Saturday's Top Action
November 21, 2014
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (7-3) at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (7-3)
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Notre Dame -3.5, Total: 52.5
Notre Dame looks to avoid its fourth loss in five games when it hosts No. 24 Louisville on Saturday afternoon.
The Cardinals have done well this season as they are 5-3 SU in the tough ACC with losses to Virginia, Clemson and Florida State. Overall they are 6-4 ATS, as they have failed to cover the spread in two of their past three contests. They did do well in their most recent game though, when they defeated Boston College on the road by a score of 38-19 as 3-point favorites. They outscored the Eagles 21-6 in the second half as they totaled 423 yards of offense for the game while the defense picked off four B.C. passes. The Irish looked to have a chance at playing in the playoffs this year with a 6-0 SU start (4-2 ATS), but things fell apart with losses to Florida State, Arizona State and Northwestern in their past four contests. They have also hurt bettors as they are 0-3 ATS in their past three games including an overtime loss to Northwestern last week as 17-point home favorites. Notre Dame allowed 547 total yards of offense to the Wildcats as it once against struggled with turnovers, coughing up the pigskin four times in the loss to give the school nine giveaways in the past two weeks. These two programs have not met at any point recently and will not play again until the 2019 season. Some trends that bettors should be aware of include that Notre Dame is a poor 6-17 ATS (26%) in home games after having lost two out of their previous three games since 1992, while the Cardinals are just 1-6 ATS (14%) after scoring 37+ points in their previous game in the past three seasons. Louisville suffered a big loss with QB Will Gardner (knee) now being out for the season, and the team could also be without WR James Quick (suspension), who missed the Boston College game after violating team rules. The Irish’s big loss came a few weeks ago when they lost LB Joe Schmidt (ankle) for the season while DL Sheldon Day (hip) is listed as questionable.
The Cardinals do not really excel in any part of their offense as they are scoring 31.6 PPG behind 239.3 YPG passing and 148.1 YPG in the rushing attack. With Gardner out, QB Reggie Bonnafon (662 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) will get the call, and he has been solid in limited action this season as the backup. When he entered the game last week, he hit on 4-of-5 passes for 69 yards while two of his completions went for scores. He is a valuable dual-threat option as well with 138 rushing yards (2.7 YPC) and three touchdowns this year. The running back position is led by HB Brandon Radcliff (445 rush yards, 8 TD) while both HBs Michael Dyer (414 rush yards, 4 TD) and Dominique Brown (374 rush yards, 4 TD) have 90 or more carries. The possible absence of WR James Quick (459 rec yards, 3 TD) is cushioned by the presence of WR DeVante Parker (490 rec yards, 1 TD) who returned three weeks ago and has gone over 130 yards with at least eight receptions in each contest. He is a true red-zone threat who tallied double-digit TDs in each of the past two seasons. The defense for this program has been exceptional in allowing opponents to score a mere 17.8 PPG (10th in FBS) while ranking 10th in the nation with 25 forced turnovers. Much of this production has started from a strong pass rush led by DLs Sheldon Rankins (7 sacks, 39 tackles, 2 INT) and Lorenzo Mauldin (6.5 sacks, 39 tackles) while S Gerod Holliman (13 INT, 1 TD, 31 tackles) has picked off nearly everything that has been thrown in his direction, racking up five interceptions in the past two games alone.
Notre Dame had looked like an efficient and dynamic offense to start the year, and it still ranks 15th in passing (304.4 YPG). Although the Irish have dropped off in their rushing attack (160.7 YPG), they have still scored 35.4 PPG (28th in FBS). QB Everett Golson (3,044 pass yards, 27 TD, 12 INT) has at least one interception in each of the past seven games after throwing none in the first three contests while going for 300+ passing yards four times in the past five games. He is always a threat to take off on the ground as well, with 339 rushing yards on 104 attempts (3.3 YPC) and 8 TD this year while posting his highest rushing total (78 yards) in the loss to Northwestern. HB Tarean Folston (668 rush yards, 4 TD) has at least 18 carries in four out of the past five games and is averaging 118.3 YPG when he hits that number. He has also been able to help out Golson with 165 yards on 14 catches (11.8 avg) and a touchdown. WR William Fuller (853 rec yards, 13 TD) has been the top option through the air, as he has gone over 115 yards three times this year and has at least one score in all but one single contest. Last week he had his best effort of the season in the defeat, as he grabbed nine balls for 159 yards (17.7 avg) and three touchdowns. The Fighting Irish were an elite defense through the first five games of the year, allowing just 12.0 PPG to their opponents, but have fallen off since, with opponents scoring a robust 42.2 PPG against them in the past five contests. DBs Matthias Farley (36 tackles, 4 INT, 3.5 sacks) and Cole Luke (37 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack), and LB Jaylon Smith (77 tackles, 2 sacks) will need to step up to get the team back to its early season form.
