NFL
Week 7
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Trend Report
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Denver vs New Orleans
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
New England vs Jacksonville
New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Jacksonville
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston vs Green Bay
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Houston
Detroit vs Minnesota
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle vs Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Tennessee vs Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tennessee's last 12 games on the road
Tennessee is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Cincinnati vs Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Miami vs Indianapolis
Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia vs NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 11 games at home
Las Vegas vs LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Carolina vs Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
Kansas City vs San Francisco
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
San Francisco is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
NY Jets vs Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Pittsburgh is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Baltimore vs Tampa Bay
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Baltimore
LA Chargers vs Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
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Week 7
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Trend Report
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Denver vs New Orleans
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
New England vs Jacksonville
New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Jacksonville
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston vs Green Bay
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Houston
Detroit vs Minnesota
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle vs Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Tennessee vs Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tennessee's last 12 games on the road
Tennessee is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Cincinnati vs Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Miami vs Indianapolis
Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia vs NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 11 games at home
Las Vegas vs LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Carolina vs Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
Kansas City vs San Francisco
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
San Francisco is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
NY Jets vs Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Pittsburgh is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Baltimore vs Tampa Bay
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Baltimore
LA Chargers vs Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 7
Broncos (-2.5) @ Saints
Broncos (3-3)
Denver is 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in their road games TY.
Broncos outscored last five opponents 59-17 in second half.
Denver is only 20-80 on third down conversions.
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Under Payton, Denver is 3-6 ATS as a favorite.
In wins, Broncos are +4 in turnovers; in losses, minus-5.
Denver is 21-18-2 ATS in last 41 games vs NFC teams.
Broncos are 10-19-1 ATS last 30 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last two weeks, Denver opponents were 18-33 on third down.
AFC West road teams are 6-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints (2-4)
New Orleans lost its last four games, by 3-2-13-24 points.
Saints were outscored 27-0 in 2nd half of LW’s loss to Tampa Bay.
New Orleans has outscored opponents 116-76 in first half.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Saints are 4-7 ATS last 11 games as a home underdog.
Last two weeks, Saints ran ball only 36 times, for 127 yards.
Last 5+ years, New Orleans is 20-14-1 ATS coming off a loss (1-2 TY).
Rookie QB Rattler is 0-1 as an NFL starter.
Saints are 9-12-2 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points,
NFC South home teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Denver won five of last six series games.
Broncos won their last three visits to Bourbon Street.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Sean Payton was 161-97 as coach of the Saints (2006-21)
Sunday’s games
Patriots vs Jaguars (-5.5) (@ London)
Patriots (1-5)
New England lost last five games, outscored 68-33 in first half.
Last two weeks, Patriots gave up 193-192 rushing yards.
Patriots are 30-44 since Tom Brady left town.
Team total: under 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
NE is 7-19-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
Last 4 games, New England converted 14 of 53 third down plays.
Patriots were 0-4 against the spread in those games.
Patriots are 4-12 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Rookie QB Maye is 0-1 as an NFL starter.
AFC East underdogs are 1-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars (1-5)
Jaguars are 1-5; they gained 497 yards (371 PY) in their one win.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-9 ATS coming off a loss.
Last five games, Jaguars were outscored 88-35 in first half.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Jacksonville has been outscored 42-9 in last 2:00 of each half.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-11 ATS as a favorite.
QB Lawrence is 22-36 as an NFL starter.
Three of their last four games went over the total.
Jaguars ware 3-2 in their last five games in England.
AFC South favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
New England won nine of last ten series games.
This is first time since 2006 Patriots are an underdog to Jacksonville.
Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight meetings.
Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Titans @ Bills (-8.5)
Titans (1-4)
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; their win was 31-12.
Tennessee is minus-7 in turnovers, have had two punts blocked.
Titans were held under 250 TY in four of their five games.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1-2
Tennessee is 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
Titans has trailed in only one of their five games at halftime.
Tennessee was 17-15-1 ATS LY in 33 games coming off a loss.
QB Levis is 4-10 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee has averaged 5.3/5.3/4.9/4.6/3.5 yards/pass attempt.
Bills (4-2)
Short week for Bills after their tense win over the Jets Monday.
Buffalo acquired WR Cooper from Cleveland on Monday.
Bills were outgained last three games, by 191-149-34 yards.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Buffalo is 8-10-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 25-19-1 ATS in last 45 games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 72-37 as NFL starter.
Last three games, Bills converted only 11 of 38 third down plays.
Last three games, Buffalo allowed 7.8/8.5/7.2 yards/pass attempt.
AFC East teams are 3-10-1 ATS in last 14 non-divisional games.
Buffalo won four of last six series games.
Texans lost 41-7/13-12 in last two visits to Buffalo.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Texans @ Packers (-2.5)
Texans (5-1)
Texans have four wins by 6 or fewer points.
Their only loss was 34-7 at 5-0 Minnesota.
Texans converted 19 of last 40 third down plays.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
Texans are 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog
Houston is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 15-8 as an NFL starter.
Houston is 5-14-2 ATS in last 21 games vs NFC teams.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
AFC South underdogs are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Packers (4-2)
Green Bay’s two losses were 34-29/31-29.
Packers have 17 takeaways in five games (+9 turnovers)
Green Bay outscored last four foes 56-19 in second half.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
Green Bay is 6-7-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
Green Bay is 17-12-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
Packers are 16-12-1 ATS last 29 games vs AFC teams.
Green Bay is 27-16-1 ATS in last 44 home games.
Under is 37-4 in their last 11 home games.
NFC North teams are 17-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Green Bay won/covered its last three games vs Houston.
Teams split last two meetings played here; Texans’ win was in 2008.
Under is 4-1 in series games.
Eagles (-3) @ Giants
Eagles (3-2)
Four of Eagles’ five games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
Eagles are minus-6 in turnovers (8-2) this season.
Philly has led only one game at halftime (7-6 in week 2).
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Last four years, Philly is 2-9-1 ATS in NFC East road games.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 7-11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Hurts is 39-22 as an NFL starter.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 16-18-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Giants (2-4)
Giants are 0-2 at home (28-6 Vikings, 20-15 Cowboys, 17-7 Bengals)
Giants has one TD on 29 drives in their three home games.
Under is 5-1 in their games this season.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
Under Daboll, Giants are 8-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Daboll, Giants are 14-6-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Since 2018, Giants are 8-11 ATS in NFC East home games.
QB Jones is 25-41-1 as an NFL starter.
Opponents are only 24-70 on third down.
Eagles are 18-4 in last 22 games against the Giants.
Philly is 3-5 ATS (3-4 as a favorite) in last seven visits here.
Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Lions @ Vikings (-2.5)
Lions (4-1)
Lions scored 42-47 points in last two games (11 TDs on 20 drives).
Detroit has converted 26 of 54 third down plays.
Opponents have converted 16 of 54 third down plays.
Team total: under 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
Under Campbell, Lions are 21-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Lions outscored last three opponents 72-23 in first half.
Last two years, Detroit was 5-1 ATS in NFC North road games.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 16-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, Lions averaged 12.4/10.3 yards/pass attempt.
Lions have outscored opponents 24-6 in last 2:00 of each half.
Vikings (5-0)
Minnesota won/covered first five games, scoring 27.8 ppg.
Vikings have outscored opponents 86-24 in first half.
Last two years, Vikings were 1-5 ATS in NFC North home games
Team total: over 5-0
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
QB Darnold is 26-35 as an NFL starter, 5-0 with Vikings.
Minnesota is 5-4 SU/4-4-1 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
Vikings are 9-1-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Vikings are 15-10-3 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Minnesota has 13 takeaways in five games (+4 turnovers).
Detroit won four of last six meetings.
Lions lost five of last six visits to Minnesota (3-0 ATS last three).
Over is 7-1-1 in last nine series games.
Seahawks @ Falcons (-3)
Seahawks (3-3)
Seattle lost last three games, giving up 42-29-36 points.
QB’s they beat so far: Nix, Brissett, Thompson. Not great.
Seahawks turned ball over 8 times in last 4 games (minus-7 TO’s)
Team total: over 6-0
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
QB Smith is 33-40 as an NFL starter, 21-21 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 16-10-1 ATS last 27 games as a road underdog.
Seahawks are 18-15 in last 33 games coming off a loss.
Last three games, Seattle was outscored 47-20 in first half.
Seattle is 14-16-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.
NFC West underdogs are 1-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Falcons (4-2)
Atlanta won its last three games, scoring 26-36-38 points.
Falcons were held to 10-17 points in their two losses.
Falcons’ last three games went over the total.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2-1
Atlanta is 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 3-7 ATS last ten games coming off a win.
