Cnotes NL 2024-2025 Schedule, Best Bets, Opinons, News !

[ozzy44]

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 12-11 SU and 14-8-1 ATS (63.6%) dating back to September ’21. The last 21 of these games have seen Under the total go 17-3-1 (85%) as well, games producing just 35.9 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs. BAL), PLAY ARIZONA (+3 vs. LAC), also PLAY UNDER in both games

· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 24-23 SU but 13-32-2 ATS (28.9%) in the last 47.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs. BAL), ARIZONA (+3 vs. LAC)

· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 34-31 SU but just 23-40-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 65 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-3 at ARI)

Bad MNF Team Trends
Arizona 2-7 ATS in the last nine
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+3 vs. LAC)

Under the Total MNF Team Trends
Arizona 7-2 Under in the last nine
LA Chargers 10-2 Under in the last 12
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER in LAC-ARI (o/u at 43.5)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Baltimore 25-11 SU and 23-12-1 ATS last 36
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-3.5 at TB)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Denver 7-20 SU and 8-17-2 ATS L27
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-3 at NO)

New Orleans 0-7 ATS skid at home
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs. DEN)

NY Jets 2-14 SU while going 4-12 ATS
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (-1.5 at PIT)

Tampa Bay 10-16 SU and 7-19 ATS in the last 26
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs. BAL)

Under the Total Primetime (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Denver 17-3 Under since 2017
System Match (FADE): PLAY UNDER in DEN-NO (o/u at 37)

 

[ozzy44]

Baltimore @ Tampa Bay +3.5, Total 49.5​

Ravens have won 11 straight non-conference games

Bucs are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games vs AFC North division.

Bucs are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games against Baltimore.

Ravens are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games on the road.

Ravens are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games played on a Monday.

Bucs have played 5 straight MNF UNDERs

Bucs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as the underdog.

Bucs are 9-2 to the UNDER past 11 as home dogs

LA Chargers @ Arizona +1, Total 44​

UNDER is 10-2 LA Chargers’ last 12 games played on a Monday.

UNDER is 9-2 LA Chargers’ last 11 games as the favourite.

UNDER is 16-5 LA Chargers’ last 21 games.

UNDER is 16-5 Arizona last 21 MNF games

Cardinals are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 MNF home games

Cardinals are 4-21 SU in their last 25 games at home

Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at Arizona.

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 21​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
BAL at TB	08:15 PM	BAL -4.0 U 50.0	+500 +500
LAC at ARI	09:00 PM	LAC -1.0 U 44.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS OCTOBER !

10/21/2024.................2 - 2 - 0..................50.00%.................- 1,00
10/20/2024.................2 - 4 - 0..................33.33%.................- 12.00
10/14/2024.................0 - 2 - 0..................00.00%.................- 11.00
10/13/2024.................5 - 9 - 2..................35.71%.................- 20.00
10/10/2024.................1 - 1 - 0..................50.00%..................- 0.50
10/06/2024...............7 - 10 - 0.................41.17%..................- 20.00
10/03/2024..................0 - 2 - 0.................00.00%..................-11.00

TOTALS.....................17- 30- 2..................36.17%..................- 75.50

***************************************************

SEPT.TOTALS.............48 - 46 - 2..................51.06%...................- 19.50

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting spreads, Week 8
— Bills (-3) @ Seattle
— Bears (-3) @ Washington
— Panthers @ Denver (-7.5)
— Chiefs (-10) @ Las Vegas
— Cowboys @ San Francisco (-4.5)
— Giants @ Pittsburgh (-6)

Quote of the Day
“We’re all going to be dead soon, and it really doesn’t matter anymore. So there’s zero pressure. You have an opportunity to carry the organization forward, to double down on the tradition and history of what this organization has. And what else would you expect than someone expecting you to win all the time?”
Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla, talking about Boston repeating as NBA champs

Tuesday’s quiz
Arizona Cardinals have played in one Super Bowl; who was their QB in that game?

Monday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers are a publicly-owned team; of the other 31 NFL owners, Bengals owner Mike Brown is the least wealthy.

Sunday’s quiz
Barry Bonds was walked intentionally 120 times in 2004, the most of any player ever; other than Bonds, Willie McCovey (1969) has received the most intentional walks in a season. He had 45 intentional walks that year.

******************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..​

— Ravens 41, Buccaneers 31
Baltimore won/covered last five games, scoring 28-35-41-30-41 points.
First seven drives, Ravens ran 40 plays for 379 yards, 34 points.
RB Henry carried ball 15 times for 169 yards.
Ravens are 10-4 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
Both of Buccaneers’ star WR’s (Evans/Godwin) left with injuries.
Tampa Bay led 10-0 after the first quarter.
Buccaneers scored 33-30-51-31 points in last four games.
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.
Buccaneers are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC teams.

— Cardinals 17, Chargers 15
On their first drive, Chargers fumbled on Arizona’s 2-yard line.
Chargers wound up kicking five field goals on their eight drives.
Last four games, on 17 2nd half drives, Chargers have no TD’s, 4 FG’s.
Chargers scored 22-26-23 points in wins, 10-10-15 in losses.
Chargers are 3-12 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Arizona drove 56 yards, kicked game-winning FG at the gun.
Cardinals are 17-12 ATS last 29 games coming off a loss.
Chargers were 6-14 on third down, Arizona 2-7
Murray’s 44-yard TD run put Cardinals ahead 14-9.
Cardinals are 8-5 ATS last 13 games as a home underdog.

— OK, let’s say you’re voting for who gets into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Let’s take a look at the blind resume for two candidates (both QB’s):
Player A: 117-117 regular season W-L, 8-4 playoffs.
Won two Super Bowls
Player B: 72-72 regular season W-L, 8-2 playoffs.
Won two Super Bowls
Who gets in? Both? Neither? Just Player A? Just Player B?
Both won two Super Bowls, with a .500 regular season record. Seems logical that both of them should get in, or neither one, right?

— Cleveland Browns are planning on building a domed stadium in suburban Brook Park, which apparently will be privately funded.

— Giants’ QB Daniel Jones is the only starting QB since 2000 with no passing TD’s in six consecutive home games.

— When the Lions play in Green Bay on November 3rd, it’ll be their first game outdoors this season, their eighth game this year.

— Famous birthdays, October 22:
Christopher Lloyd, 86
Wilbur Wood, 83
Jeff Goldblum, 72
Jamie Quirk, 70
Luis Zendejas, 63
Ichiro Suzuki, 51
Carmen Ejogo, 50
Robinson Cano, 42
Corbin Burnes, 30

There will be scapegoats:
— Oklahoma has lost three of its last four games, is 132nd in the country in offense; they fired offensive coordinator Seth Littrell Sunday.
Littrell was North Texas’ head coach from 2016-22; he was an analyst at Oklahoma last year, was promoted to OC this year when Jeff Lebby left to become Mississippi State’s head coach.

