Cnotes National Basketball League Apri's Picks/Trends/News Thru the Playoffs !!

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, May 26


Oklahoma City @ Golden State

Game 719-720
May 26, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
132.175
Golden State
130.558
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 1 1/2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 7 1/2
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(+7 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, May 26

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OKLAHOMA CITY (66 - 31) at GOLDEN STATE (82 - 14) - 5/26/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-50 ATS (-19.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-39 ATS (-13.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-41 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 66-52 ATS (+8.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 49-40 ATS (+5.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-40 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 59-43 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 41-29 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 67-48 ATS (+14.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-6 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 8-6 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, May 26

Oklahoma City-Golden State (OC 3-1)
Thunder led 72-47/72-53 at half of last two games; Warriors have to defend better or this series is over. Home side won/covered last three games in this series; three of four games in series stayed under the total. Golden State is 9-5 in playoffs after going 73-9 during year; they won five of last six home games (4-2 vs spread). Thunder won/covered once in last six visits here; they won three of last four road games.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 4-5, over: 3-5-1




NBA

Thursday, May 26

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. GOLDEN STATE
Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City

 

[CNOTES]

Game 5 - Thunder at Warriors
May 25, 2016


Where have all of Billy Donovan’s critics gone? The first-year NBA head coach is only five wins away from becoming just the second coach to win a championship in college and pro basketball, an accomplishment that’s only been pulled off by Larry Brown at Kansas (1988) and with the Detroit Pistons (2004).


Donovan took a lot of criticism during the regular season when Oklahoma City appeared to clearly be a step (or two) behind San Antonio and Golden State in the Western Conference. Many pundits went so far as to say the two-time national-title winner at the University of Florida was in over his head as an NBA coach.


Well, Donovan is clearly pulling the right strings recently, as the Thunder have won seven of their last nine games, which have happened to come against the Spurs and Warriors. The last two victories over Golden State have come by 52 combined points.


The narrative for OKC in its previous playoff exits have centered around shot selection, poor decisions and Russell Westbrook not getting Kevin Durant the ball enough. Westbrook, a high-volume shooter who has spent his entire career being maligned for his score-first mentality as a point guard, is suddenly playing high-IQ basketball.


Hell, he’s even verbally discussing with the media how important it is for him to get others involved. Now that is a revelation and Billy D might have something to do with it.


Whatever the case, Oklahoma City (66-31 straight up, 47-49-1 against the spread) dealt out woodshed treatment to the defending champs for the second straight time in Tuesday’s 118-94 scalp as a 1.5-point home underdog. The 212 combined points fell ‘under’ the 221-point total in what was a gut-wrenching defeat for ‘over’ backers.


There were only 36 combined points scored in the fourth quarter. The Thunder alone scored 42 points in the second quarter. As I checked in-game lines during commercial breaks throughout the third stanza, the total was always in the 230s. Golden State had scored 26, 27 and 29 points in the first three quarters, only to be limited to 12 in the final 12 minutes for its lowest-scoring quarter of the entire season.


All five OKC starters scored in double figures. Westbrook was nothing short of sensational, recording a triple-double with 36 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists and four steals. Durant produced 26 points, 11 boards, four assists and four steals, while Serge Ibaka contributed 17 points, seven rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.


Andre Roberson is averaging only 5.3 points and 5.0 rebounds per game in these playoffs, but he exploded in Game 4 for 17 points, 12 rebounds, five steals, two blocked shots and three assists without a turnover. Steven Adams finished with 11 points, seven boards, two assists, two steals and one block, while Dion Waiters had 10 points, three boards and three assists.


In the losing effort, Klay Thompson paced Golden State with 26 points, five rebounds and three steals. His hot shooting in the third quarter helped the Warriors slice a 17-point halftime deficit down to six at the 4:20 mark, but they would get no closer.


Steph Curry struggled mightily with more turnovers (six) than assists (five). The two-time MVP hit only 6-of-20 shots from the field and 2-of-10 from 3-point range. Curry finished with 19 points. The only other Warrior in double figures was Harrison Barnes with 11 points.


Draymond Green, believed by many to be the backbone of this team who always brings fire and intensity, was inexplicably absent for a second straight game. In Game 3, Green had six points, four rebounds, three assists and four turnovers while missing nine of his 10 shots from the field and registering a deplorable plus-minus ratio of -43.


The Michigan State product was equally inept in Game 4. Green made only 1-of-7 shots to leave him in a 2-for-16 shooting slump. He finished with six points, 11 rebounds, three steals, one block and two assists compared to six turnovers. To give you an idea of how dismal those numbers are, consider that Green is (even with his Games 3 and 4 stats included) still averaging 15.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 2.0 blocked shots and 1.6 steals per game in these playoffs. His assists-to-turnovers ratio was 81/27 before producing more giveaways than helpers in back-to-back tilts at OKC.


For Thursday’s Game 5 at Oracle Arena in Oakland, the Westgate SuperBook opened Golden State (82-14 SU, 53-41-2 ATS) as an eight-point favorite with a total of 221 points. Those numbers were sent out late Tuesday night after OKC’s blowout victory.


By Wednesday afternoon, however, the Warriors were favored by seven and the total was down to 220 points. Then by early Wednesday night, Golden State was back to being a 7.5-point ‘chalk.’ Gamblers can take the Thunder to win outright for a monster +275 return (risk $100 to win $275). For first-half wagers, Steve Kerr’s team is favored by five points with a 112.5-point tally. OKC is +240 on the money line for the first half.


These consecutive losses represent the first back-to-back defeats for Golden State since last year’s NBA Finals. While setting an NBA-record with 73 regular-season wins, the Warriors were a perfect 9-0 in bounce-back spots. Likewise, they had responded with three wins in their postseason games coming off a loss prior to Tuesday.


Trailing 3-1 in the series, Golden State is now the +250 underdog to win the series (risk $100 to win $250). OKC is the -300 favorite.


VegasInsider.com’s Kevin Rogers offered up these numbers for teams facing 3-1 deficits: “Nine teams in NBA history have overcome a 3-1 series deficit in the playoffs, as the Warriors are looking to become the 10th squad in this class. Seven of those nine clubs won Game 5 at home with the last team to accomplish this feat being the Rockets last season, who shocked the Clippers with three consecutive victories.”


Rogers continued, “Since 2013, five road teams have had the opportunity to close out a series with a 3-1 advantage, as the Clippers were the last team to fall in this category in 2015. Los Angeles was tripped up at Houston as three-point favorites in the conference semifinals before eventually melting down and getting knocked out. The last squad to win a Game 5 on the road with a 3-1 series lead was Washington in the 2014 opening round against Chicago, while road underdogs up 3-1 in a playoff series have posted a 3-1 ATS record in the last four postseasons.”


