Cnote's College Footall Best Bets For August-Sept- Conference Recaps, Trends, Stats!

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Report - Week 2

September 5, 2014


The Pac-12 kicked off the Week 2 schedule a little early, with Arizona narrowly escaping an upset at Texas-San Antonio by a 26-23 score. It was an interesting finish, too, in case you missed it. First off, the game started off with an 85-yard touchdown pass from Arizona just 18 seconds into the game, making 'under' bettors really unhappy. But defenses did take over, and it came down to the very end. On the final play in regulation, with Arizona (-7) up 26-23 and the total at 56, an UTSA receiver tried to lateral the ball to a teammate. An Arizona player scooped it up and scored with no time left on the clock. It appeared the Wildcats might have covered, and made the total push for many, but a flag for an illegal forward pass ended the game on the spot. If the rest of the games are nailbiters for bettors, it is going to be an interesting week.

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1

Arizona State 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

California 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1

Colorado 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1

Oregon 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0

Oregon State 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

Southern California 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0

Stanford 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-0

UCLA 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

Utah 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0

Washington 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

Washington State 0-1 0-0 0-1 1-0


Washington State at Nevada (Friday - ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
The Cougars hit the road for the first time this season, and you know head coach Mike Leach was working them hard after last weekend's setback in Seattle against Rutgers. The over has cashed in eight of WaZu's past 11 non-conference games, and is 20-6-1 in their past 27 appearances on field turf. In addition, the over is 5-0 in their past five against Mountain West Conference foes. For Nevada, it's rather surprising that the under has hit in seven straight games dating back, obviously, to last season. And the under is 10-1 in their past 11 field turf games. Still, the over is 6-1 in their past seven against Pac-12 opponents, and 4-1 in their past five appearances on Friday.

Fresno State at Utah (Pac-12 Network, 3:00p.m. ET)
Fresno State was absolutely fileted last week at USC, falling 52-13 while giving up 701 yards in the process. QBs Brian Burrell, and former Duke QB Brandon Connette, split reps and are expected to do the same Saturday. It was shocking how much different this team looked than with Derek Carr under center. Utah looked solid with Travis Wilson back under center, and they pounded Idaho State 56-14 in their initial outing of the season. To make matters worse for Fresno, PK Colin McGuire left the team due to personal reasons, leaving the kicking chores to walk-on Kody Kroening. And, CB Justin Thomas returns for Utah after missing the opener due to an unspecified reason.

Southern California at Stanford (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Despite some turmoil leading up to the season opener, USC put it behind them and spanked Fresno State 52-13, looking like a focused and talented club. However, hitting the road and playing a quality opponent might be a totally different thing in Week 2. USC is just 2-11 ATS in its past 13 road games, and 0-8 ATS in the past eight road games against a team with a winning home mark. Stanford creamed UC-Davis, posting a shutout. They will obviously be challenged more against an FBS offense. The Cardinal is 4-1 ATS in the past five at home, and 36-17-1 ATS in their past 54 overall. While the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings in this series, USC is just 2-5 ATS during the same span. And if you were thinking about the total, the 'over' is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in Palo Alto, and 13-5 in the past 18 in the series overall.

Michigan State at Oregon (FOX, 6:30 p.m.)
In the second marquee matchup in the conference, Oregon hosts a good Michigan State team. Sparty is actually 3-0-1 ATS in the past four non-conference tilts, and 10-1 ATS in their past 11 on field turf. Michigan State is also an impressive 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 road games, and 19-7-1 ATS in their past 27 against a team with a winning record. On the flip side, Oregon is just 1-4 ATS in the past five home games, but 12-5 ATS in the past 17 against a team with a winning record, and 5-1 ATS in the past six against a non-conference opponent. The total might actually be the play here, as the under is 6-2 in the past eight road games for MSU, and 7-3-1 in their past 11 non-conference tilts. The under is 4-1 in Oregon's past five against a team with a winning record, but most other trends point to the over.

Arizona State at New Mexico (CBS Sports Network, 7:00 p.m.)
Arizona State paddled Weber State 45-14 in their opener, and with QB Taylor Kelly, RB D.J. Foster and WR Jaelen Strong each looking very good. The Sun Devils haven't fallen to the Lobos since 1942, and as a 24-1/2 point favorite, it looks like the streak will continue. New Mexico is expected to be without its starting QB Cole Gautsche due to a hamstring injury, and it's hard to imagine how UNM will topple AZ State after they couldn't even slay UTEP at home last weekend, falling 31-24. While the spread is pretty high here, it might be prudent to lay the points on the road given the circumstances.

Memphis at UCLA (Pac-12 Network, 10:00 p.m.)
Memphis will be making its third-ever trip to the state of California. In the previous two forays, they won. The Tigers pounded Austin Peay by a 63-0 count last weekend in Tennessee, while UCLA was fumbling its way to an uninspiring 28-20 win at Virginia. QB Brett Hundley returned to finish what he started, but he was nothing short of awful last weekend in Charlottesville, getting a potential Heisman campaign off to a shaky start. The running game was even worse, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. UCLA is heavily favored here, and they could look mighty different at home, rather than a 9am PT kick.

Oregon State at Hawaii (CBS Sports Network, 10:30 p.m.)
Hawaii played Washington down to the wire, falling just one point short in a 17-16 game. It was unimpressive for Washington, but very solid for Hawaii. Now, another Pac-12 team strolls into the islands for a battle. Hawaii is just 5-9 in 14 games against Pac-12 teams since the 2005 season, and that includes a 33-14 loss to Oregon State last season. If the Beavers are to extend its winning streak to four over the Warriors, they'll need to be much more crisp than they were last week against Portland State. OSU actually trailed at halftime, and eventually scratched out an unimpressive 29-14 win. Given the results of last week, and some question marks on offensive for both sides, the total of 59 looks to be a bit high.

Other Pac-12 teams in action
Colorado at Massachusetts (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m.)
Sacramento State at California (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m.)
Eastern Washington at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 3:05 p.m.)

 

[CNOTES]

ACC Report - Week 2

September 5, 2014

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1

Clemson 0-1 0-0 0-1 1-0

Duke 1-0 0-0 0-0-1 0-0

Florida State 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0

Georgia Tech 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0

Louisville 1-0 1-0 1-0 0-1

Miami (Fla.) 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-1

North Carolina 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-0

North Carolina State 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

Virginia 0-1 0-0 1-0 0-1

Virginia Tech 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-0

Wake Forest 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1


Pittsburgh at Boston College (Friday - ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
One thing is for certain - Joey Public loves the Panthers in this game. At a nearly two-to-one margin, the public appears to be on Pittsburgh laying the points. The Panthers throttled Delaware last week, but there is a small concern. WR Tyler Boyd (finger) dislocated a finger and left in the first half. It appears he is expected to play, but if he is limited, that would be a major playmaker down for Pitt. BC has a stable of running backs to compete, but obviously they'll need to keep it close or have the lead to have those backs be very useful. They rolled up 338 rushing yards against Massachusetts last week in a 30-7 win and cover.

Georgia Tech at Tulane (ESPNews, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Georgia Tech stumbled out of the chute early against Wofford last weekend, but eventually got it together and doubled up the Terriers 38-19, using a balanced offensive attack. It's something we haven't seen in recent years in Atlanta, as the Ramblin' Wreck has been almost exclusively all about the run. QB Justin Thomas made his first career starts, and tossed a pair of touchdowns. Tulane never trailed in regulation at Tulsa, and they did not trail in the first overtime, either. A late missed field goal from just 21 yards away with 1:46 left in regulation was a bitter pill to swallow for bettors getting 6-1/2 points. This is the first meeting in this series since 1982.

Old Dominion at N.C. State (ESPN3, 6:00p.m. ET)
Old Dominion wasn't that impressive in their opening game 41-28 win over Tidewater rival Hampton last week. Speaking of not that impressive, I attended the Georgia Southern-NC State game with my two boys, and saw first hand that the Wolfpack has plenty of issues on both sides of the ball. They scratched out a 24-23 lead, and actually never held the lead until 1:37 remaining in the game. Old Dominion is more than a two-touchdown underdog in this one, and with QB Taylor Heinicke, RB Gerard Johnson and WR Zach Pascal in a high-octane offense, it will be interesting to see if the Monarchs can do what Georgia Southern was unable to do - finish off an upset bid at Carter-Finley Stadium. The way NC State played in Week 1, they have no business being favored by 16 points against anyone.

Duke at Troy (ESPN3, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The hand wringers were out in full force when LB Kelby Brown (knee) went down with a season-ending injury. How will Duke recovery? Well, granted, they only played FCS foe Elon in the first game, but they thumped them 52-13. The defensive replacements looked good, and QB Anthony Boone was efficient, as was WR Jamison Crowder. Troy was smoked 48-10 by UAB last weekend on the road, and they return home for their home opener. They are 22-1 in home openers under head coach Larry Blakeney, but find themselves a decisive 19-point dog at home. If anything, this one should be a high-scoring affair. Last season Duke nipped Troy 38-31 at Wallace Wade Stadium in September. Defense doesn't exactly rule the day for either side.

San Diego State at North Carolina (ESPNews, 8:00 p.m.)
It took a while for North Carolina to shake free of FCS foe Liberty last weekend, and they actually trailed 22-21 at one point. The Tar Heels racked up 208 yards on the ground and 235 yards through the air while posting 56 total points. Liberty was able to move the ball on UNC, and that has to be a concern for head coach Larry Fedora. The Aztecs of San Diego State posted 38 points with 194 rushing yards and 205 passing yards in a 38-7 win over Northern Arizona, so they can move the ball with aplomb. If UNC hasn't shored up its defense from last week, this won could be a high-scoring game.

Virginia Tech at Ohio State (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Last week we had a pair of marquee games in the ACC. This weekend there is really just one standout game, and this is it. Virginia Tech was sluggish in a 34-9 win against William & Mary last week, but RB Shai McKenzie shined with 109 rushing yards and a pair of scores to earn ACC rookie of the week honors. Ohio State took Navy's best punch, picked themselves up and then pulled away from the Middies in the second half. Not only did the Buckeyes win 34-17, but they covered when it appeared there was no way that was happening in the first half. Ohio State has won 25 straight regular season games, and they haven't lost a home opener since 1978. Interestingly, this is Virginia Tech's first-ever game against a Big Ten team in a regular season matchup.

Other ACC teams in action
South Carolina State at Clemson (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m.)
Richmond at Virginia (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
Gardner-Webb at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 6:30 p.m.)
Florida A&M at Miami, Fla. (ESPN3, 7:00 p.m.)
Murray State at Louisville (ESPN3, 7:00 p.m.)
The Citadel at Florida State (ACC Network, 7:30 p.m.)

