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[CNOTES]

Colorado St. braces for Air Force's option


November 27, 2014


AIR FORCE ACADEMY, Colo. (AP) - Even as Colorado State rolls up wins this season, coach Jim McElwain can't quite forget the game in which he felt like his team quit.


Two years ago at Air Force, the Rams were drubbed 42-21 - and it could've been much, much worse, in McElwain's estimation.


He's harped on that loss with No. 21 Colorado State (10-1, 6-1 Mountain West) returning to Falcon Stadium on Friday and putting its nine-game winning streak on the line against Air Force (8-3, 4-3).


McElwain described that game on Sept. 29, 2012, as ''the worst day ever, whether I was playing or in my coaching career.''


''To see the quit and the disrespect for the game of football and Colorado State University that we showed that day,'' McElwain added. ''We've grown since then. Still, it doesn't deny the taste of walking off that field.''


This version of the Rams is off to their best start since 1994. What's more, they're trying to keep the pressure on Boise State, which leads the Mountain Division.


Colorado State needs to beat Air Force in the regular season finale and hope Utah State wins at Boise State - the Broncos are a nine-point favorite - to sneak into the league's title game.


Won't be easy for Colorado State, though, given that Air Force is 5-0 at home and has trailed for only 12 minutes, 47 seconds of game time.


For the second straight week, the Rams will encounter an option offense. They bottled up New Mexico in a 58-20 win, holding the Lobos' high-powered rushing attack in check most of the game. But they realize it's a different task with Air Force, which averages nearly 275 yards on the ground.


''I told the team after the New Mexico game to tear off the rearview mirror. That one is over,'' McElwain said. ''We've got a short week against a team we have the ultimate respect for.''


And one that embarrassed the Rams the last time they set foot in Falcon Stadium.


''They were staring at the clock in the second half and snapping it at one,'' McElwain said. ''They could have been at 100 (points). That was embarrassing.''


Falcons coach Troy Calhoun maintains they didn't let up, though.


''No, sir. We didn't,'' said Calhoun, whose team is 35-14 at home since he began in 2007. ''Everybody we play, we have the utmost respect for.


''We appreciate the chance to play football and whoever we play, we know on the other side they are going to work hard. That's the way the game should be played.''


Things to consider as Colorado State and Air Force contend for the Ram-Falcon Trophy, an awarded presented annually since 1980:


PASSING MARKS: Already the holder of 13 school records, quarterback Garrett Grayson goes for another at Air Force. The senior needs 11 passing attempts to break the mark held by Kelly Stouffer (1,015 attempts from 1984-86).


IRONMAN TRAINING: Tailback Dee Hart almost looked as if he were training for a triathlon last week. The graduate transfer from Alabama spent time working out in a pool leading up to the New Mexico game. That Saturday, he rode the stationary bike to stay loose in between offensive possessions. And when his number was called, he ran for 230 yards. He also tied a school record with six TDs - five rushing and another on a reception. It was a video game-like performance. ''I'm not keen on video games,'' Hart said. ''I like the field.''


MEETING OF THE MINDS: The other day, McElwain chatted with legendary CSU coach Sonny Lubick. They discussed all things Rams, including the rivalry with Air Force and the team's recent success. Lubick knows plenty about success, since he took the Rams to new heights in his 15-year tenure. ''(Lubick) was good enough to give me insight,'' McElwain said. ''It's invaluable.''


KALE IS GOOD FOR YOU: Don't underestimate senior QB Kale Pearson's arm just because he's running the option. Pearson's thrown for 14 TDs this season, which matches the most by a Falcons QB in the option era. Tim Jefferson also threw for 14 TDs in 2011. Bob Parker holds the all-time school record, throwing 21 TD passes in 1970.


TAILBACK: Leading rusher Jacobi Owens is out for the season with a foot injury. The Falcons are still loaded in the backfield with Devin Rushing, along with fullbacks Shayne Davern and D.J. Johnson. ''Whoever they put in there, we've got to tackle,'' McElwain said.

 

[CNOTES]

SC-Clemson brawl 10 years later


November 27, 2014


CLEMSON, S.C. (AP) - Clemson's Dabo Swinney can't ever forget his final few, horrified on-field moments with South Carolina coach Lou Holtz at Death Valley 10 years ago.


Swinney, the head coach who was then a Tigers assistant, had rushed the field to break up an ugly brawl that erupted near the end of Clemson's 29-7 rivalry win in 2004. When he looked left, Swinney spied Holtz on the ground clinging to a players' leg.


''Oh my,'' Swinney recalled thinking, ''This guy's fixing to get killed. It was total chaos.''


A decade later, the frightening scene still brings chills for those who witnessed it. The schools renew that rivalry on Saturday when South Carolina (6-5) travels to No. 23 Clemson (8-3).


In a state without pro teams, fans' focus has long been on the annual matchup between its two Football Bowl Subdivision powers - and fault line cuts straight through the heart of the Palmetto State.


In 2004, the rivalry was stained forever by the fight.


''It was an embarrassing chapter for both schools,'' Tommy Bowden, the Tigers head coach at the time, said this week.


Bowden said the seeds of a potential problem were all around, even before kickoff.


The famed ''Malice at the Palace'' brawl between the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers took place the night before the football game and dominated sports' highlight shows. Holtz was coaching his final game and the Gamecocks were eager to get a seventh win to better their chances to get to a bowl game to prolong the coach's career. Then the Southeastern Conference officiating crew allowed some Gamecock players to gather at the bottom of the hill for Clemson's traditional entrance. There were some pre-game shoves between the sides.


''With time to reflect, you could see it was a perfect storm that was building,'' Bowden said.


The bad blood finally boiled over with 5:48 to go in the game when Clemson's Bobby Williamson threw down Gamecocks quarterback Syvelle Newton.


Offensive lineman Chris White then pushed Williamson, and players rushed in from both sidelines as mobs of white-shirted Gamecocks and purple-jerseyed Tigers stretched nearly 60 yards along the center of the field. Local and state authorities came on the field to separate players in the five-minute brawl.


Clemson runner Yusef Kelly was photographed kicking a South Carolina player who was on the ground, then throwing a Gamecocks helmet into the stands. South Carolina tailback Daccus Turman punched Clemson's Duane Cole near the end zone as fans shouted and strained near the small fence.


Afterward, Holtz angrily chided his players.


''This is the first time that this has ever happened to me in a football game,'' Holtz said. ''There is no excuse, I take responsibility.''


Both teams declined bowl games as punishment. The SEC suspended six South Carolina players for one game while the Atlantic Coast Conference did the same for six Clemson participants.


''It was a pretty strict punishment,'' Bowden said, calculating that players lost about $2,000 in bowl stipends and gifts. ''But it helped us educate our players.''


Former Tigers defensive end Charles Bennett said he didn't fully understand how wrong the players were until he helped at a Special Olympics event several months later and one of the competitors told him, ''You shouldn't do that'' referring to the fight.


A year later, the teams organized a pre-game handshake where each side walked out from the sidelines in a line that stretched almost the entire field that South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier said put the melee to rest once and for all.


''That was a bad day for our state and I don't think either team has come close to anybody throwing a punch since then,'' said Spurrier, who in 2004 was only days away from starting his tenure as Gamecocks coach when fight occurred.


Bowden, now a college football TV analyst, said he doesn't hear much about the fight since leaving Clemson in the middle of 2008. He believes both sides have used what happened to teach players about what they can lose by letting their emotions and anger surface.


Clemson defensive tackle DeShawn Williams was a 12-year-old Clemson fan from Central, a five-minute drive from campus. Williams watched the fight unfold and couldn't imagine that taking place again.


''I don't want anything like that to happen,'' he said. ''We don't want to lose a bowl game like happened that year. We have respect for them.''

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF


Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 14


Friday/Saturday games


Top games of week


Iowa won 38-17 at Nebraska LY, its first win in last five seiries games; Cornhuskers won 13-7/42-7 in last two visits here. Nebraska allowed 87 points in losing last two games after an 8-1 start; they're 3-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread, 2-2 SU on road. Iowa lost three of last five games, losing 26-24 at home to Wisconsin last week. Home teams are 29-26 vs spread in Big 14 games this season.


Arkansas blanked LSU/Ole Miss at home last two weeks; they're bowl eligible now, but are 1-3 on road, with only win 49-28 at Texas Tech in mid-September. Missouri might be quietest 9-2 team in country, taking last five games, three on road, holding four of five opponents under 300 total yards. Both of Mizzou's losses are at home, one was to Indiana, so that could explain lack of hype around them.


Stanford won its last six games with UCLA, five by 8+ points, covering five of six; Cardinal won 35-17/35-0 in last two visits here, but lost three of last four road games, winning rivalry game at Cal six days ago, losing other three by 3-16-29 points. UCLA won last five games, beating USC in its rivalry game Saturday; QB Hundley said he's going to go to NFL next season. Bruins covered last three games after a 1-7 start vs spread.


Underdogs are 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten Arizona-ASU games, 6-2 last eight played here. Sun Devils won 41-34/58-21 last two years; they are 5-2 in last seven visits to Tucson. 9-2 Arizona has five wins by seven or less points; they're 5-1 at home, losing to USC; underdogs covered four of their last five at home. ASU allowed 32.3 ppg in its last three games, after giving up 12 ppg in three before that; they're 4-1 SU on road.


10-1 Colorado State won last nine games, scoring 47.5 ppg in last four; Rams lost seven of last eight games with Air Force, losing last five here, four by 21+ points- favorites covered five of last six in series. Air Force lost at San Diego State last week but is 4-0 at home, winning SU as home underdogs vs Boise State/Navy. Mountain West home dogs are just 5-15 vs spread this season. Rams' only loss was 37-24 at Boise Sept. 6th.


Rest of card
-- Virginia Tech won its last ten games with Viginia, which scored total of 27 points in last four series games and covered just two of last seven visits to Blacksburg. Both teams are 5-6; winner is bowl eligible.


-- Bowling Green won its last six games with Ball State, winning three in row here by 41-16 average; Falcons are 0-3 as home favorite this season. Ball State is 3-2 as a road dog this season.


-- Western Michigan won its last six games, covered last nine; they lost last five games with Northern Illinois. four by 14+ points. Huskies won their last five games. Western is 4-0 as a favorite this year.


-- Buffalo won last two games with UMass, 32-3/29-19; not sure how much snow disrupted Bulls' practices last couple weeks. UMass won its last two home games, covered six of last seven overall.


-- Unbeaten Marshall covered five of last seven games; they're 3-1 as a home favorite this year. Western Kentucky won its last three games, scoring 44 ppg; they're 2-3 as an underdog this year.


-- Toledo is 13-1 in last 14 games with Eastern Michigan, winning seven in row (6-1 vs spread), scoring 49 ppg. Favorites are 5-1-1 vs spread in Toledo's last seven visits to Ypsilanti.


-- East Carolina won last four games with Tulsa, scoring 51 ppg in last three and dogs covering three of four; this is Pirates' first visit to Tulsa in five years. ECU covered one of last six games, losing last two on road.


-- Houston won seven of last eight games with SMU; only loss was last visit here, 72-42 two years ago; Mustangs have fallen apart since, losing all 10 games this year, covering one of five at home.


-- Navy (-7.5) beat South Alabama 42-14 at home LY, running ball for 337 yards; Middies scored 45.8 ppg in last four games, are 2-1 in true road games. USA is 0-5 vs spread as an underdog this year.


-- South Florida won four of last five games with Central Florida, losing 23-20 to Knights LY; USF lost three of last four games, with only win 14-13 at winless SMU. UCF won last two games, 31-7/53-7.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Friday, November 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Arizona State at Arizona
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats (-2.5, 62.5)

No. 12 Arizona will host No. 13 Arizona State on Friday in a Territorial Cup battle that could very well determine the Pac-12 South's representative in the conference championship game. The Wildcats have won three consecutive contests and another victory - along with a UCLA loss to Stanford - would see Rich Rodriguez's team punch its ticket to the title tilt against Oregon. However, Arizona has lost two straight and three of the last four meetings in the series.

