Monday's Bowl Tip Sheet
December 25, 2016
**Miami (OH.) vs. Mississippi State**
-- The MAC and the SEC will tangle at The Trop in St. Petersburg, Fla., for the St. Petersburg Bowl. This game is scheduled for an 11:00 a.m. Eastern kickoff on ESPN.
-- As of Christmas Day, most books had Mississippi State (5-7 straight, 5-7 against the spread) as a 14.5-point favorite with a 58.5-point total. The RedHawks were available to win outright for a monster +475 payout (risk $100 to win $475). The Bulldogs opened as 11.5-point ‘chalk’ before quickly moving to 13. Over the last five days, the number as inched up to 14 and just a bit north of there at this point.
-- Dan Mullen’s team became bowl eligible thanks to a strong APR that allowed it to go to the postseason despite being under .500 in regular-season play. MSU twice won outright in November as a 10-point underdog to secure the bowl bid. First, the Bulldogs held off Texas A&M by a 35-28 count and next, they won 55-20 at Ole Miss,.
-- MSU sophomore QB Nick Fitzgerald absolutely went off in the blowout win over the Rebels, throwing three touchdowns passes without an interception. Even more impressive, he rushed for 258 yards and two TDs on 14 carries. Aeris Williams also schooled Ole Miss for 191 rushing yards and a pair of TDs on 25 attempts. Cedric Jiles added a 74-yard pick-six in the beatdown.
-- For the season, Fitzgerald has completed only 54.5 percent of his passes for 2,281 yards with a 21/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed 177 times for 1,243 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 7.0 yards per carry. Fitzgerald’s favorite target is Fred Ross, who has 69 receptions for 890 yards and 12 TDs. Donald Gray has 38 catches for 674 yards and five TDs.
-- Williams has rushed for 656 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC.
-- Mississippi State has posted a 0-3 spread record with one outright defeat (21-20 to South Alabama at home in the season opener) in three games as a double-digit ‘chalk.’
-- This is MSU’s school-record seventh straight trip to a bowl game on Mullen’s watch. The Bulldogs blasted N.C. State 51-28 as 4.5-point favorites at last year’s Belk Bowl.
-- Miami (OH.) (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) lost its first six games, only to win six in a row afterward to become bowl eligible. This is the first time a team has pulled such a turnaround in NCAA history. During the six-game slide, the RedHawks lost three on-possession games. During the six-game surge, however, they have won four of six games by double-digit margins.
-- The key to Miami’s turnaround has been the insertion of sophomore QB Gus Ragland into the starting lineup. He has led the RedHawks to six straight wins by throwing 15 TD passes without an interception. For his career, Ragland has an 18/0 TD-INT ratio. He has nine TD passes in the last three games, including three in a 21-20 non-covering win over Ball State. It was the first non-cover since Ragland took over as the starter.
-- Ragland has completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,274 yards. He also has 151 rushing yards for a pair of scores. He distributes the ball to three main passing targets, including James Gardner, who has 40 catches for 658 yards and five TDs. Jared Murphy (42, 532, five) and Rokeem Williams (22, 463, three) also get their fair share of balls thrown to them.
-- Miami (OH.) has a pair of featured backs in Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young. Smith has 689 rushing yards and three TDs with a 4.3 YPC average, while Young has run for 490 yards and a pair of scores with a 6.2 YPC average.
-- Miami (OH.) has been an underdog eight times, compiling a 6-2 spread record with three outright wins. The RedHawks have posted a 3-1 spread record in four games as double-digit ‘dogs.
-- The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for the RedHawks, although the ‘over’ is 3-2 in their last five games. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 47.8 points per game. This is the second-highest total they’ve seen this year.
-- The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for the Bulldogs, who have seen their games average combined scores of 64.6 PPG. They’ve seen the ‘over’ cash in each of their last six contests.
**Maryland vs. Boston College**
-- The Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit will feature a pair of former ACC adversaries in Maryland and Boston College. The Terrapins have moved on to the Big Ten and are bowling after a one-year hiatus from the postseason.
-- As of Christmas Day, most spots had Maryland (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS) installed as a two-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 44.
