NFL BEST BETS SEPTEMBER !
09/09/2024...............................0 - 2 - 0..............................00.00%..............................- 11.00
09/08/2024...............................5 - 11 - 0...........................31.25%...............................- 41.00
09/06/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00
09/05/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00
TOTALS........................................5 - 17 - 0............................22.72%.............................- 74.00
09/09/2024...............................0 - 2 - 0..............................00.00%..............................- 11.00
09/08/2024...............................5 - 11 - 0...........................31.25%...............................- 41.00
09/06/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00
09/05/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00
TOTALS........................................5 - 17 - 0............................22.72%.............................- 74.00
Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Most passing yards in NFL in Week 1:
338—Tua Tagovailoa, Mia
317— Matthew Stafford, Rams
291— Patrick Mahomes, KC
289— Baker Mayfield, TB
278— Jalen Hurts, Phil
273— Lamar Jackson, Balt
Quote of the Day
“When one door closes, another one opens.”
Alexander Graham Bell
Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Aaron Rodgers play his college football?
Monday’s quiz
Before Sunday, Robert Griffin III was the last rookie QB to start a game for the Washington Redskins/Commanders; that happened in 2012.
Sunday’s quiz
When Bryce Harper broke into the major leagues, he was on the Washington Nationals.
**************************************
49ers scored on eight of their nine drives, led 16-7 at halftime.
Jake Moody kicked six FG’s: 46-51-31-53-23-42 yards.
49ers ran ball for 180 yards, outgained Jets 401-266.
McCaffrey was a late scratch; Jordan Mason ran 147 yards and a TD.
QB Purdy is 22-5 as an NFL starter.
Jets went 3/out on five of first six drives.
San Francisco ran 70 plays from scrimmage, Jets ran only 48 plays.
WR Lazard caught six passes for 89 yards, two TD’s.
Last 4+ years, Jets are 10-19 ATS as road underdogs.
Jets are 5-14-1 ATS in last 20 games vs NFC opponents.
— Philadelphia Eagles are only NFL team in the last 50 years to have:
a) the same head coach three years in a row, but…….
b) have 3 different offensive coordinators
c) have 3 different defensive coordinators
— Cleveland Browns’ QB Deshaun Watson is in year 3 of a 5-year, $230M contract that is fully guaranteed, which is highly unusual in the NFL. Watson has played in only 13 of a possible 35 games for the Browns; they’re 8-5 in those games, but in Sunday’s 33-17 home loss to Dallas, Watson was 0-10 on passes that went 15+ years downfield.
From Zach Pareles of CBS Sports: “Since 2006, there have been 1,752 times a quarterback threw at least 10 passes 15+ yards downfield in a game. Deshaun Watson (today) is THE ONLY ONE to not complete a single one.”
No bueno.
Word came out Monday that Watson is getting sued (again) for sexual assault in Houston, something that allegedly happened in 2020. Oy.
— Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is thriving in Tampa; Mayfield was 30-31 as Cleveland’s QB before they traded for Watson- he makes $33.3M a year, and he isn’t the public relations disaster that Watson is. He might also be a better quarterback, which is kind of ironic.
Odd sidebar to this story: One of the Browns’ executives who helped facilitate the Browns trading for Watson is Paul DePodesta, who is the Jonah Hill character in Moneyball.
DePodesta played football/baseball at Harvard, was mostly a baseball executive before the Browns hired him in 2016. Go figure.
— Sunday morning, while in Cleveland ironically, Cowboys signed QB Dak Prescott to a 4-year, $240M contract. Prescott is 76-46 as the Dallas QB, but only 2-5 in playoff games; Dallas hasn’t been in a conference championship game since the 1995 season.
Dallas owner Jerry Jones will be 82 next month; he is spending lot of $$$ to get his Cowboys back to the Super Bowl in the next few years.
— NFL injuries:
Green Bay QB Jordan Love sprained his knee, not his ankle, is questionable for this week. Malik Willis will start at QB if Love can’t. Willis was 1-2 starting games for Tennessee in 2022.
Rams WR Puka Nacua (knee) is on IR, will miss the next four games.
Rams’ OL has lot of injuries right now, more injured guys than healthy guys.
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (calf) was a surprise inactive for Monday night’s game.
Bills’ QB Josh Allen (left hand) was cleared to play in Thursday’s game vs Miami.
Chicago rookie WR Rome Odunze sprained his knee, is questionable for this week.
— When HBO’s Hard Knocks focused on the NFL’s Giants during the draft/free agency period,
Giants’ owner John Mara made it fairly clear in one scene that he wouldn’t be happy if Saquon Barkley wound up on the divisional rival Eagles.
Well, Barkley signed with the Eagles and in his first game last week, Barkley ran for 109 yards and scored three TD’s, one of them receiving. Had to be some tense moments between Mara and GM Joe Schoen this weekend. Giants are 16-20-1 in 2+ seasons with Schoen as GM.
— Famous birthdays, September 10th:
Charlie Waters, 76
Gary Danielson, 73
Amy Irving, 73
Sedale Threatt, 63
Randy Johnson, 61
Ben Wallace, 50
Joey Votto, 41
Neil Walker, 39
Paul Goldschmidt, 37
— RIP to James Earl Jones, a man with one of the best voices ever, who passed away at age 93.
In his legendary career, he earned two Tony Awards, two Emmy Awards, an honorary Academy Award and a Grammy; he was the voice of Darth Vadar in Star Wars, he was great in Field of Dreams and I remember him from a random appearance on David Letterman’s talkshow, when he read a list of “things that sound cool when James Earl Jones says them”
RIP, sir.
— Rob Lowe is a game show host now. Why?
Kind of weird to me that the guy who played Sam Seaborn on The West Wing now seems to be the face of FOX’s primetime TV, but it is what it is.
— NBA’s Denver Nuggets locked up G Jamal Murray with a 4-year, $208M deal; Murray helped Denver win their first NBA title in 2023. He’s scored 20+ points/game in his last three seasons.
— How NFL divisions did ATS outside their division this week:
NFC East- 2-2 ATS
NFC North- 2-0 ATS as home favorite, 1-1 as an underdog
NFC South- 1-1 ATS as home favorite
NFC West- 2-2 ATS
AFC East- 0-2 ATS as home favorite, 1-1 as an underdog
AFC North- 0-2 ATS as home favorite, 1-1 as an underdog
AFC South- 1-1 ATS as road underdog
AFC West- 2-0 ATS
Divisional home favorites were 2-0 ATS, home underdogs were 1-0.
Most passing yards in NFL in Week 1:
338—Tua Tagovailoa, Mia
317— Matthew Stafford, Rams
291— Patrick Mahomes, KC
289— Baker Mayfield, TB
278— Jalen Hurts, Phil
273— Lamar Jackson, Balt
Quote of the Day
“When one door closes, another one opens.”
Alexander Graham Bell
Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Aaron Rodgers play his college football?
Monday’s quiz
Before Sunday, Robert Griffin III was the last rookie QB to start a game for the Washington Redskins/Commanders; that happened in 2012.
Sunday’s quiz
When Bryce Harper broke into the major leagues, he was on the Washington Nationals.
**************************************
Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….
— 49ers 32, Jets 1949ers scored on eight of their nine drives, led 16-7 at halftime.
Jake Moody kicked six FG’s: 46-51-31-53-23-42 yards.
49ers ran ball for 180 yards, outgained Jets 401-266.
McCaffrey was a late scratch; Jordan Mason ran 147 yards and a TD.
QB Purdy is 22-5 as an NFL starter.
Jets went 3/out on five of first six drives.
San Francisco ran 70 plays from scrimmage, Jets ran only 48 plays.
WR Lazard caught six passes for 89 yards, two TD’s.
Last 4+ years, Jets are 10-19 ATS as road underdogs.
Jets are 5-14-1 ATS in last 20 games vs NFC opponents.
— Philadelphia Eagles are only NFL team in the last 50 years to have:
a) the same head coach three years in a row, but…….
b) have 3 different offensive coordinators
c) have 3 different defensive coordinators
— Cleveland Browns’ QB Deshaun Watson is in year 3 of a 5-year, $230M contract that is fully guaranteed, which is highly unusual in the NFL. Watson has played in only 13 of a possible 35 games for the Browns; they’re 8-5 in those games, but in Sunday’s 33-17 home loss to Dallas, Watson was 0-10 on passes that went 15+ years downfield.
From Zach Pareles of CBS Sports: “Since 2006, there have been 1,752 times a quarterback threw at least 10 passes 15+ yards downfield in a game. Deshaun Watson (today) is THE ONLY ONE to not complete a single one.”
No bueno.
Word came out Monday that Watson is getting sued (again) for sexual assault in Houston, something that allegedly happened in 2020. Oy.
— Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is thriving in Tampa; Mayfield was 30-31 as Cleveland’s QB before they traded for Watson- he makes $33.3M a year, and he isn’t the public relations disaster that Watson is. He might also be a better quarterback, which is kind of ironic.
Odd sidebar to this story: One of the Browns’ executives who helped facilitate the Browns trading for Watson is Paul DePodesta, who is the Jonah Hill character in Moneyball.
DePodesta played football/baseball at Harvard, was mostly a baseball executive before the Browns hired him in 2016. Go figure.
— Sunday morning, while in Cleveland ironically, Cowboys signed QB Dak Prescott to a 4-year, $240M contract. Prescott is 76-46 as the Dallas QB, but only 2-5 in playoff games; Dallas hasn’t been in a conference championship game since the 1995 season.
Dallas owner Jerry Jones will be 82 next month; he is spending lot of $$$ to get his Cowboys back to the Super Bowl in the next few years.
— NFL injuries:
Green Bay QB Jordan Love sprained his knee, not his ankle, is questionable for this week. Malik Willis will start at QB if Love can’t. Willis was 1-2 starting games for Tennessee in 2022.
Rams WR Puka Nacua (knee) is on IR, will miss the next four games.
Rams’ OL has lot of injuries right now, more injured guys than healthy guys.
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (calf) was a surprise inactive for Monday night’s game.
Bills’ QB Josh Allen (left hand) was cleared to play in Thursday’s game vs Miami.
Chicago rookie WR Rome Odunze sprained his knee, is questionable for this week.
— When HBO’s Hard Knocks focused on the NFL’s Giants during the draft/free agency period,
Giants’ owner John Mara made it fairly clear in one scene that he wouldn’t be happy if Saquon Barkley wound up on the divisional rival Eagles.
Well, Barkley signed with the Eagles and in his first game last week, Barkley ran for 109 yards and scored three TD’s, one of them receiving. Had to be some tense moments between Mara and GM Joe Schoen this weekend. Giants are 16-20-1 in 2+ seasons with Schoen as GM.
— Famous birthdays, September 10th:
Charlie Waters, 76
Gary Danielson, 73
Amy Irving, 73
Sedale Threatt, 63
Randy Johnson, 61
Ben Wallace, 50
Joey Votto, 41
Neil Walker, 39
Paul Goldschmidt, 37
— RIP to James Earl Jones, a man with one of the best voices ever, who passed away at age 93.
In his legendary career, he earned two Tony Awards, two Emmy Awards, an honorary Academy Award and a Grammy; he was the voice of Darth Vadar in Star Wars, he was great in Field of Dreams and I remember him from a random appearance on David Letterman’s talkshow, when he read a list of “things that sound cool when James Earl Jones says them”
RIP, sir.
— Rob Lowe is a game show host now. Why?
Kind of weird to me that the guy who played Sam Seaborn on The West Wing now seems to be the face of FOX’s primetime TV, but it is what it is.
