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Dunkel

Friday, June 10


Golden State @ Cleveland

Game 507-508
June 10, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
134.568
Cleveland
130.449
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 4
190
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2
206 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, June 10

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GOLDEN STATE (87 - 15) at CLEVELAND (70 - 29) - 6/10/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 57-42 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 64-44 ATS (+15.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 45-32 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-39 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 8-7 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-5 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Friday, June 10

Golden State at Cleveland, 9:00 ET
Golden State: 4-12 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days
Cleveland: 13-5 ATS at home after a game where they made 12 or more 3 pt shots




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, June 10

Cleveland-Golden State (GSt 2-1)
Warriors won seven of last eight games with Cleveland, beating Cavaliers in six games in LY's Finals; Warriors are 3-5 on road in playoffs, with at least one road loss in each series- they're 3-1 in last four games in Cleveland, winning by 34-8-21 points. Cavaliers are 13-4 in playoffs, 8-0 at home. Cavs made 12-25 on arc in Game 3, had 17 offensive boards and shot 53% from floor. Four of last five Golden State games, three of last four Cavalier games stayed under the total. Curry/Thompson were combined 4-16 on arc in Game 3.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1
Final: Favorites: 3-0, Over: 1-2




NBA

Friday, June 10

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. CLEVELAND
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Golden State is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
 

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NBA Finals Game 4 Preview
June 10, 2016




NBA Finals - Game 4 - Warriors lead 2-1

Golden State at Cleveland (-2/206.5), 9:00 p.m. ET - ABC
After losing by 33 on Sunday in Oakland, the Cavaliers returned to their own time zone, got back inside their own building and ultimately won Game 3 by 30 points.


They’ve clawed back into the NBA Finals, but realistically, face another must-win.


Given Golden State’s supremacy this season, particularly in its own building, the Cavs want no part of going back to Cali down 3-1, which means their sense of urgency should again be through the roof. Can the Warriors match it now that they’ve seen what that looks like?


Head coach Steve Kerr consistently used the word “soft” to describe his team’s performance on Wednesday night. The Cavs scored the game’s first nine points, led 30-10 at one point in the first quarter and ultimately cruised 120-90 by breaking Golden State’s spirit in the third quarter as well.


The 63-point turnaround resoundingly flies in the face of this being the mismatch it appeared to be, but the Warriors remain heavily favored to win their second title. Sportsbook.ag has its series price set at Golden State -440 while Cleveland moves from +600 to +350. That places the Warriors at roughly 82 percent to repeat in spite of Game 3. The Cavs put together a phenomenal performance. Golden State played dreadfully. Oddsmakers immediately installed Cleveland as a two-point favorite to even up the NBA Finals, putting the total where they originally set it for Game 3 (206.5).


Now come the variables.


Klay Thompson was forced to leave for a sizeable first-half stretch with a thigh contusion after catching a Timofey Mozgov knee on a screen that he felt was “kind of dirty.” Mozgov, listed as a 7-foot-1, 275-pounder, did stick his knee out as Thompson was trying to chase Kyrie Irving through the lane, part of a series of moving screens that Golden State felt the Cavs were allowed to get away with because of the aggression and physicality displayed at the onset.


Thompson returned and scored 10 points, but shot 1-for-7 from 3-point range. He’ll play and receive treatment between now and Friday night’s tip-off, but there is likely to be some residual effects from the injury. If his movement or rhythm is bothered, that doesn’t bode well for him getting back on track.


Curry had a third-quarter flurry to end up with a cosmetic 19 points, actually his largest scoring output of the series, but Golden State’s failure at the onset was a product of his inability to gain separation by physically rising to the challenge. The Cavs beat him up, which is nothing new since he’s a marked man all season and managed to emerge as the NBA’s leading scorer (30.1). The unanimous MVP wasn’t himself.


“Unfortunately, it was all on me. They were playing aggressive defense and came out with a big punch, but I didn’t do anything about it or play my game,” said Curry, who has averaged just 16.0 points through the first three games. “For me to do what I need to do to help my team I have to play 100 times better, especially in that first quarter to try and control the game. I didn’t do it.”


Insisting he isn’t hurt, Curry vows to be more aggressive. Kerr insists he expect him to bounce back.


“Think about the OKC series, down 3-1, he hadn’t played well, look what he did the last three games,” said head coach Steve Kerr. “That’s Steph, he always responds. He has a huge heart, competitive as hell and extremely talented. I know how he will respond. He’ll play well. He always does.”


Draymond Green, who entered Game 3 as the betting favorite for Finals MVP honors, failed to properly motivate his team like he said he would. After putting that responsibility squarely on his own shoulders, he came up with a brutal game, scoring just six points while shooting 0-for-4 from 3-point range. LeBron James upstaged him on more than one occasion. Cleveland was consistently more physical.


Curry again got in foul trouble early, but opened cold and sloppy. When he was correctly whistled for two fouls in seven seconds to leave the game less than 10 minutes in, he did so knowing he’d failed miserably. He was 0-for-2 with two turnovers. Thompson was forced back to the locker room, but had already missed five shots, two free throws and turned it over once.


Conversely, James and Kyrie Irving were brilliant. They outscored the Splash Brothers 62-29, and the margin wasn’t really even that close since Curry got hot when the outcome was already decided. Tristan Thompson grabbed seven of his 13 rebounds on the offensive side of the ball, securing crucial extra possessions that helped stave off the Golden State’s comeback bid. His second double-double of the series marked his finest work this postseason. J.R. Smith, who was 2-for-7 from 3-point range in Oakland, shot 5-for-10 from beyond the arc, knocking down a few tightly-contested daggers to aid separation.


Richard Jefferson’s presence in the starting lineup seemed to mesh perfectly with everyone else, since he was as active as anyone. His work on defense helped Cleveland impose its will, which makes it logical to assume he would remain in the starting lineup even with Kevin Love expected to return from concussion suffered in Game 2. Love participated in practice Thursday and should officially be cleared after shootaround on Friday. Lue said he hadn’t thought about what he’d do yet when asked on Thursday afternoon, which means he isn’t ready to divulge anything until tip-off in order to leave Golden State in the dark.


The Warriors had targeted Love defensively in addition to Irving in order to gain a rhythm back in Oakland, but head coach Tyronn Lue refused to comment on the implication that Cleveland is better off without him. How the rookie head coach handles his rotation, specifically keeping James on Green at the onset of the game, should play a huge role in how Game 4 begins.


Beyond Golden State’s All-Star trio, the depth that fueled its first routs wasn’t there. Andrew Bogut often looked too slow to be out there, consistently finding himself out of position. Festus Ezeli got three minutes, and none of the big men provided much of a lift. The only Warriors who seemed to find a rhythm were Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Shaun Livingston.


“Something has to give in Game 4 between the Warriors and Cavaliers,” said VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers. “Cleveland improved to 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS at home in the playoffs following the Game 3 blowout of Golden State, as seven of those victories have come by 10 points or more. Golden State has lost consecutive games just once this season, coming in the Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City in Games 3 and 4. In 18 games this postseason that were decided by at least 20 points, teams coming off such defeats haven't bounced back well by posting a 6-12 SU and 7-13 ATS record, as the Warriors are 1-1 SU/ATS in the playoffs in this situation.”


