Cnotes NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[CNOTES]

Booms and Busts

March 17, 2014


POTENTIAL TOURNAMENT BOOMS

Massachusetts
The Minutemen are no stranger to big games. They are 6-1 against teams in the RPI top 50 and have non-conference wins over LSU, Nebraska, New Mexico, Clemson, BYU, and Providence. Currently UMass is 12th in RPI & 47th in KenPom and is projected as a No. 7 seed.

New Mexico
New Mexico features one of the top trio’s of scorers with Cameron Bairstow (20.3 PPG), Kendall Williams (16.9 PPG), and Alex Kirk (13.8 PPG). A trustworthy trio can work wonders in tournament time. The Lobos played a tough non-conference sched - W’s against Cincinnati & Marquette, L’s to Kansas and Massachusetts - and are getting hot at the right time (11-1 the last 12 games). The Lobos rank 20th in RPI and 32nd in KenPom and project as a No. 7 seed.

VCU
Coach Shaka Smart is no stranger to March Madness after leading the Rams made a big run to the Final Four in 2011. They’ve had their ups (won at Virginia) and downs (lost to Northern Iowa) early in the season but consistently one of the better teams in the Atlantic 10. VCU’s “havoc” defense is one of the toughest to prepare for. When the offense is clicking along with its stout defense, watch out. The Rams are 22nd in RPI & 16th in KenPom and currently project as a No. 7 seed.

Baylor
A lot of people wrote off the Bears after a 1-7 stretch; but they’re getting hot at the right time. They’ve gone 6-1 over the last seven games and worked their way back into the tournament discussion (currently a No. 11 seed) with quality wins over Kansas State (2x), Oklahoma State, and Iowa State. The Big 12 conference slate was tough in itself and Baylor added a difficult non-conference schedule on top of that. Overall they faced 14 teams in the RPI top 50 (6-8 in those games).

POTENTIAL TOURNAMENT BUSTS

Pittsburgh
After a 17-2 start, it was hard to envision this team struggling to make the tournament, but with a 4-6 mark over the last 10 and just one win over a projected tournament team (Stanford), this team now finds itself on the bubble. The Panthers are 0-6 against RPI top-25 teams and just 2-8 ATS over the last 10.

Ohio State
The Bucks started 15-0 but have slipped up a few times in Big Ten play. They own an elite defense (2nd nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rating), but struggle mightily on offense. Over the last 10 years, only one team has made the Final Four with an offensive efficiency ranking lower than 100 - Ohio State currently ranks 117th in OEff. They won the Big Ten tournament last year and made a run to the Elite 8 in the Big Dance, but we don’t see it happening again.

Kentucky
This is a talented squad but VERY young. Calipari has worked wonders with youthful squads before (won the tournament in 2011 with a similarly green squad), but that won’t happen this year. The Wildcats only have one win over a current tournament team and are 1-6 against RPI top-50 teams.

Gonzaga
The tournament darling of the past 15 years is one you might want to steer clear of come tournament time. The Zags didn’t play any RPI top-25 teams and went just 2-3 against teams ranked 26-50 in RPI. They won the weak West Coast Conference, but overall don’t have an impressive resume. Their best wins include a neutral court victory over Arkansas and a road win over West Virginia (Arkansas is currently one of the last four in the tournament).

Oregon
The Ducks made a nice run in March last year. They won the Pac-12 tournament and made it to the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 seed before losing to the eventual national champion, Louisville. They’ve currently won seven straight after a 3-8 start in conference play but only two of those six wins have come against potential tournament teams.

 

[CNOTES]

SFA on 28-game run heading to NCAAs

March 17, 2014



Stephen F. Austin is headed to the NCAA tournament as the first 30-win team in Southland Conference history.

The Lumberjacks have more wins than Karl Malone's Louisiana Tech team that went to the Sweet 16 and finished 29-3 in 1985. SFA's No. 12 seed in the South Region is the best for the conference since Malone's bunch was at No. 5.

The Lumberjacks play in San Diego on Friday against VCU, one of the few double-digit seeds to reach the Final Four when the Rams made it to Houston at No. 11 in 2011.

Led by Southland Conference player of the year Jacob Parker, Stephen F. Austin has a 28-game winning streak, second in the country behind undefeated and top-seeded Wichita State.

 

[CNOTES]

Xavier in familiar place versus NC State

March 17, 2014




DAYTON, Ohio (AP) - Get on Interstate 75, drive north for less than an hour, play in an arena that's been a mainstay on the schedule for decades. Seems like Xavier has a built-in advantage for its opening NCAA game.

Oh, but those slow-to-forget Dayton fans will try to do something about it.

The Musketeers (21-12) play a First Four game against North Carolina State (21-13) on Tuesday night at the University of Dayton Arena, the site of many storied games against the Flyers. That rivalry went into hiatus when Xavier moved into the Big East this season, leaving the Flyers and the Atlantic 10 behind.

Both teams reached the NCAA tournament - Dayton plays Ohio State in Buffalo on Thursday. Many of their fans will still be at home on Tuesday, intermingled with the Xavier fans in the stands.

It's not going to be all cheers for the home team.

''I'm sure it will be a bit of oil-and-vinegar tomorrow night,'' Xavier coach Chris Mack said.

Five things to watch in their First Four game:

ROOMMATE REUNION: The teams have never played, but they have one close tie. Sophomore Semaj Christon, who is Xavier's leading scorer, was the roommate of sophomore T.J. Warren, the ACC's player of the year and top scorer, when they played together at Brewster Academy one year. They've kept in contact and are looking forward to going against each other.

''We have a good relationship,'' said Warren, who is averaging 24.8 points per game. ''I'm familiar with his game. He's from Cincinnati, so it's not too far from here. So it's going to be a lot of fun to play against him in the NCAA tournament. Really looking forward to it.''

STOPPING WARREN: Warren is back on the same court where he had a rough NCAA tournament debut as a freshman. He scored only four points on 2-of-5 shooting during a 76-72 loss to Temple at UD Arena last March. The Owls' Khalif Wyatt scored 31 points despite an injured left thumb. The Wolfpack were one-and-done. ''It was pretty tough, losing in the first round,'' Warren said. ''Don't want to repeat that.''

HOW IS STAINBROOK? Xavier suffered a big setback when center Matt Stainbrook - the Big East's second-leading rebounder - sprained his left knee in the second-to-last regular season game. He sat out the final regular-season game, a loss to Villanova, and played 15 minutes in a win over Marquette in the conference tournament. The knee was bothering him and he was limited to 9 minutes in a loss to Creighton the following day. How much he can play will have a significant impact on the game.

''I feel a ton better,'' Stainbrook said before practice Tuesday. ''I've had a little more time to get my legs back.''

ALL THOSE NEWCOMERS: Neither team has much NCAA tournament experience, which could come into play Tuesday night. North Carolina State has two players who played in the tournament last year. Xavier failed to reach the tournament last season, ending a streak of seven straight appearances and leaving the Musketeers short on March experience, too.

''We have so many young guys, this is a new experience for them,'' N.C. State coach Mark Gottfried said. ''We need to make sure that we're not just excited to be here because when you're young, sometimes that happens.''

''I think what tournament play comes down to is being yourself, not getting rattled by the environment,'' Mack said.

NOT AT HOME: The Musketeers will be the home team in theory. How it actually works out will be interesting with so many Flyer fans rooting against Xavier. When the Musketeers took the court for practice on Monday night, three red-shirted Flyers fans stood behind the basket chanting: ''Let's Go Wolfpack!''

There's plenty of history in the arena for Xavier, which has played Dayton since 1919 in a hard-edged rivalry. Mack's wife, Christi, was inducted into Dayton's Hall of Fame this month in recognition of her basketball career with the Flyers. One of Xavier's greatest tournament moments came during the the A-10 tournament in 2004, when the Musketeers beat No. 1 Saint Joseph's and won four games in a row, knocking off Dayton on the Flyers' home court in the title game.

''I think it's going to make for a great environment,'' Mack said. ''I'd rather play in a supercharged atmosphere than a hollow one, and we're going to have that tomorrow night.''

 

[CNOTES]

Tournament Outlook

March 17, 2014


The No. 1 seeds for the 2014 NCAA Tournament are Florida, Wichita State, Virginia and Arizona. The Gators are the No. 1 overall seed and bring a 26-game winning streak into the NCAA Tournament. The LVH Superbook has UF installed as the 4/1 favorite to cut the nets down in Dallas.

Michigan St. has the second-shortest odds (+450), but the Big Ten Tournament champs are a No. 4 seed. I have the Spartans third in my updated power rankings, behind No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Louisville.

The next-shortest odds belong to Arizona (6/1), Kansas (8/1), Wichita St. (15/1), Virginia (15/1), Duke (15/1), Syracuse (15/1) and Louisville (15/1).

Speaking of the Cardinals, they are also a No. 4 seed. I understand that the Selection Committee has to take into account every team's entire resume. Therefore, I'm ok with Michigan St. and Louisville not being top seeds. But four seeds?! Really?

Tom Izzo's team had late-season home losses to Nebraska and Illinois, so I can see the Spartans being a No. 3 seed. But U of L should be no worse than a two seed.