— Oklahoma is an underdog of 20.5 points vs Ole Miss this week; it would be the first time since 1997 that the Sooners were an underdog of 20+ points- 348 games ago.

— Utah Utes offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig resigned (was fired) Sunday; Utah lost its last three games, scoring a total of 36 points. Mike Bajakian was promoted to QB coach/offensive coordinator (on an interim basis).
Bajakian joined Utah this year as an analyst after spending four seasons as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Northwestern, a school exactly known for offense, but he was also a QB coach for the Tampa Bay Bucs from 2015-18.

— East Carolina fired football coach Mike Houston after their 3-4 start; Houston was 27-38 in 5+ seasons coaching the Pirates, getting to bowl games in 2021, 2022, but ECU lost its last two games, giving up 100 points to Charlotte/Army. Not good.

— USC has led in the 4th quarter of all their games this season, but they’re 3-4; over the last 20 years, only one other team has led in the 4th quarter of their first seven games, and been under .500 (Utah State in 2011).

— Movie of the Day: One on One (1977)- A small-town basketball star goes to college and tries to impress his tutor, teammates, and coach.
Robby Benson is the star; lot has changed since this movie was made (I was in high school, for example) but some of it still holds up. Annette O’Toole is his tutor and a very young Melanie Griffith has a cameo at the start of the movie.
One on One was filmed at Colorado State; I think they still use that arena.

— In September, parlays accounted for 32.3% of sports bets in New Jersey, 72.5% of their gross revenue. Parlays are a casino’s very good friend.

— Do NFL coaches get drug tested? I’m wondering this because Detroit coach Dan Campbell does some weird stuff— he takes chances, reckless chances at times.
First possession Sunday, Lions tried a fake punt in Minnesota; it failed badly, but the Lions were good enough to win anyway, kicking a field goal at the end. Couple of years ago against the Rams, Detroit tried an onside kick/fake punt in the first half….of the same game!!!

— 2016 Atlanta Falcons had five coaches on their staff who are currently NFL head coaches:
Dan Quinn, Washington
Raheem Morris, Atlanta
Mike McDaniel, Miami
Jeff Ulbrich, Jets
Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco

— Oh, by the way, the two quarterbacks up above?
Player B is Jim Plunkett
Player A in Eli Manning

 

[Udog]

WEEK 8

Thursday, October 24

Sunday, October 27

Monday, October 28

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 8

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Trend Report
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Minnesota vs LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Rams's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

Indianapolis vs Houston
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Baltimore vs Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 15 games at home

Tennessee vs Detroit
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

Green Bay vs Jacksonville
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games

Arizona vs Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Miami
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 8 games

NY Jets vs New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing New England
NY Jets is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against NY Jets

Atlanta vs Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Atlanta's last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games when playing Atlanta

Philadelphia vs Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home

New Orleans vs LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans

Buffalo vs Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Chicago vs Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Chicago

Kansas City vs Las Vegas
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 8 games when playing Kansas City

Carolina vs Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina

Dallas vs San Francisco
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games
San Francisco is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 13 games when playing Dallas

NY Giants vs Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing NY Giants


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 8

Thursday’s game
Vikings (-3) @ Rams
Vikings (5-1)
Minnesota won/covered five of first six games, scoring 28 ppg.
Vikings have outscored opponents 96-45 in first half.
Vikings are 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Team total: over 6-0
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2


QB Darnold is 26-36 as an NFL starter, 5-1 with Vikings.
Minnesota is 6-0-2 ATS in last eight games as road favorite.
Vikings are 15-11-3 ATS in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Minnesota has 14 takeaways in six games (+4 turnovers).
NFC North teams are 17-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
O’Connell was OC for Rams in 2020-21, when they won Super Bowl.


Rams (2-4)
Rams scored 27-20 points in wins, 20-10-18-19 in losses
Five of their six games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Under McVay, Rams are 36-46-2 ATS coming off a win.
Team total: under 5-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-3


Rams are 5-3-1 ATS last nine games as a home underdog.
Rams allowed 24+ points in five of six games.
Last week was first time Rams led after three quarters.
Last three games, opponents are 7-32 on third down.
NFC West teams are 6-12-1 ATS in non-divisional games.


Rams won last two meetings, 30-23/38-31
Vikings are 3-1 SU/4-0 SU in last four road series games.
Over is 7-4 in last eleven series games.

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting college football spreads, Week 8
— Boise State (-3) @ UNLV
— Notre Dame (-12.5) vs Navy (@ Meadowlands)
— Washington @ Indiana (-6.5)
— Illinois @ Oregon (-21.5)
— BYU @ Central Florida (-1.5)
— Texas Tech @ TCU (-6.5)

Quote of the Day
“If a guy is going to cheat you on the golf course, he’s going to cheat you in business.”
Arnold Palmer, as told to Rick Reilly

Wednesday’s quiz
Last two times the New York Knicks won the NBA title, which team did they beat in the Finals both times?

Tuesday’s quiz
Arizona Cardinals have played in one Super Bowl; Hall of Famer Kurt Warner was their QB in that game.

Monday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers are a publicly-owned team; of the other 31 NFL owners, Bengals owner Mike Brown is the least wealthy.

***********************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….​

— Celtics 132, Knicks 109
Celtics led 74-55 at halftime.
Boston shot 29-61 on the arc, and they missed their last 14.
Jayson Tatum scored 37 points.

— Lakers 110, Timberwolves 103
Anthony Davis scored 36 points, grabbed 16 rebounds.
Lebron/Bronny James are first father/son to play in same NBA game.
Lakers had lost their last six season openers.

— Sam Houston 10, Florida International 7
Game was scoreless at halftime.
Sam Houston kicked a 20-yard FG with 1:57 left for the road win.
Bearkats are bowl eligible for the first time as a I-A team.

— Louisiana Tech 14, Texas-El Paso 10
Tech was 6-17 on third down, Miners 1-14.
Bulldogs ran ball 30 times for 7 yards, UTEP 47 times for 166 yards.
Tech has won 11 of its last 12 games against UTEP.

— All 32 NHL teams played Tuesday; the over/under on goals scored for all 32 teams was 101.5. Night ended with 98 goals being scored.

— American League teams won last two World Series; leagues split the last 12 Fall Classics.

— When the Rams won Sunday, Sean McVay tied John Robinson for the most wins (79) by a coach in franchise history.