-- Maryland won its first four games to start D.J. Durkin’s first season as head coach. Since then, however, the Terrapins have won just twice more, a 28-17 win over Michigan State as three-point home underdogs and a 31-13 victory over Rutgers as 15.5-point home ‘chalk.’ In the win over RU, RB Ty Johnson rushed 11 times for 168 yards, while Kenneth Goins ran for 81 yards and one TD on 10 totes.
-- Senior QB Perry Hills missed two games and parts of four other with a shoulder injury, but he played well when healthy. Hills connected on 66.0 percent of his throws for 1,235 yards with 10/3 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for four TDs.
-- Johnson rushed for 845 yards and four TDs while averaging 8.9 YPC. Lorenzo Harrison ran for 633 yards and five TDs with a 7.2 YPC average.
-- Hills’s top throwing options include D.J. Moore, who has 38 receptions for 597 yards and six TDs. Teldrick Morgan has 40 catches for 407 yards and three TDs, while Levern Jacobs has 37 grabs for 368 yards and one TD. Johnson added 14 catches for 191 yards and one TD.
-- Maryland lost outright in both of its single-digit favorite spots during the regular season.
-- Boston College (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) has won three in a row over Maryland both SU and ATS, including a 29-26 win as a two-point road underdog in the last encounter in 2013. The Eagles have won eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
-- Boson College has been an underdog seven times this season, going 2-4-1 ATS with a pair of outright wins at Wake Forest (+3) and at N.C. State (+16).
-- Just like in 2015, BC fielded one of the nation’s elite defenses and worst offenses in 2016. The Eagles are ranked eighth in total defense and eighth at defending the run. However, they are No. 127 of 128 FBS teams in total offense, No. 121 in passing, No. 101 in rushing and No. 123 in scoring (19.1 PPG).
-- BC’s defense is led by junior LB Connor Strachan, who has recorded 70 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, one forced fumble and one QB hurry. Junior DE Harold Landry produced 47 tackles, 20.5 TFL’s, 15 sacks, seven forced fumbles, five QB hurries and a pair of passes broken up.
-- After four QBs combined for an 8/9 TD-INT ratio in 2015, the hope for Steve Addazio’s squad was that Kentucky grad transfer Patrick Towles would solve the team’s signal-calling woes. It just didn’t happen, though. Towles has completed merely 51.0 percent of his passes for 1,579 yards with a 10/6 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 280 yards and four TDs.
-- Jeff Smith led BC in receiving yards (391) with 26 catches and three TD grabs. Michael Walker has 30 receptions for 357 yards and three TDs.
-- Jon Hilliman led BC in rushing with 463 yards and five TDs, but he averaged a meager 3.0 YPC.
-- BC has lost five consecutive bowl games dating back to 2008. After a 3-9 campaign in 2015, the Eagles are in the postseason for the third time in four seasons under Addazio. They lost 31-30 to Penn State in overtime at the 2014 Pinstripe Bowl and fell 42-19 to Arizona at the 2013 AdvoCare V100 Bowl.
-- Both teams have seen the ‘under’ go 8-4 overall. BC’s games have averaged combined scores of 43.7 PPG, while the Terps have watched their games average combined scores of 54.4 PPG.
-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina State**
-- This SEC/ACC showdown will take place in Shreveport, LA., where the Independence Bowl will go down at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of Christmas Day, most books had N.C. State favored by 5.5 or six points with a total of 45.5. The Commodores were +200 on the money line (risk $100 to win $200).
-- Both of these teams closed the regular season in style with wins over their arch rivals. Vanderbilt (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) won back-to-back games and four of its last six to get bowl eligible for the first time during Derek Mason’s three-year tenure. There were three monster victories in regular season, including at Georgia (17-16), vs. Ole Miss (38-17) and vs. Tennessee (45-34).
-- There were also heartbreakers galore that went against Vandy. A 55-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter allowed South Carolina to nip the Commodores 13-10 in the season opener. There were three additional losses in one-possession games vs. Florida (13-6), at Kentucky (20-13) and at Auburn (23-16). The Auburn defeat was especially controversial as an early third-quarter play completely shifted the momentum of the game. With Vandy holding a 10-7 advantage and Auburn driving just inside of Vandy territory, All-SEC linebacker Zach Cunningham stripped Kamryn Pettway and recovered the fumble. That was the ruling on the field and there didn’t seem to be anything whatsoever on replay to initiate a reversal of the call. Nevertheless, the call was inexplicably reversed and Auburn scored a TD two plays later.
