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Tuesday, November 4



Line surging towards Raps in matchup with Thunder

The Toronto Raptors opened as big 9-point home favorites against the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder and bettors were happy to jump all over that number.

The betting line jumped to Raptors -11 early Tuesday morning and moved again to -11.5 early this afternoon.

Toronto (2-1 SU/ATS) is coming off their first loss of the season in Miami, while Oklahoma City (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) are playing in back-to-back games after getting blown out Monday night against Brooklyn.
 

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Tuesday, November 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Milwaukee - 7:00 PM ET Milwaukee +4 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Indiana - Over 191.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Houston - 7:30 PM ET Houston +1.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Miami - Over 203.5 500

Washington - 7:30 PM ET New York +1.5 500 SLAM DUNK
New York - Over 191.5 500

Oklahoma City - 7:30 PM ET Toronto -11.5 500 SLAM DUNK
Toronto - Under 193 500

Orlando - 8:00 PM ET Orlando +11.5 500
Chicago - Over 190.5 500

Charlotte - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans -4 500 *****
New Orleans - Under 189.5 500 *****

Cleveland - 10:00 PM ET Portland +2 500 *****
Portland - Over 206 500

Phoenix - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Lakers +6.5 500
L.A. Lakers - Over 212 500 TRIPLE PLAY
 

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RATED PLAYS:

8 - 9.........................................*****

4 - 5 ........................................DOUBLE PLAY

6 - 4 ........................................TRIPLE PLAY

5 - 5 ........................................SLAM DUNK


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/04/14 9-*7-*0 56.25% +650 Detail

11/03/14 3-*9-*0 25.00% -*3450 Detail

11/02/14 3-*5-*0 37.50% -*1250 Detail

11/01/14 12-*10-*2 54.55% +*500 Detail

Totals 27-*31-*2 46.55% -*3550

<tbody>
</tbody>
 

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Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 10 approaching

-- Bengals are 12-1-1 in last fourteen home games.

-- Broncos are 10-4 as a road favorite.

-- Cowboys are 1-6 in last seven pre-bye games.

-- Saints are 16-3-1 in last 20 non-divisional games.

-- Steelers are 3-8 in last 11 games as a road favorite.

-- Arizona is 8-3-1 in its last dozen home games.

**********


Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) This will remain fluid for the rest of the month, but if the college football tournament started today, the semi-finals would be:
-- Mississippi State vs Oregon
-- Florida State vs Auburn.

Alabama and TCU are the first two teams on the outside looking in.

12) Going to miss those political ads on TV—well, no I’m not. Whats the old joke? How do you know if a politician is lying? If his/her lips are moving.

11) Supposedly, Alex Rodriguez paid his cousin $1M to keep quiet about PED’s. Damn, I wish someone would pay me $1M to shut my mouth; I’d make Shields & Yarnell look like freakin’ auctioneers.

10) This is the month MAC football takes over ESPNU and ESPN2 on Tuesday, Wednesdays; I think Akron’s last four games are all on Tuesday nights.

I used to joke that teams would play at 4am if ESPN wanted them to, then the basketball tip-off marathon was born (Nov 18 this year) when there are actually games played at 6am and 8am local time in the east. It must help the schools involved or they wouldn’t do it.

9) European golfers Marcel Siem and Alexander Levy openly wagered 200 Euros (roughly $252) on each round of their tournament last week; not sure the powers-that-be were all that excited about openly gambling on a match during a tournament. Phil Mickelson is notorious for wagering on practice rounds, but that’s different.

8) Quick look at QB situations in the NFC East find Dallas/Philly starting different QBs this month because of injury. Washington started three different QB’s in their last three games then there are the Giants, where Eli Manning has started their last 158 games without a miss. The immobile Manning is struggling behind a shaky OL, but he plays every week and that’s important, to be a dependable player.

7) Phillies are rumored to be shopping 1B Ryan Howard, who can’t move, can’t hit lefties and makes $20M a year. Good luck there.

Only places I could conceive of him being useful would be Baltimore/Texas/Houston, AL teams with small home parks, but the Orioles are too smart for that. I guess Texas is a possibility. If the Astros traded for him it would be intriguing, since they’ve tried so hard to make Jonathan Singleton their 1B of the future.

6) If you live in Indianapolis, you might vote at Hinkle Fieldhouse, where Butler plays its basketball games and where the final basketball scenes in Hoosiers were shot. How cool would that be, voting where Jimmy Chitwood ran the picket fence.

5) Cleveland Indians gave Terry Francona a much-deserved contract extension thru 2018; I enjoyed listening to him on TV, but glad he is doing well running a ballclub. Still think the Red Sox screwed up getting rid of him, though they won a World Series with John Farrell, after the Bobby Valentine debacle.

4) Cleveland Browns are a surprising/uplifting 5-3, but QB Brian Hoyer’s contract is up after this year and the team has a lot of $$ tied up in Johnny Manziel. This has to be the owner’s call I would think, whether to re-sign Hoyer or plunge forward with Manziel. Am very curious to see what they do, because their players are watching too. You know damn well Hoyer has the other players’ trust. Cutting him loose would be very risky business.

