


SMU (+11) vs. South Florida – 8:00 PM EST


The usual suspect on this list every week seems to be SMU, who has yet to win a game in eight tries this season. The Mustangs managed a cover as 14-point underdogs at Tulsa in a 38-28 loss last week, marking just the second ATS win in eight opportunities. SMU has given up at least 38 points in each game this season, while busting the 10-point mark only twice, which came in the ATS covers against Tulsa and East Carolina.


USF is laying more than a field goal for only the second time this season, as the Bulls look to rebound off consecutive losses to Cincinnati and Houston. The Bulls are 4-2 ATS the past six contests, but have won just twice in six chances at Raymond James Stadium, which includes victories over UConn and FCS squad Western Carolina.

 

[CNOTES]

ACC Report - Week 12


November 12, 2014




The ACC slate is rather intriguing this weekend. It all starts with Virginia Tech-Duke in Durham and Clemson-Georgia Tech in Atlanta during the early games, through the marquee matchup of Florida State-Miami which harkens back to the old days in the battered Orange Bowl in downtown Miami.


2014 ACC STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Boston College 6-4 3-3 6-4 4-5-1


Clemson 7-2 6-1 4-5 4-5


Duke 8-1 4-1 6-2-1 2-6


Florida State 9-0 6-0 2-7 4-5


Georgia Tech 8-2 5-2 6-4 6-4


Louisville 7-3 5-3 6-4 3-6-1


Miami (Fla.) 6-3 3-2 5-4 3-6


North Carolina 4-5 2-3 3-6 4-4


North Carolina State 5-5 1-5 5-5 4-5-1


Pittsburgh 4-5 2-3 3-5-1 4-4-1


Syracuse 3-7 1-5 4-6 2-7-1


Virginia 4-6 2-4 6-3-1 3-7


Virginia Tech 4-5 1-4 3-6 3-5


Wake Forest 2-7 0-5 5-4 2-7




Virginia Tech at Duke (ESPNU, 12:00p.m. ET)


Duke is back home looking to stay on track for their second straight Coastal Division title and appearance in the ACC Championship Game. The Hokies head into this one going the wrong way, as they are 0-4 ATS in their past four against a team with a winning record, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven league games. Virginia Tech is also just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 road games. Duke is 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC tilts, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a losing record. In their past 23, they are 17-5-1 ATS and 16-5-1 ATS in their past 22 at home. The home team has covered four of the past five in this series.


Clemson at Georgia Tech (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)


Clemson hits the road for Atlanta to go battle with Georgia Tech. While the Tigers are 5-2 ATS in the past seven against a team with a winning record, Clemson is 0-4 ATS in the past four ACC battles, and 0-4 ATS in the past four overall. For Georgia Tech, they are 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven ACC games. In this series, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four battles, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five. Clemson is also 5-2 ATS in their past seven trips to Atlanta. The trends for the total are conflicting. The under is 3-1-1 in the past five meetings in Atlanta. However, the under is 4-1 in the past five for Clemson, and 11-4 in their past 15 road games against a team with a winning home record. But the over is 13-6 in Georgia Tech's past 19, and 8-3 in their past 11 following a straight up win of more than 20 points. However, the under is 9-4 in their past 13 after covering the week before, and the under is 19-9 in their past 28 home games against a team with a winning road record.


Pittsburgh at North Carolina (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)


UNC returns home to face Pitt in a battle of 4-5 teams. The Tar Heels showed some signs of improvement on defense at Virginia Oct. 25, but they reverted back to their ugly ways by allowing 47 last time out in Miami Nov. 1. They have given up at least 27 points in all nine of their games this season. UNC is 3-1 ATS in the past four games, while Pitt is 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven after covering their first two outings of the season. The under is the trend lately despite the poor defensive numbers for UNC. The under is 4-1 in their past five home games, and 9-4 in their past 13 league games. For Pitt, the under is 5-1 in their past six after a bye, and 13-5-1 in their past 19 road outings. The under is also 5-1 in their past six against a team with a losing overall record.


Wake Forest at North Carolina State (ESPN3 3:00 p.m.)


Wake Forest is eliminated from bowl eligibility, while North Carolina State still has something to play for at 5-5. However, is N.C. State deserving of being a 15-point favorite? The Wolfpack is just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games at home, and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 league games. The Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games, and 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings with the Pack, while the Deacs are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh. The home team has covered 15 of the past 18 meetings in the series. The under might be the best play. It has cashed in 22 of the past 28 overall, and 11 of the past 14 road games. The under is also 19-7 in the past 26 league games for the Deacs. The under is 4-0 in N.C. State's past four against a team with a losing record, and 3-1-1 in their past five overall. The under is also 13-6 in the past 19 at home for Dave Doeren's group.


Florida State at Miami-Florida (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)


The Seminoles head to Miami Gardens as two-point favorites over in-state rivals Miami. There are plenty of people who think this might be the end of the road for FSU's unbeaten season, but can true freshman QB Brad Kaaya really outplay the defending Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston? While the underdog is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this season, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight. Overall, FSU has covered just one of the past five on the road, and two of their past 10 overall. For Miami, they have covered four in a row at home, and four of the past five overall. They're also 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning road record. However, they are a dismal 3-7 ATS in their past 10 against a team with a winning overall mark. The under has been the dominant trend in this series, going 6-2-1 in the past nine in Miami, and 9-4 in the past 13 overall. The under is 4-1 in Miami's past five, and 4-1 in their past five against a team with an overall winning mark. The under is also 5-0 in their past five league games, although 4-1 in their past five at home against a team with a winning road mark. The over is 4-0 in FSU's past four road outings, and 5-1 in their past six on the road against a team with a winning home mark.


BYE WEEKS
Boston College, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Report - Week 12


November 12, 2014



There are just four games on the slate in the Pac-12 Conference, with the final bye weeks of the regular season. After this, it is a two-week run with a full slate of league teams in action. It all kicks off this week with Cal in the Coliseum against USC in a rare Thursday appearance for the Trojans. All of the other games have tremendous importance, too, especially the Arizona State-Oregon State game. AZ State is viewed as a team on the cusp of a berth in the four-team playoff, and they need to keep winning and hope someone stumbles along the way.


2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Arizona 7-2 4-2 3-6 3-6


Arizona State 8-1 5-1 5-4 4-5


California 5-4 3-4 6-3 6-3


Colorado 2-8 0-7 5-5 6-4


Oregon 9-1 6-1 6-4 6-3-1


Oregon State 4-5 1-5 2-7 5-3-1


Southern California 6-3 5-2 6-3 4-5


Stanford 5-4 3-3 4-5 2-6


UCLA 8-2 5-2 3-7 4-5-1


Utah 6-3 3-3 7-2 3-5-1


Washington 6-4 2-4 4-6 4-6


Washington State 3-7 2-5 4-6 5-5


California at Southern California (Thurs. - ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)


Cal hits the road looking for a signature win, and they should really turn some heads getting it done on national television against a decent SoCal team. The Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their past four road games, but they're 8-18 ATS in their past 26 overall and 6-13 ATS in their past 19 against a team with a winning record. The Bears are also 6-15 ATS in their past 21 Pac-12 battles. USC is 4-1 ATS in their past five at the Coliseum, and 10-4 ATS in their past 14 league games. They're also 7-3 ATS in their past 10, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 against a team with a winning overall record. In this series, the favorite has cashed in each of the past five, and the Bears are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings. The road team is 13-5 ATS in the past 18 meetings. The under has hit in eight of the past 10 meetings in this series, while the under has gone 4-1 in the past five at the Coliseum.


Washington at Arizona (FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET)


Arizona heads into this one as a nine-point favorite, and that could climb if bettors go off the trends in this series. The favorite has covered in each of the past four meetings, and the home team is 6-0 ATS in the past six battles in this series. The Huskies are just 3-10 ATS in the past 13 road games against a team with a winning home record, and they're 3-9-1 ATS in their past 13 games following a double-digit loss at home. For Arizona, they're just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 Pac-12 battles, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight overall. They're also 0-4 ATS in their past four at home. The under has hit ine nine of the past 11 at home for the Wildcats, and 5-1 in their past six against a team with a winning record. The under is 19-6-1 in the past 26 home games for Arizona against a team with a winning road mark.


Utah at Stanford (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m.)


Utah hit the road for Palo Alto looking to turn things around after a home loss to Oregon. And if they get near the end zone, you can bet everyone on the Utes will take the ball past the goal line. Utah is 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their past five conference games. They're also 4-0 ATS in their past four one the road. They find themselves a 7.5-point underdog in this one. Stanford is 4-1 ATS in their past five at home, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a winning road record. For Stanford, they are just 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall mark.


Arizona State at Oregon State (ESPN, 10:45 p.m.)


Arizona State heads to Corvallis as a nine-point favorite, looking to keep their playoff hopes on track. Reser Stadium has been a difficult place for AZ State over the years, though, as the Sun Devils are 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight trips to Corvallis, and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five meetings overall against the Beavs. The underdog is also 4-1-1 ATS in their past six meetings, although the road team is also 4-1-1 ATS in the past six. As far as series trends, over is 4-0 in the past four meetings at Oregon State, and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall. The under is 5-2 in Arizona State's past seven conference games, but 7-3 in their past 10 against a team with a losing overall record. The over has been the dominant trend for Oregon State, going 4-0-1 in their past five, including last weekend's stunning loss to Washington State. The over is 4-0-1 in their past five league games, and 12-5-1 in their past 18 overall against a team with an overall winning mark.


BYE WEEKS


Colorado, Oregon, UCLA, Washington State

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 12


November 11, 2014




TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

AKRON at BUFFALO
Bowden only 1-6-1 last eight vs. mark in 2014. Streaky Buff, however, has dropped last two vs. line TY.
Slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Rockets now only 1-7 vs. spread last seven this season and no covers last five away from Glass Bowl. Huskies have won last 4 SU in series and covered last three vs. UT.
NIU, based on team and series trends.




WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 12


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BALL STATE at UMASS
Mass has covered last 5 and 7 of last 8 this season. Though Lembo 3-1 vs. line away TY and 10-4 last 14 vs. spread as visitor.
UMass, based on recent trends.

KENT STATE at BOWLING GREEN
KSU had covered four in a row vs. BGSU prior to last year's 41-22 loss. Falcs had been 11-6 vs. line last four years at home for Clawson prior to this season and 2-2 in role for Dino. F
Slight to BGSU, based on Flash negatives.




THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

EAST CAROLINA at CINCINNATI
Cincy has won and covered three straight but schedule has broken quite nicely for Tuberville in t hat stretch. Previously, Bearcats were 5-10 in 15 vs. line since early 2013.
Slight to ECU, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at UTSA
Coker 1-6 vs. line last seven TY, no covers last three in Alamodome. USM 3-1 vs. line last four away TY.
USM, based on recent trends.