— Famous birthdays, October 23rd:
Weird Al Yankovic, 65
Doug Flutie, 62
Mike Tomczak, 62
Keith Van Horn, 49
Ryan Reynolds, 48
Kyle Gibson, 37
Nick Bosa, 27
Dylan Carlson, 26

— Random fact that is kind of amazing; Pittsburgh Steelers have had only three head coaches since 1969- Chick Noll, Bill Cowher, Mike Tomlin.
Steelers are only NFL team that hasn’t played a divisional game yet.

— Indiana Hoosiers QB Kurtis Rourke had surgery on his right (passing) thumb, is out for a while. Indiana, off to its best start since 1967, hosts Washington Saturday.

— Hawai’i is joining the Mountain West on a full-time basis in two years, which figures to hurt their basketball program. Hawaii is 34-21 in Big West games the last three years, but moving up to the Mountain West is a big step up, just ask UNLV.

— If you have a son who is athletic and kind of tall, get him a basketball and send him outside to practice……..a lot
Denver Nuggets signed Aaron Gordon to a 4-year, $133M contract extension.
Washington Wizards signed Corey Kispert to a 4-year, $54M contract extension.
Atlanta Hawks signed Jalen Johnson to a 5-year, $150M contract extension.
Golden State Warriors signed Moses Moody to a 3-year, $39M contract extension.
Houston Rockets signed Alperen Sengun to a 5-year, $185M contract extension.
Minnesota Timberwolves signed Rudy Gobert to a 3-year, $110M contract extension.
It is really, really hard to make it to the NBA, but if you do, it pays off handsomely.

— Fernando Valenzuela, the great Dodger pitcher, passed away Tuesday at age 63.
In 1981, Valenzuela won the NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards as a 20-year-old by going 13-7 with a 2.48 ERA.
Valenzuela went to six consecutive All-Star Games from 1981-86 and also finished in the top five of the Cy Young voting in 1982, 1985, and 1986.
June 19, 1990, Valenzuela pitched a no-hitter against St Louis, the same night Dave Stewart also threw a no-hitter, the only time two no-hitters happened on the same day.
Valenzuela had a 173-153 record in the majors, then was 5-1, 1.98 in eight playoff games.
RIP, sir.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 8

Sunday’s games
Jets (-7) @ Patriots
Jets (2-5)
Jets are 0-4 SU/ATS in last four games.
Jets gave up 23-37 points in two games since coaching change.
Jets scored 24-24 points in wins, 19-9-17-20-15 in losses.
Team total: under 3-1 last four
Opponents’ team total: over 3-0 last three


Jets are 2-7-1 ATS last ten games as a road favorite.
Jets are 15-20 ATS last 35 games coming off a loss.
Last two weeks, Jets were outscored 27-3 in 2nd half.
Rodgers is 161-90-1 as an NFL starter, 3-5 with Jets.
Jets are 3-9 ATS in last 12 AFC East road games.


Patriots (1-6)
New England lost last six games, outscored 90-43 in first half.
Last two weeks, Patriots gave up 193-192-171 rushing yards.
Patriots are 30-45 since Tom Brady left town.
Team total: under 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2


NE is 7-20-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
New England lost in England LW; no bye week after.
Patriots are 0-5 against the spread last five games.
Patriots are 4-13 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Rookie QB Maye is 0-2 as an NFL starter.
Maye is 24-41/265 passing in his two games.


Jets outgained New England 400-139 in 24-3 win in Week 3.
Patriots are 23-4 in last 27 series games.
Jets are 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in last eight visits to Foxboro.
Last six meetings stayed under the total.


Eagles @ Bengals (-2.5)
Eagles (4-2)
Eagles won three of their last four games.
Last two games, Eagles didn’t allow a TD on 20 drives.
Philly outgained last two opponents, 711-363.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1 last four


Philly is 10-14 ATS in last 24 games as an underdog.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 6-9 ATS as an underdog.
QB Hurts is 40-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC opponents.
Eagles are 6-2-1 ATS last nine games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
NFC East road underdogs are 7-2 ATS in non-divisional games.


Bengals (3-4)
Cincy won three of last four games, after an 0-3 start.
Bengals are 0-3 at home, losing by 6-5-3 points.
Last week, Bengals ran opening kick back 100 yards for a TD.
Team total: over 4-3
Opponents’ team total: over 3-3-1


Bengals are 9-5-2 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
QB Burrow is 37-28-1 as an NFL starter.
Cincinnati is 14-5-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
Bengals are 8-7-2 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Bengals are 10-1-2 ATS last 13 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC North home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Bengals are 3-0-2 SU/5-0 ATS in last five series games.
Eagles are 0-1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in last two visits to Cincinnati.
Under is 3-3 in last three meetings.


Packers (-4.5) @ Jaguars
Packers (5-2)
Packers won five of their last six games.
Green Bay’s two losses were 34-29/31-29.
Green Bay outscored last four foes 66-22 in second half.
Team total: over 4-3
Opponents’ team total: under 5-2


Packers outscored last four opponents 56-15 in second half.
Green Bay is 3-10-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
Green Bay is 17-13-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
Packers are 16-13-1 ATS last 30 games vs AFC teams.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.
NFC North teams are 17-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Jaguars (2-5)
Jaguars scored 37-32 points in their wins, 20 or less in losses.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 9-9 ATS coming off a win.
Jaguars spent last two weeks in England, are home now.
Team total: under 4-3
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Under Pederson, Jaguars are 4-3 ATS as a home underdog.
QB Lawrence is 23-36 as an NFL starter.
Four of their last five games went over the total.
Jaguars are 9-31 ATS in last 40 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC South favorites are 4-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Green Bay won last three meetings, by 4-4-9 points.
Packers are 3-1 SU/ATS in last four visits to Jacksonville.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.


Titans @ Lions (-11)
Titans (1-5)
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; their win was 31-12.
Tennessee is minus-9 in turnovers, have had two punts blocked.
Titans were held under 300 TY in five of their six games.
Team total: under 5-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-2-2


Tennessee is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog.
Titans has trailed in only one of their six games at halftime.
Tennessee has been outscored 94-43 in second half.
Titans are 12-12-1 ATS last 25 games vs NFC opponents.
QB Rudolph is 8-6-1 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee averaged 5.3 or worse yards/pass attempt in every game.


Lions (5-1)
Lions scored 42-47-31 points last three games (15 TDs on 31 drives).
Detroit has converted 30 of 64 third down plays.
Opponents have converted 20 of 64 third down plays.
Team total: over 3-0 last three
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2


Under Campbell, Lions are 11-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Detroit is 10-5 ATS last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 17-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, Lions averaged 12.4/10.3/8.5 yards/pass attempt.
Lions have outscored opponents 34-6 in last 2:00 of each half.