Let's cruise through each region with some instant analysis...

South Region

Florida will face the winner of Mt. St. Mary's vs. Albany on Thursday in Orlando. In the 2006 NCAA Tournament, the Great Danes faced top-seeded UConn and led by a 50-38 score with 11 minutes remaining. The Huskies would rally to win, but Albany gave us one of the biggest challenges from a No. 16 seed in Tournament history.

Assuming the Gators advance, they'll face the winner of Colorado vs. Pittsburgh. I liked how the Panthers played in the ACC Tourney and expect them to get past the Buffaloes.

In the 5/12 matchup, VCU will take on Stephen F. Austin in San Diego. Bettors should check the status of VCU's Melvin Johnson, who injured his knee in the Atlantic 10 Tournament semifinals.

Johnson was on crutches for the Rams' loss to St. Joseph's in the A-10 Tourney finals. He averages 10.4 points per game. Shaka Smart owns a 7-3 career record in the NCAA Tournament, leading VCU to the 2011 Final Four.

Stephen F. Austin hasn't lost since Nov. 23. The Lumberjacks only played one team in the Top 95 of the RPI. They led at Texas by four at intermission but ended up on the wrong end of a 72-62 decision.

If form holds in the South, the Sweet 16 matchups would be Florida vs. UCLA and Kansas vs. Syracuse. That would give Memphis a pair of national-title game rematches. Carmelo Anthony led the 'Cuse past KU in the finals of the 2003 Tourney, while Florida put on a dunk contest against the Bruins in the 2006 finals.

West Region

Arizona's path to North Texas is littered with potholes. In fact, the Wildcats are in the most danger of failing to get to the Sweet 16 out of the No. 1 seeds. Why, you ask? Well, because they might have to go against Oklahoma St. the first weekend.

Since Marcus Smart returned from a three-game suspension, the Cowboys are playing like the Final Four contender they appeared to be back in November and December. Travis Ford's team will go up against Gonzaga in its first game.

If Arizona gets to Anaheim, the host city for the West Region semifinals, it will most likely be looking at a matchup against Oklahoma or San Diego St., both of whom are capable of beating the Wildcats.

The West's No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, Wisconsin and Creighton, respectively, have difficult paths to Anaheim, too. The Badgers might have to face Oregon, albeit in Milwaukee. The Ducks, who get to play a BYU team that'll be without its second-best player Kyle Collinsworth (ACL tear), had won eight in a row before losing to UCLA in the Pac-12 Tournament.

The Bluejays and National Player of the Year Doug McDermott will get the winner of Baylor-Nebraska if they advance past No. 14 seed UL-Lafayette, which upset Ga. St. in overtime to earn its first NCAA bid since 2005 when it lost to Louisville.

Like Oklahoma St., Baylor has put its January/early February woes in the rearview mirror and Scott Drew's squad would have a significant size advantage against Creighton. The Bears also have one of nation's best 3-point shooters in Brady Heslip.

Midwest Region

The top-seeded Shockers might face the last team it lost to in the Midwest semifinals. That would be fourth-seeded Louisville, which trailed for a big chunk of its national semifinal showdown against Wichita St. last year before rallying to win and eventually capture the 2013 national championship.

That rematch isn't a given by any means, however. For starters, Gregg Marshall's team will have to take on the Kansas St.-Kentucky winner. There's no doubt that both groups of Wildcats have the talent to beat Wichita St and Louisville. In fact, UK knocked off Rick Pitino's team earlier this season at Rupp Arena.

The third-seeded Duke Blue Devils better be on upset alert when they collide with Mercer. The Bears won at Ole Miss, at Ohio and vs. Seton Hall during the regular season, and they lost by just three at Texas. Bob Hoffman's team also has two wins over Florida Gulf Coast, which advanced to the Sweet 16 last season.

If form holds in the Midwest, Duke would face second-seeded Michigan in the region semifinals in Indianapolis. That would be a rematch of the 1992 finals and a hotly-contest second-round game in the 2011 Tournament.

East Region

In order, the top seeds in the East are Virginia, Villanova, Iowa St. and Michigan St. This region's semifinals will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

The top-seeded Cavaliers will face Coastal Carolina, which is coached by 68-year-old Cliff Ellis. Coastal Carolina is the fourth school Ellis has taken to the Tournament. He was Clemson's head coach in the 1990 Tourney when UConn's Tate George hit the baseline buzzer beater after receiving the length-of-the-court pass from Scott Burrell at the Meadowlands. (Who could ever forget the look of disbelief on Elden Campbell's face?) If the Cavs advance, they would get the winner of George Washington vs. Memphis. I'm not certain that we'll get a Michigan St.-Virginia showdown at MSG, and it's not because I think Memphis or GW will knock off UVA.

I find it ridiculous that Cincinnati seems to be the team everyone is sleeping on in this region. In fact, like I've been saying for months, I won't be surprised if the fifth-seeded Bearcats make it to Dallas. With the exception of Florida, Cincy probably defends and rebounds better than any team in America.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- UCLA fans had to cringe when they saw the Bruins in the same region as Florida. The Gators have sent UCLA packing from the NCAA Tournament three times since 2006.

-- Speaking of cringing, how pissed were Stephen F. Austin fans when d-bag Seth Davis (the college hoops equivalent of Mark May) predicted it to get all the way to the Sweet 16? Davis gave the Lumberjacks the kiss of death. I'm not sure that dork has ever given out an accurate prediction on Selection Sunday.

-- I felt like the Selection Committee made a number of mistakes. The worst was leaving SMU out of the field. I would have had the Mustangs in ahead of BYU. I wouldn't have had a problem with BYU getting a bid if not for the injury to Collinsworth, who was the Cougars' top rebounder, leading assist man and second-leading scorer. And Dave Rose's team didn't even have to go to Dayton? I already noted the seeding mistakes with U of L and Michigan St., but what about New Mexico?! The Lobos are a seven seed? That's deplorable. They beat fifth-seeded Cincy by 19 points and have two wins over fourth-seeded San Diego St. With that said, I'm not that pissed if I'm 'Noodles' Neal, the former Ga. Tech guard who is in his first season as head coach at UNM. That's because I think UNM will handle Stanford in its opening game and would face Kansas without Joel Embiid. In other words, you'd rather be a seven seed than a three seed in KU's region because you want to get the Jayhawks with Embiid in street clothes.

-- When I think of a true sleeper team, I'm talking about a team that seeded fifth or worse and is capable of producing a six-game winning streak. In this year's field, I think the legit sleepers include Cincy, UNC, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kentucky and Kansas State, Oklahoma and North Carolina State.

--I left New Mexico, Providence, Pittsburgh and UConn off the above list of legit sleepers, but none of those four teams will get eliminated without a fight.

--I've always liked Clark Kellogg, but I can't give him a pass on his egregious error during the Selection Show on CBS. Who the hell is Peter Dinwiddie?! Colorado's Spencer Dinwiddie has been one of the best players in the Pac-12 the last two years. Moments after Kellogg's mistake, Peter Dinwiddie was trending on twitter. If I'm CU coach Tad Boyle, Kellogg's first name is either Leonard or Eugene moving forward.

-- Best First-Round Games:

1-Harvard vs. Cincinnati
2-Kentucky vs. Kansas St.
3-North Carolina vs. Providence
4-Baylor vs. Nebraska
5-Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma St.
6-Tennessee vs. Iowa

--I guess UT-Iowa is technically the only first-round game these days, but I don't subscribe to this new verbiage that calls the games in Dayton first-rounders and refers to the Round of 32 as the third round.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAA tournament odds: Spreads for opening matchups

Selection Sunday has come and gone. The field for the NCAA tournament is set and oddsmakers are frantically posting odds on the opening round (play-in games) and the Round 2 action (Thursday and Friday). Here's a look at the opening odds for those games:

Play-in Games

Mount St. Mary's vs Albany (-2.5)

Xavier vs North Carolina State (+1)

Texas Southern vs Cal Poly (-2.5)

Tennessee vs Iowa (+2)


Round 2

March 19

Pittsburgh vs Colorado (+6.5)

Dayton vs Ohio St. (-5)

Western Michigan vs Syracuse (-13)

North Dakota State vs Oklahoma (-2.5)

New Mexico St. vs San Diego St. (-6)

Brigham Young vs Oregon (-2)

American U. vs Wisconsin (-10)

Manhattan vs Louisville (-12.5)

Arizona St. vs Texas (-2.5)

Wofford vs Michigan (-14)

Harvard vs Cincinnati (-3.5)

Delaware vs Michigan St. (-13)

St. Joseph's vs Connecticut (-4)

Wis.-Milwaukee vs Villanova (-14.5)


March 20

Stephen F. Austin vs VCU (-8)

Tulsa vs UCLA (-9)

Stanford vs New Mexico (-3.5)

Eastern Kentucky vs Kansas (-13)

Weber St. vs Arizona (-14.5)

Oklahoma St. vs Gonzaga (+1)

Nebraska vs Baylor (-2.5)

Louisiana-Lafayette vs Creighton (-13.5)

Kansas St. vs Kentucky (-4)

Mercer vs Duke (10.5)

Coastal Carolina vs Virginia (-19)

George Washington vs Memphis (-2.5)

North Carolina Central vs Iowa St. (-9)

Providence vs North Carolina (-5)

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six teams whose average defensive possesssion is longest this season......