-- The key to Vandy’s late-season surge was the improvement of the passing game. Kyle Shurmur threw for 221 yards or more in each of the last four games, including a 416-yard effort against UT. Shurmur completed 21-of-34 throws for two TD passes on the Volunteers. Trent Sherfield had nine receptions for 184 yards, while Caleb Scott had four catches for 117 yards. Ralph Webb rushed 21 times for 114 yards and two TDs.
-- Despite battling a lingering ankle injury that should be much improved after several weeks off, Webb still ran for a team-high 1,172 yards to become the school’s all-time rushing leader. The true junior from Gainesville, Fla., averaged 5.1 YPC and had 12 rushing TDs. Khari Blasingame rushed for 447 yards and nine TDs with a 4.7 YPC average.
-- Shurmur has completed 56.2 percent of his passes for 2,251 yards with a 9/7 TD-INT ratio. He had four TD passes with only one pick in the last two games of the regular season. Sherfield had 31 receptions for 448 yards and one TD, while C.J. Duncan had 38 catches for 447 yards.
-- Cunningham was a first-team All-SEC selection after tallying 119 tackles, one fumble recovery, two forced fumbles, 16.5 TFL’s, three PBU and one blocked field goal.
-- Vanderbilt has thrived as an underdog, compiling a 6-3 spread record with four outright wins, including a 31-30 win at Western Kentucky in overtime.
-- N.C. State (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) started 4-1 with its only loss coming by a 33-30 score at East Carolina. Then on Oct. 15, Dave Doeren’s squad went to Death Valley and played then-unbeaten Clemson dead even for nearly 60 minutes. The Wolfpack had a chance to pull the stunning upset as a 20-point underdog on the final play of regulation, but Kyle Bambard’s 37-yard field-goal attempt sailed wide right. Then in OT, Clemson prevailed 24-17.
-- The gut-wrenching loss at Clemson turned into a four-game losing streak. N.C. State was destroyed 54-13 at Louisville the following week and then dropped a 21-14 decision to Boston College as a 16-point home favorite. Next, the Wolfpack led FSU most of the way, only to lose 24-20 when the Seminoles rallied back late in the fourth quarter. After splitting a pair of games with a win at Syracuse (35-20) and a loss vs. Miami (27-13), N.C. State closed the season in Chapel Hill as a 10-point underdog.
-- Needing a win over the Tar Heels to get to the postseason, N.C. State sprinted out to a 21-0 lead with 10:33 left in the second quarter thanks to a pair of Matt Dayes’ TD runs. After leading 21-7 at intermission, the Wolfpack extended the advantage to 28-7 on a four-yard TD run from Jaylen Samuels, who had a 59-yard TD pass off a trick play. The Pack would hold on to collect a 28-21 victory. Dayes was the catalyst with 104 rushing yards and two TDs on 26 attempts.
-- N.C. State went 2-1 both SU and ATS in three games as a single-digit favorite this season.
-- N.C. State QB Ryan Finley completed 60.2 percent of his passes in the regular season for 2,815 yards with a 15/8 TD-INT ratio. Samuels was his favorite option in the aerial attack, as the junior first-team All-ACC selection in 2015 caught 49 balls for 461 yards and four TDs. Samuels also ran for 180 yards and six TDs on 31 carries for a 5.8 YPC average. Stephen Louis had 33 receptions for 657 yards and two TDs, while true freshman Kevin Harmon had 26 catches for 458 yards and five TDs.
-- Dayes rushed for a team-high 1,119 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC. The senior RB also had 31 catches for 254 yards.
-- N.C. State is ranked sixth in the nation in run defense, 28th in total defense and 32nd in scoring (23.2 PPG).
-- Vandy is ranked 26th in the country in scoring defense, giving up just 22.6 PPG.
-- Despite back-to-back ‘over’ appearances, the ‘under’ went 6-5-1 overall for the Commodores. They saw their games average combined scores of 46.1 PPG.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-4-1 overall for N.C. State after cashing in five straight and seven of its last eight. The Wolfpack have seen its games average combined scores of 49.1 PPG.
-- These programs met in the 2012 Music City Bowl in Nashville, where Vandy won by a 38-24 count as a 7.5-point favorite.