Tennessee won last six series games (5-0 ATS last five)
Titans are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in last three visits to Detroit.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Falcons (-2.5) @ Buccaneers
Falcons (4-3)
Atlanta won three of its last four games SU.
Falcons were held to 10-17-14 points in their losses.
Three of Falcons’ last four games went over the total.
Team total: over 4-3
Opponents’ team total: over 3-0-1 last four


Atlanta is 2-0 SU on road (22-21 Eagles/38-20 Panthers)
Falcons are 8-12-1 ATS last 21 games coming off a loss.
QB Cousins is 81-73-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 5-14 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Atlanta is 6-4 ATS in last 10 NFC South road games.


Buccaneers (4-3)
Buccaneers split last four games, scoring 33-30-51-31 points.
Bucs scored 17 TD’s on their last 42 drives.
Tampa Bay is 1-4-1 ATS in last six NFC South home games.
Team total: over 5-2
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2


Tampa Bay lost star WRs Evans/Godwin to injury Monday nite.
Since 2021, Bucs are 2-5 ATS as a home underdog.
QB Mayfield is 46-51 as an NFL starter, 14-12 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay’s last four games went over the total.
Bucs are 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.
Bucs are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Atlanta (-2.5) beat Tampa Bay 36-30 in OT in Week 5.
Cousins threw for 509 yards in that game.
Teams split last six series games.
Falcons are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in last four visits to Tampa.


Cardinals @ Dolphins (-3)
Cardinals (3-4)
Short week, long travel for Arizona after Monday nite’s last-second win.
Cardinals are 2-7 ATS last nine games coming off a win.
In its three wins, Arizona outscored foes 41-16 in second half.
Team total: under 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


QB Murray is 31-41-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 16-9 ATS last 25 games as a road underdog.
Arizona is 8-7 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last five games, opponents are 34-61 on third down.
Cardinals are 11-6 ATS last 17 games vs AFC opponents.
NFC West road underdogs are 2-4 ATS in non-divisional games.


Dolphins (2-4)
QB Tagovailoa is expected back, after missing last four games.
Miami allowed 17-10 points in its wins, 31-24-16-31 in losses.
Dolphins have already played four QB’s in their 2-4 start.
Tagovailoa is 33-21 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 6-0
Opponents’ team total: over 3-3


Miami lost four of its last five games SU.
Last five games, Dolphins have four touchdowns on 55 drives.
Miami is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite TY (16-6 from 2020-23).
Dolphins are 8-12 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-8 ATS in games coming off a loss
AFC East favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Dolphins won last two meetings, 34-31/26-23
Teams split last two meetings in Miami.
Four of last five series games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
Last five series games went over the total.


Ravens (-9) @ Browns
Ravens (5-2)
Short week for Ravens after Monday night’s win.
Baltimore won/covered last five games, scoring 28-35-41-30-41 points.
Ravens have outscored opponents 109-65 in first half.
Ravens have run ball for 210.9 yards/game.
Team total: over 5-2
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1


Ravens are 10-4 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 65-25 as an NFL starter.
Baltimore is 11-6 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Ravens are 10-6 ATS in last 16 AFC North road games.
Last two weeks, Ravens averaged 11.0/11.0 yards/pass attempt.


Browns (1-6)
QB Watson is OFY; Winston is starting QB now, Zappe the backup.
Cleveland scored 17-18-15-16-13-16-14 points in its 1-6 start.
Browns have gained 230-297-217-152-215-244-336 yards.
Team total: under 7-0
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


Browns are 5-3-1 ATS last nine games as a home underdog.
QB Winston is 34-46 as an NFL starter.
Cleveland is 12-5-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in last seven AFC North games.
Browns have averaged 5.1 or less yards/pass attempt in every game.
Under is 5-1 in their last six games.


Baltimore is 15-6 SU in last 21 series games.
Ravens split their last six visits to Cleveland.
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.


Colts @ Texans (-6)
Colts (4-3)
Indy won four of its last five games (4-0-1 ATS)
All seven Colts games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Underdogs are 5-1-1 ATS in Colt games this season.
Team total: over 3-3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Colts are 6-7-1 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
Indy is 13-11-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
QB Richardson is 5-4 as an NFL starter.
Colts are 3-1-1 ATS last five AFC South road games.
Last two weeks, Colts outscored opponents 23-7 in second half.


Texans (5-2)
Texans have four wins by 6 or fewer points.
Houston gave up 34-24 points in its two losses.
Texans converted 23 of last 53 third down plays.
Team total: under 5-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


Texans are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite
Houston is 6-3 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 15-9 as an NFL starter.
Houston is 2-5 ATS in last seven AFC South home games.
Texans held last three opponents under 300 TY.


Texans (-3) beat Colts 29-27 in Week 1, in Indy.
Colts are 6-3-1 SU in last ten games against the Texans.
Colts are 3-0-1 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Houston.
Under is 6-3 in last nine series games.


Saints @ Chargers (-7)
Saints (2-5)
New Orleans lost its last five games, last three by 13-24-13 points.
Saints are 1-4 against spread in last five games.
Last three games, New Orleans was outscored 54-10 in second half.
Team total: over 4-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


Saints are 16-6-1 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
Last two weeks, Saints ran ball only 57 times, for 224 yards.
Last 5+ years, New Orleans is 20-15-1 ATS coming off a loss (1-3 TY).
Saints are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
Rookie QB Rattler is 0-2 as an NFL starter.
Over is 5-2 in their games this season.
NFC South road underdogs are 4-2 ATS in non-divisional games.


Chargers (3-3)
Chargers scored 22-26-23 points in wins, 10-10-15 in losses.
Last four games, Chargers were outscored 49-12 in 2nd half.
Last three halves, Chargers have no TD’s, 6 FG’s on 13 drives.
Team total: over 3-3
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1


Chargers are 12-22-1 ATS last 35 games as home favorites.
Chargers are 10-8-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs NFC teams.
Chargers are 19-25-1 ATS in last 45 games coming off a loss.
QB Herbert is 33-36 as an NFL starter.
Under is 5-1 in their first six games.
AFC West favorites are 5-3 ATS in non-divisional games.


Saints won last four meetings, all by 7 or fewer points.
Saints won two of last three visits to San Diego.
Last six series games went over the total.


Bills (-3) @ Seahawks
Bills (5-2)
Buffalo gave up 35-23 points in its two losses (4-0 allow less than 23).
Buffalo outscored last three opponents 47-9 in second half.
Last three games, Bills are +5 in turnovers (5-0).
Team total: over 5-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Buffalo is 16-12 ATS in last 28 games as a road favorite.
Bills are 26-19-1 ATS in last 46 games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 73-37 as NFL starter.
Last four games, Bills converted only 14 of 48 third down plays.
Buffalo is 16-5-1 ATS last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
AFC East teams are 5-14-1 ATS in non-divisional games.


