[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]Inside the Paint - Monday
November 3, 2014
The NBA regular season began last Tuesday and most teams have played at least two games up to this point. Betting on the Association is a marathon and if you’re serious about it, then you can certainly pick your spots and find value.
Since the sample size is small, it’s way too early to start forecasting the playoffs but I do believe we can begin to classify the league into specific groups that should help you with your handicapping.
For betting purposes, I’ve put all 30 teams into one of four categories in the table below.
NBA Betting Categories
1 2 3 4
Chicago Atlanta Boston **Oklahoma City
Cleveland Brooklyn Detroit Orlando
Dallas Charlotte Indiana Philadelphia
Golden State Denver L.A. Lakers -
Houston Memphis Milwaukee -
L.A. Clippers Miami Minnesota -
San Antonio New Orleans New York -
- Phoenix Sacramento -
- Portland Utah -
- Toronto Washington -
1) Quality Clubs (7) – These teams will be favored against any of the remaining 23 teams at home and very likely on the road too. They should beat them barring a terrible shooting night or unless the other opponent really lights it up from the field.
2) Next Tier (10) – These clubs can beat any of the top teams if they bring their “A” game but will have no chance if they don’t show up. And if they don’t show up, they can certainly lose to any of the clubs listed in Category 3.
3) Hit or Miss (10) – While many of these teams will have you cursing on a nightly basis, this is where I believe you can find value. It will be rare to see any of these 10 teams beat clubs from Category 1 but it does happen. Case in point with Knicks beating Cavaliers last Thursday and Kings knocking off Clippers yesterday. I do believe a “3” team can beat a “2” any given night, with good shooting and a lot of breaks. When matched up against one another, I’d probably lean to the underdog and definitely focus on current form, which is one of the key factors I look at in the NBA.
4) Stay Away (3) – I ran out of words to describe Philadelphia and Orlando. The Magic are the better of the two, especially at home, but hard to justify betting on them because they have no identity and head coach Jacque Vaughn doesn’t have a clue. Ironically, the pair square off in Philadelphia on Wednesday.
I only include **Oklahoma City** in this mix because of injuries. The oddsmakers made a mistake on them last Saturday and the Thunder answered with a 102-91 win over Denver as five-point home underdogs. If it wasn’t for a collapse in the fourth quarter against Portland in its opener, OKC could very well be 3-0 ATS.
Enough rambling, here is my quick handicap for tonight’s six-game slate.
Houston at Philadelphia: No overnight sent out on this game because Rockets center Dwight Howard (knee) is ‘questionable’ for the game. Even without Howard, expect to see Houston lay close to double digits. The 76ers have serious issues on offense, averaging 89.3 points per game, which is second worst in the league. I would pass on this game but make a note that Philadelphia did beat Houston 123-117 last season in early November.
Oklahoma City at Brooklyn: Another game with no overnight due to the status of Nets center Brook Lopez (foot). If he isn’t in the lineup, Brooklyn’s defense takes a hit and that’s what new coach Lionel Hollins stresses. As mentioned above, OKC is banged up and if it was to surprise, likely at home. This will be the home opener for Brooklyn. The Thunder are 3-0 to the ‘under’ this season and with no firepower on offense, another low-scoring affair is likely.
New Orleans at Memphis: This game has ugly written all over it and based on the opening total of 188 ½, the oddsmakers somewhat agree. The Grizzlies opened as six-point favorites and the number got hit down quickly (5.5) at CRIS while other shops opened 5. As of Monday, the number is down to four and it’s evident that the pros (sharps) like this Pelicans team. I’m not sold yet only because they lack depth in the backcourt and they can’t hit free throws (61%), ranked last in the league. Even though Memphis is unbeaten (3-0), all three wins came by a combined 14 points. The Pelicans went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS versus the Grizzlies last season, the lone loss by two points. The ‘under’ was 3-1 in the four meetings.
Boston at Dallas: The Mavericks could be 3-0 if it wasn’t for a close loss to San Antonio (100-101) in its opener. It’s hard not to like this Dallas team, which has a great blend of talent, experience and players knowing their roles. They’re playing 10 guys a night and six of them are averaging double figures. The Mavs look like the Spurs minus the better shooting from 3-point land. If Boston shoots well, it can hang around Monday, but I’d be surprised to see an outright win since it can’t come close to the depth of Dallas. Dating back to last season, the Celtics are 4-26 SU and 12-18 ATS versus the Western Conference, which includes Sunday’s 104-90 setback at Houston.
Sacramento at Denver: I haven’t been impressed with the Nuggets at all this season. They were embarrassed on Saturday at OKC and if it wasn’t for Detroit’s incompetence on offense, Denver would be 0-2 right now. With all the being said, I’m surprised the Nuggets opened as eight-point favorites. I understand that Sacramento is on a back-to-back spot but it’s looked good in recent victories against the Trail Blazers (103-94) and Clippers (98-92). The one thing that you don’t like about the Kings is that they’re a two-man team with Rudy Gay (26.3 PPG) and DeMarcus Cousins (23.7 PPG). If either of those two are off, which happens often, they’re done. Since these teams meet again in Sacramento on Wednesday, I would lean Denver tonight and hope it pushes the pace early and often. Then, I would come back with Kings in the middle of the week.
Utah at L.A. Clippers: Los Angeles will be playing on zero days rest tonight after losing to Sacramento 98-92 yesterday afternoon as a 9 ½-point home favorite. With that loss, the Clippers fall to 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS. On Saturday night, the Jazz dominated the Suns on the glass (52-34) and at the free throw line (27-12) en route to an easy 27-point (118-91) victory, their first of the season. Prior to that win, Utah was humbled to the Rockets and Mavericks, both losses by double digits. Is this spot to back L.A. for the win-cover combination? Personally, I’d pass and not having Jamal Crawford (ribs) in the lineup won’t help the cause.[/FONT]