Homecourt advantage typically allows the role players and shooters to settle in better, but the discrepancy is cartoonish given what we’ve seen thus far in this series. Cleveland has a 112.4-90-point differential and averages 24 assists while shooting 45.8 from 3-point range at Quicken Loans Arena this postseason. We’ll see if its domination can continue against a Warriors squad that has gone 2-6 in Game 3 over the past two seasons but has gone 28-5, with a point differential of 10.2 (107.3-97.1) in all other contests.
 

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Cavs try to even Finals
June 10, 2016





GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (87-15) at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (70-29)


NBA Finals
Tip-off: Friday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -2.0, Total: 206.5


The Cavaliers will be hoping to even up the series when they host the Warriors in Game 4 on Friday.


Golden State looked like it was heading towards a sweep over Cleveland after Games 1 and 2, but the Cavaliers responded in a big way in their first home game. The Cavs won 120-90 as 1.5-point favorites in Game 3, shooting 52.7% from the floor and holding the Warriors to just 42.1% shooting. It was a huge step forward for Cleveland, as Golden State had shot 49.4% in Game 1 and 54.3% in Game 2.


The Warriors aren’t going to hang their heads though. Golden State is a remarkable 11-3 ATS when revenging a loss versus an opponent this season and 21-8 ATS revenging a road loss versus an opponent over the past two seasons. The Warriors should be feeling confident heading into this one. The Cavaliers, however, are 19-8 ATS when playing only their second game in five days this season. They know they need to tie this thing up, so there will still be plenty of desperation when the ball tips on Friday.


The Warriors are at full strength heading into this one, but the Cavaliers do have PF Kevin Love (Concussion) listed on the injury report. He suffered a concussion in Game 2 that forced him to miss Game 3, but he is expected to get clearance in time to play in this one.


The Warriors looked like they were untouchable after Games 1 and 2 in this series, but they now find themselves in a tough situation in Game 4. Golden State can pretty much end this series by winning on the road on Friday, but a loss would mean that the teams would be tied heading back to Oracle for Game 5.


If the Warriors are going to win this game then PG Stephen Curry (24.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) is going to need to play well. He has been absolutely nonexistent in this series, averaging just 16.0 PPG on 43.6% shooting from the floor and 40.0% shooting from three. He’s also averaging a miserable 5.0 TOPG in the series. Curry has lacked the quickness that he had during the regular season and a lot of that might have to do with him having a banged up knee. He will, however, need to overcome that and play like the superstar he is moving forward.


SG Klay Thompson (24.1 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) and PF Draymond Green (15.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.9 BPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) will also need to be a lot better for Golden State in Game 4. They combined to shoot just 6-for-21 from the field in Game 3 and the Warriors can’t have their top three players performing that poorly on Friday.


The Cavaliers are coming off of a momentum shifting victory on Wednesday and SF LeBron James (24.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 7.2 APG, 2.2 SPG in playoffs) was unstoppable in that one. James had 32 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, two blocks and a steal in 40 minutes of action in Game 3. He was 14-for-26 from the floor and will need to bring that same aggressiveness into this game on Friday. James is at his best when he is putting pressure on the defense, so he can’t be too satisfied with finding his teammates in this one.


It’d also be big if PG Kyrie Irving (23.9 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) goes off for Cleveland again on Friday. He had 30 points and eight assists in Game 3, badly outplaying Steph Curry on both ends of the floor. If he can continue to win that matchup then the Cavaliers just might be able to take control of this series.


The presence of PF Kevin Love (16.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG in playoffs) could be the most interesting story coming into this one. Cleveland played a lot better with Love off the floor in Game 3 and it’s possible that he will come off the bench on Friday. Love must knock down some shots from the outside in this game or Cleveland will be in worse shape with him on the floor.
 

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Cavs' Love resumes basketball drills
June 9, 2016



CLEVELAND (AP) Kevin Love has resumed non-contact basketball activities, which could be the final step before the Cleveland Cavaliers get their starting power forward back in these NBA Finals.


Love was on the floor for basketball drills on Thursday. Cavs coach Tyronn Lue says it takes 24 hours after that workout before any determination can be made on Love's status.


Love missed Cleveland's 120-90 win over Golden State in Game 3 on Wednesday night because of a concussion. He was hurt in Game 2 of the series on Sunday and had to complete a number of steps mandated by the NBA concussion protocol before he could be cleared to play again.


The last of those steps is non-contact basketball workouts, which Love was doing in the open portion of Cleveland's Thursday practice.
 

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Warriors need to respond after blowout
June 9, 2016



CLEVELAND (AP) It's been the postseason of blowouts.


The NBA Finals have been no different. There was a 63-point turnaround from Game 2 to Game 3 in the span of about 72 hours.


Try to make sense of this: The Cleveland Cavaliers had their entire roster available to start Game 2 of the NBA Finals and wound up losing that game to the Golden State Warriors by 33 points. So in Game 3, with starting forward Kevin Love limited to watching in the locker room while he continues recovering from a concussion, the Cavaliers won by 30.


This sort of wild back-and-forth isn't just rare, it's unprecedented.


''At the end of the day, no matter if you lose by 30 or one, it's just one win,'' Cleveland star LeBron James said after the Cavaliers' 120-90 win on Wednesday night in Game 3. ''You have to be able to have a short mind and also learn from the mistakes that you made in the previous game and just try to better yourself in the following game.''


That was Cleveland's mandate going into Wednesday's game.


The task now falls to Golden State heading into Game 4 on Friday night.


This is the first time since 1965 that there's been two 30-point margin of victories in the NBA Finals - and the first time ever that teams have both won and lost games by 30 in the title series. There hadn't even been an instance of a team winning one game by 20 and then losing the next by 20 since the Chicago-Seattle series in 1996.


Again, try to make sense of that. It's not just this series - these playoffs are on pace for the highest average margin of victory that the NBA has ever seen. In theory, a matchup of the Eastern Conference and Western Conference champions should at least occasionally have some moments of drama in the final minutes.


So far, that's nowhere to be found in this series.


''The only change is just playing hard,'' said Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue, who wasn't going to spell out any specifics of anything related to the new ideas gleaned out of the Cavaliers' strategy sessions on Monday and Tuesday.


While Lue wasn't sharing, the Cavaliers - even with Love in the locker room - might have figured something out Wednesday night. They didn't switch as often against Golden State's steady diet of pick-and-rolls, and they showed the Warriors some new wrinkles - partly out of desperation, partly because they had different personnel units capable of different things.


''I think the game would have been the same whether he played or not,'' Golden State coach Steve Kerr said of Love after Game 3. ''This was about one team being emotionally fired up and angry about being down 2-0, and another team being comfortable. So I don't think that had anything to do with it. I think it was just the level of intensity that they brought. They would have brought it with Kevin, too. So I don't think it made a difference.''


