Cnotes National Basketball League Apri's Picks/Trends/News Thru the Playoffs !!

[CNOTES]

NBA

Thursday, June 16

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NBA Finals Game 6 betting preview and odds: Warriors at Cavaliers
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The Cavaliers haven't lost back-to-back home games this season. If they do in Game 6 their season is over.

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.5, 207.5)

Warriors lead series 3-2

The Cleveland Cavaliers needed historic performances from Kyrie Irving and LeBron James to stay alive in the NBA Finals, and the two stars delivered. James and Irving will try to follow up their incredible efforts when Draymond Green returns to the lineup and the Golden State Warriors visit the Cavaliers with another chance to close out the series in Game 6 on Thursday.

Green was hit with a one-game suspension after the NBA deemed his hit to James’ groin in Game 4 a flagrant foul, and the Warriors defense was noticeably less cohesive without its leader. “I thought our defensive communication was lacking,” Golden State coach Steve Ker told reporters. “We had some plays where we didn’t pick up in transition and we had some cross matches that we didn’t identify and they got free, especially Kyrie, and made a lot of shots in transition where we just weren’t there.” James and Irving became the first pair of teammates in NBA Finals history to score at least 40 points in the same game when they both finished with 41 in Game 5, and Irving went 9-of-14 from the field in the second half as Cleveland pulled away. "You've got a guy like this who is very special," James told reporters of Irving. "It's probably one of the greatest performances I've ever seen live."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as slight 2-point home favorites and were quickly bet to -2.5 and have been at that number ever since. The total has yet to move off the opening number 207.5. Check out the complete line history for Game 6 here.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State’s defense took a second hit in addition to the loss of Green when anchor Andrew Bogut went down early in the third quarter of Game 5 with a knee injury. Bogut did not return to the game and underwent an MRI exam that revealed bone bruises that will force him out for the rest of the Finals but will not require surgery. The Warriors could make up for the loss with a little help on the offensive end from MVP Steph Curry, who went 8-of-21 from the field on Monday and is averaging 22.2 points on 42.4 percent shooting in the series – down from a league-best 30.1 points on 50.4 percent in the regular season.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Cleveland is trying to become the first team ever to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals and needs another blistering effort from Irving and James, who combined to account for 97 of the team’s 112 points in Game 5 including assists to other teammates. "Same thing,” Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters of the plan for Game 6 at home. “Continue to be aggressive, continue to bring physicality and continue to attack.” Cleveland got forward Kevin Love back from a concussion in Game 5 but the former All-Star was limited to two points on 1-of-5 shooting in 33 minutes.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland.
* Warriors are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Warriors last nine versus Eastern Conference opponents.
* Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six games following a ATS win.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are giving the slight edge to the Warriors with 53 percent of wagers taking the +2.5 and Golden State. As for the total, 58 percent of bettors are on the over.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, June 16


Golden State @ Cleveland

Game 511-512
June 16, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
135.797
Cleveland
131.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 4
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2
207 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 16

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GOLDEN STATE (88 - 16) at CLEVELAND (71 - 30) - 6/16/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-43 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 65-45 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 46-33 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-8 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-6 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, June 16

Cleveland-Golden State (GSt 3-2)
Green is back for this game, which makes Warriors better on defense; Golden State is 4-5 on road in playoffs, with four of those five losses coming in Game 3's. Cleveland's loss in Game 4 was their first loss in eight home games in playoffs. Five of last seven Golden State games, four of last six Cavalier games stayed under the total. Warriors are 8-2 in last 10 games with Cleveland (under 6-3-1).

In the playoffs this spring, under is 50-32-1

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1
Final: Favorites: 3-2, Over: 2-3




NBA

Thursday, June 16

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. CLEVELAND
Golden State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland
Golden State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Golden State
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State

 

[CNOTES]

NBA ATS


NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE@ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE against the spread in All games after a non-conference game
The record is 23 Wins and 9 Losses for the this season (+13.1 units)


NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE@ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE against the spread in All games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 28 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (+15.9 units)


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NBA MONEYLINE


NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE@ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 30 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+23.15 units)


NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE@ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games off a upset loss as a favorite
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+9.7 units)


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NBA FIRST HALF


NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE@ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Play AGAINST GOLDEN STATE ?>in the first halfin Road games in all playoff games
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the this season (-9.9 units)


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NBA TOP POWERLINE


NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE @ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Line: CLEVELAND-2 BTB PowerLine: CLEVELAND-6
Edge On: CLEVELAND (4)

 

[CNOTES]

Curry says he's poised for Game 6
June 16, 2016


CLEVELAND (AP) Stephen Curry has had his shoulder wrapped in this series, been questioned about his level of fatigue, even had his choice of footwear shredded on Twitter.


It hasn't been the easiest time for the MVP.


He could get the most perfect of endings anyway.


Golden State's point guard - the two-time reigning MVP who had the most prolific 3-point season in league history by a ridiculously wide margin on his way to a scoring title - has had probably more moments of struggle than many expected in these NBA Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Still, his Warriors are on the cusp of back-to-back titles and could hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy again with a win in Game 6 on Thursday night.


''Definitely the biggest game,'' Curry said. ''And I'm ready for it.''


The Warriors can only hope he's right.


Golden State leads the series 3-2 and can win the title on Cleveland's home floor for the second straight year - which would probably be plenty sweet for Curry, who was born in nearby Akron, Ohio (as was Cavs' star LeBron James). He could join a very select club of players who won MVP awards and NBA titles in consecutive seasons, the others on that list being James, Michael Jordan and Bill Russell.


Not bad.


But to get there, Curry and the Warriors still need one more win - and a big night from their best scorer would go a long way toward making that a reality. Even with Draymond Green suspended for Game 5 because of too many flagrant fouls, Golden State still felt it had a chance to close the series out at home on Monday night but succumbed to 41-point barrages from James and Kyrie Irving.


''I don't want to be a prisoner of the moment and say Game 5 was a direct reflection of who we are as a team and who I am as an individual, as a player, as a leader,'' Curry said. ''I was out there doing what I was trying to do to help our team win and it didn't work. So that happens in sports. It happens in our game, and nothing's going to stop me from coming back and doing what I do to help lead my team in Game 6.''


Curry isn't exactly looking for a breakout game - he already had a 38-point effort in Game 4, when the Warriors won in Cleveland and grabbed a 3-1 series lead.


But the Cavs have not made this simple.


They've held Curry under 50 percent shooting in four of the five games so far, kept him under 20 points in three of them and have essentially forced him into one turnover for every assist (23 assists, 22 turnovers). Everyone knows that the Warriors' attack is fueled by Curry and Klay Thompson, and Cleveland has frustrated both at times.


''We want to continue to not turn the ball over and stop those guys, Steph and Klay, from just having one of these barrages from the perimeter,'' James said. ''We also want to try to put pressure on those other guys. Those other guys can beat you as well.''


The Warriors reviewed the Game 5 film on Wednesday morning, and Curry didn't like a lot of what he saw.


It wasn't his 8-for-21 shooting, 5 for 14 from 3-point land, that made him cringe. Instead, he noticed tons of slippage in areas where Golden State usually excels, and he knows that if those areas get cleaned up for Game 6, the Warriors could cap a year that already includes an NBA-record 73 regular-season wins with the title they need to make this run truly historic.


''I don't really worry about the shots that I missed,'' Curry said. ''Those are ones you live with. ... The stuff that kind of bothered me the most is on the offensive end there were certain possessions where we had the right reads and right looks, but passes got deflected because they were a little lazy or we didn't have a crispness to what we were doing. That was a situation where you felt like you had missed opportunities.''


Game 6 is another opportunity.


He believes he won't miss this one.


''Yeah, I want to honestly play better and more consistent,'' Curry said. ''But the situation is right now we're one game away from winning a second championship, and I personally have 48 minutes to do what I need to do to help my team win.''

 

[CNOTES]

LeBron, Cavs pushing for Game 7
June 15, 2016


CLEVELAND (AP) LeBron James has watched ''The Godfather'' trilogy over and over during these playoffs. The Oscar-winning films about crime, family, honor - and revenge - soothe and motivate him. He can't get enough.