Arizona State also needs the Bruins to fall to the Cardinal in order to reach the Dec. 5 Pac-12 Championship Game at Levi's Stadium. The Sun Devils have won six out of their last seven games, but their unexpected loss to unranked Oregon State on Nov. 15 took them out of the driver's seat in the division. Arizona State has lit up the scoreboard in its last two meetings with Arizona - scoring 99 combined points - and hopes for more of the same as it looks to advance to its second straight Pac-12 title tilt.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: The lines have not moved from their opening mark of Arizona -2.5 and 62.5.

INJURY REPORT: Arizona State - WR Jaelen Strong (Prob-Concussion), DB Ezekiel Bishop (Ques-Knee), DL Jaxon Hood (Ques-Personal) Arizona - QB Anu Solomon (Ques-Ankle), S Trevor Emisch (Ques-Arm), LB DeAndre Miller (Ques-Shoulder)

WEATHER FORECAST: Clear sunny skies are expected for the game. Temperatures should hit a high of 80°F and winds gusting to five mph.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Taylor Kelly went 15-of-25 for 232 yards and four touchdowns in the 52-31 win over Washington State. D.J. Foster - who is the only active FBS running back to gain 900 rushing yards and over 500 receiving yards this season - ran for three touchdowns versus the Cougars. Jaelen Strong - who leads the team with 71 receptions for 982 yards and nine touchdowns - is expected to return to the lineup after missing the Washington State game with a concussion.

ABOUT ARIZONA (9-2 SU, 4-7 ATS, 3-8 O/U): Freshman quarterback Anu Solomon accounted for 180 yards and a touchdown before sitting out the second half with an ankle injury in the 42-10 win over Utah and his status for Friday's game in uncertain. Nick Wilson was named the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week after rushing for a career-high 218 yards and three touchdowns versus the Utes. Wilson has scored three touchdowns in each of his last two games and became the only freshman in program history to top the 1,000 yard mark (1,085) in a single season.

TRENDS:

*Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Wildcats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 6-0 in Sun Devils last 6 games following a ATS win.
*Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 60.62 percent of users are backing Arizona -2.5 with 65.8 percent taking the over.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Friday, November 28


Western Michigan still top play against spread

There has been no better spread team in college football this season than Western Kentucky. The Broncos are a stellar 10-1 ATS this season, with their one failure to cover coming in the first game.

In those 10 consecutive covers, the Broncos have beaten the spread by an average of 12.1 points per game. Those games saw Western Michigan favored four times, dogs five times and one game closed as a pick'em.

WMU are 7.5-point home faves against Northern Illinois Friday.


Poor defense has made Tulsa top over play

It may come as a surprise that Tulsa is leading the nation in anything, but they are currently tied for the most overs in the nation. The Golden Hurricane have a 9-2 over/under mark, thanks in large part to a horrible defense.

Tulsa is giving up 484.6 yards per game, while opposing teams are averaging 38.4 points per game.

The Golden Hurricanes host East Carolina with a current total of 66.5.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Tip Sheet


November 26, 2014




**Stanford at UCLA**


-- As of Wednesday, most betting shops had UCLA (9-2 straight up, 4-7 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 50. Gamblers can take the Cardinal on the money line for a +180 return (risk $100 to win $180).


-- Jim Mora Jr.'s squad has won five in a row and covered the number in three straight after thumping arch-rival Southern Cal 38-20 as a four-point home favorite last weekend. Brett Hundley threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for another score. Paul Perkins ran for 93 yards and one TD.


-- UCLA has compiled a 2-3 spread record as a home favorite this season. The Bruins are 2-4 ATS at home, as they also lost and failed to cover in a home loss to Oregon. On Mora's watch the last three seasons, UCLA is 8-6 ATS in 14 games as a home favorite.


-- For the season, Hundley has completed 72.0 percent of his throws for 2,873 yards with a 20/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The true junior, who will turn pro after his team's bowl game, has rushed for 566 yards and eight TDs.


-- Stanford (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) owns a 2-1-1 spread record in four games as a road underdog during David Shaw's four-year tenure.


-- Stanford will have to face the Bruins without its best WR Ty Montgomery, who is 'out' due to a shoulder injury. Montgomery has a team-best 61 receptions for 604 yards and three touchdowns. Montgomery has produced 1,220 all-purpose yards, in addition to one rushing score and two TDs on special teams.


-- Stanford cruised to a 38-17 win last weekend at California, hooking up its backers as a 5.5-point road favorite. Remound Wright ran for 92 yards and four TDs to lead the way. The Cardinal defense forced five turnovers by the Bears, who gave up a fumble and threw four interceptions between a pair of QBs.


-- The 2014 version of Stanford hasn't measured up to the previous ones under Shaw or in the last year of Jim Harbaugh, who took this program from the abyss to a 12-1 record in 2010. Since then, the Cardinal has won at least 11 games in three consecutive seasons. One of the reasons for this team's demise has been mediocre QB play from Kevin Hogan, who has a 2/3 TD-INT in the team's five defeats.


-- Since 2009, Stanford has won six in a row over UCLA, going 5-1 ATS in the process. When these Pac-12 rivals met last year, the Cardinal captured a 24-10 win as a 4.5-point home 'chalk.' Tyler Gaffney ran for 171 yards and two TDs, while the Stanford defense intercepted Brett Hundley twice.


-- The 'under' is 8-2 overall for Stanford, 4-1 in its five road assignments.


-- The 'under' is 6-4-1 overall for UCLA, 3-1-1 in its home games.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.


**Virginia at Virginia Tech**


-- As of Wednesday, most books had Virginia (5-6 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 40.5. This rivalry game will determine which team's season is done and which squad is headed to the postseason.


-- Va. Tech (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) has the nation's longest bowl streak with 21 consecutive postseason appearances. That string of bowl games and a 10-game stranglehold over the Commonwealth Cup is on the line for the Hokies, who have been decimated by injuries and have lost four of their last five games both SU and ATS.


-- Frank Beamer's team dropped a 6-3 decision at Wake Forest in double overtime last weekend, failing to cover the spread as a 13.5-point road favorite. It was the first FBS game to have a scoreless regulation since 2005. The Hokies hadn't lost to the Demon Deacons since 1984.


-- Va. Tech QB Michael Brewer has struggled all season long and the health of his cast hasn't helped his cause. Three RBs have gone down to season-ending injuries, in addition to a slew of offensive linemen. Brewer has a 15/13 TD-INT ratio this year but to his credit, he's only been intercepted twice in the last five games.


-- Mike London's team snapped a four-game losing streak by smashing Miami 30-13 as a 3.5-point home underdog last week. The defense held explosive Miami RB Duke Johnson to a season-low 88 rushing yards. Khalek Shepherd rushed for 95 yards and one TD to lead the way for the Cavs, who are winless with a 2-2 spread record on the road going into Blacksburg on Friday night.


-- Virginia RB Kevin Parks has rushed for a team-best 675 yards and four TDs, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. He left the win over UM with a concussion, but UVA is hopeful that he'll be ready to play by Friday night. Gamblers should check his status.


-- Assuming this line hold with UVA as the short 'chalk,' we'll note that the Cavs are 1-2 ATS as road favorites during London's five-year tenure.


-- Va. Tech has lost four of its six home games at Lane Stadium this season, limping to a 1-5 spread record in the process.


-- The 'under' has cashed in six straight UVA games to improve to 8-3 overall and 3-1 in its four road assignments. The Cavs have seen their games average 50.5 combined points per game.


-- The 'under' is 7-3 overall for Va. Tech, 3-2 in its home games. The Hokies have seen their games average a combined score of 43.7 PPG.

 

[CNOTES]

By Dave Cokin

Here’s this week’s Wise Guy Report for the colleges. This will be the final report for season, as it’s the last full card of the year. Info gathered from various sources within Nevada, as well as underground shops stateside plus offshore outlets. Comments are not mine, and these are not necessarily plays I’ll be on. Hope this report has been enjoyable and helpful!

316 Virginia Tech has gotten some fairly steady sharp money since the opener on Sunday night. The Hokies are at home in a rivalry battle with Virginia.

Heavy wise guy action on 320 Western Michigan, and the Broncos went through key numbers in a hurry as they prep for a showdown with Northern illinois.

327 Nebraska is drawing a bit of pro dough. But a couple of my sources believe that Iowa money will show between now and Friday.

There has been some wise guy support for 349 Old Dominion as road dogs at Florida Atlantic. It’s not heavy, but steady according to what I was told.

Sharps have been trying to beat 352 Duke for much of the season, and succeeded the last two weeks. But it’s an about face this week, with the Blue Devils finally attracting some professional action as they host Wake Forest.

The smarts are backing 363 North Carolina State in the Wolfpack’s rivalry clash with North Carolina.

Nothing much showed early, but wise guy dollars started to trickle in on 367 Purdue on Tuesday. The Boilermakers are small road dogs at Indiana.

383 Utah State is attracting some support from the sharps as a good sized dog against Boise State.

The sharps lost with 387 Washington State last week, but the Cougars are again drawing some action for the Apple Cup game with Washington. But not nearly the avalanche of dollars that showed last week.

403 Florida is a very popular play. The sharps hit the opening number decisively and the steam chasers are out in force as the Florida State fade machine rolls on.

Another rivalry dog getting some smart money action is 417 Kentucky as the Wildcats visit Louisville on Saturday.

Last but not least, 424 Troy is getting wise guy play as a home dog against UL Lafayette.

 

[CNOTES]

Iron Bowl Preview


November 28, 2014




One year after the phrase 'Kick Six' became a part of common football vernacular thanks to Chris Davis's 109-yard return of a missed Alabama field goal, one that provided the wildest finish to an Iron Bowl in the history of college's most bitter rivalry, Alabama and Auburn are set to collide again Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa.


Before they do, however, we must review the details of what has undoubtedly caused Crimson Tide fans many sleepless nights over the last 364 days. First, we have to note how Alabama failed to put last year's game away on multiple occasions in the fourth quarter.


After A.J. McCarron put the Tide in front 28-21 with 10:28 remaining by perfectly hitting a streaking Amari Cooper down the right sideline for a school-record 99-yard touchdown pass, the Tigers could have been put out of their misery by a 28-yard field goal from Cade Foster with less than six minutes remaining. However, a false start penalty took the 10-point lead off the board, and then Foster hooked the subsequent 33-yarder wide left.


Deep in AU territory minutes later and facing a fourth-and-inches opportunity from the 13, Nick Saban decided against turning to Foster, who had already missed three times. Auburn stuffed a running play, giving it one last chance to pull even.


Gus Malzahn's team took advantage this time, scoring on a 39-yard TD pass from Nick Marshall to Sammie Coates on a play that tricked everyone at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Marshall rolled to his left as if he was running a wide sweep with zero intentions of throwing the ball. Coates at first played coy as if he was blocking for Marshall, only to release late behind the 'Bama defense and catch Marshall's throw in stride to knot the game at 28-28 following the ensuing PAT.


But 'Bama advanced to the AU 40 and out of bounds as time expired. Saban challenged the play to see if T.J. Yeldon had gone out with one tick left. The referees agreed after a video review, granting the Tide one more second to attempt a 57-yard field goal. This time around, Saban would go with Adam Griffith, whose attempt fell short by a yard.


Davis fielded the kick and ran up the middle, only to see an opening to the left. He picked up a couple of nice blocks, barely avoided stepping out of bounds on the sideline and was in the clear by the time he crossed midfield. A convoy of teammates joined him for the last 20 or so yards of his stride into the end zone.


All hell broke loose at that point. In the CBS broadcast booth, Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson sat silent for nearly two minutes. Saban threw his headset in disbelief. McCarron sprinted toward the Alabama locker room, only to be met by his bride-to-be and national heartthrob Katherine Webb with a hug and words of consolation.


