Cnotes NL 2024-2025 Schedule, Best Bets, Opinons, News !

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s quiz
Who threw the first no-hitter in Arizona Diamondbacks’ history?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie Someone to Watch Over Me, Tom Berenger is a New York City cop assigned to protect a woman who witnessed a murder. Mimi Rogers played the witness.

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jameis Winston has the most passing yards.

******************************************

Thursday’s Den: NFL notes, thoughts with the season starting tonite…….​

How last 20 defending Super Bowl champs did in Week 1 the next season; 15 of the last 16 opened at home:
2003: Buccaneers (+3) W17-0 @ Philadelphia
2004: Patriots (-3) W27-24 vs Indianapolis
2005: Patriots (-7.5) W30-20 vs Oakland
2006: Steelers (-1) W28-17 vs Miami
2007: Colts (-5.5) W41-10 vs New Orleans
2008: Giants (-4.5) W16-7 vs Washington
2009: Steelers (-6.5) W13-10 vs Tennessee
2010: Saints (-5) W14-9 vs Minnesota
2011: Packers (-5) W42-34 vs New Orleans
2012: Giants (-5) L17-24 vs Dallas
2013: Ravens (+7.5) L27-49 @ Denver
2014: Seahawks (-5.5) W36-16 vs Green Bay
2015: Patriots (-7) W28-21 vs Pittsburgh
2016: Broncos (+3) W21-20 vs Carolina
2017: Patriots (-8) L27-42 vs Kansas City
2018: Eagles (-1) W18-12 vs Atlanta
2019: Patriots (-5.5) W33-3 vs Pittsburgh
2020: Chiefs (-9) W34-20 vs Houston
2021: Buccaneers (-8) W31-29 vs Dallas
2022: Rams (+2.5) L10-31 vs Buffalo
2023: Chiefs (-4.5) L20-21 vs Detroit
(11-7-3 ATS, 0-3 ATS last three years)

— 17 of the 32 offensive coordinators are in new jobs this season; makes it difficult to handicap Week 1, not much idea what to expect.

— Steelers brought in Russell Wilson AND Justin Fields this year, as they totally re-made their QB room. Wilson is 124-79-1 with a Super Bowl ring, but he was 17-27 the last three years and he will be 36 years old in November.
Fields is 10-28 as an NFL starter, heading towards suspect more than prospect. Will they use him in goal line/short yardage situations?

— Pittsburgh OC Arthur Smith was the Falcons’ head coach the last three years, going 7-10 all three seasons, so they fired him; Steelers open up in Atlanta Sunday.
Think that game is a little personal for Smith?

— Deshaun Watson has already gone thru two years of his guaranteed, five-year $46M/year contract, but he’s only played in 12 of 34 games for the Browns so far. Cleveland went 11-6 last year, with four different QB’s earning a win- that isn’t sustainable- they need Watson to play like a QB who deserves $46M a year.

— Eagles started 10-1 last year, then lost six of their last seven games, then changed both of their coordinators— it came out that QB Jalen Hurts and coach Nick Sirianni aren’t exactly the best of buddies, which puts the focus on new OC Kellen Moore, who spent eight of the last nine years with division rival Dallas.
This is a franchise that let Andy Reid/Doug Peterson walk; is Sirianni on thin ice?

— Aaron Donald retired; when a team loses one of the best defensive players ever, it puts their defense in question, especially with a new defensive coordinator (Chris Shula).

— Famous birthdays, September 5th:
William Devane, 85
Billy Kilmer, 85
Michael Keaton, 73
Willie Gault, 64
Dennis Scott, 56
Austin Corbett, 29
Jarren Duran, 28
Steven Kwan, 27
Mac Jones, 26

— Jets’ QB Aaron Rodgers tore his achilles on the 4th play last season; his health is obviously a big key as the Jets try to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Jets have five prime-time games and a Europe game in their first nine contests; someone in the league office thinks Gang Green is a contender.

— Chargers QB Justin Herbert battled a plantar fascia injury all summer; he was in a walking boot for two weeks. Chargers recently traded for Taylor Heinicke to back up Herbert; Heinicke is 13-16-1 as an NFL starter.

— Last five years, Buffalo Bills are 58-24 in regular season, only 5-5 in playoff games; Bills have problems with the salary cap these days, the way a lot of contending teams do, so their roster may be a little thinner this season than it has been.

— It is difficult for me to process that Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll are no longer NFL coaches; did they suddenly become incompetent? Hopefully Carroll will surface on TV somewhere; with his enthusiasm, he’d be a great teacher on TV.
Belichick seems like he is kind of boring; hopefully I’ll be wrong about that, but we’ll see.