3) Rockets 108, Heat 89-- Houston is off to a 5-0 start despite whiffing in their free agent dealings. Rockets made 17 of 36 behind the arc. Think the Thunder miss James Harden? He had 25 points, 9 rebounds, 10 assists in this game.

Kostas Papanikolaou has done really well replacing Chandler Parsons as a shooter; Houston was +17 when he was on the court in this game, even when he was off.

2) I highly recommend getting the NBA League Pass, tremendous entertainment on nights where there is a full schedule of games.

1) Cubs are said to be going heavily after free agent catcher Russell Martin, who will use the lack of quality catchers to become really, really rich this winter. Hope the Cubs are saving lot of money to buy some pitchers- thats what wins.
 

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Six signs of a losing sports bet

Over the course of your sports betting career, you’re going to lose a good chunk of wagers for a million different reasons.

A missed field goal. A meaningless 3-pointer. A wild pitch. An empty-net goal. An injury to the star quarterback. The list goes on and on…

Some of those bet-busting phenomena are out of your hands, but some losing bets leave you smacking yourself in the forehead wondering, “What the hell was I thinking?!”

Most bad bets have tells – like a poor poker player - that you should look for before heading to the counter or clicking “OK”. We polled some of Covers Experts' sharpest handicappers to find out the “Six Signs of a Losing Bet”:

Betting against streaks

Steve Merril says it best: “Don’t try and catch a falling knife.”

All streaks come to an end and figuring out when is a high-risk, high-reward game. When sizing up a team on an extended losing slide, it may be best to wait until that club shows some signs of life and snaps the skid before getting down on them.

An old rule of thumb when it comes to sports betting is “never bet on a bad team”. While that may not sit right with some, it’s safe to say you should never bet on a bad team when they’re playing badly. That's just dumb.

Skewed stats/record

Often times the result on the scoreboard doesn’t quite reflect how a game played out. Teams can get completely outplayed on both ends, but turnovers or a couple costly errors from the other side can mask those troubles.

Marc Lawrence preaches in-depth stats-to-record research, coining the term “leaking oil” for those clubs that keep winning despite being outgained in their last three contests.

“When they're installed as a favorite, I will generally make a case against them as they are obviously not playing their best ball of the season,” Lawrence says of those team "leaking oil".

He points to the Missouri Tigers’ 24-14 lackluster win over Vanderbilt in Week 9, in which they failed to cover as big 22.5-point favorites after getting out-yarded in the three games previous.

Public overkill

The betting public is far more knowledgeable than ever before but there are still times in which too much “square” love is a bad thing. Many professionals are contrarian by nature and, while you shouldn’t blindly fade the public’s favorite plays each and every time, you can find good value on the other side of these public picks.

This past Saturday, for example, almost 65 percent of Consensus was on Georgia -11.5 versus Florida in their annual SEC rivalry game - the third-most public play for all Saturday's betting action. The Gators rushed for 418 yards and dominated time of possession, stunning UGA 38-20 and a taking a bite of the public's pockets.

Poor chemistry

It can be a new-look roster failing to jell, like the struggles we saw from the Miami Heat’s “Big Three” in 2010 (2-12 ATS skid in November 2010), or turmoil in the locker room between players and coaches, like what we’re currently seeing with the Chicago Bears – chemistry is key when betting on team sports.

Art Aronson of AAA Sports is always conscience of how a team is getting along, on and off the field of play. He faded Chicago, with tension rising between players and head coach Marc Trestman, when the Bears played at New England in Week 8. The line opened Chicago +7 and was bet down to +5.5 before the wheels came off the Monsters of the Midway, losing 51-23.

“Bettors who figured that the Bears would be able to set aside their difference and have enough bite to at least cover against the Pats in Foxboro were ripping up tickets well before halftime,” says Aronson. “They learned a valuable lesson - it’s hard enough to win in the NFL and when a team can’t set aside its differences and play together, it’s often impossible.”

Injury impact

Factoring how much an injury plays into the outcome of a game is one of the most difficult tasks a sports bettor can face. Often times a big-name injury can be overvalued, with oddsmakers making a slight adjustment to the odds and the betting public piling on.

Other injuries - ones that don’t command a knee-jerk modification to the line - can have a much bigger effect on a team and how they perform. Misreading into these missing players can quickly spoil a wager.

Georgia recently lost star RB Todd Gurley to suspension and bettors were quick to go against the Bulldogs in their game versus Missouri. However, a program like UGA has plenty of depth on the roster and rumbled for 210 rushing yards in a 34-0 blowout as a 3-point favorite.

On the flip side, the Cleveland Browns recently lost starting center Alex Mack to a broken leg – an injury that barely made a blip on the betting radar. With Mack making the snaps, Cleveland erupted for huge gains on the ground. But since his injury in Week 6 the Browns have run for an average of only 52.7 yards in the last three games, and because of it have gone just 1-2 ATS in that span.

Bad line

There’s a reason the wiseguys wager earlier in the week. Sharp money jumps on opening lines quickly, trimming valuable half points off the spreads and sucking as much as 20 to 30 cents out of the moneylines.

If you’re not betting on a football game – that’s had odds posted all week – until kickoff, chances are you’re not getting the best line for your buck. But, as we painfully know, that isn’t always enough to put on the breaks.