6) Arizona Wildcats 19.7

T4) Denver Pioneers 19.8

T4) Virginia Cavaliers 19.8

3) Clemson Tigers 19.9

2) Florida Gators 20.1

1) Syracuse Orangemen 21.1

*****

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) Doug McDermott mentioned something interesting Sunday night, about how he has to adjust to a different basketball now that NCAA tourney was starting. Conferences have sponsorship deals with different companies; the NCAA’s basketball deal is with Wilson—don’t think too many leagues use a Wilson ball during the regular season.

Shooters care a lot about the right feel of a ball in their hands, so guys like McDermott are using these precious few days before the tournament starts to get used to a new piece of equipment in their toolkit.

12) Oddsmakers in Las Vegas mocked the idea of Louisville as a #4-seed, saying Florida/Michigan State are only two teams that would be favored over the Cardinals this month.

11) FOX Sports1 is doing remotes on its nightly highlights show from LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas, the best one in town and the hotel I’m staying at next month. Very good cheesesteaks in a deli in the back of the sportsbook.

10) Mercer is jumping from Atlantic Sun to Southern Conference next year for football; its basketball team will find SoCon a couple steps down from Atlantic Sun, much like Belmont has found the Ohio Valley Conference.

9) Hopefully all this conference jumping will end someday; Rutgers, Maryland move next year, and a few C-USA teams jump to the AAC, while Louisville slides into the ACC. New Mexico State needs a better home, so it doesn’t have to play basketball in the depleted WAC anymore.

8) 4-5 years from now, is the Big East going to look stupid for having both Butler/Creighton in it? In other words, can they recruit well enough to compete in a top-level conference?

7) Monday morning’s earthquake in Los Angeles was the strongest one there in twenty years.

6) Two years after firing Seth Greenberg, if Virginia Tech called and wanted him back to replace the fired James Johnson, would he go? Greenberg is good on ESPN, one of their better college hoop voices; not sure what the money is like, but I’d be hesitant to bolt TV for another coaching gig, if I were him, but that’s easy for me to say. Coaching can be very addictive.

5) Monday’s Cub-Angel game in Mesa sold out. Why? They give stuff away? Did they serve green beer? Spring training baseball is very popular.

4) Teddy Bridgewater apparently had a disappointing pro day on his own college campus; how does this happen?

Why not throw at the NFL Combine? Now he could conceivably slide out of the first round, which would cost him a small fortune in his first contract. I don’t understand why guys won’t trust their own ability and just throw at the Combine.

3) Not surprised that Syracuse has the longest average possession on defense (0:21.1) in the country, but was very surprised that Florida was second (0:20.1). Top six on this list is up above and its an impressive list.

2) When you see a team like UNLV or Indiana turn down bids to the CBI and CIT, it means pretty much that they had poor team chemistry and the coaches see no value in having the team stay together any longer; they can cut ties with any players they want to get rid of, and work out with the ones they’re moving forward with.

In other words, it was a lousy year and the coaches are relieved its over without them getting fired. No one turns down the NIT because the NCAA owns the NIT, but the CBI and CIT are second-rate events and not every program wants to be bothered.

1) This bears repeating: college scholarships are one-year, renewable deals. If a coach doesn’t want a player to come back next year, he’ll simply (and mostly quietly) tell the player he’s not going to be welcome back next year, and either find the kid a place to transfer to, or wish him well with his education and move on while the kid is on his own for his next step.

This is how Ryan Harrow went from Kentucky to Georgia State this year. Coaches get fired for losing, after all, so they’re not going to keep kids around who they think are hindering the process, whether that is fair or unfair. At the end of the day, it is a big-money business.

 

[CNOTES]

68 betting stats for 68 NCAA tournament teams

It's tough to track all the teams vying for the national title when the NCAA tournaments gets underway this week. If you need a quick crash course in college hoops, here's one defining stat for all 68 teams doing the Big Dance this March.

MIDWEST REGIONAL

1. Wichita State – The Shockers had the NCAA’s best ATS record going 24-6-1 ATS.

2. Michigan – The Wolverines enter the tournament as the team who commits the least amount of fouls, averaging only 14.5 per game.

3. Duke - The Blue Devils were the country’s second-most efficient offensive team averaging 1.179 points per possession.

4. Louisville – The Cardinals’ average victory margin of plus-21.1 points led the country.

5. Saint Louis – The Billikens’ were the second-best team at defending the three, allowing only 12.4 points off the long ball.

6. UMass – The Minutemen were 13-1 SU in non-conference games having played the nation’s seventh toughest non-conference schedule based on the RPI index.

7. Texas – The Longhorns were the fourth-best offensive rebounding team in the country with 13.2 per contest.

8. Kentucky - The Wildcats were second in the country in rebounding margin at plus-10.5 per game.

9. Kansas State – Wildcats head coach Bruce Weber is only 9-11 all time in the NCAA tourney with five of those wins coming in final run with Illinois.

10. Arizona State – The Sun Devils’ 26.2 rebounds per game was the nation’s third-best mark.

11. Iowa – The Hawkeyes were second in the nation in first-half scoring, averaging 40.9 points in the opening 20 minutes.

Tennessee – The Volunteers are the 20th-best rebounding team and 15th-best defensive rebounding team in the NCAA.

12. North Carolina State – The Wolfpack were 21-13 SU and 18-12-1 ATS.

Xavier – The Musketeers are the 32nd-best shooting team in the country with a FG percentage of 47.1.

13. Manhattan – The Jaspers return to the tournament for the first time since 2004 when, as a No. 12 seed, they upset No. 5 Florida.

14. Mercer – The Bears have seven players who average over 10 minutes per game but only one player, Langston Hall, who averages in double figures.

15. Wofford – The Terriers have the 265th-best offense in the country averaging 67.7 points per game but the 23rd-best defense allowing only 62.4.

16. Cal Poly – The Mustangs were just 13-19 overall and their 62 points per game is amongst the worst of teams still playing.

Texas Southern – The Tigers go into the tourney having won nine in a row including three straight at neutral sites.


SOUTH REGIONAL

1. Florida – The Gators have 13 players – four seniors and nine underclassmen – who average at least 10 minutes per game.

2. Kansas – The Jayhawks were 5-2 SU in neutral-site games but just 3-4 ATS and were just 5-6 SU and 4-7 ATS in true road games - a total ATS mark of 7-11 away from Lawrence.

3. Syracuse – The Orange won only two games SU and covered one after losing their undefeated season in a loss to Boston College on Feb. 19.

4. UCLA – The Bruins had the NCAA’s ninth-best offense in D-1, averaging 81.8 points per game.

5. Virginia Commonwealth – The Rams led the nation in steals per game with 11.3 per contest.

6. Ohio State – In 14 years as a D-1 head coach, Thad Matta has been to the tournament 11 times only losing in the first round once.

7. New Mexico - The Lobos are 14-3 in its last 16 conference road/neutral games, with all three losses coming by a combined five points.

8. Colorado – The Buffaloes were just 7-7 SU after losing guard Spencer Dinwiddie in January.

9. Pittsburgh – As head coach of the Panthers, Jamie Dixon has only lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament once.

10. Stanford – This is the first NCAA tournament berth for the Cardinal under current head coach Johnny Dawkins.

11. Dayton – Flyers leading scorer Jordan Sibert, an Ohio native, is a transfer from OSU having played his freshman and sophomore seasons with the Buckeyes.

12. Stephen F. Austin – The Lumberjacks enter the tournament having won 26 in a row SU.

13. Tulsa - The Golden Hurricane had D-1’s second-best ATS record, going 22-8 ATS.

14. Western Michigan – The only major statistical team category in which the Broncos rank in the Top 100 is rebounding, where they are 84th with 25.1 boards per game.

15. Eastern Kentucky – The Colonels are in the Top 30 in the country in 2-point (No. 2) and 3-point field percentage (No. 28) as well as in free throws (No. 19).

16. Albany – For the second year in row, the Great Danes went 9-7 during the American East Conference but won the outright title in the conference tourney.

Mt. Saint Mary’s – As a team, Mt. St. Mary's shoots 44.1 percent from the field, 74.1 percent from the free throw line and averages 76.2 points.


WEST REGIONAL

1. Arizona – The Wildcats were the NCAA’s most defensively efficient squad, allowing just 0.865 points per possession.

2. Wisconsin - The Badgers are the best team in D-1 at protecting the basketball, averaging only 8.1 turnovers per game.

3. Creighton - The Bluejays led the NCAA in both 3-point shooting attempts and 3-point percentage, hitting 42 percent from behind the arc on over 24 attempts per game.

4. San Diego State – The Aztecs allowed teams to shoot just 42 percent from the floor and just 0.879 points per possession, both the third best marks in D-1 hoops.

5. Oklahoma – The Sooners’ 82.2 points per game was good for seventh in the country while their 75.9 points against was 308th.