— Should rookie QB’s start right away? Patrick Mahomes didn’t start until the last game of his rookie year; watching for a while can be a help.
Bears/Commanders are going with rookie QB’s right away; we’ll see how that works out.

— How last 20 Super Bowl losers did in Week 1 the following season:
2003: Raiders (+3) L20-25 @ Tennessee
2004: Panthers (-3) L14-24 vs Green Bay
2005: Eagles (-1) L10-14 @ Atlanta
2006: Seahawks (-6) W9-6 @ Detroit
2007: Bears (+7) L3-19 @ San Diego
2008: Patriots (-16) W17-10 vs Kansas City
2009: Cardinals (-5) L16-20 vs San Francisco
2010: Colts (-1.5) L24-34 @ Houston
2011: Steelers (+1) L7-35 @ Baltimore
2012: Patriots (-5) W34-13 @ Tennessee
2013: 49ers (-5) W34-28 vs Green Bay
2014: Broncos (-7.5) W31-24 vs Indianapolis
2015: Seahawks (-3.5) L31-34 OT @ Rams
2016: Panthers (-3) L20-21 @ Denver
2017: Falcons (-6.5) W23-17 @ Chicago
2018: Patriots (-6.5) W27-20 vs Houston
2019: Rams (-1.5) W30-27 @ Carolina
2020: 49ers (-7) L20-24 vs Arizona
2021: Chiefs (-5.5) W33-29 vs Cleveland
2022: Bengals (-7) L20-23 OT vs Pittsburgh
2023: Eagles (-3.5) W25-20 @ Philadelphia
(5-16 ATS, 3-3 ATS last six years)

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Thursday, September 5

 

[Udog]

I have been faithfully following your thread for years. Thank you for all your efforts to keep this going. Would you mind if I added more to your thread ? Thanks again and best of luck

Please add anything you think will help, ozzy. Thanks!

 

[vinnyvegas]

Great job as usual boys. Thx for the efforts and posts.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
BAL at KC	08:20 PM	BAL +3.0 U 46.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS SEPTEMBER !

09/05/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00

TOTALS........................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

— Chiefs 27, Ravens 20
Ravens were on 10-yard line at end of game, failed to score.
QB Jackson threw for 273 yards, ran for 122 more.
Ravens’ first drive: 11 plays, 70 yards. TD drive took 6:46
Baltimore had only one other TD on their last nine drives.


KC won despite being minus-2 in turnovers, and outgained, 452-353
Mahomes threw for 291 yards; WR Rice caught seven passes for 103 yards; Last 8 years, Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in Week 1.
Last 22 years, defending Super Bowl champ is 12-7-3 ATS in Week 1 the next year.


— Chiefs have now won six of their last seven games against Baltimore.


— With the loss Thursday, Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson drops to 13-3 ATS as an NFL underdog.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Friday, September 6

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 6​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
GB at PHI	08:15 PM	GB +1.5 U 48.0	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS SEPTEMBER !

09/06/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00
09/05/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00

TOTALS........................................0 - 4...................................00.00%...............................- 22.00

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

— Eagles 34, Packers 29
Eagles turned ball over on their first two drives.
Green Bay managed only two FG’s on the ensuing drives.
Philly scored 24 points on their next four drives.
Saquon Barkley had 132 total yards, scored three TD’s.

Green Bay scored on five of first six drives; they led 19-17 at halftime.
Jordan Reed caught four passes for 138 yards.
Teams combined to convert only 7-25 third down plays.
Very bad news for Green Bay; QB Love sprained his ankle late in game, could be out a while.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
— Astros 11, Arizona 5- Houston is 7-0 when Kikuchi starts.
— Mets 4, Reds 0- Jose Quintana got his 100th MLB win.
— Rays 7, Orioles 1- Loss knocks Baltimore out of AL East lead.
— Marlins 9, Phillies 5- Loss snaps Philly’s 6-game win streak.
— Royals 4, Twins 2- Bobby Witt Jr had the game-winning hit.
— Toronto 9, Braves 5- Spencer Horwitz was 4-5 with two HR’s.

Quote of the Day
“We did enough things wrong to deserve to lose. We were fortunate to find a way to win. Overall, our body of work on offense not very good today. I’m really proud of the guys that stepped up when they had an opportunity.”
Oklahoma coach Brent Venables, after his 16-12 win Saturday

Sunday’s quiz
When Bryce Harper broke into the major leagues, what team was he on?