CAL at SOUTHERN CAL
Cal no series wins since 2003 and no wins at Coliseum since 2000. Bears no covers last five vs. Trojans and 1-8 vs. spread last nine in series. But Cal is 4-0 vs. line away TY for Sonny Dykes. Trojans 3-1 vs. spread as host TY for Sark and SC 13-7 vs. spread as home chalk since 2011.
Slight to SC, based on series trends.




FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TULSA at UCF
Tulsa just 6-15 vs. number since 2013, O'Leary 9-3 vs. spread last 12 in Orlando.
UCF, based on team trends.






FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PITT at NORTH CAROLINA
Fedora 3-1 vs. line last four TY after dropping first five vs. number. Pitt 2-6 vs. spread last eight as visitor (1-2 TY).
Slight to UNC, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at NC STATE
Deacs have now covered last 2 and 5 of last 7 after cover vs. Clemson. The home team has covered seven straight in this series!
NCS, based on series home trends.

TEMPLE at PENN STATE
Owls have not beaten Nittany since 1941. But PSU 1-4 SU last five in 2014. Owls no covers last two on road but still 8-3 vs. line last 11 as visitor.
Temple, based on recent trends.

OHIO STATE at MINNESOTA
Teams haven't met since 2010. Bucks have covered 6 of last 7 this season and are 7-2 vs. line in 2014. Kill 8-3 last 11 as dog and 9-4 vs. number last 12 as host.
Slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.

IOWA at ILLINOIS
Iowa had covered 8 straight away prior to losses at Maryland & Floyd battle vs. Minny. Illini 5-2 as home dog since last season for Beckman, but just 12-21 vs. line since 2012.
Iowa, based on team trends.

ARMY at WESTERN KENTUCKY
Army 3-14 vs. line last 17 away from West Point. WKU 3-1 vs. lien at home TY.
WKU, based on Army road woes.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at WESTERN MICHIGAN
Broncos 9-0 vs. line in 2014! Though EMU had covered last four in series. Eagles 4-13-1 last 18 as road dog.
WMU, based on recent trends.

NEBRASKA at WISCONSIN
Bo Pelini, is 3-0 vs. line away TY and 4-1 as dog since 2013. Badgers have covered last three in 2014 but were just 2-7 in previous nine on board.
Slight to Nebraska, based on recent trends.

KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE
UK has beaten UT just once SU since 1984 (10-7 in 2011). Vols 6-1 vs. line last seven meetings. UT was only 2-8 last 10 as home chalk entering 2014, 2-2 in role TY.
UT, based on series trends.

INDIANA at RUTGERS
Rutgers 1-3 vs. line last four TY, but Hoosiers no covers last five and just 2-7 vs. spread TY, 4-12 last 18 on board since mid 2013.
Slight to Rutgers, based on IU negatives.

CLEMSON at GEORGIA TECH
Clemson has won and covered last 2 meetings and is 4-1 vs. line last five in series. Dabo no covers last four TY but all since QB Watson injured, he should be available here.
Slight to Clemson, based on series trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at DUKE
Beamer no covers last three or six of last seven TY, now on 15-33-1 spread run since late 2010. Cutcliffe 17-5-1 vs. line since LY. Duke 11-1 vs. line last 12 at Wallace Wade Stadium. Beamer 4-7 last 11 as dog.
Duke, based on team trends.

NEVADA at AIR FORCE
Falcs have covered last two years vs. Pack. But Nevada has covered all four on road TY and 6 of last 7 away since mid 2013. Pack 6-2 last eight on board TY.
Slight to Nevada, based on recent trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at SMU
Ponies 2-6 vs. line TY. Willie Taggart lost last road game (at Cincy) but visitor spread mark 17-1 last 18 prior with WKU & Bulls.
USF, based on team trends.

TEXAS STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA
USA no covers first four at home TY, road team 7-2 vs. spread in 2014 Jag games. Franchione 4-0 vs. lin3 away TY.
TSU, based on recent trends.

TCU at KANSAS
Frogs 8-1 vs. line TY, though TCU did not cover last two years vs. KU last two years vs. KU.
Slight to TCU, based on recent trends.

APP STATE at ARKANSAS STATE
Ark State has covered first three in Jonesboro TY and is 11-4 last 15 vs. spread since mid 2013.
Ark State, based on team trends.

UNLV at BYU
UNLV 9-21 as visitor vs. line since 2010 and 1-8 vs. line vs. non-MW away from Sam Boyd that span. BYU 1-6 vs. line last seven TY and no covers last four at Provo (all as DD chalk), though Bronco Mendenhall was 12-5 as DD chalk entering this season.
BYU, based on extended UNLV road negatives.

UTAH at STANFORD
Utes 7-1 vs. line TY and 4-0 as dog. Revenge for tree after loss at Salt Lake City LY. Shaw 4-1 vs. lien as host in 2014 but just 4-6 overall last ten on board.
Utah, based on recent trends.

NEW MEXICO at UTAH STATE
Davie surprising 3-1 SU and vs. line on road TY. Utags have covered 5 of last 6 after Wyo win but 0-3 in 2014 laying DD.
Slight to UNM, based on recent trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at BOISE STATE
Aztecs have covered last three years vs. Boise but Rocky no covers last three as road dog TY. Boise 3-1 vs. line on blue carpet TY.
Slight to Boise, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA at TEXAS TECH
OU has won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 vs. TT. Stoops 5-1 vs. line last six as visitor. Red Raiders 2-6-1 vs. line TY, 2-11-1 last 14 vs. number in reg season since mid 2013. Also 1-6-1 last 8 at Lubbock vs. number.
OU, based on team and recent series trends.

LSU at ARKANSAS
LSU no covers last 2 or 6 of last 7 vs. Razorbacks. Bielema 7-1 vs. number last eight this season.
Arkansas, based on series and team trends.

WASHINGTON at ARIZONA
Significant home-oriented series with host team covering last six meetings. Chris Petersen teams just 3-5 last 8 as dog.
Slight to Arizona, based on series home trends.

AUBURN at GEORGIA
Malzahn 2-5 vs. line last seven TY but 15-5 last 20 on board. Richt only 7-11 vs. spread last 18 at Sanford Stadium.
Auburn, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at FLORIDA
SC only 2-7 vs. line TY. But Muschamp only 8-17-1 vs. number last 26 since mid 2012. Gators 5-12 vs. spread last 17 at Swamp. Spurrier 14-7 as dog since 2009.
SC, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE at MIAMI-FLA
Jimbo 2-8 vs. line last ten. Al Golden has won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 TY.
Miami, based on recent trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at NAVY
Willie Fritz and GS an eye-opening 7-3 vs. line TY Mids have covered two straight since Reynolds returned but only 1-3 vs. line at Annapolis TY.
Slight to GS, based on team trends.

RICE at MARSHALL
Herd 5-1-1 vs. line last seven TY and 9-1 vs. spread as host since LY. But Owls 21-9 vs. spread since mid 2012, also 9-3 last 12 as visitor and 10-5-1 last 16 as dog.
Slight to Rice, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at NOTRE DAME
Pat Fitz now 4-15 last 19 vs. number since early 2013.
Notre Dame, based on Northwestern negatives.

MIAMI-OHIO at CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Chuck Martin's Miami-O is 5-0 as DD dog in 2014 and 0-4 vs. number in all other roles. CMU 4-1 vs. line last five TY as it begins annual late-season kick (Chips were 9-3 vs. line in reg season from game six onward past two years).
Slight to Miami-O, based on team trends.

MTSU at FIU
Stockstill has covered last 2 and 4 of last 5 vs. FIU. Blue Raiders 5-2 last 7 as visiting chalk. Golden Panthers 7-3 vs. line TY but no covers last two, both at home.
Slight to MTSU, based on series trends.

HAWAII at SAN JOSE STATE
Norm Chow 0-4 vs. line on road TY and 1-6 vs. spread last seven overall.
Slight to SJSU, based on team trends.

TROY at IDAHO
Idaho rampaging with five straight covers and 7-2 vs. line TY,
Idaho, based on team trends.

MISSOURI at TEXAS A&M
A&M 4-10 last 14 on board, 6-13 last 19 vs. number since early 2013. Pinkel 9-1 vs. line away from Columbia since LY.
Mizzou, based on team trends.

MEMPHIS at TULANE
Tigers no covers last 2 or 3 of last 4 TY after Temple nail-biter, but still 3-2 vs. line away TY. Wave has covered 3 of last 4 at new home stadium TY.
Slight to Memphis, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at UL-MONROE
ULL 5-0 SU, 4-1 vs. line last 5. Warhawks only 2-5-1 vs. spread last 8 TY. Note that visiting team has covered last four in heated series.
ULL, based on team and series road trends.

ARIZONA STATE at OREGON STATE
Riley has covered last three years vs. ASU but Beavs really laboring TY, no covers last six and 1-8 vs. spread overall. OSU only 2-9 last 11 vs. spread at Corvallis (0-6 last 5 as host vs. Pac-12).
ASU, based on team trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at ALABAMA
Home team has covered last four in series. Last MSU SU win over Bama in 2007, Saban's first year. Tide 7-2 vs. line last 9 at Tuscaloosa and Nick has covered last 7 at Bryant-Denny Stadium vs. SEC foes. Dan Mullen 10-4 last 14 on board and five straight covers as a dog.
Slight to MSU, based on recent trends.

TEXAS at OKLAHOMA STATE
OSU has covered 3 of last 4 in series but Cowpokes are 0-4 last 4 and 0-5-1 last six vs. line in 2014. Horns 4-1 vs. line away from Austin TY.
Slight to Texas, based on recent trends.


MICHIGAN STATE at MARYLAND
MSU 1-2 vs. line on road TY, but Dantonio on 15-6 spread run since early 2013. Spartans 6-2 last eight as visiting chalk. Terps 3-4 as home dog since 2012.
MSU, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at UTEP
Not-so-Mean Green no covers four of last five TY. Also no covers in four away from Denton. UTEP 4-0 vs. spread at Sun Bowl this season.
UTEP, based on recent trends.

 

[CNOTES]

SBPI Rankings - Week 12


November 12, 2014




Listed below are my Top 25 Rankings through Saturday, Nov. 8.


The columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team checks in statistically in each for Offense, Defense and Total.