6. Baylor – The Bears are the nation’s 24th-best rebounding team with 38.7 per game and seventh-best offensive rebounding team with 12.5 per game.

7. Oregon – The Ducks averaged 43.2 points per second half - the second-best mark in the country.

8. Gonzaga – The Zags had the NCAA’s second-best first-half scoring margin with 8.9 points per game.

9. Oklahoma State – The Cowboys finished the regular season 4-1 SU and ATS after losing seven in a row (1-6 ATS).

10. BYU – The Cougars were the nation’s third-best offensive team with 83.2 points per game but the Over only cashed in 13 of their 30 games.

11. Nebraska – The Cornhuskers had the nation’s 50th-best defense and played Under the total in 18 of 30 games during the regular season.

12. North Dakota State – North Dakota State’s Taylor Braun was the Summit League’s Player of the Year and scored 30 or more points on four different occasions this season.

13. New Mexico State – The Aggies won nine of 10 to end the regular season and have lost only twice since February.

14. UL Lafayette – The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost just once since February and their top two scorers, Elfrid Payton and Shawn Long, account for half the team’s 81.9 points per game.

15. American – The Eagles had the NCAA’s seventh-best defense, allowing only 53.6 points per game and won the Patriot League by holding BU to just 36 points in a 55-36 win.

16. Weber State – The Wildcats allowed opponents to score just 18.6 percent of their points off 3-pointers, the third lowest percentage in the country.


EAST REGIONAL

1. Virginia – The Cavaliers allowed 55.1 points per game, the lowest mark in the NCAA.

2. Villanova - The Wildcats’ 21-9 ATS mark was the sixth-best record in the nation.

3. Iowa State - The Cyclones are the most unselfish team in the nation averaging 18.5 assists per game.

4. Michigan State – If the Spartans don’t make the national semifinals, it will be the first senior class Tom Izzo has failed to take to a Final Four.

5. Cincinnati – The Bearcats’ record is the best in Mick Cronin’s tenure and he has not lost in the first round in their last three trips to the NCAA tournament.

6. North Carolina - The Tar Heels were third in the country, averaging 47.1 points per game off of 2-point buckets.

7. Connecticut – The Huskies finished 26-8 overall playing the nation’s 22nd-toughest schedule based on RPI rankings.

8. Memphis – The Tigers played the 19th most difficult non-conference schedule going 10-2 and 3-1 in neutral site games.

9. George Washington – The Colonials’ have only made it out of the first round only three times in their history and not once in the last 20 years.

10. Saint Joseph’s – The Hawks were 5-1 SU in neutral-site games this season.

11. Providence – The Friars’ hit free throws at a 78.1 percent clip, the second-best mark in the country.

12. Harvard – The Crimson led the Ivy League with a 26-4 record SU and had the league’s best ATS record at 16-8.

13. Delaware – The Blue Hens’ 36.6 points per game in the first half ranks 36th in the country while their 42.6 points in the second 20 minutes ranks seventh.

14. N.C. Central – The Eagles finished the season on a 20-game win streak.

15. UW Milwaukee – The Panthers’ 21.6 3-point attempts is 47th in the country but their 7.1 attempts made is only 85th.

16. Coastal Carolina – The Chanticleers finished the year 18-12 SU and played only the nation’s 196th-toughest schedule based on RPI rankings.​

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[CNOTES]

Possible Cinderella teams for each NCAA tournament Regional

Selection Sunday is over and it’s time to start building your brackets. One of the toughest things to do when mapping out the NCAA tournament is uncovering the Cinderellas.

Here are some prime candidates from each regional to shock the field and make a deep run through the field of 64.

South Regional

No. 12 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (31-2, 1-1 ATS)

A typically dangerous No. 12 seed in the South region, Stephen F. Austin hasn’t lost since November. The Lumberjacks have won 27 straight games to take the Southland Conference double.

With the 45th-ranked offense in the country and the 26th-ranked defense, the unheralded mid-major tries to translate one of the nation's longest winning streaks into a deep tournament run.

First, Stephen F. Austin will have to get past mid-major giants VCU as a 8-point underdog. But with the Rams coming off a loss to St. Joseph's in the Atlantic 10 final, there’s hope for the Lumberjacks.


East Regional

No. 11 Providence Friars (23-11, 18-15 ATS)

Benefiting from Villanova's shocking loss to Seton Hall in the Big East tournament, Providence came out on top with a big upset over newcomers Creighton at Madison Square Garden. The Friars are hoping to follow in the footsteps of former conference foe UConn, which took a similar path to the NCAA – and the national title – in 2011.

Backed by leading scorer Bryce Cotton's 21.4 points per game, Providence is the second best team in the country from the free-throw line at 78.1 percent - a number that March Madness historians know can become a factor down in the crunch. That steady hand from the foul line could prove profitable as a 5-point underdog versus North Carolina in the Round of 64.


West Regional

No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys (21-12, 13-15-1 ATS)

Heading into the season, nobody would have predicted the Cowboys to be tournament underdogs. Stillwater prepared for a potential conference title before a long losing streak and a suspension for Marcus Smart derailed their season.

Oklahoma State has one more chance to flip the script on its nightmare of a year with a deep March run, starting as a 1-point underdog against Gonzaga in Round 2.

Okie State has been playing much better basketball recently, with a win over Kansas on its resume. With little expectations left, a lack of pressure may be just what the Cowboys need to ride their high-powered offense (80.3 point per game) to the Final Four.


Midwest Regional

No. 14 Mercer Bears (26-8, 2-3 ATS)

After beating Florida Gulf Coast in the Atlantic Sun Championship, Mercer tries its best FGCU impression with an out-of-nowhere run as a double-digit seed. The Bears have a lot going for them heading into the national tournament.

Mercer has a balanced team that shares the workload on both ends of the floor, ranking in the Top 100 of most major statistical categories. The Bears will test their Cinderella mettle early as 10.5-point underdogs against No. 3 Duke in the Round of 64 Friday.

 

[CNOTES]

The longest and shortest NCAA tournament travel distances

The term "March Madness" is meant to portray the frenetic nature of the NCAA tournament - but it also describes the disparity in travel time between schools participating in the college basketball spectacle.

For some teams, the opening rounds of the tournament represent the closest thing to home-court advantage without actually having it. For others, they mean road trips measuring hundreds or even thousands of miles. And those extra clicks on the odometer can mean the difference between a deep run and a one-and-done.

Here are three of the longest and shortest trips teams face as the NCAA tournament draws near:

Longest trips

Harvard Crimson (No. 12, East Region)

You don't need to be wicked smart to realize that the Ivy League champions have a grueling trip awaiting them. The Crimson must cross the country for its opening two rounds, with a 2,259-mile straight-line distance and a 2,763-mile driving distance between Boston and Spokane, Wash. Harvard tangles with Cincinnati in its first game with Michigan State or Delaware up next if it advances.

Virginia Commonwealth University (No. 5, South Region)

The Rams were rewarded for earning a fifth seed in the South by being made to travel almost exactly as far - at least by air - as Harvard. VCU will make a 2,254-mile straight-line trek (or roughly 2,634 driving miles) from Richmond, Va., to San Diego, Calif., for a Friday evening tilt with No. 12 Stephen F. Austin. The winner of that game will face either UCLA or Tulsa in the next round.

Colorado Buffaloes (No. 8, South Region)

While not the grueling trek Harvard or VCU face, the Buffaloes do have one of the most arduous trips of any of the other 66 teams in the tournament, with a straight distance of 1,572 miles and a driving distance of 1,859 miles from Boulder to Orlando, Fla. Colorado will face Pittsburgh in its opening game, with a daunting matchup against the nation's top team, the Florida Gators, likely awaiting it in the round of 32.


Shortest trips

Duke Blue Devils (No. 3, Midwest Region)

Jabari Parker and friends won't have far to go when the Blue Devils kick off their NCAA tournament Friday afternoon. The boys from Durham, N.C., will only have to travel 28 miles for their opening two rounds, which take place in nearby Raleigh. Duke opens the competition against Mercer and will face either Massachusetts, Iowa or Tennessee in the next round if it prevails.

UCLA Bruins (No. 4 seed, South Region)

On the heels of its stunning Pac-12 championship win over Arizona, the Bruins find themselves dealing with even more good news - they won't have far to go for the opening two rounds of their NCAA tournament schedule. UCLA will head 111 miles down the coast to San Diego, where Bruins fans are expected to support the Bruins in droves. They'll open against Tulsa with a second-round date against VCU or Stephen F. Austin up next.

Florida Gators (No. 1, South Region)

It isn't enough that the Gators are the top-ranked team in the nation entering the tournament - they'll also enjoy the comforts of a rabid fan base that won't have far to go. Florida kicks off its quest for its first national title since 2007 with a pair of games in Orlando - just 112 driving miles from the school's Gainesville campus. The Gators play Albany or Mount St. Mary's in its opener, with the winner of the Colorado-Pittsburgh showdown to follow.

Wisconsin Badgers (No. 2, West Region)

Another program that gets to play it's opening round games in-state is Wisconsin. The Badgers were given a No. 2 seed in the West Region and will drive some 80 miles East to Milwaukee to get their tourney started versus American Thursday. If the Badgers knock off the Eagles, they'll face the winner of Oregon and BYU.