— NBA’s Denver Nuggets locked up G Jamal Murray with a 4-year, $208M deal; Murray helped Denver win their first NBA title in 2023. He’s scored 20+ points/game in his last three seasons.
— How NFL divisions did ATS outside their division this week:
NFC East- 2-2 ATS
NFC North- 2-0 ATS as home favorite, 1-1 as an underdog
NFC South- 1-1 ATS as home favorite
NFC West- 2-2 ATS
AFC East- 0-2 ATS as home favorite, 1-1 as an underdog
AFC North- 0-2 ATS as home favorite, 1-1 as an underdog
AFC South- 1-1 ATS as road underdog
AFC West- 2-0 ATS
Divisional home favorites were 2-0 ATS, home underdogs were 1-0.
NFL
Week 2
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Trend Report
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Buffalo vs Miami
Buffalo is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Miami
Buffalo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Miami is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home
New Orleans vs Dallas
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Dallas is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Indianapolis vs Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco vs Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Francisco
NY Jets vs Tennessee
NY Jets is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Tennessee
NY Jets is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Tennessee's last 22 games at home
Las Vegas vs Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
LA Chargers vs Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of LA Chargers's last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games at home
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Tampa Bay vs Detroit
Tampa Bay is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Cleveland vs Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Seattle vs New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home
NY Giants vs Washington
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
NY Giants is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games
LA Rams vs Arizona
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Pittsburgh vs Denver
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati vs Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Chicago vs Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 6-2 ATS inhome its last 8 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
Atlanta vs Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
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Week 2
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Trend Report
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Buffalo vs Miami
Buffalo is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Miami
Buffalo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Miami is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home
New Orleans vs Dallas
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Dallas is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Indianapolis vs Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco vs Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Francisco
NY Jets vs Tennessee
NY Jets is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Tennessee
NY Jets is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Tennessee's last 22 games at home
Las Vegas vs Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
LA Chargers vs Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of LA Chargers's last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games at home
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Tampa Bay vs Detroit
Tampa Bay is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Cleveland vs Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Seattle vs New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home
NY Giants vs Washington
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
NY Giants is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games
LA Rams vs Arizona
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Pittsburgh vs Denver
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati vs Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Chicago vs Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 6-2 ATS inhome its last 8 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
Atlanta vs Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 2
Thursday’s game
Bills @ Dolphins (-1.5)
Bills (1-0)
Bills are 9-3-1 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.
Buffalo averaged 8.9 yards/pass attempt LW, was only 3-9 on 3rd down.
Last 5 years, Buffalo is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in its road opener.
Last six years, Bills are 10-7-1 ATS in AFC East road games.
Buffalo is 14-3-1 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Bills are 19-9-3 ATS in last 31 games on natural grass.
QB Allen is 69-35 as NFL starter; he is expected to play, despite hurting his left hand last week.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
Dolphins (1-0)
Under McDaniel, Miami is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Last week, Dolphins threw for 319 yards, were 8-16 on 3rd down.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-2 ATS in AFC East home games.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Tagovailoa is 33-20 as an NFL starter.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Buffalo won 10 of last 11 series games.
Bills are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits to Miami.
Over is 7-4 in last eleven meetings.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 2
Thursday’s game
Bills @ Dolphins (-1.5)
Bills (1-0)
Bills are 9-3-1 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.
Buffalo averaged 8.9 yards/pass attempt LW, was only 3-9 on 3rd down.
Last 5 years, Buffalo is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in its road opener.
Last six years, Bills are 10-7-1 ATS in AFC East road games.
Buffalo is 14-3-1 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Bills are 19-9-3 ATS in last 31 games on natural grass.
QB Allen is 69-35 as NFL starter; he is expected to play, despite hurting his left hand last week.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
Dolphins (1-0)
Under McDaniel, Miami is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Last week, Dolphins threw for 319 yards, were 8-16 on 3rd down.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-2 ATS in AFC East home games.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Tagovailoa is 33-20 as an NFL starter.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Buffalo won 10 of last 11 series games.
Bills are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits to Miami.
Over is 7-4 in last eleven meetings.
Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL spreads for this week:
— Bills @ Miami (-2.5)
— Raiders @ Baltimore (-9.5)
— Chargers (-6.5) @ Carolina
— Saints @ Dallas (-6.5)
— Buccaneers @ Detroit (-7)
— Colts (-3) @ Green Bay
Quote of the Day
“I couldn’t coach bad players to play good.”
Nick Saban
Wednesday’s quiz
Who is the only major league pitcher to throw a no-hitter, and later become a US Senator after his playing days were done?
Tuesday’s quiz
Aaron Rodgers played his college football for the Cal Bears.
Monday’s quiz
Before Sunday, Robert Griffin III was the last rookie QB to start a game for the Washington Redskins/Commanders; that happened in 2012.
*************************************
AAC- 9-4 ATS, 6-2 as a road underdog
ACC- 7-8 ATS, 1-4 as a home favorite
Big X- 7-9 ATS, 0-3 as a road favorite
Big 18- 10-12 ATS, 8-9 s a home favorite (only 2 lined road games)
C-USA- 3-5 ATS, 2-4 as a road underdog.
MAC- 8-9 ATS, 7-6 as a road underdog.
Mountain West- 6-6 ATS, 6-4 as an underdog
SEC- 9-7 ATS, 4-5 as a home favorite
Sun Belt- 8-8 ATS, 1-4 as a home favorite
— This was the first Week 1 in 45 years that three NFL teams won, after trailing by 14+ points. Dolphins, Bears, Bills all trailed by 14+, but wound up winning.
— Since Week 9 of the 2022 season, Detroit Lions are 23-8 ATS.
— Two NFL players share the current record for most teams played for:
9- Josh McCown (2002-19)
9- Ryan Fitzpatrick (2005-21)……both guys were quarterbacks.
Nobody has played for eight teams; 25 guys have played for seven.
— NFL kickers were 21-23 last week on kicks of 50+ yards. Pretty, pretty good.
— 10 WRs had 100+ receiving yards in Week 1; Dolphins were only team that had two guys with 100+ receiving yards, Tyreek Hill/Jayden Waddle.
— Seven guys had 100+ rushing yards last week, including QB Lamar Jackson; Houston’s Joe Mixon leads the league with 159 rushing yards.
— College football teams playing the fastest tempo so far this year:
Oklahoma State
Old Dominion
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Texas Tech
Mississippi State
Toledo……..all 7 teams are averaging less than 21 seconds/snap.
— Famous birthdays, September 11th:
Earl Holliman, 96
Tom Dreesen, 85
Rod Perry, 71
Kristy McNichol, 62
Gerald Wilkins, 61
Bern Brostek, 58
Harry Connick Jr, 57
Ed Reed, 46
Zay Flowers, 24
— NHL’s Edmonton Oilers are favored to win the Presidents’ Trophy (best regular season record) for the first time since 1987.
— This week, there are two college football games between two top 25 teams:
Friday: Arizona @ Kansas State
Saturday: Boston College @ Missouri
— Clemson DB Caleb Nix hurt his knee on the first play of the Tigers’ game vs Appalachian State last week, but he played the rest of the game.
Turns out he tore his ACL, and played the whole game with it.
— Remember in the movie Moneyball, where Billy Beane is sitting at a table with a bunch of A’s scouts, talking about prospects?
Chicago Cubs just fired four veteran scouts, Boston Red Sox fired three of them, as veteran scouts are becoming less prominent. Change is happening, not sure if it is change for the better, but it is happening.
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
NL: Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Dodgers Wild Cards– Padres-Arizona-Mets
AL: Bronx, Cleveland, Houston Wild Cards– Orioles-Royals-Twins
Interesting NFL spreads for this week:
— Bills @ Miami (-2.5)
— Raiders @ Baltimore (-9.5)
— Chargers (-6.5) @ Carolina
— Saints @ Dallas (-6.5)
— Buccaneers @ Detroit (-7)
— Colts (-3) @ Green Bay
Quote of the Day
“I couldn’t coach bad players to play good.”
Nick Saban
Wednesday’s quiz
Who is the only major league pitcher to throw a no-hitter, and later become a US Senator after his playing days were done?
Tuesday’s quiz
Aaron Rodgers played his college football for the Cal Bears.
Monday’s quiz
Before Sunday, Robert Griffin III was the last rookie QB to start a game for the Washington Redskins/Commanders; that happened in 2012.
*************************************
Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….
— How college football conferences are doing so far ATS:AAC- 9-4 ATS, 6-2 as a road underdog
ACC- 7-8 ATS, 1-4 as a home favorite
Big X- 7-9 ATS, 0-3 as a road favorite
Big 18- 10-12 ATS, 8-9 s a home favorite (only 2 lined road games)
C-USA- 3-5 ATS, 2-4 as a road underdog.
MAC- 8-9 ATS, 7-6 as a road underdog.
Mountain West- 6-6 ATS, 6-4 as an underdog
SEC- 9-7 ATS, 4-5 as a home favorite
Sun Belt- 8-8 ATS, 1-4 as a home favorite
— This was the first Week 1 in 45 years that three NFL teams won, after trailing by 14+ points. Dolphins, Bears, Bills all trailed by 14+, but wound up winning.
— Since Week 9 of the 2022 season, Detroit Lions are 23-8 ATS.
— Two NFL players share the current record for most teams played for:
9- Josh McCown (2002-19)
9- Ryan Fitzpatrick (2005-21)……both guys were quarterbacks.
Nobody has played for eight teams; 25 guys have played for seven.
— NFL kickers were 21-23 last week on kicks of 50+ yards. Pretty, pretty good.
— 10 WRs had 100+ receiving yards in Week 1; Dolphins were only team that had two guys with 100+ receiving yards, Tyreek Hill/Jayden Waddle.
— Seven guys had 100+ rushing yards last week, including QB Lamar Jackson; Houston’s Joe Mixon leads the league with 159 rushing yards.
— College football teams playing the fastest tempo so far this year:
Oklahoma State
Old Dominion
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Texas Tech
Mississippi State
Toledo……..all 7 teams are averaging less than 21 seconds/snap.
— Famous birthdays, September 11th:
Earl Holliman, 96
Tom Dreesen, 85
Rod Perry, 71
Kristy McNichol, 62
Gerald Wilkins, 61
Bern Brostek, 58
Harry Connick Jr, 57
Ed Reed, 46
Zay Flowers, 24
— NHL’s Edmonton Oilers are favored to win the Presidents’ Trophy (best regular season record) for the first time since 1987.
— This week, there are two college football games between two top 25 teams:
Friday: Arizona @ Kansas State
Saturday: Boston College @ Missouri
— Clemson DB Caleb Nix hurt his knee on the first play of the Tigers’ game vs Appalachian State last week, but he played the rest of the game.
Turns out he tore his ACL, and played the whole game with it.
— Remember in the movie Moneyball, where Billy Beane is sitting at a table with a bunch of A’s scouts, talking about prospects?
Chicago Cubs just fired four veteran scouts, Boston Red Sox fired three of them, as veteran scouts are becoming less prominent. Change is happening, not sure if it is change for the better, but it is happening.
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
NL: Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Dodgers Wild Cards– Padres-Arizona-Mets
AL: Bronx, Cleveland, Houston Wild Cards– Orioles-Royals-Twins
Top NFL Things To Know
Favorites Reign
Week 1 Stays ChalkNFL favorites went 13-3 straight up on the moneyline (9-7 ATS) in Week 1. That is tied for the best SU record for Week 1 favorites since realignment in 2002 (also 13-3 SU in 2009).
Favorites also started the season 4-0 SU/ATS in night games during Week 1.