Meanwhile, Auburn fans understandably went berserk. It stormed the field without hesitation despite the thorny bushes in their way, ones planted after Georgia fans destroyed the field decades before after an improbable victory on The Plains.


Forget the Stanford-Cal finish with laterals galore with the band on the field. To hell with Kordell Stewart's bomb at The Big House or 'The Immaculate Deflection' at Jordan-Hare against UGA just two weeks before. This was, without question, the wildest, craziest and most improbable finish to a game in college football history.


And the consequences were mind-boggling. Alabama would not get a chance to win a third consecutive national title. Auburn, one year removed from a 3-9 season and a 49-0 loss to 'Bama, was the winner of the SEC West, with its ticket punched for Atlanta to face Missouri in the SEC Championship Game for the right to play in the final BCS title game.


Just like last season, Alabama comes into the Iron Bowl controlling its own destiny to win a fourth national title during Saban's sensational tenure. Unlike last year, Auburn hasn't caught breaks galore and simply finds itself in the spoiler role.


Alabama (10-1 straight up, 3-8 against the spread) has won six in a row since suffering its lone loss by a 23-17 count at Ole Miss on Oct. 4. When Saban's team knocked off top-ranked Mississippi St. 25-20 two weeks ago, it took control of the No. 1 slot in the College Football Playoff rankings.


Auburn (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS) fell out of contention in the SEC West with back-to-back losses to Texas A&M and Georgia. The Tigers dropped a 41-38 decision to the Aggies as 23-point home favorites. One week later without top WR Duke Williams, they got smashed 34-7 at Georgia as three-point road underdogs.


As of early Thursday, most betting shops had the Crimson Tide favored by nine with a total of 53.5 points. Gamblers can take at the Tigers to win outright for a +290 payout (risk $100 to win $290).


Alabama is unbeaten in six home games this year, going 2-3-1 ATS. However, we should note that the Tide hasn't been a single-digit home 'chalk' this season. In fact, they haven't been favored by single digits in Tuscaloosa since losing in overtime by a 9-6 score to LSU as 4.5-point home favorites in 2011.


Auburn has played a murderous road schedule this year. It began with a 20-14 win at Kansas St. on a Thursday night in September. On Oct. 11, the Tigers took a 38-23 beating at Mississippi St. They survived a 60-minute war in Oxford by beating Ole Miss, 35-31. In its last road assignment, though, UGA avenged last year's loss with authority.


As a road underdog under Malzahn, AU owns a 3-1 spread record with a pair of outright victories.


After missing consecutive games, Williams will return to the starting lineup in Tuscaloosa. He has made a team-best 38 catches for 609 yards and five TDs. Marshall has a 15/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 11 rushing scores. Marshall has 1,859 passing yards and 731 rushing yards.


Cameron Artis-Payne has rushed for a team-high 1,410 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Coates has 25 receptions for 511 yards and a pair of TD grabs.


When McCarron departed for the pros, most pundits felt like FSU transfer Jake Coker would win the starting QB job. But that hasn't happened and senior Blake Sims has exceeded any and all expectations. Sims has completed 62.0 percent of his throws for 2,662 yards with a 19/4 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 252 yards and five scores, and a pair of scrambles on third-and-long plays were the difference in the game-sealing drive against Mississippi St.


Sims has the country's best WR in Amari Cooper, who will play Saturday despite leaving last week's win over Western Carolina with a minor knee injury. Cooper has 90 catches for 1,349 yards and 11 TDs. Yeldon has run for a team-best 758 yards and six TDs, while Derrick Henry has 682 rushing yards and seven scores.


Alabama is second in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 14.5 points per game. This unit is also second in the country against the run. Meanwhile, Auburn's defense has been an unmitigated disaster in its last five SEC games, giving up at least 31 points each time out.


The 'under' is on a 5-1 run in 'Bama's last six games. The 'under' is 6-4 overall for the Tide, 3-2 in its home games with a total. They have seen an average combined score of 49.5 PPG.


The 'over' is 6-5 overall for Auburn, but the 'under' has cashed in three of its four road assignments. The Tigers have seen their games average a combined score of 58.5 PPG.


Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**


-- Florida has won outright in four of its last five trips to Tallahassee. The last time FSU tasted a defeat was when Will Muschamp's squad went into Doak Campbell Stadium and won a 37-26 decision in 2012. The Gators were 7.5-point underdogs as of early Thursday.


-- As of early Thursday, there was still no line for South Carolina at Clemson due to the uncertain status of Clemson freshman QB Deshaun Watson. He has missed nearly all of the last six games, playing in just the first quarter of games against Louisville and Ga. Tech before leaving with injuries. Dabo Swinney's team is 0-6 ATS in those contests.


-- South Carolina has won five in a row over Clemson, with each victory coming by double-digit margins.


-- Multiple reports late Thursday night indicated that Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris has agreed to accept the head-coaching job at SMU. Although this space thinks the Swinney-to-Florida rumors/reports this week have been erroneous, they can't help the focus of the Tigers going into this rivalry game against their hated enemies in the Palmetto State.


-- As of early Thursday, most spots had Mississippi St. favored by 2.5 at Ole Miss in the most anticipated Egg Bowl in decades. After getting injured in last week's loss at Arkansas, Rebels' QB Bo Wallace has the all clear to play against the Bulldogs.


-- Tennessee won't have All-SEC LB A.J. Johnson or star WR Marquez North for Saturday's regular-season finale at Vanderbilt. Also, WR Jason Croom is a question mark after injuring his knee at Tuesday's practice. Butch Davis called Croom's injury a minor one to his hamstring, but that notion has been disputed by ever media member in Knoxville who witnessed the injury during the portion of practice that's open to reporters.


-- Georgia is a 13-point home favorite vs. Ga. Tech. In his first career start last year, Hutson Mason rallied the Bulldogs from a double-digit halftime deficit against the Yellow Jackets. Mason helped UGA force overtime and it eventually won in the second extra session on The Flats in Midtown Atlanta.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Top Action


November 28, 2014




MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (5-6) at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (10-1)
TV/Time: ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag. Line: Ohio State -20.5, Total: 51.5


No. 6 Ohio State has already clinched a berth in the Big Ten title, but a win against rival Michigan would put the team closer to making the college football playoffs.


Things have not been easy for Michigan (4-7 ATS) this year, as the Wolverines are playing for the right to be bowl eligible in this game. They were leading last week against Maryland, but allowed the Terrapins to come back and get the 23-16 victory. Embattled head coach Brady Hoke has done a nice job of getting his team ready to play after a loss, as the Wolverines are 10-2 ATS following a defeat in his tenure.


Any hope of reaching the inaugural playoffs appeared to be over for the Buckeyes early, as Ohio State lost at home to Virginia Tech in Week 2. However, things have changed since then, and the team has not experienced another loss, going 9-0 SU (6-3 ATS). Ohio State has been great coming off a home game in the past two seasons, going 9-2 ATS in this scenario while outscoring opponents 48 to 22 on average.


These two teams played a classic game last year in Ann Arbor, with the 17-point favorite Buckeyes getting a stop on a two-point conversion in the final minutes to secure the 42-41 victory. In that game, Michigan QB Devin Gardner had his best collegiate game, throwing for 451 yards and four touchdowns.


Both teams are in great shape on the injury front as Wolverines DB Delano Hill (suspension served) and Buckeyes DB Armani Reeves (head) and RB Bri'onte Dunn (leg) have all been upgraded to probable.


The biggest reason for the Wolverines struggles this season has been because of inconsistent play on the offensive side of the ball. Michigan ranks 63rd in the nation in rushing (166.6 YPG), 115th in scoring (20.3 PPG) and 116th in passing (162.8 YPG). QB Devin Gardner (1,663 pass yards, 8 TD, 14 INT) has had a lot of problems this year, but he has shown the ability to play through injuries his entire career. In the game last year against Ohio State, he could barely walk, but continued to compete.


Against the Buckeyes, the Wolverines are going to have to get a big performance from sophomore RB De’Veon Smith (105 carries, 515 yards, 6 TD). Smith, an Ohio native, is a strong and physical running back who will be asked to help the Wolverines control the clock. At wide receiver, the 6-foot-5 Devin Funchess (55 catches, 625 yards, 4 TD) is a big target, but he has only one touchdown since a season-opening victory against Appalachian State. While the offense has had its struggles, the defense of the Wolverines has been much better this year, ranking 21st in FBS points allowed (21.6 PPG). Leading the way for the Michigan defense is LB Jake Ryan (104 tackles, 13 TFL, 3 sacks). Ryan does a nice job of running all over the field, and causes a lot of havoc in the opponent’s backfield.


Senior DE Brennen Beyer (34 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks) is the Wolverines player that puts the most pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but that will be a very difficult challenge against ultra-talented J.T. Barrett on Saturday.


The offense of the Buckeyes has been as good as any since the loss to Virginia Tech, ranking 5th in scoring (44.3 PPG), 14th in rushing (259.6 YPG) and 49th in passing (251.7 YPG). Freshman QB J.T. Barrett (2,658 passing yards, 849 rushing yards, 42 total TD) has been tremendous as of late, bouncing back from the loss against the Hokies by scoring at least 3 touchdowns in eight of the team's nine straight wins.


Head coach Urban Meyer’s offense demands the quarterback be able to make plays with his legs, and Barrett can do just that. RB Ezekiel Elliot (180 carries, 1,061 yards, 8 TD) is a load for opponents to tackle. At 225 pounds, Elliot is a powerful running back who can also run away from the defense. His ability to run has helped make Barrett so difficult to stop on the zone read. There are a lot of receivers who can make plays for Ohio State, as WR Devin Smith (25 catches, 610 yards, 8 TD), Michael Thomas (37 catches, 605 yards, 8 TD) and Jalin Marshall (24 catches, 347 yards, 6 TD) all have game-breaking speed. Marshall has had some problems with fumbles, but he is a special player who showed what he can do against Indiana last week with five catches for 95 yards and 3 TD. Smith is the true home-run threat on the team, as he has five receptions of at least 42 yards.


While the offense gets the majority of the talk, the defense is also very good, allowing just 22.5 PPG (30th in FBS). The unit is led by DL Joey Bosa (11.5 sacks, 43 tackles, 18 TFL), who at times, is impossible for opponents to block. He is relentless with his pressure on the quarterback, and allows teammates easier opportunities because he is constantly getting double-teamed. LB Joshua Perry (99 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3 sacks) is the leading tackler on the team, but he can also make plays in pass coverage as well. The Buckeyes do a great job of intercepting the ball, as DB Vonn Bell, S Tyvis Powell and CB Doran Grant each have three interceptions on the season.


NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (7-4) at USC TROJANS (7-4)
TV/Time: FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag. Line: USC -7, Total: 63


Two of college football’s elite programs, Notre Dame and USC Trojans, meet in a late-season battle on Saturday afternoon to wrap up underachieving regular seasons. Notre Dame kicked off the season with some tremendous play as they won their first six games SU while going 4-2 ATS. Since that time, they’ve fallen apart and have just one victory in their past five tries (1-4 ATS) while losing three of their contests by four or fewer points. Last week they lost to 2.5-point underdog Louisville at home by a score of 31-28. Notre Dame was held scoreless over the past 14:55 as Louisville secured the win.


The Trojans have spread out their losses and are 6-5 ATS on the season. They took on UCLA last week in what was supposed to be a close game, as the spread was 3.5 points in favor of the host Bruins, but UCLA had other plans as it blew out USC by a score of 38-20. The Trojans managed just 276 yards of total offense in the contest while each team turned the ball over twice.


The Fighting Irish have come away with victories in this matchup each of the past two seasons (both SU and ATS) while winning by an average of 6.5 PPG. Last year they beat the Trojans 14-10 at home as two-point favorites in a defensive struggle where the two programs combined to put up a mere 625 yards of offense. Overall since 1992, USC is 6-4-1 SU (6-5 ATS) when playing hosting in this series, but has lost in each of the past two meetings in Los Angeles. Bettors should keep an eye on the fact that Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly is 27-13 ATS (68%) as an underdog in his coaching career, while the Trojans are a perfect 7-0 ATS after an SU loss over the past two seasons.