I also include the AP Poll, Coaches Poll, ESPN’s Football Power Index & Jeff Sagarin’s rankings which can all be used as a solid comparison tool followed by each team’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) adjusted RATING and RANK:


TOP 25 RATINGS
Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule
Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank
Alabama 6 4 2 4 3 1 1 320.1 1
Michigan State 1 9 1 12 12 15 12 281.6 2
Mississippi 24 9 6 10 10 4 3 277.4 3
Auburn 4 51 12 9 9 2 2 276.9 4
Baylor 2 7 3 6 6 5 4 272.8 5
Georgia 9 33 9 16 14 6 10 265.5 6
TCU 7 25 6 5 5 9 5 262.8 7
Ohio State 3 16 4 8 7 8 11 262.7 8
LSU 52 20 26 20 20 12 9 245.7 9
Miami, Fl. 39 17 18 - - - 25 242.4 10
West Virginia 34 37 27 - - - 29 239.6 11
USC 16 39 19 - - 13 21 239.1 12
Clemson 47 4 10 18 17 22 23 238.8 13
Mississippi State 14 36 14 1 1 11 7 235.3 14
Louisville 66 1 10 - - - 32 234.3 15
Nebraska 29 7 8 11 11 - 18 231.6 16
Oklahoma 34 48 35 24 - 10 6 230.3 17
Wisconsin 55 3 13 22 22 16 15 222.8 18
Stanford 76 6 27 - - 20 24 222.7 19
Boise State 10 39 17 - - - 37 222 20
Oregon 5 83 32 3 4 3 8 220.2 21
UCLA 18 73 41 14 15 14 20 219.4 22
Kansas State 32 48 30 13 13 18 13 218.5 23
Florida 84 17 45 - - 23 17 218 24
Arkansas 21 76 48 - - 19 30 217.4 25


New breakdown we will add each week is showing where each Top 25 team ranked in the week’s prior SBPI:


RATINGS COMPARISON
Team Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12
Alabama 2 2 1 1 1 1
Michigan State 5 6 3 3 3 2
Mississippi 6 5 4 5 4 3
Auburn 1 1 2 2 2 4
Baylor 3 3 5 4 6 5
Georgia 19 4 6 6 7 6
TCU 7 12 7 10 9 7
Ohio State 12 13 10 7 5 8
LSU 17 10 13 12 8 9
Miami, Fl. 36 25 20 16 14 10
West Virginia 13 18 15 14 13 11
USC 11 9 12 11 15 12
Clemson 4 8 11 9 11 13
Mississippi State 9 7 9 8 10 14
Louisville 18 17 18 21 20 15
Nebraska 14 16 8 13 16 16
Oklahoma 10 19 16 17 12 17
Wisconsin 28 33 33 24 23 18
Stanford 16 15 19 18 22 19
Boise State 33 35 28 19 19 20
Oregon 30 34 26 27 25 21
UCLA 29 29 27 31 27 22
Kansas State 24 26 21 22 17 23
Florida 31 31 30 29 26 24
Arkansas 27 20 22 23 24 25


Here are an additional few teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 25:


#26 Arizona State
#28 Notre Dame
#34 Georgia Tech
#35 Texas A&M
#47 Colorado State
#48 Arizona
#51 Florida State
#52 Duke
#56 Utah


Conference Breakdown


AAC: 0
ACC: 3
Big 10: 4
Big 12: 5
CUSA: 0
IND: 0
MAC: 0
MWC: 1
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 8
SUN: 0


Strength of each conference taking average ranking of ALL TEAMS:


SEC: 29.64
Pac-12: 44.17
Big 12: 47.50
ACC: 48.79
Big 10: 54.29
IND: 73.75
MWC: 76.92
AAC: 83.64
CUSA: 84.15
SUN: 88.91
MAC: 91.00


Next up let’s look at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams.


TOP 10 NON-POWER 5
Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule
Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank
Boise State 10 39 17 - - - 37 222 20
Memphis 42 12 14 - - - 43 214.5 27
Utah State 54 11 21 - - - 52 206.9 29
East Carolina 22 34 19 - - - 55 198.5 33
Louisiana Tech 55 20 29 - - - 56 195.3 36
Arkansas State 40 25 23 - - - 59 193.2 39
Western Michigan 10 51 22 - - - 80 192.1 41
Marshall 7 23 5 21 21 - 34 191.9 42
Central Michigan 49 19 24 - - - 85 188.5 43
Air Force 19 30 14 - - - 86 186.6 45


Lastly here are the Bottom 10 teams according to College Football SBPI:


BOTTOM 10 TEAMS
Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule
Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank
Vanderbilt 121 95 122 - - - 92 90.7 119
Miami (Ohio) 103 107 118 - - - 121 88.8 120
Hawai'i 117 101 121 - - - 103 86.2 121
Georgia State 92 125 120 - - - 128 81.2 122
South Florida 123 95 123 - - - 101 78.8 123
Southern Mississippi 113 119 124 - - - 111 75.7 124
UNLV 120 114 126 - - - 122 64.9 125
Kent State 123 110 125 - - - 123 62.4 126
Eastern Michigan 122 122 127 - - - 127 53.6 127
SMU 127 128 128 - - - 125 36.6 128

 

[CNOTES]

Kent looks for MAC upset


November 12, 2014




KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES (1-8) at BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (6-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Bowling Green -13.5, Total: 52.5


Kent State attempts to pull off a big upset against Bowling Green, the top team in the MAC East, on Wednesday night.


It has been a rough go of things for the Golden Flashes this year with just one SU win coming against Army at home by a score of 39-17 as 3-point underdogs on Oct. 18. That was one of three games that they have covered on the season, as they are only 3-6 ATS overall, but have covered in three of the past five contests. That includes a cover in their 30-20 loss against Toledo last week as they were big 13-point underdogs at home but could not overcome an early 23-0 deficit behind three turnovers. Kent State did do well on the ground though, with 171 yards on just 19 rushing attempts (9.0 YPC).


The Falcons have been the best team in their division with their one SU loss in conference coming against Western Michigan by a score of 26-14 on Oct. 18 as 3-point favorites. Overall on the season they are just 4-5 ATS and were able to cover the 3.5-points they were giving last week on the road against Akron as they secured a 27-10 victory. They were able to run all over the Zips with 219 yards on the ground (4.3 YPC) while forcing five turnovers in the win.


Bowling Green dominated with a 41-22 victory as 6.5-point favorites on the road last season in this matchup, but had lost the previous three meetings (both SU and ATS). In last year’s contest, they totaled 576 yards of total offense compared to the 302 by Kent State while the only turnover in the game was a fumble lost by the Golden Flashes.


Bettors should know that Kent State has gone 8-2 ATS (80%) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992, while Bowling Green is 8-1 ATS (89%) after outrushing its opponent by 125 or more yards in the previous game in the past three seasons.


Some injuries to watch in this game include a thin offensive line for KSU with OLs Terrell Johnson (ankle, doubtful), Nathan Puthoff (knee, questionable) and Wayne Scott (stinger, probable) all banged up. LB Darius Redmond (concussion) is considered questionable for the Golden Flashes. The Falcons may also be without two key players in HB Travis Greene (ankle) and DL Zach Colvin (illness) who are both questionable for Wednesday.


Kent State’s offense has been putrid while putting up just 14.8 PPG (3rd-worst in FBS) behind a horrible rushing effort (85.1 YPG, 3rd-worst in nation) and 218.4 YPG from the passing game.


QB Colin Reardon (1,884 pass yards, 5.9 YPA, 9 TD, 11 INT) has thrown a pick in four consecutive games while failing to throw a touchdown pass in his past two performances. Due to Reardon's struggles, the Flashes will start freshman QB Nathan Strock (13-for-30, 82 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) in Wednesday's matchup. Strock showed his dual-threat abilities last week versus Toledo with 67 passing yards and 71 rushing yards on just five carries (14.2 YPC).


HB Nick Holley (400 rush yards, 1 TD) is the underwhelming top option in the ground game while gaining only 4.0 YPC, but had his best performance (95 rush yards, 1 TD) last week against Toledo. He helps out the passing game as well by grabbing 24 balls for 192 yards (8.0 avg) and a touchdown this year. Leading the KSU receivers is WR Casey Pierce (433 rec yards, 4 TD) who is averaging a low 10.3 yards per catch on a team-high 42 receptions, while WR Chris Humphrey (380 rec yards, 2 TD) has averaged 11.2 yards per catch on 34 grabs.


On the other side of the ball, the defense has allowed opponents to score 29.4 YPG against them despite the consistent efforts of DBs Nate Holley (110 tackles) and Jordan Italiano (76 tackles, 1 INT).


The Falcons bring to the table a balanced offense that has gained 276.1 YPG through the air (31st in nation) and 171.3 YPG from the rushing game while scoring a solid 32.9 PPG.


QB James Knapke (2,128 pass yards, 11 TD, 9 INT) had his first game without throwing an interception last week against Akron, but has been relied on heavily in his games while averaging 42 passing attempts per game in his eight starts. Unfortunately he has not been too productive while completing 58.3% of his throws for a weak 6.3 YPA. HB Travis Greene (644 yards, 8 TDs) is questionable for this contest and would sorely be missed if he can't suit up based on his triple-digit rushing yards three times this season while scoring a touchdown in six of his nine games.


If he is not able to go, HB Fred Coppet (479 rush yards, 5 TD) will get the start, and he has been productive as the backup while averaging 5.3 YPC and going for 113 yards on 18 attempts (6.3 YPC) after Greene injured his ankle last week. WR Roger Lewis (742 rec yards, 4 TD) has 100+ receiving yards four different times this season while both WRs Ronnie Moore (512 rec yards, 4 TD) and Ryan Burbrink (499 rec yards, 3 TD) have also been productive.


The Bowling Green defense has been subpar this season, giving up 33.6 PPG (24th-worst in FBS), but is doing much better in their past three games with only 16.3 PPG allowed. LB Gabe Martin (77 tackles, 1 INT, 9 TFL) and DB Nick Johnson (47 tackles, 4 INT) will be leaned on in this game to shut down the opposition and to force turnovers like the five takeaways the school had versus Akron last week.

 

[CNOTES]

California at USC

November 11, 2014

The Thursday night college football schedule features three games this week with the late game in the Pac-12 as the most prominent matchup as California visits USC. This was one the great series in the conference a decade ago and after a few down years, both programs appear headed in the right direction with positive steps this season. Here is a look at California and USC to start the new college football weekend.

Match-up: California Bears at USC Trojans
Venue: Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California
Date: Thursday, November 13, 2014
Time/TV: 9:00 PM ET - ESPN
Line: USC -14½
Last Meeting: 2013, USC (-17) 62-28 at California

With a 62-28 blowout win in Berkeley last season, USC has won 10 in a row in this series while covering in eight of the last nine meetings. This series featured several memorable tight games when Pete Carroll and Jeff Tedford were on the sidelines including Cal’s upset of then #3 USC in 2003. An upset this week would not make a huge national impact as the Bears have shown clear improvement in the second season under Sonny Dykes and it appears to be a good, but unremarkable season for USC in a transition season under Steve Sarkisian.

Last season, USC dominated on the scoreboard, but the yardage totals were nearly equal as Cal recovered after falling behind 21-0 to trail by only seven before a few big plays for USC broke the game open just before halftime, including a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Sophomore quarterback Jared Goff impressed last season in this matchup and his numbers have been outstanding this season, throwing for over 3,000 already this season with 27 touchdowns against only four interceptions.

USC quarterback Cody Kessler has not received a great deal of attention this season, but he impressively has 25 touchdown passes against only two interceptions while completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. While Javorius Allen is having a nice season in the backfield with over 1,100 rushing yards, the USC running game has not been as successful as some expected, in the middle of the pack nationally for rushing yards while gaining only 4.2 yards per rush.