Betting for the sake of betting can instantly make any wager a losing wager. Football odds are tightening up this time of year, with books and bettors having a clear idea of what teams are all about. And the fresh NHL and NBA lines will stiffen up with every game played.

Those missed half points on the spread, handful of points on the total, and 30-cent differences on the moneyline are often the difference between winning and losing, whether immediately or over the course of the season.
 

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Dunkel

Indiana at Washington
The Pacers head to Washington tonight where they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games. Indiana is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wizards favored by only 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+9 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5

Game 501-502: Orlando at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 109.473; Philadelphia 113.470
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Under

Game 503-504: Miami at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 121.531; Charlotte 120.438
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1; 195
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 505-506: Toronto at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 117.381; Boston 118.916
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+1 1/2); Over

Game 507-508: Minnesota at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 115.398; Brooklyn 125.550
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-5 1/2); Under

Game 509-510: New York at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.369; Detroit 121.394
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 9; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 4; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4); Under

Game 511-512: Indiana at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.456; Washington 121.743
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 9 1/2; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+9 1/2); Over

Game 513-514: Chicago at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 125.229; Milwaukee 116.254
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 9; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 6 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-6 1/2); Over

Game 515-516: Atlanta at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 124.228; San Antonio 129.633
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 202
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+8); Under

Game 517-518: Memphis at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 123.253; Phoenix 120.235
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 3; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 195
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+1); Over

Game 519-520: Cleveland at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.635; Utah 116.809
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 7; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 4 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-4 1/2); Under

Game 521-522: Denver at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 117.052; Sacramento 122.484
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 5 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 2 1/2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-2 1/2); Over

Game 523-524: LA Clippers at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 125.384; Golden State 125.731
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 3; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+3); Under
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up


Wednesday, November 5


Hot Teams
-- Miami won/covered its first three games.
-- Raptors won/covered three of first four games.
-- Brooklyn won last two games by 12-31 points.
-- Washington won/covered its last three games.
-- Bulls won three of first four games (1-3 vs spread).
-- Grizzlies won first four games, covering last three. Phoenix won three of its first four games.
-- Sacramento won last three games, by 9-6-5 points.
-- Warriors won/covered their first three games. Clippers won three of first four games, but are 0-4 vs spread-- all four games were decided by 7 or less points.


Cold Teams
-- Orlando, Philly both lost first four games (each 1-3 vs spread).
-- Hornets lost last three games, by 2-3-9 points.
-- Boston lost last two games by 14-5 points; home team won all three of its games.
-- Minnesota is 1-2 SU, covering all three; three games were decided by total of 11 points.
-- Pistons lost first three games by 10-6-12 points. New York split first four games (1-3 vs spread)- road team covered all four games.
-- Pacers lost last three games by 8-10-6 points.
-- Bucks split their first four games (3-1 vs spread).
-- Hawks, Spurs both split first two games (each 0-2 vs spread).
-- Utah lost three of its first four games. Cavaliers lost two of their first three games.
-- Nuggets lost last two games, by 11-5 points.


Series Records
-- 76ers lost five of last six games with Orlando.
-- Miami swept the Hornets 4-0 in playoffs LY; they've won 19 in a row against Charlotte (8-2 vs spread last ten).
-- Celtics lost four of last five games with Toronto, but Raptors are only 1-11 in last dozen visits to Beantown.
-- Nets lost seven of last ten games with Minnesota.
-- Knicks won 12 of last 15 games with Detroit.
-- Pacers beat Washington 4-2 in LY's playoffs; they won last three trips here, but that was when they were healthy.
-- Bulls won four of last five games with Milwaukee.
-- Spurs won last seven games (5-2 vs spread) with Atlanta.
-- Grizzlies won five of last six games with Phoenix.
-- Jazz lost last three games with Cleveland by 3-11-20 points.
-- Kings won three of last four games with Denver.
-- Clippers beat Golden State 4-3 in LY's playoffs, but they've lost seven of last eight visits to Oakland.


Totals
-- Seven of last eight Orlando-Philly games stayed under.
-- Three of first four games for both Hornets/Heat went over total.
-- Three of first four Toronto games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Minnesota-Brooklyn games went over.
-- First three Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Three of four games for both Pacers/Wizards went over total.
-- Over is 5-2 in Bulls' last seven visits to Milwaukee.
-- Four of last six Hawk-Spur games stayed under total.
-- Under is 7-0 in Grizzlies' last seven visits to Phoenix.
-- Last three Utah games went over total.
-- Three of four Sacramento games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Clipper-Warrior games went over.