 

[CNOTES]

Motivation key to making money betting on NIT

The "other" March Madness, the National Invite Tournament, starts Tuesday and among the field are a few schools who got their hearts ripped out on Selection Sunday. Bettors should always be aware of a team’s motivation heading into the NIT, whether it’s a massive letdown after missing out on the NCAA or a chance to prove the Section Committee wrong.

Who Cares?

SMU Mustangs (23-9, 17-11 ATS)

One of the biggest tournament snubs in recent history, SMU couldn't even get in as a play-in seed despite a strong season under head coach Larry Brown. The Mustangs can either take their frustrations out on their opponents or pack it in much like Kentucky did against Robert Morris in the first round of the 2013 NIT.

Florida State Seminoles (19-13, 17-13 ATS)

Florida State has a reputation of being a tournament staple, riding recent years of success to deep tournament runs before falling just short this year. The Seminoles will have to settle for being the No. 1 seed in their regional. If the hardnosed Noles don't bring their typical defensive effort to the table, their 200th-ranked offense could pose a problem against Florida Gulf Coast in their first-round matchup.


We Care

St. John's Red Storm (20-12, 12-14 ATS)

A shocking loss to eventual Big East tournament champs, Providence, at Madison Square Garden knocked the Red Storm out of the NCAA tournament. But head coach Steve Lavin should point out to his players that with a long NIT run they will have a chance to avenge their disappointment with the championship in New York.

Iona Gaels (22-10, 15-15 ATS)

Fourth in the nation in scoring and dangerous from downtown, the Gaels were poised to be a potential Cinderella in the NCAA tournament before dropping the Metro tournament championship to rivals Manhattan. Those same numbers should bode well for Iona's chances of making a deep NIT run. Set in a region with FSU, Georgetown, West Virginia and Georgia, the Gaels will also be provided with plenty of opportunities to kill some giants and prove their worth.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Xavier vs. NC State
The Musketeers open up the NCAAs with a play-in game versus an NC State team that is 1-4-1 ATS in is last 6 non-conference contests. Xavier is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Musketeers favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's games and the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

TUESDAY, MARCH 18

Game 531-532: Mt. St. Mary's vs. Albany (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mt. St. Mary's 48.674; Albany 54.259
Dunkel Line: Albany by 5 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: Albany by 2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Albany (-2); Under

Game 533-534: Xavier vs. NC State (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 65.832; NC State 62.506
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 3 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Xavier by 1 1/2; 142
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-1 1/2); Over

Game 535-536: Robert Morris at St. John's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 52.239; St. John's 64.244
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 12
Vegas Line: St. John's by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Robert Morris (+15 1/2)

Game 537-538: Florida Gulf Coast at Florida State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Gulf Coast 53.769; Florida State 61.895
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 8
Vegas Line: Florida State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Florida Gulf Coast (+12)

Game 539-540: West Virginia at Georgetown (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 64.733; Georgetown 63.643
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 1
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 4
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+4)

Game 541-542: Belmont at WI-Green Bay (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 55.563; WI-Green Bay 64.182
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 6
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-6)

Game 543-544: High Point at Minnesota (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: High Point 49.083; Minnesota 70.886
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 22
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-17 1/2)

Game 545-546: Georgia State at Clemson (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 63.128; Clemson 64.019
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1
Vegas Line: Clemson by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (+6 1/2)

Game 547-548: Davidson at Missouri (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 58.883; Missouri 61.055
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 2
Vegas Line: Missouri by 7
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (+7)

Game 549-550: Indiana State at Arkansas (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 53.839; Arkansas 69.678
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 16
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-9 1/2)

Game 551-552: Utah vs. St. Mary's (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 65.865; St. Mary's 58.609
Dunkel Line: Utah by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Utah

Game 555-556: Stony Brook at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stony Brook 50.360; Siena 55.440
Dunkel Line: Siena by 5
Vegas Line: Siena by 3
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-3)

Game 569-570: VMI at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VMI 49.656; Canisius 55.993
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Canisius by 12
Dunkel Pick: VMI (+12)

Game 571-572: Wright State at East Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 57.293; East Carolina 49.856
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Wright State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-2)

Game 573-574: Norfolk State at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 47.893; Eastern Michigan 55.488
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (+11 1/2)

Game 575-576: Chattanooga at East Tennessee State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 42.649; East Tennessee State 51.755
Dunkel Line: East Tennessee State by 9
Vegas Line: East Tennessee State by 6
Dunkel Pick: East Tennessee State (-6)

Game 577-578: Columbia at Valparaiso (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 53.341; Valparaiso 51.847
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbia (+3 1/2)

Game 579-580: Alabama State at Sam Houston State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama State 37.602; Sam Houston State 51.166
Dunkel Line: Sam Houston State by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Sam Houston State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Sam Houston State (-11)

Game 581-582: Portland State at San Diego (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 46.934; San Diego 60.493
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 11
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-11)

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 19

Game 621-622: Texas Southern vs. Cal Poly (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Southern 48.423; Cal Poly 53.759
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 5 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Cal Poly by 3; 130
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (-3); Over

Game 623-624: Tennessee vs. Iowa (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 71.682; Iowa 71.401
Dunkel Line: Even; 149
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+2 1/2); Over

THURSDAY, MARCH 20

Game 709-710: Dayton vs. Ohio State (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 63.934; Ohio State 67.658
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 3 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 6; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+6); Over

Game 711-712: Western Michigan vs. Syracuse (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 55.991; Syracuse 70.805
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 15; 121
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 12 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-12 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: St. Joseph's vs. Connecticut (6:55 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 65.307; Connecticut 66.702
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+4 1/2); Under

Game 715-716: WI-Milwaukee vs. Villanova (9:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 50.016; Villanova 73.492
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 23 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Villanova by 16; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-16); Over

Game 719-720: Pittsburgh vs. Colorado (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 69.871; Colorado 61.781
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 133
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Over

Game 723-724: Manhattan vs. Louisville (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 63.468; Louisville 76.569
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 13; 139
Vegas Line: Louisville by 16; 143
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+16); Under

Game 725-726: BYU vs. Oregon (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 63.606; Oregon 71.611
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 8; 162
Vegas Line: Oregon by 5; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-5); Over

Game 727-728: American vs. Wisconsin (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: American 52.300; Wisconsin 72.799
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 20 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 13; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-13); Over

Game 729-730: Arizona State vs. Texas (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 67.413; Texas 64.675
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 3; 147
Vegas Line: Texas by 2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+2); Over

Game 731-732: Wofford vs. Michigan (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 54.631; Michigan 68.193
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 13 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Michigan by 16; 126
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+16); Under

Game 733-734: Harvard vs. Cincinnati (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 65.925; Cincinnati 66.883
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 117
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+3); Under

Game 735-736: Delaware vs. Michigan State (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 56.733; Michigan State 68.342
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 11 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 14; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+14); Under

Game 737-738: North Dakota State vs. Oklahoma (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 66.353; Oklahoma 67.846
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 1 1/2; 153
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 4; 150
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (+4); Over

Game 739-740: New Mexico State vs. San Diego State (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 61.174; San Diego State 65.509
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2; 134
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 7 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+7 1/2); Over

FRIDAY, MARCH 21

Game 823-824: Mercer vs. Duke (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 55.402; Duke 70.933
Dunkel Line: Duke by 15 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Duke by 12 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-12 1/2); Under

Game 825-826: Coastal Carolina vs. Virginia (9:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 53.168; Virginia 71.410
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 18; 117
Vegas Line: Virginia by 21; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Coastal Carolina (+21); Under

Game 827-828: George Washington vs. Memphis (6:55 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 62.426; Memphis 67.993
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 5 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Memphis by 3; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3); Over

Game 829-830: Stanford vs. New Mexico (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 68.385; New Mexico 68.202
Dunkel Line: Even; 130
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 4; 137
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+4); Under

Game 831-832: Eastern Kentucky vs. Kansas (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 57.716; Kansas 70.742
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 13; 152
Vegas Line: Kansas by 15; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (+15); Over

Game 835-836: Kansas State vs. Kentucky (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 63.668; Kentucky 71.295
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 5; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-5); Under

Game 837-838: Nebraska vs. Baylor (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 66.260; Baylor 71.837
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 5 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Baylor by 3; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-3); Over

Game 839-840: UL-Lafayette vs. Creighton (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 55.892; Creighton 72.541
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 17; 158
Vegas Line: Creighton by 13 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-13 1/2); Over

Game 841-842: Providence vs. North Carolina (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 63.636; North Carolina 70.487
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 7; 139
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 4; 143
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-4); Under

Game 843-844: North Carolina Central vs. Iowa State (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina Central 62.369; Iowa State 67.345
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 5; 138
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 9; 144
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina Central (+9); Under

Game 845-846: Stephen F. Austin vs. VCU (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stephen F. Austin 62.457; VCU 66.241
Dunkel Line: VCU by 4; 129
Vegas Line: VCU by 6 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Stephen F. Austin (+6 1/2);