VI’s Chris David, who predicted OKC to win the series for a +400 return, was surprised when OKC was at -280 (risk $100 to win $33) for the series price early Wednesday morning. Since then, the number for Thunder has gone up to -300 as noted above.


David explained, “To put things in perspective, the Trail Blazers were 200/1 underdogs to the Warriors after facing a 3-1 series deficit in this year’s conference semifinals. It’s well understood that Portland isn’t on the same level as Golden State but most would agree that the Trail Blazers showed some fire while losing and the same can’t be said for the Warriors in their last two games.”


Golden State has won 46 of its 49 home games, compiling a 28-21 spread record. The Warriors have posted an 11-5 ATS record in 16 games as single-digit home favorites.


OKC owns a 28-20 SU record and a 22-26 ATS mark in its road assignments. The Thunder is 7-7 ATS with four outright wins in 14 games as a road underdog.


The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the four games in this series, with the ‘over’ making its lone appearance in Game 3. The ‘under’ went 2-1 in three regular-season meetings, so it is 5-2 in the seven head-to-head encounters between these West rivals this year.


The ‘over’ is 51-44-1 overall for the Warriors, 26-23 in their home contests. However, the ‘under’ is 5-3 in their eight home playoff games.


The ‘under’ is 51-46 overall for the Thunder, but the ‘over’ has hit at a 26-22 clip in their road outings. The ‘under’ is 4-3 in OKC’s seven postseason road assignments.


David had these thoughts on how the totals have gone in the West finals going into Game 5: “I thought the total outcome for Game 4 was going to be tight and it turned out to be a bad beat, which was directly attributed to Golden State’s offensive collapse in the fourth quarter (12 points). The ‘over’ (222) was the right side and after getting 125 points at the half, needing only 98 points in the final 24 minutes between this pair seemed like a formality. This was the second time in this series that we’ve seen Golden State have a horrendous final 12 minutes (Game 1) and threfore effort affect the game total as well. Including Tuesday’s result, the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 through the first four games but based on the droughts from the Warriors, the ‘over’ could easily be 3-1.”


David added, “Fast forward to Thursday and the total for Game 5 is hovering around 220 points and if you’re leaning to the high side in this game, then you better hope OKC stays off the free throw line. Normally, these freebies help ‘over’ bets but what it’s done is keep Golden State out of its rhythm. The Warriors can post 30-plus points in a quarter on any given night, but they’ve only managed to eclipse that mark five times in this series out of a possible 16 quarters while Oklahoma City has done so six times. The Thunder have combined for 251 points in their two blowout victories and over 25 percent (64) came from the charity stripe. Golden State has been able to control the flow better at home and I’d expect them to connect on Thursday.”


Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on TNT.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- Before Wednesday’s Game 5 of the East finals, Sportsbook.ag had Cleveland listed as the +125 favorite to win this year’s NBA Finals. OKC was at +130, followed by Golden State (4/1) and Toronto (30/1). The Raptors were at 200/1 going into Game 3 after losing in blowout fashion to the Cavs in the first two games.


-- Sportsbook has the following odds for players to win NBA Finals MVP honors. LeBron James is the +180 ‘chalk.’ The next-shortest odds belong to Durant (+220), Westbrook (+280), Curry (5/1), Kyrie Irving (8/1), Green (30/1), Kevin Love (30/1), Ibaka (40/1), Thompson (50/1), Adams (50/1), J.R. Smith (65/1), DeMar DeRozan (75/1), Waiters (100/1) and Tristan Thompson (100/1).


-- Sportsbook’s head oddsmaker Peter Childs provided VI with these potential series prices in the NBA Finals: OKC -130 vs. Cleveland, OKC -800 vs. Toronto, Golden State -300 vs. Cleveland and Golden State -1200 or higher vs. Toronto. Childs told VI, “Even though the Cavaliers would have home court in the finals and LeBron has owned Durant, I believe the Thunder are the better team and would make them a slight favorite here. If the Warriors overcome this deficit, I believe the gambling world would be that much more impressed with this team and that would warrant the higher prices versus the Cavaliers. If the Raptors advance, their only accomplishment would be beating an overrated Cavs team and that’s why they would be sizable ‘dogs in either matchup versus OKC or Golden State.”


-- According to a Wednesday report from the Chicago Sun-Times quoting an anonymous player, Chicago center Joakim Noah has informed teammates that he’s going to leave the Bulls via free agency this offseason. Noah has been a huge part of the organization’s success since coming into the league nine seasons ago. The University of Florida product is reportedly not on good terms with Chicago GM Gar Forman. Noah’s agent denied the accuracy of the report early Wednesday night.


-- Unless you’re a huge OKC fan, I would assume that most people would like to be able to see a Game 6 between the Thunder and Warriors this weekend. There is a huge bright side to the series ending Thursday night, however. It would signal that I don’t have to listen to Chris Weber’s voice and his unfathomably annoying analysis for a long time. And that would be GREAT!

 

[CNOTES]

Kerr: Warriors on brink but ready to rally
May 25, 2016


OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Steve Kerr gave his Golden State players a much-needed mental day off with time to rest their weary bodies, and he got back to work trying to figure out how to save the season against a powerful Thunder team that shows no signs of slowing down.


Back to the basics, back to doing the little things that got the Warriors this far.


After a record 73 wins in the regular season, the Warriors are on the brink as they go into Game 5 of the Western Conference finals Thursday night in Oakland trailing the Thunder 3-1 after a second straight lopsided loss in Oklahoma City.


No denying it's a daunting task for the defending champs - especially given that MVP Stephen Curry is a far cry from being completely healthy.


''Well, it's a sense of reality staring us in the face. We're down 3-1,'' Kerr said Wednesday. ''Momentum can shift quickly in the playoffs. We've seen that the last couple years. Let's take care of business at home, get some momentum back and we've got a chance.''


All season long, the Warriors have taken the best efforts from every opponent. The just haven't shown the vulnerabilities that appeared the past two games in Oklahoma City, where Golden State lost back-to-back games for the first time during its record-setting season.


The flight home was hardly fun following Tuesday's 118-94 defeat.


''It was not festive. It was quiet,'' Kerr said.


The Warriors shot 41 percent and committed 21 turnovers that led to 18 Thunder points. Curry was 6 for 20 and missed eight of his 10 3-point attempts to score 19 points, sparking further talk that he's far from full strength. The unanimous MVP has dealt with ankle, knee and elbow injuries this postseason alone.


Kerr isn't about to put a percentage on his superstar's health.


''I don't do that. If he were struggling with anything, I would know,'' Kerr said. ''Nobody has said anything about Steph being 70 percent to me. Our training staff, relatives, friends, sources with knowledge of our team's thinking, nobody has told me he's 70 percent.''