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten Report - Week 2

September 3, 2014


GAME OF THE WEEK

Michigan State (+12) @ Oregon - 6:30 PM EST
There was a moment when the Spartans' season flashed before their eyes as QB Connor Cook took a scary hit to the knee in the 1st half against FCS Jacksonville State. Luckily, Cook returned unscathed and finished 12-of-13 passing for 285 yards and 3 TD in the 45-7 drubbing over the Gamecocks. MSU coasted to a victory behind Cook, 211 rush yards, and a dominating defensive performance. The degree of difficulty goes up dramatically this week at Oregon, the fourth-ranked team in the nation and one of the toughest venues to play in. Oregon had an easy victory in week one over FCS South Dakota. Heisman candidate QB Marcus Mariota led the way with 267 pass yards, 43 rush yards, and four total TD's in the 62-13 win. The Ducks rushed for 293 yards on 7.7 YPC en route to a +303 yard advantage over the outmatched Coyotes. It will be a true matchup of strength vs. strength on Saturday as Oregon's fast-paced offense takes on an MSU defense that has ranked at or near the top of the nation over the past few seasons. Oregon depends on its rushing attack averaged 274 YPG on 6.3 YPC last year, while MSU allowed just 86 rush YPG on 2.8 YPC. MSU's defense hasn't allowed an opponent to reach exceed 28 points since 2011. If they can hold Oregon to 30 points or less, they have a great shot at covering considering that Oregon is just 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS when scoring fewer than 30 points since the beginning of the 2009 season. The Ducks are just 6-13-1 ATS in the last 20 at home as a favorite of 10 points or more. They are also 0-7 ATS their last seven as a home favorite between 10 and 20 points. Michigan State is 3-1 since 2006 as an underdog of 10 points or more. They are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 regular season road games against non-Big Ten teams.

BEST OF THE REST

Ohio State (-11) vs. Virginia Tech - 8:00 PM EST
The J.T. Barrett era in Buckeye land didn't exactly get off to a flying start against Navy last week. OSU was losing 14-13 midway through the third quarter before a 80-yard touchdown pass from Barrett to WR Devin Smith gave OSU the lead for good. Navy is no pushover, and we give Barrett and co. credit for getting through a rough start and coming alive down the stretch, giving the Buckeyes a comfortable 17-point win. Navy's vaunted triple-option rushing attack gave OSU's defense some trouble, tallying 370 rush yards on 5.9 YPC, giving up a number of big plays. The Bucks buckled down in the second half, forcing and returning a fumble for a TD in the third quarter and allowing just 36 rush yards in the 4th quarter. OSU now takes a step up in competition as they host the Hokies of Virginia Tech this Saturday. VA Tech had a ho-hum 34-9 victory over FCS William & Mary last week. The Hokies had +295 yards, +12 first downs, and didn't allow the Tribe to reach the end zone. New QB Michael Brewer completed 23-of-30 passes for 251 yards and freshman RB Shai McKenzie had 109 rush yards on just nine attempts. A stout defense has always been a staple in Blacksburg under head coach Frank Beamer and this year should be no different, presenting the first difficult task for OSU's QB Barrett. The redshirt freshman will have to shake off the jitters as this game will be in prime time broadcasted by ESPN. The good news is that OSU is playing at the Horseshoe, where the Bucks are 15-0 under Urban Meyer. They are also 15-1 SU and 11-5 ATS in the last 16 home games against non-conference foes. VA Tech has been a double-digit underdog just six times since 2000 and is 4-2 ATS in those situations. The Hokies are just 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 road games against non-conference opponents. This is the first ever meeting between these two schools.

Michigan (+3.5) at Notre Dame - 7:30 PM EST
The Wolverines were clearly ready for their "rematch" with Appalachian State after the famous loss to the FCS program in 2007. Michigan jumped to a 35-0 halftime lead behind three TD passes to WR Devin Funchess. QB Gardner finished 13-of-14 for 173 yards and 3 TD while RB's Green and Smith combined for 285 rush yards on 22 carries and three touchdowns. Sure, it was against an FCS opponent, but it was a promising start for a team that has struggled with offensive consistency over the past few seasons. This week they travel to South Bend for a meeting with rival Notre Dame. The Irish got QB Everett Golson back from his 2013 suspension and his presence cannot be understated. Golson led the Irish to the 2012 BCS championship and is 11-1 overall as a starter. He showed his worth last week with 295 pass yards, 41 rush yards, and 5 total TD in the 48-17 win over Rice. Notre Dame will be without three preseason starters for this matchup after dismissals to DT Ishaq Williams, WR DaVaris Daniels, and CB KeiVarae Russell, among others, for an academic scandal. Michigan will get starting center Graham Glasglow back this week after he served his suspension sitting out against Appalachian State. Motivation will not be lacking for either side here as this is the final scheduled meeting between the two rivals (have met every year since 2002 and 28 times since 1980). Michigan is 6-2 SU & ATS in the last eight meetings with the Golden Domers, but both of the losses were in South Bend. The Wolverines are just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS the last two years against ranked opponents - the one SU win was at home against Notre Dame last year. The underdog has won seven of the last 10 meetings outright.

Penn State (-14) vs. Akron - 12:00 PM EST
The James Franklin era got started off with a bang as PSU survived Central Florida in Ireland last week. In a game that went back-and-forth, UCF took a lead with 1:13 remaining on a TD run by QB Justin Holman. PSU QB Hackenberg took the Nittany Lions down the field and put them in position for a 36-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. It would've been a devastating loss for PSU considering they dominated the stat book. PSU had a +265 yard advantage and +13 first downs. UCF's stout defense was able to hold PSU to just 57 yards on 2.0 YPC. Hackenberg was able to lead the way for PSU as he completed 32-of-47 passes for 454 yards. The defense also had a great day, holding UCF to just 24 rush yards on 29 carries (0.8 YPC). PSU had a difficult travel schedule as they return from Ireland (10+ hour flight) to prepare for the Zips of Akron. Akron finished just 5-7 last year, but returned nearly every key position player and have been tabbed as a contender for the MAC title this season. They got off to a promising start last week in a 41-0 win over FCS Howard. Talented Jr. QB Pohl tossed for 304 yards and 4 scores and the defense held Howard to just 216 total yards and 3-of-18 on 3rd down. James Franklin will have to fight off jet-lag and avoid a letdown performance here because this version of Akron has enough talent to pull off an upset. The Zips are 0-4 all-time against PSU, including a 31-7 loss the last time here (2009). They've dropped 20 straight road openers by an average of 28 PPG and they are 0-17 since 1998 against Big Ten squads. PSU is just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 home games as a double-digit favorite against non-conference opponents.

Iowa (-17) vs. Ball State - 3:30 PM EST
The Hawkeyes knew they were going to get a fight against Northern Iowa; but for a team that has aspirations of a Big Ten West title, getting outgained by an FCS program and barely holding them off is a bit concerning. Still, a win's a win and Iowa did a lot of things right. QB Rudocks was 31-of-41 for 250 yards with 2 scores and 0 INT, the stable of RB's pounded for 151 yards on 4.2 YPC, and the defense held the Panthers to just 25 rush yards and 13 total first downs. The renovated defense will have to work on limiting the big plays after UNI QB Kollmorgen (380 pass yards) hooked up with WR Johnson (205 rec. yards) for a couple of big gains. Next up is a battle with MAC member Ball State. BSU finished 10-3 last year but lost top QB Wenning (35 TD, 7 INT in 2013) and WR Snead (106 rec, 15 TD) so the offense that averaged 38.5 PPG in 2013 is expected to take a bit of a step back. The Cards looked good last week, albeit against FCS Colgate, so take it with a grain of salt. BSU tallied 514 yards and 29 first downs in the 30-10 win. RB's Banks and Edwards combined for 243 rush yards on 35 carries, helping ease along QB Ozzie Mann who made his first career start. Iowa and BSU have met twice previously. The Cardinals have dropped both prior meetings (2005 & 2010) by a combined score of 101-0. Ball State is 2-16 SU in its last 18 road openers including 5 straight by an average of 16 PPG. They are 7-3 ATS since 2006 against Big Ten schools, including three SU wins (all against Indiana). Iowa is just 7-20 ATS since 2006 as a favorite of 14 points or more. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 SU but 0-4 ATS the last four games preceding their annual rivalry matchup with Iowa State.

Maryland (-12.5) at South Florida - 3:30 PM EST
There isn't too much to be learned about Maryland from a 52-7 blowout of James Madison last week, though Maryland will surely be looking for more efficiency from its passing attack after C.J. Brown completed just 11 of 24 attempts. He offset his poor passing performance with three rushing scores as the Terps gashed the Dukes for 285 rushing yards. WR's Stefon Diggs and Deon Long returned to the field for the first times since each suffered a season ending injury early in 2013. They combined for seven receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown (Diggs also returned a kickoff for 59 yards). Defensively the Terps forced three turnovers and held JMU to just 4-for-19 on 3rd down. Next up they travel to Tampa for their first road game of the year at South Florida. USF just just 5-19 over the past two seasons, but there was reason for optimism considering the Bulls return 10 starters on offense. The Bulls didn't exactly look much improved in their debut against FCS Western Carolina last week. Western Carolina jumped out to a 14-3 lead before USF woke up (won 36-31). Western Carolina had +14 first downs and tallied 454 yards against USF, holding the TOP advantage by +15 minutes. USF QB White completed just 9-of-26 passes for 181 yards and an INT. Freshman RB Marlon Mack burst onto the scene with 275 rush yards (11.4 YPC) and 4 TD. Maryland is just 2-4 SU & ATS in the last six non-conference road games. The Terps are just 4-8 ATS in the last 12 as a double-digit road favorite (first time since 2008). The Bulls are 12-6 ATS in the last 18 as a double-digit underdog, including 4-2 ATS in 2013.

Minnesota (-16) vs. Middle Tennessee State - 3:30 PM EST
The Gophers took their time getting started offensively against FCS Eastern Illinois last week, scoring just before halftime to take a 14-0 lead against the Panthers. They ended up winning 42-20, but the Gophers were outgained by 71 yards and had 9 fewer first downs. Many still question the passing ability of QB Leidner after a 9-of-17, 144 yard performance against EIU. Leidner did rush for two scores, but it doesn't appear that he'll put much fear into opposing secondaries this season. Leidner's shortcomings in the passing game allow opposing defenses to load the box against Minnesota's rushing attack - the strength of this team. As a result, the Gophers had just 182 rush yards on 40 carries (4.5 YPC) - that includes a 42-yard TD scamper by RB Edwards. Eastern Illinois exposed some flaws, and Middle Tennessee State will try to take advantage this weekend. MTSU put up 61 points in the victory over FCS Savannah State last week, scoring six rush TD, one pass TD, one defensive TD, and one special teams TD. We're not putting too much stock in that performance considering Savannah State is one of the worst FCS programs. Still, it was a promising start for Blue Raiders QB Grammer, who completed 15-of-17 passes for 250 yards and 1 TD in his starting debut. MTSU has some familiarity with the Big Ten, losing to Minnesota by just seven points in 2010, and Purdue by just 3 points in 2011. Eleven of MTSU's last 15 road openers have come against Big Five conference schools. The Raiders are an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in those 11 games. The Gophers are 13-7 ATS in the last 20 games as a favorite of 14 points or more - though they're on an 0-4 run at home in that situation.