As far as injuries are concerned, the Irish will be without star LB Joe Schmidt (ankle) for the rest of the season and will likely be without the services of DL Sheldon Day (hip) who is listed as doubtful. Meanwhile, USC is concerned about RB Tre Madden, who is questionable with a toe injury.


Despite its recent struggles, Notre Dame has still put forth one of the better passing offenses in the nation. Notre Dame's passing attack is gaining 298.2 YPG (16th in FBS) while adding 155.1 rushing YPG as they've scored 34.7 PPG (34th in nation). QB Everett Golson (3,280 pass yards, 29 TD, 13 INT) has really struggled with turnovers, by tossing at least one pick in each of his past eight games, but has also thrown for over 300 yards in five different games this season. He can also get the job done with his legs, as he has rushed for 291 yards (2.6 YPC) and 8 TD this year.


HB Tarean Folston (802 rush yards, 5 TD) joins Golson in the backfield and has provided the Irish with solid performances lately as he has gone over 100 yards in four of the past five games, while averaging 107.8 YPG in that time. WR William Fuller (962 rec yards, 14 TD) has been one of the best red-zone threats in the country and has caught at least one touchdown pass in all but one game this season. He’s had two of his best performances in the past two weeks as he has averaged 139 YPG with four total touchdowns.


The defense started the year out allowing a mere 12.0 PPG over the first five games, but has since given up 40.3 PPG and currently ranks 73rd in the nation in scoring defense (27.5 PPG). The loss of LB Joe Schmidt (65 tackles, 2 INT) does not help, as LB Jaylon Smith (88 tackles, 2 sacks) takes over the leadership role on this side of the ball.


The Trojans have had some big weeks offensively and currently rank 20th in FBS with 287.5 passing YPG while going for 153.9 YPG on the ground. All of that adds up to 33.8 PPG which is good enough for 36th in nation.


QB Cody Kessler (3,133 pass yards, 30 TD, 4 INT) has been phenomenal while hitting on 70% of his passes for 8.4 YPA and has thrown 19 TD with 3 INT over his past five games. He did not play very well against the Bruins last week though, and was 22-for-34 (65%) with 214 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.


HB Javorius Allen (1,244 rush yards, 9 TD) is a workhorse who has attempted 21 rushes per game while averaging 5.4 YPC. He has hit the century mark in yards eight times on the year, but has gone for just 60 YPG (3.4 YPC) in the past two contests. WR Nelson Agholor (1,103 rec yards, 10 TD) had a meager three catches for 24 yards last week in the loss to UCLA, but was tremendous in the previous four contests, averaging 168.5 receiving YPG and scoring six touchdowns.


Their defense has been decent while giving up 24.6 PPG behind the efforts of LB Hayes Pullard (84 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 1 INT), DL Leonard Williams (66 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT) and DB Su’a Cravens (56 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 INT, 1 TD).


OREGON DUCKS (10-1) at OREGON STATE BEAVERS (5-6)
TV/Time: ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag. Line: Oregon -19.5, Total: 67


No. 2 Oregon looks to finish the regular season off with a seventh straight victory when it visits in-state rival Oregon State.


Known as the Civil War, the matchup between the Ducks and Beavers usually provide fans with some entertaining football. Last season, 24-point favorite Oregon found itself in a tough battle against the Beavers, winning the game 36-35 in Eugene. QB Marcus Mariota had a big performance with 338 yards of total offense and three touchdowns.


The Ducks have not lost to Oregon State since 2007, when they fell 38-31, and since then are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in this series with at least 37 points in each contest. The defense of Oregon has been opportunistic, and when the Ducks force at least two turnovers, they are 10-2 ATS the past two seasons. But even though OSU has lost five of its past six games (SU and ATS), it has turned the ball over just six times in those half-dozen contests. The Beavers are still playing for an opportunity to get into a bowl, and are 72-50 ATS (59%) after the first month of the season under head coach Mike Riley.


Both teams have some injury concerns for this matchup, as Oregon lists four players as questionable -- RB Thomas Tyner (ankle), DL Alex Balducci (leg) and OLs Hroniss Grasu (leg) and Matt Pierson (knee). Oregon State will not have DT Brandon Bennett-Jackson (suspension), but RB Storm Woods (undisclosed) has been upgraded to probable for Saturday.


The Oregon offense ranks 3rd in the nation in scoring (45.8 PPG), 14th in passing (302.1 YPG) and 23rd in rushing (235.3 YPG), once again proving to be one of the elite units in the country. It all starts with QB Marcus Mariota (3,103 pass yards, 597 rush yards, 41 total TD), who has 10.0 yards per pass attempt and only two interceptions in 309 throws. The ground game of the Ducks is once again dominating, but they are doing it a different way. RB Royce Freeman (187 carries, 1,050 yards, 16 TD) is a much bigger back than the Ducks have used in the past, but he has completely changed the offense.


WR Byron Marshall (660 rec yards, 318 rush yards, 5 total TD) has become the favorite target of Mariota. The deep threat in the passing game is WR Devon Allen (34 catches, 613 rec yards, 6 TD), who is a track star with the ability to get behind the defense. On defense, the Ducks are led by senior DB Erick Dargan (5 INT, 77 tackles, 2.5 TFL), who has emerged as one of the top defenders in the Pac-12.


The defense ranks 42nd in the nation in scoring (23.6 PPG), but has allowed only 17.6 PPG in the past three games. LBs Joe Walker (67 tackles, 7 TFL and a 100-yard fumble return) and Derrick Malone (66 tackles, 2.5 TFL) are two players who have continued to improve throughout the season.


Oregon State has had a tough season on offense, ranking 25th in FBS passing (280.8 YPG), but only 84th in scoring (26.3 PPG) and 114th in rushing (115.5 YPG). QB Sean Mannion (3,021 pass yards, 14 TD, 8 INT) has thrown for more career yards (13,438) than any quarterback in the history of the Pac-12, but has had a very difficult season. He has battled through some injuries this year, and his completion percentage is the lowest of his career.


Another reason why the passing game has struggled is because of a lack production from the rushing game. RBs Terron Ward (133 carries, 696 yards, 10 TD) and Storm Woods (99 carries, 638 yards, 4 TD) are both very talented running backs, but they are better as third-down backs and catching passes out of the backfield. They aren’t the type of guys that are going to run the ball 20+ times per game. WRs Victor Bolden (68 catches, 785 yards, 2 TD) and Jordan Villamin (34 catches, 572 yards, 6 TD) are two receivers who have shown the ability to make some plays after the catch.


The offense will need to be able to score a lot of points, as the defense will have all kinds of trouble slowing down the Ducks. OSU's defensive unit ranks 91st in the nation in scoring defense (30.2 PPG allowed). Senior S Ty Zimmerman (83 tackles, 3 INT) is the leader on the defense, as he can make plays in both stopping the run and in covering receivers. LBs D.J. Alexander (63 tackles, 10 TFL, 3 sacks) and Michael Doctor (62 tackles, 5 TFL, 3 INT) are two other players to watch out for on this unit.

 

[CNOTES]

SEC Rivalry Games


November 28, 2014




MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (10-1) at OLE MISS REBELS (8-3)
TV/Time: CBS, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag. Line: Mississippi State -2, Total: 49.5


The Egg Bowl begins Saturday as cross-state rivals, No. 4 Mississippi State and No. 19 Ole Miss, meet for an important SEC matchup on Saturday afternoon.


Mississippi State remains one of the best teams in the nation with the only blemish on its record this season being a close 25-20 loss to Alabama just a couple of weeks ago. Besides that, the Bulldogs have been dominant, defeating their other 10 opponents by an average of 23.2 PPG and going 7-4 ATS on the year. Last week they earned a breather against Vanderbilt as they were 29.5-point favorites and rolled to a 51-0 victory. They totaled 502 yards of offense in the rout, including 283 yards from their rushing attack (5.5 YPC), and forced three turnovers while scoring 37 points in the first half.


Ole Miss kicked off the year by blowing away everybody with a perfect 7-0 record (SU and ATS), but has since gone 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS) in the past four contests. Last week was the Rebels' biggest letdown of the season as they were shut out by Arkansas on the road by a score of 30-0 as 3-point favorites. They turned the ball over a whopping six times in the embarrassing loss as they actually outgained their opponent 316 to 311, but failed to get anything done with the rushing game (63 yards).


This rivalry has seen the home team come away the victor in each of the past three seasons with Mississippi State getting two wins (both SU and ATS) in that time. The average margin of victory in the games was 17.3 PPG while the Bulldogs pulled out a close one last season, winning 17-10 as 4-point underdogs at home in a defensive battle where the teams combined for a mere 614 yards of offense and six turnovers. Bettors should know that Mississippi State is 12-4 ATS (75%) when playing with six or less days of rest over the past two seasons, while Ole Miss is 20-8 ATS (71%) in games played on turf over the past three seasons.


The Bulldogs come into this heated rivalry with no injuries to significant players, while WR Laquon Treadwell (ankle) is out for the season on the Rebels side of the ball.


Mississippi State has put together a great offense that can attack from both the passing game (264.9 YPG) or rushing attack (246.8 YPG, 19th in nation) while scoring 39.0 PPG (12th in FBS). QB Dak Prescott (2,714 pass yards, 23 TD, 10 INT) has been efficient with at least 1 TD pass in each game this year while hitting on 61.4% of his throws for 8.8 YPA. He provides a dual-threat in the run game also, as he's rushed for 891 yards (5.2 YPC) and 12 TD while hitting triple-digits on the ground four times.


Joining him in the backfield is HB Josh Robinson (1,084 rush yards, 11 TD) who averaged 126.7 YPG over the first seven games of the year, but has since gained a meager 49.3 YPG in the past four. He has also failed to score a touchdown in his past three performances, but has remained a consistent contributor as a receiver and has 26 catches for 361 yards (13.9 avg) and a touchdown on the year. He has been the second-best receiver behind WR De’Runnya Wilson (458 rec yards, 6 TD) who leads the team with 30 receptions, but has yet to eclipse the century mark in a game.


The Bulldogs defense has proven to be phenomenal while allowing opponents to score just 18.4 PPG (11th in FBS), as LBs Benardrick McKinney (60 tackles, 3 sacks), Beniquez Brown (55 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and DL Preston Smith (41 tackles, 8 sacks, 2 INT, 1 TD) have all put forth strong efforts.


Ole Miss also has a fairly balanced offense while focusing more on its passing (270.9 YPG) and less on running the ball (164.3 YPG) as the team has scored 30.4 PPG. QB Bo Wallace (2,789 pass yards, 22 TD, 10 INT) was in early season talks for the Heisman, but recent poor play has taken him and his team out of any type of national recognition. He was horrible against the Razorbacks last week, hitting on 16-of-31 passes for 235 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT.


HB Jaylen Walton (435 rush yards, 4 TD) has not rushed for more than 60 yards since the fourth game of the season while also contributing as a receiver with 181 yards on 16 grabs (11.3 avg) and two touchdowns. HB Jordan Wilkins (316 rush yards, 1 TD) has given the team a nice change-of-pace option, as he is averaging 6.9 YPC and got the bulk of his yards in the win over Presbyterian when he went for 171 yards and a score in just 10 carries. WR Vince Sanders (647 rec yards, 6 TD) leads a solid receiving group that has tremendous depth with WRs Cody Core (480 rec yards, 5 TD) and Evan Engram (475 rec yards, 2 TD) each having more than 30 catches on the year.


The reason that the Rebels have been so successful this season is the nation's top-ranked defense, which has given up the fewest points among all FBS teams (13.5 PPG). DB Senquez Wilson (9 INT, 35 tackles, 1 TD) and DL Marquis Haynes (6.5 sacks, 24 tackles) have been a big part of the success that this side of the ball has had this season.