Seahawks (4-3)
Seattle allowed 42-29-36 points in losses, 20 or less in wins.
Seattle is 6-4 ATS last ten games as a home underdog.
Seahawks are 12-20-3 ATS last 35 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 7-0
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2


QB Smith is 34-40 as an NFL starter, 22-21 with Seattle.
Last three games, opponents converted 20-43 third down plays.
Seattle is 14-16-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 5-2 in their games this season.
Last three weeks, opponents ran ball for 186 yards/game.
NFC West underdogs are 3-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Teams split their last six meetings.
Bills are 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in last three visits to Seattle.
Underdogs are 5-2 ATS in last seven series games.


Bears (-2.5) @ Commanders
Bears (4-2)
Bears scored 24-24-36-35 points in their wins, 13-16 in losses.
Last three games, Chicago scored 13 TD’s on 29 drives.
Bears have outscored opponents 84-45 in second half.
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 6-0


Under Eberflus, Bears are 5-3-1 ATS as favorites.
Chicago is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
Bears are 1-9 SU/3-7 ATS last ten post-bye games (3-0 ATS last three)
Last three games, Chicago was +6 in turnovers (7-1).
Bears last three games went over the total.


Commanders (4-2)
Rookie QB Daniels (ribs) is hurt; veteran Mariota is the backup.
Mariota is 35-41 as an NFL starter.
Commanders won/covered five of their last six games.
Last six games, Commanders scored 19 TD’s, kicked 20 FG’s on 51 drives.
Team total: over 6-1
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Washington allowed 37-30 points in their two losses.
Washington converted 38 of last 74 third down plays.
Commanders are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Commanders are 4-1 ATS in last fie games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Washington ran ball for 200+ yards in four of its five wins.
Over is 5-2 in Washington games this year.


Commanders won eight of last ten series games.
Road team won last five meetings.
Bears won 40-20/31-15 in last two visits here.
Over is 5-1 in last six series games.


Panthers @ Broncos (-9)
Panthers (1-6)
Carolina’s six losses are by 37-23-10-26-18-33 points.
Carolina is 2-10-1 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.
Panthers gave up 20+ points in first half in six of seven games.
QB Dalton was in a car accident Tuesday (check status)
Team total: under 4-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1


Carolina is 4-14-2 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
Last four weeks, Panthers allowed 7.5/9.9/7.5/8.0 yards/pass play.
Over is 5-2 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers opponents are 41-86 on third down.
Carolina is 6-12 ATS last 18 games vs AFC teams.
Dalton is 84-86-2 as an NFL starter, 1-5 with Carolina.
Last three games, Carolina was outscored 38-13 in 2nd half.


Broncos (4-3)
Denver won/covered four of its last five games.
Broncos outscored last six opponents 76-24 in second half.
Denver is only 24-91 on third down conversions.
Team total: over 4-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Under Payton, Denver is 4-6 ATS as a favorite.
In wins, Broncos are +5 in turnovers; in losses, minus-5.
Denver is 22-18-2 ATS in last 42 games vs NFC teams.
Under Payton, Denver is 6-6 ATS coming off a win.
AFC West favorites are 5-3 ATS in non-divisional games.


Broncos won four of last six series games.
Panthers lost 21-20/20-17 in last two visits to Denver.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Chiefs (-10) @ Raiders
Chiefs (6-0)
Chiefs won their first six games (4-2 ATS), by 7-1-5-7-13-10 points.
Kansas City is 6-0 despite being minus-5 in turnovers.
Chiefs trailed at halftime in three of the six games.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2


Fourth road games in six weeks for Chiefs, with bye mixed in.
Chiefs are 21-10 ATS in last 31 AFC West road games.
QB Mahomes is 95-25 as an NFL starter.
Last four games, Chiefs are 29-58 on third down.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 73-40 in second half.
Chiefs’ last four games stayed under the total.

Raiders (2-5)
Raiders have 16 turnovers in seven games (minus-13).
Raiders have one TD, five FG’s on their last 23 drives.
Raiders’ two wins were by 3-4 points, losses by 12-14-16-19-5.
Team total: under 4-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


Raiders are 9-10-1 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
Las Vegas is 16-20-1 ATS in last 37 games following a loss.
Opponents have converted only 24 of 83 third down plays.
QB Minshew is 17-25 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Raiders are 14-7 ATS in last 21 AFC West home games.


Kansas City won 15 of last 18 series games.
Chiefs are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Las Vegas.
Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.


Cowboys @ 49ers (-4)
Cowboys (3-3)
Cowboys gave up 17-15-17 points in wins, 44-28-47 in losses.
Road team won/covered all six of their games.
Cowboys are 3-0 on road, 0-3 at home.
Dallas is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Team total: over 3-3
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3


Dallas is 7-6 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.
QB Prescott is 78-49 as an NFL starter.
Cowboys allowed 14.2/12.1/10.3 yards/pass attempt in their losses.
Cowboys allowed 2.7/6.8/4.3 yards/pass attempt in their wins.
Over is 4-2 in Dallas games this season.
Cowboys are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 post-bye games.
NFC East road underdogs are 7-2 ATS in non-divisional games.


49ers (3-4)
49ers have losses by 1-3-6-10 points, wins by 13-17-12 points.
49ers are 12-8 ATS last 20 games as a home favorite.
49ers scored 32-30-36 points in wins, 17-24-23-18 in losses.
Team total: under 4-3
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1-1


WR Aiyuk is OFY, Samuel has pneumonia.
49ers were outscored 79-53 in 2nd half of last five games.
QB Purdy is 24-9 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 11-7 ATS last 18 games coming off a loss.
Over is 5-2 in their games this season.
NFC West favorites are 3-5-1 ATS in non-divisional games.


49ers won last three meetings, by a combined 84-39.
Cowboys are 4-2 SU/2-3-1 ATS in last six visits to Santa Clara.
Over is 9-4 in last 13 series games.


Monday’s game
Steelers (-6.5) @ Giants
Steelers (5-2)
QB Wilson averaged 8.7 yards/pass attempt in his first Steelers start.
Wilson is 125-79-1 as an NFL starter, 18-27 since 2021.
Steelers are 4-2 ATS last six games as a road favorite.
Team total: under 4-3
Opponents’ team total: under 6-1


Steelers allowed 10-6-10-13-15 points in wins, 27-20 in losses.
Pittsburgh is 12-7-1 in its last 20 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh gained 409 yards LW, its most this season.
Steelers are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC teams.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
AFC North road teams are 10-4 ATS in non-divisional games.