But while he's not tired of the classic films, there's a final scene in the NBA Finals he has witnessed too many times, and if he can avoid it again Thursday night, there will be an offer he and the Cleveland Cavaliers can't refuse.


''Two of the best words ever,'' James said, ''Game 7.''


On the strength of a historic performance by James and Kyrie Irving in Game 5, the Cavs saved their season and are home with a second chance to even this unpredictable series against the defending champion Golden State Warriors, who will have forward Draymond Green back from his one-game suspension for bad behavior.


James has been in this spot before.


So have the Warriors.


It was on June 16 last year when they closed out a short-handed Cavaliers squad in six games to win their first title since 1975. The Warriors, their families and friends partied into the early morning hours in Quicken Loans Arena, spraying champagne around their small locker room and adding another close-but-no-title entry to Cleveland's 52-year-old list of sports misery.


The Cavs, who are trying to become the first team in history to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the finals, can't bear the thought of Stephen Curry and Co. doing it to them a second time.


''No matter where it gets done, stopping them is the point,'' J.R. Smith said. ''If they win it here, it's going to hurt. If they get it there, it's going to hurt.''


To avoid any pain whatsoever, and pack this series up for a third trip to Northern California, the Cavs can't count on James and Irving to duplicate their effort in Game 5, when they scored 41 points apiece and had a hand in 97 as Cleveland won 112-97. It would help if they got something from Kevin Love, who scored just 2 points in the close-out game and added only three rebounds in 33 minutes.


Love's first finals - he missed last year's with a shoulder injury - have gone poorly. He missed Game 3 with a concussion, and his ineffectiveness in this series is driving discussion about the Cavs moving him this summer.


Following Wednesday's practice, Love spent several minutes sitting on the scorer's table and chatting with Cavs coach Tyronn Lue, who must weigh whether to stick with the struggling forward or start Richard Jefferson, who gave Cleveland a huge spark in its Game 3 win.


Whatever Lue decides, James knows how Love can help.


''Just need him to be aggressive,'' he said. ''From the defensive side of the floor and the offensive side of the floor, go out and make an impact on the game, no matter if he's not scoring, no matter if at times he feels like he's not getting touches. We all just need to continue to be aggressive. He needs to be aggressive to help us try to send this game back to Golden State.


''I think he's looking forward to the challenge. I think he's looking forward to the moment. We definitely need him. He's too big of a piece to our puzzle.''


Although the Cavs face an unnerving task trying to unseat the Warriors by beating them three times in a row, James is no stranger to the challenge.


In the 2013 finals, he twice helped Miami stave off elimination against San Antonio before the Heat beat the Spurs in seven games. James, who is 2-4 in the finals, has saved his best performances for close-out games, averaging 32.4 points, 11 rebounds and 6.6 assists in 15 of them. His teams are 8-7.


While others wilt in do-or-die games, James thrives.


''I've just been fortunate enough to make some shots, for one,'' he said, explaining his calm under pressure. ''Grab some rebounds, find some teammates. Guys put the ball in my face and get some blocks, and guys throw some errant passes and I'm able to get some steals. It's that simple. It's not easy, but it's that simple. I know what happens in elimination games. I understand the magnitude of it, but it doesn't bother me too much.


''I know how true I am to the game. So I'm able to try to just bottle that and live with the results. It's not always been great, but I guess the last few elimination games it's been pretty good, and hopefully I can continue that tomorrow.''


If he does, there's a long flight to Oakland awaiting him.


Plenty of time to watch his favorite movie again, too.

 

[CNOTES]

Green vows to be better in Game 6
June 15, 2016


CLEVELAND (AP) For all the criticism of Golden State's Draymond Green and his penchant for committing flagrant fouls during these playoffs, Wednesday may have brought the harshest words yet.


The critic: Green himself.


Saying he let the Warriors down and that he was a ''terrible teammate,'' Green spoke on how it pained him to be suspended for Game 5 of the NBA Finals - and how he will make amends Thursday night in Game 6, when the Warriors visit the Cleveland Cavaliers and get a second shot at winning what would be their second straight championship.


''I owe to my teammates to come back and give all that I have, all that I can do to better this situation,'' Green said. ''I have strong belief that if I play Game 5, we win. But I didn't because I put myself in a situation where I wasn't able to play.''


Golden State leads the series 3-2, but now knows it will play the rest of the series without starting center Andrew Bogut because of a left knee injury. Green - who missed Game 5 because of how many flagrants he has accrued during the playoffs - will be called upon to play some center in Game 6, as he has plenty of times in this postseason already.


''Draymond is the spirit of what we do,'' said Warriors guard Stephen Curry, the NBA's two-time reigning MVP. ''You see it out on the floor.''


This series is back in Cleveland largely because LeBron James and Kyrie Irving could not be stopped in Game 5, when the Warriors' best defender was watching the Cavaliers' star duo score 41 points apiece from a suite at the adjacent baseball stadium that the Oakland Athletics call home. Green alone could not have stopped their onslaught, but it surely stands to reason that life would have been more difficult for Cleveland if he was in uniform.


With Green watching, the A's won by nine.


Without Green playing, the Warriors lost by 15. He's already spoken to his teammates about his mistakes, and made clear that watching Game 5 from next door left him hurting.


''Everybody's helped with Draymond being on the floor,'' Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. ''So that will be nice to have him back. We missed him the other night. We were disappointed in our performance without him. We thought we could still get it done, but we didn't. So now it's time to recharge the batteries and get ready.''


The straw that got Green suspended was when he took a swipe at James' groin area in Game 4. But when asked what he expected when he sees Green in Game 6, James showed he's only focused on bigger pictures and no mano-a-mano battle.


''My only job is to get this win, man,'' James said.


Green met with reporters for about 11 minutes before practice, and didn't shy away from his mistakes in these playoffs. Some thought he merited a suspension when he kicked Oklahoma City's Steven Adams in the groin area during the Western Conference finals. The NBA upgraded the foul and fined him after reviewing that play, and when another flagrant was assessed after-the-fact for taking the shot at James a suspension was automatic.


''I move on from the suspension. We move on. It was Game 5. We're here in Game 6,'' Green said. ''So it's behind us. We've got an opportunity to do something that, I don't know if it's ever been done ... where you win a championship on someone else's floor two years in a row.''


Teams have won at home in consecutive years, but to do it in the same road locale has only happened once before - the Boston Celtics celebrated on the Los Angeles Lakers' home floor in back-to-back years, 1968 and 1969.


Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue was asked if his team might try to prod Green a bit, knowing another flagrant foul or two technicals in Game 6 would mean another suspension for Game 7.


''You just play the game,'' Lue said.


Green, who acknowledged that he's been working on keeping emotions in check, didn't sound worried.


''I think I've got to come out and play my game regardless,'' Green said. ''But there are those little fine lines where you just know you can't cross them.''


If Cleveland wins, Game 7 is in Oakland, California on Sunday.


If Cleveland loses, the Warriors will celebrate on the Cavs' home floor for the second consecutive year - exactly one year to the day from last year's clincher. And if Golden State gets to spray champagne the cramped visiting locker room at Quicken Loans Arena around again, those bubbles will likely wash away most of not all the sting Green is feeling for letting his team down.


''Nobody will remember this down the road if we get this done tomorrow night,'' Curry said. ''So that's really all we need to talk about.''

 

[CNOTES]

Books gear up for Game 6
June 14, 2016


NBA Finals bettors have a lot to think about before wagering on Thursday's Game 6 at the Quicken Loans Center where do-or-die Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite over Golden State at most Las Vegas sports books.

Can the Cavs duplicate the insanely efficient Game 6 performance where they won 112-97 to cut the Warriors lead to 3-2. Or do the Warriors step up with Draymond Green back in the lineup and win a Game 6 and an NBA Championship at Cleveland for the second consecutive year?


In Monday's game the Cavs played to the high level most saw when they began the playoffs on a 10-0 run. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both scored 41-points in the runaway win becoming the only duo in NBA Finals to score more than 40 in a game.


They didn't seem to miss -- especially early on -- combining to make 33 of 54 shots while letting Kevin Love shoot only five times (2 pts in 33 mins). James and also chipped in with 18 boards and seven assists in a game he was obviously charged up for.

