NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, March 20
Thursday's NCAA games
afternoon games
Ohio State won its last four first round games, covered last three, winning by 29-29-25 points, but those were as 1-2 seeds; they’ve made Sweet 16 last four years. #6 seeds are 7-1 vs spread in first round last two years, after being 2-10 three years before that (9-11 last five years). Last year was just second time this century no #6 seed got beat in first round. Dayton is in tourney for first time since ’09, second time in decade; Buckeyes won’t play them during regular season. OSU is more experienced, teams play roughly same tempo, Flyers sub more. Buckeyes are 9-4 in last 13 games. Dayton is 3-6 vs top 50 teams.
There are 351 D-I basketball teams; Wisconsin ranks #338 in time per possession, American #339. Teams have roughly same experience level, sub the same amount, both play slow, just Wisconsin does it in a way better league. American was 3-5 in last eight games before going 3-0 in Patriot tournament. Last year was first time in seven years Ryan lost his first round game; last time he was #2 seed, Badgers covered by half-point in first round, laying 12.5 to Corpus Christi in ’07. Patriot League teams lost six of last seven in tournament, but covered four of last six in this round. #2 seeds went 2-2 vs spread in first round in each of the last six years.
Over last 18 years, underdogs are 44-28 (61.1%) vs spread in these 5-12 first round games, with #12's 5-3 SU last two years. Cincinnati tied for AAC title but is just 5-4 in last nine games- three of those losses were Louisville/UConn (2). Ivy League teams split last four first round games after losing nine in row before that; Harvard upset New Mexico LY, but were getting 10.5 points- this spread is little light, no? Crimson lost by 5 at UConn in its only top 50 game. Harvard hasn't played in 12 days, has won eight games in row but against bad teams. Last three years, favorites of 5 or less points are 15-22 vs spread in first round games.
Colorado rode senior G Booker to make it here after star Dinwiddie was lost for year (knee) in January; Buffaloes lost by 12 to Baylor, won by 14 vs Georgia in two biggest non-league games. Third year in row in this event for Colorado, which was 14-2 with Dinwiddie, 9-9 since. Pitt won five of last seven games, losing by 3 to Virginia after beating Tar Heels in first ACC tourney. Patterson is 14-31 from arc in his last four games- Panthers struggle when he doesn't shoot well. Underdogs covered 16 of last 20 #8-9 games over last five years. Pitt had won five first round tilts in row before they lost to Wichita State 73-55 in first round LY.
Not only is Syracuse playing couple hours from home in Buffalo, its an arena, not a dome, so their home court edge is even bigger here. Orange stumbled to 2-5 finish after being 25-0 at one point. #3 seeds are 8-4 vs spread in this round last three years. Western Michigan split pair with Eastern Michigan, which is Syracuse-clone coached by former assistant coach. Broncos won 11 of last 12 games with only loss in OT; they are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9-6 points- their best win is over New Mexico State. MAC teams covered four of last five first round games. Boeheim is 7-3 vs spread in first round games last ten years.
BYU lost 100-96 (+9) in OT at Oregon Dec 21; Haws/Collinsworth got 41+ minutes in game, but Collinsworth blew out knee in WCC tourney, is out here, which made some say BYU shouldn't be here. Cougars won 15 of last 19 games after starting season 8-7. Oregon won eight of last nine games, getting beat by UCLA in Pac-12 tourney; Ducks are 3-0 vs WCC teams this year, with other two wins by 23-18 points- they made Sweet 16 LY, making tourney for first time under Altman. Over last five years,.underdogs are 15-5 vs spread in #7-10 games, with 12 SU upsets. Hard to imagine Collinsworth's injury not crippling BYU's chances.
Over last six years, #1 seeds are 14-10 vs spread in this round-- Albany won in Dayton Tuesday night, has to play here 45 hours later, against #1 team in country- good luck. Great Danes are in tourney for 4th time; they covered two of three in this round, losing by 12 (+20.5) to Duke in LY's event. Gators won first round game last three years by 28-26-32 points; they beat Kentucky in SEC final Sunday, so quick turnaround for them, too. chances are they've been prepping for second round game, when they'll be playing Colorado-Pitt winner. Albany is well-coached; they jumped out to 21-2 lead, but had trouble with quickness/shooting of Mt St Mary's, which doesn't bode well for this opponent.
Michigan State is finally healthy, looked sharp in Big Dozen tourney, where they beat Michigan in finals, avenging pair of earlier losses to the Wolverines. Spartans are 12-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 100, with 10 of 12 wins by 14+ points. Over last eight years, #4 seeds are 20-12 vs spread in this round. Izzo won six of last seven first round games, winning last two years by 22-11 points. Delaware lost by 4 to Villanova, 5 to Notre Dame, 12 to Ohio State; they've won 19 of last 21 games, don't sub much, protect ball very well- they scored 84.5 ppg in their last four games.
