NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wednesday, March 19
Wednesday's play-in games (Dayton)
Cal Poly was #7 seed in Big West after being picked #2 preseason; they were 2-9 in last 11 games before winning Big West tourney. Mustangs play slower style; this is their first NCAA. Last Big West team to win tourney game was Pacific in ’05- this is league’s first play-in game. Texas Southern is most experienced team in country; C Murray played for West Virginia LY. Coach Davis once led Indiana in national title game, so this is better than normal SWAC team, but they did lose 87-80 at Big West’s Fullerton back in December- they also lost by 9 at Texas Tech, 26 at Stanford, 15 at Miami.
Iowa lost six of last seven games to fall into this game; their coach’s son is having surgery during day Wednesday, not 100% sure McCaffery will be at game. Hawkeyes were 15-3 on Jan 19 but are now 4-8 vs top 50 teams; this is their first NCAA since 2006. Tennessee is in NCAAs for first time since Pearl left; they’ve won five of last six games, losing by 7 in SEC tourney to Florida. Vols are just 2-6 vs teams in top 50, but they beat Virginia by 35 in December. Iowa subs a lot, wants to play fast but they’re inferior defensively to Tennessee. Vols have edge in experience. Winner of this game will be a problem for UMass.
Notes on Other Games- Wednesday
-- Illinois won five of last seven games; they're 11-2 outside conference play. Boston U won at Maryland in Devember, lost by 17 at UConn, 6 at St Joe's- they start three sophs, are playing for the future.
-- Iona won 14 of last 16 games; they lost MAAC title game by 3; they are 3-6 outside MAAC (#15 non-conf schedule). Louisiana Tech won 10 of its last 12 games; they're a very experienced team.
-- Vermont went 15-1 in America East, lost 91-90 at Duke, making 31 of 41 inside arc. Georgia won nine of last 12 games; they were only 6-6 in their non-conference games. Vermont starts four seniors.
-- Toledo beat FAU by 20, its only game vs C-USA team; they're 27-6 overall, better on offense than defense. Southern Miss won six of its last seven games, winning at UTEP, losing to La Tech in C-USA tourney.
-- SMU is best team not to make NCAAs; you never know how teams react to being snubbed (see St John's last nite). Mustangs lost last three games overall. Cal-Irvine won ten of its last twelve games.
-- San Francisco won six of last seven games, losing to BYU in OT in WCC tourney; Dons only have one senior in rotation, so they're trying to get better for next year. LSU lost seven of its last twelve games.
-- Cal is so erratic, no idea how they'll play; they're 5-9 in last 14 games, with last three decided by 4 or less points. Utah Valley was #1 seed in WAC, got beat in tourney- they lost by 15 at Oregon in only game with a Pac-12 teams this season.
-- Old Dominion is 16-17, 6-9 outside C-USA; they don't start a senior. South Dakota State won nine of last 11 games but got beat by Ft Wayne in Summit tourney. Jackrabbits start three seniors.
-- Penn State lost seven of last ten games; Lions are 9-4 outside league play, 4-0 vs teams outside top 200, with all four wins by 12+ points. Hampton lost by 29 at Virginia in its highest-profile game this year.
-- Princeton won its last five games, is 20-8, winning by 14 at Rice in its only game vs C-USA team. Tulane is 17-16 despite kids transferring in wake of their not getting in Big East. Green Wave is 8-7 out of league, and that was 6th-easiest non-league schedule in country.
-- Morehead State lost four of last five games after being 19-9- they turn ball over 22% of time, in bottom 20 in country. Illinois State had all new starters this year, went 9-9 in MVC- they beat Tennessee state by 6 in only game against an OVC team.
-- Wyoming lost five of last six games; they lost top scorer Nance with 8 games left, struggled after that. Texas A&M lost four of last five games, with last three losses by 5 or less points, or in OT.
-- UTEP lost C-USA tourney at home; they've won 18 of last 23 games. Fresno won nine of last 12 games, but Guerrero is just 4 of his last 33 behind arc. UTEP beat Colorado State by 8, only game vs MW team.
-- Radford is 21-12 this year after being 24-49 previous three years, so they're excited to be improved, winning seven of last 10 games. Oregon State starts three seniors, but lost seven of last ten games anyway.
-- Yale lost four of last five games after being tied atop Ivy; they don't start any seniors, are building to next year. Quinnipiac went 15-7 in its first MAAC season, but lost three of last four games, losing by 19 in a conference tournament loss. Bobcats are very good rebounding team.
-- Towson State is 23-10 after being 1-31 two years ago; they're 7-1 in last eight games, winning last four roiad games. SC-Upstate is 19-14, but 0-3 in OT games, losing twice in OT to conference champ Mercer.
-- Ohio U won four of last five games but lost by 6 to Akron in tourney; Bobcats start three seniors. Cleveland State won 10 of last 12 games but lost to Wright State by 5 in tourney- they don't start any seniors.
-- Fort Wayne lost Summit final to North Dakota State; Mastadons lost by 7 at Miami, beat Bowling Green by 5 in only games vs MAC foes. Akron won four of last five games, but blew 17-point halftime lead and lost in OT to Western Michigan in MAC semis.
-- Murray State is 18-11 despite having to play freshman PG, losing its last two games by 3 points each; Racers beat Evansville by hoop in only game vs MVC opponent. Missouri State is 4-5 in its last nine games.