So what are bettors on the strip saying?


MGM Resorts sports book hub director Jeff Stoneback already heard people talking when he came into work Tuesday morning. "A regular bettor with us came up to me this morning saying 'I don't know who to play for the next game."

There's a feeling that nobody can beat the Cavs if Kyrie and LeBron do what they did in Game 5, but the same can be said for Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry. Which duo does the best? And does momentum carry over into Cleveland with a city that will be going absolutely wild as they hope to win its first pro sports championship since 1964. "We're still alive, we believe".


After the home team won and covered the first three games, the last two have been won by the road underdogs. Stoneback said bettors were on the Cavs in Game 6 and they were even taking +5.5 when there were +6 and +6.5s available around town. He said they were a small loser after getting late Warriors money to help balance the risk.

An area where the MGM books aren't balanced is the series price.

"We had lots of people playing the Cavs adjusted series price taking 10-to-1 prior to Game 5," said Stoneback.


"It's a big loss for us; we had over $100,000 worth of liability on it with Monday's action alone."

Because of that risk Stoneback wanted to at least re-open the adjusted price Tuesday morning lower than the market to attract a little more Warriors money.


The Westgate SuperBook had been at Warriors -500/+400 and dropped to -450/+375 Tuesday morning and the Wynn was at -425/+325.


Stoneback re-opened the price at his 10 MGM books along the strip at -420/+340, saying "we can't open it any higher."

The MGM staff will monitor the series price with the goal of not wanting any more Cavs action and attempt to attract Warriors money to balance things out.


Look for them to stay lower throughout the next few days and it's the place to wager at if believing the Warriors will close this thing out within the next two games. Green, who was suspended for Game 5, could be just the boost Golden State needs.

Since posted Game 6 with the Cavs at home being -2 and 207.5 at, Stoneback said he's "seen very little action, like only a couple thousand."

 

[CNOTES]

Cavs face must-win Game 6
June 16, 2016




GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (88-16) at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (71-30)


NBA Finals, Game 6
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -2.5, Total: 207.5


The Cavaliers will be hoping to force a Game 7 when they host the Warriors in Game 6 on Thursday.


Cleveland seemed like it was heading towards a Game 5 loss in this series, but PF Draymond Green was suspended and the Cavaliers took advantage of it. With no Green, the Warriors were vulnerable defensively and Cleveland was able to win Game 5 112-97 as a 5.5-point underdog at Oracle Arena.


The Cavaliers shot 53.0% from the floor in the game and they also held the Warriors to just 36.4% shooting. They’ll be hoping they can keep that up when they host Golden State on Thursday, but Green will be back in the lineup for this contest.


C Andrew Bogut (Knee), however, is out for the remainder of the series for Golden State, so not all is well for the Warriors.


One trend that does favor the team is that Golden State is 23-8 ATS when revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points over the past two seasons.


The Warriors are also 14-4 ATS after having lost two of their past three games over the past two seasons.


The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are an impressive 20-9 ATS when playing only their second game in five days. They also happen to be completely healthy coming into this pivotal Game 6.


The Warriors had complete control of this series after winning Game 4 in Cleveland, but they were dealt a huge blow with PF Draymond Green (15.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.9 BPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) being suspended in Game 5. Green is the best defender that Golden State has and he is the guy that makes their small-ball lineup so dangerous.


The Warriors lost without him in Game 5, but he’ll be back to give them another shot at winning the championship on Thursday. Green will be well rested coming into the game and he’ll surely play with a ton of passion in this one. It is, however, important that he stays out of foul trouble. With Bogut out, Green will be the guy that plays most of the Warriors’ minutes at center and the team can’t afford to lose him anymore.


The play of PG Stephen Curry (25.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) will also come a long way in determining the outcome of this game. Curry has been miserable in the Finals, shooting just 42.4% from the floor and averaging 4.4 turnovers per game. Golden State needs the MVP to start knocking down shots at a higher clip, but he also needs to take much better care of the ball on Thursday.


One guy that has been doing his job has been SG Klay Thompson (24.7 PPG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs). Thompson did everything he could to keep Golden State in Game 5, pouring in 37 points in 41 minutes of action. He’s been knocking down threes consistently and will need to continue to play his solid brand of two-way basketball on Thursday.


The Cavaliers are coming off of a gutsy victory over the Warriors in Game 5 of the Finals and the reason Cleveland was able to win was because of heroic performances from both SF LeBron James (25.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 7.3 APG, 2.3 APG, 1.1 BPG in playoffs) and PG Kyrie Irving (25.3 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs).


James had 41 points, 16 rebounds, seven assists, three blocks and three steals in 43 minutes of action in Game 5. He was an impressive 16-for-30 from the field in that one, but Irving might have been even better.


The young guard poured in 41 points on 17-for-24 shooting from the field in that game and also dished out six assists and had two steals. If Irving can continue to outplay Stephen Curry in this series then it’s extremely possible that the Cavaliers will end up completing the comeback to win this series.


The team will, however, need PF Kevin Love (15.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG in playoffs) to play a bit better on Thursday. He had just two points in 33 minutes of action on Monday and he is capable of playing a lot better than that.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA Finals Game 6 Preview
June 16, 2016



NBA Finals - Game 6 - Warriors lead 3-2


Golden State at Cleveland (-2/207.5), 9:00 p.m. ET - ABC


The NBA Finals are back in Cleveland. Considering where things stood last time they were in town last Friday night, that’s a mild upset, but don’t believe for a second the Cavs are playing with house money.


No, there’s genuine pressure. Not only are they two-point favorites to get the series back to Oakland for a Game 7, but a loss would mean that the Warriors would be celebrating another title one year to the date of last year’s conquest.


A loss would not only make LeBron James 0-for-3 in NBA Finals with his hometown team, but it would also mean that all three times, the visitors celebrated winning the title in a city that hasn’t claimed one of their own in any major sport since 1964. That’s cold, but very Cleveland-like.


Worse yet, Stephen Curry would claim a second straight title in a year where he was named regular-season MVP, dancing and partying it up at LeBron’s house while joining him, Michael Jordan and Bill Russell as the only players in league history to accomplish that feat in consecutive seasons.


James and Kyrie Irving come in after carving out their own piece of history, becoming the first teammates to each top the 40-point mark in the NBA’s championship round. They combined to shoot 33-for-54 (61 pct) against the Draymond Green-less Warriors, doing so while helping the Cavs buckle down defensively in allowing just 13 fourth-quarter points in the 112-97 win.


“They’re special players. They’re capable of having special nights,” said Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue. “We know that, we’ve seen it before. If they didn’t have it going then we’d have run other things to get other guys involved, but with those two guys having a special night, we rode them and they came through for us.”


Although returning home should help them maintain a rhythm, Green’s return from suspension means the Warriors will have their defensive driving force back in the fold. Without his presence helping Andre Iguodala guard James and communicating on switches, the Warriors were unable to get the stops they needed to maintain a rhythm at both ends. Head coach Steve Kerr made no secret of his disappointment with how Golden State responded without him in Game 5, but conceded everyone is obviously better with Green on the floor.


Green felt he let teammates down regardless of whether he agreed with the decision, calling it “awful” that he missed the game and referring to himself as a “terrible teammate” for putting his guys in that situation.


“I owe it to my teammates to come back and give all that I have, all that I can do to better the situation,” Green said. “I have a strong belief that if I played Game 5 we win, but I didn’t because I put myself in a situation where I wasn’t able to play.”


Curry’s rough shooting night (8-for-21) compounded the issue, as did Harrison Barnes finishing 2-for-14 while playing 38 minutes, the most he’s played all series due to Green’s absence. Losing Andrew Bogut to a knee injury after just eight minutes of action didn’t help matters, throwing Kerr’s rotations further out of whack. Little went right for Golden State, spoiling what Curry felt would’ve been a dream ending where cameras would’ve memorably followed Green as he ran over from the Oakland Coliseum to celebrate a championship. Instead, the Warriors’ emotional leader will have to try and make up for the missed opportunity while reining in his temper since there would be dire circumstances if he’s whistled for another flagrant foul or two technicals.