At 6-3, USC is poised to return to the postseason for a third straight bowl appearance, but the record does not tell the story of how close USC has been to having a great season. The three losses have come by a total of 13 points with a Hail Mary reception at the end of the game being the difference between USC leading the Pac-12 South instead of Arizona State. The final score in a three-point loss to Utah came with just eight seconds to go and USC nearly rallied back in the upset loss to Boston College after a poor start to the game. On the flip side, USC has won by narrow margins in its two biggest wins, beating Stanford and Arizona with both of those games on the road.

For California, making it to the postseason would be a great accomplishment after the team went just 1-11 last season and 3-9 in 2012 to end a run of consistent success for the program. The Bears are 5-4 with three games to play, but the remaining schedule is daunting, hosting Stanford and BYU in the final two games. This has to be a focused team seeking an upset coming off last week’s bye week. With road wins at Northwestern, at Washington State, and at Oregon State, the Bears have proven capable and recall that California led 31-13 at Arizona early this season before surrendering 36 points in the fourth quarter, also losing on a Hail Mary touchdown pass as time expired. Cal also has a three-point double-overtime win on its resume and a 60-59 win where the opposing team missed a late field goal as the Bears have caught some breaks as well in that has certainly been an entertaining season for the Bears.

California has gained 509 yards per game this season with Goff doing most of the damage in the air, as the Bears are the fourth-most productive passing team in the nation and the ninth-highest scoring team posting nearly 42 points per game. California is allowing nearly 40 points per game as well and the Bears are a full yard per play worse defensively compared with USC as the California pass defense has actually allowed 376 yards per game, even more than the team gains through the air. Allowing a record setting 734 passing yards to Connor Halliday in the win over Washington State does skew the numbers, but Kessler and the USC offense should have favorable opportunities in this matchup.

California Historical Trends: California is just 4-9 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 2012, but going back to 1994, the Bears are 33-21 ATS in that role. California is 40-28-1 ATS as a road underdog since 1994 including 4-0 ATS this season with three S/U wins.

USC Historical Trends: USC is 44-29-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2002, going 33-21-1 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points, going 2-1 in that role this season. USC is just 4-8 ATS at home vs. California going back to 1990.

Additional Thursday Night Games:

East Carolina (-3) at Cincinnati: With apologies to Marshall, East Carolina seemed to be in the driver’s seat to be considered the top non power-five conference team. A turnover-filled loss to Temple two weeks ago changed everything and opened up the AAC race. Cincinnati had a few ugly losses early in the season, but the Bearcats are tied with the Pirates at 3-1 in conference play as this will be an elimination game in the race. These teams have not met since 2004 and at this point, the schedule for Cincinnati now looks tougher despite some of the marquee matchups East Carolina played early in the season, featuring wins over two ACC teams. Statistically, the edge on defense looks substantial for East Carolina, particularly in rushing but this could wind up being a shootout between two great passing teams. It is not clear if Gunner Kiel will be back for Cincinnati this week, but senior Munchie Legaux has plenty of experience and he played well in the Halloween win at Tulane.

Southern Miss (+9) at Texas-San Antonio: Even without starting quarterback Nick Mullens, Southern Miss competed a lot closer with Marshall than it looks last week before turnovers did them in. At 3-7, it has been a step-forward season for the Golden Eagles and this will be the best opportunity to add one more win to the campaign. Texas-San Antonio has lost seven of the last eight games in a stunning collapse for a veteran team. Starting quarterback Tucker Carter returned last week, but was ineffective as the Roadrunners had dismal production before a late rally under freshman Austin Robinson produced an interesting finish. The Texas-San Antonio defense is still respectable, but this appears to be a defeated team that had high expectations after going 7-5 last season. Texas-San Antonio has failed to cover in three straight home games and despite three straight losses both S/U and ATS for the Eagles, they have faced perhaps the three best teams in C-USA the last three games without looking too out of place. There was not an early line on this game due to Mullens still being a question mark for Southern Miss, but he appears probable at this point.

 

[CNOTES]

Oregon up to 2 in playoff rankings


November 11, 2014


Oregon jumped undefeated Florida State and moved into second in the College Football Playoff rankings while TCU took over the fourth spot Tuesday night.


Mississippi State remained No. 1. The Seminoles (9-0) slipped to No. 3. Oregon (9-1) moved up after winning at Utah. The Ducks now have three wins against teams currently in the top 25 (Michigan State, UCLA, Utah). Florida State has beaten two teams in the top 25 (Notre Dame and Clemson).


Committee chairman Jeff Long, the athletic director at Arkansas, said the panel had a long and hard discussion about the merits of the Ducks and Seminoles.


''We looked beyond the record,'' Long said. ''The committee placed significant value on Oregon's quality of wins.''


The 12-person selection committee will chose the four playoff teams on Dec. 7.


Alabama (8-1) is No. 5 and Arizona State (8-1) is sixth, and both appear to be in good shape to secure a spot in the playoff if they can keep winning.


Alabama hosts Mississippi State on Saturday. If Arizona State wins out, it would have to go through Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game.


Baylor (8-1) moved to seventh, but is still behind Big 12 rival TCU (8-1), which lost to the Bears in Waco, Texas, by a field goal last month.


The Bears and Horned Frogs could end the season tied atop the Big 12. If that happens, the conference has said Baylor and TCU would be co-champions.


The selection committee has been directed to use conference championships and head-to-head matchups as ways of distinguishing between teams with similar resumes.


Long said TCU's overall body of work, which includes two wins against the top 25 (Minnesota and Kansas State) outweighed Baylor's last-second victory against the Horned Frogs.


Long stressed that Baylor could still move past the Horned Frogs.


''They can make their case by their body of work and resume,'' Long said.


Ohio State (8-1) is up to eighth after its big victory at Michigan State. The Buckeyes are the highest ranked team from the Big Ten.


Auburn, which had been in the top four the first two weeks of the rankings, fell to No. 9 after losing to Texas A&M at home on Saturday.

 

[CNOTES]

Coaching Carousel


November 11, 2014




COLLEGE COACHING CAROUSEL READY TO SPIN


To those who don't believe that pending coaching changes in college football can be distractions to team members, think again. While at various conference media days over the past couple of summers, we have made a point of asking select players at those functions if pending dismissals of their previous coaches was a bit disconcerting to them and others. And almost all suggested that indeed it was a distraction that they and their teammates (and assistant coaches) could do without. Especially for teams whose seasons had gone careening out of control.


The latter has long been a staple of schools with effective "lame duck" coaches. Though we have seen a handful of interim mentors keep various ships afloat in recent campaigns (and which Clint Bowen seems to be achieving this season at Kansas), when the handwriting is on the wall for an existing coach, situations often go sideways in the final month of the season. Shrewd handicappers have always paid close attention to such developments as they keep their eyes peeled for teams that might be "packing it in" for the final weeks, knowing that such situations in the past have often involved hot-seat coaches.


Now into November, we're getting close to the time again when the college football coaching carousel begins to spin. With that in mind, there are several situations that we will be monitoring in the next few weeks. Four schools have already made changes this season; three of those (SMU, Kansas, and Buffalo) with coaches either resigning, forced to resign, or dismissed, and another (Troy) with a pending retirement. Before we address a couple of potential high-profile openings, we'll update the rumor mill at those four aforementioned locales where the carousel has already started to spin.


SMU...June Jones' early-September resignation (forced or otherwise) has sent the rumor mill whirring in the Metroplex. As the Mustangs have remained winless into mid-November, and, with no chance that interim HC and former d.c. Tom Mason will get the job on a permanent basis, sources say SMU is shooting high for a replacement. Ex-Texas HC Mack Brown reportedly is at the top of the Ponies' wish list and rumored to have been offered an 8-year, $32 million deal. Another former head coach, (ex-Boise, Arkansas, and Ole Miss) Houston Nutt, has reportedly thrown his hat into the ring in Dallas. High-profile assistants such as Alabama d.c. Kirby Smart (whom many believe to be Nick Saban's eventual successor with the Tide) and Clemson o.c. Chad Morris are also apparently on SMU's radar. Keep in mind that unlike some of the other schools shopping for a new coach, money is not going to be a deterrent at SMU.


Kansas...Unlike SMU, the Jayhawks' interim HC, former d.c. Clint Bowen, has generated a groundswell of support for the full-time appointment after mostly inspired play by KU since Charlie Weis' ouster on September 28. The Jayhawks finally scored their first SU win on Bowen's watch when thumping Iowa State 34-14 last weekend, and KU had been competitive in most of Bowen's earlier games. Still, many Big 12 sources believe Bowen is a fall-back candidate at best, though he could be expected to be offered a position on the staff of a new coach. Speculation has run the gauntlet in Jayhawk Nation, including the outlandish (Jim Harbaugh!), though AD Sheahon Zenger, who botched the Weis hire, is seeking a bit more help this time around by recently enlisting the support of search firm guru and former conference commissioner Chuck Nienas to help in the process. Some high-profile assistants are being mentioned, including several with connections to past Kansas staffs, including Texas A&M WR coach Dave Beaty (a recruiting wizard in Texas), Nebraska o.c. Tim Beck, and Ohio State co-o.c. Ed Warinner. High-level coordinators such as Clemson's aforementioned Chad Morris and Oregon o.c. (and former Nebraska QB) Scott Frost have also popped up as possibiliites. Other current head coaches with regional roots who could be targeted are NC State's Dave Doeren, Wyoming (and longtime North Dakota State) HC Craig Bohl and Georgia Southern HC Willie Fritz, also a successful FCS HC at Sam Houston State and a Sunshine State native. Former Ole Miss and Southern Cal (interim) HC Ed Orgeron is also reportedly seeking this position. An intriguing longshot could be Colorado School of Mines HC and "fly sweep" guru Bob Stitt.


Buffalo...Losing a game to Eastern Michigan can be dangerous for a coach, as Jeff Quinn found out when dismissed by the Bulls after an October 11 loss to the Eagles. With interim HC and former o.c. Alex Wood not considered a candidate for the full-time position, MAC sources say attention has turned to several higher-profile assistants and FCS head coaches. Among the latter are Towson's Rob Ambrose and Stony Brook's Chuck Priore. Buffalo Bills RB coach (and former Michigan All-American RB) Tyrone Wheatley is also apparently generating much local buzz. MAC insiders say a "pedigree" name UB might consider is Steve Spurrier, Jr., currently WR coach on his papa's staff at South Carolina.


Troy...As soon as veteran HC Larry Blakeney announced in early October that he would be retiring at the end of the season to spend more time at his fancy vacation home near the Gulf, the line began to form for his replacement, as many insiders believe that a decent Sun Belt job is a perfect stepping-stone opportunity, giving the right coach a more immediate chance to win than what might be the case at most "non-power conference" locales. Various up-and-comers from the assistant ranks have already been mentioned at Troy, including LSU RB coach Frank Wilson, Cincinnati o.c. Eddie Gron, Georgia o.c. (and former Bulldog QB) Mike Bobo, and Mississippi State d.c. Geoff Collins.