QB Cousins is 81-72-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Falcon opponents are 38-79 on third down.
NFC South home teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Seahawks won four of last six series games.
Seattle is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Atlanta.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Bengals (-6.5) @ Browns
Bengals (2-4)
Cincy is 2-4, with both wins on road, by 10 points.
Bengals scored 25+ points in four of last five games.
Last two games, Bengals scored 15 TD’s on 39 drives.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2-1
Bengals are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.
QB Burrow is 36-28-1 as an NFL starter.
Cincinnati is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Bengals are 6-8-1 ATS last 15 AFC North road games.
Browns (1-5)
Cleveland scored 17-18-15-16-13-16 points in its 1-5 start.
Browns are 15-78 on 3rd down so far, 10-16 on 4th down.
Browns have gained 230-297-217-152-215-244 yards.
Team total: under 6-0
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
Browns are 5-2-1 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
QB Watson is 38-36 as an NFL starter, 9-9 with Browns.
Cleveland is 12-4-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in last six AFC North games.
Browns have averaged 2.7/4.8/3.3/4.3/3.0/5.1 yards/pass attempt.
Browns are 9-3 SU in last 12 meetings.
Bengals are 0-6 SU/2-3-1 ATS in last six visits to Cleveland.
Over is 6-2-2 in last ten series games.
Dolphins @ Colts (-3.5)
Dolphins (2-3)
Miami allowed 17-10 points in its wins, 31-24-31 in losses.
Dolphins have already played four QB’s in their 2-3 start.
Huntley is 4-8 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 5-0
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Last four games, Dolphins have three touchdowns on 43 drives.
Miami has been outscored 74-26 in first half of games.
Miami is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
Last three games, Dolphins were 5-35 on 3rd down.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 11-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
AFC East road underdogs are 1-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts (3-3)
All six Colts games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Colts’ last three games were all decided by exactly 3 points.
Indy won three of its last four games (3-0-1 ATS)
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-3
Last three weeks, Colts converted 22-44 third down plays.
Indy is 12-11-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Flacco is 114-89 as an NFL starter, 6-10 since 2020.
Under Steichen, Colts are 3-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Just like LY, Indy is better off with its backup QB than Richardson.
AFC South home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts won seven of last nine series games.
Dolphins are 5-3 SU/7-1 ATS in last eight visits to Indianapolis.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Panthers @ Commanders (-7.5)
Panthers (1-5)
Carolina’s five losses are by 37-23-10-26-18 points.
Carolina is 2-9-1 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Panthers gave up 20+ points in first half in five of six games.
Team total: under 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
Carolina is 4-13-2 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Last three weeks, Panthers allowed 7.5/9.9/7.5 yards/pass play.
Over is 5-1 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers opponents are 36-76 on third down.
Dalton is 84-85-2 as an NFL starter, 1-4 with Carolina.
Commanders (4-2)
Commanders won/covered four of their last five games.
Washington allowed 37-30 points in their two losses.
Last five games, Commanders scored 16 TD’s, kicked 16 FG’s on 43 drives.
Team total: over 5-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Commanders are 2-0 ATS as a favorite TY (5-14 from 2018-23).
Washington converted 33 of last 64 third down plays.
Commanders are 12-18-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
Washington ran ball for 200+ yards in three of its four wins.
Over is 5-1 in Washington games this year.
Commanders won three of last four meetings.
Panthers won three of last four visits to Washington.
Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in last seven series games.
Raiders @ Rams (-7)
Raiders (2-4)
Raiders have 12 turnovers in six games (minus-10).
Las Vegas is 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 games following a loss.
Raiders’ two wins were by 3-4 points, losses by 12-14-16-19.
Team total: over 3-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
Since 2019, Raiders are 19-13 ATS as a road underdog.
Raiders are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC teams.
Opponents have converted only 22 of 73 third down plays.
QB O’Connell is 5-6 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Rams (1-4)
Rams have been outscored 68-32 in first half of games.
Even in their one win, they trailed 14-0 early on.
Under McVay, Rams are 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS coming off a bye.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Under McVay, Rams are 21-22 ATS as a home favorite.
Rams have allowed 24+ points in all five games.
LA is 7-10-2 ATS in its last 19 games vs AFC teams.
Rams outgained last two opponents, by 58-47 yards.
Three of Rams’ last four games went over the total.
Rams won three in row, six of last seven series games.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Chiefs @ 49ers (-1.5)
Chiefs (5-0)
Chiefs won their first four games, by 7-1-5-7-13 points.
Kansas City is 5-0 despite being minus-6 in turnovers.
Chiefs trailed at halftime in three of the five games.
Chiefs are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Since 2017, Kansas City is 12-4 ATS as an underdog.
QB Mahomes is 94-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in last 12 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 59-28 in second half.
KC is 8-2 SU in its last ten post-bye games.
AFC West road underdogs are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
49ers (3-3)
49ers have losses by 1-3-6 points, wins by 13-17-12 points.
49ers are 12-7 ATS last 19 games as a home favorite.
49ers scored 32-30-36 points in wins, 17-24-23 in losses.
49ers are 5-2 ATS in last seven games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 3-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1-1
49ers outscored last four opponents 73-23 in first half.
49ers were outscored 65-41 in 2nd half of those four games.
QB Purdy is 24-8 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 5-7 ATS last 12 games vs AFC teams.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.
NFC West home favorites are 3-2 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chiefs beat San Francisco 25-22 in Super Bowl last year.
Kansas City won six of last seven series games.
Chiefs lost three of last four visits to Santa Clara.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Jets (-1.5) @ Steelers
Jets (2-4)
Short week for Jets after Monday night’s loss to Buffalo
Jets lost last three games, by 1-6-3 points.
Jets scored 24-24 points in wins, 19-9-17-20 in losses.
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Jets are 2-6-1 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
Jets are 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jets are 15-19 ATS last 34 games coming off a loss.
Jets traded for WR Adams Tuesday; will that help quickly?
Rodgers is 161-89-1 as an NFL starter, 3-4 with Jets.
AFC East teams are 3-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Steelers (4-2)
Sounds like QB Wilson will be making his first Steelers start.
Wilson is 124-79-1 as an NFL starter, 17-27 since 2021.
Steelers are 12-5-2 ATS last 19 games as a home underdog.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-1
Steelers allowed 10-6-10-13 points in wins, 27-20 in losses.
Pittsburgh is 11-7-1 in its last 19 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh was held to 226-293 TY in its last two games.
Steelers are 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under is 9-5 in their last 14 home games.
NFC North teams are 12-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets won three of last four meetings.
Jets are 2-6 SU/3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Pittsburgh
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Monday’s games
Ravens (-3.5) @ Buccaneers
Ravens (4-2)
Baltimore won/covered last four games, scoring 28-35-41-30 points.
Ravens have outscored opponents 92-55 in first half.
Ravens have run ball for 205.3 yards/game.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
Ravens are 9-4 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 64-25 as an NFL starter.
Baltimore is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Ravens are 10-4 ATS in last 14 games vs NFC teams.
NFC North teams are 12-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Ravens won their first Super Bowl on this field, 24 years ago.
Buccaneers (4-2)
Buccaneers scored 33-30-51 points in last three games.
Bucs had 24 points at halftime in all three of those games.
Tampa Bay scored 13 TD’s on its last 32 drives.
Bucs are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
Since 2021, Bucs are 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Bucs are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
QB Mayfield is 46-50 as an NFL starter, 14-11 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay’s last three games went over the total.
Bucs are 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
NFC South home teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Baltimore won last five series games (3-0-2 ATS)
Ravens won last three trips to Tampa by combined 102-39 (34-13 average)
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Chargers (-2.5) @ Cardinals
Chargers (3-2)
Chargers scored 22-26-23 points in wins, 10-10 in losses.
Last three games, Chargers were outscored 39-3 in 2nd half.
Bolts are 14-17-1 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1-1
Chargers are 7-3-2 ATS last 12 games as road favorites.
Chargers are 10-7-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs NFC teams.
Chargers are 3-11 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less points.
QB Herbert is 33-35 as an NFL starter.
Under is 4-1 in their first five games.
AFC West road teams are 6-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cardinals (2-4)
Arizona lost three of last four games, scoring 13-14-13 in losses.
Cardinals are 16-12 ATS last 28 games coming off a loss.
In its two wins, Arizona outscored foes 31-7 in second half.
Team total: over 3-3
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
QB Murray is 30-41-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 7-5 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Last four games, Arizona converted 12-40 on third down (14-24 first two games).
Last four games, opponents are 28-47 on third down.
Over is 4-2 in Arizona games this year.