“He knows that if he gets another flagrant he misses Game 7. He’s well aware of that so I’d be shocked if anything happened on that front,” said Kerr. “He feels bad enough as it is about missing Game 5. He’s not going to put himself at risk of missing another game.”


It’s imperative that he remains on the floor since Bogut has been ruled out for the next 6-to-8 weeks with a left knee sprain. It remains to be seen how Kerr chooses to start the game without his center, staying close to status quo by bumping up Festus Ezeli or going small right from the jump by leaving Iguodala in the starting lineup and putting Green as his primary big.


Whether they see it right from the onset or not, the Cavs are prepared to see Green at center when it matters most.


“Their money lineup is going small with Green at the five,” said Lue, “so there’s not really a big difference in preparing for that.


Although that lineup isn’t necessarily a lock to produce a fast pace since it’s among their top defensive group, the Warriors are 1-4 this postseason when held under 100 points, so they won’t shy away if the Cavs opt to get up and down on their home floor.


Depending on when and where you bet the total in Game 5, you could’ve won, lost or pushed. Most betting shops closed at 209 and that’s exactly where the score finished. The ‘over’ was definitely the right side since the score was knotted 61-61 at halftime, but 32 combined fourth-quarter points turned some expected winning tickets into losers.


Game 6 opened at 207 ½ and that number has held steady as of Wednesday, climbing to 208 at some spots. VegasInsider.com NBA Totals expert Chris David weighs in on Thursday’s matchup with his quick handicap.


“The Draymond Green effect not only played a factor defensively in Game 5 but his absence really screwed up Golden State offensively as they settled for too many jumpers. The Warriors took a series-high 42 attempts from 3-point land in Game 5 and only made 14 of them. As a team, Golden State shot 36 percent from the field and only scored 13 in the final quarter yet they still finished with 97 points,” said David. “Holding the Warriors under 100 points in a game doesn’t happen often. Including Game 5, the feat has only been accomplished 12 times this season.


“Looking back at the 11 situations, Golden State rebounded with an average score 118.4 points per game. In this year’s playoffs, the Warriors were held under the century mark three times and they posted 120, 104 and 108 in the next game, all victories as well. In case you’re wondering, Golden State has gone 11-0 straight up and 9-2 against the spread after being held under 100 and the ‘over’ went 7-4 in those games. It’s hard to go against these seasonal trends and I’m going to buy Golden State’s team total ‘over’ 102 ½ in Game 6. I would lean to the game total going ‘over’ as well with the series wrapping up.”


The Cavs will likely do everything in their power to avoid getting bogged down, since they’re 0-3 in the series when failing to top the century mark. They’re 8-0 at home this postseason when topping 100 points and lost Game 4 108-97 the only time they didn’t.


On that note, Golden State has made an NBA-record 276 3-pointers during these playoffs, while Cleveland has made 242, now good for second all-time. This may very well be a situation where the team that strokes it best from beyond the arc survives. Normally you wouldn’t want to challenge the Warriors at their own game, but the Cavs have seen role players Kevin Love, J.R. Smith and Channing Frye find the range at home enough to trust they’ll hold their own.


Live by the 3, die by 3. Wish there was a total set on how many times you might here that old adage uttered on Thursday night because the over would be a lock.


The Cavs are looking to become the third team among the last 33 to have fallen behind 3-1 in an NBA Finals to force a Game 7. The 1951 Knicks and ’66 Lakers managed to force a deciding game. It hasn’t been done in 50 years. No NBA team has ever rallied to win it all after backing themselves into that corner.

 

[CNOTES]

Game 6 Props - Best Bets
June 15, 2016


Chris David: 8-3 (+1405)
Tony Mejia: 10-5 (+1080)
Kevin Rogers: 8-6 (+20)


Based on a five-unit bankroll, their top props are listed for Game 6 below.


Odds & Props provided by Sportsbook.ag


Chris David


2 Units – Over Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 17 ½ (-115)


Harrison Barnes is a tough player to figure out and he’s been very inconsistent in this year’s playoffs but for whatever reason, he’s produced better numbers on the road versus Cleveland. In the first two road battles versus the Cavaliers, he combined for 29 points, rebounds and assists in Game 3 and a total of 24 in Game 4. He’s coming off his second worst shooting performance (2-of-14) of the playoffs in Game 5 and I believe he bounces back in this spot. For what it’s worth, Barnes averaged 15.3 PPG in the regular season in games played on Thursday, which was the highest daily average.


2 Units – Under Kevin Love Total Points+Rebounds 17 ½ (-105)


After putting up 17 points and 13 boards in the opener of this series, Kevin Love has fallen off the map due to the concussion injury and more importantly the matchup against Golden State. Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue knows he’s a liability defensively and his minutes have been limited, more now with the Warriors likely going even smaller with no Bogut. If the game gets out of hand, Love will be subbed out and could be watching his final game in Cleveland from the bench.

1 Unit – Richard Jefferson will make a 3-Point Field Goal (+180)


In the 14 playoff games that Jefferson has attempted a 3-point shot, he’s made at least one in nine of those games. Since my above prop is leaning to Love being replaced by Jefferson, I’m going to double-up and hope RJ hoists at least one or two from 3-point land. He’s shooting 41 percent from the playoffs and that’s a solid number to back, especially with a return close to 2/1 odds.


Kevin Rogers


2 Units - Under Draymond Green Total Points 15 (-115)


Green returns from his suspension, but struggled in both games at Quicken Loans Arena. In the two road games at Cleveland, Green scored a total of 15 points, while failing to hit a three-pointer in eight attempts. Green will make more of an impact defensively on James and should grab double-digit rebounds, but not score more than 15 points.

2 Units - Over Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 17 ½ (-115)


For as bad as Green has been in Cleveland in this series, Barnes has been the opposite. The former UNC standout stunk in Game 5 by shooting 2-of-14 from the floor for 5 points, but averaged 16 points per game in two games at the Q. Barnes pulled down eight rebounds in each of those games, as he should have a nice bounce-back in Game 6.


1 Unit - Over Kyrie Irving Total Made Free Throws 3 ½ (-125)


Irving blew up for 41 points in Game 5, while attempting at least 24 shots in each of the last three games. After attempting 12 free throws in Game 1, Irving has been to the line only 10 times in the last four games. However, Irving is going to get plenty of opportunities to score and is an excellent free throw shooter, so if he can attack the basket in Game 6, the 'over' should cash.


Tony Mejia


2 Units – Over LeBron James Rebounds+Assists 19 ½ (-115)


After a dominant Game 5 on the glass in which he grabbed 16 boards, James isn't likely to surpass that number, but should break into double-digits in assists, surpassing his series average and likely notching a triple-double, win or lose.


1.5 Units – Over Stephen Curry Points 28 (-115)


After a brutal Game 3 where he wasn't mentally ready at the onset, Curry played his best, quieting critics as well as the Cleveland crowd. Expect him to at least match his regular-season average of 30 points here.


1.5 Units – Over Andre Iguodala Rebounds+Assists 10 ½ (-115)


Even with Draymond Green back, the Warriors should get plenty out of Andre Iguodala, who had 11 boards and six dimes in Game 5 and will again be involved in all facets off the bench.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, JUNE 16


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


GS at CLE 09:00 PM


CLE -2.0


U 207.0

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack


-- James Shields has now allowed 31 runs in 11 IP in his last four starts.


-- 10 Cincinnati Reds have made their major league debut this year.


-- Patricia Ford was named Miss Georgia; she is a former Weather Channel intern.


-- Mets are 5-17 this season when they do not hit a home run.


-- Stuart Appleby's golf bag weighed in at 36.35 pounds; caddying is tough.


-- Miami Marlins have had five no-hitters, but never had a guy hit for the cycle.


**********


Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there

13) First of all, Happy Father's Day to all the dads reading this; I was lucky to have a great dad. He passed away last year and I miss him very much, so if your dad is still alive, give him a hug and tell him you love him.


12) Get well soon to Michael Lee Aday, aka Meat Loaf; the 68-year old singer collapsed during a show in Edmonton this week. He was released from the hospital and is said to be in good condition now, which is very good news.


