4th Quarter Covers - Week 11
November 9, 2014
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 11th college football weekend in a big separation Saturday. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.
Toledo (-13) 30, Kent State 20: Toledo was in charge in this Tuesday night MAC game with a 30-7 lead with fewer than four minutes remaining in the third quarter. The Flashes put together a great drive in just two minutes of game clock to get back within 16 before the start of the fourth quarter. Kent State took advantage of great field position after a fumble, the Flashes added another touchdown early in the final frame to get within 10 after a failed two-point try. Kent State actually had a chance to make it a game as they took the next drive into the Toledo territory before a fumble ended the threat, but the late rally was enough for the home underdog cover.
Penn State (-6) 13, Indiana 7: The Nittany Lions fell behind 7-0 against Indiana with an interception returned for a touchdown after over 26 minutes of scoreless action. On their first play from scrimmage on the next possession, Penn State tied the game. A field goal put Penn State up just 10-7 heading into the fourth quarter and Indiana missed on a long try to answer early in the fourth quarter. With a closing spread of -6 for the road favorite, the final minutes brought great drama as an interception with just over two minutes to go in the game set Penn State up at the Indiana 24-yard line. It was first and goal just one play later, but those on the favorite did not get the game-sealing touchdown they hoped for as the Nittany Lions settled for a short field goal leaving most with a push.
Michigan (-1½) 10, Northwestern 9: Along with the Penn State/Indiana game, the Big Ten did not provide an impressive offensive display in some of Saturday’s action, with neither Michigan or Northwestern scoring in the first half. Michigan would take a 7-0 lead after a 21-yard drive over 38 minutes into the game taking advantage of a Northwestern fumble on a punt return. In the fourth quarter, Northwestern starting on its own 1-yard line went 19 plays and 95 yards only to settle for a field goal and Michigan was able to answer just four minutes later to push the lead back to seven with just over three minutes to go. Trevor Siemian led the Wildcats on a great drive to find the end zone with just three seconds to go in the game, but fittingly given the way the last two seasons for Northwestern have gone, he slipped as the Wildcats went for two and the win. Northwestern was the early favorite in the game, but most on the Wildcats were happy to see the failed conversion and no overtime as it made the host the spread winner with most getting +1½ or +2 on Northwestern.
Wisconsin (-16½) 34, Purdue 16: After a slow start, Wisconsin pulled away late in the second quarter at Purdue, taking a 24-6 lead into halftime, just past the spread that dipped late in the week from -17½ to -16½. Purdue would score the first 10 points out of halftime to make it a one-score game, making the heavy underdog cover look quite promising. The Badgers were able to fend off any upset risk with a late third quarter score, but they led by just 15 heading into the final frame. A long Wisconsin drive early in the fourth resulted in a short field goal and that would be enough for the road favorite cover as a Purdue drive into Wisconsin territory later in the final quarter came up empty.
Appalachian State (-4) 31, UL-Monroe 29: The spread on this game moved from -2½ all the way up to -5 before settling at -4 for the Mountaineers. Early on, it looked like an upset was underway as UL-Monroe carried some momentum from the respectable performance at Texas A&M last week into a 20-7 lead well into the second quarter. Appalachian State would take all the momentum into halftime with two touchdowns in the final 2:24. A Warhawks field goal put the road squad up by two heading into the fourth, but an 89-yard drive resulting in a touchdown with just six minutes to go put Appalachian State past the spread with a five-point lead. With less than two minutes to go, UL-Monroe put together a go-ahead scoring drive going 72 yards in 14 plays and with a missed two-point conversion, the Warhawks led by one. It would be enough for the cover, but Appalachian State would steal the victory, going 53 yards in the final two minutes to set up a 39-yard game winning kick.
Duke (-4) 27, Syracuse 10: Good fortune for Duke continued last week as a dogfight with very limited yardage well into the second half resulted in a final score with Duke winning by 17. Syracuse scored with five minutes to go in the third quarter to tie the game at 10-10, but in the fourth quarter, Duke pinned the Orange back deep and eventually turned the defensive stand into a 52-yard punt return touchdown. Down just seven, Syracuse aggressively went for it on fourth down from their own 31 and failed, setting up a quick Duke field goal. On its next drive, Syracuse was intercepted, a turnover which Duke turned into a touchdown just two plays later as the fourth quarter provided the Blue Devils with a substantial cushion after a great struggle through three quarters against Syracuse who started a third-string quarterback.
Florida (-14½) 34, Vanderbilt 14: The Commodores scored first against Florida and for much of the game, one touchdown looked like enough for the underdog to cover. Florida led just 17-7 entering the final frame, but the Gators completed a touchdown drive just on the other side of the fourth quarter to lead 24-7, past the spread for the first time in the game. A field goal for Vanderbilt put the margin to 14, even with the common spread and short of the hook that many on the Gators dealt with. It wound up not mattering as Florida wound up with 17 fourth quarter points to match its output in the rest of the game to pull away.