Saturday’s quiz
Ron Jaworski was quarterback for the Eagles, the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

Friday’s quiz
In the movie Invincible, Philadelphia beat the Giants in Week 2 of the 1976 season; Craig Morton played QB for the Giants in that game.

*******************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday…….​

— Oklahoma State 39, Arkansas 31 OT
Arkansas led this game 21-7 at halftime.
Razorbacks tied game with a 45-yard FG at the gun in regulation.
Arkansas was 11-19 on 3rd down, Cowboys 5-16

— Texas 31, Michigan 12
Longhorns won easily; they led 24-3 at halftime.
Texas was 10-16 on third down, Michigan 3-12
Michigan’s new coach supposedly doesn’t have a contract yet; my advice would be to go get one signed as quickly as possible, before they change their mind.

— Northern Illinois 16, Notre Dame 14
NIU kicked a 35-yard FG with 0:31 left to post a big upset.
Huskies outgained Notre Dame, 388-286.
NIU ran ball for 190 yards, was +2 in turnovers.

— Iowa State 20, Iowa 19
Iowa led this game 13-0 at halftime.
Iowa State threw a 75-yard TD pass, had 4th quarter FG’s of 46-54 yards.
Just 2nd win for Cyclones in their last nine meetings with Iowa.

— Virginia 31, Wake Forest 30
Deacons led 17-3 early in second quarter.
Cavaliers outscored Wake 14-0 in fourth quarter.
Virginia was only 3-14 on 3rd down, but 3-3 on 4th down.

— Famous birthdays, September 8th:
Lem Barney, 79
Maurice Cheeks, 68
Heather Thomas, 67
Latrell Sprewell, 54
Amani Toomer, 50
Gerrit Cole, 34
Matt Barkley, 34
Lars Nootbaar, 27
Leody Taveras, 26
September 8th was my grandfather’s birthday; happy birthday, Pop!!!

— Penn State 34, Bowling Green 27
MAC’s Falcons led 24-20 at halftime.
Bowling Green was 7-14 on 3rd down, Penn State 2-9
Nittany Lions ran for 234 yards (6.3 yards/carry).

— Oklahoma 16, Houston 12
Cougars outgained Oklahoma, 318-249
Houston lost 27-7 at home to UNLV LW; red flag for the Sooners?
Oklahoma’s punter downed 3 punts inside the Houston 10-yard line.

— Pittsburgh 28, Cincinnati 27
Panthers outscored Cincinnati 15-0 in 4th quarter.
Pitt threw 4th quarter TD passes of 38-56 yards.
Panthers kicked a 35-yard FG with 0:17 left for the win.

— Oregon 37, Boise State 34
Boise State led 20-14 at halftime.
Down 34-27, Ducks ran kickoff back 100 yards for TD with 9:59 left.
Oregon kicked a 25-yard FG at the gun.
Game was on Peacock, so I couldn’t watch it. Oy.

— Upsets of the Week:
Northern Illinois (+28) 16, Notre Dame 14
BYU (+12.5) 18, SMU 15
California (+11.5) 21, Auburn 14
UL-Monroe (+11) 32, UAB 6
Michigan State (+9) 27, Maryland 24
South Carolina (+8.5) 31, Kentucky 6
Iowa State (+8) 20, Iowa 19
Illinois (+4.5) 23, Kansas 17

Losing to a I-AA team isn’t good:
Idaho 17, Wyoming 13
St Francis PA 23, Kent State 17

— California 21, Auburn 14
Cal QB Mendoza was 19-21 passing in first half, when Cal led, 14-7.
Golden Bears converted 10-19 third down plays.
Auburn threw 4 INT’s, two in 4th quarter; Cal was +5 in turnovers.

— Kansas State 34, Tulane 27
Tulane led this game 20-10 at halftime.
K-State ran a fumble back 60 yards for game-winning TD with 8:13 left.
Tulane threw for 342 yards, averaged 11.8 yards/attempt.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Sunday, September 8

 

[ozzy44]

Fade 'Em​

49ers Look To Break Trend
Since 2000, the loser of the Super Bowl has had a tough time getting over its hangover in Week 1 of the following season. Super Bowl losers are 10-14 SU (straight up), and 5-19 ATS (against the spread).

When they are favored by over a field goal — 9-4 SU, 4-9 ATS. In 2020, the 49ers lost at home vs the Cardinals as 6.5-point favorites.

---

One Hype​

Caleb Going For History
As of now, Caleb Williams is 40-1 to win the NFL MVP this year, which would be the shortest odds entering a season for any rookie in the last 15 years to win the award ahead of Saquon Barkley, who was 66-1 in 2018.