Northwestern (-7) vs. Northern Illinois - 3:30 PM EST
After a disastrous end to last season and some tumultuous news from training camp this offseason, the nightmare continued for Northwestern in a seven-point loss to Cal to kick off the 2014 season. A loss to a team coming off a 1-11 campaign isn't a step in the right direction for the Wildcats and now there's a hint of desperation in the Evanston air. Northwestern QB Siemian was an inefficient 23-of-44 for 229 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT and the rushing attacked mustered just 108 yards on 36 carries (3.0 YPC). The defense did all it could to hold a potent Cal offense, but the Bears still gained 414 yards and achieved 23 first downs. Northern Illinois has gone an impressive 46-10 over the last four seasons, winning two bowl games and even earning an invite to the 2012 Orange Bowl. Star QB Lynch is gone, but the Huskies still return 14 starters, including nine on offense. They got off to a strong start with a 55-3 win over Presbyterian. NIU outgained the FCS foe by a staggering 508 yards and had +30 more first downs. The Huskies have one of the better rushing attacks in the nation and Northwestern will have its hands full this weekend. The Wildcats are on a 0-5 SU run at home and 0-7 ATS run at home. They are on an extended run of 17-34 ATS as a home favorite. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog. NIU has won four of the last seven against the Big Ten and they are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 against the B1G.

Illinois (-6) vs. Western Kentucky - 12:00 PM EST
Illinois definitely made it interesting against FCS Youngstown State last Saturday. The Illini looked absolutely abysmal for the first three-and-a-half quarters before a TD with 8:50 remaining gave them the advantage for good. The Illini were outgained, had fewer first downs, and had 20 fewer minutes TOP. The good news for Illinois is that new starting QB Wes Lunt looked very good in his debut. Lunt completed 24-of-38 passes for 285 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT. The bad news is that Illinois gained just 78 rush yards on 3.5 YPC and the defense allowed 203 rush yards. There's still a lot of work to do before Illinois is even considered as a contender in the Big Ten West. If they play like they did last week against Western Kentucky this week, they'll be ripe for an upset. WKU looked very good in its debut against Bowling Green last week. BGU was tabbed to be one of the better teams in the MAC this season and the Hilltoppers absolutely destroyed them. WKU jumped out to a 38-10 lead and coasted to a 59-31 victory. The 'Toppers gained 708 total yards and 40 first downs. QB Doughty was extremely efficient, completing 46-of-56 passes for 569 yards with six TD's and 0 INT. WKU allowed 466 yards on defense, but if they can replicate that offensive performance like the one against Bowling Green, the Illini will have problems keeping pace. Illinois is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite. Western Kentucky is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games.

Purdue (-3) vs. Central Michigan - 12:00 PM EST
The Boilermakers quickly matched their win total from 2013 with a win over Western Michigan last week. The 43 points scored exceeded any Purdue total from 2013 - it also represented 24% of 2013's point total. QB Etling tossed for 181 yards on 50% completions with 2 TD and 0 INT. RB's Mostert and Hunt combined for 224 yards on 37 carries and 2 TD. There are some causes for concern starting with the defense. The Boilers allowed 456 yards and 24 first downs to Western Michigan - a middle-of-the-pack MAC offense. WMU RB Franklin rushed for 163 yards and 3 scores, repeatedly gashing this Purdue defensive front. The Boilers came away with a W, and ow they've got a chance to build a little momentum and confidence against another directional Michigan. Central Michigan opened its season with a narrow victory against FCS Chattanooga. Chattanooga actually had a 16-0 lead before CMU went on a 20-0 run to close it out. It wasn't a sharp performance by any means, but the Chippewas churned out 150 rush yards and had an efficient day from QB Rush (15-of-26 for 173 yards and 2 TD) and that was enough to get the W. Central Michigan is 3-19 in its last 22 against the Big Ten - playing at least one school every season. They are on a 6-3 ATS run against Big Ten schools, earning 3 SU wins in the process (Indiana in 2008, Michigan State in 2009, and Iowa in 2012). Purdue is just 3-9 ATS in the last 12 home games.

Nebraska vs. McNeese State - 12:00 PM EST
Nebraska put together the most complete performance of any Big Ten team in week one. Florida Atlantic was overmatched in almost every way as the Huskers dominated their way to a 55-7 win. The Huskers gained 784 yards of offense and achieved 35 first downs. They rumbled for 498 rush yards and five rushing touchdowns behind 232 rush yards by star RB Abdullah. QB Armstrong Jr. added 271 pass yards and two scores. Defensively they held the Owls to just 200 yards and 13 first downs. FAU QB's Johnson and Hankerson struggled against this Huskers pass defense, completing just 11-of-30 passes for 95 yards. This week they get McNeese State, who finished 10-3 last year and has upset an FBS school in each of the past two seasons (Middle Tennessee State in 2012 and South Florida in 2013).

Wisconsin vs. Western Illinois - 12:00 PM EST
The loss to LSU won't affect Wisconsin's ability to win the conference, but the complete letdown in the 2nd half and the utter lack of a passing attack certainly presented some red flags. Wisconsin built a 24-3 lead and appeared to be in complete control of the game. LSU mounted a comeback in the 2nd half and took away Wisconsin's rushing attack. QB McEvoy couldn't capitalize as he finished just 8-of-24 for 50 yards and 2 2nd half INT's. Coach Gary Anderson has stated that backup QB Stave (2013's starter) has some issues and is not available to play, so McEvoy's job is not in jeopardy at the moment. Star RB Gordon finished with 140 rush yards, but had just four attempts in the 2nd half - after the game the coaches cited a hip injury being the reason for that. Gordon won't miss any time, but the Badgers need to put together more of a passing attack if they want to compete for a Big Ten title. This week they get a refresher against FCS Western Illinois at Camp Randall, where they've won 18 straight home openers by an average of 20 PPG.

Rutgers vs. Howard - 12:00 PM EST
The Scarlet Knights made a memorable debut of their 2013 season, going across the country and winning at Washington State, 41-38. Rutgers scored a TD with 3:24 left to take the lead, then held off WSU for the final minutes to seal the victory. QB Nova completed 16-of-27 passes for 281 yards and two scores (1 INT) while RB James churned out 173 rush yards and 3 scores. Defensively they took their lumps against Mike Leach's aerial attack as WSU completed 40-of-56 passes for 532 yards and five scores. Credit the Knights for winning the shootout and starting off their inaugural season in the B1G with a win. This week they get FCS Howard at home. Howard was shut-out by Akron last week, 41-0.

Indiana - Bye Week
Indiana has one of the better offensive line units in the nation and they used it to perfection last week against FCS Indiana State. The Hoosiers ran the ball 69 times for 455 yards (6.6 YPC) and four scores. RB's Coleman and Roberts combined for 376 of those rush yards and QB Sudfeld only had to attempt 18 passes. If Indiana has successfully instilled a rushing presence into its offensive arsenal - they could be a serious sleeper in the Big Ten. The defense also had a promising effort, albeit against an FCS program, as it allowed just 170 total yards and 10 first downs. They get a bye week before traveling to Bowling Green next week.

 

[CNOTES]

Michigan State at Oregon

September 5, 2014


Matchup: Michigan State at Oregon
Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
Date: Saturday, Sept. 6, 2014
Time/TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Line: Oregon -12, Over/Under 56

The marquee matchup of Week 2 will take place at Autzen Stadium in Eugene where Oregon (1-0 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) will play host to Michigan State. This is a great opportunity for both schools to get a resume-building victory, while the loser will have plenty of time to recover and can still get to the College Football Playoff.

As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Oregon favored by 12 or 12.5 with a total of 56. Gamblers can take the Spartans on the money line for a +350 return (risk $100 to win $350).

Mark Helfrich's team rolled to a 62-13 season-opening win over South Dakota last week, but the Ducks failed to cover the enormous 52-point spread. The 75 combined points went 'over' the 71.5-point total with 9:21 remaining.

Marcus Mariota completed 14-of-20 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. The Heisman Trophy candidate ran six times for 43 yards and another score. Byron Marshall had eight carries for 90 yards while also catching eight balls for 132 yards and a pair of TDs. Royce Freeman, the Ducks' top recruit in the 2014 class, had 10 carries for 75 yards and a pair of TDs, including a 26-yard TD scamper midway through the second quarter.

Michigan State (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) cruised past Jacksonville St. by a 45-7 count as a 34-point home 'chalk' in its opener last Friday (note the extra day of rest that should compensate for the day of travel). Connor Cook connected on 12-of-13 throws for 285 yards and three TDs without an interception. Nick Hill rushed for a pair of scores and Tony Lippett finished with four catches for 167 yards and two TDs.

This is the 15th straight game in which Oregon has been favored by a double-digit margin. The Ducks cashed tickets at an 8-5 ATS clip last season.

Michigan St. owns a 10-6 spread record as a road underdog during Mark Dantonio's eight-year tenure. The last time the Spartans were double-digit 'dogs was at Notre Dame in 2009, when they covered the number in a nail-biting 33-30 loss to the Fighting Irish as 10-point puppies. Sparty owns a 2-1 ATS ledger in three games as a double-digit 'dog on Dantonio's watch.

Whether at home or on the road or at a neutral site, Michigan St. has taken the cash in eight consecutive underdog situations, winning outright in five of those spots. Going back to October of 2011, the Spartans are 10-1 ATS with six outright victories in their last 11 games as 'dogs.

Both teams will play without a pair of expected starters. Oregon's Bralon Addison, who had 61 receptions for 890 yards and seven TDs, remains out after tearing his ACL in the spring. Addison was a second-team All Pac-12 selection last year. Another All Pac-12 second-teamer, OT Tyler Johnstone, was lost to a season-ending ACL tear in August.

Sparty won't have nose tackle Damon Knox or OG Connor Kruse.

Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Cook has a 26/7 career TD-INT ratio.

-- Baylor WR Levi Norwood is out for at least three weeks after suffering a wrist injury that will require surgery. Norwood, who had 47 receptions for 733 yards and eight TDs in 2013, hopes to return for the Bears' next tough game -- at Texas on Oct. 4. Baylor will also be without Antwan Goodley (quad) this week against Northwestern St. Goodley had a team-high 71 catches for 1,339 yards and 13 TDs last season.

-- Most spots have South Carolina favored by 16.5 over East Carolina. The Gamecocks are 26-20 ATS as home favorites during Steve Spurrier's tenure, while the Pirates are 5-10 ATS as road underdogs under Ruffin McNeill.

-- East Carolina QB Shane Carden has a 59/20 career TD-INT ratio. He's poised to overtake David Garrard as ECU's all-time leader in passing yards later this year. Carden has a big-time WR in Justin Hardy, who is already the Pirates' all-time leader in receiving yards. This combo will pose another tough challenge for a South Carolina secondary that got torched by Texas A&M last week.

-- A pair of former Gator QBs led their new teams to victories last weekend. Boston College's Tyler Murphy completed 17-of-24 passes for 173 yards with one TD and one interception. He also rushed 13 times for 118 yards and one score in the Eagles' 30-7 win at Massachusetts as 17-point road favorites. Jacoby Brissett, who sat out last season after transferring from Florida, sparked North Carolina St. to a 24-23 come-from-behind win over Ga. Southern. Brissett connected on 28-of-40 throws for 291 yards with a 3/1 TD-INT ratio.

-- One of the biggest stars of Week 1 was Rutgers RB Paul James, who looked like a beast in the Scarlet Knights' 41-38 win at Washington St. James produced 173 rushing yards and three TDs on 29 totes in what was a huge win for Kyle Flood's team.

-- Western Kentucky QB Brandon Doughty was a turnover machine in a blowout loss at Tennessee last year. But in last week's 59-31 win over Bowling Green, Doughty completed 46-of-56 passes for 569 yards and six TDs without a pick.

-- Speaking of the Falcons, they won't have QB Matt Johnson for the rest of the season after he sustained a hip injury in the loss. Johnson threw for 3,467 yards with a 25/7 TD-INT ratio while leading Bowling Green to 10 wins in 2013.