Louisville (-3) 38, Boston College 19: The Eagles took a 13-3 lead early against Louisville, but by halftime the Cardinals led by four, just past a spread that sat at -3 or -3½ for the road favorite. Both teams scored touchdowns in the third quarter, but Boston College went for two and failed after a score late in the frame, leaving a five-point deficit. Turnovers burned Boston College in the fourth quarter as Louisville added 14 points late on short drives while Boston College quarterback Tyler Murphy was picked off on three consecutive possession for the Eagles in the fourth quarter to make a misleading final in what was a competitive game.
Rice (-7½) 17, Texas-San Antonio 7: While this line dropped sharply in the late morning Saturday, anyone that played the game Thursday or Friday likely wound up with a push with the Owls at -10. Those on both sides had valid gripes with that result. Rice wound up with a substantial yardage edge early in the game but failed to cash in often, including two missed field goals. Rice took a 17-0 lead late in the third quarter, but the Texas-San Antonio offense put together a great drive behind quarterback Austin Robinson who came into the game in relief, getting the Roadrunners back within 10 early in the fourth quarter. Right before halftime, Texas-San Antonio had botched its time management as they came away with zero points and not even a field goal attempt despite getting to the three-yard line and the end of the game featured another red zone failure from the Roadrunners. With limited time on the clock and no timeouts, the Roadrunners blazed down the field, seemingly assuring a backdoor underdog cover, but a sack produced a fumble at the five-yard line to seal the game and closing line cover for the Owls.
Old Dominion (-5) 38, Florida International 35: The Monarchs led 21-7 early in this Conference USA clash, but the Panthers would have the next four scoring plays, taking a 27-21 lead late in the third quarter. Old Dominion would regroup to score late in the third quarter to take the lead back 28-27, but the Panthers answered early in the fourth with a long run for a touchdown and a successful two-point conversion put FIU up by seven. Getting the ball back with just over four minutes to go the Monarchs were able the march down the field including a big fourth down conversion, ultimately getting the tying touchdown with about a minute to go. Overtime seemed likely, but the Panthers tried to make something happen on their final possession, winding up with a critical interception that put Old Dominion immediately in field goal range. The Monarchs hit a 24-yard pass play to make the final kick even easier, but it was not enough for the home favorite to cover.
Tulsa (-14) 38, SMU 28: Fading the Mustangs has been a popular move at any price, thus a 1-7 Tulsa team entered this game as a two-touchdown favorite. Winless SMU scored first and bizarrely went for two, a statement play gone wrong for a program that has had little go right this season. The Mustangs would score another touchdown in the first quarter despite scoring a total of just five touchdowns over the first seven games of the season. Tulsa took over from there with four consecutive touchdowns to take a 35-13 lead heading into the fourth quarter as the favorite cover looked safe. SMU to its credit, kept fighting and the Mustangs nearly doubled its season touchdown output as they added two fourth quarter touchdowns to close within seven points after getting a successful two-point conversion with just over three minutes to go. Those on Tulsa had a chance late, but with a minute to go, the Hurricane settled for a 24-yard field goal as the ugly underdog earned the cover.
Alabama (-6½) 20, LSU 13: This hyped SEC West clash lived up to the billing and the history of what has been a great series the last decade. LSU struck first, but entering the fourth quarter, the game was tied 10-10 and the score stayed put that way for the first 14 minutes of the final frame. With just over two minutes to go, LSU delivered on special teams to pin Alabama back at the one-yard line to start what seemed likely to be the final drive of regulation, but on second down, T.J. Yeldon was stripped with LSU recovering at the six-yard line. Forgive anyone on the underdog for counting their money at that point, but a bizarre finish was in store. A questionable personal foul penalty pushed LSU backwards and after Alabama stuffed the run and used its timeouts, the Tide still had 50 seconds to work with after the Tigers hit a 39-yard field goal to go up 13-10. Blake Sims led an impressive drive with no timeouts, a drive that did include a critical 22-yard pass reception that might have been questionable on review, but that the Tide followed up with a spike in quick order to prevent any further investigation. With the clock ticking down, Sims connected to DeAndrew White who got out of bounds to stop the clock, setting up the game tying kick with just a few ticks left.
In overtime, Alabama went first, gaining 24 yards on a trick play on first down, but then also was hit with a suspect personal foul to set the Tide back. Eventually, Alabama connected for the go-ahead touchdown, getting narrowly past the spread for the first time all night. LSU seemed likely to get a solid gain on first down, but the pass was dropped and the Tigers seemed to panic, throwing to the end zone rather than trying to gain a first down and departing from its strengths with three more incomplete passes to end the game. A case could have been made for pass interference on two of the plays, but Alabama was able to escape in dramatic fashion and those on LSU suffered one of the most painful spread losses possible.