NFC West underdogs are 1-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers won five of last six series games.
Bolts split last two visits here, both decided by a single point.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 7
Broncos (-2.5) @ Saints
Broncos (3-3)
Denver is 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in their road games TY.
Broncos outscored last five opponents 59-17 in second half.
Denver is only 20-80 on third down conversions.
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Under Payton, Denver is 3-6 ATS as a favorite.
In wins, Broncos are +4 in turnovers; in losses, minus-5.
Denver is 21-18-2 ATS in last 41 games vs NFC teams.
Broncos are 10-19-1 ATS last 30 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last two weeks, Denver opponents were 18-33 on third down.
AFC West road teams are 6-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints (2-4)
New Orleans lost its last four games, by 3-2-13-24 points.
Saints were outscored 27-0 in 2nd half of LW’s loss to Tampa Bay.
New Orleans has outscored opponents 116-76 in first half.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Saints are 4-7 ATS last 11 games as a home underdog.
Last two weeks, Saints ran ball only 36 times, for 127 yards.
Last 5+ years, New Orleans is 20-14-1 ATS coming off a loss (1-2 TY).
Rookie QB Rattler is 0-1 as an NFL starter.
Saints are 9-12-2 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points,
NFC South home teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Denver won five of last six series games.
Broncos won their last three visits to Bourbon Street.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Sean Payton was 161-97 as coach of the Saints (2006-21)
Sunday’s games
Patriots vs Jaguars (-5.5) (@ London)
Patriots (1-5)
New England lost last five games, outscored 68-33 in first half.
Last two weeks, Patriots gave up 193-192 rushing yards.
Patriots are 30-44 since Tom Brady left town.
Team total: under 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
NE is 7-19-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
Last 4 games, New England converted 14 of 53 third down plays.
Patriots were 0-4 against the spread in those games.
Patriots are 4-12 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Rookie QB Maye is 0-1 as an NFL starter.
AFC East underdogs are 1-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars (1-5)
Jaguars are 1-5; they gained 497 yards (371 PY) in their one win.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-9 ATS coming off a loss.
Last five games, Jaguars were outscored 88-35 in first half.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Jacksonville has been outscored 42-9 in last 2:00 of each half.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-11 ATS as a favorite.
QB Lawrence is 22-36 as an NFL starter.
Three of their last four games went over the total.
Jaguars ware 3-2 in their last five games in England.
AFC South favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
New England won nine of last ten series games.
This is first time since 2006 Patriots are an underdog to Jacksonville.
Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight meetings.
Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Titans @ Bills (-8.5)
Titans (1-4)
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; their win was 31-12.
Tennessee is minus-7 in turnovers, have had two punts blocked.
Titans were held under 250 TY in four of their five games.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1-2
Tennessee is 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
Titans has trailed in only one of their five games at halftime.
Tennessee was 17-15-1 ATS LY in 33 games coming off a loss.
QB Levis is 4-10 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee has averaged 5.3/5.3/4.9/4.6/3.5 yards/pass attempt.
Bills (4-2)
Short week for Bills after their tense win over the Jets Monday.
Buffalo acquired WR Cooper from Cleveland on Monday.
Bills were outgained last three games, by 191-149-34 yards.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Buffalo is 8-10-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 25-19-1 ATS in last 45 games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 72-37 as NFL starter.
Last three games, Bills converted only 11 of 38 third down plays.
Last three games, Buffalo allowed 7.8/8.5/7.2 yards/pass attempt.
AFC East teams are 3-10-1 ATS in last 14 non-divisional games.
Buffalo won four of last six series games.
Texans lost 41-7/13-12 in last two visits to Buffalo.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Texans @ Packers (-2.5)
Texans (5-1)
Texans have four wins by 6 or fewer points.
Their only loss was 34-7 at 5-0 Minnesota.
Texans converted 19 of last 40 third down plays.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
Texans are 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog
Houston is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 15-8 as an NFL starter.
Houston is 5-14-2 ATS in last 21 games vs NFC teams.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
AFC South underdogs are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Packers (4-2)
Green Bay’s two losses were 34-29/31-29.
Packers have 17 takeaways in five games (+9 turnovers)
Green Bay outscored last four foes 56-19 in second half.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
Green Bay is 6-7-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
Green Bay is 17-12-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
Packers are 16-12-1 ATS last 29 games vs AFC teams.
Green Bay is 27-16-1 ATS in last 44 home games.
Under is 37-4 in their last 11 home games.
NFC North teams are 17-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Green Bay won/covered its last three games vs Houston.
Teams split last two meetings played here; Texans’ win was in 2008.
Under is 4-1 in series games.
Eagles (-3) @ Giants
Eagles (3-2)
Four of Eagles’ five games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
Eagles are minus-6 in turnovers (8-2) this season.
Philly has led only one game at halftime (7-6 in week 2).
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Last four years, Philly is 2-9-1 ATS in NFC East road games.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 7-11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Hurts is 39-22 as an NFL starter.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 16-18-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Giants (2-4)
Giants are 0-2 at home (28-6 Vikings, 20-15 Cowboys, 17-7 Bengals)
Giants has one TD on 29 drives in their three home games.
Under is 5-1 in their games this season.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
Under Daboll, Giants are 8-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Daboll, Giants are 14-6-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Since 2018, Giants are 8-11 ATS in NFC East home games.
QB Jones is 25-41-1 as an NFL starter.
Opponents are only 24-70 on third down.
Eagles are 18-4 in last 22 games against the Giants.
Philly is 3-5 ATS (3-4 as a favorite) in last seven visits here.
Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Lions @ Vikings (-2.5)
Lions (4-1)
Lions scored 42-47 points in last two games (11 TDs on 20 drives).
Detroit has converted 26 of 54 third down plays.
Opponents have converted 16 of 54 third down plays.
Team total: under 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
Under Campbell, Lions are 21-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Lions outscored last three opponents 72-23 in first half.
Last two years, Detroit was 5-1 ATS in NFC North road games.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 16-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, Lions averaged 12.4/10.3 yards/pass attempt.
Lions have outscored opponents 24-6 in last 2:00 of each half.
Vikings (5-0)
Minnesota won/covered first five games, scoring 27.8 ppg.
Vikings have outscored opponents 86-24 in first half.
Last two years, Vikings were 1-5 ATS in NFC North home games
Team total: over 5-0
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
QB Darnold is 26-35 as an NFL starter, 5-0 with Vikings.
Minnesota is 5-4 SU/4-4-1 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
Vikings are 9-1-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Vikings are 15-10-3 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Minnesota has 13 takeaways in five games (+4 turnovers).
Detroit won four of last six meetings.
Lions lost five of last six visits to Minnesota (3-0 ATS last three).
Over is 7-1-1 in last nine series games.
Seahawks @ Falcons (-3)
Seahawks (3-3)
Seattle lost last three games, giving up 42-29-36 points.
QB’s they beat so far: Nix, Brissett, Thompson. Not great.
Seahawks turned ball over 8 times in last 4 games (minus-7 TO’s)
Team total: over 6-0
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
QB Smith is 33-40 as an NFL starter, 21-21 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 16-10-1 ATS last 27 games as a road underdog.
Seahawks are 18-15 in last 33 games coming off a loss.
Last three games, Seattle was outscored 47-20 in first half.
Seattle is 14-16-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.
NFC West underdogs are 1-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Falcons (4-2)
Atlanta won its last three games, scoring 26-36-38 points.
Falcons were held to 10-17 points in their two losses.
Falcons’ last three games went over the total.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2-1
Atlanta is 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 3-7 ATS last ten games coming off a win.
QB Cousins is 81-72-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Falcon opponents are 38-79 on third down.
NFC South home teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Seahawks won four of last six series games.
Seattle is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Atlanta.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Bengals (-6.5) @ Browns
Bengals (2-4)
Cincy is 2-4, with both wins on road, by 10 points.
Bengals scored 25+ points in four of last five games.
Last two games, Bengals scored 15 TD’s on 39 drives.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2-1
Bengals are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.
QB Burrow is 36-28-1 as an NFL starter.
Cincinnati is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Bengals are 6-8-1 ATS last 15 AFC North road games.
Browns (1-5)
Cleveland scored 17-18-15-16-13-16 points in its 1-5 start.
Browns are 15-78 on 3rd down so far, 10-16 on 4th down.
Browns have gained 230-297-217-152-215-244 yards.
Team total: under 6-0
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
Browns are 5-2-1 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
QB Watson is 38-36 as an NFL starter, 9-9 with Browns.
Cleveland is 12-4-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in last six AFC North games.
Browns have averaged 2.7/4.8/3.3/4.3/3.0/5.1 yards/pass attempt.