The 2020, 2014, 2009 and 2007 seasons were the last times favorites went undefeated SU in Week 1 night games. The last time the favorites in all the night games went undefeated SU/ATS in Week 1 was back in 1995, when they had just two games. This year is the first in which favorites went undefeated SU/ATS in Week 1 night games with at least 3 games played.
The overreaction to favorites based on Week 1 has arrived — 10 of 16 games have seen the opening favorites line get bigger. That mark of 10+ games would be the most in a Week 2 in the past 20 years — no season in that span even closed with nine such games.
Different Opponents
NFC South Change RolesThe Saints closed as 3.5-pt favorites vs. Panthers. This week, they are about 6-pt 'dogs to the Cowboys.
We haven't seen a team win by 20+ in Week 1 be listed as a 'dog of 6 or more points since the 49ers and Blaine Gabbert did so in 2016. Additionally, only two teams have closed as 7+ pt 'dogs after a Week 1 thrashing — the 2016 49ers and the 1998 Cowboys — both losing by exactly 19 pts.
The Bucs closed as 4-pt favorites vs. Commanders. This week, they are about 7-pt 'dogs to the Lions.
Since 1990, we've only seen four teams win Week 1 win by 17+ pts and be a 7+ pt 'dog in Week 2, with the Rams last year being the last team to do so. Those four teams are 1-3 ATS, but 0-4 SU, losing by 17.5 PPG.
Different weeks for both teams.
Singles Life
All Eyes on BaltimoreThe Ravens were 7.5-pt lookahead favorites against the Raiders, but that's already up to 9.5.
There's a chance we see no double-digit favorites in Week 1 or 2 in consecutive seasons for the first time since the merger in 1970. In the 55 seasons since the merger, there has been a double-digit favorite within the first two weeks in 49 of those seasons (ones that didn’t: 2024, 2023, 2020, 2015, 1984 and 1980).
Desperate Times
After Blowing Big LeadsThe Cardinals, Jaguars and Titans all blew 10+ point leads in Week 1. Teams to blow a 10+ pt lead in Week 1 are 29-17 SU and 28-17-1 ATS in Week 2 since 1990. Within the first four weeks of the regular season, those desperate teams coming off blowing their previous games see their next game go 80-56-3 (59%) to the over, going over by almost 4 PPG.
We'll Actually Run
Pass Game MissingIn Week 1, there were a total of 34 passing touchdowns between all 32 teams. That's three fewer than last year and for some perspective, 2021 had 61 pass TDs in Week 1.
Only 8 of 24 QBs went over 1.5 passing TDs in Week 1. There were 17 QBs with fewer than 200 passing yards with 20+ pass attempts in Week 1, the most since the merger in 1970.
There were also 24 QBs with one or fewer passing touchdowns with 20+ pass attempts in Week 1, the most since the merger in 1970.
Two teams threw for 300+ passing yards: The Dolphins and Rams. Neither covered the spread, the first time since 2010 no team with 300+ pass yds covered a Week 1 game.
The overreaction to totals based on bad passing play has shown up in Week 2 as 12 of 16 games have seen their totals drop from their opening line. That mark of 12+ games to see their total drop would be the most in a Week 2 in the past 20 years.
A Wins, A Win
No. 1 Picks in Second StartCaleb Williams was the 19th quarterback since the merger to go No. 1 overall and start in Week 1 of his draft year. Those quarterbacks are now 4-14-1 SU and 6-13 ATS in Week 1. Overall, No. 1 picks to start at QB are 5-22-1 SU and 8-20 ATS in the first start of their careers. The last No. 1 pick to win his first start before last Sunday was David Carr in 2002. No. 1 picks are now 1-14-1 SU and 2-14 ATS since 2003.
Williams' 1st start didn't go so well. In fact, 11 QBs have had 25+ pass attempts and fewer than 100 pass yds in their first career start. Here is the group to do it since 2000: Williams, Tommy DeVito, Desmond Ridder and Brett Hundley.
How did those 27 QBs perform in their second start?
- 5-22 SU, 10-16-1 ATS
- 3-7 SU, 7-3 ATS since 2010
- 4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS since 2003
Lots of Holes
Packers Go To BackupWith Jordan Love sidelined, the Packers will go to a backup QB for just their second game since 2017. Their last such game came in 2021, when Love came in for Aaron Rodgers against the Chiefs and lost 13-7, but covered the 7-pt spread. In the past decade, the Packers have won one game SU at home with a backup QB (1-4 SU), that came by Brett Hundley in 2017.
Over the past 20 years, only 3 QBs are above .500 ATS for the Packers – Rodgers, Brett Favre and Love – the other four – Matt Flynn, Seneca Wallace, Hundley and Scott Tolzien – are .500 ATS or worse.
Here is how backup QBs have performed in their first start as a backup for that team that season, while also being listed as an underdog:
9-16 SU (36%), 12-12-1 ATS since start of last season
20-49 SU (29%), 37-30-2 ATS (55%) since 2021 – past three seasons.
Buy Low
Panthers Time?Panthers had the worst loss of Week 1, losing by 37 pts to the Saints. In the last 20 years, teams to lose by 35+ pts and are underdogs of 4 pts or more in their next game are 50-18-2 ATS (73.5%) — but some caution. Those teams are just 6-6 ATS in the first four weeks of the regular season.
Bo Goes Low
Broncos Low TotalThe Steelers–Broncos lookahead line was 40.5, but is now south of 37/37.5 in the market. If the total closes at 36 or lower, it would be the Broncos lowest O/U in a home game since their 2012 playoff game against the Steelers that closed at 34 — the infamous Tim Tebow-Demaryius Thomas overtime TD winner.
Time Is Running Out
Low PossessionThe Jets, Colts, Panthers and Falcons were held to 25 minutes of possession or less in their Week 1 losses, the four lowest times in the NFL.
Last decade, teams to hold 25 minutes of possession or less in Week 1 are just 8-23 SU (26%) and 6-25 ATS (19%) in their Week 2 game.
20:00 |
21:20 |
23:21 |
24:24 |
Overtime Effect
Looking To Next WeekThe Lions and Rams played overtime on SNF in Week 1. Historically, teams off an overtime game, playing on 7 days rest or less, who face a team who isn't off the extra session, win just 43.7% of games over the last decade, covering just 45.5% of them.
1. Week 1 favorites of 6 points or more that lost their games have bounced back with a record of 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS (76%) in Week 2 since 2002 (+12.4 units, ROI: 49.6%, Grade 70)
Teams favored by 6 points or more in Week 1 are typically well-respected clubs in the NFL, and naturally they tend to bounce back when aided by a sense of urgency. In 2020, San Francisco and Indianapolis both responded to Week 1 upset losses with easy Week 2 wins. In 2021, the Bills rebounded quickly against Miami, winning 35-0. In 2022, San Francisco won handily, Denver won but failed to cover, and Cincinnati lost outright. There were no plays last year. The Bengals are back on the clock for 2024, but they face a difficult task in having to go to Arrowhead and take on the defending Super Bowl champs.
2024 Plays: CINCINNATI
2. NFL Week 2 teams that scored 30+ points last week and are now playing as favorites of 6-points or less or are underdogs are 17-37 SU and 19-35 ATS (35.2%) since 2012 (-19.5 units, ROI.: -36.1%, Grade 70)
If there’s any sign that what we saw from a team the prior week is not indicative of their true selves, this system would reveal it. Oddsmakers clearly don’t trust these teams’ explosive Week 1 efforts, as they aren’t priced as if that potency is going to last. Seemingly, it doesn’t, as these big Week 1 performers crash back down to earth quickly. For 2024, there were six teams that hit the 30-point mark in Week 1, and interestingly, two of them match up against one another in the Saints-Cowboys contest.
2024 Plays: Play AGAINST BUFFALO, NEW ORLEANS, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO
3. Teams that beat their Week 1 point spread by 8 points or more in non-conference games are 20-10-3 Under (66.7%) the total in Week 2 since 2002 (+9.0 units, ROI: 30%, Grade 64)
Week 1 higher-scoring teams typically grab the attention of bettors. Having lit it up against unfamiliar opponents, they typically come back down to earth offensively against higher totals from oddsmakers. For 2024, all three teams that became qualifiers are favorites, and as such, we should expect big defensive efforts from them.
2024 Plays: Play UNDER in NEW ORLEANS-DALLAS, SAN FRANCISO-MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH-DENVER
4. Teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 16-9 SU and 15-9-1 ATS (62.5%) in Week 2 since 2007 (+5.1 units, ROI.: 24.6%, Grade 60)
Second-week point spread adjustments tend to go against teams that were beaten soundly by divisional opponents in Week 1 and are, in most cases, over-adjustments. For 2024, it will take some courage to back this system, as Carolina was awful at New Orleans and will try to respond this week as a 6.5-point home dog to the Chargers.
2024 Plays: Play ON CAROLINA
5. Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under (65%) the total in Week 2 since 2005 (+14.8 units, ROI: 24.7%, Grade 63)
This one is genuinely tough to explain, but it could stem from the emotional toll of winning a close game and the potential offensive letdown that might occur, at least early in the contest. Whatever the reason, 18 games over .500 gives the system merit. One of the two qualifying games for this one is on Thursday night, and those TNF contests have become well-known for unexpectedly low-scoring contests on occasion.
2024 Plays: UNDER in Buffalo-MIAMI, Chicago-HOUSTON
6. Teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 47-28-3 ATS (62.7%) in Week 2 over the last 12 seasons (+16.2 units, ROI: 21.6%, Grade 58)
This is as direct of an overreaction system as there is, and it goes against all that the betting public was told they “learned” in Week 1. With so much emotion on the line in a season opener, it’s no wonder a team over- or underachieves in that contest. Those who got beat soundly in their opener have had a tendency to come back strong in their second games. These are hard teams to back, though, as your initial impression is that they aren’t good. Six of this year’s 16 Week 1 games were decided by 10+ points, and four teams qualify for this angle as Washington/NY Giants cancel each other out.
2024 Plays: NY JETS, CAROLINA, LAS VEGAS, CLEVELAND
7. Teams whose opponent played in the weeknight season opening game and thus have extra rest are 15-23 SU but 22-15-1 ATS (59.5%) in Week 2 since 2005 (+5.5 units, R.O.I.: 14.9%, Grade 53)
Routine, Routine, Routine. Teams that play in the season opener are out of that typical routine, and most teams rely on that for peak performance throughout the season. Extra rest is typically valued more at later parts in the season. This is a tough system to stomach, usually, since it requires fading two of the better teams in the league. For 2024, we also had a Friday game, which featured the Packers and Eagles. We’ll keep track of how the Colts and Falcons fare in Week 2, as those are the opponents for those teams. However, the system has only included the opening night games for now.
2024 Plays: Play on CINCINNATI, LAS VEGAS
8. Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 27-23 SU and 27-19-2 ATS (58.7%) since 2006 in Week 2 (+6.1 units, ROI.: 13.3%, Grade 50)
The momentum created by a big divisional win in Week 1 seems to carry over well into Week 2. This system is only 5-9 SU and 7-7 ATS over the last four seasons, so it is also teetering on the edge of removal from the list. For 2024, there are two qualifiers. Both are on the road for their Week 2 games, and the Chargers are taking on the same Carolina team that the Saints crushed last week.
2024 Plays: Play on LA CHARGERS, NEW ORLEANS
9. In NFL Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a phenomenal run of 18-21 SU but 26-11-2 ATS (70.3%) since 2014 (+14.8 units, ROI: 40%, Grade 68)
The point spread in the NFL can generate a lot of motivation. When a team is an underdog against another team that underperformed last week, that team can feel a bit of disrespect. On the other hand, its tough being a favorite in the NFL, especially when a team isn’t clicking. The favorites in these games didn’t play well in Week 1; what’s to say they will respond in Week 2 when expected to win.