Giants (2-4)
Giants are 0-4 at home, scoring one TD on 41 drives.
Giants lost their home games, b 22-5-10-25 points.
Under is 6-1 in their games this season.
Team total: under 5-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Under Daboll, Giants are 8-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Daboll, Giants are 14-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Daboll, Giants are 8-3-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
QB Jones is 25-42-1 as an NFL starter.
Opponents are only 25-83 on third down.
NFC East home teams are 2-7 ATS in non-division games.


Pittsburgh won last three meetings, by 10-10-4 points.
Steelers won last three road series games (2-1 ATS)
Last four meetings stayed under the total.

 

[ozzy44]

Best NFL Week 8 betting trends​

The trends: The Vikings are 6-0 to the Over on their team total this season, the Rams are 1-5 to the Over on their team totals

The trend: The Browns have gone Under their team total in every game this season

The trend: The Texans have gone Under in 15 of their last 21 regular season games

The trend: The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS after their last four wins

The trend: The Titans are 1-5 ATS this season

The trend: Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS on the first-quarter spread

The trend: These teams have gone Under in five straight meetings NYJ vs. NE

The trend: Kyler Murray hasn't won consecutive starts since October 2021

The trend: These teams are a combined 11-2 to the first-quarter Under Phi vs Cin

The trend: Chargers games have an average combined score of just 31.5 points
The total for this game is 40.5 points. No Chargers game has topped 39 points this season, while four of their six have stayed below 33. Now we add in a Saints offense that’s had outputs of 10, 13, and 12 in three of its last five games

The trend: The Bills have gone Under in 15 of their last 20 road games

The trend: Caleb Williams has thrown five interceptions in three road games

The trend: The Chiefs are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games

The trend: All seven Panthers games have gone Over the first-half total

The trend: The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games

The trend: The Giants have gone Under in 16 of their last 22 games

 

[ozzy44]

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Houston: 14-1 to the Under in the last 15 rematch games vs. IND
System Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-HOU (o/u at 46)

NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or less first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 20-32 SU but 35-17 ATS (67.3%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches: PLAY CAROLINA (+10 at DEN), PLAY NY GIANTS (+6.5 at PIT)

NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 23-50 SU but 46-26-1 ATS (63.9%) since 2007.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND (+7 vs NYJ)

NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 4-15 SU and 3-16 ATS (15.8%) in their last 19 tries.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+4 at SF)

LA Rams 13-4 Under surge in primetime and Minnesota 21-11 Under primetime record since 2015
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER in MIN-LAR (o/u at 48)

Chicago is 1-9 SU and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 post-bye week games, outscored by 12.8 PPG in the nine losses
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-2.5 at WAS)

Jacksonville is 10-34 ATS (22.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+4 vs. GB)

* All 10 games in Buffalo-Seattle series since 1995 went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in BUF-SEA (o/u at 46.5)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS projections: CAROLINA +10 at DEN (+5.9 difference)

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
— Kennesaw State 27, Liberty 24- Liberty was favored by 27.5 points.
— Jacksonville State 42, MTSU 20- Gamecocks outscored MT 21-3 in 3rd quarter.
— Suns 116, Clippers 113 OT- Suns were +14 in 24:00 Royce O’Neale played.
— Grizzlies 126, Jazz 124- Ja Morant had 22 points,, ten assists.
— Pacers 115, Pistons 109- Indiana outscored Pistons 33-19 in 4th quarter.
— Hawks 120, Nets 116- Onyeka Okongwu scored a career-high 28 points.

Quote of the Day
“We are not making any changes.”
New Jersey Giants owner John Mara

Thursday’s quiz
In the old TV show Magnum PI, what holiday did Magnum always spend by himself?

Wednesday’s quiz
Last two times the New York Knicks won the NBA title, they beat the Lakers in the Finals both times.

Tuesday’s quiz
Arizona Cardinals have played in one Super Bowl; Hall of Famer Kurt Warner was their QB in that game.

******************************************

Thursday’s Den: Very early college basketball information…….​

College basketball starts in 10 days…..some stuff to think about
— UConn won the last two national titles; last team to win three in a row was UCLA, way back from 1971-73. Last spring, Danny Hurley turned down a chance to coach the Lakers; he lost four starters from last year, but his Huskies are still a preseason top 10 team.

— TV/radio personality Doug Gottlieb is the new coach at Green Bay; he’s making $215,000 this year coaching, as well as continuing as host of his national radio show during the week. He was a really good TV analyst on game broadcasts.
Gottlieb played point guard at Notre Dame/Oklahoma State; his late father was a coach, and his brother is still coaching. This should be interesting to follow.

— 6-3 guard PJ Haggerty scored 21.2 ppg last year for Tulsa, more than any freshman in the country; he then bolted to Memphi$, because that’s what happens in college sports now. Rooting for smaller college teams is like rooting for the A’s or the Pirates- your best players are bolting for $$$.

— No Pac-12 this year; it’ll be back down the road, but there is one less automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament this year, and one more at-large bid. Oregon State, Washington State are playing in the WCC this year, Gonzaga’s league.

— 15 of the 18 ACC teams will be in the ACC Tournament……10 of the 13 teams in the MAAC will be in their tournament. In the past, the whole league played in their conference tournaments.

— Since 2015, six ACC teams have made it to a Final Four:
Duke, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Syracuse, Virginia

— College sports has gone mad; realignment of leagues has been to maximize $$$ from football, and basketball (and other sports) are suffering as a result.
Stanford/Cal are in the ATLANTIC Coast Conference; they’ll take two-game road trips this winter. January 15, 18th Stanford plays at Wake Forest/North Carolina; this makes no sense, and must cost schools a ton of dollar$.

— Famous birthdays, October 24th:
Kevin Kline, 77
Chester Marcol, 75
Omar Moreno, 72
Jay Novacek, 62
Corey Dillon, 50
Eric Hosmer, 35
Jalen Ramsey, 30
Rafael Devers, 28
Jaylen Brown, 28
Amon-Ra St. Brown, 25

— David Patrick is a coach who has now quit as a head coach twice, to become an assistant coach somewhere else, an unusual career move.
From 2018-20, Patrick was coach at Cal-Riverside; they went 10-23/17-15 at UCR, improving from 4-12 to 7-9 in the Big West in his second year, but then he bolted to Arkansas, where he was an assistant for Eric Musselman.
The last two years, Patrick was an assistant at Sacramento State in the Big Sky, where he went 14-18/10-24 in two years. Last spring, Patrick moved on and is now an assistant at LSU.