Browns are 9-3 SU in last 12 meetings.
Bengals are 0-6 SU/2-3-1 ATS in last six visits to Cleveland.
Over is 6-2-2 in last ten series games.
Dolphins @ Colts (-3.5)
Dolphins (2-3)
Miami allowed 17-10 points in its wins, 31-24-31 in losses.
Dolphins have already played four QB’s in their 2-3 start.
Huntley is 4-8 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 5-0
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Last four games, Dolphins have three touchdowns on 43 drives.
Miami has been outscored 74-26 in first half of games.
Miami is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
Last three games, Dolphins were 5-35 on 3rd down.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 11-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
AFC East road underdogs are 1-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts (3-3)
All six Colts games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Colts’ last three games were all decided by exactly 3 points.
Indy won three of its last four games (3-0-1 ATS)
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-3
Last three weeks, Colts converted 22-44 third down plays.
Indy is 12-11-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Flacco is 114-89 as an NFL starter, 6-10 since 2020.
Under Steichen, Colts are 3-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Just like LY, Indy is better off with its backup QB than Richardson.
AFC South home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts won seven of last nine series games.
Dolphins are 5-3 SU/7-1 ATS in last eight visits to Indianapolis.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Panthers @ Commanders (-7.5)
Panthers (1-5)
Carolina’s five losses are by 37-23-10-26-18 points.
Carolina is 2-9-1 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Panthers gave up 20+ points in first half in five of six games.
Team total: under 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
Carolina is 4-13-2 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Last three weeks, Panthers allowed 7.5/9.9/7.5 yards/pass play.
Over is 5-1 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers opponents are 36-76 on third down.
Dalton is 84-85-2 as an NFL starter, 1-4 with Carolina.
Commanders (4-2)
Commanders won/covered four of their last five games.
Washington allowed 37-30 points in their two losses.
Last five games, Commanders scored 16 TD’s, kicked 16 FG’s on 43 drives.
Team total: over 5-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Commanders are 2-0 ATS as a favorite TY (5-14 from 2018-23).
Washington converted 33 of last 64 third down plays.
Commanders are 12-18-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
Washington ran ball for 200+ yards in three of its four wins.
Over is 5-1 in Washington games this year.
Commanders won three of last four meetings.
Panthers won three of last four visits to Washington.
Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in last seven series games.
Raiders @ Rams (-7)
Raiders (2-4)
Raiders have 12 turnovers in six games (minus-10).
Las Vegas is 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 games following a loss.
Raiders’ two wins were by 3-4 points, losses by 12-14-16-19.
Team total: over 3-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
Since 2019, Raiders are 19-13 ATS as a road underdog.
Raiders are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC teams.
Opponents have converted only 22 of 73 third down plays.
QB O’Connell is 5-6 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Rams (1-4)
Rams have been outscored 68-32 in first half of games.
Even in their one win, they trailed 14-0 early on.
Under McVay, Rams are 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS coming off a bye.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Under McVay, Rams are 21-22 ATS as a home favorite.
Rams have allowed 24+ points in all five games.
LA is 7-10-2 ATS in its last 19 games vs AFC teams.
Rams outgained last two opponents, by 58-47 yards.
Three of Rams’ last four games went over the total.
Rams won three in row, six of last seven series games.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Chiefs @ 49ers (-1.5)
Chiefs (5-0)
Chiefs won their first four games, by 7-1-5-7-13 points.
Kansas City is 5-0 despite being minus-6 in turnovers.
Chiefs trailed at halftime in three of the five games.
Chiefs are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Since 2017, Kansas City is 12-4 ATS as an underdog.
QB Mahomes is 94-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in last 12 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 59-28 in second half.
KC is 8-2 SU in its last ten post-bye games.
AFC West road underdogs are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
49ers (3-3)
49ers have losses by 1-3-6 points, wins by 13-17-12 points.
49ers are 12-7 ATS last 19 games as a home favorite.
49ers scored 32-30-36 points in wins, 17-24-23 in losses.
49ers are 5-2 ATS in last seven games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 3-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1-1
49ers outscored last four opponents 73-23 in first half.
49ers were outscored 65-41 in 2nd half of those four games.
QB Purdy is 24-8 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 5-7 ATS last 12 games vs AFC teams.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.
NFC West home favorites are 3-2 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chiefs beat San Francisco 25-22 in Super Bowl last year.
Kansas City won six of last seven series games.
Chiefs lost three of last four visits to Santa Clara.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Jets (-1.5) @ Steelers
Jets (2-4)
Short week for Jets after Monday night’s loss to Buffalo
Jets lost last three games, by 1-6-3 points.
Jets scored 24-24 points in wins, 19-9-17-20 in losses.
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Jets are 2-6-1 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
Jets are 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jets are 15-19 ATS last 34 games coming off a loss.
Jets traded for WR Adams Tuesday; will that help quickly?
Rodgers is 161-89-1 as an NFL starter, 3-4 with Jets.
AFC East teams are 3-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Steelers (4-2)
Sounds like QB Wilson will be making his first Steelers start.
Wilson is 124-79-1 as an NFL starter, 17-27 since 2021.
Steelers are 12-5-2 ATS last 19 games as a home underdog.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-1
Steelers allowed 10-6-10-13 points in wins, 27-20 in losses.
Pittsburgh is 11-7-1 in its last 19 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh was held to 226-293 TY in its last two games.
Steelers are 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under is 9-5 in their last 14 home games.
NFC North teams are 12-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets won three of last four meetings.
Jets are 2-6 SU/3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Pittsburgh
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Monday’s games
Ravens (-3.5) @ Buccaneers
Ravens (4-2)
Baltimore won/covered last four games, scoring 28-35-41-30 points.
Ravens have outscored opponents 92-55 in first half.
Ravens have run ball for 205.3 yards/game.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
Ravens are 9-4 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 64-25 as an NFL starter.
Baltimore is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Ravens are 10-4 ATS in last 14 games vs NFC teams.
NFC North teams are 12-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Ravens won their first Super Bowl on this field, 24 years ago.
Buccaneers (4-2)
Buccaneers scored 33-30-51 points in last three games.
Bucs had 24 points at halftime in all three of those games.
Tampa Bay scored 13 TD’s on its last 32 drives.
Bucs are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
Since 2021, Bucs are 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Bucs are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
QB Mayfield is 46-50 as an NFL starter, 14-11 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay’s last three games went over the total.
Bucs are 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
NFC South home teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Baltimore won last five series games (3-0-2 ATS)
Ravens won last three trips to Tampa by combined 102-39 (34-13 average)
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Chargers (-2.5) @ Cardinals
Chargers (3-2)
Chargers scored 22-26-23 points in wins, 10-10 in losses.
Last three games, Chargers were outscored 39-3 in 2nd half.
Bolts are 14-17-1 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1-1
Chargers are 7-3-2 ATS last 12 games as road favorites.
Chargers are 10-7-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs NFC teams.
Chargers are 3-11 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less points.
QB Herbert is 33-35 as an NFL starter.
Under is 4-1 in their first five games.
AFC West road teams are 6-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cardinals (2-4)
Arizona lost three of last four games, scoring 13-14-13 in losses.
Cardinals are 16-12 ATS last 28 games coming off a loss.
In its two wins, Arizona outscored foes 31-7 in second half.
Team total: over 3-3
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
QB Murray is 30-41-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 7-5 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Last four games, Arizona converted 12-40 on third down (14-24 first two games).
Last four games, opponents are 28-47 on third down.
Over is 4-2 in Arizona games this year.
NFC West underdogs are 1-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers won five of last six series games.
Bolts split last two visits here, both decided by a single point.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Armadillo Sports
Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting Week 7 NFL spreads:
— Dolphins @ Indianapolis (-3.5)
— Panthers @ Washington (-7.5)
— Chiefs @ San Francisco (-1.5)
— Jets (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh
— Ravens (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
— Chargers (-2.5) @ Arizona
Quote of the Day
“It’s just funny how things change, where there was a lot of concern about Shohei not being able to get hits with the runners in scoring position — and now we’re all trying to find ways … to get guys on base so he can hit, right? I kind of find that comical, a little bit.”
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts
Wednesday’s quiz
How many NFL teams have not won a Super Bowl?
Tuesday’s quiz
In the football movie Any Given Sunday, where Al Pacino coaches the Miami Sharks, Cameron Diaz plays the owner of the Sharks.
Monday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.
*********************************************
Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings, and Big X basketball notes…….
— Couple of well-known receivers got traded Tuesday:
Jets acquired Davante Adams from Las Vegas, sending a 3rd round pick to the Raiders, a pick that could become a 2nd round pick if the Adams/Jets did really well the rest of this season. Move saves the Raiders $29.6M in dead money on next year’s salary cap.