ARIZONA WILDCATS (8-2) at UTAH UTES (7-3)
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Utah -4, Total: 54
No. 15 Arizona and No. 17 Utah meet on Saturday for an important game within the wide-open Pac-12 South division.
Arizona has put together a great season with an 8-2 SU record highlighted by defeating Oregon 31-24 as 21.5-point underdogs earlier in the year. Unfortunately, they have not done well for bettors with a 3-7 ATS record while failing to cover in each of their past three attempts. Last week, the Wildcats barely earned the win over Washington, as they escaped with a 27-26 victory at home as 8-point favorites. It took a field goal with time expiring for them to secure the win as they were outgained 504-375 while each team turned the ball over three times. Utah has also been solid in the Pac-12 with key victories over UCLA and USC, but was unable to keep the winning ways going as it lost consecutive games to Arizona State and Oregon. The Utes have been very impressive for bettors at 8-2 ATS on the season and were 10-point underdogs when they traveled to Stanford last week as they were able to pull off an upset in overtime with a 20-17 win. The teams combined for just 541 yards of offense in the defensive struggle, but Utah’s efficiency was key as the team completed 21-of-28 passes and did not turn the ball over. Arizona has won each of the past two meetings in this series by an average of 10.5 PPG while covering both games and throwing for 300+ yards each time. Last season the Wildcats hosted the Utes as 3.5-point favorites and prevailed 35-24 while getting 26 first downs and collecting 320 yards through the air. Before placing a wager, bettors should know that Utah is a mere 23-41 ATS (36%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 while Arizona is 0-7 ATS after scoring 20+ points in the first half of two consecutive games over the past three seasons. Amazingly neither team has any significant injuries to worry about for this key Pac-12 matchup.
Arizona ranks among the naton's top-50 with a potent passing game (306.7 YPG, 14th in FBS) while adding 185.5 YPG from the rushing attack, and posting 35.6 PPG in the process. QB Anu Solomon (3,058 pass yards, 25 TD, 7 INT) has exceeded expectations as a freshman while throwing 3+ TD in five games this year and surpassing 300 yards three times. He put forth a subpar performance in the win over Washington last week though, going 17-for-39 (44%) with 242 yards and 2 INT, while failing to throw a touchdown for the first time this season. HB Nick Wilson (867 rush yards, 9 TD) has hit the century mark rushing the ball five times this year, including the past two games in which he has averaged 128.5 YPG while scoring twice in last week’s victory. There are seven different Arizona players who have more than 20 receptions on this team with WR Cayleb Jones (788 rec yards, 8 TD) leading the way with 58 grabs. He has slowed down after a fast start though, gaining a mere 52.2 YPG over his past six games. The Wildcats defense has allowed opponents to score 26.1 PPG this season behind the efforts of stud LB Scooby Wright III (118 tackles, 12 sacks) and DB Jared Travis (94 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT).
Utah is not like many of its Pac-12 counterparts with an average offense tallying just 189.9 passing YPG and 177.5 rushing YPG, leading to 31.4 PPG. QB Travis Wilson (1,558 pass yards, 13 TD, 2 INT) has six touchdowns and just two picks over his past four contests while looking very impressive in the victory over Stanford last week (21-for-28, 177 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT). He does like to attack the opposition with his legs too, with five games of double-digit carries while gaining 172 yards (2.0 YPC) and scoring two touchdowns overall on the year. HB Devontae Booker (1,113 rush yards, 8 TD) is gaining 5.1 YPC over 218 attempts and had a stretch of five games over the middle of the season where he averaged 162.2 YPG, but has put up a meager 60.4 YPG over the other five contests. He is a big part of the passing game as well with 30 catches for 252 yards (8.4 avg) and two scores, including 17 catches in the past two weeks alone. There is no dominant receiver that comes from this team, while WR Kenneth Scott (351 rec yards, 4 TD) leads the team in receptions (33) and is tied with WR Dres Anderson (355 rec yards, 4 TD) for most touchdown grabs. The performances of LB Jared Norris (90 tackles, 4 sacks), DB Gionni Paul (61 tackles, 4 INT), DL Nate Orchard (73 tackles, 16.5 sacks) and DL Hunter Dimick (50 tackles, 9 sacks) have led the team to giving up 23.8 PPG (43rd in nation) to their opponents.
OLE MISS REBELS (8-2) at ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (5-5)
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Ole Miss -3, Total: 45.5
No. 8 Ole Miss looks to stop a two-game skid against SEC opponents on Saturday afternoon when it visits a confident Arkansas club.