No one would say Cleveland is more talented when Love isn't in uniform.


But in Game 3, they were better without him.


His status for Game 4 is unknown, and Cleveland might have a dilemma on its hands when Love gets medically cleared to play again. If the doctors say he can play, then he'll play - but it wouldn't seem likely that the Cavaliers will get away from what worked Wednesday.


What Lue should do will be one of the more debated topics until Friday's game.


''I'm not going to tell you,'' the Cleveland coach said when asked how he would use Love in Game 4, if he's cleared.


The Cavs had three players - James, Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith - each reach 20 points in Game 3, which is three more such outings than the Warriors have gotten from Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in this series.


The ''Splash Brothers'' haven't exactly lived up to the moniker.


Combined, they're shooting 31 for 77 (40 percent) from the field in the series, 16 for 45 (36 percent) from 3-point range, and have shot a combined nine free throws between them.


''The best part about this team is we responded well the whole year, and we've had a bad history of Game 3s, which is unfortunate,'' said Thompson, after the Warriors dropped to 0-4 in Game 3s in this postseason. ''But luckily for us a golden opportunity still to go home up 3-1, so no time to sulk. I mean, me and Steph haven't really shot the ball as well as we want to. That's all right. We're still up 2-1.''
 

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Curry says he needs to play better, and Warriors say he will
June 9, 2016



CLEVELAND (AP) Turns out, Stephen Curry has not entered some level of basketball infallibility.


His unanimous MVP selection, the record 3-point total, the league scoring title, all those accolades while he was leading the Golden State Warriors to an NBA-record 73 regular-season wins may have made it seem like he was in some sort of permanent video-game mode.


And then came the NBA Finals.


The MVP is struggling, and what once looked like a Golden State stranglehold on a repeat title no longer does. Curry has been held to 16 points per game in the first three matchups in this series against Cleveland, which resumes when the Cavaliers play host to Game 4 on Friday night.


''We can definitely help Steph out and we will,'' Warriors coach Steve Kerr said Thursday. ''We can put him in better position. ... The coaching staff has to figure out the best lineups and the best looks. Players have to perform. It's on all of us to be better.''


Curry averaged 30 points per game in the regular season, but it's been a perfect storm in the finals for struggle: He missed shots he ordinarily makes in Game 1, got himself into foul trouble in Game 2, and endured a combination of more foul trouble and smothering, grabby, invasive Cleveland defense in Game 3.


Golden State leads the series 2-1, so it's not exactly a dire situation the Warriors are facing. But if the Warriors are going to repeat, Curry probably needs to get somewhere closer to normal soon.


''Last night was a struggle,'' Curry said. ''Just, again, foul trouble and kind of dealing with that, but also not being as aggressive as I needed to be. I don't know what the reason was for that, and it won't be that in Game 4.''


The Cavaliers made sure Curry felt them everywhere he went in Game 3. When he tried to get into the lane, there would be someone waiting to bump him. Baseline cut, someone would make sure to impede his path. Flash toward the ball, and Kyrie Irving or another Cavalier was often there to take a little swipe at him - not enough for a foul, but more than enough to pester.


''That's for all of their guys, not just Steph,'' Cavaliers forward LeBron James said. ''They do a great job of the ball moving, and when you allow those guys to move with freedom of space, they're very dangerous. They're already dangerous enough. So when you allow them to run around and not feel any pressure or any physicality or anything, you know, they're able to just be even more comfortable.''


The 30-point romp in Game 3 might make it seem like the Cavaliers control the series, but they still need to win three of the next four games against a team that isn't prone to slides of any significant length. Kevin Love appeared to be making strides Thursday toward a return from his concussion, but if he plays on Friday- and in what role - remain unanswered questions.


Down 0-2, the Cavs had no choice but to be desperate. After a 30-point win, James wants to see that same desperation.


''We can't afford to go down 3-1 and go into their building and give them confidence going back,'' James said. ''So it's a do-or-die game for us still.''


To knot the series, it almost certainly means the Cavaliers can't let Curry or his backcourt mate Klay Thompson - and definitely not the both of them - have big games. Draymond Green leads the Warriors in scoring through three games of this series, which is probably more than Cleveland could have hoped for coming into the matchup.


''You've got to be so locked in where you're almost in a matrix, locked in a zone,'' Cleveland forward Tristan Thompson said when asked about how the Cavaliers guard Curry. ''Because, really, if you relax for one second, Steph's on the other side of the court and he's getting the open 3 in the corner.''


Kerr played alongside Michael Jordan in the 1990s, so he's seen what players who are the faces of the league - like Curry basically is now - endure when they struggle. Kerr said he rarely even has to give Curry advice on such matters, and poked fun at the notion that the Warriors suddenly went from strutting to sputtering.


''All we have to do is take stock,'' Kerr said. ''We're up 2-1. We're in pretty good shape. We haven't played that well. Let's play better.''


Curry offered similar sentiments.


''I like our chances,'' Curry said, ''of being able to figure it out.''
 

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NBA ATS


NBA > (507) GOLDEN STATE@ (508) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-10 21:05:00 - 2016-06-10 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE against the spread in All games after a non-conference game
The record is 22 Wins and 8 Losses for the this season (+13.2 units)


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NBA MONEYLINE


NBA > (507) GOLDEN STATE@ (508) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-10 21:05:00 - 2016-06-10 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 29 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+21.95 units)

NBA > (507) GOLDEN STATE@ (508) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-10 21:05:00 - 2016-06-10 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game
The record is 52 Wins and 11 Losses for the this season (+27 units)


-------------------


TOP NBA POWERLINE


NBA > (507) GOLDEN STATE @ (508) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-10 21:05:00 - 2016-06-10 21:05:00
Line: CLEVELAND-2 BTB PowerLine: CLEVELAND-4
Edge On: CLEVELAND (2)
 

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FRIDAY, JUNE 10

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


GS at CLE 09:00 PM

GS +2.5


O 206.0
 

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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack


-- Penguins 3, Sharks 1-- Pittsburgh wins its fourth Stanley Cup.


-- Royals 3, White Sox 1-- Ned Yost is now 500-499 as Royals' manager.


-- Tigers 4, Bronx 1-- Michael Fulmer has now thrown 28 consecutive scoreless innings; he was in the Mets/Cespedes trade last summer.


-- Marcus Lee transfers from Kentucky to Cal, a good get for Cuonzo Martin.


-- Cubs 13, Braves 2-- Chicago has 23 wins by 5+ runs; they have 18 losses.


-- Kenny Smith Jr committed to play hoop at University of Pacific in the WCC.


**********


Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sad weekend......


13) 50 people gunned down in a nightclub. 53 more injured.


I've never touched a gun in my life, so obviously I am not pro-gun, but how can any reasonable person not think something needs to be done about this?


12) Draymond Green got assesed a flagrant foul from Friday night's game, which puts him over the limit on flagrants, so he is suspended for tonight's Game 5.


11) Wonder how many kids realize what a great player George Gervin was? He is in that Gatorade commercial with Dwyane Wade-- he just isn't some older guy wearing a sweatsuit- he was one of the most prolific scorers that game has ever seen.