2024 Plays: Play on TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, BUFFALO, LAS VEGAS
10. In NFL Week 2 games between teams that are both 1-0 ATS, underdogs also rule at the betting window, 19-26 SU but 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%) since 2012 (+8.3 units, ROI.: 18.9%, Grade 60)
This system is 10-1 ATS since 2020, as again underdogs are highly motivated by the point spread, particularly since they played well enough to cover the prior week, perhaps building confidence.
2024 Plays: Play on MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, DENVER, NEW ORLEANS
11. Teams playing a second straight home game in Week 2 and are favored have gone 13-8 SU and but 5-16 ATS (27.3%) over the last 12 seasons (-12.6 units, ROI.: -60%, Grade 65)
This system is 1-9 ATS since 2017, as perhaps too much stock is put into the back-to-back home field edge scenario. This is also going to be a system in which you’ll have to probably fade the public and go against the grain on, as the Dolphins, Lions, and Chiefs have been some of the most formidable teams at home in the league over the past couple of seasons.
2024 Plays: Play AGAINST MIAMI, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY
Teams favored by 6 points or more in Week 1 are typically well-respected clubs in the NFL, and naturally they tend to bounce back when aided by a sense of urgency. In 2020, San Francisco and Indianapolis both responded to Week 1 upset losses with easy Week 2 wins. In 2021, the Bills rebounded quickly against Miami, winning 35-0. In 2022, San Francisco won handily, Denver won but failed to cover, and Cincinnati lost outright. There were no plays last year. The Bengals are back on the clock for 2024, but they face a difficult task in having to go to Arrowhead and take on the defending Super Bowl champs.
2024 Plays: CINCINNATI
2. NFL Week 2 teams that scored 30+ points last week and are now playing as favorites of 6-points or less or are underdogs are 17-37 SU and 19-35 ATS (35.2%) since 2012 (-19.5 units, ROI.: -36.1%, Grade 70)
If there’s any sign that what we saw from a team the prior week is not indicative of their true selves, this system would reveal it. Oddsmakers clearly don’t trust these teams’ explosive Week 1 efforts, as they aren’t priced as if that potency is going to last. Seemingly, it doesn’t, as these big Week 1 performers crash back down to earth quickly. For 2024, there were six teams that hit the 30-point mark in Week 1, and interestingly, two of them match up against one another in the Saints-Cowboys contest.
2024 Plays: Play AGAINST BUFFALO, NEW ORLEANS, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO
3. Teams that beat their Week 1 point spread by 8 points or more in non-conference games are 20-10-3 Under (66.7%) the total in Week 2 since 2002 (+9.0 units, ROI: 30%, Grade 64)
Week 1 higher-scoring teams typically grab the attention of bettors. Having lit it up against unfamiliar opponents, they typically come back down to earth offensively against higher totals from oddsmakers. For 2024, all three teams that became qualifiers are favorites, and as such, we should expect big defensive efforts from them.
2024 Plays: Play UNDER in NEW ORLEANS-DALLAS, SAN FRANCISO-MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH-DENVER
4. Teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 16-9 SU and 15-9-1 ATS (62.5%) in Week 2 since 2007 (+5.1 units, ROI.: 24.6%, Grade 60)
Second-week point spread adjustments tend to go against teams that were beaten soundly by divisional opponents in Week 1 and are, in most cases, over-adjustments. For 2024, it will take some courage to back this system, as Carolina was awful at New Orleans and will try to respond this week as a 6.5-point home dog to the Chargers.
2024 Plays: Play ON CAROLINA
5. Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under (65%) the total in Week 2 since 2005 (+14.8 units, ROI: 24.7%, Grade 63)
This one is genuinely tough to explain, but it could stem from the emotional toll of winning a close game and the potential offensive letdown that might occur, at least early in the contest. Whatever the reason, 18 games over .500 gives the system merit. One of the two qualifying games for this one is on Thursday night, and those TNF contests have become well-known for unexpectedly low-scoring contests on occasion.
2024 Plays: UNDER in Buffalo-MIAMI, Chicago-HOUSTON
6. Teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 47-28-3 ATS (62.7%) in Week 2 over the last 12 seasons (+16.2 units, ROI: 21.6%, Grade 58)
This is as direct of an overreaction system as there is, and it goes against all that the betting public was told they “learned” in Week 1. With so much emotion on the line in a season opener, it’s no wonder a team over- or underachieves in that contest. Those who got beat soundly in their opener have had a tendency to come back strong in their second games. These are hard teams to back, though, as your initial impression is that they aren’t good. Six of this year’s 16 Week 1 games were decided by 10+ points, and four teams qualify for this angle as Washington/NY Giants cancel each other out.
2024 Plays: NY JETS, CAROLINA, LAS VEGAS, CLEVELAND
7. Teams whose opponent played in the weeknight season opening game and thus have extra rest are 15-23 SU but 22-15-1 ATS (59.5%) in Week 2 since 2005 (+5.5 units, R.O.I.: 14.9%, Grade 53)
Routine, Routine, Routine. Teams that play in the season opener are out of that typical routine, and most teams rely on that for peak performance throughout the season. Extra rest is typically valued more at later parts in the season. This is a tough system to stomach, usually, since it requires fading two of the better teams in the league. For 2024, we also had a Friday game, which featured the Packers and Eagles. We’ll keep track of how the Colts and Falcons fare in Week 2, as those are the opponents for those teams. However, the system has only included the opening night games for now.
2024 Plays: Play on CINCINNATI, LAS VEGAS
8. Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 27-23 SU and 27-19-2 ATS (58.7%) since 2006 in Week 2 (+6.1 units, ROI.: 13.3%, Grade 50)
The momentum created by a big divisional win in Week 1 seems to carry over well into Week 2. This system is only 5-9 SU and 7-7 ATS over the last four seasons, so it is also teetering on the edge of removal from the list. For 2024, there are two qualifiers. Both are on the road for their Week 2 games, and the Chargers are taking on the same Carolina team that the Saints crushed last week.
2024 Plays: Play on LA CHARGERS, NEW ORLEANS
9. In NFL Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a phenomenal run of 18-21 SU but 26-11-2 ATS (70.3%) since 2014 (+14.8 units, ROI: 40%, Grade 68)
The point spread in the NFL can generate a lot of motivation. When a team is an underdog against another team that underperformed last week, that team can feel a bit of disrespect. On the other hand, its tough being a favorite in the NFL, especially when a team isn’t clicking. The favorites in these games didn’t play well in Week 1; what’s to say they will respond in Week 2 when expected to win.
2024 Plays: Play on TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, BUFFALO, LAS VEGAS
10. In NFL Week 2 games between teams that are both 1-0 ATS, underdogs also rule at the betting window, 19-26 SU but 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%) since 2012 (+8.3 units, ROI.: 18.9%, Grade 60)
This system is 10-1 ATS since 2020, as again underdogs are highly motivated by the point spread, particularly since they played well enough to cover the prior week, perhaps building confidence.
2024 Plays: Play on MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, DENVER, NEW ORLEANS
11. Teams playing a second straight home game in Week 2 and are favored have gone 13-8 SU and but 5-16 ATS (27.3%) over the last 12 seasons (-12.6 units, ROI.: -60%, Grade 65)
This system is 1-9 ATS since 2017, as perhaps too much stock is put into the back-to-back home field edge scenario. This is also going to be a system in which you’ll have to probably fade the public and go against the grain on, as the Dolphins, Lions, and Chiefs have been some of the most formidable teams at home in the league over the past couple of seasons.
2024 Plays: Play AGAINST MIAMI, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY
1. San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Vikings Dominate the Niners at Home: When the Minnesota Vikings play the San Francisco 49ers at home, they’ve been nearly unbeatable against the spread (ATS), going 10-2-0. This matchup historically favors Minnesota in their own building, with a 9-3 SU record. If you like underdogs, take note: the Vikings have a knack for keeping this rivalry tight.
- O/U Trend: The total has gone Under in 8 of the last 12 meetings when these two teams clash in Minnesota.
2. New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Saints Shine as Underdogs: The New Orleans Saints love being underdogs, especially against the Dallas Cowboys. As underdogs, the Saints are an impressive 10-2 ATS. They’ve also won 7 of 12 games outright as the dog in this matchup.
- O/U Trend: Games between these two tend to lean toward the Under, with a 5-7 O/U record when the Saints are the dog.
3. Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers
- Colts Thrive Against NFC North: The Indianapolis Colts have been a dominant force when visiting NFC North teams, holding a 10-2 ATS record. Against the Packers, they’ve been equally tough, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 matchups, and 8-2 to the Over in those games. If you like high-scoring affairs, Colts-Packers games tend to deliver.
4. New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders
- Total Trends for the Giants: When the New York Giants play in games with a total between 41.5 and 44 points, they are 12-3 ATS. However, they’ve struggled to win outright, going 7-8 SU. This suggests the Giants can cover tight spreads but may not pull off the win.
- O/U Trend: These games have skewed toward the Under, with a 6-9 O/U record.
5. Tennessee Titans vs. AFC East Teams
- Titans as Home Underdogs: The Tennessee Titans perform well as home underdogs against AFC East opponents, going 8-2 ATS. This trend suggests that the Titans love playing the underdog role in front of their home crowd against teams from the AFC East.
6. Kansas City Chiefs
- Chiefs Are Kings in September: The Kansas City Chiefs dominate early in the season, especially in September, with a 16-4 SU record. At home as favorites with totals between 47.5 and 51, they’ve gone 24-2 SU, but interestingly, they’ve only hit the Over 8 times in 26 games, meaning many of these matchups stay Under the total.
7. Baltimore Ravens as Home Favorites
- Ravens Bounce Back: The Baltimore Ravens have a stellar record when playing as home favorites, especially in low-scoring affairs. With totals between 41.5 and 44, they’ve gone 27-17-1 ATS and an astounding 37-8 SU. If the total stays under 44, it’s usually good news for Ravens backers.
- Spread Trends: Baltimore is also tough when favored by 8-10.5 points, going 46-8 SU in these situations.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
- Eagles Start Strong in September: The Philadelphia Eagles come out hot in September, going 8-2 SU in early-season games. They are a team that historically plays well when the season starts, so expect them to cover and win in their Week 2 matchup.
9. Dallas Cowboys as Home Favorites
- Dallas at Home with Moderate Spreads: The Cowboys love playing as home favorites, particularly with a spread between 4 and 7.5 points, where they’ve gone 7-3 ATS and 8-2 SU. They are reliable when given a moderate home advantage, and this trend suggests a good opportunity to back the Cowboys in these situations.
10. Carolina Panthers as Home Underdogs
- Panthers Thrive Off Losses: The Carolina Panthers may have struggled in recent years, but they show grit as home underdogs after a road loss, going 12-3-1 ATS. This trend points to the Panthers being a solid bet to cover the spread when they return home after a tough road game.
11. Cleveland Browns in September
- Browns Low Scoring in September: The Cleveland Browns tend to struggle offensively in September, especially before non-conference games. When they score 17 points or less, they’ve gone 7-4 ATS but just 2-9 O/U, meaning these games often stay Under the total.
12. Cincinnati Bengals as Road Underdogs
- Bengals on the Road: The Cincinnati Bengals have been solid as road underdogs when coming off an ATS loss, going 10-2-1 ATS. While they may not always win these games outright, they cover the spread more often than not.
