Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 10


Sunday's games
Vikings (6-2) @ Redskins (4-4)— Minnesota won last four games, covered last three; they’re 1-1 in true road games, losing in Pittsburgh, winning 20-17 in Chicago. Vikings are 1-6 in last seven post-bye games, 1-7 vs spread in last eight- they held five of last six opponents under their total for that game. Washington evened its record with upset win at Seattle; they were outgained by 143 yards, with three new starters on offensive line. Home side won last four series games; Vikings lost 38-26/26-20 in last two visits here. Average total in last five series games is 57. Three of last four Redskin games went over total. NFC North teams are 12-9 vs spread outsider their division; NFC East teams are 14-10 vs spread, 8-4 as an underdog.


Packers (4-4) @ Bears (3-5)— Green Bay lost its last three games, scoring 10-17-10 points; they aren’t very good without Rodgers, scoring four TD’s on (22) drives in last three losses. Chicago is 6-2 vs spread this year but they’re favored for first time this season here; this is first time in nine years they’re favored over Packers. Green Bay is 12-2 in last 14 series games; they won last seven visits here. Pack (-7) won first meeting 35-14 in Week 4, thanks to +4 TO ratio. Bears outgained Green Bay 308-260. Bears are 2-2 at home, allowing 15.8 ppg- they lost last three post-bye games, by 41-3-26 points. Under is 6-2 in Chicago games this season. NFL-wide, home favorites are 9-11-2 vs spread in divisional games. Since ’07, Bears are 15-28-3 as a home favorite; under Fox, they’re 0-4 as home faves.


Steelers (6-2) @ Colts (3-6)— Pittsburgh won/covered its last three games, allowing three TD’s on last 31 drives; Steelers are 4-1 on road, winning by 3-17-6-5 points- they’re 12-7 in last 19 games as a road favorite, 2-1 this year. Colts lost three of last four games, are 2-2 at home- three of the four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Steelers won last four series games, last three all by 17+ points. Pitt won last three visits here, by 3-3-21 points. Pittsburgh lost its last three post-bye games; they were favored in two of them. Indy won/covered last four pre-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Colts’ last seven games; under is 7-1 in Steeler games this season.


Chargers (3-5) @ Jaguars (5-3)— Jaguars outscored last four opponents 43-6 in second half of game. Chargers won three of last four games after an 0-4 start; LA lost four of last six post-bye games. Bolts are 3-1 as a road underdog this year, losing on road by 3 in Denver, 8 in Foxboro- they won at Giants/Raiders. Three of their five losses are by 3 points or less. Jaguars allowed 7-7-9-0-7 points in their wins, 27-23-27 in their losses; they’re 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Chargers won last six games vs J’ville, beating Jaguars each of the last four years, scoring 31+ points in last three meetings. Bolts won last three visits here. Last three Charger games stayed under total, as did three of last four Jaguar games.


Jets (4-5) @ Buccaneers (2-6)— Winston (shoulder), Evans (WR) are out here; former Jets QB Fitzpatrick gets nod here under center for Tampa Bay- he is 34 years old, has 46-69-1 record as an NFL starter- he went 13-14 with the Jets the last two years. Bucs lost their last five games (0-4-1 vs spread), scoring total of 13 points in last two games (1 TD on 21 drives). Tampa Bay is 2-2 at home (under 3-1). Jets won five of last seven pre-bye games; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win 17-14 at Cleveland- their road losses are by 9-25-3 points. Jets are 10-1 vs Tampa Bay; their only loss to the Bucs was in 1984. Gang Green won its last three visits to Tampa, with last visit here in ’09. Jets have 2+ takeaways in each go their last five games (+5).


Bengals (3-5) @ Titans (5-3)— Cincy is 1-3 on road this year, 1-2 as road underdog, losing road games by 3-15-16 points- their one road win was in Cleveland. Bengals were held to 148 yards on just 37 plays in dismal 23-7 loss to Jaguars LW- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, had only 8 first downs. Tennessee won its last three games, winning last two by FG each; Titans are 3-1 at home, 2-1-1 as home favorites- their home wins are by 6-14-3 points. Cincy won last two series games, 24-17/33-7; they won last two visits to Nashville- their last loss here was in ’04. AFC North teams are 8-9-1 vs spread outside their division, 3-3-1 as road dogs. AFC South teams are 10-7-1, 4-2-1 as a home favorite. Over is 5-2 in last seven Tennessee games.


Saints (6-2) @ Bills (5-3)— New Orleans won its last six games after an 0-2 start; they’re 2-1 in true road games, winning at Carolina/Green Bay- they won last three games despite being -1 in turnovers in all three games. Saints allowed only 8 TD’s on their foes’ last 60 drives. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this season, allowing 17.3 ppg; Saints won last four series games, all by 12+ points; this is their first visit to western NY since 2009- NO won last three visits here, with lone loss in 1983. NFC South teams are 9-15-2 vs spread outside their division, 6-6-1 on road; AFC East teams are 12-7-2, 5-4-2 at home. Last three Buffalo games went over total; under is 5-1 in last six Saint games. Teams coming off of Thursday night games are 10-5-1 vs spread this season.


Browns (0-8) @ Lions (4-4)— Short week for Detroit after rare win in Lambeau Monday night, which makes this a trap game for Lions. Detroit lost its last three home games, allowing 25.7 ppg- they’re 12-5-3 as home favorite under Caldwell, 1-1 this year. Cleveland is 0-9 (2-7 vs spread); they’re 0-2 as road underdogs this year, losing road games by 14-3-16 points. Browns are 1-5 (2-4 vs spread) in last six post-bye games. Detroit won last three series games, by 3-1-14 points; Browns lost 38-37 in their only visit here, in 2009. Browns’ last three road games went over the total. NFC North home teams are 8-5 vs spread outside the division; AFC North road underdogs are 3-3-1. Cleveland is -13 in turnovers this year, which helps explain the 0-8 mark.


Texans (3-5) @ Rams (6-2)— Houston scored 7-14 points in losing both games Savage started this year; they scored 34.7 ppg in other six games, so Watson’s injury is crippling. Texans are are 3-0 vs spread as road underdog this year; all three games were decided by 4 or less points, but they were also all Watson starts. Rams are home for first time in five weeks; they won last three games, by 10-33-34 points. LA is 1-2 as a home favorite- they lost their last two home games, to Seattle, Washington. Wade Phillips coached with the Texans in 2011-13, was interim coach for three games. Road team won all three series games; Texans won 16-13 in St Louis in only road series games, in ’09. Over is 6-2 in Rams games this season.


Cowboys (5-3) @ Falcons (4-4)— Falcons lost four of last five games after a 1-4 start; they’re 1-2 at home, losing to Buffalo/Miami in last two home tilts. Atlanta scored 23+ points in its four wins, 17 or less in four losses- they won last two series games 19-13/39-28; Cowboys’ last series win was in 2009. Teams split last six series games in Atlanta. Dallas won/covered its last three games; they won their last three road games. Cowboys allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses. Dallas ran ball for 183.4 ypg the last five games; check Elliott’s legal status. Last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; four of last five Dallas games went over. Since 2013, NFL home teams are 5-9 vs spread if they played on road the previous three weeks.


Giants (1-7) @ 49ers (0-9)— Not many 0-9 teams have been favored/pick ‘em in Game 10. 49ers were outscored 51-6 in first half of their last three games; they’re favored for first time this year. This will probably be Beathard’s last start for 49ers; they have bye next week, then Garoppolo figures to take over as the QB. Giants are 3-1 vs spread on road this year, winning at Denver in their last road game. Big Blue’s road losses are by 16-3-2 points, at Dallas/Philly/Tampa- they’ve allowed 400+ yards in their last three games- they allowed 14.1 ypa in rain last week. Big Blue lost field position in its last two games, by 11-14 yards. Giants won six of last eight series games; their last visit to SF was in 2012. Four of last six Giant games went over total.


Patriots (6-2) @ Broncos (3-5)— Denver lost its last four games, giving up 80 points in last two games; their reality is none of its three QB’s are good enough. Broncos allowed TD on defense or special teams in three of last four games- they’re 3-1 at home, but loss was to the 1-7 Giants. New England won its last four games (3-1 vs spread); they’re 3-0 on road, 2-1 as a road favorite, with road wins by 16-5-7 points. Patriots lost six of last eight visits to Denver; they’re 2-3 in last five games with Broncos- two of three losses were playoff games. Since 2013, NFL home teams are 5-9 vs spread if they played on road the previous three weeks. Broncos covered four of last five tries as a home underdog. Last four New England games stayed under the total.


Monday's game
Dolphins (4-4) @ Panthers (6-3)— Miami has led one game at halftime this year, Week 4 vs the Titans; Dolphins are 2-2 in true road games, with wins by total of 5 points. Three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Carolina is 2-2 at home; their defense has allowed only two TD’s on 31 drives in their last three games. Miami is 4-1 against the Panthers, winning 13-9/24-17 in its two visits here. Carolina won last meeting 20-16 in 2013. AFC East road teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC South home teams are 3-9. Panthers lost six of last eight pre-bye games. Carolina OC Mike Shula is Don Shula’s son. Last three Miami games went over the total; last three Carolina games stayed under.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 10 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner


When Jacksonville wins, it wins big, with margins of 16, 27, 21, 37 and 22 points in victories this season. Can the Jaguars cover again in Week 10?


Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 42.5)


The early offshore number came out with -2 on the Vikings and that quickly dropped to as low as -1 from the outset. I favor the offshore number, in fact, I made this Minnesota -2.5 to be honest.


As good as Washington looks at times, its season has been an up-and-down affair. A quality win in Seattle doesn’t mask the fact that they can’t seem to win against other top teams in the league. Prior to last Sunday, the Redskins fell to Dallas, Philadelphia and Kansas City, and their lone win was against the cellar-dwelling 49ers.


Minnesota has been pretty much lights out. Winners of four in a row, the Vikings defense has been their calling card. For six games in a row, they have not given up more than 17 points. This makes it a lot easier for the offense. Now, with a week off, both sides of the ball are well rested and ready to go. You have to think these guys are energized for this game.


No matter who you like with a line this low, all your asking for is your team to win. The spread appears to be a non-factor. That’s why I believe the value is with the Vikings. The way this line is moving, you just might want to wait to see if this hits the Pick’em level by game day.


Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 41)


Again, the early number coming out from the offshores was -4.5 and that was quickly bet down to the current -3.5. And like Vikings-Redskins game, I agree with the bookmakers on this one. I’m riding the Jaguar Express while it’s hot and made this line closer to -5.5, bordering -6.


Despite Philip Rivers’ mounting passing yardage, the Chargers don’t seem to be scoring a lot. Their offense is mustering less than 19 points per game, averaging only 17 the past three weeks. Certainly, there’s nothing wrong with their defense, but after losing their first four games of the season, their three-game win streak seems a little tarnished beating teams like the Giants, Oakland and Denver. Three teams that total just eight wins for the season.


Jacksonville is hot. Add the return of top running back, Leonard Fournette, and the offense can keep some distance on the scoreboard. As for the defense, the Jaguars have held three of their last four opponents to single digits. When Jacksonville wins, it wins big, with margins of 16, 27, 21, 37 and 22 points.


The momentum appears to be with the Jaguars, who are locked in a two-way tie for first place in the AFC South. Don’t be afraid of the hook - not when this game should be around a touchdown difference.


Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-5, 40.5)


Tennessee broke out of the gate at -5.5 and the line has been slowly creeping downwards, in some cases, as low as -4.5 at some books. I’m with the early money on this one. I made this no higher than -3.5 and was thinking -3 (-120) was better.


Cincinnati traditionally is a betting favorite for good reason. And although they don’t always play up to their expectations, the Bengals are a team that has the perception that they can break out at any time. With WR A.J. Green dodging the suspension bullet, the Bengals appear to be at their crossroads for this season. Their two losses in the past five weeks were to quality teams in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. And if not for those defeats, they’d be in the thick of things in the AFC North. They’ll be in thicker things if they lose this week.


Tennessee is mounting the W’s but peeling back the layers a bit reveals wins against Baltimore, Cleveland and Indianapolis. The Titans’ combined efforts have yielded a mere seven wins total. With an erratic offense, it seems that Cincinnati can stay close all game and even win this one straight up.


After last week’s dismal display, I get the feeling the Bengals will have something to prove and will be highly energized to get this game underway. The value here is with the dog, grabbing as many points as you can.

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 10
November 9, 2017


Week 9 Record: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 27-27 SU, 23-30-1 ATS

Vikings (-1 ½, 42 ½) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST


Minnesota
Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1


The Vikings return from the bye week seeking their fifth consecutive victory after pulling away from the winless Browns in London two weeks ago, 33-16 as 11-point favorites. Minnesota’s defense continues to shut opponents down by allowing 17 points or less in six straight games, while outgaining each of those teams during this stretch. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was added to the active roster, but Case Keenum will remain the starter as he seeks his first 300-yard passing game since Week 2.


Washington
Record: 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Redskins went to the west coast for the second time this season and knocked off an NFC contender for the second time. After defeating the Rams in Week 2, Washington pulled the trick again last week in a 17-14 triumph as eight-point underdogs at Seattle. That victory put an end to a two-game losing streak, as the ‘Skins improved to 4-1 against teams outside the NFC East. Washington and Minnesota have hooked up six times in the last seven seasons as the Vikings have captured four of those six matchups.


Best Bet: Redskins + 1 ½


Chargers at Jaguars (-3 ½, 41) – 1:00 PM EST


Los Angeles
Record: 3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1


The Lightning Bolts have thrived on the highway this season compared to their new home in Carson. Los Angeles is 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS away from southern California, including underdog victories over the Giants and Raiders. The Chargers are back from the bye week following a 21-13 setback at New England in Week 8 as 6 ½-point underdogs to halt a three-game losing streak. This series has been owned by the Chargers, who have won six straight meetings with the Jaguars since 2010, including a 38-14 blowout of Jacksonville last season in San Diego.


Jacksonville
Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1


The Jaguars’ defense continues to dominate as Jacksonville has allowed single-digits in each of its five victories. Jacksonville picked up consecutive wins for the first time this season in last week’s 23-7 rout of Cincinnati as six-point favorites, while cashing the UNDER for the third time in the past four games. Jaguars’ running back Leonard Fournette is expected to return to the lineup after missing last week’s win due to a violation of team rules.


Best Bet: Chargers +3 ½


Bengals at Titans (-4 ½, 40 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Cincinnati
Record: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1


The Bengals entered last week’s game at Jacksonville winners of three of their past four contests. However, wide receiver A.J. Green was ejected in the first quarter following a fight with Jacksonville’s Jalen Ramsey and the Bengals’ offense couldn’t get anything going in a 23-7 loss. For the third time this season, Cincinnati was held to 10 points or less, while the Bengals accumulated only 148 yards of offense. Cincinnati and Tennessee have met just twice since 2009 with the Bengals winning each time as the previous matchup came in 2014 at Paul Brown Stadium, 33-7.


Tennessee
Record: 5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1


The Titans are heating up of late by pulling off three straight wins, including each of the past two by three points each. Tennessee held off Baltimore last week at home, 23-20, while eclipsing the OVER for the third straight time at Nissan Stadium. Five of the next six opponents for the Titans are currently below .500, although four of those games are away from Nashville. Tennessee has won seven of its last eight home contests dating back to last season.


Best Bet: Titans -4 ½


Saints (-2 ½, 46 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST


New Orleans
Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1


The 0-2 start by the Saints seems like a long time ago as New Orleans has built a six-game winning streak to take over first place in the NFC South. New Orleans has also covered each time during this hot stretch, while coming off a pair of home victories over Chicago and Tampa Bay. Since losing the opener at Minnesota, the Saints are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS away from the Superdome, while posting an incredible 12-2 ATS mark in their last 14 road games since December 2015.


Buffalo
Record: 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1


The Bills were tripped up by the Jets last Thursday, 34-21 to fall to 1-3 on the road. However, Buffalo has yet to lose at New Era Field this season by compiling a 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS record, while putting up over 30 points in each of its last two home wins. The Bills have been outgained in the yardage category in seven straight games, but have covered in each of their two games as an underdog against NFC South opponents this season (Panthers and Falcons). Buffalo has dropped each of the past four meetings with New Orleans since 2001, including a 35-17 loss at the Superdome in 2013.


Best Bet: Bills +2 ½


Cowboys at Falcons (-3, 50 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Dallas
Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1


The Cowboys have rebounded from a minor two-game losing streak in early October by winning three straight contests. Dallas took care of Kansas City last Sunday, 28-17 as 2 ½-point favorites, highlighted by two touchdown passes and a touchdown run by quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys were blown out in their first road games of the season at Denver, but are rolling away from the Lone Star State by beating the Cardinals, 49ers, and Redskins in their last three road contests.


Atlanta
Record: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1


The Falcons didn’t seem to have a Super Bowl hangover following a fast 3-0 start. However, the Falcons have been grounded lately by dropping four of their last five games, including a 20-17 defeat at Carolina last week in their NFC South opener. Atlanta squandered a 10-0 lead, while being held to 17 points or less in all four losses this season. The Falcons erased a 21-7 deficit in a 39-28 victory at Dallas in their last meeting two seasons ago, highlighted by a 12-catch, 164-yard, two-touchdown performance by wide receiver Julio Jones.


Best Bet: Falcons -3


Giants (-2 ½, 42) at 49ers – 4:25 PM EST


New York
Record: 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1


Amazing to think that these two teams met for the NFC Championship in 2011, but as they say, life comes at you fast. New York is coming off a humiliating 51-17 home loss to the Rams last week to fall to 0-4 SU/ATS at Met Life Stadium this season. However, the Giants haven’t been horrible on the highway as their only victory this season is at Denver, while covering three straight on the road. The Giants are making their first appearance ever at Levi’s Stadium, while traveling to the Bay Area for the first time since a 26-3 blowout of the Niners in 2012.


San Francisco
Record: 0-9 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5000/1


The 49ers acquired quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo at the trade deadline, but are in no rush to play the former Patriots’ backup. San Francisco is still searching for its first win under Kyle Shanahan after dropping a 20-10 home decision to Arizona last week. Following a 4-1 ATS run which included five losses by three points or less, the Niners have failed to score more than 10 points in each of the past three games, while losing each time by double-digits.

Best Bet: 49ers +2 ½

 

[CNOTES]

Best Bets - Week 10 Sides
November 9, 2017


NFL Week 10 Best Bets – Sides


Week 9 was a good one for my NFL Best Bets as the decision to lay some small chalk with two teams ended up sweeping the board. Carolina and Arizona managed to hang on for outright wins and ATS covers, and I'm hoping for similar results from the two plays I've selected in Week 10.


The two best bets this week may not be the most attractive games on the board, but they do have something in common as they are both more of the mindset of fading teams that are on the verge of mutiny in 2017.


Best Bet #1: Tennessee Titans -4.5


Tennessee managed to hold on to a 23-20 win over Baltimore last week, and now they host their second straight AFC North opponent when the Bengals come into town on Sunday. This is actually the third straight game against AFC North teams for Tennessee and they've got Pittsburgh on deck, so this run of conference non-division games will go a long way in determining the Titans playoff hopes this year.


Tennessee may be 0-1-1 ATS in their first two AFC North games so far, but neither the Browns or Ravens are quite as dysfunctional at the moment as the Cincinnati Bengals are and that's saying something. The Bengals have been an utter disaster for much of the year and now they've got their All-Star WR AJ Green reenacting UFC fights on the football field. Throw on top of that a backup QB who's filed a grievance against the organization for a botched trade that would have got him out of town, a long-tenured HC who's completely lost the room and should be on his way out, and a starting QB in Andy Dalton who looks lost out on the field right now. Cincinnati is one more bad loss away from an all out mutiny within the organization, punting on 2017 and completely blowing things up to try and regain some sort of positivity within the organization going forward.


Defensively the Bengals are still pretty decent, but when the offense has scored a grand total of 7 points combined in the 2nd half of their last three games, things are bad. No halftime adjustments are being made, opposing defenses are keying on Green as Cincy's only legit weapon, and not scoring in the final 30 minutes of NFL games is how a team piles up SU and ATS losses in a hurry (Bengals are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in those three games).


Tennessee hasn't exactly been great ATS-wise of late either with a 1-3-1 ATS mark over thier last four, but only two of those games were at home and they did go 1-0-1 ATS in those contests. The Titans prefer to run the ball down opponents throats to break their will, and with the Bengals “will” fractured and hanging on by a thread already, this could finally be the game we see the entire Cincinnati team blatantly quit on Marvin Lewis. That Titans ground attack will bury the Bengals in the 2nd half here, and with Cincinnati being 4-10 ATS with Dalton under center in their last 14 games against winning teams, Bengals fans better be prepared to abandon ship come Sunday night.

Best Bet #2: San Francisco 49ers +2.5


A game between the 1-7 SU New York Giants and 0-9 SU San Francisco 49ers is going to get next to nothing in terms of viewership during the 4 pm EST slot of games. The majority of football fans/bettors will gravitate towards the Dallas/Atlanta game for the most part, and the Houston/L.A Rams to a lesser extent, but this Giants/49ers game may turn out to be the easiest to bet of the three.


New York is in a similar position to the Bengals given their disastrous year, but unlike negative Bengals fans actively waiting for the mutiny to happen in Cincinnati, Giants fans know it's already happening with their team in New York. There have been reports all week that HC Ben McAdoo has completely lost the room, the Giants are getting more and more desperate to move on from Eli Manning at QB, and it would be in the best interest of New York's long-term franchise health to “tank” away the rest of 2017. Whether that ends up happening or not remains to be seen, but you've got to figure that motivation, energy, and focus is at an all-time low for the Giants right now – oh, and the cross-country trip just to struggle doesn't exactly help morale either.


San Francisco has become a team that no better really wants a piece with their 0-9 SU start to the year (4-5 ATS), but unlike the Giants and all their dysfunction, the 49ers poor record simply comes from a lack of talent. That's not exactly what you want to hear about a football team you are going to back, but everyone in the San Francisco organization knew this year would be rough and it's just Step 1 in a full-blown rebuild. Yet, inside that locker room, the players are still a prideful bunch and have to be more enthused then they have been all year because they've got to view this game vs. New York as one they can legitimately win. Nobody wants to be remembered for being on a winless NFL team, and outside of road games against the Bears and Texans coming up, this may be San Francisco’s last legitimate shot to break that goose egg in the win column this year.