10) Gervin once played for an ABA team called the Virginia Squires, who were an announcer's nightmare; they had Gervin, Julius Erving and George Irvine all on the same team. Imagine the three of them coming down on a 3-on-2 fast break.


9) Florida Gators' baseball field is weird; it doesn't have dirt basepaths from home to first base or from third base to home.


8) During replay reviews at White Sox home games, if the original call went in favor of the White Sox, the PA system plays the Beatles' classic, "Let It Be".


7) OK, so I traded five guys to get Felix Hernandez on my fantasy team, which has turned into a debacle, since Hernandez got hurt right after I traded for him. Turns out he may have gotten hurt while celebrating a teammate's home run. Oy.


If I was a head coach, no matter what sport, I'd have a strict rule about celebrations; no one leaves their feet to celebrate. Kendrys Morales broke his leg jumping on home plate after a walk-off home run- it has greatly hampered his career since. Find a way to celebrate without jumping and putting your legs at risk- it is not that difficult.


6) I'm flipping channels late Saturday night and I come across Bloodsucking Bastards, arguably the worst title in movie history. Billed "an action-packed horror comedy", it took me about 90 seconds to turn off-- simply awful.


5) Cardinals are now 35-0 when they lead in the 7th inning or later, only big league team that is still unbeaten in that scenario.


4) Far as I know, there are three big league pitchers who wear single-digit numbers; Marcus Stroman (6) of Toronto, Julio Urias (7) of Dodgers, Mike Leake (8) on Cards. Colorado's Adam Ottavino wears 0, but he is on the DL.


3) If you read this space a lot, you know that Steve Martin is my favorite; what a great comedian/actor, a brilliant guy. My two favorite Steve Martin movie scenes:
-- In Roxanne, when he comes up with 20 (actually 26) jokes in a crowded bar about his long nose.
-- In Leap of Faith, when the teenage boy drops his leg braces and walks across the stage, years after being crippled in a car accident.


2) Get well soon to Mets' manager Terry Collins, who wasn't feeling well and was taken to a Milwaukee hospital before Sunday's game with the Brewers. He stayed in Milwaukee for observation overnight; we wish him the best.


1) Our thoughts and prayers go out to people in Orlando after Saturday night's mass killings. Workers were going thru the ravaged nightclub Sunday, with cellphones of the deceased still ringing in their pockets, as loved ones tried to find them.


The shooter is someone the FBI investigated in 2013 and 2014; how this person was allowed to legally purchase guns is beyond me. At some point this has to stop before the world becomes one big target range, but thats just my opinion. There have to be more stringent background checks on people who want to buy weapons.


We need to be nicer to each other, to tolerate each other, before it is too late.
 

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NBA

Monday, June 13

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NBA Finals Game 5 betting preview and odds: Cavaliers at Warriors
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The Warriors will be without Draymond Green for a potential Championship clinching Game 5 at home.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-5.5, 204.5)

The Golden State Warriors are attempting to win their second straight NBA championship on Monday but will have to play Game 5 without suspended forward Draymond Green. The Warriors hold a 3-1 series lead over the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals but Green won't be inside the arena after the NBA issued a flagrant 1 foul on Sunday for a Game 4 incident in which he swung and hit Cleveland forward LeBron James in the groin.

Green is forced to sit out because it is his fourth flagrant foul of the postseason and coach Steve Kerr didn't publicly say who would start in his place and he also sidestepped a question regarding whether he was disappointed in Green. "That's just something that stays within the team. It's not anything I'm going to comment on," Kerr told reporters at Sunday's press conference. "I'm disappointed for him that he can't play in a big game. But the ruling has been made, and we've got to move on." No team has ever recovered from a 3-1 series deficit to win the NBA Finals and the Cavaliers lost the first two games of the series at Oracle Arena by an average of 24 points and know it will take a supreme effort to force a Game 6. "We've already got to take a flight back home anyways, so we might as well come home with a win and play on our home floor again," James told reporters. "Being a confident bunch we feel like the chips have been stacked up against us all year anyway."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened up as 7.5-point favorites at home for Game 5 but the public felt that a desperate Cavaliers club would keep the game close - the line was dropped to -6.5. On Sunday afternoon it was announce that Draymond Green would be suspended for the next contest and the line was dropped another full point to -5.5. The total opened up at 206 and was dropped down to 204.5 on Sunday morning. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (70-30, 47-50-3 ATS, 49-51 O/U): James is averaging 24.8 points, 11 rebounds and 8.3 assists in the series but those numbers are being overshadowed by a truly ugly stat - an average of 5.8 turnovers. "Some of them were attack turnovers," James said of his second seven-miscue contest of the series in Game 4. "Trying to squeeze the ball into tight places as a quarterback would, and I'm OK with those. But some of those that are careless, I'm not OK with that." Point guard Kyrie Irving had 34 points in Game 4 for his second consecutive 30-point performance and he is averaging 25 points in the series.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (88-15, 59-42-2 ATS, 53-49-1 O/U): Two-time MVP Stephen Curry broke out of a three-game slumber in a big way with 38 points and seven 3-pointers in the 108-97 victory in Game 4. Curry averaged just 16 points in the first three games and didn't even have a 20-point outing before regaining his form and setting the tone for the road victory. "He's Steph Curry. He's the MVP for a reason," Kerr told reporters. "He doesn't have the size and the strength to dominate a game physically, so he has to dominate with his skill, and that's not an easy thing to do because your shot sometimes isn't going to go in."

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games.
* Warriors are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.

CONSENSUS: 64 percent of the users are picking the Warriors to close out the season and cover the points in Game 5. As for the total, 68 percent of the wagers are on the Over.
 

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NBA
Dunkel

Monday, June 13


Cleveland @ Golden State

Game 509-510
June 13, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
126.486
Golden State
136.853
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 10 1/2
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 8
206
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-8); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, June 13

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CLEVELAND (70 - 30) at GOLDEN STATE (88 - 15) - 6/13/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 21-35 ATS (-17.5 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 32-40 ATS (-12.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-42 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-21 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games in all playoff games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 61-43 ATS (+13.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-22 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-7 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-5 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, June 13

Cleveland-Golden State (GSt 3-1)
Golden State is 0-4 in Game 3's in playoffs this spring, 15-2 in all the other games. Warriors went 17-36 on arc in Game 4 win which forces Cleveland to win last three games in series with two of the three in Oakland. Golden State won eight of last nine games with Cleveland, beating Cavaliers in six games in LY's Finals; Cavaliers are 13-5 in playoffs, 5-4 on road. Five of last six Golden State games, four of last five Cavalier games stayed under the total. Doubt that Cavs are strong enough defensively to beat Warriors three games in a row.