Golden State will likely need a big night from Curry to get back in this.


Only nine teams in NBA history have rallied from being down 3-1 to win a postseason series, yet Kerr was quick to note, ''I'm guessing most of them weren't the defending champs.''


With the season on the line, first-year Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan expects the Warriors to bring their best while back in front of their home fans.


''Again, we have great respect for Golden State. We know how good of a team they are. You've got to get to a place after each game - what happened in the game, what do we need to get better, what do we do well, what are some changes or adjustments we need to make - and then you've got to move into the next one,'' Donovan said.


''I just don't believe that Game 5 is a continuation from Game 4. This is its own separate game and we're going to have to go now on the road to play in a very difficult environment against a great team.''


The Thunder know full well how close they are but also that nothing will be given to them easily. They last reached the NBA Finals in 2012, losing in five games to the Miami Heat.


Oklahoma City stole Game 1 on the Warriors' raucous home floor in Oracle Arena, where Golden State has lost just three times all season.


''Every game you have a sense of urgency, it's the playoffs and you know what everybody's playing for. We've just got to come out there and be who we are,'' Kevin Durant said. ''We can't put too much pressure on ourselves. We have to go out, play the game, and play with passion and energy. And we know the whole crowd's going to be against us and we have to stick together even more.''


The Thunder are playing with all the poise and passion on both ends, while the Warriors haven't been able to hang around the past two games, in part because of uncharacteristic miscues.


''They've had a lot of frustration over the years. They're healthy. They're whole. They are determined, and they want what we have,'' Kerr said. ''We have a banner hanging up in here and we take great pride in that. It's a hard thing to accomplish, and they've been close, but they haven't done it, and they're coming after us. They're really getting after it and playing well and competing. We've got to stand up to that.''

 

[CNOTES]

Warriors could join list of flopped teams
May 25, 2016


Despite finishing the regular season with a record-breaking 73 wins, the Golden State Warriors find themselves one game away from playoff elimination. Down 3-1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference finals after a 118-94 road loss Tuesday night, the defending NBA champions will have to win three straight games to advance. Golden State would join a list of dominant regular season teams that were eliminated without reaching the finals. Teams like the undefeated 2007 Patriots, who lost after advancing to the Super Bowl, were not included.


- NBA: 1993-94 Seattle SuperSonics


The Sonics had a league-best 63-19 record and the top seed in the West. Behind third-season head coach George Karl and All-Stars Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp, Seattle scored an average of 105.9 points per game. With the retirement of Michael Jordan prior to the 1993-1994 season, the Sonics were a favorite to win the championship. Facing the Denver Nuggets and Hall of Famer Dikembe Mutombo in the first round, the Sonics lost in five games. The Nuggets were the first eight seed to win a playoff series. They lost to the Utah Jazz in the next round.


- NHL: 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings


The Red Wings finished with 62 wins and 131 points, breaking the regular season records set by the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens. Under coach Scotty Bowman, the Red Wings had two separate streaks of nine wins and a 13-game unbeaten streak. Right wing Sergei Fedorov had a team-high 39 goals, followed by captain Steve Yzerman with 36. Colorado upset the Red Wings in six games in the conference finals, then went on to win the Stanley Cup.

- NFL: 1998 Minnesota Vikings


The 15-1 Vikings earned the top spot in the NFC Central and were only the third team in NFL history to win 15 games. Minnesota broke the then scoring record with 556 points, led by quarterback Randall Cunningham, wide receiver Cris Carter and rookie wide receiver Randy Moss. Moss and Carter combined for 29 touchdowns and each had over 1,000 yards receiving. John Randle had 10.5 sacks and anchored a defense that allowed only 296 points in the regular season. The team lost 30-27 to the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC championship. Kicker Gary Anderson - who had not missed a kick all season - missed a 38-yard field goal that would have iced the game for the Vikings, who lost in overtime.


- MLB: 2014 Los Angeles Angels


With a 98-64 record, the Angels were the best team in baseball during the 2014 regular season. Los Angeles was first in runs behind sluggers Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. The team also had starting pitcher Garrett Richards, but the Cy Young contender injured his knee in August and missed the remainder of the season. The Kansas City Royals stunned the Angels with a 3-0 sweep in the American League Division Series. Los Angeles' offense disappeared in the series, as the team batted just .170.


---


This story has been corrected to show that the Red Wings scored 131 points during the 1995-96 regular season.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA MONEYLINE


NBA > (719) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (720) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-05-26 21:05:00 - 2016-05-26 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 28 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+20.95 units)


NBA > (719) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (720) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-05-26 21:05:00 - 2016-05-26 21:05:00
Play ON OKLAHOMA CITY using money line in All games in all playoff games
The record is 10 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+12 units)


-----------------


NBA FIRST HALF


NBA > (719) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (720) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-05-26 21:05:00 - 2016-05-26 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE ?>in the first halfin All games versus the 1rst half line in home games
The record is 32 Wins and 16 Losses for the this season (+14.4 units)


---------------


TOP POWERLINE


NBA > (719) OKLAHOMA CITY @ (720) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-05-26 21:05:00 - 2016-05-26 21:05:00
Line: OKLAHOMA CITY BTB PowerLine: OKLAHOMA CITY3
Edge On: OKLAHOMA CITY (10.5)

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, MAY 26

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


OKC at GS 09:00 PM

GS -7.5


U 220.5

 

[CNOTES]

back from vacation......now lets get on to game# 2

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's six-pack


Pointspreads on some college football games this Labor Day weekend........
-- Clemson (-8.5) at Auburn
-- Oklahoma (-9.5) @ Houston
-- Notre Dame @ Texas (even)
-- Kansas State @ Stanford (-16.5)
-- Appalachian State @ Tennessee (-19)
......and one from later in the season (Nov 26)
-- Utah State @ BYU (-6)-- This game opened at BYU -1


Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday.......


13) James Shields got traded to the White Sox for Erik Johnson and a 17-year old who has never played a pro game; San Diego is also on the hook for $29M of $56M left on Shields' contract, assuming he doesn't opt out after this season.


12) In essence, White Sox get Shields for $9M a year thru 2018, a pretty good deal.


11) Milwaukee SS Jonathan Villar has homered in his last three games, after hitting two homers in his first 51 games. Philly is definitely a hitters' park.


10) If you care about such things, over is 57-32-3 in interleague games this year.


9) In Oakland's last 32 games, take out Rich Hill's starts and A's starting pitchers have a 7.90 ERA-- the Donaldson trade has turned into a complete disaster- the two starting pitchers Oakland got were Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin- no bueno.