Meanwhile, speculation is still running rampant at Florida and Michigan, though both Will Muschamp and Brady Hoke are scratching and clawing to hang on. Hoke's plight seems far more tenuous, especially with Wolverine AD Dave Brandon stepping down (forced out?) last week. Most Big Ten sources believe that not even a season-ending upset over Ohio State would be enough to save Hoke, whose team sits at 5-5 after last week's narrow 10-9 win over Northwestern. As for Muschamp, he gave himself a fighting chance with the recent rousing upset win over Georgia, and last week's romp at Vandy behind RS frosh QB Treon Harris has fueled hopes of fast finish. But most SEC sources believe that Muschamp might have to beat Florida State in UF's regular-season finale to have any chance to be retained by AD Jeremy Foley, who did exercise patience a few weeks ago when many in Gator Nation were calling for Muschanp's scalp following a lopsided home loss in The Swamp vs. Missouri.


The subject of Michigan and especially Florida has also cast a different spotlight upon Mississippi State HC Dan Mullen, whose stock has never been higher than it is right now. Some SEC sources believe that it will be time for the Bulldogs to reward Mullen with a major, mega-money contract upgrade after this season or risk their star coach getting poached, perhaps by Florida (where Mullen served as Urban Meyer's o.c. before taking the MSU job) or maybe another "brand-name" school such as Michigan. Rest assured a call will be made to Starkville from Gainesville if Muschamp is indeed dismissed. If Hoke walks the plank as expected in Ann Arbor, Big Ten sources expect that obligatory calls will first be made to gauge the interest of Big Blue alums such as LSU HC Les Miles (who has quickly rejected Wolverine overtures in the past) and the aforementioned San Francisco 49ers HC Jim Harbaugh, though few in the region believe either will have any interest, which is when an inquiry regarding Mullen could occur.


Stay tuned.


Following is a conference-by-conference update on the conference carousel situation...


AAC: The situation at SMU has been mentioned above. Elsewhere, no coach appears in immediate trouble ion the American other than perhaps Tulsa's Bill Blankenship, in the final stages of a second straight massively disappointing season with the Golden Hurricane. Given the dramatic drop-off of a program that had been a bowl regular, regional sources are not sure that Blankenship is safe. Most believe that at best Tulsa will have him on a win-or-lese edict in 2015.


ACC: All eyes are on the Commonwealth of Virginia. At Charlottesville, UVa HC Mike London, working under what most believe was a bowl-or-else ultimatum this season, has presided over another late-season fade, with four straight losses now forcing Virginia to wins its last two (vs. Miami and VPI) to qualiofy for the postseason. London seemed safe into midseason with generally improved efforts by his team, but losses vs. the Canes and another setback vs. the Hokies (against whom London has yet to win) might seal his fate. Meanwhile, speaking of the Hokies, the Frank Beamer retirement rumors at Virginia Tech are heating up once again with the Gobblers in danger of missing a bowl for the first time since 1992, Beamer's sixth season on the job. The recent retirement of school prexy Charles Steger, a longtime Beamer ally and VPI classmate in the late '60s, has further fueled speculation that now might be the time for Beamer, the longest-tenured BCS-level coach in the country, to step down after 28 seasons.


Big 12: We've previously mentioned the situation at Kansas. The only other current trouble situation in the Big 12 could be at Iowa State, where Paul Rhoads is staring own the barrel of a 2-win season after last year's disappointing 3-9, and could not have been helped by last week's thumping loss to Kansas. The bar is set lower at Ames than most other locales, but recent performance has heightened angst among Cyclone backers. Saving Rhoads for the time being might be his buyout, estimated at $5.3 million, which might preclude any move in the coming offseason...or until ISU finds someone (or several someones) to help finance the remainder of Rhoads' contract. Elsewhere, we would monitor the situation at Texas Tech, where Kliff Kingsbury, a former Red Raider QB who was a rock star in Lubbock when winnign his first seven games on teh sideliens last season, has quickly fallen out of favor after his debut season a year ago. Though regional sources do not believe he is in any immediate trouble after signing a pricey extension after last season.


Big Ten: The plight of Brady Hoke at Michigan was addressed earlier. But Ann Arbor is not the only hot spot in the league. At Indiana, Kevin Wilson was generally thought to need a bowl bid in his fourth season on the job to keep the wolves at bay. At 2-7, that bowl ship has already sailed, and now Wilson will have to hope that administrators are going to give him a mulligan due to injury problems at QB, with productive QB Nate Sudfeld sidelined since earlier in the season. Most regional sources aren't sure that will be enough for Wilson to stay safe. The bowl-or-lese edict was also supposedly in effect at Illinois, where the Fighting illini had endured a miserable couple of season on Tim Beckman's watch. Beckman, however, has a chance to get to six wins with winnable games remaining vs. Iowa, Penn State, and Northwestern, and recently-injured starting QB Wes Lunt is due to return to active duty this week vs. the Hawkeyes. Elsewhere, Nebraska's big year has taken the pressure off of Bo Pelini at Nebraska, and Purdue's improved play has temporarily removed the heat form second-year HC Darrell Hazell. Rutgers' Kyle Flood, also though to be under the microscope entering 2014, was rewarded with a 2-year contract extension in September.


Conference USA: Most situations seem safe for now, with the possible exception of FIU, where Ron Turner needed to see some improvement from last year's 1-11 disaster. To this point, most believe improved efforts from the Golden Panthers (now 3-7) keeps Turner safe for now, but remember that this school also dismissed the well-regarded Mario Cristobal out of the blue two years ago.


Mid-American: The opening at Buffalo was addressed earlier. Kent State seems to be headed in the wrong direction at rapid speed under Paul Haynes, now 1-8 in his second year since succeeding Darell Hazell. But most MAC insiders don't believe the Golden Flashes pull the plug after just two season.


Mountain West: There are two situations to watch closely in the Mountain. First, at Hawaii, where Norm Chow has a 6-28 record in three seasons. Though the Rainbow Warriors have improved slightly this season, the program has yet to gain traction, and the long-awaited opportunity for Chow to finally become a head coach looks to be coming to a sad conclusion. Similarly at UNLV, where another one of the good guys in the profession, Bobby Hauck, is now on a very slippery slope as the Rebels are poised for a fourth 2-win season in Hauck's five years. The momentum from last year's apparent breakthrough and Dallas Bowl bid seems to have dissipated, and sources suggest that the school might be poised to make a change if arrangements can be made to fund Hauck's buyout.


Pac-12: The only situation to watch might be at Oregon State, where the Beavers have suffered another downturn for Mike Riley, who has hit some high notes during his second tour of duty in Corvallis that commenced in 2003. There has always been a faction of anti-Riley OSU boosters, who are now gaining a bit wider platform as this year's Beavers disappoint, needing two wins in their final three games to get bowl-eligible. Sources say Riley will survive with a bowl minimum six wins and is likely to make it to 2015 as long as the Beavs don't completely collapse in the final three weeks, though losses to Arizona State, Washington, and another to Oregon would make the situation a bit tenuous for Riley.


SEC: Beyond the aforementioned situation at Florida, no coach appears in immediate danger in the SEC, although there are plenty of angry Vanderbilt supporters due to the quick regression of the Dores back to their old punching bag level under first-year HC Derek Mason.


Sun Belt: We've discussed possibilities as the retiring Larry Blakeney's successor at Troy. A trio of second-year coaches including New Mexico State's Doug Martin, Idaho's Paul Petrino, and Georgia State's Trent Miles are likely to be on the hot seat in 2015, but should survive disappointing seasons this fall.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAFB

NCAA FOOTBALL

RATED PLAYS:

12 - 14 ..................................*****

10 - 11 ..................................DOUBLE PLAY

11 - 8....................................TRIPLE PLAY

9 - 4.....................................BLOW OUTS


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/11/14 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail

11/08/14 27-*14-*1 65.85% +*5800 Detail

11/07/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

11/06/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

11/05/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

11/04/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

11/01/14 26-*23-*0 53.06% +*350 Detail

Totals 62-*46-*1 57.41% +5700


Wednesday, November 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Ball State - 8:00 PM ET Massachusetts -3 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Massachusetts - Over 64.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Kent State - 8:00 PM ET Bowling Green -14.5 500 BLOW OUT

Bowling Green - Over 54 500 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 12

California at USC
The Trojans host Cal tonight and come into the contest with a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games versus the Golden Bears. USC is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Trojans favored by 17. Dunkel Pick: USC (-14). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13

Game 311-312: East Carolina at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 87.272; Cincinnati 89.908
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 3; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3); Under

Game 313-314: Southern Mississippi at TX-San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 65.770; TX-San Antonio 80.674
Dunkel Line: TX-San Antonio by 15; 52
Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 9; 46
Dunkel Pick: TX-San Antonio (-9); Over

Game 315-316: California at USC (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 88.877; USC 105.884
Dunkel Line: USC by 17; 66
Vegas Line: USC by 14; 72
Dunkel Pick: USC (-14); Under


FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14

Game 317-318: Tulsa at Central Florida (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 71.212; Central Florida 86.347
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 15; 63
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 20; 55
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+20); Over




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday's games
Cincinnati won its last three games, scoring 37.7 ppg and running ball for 240+ yards; over last 11 years, Bearcats are 9-4 as home underdog. East Carolina is 2-2 on road, losing last game as 10-point favorite at Temple; they lost five fumbles in game, losing despite outgaining Owls 432-135; Pirates are 0-4 vs spread in last four games, 1-6 in last seven games as road favorites. ECU is averaging 22.3 ppg on road, 47.3 at home. AAC home underdogs are 4-6 against the spread this season.

Southern Mississippi lost its last three games, allowing 43 ppg; they got off to 14-0 lead over unbeaten Marshall last week but lost 63-17. Eagles are 3-2 as road underdogs this year, after being 3-10 last two years. San Antonio lost seven of last eight games, with lone win 16-13; they're 0-4 vs spread when favored this year, and lost last three games, by 7-34-10 points, scoring total of seven points last two games while outgained by 444 yards. C-USA home favorites are 9-15 vs spread.

USC won its last ten games with Cal, covering eight of last nine; Trojans won last five series games by average score of 39-13. Golden Bears lost last six visits to USC, last two by 27-9/48-14 scores. USC covered three of four as home favorite this year, winning in Coliseum by 39-25-28, but losing to ASU at home. Cal is 4-0 as road underdog this year, going 3-1 SU, with only loss 49-45 at Arizona when they blew 18-point lead late in game. Pac-12 home favorites are 9-12 vs spread.