In the playoffs this spring, under is 50-31-1

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1
Final: Favorites: 3-1, Over: 1-3




NBA

Monday, June 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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9:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Cleveland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
 

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NBA Finals Game 5 Preview
June 13, 2016




NBA Finals - Game 5 - Warriors lead 3-1


Cleveland at Golden State (-5.5/205), 9:00 p.m. ET - ABC



Golden State is 50-3 at home this season, including 11-1 during these playoffs. All the Warriors need to claim their second consecutive NBA championship is one more win and will, as a worst-case scenario, get two cracks at it.


Coming off a great defensive effort in Cleveland during the fourth quarter of Game 4, Golden State will look to close out the Cavs and cap a season where they’ve already notched more wins than anyone in league history. If they’re going to be celebrating at Oracle Arena on Monday night, the Warriors must overcome the absence of Draymond Green, who was suspended for accumulation of flagrant foul points this postseason. The NBA assessed him with a flagrant 1 for a “retaliatory swipe of his hand to the groin” of LeBron James after the two were tangled up in the final few minutes late on Saturday.


Upon his suspension, the Warriors dropped from a 6.5-point favorite to -5.5 at most books.


James picked up a technical for stepping over him, while Green was penalized for being a habitual line-stepper. Golden State obviously took up for its teammate, blaming James for creating a situation for Green to retaliate against.


Klay Thompson insinuated that James has thin skin and didn’t care for the trash talk he heard down the stretch of a painful 108-97 loss on Friday night.


“I guess his feelings just got hurt,” said Thompson. “I mean, we’ve all been called plenty of bad words on the basketball court before. Some guys just react to it differently.”


LeBron laughed and said he’d take the high road. Again.


“I’ve been doing it for 13 years,” James said. “It’s so hard to continue to do it, and I’m going to do it again.”


So, this 3-1 series has a lot of spice. It’s had some substance too, thanks to Cleveland showing in Game 3 that it can physically impose its will when playing its best. The Cavs won 120-90 and then followed up by giving themselves a chance to even the series before a scoreless drought of 6:36 in the fourth quarter did them in.


Stephen Curry delivered 38 points after averaging just 16 over the first three games, while Thompson added 25 in a performance that quieted criticism of the struggling Splash Brothers. Meanwhile, Kevin Love’s value continued to plummet since the Cavs fell to 0-3 with him on the floor, being outscored by four points in his 25 minutes off the bench. After a strong showing in Game 3, the Cleveland bench was underwhelming again, scoring 15 total points and single assist off the bench. Meanwhile, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston were game-changers, combining for 18 points, nine boards and seven assists. Going back home, the second unit should be strong again and potentially serve as an x-factor like they did in the first two games, but the Warriors depth advantage is mitigated some by Green’s absence.


Iguodala will obviously get even more minutes and becomes a strong option to repeat as Finals MVP. He may remain in his sixth man role if Steve Kerr turns to Brandon Rush, who hasn’t scored all series and was inactive for Game 4 but has started 25 times this season. Either way, Iguodala will play a huge role with his defense on James and will become even more of a conduit offensively with the ball in his hands. He’s averaged 10 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists thus far and can net you +650 at Sportsbook.ag.


Curry, on the heels of his recent breakout, is the MVP favorite (-350), while Green (+450) and Thompson (+500) are also in the mix. Because Iguodala’s defense has already been such a difference maker and he’ll have to take his game up a notch even further without Green, there’s immense value there if Golden State is able to close out the Finals.


“Since allowing 108 points to Oklahoma City in the series opener of the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors have allowed less than 100 points in four of the past five playoff games at Oracle Arena,” VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers said. “The loss of Green will obviously be a hit since he has missed only one game the entire regular season and postseason. However, Golden State has covered in six of the last seven contests overall, while winning seven of the previous eight close-out games in the playoffs.”


The total for Game 5 opened at 206 ½ and dropped to as low as 205 as of Sunday night. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 through the first four games of this series and VegasInsider.com NBA totals expert Chris David was leaning to the ‘under’ again Monday but the Green suspension is making him a tad hesitant to pull the trigger.


“The books have cleaned up in this series with bettors chasing ‘over’ tickets and if wasn’t for a huge second-half in Game 3, the ‘under’ should be 4-0 in this series,” David explained. “Based on the range of numbers we’ve seen posted (207-211) thus far, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that you need at least 52 points a quarter to go ‘over’ and these teams haven’t proven that they could do that yet. In the first 16 quarters played, the Cavaliers and Warriors have combined for 50-plus points just seven times with a high of 64 coming in the third quarter of Game 3’s blowout.


“It’s easy to assume that Golden State wouldn’t have success versus Cleveland in an ugly scrum but it’s proving the pundits wrong. The Warriors are averaging 80 field goal attempts per game in this series, which is down from 87 attempts during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are attempting 85 shots per game and their best effort came in Game 3’s win when they tossed up 91 attempts. The Warriors-Over parlay combination has benefited bettors plenty of times during the regular season but that exacta has only connected four times during the postseason. The right investment has been GS-Under, which has come in 10 times in 21 playoff games.”


After the Green suspension was announced, a couple major outfits (CRIS, Wynn) received some action on the ‘under’ and dropped the total to 204 ½.


“Handicapping the Warriors without Green is very tricky because he’s only missed seven games in his four-year career, which is absolutely ridiculous,” David added. “For what it’s worth, Green sat out one game this regular season for rest and Golden State lost a 112-110 decision at Denver in mid-January and they were beat handily on the glass (59-45). His absence should lead to extra possessions for the Cavaliers but outside of Game 3, Cleveland hasn’t proven that they can make shots on a consistent basis against this defensive scheme. With that being said, I’d lean to the Cavaliers team total ‘under’ (99 ½) in Game 5.”


Cleveland won’t have to deal with Green, which means they’ll be able to attack the Warriors halfcourt defense in a way they haven’t been able to all series, so the emphasis is on James and Kyrie Irving being able to take advantage of the absence of Golden State’s defensive quarterback. The Cavs’ top scorers took 33 of their team’s 38 shots in Friday night’s second half, leaving room for just two teammates to make field goals, a Richard Jefferson layup and a short Love jumper that knotted the score at 79 to start the fourth. The Cavs scored nine more points over the next 10:21, sputtering as a unit.


Heading on the road to an arena where the Warriors have been so dominant leaves the Cavs little hope other than the aspiration that Green’s absence will be too much to overcome. Cleveland’s offense averaged just 83 points in the first two contests and will need to be much sharper.


“The Cavaliers have struggled on the highway of late, posting a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS record in the last six games away from Quicken Loans Arena,” said Rogers. “James will have to put Cleveland on his shoulders in order to save their season and move the series back to the “Q” on Thursday, but the Cavs are 1-4 SU/ATS in the last five Finals contests at Oracle Arena with three losses by double-digits.”


Golden State’s media availability session on Sunday came just after the Green suspension came down, so guys wore their raw emotions freely and spoke more candidly than they may have if they had more time to simmer down. Instead, they poked LeBron, continuing to instigate a back-and-forth against a team they’re getting ready to take down for the second consecutive year. That swagger is certainly a good sign if you’re the Warriors, if only because it puts more pressure on guys to back it up without their emotional leader. So long as they play their game, a partisan crowd that has already been apart for 50 wins should readily supply the fire.
 