8) White Sox brought up OF Jason Coats who left his first big league game with a lacerated mouth after a collision with JB Shuck. Tough way to begin a career.


7) NBA teams who won Game 1 of Finals by 15+ points are 11-2 in those series.


6) San Francisco 49ers aren't favored in any of their games this coming season.


5) Looking thru social media for the last 36 hours, one thing is for sure; Muhammad Ali posed for a hell of a lot of pictures with fans-- lot of people who are famous themselves were showing off their picture(s) with the Champ Saturday.


4) Speaking of Ali, back in 60's, when he was training in Miami, one of his sparring partners was Rich Kotite, then a football player at Miami and later head coach of the Jets and Eagles.


3) I've read almost all the John Grisham books and seen all the movies that were made out of his mostly legal-themed books; in my opinion, the two best movies were Runaway Jury and The Client. I think Runaway Jury is a great movie, with Dustin Hoffman, Gene Hackman and John Cusack.


2) I hope actress Jennifer Garner buys her agent a Cadillac for Christmas; she is an awful lot of commercials.


1) College baseball tournament has a weird dynamic to it; the pro draft begins this coming Thursday, right in the middle of the tournament. Nothing like some of your best players being totally distracted during the team's most important time of year.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA knowledge


Cleveland-Golden State (GSt 1-0)


Warriors won last six games with Cleveland, beating Cavaliers in six games in LY's Finals; Curry/Thompson combined to score 20 points in Game 1, their lowest total of season, and they still won easily. Golden State has had time to rest now; they're 10-1, 9-2 vs spread at home in playoffs. Cleveland is 12-3 in playoffs, losing three of last four road games. Guards on Cleveland aren't as long, athletic as Thunder's, a problem against Curry-Thompson, when they get warmed up again. Warriors' bench was +55 in Game 1. JR Smith played 18:00 before he took his first shot in last game- they obviously need a lot more from him


Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1
Final: Favorites: 1-0, Over: 0-1

 

[CNOTES]

Pro Basketball Trend Report


CLEVELAND (69 - 28) at GOLDEN STATE (86 - 14) - 6/5/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 19-33 ATS (-17.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 56-41 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-40 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 60-42 ATS (+13.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 62-47 ATS (+10.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 63-43 ATS (+15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 72-100 ATS (-38.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-6 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 9-4 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NBA (PROFESSIONAL)


DUNKEL'S HIGHLIGHTED GAME


Cleveland at Golden State - Sunday June 5, 2016
The Warriors look to follow up their 104-89 win in Game 1 as they face a Cavaliers team that is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU defeat of more than 10 points in the previous game. Golden State is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Warriors favored by 9.


Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-6).

 

[CNOTES]

NBA Basketball Betting Trends - Sun - June, 5


Cleveland at Golden State, 8:00 ET
Cleveland: 18-7 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
Golden State: 4-12 ATS in home games in non-conference games

 

[CNOTES]

NBA ATS


NBA > (503) CLEVELAND@ (504) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-06-05 20:05:00 - 2016-06-05 20:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE against the spread in All games after a non-conference game
The record is 21 Wins and 7 Losses for the this season (+13.3 units)


===============


NBA MONEYLINE


NBA > (503) CLEVELAND@ (504) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-06-05 20:05:00 - 2016-06-05 20:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games after a win by 10 points or more
The record is 62 Wins and 13 Losses for the last two seasons (+35.3 units)


==================


NBA TOTALS


NBA > (503) CLEVELAND@ (504) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-06-05 20:05:00 - 2016-06-05 20:05:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games on Sunday games
The record is 68 Overs and 130 Unders for the since 1992 (+55.2 units)




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NBA TOP POWERLINE


NBA > (503) CLEVELAND @ (504) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-06-05 20:05:00 - 2016-06-05 20:05:00
Line: CLEVELAND BTB PowerLine: CLEVELAND-2
Edge On: CLEVELAND (4)

 

[CNOTES]

NBA Finals Game 2 Preview
June 4, 2016


NBA Finals - Game 2 - Warriors lead 1-0
Cleveland at Golden State (-6.5/208.5), 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC


Every playoff series is about adjustments. Thursday night’s Game 1 reaffirmed the superiority of Golden State’s depth, a huge reason it won the 2015 NBA Finals over the depleted Cavaliers.


Losing a game where they limited Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to 20 combined points could be viewed as disconcerting by the Cavs behind closed doors, but there is actually plenty for the to build on in spite of a 104-89 loss that saw them outscored 30-21 in the fourth quarter.


With an extra day to prepare for Game 2, head coach Tyronn Lue and his staff can now devise some new strategies to try and ensure that Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa, who combined for 31 points on 13-for-15 shooting, don’t go off again. Cleveland coaches have examined what worked lineup-wise and what didn’t, so we’ll likely see a far different substitution pattern out of Lue.


Channing Frye, who had played a major role in the sweep of Atlanta and conference finals win over Toronto, got just seven minutes and took one shot. He averaged 13.8 points in 19.3 minutes per game against the Hawks in the series where the Cavs looked their best, firing up 3-pointers and opening things up with a faster pace. Against the Raptors, he shot 63 percent and averaged 9.0 points per game, so Lue lamented being unable to get him more minutes to allow him to impact the game more. The first-year head coach has already divulged that Frye will be out there more often on Sunday, hoping his ability to space the floor will punish double-teams the Warriors consistently sent at LeBron James.


James will have to make adjustments himself. Despite 23 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists, there were instances where he could’ve been more aggressive. He looked to put the ball on the ground and get to the rim at times, but also had instances where he was isolated against the much smaller Curry and failed to get a bucket. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love combined for 43 points on 39 field goal attempts in part because James made an effort to get both going, but since the Cavs didn’t get their desired result, it remains to be seen whether their approach changes.


J.R. Smith attempted just three shots, all 3-pointers, despite playing 36 minutes. Only Matthew Dellavedova (-19) and Iman Shumpert (-15) had a worse plus/minus than Smith (-13), as none of James wing partners were able to get it going. Richard Jefferson, who is expected to play a large role in this series due to his versatility, was also just 1-for-3. Better ball movement must lead to one of those guys breaking out to help field a more balanced offense.


VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers expects to see changes yield results for Cleveland given recent history in Game 2.


“A split through the first two games of the NBA Finals has been the norm recently as each of the past seven years we haven’t seen a team go up 2-0 in this round. In four of those instances, the team that won Game 2 actually lost the series opener by double-digits, so there is value in Cleveland on the money-line at +230,” Rogers said.


“LeBron James-led teams have done a solid job of rebounding from a loss in playoff series openers. As a member of the Heat and Cavaliers, James has won nine straight Game 2’s of a playoff series after dropping Game 1, including three straight victories in this situation in the NBA Finals. In fact, all three wins came in the role of a road underdog, winning at Golden State (2015), San Antonio (2014), and Oklahoma City (2012).”