FLORIDA GATORS (6-4) at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (11-0)
TV/Time: ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag. Line: Florida State -7.5, Total: 53


No. 3 Florida State’s cross-state rival Florida looks to throw a cog in the Seminoles perfect season when they visit them on Saturday afternoon.


The Gators have not had a great season in 2014, as they are 5-5 ATS while losing some rough games as favorites to Missouri (42-13 defeat) and South Carolina (23-20 loss). They do have one solid victory on the year, though, when they defeated Georgia by a score of 38-20 as big 11.5-point underdogs on Nov. 1. Including that contest, Florida is 3-1 (both SU and ATS) in its past four games while committing a mere three turnovers. Last week the school faced Eastern Kentucky as 30.5-point favorites at home and dominated with a 52-3 win behind 430 yards of total offense.


Florida State has not lost a game SU since Nov. 24, 2012 and that loss came against this Florida team. This season the 'Noles have won their contests by an average of 13.3 PPG, but have had a margin of victory of just 3.5 PPG over the past two games. On the year they are a putrid 3-8 ATS, and once again failed to cover last week when they hosted Boston College as 16.5-point favorites, needing a field goal in the closing seconds to secure the 20-17 victory.


It is fitting that Florida is the last team to beat the Seminoles given their rivalry, but for the most part it has been Florida State’s series, as it is 3-1 (SU and ATS) over the past four seasons with the wins coming by an average of 22.7 PPG. Last year the Seminoles had no trouble with the Gators as they won by a score of 37-7 while holding their opponent to just 197 yards of offense. FSU dropped 456 total yards in the game while forcing two turnovers. Some trends to consider in this game include that Florida is 35-17 ATS (67%) after a two-game homestand since 1992, but Will Muschamp is 6-15 ATS (29%) versus good offenses (31+ PPG) in his tenure as the Gators head coach.


On the injury front, QB Treon Harris (knee) is probable for the Gators while WR Rashad Greene (arm) is also listed as probable for the host Seminoles.


Florida has had its issues this season on the offensive side of the ball with a mere 181.9 passing YPG (107th in FBS) and 197.1 rushing YPG (40th in nation) while scoring 31.6 PPG (48th in FBS). Freshman QB Treon Harris (727 pass yards, 10.7 YPA, 6 TD, 1 INT) has taken over for the struggling Jeff Driskel (1,092 pass yards, 5.6 YPA, 9 TD, 10 INT) and done well while throwing three touchdowns and zero interceptions over his past three games.


His real talent lies in his ability to run the ball, and he has rushed for 250 yards on 56 attempts (4.5 YPC) with three scores on the year. HBs Matt Jones (788 rush yards, 6 TD) and Kelvin Taylor (528 rush yards, 6 TD) lead a solid backfield, as Jones has gone for double-digit attempts seven times and triple-digit rushing yards three times this season. WR Demarcus Robinson (703 rec yards, 7 TD) is the only real threat in the passing attack, with four games of 100+ receiving yards, including a huge performance last week (137 rec yards, 2 TD).


The defense has been able to keep this team in games as it is allowing 20.9 PPG (23rd in FBS) while holding the past four opponents to an average of 14.0 PPG. Leading them on this side of the ball has been LB Antonio Morrison (93 tackles, 5 TFL, 1 INT) and DL Alex McCalister (6 sacks, 20 tackles).


Florida State has once again compiled one of the best passing attacks in the nation, producing 314.9 YPG through the air (12th in FBS) while adding 126.6 YPG on the ground, and has scored 35.5 PPG (26th in nation). QB Jameis Winston (3,125 pass yards, 8.5 YPA, 19 TD, 13 INT) has been much less explosive this season than his Heisman-winning campaign last year (4,057 pass yards, 10.6 YPA, 40 TD, 10 INT) but still has eclipsed 300 passing yards five times this year while throwing at least one touchdown in each game. Unfortunately he has also thrown plenty of picks and has at least one interception in all but two contests on the season. Last year he went 19-for-31 (61%) with 327 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT in the 37-7 win over the Gators.


HB Dalvin Cook (584 rush yards, 7 TD) has been explosive as a freshman and is getting 5.8 YPC while also grabbing 12 catches for 108 yards. On the other hand, HB Karlos Williams (571 rush yards, 10 TD) has been the workhorse with double-digit carries in six games this season and has been huge on the receiving end with 202 yards and a touchdown on 23 catches (8.8 avg). WR Rashad Greene (1,148 rec yards, 5 TD) has 83 receptions on the season while going for at least 100 yards in 7-of-11 games.


Behind him, WRs Nick O’Leary (465 rec yards, 3 TD) and Jesus Wilson (447 rec yards, 4 TD) have done well, and will be leaned on heavily if for some reason Greene suffers a setback with his arm injury.


On the defensive side of things, the Seminoles have given up 22.3 PPG (29th in nation) behind the strong efforts of LBs Reggie Northrup (90 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Terrance Smith (79 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT).


AUBURN TIGERS (8-3) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (10-1)
TV/Time: ESPN, 7:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag. Line: Alabama -9.5, Total: 53.5


No. 1 Alabama looks to continue its dominance with a seventh straight win when it hosts No. 14 Auburn in the annual Iron Bowl on Saturday evening.


The Tigers have fallen prey to being part of the toughest divisions in football and after starting the season 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) have gone 3-3 SU over their past six contests while covering just once. They lost by an average of 15.0 PPG against Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Georgia. They were able to get back on track last week against a lowly Samford program, as they won 31-7 as 37.5-point favorites. They totaled 386 yards in the game while forcing two turnovers and converting 7-of-14 conversions on third down.


The Crimson Tide are once again one of the top teams in the nation and have a nearly flawless SU record this season with their one blemish being a loss to Ole Miss by a score of 23-17 as 4-point favorites on the road. Since then, Alabama has won six consecutive games SU, but has continued to do poorly for bettors at 3-7-1 ATS on the season. Last week the school got an easy draw against Western Carolina and failed to cover the huge 51.5-point spread in a 48-14 win. The Crimson Tide put up 612 yards on the FCS opponent and held the Catamounts to minus-8 yards rushing, but did lose the turnover battle 2-0.


These two teams have split their past four matchups (SU and ATS), as Auburn was able to pull out a 34-28 win as a 10-point underdogs at home in 2013. The Tigers battled back from a 21-14 halftime deficit and ended the game with one of the best finishes in history, as they returned a missed field goal 109 yards with no time left on the clock to earn the win. Some trends to keep an eye on in this one include that Auburn is 14-5 ATS (74%) after one or more consecutive SU wins in the past two seasons, while Alabama is an amazing 16-3 ATS (84%) when coming off two no-covers where the team won as a favorite since 1992.


Some injuries to key offensive players for both teams need to be watched in this one, as WR D’haquille Williams (leg) is questionable for the Tigers while WR Amari Cooper (knee) and HB T.J. Yeldon (ankle) are probable, with WR DeAndrew White (undisclosed) listed as questionable for the host Crimson Tide.


Auburn has been a solid offensive team throughout the year and currently ranks ninth in the nation in rushing (266.2 YPG) while getting 210.2 YPG from their passing game and has scored 35.1 PPG (29th in FBS). QB Nick Marshall (1,859 pass yards, 15 TD, 6 INT) has gone over 200 yards passing in five of his games this season while completing 59.6% of his passes for 8.2 YPA. The real threat comes from his legs, which have helped him gain 731 yards (5.5 YPC) and score 11 TD while having double-digit rushing attempts in 9-of-11 games.


HB Cameron Artis-Payne (1,405 rush yards, 11 TD) joins Marshall in the talented backfield and has hit triple-digits in rushing yards eight times on the year. He has scored at least one touchdown in each of the past five games, including last week against Samford when he rushed for 129 yards on 24 attempts (5.4 YPC) and added a score. WR D’haquille Williams (609 rec yards, 5 TD) is the leading receiver for this team but is questionable to play. If he is unable to go, expect WRs Sammie Coates (511 rec yards, 2 TD) and Quan Bray (334 rec yards, 3 TD) to pick up the slack.


On the defensive side of things, the Tigers have allowed opponents to score 23.5 PPG on them while DBs Jonathan Ford (75 tackles, 2 INT), Jonathan Jones (29 tackles, 5 INT) and LB Cassanova McKinzy (80 tackles, 10 TFL, 1 INT) have all performed well.


Alabama has always had one of the more balanced offensive attacks in the nation and is proving that once again with 279.9 passing YPG (26th in nation) and 204.9 rushing YPG (34th in FBS) while scoring 35.0 PPG (30th in nation). QB Blake Sims (2,676 pass yards, 20 TD, 4 INT) has been efficient while hitting on 62.1% of his passes for 8.9 YPA and has been between 200 and 225 yards in each of his past three games. He has also done a great job of keeping the ball out of the opposition’s hands as he has just one pick over his past six contests.


HB T.J. Yeldon (758 rush yards, 6 TD) has been great this year while averaging 5.0 YPC, and is probable heading into this SEC matchup. If he is unable to go, the Crimson Tide can take solace in the fact that both HB Derrick Henry (682 rush yards, 7 TD) and Sims (279 rush yards, 5 TD) have run the football well all season. The team is happy to hear that star WR Amari Copper (1,349 rec yards, 11 TD) is probable to play, as he has at least eight catches in 9-of-11 games while going over 130 yards on six different occasions.


Unfortunately WR DeAndrew White (319 rec yards, 2 TD) may not go, and there is not clear-cut No. 2 receiver on the team. While the offense is impressive, the defense is even better, as the unit has allowed a mere 14.5 PPG (2nd in FBS) while holding each of the past six opponents to 23 points or less.


LB Reggie Ragland (81 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 1 INT) and DL Xzavier Dickson (33 tackles, 7 sacks) have given their opponents plenty of trouble and will need to do so once again in order to grab a win in this game.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 14

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29

Game 345-346: Michigan at Ohio State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 85.622; Ohio State 110.615
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 25; 47
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 20 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-20 1/2); Under

Game 347-348: Syracuse at Boston College (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 83.512; Boston College 89.625
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 6; 38
Vegas Line: Boston College by 11 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+11 1/2); Under

Game 349-350: Old Dominion at Florida Atlantic (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 73.933; Florida Atlantic 71.042
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 3; 63
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 4; 67
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (+4); Under

Game 351-352: Wake Forest at Duke (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 68.715; Duke 94.174
Dunkel Line: Duke by 25 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Duke by 18; 43
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-18); Under

Game 353-354: Tennessee at Vanderbilt (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 98.113; Vanderbilt 75.210
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 23; 55
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 16 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-16 1/2); Over

Game 355-356: Minnesota at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 101.282; Wisconsin 111.340
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 10; 46
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 14 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+14 1/2); Under

Game 357-358: Pittsburgh at Miami (FL) (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 87.094; Miami (FL) 95.351
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 8 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 359-360: Rutgers at Maryland (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 81.818; Maryland 92.889
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 11; 48
Vegas Line: Maryland by 8; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-8); Under

Game 361-362: Rice at Louisiana Tech (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 84.082; Louisiana Tech 86.581
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 2 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 7; 50
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+7); Over

Game 363-364: North Carolina State at North Carolina (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina State 85.332; North Carolina 98.727
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 13 1/2; 73
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 6 1/2; 69
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-6 1/2); Over

Game 365-366: Illinois at Northwestern (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 81.869; Northwestern 96.840
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 15; 57
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 8; 52
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-8); Over

Game 367-368: Purdue at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 84.163; Indiana 80.119
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 4; 55
Vegas Line: Indiana by 3 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+3 1/2); Under

Game 369-370: Idaho at Appalachian State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 54.352; Appalachian State 90.153
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 36; 62
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 17; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (-17); Under

Game 371-372: Cincinnati at Temple (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 84.703; Temple 82.181
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Temple (+7); Over