The Rebels had their sights set on the NCAA Playoffs with a perfect 7-0 start (SU and ATS) to the year, but losses to both LSU and Auburn has set them back. They fell by an average of just 3.5 PPG against those two opponents while being favored in each contest, and with their 48-0 victory as 52.5-point favorites over Presbyterian last week, they have now failed to cover in three consecutive tries. Ole Miss had no issues with the Blue Hose as it amassed 640 yards of offense on them while holding their opponent to a meager 156 yards and two turnovers. The Rebels rushing attack was unstoppable with 402 yards on 36 attempts (11.2 YPC) while two halfbacks eclipsed 100 yards. Arkansas is a perfect 4-0 (SU and ATS) when playing outside of the SEC, but has been overmatched in the conference with a poor 1-5 SU record, while actually doing well for bettors at 4-2 ATS. Each SEC opponent it has faced has been ranked among the top-20 in the nation at the time of the game as it has dropped those contests by an average of 10.4 PPG while being within one score of Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State. Last week the Razorbacks pulled out a nice victory against LSU at home with a 17-0 finish as two-point favorites. It was their first SU win against an SEC opponent in 18 attempts as they held the Tigers scoreless for the first time since the National Championship game in 2012. The Razorbacks held LSU to a putrid 123 yards of offense in the contest while converting an impressive 10-of-17 third downs. The Rebels have won both of the past two seasons in this matchup (1-1 ATS), with an average margin of victory of 6.5 PPG. Last year they met in Oxford, as the Rebels were 17-point favorites and outscored Arkansas 34-24 behind 419 passing yards. Trends show that Ole Miss is 20-7 ATS (74%) in games played on turf over the past three seasons while the Razorbacks are a perfect 6-0 ATS following a game where they forced one or less turnovers this year. The Rebels took a hit a few weeks ago when they lost WR Laquon Treadwell (ankle) for the season, and also have HB I’Tavius Mathers (concussion) listed as questionable for this contest. On the other side of the ball, Arkansas has no significant omissions from this contest due to injury.
Ole Miss gets it done in both facets of its offense that scores 33.4 PPG, producing 272.7 YPG through the air (33rd in FBS), while rushing the ball for 174.4 YPG. QB Bo Wallace (2,554 pass yards, 22 TD, 8 INT) has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each game this season while providing multiple scores between passing and rushing in 8-of-10 contests. He has thrown for more than 300 yards four times this season, but just once against an SEC opponent, while getting double-digit rushing opportunities in five of his past six contests, leading to 233 yards (2.4 YPC) and four touchdowns on the year. HB Jaylen Walton (398 rush yards, 4 TD) has had at least 10 carries in four games this year while contributing as a receiver with 159 yards and 2 TD through the air. He is joined in the backfield by HB Jordan Wilkins (311 rush yards, 1 TD), and he had 171 yards and a touchdown in only 10 carries last week against Presbyterian. WRs Vince Sanders (647 rec yards, 6 TD) and Cody Core (437 rec yards, 5 TD) will have to pick up the slack with Treadwell out for the season, and Sanders has been impressive with 17.5 yards per catch while eclipsing the 100-yard mark in each of the past two games. As the offense has been solid, the defense is the real strength of this team, leading the nation in scoring defense (11.9 PPG) by giving up more than 20 points just once on the year. DB Senquez Golson (9 INT, 29 tackles, 1 TD) and DL Marquis Haynes (6.5 sacks, 24 tackles) have been the big playmakers on this side of the ball for the Rebels.
Despite having trouble against tough SEC opponents, the Razorbacks have a solid offense which has gained 232.9 rushing YPG (22nd in nation) while adding 199.9 YPG through the air, leading to 34.0 PPG (36th in FBS). QB Brandon Allen (1,905 pass yards, 15 TD, 5 INT) has been solid this season while eclipsing 200 passing yards in four of his past five games, but has failed to throw a touchdown in each of the past two games. HBs Jonathan Williams (932 rush yards, 11 TD) and Alex Collins (886 rush yards, 11 TD) create a tough matchup for opposing defenses, as they have averaged a solid 6.0 YPC together in 304 attempts. The pair has seven triple-digit rushing performances between them, while each back has double-digit carries in the past four contests. WRs Keon Hatcher (435 rec yards, 3 TD) and Hunter Henry (417 rec yards, 2 TD) each have 30+ receptions as they lead all receivers. The defense for this program has done well while allowing fewer than 20 points in each of the past three games and are giving up an average of only 22.2 PPG (27th in nation) on the year. LB Martell Spaight (97 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 1 INT) leads the team in tackles this season and will have a tough task ahead against the Rebels this week.