Furthermore, we can't discount the fact that oddsmakers opened up this game with San Francisco being a -1/-1.5 point home favorite. The expected plethora of action has since come on the Giants as after all, they are the team who has at least won once this year, and nobody has really wanted any piece of the 49ers. But now that this line has flipped all the way to the original home favorites catching nearly a FG, I don't care how bad these teams are, that's value I can't pass up. When you sit back and consider that the 49ers are trying to actively win (at least a couple of games in 2017) and the Giants are actively trying to lose right now, the 49ers at this underdog price appears to be the better play.


Opening up the week I was fully prepared to lay the -1 with the 49ers at home in this spot against this Giants team that's going to explode from within in the coming weeks, but now that we've got even more value on the 49ers (and a ML play) and the dysfunctional Giants are a hugely popular public side (75% on ML, 80% on spread according to VegasInsider.com), I'll be taking the points now and dabbing a bit on the 49ers ML (+125) as well.


**************************


Best Bets - Week 10 Totals
November 9, 2017


NFL Week 10 Best Bets – Totals


Last week's Totals Best Bets piece ended up splitting the board as the Bengals offensive woes in the 2nd halves of games continued, and despite even getting a bad number on the 'under' 51 in KC/Dallas – it closed at 53 – those two teams still managed to play a sub-50 point game.


Week 10 has quite a few unattractive games on the board overall, but the entire NFL season hasn't been the greatest with all the injuries teams have suffered and some very suspect QB play.


Yet, that doesn't mean we won't see a few higher scoring games this week as we've got plenty of totals in the mid-to-low 40's range, and I do believe we see at least a few of them surpass their numbers.


Best Bet #1: Cincinnati/Tennessee Over 40.5


The fact that Cincinnati has scored just a single offensive TD during the 2nd half of their last three games is astonishing and burned me last week, but if the Bengals want to save their 2017 season, this offense has got to find a way to produce.


The Bengals are a franchise that's in a bit of a dysfunctional state right now, but they did manage to catch a break when WR A.J Green was only fined and not suspended for his role in a fight last weekend. Green is by far the most explosive weapon QB Andy Dalton has at his disposal, and Dalton himself has to step up his level of play dramatically as well if the Bengals want a shot at the outright upset. But this lack of scoring in 2nd halves has to have been a focal point in the offensive meeting room, and all involved, (QB, WR, RB, Offensive Co-ordinator), should be better this week. I mean, they really can't be much worse right?


Tennessee is a team that prefers to run the ball which isn't ideal for 'over' plays, but the weakness of Cincy's defense is against the run (116.5 yards allowed/game) and the Titans should take full advantage of it. They've got two great RB's in DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry that should be able to find large holes created by their O-line. Cincy's defense has allowed at least 23 points in road contests against teams not named Cleveland, meaning the Titans should be able to put up 24+ themselves on Sunday afternoon.


That means that the Bengals will have to pull their weight to the tune of at least 17 points, and given this Week 10 game is a vital turning point in their 2017 campaign, I believe the Bengals offense steps up and performs. Cincinnati saw how Baltimore was able to put up multiple scores in a comeback effort last week against this Titans defense, and with the Bengals on a 22-8 O/U run after scoring 14 or fewer points the last time out – including 2-1 O/U this year, this game should see at least 44+ points by the time the final horn sounds.


Best Bet #2: Cleveland/Detroit Over 43.5


The winless Browns are coming off their bye week after they were spanked in London two weeks ago, giving them plenty of time to work on all the problems they've got on both sides of the ball. Cleveland's issues on more on the offensive end as they've only scored 20 or more points once all year and a stat like that speaks to just how bad their QB play has been. But if there ever was a time to put a bit of faith in a young QB like DeShone Kizer and a flailing Browns offense, it would be after a week off where practice time and the like gives them a chance to regroup.


Furthermore, what do the Browns really have to lose at this point of the year by going out and adopting a “gunslinger” mentality to try and get in the win column? Cleveland is staring another possible winless season right in the face for the 2nd straight year, and well an outright victory may not be in the cards as a double-digit road underdog this week, if their offense can at least take some strides forward and put up 20+ for the first time since Week 3, who knows what the remaining seven weeks hold in terms of potential wins for Cleveland. The organization is 3-1 O/U the last four years after their bye week, and on an 8-2 O/U run in their last 10 on the road overall.


Admittedly, most of those Browns 'overs' away from home have come thanks to the opposition piling on the points against Cleveland, and that's some good news for a Detroit team who's had red zone efficiency problems all year long. Two weeks ago against Pittsburgh those red zone issues were magnified and exposed as they cost the Lions the game, and even on MNF last week in Green Bay, nothing really operated smoothly for Detroit in that regard. Well, getting to face this Browns defense should fix some of those immediate concerns for the Lions attack, and a 4-0 O/U run going off a MNF game as an organization suggests the short week doesn't hurt Detroit in terms of points being scored one way or another.


If Cleveland does decide to adopt a more aggressive approach to try and obtain that first W, the Lions will be able to match that aggressiveness with some drives that end in TD's themselves. Something like a 30-14 Detroit win is very reasonable to project, but I do believe we see a few more points then just winning by the hook here.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Elliott's suspension back in effect
November 9, 2017


Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott had his latest legal motion denied by the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York on Thursday, meaning his six-game NFL suspension is back in effect.


Barring a last-minute maneuver, Elliott will begin his suspension when the Cowboys visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.


Elliott is in line to miss at least four games barring some unforeseen development. His next court date is set for Dec. 1, after the NFL Players Association requested an expedited appeal of Thursday's decision.


Elliott's suspension was immediately reinstated upon the court's ruling.


If the six-game suspension sticks, Elliott will next be eligible to play against the Seattle Seahawks on Dec. 24.


Elliott ranks second in the NFL with 783 rushing yards. He led the league with 1,631 last season as a rookie.


--The Indianapolis Colts released two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Vontae Davis, the team announced.


The move comes one day after multiple outlets reported that Davis would have season-ending groin surgery. The 29-year-old reportedly had been seeking additional medical opinions before accepting the decision to have surgery.


Also, the Colts promoted receiver Matt Hazel to the 53-man roster from the practice squad.


--The New England Patriots claimed tight end Martellus Bennett off waivers, the team announced. The move came one day after Bennett was waived by the Green Bay Packers.


Bennett, who was released by Green Bay with the designation that he failed to disclose a physical condition, rejoins the team with which he won a Super Bowl ring last season.


--The Philadelphia Eagles signed defensive tackle Tim Jernigan to a four-year contract extension, the team announced.


The deal is worth $48 million, including $26 million guaranteed, according to ESPN.

--Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston was fined $12,154 for his role during an altercation in Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints.


Winston's tap on the helmet of Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore instigated an incident in which Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans came running over and drilled the rookie in the back. Evans received a one-game suspension and a $40,588 fine earlier this week.


Winston's action came after he had left the game with an injury to his passing shoulder that is expected to sideline him for at least two games.

--Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green said he does not plan to appeal the reported $42,000 fine he received from the NFL for punching Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey.


--Detroit Lions right guard T.J. Lang has entered the NFL's concussion protocol, coach Jim Caldwell announced.


Lang's concussion symptoms developed during practice on Wednesday, two days removed from the Lions' 30-17 win over his former team, the Green Bay Packers.


The concussion puts Lang's availability for Sunday's matchup against the Cleveland Browns (0-8) in jeopardy.

--New Orleans Saints cornerback Delvin Breaux will remain on injured reserve for the rest of the season following a setback sustained in his recovery from a broken fibula, coach Sean Payton announced.


Breaux had been designated to return from the injury, which he sustained in training camp. He will be a restricted free agent next season.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL HALFWAY: Strong as ever, kickers remain a key to success
November 9, 2017


EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. (AP) When the Minnesota Vikings signed Kai Forbath last season, he'd gone 10+ months without kicking in a meaningful game.


Having emerged as the most viable candidate from the tryout group assembled amid Blair Walsh's persistent struggles, Forbath was the favored option when the Vikings made the change. He'd diligently kept up his kicking and training during the hiatus, of course, but there was no way he could actually create game-like atmospheres and conditions in preparation for the return to live action.


Forbath stepped in and performed like he'd never missed a turn. He's not the only one in the NFL fraternity who has done so.


''It's tough coming straight in and having to play a few days after your tryout,'' Forbath said, ''but that's part of the job.''


In 15 games for the Vikings since his arrival, Forbath has made all but one of his 37 field goal attempts. That's the best rate in the league over that span.


''Fortunately for me it wasn't my first time doing that, so I had a little experience coming in and doing it right away,'' said Forbath, who'd been released by Washington after the first game of the 2015 season before joining New Orleans six weeks later.


Forgetting for a moment the perplexing recurrence of missed extra points, Forbath has been an unquestionable success coming straight from the street. Rookie Harrison Butker has also filled in seamlessly for AFC West leader Kansas City, which lost Cairo Santos to groin trouble three games in. Another rookie, Jake Elliott, has been holding his own for NFL-best Philadelphia after a hip injury waylaid Caleb Sturgis in the season opener. The 35-year-old Mike Nugent has fared well over the last two games for Dallas after stalwart Dan Bailey hurt his groin.


''Those guys are always working out, always prepared, always ready for any type of workout that could help them make a team down the line,'' Vikings special teams coordinator Mike Priefer said. ''You can tell the guys, when they come to workouts, if they haven't been working out a lot lately because they just don't go out and perform very well. Especially kicking and punting, even snapping, too: It's like golf. It's like any kind of specialty type of sport. You've got to do it a lot. You have to continually work on that if you're going to be good at. Especially for a workout: You might get called on a Monday for a workout on Tuesday.''


Incumbents around the league have been thriving, too. Aside from the longer 33-yard distance for extra points, there's never been a better time in NFL history to be a kicker. There are so many artificial surfaces in the NFL's stadiums and lifelong opportunity to hone their craft and learn the best techniques.


''The science of it has changed a lot. When these older guys were kicking back in the day, they were kicking the ball just like a soccer ball. Now guys are going to camps when they're young,'' Forbath said. ''It has gotten pretty technical.''


According to research by SportRadar, the league-wide field goal rate is 83.6 percent. That's slightly down from the 2013 peak, which was 86.5 percent, but it's a marked improvement from 15 years ago, when NFL kickers combined to make 77.5 percent of their field goals.


From long range, they're as on-target as ever. The league-wide rate from 50-plus yards is 69 percent, which is on pace to establish an NFL record. In 2013, that number was 67.1 percent. In 2002? Only 51.8 percent of 50-plus yard attempts were successful.


Forbath and Elliott are two of six kickers in the league this season who have made four or more 50-yarders.


According to the Pro Football Reference database , the five most accurate field goal kickers in league history are all active: Bailey, Baltimore's Justin Tucker, Forbath, Buffalo's Steven Hauschka, and New England's Stephen Gostkowski.


That would explain why Gostkowski was so upset about missing two of six field goal tries in his team's last game, despite a victory.


''I get mad. It's going to bother me for a week, probably two weeks, but that's just part of the game,'' Gostkowski said. ''If you can't deal with it, then you probably shouldn't be here.''


Keeping an even keel amid the seven missed extra points in 30 attempts for the Vikings has helped Forbath, for sure. He's 21 for 22 on field goals, tied for the second-most makes in the NFL.


''He went through his up and downs in his career early and seems to have found his groove here,'' Vikings general manager Rick Spielman said. ''It's a pretty good, comforting feeling to know that when your guy goes out there to kick the field goals that he's got a 97 percent chance of making it.''