Game 373-374: Texas State at Georgia State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 73.599; Georgia State 52.849
Dunkel Line: Texas State by 20; 68
Vegas Line: Texas State by 13 1/2; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas State (-13 1/2); Over

Game 375-376: West Virginia at Iowa State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 98.071; Iowa State 77.801
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 10 1/2; 73
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 377-378: New Mexico State at Arkansas State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 54.933; Arkansas State 74.508
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 19 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 24; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+24); Over

Game 379-380: UAB at Southern Mississippi (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 80.960; Southern Mississippi 68.046
Dunkel Line: UAB by 13; 62
Vegas Line: UAB by 3 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (-3 1/2); Over

Game 381-382: Wyoming at New Mexico (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 75.895; New Mexico 77.016
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 1; 55
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 4 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+4 1/2); Under

Game 383-384: Utah State at Boise State (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 82.428; Boise State 99.568
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 17; 60
Vegas Line: Boise State by 8 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-8 1/2); Over

Game 385-386: San Jose State at San Diego State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 81.227; San Diego State 88.415
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 7; 61
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 387-388: Washington at Washington State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 97.645; Washington State 88.456
Dunkel Line: Washington by 9; 61
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 65
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Under

Game 389-390: Baylor at Texas Tech (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 108.277; Texas Tech 86.090
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 22; 83
Vegas Line: Baylor by 26; 79 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+26); Over

Game 391-392: Georgia Tech at Georgia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 91.858; Georgia 107.411
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 15 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Georgia by 12 1/2; 66
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-12 1/2); Under

Game 393-394: Kansas at Kansas State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 81.041; Kansas State 103.947
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 23; 56
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 28; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+28); Over

Game 395-396: BYU at California (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 80.756; California 103.947
Dunkel Line: California by 13; 66
Vegas Line: California by 4; 72 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-4); Under

Game 397-398: Oregon at Oregon State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 111.021; Oregon State 94.729
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 16 1/2; 73
Vegas Line: Oregon by 20; 67
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+20); Over

Game 399-400: Michigan State at Penn State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 111.009; Penn State 89.997
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 21; 40
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 13; 45
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-13); Under

Game 401-402: Auburn at Alabama (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 95.431; Alabama 111.213
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 16; 59
Vegas Line: Alabama by 8 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-8 1/2); Over

Game 403-404: Florida at Florida State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 99.210; Florida State 102.722
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 3 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Florida State by 7 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+7 1/2); Over

Game 405-406: Nevada at UNLV (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 74.592; UNLV 72.017
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 2 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Nevada by 10; 64
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+10); Under

Game 407-408: UL-Monroe at Georgia Southern (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 63.529; Georgia Southern 84.468
Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 21; 50
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 14; 54
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (-14); Under

Game 409-410: South Carolina at Clemson (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 94.493; Clemson 94.274
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Clemson by 4 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+4 1/2); N/A

Game 411-412: Hawaii at Fresno State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 72.915; Fresno State 86.582
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 13 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 10 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-10 1/2); Under

Game 413-414:Utah at Colorado (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 87.509; Colorado 84.292
Dunkel Line: Utah by 3; 54
Vegas Line: Utah by 9 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+9 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Connecticut at Memphis (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 66.825; Memphis 96.310
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 29 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Memphis by 21; 45
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-21); Over

Game 417-418: Kentucky at Louisville (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 89.349; Louisville 98.156
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 9; 58
Vegas Line: Louisville by 14; 53
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+14); Over

Game 419-420: Mississippi State at Mississippi (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 110.733; Mississippi 104.666
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 6; 56
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 2 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-2 1/2); Over

Game 421-422: Middle Tennessee State at UTEP (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 75.051; UTEP 77.035
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 2; 52
Vegas Line: UTEP by 4; 56
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+4); Under

Game 423-424: UL-Lafayette at Troy (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 85.770; Troy 59.272
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 26 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 10; 57
Dunkel Pick:: UL-Lafayette (-10); Under

Game 425-426: North Texas at TX-San Antonio (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 67.468; TX-Sa Antonio 74.416
Dunkel Line: TX-San Antonio by 7; 38
Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 4 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: TX-San Antonio (-4 1/2); Under

Game 427-428: Notre Dame at USC (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 95.317; USC 100.336
Dunkel Line: USC by 5; 56
Vegas Line: USC by 7; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+7); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Auburn at Alabama
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5, 53.5)

The Iron Bowl features one of the premier rivalries in college football, but in terms of pure drama, it will be nearly impossible to top last year's finish. No. 1 Alabama hopes to exact a measure of revenge for last season's devastating loss when it hosts No. 16 Auburn in the regular-season finale for both SEC powerhouses. The Crimson Tide's hopes of a third straight national championship ended against the Tigers last season when Chris Davis returned a missed field goal 109 yards on the final play of the game, giving Auburn a stunning 34-28 win en route to a trip to the BCS title game.

This season, the Crimson Tide have rebounded in impressive fashion to take over No. 1 in the Coaches Poll and also the top spot in the College Football Playoff rankings. A seventh straight win on Saturday would send Alabama to the SEC title game against either Missouri or Georgia while a loss would likely end their national championship dreams. Auburn, meanwhile, watched its title hopes slip away with back-to-back losses to Texas A&M and Georgia followed by a lethargic win over Samford last weekend.

TV: 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Alabama -9.5, but dropped a full point to -8.5 Tuesday night. The total of 53.5 has yet to move since open.

INJURY REPORT: Auburn - WR Ricardo Louis (Prob-Undisclosed), WR D'haquille Williams (Prob-Knee), DL Jeffrey Whitaker (Ques-Neck) Alabama - RB T.J. Yeldon (Prob-Ankle), TE Brian Vogler (Doub-Knee), DL Anthony Orr (Ques-Undisclosed), WR DeAndrew White (Prob-Undisclosed), LB Reuben Foster (Prob-Undisclosed)

WEATHER FORECAST: Clouds are expected to be partly cloudy with minimum wind come game time. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 50's.

ABOUT AUBURN (8-3, SU, 4-7 ATS, 6-5 O/U): The Tigers failed to reach 400 yards against Samford as Nick Marshall continued to put up underwhelming passing statistics. The senior quarterback passed for 171 yards and has not thrown for more than 254 yards in any game this season, while he only has one game of more than two TDs passes this year and has thrown five interceptions in his last six contests. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers' defense recorded two sacks and hurried Samford's quarterback a season-high 21 times, prompting Auburn coach Gus Malzahn to say, "The big factor was we put pressure on the quarterback. That was the key to our defensive performance."

ABOUT ALABAMA (10-1 SU, 3-8 ATS, 4-6 O/U): The Crimson Tide are second in the nation in points allowed (14.5) and fell right on that number in last week's 48-14 triumph against Western Carolina as they outgained the Catamounts 612-213. Alabama knows it can rely on its defense, as well as senior quarterback Blake Sims (20 TDs, four INTs) and junior wideout Amari Cooper, who is tied with D.J. Hall (2004-07) with a school-record 194 receptions. "I think the Iron Bowl is one of the greatest rivalries in college football," coach Nick Saban told reporters. "This game means a lot to a lot of people in this state, regardless of which side you're on, and also around the country. As a competitor, it's a great opportunity because this game has had a lot of significance over the past few years and it's certainly no different last year or this year."

TRENDS:

*Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Under is 5-0 in Crimson Tide last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
*Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Alabama.

CONSENSUS: 50.09 percent of users are backing Alabama -8.5 with 57 percent on the over.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 29


Ohio State dominating Michigan in rivalry week

The rivalry week matchup between Michigan and Ohio State is storied, it's been far from competitive in recent years.

The Buckeyes have outscored the Wolverines 216-129 in their last seven meetings with a 12.5-point average margin of victory. Ohio State is 6-1 against the spread and and straight up during that span.

The Wolverines are presently listed as 20.5-point road dogs with a total of 52.


South Carolina's D likes to play Clemson tough

South Carolina backers get wide-eyed when the Gamecocks face off against Clemson.

The Gamecocks are riding a five-game winning streak over the Tigers ahead of their rivalry week meeting Saturday. In those five games, South Carolina has 21 sacks and has created 15 turnovers.

At the time of writing, the line for the game was off the board.


Jameis Winston coming up big when it counts

Lost among all of the controversy that seems to surround Florida State signal caller Jameis Winston is his ability to answer the call when his team needs him most.

The sophomore has a 165.3 passer rating in the second half of games this season, completing 68.8 percent of his passes and throwing for 10 touchdowns in the process.

"Famous Jameis" and the rest of the Seminoles play host to Florida Saturday. The No. 2 ranked 'Noles are currently -7.5 home faves with an O/U of 53.


Defense leading the charge for Penn State

Defense has been the name of the game for Penn State so far this year.

The Nittany Lions feature one of the top defensive units in the country, ranking first in pass rushing (81.7), third in total defense (267.2) and fourth in scoring defense (16.2). Michigan State travels to University Park for a clash with Penn State Saturday.

Oddsmakers have the Spartans as 13.5-point road faves with an O/U of 45.

 

[CNOTES]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 14

The college football season is almost through the regular schedule, which means bowl season is just around the bend. But not before an action-packed Week 14, boasting some of the biggest and best rivalries in sports. We break down all the games involving Top 25 teams and give you need-to-know notes for betting each and every one:

(15) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at (9) Georgia Bulldogs (-12.5)

*Georgia Tech's 116 points off turnovers are the fourth-most in FBS this season. The Yellow Jackets are one of only five teams to score 110+ points off turnovers in 2014.

*Facing the triple-option attack of Georgia Tech, Georgia coach Mark Richt was preaching the basics to his young backend this week. "If one guy makes a mistake or one guys decides he's not going to play good fundamentals this play or one guy decides he's going to do his own thing, bam, big play. Because you'll see a lot of three, four, three, two and a half, you know, and then bam, big play, pass or run."


Kentucky Wildcats at (23) Louisville Cardinals (-12.5)

*Entering rivalry week, the extremely young Kentucky team (64 percent underclassman) needed to be taught what this game means. "We educated them today about the Governor's Cup, what it means. Some of the coaches talked about their personal memories," offensive coordinator Neal Brown said.

*Cardinals S Gerod Holliman - who leads the nation with 13 interceptions - has picked off five passes in his last three games and needs one more to equal the NCAA single-season record.


Michigan Wolverines at (7) Ohio State Buckeyes (-21)

*Running against the Wolverines has been easier said than done this season. Michigan has allowed a mere 2.94 yards per carry and has 55 tackles for a loss in Big Ten games this season.

*Though "The Game" is storied, it has been far from competitive in recent years. The Buckeyes have outscored the Wolverines 216-129 in the past seven meetings (12.5 average margin of victory). Ohio State is also 6-1 SU and ATS during that seven game span.


South Carolina Gamecocks at (24) Clemson Tigers

*The Gamecocks have a five-game winning streak over Clemson (since 2009) thanks to their defense. In those five games, South Carolina has 21 sacks and has created 15 turnovers.

*The question is who will be starting at QB for Clemson this week as Deshaun Watson re-injured himself last week. "He's not going to be at 100 percent," Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said. "Very few players are at 100 percent when you're in the 12th game of the season, but he's got to be able to execute at a high level."


Florida Gators at (2) FSU Seminoles (-7.5)

*The Gators know what playing FSU is all about and they will be practicing for a hostile environment this week. Florida will be blaring the Seminoles war chant throughout practices to get the players comfortable with communicating over the noise.

*No other player in football has been better at putting teams away than Jameis Winston. The redshirt sophomore has a 163.5 passer rating in the second half this year while completing 68.8 percent of his passes and has thrown for 10 touchdowns.


(4) Mississippi State Bulldogs at (19) Ole Miss Rebels (+2.5)

*Even though Ole Miss had a bad last game against Arkansas, coach Dan Mullen is not ready to accept that as the norm. "One of the things that can get you in danger is judge last week’s game as having any relevance toward this week," the Bulldogs coach said. "I think they turned it over six times last week. That’s not going to happen."