There have been 27 No. 1 pick QBs since the merger in 1970. In their first start, they are 4-22-1 SU, 7-20 ATS. David Carr in 2002 was the last SU winner.

---

Rookie Road​

Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels Start Away
Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels will begin their NFL careers in Week 1 having to play on the road against veteran QBs.

Since the NFL merger in 1970, rookie QBs having to play on the road in Week 1 are 8-19 SU and 12-13-2 ATS, losing those games SU by an average of 4.3 PPG. The rookie QB's team averages about 18.8 PPG scored. The last win SU or ATS came from Sam Darnold back in 2018.

---

Back On Top​

Jets AFC East Favorites
The Jets are currently the favorites to win the AFC East at +160 — it would be the first time they enter a year as division favorites since the playoffs expanded in 2002.

The Browns and Commanders are the only two other teams to not be a division favorite any year in that span.

Looking specifically at their opener on Monday Night Football — Aaron Rodgers is 13-6 SU, 11-8 ATS in his career on Monday Night Football. He's won 10 straight MNF games SU as a starter. The last loss was back in 2013 vs. the Bears.

Not to mention, underdogs in Week 1 Monday Night Football games are 29-12-1 ATS since 1998.

---

Familiar Home Dogs​

Fade The Noise
The Colts are slight home underdogs vs. Texans in Week 1. It has been profitable to bet divisional underdogs in Week 1 historically.

Divisional home dogs are 22-7 ATS in Week 1 since 2010, including 9-2 ATS since 2018 and 17-4 ATS since 2012.
Divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS (71%) in Week 1 since 2014, covering the spread by 4.8 PPG (Panthers, Colts, Raiders), including 40-38-2 SU, +$2,580 on $100 bet (+32.2% ROI) since 2010.

---

Tight Spreads​

Bengals, Patriots The Outlier
If this game closes as the only one in Week 1 with a spread of seven or more points, that would be the fewest games in Week 1 with a spread of seven or more since 2010, when we had no such games.

---

Jim Joins John​

Harbaugh's In The NFL
Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL coaching game after winning the National Championship at Michigan and heading to the Chargers. In their NFL careers, both John and Jim Harbaugh have had betting success in the NFL.

NFL careers:
Jim Harbaugh: 49-22-1 SU, 42-27-3 ATS — three of four seasons .500 ATS or better
John Harbaugh: 172-109 SU, 146-127-8 ATS — 12 of 17 seasons .500 ATS or better

The Harbaugh brothers are a combined 16-4 ATS in NFL Week 1s and 53-23-1 SU coaching any NFL game on extended rest (eight days or more). Jim Harbaugh is 4-0 in season openers during his time as head coach of 49ers. The only coach who has more wins in openers without a loss or tie in NFL history is Raymond Berry (5-0).

---

The Bad List​

Panthers Defy Odds
It's pretty hard to do this. The Carolina Panthers have the worst/longest Super Bowl odds of any team entering this season at 250-1. It marks the first time since the 2005-06 San Francisco 49ers that a team "picked" No. 1 in the NFL Draft and had the worst Super Bowl odds the following season.

They've been an underdog in 20 straight games (29 of last 30) — last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT)
Lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite
Every other NFL team has had at least three covers as favorites since Sept. 2021
Not favored in any game in 2024 as of now at DraftKings Sportsbook
Last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021

---

Low, Low, Low​

Odds To Win It All
10 of the last 11 Super Bowl champions have been listed at +1200 or shorter to win it all in the preseason. This year, the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens and Lions would be 12-1 or shorter with the Bills, Bengals, Texans and Eagles just outside that zone as of now.

Not only that, only one AFC team has made the Super Bowl with preseason conference odds above +1000 since Tom Brady and the Patriots did in 2001 (+2000): 2021 Bengals at +8000 (21 of the last 22 years). The teams 10-1 or shorter to win the AFC are the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Bengals and Texans with the Jets and Dolphins on the outside looking in.

---

Public Love​

A Great 2023 Season
Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, they went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.

---

Beat Up​

Lowest Combined Win Totals
The Falcons, Panthers, Saints and Buccaneers have a combined win total of 30 — the fewest for any division by 3+ wins this year. That gap of 3+ for the lowest division is the biggest since the AFC East in 2018.

9.5

7.5

7.5

5.5

---

Favored To Win​

Division Odds Gamble
Looking specifically at the Falcons, Eagles and Texans…
25 teams have closed as odds-on below -150, only seven of those 25 teams won the division (18 didn’t).
12 teams have closed as odds-on at -120 or shorter, only four of those 12 teams won the division (eight didn’t).