-- As if Northwestern hadn't caught enough bad breaks over the last 12 months, piss-poor news struck again Thursday when Tony Jones was declared 'out' of Saturday's home game vs. No. Illinois. Jones had a team-high 55 receptions last season and had team-bests in catches (seven) and yards (64) in last week's 31-24 home loss to California. The Wildcats are already without their other best WR Christian Jones, who tore his ACL in August.

 

[Bad_Cat]

do you have any play or lean with either unr or wazzu?

bol

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------o - 0

Double Plays--------------------------2 - 0

Triple Plays---------------------------0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT.....................................0 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

10 - 8......................................*****

6 - 3.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

4 - 3 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 1 ....................................LIGHTS OUT


Friday, September 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -5.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Boston College - Under 49.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY


Washington State - 10:30 PM ET Washington State -3 500 *****

Nevada - Over 67 500 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Top Action


September 5, 2014


USC TROJANS (1-0) at STANFORD CARDINAL (1-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Stanford -3 (-105) & 54
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line & Total: Cardinal -4 & 51

After two dominating victories in their season openers against inferior opponents, No. 14 USC and No. 13 Stanford look to start the Pac-12 conference season with a win on Saturday.

The Trojans offense at times had its struggles last season, but if Week 1 was any indication of how this unit will perform this season, look out. QB Cody Kessler threw for 394 yards and four touchdowns in a 52-13 win over Fresno State, and appears poised for a big season. USC has lost the past two times the teams have met in Palo Alto, but it did cover the spread in the 2012 defeat. Last season, the teams played a very competitive game in southern California, with the Trojans winning by field goal, 20-17. Kessler came up big in that victory, throwing for 288 yards and one touchdown. The Cardinal were able to run the ball very efficiently in that loss though, gaining 210 yards on 35 carries (6.0 YPC), but were unable to get the job done through the air (127 passing yards).

Quarterback Kevin Hogan was very efficient in last week’s 45-0 season opening victory against UC Davis (12-of-16, 204 yards), and he will need that type of performance to help Stanford get payback for last season’s loss. Last year, RB Tyler Gaffney rushed for 158 yards in the matchup, but he is no longer with the team. If there was one negative for the Cardinal in Week 1, it was that the team averaged only 4.7 rushing yards per carry, something that could hurt them in this matchup.

The loss last season snapped a four-game winning streak against USC, which was the longest in school history for Stanford. Although home teams that had a poor passing defense last season (58% comp. pct. or worse) with five returning offensive starters are 23-55 ATS (30%) in the past 10 seasons, home favorites coming off a win by 35+ points facing an opponent after playing a game with 60+ total points scored are 149-84 ATS (64%).

USC has a few bumps and bruises with RB Tre Madden (toe) doubtful to play on Saturday and WR Steven Mitchell, OL Khaliel Rodgers, OG Jordan Simmons and OL Damien Mama all questionable with knee injuries, but Stanford will be without LBs Kevin Palma and Joe Hemschoot, who have undisclosed injuries.

The Steve Sarkisian era got off to a fast start at USC, as the team resembled the high-scoring offenses of the mid-2000’s with 701 total yards (424 passing, 277 rushing). With Kessler having another year under his belt, he is running the offense at a different level. Top WR Nelson Agholor (5 catches, 57 yards, 2 TD) is one of the elite receivers in the country, and with much of the defensive attention focused on him, it was another receiver that emerged as a potential star for the Trojans. JuJu Smith had four catches for 123 yards in his first career game. Wearing the same number that Marqise Lee wore, Smith displayed *much of the same big-play ability of the former Trojans star. With defenses focusing on Agoholor, Smith is going to have a lot of one-on-one matchups down the middle of the field.

The passing game of the Trojans could be one of the best in the country this season, but the ground game of USC has a chance to be equally as good. RB Javorius Allen (22 rush, 123 yards, 1 TD) is a big power running back that has the ability to wear out an opponent. His ability to run the ball is going to make the Trojans offense nearly impossible to game-plan for.

The defense of the Trojans was equally as impressive in the season opener, intercepting the Bulldogs four times while putting constant pressure on the Fresno State quarterbacks. S Gerald Bowman (five tackles, 1 INT) was the leader in a deep and talented secondary on Saturday. USC is an extremely fast defense that loves to fly to the ball. However, it will be tested differently on Saturday against a smash-mouth style of offense.

Stanford is coming into this game off a big Week 1 against UC Davis. In that shutout victory, QB Kevin Hogan played very efficiently, but versus USC he will have to take some more chances down field to keep the Trojans defenders from stacking the box. WR Ty Montgomery is one of the elite playmakers in all of college football. In the opener, he had a 44-yard touchdown catch, as well as a 67-yard punt return. He has become a much more polished receiver the past two seasons, and now is a much better route runner.

At the running back position, the Cardinal have another explosive player in RB Barry Sanders Jr. who had 51 yards on nine touches last week, which matched his nine touches all of last season (73 yards). The knock on the 5-foot-10, 192-pound Sanders is that he does not have the size and stature to be a 30-carry workhorse, but because of his great speed, Sanders does have a chance to score any time he touches the ball. Against USC, look for Stanford to move him around on the field, trying to line him up in the slot against a linebacker. The Cardinal have the explosive offensive players, and they will need to make those types of plays in this game.

However, the strength of the team, just like the past few seasons, is the defense. In Week 1, the unit allowed only 115 yards and pitched a shutout. LB A.J. Tarpley led the team with six tackles against UC Davis, but this defense is the type of unit where a player may not stand out a lot. The Cardinal fly to the ball on the defense, and play very fundamental and sound football. They are very disciplined, and that will be a big thing to watch in this game. If they stay in their lanes and remain focused on their assignments, the Cardinal should be able to make things difficult for USC's offense.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (1-0) at OREGON DUCKS (1-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon -12 & 56.5
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line & Total: Ducks -11 & 56

The marquee game of the week takes place in Eugene on Saturday as No. 3 Oregon plays host to No. 7 Michigan State.

The defending Rose Bowl champion Spartans got the 2014 season started off by defeating Jacksonville State, 45-7. Despite taking a big hit below his knee, Spartans QB Connor Cook (12-of-13, 285 yards, 3 TD) was still able to perform at a high level. Michigan State has been known as more of a physical style of team, but is really emerging as a great passing team too. The Spartans have not beaten a Top 25 on the road since defeating Michigan in 2010 (34-17), and will face a team in Oregon that has not lost a home non-conference game since Sept. 20, 2008 to Boise State.

The Ducks once again have one of the most explosive offenses in all of the country, and they showed the big-play ability in a 62-13 Week 1 victory against South Dakota. Heisman trophy candidate QB Marcus Mariota produced 310 total yards of offense and four touchdowns, showing that he is still as explosive as player in college football. Mariota has the ability to beat teams with his arm, but also his legs. In the Oregon spread offense, he is the perfect guy to have leading the charge. Oregon can score in any way, as Charles Nelson took back a punt for a 50-yard touchdown last week.

With the new playoff system in effect for college football, this is the type of game that both teams need to win in order to show the people making the decisions that they deserve to be in the running. Although Mark Dantonio is 21-6 ATS (78%) on the road after an SU win since taking over the Michigan State program, recent history shows that favorites of 10.5 to 21 points coming off a season in which they won 80% of their games are 45-16 ATS (74%), including 35-11 ATS (76%) in non-conference tilts.

Both teams should have their full rosters for this showdown, as RB Jeremy Langford (ankle), WR Macgarrett Kings Jr. (ankle) and OG Travis Jackson (back) are all probable to play. The same goes for Oregon star DB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who injured his ankle last week, but has been upgraded to probable.

The Spartans experienced success against the Pac-12 last season, when they won the Rose Bowl against Stanford. However, the Cardinal are similar to the Big Ten style of football which tries to grind out yards on the ground. Oregon's fast-paced offense is different, and the MSU offense must be ready to put up some points to get the win. The passing game has found its star in WR Tony Lippett, who had four catches for 167 yards and two touchdowns last week. Lippett is not the biggest receiver at 185 pounds, but has the height (6-foot-3) to go up and win the jump-ball battle.

However, what makes him so dangerous is his speed, running as fast as any receiver in the country, and is now the focal point of the Spartans passing game. The Oregon secondary is full of guys that can run with Lippett, but his height advantage will allow Cook to take some chances throwing into coverage. The Spartans have one of the best running backs in the country too in RB Jeremy Langford. While he did not put up big numbers in Week 1 with 57 yards on 13 carries, much of that was because of the big lead and getting experience for other players on the team.

The best way to keep an explosive offense like the Ducks from putting up numbers is by keeping their offense on the sideline, so look for the Spartans to rely on the legs of Langford to chew up the clock. Per usual, the strength of the MSU team is the defense, which is very similar to Stanford, which has had major success against Oregon in the past two seasons.

DE Shilique Calhoun (two tackles and one sack last week) is a relentless pass rusher, but he will be tested in this game. The Spartans are a physical unit, but the Ducks have a lot of guys that have the speed to break it to the outside, and Calhoun will play a big role in not allowing that to happen. CB Darian Hicks is a young ball hawk that is trying to help fill the void left by Darqueze Dennard, and Hicks got off to a nice start in Week 1 with an interception. The Spartans once again have a strong secondary, but you can’t imitate the speed of the Oregon offense in practice.

Mariota is one the top Heisman candidates in the country, and rightfully so after a season of 4,380 total yards and 40 total touchdowns.

Every season the Ducks seem to have a new guy emerge in the backfield, and this season it appears to be RB Byron Marshall, who rushed 13 times for 90 yards in the opener, and also added eight catches for 138 yards and two touchdowns. Marshall is a blur when running the ball. At 205 pounds, he also has the size and power to run up the middle. Another guy in the backfield for the Ducks is Royce Freeman who had 75 yards and two touchdowns in his first career game. At 230 pounds, Freeman is built like former Ducks RB LeGarrette Blount. The Ducks have been missing that power element to its rushing attack, but appear to now have the lethal combination of speed and power.

While the defense does not get much of the talk in Eugene, there are plenty of playmakers on that side of the ball. The defense is similar to the offense in the sense that it is built on its ability to fly to the ball. It is undersized at a few positions, but everyone on the field for the Oregon defense can run. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu is a true playmaker both in coverage and against the run. He will be put on Lippett a lot of this matchup, and that battle could play a huge role in what team is able to get the victory.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (1-0) at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (1-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Notre Dame -3.5 (-115) & 56.5
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Irish -6 & 54.5

A classic battle between Michigan and No. 16 Notre Dame continues this Saturday night in South Bend.

Michigan had a very poor 2013 season, going 7-6 overall and 3-5 in the Big Ten. The Wolverines look to get back to their old ways after a huge 52-14 victory over Appalachian State to start the season. They scored 42 points before allowing their opponent to score, as they outgained the Mountaineers 560-280. The ground game, which ranked 103rd in the nation last year (125.7 YPG), was impressive in the opener, tallying 350 rushing yards.

Notre Dame had a solid 9-4 season in 2013 and capped it off with a bowl win over Rutgers. The team lost eight players to the NFL Draft, but in the 2014 opener against Rice, the Fighting Irish were victorious by a score of 48-17 as the offense went off for 576 yards.