11) I'm watching NFL Network the other day and a guy is trying to make a big deal out of the fact that the Rams haven't named Jared Goff the #1 QB yet. Oy. It is really hard to be an NFL quarterback; rushing someone into starting can be very stupid.


10) Here are the Rams' first four games:
@ 49ers, Seahawks, @ Buccaneers, @ Cardinals.


Three road games, three division games. I'm a big fan of easing a guy into being the QB of the future, especially with the Cal offense being lot different than an NFL offense.


9) Kurt Warner started nine games for '04 Giants, before prize rookie Eli Manning took over. Giants went 1-7 in Manning starts, scoring 37 points in his first four starts; he was 6-21 in one start, 4-18 in another. Eli has turned out pretty well, but make no mistake about it, he was terrible in his rookie season.


Steve McNair started six games his first two years with Tennessee; he turned out to be a pretty good QB, too. Goff will be fine, but it will take time.


8) Brewers-Dodgers game last night was only second game in majors this year where both teams scored in each of the first three innings of the game. Red Sox-Orioles game on June 1 was the first game like that this season.


7) Wally Szczerbiak, who is a pretty good basketball analyst these days, predicted that there might not be anyone in this draft class who becomes an NBA All-Star.


6) Then there are mock drafts, which are fine if you do one; but once you start having new ones every other day, then you're just screwing around trying to get page views. Anyone can shuffle the top 15 names around; lets stick to one mock per analyst.


5) There was something on Twitter about the Warriors flying home after Game 6 and three of their guys are doing homework from online classes, trying to earn their college degrees. Pretty cool that really rich guys still want their degree.


4) One of the highlights this weekend was in San Diego, wehre they showed a guy playing ping pong outdoors, while wearing stilts. Don't see that every day.


3) If you owned one of the top five picks in the NBA Draft, would you trade it to the Lakers for D'Angelo Russell, after Russell's display of immaturity last year? I'd have to say no; you can't make mistakes when you have a top five pick.


2) Clipper coach Doc Rivers has quietly dumped two of his assistant coaches already; when you spend a ton of money on a team and it underachieves, heads will roll.


1) A person paid $99,000 for two tickets to tonight's Game 7 in Oakland. Wow.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Sunday, June 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA Finals Game 7 betting preview and odds: Cavaliers at Warriors
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LeBron and the Cavs opened as 5-point dogs for Game 7. If they can win SU they'll be the first team in history to come back down 3-1.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-5, 207)

Series tied 3-3

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one victory away from ending the city's 52-year sports championship drought when they visit the defending champion Golden State Warriors in Sunday's Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Cleveland is also looking to become the first team in NBA Finals history to recover from a 3-1 series deficit while Golden State strives to bounce back from two disappointing closeout failures, including an embarrassing performance in Game 6 in which two-time MVP Stephen Curry was ejected after throwing his mouthpiece and hitting a fan.

Cleveland's last sports title was won by the 1964 Browns - before the NFL's Super Bowl era - and forward LeBron James is doing his part to back up his vow to bring a championship to the city with back-to-back 41-point performances. The Warriors opened the door for the Cavaliers in Game 5 when stellar defensive forward Draymond Green served a suspension and the Game 6 meltdown marked a frustrating night for the Curry family as wife Ayesha accused the NBA Finals of being "absolutely rigged for money" before sinking into full retreat mode and deleting her social-media comments. Stephen Curry said Saturday that "if we come up short, we'll all be very, very disappointed," in regards to two opportunities already having been squandered while Cavaliers forward LeBron James is feeling confidence now that his squad has turned the series into a one-game winner-take-all. "You don't put too much more added pressure on it because it's a Game 7," James said at Saturday's press conference. "One thing we all know is it's the last game of the season, so it's not like you're preserving any energy, be out there saying, 'OK, I've got to keep my body ready for the next game.' There's no next game."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 5-point home favorites for this huge Game 7. They were bet down to -4.5 for a short period of time before being quickly bet back to -5. The total open at 206 and has bet up to 207. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: James is averaging 30.2 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists in the series and rose his play to even higher levels with Cleveland facing elimination. Point guard Kyrie Irving also has performed well in the series with three 30-point outings - a high of 41 - while averaging 27.3 points, and he is attempting to put the long-discussed Cleveland championship drought out of his mind. "After the game, we can worry about the rest of that stuff," Irving said at Saturday's press conference. "History will be made either way, regardless of both teams, win or lose. But we're just really focused on what we can control, and (Sunday's) game is just living in the moment."

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State recorded an NBA-best 73-9 record in the regular season but things have been a bit different in the last two playoff series and the Warriors have dropped eight games overall in the postseason. "At the end of the day, we knew this wouldn't be a walk in the park," Green said at Saturday's press conference. "It's hard. It's hard to win a championship. But we've never really been a team to lack confidence. We feel like we can do anything. That's going to always be our mindset." Curry has recovered from a slow start in the series by averaging 31 points over the past three games but Golden State is getting practically nothing from small forward Harrison Barnes, who is averaging 2.5 points on 2-of-22 shooting over the past two games.

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on two days rest.
* Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0-2 in the last six meetings in Golden State.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Warriors last four home games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Cavaliers last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

CONSENSUS: It's close, but the public are giving the defending champs a very slight edge in Game 7, with 53 percent of wagers on the Warriors. When it comes to the total, bettors are hammering the Over, with 73 percent of bettors on it.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, June 19

Cleveland @ Golden State

Game 513-514
June 19, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
132.981
Golden State
129.457
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 3 1/2
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 5
206 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+5); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, June 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (72 - 30) at GOLDEN STATE (88 - 17) - 6/19/2016, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-44 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 53-41 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-22 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 65-46 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-32 ATS (+11.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
CLEVELAND is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-9 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-7 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Short Sheet

Sunday, June 19

Cleveland at Golden State, 8:00 ET
Cleveland: 19-8 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more
Golden State: 11-30 ATS at home after 3 games where they made 42% of shots or worse




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, June 19

Cleveland-Golden State (3-3)
Last road team to win Game 7 on road in Finals was 1978 (Bullets @ Seattle). All six games in NBA Finals were decided by 11+, with home side winning four of the six. Cleveland scored 115-112-120 in its Finals wins, 89-77-97 in its losses- over is 3-0 in its wins, 0-3 in Warrior wins. How healthy are Curry/Iguodala? Golden State is 10-3 at home in playoffs, but only 4-3 in last seven home games. Cavaliers lost four of last six on the road.

In the playoffs this spring, under is 50-33-1

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1
Final: Favorites: 4-2, Over: 3-3




NBA

Sunday, June 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games at home
Golden State is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cleveland

 

[CNOTES]

NBA Finals Game 7 Preview
June 19, 2016




NBA Finals - Game 7 - Series tied 3-3
Cleveland at Golden State (-5/207), 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC


For the first time since 2013, the NBA Finals are going the distance.


Ray Allen’s heroic 3-pointer late in Game 6 spoiled the Spurs championship plans three years ago, forcing a Game 7 that the Heat captured 95-88 to win a second straight title. LeBron James tied Tommy Heinsohn’s NBA record for most points in a Game 7, pouring in 37 while grabbing 12 rebounds.


It’s going to take a similar effort to beat the Warriors in Oakland as the Cavs look to make history by becoming the first team ever to rally from a 3-1 deficit to win an NBA Finals.


It’s only the fourth time in 22 years that the title will come down to a single game and the first time in 50 years that a team has forced a deciding game after falling behind 3-1.


Golden State is hoping to repeat in order to validate its 73-win season, while the Cavs are looking to deliver Cleveland’s first championship of any kind since 1964.


This will be the 19th Game 7 in Finals history, and home teams have gotten the better of the matchups in 15 of 18, winning the last six times. A road team hasn’t won one of these since 1978, when the Washington Bullets beat the Seattle Supersonics, so yes, odds are certainly against the Cavs. Of course, that hasn’t stopped them from believing yet.


There’s not a lot we don’t know about the Cavs, a team that arrives as an underdog because the Eastern Conference is so much easier to navigate than the West. They’ve survived an in-season coaching change and Kevin Love’s obvious lack of cohesion with the rest of the group. They’re on the cusp of a championship.