-- North Dakota won six of last eight games but lost Big Sky final four nights ago in Utah; UND split its two games with Summit League clubs. Omaha lost five of its last six games, after being 15-9 at one point.
-- Northern Colorado lost five of last seven games- they start 3 seniors, but lost last two home games. Corpus Christi won seven of last eight games, but got upset in first round of Southland tourney.
-- Pacific lost five of last six games, went 6-13 in its first year in WCC; Tigers start four seniors, so this was disappointing year. Grand Canyon is coached by Dan Majerle; hey're 0-2 vs WCC teams this year, losing by 3-11 points.
Thursday's NCAA games
Ohio State won its last four first round games, covered last three, winning by 29-29-25 points, but those were as 1-2 seeds; they’ve made Sweet 16 last four years. #6 seeds are 7-1 vs spread in first round last two years, after being 2-10 three years before that (9-11 last five years). Last year was just second time this century no #6 seed got beat in first round. Dayton is in tourney for first time since ’09, second time in decade; Buckeyes won’t play them during regular season. OSU is more experienced, teams play roughly same tempo, Flyers sub more. Buckeyes are 9-4 in last 13 games. Dayton is 3-6 vs top 50 teams.
There are 351 D-I basketball teams; Wisconsin ranks #338 in time per possession, American #339. Teams have roughly same experience level, sub the same amount, both play slow, just Wisconsin does it in a way better league. American was 3-5 in last eight games before going 3-0 in Patriot tournament. Last year was first time in seven years Ryan lost his first round game; last time he was #2 seed, Badgers covered by half-point in first round, laying 12.5 to Corpus Christi in ’07. Patriot League teams lost six of last seven in tournament, but covered four of last six in this round. #2 seeds went 2-2 vs spread in first round in each of the last six years.
Over last 18 years, underdogs are 44-28 (61.1%) vs spread in these 5-12 first round games, with #12's 5-3 SU last two years. Cincinnati tied for AAC title but is just 5-4 in last nine games- three of those losses were Louisville/UConn (2). Ivy League teams split last four first round games after losing nine in row before that; Harvard upset New Mexico LY, but were getting 10.5 points- this spread is little light, no? Crimson lost by 5 at UConn in its only top 50 game. Harvard hasn't played in 12 days, has won eight games in row but against bad teams. Last three years, favorites of 5 or less points are 15-22 vs spread in first round games.
Colorado rode senior G Booker to make it here after star Dinwiddie was lost for year (knee) in January; Buffaloes lost by 12 to Baylor, won by 14 vs Georgia in two biggest non-league games. Third year in row in this event for Colorado, which was 14-2 with Dinwiddie, 9-9 since. Pitt won five of last seven games, losing by 3 to Virginia after beating Tar Heels in first ACC tourney. Patterson is 14-31 from arc in his last four games- Panthers struggle when he doesn't shoot well. Underdogs covered 16 of last 20 #8-9 games over last five years. Pitt had won five first round tilts in row before they lost to Wichita State 73-55 in first round LY.
Not only is Syracuse playing couple hours from home in Buffalo, its an arena, not a dome, so their home court edge is even bigger here. Orange stumbled to 2-5 finish after being 25-0 at one point. #3 seeds are 8-4 vs spread in this round last three years. Western Michigan split pair with Eastern Michigan, which is Syracuse-clone coached by former assistant coach. Broncos won 11 of last 12 games with only loss in OT; they are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9-6 points- their best win is over New Mexico State. MAC teams covered four of last five first round games. Boeheim is 7-3 vs spread in first round games last ten years.
BYU lost 100-96 (+9) in OT at Oregon Dec 21; Haws/Collinsworth got 41+ minutes in game, but Collinsworth blew out knee in WCC tourney, is out here, which made some say BYU shouldn't be here. Cougars won 15 of last 19 games after starting season 8-7. Oregon won eight of last nine games, getting beat by UCLA in Pac-12 tourney; Ducks are 3-0 vs WCC teams this year, with other two wins by 23-18 points- they made Sweet 16 LY, making tourney for first time under Altman. Over last five years,.underdogs are 15-5 vs spread in #7-10 games, with 12 SU upsets. Hard to imagine Collinsworth's injury not crippling BYU's chances.
Over last six years, #1 seeds are 14-10 vs spread in this round-- Albany won in Dayton Tuesday night, has to play here 45 hours later, against #1 team in country- good luck. Great Danes are in tourney for 4th time; they covered two of three in this round, losing by 12 (+20.5) to Duke in LY's event. Gators won first round game last three years by 28-26-32 points; they beat Kentucky in SEC final Sunday, so quick turnaround for them, too. chances are they've been prepping for second round game, when they'll be playing Colorado-Pitt winner. Albany is well-coached; they jumped out to 21-2 lead, but had trouble with quickness/shooting of Mt St Mary's, which doesn't bode well for this opponent.
Michigan State is finally healthy, looked sharp in Big Dozen tourney, where they beat Michigan in finals, avenging pair of earlier losses to the Wolverines. Spartans are 12-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 100, with 10 of 12 wins by 14+ points. Over last eight years, #4 seeds are 20-12 vs spread in this round. Izzo won six of last seven first round games, winning last two years by 22-11 points. Delaware lost by 4 to Villanova, 5 to Notre Dame, 12 to Ohio State; they've won 19 of last 21 games, don't sub much, protect ball very well- they scored 84.5 ppg in their last four games.