This will be the last meeting in this storied rivalry for a while with Notre Dame opting out of the last few years in the contract, but the school will be happy not to see them every season after taking losses in four of the past five years to the Wolverines. Last year, Michigan was a 41-30 victor as a 4.5-point favorite against Notre Dame, but the last time these two programs met in South Bend two years ago, the Fighting Irish came away with a 13-6 win as the teams combined for eight turnovers.

Overall since 1992, the Wolverines are 10-7 SU (8-9 ATS) when facing Notre Dame. Some interesting trends to consider for Saturday include that the Irish are a mere 20-38 ATS (34%) after a game where they committed no turnovers since 1992, while Michigan is 5-18 ATS (22%) in road games after gaining 475+ total yards in its previous game over the same amount of time.

There are no significant injuries to either team heading into this heated contest.

Michigan was not too impressive in any areas last year, ranking 46th in scoring (32.2 PPG) on just 373.5 total YPG (87th in FBS).

Most of the offense was through the air, as the Wolverines ranked 52nd in passing yards (247.7 YPG) and QB Devin Gardner is back for his senior season. Against Appalachian State, Gardner was extremely efficient, going 13-of-14 for 173 yards (12.4 YPA) with three touchdowns. Last year, he had an outstanding game in this matchup, completing 21-of-33 throws for 294 yards with five total touchdowns and only 1 INT.

Michigan fans quickly forgot how horrible its running game was last season as HBs Derrick Green (15 rush, 170 yards, 1 TD) and De’Veon Smith (8 rush, 115 yards, 2 TD) both eclipsed 11 YPC last week. Last year, these two backs combined for a meager 387 yards on 109 attempts (3.6 YPC) and two touchdowns as Gardner had 483 rushing yards (2.9 YPC) and 11 TD scampers of his own. WR Devin Funchess has successfully made the transition from tight end, and is the team’s No. 1 receiver, which clearly showed with his seven receptions for 95 yards a three touchdowns against the Mountaineers.

The Michigan defense was solid against the run in 2013 (140.2 YPG, 29th in FBS), but still allowed a pedestrian 26.8 PPG (67th in the nation). The Wolverines should improve this season, as LB Jake Ryan (30 tackles in 2013) returns for a full season and joins leader DB Ray Taylor (86 tackles, 4 INT in 2013).

The Fighting Irish had a very underwhelming offense last year behind the arm of Tommy Rees as they scored a woeful 27.2 PPG (74th in FBS) and averaged 406.2 YPG (68th in nation).

QB Everett Golson returns this year after missing 2013 for academic reasons and was accountable for five touchdowns in the season opener when he went 14-for-22 with 295 yards (13.4 YPA) and 2 TD through the air while running for 41 yards (3.4 YPC) and 3 TD on the ground. The last time he faced the Wolverines in 2012, Golson was horrible with just three completions in eight attempts (30 yards) while throwing two interceptions.

The running game is not led by just one player, as HBs Cam McDaniel (8 rush, 40 yards) and Tarean Folston (12 rush, 71 yards) lead the charge, while HB Greg Bryant (8 rush, 71 yards, 1 TD) could be a major factor if he continues to play well.

The receivers are the biggest question mark on the team and WR William Fuller was the top target in the first game (4 rec., 85 yards, 1 TD) leading seven different players that caught a pass. The best returning receiver is sophomore WR Chris Brown who had 209 yards on 15 catches (13.9 avg) in 2013, and he opened 2014 with two grabs for 20 yards.

The defense has many new players with just five students returning to the unit that ranked in the top-35 in scoring defense (22.4 PPG), total defense (366.2 YPG) and passing defense (198.2 YPG) last year. LB Jaylon Smith (66 tackles, 1 INT in 2013) should anchor the defense’s rushing protection while DBs Max Redfield and Austin Collinsworth (43 tackles, 3 INT in 2013) are considered one of the best safety combos in college football.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Notes - Week 2

September 5, 2014

Week 1 Recap

According to our closing numbers on the major games in college football, the ‘under’ produced a 26-20 mark in Week 1 of the holiday season. I didn’t include the results from the “Extra Games” but we will touch on a few schools that both bullied and struggled in Week 1 below. Fortunately for us, VegasInsider.com college football expert James Manos returns with his Week 2 analysis on the total landscape. Manos offered up his thoughts on the opening weekend.

“I thought the sportsbooks did their best job of posting totals for Week 1 in the last three years. However, they were murdered by sharp syndicate action on a few games they completely botched the lines. In particular, the Bowling Green-Western Kentucky matchup. All of the big money movers won almost all the totals they moved on in Week 1,” explained Manos.

Big Five Notes (ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Pac-12, SEC)

The ACC watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 in Week 1. Pittsburgh (62) and North Carolina (56) both lit up the scoreboard while Miami, Fl. (13) looked like the most inept team offensively. Manos didn’t like what he saw from the Hurricanes in Week 1.

He said, “Miami is going to be in trouble if they don't get better QB play. Golden has always been at his best as a HC when he can run the ball and play defense. He has the RB in Duke Johnson but with poor quality QB play, teams can stack the box to stop him. On Monday night the Hurricanes gave Johnson 20 carries that netted just 90 yards. I think Golden's only option is continue to feed Johnson and perhaps get him involved in the passing game even more (just one catch for 5 yards on Monday). With that strategy and an improved defense, Miami may play UNDER some of the high totals they are likely to see.”

The ‘over’ went 3-2 in Big 12 lined games and two of the offensive surprises were West Virginia and Oklahoma State, who scored 23 and 33 against Alabama and Florida State respectively. If you’re looking at an ‘under’ team, then check out Iowa State. The Cyclones were overwhelmed 34-14 by North Dakota State and they lost their top offensive player for the season, WR Quenton Bundrage.

Manos is very high on the FCS school. “North Dakota St. continues to field an FBS caliber defense on the FCS level. NDSU has won the past three FCS National Championships, all of those on the backs of quality defenses, but I don't think I've ever seen an FCS team have this sort of maintained defensive dominance for such an extended period. Last year the Bison allowed just 11.3 PPG and with 7 returning starters they seemed to be in good shape for this season as well. All the Bison did was go into Ames, Iowa (no easy place to play) and hold a Big XII team with 10 returning offensive starters to 14 points, 16 FD's, and just 253 yards of total offense. This is the 5th straight year that NDSU has defeated an FBS team and in those 5 games they've allowed a total of 69 points (13.8 ppg). Amazing!”

The Big Ten saw the ‘over’ go 6-3 in Week 1. Six of the 14 schools scored 40-plus points, including a league-high 55 by Nebraska.

The Pac-12 has four schools put up 50-plus points in Week 1, which included a 62-point performance by Oregon. While a handful of schools looked sharp offensively, UCLA, Washington, Oregon State and Colorado all struggled. The ‘under’ went 5-4 overall.

Kentucky scored 59 points in Week 1, which led all 14 schools in the SEC. Surprised? Considering the Wildcats haven’t busted 50 point since 2010, we should be. Offense is alive in the SEC and it helped the ‘over’ go 5-4 in Week 1.

Game of the Week – No. 7 Michigan State at No. 3 Oregon (Total 56)

All eyes will be in Eugene, Oregon this Saturday as the Spartans and Ducks square off for the first big matchup of the college football season. James Manos broke down the game for total bettors:

It is interesting to know that this is the lowest total on an Oregon game in three years. It' also interesting to note how different the Oregon offense has looked in its last five games vs. a Top 10 defense…..not nearly as good as usual. This will be a battle of styles with Oregon wanting to play up-tempo and make explosive plays and Michigan State wanting to avoid mistakes and play defense.

In a battle that's as dichotomous as this one we'll have to look and see how each team has played vs that style of opponent recently. Michigan State has fielded a Top 10 defense for 3-plus seasons now so let's examine their performances a little. Since 2011 the Spartans, in 39 games, have seen just four non-overtime games vs. FBS teams exceed a 58-point total. But I'd be careful with just assuming that means a low-scoring game here.

Two of those four games came vs. a Russell Wilson lead Wisconsin squad in 2011. The Badgers scored 31 and 42 points in the two meetings that year and I think it's the offense that most resembles the Ducks offense the Spartans will see on Sat. A faster paced team, with an outstanding, experienced QB, leading a team that runs the ball well. Also, interesting to note that the Big 10's only up-tempo team, Indiana, has played to totals of 58 and 70 the last two years vs. MSU running 74 and 83 plays.

I think the Ducks lack the explosive playmakers at the RB position that they've had recently and they'll be facing a VERY good Spartan front seven. The Pac-12 team that most resembles MSU is Stanford and the Cardinals have held the Ducks in check over their last two meetings, holding them to 14 and 20 points.

My offensive efficiency numbers were telling for this game as I have Oregon at 42.4% (my 2nd lowest number for them since 2011) but I made the number 58.5. I'll pass but I bet the Oregon coaches are reviewing those Wisconsin tapes from 2011.

Check out more College Football selections from James Manos!

Line Moves

As Manos mentioned above, the professionals did very well in Week 1 with their college football total leans and they’re locked and loaded again for Week 2. He said, “Those same sharp totals bettors have already picked off some low hanging fruit for this weekend. The Kansas State-Iowa State opened 60.5 and has been bet down to 54.5. What were the bookmakers thinking here? The Arkansas State-Tennessee has jumped from 51 to 57. Colorado-UMass was bet down from 54 to 49.5 and the Air Force-Wyoming game was also dropped, going from 58.5 to 51.5. I agree with all of these four major moves or what many would call mistakes by the books.”

Listed below are all of the total moves by 3 or more points based on openers from CRIS.


Week 2 Total Moves

Matchup Open Current

Kansas State at Iowa State 60.5 55

SMU at North Texas 52.5 44

Buffalo at Army 55.5 52

Arkansas State at Tennessee 51 58

Western Kentucky at Illinois 64 67

New Mexico State at Georgia State 60.5 65

Colorado at UMass 54 49

USC at Stanford 51 54

Idaho at UL Monroe 58 52.5

Georgia Tech at Tulane 52.5 55.5

Maryland at South Florida 50 53

BYU at Texas 51 46

Virginia Tech at Ohio State 50 47

Memphis at UCLA 53 56.5

 

[CNOTES]

Old friends Meyer, Beamer square off

September 5, 2014



The start of conference play in the Big 12 and Pac-12, the last Michigan-Notre Dame game for the foreseeable future and a couple of intriguing intersectional matchups highlight the second week of the college football season.

Here are some things to know before the second weekend kicks off.

COACHING BFFs: There is almost no one in the coaching profession respected more than Virginia Tech's Frank Beamer, now in his 28th season. With two national championships under his belt, there are few coaches in America better known than Ohio State's Urban Meyer.

When the eighth-ranked Buckeyes meet Virginia Tech on Saturday - for the first time ever - it'll be a matchup of friends with a lot riding on the outcome.

When Meyer first started coaching under Bob Davie at Notre Dame and was put in charge of special teams, he sought out the best in the business - the Hokies coach and proponent of ''Beamerball.''

''He was the guy who just started storming the castle, blocking punts,'' Meyer said. ''They were just really aggressive.''

Meyer and Beamer became fast friends. Their wives, Cheryl Beamer and Shelley Meyer, became best friends. After practice Wednesday, Meyer chuckled when he got a text message from Cheryl.