Friday's game
Home side won five of last six Tulsa-Central Florida games; Tulsa beat UCF twice in 2012, 33-27/23-21, but Golden Hurricane is 2-7 this year, ending its 7-game skid with win last week over woeful SMU. UCF won four of last five I-A games, with only one of those wins by more than 7 points. Knights are 2-3 as favorite this year, 2-1 at home. Tulsa is 2-1 as road underdog this year, but only one of its four road losses was by less than 20 points. AAC home favorites are 6-12 against spread.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Thursday, November 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: California at USC
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

California Golden Bears at Southern California Trojans (-14.5, 72)

USC looks to keep its faint Pac-12 South title hopes alive Thursday when the Trojans host California, which needs one win in its final three games to become bowl eligible. Outside linebacker Su’a Cravens is expected to play after giving the Trojans a scare against Washington State on Nov. 1, when he left the game with a knee injury. Cravens, who leads USC with 12.5 tackles for loss, has been cleared to face an explosive Cal team that averages 41.9 points and 361 passing yards.

Both teams took advantage of a week off after the Trojans routed Washington State 44-17 and the Golden Bears defeated Oregon State 45-31 two weeks ago. The much-needed break enabled players such as Cravens and Cal wide receivers Trevor Davis and Kenny Lawler to recover from injuries, but the news wasn’t as good for Golden Bears defensive end Brennan Scarlett. The junior starter had season-ending ACL surgery last week and will be replaced by freshman Noah Westerfield.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: USC opened as 14.5 point home favorites and were bet as low as -13.5, before settling back at -14.5. The total has held steady at the opening number of 72.

INJURY REPORT: California - WR Trevor Davis (probable Thursday, head), WR Kenny Lawler (probable Thursday, ankle), DB Avery Sebastian (questionable Thursday, quadricep). USC - G Jordan Simmons (questionable Thursday, knee), WR Ajene Harris (questionable Thursday, hamstring), FB Soma Vainuku (questionable Thursday, hamstring), G Damien Mama (questionable Thursday, knee), S Su'a Cravens (questionable Thursday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: It is expected to be overcast with temperatures in the mid 60's. There is a slight 20 percent chance of rain and a gusting eight mile per hour wind blowing towards the east end zone.

ABOUT CALIFORNIA (5-4, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 O/U): Jared Goff is fourth in the nation with 3,119 passing yards, while running back Daniel Lasco continued to impress with a career-high 188 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Oregon State. The injuries at wide receiver have created an opportunity for Stephen Anderson, who leads the team with 509 receiving yards on 34 catches. Linebacker Michael Barton has a team-high 60 tackles for the struggling defensive unit, which ranks last in the Pac-12 while yielding nearly 40 points and 526 yards per game.

ABOUT USC (6-3, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U): The Trojans need to defeat Cal and UCLA and receive some help in order to win the Pac-12 South, and they’ll start by trying to slow down the Golden Bears’ offense. Defensive end Leonard Williams has 4.5 sacks to lead a unit that ranks third in the league against the run. The Trojans average 35 points and boast several underrated stars on offense, including quarterback Cody Kessler (25-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio) and Javorius Allen, who leads the Pac-12 with an average of 125 rushing yards.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings at USC.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 minutes.
* California is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.

CONSENSUS: Just over 52 percent of wagers are backing the Trojans at -14.5.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, November 13


After hot start, East Carolina poor spread play

East Carolina looked like world beaters to start the season not just on the field, but at the window. However, after this hot start the Pirates have now dropped their last four straight games against the spread.

After the amazing start the spreads for East Carolina became too large to cover ranging from -9.5 to -40.5 in their past four games. The Pirates failed to cover those games by an average of 16 points per game.

East Carolina is currently 3-point road faves against Cincinnati Thursday.


USC dominating Cal, easily covering recently

You would think games between USC and Cal would be closer than they have been. The Trojans have won the past 10 and have covered in eight of those contests.

In the past five seasons USC is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS and has outscored the Golden Bears 197-63.

USC is currently a 14.5-point home fave against Cal.


Texas-San Antonio one of the worst ATS teams

After going 2-0 against the spread to start the season, Texas-San Antonio has gone 1-6 ATS in their past seven games. The Roadrunners lone cover during that stretch was when they were 11-point road dogs against Louisiana Tech three weeks ago.

Texas-San Antonio will host Southern Mississippi as 9-point faves Thursday.

 

[CNOTES]

California at USC


November 11, 2014


The Thursday night college football schedule features three games this week with the late game in the Pac-12 as the most prominent matchup as California visits USC. This was one the great series in the conference a decade ago and after a few down years, both programs appear headed in the right direction with positive steps this season. Here is a look at California and USC to start the new college football weekend.


Match-up: California Bears at USC Trojans
Venue: Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California
Date: Thursday, November 13, 2014
Time/TV: 9:00 PM ET - ESPN
Line: USC -14½
Last Meeting: 2013, USC (-17) 62-28 at California


With a 62-28 blowout win in Berkeley last season, USC has won 10 in a row in this series while covering in eight of the last nine meetings. This series featured several memorable tight games when Pete Carroll and Jeff Tedford were on the sidelines including Cal’s upset of then #3 USC in 2003. An upset this week would not make a huge national impact as the Bears have shown clear improvement in the second season under Sonny Dykes and it appears to be a good, but unremarkable season for USC in a transition season under Steve Sarkisian.


Last season, USC dominated on the scoreboard, but the yardage totals were nearly equal as Cal recovered after falling behind 21-0 to trail by only seven before a few big plays for USC broke the game open just before halftime, including a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Sophomore quarterback Jared Goff impressed last season in this matchup and his numbers have been outstanding this season, throwing for over 3,000 already this season with 27 touchdowns against only four interceptions.


USC quarterback Cody Kessler has not received a great deal of attention this season, but he impressively has 25 touchdown passes against only two interceptions while completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. While Javorius Allen is having a nice season in the backfield with over 1,100 rushing yards, the USC running game has not been as successful as some expected, in the middle of the pack nationally for rushing yards while gaining only 4.2 yards per rush.


At 6-3, USC is poised to return to the postseason for a third straight bowl appearance, but the record does not tell the story of how close USC has been to having a great season. The three losses have come by a total of 13 points with a Hail Mary reception at the end of the game being the difference between USC leading the Pac-12 South instead of Arizona State. The final score in a three-point loss to Utah came with just eight seconds to go and USC nearly rallied back in the upset loss to Boston College after a poor start to the game. On the flip side, USC has won by narrow margins in its two biggest wins, beating Stanford and Arizona with both of those games on the road.


For California, making it to the postseason would be a great accomplishment after the team went just 1-11 last season and 3-9 in 2012 to end a run of consistent success for the program. The Bears are 5-4 with three games to play, but the remaining schedule is daunting, hosting Stanford and BYU in the final two games. This has to be a focused team seeking an upset coming off last week’s bye week. With road wins at Northwestern, at Washington State, and at Oregon State, the Bears have proven capable and recall that California led 31-13 at Arizona early this season before surrendering 36 points in the fourth quarter, also losing on a Hail Mary touchdown pass as time expired. Cal also has a three-point double-overtime win on its resume and a 60-59 win where the opposing team missed a late field goal as the Bears have caught some breaks as well in that has certainly been an entertaining season for the Bears.


California has gained 509 yards per game this season with Goff doing most of the damage in the air, as the Bears are the fourth-most productive passing team in the nation and the ninth-highest scoring team posting nearly 42 points per game. California is allowing nearly 40 points per game as well and the Bears are a full yard per play worse defensively compared with USC as the California pass defense has actually allowed 376 yards per game, even more than the team gains through the air. Allowing a record setting 734 passing yards to Connor Halliday in the win over Washington State does skew the numbers, but Kessler and the USC offense should have favorable opportunities in this matchup.


California Historical Trends: California is just 4-9 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 2012, but going back to 1994, the Bears are 33-21 ATS in that role. California is 40-28-1 ATS as a road underdog since 1994 including 4-0 ATS this season with three S/U wins.


USC Historical Trends: USC is 44-29-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2002, going 33-21-1 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points, going 2-1 in that role this season. USC is just 4-8 ATS at home vs. California going back to 1990.


Additional Thursday Night Games:


East Carolina (-3) at Cincinnati: With apologies to Marshall, East Carolina seemed to be in the driver’s seat to be considered the top non power-five conference team. A turnover-filled loss to Temple two weeks ago changed everything and opened up the AAC race. Cincinnati had a few ugly losses early in the season, but the Bearcats are tied with the Pirates at 3-1 in conference play as this will be an elimination game in the race. These teams have not met since 2004 and at this point, the schedule for Cincinnati now looks tougher despite some of the marquee matchups East Carolina played early in the season, featuring wins over two ACC teams. Statistically, the edge on defense looks substantial for East Carolina, particularly in rushing but this could wind up being a shootout between two great passing teams. It is not clear if Gunner Kiel will be back for Cincinnati this week, but senior Munchie Legaux has plenty of experience and he played well in the Halloween win at Tulane.


Southern Miss (+9) at Texas-San Antonio: Even without starting quarterback Nick Mullens, Southern Miss competed a lot closer with Marshall than it looks last week before turnovers did them in. At 3-7, it has been a step-forward season for the Golden Eagles and this will be the best opportunity to add one more win to the campaign. Texas-San Antonio has lost seven of the last eight games in a stunning collapse for a veteran team. Starting quarterback Tucker Carter returned last week, but was ineffective as the Roadrunners had dismal production before a late rally under freshman Austin Robinson produced an interesting finish. The Texas-San Antonio defense is still respectable, but this appears to be a defeated team that had high expectations after going 7-5 last season. Texas-San Antonio has failed to cover in three straight home games and despite three straight losses both S/U and ATS for the Eagles, they have faced perhaps the three best teams in C-USA the last three games without looking too out of place. There was not an early line on this game due to Mullens still being a question mark for Southern Miss, but he appears probable at this point.

 

[CNOTES]

Cal, USC ready for shootout


November 12, 2014




CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (5-4) at USC TROJANS (6-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: USC -14.5, Total: 72


California looks to become bowl eligible when it travels to USC on Thursday night.


The Golden Bears started out the season with two wins (SU and ATS) against non-conference opponents, but have struggled in Pac-12 play while going 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) and losing three of the past four games. Each one of those defeats came at home, but they were able to get a victory in their most recent contest on Nov. 1 as they defeated Oregon State on the road by a score of 45-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. The teams combined for 1,012 yards of total offense with 546 of them coming from the California, which split the yardage nearly evenly between passing (277 yards) and rushing (269 yards).


The Trojans have certainly had a disappointing year while going 6-3 (both SU and ATS) and coving in each one of their wins but failing to cover in any of their three losses. They have taken their defeats by an average of just 4.3 PPG but were able to grab a lopsided win in their last game on Nov. 1, taking down Washington State on the road by a score of 44-17 as 7-point favorites. USC piled up a hefty 527 yards of offense in the victory while throwing for 400 yards and five touchdowns.


The Trojans went off last season when these two programs met head-to-head, winning by a score of 62-28 as 19-point favorites on the road, which included scoring 41 points in the first half. USC had 256 yards rushing in the victory while neither team had a turnover. That gave the Trojans 10 straight SU wins (8-2 ATS) in this series, as they have prevailed in 19.8 PPG during this series win streak.