Back-to-Backs
--


East vs West
SU: West 11-3 ATS: West 10-4
East teams HF vs West: 2-2
East teams HU vs West: 1-1
West teams HF vs East: 5-1
West teams HU vs East: 2-0
 

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Wednesday, November 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
ORLANDO vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Orlando's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Orlando is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 2-22 SU in its last 24 games at home
Philadelphia is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games at home

7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Miami's last 18 games
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games when playing Miami
Charlotte is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games

7:30 PM
NEW YORK vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 16 of New York's last 24 games on the road
New York is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against New York
Detroit is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against New York

7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. BOSTON
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Toronto is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Boston is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Toronto

7:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. BROOKLYN
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
Brooklyn is 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Minnesota

8:00 PM
INDIANA vs. WASHINGTON
Indiana is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Indiana
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 13 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home
Milwaukee is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games

8:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. SAN ANTONIO
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

9:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. UTAH
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Utah
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games
Utah is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

9:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. PHOENIX
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Phoenix is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis

10:00 PM
DENVER vs. SACRAMENTO
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Sacramento is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Denver

10:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. GOLDEN STATE
LA Clippers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
LA Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Golden State's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Golden State's last 16 games when playing LA Clippers

 

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Wednesday, November 5


Rockets hand Heat first ATS loss, extend under streak

The Houston Rockets continue to roll improving to 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread with their 108-91 win over the Miami Heat.

The game also went under the total and the Rockets are now 0-5 over/under on the season.

It was the Heat's first SU and ATS of the season and are now 3-1 SU/ATS.

Miami visits Charlotte Wednesday night and Houston hosts San Antonio Thursday.


Under was a strong play Tuesday night

Teams were playing lockdown defense in the NBA Tuesday night, making it a great night to bet the under.

The under went 6-2 in the Association Tuesday night, hitting 75 percent of the time. Much better than the season average of just over 49 percent.
 

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Long Sheet

Wednesday, November 5

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ORLANDO (0 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 4) - 11/5/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 35-48 ATS (-17.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-49 ATS (-17.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 34-47 ATS (-17.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 6-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 5-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (3 - 1) at CHARLOTTE (1 - 3) - 11/5/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 9-3 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 12-0 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (3 - 1) at BOSTON (1 - 2) - 11/5/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 18-32 ATS (-17.2 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 78-113 ATS (-46.3 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 4-4 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (1 - 2) at BROOKLYN (2 - 1) - 11/5/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 169-211 ATS (-63.1 Units) after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 2-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (2 - 2) at DETROIT (0 - 3) - 11/5/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 36-49 ATS (-17.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 5-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 5-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (1 - 3) at WASHINGTON (3 - 1) - 11/5/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 77-53 ATS (+18.7 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 323-390 ATS (-106.0 Units) in home games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 91-127 ATS (-48.7 Units) in November games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 7-6 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 9-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 1) at MILWAUKEE (2 - 2) - 11/5/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 40-58 ATS (-23.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 33-51 ATS (-23.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 29-45 ATS (-20.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 4-4 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (1 - 1) at SAN ANTONIO (1 - 1) - 11/5/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 860-750 ATS (+35.0 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 680-578 ATS (+44.2 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 439-365 ATS (+37.5 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 69-38 ATS (+27.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 4-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (4 - 0) at PHOENIX (3 - 1) - 11/5/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 54-30 ATS (+21.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 128-93 ATS (+25.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 5-2 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 6-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (1 - 2) at UTAH (1 - 3) - 11/5/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 130-174 ATS (-61.4 Units) after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
UTAH is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 19-31 ATS (-15.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (1 - 2) at SACRAMENTO (3 - 1) - 11/5/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 5-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (3 - 1) at GOLDEN STATE (3 - 0) - 11/5/2014, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-6 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 8-7 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
11 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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Rockets move to 5-0, top Heat


November 4, 2014


MIAMI (AP) - James Harden had 25 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds, Dwight Howard added 26 points and 10 boards, and the Houston Rockets stayed unbeaten, beating the Miami Heat 108-91 on Tuesday night.


Trevor Ariza added 19 points for the Rockets, who used a 13-0 run late in the fourth quarter to pull away. Patrick Beverley scored 15 for Houston (5-0).


Chris Bosh scored 21 points for Miami (3-1). Dwyane Wade added 19 for the Heat, with Shawne Williams and Mario Chalmers each scoring 12 and Luol Deng finishing with 11.


The Rockets outscored Miami 25-14 in the final quarter. Houston went 17 for 37 from 3-point range and now has 213 points from beyond the arc this season - as opposed to 198 points on 2-point baskets.


A 17-8 run by the Rockets closed the half and gave Houston a 57-55 lead at intermission. The run continued in the third.


Houston scored 18 points in a 4 1/2-minute stretch that was capped by three 3-pointers in 66 seconds - the last two by Beverley, helping the Rockets turn a tied game into a 77-64 lead.


Miami ripped off 10 straight points to get within 83-80 early in the fourth, and 3s from Justin Hamilton and Shabazz Napier cut Houston's lead to 90-86 with 7 minutes left.


But Ariza hit a 3, Harden laid in his own miss and then Ariza - over the outstretched arm of the 7-foot Bosh - made a high-arcing 3 to put Houston up 12 and in control for good.


---


TIP-INS


Rockets: Beverley missed Monday's game in Philadelphia with hamstring pain but showed no ill effects. ... F Donatas Motiejunas started because Terrence Jones (knee) was out. ... The Rockets were one of two teams with four road games in the first eight days, along with Oklahoma City. Houston plays eight of its next 11 at home. ... Harden was 10 for 10 from the line in the first half, doing that for the second time in his last three games.