Although this is not a must-win considering the series shifts to Cleveland for games on Wednesday and Friday, James wants this Game 2 in Oakland badly and was able to steal it in OT last year in spite of the absence of Irving and Love. Since Game 1 got away from the Cavs late in the third quarter and early in the fourth with James on the bench, perhaps we’ll see him tell Lue that he wants to play closer to all 48 minutes here.


LeBron played a season-high 46 minutes in the Game 4 loss in Toronto during the Eastern Conference finals, but averaged 45.8 minutes against the Warriors in the 2015 Finals, which included playing 50 minutes in last year’s Game 2. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him sit just a few minutes here, so keep that in mind when handicapping any James-related props.


Steve Kerr is looking to become only the second head coach in NBA history to win titles in his first two tries, a feat that dates back to 1948-49 when John Kundla won with the Minneapolis Lakers. Despite Thursday’s victory, he saw plenty that can be tweaked and improved upon, starting with the Splash Brothers shooting a combined 8-for-27, including 4-for-13 from 3-point range. Sure, both Curry and Thompson had off nights, but Kerr always feels he can do more to make their job easier, ensuring cleaner looks.


VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David is counting on the Warriors being more efficient as they look to end LeBron's Game 2 reign.


“The NBA Finals haven’t seen a team go up 2-0 since the 2008 postseason when the Boston Celtics captured the first two games at home against the L.A. Lakers. While that angle is hard to ignore, it’s tough to dismiss the fact that the Warriors are 10-1 at home in the playoffs. More importantly, they’ve covered nine of those games,” said David. “Golden State opened as a higher favorite in this game and based on the respect from the oddsmakers, I’d go against the split (1-1) trend and look for the Warriors to go up 2-0 on Sunday.”


It’s impossible to envision Golden State will have a 45-10 edge in bench points against the Cavs again, so the defending champs must get a better effort out of all their starters. One positive from Game 1 was that Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut each got easy looks that they were able to turn into points as a result of excellent ball movement. Barnes got off to a fast start and ended up 6-for-10 from the field, while Bogut shot 5-for-7, getting his buckets right at the rim in matching his second-highest scoring output of the postseason despite playing only 15 minutes.


Bigs Bogut, Festus Ezeli, Anderson Varejao and Marreese Speights played just 30 combined minutes as the Warriors opted for small ball more often than not. Despite often being without a true rim protector, the Warriors limited Cleveland’s opportunities at the rim, forcing nine missed layups that the Cavs could and should’ve made, by Lue’s count.


With Frye set to get more minutes and both teams hoping to shoot better than the 33 percent each managed from beyond the arc in Game 1, we could see a higher-scoring contest on Sunday after the ‘under’ came in rather easily in the opener, staying well below 210.


The total on Game 2 has been adjusted and opened at 207, getting bet up to 208.5 since according to VI’s David, that outcome was directly attributed to poor shooting.


”Golden State’s defense is vastly underrated and their effort on that side of the court has helped the ‘under’ go 7-4 at Oracle Arena in the playoffs. The Warriors have held six opponents under 100 during this span and four under 90 points. It’s easy to think Cleveland will turn it around on Sunday but it just doesn’t match up well with the Warriors,” David explained. ”Dating back to last year’s finals, the Cavs are averaging 91.7 points per game versus the Warriors and two of the better efforts (100, 95) were helped with overtime. I believe Cleveland will get on track at home offensively but would fade the offense again in Game 2 and take its team total ‘under’ (101).”


Thursday’s broadcast was the most-watched Game 1 in NBA Finals history, so since the start time moves up an hour for Sunday’s primetime start, you can bet there’s going to be a ton of attention being paid to this one. Neither team played the series opener they hoped for, but both know there’s a ton of time left and work to do. The Cavs hope to steal homecourt advantage. The Warriors are out to hold serve. Both will look to settle in and make the shots they normally would, something that eluded the finalists in Game 1.

 

[CNOTES]

Cavs look to avoid 0-2 hole
June 5, 2016

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (69-28) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (86-14)


Western Conference Finals
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -6.5, Total: 208.0


The Cavaliers will be looking to avoid a 2-0 series deficit when they face the Warriors on Sunday.


Cleveland looked miserable in Game 1, losing 104-89 as a six-point road favorite on Thursday. The Cavaliers shot a miserable 38.1% from the floor and turned the ball over 15 times in the game.


They will need to be a lot better offensively on Sunday, but they also need to do buckle down defensively as well. The Cavaliers allowed the Warriors to shoot 49.4% from the floor in Game 1 and it’s hard to imagine Cleveland winning a game without holding Golden State to 45% or worse from the field.


The Warriors, meanwhile, will be feeling excellent about the way they played. Golden State’s bench outscored Cleveland’s 45-10 and the team now gets to play at home once again in Game 2.


The Warriors are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS when hosting the Cavaliers over the past three seasons, so Cleveland will be tasked with winning somewhere where the team hasn’t been great in the past. Fortunately for the Cavaliers, they are 18-7 ATS when playing only their second straight game in five days this season.


The Warriors are, however, 21-7 ATS after a non-conference game this season. Both teams will be at full strength coming into this game, so injuries will hopefully not factor into the outcome of this one.


The Cavaliers looked horrible on Thursday and one guy that must step it up in Game 2 is SF LeBron James (24.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 7.1 APG, 2.2 SPG in playoffs). Although James didn’t have much help from his teammates in Game 1, he did shoot just 9-for-21 from the floor and turned the ball over four times.


This team is at its best when James is playing mistake-free basketball and he must be more efficient for the remainder of this series. He also took far too many jumpers on Thursday and will need to make it his goal to get more shots around the rim on Sunday.


PG Kyrie Irving (24.4 PPG, 5.0 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) is going to need to be a lot better defensively moving forward for Cleveland. He had 26 points in Game 1, but his deficiencies on the defensive end were what stood out. The Warriors kept attacking him on Thursday and he’ll need to show a lot more effort on that end in Game 2.


PF Kevin Love (17.3 PPG, 9.8 RPG in playoffs) also needs to be better in this series. He had 17 points and 13 boards in Game 1, but he was 7-for-17 from the floor and that is not a very good percentage for somebody with his size. He’ll need to start getting some more out of his touches around the basket, as it would really give him some more space to utilize his jumper moving forward.


The Warriors dominated the Cavaliers in Game 1 and the guys that were responsible for that were PG Shaun Livingston (8.8 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.1 RPG in playoffs) and SF Andre Iguodala (8.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs).


Livingston and Iguodala came off the bench to combine for 32 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. Both of them were excellent on defense and the Warriors are going to be unstoppable if they can continue to provide this type of offensive production.