Bettors should be aware that USC is a mere 6-15 ATS (29%) after one or more consecutive SU wins in the past three seasons, but the Golden Bears are only 17-33 ATS (34%) in road games after a game where they committed one or less turnovers since 1992.


On the injury front, WRs Kenny Lawler (ankle) and Trevor Davis (neck) are questionable for California while DBs Su’a Cravens (leg) and John Plattenburg (thigh) are also questionable for the host Trojans.


California has been one of the best passing offenses in the nation with 361 YPG through the air (4th in FBS), while rushing for 148.1 YPG and scoring 41.9 PPG (9th in FBS). QB Jared Goff (3,119 pass yards, 27 TD, 4 INT) has surpassed 300 passing yards in six of his past seven performances, but has just five touchdowns in his past four games combined. He has connected on 63% of his passes on the year for 8.4 YPA and has twice thrown for more than 450 yards.


HB Daniel Lasco (796 rush yards, 10 TD) has rushed for over 100 yards three times this year while running the ball 30 times for 188 yards (6.3 YPC) and 3 TD in the win over Oregon State to open the month. Eight different receivers on the team have 18+ receptions with WR Stephen Anderson (509 rec yards, 3 TD) leading the team in yards while WRs Bryce Treggs (462 rec yards, 6 TD), Chris Harper (454 rec yards, 5 TD) and Kenny Lawler (404 rec yards, 6 TD) have been productive.


Their defense has allowed opponents to score 39.9 PPG (6th-worst in FBS) while giving up more than 30 points in each of the past seven games. LB Michael Barton (60 tackles, 5.5 TFL) and DB Michael Lowe (55 tackles, 3.5 TFL) will need to step up their performances in order to keep the strong USC offense in check.


While the Trojans have been better in the passing attack (286.4 YPG, 25th in nation), they have also been effective rushing the ball (172.4 YPG), which has led to 34.9 PPG (29th in FBS) out of their offense. QB Cody Kessler (2,548 pass yards, 25 TD, 2 INT) has had some huge games this year while going over 300 yards four times and has 14 TD with just 1 INT over the past three contests. In his last game, he went 21-for-32 (66%) with 400 yards and 5 TD (0 INT) in the blowout win over Washington State.


HB Javorius Allen (1,124 rush yards, 8 TD) has reached the century mark running the ball in all but one game this season while averaging 21.8 attempts per game (5.7 YPC). He has also been vital to the air attack, catching 28 balls for 334 yards (11.9 avg) and a touchdown. WR Nelson Agholor (863 rec yards, 8 TD) has been consistent with at least five receptions in each game while averaging 152.7 YPG over the past three contests.


Their defense has looked solid in the high-octane Pac-12 conference, as they have given up only 22.6 PPG (34th in nation). LB Hayes Pullard (68 tackles, 1 INT) and DL Leonard Williams (54 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT) have been the leaders on this side of the ball.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAFB


NCAA FOOTBALL


RATED PLAYS:


12 - 14 ..................................*****


11 - 13..................................DOUBLE PLAY


11 - 8....................................TRIPLE PLAY


9 - 5.....................................BLOW OUTS




Thursday, November 13


Game Score Status Pick Amount


East Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Cincinnati +1 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Cincinnati - Under 71.5 500


Southern Mississippi - 8:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi +7 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Texas-San Antonio - Under 46.5 500


California - 9:00 PM ET Southern California -14 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Southern California - Over 71.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

NCAA FOOTBALL


RATED PLAYS:


12 - 14 ..................................*****


11 - 13..................................DOUBLE PLAY


11 - 8....................................TRIPLE PLAY


9 - 5.....................................BLOW OUTS




Date WLT Pct Net Units Record


11/13/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail


11/12/14 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail


11/11/14 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail


11/08/14 27-*14-*1 65.85% +*5800 Detail


11/07/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail


11/06/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail


11/05/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail


11/04/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail


11/01/14 26-*23-*0 53.06% +*350 Detail


Totals 66-*52-*1 55.93% +4400


Friday, November 14


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Tulsa - 8:00 PM ET Central Florida -19 500 Double play


Central Florida - Over 55 500 Double play

 

[CNOTES]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 12

(17) Clemson Tigers at (23) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+3)

*Clemson will be getting record-setting freshman QB Deshaun Watson back this week. Watson has been out the Tigers past three contests (3-0 SU/ 0-3 ATS) with a hand injury. Clemson is 4-2 SU and ATS with the freshman in the lineup this season.

*Only two teams have averaged more rushing yards per game than the Yellow Jackets this season. Georgia Tech is averaging 247.8 rushing yards per game and has rushed for 300 or more yards six times in 10 games on the year.

(7) Ohio State Buckeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+12)

*Ohio State has won 12 consecutive games on the road (8-4 ATS), which is the longest active streak in the FBS. The stretch, that started in 2012, has seen the Buckeyes outscore their opponents by an average of 15 points per game.

*The Golden Gophers are 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) at home this season, for the first time since 1977, thanks in large part to QB Mitch Leidner. The sophomore has a 8-2 TD/INT ratio at home this season while completing 57.3 percent of his passes.

Virginia Tech Hokies at (19) Duke Blue Devils (-5)

*Passing against the Hokies this season has been near impossible, with the defense only allowing opposing QBs to complete 47.42 percent of passes, which is the third-lowest rate in the country. However, the team only has five interceptions, three of which came in one game.

*Duke is only allowing .44 sacks per game, an average which ranks first in the nation. The Blue Devils have attempted 325 passes while allowing just four sacks to surrender one sack per every 81.25 passes

Rice Owls at (21) Marshall Thundering Herd (-21.5)

*Rice has recorded 27 sacks during their six-game win streak and is ranked fifth nationally with 3.6 sacks per game while Marshall is only allowing 1.1 sacks.

*Though there has been a lot made of Marshall's offense this season, their defense has been one of the tops in the country. The Thundering Herd are allowing a mere 17.8 ppg, while holding opposing offenses to 358.4 yards per game.

(5) TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas Jayhawks (+28.5)

*TCU QB Trevone Boykin is looking to become one of just three quarterbacks nationally since 2009 to average over 300 yards passing and 50 yards rushing. The other two were Heisman Trophy winners Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel. Boykin is at 299 yards per game passing and 60.7 rushing.

*“He’s a leader in the huddle and he’s a guy that has a presence about him that gives you confidence,” coach Clint Bowen said about QB Michael Cummings. “When he goes on the field, Mike is one of those guys that just makes you believe he’s going to get it done.”

Northwestern Wildcats at (16) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-17.5)

*Wildcats QB Trevor Sieman has thrown 337 passes this season, but only has five touchdowns to go with eight interceptions. That means 1.5 percent of his passes have gone for scores while 2.4 percent went for picks.

*Notre Dame has intercepted at least one pass in each of its nine games this year and boasts an active streak of 12 consecutive games with an interception, last failing to pick off a pass on Nov. 9, 2013, at Pittsburgh

(24) Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Tech (OTB)

*Freshman QB Cody Thomas will get the start for the Sooners after Trevor Knight suffered a head injury during last week's game. Thomas has attempted 16 passes this season for 50 yards and one pick.

*Texas Tech LB Sam Eguavoen is set to return to action after missing two games with compartment syndrome in his right calf. The senior has 32 solo tackles and a sack this season.

Washington Huskies at (18) Arizona Wildcats (-9)

*As a conference, the Pac-12 has the most returns for touchdowns in the nation with 19 (11 punt returns, eight kick returns). But the Arizona Wildcats and Washington Huskies are just two of three teams in the conference which haven't allowed a special teams touchdown.

*Washington head coach Chris Petersen is hoping for more big plays from a passing game which he deemed "painful." "We just need to be able to throw the ball down field a little bit more and make some plays," Petersen said Monday. “It was nice, we got one to Brayden, a big chunk play. We had two other chances to Dante (Pettis) we couldn't quite get done. We need to hit a few of those."

(11) Nebraska Cornhuskers at (22) Wisconsin Badgers (-6.5)

*The status of Nebraska Cornhusker RB Ameer Abdullah is unclear after not practicing during the bye week. "I'm not a doctor," head coach Bo Pelini said Monday of Abdullah. "I don't know how it's going to play out." Abdullah, who's rushed for 1,250 yards and scored 19 touchdowns, was wearing a brace in practice and is officially listed as probable.

*It was announced Monday that the winner of the Nebraska-Wisconsin rivalry game wins the "Freedom Trophy". The Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011 and have played Wisconsin three times since. The Badgers are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU heading into Saturday's meeting.

(1) Mississippi State Bulldogs at (3) Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5)

*Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott is the only other player in the race for the Heisman Trophy. Oregon's Marcus Mariota is the -750 fave, with the Bulldogs' QB next at +500.

*No program does a better job at limiting opposing offenses' yardage at home than Alabama. The Tide allow just 195 yards per game in their home games this season. Next best is Arkansas at 241.7 yards per game - almost 50 yards more per game.

(9) Auburn Tigers at (14) Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5)

*Georgia finally gets running back Todd Gurley back this week as the Bulldogs face Auburn. The Dogs were 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in Gurley's five games this season, but posted a record of 5-0 O/U.

*Auburn has struggled at Georgia recently and is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three trips to Sanford Stadium.

(20) LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-2)

*LSU's offense has been heavily dependent on freshman this season. Eighteen of the Tigers' 37 offensive toucdowns (48 percent) have been scored by first-year players, with QB Brandon Harris tallying nine.

*Though just 4-5 SU this season, the Razorbacks have been one of the best bets in the land. The Razorbacks are 7-2 ATS and are a perfect 4-0 ATS at home - exactly where they will be this weekend when the LSU Tigers come into town. The Razorbacks are presently 2.5-point faves and are 3-0 ATS as faves this year.

(12) Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins (+12)

*The Spartans are currently on the outside looking in at the college football playoffs, but coach Mike Dantonio isn't going to just sit around. "A lot of (teams are) sitting around wondering, 'What do we do next?' That's competition at the highest level," Dantonio said. "Deal with it, be a man about it and move on."

*Terrapins leading WR Stefon Diggs, who was slated to serve a one-game suspension for his role in a pregame skirmish with Penn State, suffered a lacerated kidney in that Nov. 1 matchup and could be out until the end of the regular season.

(2) FSU Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes (+2.5)

*Florida State is 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS against in-state foes under Jimbo Fisher (since 2010). The Seminoles have won and covered their all four matchups versus Miami with Fisher at the helm.

*The Hurricanes were one of only two teams to intercept Jamies Winston more than once last season when they picked him off twice despite getting beat down 41-14.

(8) Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers (+9)

*Sun Devils QB Taylor Kelly had his best performance since returning from a foot injury against Notre Dame. "Those first two games (back from injury), getting the timing down in your head with the rush and different routes (was difficult)." Kelly passed for 224 yards (17 for 28) and three touchdowns with one interception.