In 19 of the last 21 seasons (91%), an NFL team has gone worst-to-first in its division.
Last four years: 2023 Texans +1100, 2022 Jaguars +750, 2021 Bengals +2500, 2020 Washington +2200

This year’s candidates: Patriots, Bengals, Titans, Chargers | Commanders, Bears, Panthers, Cardinals.

Over the last 20 years, only three teams have won their division with preseason odds of 20-1 or higher – and two have done it since 2020: Washington (2020) and Cincinnati (2021). The three teams at 20-1 or higher this year are: Giants, Patriots and Broncos

20-1 or Longer – Win Division Last 20 Years

• 2021 Bengals, 25-1
• 2008 Dolphins, 25-1
• 2020 Washington, 22-1

 

[ozzy44]

The trend: The Titans went Under their team total in seven of eight road games last season.

The trend: All nine of Houston’s road games went Under the first half total last season.

The trend: Josh Allen threw an interception in 14 of 17 regular season games last season.


The trend: The Patriots went Under their team total in 12 of 17 games last season.

The trend: The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

The trend: The Dolphins are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite.

The trend: The Giants have gone Under in 14 of their last 20 games.

The trend: The Chargers have gone Under in 12 of their last 15 games.

The trend: The Broncos went 13-4 ATS in the first quarter last season.

The trend: Dallas is 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games as an underdog, while Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

The trend: The Bucs went Under in seven of nine home games last season

The trend: The Lions went 10-4 to the Over in dome games last season.

The trend: The Jets are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games played in September.

The trend: These teams have hit the Under in seven straight against each other.

It’s been rock-bottom scoring in the last seven matchups between these teams, as they have seen an average combined score of just 32.1 points.

The Panthers closed out last season on a 9-2 Under tear, while the Saints have gone Under in seven straight games at home. The total for this game is 41.5, which is a mark they haven’t topped in a matchup against each other since October 25, 2020.

 

[ozzy44]

WEEK 1 SYSTEM #1: Divisional home underdogs are 18-9-2 SU & 23-6 ATS (79.3%) in Week 1 since 2009 (Win: +16.4 units, ROI.: 56.5%, Grade 75)
System Match: PLAY – INDIANAPOLIS (+3 vs HOU)

WEEK 1 SYSTEM #3: NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 52-21-5 ATS (71.2%) since 2004 (Win: +28.9 units, R.O.I.: 36.6%, Grade 72)
System Matches: PLAY ALL – ARIZONA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON

* Lamar Jackson (BAL) is 11-5 SU and 14-2 ATS (87.5%) as an underdog. The average line was +3.3, Team average PF: 25.3
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+3 at KC)

* Under total is 19-4 in LVR-LAC series at Chargers since 2001
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in LVR-LAC (o/u at 40.5)

This week’s #1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: SAN FRANCISCO -4.5 (+3.4 difference)

Under the total SNF Team Trends
Detroit 5-1-1 Under in the last seven
LA Rams 6-1 Under since 2019
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in LAR-DET (o/u at 50.5)

– Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 26-8 SU and 23-10-1 ATS (69.7%).
System Match: PLAY – CHICAGO (-4 vs. TEN)

NFL Week 1 Systems​

These systems were from an article posted just a couple of weeks back on VSiN.com, as well as the NFL Betting Guide:

Week 1 SYSTEM #1: Divisional home underdogs are 18-9-2 SU and 23-6 ATS (79.3%) in Week 1 since 2009 (Win: +16.4 units, ROI: 56.5%, Grade 75)
System Match: PLAY – INDIANAPOLIS (+3 vs. HOU)

Week 1 SYSTEM #2: Home teams priced in the range of +3 to -3 in Week 1 non-conference games have gone just 5-15 SU and 3-16-1 ATS since 2015 (Loss: -14.6 units, ROI: -76.8%, Grade 75)
System Match: FADE -CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs. DAL)
Also watch for ATLANTA vs Houston, CHICAGO vs. Tennessee

Week 1 SYSTEM #3: NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 52-21-5 ATS (71.2%) since 2004 (Win: +28.9 units, ROI: 36.6%, Grade 72)
System Matches: PLAY ALL -ARIZONA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON

Week 1 SYSTEM #4: Divisional road underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on a 17-13 SU and 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) run since 2013. (Win: +12.2 units, ROI: 42.1%, Grade 70)
System Match: NONE (watch for CAROLINA (at NO) or LAS VEGAS (at LAC))