Game 847-848: Tulsa vs. UCLA (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 61.629; UCLA 73.110
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 11 1/2; 154
Vegas Line: UCLA by 9; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-9); Over

Game 849-850: Weber State vs. Arizona (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 53.314; Arizona 70.720
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 17 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Arizona by 20; 127
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (+20); Under

Game 851-852: Oklahoma State vs. Gonzaga (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 68.094; Gonzaga 69.274
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 1; 143
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 2 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (+2 1/2); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 18

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MOUNT ST MARYS (16 - 16) vs. ALBANY (18 - 14) - 3/18/2014, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALBANY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
ALBANY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
ALBANY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
ALBANY is 1-0 straight up against MOUNT ST MARYS over the last 3 seasons




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NC STATE (21 - 13) vs. XAVIER (21 - 12) - 3/18/2014, 9:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
XAVIER is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
XAVIER is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
XAVIER is 167-128 ATS (+26.2 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
XAVIER is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
XAVIER is 179-138 ATS (+27.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
XAVIER is 109-74 ATS (+27.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
NC STATE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
NC STATE is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
NC STATE is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
NC STATE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
NC STATE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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ROBERT MORRIS (21 - 13) at ST JOHNS (20 - 12) - 3/18/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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FLA GULF COAST (22 - 12) at FLORIDA ST (19 - 13) - 3/18/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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W VIRGINIA (17 - 15) at GEORGETOWN (17 - 14) - 3/18/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
W VIRGINIA is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGETOWN over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA is 1-0 straight up against GEORGETOWN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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BELMONT (24 - 9) at WI-GREEN BAY (24 - 6) - 3/18/2014, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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HIGH POINT (16 - 14) at MINNESOTA (20 - 13) - 3/18/2014, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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GEORGIA ST (25 - 8) at CLEMSON (20 - 12) - 3/18/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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DAVIDSON (20 - 12) at MISSOURI (22 - 11) - 3/18/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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INDIANA ST (23 - 10) at ARKANSAS (21 - 11) - 3/18/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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UTAH (21 - 11) at ST MARYS-CA (22 - 11) - 3/18/2014, 11:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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STONY BROOK (23 - 10) at SIENA (15 - 17) - 3/18/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


VMI (19 - 12) at CANISIUS (21 - 12) - 3/18/2014, 7:00 PM
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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WRIGHT ST (20 - 14) at E CAROLINA (17 - 16) - 3/18/2014, 7:00 PM
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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NORFOLK ST (19 - 14) at E MICHIGAN (21 - 14) - 3/18/2014, 7:00 PM
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


UT-CHATTANOOGA (18 - 14) at E TENN ST (18 - 15) - 3/18/2014, 8:00 PM
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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COLUMBIA (19 - 12) at VALPARAISO (18 - 15) - 3/18/2014, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ALABAMA ST (19 - 12) at SAM HOUSTON ST (23 - 10) - 3/18/2014, 8:30 PM
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


PORTLAND ST (17 - 14) at SAN DIEGO (16 - 16) - 3/18/2014, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 18

I don't want to spend lot of time on consolation tournaments, but will pass along a little information, if I have some.........

NCAA play-in games (Dayton)
Mt St Mary's hasn't played in week after winning NEC title game out at Robert Morris; they've won four games in row, were down 19 with 9:10 left in first-round win over St Francis. MSM is 0-2 vs teams in America East, losing by 6 to UMBC, 4 to Binghamton. Albany won title game on Long Island Saturday afternoon, had 5-hour bus ride home, hasn't had a lot of time to practice since; they're 6-1 in last seven games. Great Danes want slower tempo, have more experienced team- they played Duke in NCAAs last March. MSM coach is an old VCU assistamt- they want to play faster, press.

Xavier will have crowd support playing in Dayton; Musketeers are 6-8 in last 14 games- their big guy Stainbrook played only 24:00 in couple of Big East tourney games (foot). Xavier is 6-10 in road/neutral games, but beat Wake Forest by 15 in only game vs ACC opponent. Wolfpack won four of last five games, is 8-7 in road/neutral games- they lost by 11 to Cincinnati, Xavier's crosstown rival. Both teams are used to being in the NCAAs, but not this scenario; Xavier's last game was Friday, State's on Saturday, so Musketeers, with less travel time, have more prep time. Wolfpack's Warren will be best player on court.

Notes on Other Games- Tuesday
-- Robert Morris won NEC by two games, lost title game at home, has to play St John's team that is 11-4 in last 15 games. Colonials played an NIT game at home LY, beating Kentucky.
-- Florida Gulf Coast lost America Sun title game at home, visits Florida State team that went 5-3 in last eight ACC games. Eagles were in Sweet 16 of NCAAs LY; are they excited to be here?
-- West Virginia/Georgetown are both offensively challenged; both sides lost five of their last seven games. Hoyas won last four home games.

-- Belmont/Green Bay are both regular season champs who got upset in conference tourney; Bruins won 14 of last 17 games, haven't played in 10 days. Green Bay PG Sykes had bum ankle during Green Bay's OT loss in Horizon tourney, also ten days ago. Phoenix won 19 of its last 22 games overall.
-- Minnesota is 7-10 in last 17 games; they haven't played since losing on Friday in Big Dozen tourney. High Point lost by 35 to Georgetown, 21 to Syracuse, 41 to Arkansas- they haven't played in 11 days.
-- Georgia State blew 10-point lead with 4:00 to go Sunday, lost in OT in Louisiana, now is playing in Clemson 52 hours later. Tigers got beat in last 0;05 by Duke Friday- their last six games were all decided by 5 or less points, or in overtime.

-- Missouri is 15-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Davidson is well-coached, hasn't played in nine days; they're 4-10 in non-SoCon games, 1-6 vs top 100 teams, with only win vs Georgia and several ugly losses.
-- Arkansas fell off bubble by getting upset in last two games- they won last five home games. Indiana State was 2nd-best team in MVC, but isn't very athletic- they're 1-6 vs top 100 teams.
-- Utah was 2-7 on road in Pac-12, winning at USC/Cal; they beat BYU of WCC by 17 in rivalry game. St Mary's hasn't played in 9 days since losing WCC semis- they're 3-4 in last seven games overall.

-- Stony Brook lost America East final at home to Albany, now has to take 5-hour bus ride north to Albany to play Siena, which might be into this, since it is Patsos' first year with Saints. Siena won five of its last seven home games, with both losses in OT. Saints had more prep time.
-- VMI plays 3rd-fastest games in country; they've won nine of last 12 games, haven't played in 10 days. Canisius lost tough game to Iona in MAAC semis nine days ago; they start four seniors.
-- Wright State was handed home game in Horizon final, then laid an egg and lost; now they're visiting East Carolina squad that lost 14 of last 21 games after 10-2 start. ECU played four non-D-I teams. Oy.

-- Eastern Michigan is Syracuse clone that plays 2-3 zone; they won six of last eight games, with both losses to Toledo. Norfolk State doesn't do a lot with 3-pointers, which could be a problem here.
-- Chattanooga is coached by former VCU assistant, so they're going to press/run; they went 4-6 last ten games after starting out 8-0 in SoCon. East Tennessee State is 14-5 vs teams ranked outside top 200.

-- Valparaiso lost four of last six games; they're in bottom 10 in country in turning ball over. Columbia hasn't played in nine days- they only lost by 9 at Michigan State, by 6 to St John's.
-- Sam Houston State lost Southland final to SF Austin Saturday; they won pair of SWAC games this year, beating Prairie View in double OT, beating Pine Bluff by 26. Alabama State lost SWAC semifinal Friday.
-- Portland State won six of last eight games; they lost by 16 at home to Portland of WCC- their last game was Friday. San Diego hasn't played since losing WCC tourney in Vegas 10 days ago- they're 3-6 in last nine.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MARCH 18

7:00 PM
NORFOLK STATE vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN
No trends available
Eastern Michigan is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Eastern Michigan's last 7 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 7:00 PM
ROBERT MORRIS vs. ST. JOHN'S
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. John's last 6 games
St. John's is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 7:00 PM
CHATTANOOGA vs. EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Chattanooga is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Chattanooga is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against East Tennessee St
No trends available

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 7:00 PM
STONY BROOK vs. SIENA
No trends available
Siena is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Siena is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 7:00 PM
WEST VIRGINIA vs. GEORGETOWN
West Virginia is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Georgetown
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of West Virginia's last 6 games on the road
Georgetown is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Georgetown is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing West Virginia

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 7:00 PM
VMI vs. CANISIUS
No trends available
Canisius is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
Canisius is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 7:00 PM
WRIGHT STATE vs. EAST CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wright State's last 6 games on the road
Wright State is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of East Carolina's last 8 games at home
East Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 7:00 PM
FLORIDA GULF COAST vs. FLORIDA STATE
No trends available
Florida State is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home
Florida State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 8:05 PM
COLUMBIA vs. VALPARAISO
Columbia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Columbia is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Valparaiso is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Valparaiso's last 14 games