PG Stephen Curry (25.4 PPG, 6.1 APG, 5.8 RPG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) and SG Klay Thompson (25.2 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs), meanwhile, combined for just 20 points in Game 1.


The two of them were really off with their jumpers, but that is actually a reason for the Warriors to be even more confident about the way this series will go.


It’s unlikely that Curry and Thompson will combine to score less than 40 in many games in this series, so the Cavaliers are going to have to deal with them going off eventually.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, JUNE 5


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


CLE at GS 08:00 PM


GS -6.5


U 209.0

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- Ben Simmons signed with Nike, taking less money than adidas offered.


-- Colorado's rookie SS Trevor Story has 16 HRs, but only six of them have been at Coors Field.


-- Cubs' pitcher Kyle Hendricks is a scratch golfer.


-- Maryland's basketball team is 9-0-1 vs spread in its last 10 conference tournament games; Ohio State is 0-6-1 vs spread in its last seven.


-- Eight of last 12 Super Bowl champs made the playoffs again the next year; nine of 11 made it the second year, eight of last 13 the third year.


-- Compare that to Super Bowl losers; only four of last 15 made the playoffs the third year after that Super Bowl loss. It would appear as if winning a title helps in sustaining the success of the program over a period of time.


**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings.......


13) Is a hot dog a sandwich? Inquiring minds want to know. Most people I've heard say no, but it is meat in between two pieces of bread, so those who argue "yes" have some ammunition on their side. Let me know what you think.


12) More hot dog banter: Everyone puts different stuff on hot dogs, but how in god's name can anyone eat sauerkraut? It is the single worst-tasting food I've ever eaten, narrowly beating about broccoli and beet greens, which are both terrible.


11) Remember when Noah Syndergaard got tossed for throwing behind Chase Utley at Citi Field a week ago Friday? Controversial call, and umpire Adam Hamari has not worked the plate again since that game- he makes his return behind the.plate tonight in Los Angeles, at the Colorado-Dodger game, 12 days later after the Syndergaard mess.


Did he get a week's suspension? No one is talking, but it looks that way.


10) Odd fact of the day: On September 12, 1969, Mets swept a doubleheader from the Pirates, winning both games 1-0. Both runs were driven in by Mets' pitchers.


9) Mets have scored least amount of runs they've ever scored at this point in season, despite hitting most HRs they've hit at this stage of the season, since 1989.


8) As a baseball fan, whether it be the A's or my fantasy team, I'd much rather my players had the four days of the All-Star break off, rather than being busy all week during the break, either in Home Run Derby or in the All-Star Game. Let 'em relax.


Still think that two years ago, when A's stumbled to a 22-33 finish, having six of their guys in All-Star Game contributed to their lame finish- they got tired. Plus, the stupid Cespedes trade didn't help any, either.


7) This from CBSSports.com: Scientists are in agreement that 22 hours without sleeping has been shown to cause cognitive and reactive impairment comparable to being legally drunk.


Not sure what it means if you stay up for 24 hours and you're also drinking heavily.


6) Tim Lineceum's first two starts for the Angels' AAA team: 10 IP, six hits, seven runs (five earned), five walks, 11 strikeouts. Most people think his next start will be for the Los Angeles Angels, who desperately need starting pitching.


5) In their long history, San Diego Chargers are 421-420-11 in regular season games, 11-17 in playoff games, losing their one and only Super Bowl appearance.


4) In his first five AAA rehab games since his suspension ended, Jose Reyes is 2-16 with four walks while batting second for Albuquerque.


3) Former Colorado closer Brian Fuentes was saying on Twitter Tuesday night that as a former closer, it was not the same when he came into a game if it wasn't a situation where he could get a save. Just not the same adrenaline rush, he said.


2) Yordano Ventura drilled Manny Machado in the fifth inning last night and a brawl erupted in Baltimore. Ventura is a noted head-hunter who rarely has to bat because he pitches in the American League. Machado is a hothead, too; both these guys have had scuffles with the A's in the last two years. Suspensions will follow.


1) RIP Sean Rooks, 46, who collapsed and died in a Philadelphia restaurant Tuesday night, hours after interviewing with the Knicks for an assistant coaching job. Rooks was a 12-year NBA veteran who played college ball at Arizona- he had been with the 76ers as an assistant coach specializing in player development. RIP, sir.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA


Wednesday, June 8


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NBA Finals Game 3 betting preview and odds: Warriors at Cavaliers
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Do-it-all forward Draymond Green added knockdown 3-point shooter to his resume in Game 2 as he made five 3-pointers while contributing 28 points, seven rebounds and five assists.


Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (pick, 205.5)


The Golden State Warriors won the first two games of the NBA Finals by an average of 24 points, leaving the host Cleveland Cavaliers facing a dire situation entering Wednesday's Game 3. Not only has Cleveland been annihilated in the first two contests but power forward Kevin Love is listed as questionable due to a concussion suffered during Sunday's 110-77 loss.


Love's availability will be decided on Wednesday but what is more certain is that the Cavaliers - including forward LeBron James - need to step up their play after their embarrassing showing on Sunday. "We're still here and we have a chance to turn this series around if we come in and do what we need to do both offensively and defensively," James told reporters. "Internally, we have to figure out how we can be better. We have to figure out how we can help one another. We definitely have to figure out how we can get more guys involved." One more victory will allow the Warriors to supplant the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (87 wins) for the most overall wins in a season but point guard Stephen Curry made it clear his team isn't about to relax with a 2-0 series lead. "There's no point in celebrating or jumping up and down and saying, 'Look at us,'" Curry told reporters. "We're two games away from winning a championship. We still have to go out and get the job done. It's a trap to think that we've figured things out and that we have the perfect formula to beat Cleveland and they have no chance in the series."


TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC


LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as one-point favorites at home for Game 3 despite their awful performance in Games 1 and 2 in Golden State. The public jumped all over the Warriors and by Monday afternoon the line had jumped the fence and the Dubs were favored at most books. The public action took another turn and the line began to creep back toward the Cavs on Tuesday afternoon - by Tuesday evening the line had settled in as a Pick. There's no telling which way the line will turn on gameday. Keep your eyes on the line history here.


ABOUT THE WARRIORS (87-14, 58-41-2 ATS, 52-48-1 O/U): Do-it-all forward Draymond Green added knockdown 3-point shooter to his resume in Game 2 as he made five 3-pointers while contributing 28 points, seven rebounds and five assists and playing his typical sturdy defense. "The way they're guarding us, Draymond's open a lot," Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "So he becomes our safety valve when there's pressure. He becomes an open shooter when they're jumping out at Steph or Klay (Thompson), so it's a good situation for him." Curry and Thompson each made four 3-pointers in Game 2 but neither player has produced a high-scoring game with Curry averaging 14.5 points and Thompson just 13.


ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (69-29, 46-49-3 ATS, 48-50 O/U): Love didn't practice on Tuesday and must clear the concussion protocol before he can play but James' comments made it sound like Cleveland already knows Love is unlikely to be on the floor. "It's going to be the next man up. We're down 0-2, and we can't afford to look and say, 'Wow, Kev's not playing. What are we going to do?'" James told reporters after practice. "It's next man up, because it's a must-win for us. So obviously his health is very important, but in the situation we're in now, we've got to stay confident. And whoever Coach decides to give the nod to has got to be ready to go, and everybody else has to step up." If Love sits out, veteran shooter Channing Frye will likely play a larger role and little-used Timofey Mozgov will be a bigger part of the rotation.


TRENDS:


* Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 6-0 in Warriors last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
fault* Over is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
* Warriors are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.


CONSENSUS: At the time of publication of this preview the Warriors were picking up 51 percent of the wagers and Over was grabbing 54 percent of the action.




-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



NBA
Dunkel


Wednesday, June 8




Golden State @ Cleveland


Game 505-506
June 8, 2016 @ 9:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
130.277
Cleveland
135.162
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 5
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 1
205 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+1); Over








NBA
Long Sheet


Wednesday, June 8


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


GOLDEN STATE (87 - 14) at CLEVELAND (69 - 29) - 6/8/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 57-41 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 61-42 ATS (+14.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-25 ATS (+6.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 64-43 ATS (+16.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 45-31 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
CLEVELAND is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after scoring 85 points or less this season.
CLEVELAND is 31-39 ATS (-11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 8-6 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-4 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 season


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------








NBA
Short Sheet


Wednesday, June 8


Golden State at Cleveland, 9:00 ET
Golden State: 13-4 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more
Cleveland: 8-18 ATS after a loss by 10 points or mores






NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up


Wednesday, June 8


Cleveland-Golden State (GSt 2-0)
Warriors won last seven games with Cleveland, beating Cavaliers in six games in LY's Finals; Warriors are 3-4 on road in playoffs, with at least one road loss in each series- they won last three in Cleveland, by 34-8-21 points. Cavaliers are 12-4 in playoffs, 7-0 at home. Guards on Cleveland aren't as long, athletic as Thunder's, a problem against Curry-Thompson. Cavaliers were up 30-22 in last game; still lost by 33. Last four Golden State games, last three Cavalier games stayed under the total.


Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1
Final: Favorites: 2-0, Over: 0-2








NBA


Wednesday, June 8


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


9:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. CLEVELAND
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 13 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Golden State
Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State

 

[CNOTES]

NBA Finals Game 3 Preview
June 8, 2016


NBA Finals - Game 3 - Warriors lead 2-0
Golden State at Cleveland (PK/206.5), 9:00 p.m. ET - ABC
We’ve reached the point in the NBA Finals where all clichés apply.


Since the favorite won both home games, Game 3 is a must-win for the team returning home to lick their wounds after being outscored by an average of 107-83. The old playoff adage is that a series doesn’t start unless the home team loses, but since a 3-0 deficit is basically insurmountable, the Cavaliers’ chances are effectively over if they don’t win.


Because the venue change favors Cleveland and LeBron James is involved, oddsmakers are giving the Eastern Conference champs the benefit of the doubt by calling this a pick’em, respecting the homecourt edge in spite of what we’ve seen transpire to date. After all, Golden State has won the first two games by only 48 points thus far, an NBA record.


There’s an injury concern too, since forward Kevin Love must clear the NBA’s concussion protocol. According to ESPN, he’s confident he’ll be able to play, but that won’t be official until closer to tip-off.


If Love can’t go, 7-foot center Timofey Mozgov, previously banished to the end of the bench for most of the postseason, is expected to have a larger role. While everything tangible seems to favor the Warriors, trends and the expectation that the Cavs will be able to atone for a dismal 110-77 Game 2 loss do fuel faith in the Cavs, especially since Golden State has historically been a letdown in this spot.


"The Warriors have dominated through the first two games of the NBA Finals, but Golden State has struggled in Game 3's of the playoffs the last two seasons. This postseason, the defending champions lost to the Rockets by one point in Game 3 of the opening round and 12 points of Game 3 in the second round to the Blazers," VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers said. "Granted, Stephen Curry missed both those games due to injury, but he played in the Game 3 blowout loss of the Western Conference Finals at Oklahoma City.


"In the role of a road favorite, the Warriors are 0-6 ATS since the start of the 2015 playoffs in Game 3's, which includes a setback in last season's NBA Finals at Cleveland. However, if the Warriors get flipped to a road underdog on Wednesday, the champs have been successful as Golden State rolled Houston in Game 3 of last season's Western Conference Finals, 115-80 in their only 'dog opportunity in this situation.”


We’ll see which way the money moves the line, but Golden State is well aware of their struggles away from Oakland, sporting a 3-4 record (straight up and against the spread) in road games this postseason. Their last opportunity in this spot came in that must-win Game 6 comeback conquest at Oklahoma City, so they’re looking to build off that performance. Emotional leader Draymond Green has already said it’s on him to have his teammates ready to play. For the Cavs, it’s all on the King, who has led his team to a perfect 7-0 mark in Cleveland these playoffs, bringing their record to 40-8 (.800) on the season.


The beauty of the NBA Finals is that you get to hear a variety of voices commenting about the show unfolding in front of them. Everyone from Magic Johnson to Larry King to Jerry West has chimed in, as has Phil Jackson, who chose to put a comeback bid squarely on James’ shoulders while sharing his recollections of his top guy being put through the ringer the way James has been over the past few days.


"It did something to Michael Jordan," Jackson said of criticism directed at him after going down 2-0 in the 1993 Eastern Conference finals. "You learned something about pulling the cape of Superman. It's not a good idea. He was a man possessed after that. I think it's going to take something for LeBron to step into that. Put his cape on and say, 'I'm going to have to take over a lot of this series, doing the things beyond my level or my normal capacity.' He's been a team player up until this point but I think he's going to have to step beyond that."


So, to recap, the most decorated head coach in NBA history thinks LeBron needs to break character and become more aggressive in order to get his team back in the series. Go out and get your 50 points, LeBron. That’s what M.J. would’ve done.


"What does that actually mean?" James responded, when told of the ‘possessed’ advice. "I think, for me to go out and be who I am, and play as true to the game and as hard as I can, and try to lead this team as who I am. I’m not anybody else. I’m not Michael, I’m not (Muhammad) Ali, I’m not nobody else that’s done so many great things for sport. I am who I am, and if I’m able to go out and put together a game like that -- it wasn’t because I was possessed. It’s because I worked on my craft all season long, and that’s the result of it. Phil’s a great coach. Mike’s a great player. But I am who I am."