USC TROJANS (7-3) at UCLA BRUINS (8-2)
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: UCLA -3.5, Total: 61
With four straight wins, No. 9 UCLA is still alive in the NCAA playoff hunt, but needs a victory against No. 19 USC on Saturday night to remain in contention.
This game is always played at a high level because of the Los Angeles rivalry. This year though, it is even more important because of the conference standings implications. The Trojans have won four of their past five contests and currently lead the red-hot Bruins by one-half-game in the South. USC has lost some heartbreakers this season, with all three of its defeats coming by a combined 13 points. The Trojans have done a nice job against ranked teams this year though, going 2-1, with road wins at Arizona and Stanford. UCLA had lost 12 of 13 games in this rivalry before Jim Mora took over as head coach, and he has led the Bruins to two straight wins in this series, including a 35-14 blowout last season. Quarterback Brett Hundley totaled 288 yards and two touchdowns in that victory. After two losses and two closer-than-expected games against California and Colorado, the Bruins have bounced back with double-digit victories against both Arizona and Washington. However, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two straight conference wins facing an opponent that just won by double-digits on the road are just 11-43 ATS (20%) over the past 10 seasons. But Trojans head coach Steve Sarkisian is 21-9 ATS (70%) after an ATS defeat in his coaching career.
The Trojans have had an up-and-down season, but one thing that has remained consistent is the passing game, which ranks 19th in the nation with 294.9 YPG. USC also ranks 29th in scoring (35.2 PPG) and 66th in rushing (163.1 YPG). Leading the offense is QB Cody Kessler (2,919 passing yards, 29 TD, 3 INT), who has completed a terrific 70% of his passes this season. The USC offense is very capable of big plays, but Kessler has done a tremendous job of not taking too many risks deep downfield. A big reason why the passing game is so effective is because of the threat of RB Javorius Allen (217 carries, 1,184 yards, 8 TD). He is a physical running back who can wear out a defense. Allen forces the opposing defenses to put another safety in the box, opening up favorable matchups on the outside. WR Nelson Agholor (82 rec, 1,079 yards, 10 TD) has emerged as one of the top playmakers in the country. Anytime that Kessler needs a big completion, he is looking Agholor’s way. He is also a key part of the Trojans return game. WR JuJu Smith (42 catches, 531 yards, 5 TD) appears to be the next great receiver at USC, drawing comparisons to Marqise Lee. Smith is speedster who can get behind the defense, but he is also a crisp route runner. The offense has been solid all season, but there is a lot of star power on a defense that ranks 38th in points allowed (23.3 PPG). Leading the way is DE Leonard Williams (6 sacks, 62 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3 FF), who is one of the best players in college football, and a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick in a future NFL draft. He is a rare combination of size and speed, and is nearly impossible to block. LB Hayes Pullard (75 tackles, 8 PD, 2.5 TFL) is the leading tackler on the team, taking advantage of the double teams that Williams demands. Sophomore S Su’a Cravens (52 tackles, 14 TFL, 5 sacks) is another star on the USC defense, and he will have to be ready to get after a quarterback who rushed for two touchdowns against the Trojans last year.
Entering this game, UCLA ranks 29th in FBS rushing (215.8 YPG), 31st in passing (273.4 YPG) and 32nd in scoring (34.7 PPG). Junior QB Brett Hundley (2,547 passing yards, 564 rushing yards, 24 total TD) is one of the top quarterbacks in the country, continuing to show he can make plays with both his legs and his arm. Like Kessler, he is very accurate throwing the ball, completing a stellar 72% of his passes. While he still has run effectively this season (4.2 YPC), he has not had to carry the ball as much because of the emergence of RB Paul Perkins (189 carries, 1,169 yards, 6 TD). The least amount of yards that he has rushed for in a game this year is 78, while rumbling for at least 100 yards in four games. He is also a threat through the air with 24 receptions this season. WR Jordan Payton (58 catches, 839 yards, 7 TD) is Hundley’s top receiver and a nice combination of size and speed. He does a great job of making plays after the catch. The Bruins defense has a lot of playmakers, but has been inconsistent at times, ranking 79th in the nation in points allowed (27.9 PPG). LB Eric Kendricks (114 tackles, 6 TFL, 2 INT) is the leading tackler on the team by a wide margin, and he does a great job of roaming all over the field. LB Myles Jack (69 tackles, 6 TFL) has excellent speed, and he will have the task of trying to slow down Allen. Junior DB Ishmael Adams (33 tackles, 2 INT) is a playmaker at the cornerback position who also can make his presence felt in the return game.