Heat: Miami was without Danny Granger (hamstring), Udonis Haslem (quad) and Chris Andersen (ribs). ... Heat President Pat Riley sat with his former point guard, Magic Johnson. ... Miami doesn't plan to significantly increase Josh McRoberts' minutes until he gets more practices. McRoberts is coming off a toe injury. ... Hamilton, who had three 3-pointers in his career entering the night, made three, including two in a 19-second span of the first quarter.
 

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Grizzlies, Suns clash


November 5, 2014




MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (4-0) at PHOENIX SUNS (3-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Even, Total: 195


The Grizzlies look to stay perfect when they visit the high-flying Suns on Wednesday night.


Memphis improved to 4-0 SU after defeating the Pelicans 93-81 at home on Monday, which was also the third straight ATS victory. Phoenix is also off to a great start at 3-1 SU, including a win over the defending champion Spurs on Halloween and just defeated the Lakers 112-106 in Los Angeles. The Suns played late on Tuesday night, so there’s a good chance that they’ll be dealing with some fatigue in this game.


Last season, the Grizzlies won-and-covered in all four meetings between these teams, giving them seven SU wins in the past 10 meetings between these teams. This includes going 3-1 (SU and ATS in Phoenix) in the past two seasons.


Over the past three seasons, the Grizzlies are 58-41 ATS (59%) after a game where they covered the spread. They are, however, 1-9 ATS after four or more consecutive wins over the past two years. Phoenix, meanwhile, is 24-8 ATS (75%) in the first half of the season over the past two seasons and 54-30 ATS (64%) in all games since the start of last season.


PG Mike Conley (ankle) and SG Courtney Lee (concussion) will likely both be giving it a go when the game tips off tonight, as both are listed as probable.


Memphis is off to an unbelievable start this season and that all begins with the play on the defensive end. The Grizzlies are allowing a NBA-low 85.0 PPG on 40.3% FG (4th in NBA).


One of the reasons this team is playing so well defensively is that C Marc Gasol (22.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG) is healthier than ever. Gasol had 16 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks while anchoring Memphis in a 93-81 victory over New Orleans on Monday. He’s in the best shape of his life and is playing like a legitimate MVP candidate. Gasol may not be able to keep it up all season, but at the moment he’s truly difficult to deal with on both ends of the floor.


PF Zach Randolph (18.5 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG) is also off to a hot start this season, and is coming off a game in which he scored 15 points and also added 11 rebounds and four assists. He’s taking much better shots early in the season and should be in for a big performance on Wednesday, as the Suns don’t have anybody who can match his size at the power forward position.


PG Mike Conley (13.3 PPG, 5.5 APG, 1.3 SPG) will need to be on top of his game in this one, as the Suns have three point guards that are capable of starting and he’ll be the one who constantly has to deal with their speed.


SG Vince Carter (6.3 PPG) will also be relied on heavily in this game, as Phoenix gets up and down the floor in a hurry. This could end up being a shootout and the Grizzlies need somebody who can catch fire like Carter.


Phoenix has picked up right where it left off last season, playing a fast-paced game and baffling teams with unique lineup combinations. SG Eric Bledsoe (11.0 PPG, 5.3 APG, 4.8 RPG) and PG Goran Dragic (13.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.0 APG) were one of the league’s best backcourts last season, and now the team has even more firepower in the backcourt with PG Isaiah Thomas (19.5 PPG, 4.5 APG) coming off the bench. Thomas had 22 points and nine assists in the Suns’ win over the Lakers on Tuesday.


He is an explosive scorer and has made SG Gerald Green (14.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG) a much better player in the second unit. Green had 26 points on 11-of-19 FG in the win over Los Angeles on Tuesday. The two linked up on a number of plays and are allowing Bledsoe and Dragic to play with 100 percent intensity when they are on the floor due to a small decrease in minutes.


Another player who has been excellent for Phoenix is PF Markieff Morris (17.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG). The 6-foot-10, 245-pound Morris has spent a lot of time playing power forward and even center for this team, but the lack of height has not hurt them at all. Morris had 23 points, 10 rebounds and five assists against the Lakers Tuesday night. He will have to deal with Zach Randolph for a majority of this game, so he’ll need to be ready to defend and play physically. His twin brother, PF Marcus Morris (12.3 PPG), will also help out on Randolph defensively.


C Miles Plumlee (5.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.3 BPG) has been a disappointment to start the season for Phoenix, and will need to step his game up against Memphis or Marc Gasol will make it impossible for the Suns to pick up a victory.
 