Cleveland Browns sent Amari Cooper to Buffalo, also for a 3rd round draft pick; Cooper had 53 targets with Cleveland, but caught only 24 of those passes.
— Sounds like Russell Wilson is going to get his first start at QB for Pittsburgh Sunday night, when Steelers host the Jets. Steelers are 4-2 with Justin Fields playing QB in all six games, but they were held under 300 total yards the last two weeks, and Wilson is healthier now.
— Over their last three games, LA Chargers have been outscored 39-3 in the second half.
— New York 6, Cleveland 3
Cleveland P Bibee allowed three runs, got only four outs.
Aaron Judge hit a 2-run home run.
New York leads best-of-7 series, 2-0
— 38.8% of major league pitchers this year have had Tommy John surgery, roughly three of every eight pitchers.
— South Alabama 25, Troy 9
South Alabama led 19-3 at halftime.
Jaguars outgained 1-6 Troy, 318-172.
Troy threw 3 INT’s, averaged only 3.8 yards/pass.
— Middle Tennessee 14, Kennesaw State 5
Blue Raiders ran a punt back 61 yards for a TD.
MTSU outgained the Owls, 284-234.
Kennesaw State is 0-6, in their first year at the I-A level.
Famous birthdays, October 16th:
Timothy Robbins, 66
John Mengelt, 75
Kevin McReynolds, 65
Adrian Murrell, 54
Kordell Stewart, 52
Jonathan Schoop, 33
Bryce Harper, 32
John Wolford, 29
Notes on Big X basketball teams:
— Arizona
Three years under Tommy Lloyd, they’re 88-20, 47-13 in Big X, 4-3 in NCAA’s
In those three years, Wildcats ranked #7-10-11 in the country on offense
— Arizona State
Last four years, Sun Devils were 62-62, 36-41 in Pac-12.
Last three years, ASU ranked #308-275-331 in 3-point FG%.
— Baylor
Bears won national title in 2021; since then, they’re 74-29, 36-18 in Big X.
Last three years, Baylor went WL in NCAA’s all three years, |
Last five years, Baylor was a top 20 offense all five years.
— Brigham Young
BYU hasn’t won an NCAA Tourney game since a play-in game in 2012.
In five years at BYU, Mark Pope was 110-52, 49-29 in WCC, 0-2 in NCAAs.
Pope has moved on to coach Kentucky.
— Central Florida
Last five years, UCF is 39-51 in conference games.
Last four years, Knights ranked #246 or worse in 2-point %age.
UCF’s last NCAA appearance was 2019.
— Cincinnati
Bearcats haven’t made NCAAs since Mick Cronin was coach in 2019
Three years under Wes Miller: 63-43, 25-29 in conference games.
— Colorado
Made NCAA’s twice in last four years.
Last six years, Buffs were 67-49 in Pac-12 games.
Boyle is 3-3 in first round NCAA Tourney games, 0-3 in second round.
— Houston
Last four years, they’re 61-10 in conference games, 11-4 in NCAA Tourney.
Went 32-5, 15-3 last year, their first year in Big X
Last four years, Houston has been a top 10 defensive team.
— Iowa State
In three years under Otzelberger, made NCAA’s last three years, going 4-3 in tourney.
Two years before Otzelberger got there, Cyclones were 5-31 in Big X games.
Iowa State has been a top 8 defensive team the last three years.
— Kansas
Jayhawks won national title is 2022.
Last five years, Kansas is 1-4 in second round of NCAA’s.
Last time Kansas lost a first round NCAA game: 2006.
LY, Jayhawks were 10-8 in Big X, their worst conference record since at least 1997.
— Kansas State
K-State made NCAA’s once in last four years (got to Elite 8 in 2023).
Wildcats turned ball over 21.7% of time LY (#345)
— Oklahoma State
Steve Lutz is new coach (22-12 @ Western Kentucky, 44-23 @ A&M-Corpus Christi)
Last three years, Cowboys were 20-34 in Big X games
Last three years, Cowboys ranked #293-320-332 in turnover %age
— TCU
Last three years, TCU was 64-39, 26-28 in Big X, 2-3 in NCAA’s
Before 2022, Horned Frogs had been in NCAAs once since 1998.
Last three years, TCU ranked #44-23-13 in defense.
— Texas Tech
Tech has been in five of last six NCAA’s, but with 3 different coaches.
Red Raiders lost national title game in 2019.
LY, Tech was 23-11, 11-7 in Big X, their first year under McCasland.
— Utah
Utes last made the NCAA Tournament in 2016.
Utah picked up the pace LY; they were #57 in tempo LY, #237 the year before.l
— West Virginia
DeVries is Mountaineers’ third head coach in three years.
DeVries got Drake to the NCAA’s three of last four years.
Last three years, West Virginia was 15-39 in Big X games.
Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting Week 7 NFL spreads:
— Dolphins @ Indianapolis (-3.5)
— Panthers @ Washington (-7.5)
— Chiefs @ San Francisco (-1.5)
— Jets (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh
— Ravens (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
— Chargers (-2.5) @ Arizona
Quote of the Day
“It’s just funny how things change, where there was a lot of concern about Shohei not being able to get hits with the runners in scoring position — and now we’re all trying to find ways … to get guys on base so he can hit, right? I kind of find that comical, a little bit.”
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts
Wednesday’s quiz
How many NFL teams have not won a Super Bowl?
Tuesday’s quiz
In the football movie Any Given Sunday, where Al Pacino coaches the Miami Sharks, Cameron Diaz plays the owner of the Sharks.
Monday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.
*********************************************
Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings, and Big X basketball notes…….
— Couple of well-known receivers got traded Tuesday:
Jets acquired Davante Adams from Las Vegas, sending a 3rd round pick to the Raiders, a pick that could become a 2nd round pick if the Adams/Jets did really well the rest of this season. Move saves the Raiders $29.6M in dead money on next year’s salary cap.
Cleveland Browns sent Amari Cooper to Buffalo, also for a 3rd round draft pick; Cooper had 53 targets with Cleveland, but caught only 24 of those passes.
— Sounds like Russell Wilson is going to get his first start at QB for Pittsburgh Sunday night, when Steelers host the Jets. Steelers are 4-2 with Justin Fields playing QB in all six games, but they were held under 300 total yards the last two weeks, and Wilson is healthier now.
— Over their last three games, LA Chargers have been outscored 39-3 in the second half.
— New York 6, Cleveland 3
Cleveland P Bibee allowed three runs, got only four outs.
Aaron Judge hit a 2-run home run.
New York leads best-of-7 series, 2-0
— 38.8% of major league pitchers this year have had Tommy John surgery, roughly three of every eight pitchers.
— South Alabama 25, Troy 9
South Alabama led 19-3 at halftime.
Jaguars outgained 1-6 Troy, 318-172.
Troy threw 3 INT’s, averaged only 3.8 yards/pass.
— Middle Tennessee 14, Kennesaw State 5
Blue Raiders ran a punt back 61 yards for a TD.
MTSU outgained the Owls, 284-234.
Kennesaw State is 0-6, in their first year at the I-A level.
Famous birthdays, October 16th:
Timothy Robbins, 66
John Mengelt, 75
Kevin McReynolds, 65
Adrian Murrell, 54
Kordell Stewart, 52
Jonathan Schoop, 33
Bryce Harper, 32
John Wolford, 29
Notes on Big X basketball teams:
— Arizona
Three years under Tommy Lloyd, they’re 88-20, 47-13 in Big X, 4-3 in NCAA’s
In those three years, Wildcats ranked #7-10-11 in the country on offense
— Arizona State
Last four years, Sun Devils were 62-62, 36-41 in Pac-12.
Last three years, ASU ranked #308-275-331 in 3-point FG%.
— Baylor
Bears won national title in 2021; since then, they’re 74-29, 36-18 in Big X.
Last three years, Baylor went WL in NCAA’s all three years, |
Last five years, Baylor was a top 20 offense all five years.
— Brigham Young
BYU hasn’t won an NCAA Tourney game since a play-in game in 2012.
In five years at BYU, Mark Pope was 110-52, 49-29 in WCC, 0-2 in NCAAs.
Pope has moved on to coach Kentucky.
— Central Florida
Last five years, UCF is 39-51 in conference games.
Last four years, Knights ranked #246 or worse in 2-point %age.
UCF’s last NCAA appearance was 2019.
— Cincinnati
Bearcats haven’t made NCAAs since Mick Cronin was coach in 2019
Three years under Wes Miller: 63-43, 25-29 in conference games.