*Bo Wallace injured his ankle in last week's loss to Arkansas, but the Bulldogs pivot won't miss this game. "It would take a lot more than that to keep him out of this game. He's hungry and wants to play in this game in a bad way," coach Hugh Freeze said. "He's going to try to go no matter what. He's gotten better each day. Hopefully he'll be close to 100 percent."


(8) Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions (+13)

*Michigan State's offense is on pace to become the most prolific in school history. The Spartans have already set school records for most points (483), total offense (5,660 yards), offensive touchdowns (61) and made point-after attempts (63).

*The Nittany Lions feature one of the best defenses in the nation. Penn State ranks first in rushing (81.7), third in total defense (267.2) and fourth in scoring defense (16.2) the FBS.


(22) Minnesota Golden Gophers at (14) Wisconsin Badgers (-14)

*Minnesota has rushed the ball 522 times this season, compared to throwing just 203. The team is also 6-1 when they rush for 200 or more yards as a team. However, the Golden Gophers will likely be without top RB David Cobb due to a hamstring injury.

*We all know how impressive Melvin Gordon has been this year, but has been stellar against the best teams. In the last seven against Top 25 teams, Gordon is averaging 172 rushing yards and 9.95 yards per carry.


(6) Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+24.5)

*The state of Texas has been owned by Baylor for years now. Since 2011, the Bears are 39-11 SU and 33-17 ATS in games held in the Lone Star State.

*There is no doubt that Texas Tech is simply playing spoiler at this point and coach Kingsbury is fine with that. "It's our last game. For some of these seniors, it's the last game they'll ever play and for some of these juniors it's the last game they'll play for eight months. So if you're not motivated for that reason alone, you're probably in the wrong sport."


Kansas Jayhawks at (11) Kansas State Wildcats (-27.5)

*Kansas ranks first in the Big 12 and 14th nationally in red-zone defense, allowing 32 scores in 44 trips.

*The Wildcats are currently boasting one of the deadliest QB-WR combinations in college football. Since the beginning of 2013, Jake Waters and Tyler Lockett have hooked up for an average of seven times per game while averaging 112.9 yards per game.


(16) Auburn Tigers at (1) Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5)

*With the offense sputtering, it was Auburn's defense that ensured there was no Cinderella story against Samford last week. The Tigers' defense recorded two sacks and hurried Samford's quarterback a season-high 21 times, prompting Auburn coach Gus Malzahn to say, "The big factor was we put pressure on the quarterback. That was the key to our defensive performance."

*There is no doubt that the Crimson Tide will be looking towards WR Amari Cooper come the Iron Bowl. In Cooper's two games against Auburn, the receiver has 11 catches for 287 yards and three touchdowns.


(3) Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers (+19.5)

*The Ducks are one of the most dominant teams over the past five seasons and they have routinely blown out opponents. In 50 of Oregon's 57 victories since 2010, the Ducks won by 14 points or more.

*It will be Sean Mannion's last chance to get a win over the rival Ducks. The senior QB has thrown for 924 yards with six touchdowns and seven interceptions in his starts against Oregon.


Utah State Aggies at (25) Boise State Broncos (-8.5)

*The Aggies are 6-1 in Mountain West road games under coach Matt Wells and have beaten 13 of their last 14 conference opponents on the road.

*Quietly, Boise State has the fourth longest home winning streak in college football, winning their past 12 SU (6-6 ATS). The Broncos are topping teams by an average of 26.7 ppg on the blue turf.

 

[CNOTES]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves

Cincinnati Bearcats at Temple Owls – Open: +5, Move: +7

The Bearcats have fought hard to the finish, claiming an impressive win over East Carolina and pitching a 41-0 shutout over Connecticut in their last contest.

“This was as low as +4.5 and we got bet up to +6.5,” Kaminsky tells Covers. “Cincinnati has been playing really well the last five or six games. Their only losses are to Miami, Memphis, and and a 50-28 loss to Ohio State. There’s no shame in that.”


North Carolina State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels – Open: -8, Move: -6.5

North Carolina has had an up-and-down week, coming off a big win over rival Duke but getting in hot water for vandalizing the Blue Devils' locker room. Early action smells a letdown from UNC, moving this spread across the key number of a touchdown.

“It went down fairly early in the week with action on the dog, and it stayed there,” says Kaminsky. “North Carolina can put up a lot of points on the board but that defense is rather shaky.”


New Mexico State Aggies at Arkansas State Red Wolves – Open: -21.5, Move: -24

Arkansas State has dropped back-to-back games, losing to FCS Appalachian State and Texas State, but that hasn’t scared off wiseguys from betting the Red Wolves against the lowly Aggies, who have not won since a two-game winning run to open the year.

“They bet the favorite and they also bet the Over, which coincides,” Kaminsky says. “If you’re going to lay that many points with the big favorite you’ve got to like the Over.”


Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers – Open: -13, Move: -15

Wisconsin is trying to get a spot in the Big Ten Championship against a Golden Gophers squad that limps into the final game of the regular season. Minnesota could be without top RB David Cobb due to a hamstring injury.

“We opened -13 and went to -14.5 on the 26th,” says Kaminsky. “Wisconsin has pounded teams with weak defenses this year - that win against Nebraska (59-24) stands out. They can certainly put up a lot of points.”


Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders – Open: +23.5, Move: +26.5

Baylor is out to impress the College Football Playoff committee and wants to add some style points in this road game. The number moved from BU -23.5 to 25.5 early in the week but another flood of money hit the Bears Friday, pushing the spread another point.

“We see the same thing with Baylor every week,” Kaminsky says of the line movement on the Bears. “Now, that’s a team that can score in a hurry. They’re No. 1 overall in offense so this move is not surprising in the least.”


Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles – Open: -10, Move: -7.5

Early money pounded the visitor in this game, pushing the spread off the key number of 10 and now sits just above a touchdown. The money going against Florida State is a trend that’s becoming more and more common with bettors each week.

“This was just a real bad opening number. Way too high,” admits Kaminsky. “Florida State just isn’t looking like a very good team right now. They’re lucky to be undefeated. It wouldn’t matter if Florida was winless on the year. This is a big rivalry and whatever is going on or what teams need, it goes out the window because these teams want to beat each other.”

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten Report - Week 14


November 26, 2014




Wisconsin (-13.5) vs. Minnesota – 3:30 p.m. ET


Wisconsin was able to escape with a two-point win over Iowa to set up a winner-take all showdown with Minnesota for the B1G West title. The Badgers’ defense looked vulnerable against the Hawkeyes, something that hasn’t happened to Wisconsin very often this season. The Badgers allowed 412 total yards, including 311 passing yards and 2 TD to Jake Rudock on 20-of-30 completions. Luckily, they had another 200-yards rushing day from star RB Melvin Gordon – giving him five 200+-yard games on the season. His next rushing yard will give him the B1G single-season rushing record and he’s within 519 yards of the FBS single-season rushing record (2,628 by Barry Sanders in 1988). The Gophers did a good job of limiting Nebraska star RB Ameer Abdullah last week to just 98 yards on 20 carries, but there have been times that the Gophers have struggled against elite running teams.


For Minnesota to have a shot in this game, they’ll have to show up against the run and force UW QB’s Stave & McEvoy to make plays through the air. Stave, the superior passing option of the two QB’s, is completing just 57.6% with 6 TD and 4 INT this season. Offensively the Gophers have a similar approach to UW. They lean heavily on David Cobb and the running attack, which ranks 25th in rushing yards per game (228.9), but that could be an issue this week as he’s questionable with a hamstring injury. QB Leidner is a shaky at best passer. He’s completing just 51.1% of his passes this season with 10 TD and 8 INT. But like he proved in last week’s win over Nebraska, his best asset is his ability to pull the ball down and scramble. He had 111 rush yards and 2 scores against the Huskers last week and now has 408 rush yards with 8 TD on the season.


Look for both squads to try and control the time of possession by running the football with authority. Last year Wisconsin controlled the clock for +11 minutes, rushed for 197 yards on 4.4 YPC, and limited Minnesota to 185 yards of offense and no offensive touchdowns in the 20-7 victory. Wisconsin has now won 10 straight in the series by an average margin of 16.2 PPG. That includes five consecutive wins at Camp Randall by an average of 21.2 PPG. Minnesota, despite the losses, has covered five of the last seven in the series. Wisconsin is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 B1G home games as a double-digit favorite. Minnesota has covered six of its last eight overall and is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 B1G games.


Ohio State (-20) vs. Michigan – 12:00 p.m. ET


The Buckeyes jumped out to an early 14-0 lead over the Hoosiers, but three turnovers allowed the Hoosiers to gain some steam and actually take a 20-14 lead in the 3rd quarter. J.T. Barrett bounced back from two interceptions to throw for 302 yards on 25-of-35 passing with 4 TD’s to lead the Buckeyes to a 42-27 victory – officially sealing the deal on OSU’s B1G East division title. RB Elliott had 107 rushing yards and 1 TD on 13 carries and WR Jalin Marshall tallied four total touchdowns on the day (3 receiving, 1 punt return). The Buckeyes defense struggled against the run for the second consecutive game. They allowed 218 rush yards and 3 TD to Minnesota two weeks ago and 281 yards and 3 TD to Indiana last week. That has to be fixed, especially with either Wisconsin or Minnesota on deck in the B1G Championship game next week. First they have their annual rivalry game with Michigan. With a win, they’ll stay in the thick of the CFB Playoff race while eliminating the Wolverines from a bowl berth.


Michigan’s disappointing season continued with an underachieving performance against Maryland last week. In the final home game of the season, Michigan couldn’t close out the game as the Wolves lost a seven-point lead in the 4th quarter. They had a good day on the ground, rushing for 292 yards on 45 carries (6.5 YPC), but QB Gardner was ineffective (13-of-24 passing for 106 yards with 1 INT) and couldn’t make the clutch throws late. Defensively they were a little to allowing to a bad Maryland offense. Michigan allowed the Terps to gain 147 rush yards – 62 more rush yards than the Terps had gained in the previous three games combined. With that loss, the Wolverines now need a win to become bowl-eligible, but the way this season has went, it might be better just to stop the bleeding now. Ohio State is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Michigan, with a +11 PPG scoring margin in those 10 meetings. Last year was one of the most memorable matchup in recent memory as Michigan came from behind and had a chance to tie or win with 32 seconds remaining. The two-point conversion attempt failed and OSU escaped Ann Arbor with a 42-41 win. OSU is 15-5 ATS in the last 20 home games as a favorite of 20-points or more. Michigan hasn’t been an underdog of 20 points or more since a trip to Columbus in 2008 and the Wolves are 0-3 ATS in the last three games as an underdog of 10 points or more.


Michigan State (-13) at Penn State – 3:30 p.m. ET


Michigan State’s second place finish in the B1G East was solidified last week as they can’t surpass OSU for the division title. They completely dominated Rutgers in their final home game of the season. Sparty had a +286 yard advantage and +11 first downs in the 42-point victory. QB Cook tossed for 254 yards and 2 scores while the rushing attack notched 242 yards on 5.5 YPC. Defensively they held Rutgers to just 14-of-31 passing for 139 yards with 3 picks and they held the Scarlet Knights under 100 yards rushing (95 yards on 3.3 YPC). MSU may be among the best teams in the nation, but it lost its two key games of the season (Oregon & Ohio State) and won’t get a shot at the playoff. The Spartans can still close out an impressive 10-win regular season with a win over Penn State here. MSU’s RB Jeremy Langford has recorded 15-straight 100 yard rushing games against B1G opponents, but he’ll be tested to reach that plateau here against the No. 1 rush-defense in the nation. PSU is allowing just 81.7 rush YPG this season and only one rusher had exceeded 100 rush yards (OSU’s Elliott).