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Wednesday, November 5


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Miami - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte -1 500 *****
Charlotte - Under 191.5 500 *****


Orlando - 7:00 PM ET Orlando -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Philadelphia - Under 195.5 500


Toronto - 7:30 PM ET Boston -2 500
Boston - Over 203.5 500


Minnesota - 7:30 PM ET Minnesota +5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Brooklyn - Under 210 500


New York - 7:30 PM ET New York +4 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Detroit - Over 186 500


Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -4.5 500
Milwaukee - Over 191 500


Indiana - 8:00 PM ET Washington -9.5 500 SLAM DUNK
Washington - Under 187.5 500


Atlanta - 8:30 PM ET Atlanta +8 500
San Antonio - Over 201.5 500


Memphis - 9:00 PM ET Memphis +1.5 500 SLAM DUNK
Phoenix - Over 192 500


Cleveland - 9:00 PM ET Cleveland -5.5 500 *****
Utah - Under 205 500


Denver - 10:00 PM ET Sacramento -3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Sacramento - Over 203.5 500


L.A. Clippers - 10:30 PM ET Golden State -5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Golden State - Over 210 500
 

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RATED PLAYS:


10 - 10.........................................*****


5 - 6 ........................................DOUBLE PLAY


9 - 4 ........................................TRIPLE PLAY


6 - 6.........................................SLAM DUNK




RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS




Date WLT Pct Net Units Record


11/05/14 17-*7-*0 70.83% +*4650 Detail


11/04/14 9-*7-*0 56.25% +*650 Detail


11/03/14 3-*9-*0 25.00% -*3450 Detail


11/02/14 3-*5-*0 37.50% -*1250 Detail


11/01/14 12-*10-*2 54.55% +*500 Detail


Totals 44-*38-*2 53.66% +1100
 

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NBA
Dunkel

San Antonio at Houston
The Rockets host the Spurs tonight and come into the contest with a 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games versus San Antonio. Houston is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6

Game 701-702: San Antonio at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 121.614; Houston 127.820
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 6; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 3; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3); Under

Game 703-704: Dallas at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.861; Portland 126.369
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 4 1/2; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 2 1/2; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-2 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 6

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SAN ANTONIO (2 - 1) at HOUSTON (5 - 0) - 11/6/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 860-751 ATS (+33.9 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 288-227 ATS (+38.3 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 6-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (3 - 1) at PORTLAND (2 - 2) - 11/6/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 132-98 ATS (+24.2 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
DALLAS is 140-105 ATS (+24.5 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
DALLAS is 276-223 ATS (+30.7 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
DALLAS is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-1 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, November 6

Hot Teams
-- Rockets won their first four games; three were on the road. Spurs won two of first three games; games were decided by total of 8 points.
-- Dallas won its last three games, by 18-5-5; they're 3-1 vs spread so far this season.

Cold Teams
-- Portland split its first four games, winning two of three at home.

Series Records
-- Spurs lost their last five games with Houston.
-- Trailblazers lost four of their last five games with Dallas.

Totals
-- Four of last five Rocket-Spur games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Dallas games went over the total; all four Portland tilts went under the total. Eight of last eleven Mav-Blazer games went over.

Back-to-Backs
--

East vs West
SU: West 14-3 ATS: West 12-5
East teams HF vs West: 2-3
East teams HU vs West: 1-1
West teams HF vs East: 5-2
West teams HU vs East: 3-0




NBA

Thursday, November 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Houston is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home

10:30 PM
DALLAS vs. PORTLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games at home
Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas

 

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Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some of the better giveaway days at Citi Field for 2015 (these are all Saturdays)

-- May 2 (Nationals): Jacob deGrom garden gnome

-- May 16: (Brewers) Mets fedora (color unknown)

-- June 13: (Braves) David Wright replica jersey

-- July 11 (Arizona): Juan Lagares bobblehead

-- August 29 (Red Sox); 1986 World Series bobblehead

-- October 3 (Nationals): Mets fleece blanket

**********


Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud........

13) Lebron James played 85 minutes in Cleveland’s first two games, which is way too many; he was down to 35 in Tuesday’s loss in Portland, then played 42 minutes in Utah last night, where the Cavaliers lost 102-100.

Coach Blatt is going to have to learn how to dispense minutes to preserve his starters for the long season, especially James. Season is 82 games and as many as four playoff series, which could be 28 more games.

High drama at the end in Utah last night; Gordon Hayward hit a fadeaway from deep on the right wing as the horn sounded, dropping the Cavaliers to 1-3.

12) Cavaliers made their first ten shots in Portland, five of which were 3-pointers, then shot 28% the rest of the game; they need to find a dependable third scorer to supplement James/Kevin Love’s production.

11) Speaking of James, did the Miami Heat lower its ticket prices once he left? Its fairly obvious they won’t be as good; somehow I doubt they lowered prices, but hopefully they did.

10) FOX Sports 1 basketball analyst Bill Raftery filed for trademarks to his pet phrases "Onions" and "With a kiss" last week, protecting the use of the words as Raftery's during sports broadcasts and on clothes.

9) How did Sacramento let Isaiah Thomas get away? The lefty Washington alum is pretty good and is helping Phoenix bigtime so far. Not like the Kings have so many good guards that they couldn’t use the guy.

8) If you’re in Las Vegas December 17-20, the Jerry Tarkanian Classic will be played, a terrific high school basketball tournament with lot of really good players. I was there the last two years; its worth your time, if you’re in Vegas that week. Most of the games are at Bishop Gorman HS, I think.

7) Next big Cuban baseball star to come here will be 3B/OF Yasmany Tomas, who is said to be a stocky slugger being pursued by both the Phillies and Red Sox. Philly could use the money AJ Burnett just turned down to sign Tomas, who is 24 years old.

6) There are reports the Eagles were souring on Nick Foles even before he got hurt; Philly turned ball over 16 times in their last five games (-9) prompting rumors Eagle brass weren’t happy with him, all of which makes Mark Sanchez’ first Philly start Monday night a little more interesting.