— Only three Big East teams made the NCAA Tournament last year, the fewest amount of teams since the league re-booted in 2014. One of those teams won the national title, but St John’s and Seton Hall getting squeezed out of at-large bids was surprising.

— Eric Musselman is going to win big (eventually) at USC; he’s added 10 transfers this season, eight of them seniors. There is only one kid on USC’s team who was a Trojan last year, and he only scored 2.3 ppg last year.

— Last seven years, seven different teams have won the C0nference USA conference tournament; last 11 years, eight different teams have won the Big West tournament.

— Steve Lutz is the new coach at Oklahoma State; he was 22-12 in his one year at Western Kentucky last year, after he was 47-23, 21-11 in two years at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.
Oklahoma State was 21-9 in the one year Cade Cunningham played for them, but in the three years since, Cowboys went 8-10, 4-14. 4-14 in Big X games.

— Utah State is on its sixth head coach in 11 years, which is weird because during that time, they’ve had only one losing season.

— Since 2010, Ivy League teams are a surprisingly good 8-14 in the NCAA Tournament.

— Coaching carousel was in full gear this past spring:
Rob Lanier went from SMU to Rice
Andy Enfield went from USC to SMU
Eric Musselman went from Arkansas to USC
John Calipari went from Kentucky to Arkansas
Mark Pope went from BYU to Kentucky.
Kyle Smith went from Washington State to Stanford
Danny Sprinkle went from Utah State to Washington
Dusty May went from Florida Atlantic to Michigan
Pat Kelsey went from Charleston to Louisville
Former Louisville coach Chris Mack went to Charleston.
Should be a very interesting season; enjoy!!!

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Thursday, October 24

 

[ozzy44]

Top NFL Things To Know​

A Whole New World​

Lions Big Favorites
Lions are 11-pt favorites vs. Titans this week…

Detroit hasn’t closed as this high a favorite since September of 1996 vs. Bucs as a 12-pt favorite behind 125 rushing yards from Barry Sanders. That was 459 total games ago for Detroit.

Road Domination​

Pack It Up
Road favorites are 16-2 ATS since start of Week 5, with the Jets and Chargers the only losses, both coming in primetime in Week 7.

Overall, road teams are 61-39-3 ATS (61%) this season — the 2nd best win pct through 7 weeks in the Wild Card era since 1990.

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Engine Trouble​

Eagles Starting Slow
A stat that feels impossible. Through seven games, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the first quarter. They are 0-6 against the first quarter spread, only team in the NFL without a 1Q ATS cover this year.

Eagles first quarter offense: 13 possessions. 59 plays, 175 yards (2.97 yards per play), 5 three-and-outs, 3 turnovers. 0 points.

Last 20 years, only three teams have scored 0 1Q pts through Week 7.
2021 Jets (finished 4-13)
2008 Lions (finished 0-16)
2005 Cardinals (finished 5-11)

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Public Strikes Back​

Turn Around
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 48-53-3 ATS (48%) this season, with a $100 bettor down $932. Like with big dogs, we’ve seen a turn the last two weeks.

Public by week:
Weeks 6-7: 20-7-1 ATS (Teams with 66%+ tickets are 17-0-1 ATS)
Weeks 1-5: 48-69-2 ATS, 41%

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Trouble vs. Your Own​

Stefanski Against AFC North
The Browns are 8-17 ATS against AFC North teams under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of the 153 head coaches since 2003 to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the least profitable ATS. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), no head coach has a worse ATS win pct in more divisional games coached than Stefanski.

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Chalk Back​

Favorites On Great Run
Through the first four weeks of the regular season, favorites went 27-35-2 ATS (44% ATS), failing to cover the spread by almost 2 PPG.

Since then, favorites are 28-14-1 ATS (67%) over the last three weeks, covering the spread by 4 PPG.

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New Sheriff In Town​

Jets Favored Again
Jets haven’t closed -7 or higher vs. Patriots since Sept 12. 1999 after closing at -6.5 against them earlier this season.

2001-02 is the last time the Jets have been favored in consecutive games vs. Patriots, with 2001 the last time they were favored in both season meetings.

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Monday Mike​

New York At Night. Again.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are tough to beat at any time or place under Mike Tomlin. But at home, under the lights, especially on MNF, it’s another level. Dating back to 1992, the Steelers are 21-1 SU in home MNF games, with their only loss coming to Washington back in 2020.

Another week, another New York team in primetime at night. The Jets and Giants are now a combined 4-32 straight up playing at night in prime time since 2019. They last finished a season .500 SU or better in night games back in 2015 – they are 11-45 SU in primetime since then.

Daniel Jones is 1-15 SU and 6-10 ATS at night in his career, including 0-8 SU at home and 1-7 SU on the road at night.

 

[ozzy44]

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL​

Minnesota @ LA Rams +3, Total 48​

Rams are 5-19 SU in their last 24 games as the underdog.

Vikings are 21-4 SU in their last 25 games as the favorite although they did lose last week to Detroit.

Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games, Rams are 1-5 ATS past 6

Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against LA Rams.

Vikings are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.

OVER is 8-1 past 9 meetings @ Rams

OVER is 5-1 past 6 Vikings Thursday games

Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a Thursday.

Rams are 7-3 ATS past 10 as home dogs



Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 35-35 SU and 41-27-2 ATS (60.3%) in the last 70.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2.5 at LAR)

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 23-22 SU but 14-29-2 ATS (32.6%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 37-25 SU & 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (+2.5 vs MIN)

Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 4-20 SU and 7-17 ATS (29.2%) in their last 24, scoring just 14.7 PPG. In terms of totals, 16 of the last 22 (72.7%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
Systems Match: FADE LA RAMS (+2.5 vs MIN), also PLAY UNDER in MIN-LAR (o/u at 48)

There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 19-18 SU and 25-11-1 ATS (69.4%) record.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2.5 at LAR

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
MIN at LA	08:15 PM	LA +3.0 O 48.0	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS OCTOBER !