''His reputation follows him. He's a very knowledgeable coach, very good overall,'' Beamer said of Meyer. ''You're talking about a program that has great players, but they're well coached. You say that most times, but they really are a well, well coached football team.''

SPARTANS HEAD WEST AGAIN: Eight months after beating Stanford in the Rose Bowl, No. 7 Michigan State heads back to the West Coast to face No. 3 Oregon in an intriguing matchup between the Ducks' high-flying offense and the Spartans' punishing defense.

Oregon tied for third among all Football Bowl Subdivision teams last year in scoring (45.5). Michigan State ranked third in scoring defense (13.2).

''They're coming in as one of the best defenses in the country, and any offense would love to face that challenge,'' Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota said. ''It helps you see where you stack up.''

MICHIGAN-NOTRE DAME FINALE?: Saturday's Michigan-Notre Dame game marks the last scheduled meeting between these two storied programs as No. 16 Notre Dame begins its commitment of playing five Atlantic Coast Conference opponents per year.

Michigan has a 24-16-1 record in the series, which began in 1887 and has had a number of breaks along the way. The only other schools that own a winning record against Notre Dame and have faced the Irish at least five times are Florida State, Ohio State and Nebraska. But the Irish are 4-0 in home night games against Michigan.

EARLY PAC-12 SHOWDOWN: The opening of league competition in the Pac-12 features a potential conference championship game preview as No. 13 Stanford puts its 17-game home winning streak on the line against No. 14 Southern California. USC beat Stanford 20-17 last year to end a four-game losing streak in this series. This marks the earliest these two teams have faced each other in a season since 1988.

The Big 12 also begins league play Saturday as Iowa State hosts No. 20 Kansas State.

ODDS AND ENDS: One week after surprising Vanderbilt 37-7, Temple can match its 2013 victory total by beating Navy. Temple forced seven turnovers in its season opener after managing just 13 takeaways all of last season. ... East Carolina's Shane Carden, who threw for 4,139 yards and ranked second nationally in completion percentage last season, has a chance to gain much more attention in the next few weeks. East Carolina visits South Carolina on Saturday and faces Virginia Tech and North Carolina after that. ... Richmond quarterback Michael Rocco, a Virginia transfer, faces his former team Saturday.

 

[CNOTES]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves

Week 2 of the college football season has plenty of big spreads bouncing around (FSU -55 *cough* cough*), with FBS programs using poor little FCS schools as punching bags. There are, however, some notable matchups on the calendar and those lines are on the move heading into Saturday’s slate.

We talk with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest and most interesting adjustments on the Week 2 board:

Missouri Tigers at Toledo Rockets – Open: +6, Move: +3.5

Toledo is no stranger to tough competition and the sharp money knows it. According to the MGM properties, the Tigers have twice as many tickets written on them for Week 2 but there’s 15 times more money on the Rockets – setting up a classic sharps vs. squares showdown for this early kickoff.

“Sharps are on one side and the general public is on the other,” Stoneback tells Covers. “These types of games usually don’t go too well for us.”

Maryland Terrapins at USF Bulls – Open: +10, Move: +13.5

The Terps turned heads in their season opener, exploding for 52 points against FCS James Madison. Action on the this game has been as one sided as you can get, moving the line more than a field goal at some markets.

“It’s amazing. Of all the 12 properties and this line being up since Monday, we haven’t written a single ticket on South Florida,” says Stoneback. “Nobody believes in USF.”

East Carolina Pirates at South Carolina Gamecocks – Open: -13.5, Move: -16.5

Poor, poor East Carolina. The Pirates visit the Gamecocks one week removed from a stunning South Carolina loss at the hands of Texas A&M. Both sharp and public money is piling on the host team, pushing this number as much as a field goal at some shops.

“We have twice as many tickets on South Carolina at this point,” says Stoneback, who opened USC -15 and moved to -16.5. “People see the Gamecocks bouncing back in this one.”

Michigan State Spartans at Oregon Ducks – Open: 58, Move: 55.5

Depending on where you play, this total could be going up or down. Online books have trimmed the number to as low as 55.5 while the MGM is reporting steady action on the Over at 56 points and could bump it up before kickoff.

However, Stoneback does see more Under money coming in from wiseguys before the 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff and could bounce this total back and forth all day Saturday.

“The public will likely go Over, only think of Oregon and score, score, score,” he says. “It may creep up and down with wiseguys buying back the Under.”

San Jose State Spartans at Auburn Tigers – Open: 30, Move: 32.5

Faith in the Tigers has this line teetering on a 3-point adjustment. MGM properties in Las Vegas have taken three times more bets on Auburn than San Jose State, including two big limit plays ($5,000) earlier this week.

BYU Cougars at Texas Longhorns – Open: -3.5, Move: +1.5

Injuries to their starting QB and center, as well as the suspension of two offensive linemen, have forced bookmakers to flip the line on this matchup. According to Stoneback, the ticket count is pretty even – with the popularity of the Longhorns keeping it closer – and wouldn’t be surprised to see this line move back toward Texas by kickoff.

“Losing a quarterback at Texas is not like a place like San Jose State losing a QB,” says Stoneback. “We always see Texas money, whether its football or NCAA basketball futures. I’d say their lines could be padded a half a point to a point because of that. BYU, on the other hand, their fans just don’t bet.”

Other moves:

Western Kentucky at Illinois – Open: -7, Move: -5
South Alabama at Kent State – Open: Pick, Move: +3
Fresno State at Utah – Open: -10, Move: -12.5
New Mexico State at Georgia State – Open: -1, Move: +1.5
Ohio at Kentucky – Open: -10, Move: -13
Northern Illinois at Northwestern – Open: -5.5, Move: -7.5
Air Force at Wyoming – Open: -1, Move: +2.5
Oregon State at Hawaii – Open: +12.5, Move: +10

 

[CNOTES]

Essential Week 2 college football betting tidbits

There is plenty of Top 25 action in Week 2 of the college football schedule. If you're having trouble keeping track of it all, here are some essential betting tidbits for all of those ranked matchups:

Citadel Bulldogs at (1) Florida State Seminoles (-55, 64.5)

* The Bulldogs will make sure that Florida State's rush defense is up to snuff. They ran the ball 65 times for 358 yards in their Week 1 loss to Coastal Carolina.

* Expect the scoreboard operator to be busy Saturday evening. Florida State has outscored opponents 224-16 in its four previous home openers under head coach Jimbo Fisher.

Florida Atlantic Owls at (2) Alabama Crimson Tide (-40, 54.5)

* The Owls have certainly been profitable against the spread in road games. They've gone 12-2 ATS in their previous 14 games away from FAU Stadium.

* West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen thinks very highly of Alabama WR Amari Cooper. "No. 9 might be the first overall pick in the draft," he said after the Tide's 33-23 victory in Week 1. Cooper caught 12 balls for 130 yards in the win.

(3) Oklahoma Sooners at Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (+24.5, 57.5)

* Oklahoma is 7-0 against Tulsa under head coach Bob Stoops, with an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. The Sooners are currently favored by 24.5 points.

* The Golden Hurricane certainly don't fare well for the backers early in the season as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in September.

(6) Michigan State Spartans at (4) Oregon Ducks (-12, 55.5)

* The Spartans ride an 11-game winning streak into Oregon. That's the second-longest streak behind Florida State's 17-game run. Michigan State is 9-2 ATS over that stretch.

* Liking the Over in this matchup for the Ducks? The Over is 6-2-1 in Oregon's previous nine games versus Big Ten opponents.

San Jose State Spartans at (5) Auburn Tigers (-32.5, 66.5)

* Bettors have been feasting on Auburn for some time now as the Tigers take a 12-game ATS winning streak into Saturday's game with the Spartans.

* The Spartans opened the season with a Week 1 victory, but if history is any indication, they won't knock off Auburn. The Spartans haven't begun a campaign with a 2-0 record since 1987.

Virginia Tech Hokies at (7) Ohio State Buckeyes (-11, 47)

* The Hokies covered in their Week 1 victory over William & Mary, but if you believe in trends, they won't bank this week. The Hokies are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS win.

* The Buckeyes haven't made their backers happy of late, going 1-5 against the spread in their last six football games.

Northwestern State Demons at (9) Baylor Bears (-47.5, 72.5)

* Demons quarterback Zach Adkins completed 31-of-42 passes for 318 yards in their Week 1 loss to Missouri State.

* Baylor is hosting an FCS school for the 13th consecutive season. The Bears have won the previous 12 by an average of 45 points.

(14) USC Trojans at (10) Stanford Cardinal (-2.5, 54.5)

* The Trojans have been fade material on the road of late, posting just two wins against the spread in their previous 13 road games.

* Stanford WR Ty Montgomery was expected to miss the first half of September after offseason shoulder surgery, but he sure came to play in Stanford's 45-0 rout of UC Davis. Montgomery had five catches for 77 yards and one TD and also opened the scoring with a 60-yard punt return for a TD.

Memphis Tigers at (11) UCLA Bruins (-23, 55.5)

* UCLA's offensive line was abysmal in Week 1 allowing five sacks. Due to constant pressure the team only averaged 4.9 yards per play.

* Memphis has been a stellar total play after winning. Following a SU win, Memphis has an Over/Under record of 3-13.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at (12) LSU Tigers (-31.5, 67)

* LSU owns the nation's longest regular-season non-conference winning streak at 46 games.

* Quarterback Jared Johnson is off to a fast start for the Bearkats with an average of 351.5 passing yards and five touchdowns to five different receivers through the first two games.

Lamar Cardinals at (13) Texas A&M Aggies (-50.5, 77)

* Kenny Hill put all fears to rest for Texas A&M throwing for five touchdowns and helping the team to a 12-of-19 third-down percentage.

* Caleb Berry was no slouch for Lamar, completing 27-of-45 passes for 389 yards and five TDs.

Michigan Wolverines at (15) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3.5, 56.5)

* Michigan was firing on all cylinders in Week 1 averaging 10.18 yards per play as well as 9.72 yards per rush.

* The Fighting Irish have not been a good bet after a dominant performance. Notre Dame is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points.

(16) Arizona State Sun Devils at New Mexico Lobos (+24.5, 69)

* Looking for a high-octane offense? In two-plus years under offensive coordinator Mike Norvell and coach Todd Graham, 119 of the Sun Devils’ 162 scoring drives have been completed in three minutes or less.

* Both QB Clayton Mitchem and WR Carlos Wiggins could be on the sideline for the Lobos. The two combine accounted for 229 rushing yards last week.

(17) Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores (+19.5, 49.5)

* The Rebels offense ran through WR Cody Core in Week 1. Core had four receptions for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

* Vanderbilt has had bounce back ability for bettors, going 5-0 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss.

McNeese State Cowboys at (18) Nebraska Cornhuskers (-38.5, 65)

* The Cowboys have been surprisingly solid against FBS opponents. With a win over Nebraska, McNeese State will have beaten a FBS team for three straight seasons.

* Few teams have been as dominant at home as the Cornhuskers. In 45 home starts under Bo Pelini the teams has won 36.

Western Illinois Fighting Leathernecks at (19) Wisconsin Badgers (-36.5, 52)

* The Leathernecks are facing a nationally ranked FBS team for the first time since a 35-7 loss to eventual national champion LSU in 2003.

* Wisconsin has won 29 consecutive home games against non-conference opponents - second-best to LSU's 40 among FBS teams - dating to a 23-5 loss to UNLV in 2003.