In that sense, James has willed them like he said he would. Before last year, no player had ever averaged at least 30 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists in a Finals series. He’s on pace to do it for the second consecutive season. Add in his 2.7 steals and 2.2 blocks during this series, and his Finals 2016 production in these five statistical categories is unprecedented, according to the NBA. James has scored 41 points in each of the last two games. Michael Jordan is the only player with as many as three straight 40-point Finals games (he had four in a row in 1993). The only 40-point performances in a Finals Game 7 are from Jerry West (42 in 1969) and Elgin Baylor (41 in 1962).


In a postseason where it was openly debated whether he’d been surpassed as the face of the league by Steph Curry or in terms of production by the likes of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Kawhi Leonard, James has persevered and quieted all that talk. At 31 years old, he’s still the best player in basketball.


Unlike last year, he’s got the three highest-paid players on his roster, Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, and yes, Love, healthy and contributing. And yet, even though Irving has opened eyes, it’s still all on James. He’s the driving force. He’s the key to it all. If the Cavs win, he’ll avoid a gross 2-5 record in NBA Finals and re-enter the conversation as the best to have ever done it, getting halfway to Michael Jordan’s haul of six rings.


LeBron has scored 41 points in consecutive games. Does he have enough in the tank to pull off the unexpected? To become the first team to rally from a 3-1 deficit to win The Finals, Cleveland will have to hand Golden State a third consecutive loss – a streak the Warriors have never suffered in coach Steve Kerr’s two seasons.


The Warriors’ last three-game losing streak was Nov. 20-23, 2013, during the 2013-14 regular season. Golden State went through the entire 2015-16 regular season without losing back-to-back games before dropping Games 3 and 4 of the Western Conference Finals to the Thunder and Games 5 and 6 of The Finals to the Cavaliers. The Warriors are an all-time team. They’ve lost four games out of 53 at home. This next win, if they get it on Sunday, will be their 50th at Oracle Arena this season.


That’s why you can’t throw everything we’ve seen in the regular season out the window. Although we’ve seen throughout these Finals that the Cavs have been able to physically impose their will and ultimately knock a team that won 73 games down a few pegs, consistency is the key. It’s time to find out who is most strong-willed.


With that in mind, take a look at what Marreese Speights, who should play a role in Game 7 since Andrew Bogut is out, said about his MVP teammate.


“On Thursday night in Cleveland, during Game 6 of the NBA Finals, I saw something I’ve never seen before: Steph Curry … furious,” Speights wrote in the Players Tribune. “I mean, I’ve seen him get mad before. But when he got called for that sixth foul, that was, by far, the angriest I’ve ever seen him.


“You know what, though? I’m going to give you all some inside info. After the game, Steph wasn’t upset. He might have said one or two words, but then he got on his phone — he talks with his kids after the game, or his wife — and he moved on.


“And it was the same for the rest of us Steph’s gonna go off on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out and scores 50. With all the things the media has been saying about him, and everything on Twitter, I know he’s going to respond. I know it. And then all the other guys are going to fall into place. That’s how it works for us. Anytime anything happens with Steph — be it emotionally, or him getting hurt in the Houston series, or him getting ejected on Thursday night — that motivates us to take it to another level. So look out on Sunday.”


The Warriors will be facing immense pressure, but have been in must-win games all season due to their run at 73, which could pay dividends here. Keep in mind, the Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award will be presented after Game 7. The award’s namesake is the king of winner-take-all games in championship series: Russell went 5-0 in Finals Game 7s, averaging 20.4 points and 32.0 rebounds. Can Curry, in his own way, be that great?


There’s no question Golden State will need him to be at his best. The reigning two-time MVP has neglected blame so far, but Game 7 revolves around his ability to impose his will on the game and promote a faster pace.


Total bettors watched the ‘over’ connect in Game 6 of the finals on Thursday and that outcome was helped with the pair combining for 65 points in the fourth quarter.


For the finale, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 207 and most betting shops have dropped the number to 206 ½ as of Saturday.


VegasInsider.com NBA totals expert Chris David believes you can handicap Game 7 with two different approaches.


“If you’re leaning to trends both this season and historically, the ‘under’ is an easy look on Sunday. The last four Game 7’s of the NBA Finals have all leaned to the low side and all of the outcomes were extremely tight with teams putting an extra emphasis on possessions. The argument to that angles is this series hasn’t seen a competitive game and that has created a looser style of play which has produced a few ‘over’ tickets,” explained David.


Depending where and when you’ve placed your wagers on the first six games, you could have differing results but most bettors have seen the ‘over/under’ go 3-3 in this series.


Another trend that could have you leaning to the ‘under’ is based on the Warriors’ total tendencies at Oracle Arena. The last two years, Golden State has seen the ‘under’ go 16-5-3 (76%) in the playoffs which includes an 8-4-1 (67%) record this postseason.


“Using angles and systems that have been documented are a part of my handicapping by I’m fully aware that trends aren’t always your friends,” said David. “Current form is a key factor and nobody can ignore what Cleveland has done recently. The Cavaliers have scored 120, 112 and 115 points in their three wins against a club that is known for its great team defense. Including those results, Cleveland is now 15-0 in the playoffs when they score over a 100 points. With Bogut out and Andre Iguodala not playing at 100 percent, the Warriors certainly aren’t the same team defensively.”


“I believe Cleveland will be able to carry over its offensive momentum to the Bay Area and even though Golden State shot poorly (36%, 40%) in the last two games, it still put up 97 and 101 points in those losses. If the Warriors shoot in the forties on Sunday, they’ll easily eclipse 100-plus points and I expect them to do so. In this particular matchup, I’m going to shy away from the Game 7 angles and lean to the ‘over’ (206 ½) in the final.


Iguodala’s back issue is worrisome, but the Warriors anticipate him being effective enough to rely upon for his normal of minutes. How well he feels and plays should be Game 7’s chief x-factor.

 

[CNOTES]

Warriors look to avoid collapse
June 18, 2016



CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (72-30) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (88-17)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -5.0, Total: 207.5

The NBA title will be on the line when the Warriors host the Cavaliers in Game 7 on Sunday.

The Warriors looked like they were heading towards an easy repeat after defeating the Cavaliers in Cleveland in Game 4, but the team has been dominated since that victory. The Cavaliers have now won two straight games in this series and they have done so by a total of 29 points.

Cleveland has been outstanding on both ends of the floor, shooting 53.0% from the floor in Game 5 and 51.9% in Game 6. The Cavaliers also held the Warriors to just 36.4% shooting in Game 5 and 40.2% in Game 6. If Golden State does not find it’s touch offensively then it is almost a certainty that the team will be watching Cleveland celebrate a championship victory on the Oracle Arena hardwood.

One thing favoring the Cavaliers coming into this game is the fact that they are 21-9 ATS when playing only their second game in five days this season. That means that they respond well to rest and get the job done in the postseason.

The Warriors are, however, 12-4 ATS when revenging a loss this season and 23-9 ATS when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points over the past two seasons.

The Cavaliers will be at full strength coming into this game, but the Warriors are not going to have C Andrew Bogut (Knee). SF Andre Iguodala (Back) is also questionable for Golden State and he will likely not be able to play his best basketball even if he does suit up on Sunday.

The Cavaliers could have rolled over and come to peace with the fact that the Warriors were going to hoist their second straight Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy, but they turned things around and now head into Game 7 looking like the better team in this series.

SF LeBron James (26.3 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 7.5 APG, 2.4 SPG, 1.2 BPG in playoffs) has been the reason this team has been able to get back into the series, averaging 41.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 9.0 APG, 3.5 SPG and 3.0 BPG over the past two contests. With Andrew Bogut out for Golden State, James knows that he can attack the rim at will and he has been doing that these past few games. James has also shot 7-for-14 from three over the past two contests. His ability to shoot has made him unguardable in this series and he’ll likely be winning his third NBA title if he can knock down more shots on Sunday.

It’d be huge for James and the Cavaliers for PG Kyrie Irving (25.2 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) to show up in Game 7. Irving scored 30 or more points in Games 2 through 5 and it’d be big if he can do that again on Sunday. His shooting and ability to get to the rim takes a lot of pressure off of his teammates, but he needs to show up in what will be the biggest game of his career.