Florida State (-21) 34, Virginia 20: After stealing a late cover last week in a dramatic win over Louisville, the Seminoles wound up short of the heavy favorite spread this week on a number that bounced around substantially throughout the week. Virginia led 13-7 early, but Florida State took over in the second quarter with the help of turnovers, scoring two of three touchdowns on drives of three and 22 yards respectively. Virginia climbed back within eight in the second half, but the Seminoles were up by 14 heading into the fourth quarter with the spread result still in doubt. Much to the chagrin of anyone on the ‘over’ priced at 55, neither team scored in the fourth as a long Virginia drive down to the Florida State eight-yard line resulted in a failed fourth down try and the Seminoles were able to take a knee from inside the Virginia 20 at the end of the game.
Western Kentucky (-9) 35, UTEP 27: The Hilltoppers were favored by -7½ to -8 most of the week before this line shot up to -9 on Saturday. It made a difference as those on the Miners at the shorter numbers suffered a brutal finish. UTEP led 20-7 early and then 27-14 late into the third quarter. Western Kentucky got back within six heading into the fourth and then got a game-changing 90-yard interception return touchdown to take a 28-27 lead early in the fourth quarter, the second time in three weeks Western Kentucky benefited from a late interception return of 90 or more yards. The Hilltoppers added another touchdown a few minutes later as the collapse continued for the stunned Miners, with the game ending with an eight-point margin.
Marshall (-26) 63, Southern Miss 17: As they have done a few times this season, undefeated Marshall kept the heat on in the fourth quarter of a convincing win. While any consideration for a national playoff spot is a pipe dream for the Herd, this will be a team out to impress the rest of the way. Marshall led by just 11 at halftime and by just 25 entering the fourth quarter, just shy of the huge road favorite spread that was late to come out this week with the starting quarterback for Southern Miss ultimately sitting out. A one play, 83-yard drive in the first minute of the fourth quarter put Marshall past the number and the Herd added two more late scores for good measure.
Georgia Southern (-12) 28, Texas State 25: Against-the-spread darling Georgia Southern saw an early jump from -10 to -14 this week before late buyback brought the closing line to just -12. With a 100-yard interception return to close the third quarter, the great spread run seemed poised to continue as the Eagles led 28-10. Texas State made things interesting late with two touchdowns in the final seven minutes including a two-point conversion to make it a three-point game, but the on-side kick failed as Georgia Southern moved to 8-2, but suffered just its second ATS loss of the season as well.
Arizona (-18½) 38, Colorado 20: While the closing line calls Arizona the spread loser in this game, the majority of folks on the game saw a number that was steady at -17 much of the week. Covering did not look even remotely possible for Arizona much of the way on Saturday as Colorado led 17-14 before Arizona scored just seconds before halftime. The Wildcats led just 24-20 heading into the fourth quarter, but the game turned with a Colorado interception that lined up a short field for Arizona. With a touchdown, the Wildcats went up by 11 with about 10 minutes to go and then added another touchdown with about six minutes to go. The Buffaloes advanced near midfield on their final possession, but came up empty and the game ended with Arizona taking a knee inside the Colorado 20-yard line.
Arizona State (-3) 55, Notre Dame 31: With sloppy play from Everett Golson, Arizona State stormed out to a 34-3 lead early in this big Saturday showdown, but the Irish would climb back into the game, matching the closing spread with a 34-31 deficit with six minutes to go in the game, though for most the line on slight favorite Sun Devils was less than a field goal. It didn’t matter as the Sun Devils answered and then put the game away with an interception return touchdown in the final minutes as Golson wound up with five turnovers.
Oregon (-9½) 51, Utah 27: Those that didn’t stay up for this late night Pac-12 clash were greeted to a misleading final score in the morning as the Ducks led just 27-20 entering the fourth quarter. The key play of the game may have been one of the blunders of the year as Utah wide receiver Kaelin Clay sprinted towards the end zone to seemingly put the Utes up 14-0, but he dropped the ball intentionally before crossing the goal line in the same vein as former Pac-12 wide receiver DeSean Jackson has done. Worse than the ball going out of bounds for a touchback, it stayed in play and Oregon defender Joe Walker took it the other way for a touchdown that completely changed the complexion of the game and took the air out of a hostile home stadium. After falling behind 24-7, the Utes did regain their composure and were within the spread heading into the fourth quarter, actually climbing to within three points with less than 12 minutes on the clock. Oregon would score three late touchdowns including two in a span of 26 seconds late in the game to pull away, leaving with a 4-1 turnover edge in a game that was much closer than the final score.