(20) Kansas State Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones (+12, 54.5)

* Talk about a tight rivalry. The Wildcats have won the past six straight matches, but five of them were by eight points or fewer.

* The Cyclones offer little value most of the time, going 1-7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.

East Carolina Pirates at (21) South Carolina Gamecocks (-16.5, 65)

* The Pirates don't slow down after a high-offensive game. Over is 17-4 in Pirates last 21 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

* When these teams met in 2012, Dylan Thompson started for the Gamecocks in place of injured Connor SHaw. Thompson went off for 330 yards and three touchdowns.

(22) Missouri Tigers at Toledo Rockets (+3.5, 60)

* Missouri has forced at least one turnover in 45 consecutive games, the nation’s longest streak.

* Though Toledo started slow, QB Phillip Ely managed to spark the offense throwing for 337 yards and four touchdowns in Week 1.

San Diego State Aztecs at (23) North Carolina Tar Heels (-15.5, 60)

* The Aztecs have been slow starts for bettors, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games in September.

* The Tar Heels have looked to quickly right a wrong from last season. After recording 20 takeaways for all of 2013, North Carolina forced six turnovers — four fumbles, two interceptions — in the win over Liberty.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at (24) Clemson Tigers (-37, 55.5)

* South Carolina State QB Adrian Kollock completed 15-of-18 passes for 160 yards against Benedict.

* Clemson may as well have just stayed in the locker rooms at halftime as they managed 15 yards of offense in the second half in Week 1.

Brigham Young Cougars at (25) Texas Longhorns (+1, 46)

* BYU has been a great total play out of the gate. In the Cougars last 15 games in September, the under has paid out 12 times.

* The Longhorns will be sending sophomore QB Tyrone Swoopes into the game with his first collegiate start.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 6


Ohio State undefeated at home with Meyer

When Virginia Tech takes on Ohio State in Columbus Saturday, one particular trend won't be working in the Hokies' favor.

The Buckeyes are a perfect 15-0 at home under Urban Meyer since he took over the coaching reigns in 2012. Ohio State is currently -11 faves with a total of 47.


Trends show Tulsa going Over the total at home

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane don't seem to have any problems putting up points at home, evidenced by the Over going 6-1 in their last seven home games.

They'll host the dynamic Oklahoma Sooners Saturday. Tulsa is currently 24.5 dogs with a total of 57.5.


Oklahoma-Tulsa will be playing in a wind storm

It looks like the Sooners and Golden Hurricanes may be playing in some less than adequate conditions Saturday. As of kickoff, there is a 61 percent chance of thundershowers.

Even if the thunder doesn't happen the wind should play a major factor. The wind will be gusting between nine and 12 miles per hour.


Extreme winds projected for Sun Devils/Lobos

The Arizona State Sun Devils and New Mexico Lobos are expected to be playing in some extreme wind Saturday. Winds will be gusting between 11 and 13 miles per hour during game time.

There is also a slight 20 percent chance of thundershowers during the contest.


Iowa State posting ugly ATS stats

The Iowa State Cyclones have not been coming through for their backers against good teams in recent games, posting a 1-7-1 record against the spread versus schools with winning records.

Iowa State hosts Kansas State (1-0) Saturday. The Cyclones are presently 12-point dogs with an Over/Under of 54.5.


Akron Zips money for total bettors

The Akron Zips have been money for total bettors over the past two seasons. In the past 11 road games, Akron is 1-10 over/under.

Akron and their opponents have scored an average of 44 points per game during that span.

Akron travels to Penn State with a current total of 50.


Bama not covering for backers as of late

The Alabama Crimson Tide have had a hard time covering in recent games, going 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five matchups.

Bama backers will hope they'll buck that trend against the Florida Atlantic Owls Saturday. Alabama is currently -40 faves with a total of 50.5.


Who has a great ATS record? North Texas or SMU?

The North Texas Mean Green have been a great spread play over the past two seasons. In North Texas' last eight home games against teams with a losing record they are a perfect 8-0 ATS.

The Mean Green are 2.5-point home faves against the SMU Mustangs Saturday.


MAC has not been kind to Army

The Black Knights have never fared well against the Mid-Atlantic Conference for bettors. In the last 15 contest in which Army has faced off against MAC competition, they have gone 3-12 against the spread.

Army hosts Buffalo as 3.5-point home faves.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Michigan State at Oregon
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(6) Michigan State Spartans at (4) Oregon Ducks (-12, 55.5)

The calendar just flipped to September but postseason implications will be the focus when No. 4 Oregon hosts No. 6 Michigan State in a non-conference game Saturday afternoon. Both sides have their sights set on qualifying for the inaugural four-team College Football Playoff and the winner of this game could have solid bragging rights come late November. Oregon was among the national leaders in offensive production last season while the Spartans sported one of the top defenses, and both appear to have carried those same strengths into this season.

Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota picked up where he left off last season, throwing for 267 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for another score in a win over South Dakota. The three-year starter and early Heisman Trophy candidate will have his work cut out against a defense that likes to press receivers with its cornerbacks and blitz its linebackers early and often. Connor Cook also continues to improve at quarterback for the Spartans and was in fine form in the season-opening blowout win against Jacksonville State, completing 12-of-13 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Oregon -12.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line saw Oregon -12 then briefly jumping up to -13 before settling at -12 again. The opening total was originally 58 before quickly falling to 55.5.

INJURY REPORT: Michigan State: QB Connor Cook (Ques-Knee), RB Jeremy Langford (Prob-Leg), WR Macgarrett Kings Jr. (Ques-Leg), OT Travis Jackson (Ques-Back) Oregon: CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (Prob-Ankle)

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (1-0): Spartans running back Jeremy Langford twice hobbled off the field after tweaking his ankle Friday but downplayed the injury earlier this week and appears set to play against the Ducks. Michigan State is also expected to have starting left guard Travis Jackson (back spasms) and punt return specialist Macgarrett Kings (left ankle) in the lineup after they departed early during the Jacksonville State game. Jackson’s return is especially key because the Spartans already lost a starter up front when right guard Connor Kruse went down with a leg injury in the middle of last month.

ABOUT OREGON (1-0): Byron Marshall will have a tough time topping his performance against South Dakota, as he led the Ducks in both rushing and receiving coming out of the slot position. About the only thing he dropped was the football just before he crossed the goal line at the end of what would have been a 54-yard touchdown run. Marshall’s threat, whether on a pass pattern or a handoff, should open things up even more for freshman running back Royce Freeman.

TRENDS:

*Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Spartans are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
*Over is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
*Under is 5-1-1 in Spartans last 7 games in September.

CONSENSUS: 60.36 percent of users are taking Michigan State +6 with 64.8 percent taking over 55.5.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 6


Wisconsin looks to continue dominance at home

The Wisconsin Badgers have been a force at home for over a decade. Wisconsin has now won 29 consecutive home games against non-conference opponents dating back to a 23-5 loss to UNLV in 2003.

The Badgers will host the Western Illinois Fighting Leathernecks Saturday.


Central Michigan are notoriously slow starters

The Central Michigan Chippewas have been a terrible play to start seasons. In Central Michigan's last 11 games in Sept., the team is sporting a 1-10 record against the spread.

The Chippewas travel to Purdue Saturday.


Over trending with Mizzou on the road

Trends are showing the Missouri Tigers are a red-hot Over bet on the road. In their last eight games away from Faurot Field, the Over is 7-1.

Missouri visits the Toledo Rockets Saturday. The Tigers are currently -3.5 faves with an O/U of 60.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF Consensus Picks ( AS OF 7:45 AM PACIFIC TIME )

September 6, 2014 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

12:00 PM Western Illinois +38 3 10.34% Wisconsin -38 26 89.66% View View

12:30 PM South Carolina State +29.5 4 14.81% Clemson -29.5 23 85.19% View View

12:00 PM McNeese State +31.5 5 16.13% Nebraska -31.5 26 83.87% View View

7:00 PM San Jose State +33 444 24.76% Auburn -33 1349 75.24% View View

10:00 PM Memphis +23 457 25.18% UCLA -23 1358 74.82% View View

12:00 PM Stony Brook +14.5 8 26.67% Connecticut -14.5 22 73.33% View View

3:30 PM Ohio +13.5 498 26.67% Kentucky -13.5 1369 73.33% View View

7:00 PM Idaho +14 402 26.73% UL Monroe -14 1102 73.27% View View

12:00 PM Akron +13.5 625 29.15% Penn State -13.5 1519 70.85% View View

4:00 PM Eastern Michigan +39.5 497 30.36% Florida -39.5 1140 69.64% View View

6:00 PM Old Dominion +17 500 30.85% North Carolina State -17 1121 69.15% View View

3:00 PM Fresno State +13.5 572 31.36% Utah -13.5 1252 68.64% View View

12:00 PM Central Michigan +3.5 636 31.41% Purdue -3.5 1389 68.59% View View

12:00 PM Arkansas State +16.5 623 32.95% Tennessee -16.5 1268 67.05% View View

12:00 PM Florida Atlantic +40 639 34.39% Alabama -40 1219 65.61% View View

2:00 PM Alabama-Birmingham +27.5 600 34.42% Mississippi State -27.5 1143 65.58% View View

12:00 PM Howard +36.5 10 34.48% Rutgers -36.5 19 65.52% View View

3:30 PM Middle Tennessee +16 602 36.37% Minnesota -16 1053 63.63% View View

7:00 PM East Carolina +15 688 37.80% South Carolina -15 1132 62.20% View View

3:30 PM Southern California +3 835 38.06% Stanford -3 1359 61.94% View View

12:00 PM Southern Methodist +2.5 626 38.38% North Texas -2.5 1005 61.62% View View

3:30 PM Ball State +19 681 40.56% Iowa -19 998 59.44% View View

12:00 PM Buffalo +3 737 41.38% Army -3 1044 58.62% View View

8:00 PM San Diego State +16 656 41.49% North Carolina -16 925 58.51% View View

7:30 PM Brigham Young -1 859 42.69% Texas +1 1153 57.31% View View

3:30 PM Northern Illinois +6.5 845 44.06% Northwestern -6.5 1073 55.94% View View