The Warriors won 73 games in the regular season, but none of that will matter if they do not win on Sunday. If Golden State is going to do that then it’s important that PG Stephen Curry (25.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) keeps his cool and plays smart in this one. Curry fouled out of Game 6 and was also ejected from the arena after throwing his mouthguard into the crowd. The Warriors are not going to be able to win this game if Curry isn’t keeping himself out of foul trouble. He needs to be disciplined on the defensive end and he’ll also need to knock down a ton of shots in this one.

SG Klay Thompson (24.7 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) must also hit his shots in this game. Thompson’s struggles in the first half were one of the main reasons that Golden State fell so far behind in Game 6. He needs to get off to a good start on Sunday or the Warriors may dig themselves too deep of a hole.

The last piece of the Warriors’ puzzle will be PF Draymond Green (14.7 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.9 BPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs). Green was a non-factor in Game 6, finishing with just eight points on 3-for-7 shooting. He also picked up five fouls and that can’t happen again on Sunday. He is the Warriors’ best defender and is now being counted on to protect the rim. Without Green on the floor, Golden State is not the same team that dominated the regular season.

 

[CNOTES]

High stakes for Warriors, Cavs in Game 7
June 19, 2016


OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Stephen Curry knows that the record-setting 73 wins, awards and memorable moments that highlighted Golden State's special season will only be footnotes if the Warriors can't quickly find their missing game.


The 3-pointers have stopped falling, the swagger has gone missing and the defense has had no answers for LeBron James. After two straight losses that have forced a winner-take-all Game 7 in the NBA Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday night, the Warriors are one game away from either capping the most successful season in NBA history or the greatest Finals collapse.


''You just don't see kind of that rhythm and that flow and just the energy that we play with the offensive end,'' Curry said Saturday. ''Obviously, we lost Game 5 and 6, not so much because we missed open shots, but also because of our defensive breakdowns. So it's kind of you can look at and nitpick both sides. But at the end of the day, I don't know why we haven't been ourselves. ... The only thing that matters is we have one game left to figure it out.''


The Warriors couldn't do it in Game 5 at home last Monday when do-everything forward Draymond Green was sidelined by a suspension. A second chance in Cleveland on Thursday night also ended in a loss with rim-protecting center Andrew Bogut out after suffering a season-ending knee injury the previous game and defensive stopper Andre Iguodala dealing with a balky back that limited his effectiveness. Iguodala received treatment Saturday while the Warriors held a light practice but is planning to play Game 7, and coach Steve Kerr expects him to be improved come game time.


Golden State's frustration boiled over with Curry's ejection for throwing his mouthpiece at a fan after fouling out and Kerr's $25,000 fine for criticizing officials. Even Curry's wife, Ayesha, got into it with a Tweet accusing the NBA of rigging the Finals, prompting Curry to quip, ''I might have to cut the Wi-Fi off at my house.''


But it will be no joking matter if the Warriors become the first team to lose the NBA Finals after taking a 3-1 series lead, which is one historical mark these players are looking to avoid in a season full of records led by the 73 wins after a record 24-0 start.


''When you go from up 3-1 to 3-3, it's disappointing,'' Kerr said. ''But you get a couple of days, you kind of take stock. You think about where we are. We like our positioning. We like our chances. And we're at home with a chance to win the championship. You can't ask for much more than that.''


But the Cavaliers come into the game with James. The player known as King James since he was a high-school megastar in Akron, Ohio, has almost single-handedly moved the Cavaliers to the brink of winning the first championship in success-starved Cleveland since the Browns won the NFL title in 1964.


James brought the Cavaliers to the verge of a title with back-to-back 41-point games to stave off elimination and force this decisive final game. He has 24 rebounds, 18 assists, seven 3-pointers, six blocks and just three turnovers in the past two games and leads the series in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.


''I start to learn from my mistakes and break into the film and seeing the ways that they're defending me, the ways they're defending our team, ways I can be a little more efficient,'' James said. ''I've gotten better as the series has gone on.''


After shooting 42 percent the first two games, James has shot 55 percent the past four as he has exploited the Warriors in transition and made the mid-range jumpers Golden State has ceded him.


''He'll continue to be aggressive,'' Warriors forward Harrison Barnes said. ''He's a great player, so he's going to score. We need to take away the easy ones, a lot of them in transition, easy dunks, defensive breakdowns, not let him just get to the rim easy.''


Some of those easy shots have come because of the way the Warriors have shot from long range. After setting a record with 1,077 3-pointers in the regular season, Golden State has shot just 36 percent from long range in the two potential clinchers.


Barnes has missed 10 of 11 3-pointers those games a part of a 2-of-22 shooting performance, while and Curry and fellow Splash Brother Klay Thompson have been hot and cold from distance.


Curry knows that must change Sunday if the Warriors are going to repeat as champions.


''I need to play my best game of the year if not my career because of what the stakes are,'' Curry said. ''So that doesn't mean scoring 50 points, though. That means controlling the tempo of the game. When I need to be aggressive, well, I need to be aggressive. But when I need to push the envelope, do it, but do it under control.''

 

[CNOTES]

Warriors limping, hope home-court helps
June 17, 2016


CLEVELAND (AP) The level of tension is growing rapidly for the Golden State Warriors. Someone gets suspended, someone gets hurt, someone gets ejected, and lots of someones make no effort to hide their frustration. A comfortable two-game lead in the NBA Finals becomes a dicey one-game lead, then no lead at all.


The biggest moment awaits.


The biggest challenge does, too.


Shots aren't falling for the Warriors at the same rate they were in the regular season, stops aren't coming like they were a couple months ago either, the aches and pains are piling up and what looked like a sure-fire title not long ago is at best a shaky proposition now. Game 7 of the finals is on Sunday against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and Golden State is hoping being at home helps deliver a championship-saving elixir.


''Things haven't gone our way despite how the regular season went,'' Warriors guard Stephen Curry said. ''The playoffs haven't been easy. Hasn't been a breeze. Hasn't been anything perfect about it. So, yeah, it's frustrating, but the work we've put in and the opportunity we've given ourselves with a Game 7 to win the finals at home, you've got to be excited about that.''


The Warriors got questions for months - starting around December, believe it or not - about whether they were concerned that the strain of chasing Chicago's 72-win mark that stood as the NBA's gold standard for 20 years would leave them ailing or fatigued at playoff time.


Questions like those seem a bit more valid now.


To be clear, Andrew Bogut's left knee didn't become susceptible to season-ending bone bruises because of how difficult becoming the league's first 73-win regular-season team was; J.R. Smith crashing into him in Game 5 of this series took care of that. Curry's combination of fouling out, mouthpiece-throwing and getting ejected in Game 6 on Thursday night wasn't because the first 82 games left him tired and cranky. And the Warriors' inability to corral LeBron James in this series can be best explained by acknowledging again that when James is at his best he's the most unstoppable force in the game.


The grind of March and April has nothing to do with any of that.


But it can certainly be argued that even though the Warriors spent about half the season without head coach Steve Kerr while he recovered from back surgeries and got every opponent's best shot in every game - such is life for reigning champions - the playoffs have delivered more challenges in 20something games (including a 3-1 deficit in the Western Conference finals against Oklahoma City) than the first 82 offered combined.


''I think if you start out every season and you say `We get a Game 7, we get one game at home to win the NBA championship,' I'll take it every time,'' Kerr said. ''So I can't wait for Sunday. I think we'll be fine. Obviously Cleveland has played well the last two games, and we've got to play better. But I'm confident we will. We're in a spot that 29 other teams would love to be in.''


Kerr got fined $25,000 on Friday for being critical of referees after Golden State's loss in Game 6, and Curry got fined another $25,000 for throwing his mouthpiece into the stands after fouling out of that game.


If the Warriors - who are still steamed that Draymond Green was suspended for Game 5 because he accrued one too many flagrant fouls in this postseason - find calls more to their liking in Game 7, that'll be money extremely well spent.


''We're going to need some emotion and some grit and toughness,'' said Curry, who noted the Warriors are already 3-0 in elimination games this season.


