NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 10
Saturday’s best 13 games
Ohio State (-3) @ Penn State
Ohio State (6-1, 3-1)
Ohio State scored 31+ points in six of seven games.
Buckeyes’ only loss was 32-31 at Oregon; Ducks gained 496 yards.
Ohio State has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Buckeyes have 103 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Howard stated 33 games at Kansas State.
Under Day, OSU is 11-9-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Buckeyes are 1-1 on road (38-7 @ Michigan State/31-32 @ Oregon).
Buckeyes are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 conference games.
OSU is 9-5-2 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Ohio State allowed 17 or fewer points in all of its wins.
Penn State (7-0, 4-0)
Penn State QB Allar is banged up; check status.
PSU is 4-0 in Big 18, with three wins by 15+ points.
Nittany Lions are 1-3 ATS at home this season.
Nittany Lions have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Penn State has 45 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Allar started 13 games last year.
Under Franklin, Penn State is 54-38-3 ATS as a favorite.
Under Franklin, Penn State is 33-25-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Nittany Lions are 4-0 SU/1-3 ATS in conference games TY.
PSU held five of seven opponents under 300 total yards.
Five of their seven games stayed under the total.
Ohio State is 7-0 SU/2-5 ATS in last seven meetings.
Buckeyes are 7-1 SU/4-4 ATS in last eight visits to Happy Valley
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Big 18 home underdogs are 10-9 ATS
Ole Miss (-8) @ Arkansas
Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2)
Ole Miss split its four SEC games; both losses were by 3 points.
Rebels are 0-2 when they give up more than 14 points.
Rebels have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Rebels have 222 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Dart has started 25 games.
All six Ole Miss wins are by 12+ points.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 9-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Kiffin is 19-17-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 21-15-2 ATS coming off a win.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 15-20-2 ATS in SEC games.
Under is 7-0 in Ole Miss’ I-A games this season.
Arkansas (5-3, 3-2)
Arkansas scored 19 or fewer points in three of last four games.
Razorbacks were minus-8 in turnovers in their losses (+7 in wins).
Razorbacks have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Razorbacks have 67 returning starts on the offensive line;
Junior QB Green started 22 games at Boise State.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 8-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 20-8 ATS as an underdog overall.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 23-14-2 ATS in SEC games.
Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 12-11-2 ATS coming off a win.
Four of Arkansas’ last five games stayed under the total.
Home team won last five series games.
Underdogs are 12-1 ATS in last thirteen meetings.
Under is 11-7 in last eight meetings.
Ole Miss lost four of last five visits to Arkansas.
SEC home underdogs are 9-5 ATS in league games.
Minnesota (-3) @ Illinois
Minnesota (5-3, 3-2)
Minnesota won its last three games, scoring 31 ppg.
Gophers allowed 11.8 ppg in I-A wins, 19-31-27 points in losses.
Gophers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Minnesota has 70 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Brosmer started 36 games at I-AA New Hampshire.
Minnesota is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games as a road favorite.
In his career, Fleck is 14-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Fleck, Minnesota is 33-31-2 ATS in conference games.
Minnesota is +13 in turnovers in wins, minus-3 in losses.
Gophers were held under 100 YR in all three losses.
Illinois (6-2, 3-2)
Illinois is 3-2 in Big 18 games, losing 21-7 (Penn St), 38-9 (Oregon).
Illini has a +6 turnover ratio, minus-2 in league games.
Illinois has 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Illini has 77 returning starts on OL.
Junior QB Altmyer has 10 career starts.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 5-4 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Bielema is 15-14 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 18-14 ATS in conference games.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 10-8 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Under is 5-2 in Illinois’ I-A games.
Illinois won last three meetings, by 1-12-8 points.
Gophers are 6-3 SU/ATS in last nine visits to Illinois.
Over is 5-3-1 in last nine meetings.
Virginia Tech (-4) @ Syracuse
Virginia Tech (5-3, 3-1)
Tech won its last three games, by 24-21-15 points.
Hokies are 5-0 when they allow less than 26 points.
Hokies have 11 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Cavaliers have 122 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Drones started 11 games last year.
Under Pry, Tech is 4-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Pry, Hokies are 13-6 ATS in ACC games.
Under Pry, Hokies are 6-6 ATS coming off a win.
Tech is 0-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Over is 4-2 in last six Tech games.
Syracuse (5-2, 2-2)
Syracuse is 4-0 when it scores 31+ points (24-13 in losses).
Orange threw for 321+ yards in all six of its I-A games.
Syracuse has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Orangemen have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB McCord started 12 games at Ohio State last year.
Syracuse is 7-4-1 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
Average total in their I-A games is 58.2.
Syracuse is 7-13 ATS in last 20 conference games.
Orange is 2-9 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
Under is 4-1 in their last five I-A games.
Syracuse won four of last six series games.
Hokies are 1-3 SU/ATS in last four visits to the Carrier Dome.
Over is 2-1 in last three meetings.
Oregon (-14.5) @ Michigan
Oregon (8-0, 5-0)
Oregon won its last two games by a combined 73-9.