Week 1 SYSTEM #5 Laying big points is rarely a good idea in a week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 10-30-1 SU, but they are 27-13-1 ATS (67.5%) in Week 1 since 2013 (Win: +12.7 units, ROI: 31.8%, Grade 65)
System Matches: PLAY ALL –NEW ENGLAND, ARIZONA
Also watch for DENVER at Seattle

Week 1 SYSTEM #6: Opening week home favorites hosting teams that were above .500 the prior season are 48-27-5 ATS (64%) since 2000 (Win: +18.3 units, ROI: 24.4%, Grade 60)
System Matches: PLAY ALL – ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, MIAMI

Week 1 SYSTEM #7: Week 1 favorites playing in a revenge spot from a loss the prior season are just 17-24 SU and 15-26 ATS (36.6%) over the last 12 seasons (Loss: -13.6 units, ROI: -33.2%, Grade 63)
System Match: FADE – LA CHARGERS (-3 vs. LVR)

 

[ozzy44]

Westgate NFL SuperContest Picks, Odds & Standings from Las Vegas​

2024 WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERCONTEST WEEK 1: 9/03/24 – 9/09/24
OFFICIAL LINES/ODDS FOR WEEK 1	WEEK 1 PICKS BY # OF TEAMS SELECTED
HOME TEAM IN CAPS CHIEFS -2.5 vs. Ravens Eagles -2.5 vs. Packers DOLPHINS -3.5 vs. Jaguars FALCONS -3 vs. Steelers Vikings -1.5 vs. NY GIANTS SAINTS -4 vs. Panthers BENGALS -8.5 vs. Patriots BEARS -4 vs. Titans BILLS -6.5 vs. Cardinals Texans -2.5 vs. COLTS CHARGERS -3 vs. Raiders BUCCANEERS -3 vs. Commanders SEAHAWKS -6 vs. Broncos BROWNS -2.5 vs. Cowboys LIONS -3.5 vs. Rams 49ers -4.5 vs. NY Jets See Who The Public Is Betting in NFL Week 1	TEN 421 TB 361 NYJ 349 DET 335 CAR 283 ATL 272 ARI 254 HOU 232 IND 202 SEA 190 JAX 184 DAL 182 LV 182 MIA 178 LAC 158 NYG 153 TOP 5 YTD RECORD 0-0-0	CLE 147 CIN 133 NE 128 LAR 125 MIN 123 DEN 116 PIT 108 BUF 106 NO 99 GB 83 SF 82 KC 82 PHI 79 CHI 78 WAS 75 BAL 65 RECORD LAST WEEK 0-0
TOP 10 SUPERCONTEST PLAYER PICKS AND STANDING
AVAILABLE WEEK 3

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
JAC at MIA	01:00 PM	JAC +3.5 O 48.5	+500 +500
ARI at BUF	01:00 PM	BUF -7.0 U 48.0	+500 +500
CAR at NO	01:00 PM	CAR +3.5 U 41.5	+500 +500
NE at CIN	01:00 PM	NE +9.0 O 42.0	+500 +500
TEN at CHI	01:00 PM	CHI -4.5 O 42.5	+500 +500
PIT at ATL	01:00 PM	ATL -3.0 U 42.0	+500 +500
MIN at NYG	01:00 PM	MIN -1.0 U 41.0	+500 +500
HOU at IND	01:00 PM	HOU -2.0 U 49.0	+500 +500
LV at LAC	04:05 PM	LAC -3.0 U 42.5	+500 +500
DEN at SEA	04:05 PM	DEN +5.0 U 42.5	+500 +500
DAL at CLE	04:25 PM	CLE -1.0 U 43.0	+500 +500
WAS at TB	04:25 PM	WAS +4.0 U 41.5	+500 +500
LA at DET	08:20 PM	DET -3.5 O 51.0	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS SEPTEMBER !

09/08/2024...............................5 - 11 - 0...........................31.25%...............................- 41.00
09/06/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00
09/05/2024................................0 - 2...................................00.00%..............................- 11.00

TOTALS........................................5 - 15 - 0............................25.00%.............................- 63.00

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s 6-pack:
— Arizona 12, Astros 6- Pavin Smith hit 3 homers, had 8 RBI.
— White Sox 7, Red Sox 2- Chicago scored five runs in last inning.
— Royals 2, Twins 0- Michael Wacha tossed seven shutout IP.
— Reds 3, Mets 1- Loss snaps Mets’ 9-game winning streak.
— Dodgers 4, Guardians 0- Shohei Ohtani hit his 46th home run.
— Braves 4, Blue Jays 3 (11)- Sean Murphy had game-winning RBI

Quote of the Day
“Have you thanked a (Cleveland) Brown lately? Thank ’em for all of our players.”
Hannah McNair, Houston Texans vice president, wife of team owner Cal McNair
She is referring to the bonanza Texans got in the Deshaun Watson trade in 2022.