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Cavs try to stay alive
June 11, 2016




CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (70-30) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (88-15)


NBA Finals
Tip-off: Monday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -8.0, Total: 206.0


The Warriors will be going for their second straight NBA championship when they host the Cavaliers in Game 5 on Monday.


The Warriors looked miserable in Game 3, but they were able to bounce back with a 108-97 victory as 2.5-point road underdogs on Friday night. Golden State shot just 40.7% from the floor in the game, but the team did connect on 17 threes. It was the first time in NBA Finals history that a team won by making more threes than it did twos. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, shot 46.9% from the floor in the game. They will, however, need to do a lot better defensively in Game 5. They can’t afford to let the Warriors get free for any open threes or they just might be watching Golden State’s trophy presentation after the game.


One trend that favors the Cavaliers in this game is that they are 19-9 ATS when playing only their second game in five days this season. The Warriors, meanwhile, are 10-2 ATS in home playoff games this season. They’ll certainly be extra motivated to win it on their home floor in this one as well.


PF Draymond Green (Possible Suspension) is a major question mark heading into this game. He could be suspended after an altercation with LeBron James in Game 4 and his absence would be huge for both teams.


The Cavaliers are facing elimination and they’re really going to need SF LeBron James (24.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 7.3 APG, 2.2 SPG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs) to play aggressively in Game 5. James had 25 points, 13 rebounds, nine assists, three blocks and two steals in Game 4, but he also turned the ball over seven times. He tends to disappear for large portions of the game at times and that needs to stop. James does a lot to impact the game and make his teammates play better, but the Cavaliers are going to need him to have a scorer’s mentality on Monday. He scored 32 points in the only game the Cavaliers won in this series, so he just might need to score 30 or more in this one as well.


PG Kyrie Irving (24.4 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) has been one player that has showed up for Cleveland in this series. He’s averaging 32.0 PPG and 6.0 APG over the past two contests and will need to continue to perform at a high level offensively. There is, however, some room for him to improve defensively.


The x-factor in Game 5 might just be PF Tristan Thompson (6.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG in playoffs) though. Thompson has been a monster on the glass and will need to continue to be the rest of this series. He did, however, go a miserable 0-for-5 from the line in Game 4 and if he can’t make free throws then he won’t be able to stay on the floor for his team.


The Warriors seemed like they might be in trouble, as they faced quite a few deficits in Game 4. They did, however, rally back on multiple occasions and they were able to come away with a 108-97 victory.


The biggest difference for Golden State in this game was that PG Stephen Curry (25.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) and SG Klay Thompson (24.1 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) finally showed up in this one. The “splash brothers” combined to score 63 points in the game, connecting on a total of 11 threes. 38 of the points came from Curry and he desperately needed to perform at a high level, as he was averaging just 16.0 PPG in the first three games of this series. If he and Thompson can get it going from the outside in Game 5 then the Warriors should be hoisting the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy on Monday night.


The status of PF Draymond Green (15.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.9 BPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) will be crucial in determining the outcome of this one. Green could be facing a suspension for a cheap shot to LeBron James in Game 4 and his loss would be huge in this game. He has done a great job on both ends of the floor and is the emotional leader of this Warriors team. One last guy that must be mentioned is SF Andre Iguodala (9.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.2 SPG in playoffs). Iguodala was the Finals MVP in 2015 and just might be winning his second in a row if he plays well in a Warriors win on Monday. He has played lockdown defense all series long and will need to continue to frustrate LeBron James moving forward.
 

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Cleveland must seize Finals chance
June 13, 2016


OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Draymond Green and LeBron James might make up, get over this moment and become friends again one day.


It's hard to envision that right now, given how these NBA Finals have become far less friendly by the day, more testy by the game, with Golden State's Green smack in the middle of much of the action.


Until now.


Suddenly, James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have their opening and perhaps a prime chance to get back into this best-of-seven series: with Green banned and outside the building altogether.


He will have to watch his Warriors try to close out a second straight championship with everybody else who can't get into sold-out Oracle Arena on Monday night. Green was suspended Sunday for his dustup with James in the fourth quarter of Friday's Game 4 win that drew a retroactive Flagrant-1 foul against Golden State's emotional leader. The NBA said Green ''made unnecessary contact with a retaliatory swipe of his hand to the groin'' of James, who was issued a retroactive technical for his role in the scuffle.


''I think we all know what's crossing the line no matter if you're playing basketball or if you're playing video games or we're playing catch or you're double-dutching it,'' James said. ''We know what words cross the line, male or female. And ever since Draymond came into the league, I've been someone that he can always talk to and things of that nature. But he crossed the line last game. He felt like I crossed the line. We said what we had to say.


''So we're in a competitive series right now, and I think right now friendship is the last thing we're thinking about.''


Steve Kerr and his Warriors coaching staff were working furiously Sunday to figure out what to do without Green, game-planning minus an All-Star swingman who does it all on defense, can bring the ball up court when necessary, is Golden State's top rebounder this postseason and a threat for a triple-double each time he steps on the floor - celebratory muscle-flexing and all. The Warriors lead the series 3-1.


Golden State won a record 73 games during the regular season after a record 24-0 start despite not having Kerr for the first 43 games as he recovered from complications following two back surgeries, missed Festus Ezeli and Andre Iguodala for stretches and made it this deep in the playoffs with Curry sidelined during the early rounds because of ankle and knee injuries.


Several Warriors spoke Sunday of winning for Green, whose postseason 15.3 points, team-high 9.6 rebounds and six assists will be greatly missed along with all the other intangibles like his hustle plays, encouraging words and high-flying chest bumps. He only missed one game all regular season, a 112-110 defeat at Denver on Jan. 13 and one of only nine losses.


The Cavs know they must capitalize and send the series back to Cleveland for a Game 6.


Coach Tyronn Lue's message is a simple one:


''I told the guys when we left, we have to come back to Cleveland anyway,'' he said, ''so why not come back and play a game?''


Even Cleveland understands how much Green means to the other side and the magnitude of his absence.


''He's one of those players that does whatever it takes for his team to win. He plays aggressive,'' Kevin Love said. ''Sometimes players, your actions or emotions get the best of you. ... You've seen guys suspended. You've seen guys with technicals, flagrants. That's just the way it is. Playoff basketball is a lot more physical.''


Emotional, too, so it seems.


Whatever Green uttered late in the fourth quarter Friday in that back and forth, James said, ''I felt like at that point in time, it was a little bit outside of basketball.''


Klay Thompson might also have fallen down LeBron's likable list Sunday.


''People have feelings and people's feelings get hurt even if they're called a bad word. I guess his feelings just got hurt,'' Thompson said. ''We've all been called plenty of bad words on the basketball court before. Some guys just react to it differently. All I can say for myself individually, I just try to ignore it or just let it fuel the fire, but I don't carry it with me when the job is done.''


When told of Thompson's comments, James laughed and said, ''Ahhh, my goodness.'' He paused, then responded again: ''It's so hard to take the high road. I've been doing it for 13 years. It's so hard to continue to do it, and I'm going to do it again.''