James has always been the ultimate team player, by far more Magic than Jordan. At his most effective, he liberates teammates to produce by creating opportunities with the attention he commands and his exceptional on-court IQ and passing skills. He’s dished out nine assists in each of the first two games and should’ve been in double-digits if teammates had knocked down more shots. Kyrie Irving is shooting 33 percent despite averaging 18 points per game, which is a drastic drop-off from what he did against the Eastern Conference these playoffs, posting a shooting clip of 48 percent and 23.5 points per game. Against Toronto, he averaged 25.3 points at home, shooting 57 percent. Cleveland is 6-1 this postseason when J.R. Smith scores in double-figures, but he’s scored a total of eight points in these Finals, shooting 2-for-7 from 3-point range.


Jackson might have meant well with his advice, but he’s dead wrong. James is going to need Irving and Smith to make shots so that his efficient game can flourish without him trying to force the action. In the 21st-century NBA, one player, not even Jordan, can defeat a team simply by becoming possessed. Especially not Golden State, which has taken the collective approach to the brink of becoming the winningest single-season team of all-time counting regular-season and playoffs.


The Warriors would be surpassing Jackson’s 1995-96 Bulls, who went 87-13 in winning it all two decades ago. Golden State comes into Game 3 of the NBA Finals at 87-14. It comes in having found its defensive chops, reminding everyone that there are two sides to its show. On that side of the ball, they’ve dominated of late, particularly in the second half of their last five games.


We’ll see if the Cavs believe it’s still best to try and run with the Warriors at an accelerated pace or attempt to slow things down and disrupt their rhythm, a formula that worked some last year.


The first two games in this series easily went ‘under’ the number and oddsmakers opened Game 3’s total at 206 ½. VegasInsider.com NBA Totals Expert Chris David doesn’t believe we’ll see a change in Cleveland.


"I still believe the value is with the ‘under’ and I’m very surprised the total isn’t lower. These teams have now played 10 times over the last two seasons and the ‘under’ has gone 6-3-1 in those games," said David. "It’s become very apparent that Cleveland doesn’t have the scheme or manpower to score on Golden State and believing that will change at home probably could be wishful thinking. Even though the Warriors have surrendered 112.5 PPG on the road in this year’s playoffs, the Cavs haven’t proven they could come close to those numbers for this particular matchup.


"Cleveland is averaging 90.7 PPG in its last 10 against Golden State, which includes the 89 and 77-point effort in this series. I’m well aware that Cleveland has played better at home in the playoffs, especially offensively (111 PPG) but the overused cliché of 'styles makes fights' fits perfectly in this series. In last year’s finals, the totals ranged from 193 ½ to 203 ½ and I’m not sure why we aren’t seeing similar numbers this summer. With all that being said, I’m buying the ‘under’ in Game 3 (206 ½) and I would also lean to Golden State’s team total ‘under’ of 103 ½."


The Cavs need to stop giving up easy buckets and ensure they make the Warriors work at both ends. Whether they go big or small, Cleveland has to find a flow that has eluded it. We’ll see if returning home helps the Eastern Conference champs regain their rhythm.


Currently, we’re watching James fail in another NBA Finals, but oddsmakers aren’t sold this is over yet. Curry, the unanimous MVP, hasn’t even played well in the series and has admitted his knee needs rest. Green has had issues with his energy level on the road, which has dragged down teammates. Intrigue remains in spite of Sunday’s massacre. Game 3 will either end the series or get it started again.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Friday, June 10

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NBA Finals Game 4 betting preview and odds: Warriors at Cavaliers
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Cleveland was in desperation made going into Game 3 and realizes that it needs to maintain that sense of urgency on Friday.

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5, 206.5)

The Cleveland Cavaliers came home and completely changed the tone of the series in a dominating Game 3 performance and have a chance to even things up at two wins apiece when they host the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday. The Cavaliers have a decision to make in regards to power forward Kevin Love, who sat out the previous game with a concussion and watched his team’s defense improve.

The absence of Love allowed Cleveland to go to a smaller lineup with LeBron James starting at power forward and Richard Jefferson sliding into the first unit, which solved some of the matchup problems the team was having with Warriors power forward Draymond Green in the first two games. “We definitely need him back," Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters of Love, though he would not commit to returning the former star to the starting lineup. "We miss his rebounding. We miss his post presence. We miss his 3-point shooting. So we definitely want him back, but he has to take the steps necessary to get himself back.” Golden State won the first two games by a combined 48 points despite reigning two-time MVP Steph Curry not playing up to his usual standards, and another sub-par effort in the Game 3 loss brought his struggles under the microscope. “I stick to my preparation and my mental strategy of staying within myself to get myself out of a hole, and not panicking and not over-complicating things and not trying to psych myself out,” Curry told reporters. “There’s a reason I have confidence out there, and it’s about how I prepare for games.”

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as two-point favorites at home for Game 4 following their very impressive victory Wednesday. By Thursday morning the line settled down a 1/2 point to -1.5. The total opened at 206.5 and also dropped a 1/2 point by Thursday morning to 206. Keep your eyes on the line history here.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (87-15, 58-42-2 ATS, 53-48-1 O/U): Coach Steve Kerr called his team “soft” after Game 3, and the players seemed to agree with their coach when they spoke to the media the following day. “Because we were,” Curry responded when asked about the “soft” label. “They were more physical, they were more purposeful about what they were doing and it took us probably a quarter and a half to respond, and by that time it’s too late. You’re down 33-14 on the road in the finals, you’re not going to win many games with that kind of deficit.” Golden State shot 54.3 percent from the field and won the rebounding battle 52-47 in a 110-77 Game 2 win but slumped to 42.1 percent from the field while getting crushed 60-41 on the glass in Game 3.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (70-29, 47-49-3 ATS, 49-50 O/U): Cleveland was in desperation mode going into Game 3 and realizes that it needs to maintain that sense of urgency on Friday. “It's the same,” James told reporters. “It's the same mindset. We can't afford to go down 3-1 and go into their building and give them confidence going back. So it's a do-or-die game for us still.” The Cavaliers got a big boost in Game 3 from point guard Kyrie Irving, who outscored (30-29), collected more assists (eight to four) and committed far fewer turnovers (eight to two) than the Warriors’ “Splash Brothers” combination of Curry and Klay Thompson.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NBA Championship games.
* Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Over is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
* Warriors are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Early Consensus data is showing 59 percent of the public is siding with the Cavaliers as home favorites in Game 4. As for the total, Over is grabbing 68 percent of the action.