NCAAF opening line report: Alabama opens as 6-point road faves vs. LSU
Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers (+6)
Alabama, where Nick Saban coaches, hopes to keep its college football playoff hopes right on track. Louisiana State, where Saban once coached, would love to send the Crimson Tide right off the rails.
That matchup is the biggest of Week 11, as teams gear up for the final mad dash to the end of college football’s regular season.
The Crimson Tide sit at 7-1 SU and are coming off a bye after dropping Tennessee 34-20, but they fell short as a massive 20-point road favorite. In fact, ‘Bama is just 2-6 ATS, tied with a host of other teams for the third-worst spread-covering record in the nation.
Meanwhile, LSU is 7-2 SU and ATS and also coming off a bye after knocking off previously unbeaten Mississippi 10-7 as a 4-point home underdog. The Tigers have won and cashed three in a row since getting trounced 41-7 at Auburn as a 7-point pup.
“The bye came at a really good time for the Tigers, emotionally and physically. They’ve got renewed confidence after beating Ole Miss, which was a sloppy win,” said John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu. “We’ll keep an eye on (Alabama running back) T.J. Yeldon’s status (foot injury) as the week progresses and we expect he’ll be fine, but there’s rarely a shortage of talent in ‘Bama’s backfield. No question the Tide should be favorites here.”
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Arizona State Sun Devils (-1.5)
Notre Dame (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) still harbors playoff hopes, but it can’t afford to lose another game, and even then will need a lot of help in the way of losses from higher-ranked teams. On Saturday, the Fighting Irish blew a 28-7 lead at Navy, ultimately having to rally for a 49-39 victory as a 14-point road chalk.
Likewise, ASU (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) has only one blemish on its record as it tries to claim the Pac-10 title. The Sun Devils fended off Utah 19-16 in overtime Saturday, falling short as 6.5-point home faves.
“The Irish have a chance to impress the playoff committee here, but I’m not confident they can get it done,” Lester said. “Navy's triple-option wears opponents out, and it did last week, so you have to wonder if there’ll be a defensive hangover. ASU’s protection along the line is certainly a concern. The Sun Devils will need to keep this contest low-scoring.”
Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)
Michigan State (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is definitely in the thick of the four-team playoff chase, coming off a 35-11 spanking of instate rival Michigan as a 17-point home chalk, then getting a bye this past weekend.
Ohio State (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) is also coming off a bye and looking to play spoiler while shoring up its Big 10 title hopes. The Buckeyes barely held off Penn State in their last outing, winning 31-24 in overtime while failing to cover as a 14-point road fave.
“The postseason implications are huge, and we’ll have a ton of action on this marquee matchup,” Lester said. “There was no look-ahead for the Buckeyes last week, and they appear to be focused and prepared for this one. However, with the extra time and the home-field advantage, I like the Spartans to win again.”
Oregon Ducks at Utah Utes (+9.5)
Marcus Mariota and Oregon (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) aim to stay on track in the Pac-12 and in the national playoff picture. The Ducks come in off a 45-16 throttling of Stanford as a 7-point home favorite, their fourth straight win and cover since a stunning home upset loss to Arizona.
Utah has been an upstart this season and one of the best teams in the nation at the betting window, going 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS. On Saturday night, the Utes couldn’t get the win, but did get the cover in a 19-16 overtime loss at Arizona State as 6.5-point pups.
“Oregon passed the smell test against a very good Stanford defense, and they’ll have to do the same here because the Utes can certainly get after the quarterback,” Lester said. “Utah will aim to shorten this game. There’s no pressure on the home team here, they’ll be loose, and I expect they’ll have some wise-guy support. They’ve been fantastic against the number this year.”
Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers (+6)
Alabama, where Nick Saban coaches, hopes to keep its college football playoff hopes right on track. Louisiana State, where Saban once coached, would love to send the Crimson Tide right off the rails.
That matchup is the biggest of Week 11, as teams gear up for the final mad dash to the end of college football’s regular season.
The Crimson Tide sit at 7-1 SU and are coming off a bye after dropping Tennessee 34-20, but they fell short as a massive 20-point road favorite. In fact, ‘Bama is just 2-6 ATS, tied with a host of other teams for the third-worst spread-covering record in the nation.
Meanwhile, LSU is 7-2 SU and ATS and also coming off a bye after knocking off previously unbeaten Mississippi 10-7 as a 4-point home underdog. The Tigers have won and cashed three in a row since getting trounced 41-7 at Auburn as a 7-point pup.
“The bye came at a really good time for the Tigers, emotionally and physically. They’ve got renewed confidence after beating Ole Miss, which was a sloppy win,” said John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu. “We’ll keep an eye on (Alabama running back) T.J. Yeldon’s status (foot injury) as the week progresses and we expect he’ll be fine, but there’s rarely a shortage of talent in ‘Bama’s backfield. No question the Tide should be favorites here.”
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Arizona State Sun Devils (-1.5)
Notre Dame (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) still harbors playoff hopes, but it can’t afford to lose another game, and even then will need a lot of help in the way of losses from higher-ranked teams. On Saturday, the Fighting Irish blew a 28-7 lead at Navy, ultimately having to rally for a 49-39 victory as a 14-point road chalk.
Likewise, ASU (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) has only one blemish on its record as it tries to claim the Pac-10 title. The Sun Devils fended off Utah 19-16 in overtime Saturday, falling short as 6.5-point home faves.
“The Irish have a chance to impress the playoff committee here, but I’m not confident they can get it done,” Lester said. “Navy's triple-option wears opponents out, and it did last week, so you have to wonder if there’ll be a defensive hangover. ASU’s protection along the line is certainly a concern. The Sun Devils will need to keep this contest low-scoring.”
Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)
Michigan State (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is definitely in the thick of the four-team playoff chase, coming off a 35-11 spanking of instate rival Michigan as a 17-point home chalk, then getting a bye this past weekend.
Ohio State (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) is also coming off a bye and looking to play spoiler while shoring up its Big 10 title hopes. The Buckeyes barely held off Penn State in their last outing, winning 31-24 in overtime while failing to cover as a 14-point road fave.
“The postseason implications are huge, and we’ll have a ton of action on this marquee matchup,” Lester said. “There was no look-ahead for the Buckeyes last week, and they appear to be focused and prepared for this one. However, with the extra time and the home-field advantage, I like the Spartans to win again.”
Oregon Ducks at Utah Utes (+9.5)
Marcus Mariota and Oregon (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) aim to stay on track in the Pac-12 and in the national playoff picture. The Ducks come in off a 45-16 throttling of Stanford as a 7-point home favorite, their fourth straight win and cover since a stunning home upset loss to Arizona.
Utah has been an upstart this season and one of the best teams in the nation at the betting window, going 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS. On Saturday night, the Utes couldn’t get the win, but did get the cover in a 19-16 overtime loss at Arizona State as 6.5-point pups.
“Oregon passed the smell test against a very good Stanford defense, and they’ll have to do the same here because the Utes can certainly get after the quarterback,” Lester said. “Utah will aim to shorten this game. There’s no pressure on the home team here, they’ll be loose, and I expect they’ll have some wise-guy support. They’ve been fantastic against the number this year.”