Monday’s quiz
Before Sunday, who was the last rookie QB to start.a game for the Washington Redskins/Commanders?
(Hint: It happened in 2012)

Sunday’s quiz
When Bryce Harper broke into the major leagues, he was on the Washington Nationals.

Saturday’s quiz
Ron Jaworski was quarterback for the Eagles, the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

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Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..​

Bills 34, Cardinals 28
First three drives, Arizona ran 36 plays, 191 yards, 17 points.
Rest of game, Arizona ran 25 plays, 80 yards, 3 points.
Cardinals’ only TD in second half was a 96-yard kick return.
Last 5 years, Arizona is 2-3-1 SU/5-1 ATS in Week 1.
Cardinals are 21-11-1 ATS in last 33 games as a road underdog.
Arizona led 17-10 at halftime.
Bills scored four TD’s, kicked FG on their first seven drives.
Cardinals were 7-13 on 3rd down, Buffalo 3-9.
Bills were 3-9 on 3rd down conversions, but 2-2 on 4th down.
Bufflo averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt.

Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Stevenson carried ball 25 times for 120 yards.
Joey Slye kicked three field goals (35-35-37 yards)
Bengals outgained New England, 324-290.
Last 10 years, Patriots are 7-3 ATS in road openers.
There were 14,206 entries in the Circa Survivor Pool in Las Vegas; 4,895 people had the Bengals, more than any other team.
Bengals went 3/out on first 3 drives (9 plays, 19 yards)
On their fourth drive, Bengals lost a fumble in red zone.
Cincinnati was minus-2 in turnovers, converted only 4-11 on 3rd down.
Last nine years, Bengals are 2-7 SU/ATS in home openers.
Since 2016, Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS as a favorite in a home opener.

Vikings 28, Giants 6
Vikings had an 11-play, 99 yard TD drive that took up 6:44.
LB Andrew Van Ginkel scored on a 10-yard pick-6.
Vikings outgained the Giants, 312-240
First time in eight years Minnesota won their road opener.
Under is 14-7 in Vikings’ last 21 road openers.
Giants averaged only 3.5 yards/pass attempt.
Giants were minus-2 in turnovers, had 9 penalties for 95 yards.
Last 14 years, Giants started season 0-2 12 times.
Since 2012, Giants are 2-11 SU/1-12 ATS in home openers.
QB Jones is 23-38-1 as an NFL starter.

Bears 24, Titans 17
Tennessee led 17-0 with 2:00 left in first half.
Bears scored two TD’s; a blocked punt, and a pick-6.
Teams combined to convert only 5-27 third down plays.
Tennessee averaged 3.0 yards/pass attempt.
QB Levis is 3-7 as an NFL starter.
QB Williams was 14-29/93 in his NFL debut, but his team won.
Bears averaged only 2.1 yards/pass attempt.
Titans outgained Chicago, 244-148.
Bears outscored Tennessee 14-0 in 4th quarter.
Three teams didn’t score an offensive TD; two of them won.

Steelers 18, Falcons 10
Steelers won without scoring a TD; they kicked six FG’s.
Last 2+ years, Steelers outgained Atlanta, 270-226.
Steelers OC Smith was Atlanta’s head coach the last three years (21-30 W-L)
Since 2017, Pittsburgh is 23-12-1 as a road underdog.
Pittsburgh won/covered its last five road openers.
Falcons in second half: 21 plays, 45 yards, two turnovers.
Atlanta was 2-9 on third down, Steelers 8-17.
Falcons were minus-3 in turnovers (0-3).
Raheem Morris is 21-39 as an NFL head coach.
Last 4+ years, Atlanta is 4-14-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Dolphins 20, Jaguars 17
Jason Sanders kicked a 52-yard FG at the gun for a walk-off win.
Tagovailoa threw a 80-yard TD pass to Tyreek Hill in third quarter
Dolphins were 8-16 on third down, Jaguars were 2-10.
Tagovailoa is 33-20 as an NFL starter.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-6 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jaguars led 14-0 with 2:00 left in first half.
Miami outscored the Jaguars 13-0 in second half.
QB Lawrence is 21-31 as an NFL starter.
Last eight years, Jaguars are 3-5 SU/6-2 ATS in road openers.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 9-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Texans 29, Colts 27
Houston’s first 3 drives: 22 plays, 145 yards: FG-FG-TD
Texans led 12-7 at halftime.
Houston outgained the Colts, 417-303.
Fairbairn made three FG’s: 50-51-51 yards.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 11-7 as an NFL starter.
Colts’ first six drives: 30 plays, 160 yards, 7 points.
Colts’ last three drives: 13 plays, 143 yards, TD-TD-TD
Indy completed only 9-19 passes, but averaged 23.5 yards/completion.
Last 10 years, Colts are 0-10-1 SU/2-8-1 ATS in Week 1.
Texans won their third straight visit to Indianapolis.