— Colorado
Made NCAA’s twice in last four years.
Last six years, Buffs were 67-49 in Pac-12 games.
Boyle is 3-3 in first round NCAA Tourney games, 0-3 in second round.
— Houston
Last four years, they’re 61-10 in conference games, 11-4 in NCAA Tourney.
Went 32-5, 15-3 last year, their first year in Big X
Last four years, Houston has been a top 10 defensive team.
— Iowa State
In three years under Otzelberger, made NCAA’s last three years, going 4-3 in tourney.
Two years before Otzelberger got there, Cyclones were 5-31 in Big X games.
Iowa State has been a top 8 defensive team the last three years.
— Kansas
Jayhawks won national title is 2022.
Last five years, Kansas is 1-4 in second round of NCAA’s.
Last time Kansas lost a first round NCAA game: 2006.
LY, Jayhawks were 10-8 in Big X, their worst conference record since at least 1997.
— Kansas State
K-State made NCAA’s once in last four years (got to Elite 8 in 2023).
Wildcats turned ball over 21.7% of time LY (#345)
— Oklahoma State
Steve Lutz is new coach (22-12 @ Western Kentucky, 44-23 @ A&M-Corpus Christi)
Last three years, Cowboys were 20-34 in Big X games
Last three years, Cowboys ranked #293-320-332 in turnover %age
— TCU
Last three years, TCU was 64-39, 26-28 in Big X, 2-3 in NCAA’s
Before 2022, Horned Frogs had been in NCAAs once since 1998.
Last three years, TCU ranked #44-23-13 in defense.
— Texas Tech
Tech has been in five of last six NCAA’s, but with 3 different coaches.
Red Raiders lost national title game in 2019.
LY, Tech was 23-11, 11-7 in Big X, their first year under McCasland.
— Utah
Utes last made the NCAA Tournament in 2016.
Utah picked up the pace LY; they were #57 in tempo LY, #237 the year before.l
— West Virginia
DeVries is Mountaineers’ third head coach in three years.
DeVries got Drake to the NCAA’s three of last four years.
Last three years, West Virginia was 15-39 in Big X games.
Armadillo Sports
Thursday’s 6-pack:
Highest paid college football coaches:
$13M— Kirby Smart, Georgia
$11,132,775— Dabo Swinney, Clemson
$10,600,000— Steve Sarkisian, Texas
$10,043,418— Lincoln Riley, USC
$10,021,250— Ryan Day, Ohio State
$10M— Mike Norvell, Florida State/Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
Quote of the Day
“I’m telling you, he is not as good as you think- we need to trade him before people find out.”
Washington Redskins coach Mike Shanahan, talking to Washington owner Daniel Snyder about QB Robert Griffin III after the 2012 season, when Griffin won Rookie of the Year.
Thursday’s quiz
In the TV show The West Wing, what actor played the Vice President?
Wednesday’s quiz
12 NFL teams haven’t won a Super Bowl yet.
Tuesday’s quiz
In the football movie Any Given Sunday, where Al Pacino coaches the Miami Sharks, Cameron Diaz plays the owner of the Sharks.
***********************************************************
Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..
— Dodgers 8, Mets 0
Walker Buehler threw 4 scoreless IP.
Hernandez, Muncy, Ohtani all homered.
Dodgers lead best-of-7 series, 2-1.
— Western Kentucky 31, Sam Houston 14
QB Veltkamp threw for 281 yards, three TD’s.
WKU outscored Sam Houston 14-0 in second half.
Hilltoppers were 11-18 on 3rd down, Sam Houston 6-15.
Both teams are 5-2.
— Texas-El Paso 30, Florida International 21
Miners outscored FIU 10-0 in fourth quarter.
UTEP knocked out two QB’s; FIU’s #3 QB threw 2 INTs.
Miners get first win in seven games; they outgained FIU 372-287.
— New Mexico State 33, Louisiana Tech 30 OT
State tied game, scoring a TD with 1:41 left in regulation.
Tech had a 26-yard FG blocked on last play of regulation.
Tech was 11-23 on third down, Aggies 8-15.
This was New Mexico State’s first OT game since 2017.
— Michigan State won the college basketball national title in 2000; that is the last time a Big 18 team won a national championship, kind of hard to believe.
Since then, national titles won by league:
8— ACC, Big East
3— Big X, SEC
1— American
— Joel Embiid just signed a 3-year, $192.9M contract extension with the 76ers, which works out to $784,146 per regular season game.
Embiid came out recently and said he won’t play on back/back nights this year. 76ers have 15 back/backs this year, which means the most games Embiid will play this season is 67.
At $784,146.34 per game, that works out to $11,762,195 Embiid will get paid, for nothing. Of course, Philadelphia pays him for what he’ll do in the playoffs, but still……..
— This summer, I traded for Padres 1B Luis Arraez for my fantasy team; ;he hit .317 in August, .340 in September, but turns out he had a torn ligament in his thumb— he had it operated on this week.
Watching him bat, it looked like he was hurt; he would re-coil after some swings, they took him out of some games early, but he still got lot of hits— thought I was imagining things.
Hopefully he’ll be good to go next spring.
— Red Sox OF Masataka Yoshida is recovering from surgery to fix the labrum in his right shoulder; Yoshida hit .280 this year but only played in 108 games- he hit .289 last year, in 140 games.
— Hurricane Milton shredded the Tropicana Field roof, where the Tampa Bay Rays call home; the stadium isn’t expected to be ready for the start of next season.
Rays are moving into a new stadium in St Petersburg in 2028; the team said “there are more questions than answers” at this point, with the 2025 regular season 162 days away.
— Famous birthdays, October 17th:
Michael McKean, 77
George Wendt, 76
Mike Bratz, 69
Jay Humphries, 62
Danny Ferry, 58
John Mabry, 54
Willie Snead, 32
Myles Straw, 30
— Dallas Cowboys have allowed 415+ total yards in their last five home games, the longest-such streak in the NFL since the 2012 Saints.
— Georgia Bulldogs are an underdog at Texas Saturday, which will end a streak that has seem the Dawgs favored in 49 consecutive games.
— Word of the Day: Kerfuffle- a disturbance or commotion typically caused by a dispute or conflict.
— Tom Brady now owns a piece of the Las Vegas Raiders; if he owns 5% of the team, whose valuation is $6.7B, then his piece is worth $335M. Brady is also obviously a TV analyst now; there are rules he has to follow:
Brady isn’t allowed in other teams’ practice facilities.
He isn’t allowed to watch other teams practice.
He isn’t allowed to go to broadcast production meetings, awkward for a TV analyst.
He can’t publicly criticize game officials or other teams.
Interesting to see how this all turns out.
— In best-of-7 baseball playoff series, teams that took na 2-0 series lead have won 76 of 91 series (84%). Under the current 2-3-2 format, teams winning the first two games at home have won the series 44 of 55 times (80%).
— People gamble on everything these days; there are even Bronny James props for the NBA season, when there is no guarantee how much the young man will even play this year:
-110- James scoring 15+ points in any regular season game
+120- James making 3+ 3-pointers in any regular season game
+550- James making 4+ 3-pointers in any regular season game
+800- James scoring 20+ points in any regular season game.
+1200- James making 5+ 3-pointers in any regular season game
— Things have changed a lot in baseball; back on June 14, 1974, Red Sox played the Angels in Anaheim, Luis Tiant vs Nolan Ryan.
Tiant threw 14.1 innings, threw 280 pitches.
Ryan threw 325 pitches in 13 innings.
Angels won 4-3 in 15 innings.
Unusual for a pitcher to throw 100 pitches in a start now.
Thursday’s 6-pack:
Highest paid college football coaches:
$13M— Kirby Smart, Georgia
$11,132,775— Dabo Swinney, Clemson
$10,600,000— Steve Sarkisian, Texas
$10,043,418— Lincoln Riley, USC
$10,021,250— Ryan Day, Ohio State
$10M— Mike Norvell, Florida State/Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
Quote of the Day
“I’m telling you, he is not as good as you think- we need to trade him before people find out.”
Washington Redskins coach Mike Shanahan, talking to Washington owner Daniel Snyder about QB Robert Griffin III after the 2012 season, when Griffin won Rookie of the Year.
Thursday’s quiz
In the TV show The West Wing, what actor played the Vice President?
Wednesday’s quiz
12 NFL teams haven’t won a Super Bowl yet.
Tuesday’s quiz
In the football movie Any Given Sunday, where Al Pacino coaches the Miami Sharks, Cameron Diaz plays the owner of the Sharks.
***********************************************************
Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..
— Dodgers 8, Mets 0
Walker Buehler threw 4 scoreless IP.