7:00 PM Louisiana Tech +15 628 44.35% UL Lafayette -15 788 55.65% View View

2:00 PM New Mexico State -1 734 45.42% Georgia State +1 882 54.58% View View

12:00 PM Western Kentucky +4.5 997 47.61% Illinois -4.5 1097 52.39% View View

8:00 PM Virginia Tech +11.5 1028 51.02% Ohio State -11.5 987 48.98% View View

10:15 PM Colorado State +9 970 51.71% Boise State -9 906 48.29% View View

2:00 PM South Alabama -3 882 53.85% Kent State +3 756 46.15% View View

4:30 PM Mississippi -19.5 1037 55.63% Vanderbilt +19.5 827 44.37% View View

3:30 PM Maryland -13.5 1008 56.12% South Florida +13.5 788 43.88% View View

10:15 PM Air Force -2 923 56.70% Wyoming +2 705 43.30% View View

7:30 PM Michigan +3.5 1227 59.22% Notre Dame -3.5 845 40.78% View View

7:00 PM Duke -19 942 60.97% Troy +19 603 39.03% View View

1:00 PM Navy -3 1219 61.04% Temple +3 778 38.96% View View

6:30 PM Michigan State +13 1426 61.87% Oregon -13 879 38.13% View View

10:30 PM Oregon State -9.5 1158 63.66% Hawaii +9.5 661 36.34% View View

3:00 PM Colorado -17 1074 63.81% Massachusetts +17 609 36.19% View View

12:00 PM Kansas State -12 1457 67.48% Iowa State +12 702 32.52% View View

7:00 PM Arizona State -23.5 1079 67.56% New Mexico +23.5 518 32.44% View View

11:00 PM Texas Tech -21 1147 69.18% Texas El Paso +21 511 30.82% View View

4:00 PM Georgia Tech -10 1195 69.84% Tulane +10 516 30.16% View View

12:00 PM Oklahoma -24.5 1476 71.41% Tulsa +24.5 591 28.59% View View

12:00 PM Missouri -3.5 1683 72.48% Toledo +3.5 639 27.52% View View


Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

12:00 PM Buffalo 52 357 35.84% Army 52 639 64.16% View View

12:00 PM Akron 50.5 434 41.53% Penn State 50.5 611 58.47% View View

1:00 PM Navy 58.5 429 42.39% Temple 58.5 583 57.61% View View

6:00 PM Old Dominion 66.5 372 43.21% North Carolina State 66.5 489 56.79% View View

2:00 PM South Alabama 52 375 43.40% Kent State 52 489 56.60% View View

7:00 PM Idaho 52 360 43.48% UL Monroe 52 468 56.52% View View

3:00 PM Colorado 49 458 48.21% Massachusetts 49 492 51.79% View View

2:00 PM New Mexico State 66 458 48.62% Georgia State 66 484 51.38% View View

8:00 PM San Diego State 60 411 49.46% North Carolina 60 420 50.54% View View

3:30 PM Ball State 52 444 50.34% Iowa 52 438 49.66% View View

12:00 PM Western Kentucky 67.5 550 50.55% Illinois 67.5 538 49.45% View View

12:00 PM Southern Methodist 44 541 50.99% North Texas 44 520 49.01% View View

7:00 PM East Carolina 64.5 489 51.26% South Carolina 64.5 465 48.74% View View

3:30 PM Maryland 53.5 479 51.45% South Florida 53.5 452 48.55% View View

10:15 PM Air Force 51 449 51.85% Wyoming 51 417 48.15% View View

8:00 PM Virginia Tech 47 513 52.24% Ohio State 47 469 47.76% View View

12:00 PM Central Michigan 54 523 52.30% Purdue 54 477 47.70% View View

7:00 PM Arizona State 69 467 52.47% New Mexico 69 423 47.53% View View

3:00 PM Fresno State 64.5 514 53.43% Utah 64.5 448 46.57% View View

3:30 PM Southern California 53.5 567 54.00% Stanford 53.5 483 46.00% View View

7:00 PM Duke 64 478 54.01% Troy 64 407 45.99% View View

7:30 PM Michigan 56.5 557 54.08% Notre Dame 56.5 473 45.92% View View

4:30 PM Mississippi 49.5 503 55.03% Vanderbilt 49.5 411 44.97% View View

12:00 PM Kansas State 54.5 562 55.10% Iowa State 54.5 458 44.90% View View

2:00 PM Alabama-Birmingham 57.5 517 55.24% Mississippi State 57.5 419 44.76% View View

3:30 PM Middle Tennessee 50 533 58.32% Minnesota 50 381 41.68% View View

10:15 PM Colorado State 55.5 532 58.33% Boise State 55.5 380 41.67% View View

3:30 PM Northern Illinois 58.5 539 58.46% Northwestern 58.5 383 41.54% View View

7:30 PM Brigham Young 46 465 58.49% Texas 46 330 41.51% View View

7:00 PM San Jose State 66.5 582 60.12% Auburn 66.5 386 39.88% View View

10:30 PM Oregon State 59 559 60.63% Hawaii 59 363 39.37% View View

3:30 PM Ohio 52 543 60.67% Kentucky 52 352 39.33% View View

7:00 PM Louisiana Tech 58.5 521 60.72% UL Lafayette 58.5 337 39.28% View View

12:00 PM Arkansas State 58.5 637 60.72% Tennessee 58.5 412 39.28% View View

4:00 PM Georgia Tech 56 552 60.86% Tulane 56 355 39.14% View View

12:00 PM Missouri 60 681 61.91% Toledo 60 419 38.09% View View

4:00 PM Eastern Michigan 56 583 65.14% Florida 56 312 34.86% View View

6:30 PM Michigan State 56.5 728 66.12% Oregon 56.5 373 33.88% View View

10:00 PM Memphis 56.5 646 67.86% UCLA 56.5 306 32.14% View View

12:00 PM Florida Atlantic 51 831 72.20% Alabama 51 320 27.80% View View

11:00 PM Texas Tech 65.5 784 74.38% Texas El Paso 65.5 270 25.62% View View

12:00 PM Oklahoma 59 947 75.88% Tulsa 59 301 24.12% View View

 

[CNOTES]

RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS


Friday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------0 - 1

Double Plays--------------------------0 - 1

Triple Plays---------------------------3 - 0

LIGHTS OUT.....................................0 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

10 - 9......................................*****

6 - 4.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

6 - 3 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 1 ....................................LIGHTS OUT


Saturday, September 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Stony Brook - 12:00 PM ET Connecticut -13 500
Connecticut -

McNeese State - 12:00 PM ET Nebraska -32 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Nebraska -

Howard - 12:00 PM ET Howard +36.5 500
Rutgers -

Oklahoma - 12:00 PM ET Tulsa +24.5 500
Tulsa -

Akron - 12:00 PM ET Penn State -13.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Penn State -

Western Illinois - 12:00 PM ET Wisconsin -39.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Wisconsin -

Western Kentucky - 12:00 PM ET Western Kentucky +4.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Illinois -

Central Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Purdue -3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Purdue -

Missouri - 12:00 PM ET Toledo +3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Toledo -

Kansas State - 12:00 PM ET Kansas State -12.5 500 *****
Iowa State -

Southern Methodist - 12:00 PM ET North Texas -2.5 500 *****
North Texas -

Florida Atlantic - 12:00 PM ET Alabama -40 500 LIGHTS OUT
Alabama -

Buffalo - 12:00 PM ET Buffalo +3 500
Army -

Arkansas State - 12:00 PM ET Tennessee -16.5 500 *****
Tennessee -

South Carolina State - 12:30 PM ET South Carolina State +32 500
Clemson -

Navy - 1:00 PM ET Temple +3 500
Temple -

New Mexico State - 2:00 PM ET Georgia State -2 500 *****
Georgia State -

South Alabama - 2:00 PM ET South Alabama -3 500
Kent State -

Alabama-Birmingham - 2:00 PM ET Mississippi State -28 500 *****
Mississippi State -



WILL BE BACK WITH NOON GAMES TILL 4PM PACIFIC....GOOD LUCK !!

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

College football trends to ponder for this week (all records are ATS):

-- Kansas State is 5-12-1 in last 18 games as a road favorite.

-- Vanderbilt won/covered five of last seven games with Ole Miss- this game was moved to Titans' (bigger) stadium (7 miles). Ole Miss will bring lot of fans.

-- South Florida covered twice in its last 14 home games.

-- Home side covered nine of last 12 Michigan-Notre Dame games; Wolverines won and covered six of last eight.

-- UCLA covered 13 of its last 18 non-conference games.

-- Georgia Tech is 2-0-1 in last three games as a road favorite.

 

[CNOTES]

NOON GAMES TILL 4PM PACIFIC


Colorado - 3:00 PM ET Colorado -17.5 500
Massachusetts -

Sacramento State - 3:00 PM ET California -27 500 *****
California -

Fresno State - 3:00 PM ET Utah -13 500 *****
Utah -

Eastern Washington - 3:05 PM ET Washington -16 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Washington -

Maryland - 3:30 PM ET South Florida +10.5 500
South Florida -

Northern Illinois - 3:30 PM ET Northern Illinois +7 500 GRAND SLAM
Northwestern -

Middle Tennessee - 3:30 PM ET Minnesota -14 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Minnesota -

Virginia Military - 3:30 PM ET Virginia Military +37.5 500
Bowling Green -

Eastern Kentucky - 3:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky +5 500
Miami (Ohio) -

Missouri State - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma State -32.5 500
Oklahoma State -

Ball State - 3:30 PM ET Iowa -17.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Iowa -

Southern California - 3:30 PM ET Stanford -3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Stanford -

Ohio - 3:30 PM ET Ohio +13.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Kentucky -

Richmond - 3:30 PM ET Richmond +16.5 500
Virginia -

Georgia Tech - 4:00 PM ET Georgia Tech -8.5 500 *****
Tulane -

Nicholls State - 4:00 PM ET Arkansas -41 500
Arkansas -

Eastern Michigan - 4:00 PM ET Florida -40.5 500
Florida -

Mississippi - 4:30 PM ET Mississippi -19.5 500 *****
Vanderbilt -

Old Dominion - 6:00 PM ET North Carolina State -16.5 500
North Carolina State -

Michigan State - 6:30 PM ET Oregon -13.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Oregon -

 

[CNOTES]

4pm games


Rhode Island - 7:00 PM ET Marshall -40 500
Marshall -

Louisiana Tech - 7:00 PM ET UL Lafayette -16 500
UL Lafayette -

SE Missouri State 0 0th SE Missouri State +24 500
Kansas 0

Alcorn State - 7:00 PM ET Alcorn State +16 500
Southern Mississippi -

Duke 0 0th Duke -17.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Troy 0

San Jose State 0 0th Auburn -33 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Auburn 0

Murray State 0 0th Louisville -35 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Louisville 0

Arizona State 0 0th Arizona State -24.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
New Mexico 0

Florida A&M 0 0th Miami -45 500
Miami 0

Idaho - 7:00 PM ET Idaho +11 500
UL Monroe -

East Carolina 0 0th South Carolina -14 500
South Carolina 0

Towson - 7:30 PM ET West Virginia -24.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
West Virginia -

Michigan - 7:30 PM ET Notre Dame -4 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Notre Dame -

Sam Houston State - 7:30 PM ET Louisiana State -32 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Louisiana State -

Northwestern State - 7:30 PM ET Baylor -48 500
Baylor -

Lamar - 7:30 PM ET Texas A&M -46.5 500 *****
Texas A&M -

Brigham Young - 7:30 PM ET Brigham Young +1 500 *****
Texas -

 

[CNOTES]

LATE EVENING GAMES:

Grambling State - 8:00 PM ET Grambling State +49.5 500
Houston -

San Diego State - 8:00 PM ET North Carolina -14.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
North Carolina -

Virginia Tech - 8:00 PM ET Virginia Tech +10 500 *****
Ohio State -

Idaho State - 8:00 PM ET Idaho State +37 500
Utah State -

Memphis - 10:00 PM ET UCLA -22 500 DOUBLE PLAY
UCLA -

Northern Colorado - 10:00 PM ET UNLV -26.5 500
UNLV -

Air Force - 10:15 PM ET Air Force +1 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Wyoming -

Colorado State - 10:15 PM ET Colorado State +7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Boise State -

Oregon State - 10:30 PM ET Hawaii +9 500 *****
Hawaii -

Texas Tech - 11:00 PM ET Texas Tech -21.5 500 *****
Texas El Paso -