5) Alfonso Soriano retired this week; he is one of six players in history with 400+ doubles, 400+ homers and 250+ steals in his career. Wasn’t much of a fielder, but was a very dangerous hitter.

4) Houston Texans pulled the plug on Ryan Fitzpatrick and will start Ryan Mallett at QB in Week 11; they have this week off. This was inevitable, with Mallett having been acquired from New England for a draft pick- they have to see what they have to see if they want to sign Mallett going forward.

3) Dodgers signed A’s assistant general manager Farhan Zaidi, a Berkeley-educated economist, as their next GM. Zaidi grew up in the Philippines, attended MIT as an undergraduate and, after getting his doctorate at Cal-Berkeley, decided to try to break into baseball after reading Moneyball. Hey, I've seen Moneyball the movie 25 times; can I get a job with the A's?

Not surprising, but it looks like the Dodgers’ new direction under Andrew Friedman will be heavily weighted towards analytics.

2) Timberwolves 98, Nets 91-- Minnesota led 17-2, then Nets went on a 34-14 run, but Wolves closed game on 18-5 run. Rubio had 14 points, 12 assists, 8 rebounds as all five Minnesota starters scored in double figures.

1) I know they do it because they can charge more for those tickets, but it is weird how close some fans sit to the team benches in NBA arenas. At Lakers' home games in Staples Center, the opposing coach often stands right in front of Jack Nicholson. If a guy goes lunging out of bounds for a loose ball, he might knock over people's drinks who are sitting right there. You don't get that in other sports.
 

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you're betting. Whether it's a team looking past this week's opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Covers Expert Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Lookahead spot

The fact Tony Romo even made the trip to London is baffling to some. Dallas jumps the pond to play Jacksonville in London with a laundry list of injuries, and not just to its star quarterback. The defensive corps have been dropping like flies the past two weeks and this overperforming stop unit doesn’t have much depth behind the first teamers.

Limping into Week 10’s neutral-site matchup with the Jaguars on a two-game losing streak, and with the bye week on the horizon, the Cowboys could get caught looking ahead to some time off to lick those wounds. Books that have gone ahead and posted a line for this London game, regardless of Romo's status, have Dallas as high as a touchdown favorite. If he does play it could go as high as Cowboys -10.

Letdown spot

The Florida Gators haven’t had much to play this season. But when it came time to lay the lumber to SEC rival Georgia, UF rolled the Bulldogs in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” last weekend. The Gators rushed for 418 yards in the 38-20 win as 11.5-point underdogs in Jacksonville, and may have saved head coach Will Muschamp’s job for the time being.

Florida doesn’t have much left on the schedule in terms of motivational factors, besides a season-ending chance to spoil Florida State’s bid for a spot in the College Football Playoff. In the meantime, the Gators waddle into Nashville all fat and cocky, tabbed as 14.5-point road favorites versus Vanderbilt Saturday. The Commodores have been a hot bet, covering in five of their last six games.

Schedule spot

The Dallas Mavericks will be breaking out the Advil and ice packs after their upcoming stretch of schedule, playing three games in four nights. While most teams handle these busy spots with moderate success, few are as ancient as the Mavs. Heading into the 2014-15 season, Dallas is tied with San Antonio as the oldest team in the league, with an average age of 28.7.

The bulk of that youth is coming off the bench while starters like Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler, Monta Ellis and Jameer Nelson are all old as dirt by NBA standards with 53 combined years of experience between them. Those greybeards could be showing their age by the time this grueling span is over. The Mavericks are at Portland and Utah Thursday and Friday, then back on the court hosting the Heat Sunday.
 

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Inside the Paint - Thursday


November 6, 2014




After watching the favorites dominate the betting counter over the first few days of the NBA regular season, we’re starting to see the pendulum swing the other way, especially last night.


Even though favorites produced a 7-5 straight up record, underdogs prevailed with a 9-3 mark against the spread.


The most notable upset came in Salt Lake City as Utah nipped Cleveland 102-100 as a 5 ½-point home underdog. Jazz small forward Gordon Hayward buried the game-winning jumper as time expired.


The Cavaliers are now 1-3 it’s obvious that the team hasn’t developed any chemistry and nobody should start criticizing LeBron James and company, yet. For those of you who forgot, Miami started 9-8 in LeBron’s first season in South Florida and the team finished 58-24 and earned a trip to the NBA Finals.


Barring serious injuries, I expect Cleveland to reach the NBA Finals, which isn’t going out on a limb since they’re the top betting choice (5/2) at Sportsbook.ag and every other major betting shop too.


Who will they play?


The Western Conference is stacked and Thursday’s TNT card will feature a pair of games within the conference.


Let’s take a closer look.


San Antonio (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) at Houston (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS)


The Rockets opened as a three-point home favorite and the number has jumped to 3 ½ at most outfits. Despite the current form of Houston and the recent head-to-head history between the pair, I believe the opening number is right.


There is no doubt about it that Houston has looked great, winning and covering five straight to start the season. All of the victories came by double digits and even though the competition hasn’t been great, four of the wins were on the road and I put a lot of stock into that.