Last six games, Ducks gained 546-431-477-496-421-527 TY.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 144 returning starts on the offensive line.
Ducks poached senior QB Gabriel (49 starts at UCF/Oklahoma).
Under Lanning, Oregon is 9-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Lanning, Ducks are 20-8 ATS as a favorite.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 16-7 ATS in conference games.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 19-8 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Michigan (5-3, 3-2)
Michigan scored 24+ points in its wins, 12-17-7 in losses.
Wolverines were held under 300 TY in three of last four games.
Wolverines have 2 starters back on offense, 5 on defense, a new head coach.
New defensive coordinator Martindale has a significant NFL resume.
Michigan has 53 returning starts on offensive line (none at Michigan).
Junior QB Warren has thrown for 567 yards (3 TDs, 6 INTs).
Last five games, Michigan threw ball for 115 yards/game.
Wolverines are 20-12-3 ATS in its last 35 conference games.
Michigan is 1-3 ATS this season, in games coming off a win.
Four of their last five games went over the total.
These teams haven’t met since 2007.
Big 18 home underdogs are 10-9 ATS
Florida vs Georgia (-14.5) (@ Jacksonville)
Florida (4-3, 2-2)
Florida scored 45-24-48 points in I-A wins, 17-20-17 in losses.
Gators are 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS in their last four games.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Gators have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mertz is OFY; frosh QB Lagway has 5 TD passes, 5 INT’s.
Under Napier, Florida is 9-6 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Napier is 20-9-1 ATS as an underdog.
Florida’s losses this year are by 24-13-6 points.
Under Napier, Florida is 11-9 ATS in SEC games.
Over is 4-2 in Florida’s I-A games.
Georgia (6-1, 4-1)
Georgia won its last three games, by 18-10-15 points.
Dawgs scored 31+ points in six of their seven games.
Dawgs have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Georgia has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Beck started 14 games LY.
Georgia is 1-3 ATS as a double digit favorite this year.
Georgia is 1-4 ATS in its last five I-A games.
Georgia is 5-7 ATS in its last 12 SEC games.
Georgia is 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Under is 4-2 in their last I-A games.
Georgia won three in row, six of last seven meetings.
Favorites are 7-2 ATS in last nine series games.
Over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games.
Indiana (-8) @ Michigan State
Indiana (8-0, 5-0)
Senior QB Rourke (thumb) is expected to be back for this game.
Hoosiers are 5-0 in league games, scoring 42-42-41-56-31 points.
Indiana’s wins this year are all by 14+ points.
Hoosiers have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
Hoosiers have 119 returning starts on the offensive line.
Since 2020, Indiana is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 16-5 ATS in conference games.
Indiana is 16-9 ATS in its last 25 games coming off a win.
Five of Indiana’s last six I-A games went over the total.
Michigan State (4-4, 2-3)
Spartans lost four of their last five games.
MSU is 3-0 scoring 27+ points, 1-4 scoring less than 27.
MSU has 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Spartans have 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Chiles was a sub at Oregon State LY, playing every third series.
MSU is 3-6 ATS last nine games as a home underdog.
Last 2+ years, Spartans are 9-12-2 ATS in league games.
Spartans held last two opponents to 283-265 yards.
Michigan State is 11-9-2 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
Spartans are minus-7 in turnovers this season.
Road team won last four series games.
Indiana won 39-31/24-0 in last two visits to East Lansing.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Texas A&M (-3) @ South Carolina
Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0)
A&M won last seven I-A games, after a 23-13 loss to Notre Dame.
Aggies scored 33+ points in four of five SEC games.
Aggies have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
A&M has 112 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Weigman has 8 career starts.
A&M ran ball for 211.6 yards/game in its SEC tilts.
Aggies are 2-5 ATS last seven games as a road favorite (1-1 TY).
A&M is 8-10-3 ATS in its last 20 SEC games.
In his career, new HC Elko is 2-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Aggies are 6-9-3 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
A&M’s last three games went over the total.
South Carolina (4-3, 2-3)
Gamecocks allowed 19-6-7-9 points in wins, 36-27-27 in losses.
Carolina is +8 in turnovers in its wins, minus-4 in losses.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Gamecocks have 118 returning starts on the offensive line.
Freshman QB Sellers threw four passes in three games LY.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 4-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 16-13 ATS in SEC games.
Gamecocks are 6-3 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
South Carolina is 0-3 when it allows 20+ points.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Texas A&M won nine of last ten meetings.
Aggies are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in last five visits to Columbia.
Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Wisconsin @ Iowa (-3)
Wisconsin (5-3, 3-2)
Wisconsin won/covered three of its last four games.
Wisconsin gave up 42-38-28 points in its losses (Alabama, USC, Penn St).
Badgers have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Badgers have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Locke started three games last year.
Since 2017, Badgers are 2-5 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2017, Badgers are 3-7 ATS as an underdog anywhere.
In his career, Fickell is 16-11 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2014, Badgers are 25-20 ATS in conference games.
Wisconsin was held under 300 TY in all three losses.
Iowa (5-3, 3-2)
Iowa is 1-3 if it allows 20+ points, 4-0 if it allows less than 20.