Golden State must go forward as it has done so many times this season when undermanned.


Shaun Livingston stepped in and delivered when Curry went down in the first round against Houston, then scored 20 points and was part of an impressive performance by Golden State's reserves in a Game 1 rout of Cleveland.


''It's kind of the ultimate test, with him and Steph being guys that are kind of irreplaceable,'' Livingston said. ''But it's something that we can rally upon. It's something that guys can step up. We can play with a chip on our shoulder. The same heart that he brings every game, we can play with that as a team, and I think we will.''
 

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TOP TRENDS


A tool that uses a comprehensive statistical database to analyze trends and make recommendations based on historical team data. Beyond just simple spreads and totals, this tool also offers top analysis for the moneyline, teaser, halftime, and run lines as well. The "unit" designation indicates how many betting units above or below even a player would be had they wagered one unit on the named team in every game that particular trend has qualified for.
NOTE: when the recommendation is AGAINST a team, units will be negative, because the team usually loses in that scenario, and units are calculated as if the bet was FOR the team.


NBA ATS


NBA > (509) CLEVELAND@ (510) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-06-13 21:05:00 - 2016-06-13 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE against the spread in All games after a non-conference game
The record is 23 Wins and 8 Losses for the this season (+14.2 units)


--------------

NBA MONEYLINE



NBA > (509) CLEVELAND@ (510) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-06-13 21:05:00 - 2016-06-13 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games after a win by 10 points or more
The record is 63 Wins and 14 Losses for the last two seasons (+35.3 units)


---------------


TOP POWER LINES
Users of our matchup reports are familiar with our Power Line ratings, calculated using both teams' ratings and home field advantage. The Top Power Lines tool offers a way to view and compare current Power Lines in one simple report, as well as the Power Line Edge, where the Power Line differs significantly from the current line.


NBA > (509) CLEVELAND @ (510) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-06-13 21:05:00 - 2016-06-13 21:05:00
Line: CLEVELAND BTB PowerLine: CLEVELAND-4
Edge On: CLEVELAND (1.5)
 

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Green to watch Game 5 next door
June 13, 2016



OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Suspended Golden State Warriors star Draymond Green was expected to watch Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night in a baseball suite next door to Oracle Arena at the Oakland Coliseum, where the Athletics are playing the Texas Rangers.


The Warriors, however, said Green's plans had already changed several times Monday morning.


The defending champions held a 3-1 lead against LeBron James and Cleveland in their best-of-seven series and were trying to close out a second straight title against the Cavaliers - this time in front of their raucous home fans.


''It's another test,'' guard Shaun Livingston said of playing without emotional leader Green. ''We've went through a lot of tests this year. It's kind of the ultimate being in the position that we're in, so it's a great opportunity for a lot of guys and for our team and coaches. ... It's a cohesion thing throughout the whole team. We rely on our chemistry, we rely on each other, we play for each other. One guy is not just going to make up what Draymond brings to the table. It's all the little things he does that wins championships.''


Green was suspended by the NBA on Sunday for a fourth-quarter scuffle with James in Game 4, during which the league said Green ''made unnecessary contact with a retaliatory swipe of his hand to the groin'' of James. Green was issued a retroactive Flagrant-1 foul for his fourth flagrant point of the postseason, drawing an automatic suspension.


James said Green's trash talk also went ''a little bit outside of basketball.''


After Monday's game, Green will be allowed to enter Oracle Arena to either celebrate with his teammates or prepare for a trip to Ohio for Game 6. Hallways connect the side-by-side venues, providing Green an ideal option to stay close by.


Smiling and being playful, Green was his upbeat, high-energy self - or at least appeared so - during a shootaround Monday morning at the team's downtown practice facility. He pulled off a set of pushups between taking shots, let out a loud ''Ahhhhh!'' for all to hear and animatedly pointed his right arm in the direction of center Andrew Bogut before disappearing as the Warriors wrapped up their day-of-game preparations.


While coach Steve Kerr has advised all of his players to stay ready because there might be some varying lineups and rotations, Livingston said Green hadn't addressed the team. There's a lot of production to make up for without Green's postseason 15.3 points, team-high 9.6 rebounds and six assists - not to mention his defense.


''It's tough. He's in a different position now,'' Livingston said. ''Usually he's able to be vocal and then go out and then go out and set the example. Now with him not playing, it's kind of speaking from a different position. Steve has been great kind of feeding us what we need. I don't think we should need any extra motivation tonight.''
 

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Game 5 Props - Best Bets
June 13, 2016



The NBA Finals continues on Monday with Game 5 between the Cavaliers and Warriors from Oracle Arena. If you’re hesitant to back the side or total for the second contest in this series, then we suggest you take a closer look at the available player props.


Our trio of NBA experts produced a 6-2 overall record for Game 4 and those winners produced over eight units of profit.




Chris David: 7-2 (+1345)
Tony Mejia: 8-4 (+800)
Kevin Rogers: 5-6 (-480)


Based on a five-unit bankroll, their top props are listed for Game 5 below.


Odds & Props provided by Sportsbook.ag


Chris David


3 Units - Over Stephen Curry Total Field Goal Attempts 20 (-115)


Curry stepped up in Game 4 and I expect him to continue firing away in Game 5 on Monday. In this year's playoffs, Curry has played 40-plus minutes in four games and he attempted 22, 22, 24 and 25 shots in those games. In the one contest that Draymond Green missed in the regular season, Curry hoisted 25 shots and I would expect a comparable number in Game 5. As long as he stays on the court, this wager could connect early.


2 Units - Under LeBron James Total 3-Point Field Goal Attempts 4.5 (-120)


This particular wager is going to be tight but with the paint opening up, I'm expecting LeBron to drive and dish in Game 5 rather than camp outside. In the first 18 games of this year's playoffs, he's eclipsed this number (4.5) eight times while attempting no more than six in a game. In Cleveland's last five postseason wins, he's attempted a combined 15 shots from 3-point land. Knowing he's the smartest player in the NBA, I'm believing that he knows the best chance to win Game 5 is to get inside and grind out a win.


Kevin Rogers


2 Units – Over Andre Iguodala Total Points 10.5 (-115)

With Draymond Green sidelined due to his suspension, Iguodala will get more minutes in Game 5. Iguodala continues to show consistency off the bench by averaging 10 points per game in the Finals.

2 Units – Under J.R. Smith Made Three-Pointers 2.5 (-120)



Smith hit 5-of-10 three-pointers in the Game 3 blowout, but has shot 4-of-15 from downtown in the other three games of this series. The Cavaliers’ guard attempted only seven three-pointers in the opening two games at Oracle Arena, while hitting four treys or fewer in seven consecutive contests in Oakland.


1 Unit – Under Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 20 (-120)


Barnes has stepped up in this series, averaging 12.5 points per game. In the three prior Game 5’s of the playoffs, Barnes has scored 8, 8, and 6 points, while pulling down a total of 11 rebounds in those games. The Warriors’ swingman hasn’t dished out more than three assists in a game this postseason, so as long as that trend remains true and he struggles from the floor, then this should stay ‘under’ the total.