On Tuesday, the Rockets pulled away from a solid Miami squad and earned a 108-91 win as a two-point road underdog.


San Antonio has started the season 2-1 but the defending champions haven’t looked great. The two victories are by a combined three points, which includes last night’s 94-92 win against Atlanta. The Spurs failed to cover as eight-point home favorites, dropping their ATS record to 0-3.


Including four wins last season, Houston has won and covered five straight meetings against San Antonio. In the two home games from the 2013-14 season played in Houston, the Rockets were underdogs (+2) in the one meaningful contest. In the other home game played in mid-April, Houston was a six-point ‘chalk’ as the Spurs were expected to rest starters for the playoffs. Seeing Houston give points tonight shows you how the oddsmakers have adjusted their ratings on both clubs.


Total players might want to keep their on the ‘under’ in this matchup tonight. The game opened 201 ½ and has been bet down to 199 ½.


In the last five meetings between the pair, the ‘under’ has gone 4-1. Also, the Rockets (5-0) and Spurs (3-0) have both started the season with perfect ‘under’ records.


The most important metric to handicapping totals is pace, in particular field goals attempted. Most teams average 80 shots per game. TeamRankings is a great site for this and you can see that the Spurs (72.3) and Rockets (73.8) have played to the slowest pace this season. However, Houston leads the league in 3-point attempts (32.2) and San Antonio (23.3) isn’t far behind.


San Antonio did play last night and while some bettors might be hesitant to back them on no rest, make a note that the Spurs went 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS in back-to-back spots last season. The ‘under’ went 12-7 in those games.


Dallas (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) at Portland (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)


This is a great matchup and certainly a solid test for both clubs. Portland is listed as a 2 ½-point home favorite while total opened at 2016 ½.


Dallas has started the 3-1 both SU and ATS, the lone loss coming by one point (100-101) at San Antonio last Tuesday. This Mavericks team might not have an All-Star on their roster but it does have five players averaging double digits and the bench goes 10 deep.


The free agent acquisition of Chandler Parsons has given them another scoring threat, plus backup point guards Jameer Nelson and J.J. Barea have helped immensely. This is the most balanced offensive team in the league from top to bottom and the results are evident.


Dallas leads the league in points per game (111.8) and field goal percentage (52.4) this season. Also, the Mavs are ranked second in true shooting percentage (120.0), which really shows you how efficient they are from the field.


Defensively, the Mavs are allowing 105 PPG, which is ranked 27th in the league and something they need to correct going forward. All of these factors have helped the ‘over’ go 3-1 this season.


Portland could be in for a letdown tonight after beating Cleveland 101-82 on Tuesday as a 2 ½-point home underdog. The Trail Blazers have a great homecourt advantage and it helped as they outscored the Cavaliers 25-13 in the final quarter.


With that victory, the Trail Blazers have now gone 2-1 both SU and ATS at home this season.


Total players could be scratching their heads for this game, especially when you measure the Dallas offense against the Portland defense, which is allowing 92.2 PPG, ranked third in the league.


At home, Portland has allowed 88.7 PPG and that came against three decent opponents in Oklahoma City (with Westbrook), Golden State and Cleveland.


Last season, the Mavericks went 3-1 both SU and ATS versus the Trail Blazers last season and two of those wins came at the Moda Center. The total went 2-2.
 

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Hoop Trends - Thursday


November 6, 2014




ATS TREND OF THE DAY:


-- The Mavericks are 15-0 ATS (11.5 ppg) since Apr 25, 2003 as an away dog of less than eight points with rest after a win where they scored at least 30% of their points on threes.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Trailblazers are 11-0-1 OU (14.58 ppg) since Nov 20, 2006 at home with no more than a days rest after a double digit win where they allowed at least 15 points less than expected.


PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:


-- The Mavericks are 8-0 OU (18.06 ppg) since Jan 29, 2014 after Monta Ellis was not the Mavericks’ high scorer in a home win.


NBA BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Trailblazers are 14-0 ATS (7.39 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after a double-digit home win in which they allowed less than 40.25% from the field.


ACTIVE TRENDS:


-- The Spurs are 0-7-1 ATS (-8.00 ppg) since Jan 15, 2005 and on the road with no rest after a 1-4 point win as a favorite where they led by double digits.
 

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RATED PLAYS:


10 - 10.........................................*****


5 - 6 ........................................DOUBLE PLAY


9 - 4 ........................................TRIPLE PLAY


6 - 6.........................................SLAM DUNK




RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS




Date WLT Pct Net Units Record


11/05/14 17-*7-*0 70.83% +*4650 Detail


11/04/14 9-*7-*0 56.25% +*650 Detail


11/03/14 3-*9-*0 25.00% -*3450 Detail


11/02/14 3-*5-*0 37.50% -*1250 Detail


11/01/14 12-*10-*2 54.55% +*500 Detail


Totals 44-*38-*2 53.66% +1100




Thursday, November 6


Game Score Status Pick Amount


San Antonio - 8:00 PM ET Houston -6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY


Houston - Under 197 500 TRIPLE PLAY




Dallas - 10:30 PM ET Dallas +2.5 500 SLAM DUNK


Portland - Over 208 500 SLAM DUNK
 

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