Iowa’s five wins were all by 17+ points.
Hawkeyes have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 154 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB McNamara has 21 career starts.
Hawkeyes are 7-8-1 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite (2-2 TY).
In his career, Ferentz is 70-61-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Iowa is 31-18-1 ATS in last 50 games coming off a win.
Hawkeyes are 23-18-1 ATS in their last 42 conference games.
Over is 6-1 in their I-A games.
Iowa won three of last four meetings.
Badgers lost last two visits to Iowa City, 24-10/28-7
Last four series games stayed under the total.
USC (-2.5) @ Washington
USC (4-4, 2-4)
Trojans lost four of their first six Big 18 games.
USC’s losses are by 1-3-3-7 points.
USC has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Trojans have 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Moss won his only start 42-28 LY (bowl game).
USC is 0-7 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite (0-3 TY).
In his career, Riley is 8-20-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Trojans are 12-22 ATS in last 34 conference games.
In his career, Riley is 34-38-1 ATS in conference games.
USC is is 10-15 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
Washington (4-4, 2-3)
Washington was held to 19-18-16-17 in losses, scored 30-24-27 in wins.
Huskies are 0-4 when they allow more than 17 points.
Huskies have 2 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Huskies have 36 returning starts on offensive line, none of them here.
Senior QB Rogers started 40 games at Mississippi State.
Since 2014, Washington is 2-7 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2018, Huskies are 20-36 ATS in conference games (2-3 TY).
In his career, Fisch is 8-4 ATS as an underdog.
Washington is 4-8 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Under is 5-2 in their I-A games this season.
Washington won three of last four meetings.
Teams split their last four meetings in Seattle.
Underdogs are 8-4 ATS in last 12 series games.
Under is 9-2 in last eleven series games.
Kentucky @ Tennessee (-17.5)
Kentucky (3-5, 1-5)
Kentucky scored 31-41-20 points in wins, 6-12-13-20-10 in losses.
Kentucky is 0-4 when it gives up more than 17 points.
Wildcats have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Wildcats have 156 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Vandagriff was a backup at Georgia.
Kentucky is 0-3 SU/ATS in their last three games.
Kentucky is 6-3 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Kentucky is 15-15 ATS in last 30 SEC games.
Wildcats are 8-6 ATS last 14 games coming off a loss.
Under is 6-2 in Kentucky games this season.
Tennessee (6-1, 3-1)
Tennessee is 3-1 in SEC games (average total, 38.5).
Tennessee is giving up 13 ppg in I-A games this season.
Tennessee has 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Vols have 112 returning starts on the offensive line;
Frosh QB Iamaleava had one start LY, was MVP of Citrus Bowl.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 13-6 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Heupel is 22-14 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 13-15 ATS in SEC games.
Under is 4-0 in their SEC games this year.
Vols were held to 14 points in only loss, scored 25-23-24 in SEC wins.
Tennessee won five of last seven meetings.
Kentucky is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in last eight visits to Knoxville.
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
Underdogs are 25-8 ATS in SEC games this year.
Pitt @ SMU (-7.5)
Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0)
Pitt is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in its first six I-A games.
Panthers QB Holstein is banged up, but expected to play.
Panthers have 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Panthers have 58 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Holstein has 1,808 passing yards, with 17 TD’s, 5 INTs.
Pitt is 1-6 ATS last seven games as a road underdog.
Panthers were held to 277/217 TY last two games (Cal, Syracuse)
Pitt is 1-5 ATS in its last six ACC road games.
Panthers are 2-0 on road TY (28-27 Cincy, 34-24 UNC)
Panthers are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Under is 4-1 in their last five I-A games.
SMU (7-1, 4-0)
SMU won last five games; last three were on road.
SMU’s only loss: 18-15 at home to BYU.
Mustangs have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Mustangs have 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jennings started twice LY.
SMU is 6-1 ATS last seven games as a home favorite.
Mustangs are 18-9 ATS in last 27 games as a home favorite.
Under Lashlee, SMU is 13-8 ATS in conference games.
Mustangs are 22-26 ATS in last 48 games coming off a win.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Teams haven’t met since a bowl game in 2011.
Home favorites are 12-12 ATS in ACC conference games.
TCU @ Baylor (-3)
TCU (5-3, 3-2)
TCU is 3-1 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
TCU gave up 289-238-207 rushing yards in their losses.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Hoover started six games last year.
Under Dykes, TCU is 3-3 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Dykes is 23-22 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Dykes, TCU is 12-11-1 ATS in Big X games.
Last five games (3-2), Frogs are minus-13 in turnovers.
Over is 5-2 in their I-A games this season.
Baylor (4-4, 2-4)
Baylor won its last two games, scoring 59-38 points.
Last five games, Bears gave up 37.6 ppg.
Baylor has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Robertson started four games last year.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 10-7 ATS as home favorites.
Under Aranda, Bears are 14-11 ATS coming off a win.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 21-22 ATS in conference games.
Last 2+ years, Baylor is +4 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)
Baylor’s last five games went over the total.
TCU won four in row, 7 of last 8 meetings.
Horned Frogs are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Waco.
Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen series games.