Tony Mejia


2 Units – Over Andre Iguodala Total Rebounds + Assists 9.5 (-115)



Draymond Green's absence makes Iggy even more important and ensures he's likely to get 35-plus minutes barring foul trouble. Expect him to pack the stat sheet in these two categories.


2 Units – Over LeBron James Points + Rebounds + Assists 45.5 (-115)

It would be shocking if he doesn't go down swinging, which means he'll be in attack mode and involved in every aspect of the game.


1 Unit – Over J.R. Smith 3-pointers made 2.5 (-120)


Given the extra attention the Warriors will have to give LeBron with Green not out there, expect there to be open looks for the Cavs' inconsistent sniper, who should deliver on his share.
 

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MONDAY, JUNE 13


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


CLE at GS 09:00 PM


GS -5.5


O 208.0
 

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Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack


Regular season plus/minus for the Golden State Warriors this year:


+1,068-- Draymond Green (70% of minutes)


+1,023-- Steph Curry (67%)


+835-- Klay Thompson (67%)


+454-- Andre Iguodala (43%)


+451-- Harrison Barnes (51%)


+399-- Andrew Bogut (36%)


**********


Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......


13) Baseball's interleague trading deadline is July 31, but when I was a kid, back in the 70's, it was June 15. On June 15, 1976, the A's tried to sell Rollie Fingers/Joe Rudi to the Red Sox and Vida Blue to New York. Oakland had won the last five AL West titles, but had lost Catfish Hunter to free agency, and the owner was bailing out.


Now I was a 16-year old high school junior; this didn't set well with me, someone who had zero idea how the real world works. Three days later, the baseball commish nixed the deals and the players went back to Oakland, but things were never the same again.


I guess that day was when it hit me that sports are a big business, not just something that people do for fun.


12) Nationals 5, Cubs 4 (12)-- Chicago is now 40-4 when it scores 4+ runs. This had the feel of a postseason game.


11) Last time the #1 pick in NBA Draft came from the Pac-12 (or Pac-8 or Pac-10) was Bill Walton way back in 1974.


10) Philadelphia Eagles have doled out $280,254,834 in guaranteed salary so far in 2016; next highest figure in NFL this year: Giants, at roughly $141M.


9) You don't see a starting pitcher thrown out of a game for arguing balls, strikes very often; Tampa Bay's Jake Odorizzi got run by umpire Jerry Meals Tuesday nite. Meals is a notorious hitters' ump (over is 28-13-3 in Meals' games last two years).


8) Last major league player to play every position in one game: Shane Halter, way back on October 1, 2000 for Detroit.


7) Obscure baseball record: since 1938, of all the hitters to bat .300+ in a season, Billy Butler into the most doubleplays-- he hit into 32 twin killings in 2010, when he hit .318. Four guys hit into 31 DPs, including Matt Holliday and Jim Rice.


6) Another nominee for "Worst TV show ever": Marriage Boot Camp. Horrendous progam showcasing attention-starved couples getting in disputes of various kinds. I'd rather stare at color bars for an hour than watch another minute of that garbage.


5) Colorado Rockies DFA'd Jose Reyes yesterday, meaning they have ten days to trade him or else they can release him or send him to the minors, if he agrees to do that. Reyes will still get his $22M a year salary, but not sure a contender will want to pick him up-- there is no way a non-conender would pick him up, given domestic violence backlash involved. Hard to believe his career would end this way.


4) Chris Sale was 9-0, 1.58 in his first nine starts this year; he is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four. Why do players suddenly lose it or why do they suddenly regain their form?


3) WWE is returning to Las Vegas Sunday night for first time in eight years, at the new T-Mobile Arena just off the strip, kind of behind the New York-New York hotel.


2) Portland Trailblazers decided to fire their TV announcers this week, which makes me sad, since Mike Rice is one of my favorites. A former coach, Rice used to call Big West games on USA Network in the Tark the Shark glory years in the 80's-- his son Mike was the coach at Rutgers a few years ago. Rice was with the Trailblazers for 26 yeasrs and is immensely popular with Trailblazer fans.


1) Apparently they don't have public rest rooms in North Dakota.


Eagles' rookie QB Carson Wentz somehow got locked in a bathroom at a gas station in New Jersey on Wednesday; his rescue included garden shears.


If the Rams had drafted this guy, I'd probably be a little worried right now.
 

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Favored Cavaliers battling some nasty NBA betting trends in Game 6


There have been six NBA Finals teams, down 3-2 in the series, favored in Game 6 since 1991. Just one of those favorites managed to cover, finishing 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU).


The Cleveland Cavaliers have jumped out of the frying pan and into the fire after avoiding elimination with a stunning 112-97 road win over the Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.


The Cavaliers, who are now down 3-2 to the Warriors in the championship series after twin 41-point efforts from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving Monday, find themselves not only fighting a motivated Golden State squad (one with star forward Draymond Green returning from suspension), but also battling an eye-opening NBA betting trend as sportsbooks currently have Cleveland pegged as a 2.5-point home favorite for Game 6 Thursday.


The Cavs are a rare betting favorite facing elimination in the NBA Playoffs, a situation that has produced a 50-72-2 ATS record (71-53 SU) going back to the 1991 NBA Playoffs, with those faves covering the spread just 41 percent of the time. Narrowing down those numbers to just favorites down 3-2 in the series, and that NBA chalk is a measly 26-41-0 ATS (35-32 SU) – a 39 percent ATS belly ache.


Betting history continues to pile on LeBron & Co. heading into Game 6. Looking exclusively at the NBA Finals, there have been six teams, down 3-2 in the series, favored in Game 6 of the finals in the past 25 years. Just one of those favorites managed to cover the pointspread (2010 Los Angeles Lakers), finishing 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU).


The size of the spread has also played a significant factor when it comes to favorites facing elimination. Favorites of -3 or less (Cleveland opened -2 and moved to -2.5) have gone a collective 12-25-0 ATS or 32 percent (14-23 SU), with teams stuck in a 3-2 hole producing a 9-17-0 ATS mark (10-16 SU) for a 35 percent success rate at the window. Those favorites of -3 or less down 3-2 in the NBA Finals have been outscored 94.5-92.4 in Game 6 since 1991, equaling a 10-16-0 Over/Under count.


On the season, the Cavaliers are 7-5 SU and ATS as favorites of -3 or less including the postseason. The Warriors, on the other hand, have been betting underdogs just 10 times this season, boasting a 7-3 ATS record as pups including a 2-1 ATS mark in the playoffs.


Golden State is 3-2 ATS in the 2016 NBA Finals and has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games versus Cleveland, including a 4-1 ATS record in its last five contests inside Quicken Loans Arena.


Over/Under note: Favorites facing elimination in the NBA Playoffs have produced a 56-66 Over/Under record in the past 25 years (32-35 O/U in Game 6 situations), with faves trailing 3-2 in the NBA Finals finishing with a 2-4 O/U mark in Game 6.
 

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