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 8:15 PM
HIGH POINT vs. MINNESOTA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 8:15 PM
BELMONT vs. WISC-GREEN BAY
Belmont is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Belmont's last 7 games on the road
Wisc-Green Bay is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wisc-Green Bay's last 7 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 9:00 PM
GEORGIA STATE vs. CLEMSON
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Georgia State's last 9 games on the road
Georgia State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Clemson is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Clemson's last 5 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 9:00 PM
INDIANA STATE vs. ARKANSAS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana State's last 6 games on the road
Indiana State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Arkansas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas's last 7 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 9:00 PM
DAVIDSON vs. MISSOURI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Davidson's last 5 games on the road
Davidson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Missouri is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Missouri is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 10:00 PM
PORTLAND STATE vs. SAN DIEGO
Portland State is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Portland State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 18, 11:00 PM
UTAH vs. ST. MARY'S
Utah is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Mary's last 5 games at home
St. Mary's is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home


MARCH 19

7:00 PM
HAMPTON vs. PENN STATE
No trends available
Penn State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Penn State is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
ILLINOIS vs. BOSTON UNIVERSITY
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Illinois's last 9 games on the road
Illinois is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
No trends available

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE vs. OLD DOMINION
No trends available
Old Dominion is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Old Dominion's last 6 games

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
AKRON vs. IUPU FORT WAYNE
Akron is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Akron is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
No trends available

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
CLEVELAND STATE vs. OHIO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland State's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Ohio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
QUINNIPIAC vs. YALE
Quinnipiac is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Yale is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Yale is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
TOWSON vs. USC UPSTATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Towson's last 8 games on the road
Towson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
No trends available

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 7:30 PM
IONA vs. LOUISIANA TECH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Iona's last 6 games on the road
Iona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana Tech's last 6 games
Louisiana Tech is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 8:00 PM
WYOMING vs. TEXAS A&M
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Wyoming's last 10 games on the road
Wyoming is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Texas A&M is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Texas A&M is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 8:00 PM
PRINCETON vs. TULANE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Princeton's last 7 games on the road
Princeton is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Tulane is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tulane's last 11 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 8:00 PM
VERMONT vs. GEORGIA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Georgia's last 11 games

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 8:05 PM
MOREHEAD STATE vs. ILLINOIS STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Morehead State's last 5 games on the road
Morehead State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Illinois State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Illinois State's last 11 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 8:05 PM
MURRAY STATE vs. MISSOURI STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Murray State's last 5 games on the road
Murray State is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Missouri State's last 5 games at home
Missouri State is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 8:07 PM
NORTH DAKOTA vs. NEBRASKA OMAHA
North Dakota is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
North Dakota is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games on the road
No trends available

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 8:30 PM
TOLEDO vs. SOUTHERN MISS
Toledo is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Toledo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Southern Miss is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Southern Miss is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 9:00 PM
UC IRVINE vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UC Irvine's last 5 games on the road
UC Irvine is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Southern Methodist's last 10 games at home
Southern Methodist is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 9:00 PM
TEXAS A&M C.C. vs. NORTHERN COLORADO
No trends available
Northern Colorado is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Northern Colorado is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 9:00 PM
FRESNO STATE vs. TEXAS EL PASO
Fresno State is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Fresno State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Texas El Paso is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Fresno State

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 9:10 PM
IOWA vs. TENNESSEE
No trends available
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 10:00 PM
RADFORD vs. OREGON STATE
No trends available
Oregon State is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Oregon State is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 10:00 PM
LSU vs. SAN FRANCISCO
LSU is 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
LSU is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 10:00 PM
PACIFIC vs. GRAND CANYON
Pacific is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pacific's last 8 games on the road
Grand Canyon is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Grand Canyon is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games

See more trends!
MARCH 19, 10:30 PM
UTAH VALLEY vs. CALIFORNIA
Utah Valley is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Utah Valley is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games on the road

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA Round 1 betting preview: Mount St. Mary's vs. Albany
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Albany Great Danes (-2.5, 141.5)

Although Albany has only one regular-season title in its 15-year Division I history, the Great Danes have turned into a regular visitor to the NCAA tournament. They will attempt to secure their first ever NCAA tournament victory Tuesday against fellow No.16 seed Mount St. Mary’s in a first-round game in Dayton, Ohio. Albany earned its fourth automatic bid in the last nine seasons by winning six of their final seven, knocking off the two 20-win teams in the American East tourney in the process.

The Great Danes held their opponents to an average of 55.5 points in those six late-season victories, something that figures to be a difficult challenge against the Mountaineers. Mount St. Mary’s, which led the Northeast Conference in scoring offense (76.3) as well as 3-point makes (284) and attempts (797), became the 24th team with a non-winning record to make the Big Dance with a surprising win over Robert Morris in the NEC title game. The postseason stay for the winner of this contest figures to be a short one, however, as the winner will face No. 1 overall seed Florida on Thursday.

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV

LINE HISTORY: Albany opened as 1.5-opint faves and now sit at -2.5. The total opened at 141.5.

INJURY WATCH: Albany: guard Anthony Odunsi, out indefinitely (concussion).

WHY BET MOUNT ST. MARY’S (16-16): The Mountaineers closed the season on a four-game winning streak, shooting at least 50 percent in three of their final four games – including 60.4 percent in the NEC championship game. Mount St. Mary’s is one of eight teams in the nation with three active 1,000-point scorers, including Julian Norfleet (1,598 points), Sam Prescott (1,196) and NEC tournament MVP Rashad Whack (1,059) – all of whom were named to the all-tournament team. The Mountaineers score 34.9 percent of their points beyond the arc (17th-most in the country), but rank sixth-to-last in field-goal percentage defense (49.3).

WHY BET ALBANY (18-14): The Great Danes enter their second straight Big Dance with an experienced lineup that starts three seniors, a junior and a sophomore – all of whom were a part of their second-round NCAA tournament loss to Duke last season. Peter Hooley, the second-leading scorer in the AEC (15.7) and lone underclassman in the starting lineup, needed only 20 minutes to erupt for 30 points in Albany’s conference quarterfinal win on March 8. Hooley, who was named tournament MVP after averaging 23.7 points at the event, finished ninth in the conference in 3-point percentage (40.1) and first in free-throw accuracy (86 percent).

TRENDS:

* Mount St. Mary's is 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
* Albany is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Mount St. Mary's last four neutral site games.
* Under is 5-1 in Albany's last six non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-eight percent of the wagers are on Albany at -2.5

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA Round 1 betting preview: Xavier vs. North Carolina State
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Xavier Musketeers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (+2.5, 142)

North Carolina State’s NCAA tournament hopes hung by a thread about two weeks ago, but that was before T.J. Warren went on a historic scoring spree. Warren, who looks to guide his team past fellow No. 12 seed Xavier on Tuesday in a first-round matchup in Dayton, Ohio, averaged 31.2 points over the his last five contests – including consecutive 40-point games. As a result, the Wolfpack won four of their final five after enduring a 1-4 stretch following a home loss to Miami (Fla.) on March 1.

After facing the nation’s leading scorer in Creighton’s Doug McDermott three times since the middle of January, squaring off against the ACC Player of the Year will hardly be a new challenge for a Musketeer team that has faced its share of dominant scorers. Xavier finished in a tie with Providence for third place in its inaugural season in the Big East and returns to the NCAA tournament for the eighth time in nine years after missing the Big Dance last season. The winner of this contest will head to Orlando, Fla. and face No. 5 seed Saint Louis on Thursday.

TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, truTV

LINE HISTORY: NC State opened as 2-point dogs, moved to +1.5, back to +2 and up to the current +2.5. The total opened 142.

INJURY WATCH: Xavier - Kamall Richards (Knee, out for season)

WHY BET XAVIER (21-12 SU, 18-13 ATS, 15-16 O/U): Working against the Musketeers is their recent history against McDermott, who averaged 31.3 points against them in their three meetings. Matt Stainbrook suffered a left MCL injury on March 3 against Seton Hall, which caused him to miss the next game and contributed to the Musketeers’ 1-3 finish. Stainbrook was limited to 24 minutes over the Musketeers’ last two contests, making a deep run by Xavier unlikely unless it can get more court time from a player who leads his team in rebounding (7.3) and ranks second in the Big East in field-goal percentage (55.3).

WHY BET NORTH CAROLINA STATE (21-13 SU, 18-12-1 ATS, 17-13-1 O/U): Warren became the first ACC player to score 40 points in consecutive games since Georgia Tech's Kenny Anderson in December 1990 and the first Wolfpack player to accomplish the feat since program legend David Thompson in December 1974. The nation’s third-leading scorer was held to four points in North Carolina State’s second-round loss to Temple last season, but has posted at least 20 points in 17 straight games. Ralston Turner is the only other player to carry a double-figure scoring average (10.2) and the only regular to shoot better than 28 percent from beyond the arc.

TRENDS:

* Wolfpack are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games.
* Musketeers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 8-1 in Wolfpack last nine overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Musketeers last seven Tuesday games.

CONSENSUS: 61 percent of wagers are on North Carolina State.