Evening games
UConn won nine of last 12 games, is in 5th NCAA in seven year, but in for first time since Calhoun retired. Three of Huskies' last five losses are Louisville. UConn is making 38.7% of its 3's. St Joe's won nine of last 11 games, using 6-man rotation- TV timeouts are longer in NCAAs, so short rotation shouldn't matter- they sub less than any team in country, need to stay out of foul trouble. Hawks make 64.1% of foul shots, 38% of 3-pointers- they lost 77-69 to Temple, their only game vs AAC foe. Huskies' last NCAA win was '11 title game; they're 3-10 vs spread last 13 first round games, usually as a big favorite.
Michigan won/covered four of last five first round games; they're 7-1 in last eight games overall, 19-4 in last 23. Wolverines are 4-0 this season vs teams ranked outside the top 200, with all four wins by 27+ points. Wofford won 12 of its last 14 games, but finished T3 in weak Southern Conference; Terriers don't have a senior in their rotation. Wofford lost its high profile games this year by 21-21-20-14-15 points; they're 0-7 vs teams ranked in top 200. Over last seven years, #2 seeds are 15-13 vs spread, with three SU upsets last two years, after they were 40-0 SU in the decade before that.
If you bet every underdog in 5-12 games over last 18 years, you would be 44-28 (61.1%) vs spread. Saint Louis lost four of its last five games after being 25-2 at one point; eight of its last nine games were decided by 7 or less points. Billikens are very good at defending arc (29.1%, #3) but NC State doesn't shoot lot of 3's, mkaing just 30.2% (#326). Wolfpack has momentum after winning play-in game Tuesday; at-large teams that won play-in games are 3-3 vs spread in next game. Billikens have edge in experience; they're 7-5 vs top 100 teams, 19-1 vs everyone else. State is 5-1 in last six games, has best player on court in Warren.
Summit League teams are 0-5 SU in NCAAs last five years (2-3 against spread) with four losses by 8+ points. North Dakota State won its last nine games and 23 of last 26; they've got big edge in experience here, as well as win at Notre Dame before Grant got hurt, but they also lost by 17 at Ohio State, 13 at St Mary's, 1 at home to Southern Miss. Sooners won five of last seven games; six of nine guys in their rotiation are either frosh/sophs. Oklahoma plays at much faster pace; neither team subs a lot. Unlike last year, when Sooners lost last three games to end season, Oklahoma won five of its last seven games.
Milwaukee won its last five games, winning an unusual four games in the Horizon tourney; they won eight of last nine games Aaron played, after going 1-3 during four games he was suspended for. Panthers lost 80-71 to DePaul, only Big East team they've played. Villanova is 0-4 vs spread in last four first round games, losing last two (both 8-9 games); they are 0-4 vs spread last four times they were double digit favorite in 1st round with last cover in 1996. Not fond of teams that get upset in conference tourney first round like Villanova did. Teams play roughly same tempo, Milwaukee is more experienced but Wildcats will use its bench more.
Texas went 5-6 in last 11 games, Arizona State 2-5 in last seven, losing last three; ASU lost its last six neutral/road games, but beat Texas Tech by 14 in only game vs Big X opponent. Longhorns are 1-4 in last five NCAA tourney games, with all four losses hy 5 or less points- they do not have senior in their rotation, are 11-2 outside Big X. Sun Devils have big edge in experience but don't sub very much- teams play at roughly same tempo. ASU won last four first round games. Over last five years, underdogs are 15-5 vs spread in first round 7-10 games. Key to game is whether young Texas guards can neutralize ASU's PG Carson.
Manhattan coach Masiello was Knick ballboy for Pitino, both played, coached for him at Kentucky so he knows all there is to know about the Cardinals' system, but his players aren't as good. Jaspers played a weak schedule; their 80-74 loss to George Washington was only game they've played vs top 75 team. Manhattan will do same things Louisville does, but they haven't tried to do them vs players this good. Defending champ Lousiville crushed its opponent in AAC tourney last week, has chip on its shoulder now after being given 4-seed by committee. Over last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.
New Mexico State played in a horribly watered-down WAC, just a bad league, but they won it and they also split with New Mexico, winning in Pit- they also lost by hoop at Colorado State, so they were 1-2 against teams in San Diego State's league and also swept UTEP, so they've got some players Aggies have 7-5 center; their opponents shot 42.8% inside arc against them. Aztecs won six of last seven games, losing to Lobos in Mountain West tourney in Vegas; they don't shoot ball especially well, tend to drift a little against inferior opponents. Over the last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.