Their problems go deeper than officiating issues, though. The Warriors don't have a single starter shooting 50 percent in this series, are clearly a different defensive team with Bogut sidelined, have 2015 Finals MVP Andre Iguodala playing with wince-inducing lower back soreness, have yielded two straight 41-point games to James and are in their first extended slide of the season - losing three times in a four-game span.


If shots fall at their usual clip on Sunday, the Warriors will probably win.


Otherwise, a team that looks like it's limping to the finish could see its reign end.


''We all realize if you told us at the beginning of the season it would be one game to win the championship in Oakland, we'll take that any day of the week,'' shooting guard Klay Thompson said. ''We've just got to come Sunday with the mindset of leave it all out there, every man on this team. No hero ball, just do it as a team like we've been doing it all year.''

 

[CNOTES]

NBA Playoffs - Game 7 Facts
June 17, 2016


Game 7 Quick Facts


-- The NBA has had 125 Game 7’s in playoff history


-- The home team is 101-24 (81%) in those games


-- There have been 18 Game 7's played in the NBA Finals, this meeting will be the 19th


-- The home team has gone 15-3 (83%) in those contests.


-- The last visitors to win a Game 7 of the NBA Finals was the Washington Bullets, who defeated the Seattle Supersonics 105-99 in 1978.


-- Since 1994, there have been four Game 7's played in the NBA Finals (listed below).

NBA FINALS RECENT GAME 7 BETTING HISTORY


Year Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1994 New York at Houston (-4.5) 90-84 Favorite Under (176)
2005 Detroit at San Antonio (-4) 81-74 Favorite Under (174)
2010 Boston at L.A. Lakers (-6.5) 83-79 Underdog Under (186.5)
2013 San Antonio at Miami (-5.5) 95-88 Favorite Under (197.5)


-- The favorite has gone 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread during that span.


-- All four games were decided by single digits, the largest margin being seven points.


-- The 'under' has produced a 4-0 record with none of the teams scoring more than 100 points.


-- The 2016 NBA playoffs have had four Game 7's played and the home team has won all four games (3-1 ATS), two of the victories coming by double digits.


Eastern Conference First Round - Miami 106 vs. Charlotte 73
Eastern Conference First Round - Toronto 89 vs. Indiana 84
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Toronto 116 vs. Miami 89
Western Conference Finals - Golden State 96 Oklahoma City 88


-- The 2015 postseason featured two Game 7's. The home team went 2-0 with the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets capturing victories.


-- The 2014 postseason featured five Game 7's. The home team went 4-1 in those games and the lone visitor to win was Brooklyn, who defeated Toronto 104-103 in overtime.


Cleveland Game 7 Recent History
2006 Eastern Conference Finals
Cleveland 61 at Detroit 79


2009 Eastern Conference Semifinals
Cleveland 92 at Boston 97


LeBron James Game 7 Recent History
2012 Eastern Conference Finals
Miami 101 vs. Boston 88


2013 Eastern Conference Finals
Miami 99 vs. Indiana 76


2013 NBA Finals
Miami 95 vs. San Antonio 88


Golden State Game 7 Recent History
2016 Western Conference Finals
Golden State 96 vs. Oklahoma City 88


2014 Western Conference First Round
Golden State 121 at L.A. Clippers 126


ALL-TIME GAME 7 ROAD WINNERS


Year Road Team Home Team Round


2014 Brooklyn 104 Toronto 103 First round


2013 Chicago 99 Brooklyn 93 First round


2012 L.A. Clippers 82 Memphis 72 First round


2009 Orlando 101 Boston 82 Conference semifinals


2007 San Antonio 91 New Orleans 82 Conference semifinals


2007 Utah 103 Houston 99 First round


2006 *Dallas 119 San Antonio 111 Conference semifinals


2005 Detroit 88 Miami 82 Conference finals


2005 Indiana 97 Boston 70 First round


2002 *L.A. Lakers 112 Sacramento 106 Conference finals


2000 New York 83 Miami 82 Conference semifinals


1995 Indiana 97 New York 95 Conference semifinals


1995 Houston 115 Phoenix 114 Conference semifinals


1982 Philadelphia 120 Boston 106 Conference finals


1981 Kansas City 95 Phoenix 88 Conference semifinals


1981 Houston 105 San Antonio 100 Conference semifinals


1978 Washington 105 Seattle 99 NBA Finals


1976 Phoenix 94 Golden State 86 Conference finals


1974 Boston 102 Milwaukee 87 NBA Finals


1973 New York 94 Boston 78 Conference finals


1971 Baltimore 93 New York 91 Conference finals


1969 Boston 108 L.A. Lakers 106 NBA Finals


1968 Boston 100 Philadelphia 96 Division finals


1948 Philadelphia 85 St Louis 46 Semifinals




(*) Asterisk denotes overtime

 

[CNOTES]

Game 7 Props - Best Bets
June 18, 2016




Chris David: 9-5 (+1275)
Tony Mejia: 12-6 (+1265)
Kevin Rogers: 10-7 (+90)


Based on a five-unit bankroll, their top props are listed for Game 7 below.


Odds & Props provided by Sportsbook.ag


Chris David


2 Units – Over Stephen Curry Total Field Goal Attempts 21.5 (-110)


I played this prop in Game 5 and Curry came through albeit it was tight. If the league’s MVP is on the court, he’s going to chuck and that’s not changing in Game 7. The key is 40 minutes and if Steve Kerr leaves him out there, he’ll get the job done. Even if the game gets out of hand one way or another, it’s rare to see the starters pulled until the last minute and I expect Curry to be hoisting all night.


2 Units – Over Richard Jefferson Total Points+Rebounds 9.5 (+100)


This 14-year NBA veteran continues be a key factor in this series and certainly a bit of a surprise. After averaging 16 minutes per game in the conference finals, Jefferson is up to 24 MPG against the Warriors and that time has increased his production. Outside of Game 1 when finished with three points and two boards while playing 12 minutes, RJ has come back with a combined 17, 17, 9, 9 and 9 points & rebounds in the last five games. With Kevin Love still shaky, I expect Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue to press the veteran in the finale which should give him a great chance to eclipse this number (9.5).


1 Unit – Over Draymond Green Total Rebounds+Assists (+100)

Even though we saw Green score 28 in Game 2 of this series, he’s a better job as a facilitator and the coaching staff should stress that role on Sunday. I don’t expect him to take as many shots in Game 7 and he’ll likely do whatever is needed to get the shooters involved. In the 15 playoff wins for the Warriors, Green is averaging 10.7 rebounds and 6.1 assists. If Golden State comes through, this prop should connect accordingly.


Kevin Rogers


2 Units - Kevin Love Under 11.5 Points (-120)


Not to state the obvious, but Love has been non-existent since suffering a concussion in the Game 2 loss at Golden State. He played only 12 minutes in the Game 6 victory at home, scoring seven points, while putting up a total of 20 points in the past three games. It's hard to think he'll bust out with the Cavaliers likely leaning on James and Irving in Game 7.

2 Units - J.R. Smith Under 2.5 Total Made Three-Point Field Goals (Even)


Smith has not shot the ball well at Oracle Arena in this series, hitting one three-pointer in each of the three games played in Oakland. He had just two attempts from downtown in the Game 5 victory, while making an average of 2.3 treys a game during this series. He hasn't had many attempts at Oracle Arena, so 'under' is the way to go.


1 Unit - Draymond Green What will he do first - Made Free Throw (-300)


Yes, this is some heavy wood to lay, but Green has made his last eight free throw attempts at Oracle Arena since going 5-of-9 from the line in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Green got the kinks out in Game 6 following his short suspension, as he should be able to knock out this prop easily.


Tony Mejia


2 Units - LeBron James Over 49.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)


He's been operating at an elite level over the past couple of games, scoring 41 points in back-to-back contests. While it's unlikely he tops 40 again, look for him to put together another strong effort.


1.5 Units - Stephen Curry Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115)


The Warriors are counting on his energy, which means he'll have to make plays and stay active even if his shots aren't falling. He's helped the Warriors all series with his rebounding, sticking his nose in there with the big boys.


1.5 Units - Draymond Green Over 1.5 Made 3-pointers (+120)


Opportunities will be there for Green, who is most comfortable shooting it at Oracle. Look for him to come up with a couple of long-range bombs.