 

[CNOTES]

First Set of Games:


Tuesday, March 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Mount St. Mary's - 6:40 PM ET Albany -2.5 500 *****
Albany -

Robert Morris - 7:00 PM ET St. John's -13.5 500 *****
St. John's -

Florida Gulf Coast - 7:00 PM ET Florida Gulf Coast +10.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Florida St. -

West Virginia - 7:00 PM ET West Virginia +4.5 500
Georgetown -

VMI - 7:00 PM ET VMI +11 500
Canisius -

Wright St. - 7:00 PM ET Wright St. -3 500 *****
East Carolina -

Norfolk State - 7:00 PM ET Norfolk State +11.5 500
Eastern Michigan -

Chattanooga - 7:00 PM ET East Tennessee St. -5.5 500
East Tennessee St. -

Stony Brook - 7:00 PM ET Stony Brook +2 500 *****
Siena -




---------------------------------------------------------------------



Alabama St. - 8:00 PM ET Alabama St. +9.5 500
Sam Houston St. -

Columbia - 8:05 PM ET Columbia +3.5 500
Valparaiso -

Belmont - 8:15 PM ET Green Bay -6.5 500 *****
Green Bay -

High Point - 8:15 PM ET Minnesota -17.5 500
Minnesota -

Indiana St. - 9:00 PM ET Indiana St. +9.5 500 *****
Arkansas -

Davidson - 9:00 PM ET Davidson +6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Missouri -

Georgia St - 9:00 PM ET Georgia St +6 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Clemson -

Xavier - 9:10 PM ET Xavier -3.5 500 *****
N.C. State -

Portland St. - 10:00 PM ET Portland St. +9.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
San Diego -

Utah - 11:00 PM ET Utah +1 500 TRIPLE PLAY
St. Mary's -

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- Albany 71, Mt St Mary's 64-- Great Danes play Florida next.

-- Jimmy Rollins needs 61 hits this year to become Phillies' all-time leader in hits and he has a no-trade contract. Chances are he gets the record.

-- If Rollins gets 434+ plate appearances, his $11M deal for '15 kicks in. Wouldn't bet on that happening.

-- Robert Griffin III won't wear his knee brace this fall, or so he says.

-- Cam Newton is having ankle sergery this week (why in March?) is expected back for the start of training camp. Why did he wait?

-- For first time in their history. Celtics went winless (0-15) on road against Western Conference teams.

*****

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......

13) How are these tournament games going to be officiated? New rules? Old rules? Australian Rules? Holy Cross-Brown CIT game Monday night had total of 10 foul shots, but that was with refs who weren’t trying to impress evaluators and move on in the NCAA tournament.

Former Wake Forest coach Dino Gaudio said on ESPNU Sunday night he thought the new rules this season hurt Duke. Interesting point. If the powers-that-be are hung up on enforcing new rules, there could be games with lot of foul shots being taken.

12) When, if ever, will a 1-seed lose to a 16-seed? Not this year; too many upsets in the smaller conference tourneys weakened the bottom of this field.

11) VCU’s run to the Final Four legitimized the First Four concept; which of the upper-level First Four teams can make a run this year?

10) Speaking of which, just when Tennessee coach Cuonzo Martin got the heat off him by making it to the NCAAs, Auburn hit a grand slam and hired former Vols’ coach Bruce Pearl, making the Tigers a player in basketball for the first time in over a decade.

9) Auburn is going to get good, and fast. Whenever a quality coach follows a quality recruiter, it is a bonanza for that school. Pearl is a proven winner in that league. Tony Barbee recruited some talent to the Plains, now Pearl will win with those players and rehabilitate a career that was interrupted by troubles with the NCAA.

8) Providence beat Creighton Saturday night by pushing the Bluejays around inside; Friars have so little depth, can they do the same thing with North Carolina, which has bigger, tougher (if less skilled) guys than Crieghton?

7) Friars and St Joe’s are two teams with almost zero depth, but with TV timeouts longer during the NCAA tournament, conditioning should be less of a problem than if refs blow a tight whistle, like they did in the Providence-Seton Hall game Friday. Hawks also play six guys but they’re six pretty good guys.

6) Does winning one of the bigger conference tournaments give you momentum into the next weekend?

Random samples:
ACC tourney champ covered five of its last six first round NCAA games.
Big X champ is 4-2 vs spread in its first round NCAA game the last six years.
Pac-12 tourney champ covered its first NCAA game four of last five years.

That’s a small sample, but early returns would say that it does help some.

5) Las Vegas radio host Ken Thomson, a keen observer of college hoop, pointed out Monday that this year’s Atlantic 13 is like LY’s Mountain West, when they had a lot of teams in the NCAAs but then struggled in the tournament, making people think the bids weren’t warranted.

I’m not crazy about Saint Louis or UMass, but overall the A-13 has survived the conference juggling and emerged fairly strong.

4) I’ve got a morbid curiosity about how the beaten #1 seeds will do in the NIT. Robert Morris upset St John's in Queens Tuesday night.

3) Nebraska coach Tim Miles was talking on TV the other night about how he had Texas A&M WR Mike Evans in Lincoln on a basketball recruiting visit and that he was a very good hooper. Am thinking Evans made the right decision choosing football.

2) UNLV assistant coach Heath Schroyer is leaving for the head coaching job at Tennessee-Martin, one of the hardest D-I jobs in America. Rumor has former LMU coach Max Good replacing Schroyer on the Rebels’ bench.

1) Boston College fired Steve Donahue, which makes you wonder if Pearl hadn’t taken the Auburn job, would his alma mater have come after him and if so, would Pearl be headed to Boston right now instead of Alabama?

 

[CNOTES]

Which NCAA tournament seed is the best bet?

Much is made about the No. 5 versus No. 12 matchup in Round 2 of the NCAA tournament. It seems like every March, at least one No. 12 stuns a No. 5 in one of the opening upsets of March Madness.

Last March, the No. 12 seeds were a bountiful 3-1 SU and ATS against the No. 5 seeds. And, going back to 2007, No. 12 seeds are 12-16 SU but 16-12 ATS versus fifth-seeded opponents.

This year, the No. 12 seeds already in place are Stephen F. Austin (+6.5 vs. VCU), Harvard (+2.5 vs. Cincinnati), and North Dakota State (+4 vs. Oklahoma). The other No. 12-versus-No. 5 matchup will be decided in Round 1, with the winner of the No. 12 play-in game between Xavier and North Carolina State facing No. 5 Saint Louis in Round 2.

The No. 6-No. 11 games are nearly as treacherous for the better seed, with No. 6 teams going 16-12 SU but 13-14-1 ATS. The No. 6 seeds went 3-1 SU and ATS in last year’s tournament, with No. 6 UCLA getting beat by 20 points against No. 11 Minnesota. However, the Golden Gophers were 3-point favorites for that Round of 64 contest.

On the other end of the scale, No. 3 seeds are a consistent cover in their opening game versus No. 14 seeds – more so than No.1 and No. 2 teams.

In 2013, No. 3 seeds went 3-1 but just 2-2 ATS, with third-ranked New Mexico losing outright to No. 14 Harvard as a 10.5-point favorite in the Round of 64. But, looking back over the past seven NCAA tournaments, No. 3 seeds are 26-2 SU and 19-9 ATS.

No. 1 seeds are undefeated in the NCAA tournament, holding a perfect 28-0 SU record since 2007. They’ve also been a solid bet to cover the spread, going 17-10-1 ATS in those games. However, last March, the No. 1 seeds finished the Round of 64 just 1-3 ATS with eventual national champion Louisville as the only top team to come through for bettors in the second round.

Virginia faces the biggest spread of this year’s No. 1 seeds (so far), giving 21 points to opening opponent No. 16 Coastal Carolina. No. 1 Arizona is a 19.5-point favorite versus No. 16 Weber State. The other two No. 1 seeds – Florida and Wichita State – will have their Round 2 foes decided in the play-in games.

The No. 4-versus-No. 13 games have produced a similar record as the No. 1-No. 16 contests, going 21-7 SU and 17-11 ATS since 2007. Fourth-seeded programs were 3-1 SU and ATS in 2013, with No. 4 Kansas State as the lone blemish. The Wildcats were defeated 63-61 by No. 13 LaSalle as 6-point favorites.

Overall, the higher-seeded team is 164-60 SU and 123-97-4 ATS in Round 2 of the NCAA tournament since 2007 – covering 56 percent of the time in that stretch.

Note: The No. 3 versus No. 14 games have produced a 9-19 Over/Under record in the past seven NCAA tournament games – playing below the total 68 percent of the time.

 

[CNOTES]

Best Over and Under NCAA tournament total bets

For total bettors, March Madness isn’t about upsets or Cinderellas – it’s all about Overs and Unders. Who gives a crap if a No. 2 seed shocked a No. 15? Did they top the total or not?

We look at which 2014 NCAA tournament teams have the best Over and Under records during the Big Dance, going back to 1998.

Best Over

Kentucky: 30-17-1 63.5%
Stanford: 16-8 67%
Ohio State: 22-12 65%
Gonzaga: 22-10 69%
BYU: 9-4 69%

Best Under

Duke: 24-32 57%
Kansas: 23-31 57%
UCLA: 14-20 59%
North Carolina State: 4-10 71%
New Mexico: 3-7 70%
Kansas State: 4-6 60%
UL Lafayette: 0-3 100%