10/24/2024.................2 - 0 - 0................100.00%.................+ 10.00
10/21/2024.................2 - 2 - 0..................50.00%.................- 1,00
10/20/2024.................2 - 4 - 0..................33.33%.................- 12.00
10/14/2024.................0 - 2 - 0..................00.00%.................- 11.00
10/13/2024.................5 - 9 - 2..................35.71%.................- 20.00
10/10/2024.................1 - 1 - 0..................50.00%..................- 0.50
10/06/2024...............7 - 10 - 0.................41.17%..................- 20.00
10/03/2024..................0 - 2 - 0.................00.00%..................-11.00

TOTALS.....................19- 30- 2..................38.77%..................- 65.50

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SEPT.TOTALS.............48 - 46 - 2..................51.06%...................- 19.50

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack:
Best ERA’s for starting pitchers with 20+ career playoff starts:
2.51— Jon Lester (22 starts)
2.67— John Smoltz (27)
2.71— Whitey Ford (22)
2.98— Gerrit Cole (20)
3.27— Greg Maddux (30)
3.30— Tom Glavine (35)

Quote of the Day
“All of these kids that move around in the portal, none of them are pros. There are no pros in the portal. If they were pros, they wouldn’t be in the portal. They’re all college guys looking to improve.”
Houston basketball coach Kelvin Sampson

Friday’s quiz
Oklahoma City Thunder starting playing in Oklahoma in 2008-09; before that, where did the team call home?

Thursday’s quiz
In the old TV show Magnum PI, Magnum always spent the 4th of July by himself; that was the day his father passed away, when Magnum was five years old.

Wednesday’s quiz
Last two times the New York Knicks won the NBA title, they beat the Lakers in the Finals both times.

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Friday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….​

— Wednesday night, Miami Heat named their home court after longtime coach/team president Pat Riley; this is his 30th year with the Miami franchise.
Riley is 1,381-805 as an NBA coach, winning five NBA titles (4 with Lakers, one with the Heat, in 2006). He also led the Knicks to the NBA Finals in 1994.
Miami has won two NBA titles with Riley as team president and Erik Spoelstra as coach; Riley was inducted into the basketball Hall of Fame in 2008.
Coach Riley is from Schenectady, NY; he went to Linton High School, in 1992, Linton merged with Mont Pleasant HS to form Schenectady High School, which is located in the former Linton facility. Coach Riley gave the school a lot of money to help refurbish the gym/locker room. The gym at Schenectady is named after him.
Long time ago (1993-2001), I spent eight years as an assistant basketball coach at Schenectady High; I was the analytics/numbers guy, the geeky coach/scout. This was the most interesting thing I’ve ever done in my life, and one of the most fun.
I was lucky to work for great people and we had really, really good players; we won state titles in 1998 and 2001. When we won the state titles, coach Riley sent us all gifts to commemorate our efforts- I’m looking at them in my living room as I type this.
Congratulations to you Coach Riley, on one of the best careers anyone has ever had. It was an honor to spend eight years working in your gym.

— Rams 30, Vikings 20
Stafford was 25-34/279 passing, with four TD’s. (helps to have Kupp/Nacua healthy)
Rams outgained Minnesota, 386-276.
LA was 4-10 on third down, Vikings 2-7.
Rams scored 27-20-30 points in their wins, 20-10-18-19 in losses.
Rams are 6-3-1 ATS last ten games as a home underdog.
Vikings’ first two drives: 18 plays, 140 yards, 14 points.
Vikings’ last six drives: 30 plays, 125 yards, 2 FGs and a safety
Minnesota ran for only 64 yards; they were 2-7 on 3rd down.
WR Jefferson caught eight passes for 115 yards.
Minnesota is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.

— Pitt 41, Syracuse 13
Panthers are 7-0 for the first time since 1982.
Pitt scored three defensive TD’s in the first half, led 31-0 at halftime.
Syracuse ran ball for only six yards on 29 carries; they threw 5 INTs in all.

— Old Dominion 47, Georgia Southern 19
Monarchs led 30-7 at half; QB Jospeh threw 4 first half TD passes.
ODU outgained Georgia Southern, 560-416.
Monarchs ran ball 41 times for 256 yards.

— Kennesaw State 27, Liberty 24
1-6 Owls were a 27-point underdog; Liberty came into the game 5-0.
This is Kennesaw State’s first-ever win as a I-A program.
Liberty had nine penalties for 100 yards.

— Jacksonville State 42, Middle Tennessee 20
QB Huff threw for 137 yards and TD, ran for 151 yards and 2 TD’s.
Gamecocks have won four games in a row for first time since 2020.
Jax State outgained the Blue Raiders, 577-365

— There was very sad news Thursday; South Florida basketball coach Amir Abdur-Rahim passed away at age 43.
Abdur-Rahim was undergoing a medical procedure at a Tampa-area hospital when he died due to complications that arose during the procedure. He is survived by his wife and three children.
Abdur-Rahim was a rising star in coaching; he built the Kennesaw State program from the ground up, going 26-9 two years ago, making the NCAAs as a 14-seed.
He then moved on to South Florida last year, went 25-8, 16-2 in the AAC.
Very sad news. RIP, sir.

— Famous birthdays, October 25:
Dan Issel, 76
Dave Cowens, 76
Gifford Nielsen, 70
Mark Vlasic, 61
Pat Swilling, 60
Mike Harkey, 58
Terrell Lowery, 54
Pedro Martinez, 53
Juan Soto, 26

— Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey missed practice Wednesday for jury duty; he got a letter from the court and was selected as a juror for a felony case. In order to be removed from the jury, both sides and the judge would have to sign off and install an alternate juror.
Cowboys travel to San Francisco Saturday afternoon for their game against the 49ers; they return to Dallas early Monday morning.

— NBA has an in-season tournament starting November 12, kind of an admission that interest in the league is weak before Christmas.
Last year, the Lakers won the tournament; they raised a banner in their arena, but showed their true colors when they fired coach Davin Ham after a 47-35 season and a first-round exit from the playoffs.
If the in-season tournament had any meaning at all, no way does the coach get fired.

— Speaking of the Lakers, the G-League starts November 8; hopefully they’ll send Bronny James to play there, so the young man can play a lot and get the experience he needs.
Lebron/Bronny played a few minutes together the other night, becoming the first father/son to play on same team, but Bronny only played one year at USC— he isn’t as good as his dad, and likely never will be (who is???). He needs to play a lot to progress into an NBA-level player.

— Watching the Phoenix Suns should be fun this winter; 22 of their first 32 shots the other night were 3-pointers. Coach Mike Budenholzer likes a wide-open style, for to watch.

— Congrats to Atlanta Hawks radio announcer Steve Holman, who recently broadcast his 3,000th consecutive game for the Hawks.

— NC State QB Grayson McCall is retiring from football, after he had a concussion in a game earlier this month. He is 23 years old, played six years of college football. We wish him well.

— Carolina Panthers’ QB Andy Dalton got banged up in a car accident this week; he won’t start this week, when the 1-6 Panthers visit Denver.
2nd-year QB Bryce Young will start this week; Carolina lost 47-10/26-3 in the two games he started earlier this season, in Weeks 1-2.

— There are 134 I-A college football teams; Florida State is the only one that hasn’t scored more than 21 points in a game this season.