Last week the Nittany Lions held Illinois to just 68 rush yards on 2.5 YPC. The problem for PSU is that its offense was yet again underwhelming as it fell to the Illini on a last second field goal. QB Hackenberg continues to struggle as he completed just 8-of-16 passes for 93 yards and 1 TD as PSU tallied just 15 first downs and 265 total yards. It’ll be another day of tough sledding for this offense against an MSU defense that ranks 8th in total yards allowed and 22nd in points per game allowed. The Nittany Lions are already bowl eligible, so there’s not a lot to play for here; but one can expect a motivated effort from James Franklin’s crew in the final home game of the season. Penn State is 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS in the last 11 meetings with Michigan State. The Nittany Lions are also 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six home games against the Spartans, but MSU won at State College in the latest meeting in 2010. Michigan State has been a B1G road favorite of 10 points or more just five times since 1999. Three of those occasions happened this season and they are 2-1 ATS in those games. Penn State is 3-5-1 ATS in the last nine games as a home underdog, one of the covers was earlier this season against OSU as a 14-point ‘dog (24-31 OT loss).


Iowa (-1.5) vs. Nebraska – Friday, 12:00 p.m. ET


Iowa has been a difficult team to analyze this season. They’ve alternated wins and losses over the last six weeks with games that included impressive wins (48-7 over Northwestern) and troubling losses (14-51 @Minnesota). Still, give the Hawkeyes credit for nearly pulling off the upset over Wisconsin last week. This sporadic Iowa offense had more success against Wisconsin’s dominating defense than any team this season as QB Rudock threw for 311 yards and 2 scores and the rushing attack notched over 100 yards against the nation’s 5th-ranked rush defense. Defensively they played quite well against Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon, despite the final statistics. Ninety five of Gordon’s 200 yards came on one-rush and if you take away that one carry, Gordon managed a meager 105 yards on 30 carries. Iowa’s rush defense will be put to the test again against this Nebraska offense that ranks 15th in rush yards per game (256.2).


Nebraska RB Abdullah is a bit banged up and has managed just 168 rush yards on 44 carries over the past two games, but he’s getting healthier and is still a threat in this matchup. Expect Iowa to try to replicate what Wisconsin and Minnesota have done the past two games against Nebraska: stack the box against Abdullah and force QB Armstrong to beat them – which hasn’t worked in the Huskers’ favor. They’ve dropped back-to-back games as the Nebraska QB has completed just 18-of-37 (48.6%) for 285 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT. It also hasn’t been pretty on the defensive side of the ball as the Huskers have allowed 862 rush yards on 8.2 YPC with 11 rush TD in in the last two games. It’s difficult to gauge Nebraska’s motivation level heading into this game. The Huskers have dropped back-to-back games to eliminate them from a B1G West title and are now playing their final road game of the season with little at stake. Iowa has covered the last two in the series vs. Nebraska, including last year’s 21-point win in Lincoln as a three-point underdog. Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog but they’ve failed to cover their last four conference games. Iowa is just 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 as a home favorite but is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 conference games.


Maryland (-8) vs. Rutgers – 3:30 p.m. ET


The newcomers to the B1G meet for the first time as conference rivals here. Maryland comes into this one off of a come-from-behind win in Ann Arbor over the Wolverines. It wasn’t a pretty performance from the Terps as they were outgained and had fewer first downs, but they were able to make plays when it counted in outscoring the Wolves 14-0 in the 4th quarter to notch a 7-point victory. The offense isn’t especially hot coming into this matchup. QB Brown is completing 51.7% of his passes with 4 TD and 6 INT over the last six games while the rushing attack has sputtered to just 232 yards on 100 carries (2.3 YPC) over the last four games. The offense should be able to find some success against this Rutgers defense that ranks 95th nationally in yards per game allowed, including 72nd against the pass and 102nd against the rush.


Rutgers followed up its 22-point victory over Indiana two weeks ago in disappointing fashion last week in a 42-point loss to Michigan State. Rutgers has been completely overmatched by top-tier B1G teams this season: it has now lost to MSU by 42 points, Wisconsin by 37 points, Nebraska by 18 points, and Ohio State by 39 points. Against MSU, the Scarlet Knights were hapless on offense as QB’s Nova and Laviano combined to complete just 14-of-31 passes for 139 yards with 0 TD and 3 INT while the rushing attack was held to just 95 yards on 29 carries (3.3 YPC). Both squads are bowl eligible, so nothing to play for in that regards. But each would like to close out their inaugural B1G season with a win here. These two last met in 2009 with Rutgers winning by 21-points as Maryland. Maryland is just 6-13 ATS in the last 19 games as a home favorite of 7-points or more. Rutgers is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games as a road ‘dog of 7-points or more, though they have lost the last three occasions this year by an average of 33 points per game.


Northwestern (-8.5) vs. Illinois – 12:00 p.m. ET


Though this isn’t a very appealing matchup, there’s a lot at stake here for both teams. Both teams sit at 5-6 and a win will send the victor to a bowl game. It will be a successful season for the victor and mark another losing campaign for the loser. Northwestern has won back-to-back games in impressive fashion. First they knocked off Notre Dame by three points in South Bend then got a blowout win at Purdue last week. The win over the Boilers came at a price as starting QB Trevor Siemian tore his ACL and is done for the season. Junior QB Zack Oliver will get the start on Saturday. Oliver has thrown 23 passes in three seasons with the Wildcats for a meager 158 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.


Luckily he’s going against Illinois and not one of the better B1G defenses here. The Illini are 115th in yards per game allowed and 105th in points allowed. Illinois has won just two of its previous seven games, but one of them was a quality win over Penn State last week. QB O'Toole provided a nice spark off the bench, tossing for 157 yards and 1 score in a game where yards were at a premium. Defensively it wasn’t a great opponent, but the Illini had arguably their top performance to date, limiting the Nittany Lions to just 265 total yards and 15 first downs. Northwestern is 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Wildcats have won two straight overall, including a win at home in 2012 by 36 points. Northwestern is 0-6 ATS in the last six games as a home favorite of seven points or more. Illinois is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games.


Indiana (-3) vs. Purdue – 12:00 p.m. ET


Hard to find an edge in this matchup. Indiana has dropped six straight games by 20.3 PPG. Purdue has dropped five straight games by an average of 15.6 PPG. Indiana is 2-3 SU at home while Purdue is 1-4 SU on the road. IU’s QB Diamont has undoubtedly improved over the past few weeks, but he's still a third-string quarterback who was put in an impossible position to succeed this year. Credit the Hoosiers for hanging tough against Ohio State last week, where they actually held a 21-20 4th quarter lead before OSU took control of the game. RB Coleman rushed for 228 yards and 3 TD and is now just 94 yards away from eclipsing 2,000 yards this season.


Defensively the Hoosiers remain bad. They’ve allowed 34+ points in five of the last six games and rank 100th in yards per game allowed this season. Purdue showed signs of progress earlier in the Big Ten season -- when it beat Illinois and fell to Minnesota 39-38, but it has been difficult to find many positives lately. QB Appleby seems to have regressed lately as he has just 7 TD and 6 INT over the last four games – completing less than 50% of his passes over that span. The defense has also struggled mightily of late, as this unit has surrendered 34+ PPG over its last five games. Purdue has won seven of the last 10 in the series outright. The Hoosiers have dropped two of the last three home meetings with Purdue, but Indiana won last year’s meeting at home by 20-points, 56-36. Purdue is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven road games. Indiana is just 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Report - Week 14


November 29, 2014




Two Pac-12 games are already in the books, including Friday's tremendously exciting 42-35 by Arizona over Arizona State, and Stanford's stunning 31-10 cakewalk over UCLA in the Rose Bowl.


While Arizona has locked up the South Division, and a date with Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, there is still plenty on the line for a lot of teams Saturday.


Washington is already bowl eligible, while Washington State has long since been eliminated. However, records can usually be thrown out when the Apple Cup is played, one of the best rivalries in the league. The same holds true for the Civil War, as Oregon meets a wounded, but still very dangerous Oregon State team in Corvallis. And while the records might be 7-4 for both Notre Dame and Southern California, that's always a great game regardless of the win-loss totals for either team.


2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Arizona 10-2 7-2 5-7 4-8


Arizona State 9-3 6-3 6-6 6-6


California 5-6 3-6 7-4 6-5


Colorado 2-9 0-8 5-6 6-5


Oregon 10-1 7-1 7-4 6-4-1


Oregon State 5-6 2-6 3-8 5-5-1


Southern California 7-4 6-3 6-5 4-7


Stanford 7-5 5-4 6-6 2-9


UCLA 9-3 6-3 4-8 4-7-1


Utah 7-4 4-4 8-3 3-7-1


Washington 7-5 3-5 6-6 4-8


Washington State 3-8 2-6 4-7 6-5






Utah at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 1:00 p.m. ET)


The Utes hit the road, a place which has been very kind all season. While Utah is 8-3 ATS overall this season, they're an even more impressive 5-0 on the road. They have covered 18 of their past 26 against a team with a losing overall record. For Colorado, they're just 2-4 ATS over the past six games, and they have dropped seven in a row. It appears the close calls during the middle portion of the Pac-12 schedule have taken a toll, as the Buffs have been a little less competitive. They have dropped their past three games by an average of 22.3 points per outing. The under is 7-1-1 in Utah's past nine outings, and is 12-3-1 in their past 16 conference tilts. While the over has been the dominant trend for Colorado lately, the under has hit in each of the past two.


Notre Dame at Southern California (FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET)


Neither of these rivals have been particularly attractive against the number lately. Notre Dame limps in 0-4 ATS in their past four games, although they are 6-2 ATS in their past eight against a team with a winning overall record. And they're 5-1 ATS in their past six against Pac-12 foes, although they were torched 55-31 at Arizona State Nov. 8 in their last confrontation with a Pac-12 opponent. USC has failed to cover in three of the past four, although they're a respectable 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in the Coliseum. The under has hit in four straight for the Men of Troy, while the over is 4-0 in the past four for the Irish. The under has hit in four straight in this series, and is 4-1 in the past five at USC.


Brigham Young at California (Pac-12 Network, 4:30 p.m.)


BYU is already eligible to go bowling, and if California wants to join the Cougars in the postseason fun they will need to pull off a victory at Memorial Stadium. The Bears are favored by a field goal and a hook, and they're 0-2 ATS in their past two as a favorite. In fact, the last time they were a 3.5-point favorite back on Oct. 11 against Washington, Cal was walloped 31-7. That started a freefall for Cal, losing five of the past five games. After taking some time to adjust to life with Taysom Hill, the Cougars have picked it up in the month of November, going 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS.


Oregon at Oregon State (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)


These are two teams going in opposite directions, but both sides have plenty at stake Saturday in the latest installment of the Civil War. Oregon is trying to remain on track for one of the four college playoff spots, while Oregon State is still trying to become bowl eligible. The Beavers could do so in style, ruining their rivals' national championship aspirations in the process. Lately there hasn't been much sign that will happen, however. OSU is 4-10 ATS in their past 14 at Reser Stadium, 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record, and 1-5 ATS in their past six Pac-12 tilts. Oregon, on the other hand, has covered six straight, and they're 16-5 ATS in their past 21 road games. In this series, Oregon has covered four straight in Corvallis, and the road team is 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight in the series. The over is 11-1 in the past 12 meetings, and 5-1 in the past six at Reser.


Washington at Washington State (FS1, 10:30 p.m.)


It's Apple Cup time, and the Huskies hope to ease past their rivals and into an eighth victory on the season. U-Dub have covered five of the past seven meetings on the Palouse, but the underdog is 14-5 ATS in the past 19 meetings. While the Cougs are 0-5 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 at home, they are a very dangerous team. Washington State has covered each of the past two, and they have a slight 4-3 ATS over the past seven encounters. QB Luke Falk and the Cougars offense are averaging 35.0 points per game since he took over for the injured QB Connor Halliday. Washington State has scored at least 31 points in five of their six home games, including against Arizona and Oregon.