Saints 47, Panthers 10
Saints scored on their first nine drives (5 TDs, 4FGs)
New Orleans led 30-3 at halftime.
Saints were 7-13 on third down, Carolina 1-10
Carolina averaged only 3.9 yards/pass attempt.
New Orleans outgained the Panthers, 379-193
Last 3+ years, Carolina is 7-16-1 ATS as road underdog.
2nd year QB Young is 2-15 as an NFL starter.
Last six years, Carolina is 1-5 SU/ATS in Week 1 games.
Since 2009, Panthers are 5-11 ATS in road openers.
Last nine years, Carolina is 11-16-1 ATS in NFC South road games.

Chargers 22, Raiders 10
Chargers outscored Las Vegas 16-3 in second half.
Raiders in 2nd half: 32 plays, 183 yards, 3 points, 2 turnovers.
Chargers were 9-15 on third down, Raiders 5-14.
QB Minshew is 15-23 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.
Riaders’ only TD was 31-yard pass from Minshew to Mattison.
Chargers ran ball for 176 yards, Raiders 71.
JK Dobbins rushed for 135 yards on 10 carries, including a 12-yard TD.
Cameron Dicker kicked three FG’s (53-25-24 yards).
Home team won last seven series games.
Chargers won their season opener five of last six years.

Seahawks 26, Broncos 20
Denver scored two safeties in first half, led 13-9 at halftime.
Seattle’s first three drives of 2nd half: 22 plays, 178 yards, 17 points.
Rookie starting QB’s went 1-2 this week.
Broncos averaged only 3.0 yards/pass attempt.
Seahawks outgained Denver, 304-231.
RB Walker carried ball 20 times for 103 yards and a TD.
Seahawks won four of their last five games against Denver.
QB Smith is 31-37 as an NFL starter, 19-18 with Seattle.
Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last nine home openers.
So far this week, NFC teams are 3-2 vs AFC opponents.

Cowboys 33, Browns 17
QB Prescott signed a 4-year, $240M contract Sunday morning.
KaVontae Turpin ran a punt back 60 yards for a TD.
Brandon Aubrey kicked FG’s of 57, 50, 46 and 40 yards.
QB Prescott is 76-46 as an NFL starter.
Last 2+ years, Dallas is 7-4 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Cleveland went 3/out on seven of first eight drives.
Cowboys led 20-3 at halftime.
Dallas outgained the Browns 216-54 in first half.
Cleveland was 2-15 on third down, Cowboys were 4-14.
Over is 4-1 in Browns’ last five home openers.

Buccaneers 37, Commanders 20
Bucs had ball eight times; scored four TD’s, kicked three FG’s.
QB Mayfield threw for 289 yards and four TD’s.
Mayfield is 43-28 as an NFL starter, 11-9 with Buccaneers.
Last five years, Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in Week 1 games.
Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.
Buccaneers outgained Washington, 392-299.
Rookie QB Daniels had 88 of Washington’s 138 rushing yards.
Commanders were 2-8 on third down, Tampa Bay 9-13.
Last 6 years, Washington allowed 30+ points in road openers (1-5 SU/2-4 ATS)
Over was 5-1 in those six road openers.

Lions 26, Rams 20 OT
Detroit tied game 20-20 on 32-yard FG with 0:20 left in regulation.
Lions drove 70 yards for game-winning TD on first drive of overtime.
Detroit ran ball for 163 yards, Rams ran for 83 yards.
Under Campbell, Lions are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Goff is 27-24-1 as Detroit’s QB (was 44-30 with Rams)
Rams had ball and 20-17 lead with 4:10 left, but couldn’t run out the clock.
Cooper Kupp caught 14 passes for 110 yards and a TD.
LA gained 181 yards in first half, but scored only three points, trailed 10-3.
LA in second half: 37 plays, 237 yards, 17 points.
Rams WR Nacua hurt his knee in first half, didn’t return.