Hernandez, Muncy, Ohtani all homered.
Dodgers lead best-of-7 series, 2-1.
— Western Kentucky 31, Sam Houston 14
QB Veltkamp threw for 281 yards, three TD’s.
WKU outscored Sam Houston 14-0 in second half.
Hilltoppers were 11-18 on 3rd down, Sam Houston 6-15.
Both teams are 5-2.
— Texas-El Paso 30, Florida International 21
Miners outscored FIU 10-0 in fourth quarter.
UTEP knocked out two QB’s; FIU’s #3 QB threw 2 INTs.
Miners get first win in seven games; they outgained FIU 372-287.
— New Mexico State 33, Louisiana Tech 30 OT
State tied game, scoring a TD with 1:41 left in regulation.
Tech had a 26-yard FG blocked on last play of regulation.
Tech was 11-23 on third down, Aggies 8-15.
This was New Mexico State’s first OT game since 2017.
— Michigan State won the college basketball national title in 2000; that is the last time a Big 18 team won a national championship, kind of hard to believe.
Since then, national titles won by league:
8— ACC, Big East
3— Big X, SEC
1— American
— Joel Embiid just signed a 3-year, $192.9M contract extension with the 76ers, which works out to $784,146 per regular season game.
Embiid came out recently and said he won’t play on back/back nights this year. 76ers have 15 back/backs this year, which means the most games Embiid will play this season is 67.
At $784,146.34 per game, that works out to $11,762,195 Embiid will get paid, for nothing. Of course, Philadelphia pays him for what he’ll do in the playoffs, but still……..
— This summer, I traded for Padres 1B Luis Arraez for my fantasy team; ;he hit .317 in August, .340 in September, but turns out he had a torn ligament in his thumb— he had it operated on this week.
Watching him bat, it looked like he was hurt; he would re-coil after some swings, they took him out of some games early, but he still got lot of hits— thought I was imagining things.
Hopefully he’ll be good to go next spring.
— Red Sox OF Masataka Yoshida is recovering from surgery to fix the labrum in his right shoulder; Yoshida hit .280 this year but only played in 108 games- he hit .289 last year, in 140 games.
— Hurricane Milton shredded the Tropicana Field roof, where the Tampa Bay Rays call home; the stadium isn’t expected to be ready for the start of next season.
Rays are moving into a new stadium in St Petersburg in 2028; the team said “there are more questions than answers” at this point, with the 2025 regular season 162 days away.
— Famous birthdays, October 17th:
Michael McKean, 77
George Wendt, 76
Mike Bratz, 69
Jay Humphries, 62
Danny Ferry, 58
John Mabry, 54
Willie Snead, 32
Myles Straw, 30
— Dallas Cowboys have allowed 415+ total yards in their last five home games, the longest-such streak in the NFL since the 2012 Saints.
— Georgia Bulldogs are an underdog at Texas Saturday, which will end a streak that has seem the Dawgs favored in 49 consecutive games.
— Word of the Day: Kerfuffle- a disturbance or commotion typically caused by a dispute or conflict.
— Tom Brady now owns a piece of the Las Vegas Raiders; if he owns 5% of the team, whose valuation is $6.7B, then his piece is worth $335M. Brady is also obviously a TV analyst now; there are rules he has to follow:
Brady isn’t allowed in other teams’ practice facilities.
He isn’t allowed to watch other teams practice.
He isn’t allowed to go to broadcast production meetings, awkward for a TV analyst.
He can’t publicly criticize game officials or other teams.
Interesting to see how this all turns out.
— In best-of-7 baseball playoff series, teams that took na 2-0 series lead have won 76 of 91 series (84%). Under the current 2-3-2 format, teams winning the first two games at home have won the series 44 of 55 times (80%).
— People gamble on everything these days; there are even Bronny James props for the NBA season, when there is no guarantee how much the young man will even play this year:
-110- James scoring 15+ points in any regular season game
+120- James making 3+ 3-pointers in any regular season game
+550- James making 4+ 3-pointers in any regular season game
+800- James scoring 20+ points in any regular season game.
+1200- James making 5+ 3-pointers in any regular season game
— Things have changed a lot in baseball; back on June 14, 1974, Red Sox played the Angels in Anaheim, Luis Tiant vs Nolan Ryan.
Tiant threw 14.1 innings, threw 280 pitches.
Ryan threw 325 pitches in 13 innings.
Angels won 4-3 in 15 innings.
Unusual for a pitcher to throw 100 pitches in a start now.
Best NFL Week 7 betting trends
The trend: The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdogThe trend: The Patriots are 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog of seven or less
The trend: These teams have gone Over in five straight games against each other Min vs. Det
The trend: The Texans are 14-6 to the Under in regular-season games since the start of last season
The trend: The Seahawks are 5-1 to the Over this season
The trend: The Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of seven or more
The trend: The Giants have gone Under in nine of their last 11 home games
The trend: The Browns have gone Under their team total in all six of their games
The trend: The Dolphins are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games as an underdog
The trend: These teams are a combined 10-2 to the Over Was vs. Car
The trend: The Rams have gone Under their team total of four of five games this season
The trend: Kansas City is 13-3-1 ATS as an underdog since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018
The trend: Pittsburgh is 17-6-4 ATS as a home underdog under Mike Tomlin
The trend: These teams have each scored at least 30 points in three straight games Bal vs. TB
The trend: The Chargers haven’t seen a game reach 40 combined points yet this season
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Oct. 16, at 3 p.m. ET.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-0 straight up this season. In the last 20 years, they are the fifth team to start 5-0 SU as reigning champions.
Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 SU as an underdog (11-1-1 ATS). That is the best straight-up mark for a QB as a dog (minimum 10 starts) in the Super Bowl era. Mahomes is 24-10 SU, 25-8-1 ATS in his career as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog.
Last decade, Andy Reid has been a dog off a bye four times — he’s 4-0 SU/ATS. In his career, that number is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS. His two losses are to Peyton Manning in 2013 and Tom Brady in 2005 Super Bowl.
Road favorites finished 9-0 straight up and against the spread in Week 6 and are 12-0 SU/ATS over the last two weeks.
This would be the most covers in a single week without an ATS loss by road favs since the merger in 1970.
Let's talk Minnesota Vikings and the NFC North.
The NFC North is now 18-4 ATS (82%) entering Week 7 — the best ATS win percentage for any division through six weeks of a season in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
• Vikings: 5-0 ATS
• Bears: 5-1 ATS
• Lions: 4-1 ATS
• Packers: 4-2 ATS
The Vikings are the story of the NFL through six weeks. They are 5-0 SU/ATS full game. 5-0 SU/ATS in first half, 5-0 SU/ATS in the first quarter and their team totals are 5-0 to the over.
The 2024 Vikings and 2007 Patriots are the lone teams to start a season 5-0 SU/ATS and 5-0 1H ATS in the last 20 years.
Not only is it a great start, but an unexpected one. Minnesota had a 6.5 preseason win total. The only teams since 1990 to start 5-0 SU with a win total below 7 are the 2024 Vikings, 2009 Broncos and 1999 Rams.
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 38-49-3 ATS (43.7%) this season, with a $100 bettor down $1,446. Through five weeks, it was the worst start for the betting public in the last 20 years. Now, it is the fourth-worst start through six weeks after the public went 10-3-1 ATS.
Public ATS Record by Week:
+ Week 6: 10-3-1 ATS
+ Week 5: 6-8 ATS
+ Week 4: 5-8-1 ATS
+ Week 3: 6-10 ATS
+ Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS
+ Week 1: 6-10 ATS
The Harbaugh brothers are a combined 51-25 SU and 43-31-2 ATS in night games as NFL head coaches.
When they are coaching on Monday Night Football, they are a combined 19-7 SU and 18-8 ATS as head coaches.
Jim Harbaugh has thrived on MNF in his NFL career. He’s 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, all with the 49ers.
In the Wild Card era, that is the most wins without a SU loss for a head coach on Monday Night Football. The Harbaugh brothers are 15-4 SU in their last 19 total MNF games dating back to 2011.
Lamar Jackson has faced an NFC team 23 times in his career, he is 22-1 SU (11-11-1 ATS) in those games – his only loss was against the Giants in 2022.
When Jackson faces an NFC team in any game outside of the 1 p.m. window, he’s 8-0 SU, including 6-0 SU on extended rest when he faces an NFC team.
Since the beginning of last season, first half overs are hitting at a 55.2% rate. First half overs are 55-36-1 (60%) this season, including 14-7 to the over in night games.
The 55-36-1 1H over mark is the second-best over the last 20 years through six weeks.