*It may seem like the first time this season the Beavers will have their entire starting defensive line healthy. Both DE Lavonte Barnett and LB Jaswha James played last week after missing two games and DL Jalen Grimble is expected to play for the first time in five games for the Sun Devils.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Saturday's games
Top games of week
Ohio State won last eight games with Minnesota (6-2 vs spread); they've won last six visits here (5-1 vs spread) winning 52-10/30-7 in last two in Twin Cities. Gophers are 7-2 this year after 51-14 win over Iowa in last game; Minnesota is 6-6 as home dog under Kill. Buckeyes scored 43 ppg in winning its three road games; they're 4-4 as road favorites with Meyer 1-1 this year. OSU ran ball for 268+ yards in five of last six games. Big 14 home underdogs are 11-7 vs spread.

Wisconsin won two of last three games with Nebraska, which lost 48-17 (+10) in last visit here, in '11. Average total in last three series games is 74.3. Huskers won last three games, scoring 38.3 ppg; they've covered last three tries as a road underdog- only loss was 27-22 (+7) at Michigan State, when Spartans held them to 47 rushing yards. Wisconsin won last four games, last three by combined score of 123-23; they're 8-3 as home favorite with Anderson. Big 14 home favorites are 11-13 vs spread.

Home side won last five Clemson-Georgia Tech games; Tigers won last two years at home 55-31/47-31, but lost last four visits to Tech, scoring only 14 ppg- they were favored in two of the four losses. Clemson won its last six games, allowing 11.2 ppg in last five;; they're 2-2 away from home, winning at BC/Wake. Tech scored 47.5 ppg in last four games, winning last three; they're 1-6 in last seven games as an underdog. ACC home underdogs are 9-12 vs spread.

Duke (+10) upset Virginia Tech 13-10 LY, their first series win in last 10 tries; Hokies were double digit favorite in all ten games, now Blue Devils are favored. Duke is 3-0 as home favorite this year, 10-1 since '12- they won home games this year by 38-34-7 points. ACC home favorites are 10-17 vs spread. Tech lost last three games by 5-24-2 points, allowing 28 ppg; they're 2-1 on road, with win at Ohio State, 21-16 loss at Pitt. Hokies covered last three tries as a road dog.

Arkansas had bye last week, LSU lost in OT to Alabama, which has to favor Hogs here, but Bielema is 0-13 in SEC games, with five losses by 7 or less points. LSU won last three series games by 4-7-29 points, with underdogs 5-2 vs spread in last seven meetings. Tigers' last four visits here were all decided by 8 or less points. LSU scored 13 or less points in three of last five games. Hogs covered six of last seven games, are 2-4 as home dog under Bielema, 1-1 this year.

Home side won last six Washington-Arizona games; faves covered four in row in series. Huskies lost last three visits here, losing 52-17/44-14 in last two; they've lost three of last four games overall, are 10-21 in last 31 tries as a road dog, 1-1 this year. Arizona is 2-2 as home faves this year; four of its last six wins were by 7 or less points. Wildcats were held to less than 100 rushing yards in two losses. Huskies allowed 971 yards in last two games. Pac-12 home favorites are 9-12 vs spread.

Georgia gets star RB Gurley (suspension) back here; favorites are 5-0 vs spread in last five Auburn-Georgia games. Dawgs won six of last eight series games, winning last three here by 38-7-25 points. Tigers are 0-5 vs spread in last five trips between hedges. Auburn allowed 31+ points in each of last four games; they're 5-00 vs spread as underdogwith Malzahn as coach, 1-0 this year. This is first home game for Georgia in six weeks. SEC home favorites are 8-17 vs spread.

Florida won 38-20/34-10 in two games since Harris became QB; they've got different energy now. Gators ran ball for 632 yards in last two games after being held under 160 rushing yards in previous four games. Florida lost three of last four games with South Carolina, despite Gamecocks not scoring 20 points in any of last three series games. Carolina lost two of three road games, giving up 41.3 ppg; they've lost four of last five games overall- they need to win here or at Clemson for 6-6 regular season.

Florida State dropped to #3 in Final Four ratings, which in reality means little, but guessing it is motivating factor here. Seminoles won last four games with Miami, with three wins by 13+ points in series where dogs are 11-2 vs spread (FSU covered as 21-point fave LY). Miami won last three games, scoring 44 ppg; they're 0-3 as underdogs this year, losing those games by 18-10-11 points- they're 4-0 as home dog under Golden. ACC home underdogs are 9-12 vs spread.

Rice won last six games after 0-3 start; they covered seven of last eight as road underdogs (1-1this year). Owls (+5) lost 24-20 in last visit here; they split last four games with Marshall, with losses by 3-4. Herd was down 14-0 last week, won 63-17; they're 6-1 vs spread last seven games. Don't forget, Marshall is unbeaten but getting shunned in polls, so they are making statements with every win. All nine of their wins are by 15+ points; FAU (35-16) is only team that held them under 42 points.

Texas A&M had lost three of last four games before uplifting 41-38 win at Auburn last week; Aggies are 0-3 as home favorite this year; they've allowed 35+ points in last four SEC games. Missouri won six of its last eight games with A&M; underdogs covered five of those eight. Tigers are 3-2 in last five visits here; they gained 463+ total yards in last three tilts vs Aggies. Mizzou won last three games overall, allowing 12.3 ppg; they covered last five games as an underdog.

Underdogs covered five of last six Arizona State-Oregon State games, as ASU lost last four visits to Corvallis. Nine of last 11 series games were decided by 10+ points. Trap game for Sun Devils after 55-31 home win over Notre Dame last week, when 34-3 lead turned into 34-31 nailbiter with 7:00 left. ASU is 4-0 on road this year, with three wins by 14+ and a 38-34 win at USC- they're 6-2 as road favorites under Kelly. Beavers lost last four games, allowing average of 37.8 ppg.

#1 team in country getting 7 points? Mississippi State lost last six games with Alabama (2-4 vs spread), losing last three visits here by a combined total of 100-24. State won 34-29 at LSU; they're 6-10 as road dog under Mullen, but covered three of last four in that role. Alabama allowed 11.5 ppg in last four games since loss at Ole Miss; they're 8-3 last 11 games as home favorites. Biggest question in this game for me is whether or not Miss State players believe they can win.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Notes - Week 12


November 14, 2014




Week 11 Recap


Bettors watched the pendulum swing back in the totals market last weekend as the ‘over’ went 27-22.


We only have four weeks remaining and based on the opening numbers, you can start to see the totals dip. I would highly recommend keeping a much closer eye on the weather report as you handicap.


Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)


It’s been rare to see Louisville and Wake Forest go ‘over’ this season but that was the case last weekend. Despite having totals in the forties, the Cardinals and Demon Deacons helped the ACC produce a 3-2 record to the ‘over’ last weekend.


The ‘under’ produced a 3-1 record in the Big 12 last Saturday and it could’ve been 4-0 if Kansas State didn’t score a late touchdown against TCU.


Looking below, you can see that the ‘over’ in Ohio State and ‘under’ in Northwestern have been the best total investments this season. Including those results, the Big Ten watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 in Week 11.


There were plenty of points in the Pac-12 last weekend, as seven schools scored 30-plus points and three had 40 or more. The ‘over’ went 4-1 and the outcomes had clear-cut results.


In the four SEC matchups that featured FBS schools, the ‘over’ went 3-1. Bettors who had the ‘under’ (46) in Alabama-LSU were sweating a little bit as the game went to overtime. The Crimson Tide captured a 20-13 win and fortunately for them, the Tigers couldn’t answer in the extra session.


Totals to Watch


Over 8-1
Ohio State: The Buckeyes visit Minnesota
Georgia: The Tigers visit Auburn


Under 9-0
San Diego State: The Aztecs visit Boise State


Under 7-1-1
Northwestern: The Wildcats visit Notre Dame


James Manos (55%) continues to produce college winners on VegasInsider.com!


Head-to-Head


Even though you’ll see a few non-conference matchups sprinkle in at the end of the regular season, the majority of matchups are conference affairs and those games allow us to handicap past encounters between opponents.


Is it necessary?


We asked that question to VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos.


He explained, “Using head-to-head meetings and matchup histories can be useful but you do have to be careful as personnel and talent levels change from year to year.”


“For example, Mississippi State and Alabama have seen the UNDER go 6-0-1 in their last 7 meetings but this is likely not the year to wager on that streak continuing. That seven-year stretch of UNDERS has been based on Alabama dominance as the Tide have simply overwhelmed the less talented Bulldogs……that won't be the case this year. Over the last five years the Tide have featured defenses loaded with NFL caliber talent and they've held the Bulldogs to 3, 10, 7, 7, and 7 points. Also, Mississippi State head coaches have recognized the talent disparity and played slow, run oriented games in an attempt to keep the game competitive, that won't be the case this year either. While this year's Alabama defense has put up solid numbers, the "eye test" tells me they are not as talented as year's past and I think the Bulldogs have their best opportunity offensively since Saban's tenure started. Mississippi State scored 34 at LSU earlier this year and they have the dynamic QB in Prescott to keep this game competitive. Alabama's offense has opened up under new OC Kiffin and the Bulldogs defense can be had especially on the road. I think this is the year this streak ends as the winner will need 33+ points.”


It appears that the oddsmakers and Manos are on the same page as the total for this week’s game opened at 52 and has jumped to 54 ½ as of Friday evening.


Last year’s total closed at 53 ½ and Alabama won 20-7 on the road. Prior to that game, the highest closing number this series had seen was 55 in 2003.


Alabama has seen the ‘under’ go 5-4 this season while Mississippi State has barely leaned to the ‘over’ (5-4).


Along with the above contest, there are other matchups of highly-ranked teams on tap in Week 12 with pending total streaks.


Florida State at Miami, Florida: This series has been very streak. The ‘under’ is currently on a 3-0 run but that was proceeded with a 4-0 push to the ‘over.’ Prior to those seven results, the ‘under’ was 6-0 from 2002-2006. This game opened 61 ½ and has moved to 63.


Nebraska at Wisconsin: Not a large sample size between these Big Ten schools but they have met three times since Nebraska joined the conference. In those games, the ‘over’ has gone 3-0 with totals ranging from 50 ½ to 55 ½. For Saturday’s battle, the line opened 55 ½ and has been pushed up to57. Wisconsin’s defense has been very stout this season and appears to be getting better, allowing 23 combined in their last three games.


Line Moves


This segment has become a very popular feature of our weekly piece and all the credit should be directed towards Manos, who analyzes the line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories.

1) Correct Sharp Movement – Pittsburgh/North Carolina Under


2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Nebraska/Wisconsin Over


3) Public Movement – Auburn/Georgia Over


4) Market Manipulation – Missouri/Texas A&M Under


Listed below are all of the Week 12 total moves by 3 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday.


WEEK 12 MOVES


Rotation Open Current


Ohio State at Minnesota 59.5 54.5


Pittsburgh at North Carolin 69 64


Georgia Southern at Navy 65.5 62


Middle Tenn State at FIU 53 48.5


Utah at Stanford 46.5 42.5


Missouri at Texas A&M 58 55


North Texas at UTEP 58.5 53