Best NFL Week 2 betting trends
Bills vs Dolphins
The trend: These teams have cleared 60 combined points in three of their last four games against each otherThe trend: Under Dennis Allen, the Saints are 4-10-1 ATS after a win
The trend: In games after a loss last season the Ravens went 4-0 SU & ATS with a win margin of 17.75 points
The trend: The Commanders have allowed at least 27 points in nine straight games
The trend: The Panthers went under their team total in seven of eight home games last season
The trend: As an underdog of three or more points, the Packers have gone 14-3 ATS since Matt LaFleur took over in 2019.
The trend: The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games at home
The trend: The Browns have gone Over in ten straight road games
The trend: Since the start of last season, the Patriots have gone Under their team total in 13 of 18 games
The trend: The Jets are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games played in the month of September
The trend: The Bucs are 7-2 ATS as a road underdog since the start of last season
The trend: The Rams are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games in Arizona
The trend: The Broncos are 14-4 ATS in the first quarter since the start of last season
The trend: Since Joe Burrow’s debut in 2020, the Bengals are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in games played in Week 1 & 2
The trend: The Bears have gone Under in eight of their last 11 games
The trend: The Eagles have gone Over in 18 of their last 22 home games
Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting college football spreads for this week:
— West Virginia (-2) @ Pittsburgh
— Indiana (-3) @ UCLA
— Colorado (-7) @ Colorado State
— Central Florida (-2.5) @ TCU
— Maryland (-2.5) @ Virginia
— Rice @ Houston (-4)
Quote of the Day
“They’re definitely not sending cash. It’s funny. When they lose money, they want their money back. But when they win money on a parlay, no one’s ever sent me any of the money.”
Auburn QB Payton Thorne
Thursday’s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, what well-known actor plays the Bulls’ pitching coach?
Wednesday’s quiz
Jim Bunning is the only major league pitcher to throw a no-hitter, and later become a US Senator after his playing days were done.
Tuesday’s quiz
Aaron Rodgers played his college football for the Cal Bears.
***************************************************
“They’re definitely not sending cash. It’s funny, when they lose money, they want the money back, but when they win money on the parley, no one’s ever saying they want to pay the money.”
Thorne threw 4 INT’s in Auburn’s upset loss to California last week; I’m thinking that these college teams have to have security teams around the players in their dorms, making sure some nitwit doesn’t try to make an appearance on Law & Order.
— Arizona State plays Texas State in football tonight; the QB for Texas State is Jordan McCloud, who has had an interesting college career:
2019- He threw 224 passes for South Florida (4-8)
2020- He threw 194 passes for South Florida (1-8)
2021- He threw 73 passes for Arizona (1-11)
2023- He threw 412 passes for James Madison (11-2)
2024- He’s thrown 57 passes for Texas State (2-0)
Six years, five seasons, four colleges. Someday he can write a hell of a book. He’ll be 25 in early November, older than any of the three rookie QBs starting in the NFL this month.
— Not only did Northern Illinois upset Notre Dame 16-14 last week, they banked a check for $1.4M on the way home, the guarantee $$$ they got for visiting South Bend.
Teams in the MAC/Sun Belt usually get their butts kicked in these guarantee games, but they bank big checks which help finance their mid-major programs. Every once in a while an upset happens. NIU actually outgained Notre Dame 388-286 in that game.
— Random trivia: When the New York Jets started playing in the AFL in 1960, they were the New York Titans, not the Jets- they became the Jets in 1963.
When the Tennessee Titans started playing in the AFL in 1960, they were the Houston Oilers; they moved to Tennessee in 1997. Oilers won the first two AFL titles, way back when.
This week, the old Titans (the Jets) meet the current Titans (the old Oilers) in Nashville.
— Famous birthdays, September 12:
Mickey Lolich, 84
Joe Pantoliano, 73
Rachel Ward, 67
Deron Cherry, 65
Vernon Maxwell, 59
Ki-Jana Carter, 51
Yao Ming, 44
Andrew Luck, 35
Freddie Freeman, 35
— Should the Carolina Panthers sit QB Bryce Young? The 2nd-year QB is 2-15 as a starter; would it help him to sit back for a few weeks and watch veteran backup Andy Dalton play?
Carolina lost its last three games by a combined 82-10; it isn’t Young’s fault that the morons in the Carolina front office traded Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers and DJ Moore to the Bears, but getting pummeled every week doesn’t seem to be working very well. Maybe a change of pace would slow the game down for Young and help him improve
(subtle reminder that Patrick Mahomes’ first career start was the last game of his rookie year)
— In addition to betting totals on games, you can bet over/unders on team totals; in Week 1, over was 16-13-3 in team totals. I actually think team totals are a fun way to bet NFL games.
— San Diego Padres were 82-80 last year, they’re 82-65 this year.
Last year’s Padres were 2-12 in extra innings, 80-68 in nine-inning tilts.
This year’s Padres are 8-1 in extra innings, 74-64 in nine-inning tilts.
— Is it a bad thing (yes, it is) when your favorite NFL team signs three new offensive linemen two days after their first game of the season?
LA Rams signed C Dylan McMahon off the Eagles’ practice squad.
They also signed Ty Nsekhe and Geron Christian off the street. Nsekhe played for the Browns LY, has played the Rams before. Christian has played for four different NFL teams.
— Pittsburgh Steelers lost P Cameron Johnson (knee) for the year last week; he was also the holder for kicker Chris Boswell, who was 6-6 on field goals in the win at Atlanta.
— Word of the Day: Potpourri- a mixture of things, especially a musical or literary medley.
This used to be a category on the old daytime Jeopardy! TV gameshow; you never knew what the question was going to pertain to. “Art, I’d like Potpourri for $60, please”
— New York Mets are only team in the major leagues that hasn’t had one at-bat taken by a rookie this season.
Mets 6, Blue Jays 2
Toronto P Francis had a no-hitter thru 8 IP (110 PT)
Francisco Lindor hit his 111th pitch out of the park to tie the game, 1-1. Mets then scored five more runs off the Toronto bullpen.
It is the second time in 18 days Francis had a no-hitter thru 8 IP; both times, the leadoff guy in the 9th inning hit a home run. The home run against the Angels came on his 117th pitch.
Francis has been great the last month or so; you’d think a non-contender like Toronto would want to protect him some, keep him healthy for next year, but no, the genius who manages the Blue Jays won’t take him out— not brilliant.
— Dodgers 10, Cubs 8
Dodgers hit four home runs in the first inning, then blew a 7-3 lead.
Shohei Ohtani homered, now has 47 taters and 48 stolen bases.
—Arizona 14, Rangers 4
Eugenio Suarez went 4-4, with two HR’s, scored four runs.
Ketel Marte went 3-4, with four RBI
— Red Sox 5, Orioles 3 (10)
Tyler O’Neill hit a walk-off, 3-run homer in the 10th inning.
Orioles are now 1.5 games out of first place in AL East.
— A’s 5, Astros 4
Backup C McCann hit the go-ahead HR in the sixth inning.
Houston’s lead in AL West is down to 3.5 games.
— Phillies 3, Rays 2
Zack Wheeler struck out nine hitters in 6 IP.
Philly’s magic number to clinch NL East is 9; this will be their first NL East title since 2011.
— Mariners 5, Padres 2
Bryan Woo had a perfect game thru six innings.
Luke Raley, JP Crawford both knocked in two runs.
Interesting college football spreads for this week:
— West Virginia (-2) @ Pittsburgh
— Indiana (-3) @ UCLA
— Colorado (-7) @ Colorado State
— Central Florida (-2.5) @ TCU
— Maryland (-2.5) @ Virginia
— Rice @ Houston (-4)
Quote of the Day
“They’re definitely not sending cash. It’s funny. When they lose money, they want their money back. But when they win money on a parlay, no one’s ever sent me any of the money.”
Auburn QB Payton Thorne
Thursday’s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, what well-known actor plays the Bulls’ pitching coach?
Wednesday’s quiz
Jim Bunning is the only major league pitcher to throw a no-hitter, and later become a US Senator after his playing days were done.
Tuesday’s quiz
Aaron Rodgers played his college football for the Cal Bears.
***************************************************
Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..
— Auburn QB Payton Thorne said angry bettors sent him Venmo requests after they lost their bets on Auburn:“They’re definitely not sending cash. It’s funny, when they lose money, they want the money back, but when they win money on the parley, no one’s ever saying they want to pay the money.”
Thorne threw 4 INT’s in Auburn’s upset loss to California last week; I’m thinking that these college teams have to have security teams around the players in their dorms, making sure some nitwit doesn’t try to make an appearance on Law & Order.
— Arizona State plays Texas State in football tonight; the QB for Texas State is Jordan McCloud, who has had an interesting college career:
2019- He threw 224 passes for South Florida (4-8)
2020- He threw 194 passes for South Florida (1-8)
2021- He threw 73 passes for Arizona (1-11)
2023- He threw 412 passes for James Madison (11-2)
2024- He’s thrown 57 passes for Texas State (2-0)
Six years, five seasons, four colleges. Someday he can write a hell of a book. He’ll be 25 in early November, older than any of the three rookie QBs starting in the NFL this month.
— Not only did Northern Illinois upset Notre Dame 16-14 last week, they banked a check for $1.4M on the way home, the guarantee $$$ they got for visiting South Bend.
Teams in the MAC/Sun Belt usually get their butts kicked in these guarantee games, but they bank big checks which help finance their mid-major programs. Every once in a while an upset happens. NIU actually outgained Notre Dame 388-286 in that game.
— Random trivia: When the New York Jets started playing in the AFL in 1960, they were the New York Titans, not the Jets- they became the Jets in 1963.
When the Tennessee Titans started playing in the AFL in 1960, they were the Houston Oilers; they moved to Tennessee in 1997. Oilers won the first two AFL titles, way back when.
This week, the old Titans (the Jets) meet the current Titans (the old Oilers) in Nashville.
— Famous birthdays, September 12:
Mickey Lolich, 84
Joe Pantoliano, 73
Rachel Ward, 67
Deron Cherry, 65
Vernon Maxwell, 59
Ki-Jana Carter, 51
Yao Ming, 44
Andrew Luck, 35
Freddie Freeman, 35
— Should the Carolina Panthers sit QB Bryce Young? The 2nd-year QB is 2-15 as a starter; would it help him to sit back for a few weeks and watch veteran backup Andy Dalton play?
Carolina lost its last three games by a combined 82-10; it isn’t Young’s fault that the morons in the Carolina front office traded Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers and DJ Moore to the Bears, but getting pummeled every week doesn’t seem to be working very well. Maybe a change of pace would slow the game down for Young and help him improve
(subtle reminder that Patrick Mahomes’ first career start was the last game of his rookie year)
— In addition to betting totals on games, you can bet over/unders on team totals; in Week 1, over was 16-13-3 in team totals. I actually think team totals are a fun way to bet NFL games.
— San Diego Padres were 82-80 last year, they’re 82-65 this year.
Last year’s Padres were 2-12 in extra innings, 80-68 in nine-inning tilts.
This year’s Padres are 8-1 in extra innings, 74-64 in nine-inning tilts.
— Is it a bad thing (yes, it is) when your favorite NFL team signs three new offensive linemen two days after their first game of the season?
LA Rams signed C Dylan McMahon off the Eagles’ practice squad.
They also signed Ty Nsekhe and Geron Christian off the street. Nsekhe played for the Browns LY, has played the Rams before. Christian has played for four different NFL teams.
— Pittsburgh Steelers lost P Cameron Johnson (knee) for the year last week; he was also the holder for kicker Chris Boswell, who was 6-6 on field goals in the win at Atlanta.
— Word of the Day: Potpourri- a mixture of things, especially a musical or literary medley.
This used to be a category on the old daytime Jeopardy! TV gameshow; you never knew what the question was going to pertain to. “Art, I’d like Potpourri for $60, please”
— New York Mets are only team in the major leagues that hasn’t had one at-bat taken by a rookie this season.
Mets 6, Blue Jays 2
Toronto P Francis had a no-hitter thru 8 IP (110 PT)
Francisco Lindor hit his 111th pitch out of the park to tie the game, 1-1. Mets then scored five more runs off the Toronto bullpen.
It is the second time in 18 days Francis had a no-hitter thru 8 IP; both times, the leadoff guy in the 9th inning hit a home run. The home run against the Angels came on his 117th pitch.
Francis has been great the last month or so; you’d think a non-contender like Toronto would want to protect him some, keep him healthy for next year, but no, the genius who manages the Blue Jays won’t take him out— not brilliant.
— Dodgers 10, Cubs 8
Dodgers hit four home runs in the first inning, then blew a 7-3 lead.
Shohei Ohtani homered, now has 47 taters and 48 stolen bases.
—Arizona 14, Rangers 4
Eugenio Suarez went 4-4, with two HR’s, scored four runs.
Ketel Marte went 3-4, with four RBI
— Red Sox 5, Orioles 3 (10)
Tyler O’Neill hit a walk-off, 3-run homer in the 10th inning.
Orioles are now 1.5 games out of first place in AL East.
— A’s 5, Astros 4
Backup C McCann hit the go-ahead HR in the sixth inning.
Houston’s lead in AL West is down to 3.5 games.
— Phillies 3, Rays 2
Zack Wheeler struck out nine hitters in 6 IP.
Philly’s magic number to clinch NL East is 9; this will be their first NL East title since 2011.
— Mariners 5, Padres 2
Bryan Woo had a perfect game thru six innings.
Luke Raley, JP Crawford both knocked in two runs.
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 2
Sunday’s games
Saints @ Cowboys (-6.5)
Saints (1-0)
Last week, Saints outgained Carolina 379-193 in a 47-10 home win.
Saints were 7-13 on third down, +2 in turnovers.
Since 2018, New Orleans is 14-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Carr is 73-88 as an NFL starter.
Since 2010, Saints are 5-9 SU/2-12 ATS in road openers.
Last 3 years, New Orleans is 7-14-2 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road games.
Cowboys (1-0)
LW, Dallas outgained Browns 265-230 in 33-17 road win.
Zimmer’s defense held Cleveland to 2.7 yards/pass attempt.
Last three years, Cowboys are 16-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Dallas was 20-14 ATS coming off a win.
QB Prescott is 76-46 as an NFL starter.
Dallas is 5-2 ATS in last seven home openers.
Over is 31-17 in last 48 Dallas home games.
Teams split last six series games.
Saints are 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS in last four visits to Dallas.
Last four meetings stayed under the total.
Buccaneers @ Lions (-7.5)
Buccaneers (1-0)
Mayfield averaged 9.0 yards/pass attempt in LW’s 37-20 win vs Washington
Bucs were 9-13 on third down, Commanders 2-8.
Under Bowles, Tampa Bay is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Last six years, Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU/ATS in road openers.
QB Mayfield is 43-48 as an NFL starter, 11-9 with Buccaneers.
Over is 10-6 in their last 16 road openers.
Last three years, under is 16-9 in Tampa Bay road games.
Lions (1-0)
LW, Lions tied game late, won home opener 26-20 in overtime.
Under Campbell, Lions are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, Detroit is 13-6 ATS coming off a win.
Lions were 6-13 on 3rd down LW, but allowed 304 PY.
Goff is 27-24-1 as Detroit’s QB (was 44-30 with Rams)
Over is 12-6 in their last 18 home games.
Detroit (-6) beat Tampa Bay 31-23 in LY’s playoffs.
Lions won six of last nine series games.
Buccaneers are 4-2 SU/ATS in last six visits to Detroit.
Browns @ Jaguars (-3)
Browns (0-1)
Cleveland gained only 230 TY in LW’s 33-17 home loss to Dallas.
Browns were 2-15 on 3rd down vs Dallas, 3-5 on 4th down.
Last three years, Cleveland is 6-10-1 ATS as road underdog.
QB Watson is 37-32 as an NFL starter, 8-5 with Browns.
Cleveland is 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 2-4 SU/4-2 ATS in its last six road openers.
Over is 3-0 in Browns’ last three road openers.
Jaguars (0-1)
Jaguars were outgained 400-267 in LW’s 20-17 loss at Miami.
LY, Jaguars were 4-2 ATS as home favorite (5-14 from 2016-22).
QB Lawrence is 21-32 as an NFL starter.
Jaguars are 3-9 ATS in last 12 home openers (3-3 ATS in last six).
Jacksonville’s last three home openers stayed under the total.
Jaguars are 19-18 SU under Pederson (15-50 previous four years)
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Browns won last two meetings, 31-27/27-25.
Browns are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS in last three visits to Jacksonville.
Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
49ers (-6.5) @ Vikings
49ers (1-0)
Short week/long travel for 49ers after their Monday nite game.
49ers outgained Jets 401-266 in Monday’s 32-19 win.
Since 2020, San Francisco is 15-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2019, 49ers are 27-22-1 ATS coming off a win.
QB Purdy is 22-5 as an NFL starter.
Since 2008, 49ers are 11-7 ATS in road openers.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven road openers.
Vikings (1-0)
Minnesota outgained Giants 312-220 in LW’s 28-6 road win.
Last week was first time in 8 years that Vikings won their road opener.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in last nine home openers.
QB Darnold is 22-35 as an NFL starter.
Vikings 5-1-1 ATS LY in games coming off a win.
Minnesota is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Under is 9-1 in their last ten home openers.
Home team won last seven series games.
49ers are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in last four visits to Minnesota.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Chargers (-6.5) @ Panthers
Chargers (1-0)
Chargers ran for 176 yards in LW’s 22-10 home win over Las Vegas.
Last two years, Bolts were 5-3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2019, Bolts are 13-16-5 ATS coming off a win.
QB Herbert is 31-33 as an NFL starter.
Last 8 years, Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their road opener.
Since 2020, Chargers are 9-7-3 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Harbaugh was 49-22-1 as 49ers’ coach (2011-14).
Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.
Panthers (0-1)
LW, Panthers gained only 193 TY in ugly 47-10 loss in New Orleans
Saints outrushed Carolina, 180-58.
Last three games, Carolina was outscored by a combined 82-10.
Since 2019, Carolina is 10-13-2 ATS as home underdog.
2nd year QB Young is 2-15 as an NFL starter.
Last 5 years, Carolina is 1-3-1ATS in home openers.
Since 1996, under is 18-9-1 in Panthers’ home openers.
Last three years, Carolina is 5-10 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Carolina won/covered last four series games.
Chargers are 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS in last three visits to Charlotte.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Raiders @ Ravens (-9)
Raiders (0-1)
Raiders were minus-3 in turnovers, gained only 296 yards in LW’s 22-10 loss.
Raiders are 13-18-1 ATS in game following their last 32 losses.
QB Minshew is 15-23 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.
Since 2019, Las Vegas is 19-12 ATS as a road underdog.
Raiders are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 road openers.
Since start of 2020, Raiders are minus-32 in turnovers in 68 games.
Under is 17-9 in their last 26 road games, 5-2 in last seven road openers.
Ravens (1-0)
Ravens outgained KC 452-353 but lost opener 27-20 at Arrowhead.
QB Jackson threw for 273 yards, ran for 185 more,
Derrick Henry ran ball only 13 times, for 46 yards,
Since 2021, Ravens are 9-13 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Jackson is 60-24 as an NFL starter.
Since 2005, Ravens are 12-6 ATS in their home opener.
Last two years, under is 11-6 in Baltimore’s home games.
Ravens have a first-time defensive coordinator.
Last four years, Baltimore is 12-10 ATS coming off a loss.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Teams haven’t met since 2021.
Raiders are 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to Baltimore.
Last six series games went over the total.
Seahawks (-3.5) @ Patriots
Seahawks (1-0)
Seattle outgained Denver 304-231 in LW’s 26-20 home win.
Last four years, Seahawks are 5-8-1 ATS as road favorites.
Since 2019, Seattle is 4-1 SU/ATS in road openers.
Seattle is 11-7-2 ATS last 20 games vs AFC opponents.
QB Smith is 31-37 as an NFL starter, 19-18 with Seattle.
Under is 10-3 in their last 13 road openers.
Seahawks are 11-19-2 in last 32 games coming off a win.
Under is 14-9-1 in their last 24 road games.
Patriots (1-0)
Patriots held Bengals to 224 TY in LW’s 16-10 upset win.
New England ran ball for 170 yards, threw for only 120
Last two years, New England is 1-8 ATS as a home underdog.
Last three years, Patriots are 0-3 SU/ATS in home openers.
New England is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC teams.
Patriots QB Brissett is 19-30 as an NFL starter.
Seattle won/covered last three series games.
Seahawks split their last two visits to Foxboro.
Last five series games went over the total.
Colts (-3) @ Packers
Colts (0-1)
LW, Colts gave up 213 rushing yards in their 29-27 home loss.
Indy completed only 9-19 passes, averaged 20+ yards/reception.
Last nine years, Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in road openers.
Last four years, Colts are 8-4 ATS as road favorites.
Colts are 22-12-1 ATS in last 35 games on natural grass
Indy is 17-12-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Richardson is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
Colts are one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Packers (0-1)
QB Love isn’t expected to play; Malik Willis would replace him.
Willis was 1-2 as a starter for Tennessee in 2022.
Green Bay is 19-9 ATS in last 28 games as an underdog.
Last nine years, Packers are 7-2 ATS in home openers.
Since 2018, Green Bay is 15-12-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
LW, Packers outgained Eagles 414-410 in 34-29 loss.
QB Willis is 1-2 as an NFL starter; Love is 10-11.
Under is 5-2 in Green Bay’s last seven home openers.
Former Boston College HC Hafley is Green Bay’s new DC.
Colts won last three series games, by 3-5-3 points.
Teams split their last two meetings at Lambeau Field.
Last five series games went over the total.
Jets (-4.5) @ Titans
Jets (0-1)
Short week, more travel for Jets after their Monday night loss.
Jets were outgained 401-266 in Monday night’s loss.
49ers outrushed them 180-68 Monday night.
Since 2017, Jets are 1-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2018, Jets are 26-38 ATS coming off a loss.
Rodgers is 159-86-1 as an NFL starter.
Under is 18-13 in their last 31 road games.
Titans (0-1)
Titans lost 24-17 in Chicago LW, without giving up an offensive TD.
Bears blocked a punt for a TD, also had a pick-6.
Tennessee is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.
Since 2016, Titans are 33-22-3 ATS coming off a loss.
Tennessee is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home openers.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
QB Levis is 3-7 as an NFL starter.
Titans have an all-new coaching staff.
Jets won three of last four games with Tennessee.
Gang Green is 2-4 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Nashville.
Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Giants @ Commanders (-1.5)
Giants (0-1)
Giants were outgained 312-240 in LW’s 28-6 home loss.
Last four years, Giants are 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in road openers.
Those four games were decided by total of 10 points.
Since 2018, Giants are 28-16 ATS as road underdogs.
Under Daboll, Giants are 12-5 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Daboll, Giants are 5-1 ATS in NFC East road games.
QB Jones is 23-38-1 as an NFL starter.
Under Daboll, Giants are 5-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
New defensive coordinator for Big Blue this season.
Commanders (0-1)
Bucs outgained Washington 392-299 in LW’s 37-20 Tampa Bay win.
Commanders were 2-8 on third down, Bucs were 9-13.
Rookie QB Daniels was 17-24/184 passing in his first NFL start.
Washington is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
Commanders are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine NFC East home games.
Last eight years, Washington is 3-5 SU/2-6 ATS in home openers.
Washington is 14-9-2 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 8-5 in their last 13 home openers.
Commanders are 11-18-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
Giants are 7-2-1 SU in last ten series games.
Big Blue covered its last six visits here.
Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
Rams @ Cardinals (-1.5)
Rams (0-1)
Rams have pretty severe injury problems on offensive line.
Rams threw for 304 yards LY, but lost 26-20 in OT at Detroit.
Under McVay, Rams are 23-16-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Last two years, LA is 4-7-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Under is 10-6-1 in Rams’ last 17 road games.
LA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine NFC West road games.
WR Kupp caught 14 passes for 110 yards and a TD last week.
QB Stafford is 28-19 as Rams’ QB (was 74-93-1 with Detroit).
Cardinals (0-1)
Arizona lost 34-28 at Buffalo LW, after leading 17-3.
Cardinals are 5-14-1 ATS in last 20 games as home favorites.
Last five years, Arizona is 4-11 ATS in NFC West home games.
Cardinals are 9-8 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Murray is 28-38-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 3-5 ATS in last eight home openers.
Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.
Arizona is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Rams won three in row, 14 of last 16 series games.
Rams are 9-0 ATS in last nine visits to Arizona.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Bengals @ Chiefs (-5.5)
Bengals (0-1)
Bengals were held to 224 yards in LW’s 16-10 home loss.
Bengals were 4-11 on 3rd down, averaged 4.8 yards/pass attempt.
Bengals lost their last five road openers (0-3 ATS last three).
Cincinnati is 6-3-1 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
QB Burrow is 34-25-1 as an NFL starter.
Last four years, Cincinnati is 17-10-1 ATS coming off a loss.
WR Chase, who is in a contract dispute, caught six balls for 62 yards LW
Bengals ran only 48 plays in Sunday’s loss; New England ran 64.
Chiefs (1-0)
Chiefs outgained Ravens 452-353 in LW’s 27-20 home win,
Kansas City played on Thursday LW, had extra time to prep for this.
Chiefs are 19-28-1 in last 48 games coming off a win.
Last 4+ years, under is 21-12-1 in games at Arrowhead.
Last 4+ years, KC is 15-17 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Mahomes is 90-25 as an NFL starter.
WR Rice caught seven passes for 103 yards LW.
In Week 1, individual team totals were 16-13-1 to the over.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Bengals are 3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Arrowhead.
Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.
Steelers (-3) @ Broncos
Steelers (1-0)
Steelers held Atlanta to 226 yards in LW’s 18-10 road win.
Pittsburgh was +3 in turnovers LW, converted 8-17 third down plays.
Since 2020, Pittsburgh is 4-3 as a road favorite.
Steelers are 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Fields is 11-28 as an NFL starter (1-0 with Steelers).
Pittsburgh is 9-6-1 in its last 16 games coming off a win.
Under is 8-2 in their last ten road games.
Russell Wilson was Denver’s QB the last two years; he won’t play here, but he is on the Steelers’ bench.
Broncos (0-1)
Rookie QB Nix averaged 3.3 yards/pass attempt in his first NFL start.
Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.
In his career, Payton is 51-34-2 ATS as an underdog.
Denver was held to 231 TY LW; they were 5-18 on third down.
Since 2000, Denver is 20-4 SU/15-9 ATS in home openers.
Denver’s last five home openers stayed under the total.
Broncos are 9-17-1 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Broncos are 13-15-1 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
Home team won last six series games.
Steelers are 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to Denver.
Over is 8-2 in last ten meetings.
Bears @ Texans (-6.5)
Bears (1-0)
Bears won 24-17 LW, despite not scoring an offensive TD.
Chicago was outgained 244-148; blocked punt for TD, had a pick-6.
Bears are 9-15-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
Chicago is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Bears are 4-2 SU/3-3 ATS in last six road openers.
Under is 6-1 in their last seven road openers.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 5-5-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Bears have a 3rd-year HC but have two new coordinators TY.
Texans (1-0)
Texans ran for 213 yards, held off Colts 29-27 at Indy last week.
Houston was 10-7 LY, its first winning year since 2019.
Since 2019, Texans are 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Houston is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Last 7 years, Texans are 2-5 ATS in home openers.
Over is 3-1 in last four home openers.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 11-7 as an NFL starter.
Houston is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Home team won four of last five series games.
Bears lost 23-14/31-24 in their two visits to Houston.
Under is 4-2 in series games.
Monday’s game
Falcons @ Eagles (-6.5)
Falcons (0-1)
Atlanta was held to 226 yards in LW’s 18-10 home loss.
Falcons were 2-9 on third down, Pittsburgh 8-17.
Falcons are 0-6 SU/2-4 ATS in last six road openers.
Three of their last four road openers went over total.
Falcons are 17-22 ATS in last 39 games as a road underdog.
New QB Cousins is 77-71-2 as an NFL starter.
Raheem Morris is 21-39 as an NFL head coach.
Under is 10-7 in Atlanta’s last 17 road games.
Eagles (1-0)
Eagles beat Green Bay 34-29 in Brazil LW; they gave up 414 TY.
Since 2018, Eagles are 29-39-1 ATS as a favorite.
Philly is 11-7-1 in last 19 games as a home favorite.
RB Barkley had 132 TY, scored 3 TD’s in his first game with Philly.
Eagles have two new coordinators; Kellen Moore is new OC.
QB Hurts is 37-20 as an NFL starter.
Since 2018, Eagles are 24-28-2 ATS coming off a win.
Eagles turned ball over 3 times LW; they were minus-10 in TO’s LY.
Eagles won four of last five series games.
Falcons are 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Philadelphia.
Last six series games stayed under the total.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 2
Sunday’s games
Saints @ Cowboys (-6.5)
Saints (1-0)
Last week, Saints outgained Carolina 379-193 in a 47-10 home win.
Saints were 7-13 on third down, +2 in turnovers.
Since 2018, New Orleans is 14-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Carr is 73-88 as an NFL starter.
Since 2010, Saints are 5-9 SU/2-12 ATS in road openers.
Last 3 years, New Orleans is 7-14-2 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road games.
Cowboys (1-0)
LW, Dallas outgained Browns 265-230 in 33-17 road win.
Zimmer’s defense held Cleveland to 2.7 yards/pass attempt.
Last three years, Cowboys are 16-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Dallas was 20-14 ATS coming off a win.
QB Prescott is 76-46 as an NFL starter.
Dallas is 5-2 ATS in last seven home openers.
Over is 31-17 in last 48 Dallas home games.
Teams split last six series games.
Saints are 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS in last four visits to Dallas.
Last four meetings stayed under the total.
Buccaneers @ Lions (-7.5)
Buccaneers (1-0)
Mayfield averaged 9.0 yards/pass attempt in LW’s 37-20 win vs Washington
Bucs were 9-13 on third down, Commanders 2-8.
Under Bowles, Tampa Bay is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Last six years, Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU/ATS in road openers.
QB Mayfield is 43-48 as an NFL starter, 11-9 with Buccaneers.
Over is 10-6 in their last 16 road openers.
Last three years, under is 16-9 in Tampa Bay road games.
Lions (1-0)
LW, Lions tied game late, won home opener 26-20 in overtime.
Under Campbell, Lions are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, Detroit is 13-6 ATS coming off a win.
Lions were 6-13 on 3rd down LW, but allowed 304 PY.
Goff is 27-24-1 as Detroit’s QB (was 44-30 with Rams)
Over is 12-6 in their last 18 home games.
Detroit (-6) beat Tampa Bay 31-23 in LY’s playoffs.
Lions won six of last nine series games.
Buccaneers are 4-2 SU/ATS in last six visits to Detroit.
Browns @ Jaguars (-3)
Browns (0-1)
Cleveland gained only 230 TY in LW’s 33-17 home loss to Dallas.
Browns were 2-15 on 3rd down vs Dallas, 3-5 on 4th down.
Last three years, Cleveland is 6-10-1 ATS as road underdog.
QB Watson is 37-32 as an NFL starter, 8-5 with Browns.
Cleveland is 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 2-4 SU/4-2 ATS in its last six road openers.
Over is 3-0 in Browns’ last three road openers.
Jaguars (0-1)
Jaguars were outgained 400-267 in LW’s 20-17 loss at Miami.
LY, Jaguars were 4-2 ATS as home favorite (5-14 from 2016-22).
QB Lawrence is 21-32 as an NFL starter.
Jaguars are 3-9 ATS in last 12 home openers (3-3 ATS in last six).
Jacksonville’s last three home openers stayed under the total.
Jaguars are 19-18 SU under Pederson (15-50 previous four years)
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Browns won last two meetings, 31-27/27-25.
Browns are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS in last three visits to Jacksonville.
Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
49ers (-6.5) @ Vikings
49ers (1-0)
Short week/long travel for 49ers after their Monday nite game.
49ers outgained Jets 401-266 in Monday’s 32-19 win.
Since 2020, San Francisco is 15-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2019, 49ers are 27-22-1 ATS coming off a win.
QB Purdy is 22-5 as an NFL starter.
Since 2008, 49ers are 11-7 ATS in road openers.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven road openers.
Vikings (1-0)
Minnesota outgained Giants 312-220 in LW’s 28-6 road win.
Last week was first time in 8 years that Vikings won their road opener.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in last nine home openers.
QB Darnold is 22-35 as an NFL starter.
Vikings 5-1-1 ATS LY in games coming off a win.
Minnesota is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Under is 9-1 in their last ten home openers.
Home team won last seven series games.
49ers are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in last four visits to Minnesota.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Chargers (-6.5) @ Panthers
Chargers (1-0)
Chargers ran for 176 yards in LW’s 22-10 home win over Las Vegas.
Last two years, Bolts were 5-3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2019, Bolts are 13-16-5 ATS coming off a win.
QB Herbert is 31-33 as an NFL starter.
Last 8 years, Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their road opener.
Since 2020, Chargers are 9-7-3 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Harbaugh was 49-22-1 as 49ers’ coach (2011-14).
Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.
Panthers (0-1)
LW, Panthers gained only 193 TY in ugly 47-10 loss in New Orleans
Saints outrushed Carolina, 180-58.
Last three games, Carolina was outscored by a combined 82-10.
Since 2019, Carolina is 10-13-2 ATS as home underdog.
2nd year QB Young is 2-15 as an NFL starter.
Last 5 years, Carolina is 1-3-1ATS in home openers.
Since 1996, under is 18-9-1 in Panthers’ home openers.
Last three years, Carolina is 5-10 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Carolina won/covered last four series games.
Chargers are 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS in last three visits to Charlotte.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Raiders @ Ravens (-9)
Raiders (0-1)
Raiders were minus-3 in turnovers, gained only 296 yards in LW’s 22-10 loss.
Raiders are 13-18-1 ATS in game following their last 32 losses.
QB Minshew is 15-23 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.
Since 2019, Las Vegas is 19-12 ATS as a road underdog.
Raiders are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 road openers.
Since start of 2020, Raiders are minus-32 in turnovers in 68 games.
Under is 17-9 in their last 26 road games, 5-2 in last seven road openers.
Ravens (1-0)
Ravens outgained KC 452-353 but lost opener 27-20 at Arrowhead.
QB Jackson threw for 273 yards, ran for 185 more,
Derrick Henry ran ball only 13 times, for 46 yards,
Since 2021, Ravens are 9-13 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Jackson is 60-24 as an NFL starter.
Since 2005, Ravens are 12-6 ATS in their home opener.
Last two years, under is 11-6 in Baltimore’s home games.
Ravens have a first-time defensive coordinator.
Last four years, Baltimore is 12-10 ATS coming off a loss.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Teams haven’t met since 2021.
Raiders are 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to Baltimore.
Last six series games went over the total.
Seahawks (-3.5) @ Patriots
Seahawks (1-0)
Seattle outgained Denver 304-231 in LW’s 26-20 home win.
Last four years, Seahawks are 5-8-1 ATS as road favorites.
Since 2019, Seattle is 4-1 SU/ATS in road openers.
Seattle is 11-7-2 ATS last 20 games vs AFC opponents.
QB Smith is 31-37 as an NFL starter, 19-18 with Seattle.
Under is 10-3 in their last 13 road openers.
Seahawks are 11-19-2 in last 32 games coming off a win.
Under is 14-9-1 in their last 24 road games.
Patriots (1-0)
Patriots held Bengals to 224 TY in LW’s 16-10 upset win.
New England ran ball for 170 yards, threw for only 120
Last two years, New England is 1-8 ATS as a home underdog.
Last three years, Patriots are 0-3 SU/ATS in home openers.
New England is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC teams.
Patriots QB Brissett is 19-30 as an NFL starter.
Seattle won/covered last three series games.
Seahawks split their last two visits to Foxboro.
Last five series games went over the total.
Colts (-3) @ Packers
Colts (0-1)
LW, Colts gave up 213 rushing yards in their 29-27 home loss.
Indy completed only 9-19 passes, averaged 20+ yards/reception.
Last nine years, Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in road openers.
Last four years, Colts are 8-4 ATS as road favorites.
Colts are 22-12-1 ATS in last 35 games on natural grass
Indy is 17-12-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Richardson is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
Colts are one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Packers (0-1)
QB Love isn’t expected to play; Malik Willis would replace him.
Willis was 1-2 as a starter for Tennessee in 2022.
Green Bay is 19-9 ATS in last 28 games as an underdog.
Last nine years, Packers are 7-2 ATS in home openers.
Since 2018, Green Bay is 15-12-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
LW, Packers outgained Eagles 414-410 in 34-29 loss.
QB Willis is 1-2 as an NFL starter; Love is 10-11.
Under is 5-2 in Green Bay’s last seven home openers.
Former Boston College HC Hafley is Green Bay’s new DC.
Colts won last three series games, by 3-5-3 points.
Teams split their last two meetings at Lambeau Field.
Last five series games went over the total.
Jets (-4.5) @ Titans
Jets (0-1)
Short week, more travel for Jets after their Monday night loss.
Jets were outgained 401-266 in Monday night’s loss.
49ers outrushed them 180-68 Monday night.
Since 2017, Jets are 1-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2018, Jets are 26-38 ATS coming off a loss.
Rodgers is 159-86-1 as an NFL starter.
Under is 18-13 in their last 31 road games.
Titans (0-1)
Titans lost 24-17 in Chicago LW, without giving up an offensive TD.
Bears blocked a punt for a TD, also had a pick-6.
Tennessee is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.
Since 2016, Titans are 33-22-3 ATS coming off a loss.
Tennessee is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home openers.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
QB Levis is 3-7 as an NFL starter.
Titans have an all-new coaching staff.
Jets won three of last four games with Tennessee.
Gang Green is 2-4 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Nashville.
Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Giants @ Commanders (-1.5)
Giants (0-1)
Giants were outgained 312-240 in LW’s 28-6 home loss.
Last four years, Giants are 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in road openers.
Those four games were decided by total of 10 points.
Since 2018, Giants are 28-16 ATS as road underdogs.
Under Daboll, Giants are 12-5 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Daboll, Giants are 5-1 ATS in NFC East road games.
QB Jones is 23-38-1 as an NFL starter.
Under Daboll, Giants are 5-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
New defensive coordinator for Big Blue this season.
Commanders (0-1)
Bucs outgained Washington 392-299 in LW’s 37-20 Tampa Bay win.
Commanders were 2-8 on third down, Bucs were 9-13.
Rookie QB Daniels was 17-24/184 passing in his first NFL start.
Washington is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
Commanders are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine NFC East home games.
Last eight years, Washington is 3-5 SU/2-6 ATS in home openers.
Washington is 14-9-2 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 8-5 in their last 13 home openers.
Commanders are 11-18-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
Giants are 7-2-1 SU in last ten series games.
Big Blue covered its last six visits here.
Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
Rams @ Cardinals (-1.5)
Rams (0-1)
Rams have pretty severe injury problems on offensive line.
Rams threw for 304 yards LY, but lost 26-20 in OT at Detroit.
Under McVay, Rams are 23-16-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Last two years, LA is 4-7-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Under is 10-6-1 in Rams’ last 17 road games.
LA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine NFC West road games.
WR Kupp caught 14 passes for 110 yards and a TD last week.
QB Stafford is 28-19 as Rams’ QB (was 74-93-1 with Detroit).
Cardinals (0-1)
Arizona lost 34-28 at Buffalo LW, after leading 17-3.
Cardinals are 5-14-1 ATS in last 20 games as home favorites.
Last five years, Arizona is 4-11 ATS in NFC West home games.
Cardinals are 9-8 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Murray is 28-38-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 3-5 ATS in last eight home openers.
Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.
Arizona is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Rams won three in row, 14 of last 16 series games.
Rams are 9-0 ATS in last nine visits to Arizona.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Bengals @ Chiefs (-5.5)
Bengals (0-1)
Bengals were held to 224 yards in LW’s 16-10 home loss.
Bengals were 4-11 on 3rd down, averaged 4.8 yards/pass attempt.
Bengals lost their last five road openers (0-3 ATS last three).
Cincinnati is 6-3-1 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
QB Burrow is 34-25-1 as an NFL starter.
Last four years, Cincinnati is 17-10-1 ATS coming off a loss.
WR Chase, who is in a contract dispute, caught six balls for 62 yards LW
Bengals ran only 48 plays in Sunday’s loss; New England ran 64.
Chiefs (1-0)
Chiefs outgained Ravens 452-353 in LW’s 27-20 home win,
Kansas City played on Thursday LW, had extra time to prep for this.
Chiefs are 19-28-1 in last 48 games coming off a win.
Last 4+ years, under is 21-12-1 in games at Arrowhead.
Last 4+ years, KC is 15-17 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Mahomes is 90-25 as an NFL starter.
WR Rice caught seven passes for 103 yards LW.
In Week 1, individual team totals were 16-13-1 to the over.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Bengals are 3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Arrowhead.
Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.
Steelers (-3) @ Broncos
Steelers (1-0)
Steelers held Atlanta to 226 yards in LW’s 18-10 road win.
Pittsburgh was +3 in turnovers LW, converted 8-17 third down plays.
Since 2020, Pittsburgh is 4-3 as a road favorite.
Steelers are 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Fields is 11-28 as an NFL starter (1-0 with Steelers).
Pittsburgh is 9-6-1 in its last 16 games coming off a win.
Under is 8-2 in their last ten road games.
Russell Wilson was Denver’s QB the last two years; he won’t play here, but he is on the Steelers’ bench.
Broncos (0-1)
Rookie QB Nix averaged 3.3 yards/pass attempt in his first NFL start.
Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.
In his career, Payton is 51-34-2 ATS as an underdog.
Denver was held to 231 TY LW; they were 5-18 on third down.
Since 2000, Denver is 20-4 SU/15-9 ATS in home openers.
Denver’s last five home openers stayed under the total.
Broncos are 9-17-1 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Broncos are 13-15-1 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
Home team won last six series games.
Steelers are 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to Denver.
Over is 8-2 in last ten meetings.
Bears @ Texans (-6.5)
Bears (1-0)
Bears won 24-17 LW, despite not scoring an offensive TD.
Chicago was outgained 244-148; blocked punt for TD, had a pick-6.
Bears are 9-15-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
Chicago is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Bears are 4-2 SU/3-3 ATS in last six road openers.
Under is 6-1 in their last seven road openers.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 5-5-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Bears have a 3rd-year HC but have two new coordinators TY.
Texans (1-0)
Texans ran for 213 yards, held off Colts 29-27 at Indy last week.
Houston was 10-7 LY, its first winning year since 2019.
Since 2019, Texans are 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Houston is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Last 7 years, Texans are 2-5 ATS in home openers.
Over is 3-1 in last four home openers.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 11-7 as an NFL starter.
Houston is one of 7 teams with same HC, coordinators as LY.
Home team won four of last five series games.
Bears lost 23-14/31-24 in their two visits to Houston.
Under is 4-2 in series games.
Monday’s game
Falcons @ Eagles (-6.5)
Falcons (0-1)
Atlanta was held to 226 yards in LW’s 18-10 home loss.
Falcons were 2-9 on third down, Pittsburgh 8-17.
Falcons are 0-6 SU/2-4 ATS in last six road openers.
Three of their last four road openers went over total.
Falcons are 17-22 ATS in last 39 games as a road underdog.
New QB Cousins is 77-71-2 as an NFL starter.
Raheem Morris is 21-39 as an NFL head coach.
Under is 10-7 in Atlanta’s last 17 road games.
Eagles (1-0)
Eagles beat Green Bay 34-29 in Brazil LW; they gave up 414 TY.
Since 2018, Eagles are 29-39-1 ATS as a favorite.
Philly is 11-7-1 in last 19 games as a home favorite.
RB Barkley had 132 TY, scored 3 TD’s in his first game with Philly.
Eagles have two new coordinators; Kellen Moore is new OC.
QB Hurts is 37-20 as an NFL starter.
Since 2018, Eagles are 24-28-2 ATS coming off a win.
Eagles turned ball over 3 times LW; they were minus-10 in TO’s LY.
Eagles won four of last five series games.
Falcons are 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Philadelphia.
Last six series games stayed under the total.
TNF trends for your consideration:
>In the last 64 TNF games, road teams have been on a roll, 31-33 SU and 38-24-2 ATS (61.3%).
>In Weeks 1-8, TNF home teams are 21-18 SU but 11-26-2 ATS (29.7%).
>In division matchups, TNF home teams have gone 15-14 SU but 10-19 ATS (34.5%) since the start of the 2019 season.
>In the last 64 TNF games, road teams have been on a roll, 31-33 SU and 38-24-2 ATS (61.3%).
>In Weeks 1-8, TNF home teams are 21-18 SU but 11-26-2 ATS (29.7%).
>In division matchups, TNF home teams have gone 15-14 SU but 10-19 ATS (34.5%) since the start of the 2019 season.
NFL BEST BETS SEPTEMBER !
09/12/2024...............................1 - 1 - 0..............................50.00%..............................- 0.50
09/09/2024...............................0 - 2 - 0..............................00.00%..............................- 11.00
09/08/2024...............................5 - 11 - 0...........................31.25%...............................- 41.00
09/06/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00
09/05/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00
TOTALS........................................6 - 18 - 0............................25.00%.............................- 74.50
09/12/2024...............................1 - 1 - 0..............................50.00%..............................- 0.50
09/09/2024...............................0 - 2 - 0..............................00.00%..............................- 11.00
09/08/2024...............................5 - 11 - 0...........................31.25%...............................- 41.00
09/06/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00
09/05/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00
TOTALS........................................6 - 18 - 0............................25.00%.............................- 74.50