NFL first half unders were 105-83-3 (56%) in night games between 2021-23.
First Half Overs are .500 or better every week
+ Week 6: 9-5
+ Week 5: 9-5
+ Week 4: 12-4
+ Week 3: 9-6-1
+ Week 2: 8-8
+ Week 1: 8-8
The Jets and Giants are a combined 4-31 straight up playing at night in primetime since 2019.
There are four more night games involving the Jets and Giants left this season, including the Sunday Night Football game between the Jets and Steelers this week.
There have been 158 quarterback who have started at least 10 NFL games in the past 20 years. Will Levis' 2-12 (14%) mark against the second half spread is the worst in terms of win percentage for all 158 QBs.
Will Levis has made 14 starts in his NFL career, he is 9-5 1H ATS and 2-12 2H ATS. Outside of Monday Night Football, Levis is 0-12 2H ATS in his career.
Top NFL Things To Know
Pat The Dog
Super Bowl RematchThe Kansas City Chiefs are 5-0 straight up this season. In the last 20 years, they are the fifth team to start 5-0 SU as reigning champions.
- 2024 Chiefs 5-0 SU
- 2019 Patriots 8-0 SU
- 2015 Patriots 10-0 SU
- 2011 Packers 13-0 SU
- 2007 Colts 7-0 SU
Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 SU as an underdog (11-1-1 ATS). That is the best straight-up mark for a QB as a dog (minimum 10 starts) in the Super Bowl era. Mahomes is 24-10 SU, 25-8-1 ATS in his career as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog.
Last decade, Andy Reid has been a dog off a bye four times — he’s 4-0 SU/ATS. In his career, that number is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS. His two losses are to Peyton Manning in 2013 and Tom Brady in 2005 Super Bowl.
Road Warriors
What. A. Week.Road favorites finished 9-0 straight up and against the spread in Week 6 and are 12-0 SU/ATS over the last two weeks.
This would be the most covers in a single week without an ATS loss by road favs since the merger in 1970.
The North Remembers
Can Vikings Keep It Going?Let's talk Minnesota Vikings and the NFC North.
The NFC North is now 18-4 ATS (82%) entering Week 7 — the best ATS win percentage for any division through six weeks of a season in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
• Vikings: 5-0 ATS
• Bears: 5-1 ATS
• Lions: 4-1 ATS
• Packers: 4-2 ATS
The Vikings are the story of the NFL through six weeks. They are 5-0 SU/ATS full game. 5-0 SU/ATS in first half, 5-0 SU/ATS in the first quarter and their team totals are 5-0 to the over.
The 2024 Vikings and 2007 Patriots are the lone teams to start a season 5-0 SU/ATS and 5-0 1H ATS in the last 20 years.
Not only is it a great start, but an unexpected one. Minnesota had a 6.5 preseason win total. The only teams since 1990 to start 5-0 SU with a win total below 7 are the 2024 Vikings, 2009 Broncos and 1999 Rams.
Public Strikes Back
Turn of FortuneThe betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 38-49-3 ATS (43.7%) this season, with a $100 bettor down $1,446. Through five weeks, it was the worst start for the betting public in the last 20 years. Now, it is the fourth-worst start through six weeks after the public went 10-3-1 ATS.
Public ATS Record by Week:
+ Week 6: 10-3-1 ATS
+ Week 5: 6-8 ATS
+ Week 4: 5-8-1 ATS
+ Week 3: 6-10 ATS
+ Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS
+ Week 1: 6-10 ATS
Jim and John
Harbaugh's On Monday NightThe Harbaugh brothers are a combined 51-25 SU and 43-31-2 ATS in night games as NFL head coaches.
When they are coaching on Monday Night Football, they are a combined 19-7 SU and 18-8 ATS as head coaches.
Jim Harbaugh has thrived on MNF in his NFL career. He’s 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, all with the 49ers.
In the Wild Card era, that is the most wins without a SU loss for a head coach on Monday Night Football. The Harbaugh brothers are 15-4 SU in their last 19 total MNF games dating back to 2011.
NFC Beast
Lamar Looks To Extend MarkLamar Jackson has faced an NFC team 23 times in his career, he is 22-1 SU (11-11-1 ATS) in those games – his only loss was against the Giants in 2022.
When Jackson faces an NFC team in any game outside of the 1 p.m. window, he’s 8-0 SU, including 6-0 SU on extended rest when he faces an NFC team.
Early Points
First Half Overs CruisingSince the beginning of last season, first half overs are hitting at a 55.2% rate. First half overs are 55-36-1 (60%) this season, including 14-7 to the over in night games.
The 55-36-1 1H over mark is the second-best over the last 20 years through six weeks.
NFL first half unders were 105-83-3 (56%) in night games between 2021-23.
First Half Overs are .500 or better every week
+ Week 6: 9-5
+ Week 5: 9-5
+ Week 4: 12-4
+ Week 3: 9-6-1
+ Week 2: 8-8
+ Week 1: 8-8
New Yuck, New Yuck
Big Apple Struggles at NightThe Jets and Giants are a combined 4-31 straight up playing at night in primetime since 2019.
There are four more night games involving the Jets and Giants left this season, including the Sunday Night Football game between the Jets and Steelers this week.
Second Act
Levis' 2nd Half StrugglesThere have been 158 quarterback who have started at least 10 NFL games in the past 20 years. Will Levis' 2-12 (14%) mark against the second half spread is the worst in terms of win percentage for all 158 QBs.
Will Levis has made 14 starts in his NFL career, he is 9-5 1H ATS and 2-12 2H ATS. Outside of Monday Night Football, Levis is 0-12 2H ATS in his career.
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 11-2 SU and 13-0 ATS (100%) as a road/neutral underdog. The average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 33.4
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+1.5 at SF)
NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 16-39 SU and 13-38-4 ATS (25.5%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-3 vs MIA)
There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding Thursday Night Football road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with an 18-18 SU and 24-11-1 ATS (68.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 at NO)
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 32-8 SU and 29-10-1 ATS (74.4%).
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-8 vs. CAR)
Post-bye week system #8:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 31-12 since 2021, 72.1%, +17.8 Units, 41.4% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: MIA-IND (o/u at 43.5), KC-SF (o/u at 47)
* DETROIT has won the last seven ATS vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+2.5 at MIN)
* NEW ENGLAND is 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+5.5 at JAX)
#1 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the MAKINEN EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: DET-MIN UNDER 50 (-5.9 difference)
* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 11-2 SU and 13-0 ATS (100%) as a road/neutral underdog. The average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 33.4
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+1.5 at SF)
NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 16-39 SU and 13-38-4 ATS (25.5%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-3 vs MIA)
There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding Thursday Night Football road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with an 18-18 SU and 24-11-1 ATS (68.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 at NO)
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 32-8 SU and 29-10-1 ATS (74.4%).
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-8 vs. CAR)
Post-bye week system #8:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 31-12 since 2021, 72.1%, +17.8 Units, 41.4% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: MIA-IND (o/u at 43.5), KC-SF (o/u at 47)
* DETROIT has won the last seven ATS vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+2.5 at MIN)
* NEW ENGLAND is 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+5.5 at JAX)
#1 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the MAKINEN EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: DET-MIN UNDER 50 (-5.9 difference)
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 34-35 SU and 40-27-2 ATS (59.7%) in the last 69.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 at NO)
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 23-21 SU but 14-28-2 ATS (33.3%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 37-25 SU and 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs. DEN)
· Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS (30.4%) in their last 23, scoring just 14.9 PPG. In terms of totals, 16 of the last 21 (76.2%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
Systems Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs DEN), also PLAY UNDER in DEN-NO (o/u at 37)
· There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with an 18-18 SU & 24-11-1 ATS (68.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 at NO)
·Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 24-31 SU & 19-35-1 ATS (35.2%).
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs. DEN)
UNDER the total TNF Team Trends
New Orleans 11-3 Under since TNF debuted in 2012
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-NO (o/u at 37)
The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog
· Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 34-35 SU and 40-27-2 ATS (59.7%) in the last 69.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 at NO)
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 23-21 SU but 14-28-2 ATS (33.3%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 37-25 SU and 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs. DEN)
· Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS (30.4%) in their last 23, scoring just 14.9 PPG. In terms of totals, 16 of the last 21 (76.2%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
Systems Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs DEN), also PLAY UNDER in DEN-NO (o/u at 37)
· There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with an 18-18 SU & 24-11-1 ATS (68.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 at NO)
·Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 24-31 SU & 19-35-1 ATS (35.2%).
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs. DEN)
UNDER the total TNF Team Trends
New Orleans 11-3 Under since TNF debuted in 2012
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-NO (o/u at 37)
The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog