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
November 10, 2017


Sharp action has jumped on a couple sides Las Vegas sports books will eventually need in Sunday's Week 10 NFL action. There are also a few large favorites involving popular public teams the books know they're going to have beat down to have a winning day.


"This one is the most fun of the week," an excited Jason Simbal said Friday in regards to booking Sunday's card for his seven CG Technology sports books. "All the sharps are on the Browns. They took +12.5, +12, and then +11.5 last night -- all max bets. I'm going to leave it at (Lions) -11 for now and see where it takes us because I know the majority of the public action this week isn't taking the Browns."


The Detroit Lions (4-4) are one of three double-digit favorites Sunday which causes a danger alert for the sports books because large money-line parlays and teasers will create some major risk. Pittsburgh is -10 at Indianapolis and the Los Angeles Rams are 12-point home favorites over quarterback Tom Savage and the Texans. Watching Houston's offense without DeShaun Watson behind center is eye opening to just how good Watson was as a rookie.


The winless Browns (0-8) have gone 2-6 against the spread this season. In their last 16 road games, the Browns have gone an ugly 3-12-1 ATS. But still, inflated lines on the Browns opponents attract the wise guys tpo Cleveland. The Lions have gone 4-9 ATS in their last 13 and come off a Monday night win at Green Bay, which snapped a three-game losing skid.


The popular Steelers have taken 87 percent of the cash wagered on the game at William Hill sports books through Thursday night. The 3-6 Colts have covered their last two and five of nine this season. Pittsburgh (6-2) comes off a bye and have won and covered their last three with an attacking defense that is allowing just 16.4 points per game which has helped them become the best 'under' team (7-1) in the NFL. Despite the Steelers total trend, this total has moved up from 43.5 to 45.


Other one-sided tickets written games at William Hill's 107 sports books across Nevada include the Bears (80%) at home against the Packers, Jets (91%) at Tampa Bay, Rams (87%) at home against Houston, Cowboys (89%) at Atlanta and Patriots (84%) at Denver.


The most bet game of the week so far is also the Sunday Night Football game, which means the result of the game will probably dictate whether or not the books win on Sunday.


"The biggest public play of the week has been the Patriots at Denver," said Simbal, who has the Patriots -7 -120. "It's been all Pats and I don't think that is going to change. We have a ticket ratio on them already at 8.8-to-1 and that figure will rise over the weekend.


"While we haven't had a lot of tickets written on the Broncos, the bets that did come on them were all sharp guys taking +7.5," he explained. "There were four of them."


Simbal also said that despite the large Broncos (3-5) money, he'll still be rooting for Denver to cover or win because the parlay liability from the first 11 games will have the majority of the payout tickets tied to the Patriots (6-2). The combination of the three double-digit favorites and the Patriots covering would be a crushing four-bagger on all payout charts (teasers, parlays, money-line parlays, parlay cards).


"Yeah, we're going to need the dog to cover a couple those," Simbal said, despite already having large money on the Browns and Patriots.


There's one other game the sharps jumped at during the week. It's the battle for the overall No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft with the 1-7 New York Giants visiting the 0-9 San Francisco 49ers. Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen? I don't know if there's a loser in either selection, so let's see both sides play the game to win.


"They've (sharps) pushed the Giants up -2.5 -120 after we opened the 49ers -1," said Simbal, CG's VP of risk management. "We took max bets at Giants +1, pick, and then we went to Giants -2 and they laid -2 and -2.5, which is where we're at now, -120."


Rookie QB C.J. Beathard is expected to start again for the 49ers while new acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo will be on the sideline in uniform and ready to go if needed. The Giants have lost and failed to cover their last two -- both at home -- following their only win at Denver. The 49ers have covered only twice in their last 11 home games.


Simbal also said his books took some sharp action on the Jets (4-5) at Tampa Bay (2-6). They opened the Bucs -1.5 and the number ran to Jets being -2.5. The Bucs are starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback for the injured Jameis Winston. They've gone a disappointing 1-6-1 ATS so far. The Jets have been one of the best cover teams in the league at 6-2-1 ATS. Jets QB Josh McCown has completed 70.4 percent of his passes this season.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 10
November 11, 2017


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Falcons are 10-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 22, 2002 as a favorite coming off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Giants are 0-11 ATS (-15.2 ppg) since December 18, 2011 off a game as a dog of more than three points where they allowed at least 30 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Patriots are 0-7 OU (-11.6 ppg) since Nov 30, 2014 on the road when Tom Brady threw at least 40 passes last game.


SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:


-- Teams which benefited from at least 15 penalties last game are 35-45-3 ATS. Active against NY Giants.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Packers are 11-0 OU (11.7 ppg) since November 1992 off a game as a home dog where they scored fewer points than expected.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Patriots are 0-13 OU (-9.7 ppg) since December 2012 on the road off a game as a favorite where they gained at least 400 total yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Cowboys are 13-0 ATS (+11.9 ppg) as a dog after they had more third down conversions than punts last game.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 10
November 11, 2017


The ‘under’ produced a 7-6 mark in Week 9 and that record could’ve easily been 10-3 to the low side. Outside of the two easy ‘over’ winners between the Broncos-Eagles and Rams-Giants matchups, the other four tickets that went high received some late explosions. Those games included the Bills at Jets, Ravens at Titans, Raiders at Dolphins and of course we can’t forget the ‘bad beat’ in the Lions-Packers game on Monday Night Football. Losing an ‘under’ bet on an untimed down is a tough way to lose, lucky way to win. Through nine weeks of the NFL regular season, the ‘over’ holds a 67-64-1 record.


Line Moves


Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 10 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.


Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: 43 to 45
N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay: 41 to 43 ½
New Orleans at Buffalo: 48 ½ to 47 ½
Houston at L.A. Rams: 47 to 45 ½
Dallas at Atlanta: 50 ½ to 48 ½
New England at Denver: 46 ½ to 44 ½


After three straight solid defensive efforts, it appears that bettors are starting to believe that the Saints have become an ‘under’ team. Their total at Buffalo has dropped and Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu talks about the drop.


He said, “Really looking forward to the Saints-Bills matchup as it will give the Buffalo defense and New Orleans offense great litmus tests. I think the total drop is warranted as I expect the Bills’ defense to come out on top of this bout.”


Another indoor team watching the total drop in Week 10 is Atlanta, who hosts Dallas.


“I think the sharps are hitting the under in Dallas-Atlanta due to the unknown effectiveness of the offense without Zeke, as well as Tyron Smith. We shouldn’t be too exposed in the end however as the public will pound the over at whatever number,” Cooley added.


One total that jumped up was on the Jets-Buccaneers game, which could have you scratching your head considering both teams are dealing with key injuries and suspensions to their offensive units.


Cooley explained, “I think you can look to the fact that the Jets haven’t been as offensively deficient as expected this year, and the we know that Mr. Harvard will be good for a couple of turnovers in plus territory. The number feels about right at 43 or 44.”


Mr. Harvard is Jets former quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and he’ll be starting for Tampa Bay this week with Jameis Winston nursing a shoulder injury.


Along with the NY-Tampa Bay game, Cooley told VI that BookMaker.eu is also has a lot exposure on the ‘over’ in the Pittsburgh-Indianapolis.


Divisional Contests


Excluding this past Thursday’s result between Seattle and Arizona, the ‘under’ has gone 27-12 (69%) in divisional contests this season and that includes a 4-1 record to the low side last week. The one ‘over’ was the aforementioned ‘bad beat’ between the Packers and Lions.


There’s only one divisional matchup this week and it happens to have the lowest total (37 ½) on the board, plus it’s a rematch game. I mention that because we’ve seen the totals on these games produce the opposite result in the second encounter so far this season.


Green Bay at Chicago: In Week 4, Green Bay dropped Chicago 35-14 at home in a Thursday Night game and the ‘over’ (44 ½) connected behind four passing touchdowns from Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. He’s out for this game and so is Mike Glennon, who started for the Bears in that contest and is now the backup. This game will have Brett Hundley and Mitch Trubisky taking over at QB for the Pack and Bears respectively. Chicago has gone 3-1 to the ‘under’ with the rookie and the lone ‘over’ came against Baltimore, which featured three defensive and special team touchdowns. Hundley should be 2-0 to the ‘under’ and I won’t touch on last Monday’s result anymore.

AFC vs. NFC


With only one divisional game on tap, that leaves us with a handful of non-conference matchups. We haven’t had a solid lean one way or the other but through nine weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 19-15-1 edge in these contests.

N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay: The Jets have shown some life on offense recently (28, 20, 34) and that’s led to a 3-0 ‘over’ run. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay will be limited offensively (QB Wintson, WR Evans) this week and the unit has been held to 13 total points the last two games. Defensively, the Buccaneers are still near the bottom on the league in scoring (24.8 PPG), yards per game (389) and yards per play (5.9). Make a note that it’s rare to see the Jets as road favorites but they’ve been solid (4-1) in this role recently and so has the ‘under’ (4-1) as well.


New Orleans at Buffalo: Saints enter this matchup on a 3-0 ‘under’ run while the Bills are holding a 3-0 ‘over’ streak. I’m still not sold on either team defensively and their overall stats aren’t exactly eye-opening but you can’t ignore the fact that they make plays. Plus it helps that Buffalo (17 takeaways, 1st) and New Orleans (12, 10th) have both created a ton of turnovers. The Bills offense has been much better at home (27.8 PPG) this season and the team has posted 28 PPG off a loss this season. Buffalo was just embarrassed at the Jets last Thursday and will have extra time to focus here. For those of you believing the Saints aren’t the same team on the road, my colleague Kevin Rogers pointed out in his ‘Pick Six’ piece that New Orleans is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 away.


Cleveland at Detroit: The Lions have been a solid ‘over’ bet at home (3-1) but their last four games versus AFC opponents have all went ‘under’ the number and that includes their result vs. the Steelers two weeks ago from Ford Field. The Browns don’t have much of a pulse these days and it appears that the defense seems to pack it in on the road, allowing 24, 31, 33 points and they just gave up 33 at London in a designated home tilt.


Houston at L.A. Rams: I’m guessing the Rams-Over combination will likely be a popular wager in the late games this Sunday and I would advise bettors to be careful. While Los Angeles has put up some crooked numbers on offense this season, it hasn’t played in California in over a month when Seattle stifled them in a 16-10 loss. For whatever reason, the home numbers are down and even the 46 they posted over the Colts in Week 1 featured a couple pick-six scores by the defense. Due to the QB injury, it’s hard to expect much from Houston offensively but its defense could make this game competitive.


Miami at Carolina: (See Below)


Under the Lights


As mentioned above, the MNF result was a fortunate ‘over’ result and that helped the high side go 3-0 in Week 9. The ‘over’ has gone 19-11 (63%) in night games this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Seahawks and Cardinals.


New England at Denver: The late-night chase game could have you scratching your head on this total. The Patriots started the season with four straight ‘over’ wins but followed that run with four consecutive ‘under’ tickets and even though the defense doesn’t boast great statistics, they’ve only allowed 12.8 PPG during this span. At the same time, the New England offense (21.8 PPG) hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately and neither has been the Broncos defense. That unit has allowed 31 PPG in their last four games, resulting in a four-game losing streak albeit three of the losses were on the road. At home, Denver is still stout defensively and they’ve kept Tom Brady in check when he visits. The Pats are 1-3 in the last four road games at Denver and the offense (18.5 PPG) was less than stellar.


Miami at Carolina: Low total (38 ½) for this non-conference matchup and the number seems fair when you look at both offensive units. The Panthers are on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and the defense has been solid (37 points) during this span. Miami has shown a little pop in its last three games (31, 24) but it was also shutout in between those efforts. If you include their other shutout versus the Saints from London, the Dolphins are averaging 9 PPG away from home this season.


Fearless Predictions


Going all in on the ‘under’ in the Bucs-Saints matchup cost me twice but I caught a fortunate push on the Ravens-Titans game and it was nice to see the Broncos offense actually showed up. The weekly deficit ($120) was still in the read and we’re down over five units ($560) with eight weeks of the regular season left. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Pittsburgh-Indianapolis 45


Best Under: Cincinnati-Tennessee 40 ½


Best Team Total: Under 26 New England


Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
< Under 46 Green Bay-Chicago
Over 35 ½ Cleveland-Detroit
Under 53 New England-Denver

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Luck searching for shoulder treatment
November 11, 2017


Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, who went on season-ending injured reserve last week, continues to look for answers about his surgically repaired right shoulder.


Sources told ESPN's Mike Wells and Chris Mortensen that the 28-year-old Luck is in Europe seeking treatment on his throwing shoulder.


The Colts decided to place Luck on the IR Nov. 2 following his visit with doctors to ask why he still had soreness in his right shoulder. The move ended months of speculation about whether Luck would play this season after he underwent surgery in January.


Luck finally returned to practice on Oct. 4 for the first of two times since December 2016. He practiced two more times before being shut down by the team as he continued to have shoulder soreness. Luck, who has not taken a snap in a game since Week 17 last season, underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum on Jan. 15.

--The Cincinnati Bengals placed running back Jeremy Hill on season-ending injured reserve with an ankle injury.


Hill tweaked an ankle in last Saturday's walkthrough and did not practice during the week ahead of Sunday's game against the Tennessee Titans.


Hill's career in Cincinnati is likely over as he will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. His role was reduced in 2017 after the team drafted rookie Joe Mixon in the second round.


The Bengals' second-round pick in 2014, Hill had just 116 rushing yards and no touchdowns on 37 carries this season despite starting seven games. In his rookie season, he rushed for 1,124 yards and nine touchdowns.


--Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Roy Miller was arrested in Jacksonville, Fla., and charged with domestic battery.


Miller, 30, was taken into custody on suspicion of domestic battery and booked into the Duval County Jail at 4:53 a.m. ET, according to the Jacksonville Sheriff's Office Department of Corrections.


The incident involved a minor injury, according to local news outlets. Miller was released on his own recognizance after an initial court appearance Saturday afternoon. Another hearing was set for Nov. 28.


With the AFC West-leading Chiefs (6-3) on a bye this week, Miller traveled to Florida.


--The Miami Dolphins activated safety T.J. McDonald off the reserve/suspended list.


McDonald was suspended the first eight games this season for violating the NFL's policy and program for substances of abuse.


McDonald, 26, pleaded no contest in January to a reduced form of DUI. He was sentenced to 36 months probation and required to serve 200 hours of community service.


The 6-foot-2, 223-pound McDonald signed a one-year deal with the Dolphins as an unrestricted free agent on March 31. The team then signed him to a four-year extension worth $24 million, including $10 million guaranteed, in September.


--The Seattle Seahawks left Arizona Thursday night with a lengthy list of injuries as over 10 players had to leave the game against the Cardinals at one point or another.


And while players weren't fond of Thursday Night Football games before their win in the desert, wide receiver Doug Baldwin was especially critical of the endeavor in the game's aftermath. Baldwin believes the Thursday games should be banned.


"This s--- should be illegal," Baldwin said. "It is not OK. It's not OK. You can quote me on that. This is not OK. ... Absolutely, guys do not have enough time to recover. You can't recover in four days."


Baldwin was one of at least 15 players hurt or injured in the game between the two teams. He had a hip issue flare up on him in pregame warmups. A dozen Seahawks in total eventually had injuries in some fashion coming out of the game.

 

[BAGIANT]

Thanks for the effort CNotes. It's always appreciated!

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


GB at CHI 01:00 PM
GB +4.5
O 37.5 *****


PIT at IND 01:00 PM
PIT -10.5
O 47.0 *****


NYJ at TB 01:00 PM
NYJ +1.0 *****
U 44.0


CLE at DET 01:00 PM
DET -10.0 *****
O 43.0


CIN at TEN 01:00 PM
CIN +4.5
O 40.5 *****


MIN at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS +1.0
U 42.5 *****


NO at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF +2.0
U 48.0 *****


LAC at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC -5.0 *****
O 41.0 *****


HOU at LAR 04:05 PM
LAR -12.0
O 46.0 *****


DAL at ATL 04:25 PM
DAL +3.5
O 48.5 *****


NYG at SF 04:25 PM
SF +3.0
U 41.0 *****


NE at DEN 08:30 PM
NE -7.0
U 45.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Today, Week 10
November 12, 2017


SCOREBOARD

Monday, Nov. 13


Miami at Carolina, 8:30 p.m. EST, ESPN. The Dolphins (4-4) are averaging a league-low 14.5 points per game, but Jay Cutler returned last week from cracked ribs and had his best performance with Miami by completing a career-high 81 percent of passes (34 of 42) for 311 yards with three touchdowns against Oakland. The Panthers (6-3) try to keep pace with first-place New Orleans (7-2) in the NFC North. Cam Newton has been solid in five previous Monday night appearances, averaging 273.8 yards passing with 11 TDs and four INTs.


---


STARS


Passing


- Jared Goff, Rams, passed for a career-high 355 yards and four touchdowns to lead Los Angeles to its fourth straight victory, 33-7 over Houston.


- Case Keenum, Vikings, threw touchdowns to four different receivers to build a big lead, and NFC North-leading Minnesota won its fifth in a row by beating Washington 38-30.


- Tom Brady, Patriots, had three TD passes and finished 25 of 34 for 266 yards in New England's 41-16 victory at Denver.


- Matthew Stafford, Lions, threw three touchdown passes in the second half to help Detroit come back and beat winless Cleveland 38-24.


- Marcus Mariota, Titans, tossed a 7-yard touchdown pass to DeMarco Murray with 36 seconds left and Tennessee rallied to beat Cincinnati 24-20 for its fourth consecutive victory.


- C.J. Beathard, 49ers, threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns and ran for a third score to lead San Francisco to its first win of the season with a 31-21 victory over the New York Giants.


- Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, threw two second-half touchdown passes to erase a 14-point deficit and help Pittsburgh top Indianapolis 20-17.


---

Rushing


- Mark Ingram, Saints, had 131 yards rushing and scored three times in New Orleans' 47-10 victory at Buffalo.


- DeMarco Murray, Titans, ran for two touchdowns and also caught a 7-yard TD pass with 36 seconds left to help lead Tennessee past Cincinnati 24-20.


- Alvin Kamara, Saints, ran for 106 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries and also caught five passes for 32 yards as New Orleans rolled past Buffalo 47-10.


- Isaiah Crowell, Browns, had a season-high 90 yards and a score on 16 carries in Cleveland's 38-24 loss at Detroit.


- Carlos Hyde, 49ers, rushed for 98 yards on 17 attempts in San Francisco's 31-21 victory over the New York Giants.


---


Receiving


- Adam Thielen, Vikings, had eight catches for a season-high 166 yards in Minnesota's 38-30 win at Washington.


- Michael Thomas, Saints, caught nine passes for 117 yards in New Orleans' 47-10 rout of Buffalo.


- Robert Woods, Rams, finished with eight catches for 171 yards, including a career-best 94-yard TD reception, in Los Angeles' 33-7 win over Houston.


- Austin Ekeler, Chargers, had two touchdown catches in Los Angeles' 20-17 overtime defeat at Jacksonville.


- Sterling Shepard, Giants, caught 11 passes for 142 yards in New York's 31-21 loss at San Francisco.


---


Special Teams


- Dion Lewis, Patriots, returned a kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown to help lead New England to a 41-16 win at Denver.


- Josh Lambo, Jaguars, made a 30-yard field goal with 3:12 remaining in overtime, giving Jacksonville a 20-17 victory against the Los Angeles Chargers.


- Chris Boswell, Steelers, kicked a 33-yard field goal as time expired to give Pittsburgh a 20-17 victory at Indianapolis.


- Corey Grant, Jaguars, ran for a 56-yard touchdown on a fake punt in Jacksonville's 20-17 overtime win against the Los Angeles Chargers.


- Greg Zuerlein, Rams, kicked four field goals in Los Angeles' 33-7 rout of Houston.


- Corey Liuget, Chargers, blocked an extra-point attempt in the first quarter of Los Angeles' 20-17 overtime loss at Jacksonville. It marked the first blocked PAT for the Chargers since John Parrella knocked away a kick by Kansas City's Todd Peterson in 2001.


---


Defense


- Adrian Clayborn, Falcons, had a franchise-record six sacks, forced two fumbles and recovered a fumble in Atlanta's 27-7 win against Dallas.


- Nevin Lawson, Lions, forced a fumble, recovered it and ran it into the end zone 44 yards for a score in Detroit's 38-24 win over Cleveland.


- Nick Perry, Packers, had three sacks to help Green Bay beat Chicago 23-16 and snap a three-game losing streak.


- Tre Boston, Chargers, had two interceptions in Los Angeles' 20-17 overtime loss at Jacksonville.


- D.J. Swearinger, Redskins, intercepted consecutive throws by Case Keenum in Washington's 38-30 loss to Minnesota.


---

STREAKS & STATS


New Orleans rushed for 298 yards, including 131 by Mark Ingram and 106 by Alvin Kamara, and a franchise-record six touchdowns against the Bills in a 47-10 rout. The Saints are the fifth team in NFL history, including the postseason, to rush for at least 295 yards and six TDs in a single game, joining the 1940 Chicago Bears (Dec. 8, 1940, NFL championship), 1950 New York Giants (Nov. 19, 1950), 1951 Los Angeles Rams (Nov. 18, 1951) and 1957 Cleveland Browns (Nov. 24, 1957). ... Tennessee rallied to beat Cincinnati 24-20 for its fourth consecutive victory, the Titans' longest winning streak since getting five straight in 2009. ... Titans kicker Ryan Succop's NFL record streak of successful field goals inside the 50 finally ended at 56 after his first attempt, a 48-yarder in the second quarter against the Bengals. He came in having easily topped the previous league mark of 46 in a row, set by Matt Bryant of Atlanta between 2013 and 2015. It was Succop's first miss from inside 50 yards since Sept. 21, 2014, in a loss at Cincinnati. ... Tampa Bay entered its 15-10 win over the New York Jets with a league-low eight sacks. The Buccaneers nearly doubled that as six players - Robert Ayers Jr., Gerald McCoy, Kendell Beckwith, Darryl Tapp, Clinton McDonald and Will Clarke - got to Josh McCown. ... The Los Angeles Rams cruised past Houston 33-7 to improve to 7-2, their best start since 2001, when they went 8-1 in St. Louis and made the Super Bowl. ... New England's 41-16 win at Denver was its 12th straight on the road. They Patriots also won a dozen consecutive road games from 2006-08. The NFL record is 18, set by the Joe Montana-led San Francisco 49ers from 1988-90.


---

MILESTONES


Atlanta's Adrian Clayborn had a career-high and franchise-record six sacks, forced two fumbles and recovered a fumble in the Falcons' 27-7 win against Dallas. The six sacks are tied for the second most in a game, behind only Derrick Thomas' seven in 1990, since sacks became an official statistic in 1982. ... The Falcons' Matt Ryan has 40,073 passing yards in 151 career games, reaching 40,000 in the fewest games in NFL history, surpassing the previous record held by Drew Brees (152). ... New England's Tom Brady won his 86th game as a starter in the Patriots' 41-16 victory at Denver, breaking a tie for first in NFL history with Peyton Manning.


---


SAINTS MARCHING


New Orleans defeated Buffalo 47-10 to improve to 7-2, becoming the second team since the merger in 1970 to start 0-2 and win its next seven games. The 1993 Dallas Cowboys are the only other team to accomplish that feat, and won the Super Bowl that season.


---

GOFF GOES OFF


Jared Goff completed 25 of 37 passes (67.6 percent) for 355 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 125.4 passer rating in the Los Angeles Rams' 33-7 win over Houston. Goff passed for 311 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions for a 146.8 passer rating last week, becoming the first player in franchise history to throw for at least 300 yards and three TDs with no INTs in consecutive games. Goff threw a 94-yard touchdown pass to Robert Woods, the third-longest offensive play from scrimmage in franchise history and the longest since 1964, when Bill Munson tossed a 95-yard TD pass to Bucky Pope in 1964.


---


THEY COME IN BUNCHES


Adrian Clayborn set an Atlanta record with six sacks and forced a pair of fumbles to lead the Falcons past the Dallas Cowboys 27-7. He surpassed the team record of five sacks in a game, held by Chuck Smith and Hall of Famer Claude Humphrey, and matched the second-most sacks in NFL history. Derrick Thomas, Osi Umenyiora and Fred Dean are the only other players credited with six sacks in a game, while Thomas holds the league record with seven for Kansas City against the Seahawks on Nov. 11, 1990. Clayborn had more sacks in this contest than any other season except for his rookie year in 2011, when he had 7 1/2. He came into Sunday with two sacks on the season and 22 1/2 over his seven-year career.


---

BRETT GETS A `W'


Brett Hundley threw for 212 yards and a touchdown, leading Green Bay to its first win since losing Aaron Rodgers, a 23-16 victory over the Chicago Bears that snapped a three-game losing streak. Hundley, making his third start for Rodgers, completed 18 of 25 passes - even though his hamstring tightened during the game - to help the Packers win their eighth straight at Soldier Field counting the playoffs. He also became the first Green Bay starting quarterback other than Brett Favre or Rodgers to win against the Bears since Don Majkowski on Dec. 17, 1989.


---

BOSWELL BOUNCES BACK


Chris Boswell kicked a 33-yard field goal as time expired to left Pittsburgh to a 20-17 victory at Indianapolis. It was the culmination of an otherwise rugged day for Boswell, who had an extra point blocked that was nearly returned for two points by Colts safety Matthias Farley. Boswell also had a chance to give Pittsburgh the lead with a 37-yard field goal with 6:17 left, but the ball hit the right goal post and bounced off.


---


CLUTCH PERFORMER


Detroit's Matthew Stafford threw three touchdown passes, including the winning score to Eric Ebron with 10:46 remaining in the fourth quarter, in the Lions' 38-24 win over Cleveland. The performance marked Stafford's 30th career winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime. Among players who made their NFL debut since 1970, Stafford has reached 30 winning drives in the fewest number of career games (118).


---


ONE FOR THE AGES


Pittsburgh rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster had five catches for 97 yards with a touchdown, while Indianapolis' Adam Vinatieri had a field goal and two extra points in the Steelers' 20-17 win over the Colts. It marked the first time in NFL history that a player under the age of 21 (Smith-Schuster, 20 years old) and a player over the age of 40 (Vinatieri, 44 years old) each scored a point in the same game.


---


GLOOMY DAYS


After falling to 0-9 with a 38-24 loss at Detroit, the Cleveland Browns are headed toward NFL infamy a year after losing their first 14 games in coach Hue Jackson's debut season and finishing 1-15. Jackson is 1-24, a 25-game record since 1960 that is better than only Tampa Bay's John McKay 0-25 mark. And those Bucs were a first-year expansion team.


---


QUIET DEBUT


Buffalo wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, acquired in a trade with Carolina on Oct. 31, finished with just three catches for a team-best 42 yards in the Bills' 47-10 loss to New Orleans.


---

FITZ'S REVENGE


Ryan Fitzpatrick made his first start for Tampa Bay in place of the injured Jameis Winston and got a win against his former team. Fitzpatrick, who spent the past two seasons with the New York Jets, completed 17 of 34 passes for 187 yards and was intercepted once in a 15-10 win that snapped a five-game losing streak for the Buccaneers.


---


SAN FRANCISCO'S TREAT


San Francisco took a lead for the first time since Oct. 1 at Arizona when it got a field goal from Robbie Gould on the opening drive of the 49ers' 31-21 win over the New York Giants. The five games without holding a lead tied a franchise worst, set in 1963. The 49ers also got their initial first down while holding a lead this season on a 40-yard pass from Beathard to Louis Murphy in the third quarter.


---


MISSING ZEKE


Dallas started former Pro Bowler Alfred Morris at running back in place of the suspended Ezekiel Elliott, but he didn't have much of an impact beyond a 20-yard run in the Cowboys' 27-7 loss at Atlanta. Morris finished with 53 yards on 11 carries. Rod Smith ran three times for 14 yards, while Darren McFadden was thrown for a 2-yard loss on his lone carry. Quarterback Dak Prescott chipped in with 42 yards on six carries.


---

SIDELINED


Indianapolis quarterback Jacoby Brissett was being evaluated for a head injury by team doctors even though he had cleared through the NFL's concussion protocol late in the third quarter of the Colts' 20-17 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Team officials said Brissett was initially evaluated for a concussion on the sideline twice - once with team doctors and once by the unaffiliated neurological consultant. He passed both times. Then, after the game, he developed concussion-like symptoms again and returned to the protocol. ... Pittsburgh cornerback Joe Haden broke his left leg in the game. Starting safety Mike Mitchell left on a cart with an injured right ankle and did not return. ... Running back Devonta Freeman was hurt on Atlanta's second offensive play in the Falcons' win over the Cowboys. ... Dallas linebacker Sean Lee also went out in the first quarter with a hamstring injury. ... New Orleans running back Daniel Lasco had feelings in his extremities after sustaining a spine injury while tackling Brandon Tate on a kickoff return six minutes into the second quarter at Buffalo. Lasco was loaded into an ambulance and transported to a Buffalo-area hospital. ... Green Bay running back Ty Montgomery ran for a 37-yard touchdown in the second quarter, but sat out the second half of the win against the Bears because of a rib injury. That left the Packers without their top two running backs after Aaron Jones hurt his knee in the first quarter.


---


SPEAKING


''I'm exhausted right now. I'm shot. I'm shot. ... I'm living and dying on every single play with every call that we have. So after the game is over, I'm shot.'' - Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone, after the Jaguars beat the Los Angeles Chargers 20-17 in overtime.


---


''AC went crazy today.'' - Atlanta wide receiver Julio Jones on teammate Adrian Clayborn, who set a franchise record with a career-high six sacks in the Falcons' 27-7 win over Dallas.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Chiefs DT Miller abused wife
November 12, 2017


The Seattle Seahawks likely violated the NFL's concussion protocol when they allowed quarterback Russell Wilson to re-enter Thursday night's game without a concussion evaluation.


A violation occurred when Wilson re-entered the game against the Arizona Cardinals without going to the locker room and being cleared by a team doctor and an independent physician, a source close to the situation told ESPN.


The NFL announced Friday that the league is conducting a "thorough review" of the situation.


Wilson briefly left midway through the third quarter of the Seahawks' 22-16 win after taking a hit to the chin from Cardinals linebacker Karlos Dansby. Referee Walt Anderson then sent Wilson off the field for a test.


--New Orleans Saints special teams player Daniel Lasco was taken off the field by ambulance during Sunday's game against the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field and taken to a local hospital.


The team announced Lasco suffered a spinal cord injury, but he has movement in his extremities.


Lasco was injured while tackling Buffalo's Brandon Tate on a kickoff return. He laid face-down on the turf for several minutes before trainers helped him onto a stretcher.


Also, Saints linebacker A.J. Klein also went to the locker room with a hamstring injury.


--Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict may be in trouble with the NFL again after being ejected in the second quarter of the game against the Tennessee Titans.


Burfict was part of a pileup near the left corner of the end zone on Marcus Mariota's eight-yard run to the 1. Following the play, Burfict made contact with an official and was immediately booted by referee Jeff Triplette.


Burfict, who drew a personal foul a few plays prior to his ejection for a late hit on running back DeMarco Murray out of bounds, has been fined and suspended on multiple occasions in his career for unsportsmanlike conduct and late hits.


Meanwhile, cornerback Adam Jones left after suffering a concussion in the third quarter.

--Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman and Dallas Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee both left the matchup between the teams with injuries.


Freeman left the game against Dallas early in the first quarter and was taken to the locker room to be evaluated for a head injury. The team late announced Freeman had a concussion and would not return to the game.


Lee left the game in the first quarter because of a hamstring injury and he was ruled out for the rest of the game.


--Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Roy Miller, who was arrested in Jacksonville, Fla., early Saturday morning and charged with domestic battery, is accused in the police report of dragging his wife by the hair, tearing a braid from her head and nearly ripping off her shirt.


According to the Jacksonville Sheriff's Office police report obtained by ESPN, the altercation between the 6-foot-1, 301-pound Miller and Nicole Miller began with an argument after the couple returned home separately.


Miller, 30, was taken into custody on suspicion of domestic battery and booked into the Duval County Jail at 4:53 a.m. ET, according to the Jacksonville Sheriff's Office. With the AFC West-leading Chiefs (6-3) on a bye this week, Miller traveled to his home in Jacksonville.


--Minnesota Vikings sacks leader Everson Griffen was inactive for Sunday's game against the Washington Redskins.


Griffen, who entered the day third in the NFL with 10 sacks, has a foot injury and was listed as questionable, but Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said during the week he expected Griffen would play.


The Vikings were also without starting right tackle Mike Remmers (concussion). Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, activated this week, was active.


--The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without quarterback Jameis Winston (shoulder), defensive lineman Will Gholston (neck) and wide receiver Mike Evans (one-game suspension) for the game against the New York Jets at Raymond James Stadium.


Additionally, Tampa Bay was without cornerback Robert McClain (hamstring).


For the Jets, running back Matt Forte (knee), who had a season-high 77 rushing yards in New York's victory against the Buffalo Bills on Nov. 2, missed the game.


--Cleveland Browns rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer left in the third quarter against the Detroit Lions with a rib injury after taking a hard hit.


He returned after missing two series with 4:28 remaining.


Kizer was tackled by cornerback Quandre Diggs on a blitz while throwing an incompletion. He was replaced by Cody Kessler.

--Buffalo Bills defensive end Jerry Hughes left Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints with a shin injury.


Hughes was hurt late in the second quarter while the Saints were driving in for a field goal. He limped to the sideline without assistance.


--Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones departed the game against the Chicago Bears because of a knee injury.


The Packers later lost running back Ty Montgomery when he injured his ribs.


Third-string running back Jamaal Williams replaced Jones and Montgomery in the second half.


--Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Joe Haden left the game against the Indianapolis Colts in the first quarter because of a left leg injury.


Haden was taken to the locker room, and he returned to the sideline on crutches. He was ruled out for the rest of the game.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL roundup: Packers snap three-game skid
November 12, 2017


CHICAGO -- Brett Hundley passed for 212 yards and one touchdown, Nick Perry registered three sacks, and the Green Bay Packers held on for a 23-16 win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday.


Green Bay snapped a three-game losing streak and won for the first time since quarterback Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone. The Packers have won 14 of their past 16 games against Chicago.


Rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 21 of 35 passes for 297 yards and one touchdown for the Bears. Chicago lost its second consecutive game and fell to 2-3 at home.

Patriots 41, Broncos 16


DENVER -- Tom Brady threw for three touchdowns and Dion Lewis spearheaded a dazzling special teams performance with a 103-yard kickoff return for a touchdown as New England routed Denver.


Brady's first touchdown pass was caught by Rex Burkhead, who also blocked a punt to set up one of Stephen Gostkowski's two field goals. Lewis also ran for a touchdown in helping the Patriots win on the road for the 12th straight time.


The streak ties a club record and is second only in NFL history to the San Francisco 49ers' record 18-game road winning streak from 1988 to 1990. The Broncos lost their fifth straight since a 3-1 start and struggled offensively to complete drives, settling for Brandon McManus field goals three times in the first half.


Steelers 20, Colts 17


INDIANAPOLIS -- Chris Boswell's 33-yard field goal as time expired rallied Pittsburgh past Indianapolis.


Ben Roethlisberger's 32-yard pass to Antonio Brown to the Colts' 18-yard line with 35 seconds left set up Boswell's winning kick after he had missed a 37-yarder with 6:17 remaining that hit the right upright.


Pittsburgh rallied from a 17-3 third-quarter deficit, finishing the game on a 17-0 run.


Jaguars 20, Chargers 17


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Josh Lambo connected on a 30-yard field goal in overtime as Jacksonville stunned Los Angeles.


Lambo also kicked a 34-yard field goal with three seconds left in the fourth quarter to tie the game. He kicked for the Chargers the past two seasons before being cut at the end of the preseason.


The Chargers shut down Jaguars rookie running back Leonard Fournette. The fourth overall pick in the draft was held to 33 yards on 17 carries.

Falcons 27, Cowboys 7


ATLANTA -- With Dallas forced to play with suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott sitting out his first of at least four games, Atlanta defensive end Adrian Clayborn made the Cowboys pay.


Clayborn sacked Dak Prescott six times, setting an Atlanta record, and the Falcons snapped the Cowboys' three-game winning streak. Clayborn fell one shy of the NFL single-game record held by former Kansas City Chiefs star Derrick Thomas (1990).


Matt Ryan, who was 22 of 29 for 215 yards, threw two short touchdown passes and the Falcons won for just the second time in their past six games.

Lions 38, Browns 24


DETROIT -- Matthew Stafford threw three second-half touchdown passes and Detroit rallied for a victory over winless Cleveland.


Stafford completed 17 of 26 passes for 249 yards. Ameer Abdullah had 52 rushing yards on 11 carries and a touchdown for the Lions. Golden Tate caught six passes for 97 yards and a score, while cornerback Nevin Lawson returned a fumble 44 yards for a touchdown.


Cleveland rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer passed for 232 yards and a touchdown and also carried seven times for 57 yards.


Buccaneers 15, Jets 10


TAMPA, Fla. -- Three field goals from Patrick Murray and a touchdown reception from running back Charles Sims helped Tampa Bay defeat New York.


The Buccaneers, who never trailed despite playing without injured quarterback Jameis Winston, broke a five-game losing streak.


The Jets, who reached Tampa Bay territory on only three of their 12 drives, were limited to 276 yards. Tampa Bay, which came into the game with an NFL-low eight sacks, had six on Sunday against the Jets.

Saints 47, Bills 10


ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Mark Ingram II rushed for 131 yards and three touchdowns to power New Orleans over Buffalo.


Rookie Alvin Kamara ran for 106 yards and a touchdown, rookie Trey Edmunds had a 41-yard rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter and quarterback Drew Brees even ran in for a score as the Saints racked up 298 rushing yards in winning their seventh straight game. The Saints set a team record with six rushing touchdowns and had their third-highest rushing total in franchise history.


It was also the first time the Bills allowed six rushing touchdowns. It was the team's worst home loss since a 56-10 defeat against the New England Patriots on Nov. 18, 2007, and the worst defensive performance under new head coach Sean McDermott.

Vikings 38, Redskins 30


LANDOVER, Md. -- Case Keenum threw a career-high four touchdown passes, Adam Thielen had 166 receiving yards and Minnesota defeated Washington for their fifth straight win.


Keenum finished 21 of 29 for 304 yards. He threw two second-half interceptions. Thielen had eight catches, one for a touchdown as Keenum touchdown passes went to four different players.


Quarterback Kirk Cousins passed for one touchdown and ran for two more. He was 26 of 45 for 327 yards and one interception for the Redskins.

Titans 24, Bengals 20


NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- DeMarco Murray stretched the ball just across the goal line on a 7-yard touchdown pass from Marcus Mariota with 36 seconds left as Tennessee rallied to edge Cincinnati.


Murray's third score of the day capped a 12-play drive. Mariota finished 25 of 44 for 264 yards with an interception as the Titans won their fourth straight game.


Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton finished 20 of 35 for 265 yards, but lost a pair of fumbles in the second quarter, one leading to Murray's second touchdown.

49ers 31, Giants 21


SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Rookie quarterback C.J. Beathard passed for 288 yards and two touchdowns, leading San Francisco to a victory over New York, its first win under first-year head coach Kyle Shanahan after a 0-9 start.


Beathard completed 19 of 25 passes with touchdowns of 83 yards to wide receiver Marquise Goodwin and 47 yards to tight end Garrett Celek in the second quarter. Beathard, who was intercepted once, ran for an 11-yard score in the fourth quarter.


Quarterback Eli Manning completed 28 of 37 passes for 273 yards and two touchdowns for the Giants. He started his 208th consecutive game, tying his brother, Peyton, for the second longest streak in NFL history by a quarterback, behind only Brett Favre's streak of 297.

Rams 33, Texans 7


LOS ANGELES -- Quarterback Jared Goff threw three touchdown passes and Los Angeles rolled to its fourth consecutive win with a victory over Houston.


The win allowed the Rams to maintain a one-game lead over the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. The Texans (3-6) dropped their third straight.


A 94-yard touchdown pass from Goff to Robert Woods with 9:23 left in the third quarter turned a two-point Rams lead into a 16-7 cushion and seemed to pump life into an offense that struggled in the first half.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday Night Football Best Bets:


NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


11/12/2017 10-14-0 41.67% -27.00
11/09/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
11/06/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


Totals.........18 - 24 - 2......42.85%.......-42.00


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total


11/12/2017................1 - 2..................-4.50...............1 - 8............-39.00...............-43.50
11/09/2017..............0 - 0 - 1...............+0.00..............1 - 0............+5.00................+5.00
11/06/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 1.............-5.50................-0.50
11/05/2017................0 - 2..................-11.00..............3 - 1............+9.50................-1.50
11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00


Totals........................3 - 4..................-5.50................4 - 10...........-35.00..............-40.50


*******************


11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM........New York Jets + 3....34 - 21............Winner

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s six-pack


Six most popular picks for Week 10 in the Westgate Super Contest:
6) Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (657)- W
5) New Jersey Jets -2.5 (666)- L
4) Los Angeles Rams -12 (697)- W
3) Washington Redskins +1 (703)- L
2) Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 (719)- L
1) Buffalo Bills +3 (1,182)- L
Season record of top 6 picks: 23-37


********************


Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday


Vikings 38, Redskins 30— Minnesota won its last five games, covered its last four; Case Keenum was 21-29/304 passing with four TD’s. Keenum played for the Rams LY; LA was 4-5 in his starts before Jared Goff became the starter— Goff and the Rams visit the Twin Cities next Sunday.


Jaguars 20, Chargers 17 OT— If you had the Chargers +3.5, take a big sigh of relief; LA had ball in last 2:00, up 17-14- they fumbled and Jaguars ran ball back for an apparent TD, but replay said the defender was down when he picked the ball up, so the TD was nullified, Jax kicked a FG and the game went to overtime.


Chargers have four losses by 3 or less points; they had 15 drives in this game, ran 67 plays, but never got into the red zone- they were only 3-15 on 3rd down.


Seahawks 22, Cardinals 16— When Russell Wilson gets inducted into the Hall of Fame, they’ll show the 54-yard pass he completed to Doug Baldwin in the 4th quarter of this game, after a scramble that looked a lot like Fran Tarkenton in his early Viking days.


Arizona QB Stanton sprained his knee, may miss next week’s game, which could mean a QB showdown between Blaine Gabbert/TJ Yates. Seahawks were penalized 12 more times for 108 yards, but did enough to stay a game behind the Rams in the NFC West.


Saints 47, Bills 10— New Orleans ran ball for 298 yards, had 32 first downs, also had an 18-yard edge in field position as they won their 7th straight game. Saints allowed 17 or less points in six of last seven games, and in the 7th game, their defense SCORED three TD’s, vs Detroit.


Saints became the first team since 1941 to run for six touchdowns and not punt in that game.


Packers 23, Bears 16— Worst replay challenge ever? In 2nd quarter, Bears would’ve had a first down around the Green Bay 2-yard line, but they challenged that the ball carrier had scored a TD, when in fact, he fumbled and the correct call was a touchback. Whoops.


Hundley wins his first NFL road start but also tweaked his hamstring- they play Baltimore next.


Titans 24, Bengals 20— Tennessee outgained Bengals 416-308, as once again Cincy ran only 50 plays- they’ve run 87 plays total the last two games.


Score should’ve been more one-sided; Titan WR Matthews dropped a sure TD in 2nd quarter, followed by Succop having his streak of 56 consecutive FG’s under 50 yards end with a miss. Later on, rookie WR Davis fumbled on the 1-yard line for a touchback when the Titans were threatening to pull away for good. Bengals aren’t a good team.


Buccaneers 15, Jets 10— Tampa Bay had a 17-yard edge in field position, as Fitzpatrick beat the team he started for the last two years. Jets still haven’t trailed at halftime since Week 2, but they are 4-6 heading into their bye week. Jets were held to 3 or 7 2nd half points in four of their last five games.


Steelers 20, Colts 17— Indy scored two TD’s, on 60-61 yard pass plays; they led 10-3 at half but let this slip away at end. Steelers tied game with a 10-yard T drive after an INT, then won game with a FG at the gun. Pittsburgh won its last four games, three by 6 or less points. Four of last six TD’s Steelers allowed came on plays of 57+ yards.


Lions 38, Browns 24— Cleveland led 10-0 early, then 24-17 with 2:23 left in 3rd quarter, but if you took the Browns +13:
a) Don’t bet on the Browns and…….
b) they didn’t cover the spread, despite outgaining Lions 413-345.


Right now, Cleveland has the #1 pick and the Giants #2 pick— will they both take QB’s? Will Giants trade Eli Manning to Denver or Jacksonville?


Rams 33, Texans 7— Houston turned ball over four times (-4), once in red zone when Texans led 7-6 just before halftime. From that point on, it was all Rams, who gained 205 yards in the third quarter and dominated the second half.


Houston won’t make the playoffs this year, but if Deshaun Watson rehabs well, they’re going to be very optimistic about 2018. As for the rest of this year, wouldn’t be surprised if TJ Yates gets the nod under center for their next gam, against Arizona.


Falcons 27, Cowboys 7— Atlanta sacked Dak Prescott eight times; turns out Ezekiel Elliott’s absence wasn’t the big deal Sunday, it was LT Tyron Smith. Cowboys’ only TD drive was 21 yards. Both teams are now 5-4 and Elliott is out for another five games- could be that neither one of these teams makes the playoffs.


49ers 31, Giants 21— Three of SF’s four TD’s came on plays of 33+ yards; only 2 of their 13 TD’s coming into this game were on plays of 20+ yards. 49ers were 8-12 on third down- they gained 474 yards, averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt.


At this point, you wonder if Giant ownership has begun the search for a new coach/GM, and if so, how far along are they in the process. Losing this game puts the Giants ahead of SF on the draft list for next April; they’d have the #2 pick behind Cleveland right now.


Patriots 41, Broncos 16— Has a special teams coach ever been fired at halftime of a game? In the first 19:40 Sunday night, Denver lost a fumbled punt, had a punt blocked and allowed a TD on a kick return. In the second half, they had 12 men on the field for a punt, giving New England a first down. No bueno.


Sunday was Al Michaels’ 73rd birthday; I hope I’m as sharp as he is when I’m 73.

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Dolphins at Panthers
November 12, 2017


LAST WEEK


The Dolphins (4-4 SU, 3-3-2 ATS) play their third consecutive game in primetime, but are 0-2 so far in their first two night contests with losses to the Ravens and Raiders. Following a 40-0 blowout at the hands of Baltimore, Miami hung with Oakland before falling short in a 27-24 setback. The Dolphins managed a push as three-point underdogs, while quarterback Jay Cutler put together his finest game of the season by completing 34-of-42 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns.


Miami picked up the push after trailing 27-16 in the fourth quarter as Cutler connected with tight end Julius Thomas on a 15-yard touchdown pass, followed up by a two-point conversion to cut the deficit to three. The Dolphins dropped to 6-2 in games decided by three points or less since the start of the 2016 season, while losing for the first time in this situation at Hard Rock Stadium.


Carolina (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) picked up its second straight divisional victory by rallying from a 10-0 deficit to knock off Atlanta, 20-17. The Panthers depended on their ground game to chew up the Falcons’ defense by racking up 201 yards rushing, including touchdowns by Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey. Newton threw for only 137 yards, but rushed for 86 to help improve Carolina to 2-1 inside the NFC South following a dreadful 1-5 record within the division last season.


The Panthers own the league’s best defense from a yardage-per-game standpoint by limiting the opposition to an average of 274.1 yards a contest. However, Carolina yielded 355 yards in last week’s win over Atlanta, while getting outgained in three of the past four games. Five times this season, the Panthers have allowed 17 points or less, while going 2-2 in four games in which they allowed 24 points or more.


TOPSY-TURVY TOTALS


From a totals perspective, these teams have gone in opposite directions of late. Miami is riding a 3-0 streak to the OVER in the last three contests following five consecutive UNDERS to begin the season. Carolina put together four straight OVERS from Week 3 through Week 6, but the Panthers have cashed the UNDER in the last three contests. Last season, Carolina compiled a 5-2-1 mark to the UNDER at Bank of America Stadium, but are 2-2 to the UNDER in four home games in 2017.

TERRIBLE TWOS


Since Adam Gase took over as head coach prior to the 2016 season, the Dolphins have lost consecutive games four times. In the first three instances, Miami bounced back with a victory, beating Cleveland in Week 3 and Pittsburgh in Week 6 last season, while knocking off Tennessee in Week 5 this season. We’ll see if Miami can avoid its first three-game losing streak since 2015.


SERIES HISTORY


The Dolphins and Panthers have met up only five times since Carolina entered the league in 1995. Miami captured the first four matchups, including a 24-17 triumph as 3 ½-point underdogs in Charlotte back in 2009. Carolina won the most recent meeting in 2013 at Hard Rock Stadium, 20-16 as Newton hooked up with tight end Greg Olson on a one-yard touchdown pass in the final minute for the go-ahead score. Miami managed a cover as 4 ½-point underdogs, improving to 5-0 ATS lifetime against Carolina.


UNDER THE LIGHTS

The Panthers have won four of six Monday night games since 2012, while splitting a pair of games last season. Carolina is 1-2 ATS at home in this span with the only cover coming in an exciting finish over New England, 24-20 in 2013 as three-point favorites. The Dolphins have yet to play a Monday night game this season, while last losing when taking the field on a Monday in a 2015 home loss to the Giants. Since 2010, the Dolphins own a dreadful 0-7 ATS mark in Monday night action, including an 0-4 ATS mark as an underdog.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson provides his views on this matchup, starting with Carolina, “The Panthers are 21st in the league in total offense and 24th in scoring offense. On a per carry basis, the Panthers are the sixth-worst rushing team in the NFL gaining just 3.7 yards per carry as rookie Christian McCaffrey hasn’t been the high impact rookie many expected to see. Newton also hasn’t come close to his 2015 MVP numbers, 20th in the league in Total QBR and 27th in QB Rating.”


Shifting over to the Dolphins, the offense has been the main reason for the team’s struggles as Nelson outlines Miami’s offensive issues, “The Dolphins have averaged just 14.5 points per game for the worst scoring average in the NFL, even behind winless San Francisco and Cleveland. However, the Dolphins have scored 20, 31, and 24 in three of the last four weeks.”


This is a crucial game for both squads as the Dolphins still have a difficult schedule ahead, although Carolina’s slate isn’t as difficult, “The Dolphins still have to play the Patriots and Bills twice each in the final seven weeks while also drawing a road game at Kansas City as losing this week would greatly cripple their chances to finish above .500. For Carolina, the schedule out of the bye week is manageable, but they still have two difficult division road games remaining plus a home date with the Vikings as the chance to reach 10 wins might hinge on this game,” Nelson notes.


From a trends standpoint, handicapper Vince Akins points out a trend that goes against Miami following a successful game through the air, “The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS since Nov 09, 2014 after they threw for at least 300 yards last game.” The only time this situation occurred in 2017 came in the 40-0 blowout loss at Baltimore two weeks ago, while scoring a combined seven points in two road opportunities in this trend under Gase.


BOOKMAKER’S TAKE


Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says there isn’t a strong opinion either way from bettors, “The spread has held steady since opening as there isn’t much sharp interest as of yet. Surprisingly, the public is pretty split up to this point. The pro action we have received on this game has come on the UNDER, which we’ve dropped a full point since opening.”

 

[CNOTES]

Monday, November 13


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MIAMI (4 - 4) at CAROLINA (6 - 3) - 11/13/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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Monday, November 13


MIAMI @ CAROLINA
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Miami
Carolina is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home




---------------------------------------------------


Monday, November 13


Miami @ Carolina


Game 275-276
November 13, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
128.515
Carolina
130.657
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 10
40
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+10); Under


----------------------------------


Monday's game
Dolphins (4-4) @ Panthers (6-3)— Miami has led one game at halftime this year, Week 4 vs the Titans; Dolphins are 2-2 in true road games, with wins by total of 5 points. Three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Carolina is 2-2 at home; their defense has allowed only two TD’s on 31 drives in their last three games. Miami is 4-1 against the Panthers, winning 13-9/24-17 in its two visits here. Carolina won last meeting 20-16 in 2013. AFC East road teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC South home teams are 3-9. Panthers lost six of last eight pre-bye games. Carolina OC Mike Shula is Don Shula’s son. Last three Miami games went over the total; last three Carolina games stayed under.


------------------------------


NFL


Sunday, November 12


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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING PREVIEW AND ODDS: PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS
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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7.5, 44.5)


The Denver Broncos are in a freefall and the prospect of stopping the tailspin doesn't look promising with the defending Super Bowl champions coming to town. The Broncos have dropped four in a row and will try to bounce back from an ugly beat-down when they host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in a prime-time matchup on Sunday night.


Denver was blasted by Philadelphia 51-23 last week in its third straight road game, but the team has enjoyed success at home against the Patriots and Brady. "It is the perfect opponent," Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler said of New England. "I think any time you find yourself in a losing streak like this and not playing good football, you want to play a great opponent because if you can go out there and play a good football game and find a way to get a win, it's going to create a ton of momentum for your football team." The Patriots have ripped off four straight victories to move into a tie with Pittsburgh for the AFC's best record and are coming off a bye, but Brady has won only three of 10 career matchups against Denver in the Mile High City. "There's little margin for error when you go out there," Brady said. "They have a great defense. They have great players on both sides of the ball. You can't go out there and make a bunch of mistakes and expect to win." **video

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-6) - Broncos (4) + home field (-3) = Patriots -5.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 7.5-road chalk against the Broncos and that number has yet to move. The total hit the betting board at 46 and was bet up as high as 47 before money came in on the under dropping that number to 44.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY:
 'The AFC rivals have squared of three times in the past six seasons in the playoffs, as well as 6 times during the course of the regular season the last six years as well, so they know one another practically as well as they do their division foes. The well-rested Pats have struggled in game at Denver, going 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS the last nineteen visits, but the Broncos have quarterback issues and are riding a 0-4 SU and ATS losing skein since their bye week in mid October. Safe to say anything can happen tonight.' Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: 
'The little bit of smart money we’ve seen has come on both sides of this game. The public is all over the Pats as we have almost 80 percent of the tickets on that side, but the money handle favors New England 55-45. We’ve taken some sharp money on the under and dropped that two points off the open.' Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

INJURY REPORT:


Patriots - WR Danny Amendola (Probable, Knee), CB Stephon Gilmore (Probable, Concussion), DE Cassius Marsh (Questionable, Shoulder), DB Eric Rowe (Questionable, Groin), DL Malcom Brown (Questionable, Ankle), OL Marcus Cannon (Questionable, Ankle), WR Chris Hogan (Doubtful, Shoulder), OL Andrew Jelks (Questionable, Knee), OL Tony Garcia (Questionable, Illness), LB Shea McClellin (I-R, Concussion), WR Malcom Mitchell (Questionable, Knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (I-R, Pectoral).


Broncos - WR Demaryius Thomas (Probable, Hamstring), WR Emmanuel Sanders (Probable, Ankle), S Darian Stewart (Probable, Thigh), WR Cody Latimer (Probable, Knee), LB Shane Ray (Probable, Wrist), DE Derek Wolfe (Questionable, Neck), WR Bennie Fowler III (Questionable, Ankle), G Ron Leary (Questionable, Elbow), G Matt Paradis (Questionable, Back), RB C.J. Anderson (Questionable, Ankle), QB Paxton Lynch (Questionable, Shoulder), OT Donald Stephenson (Questionable, Calf), LB Todd Davis (Questionable, Ankle), OT Menelik Watson (I-R, Foot), TE Jake Butt (I-R, Knee), QB Chad Kelly (I-R, Wrist).

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U): New England has not been an offensive juggernaut during its winning streak, averaging just under 22 points per game, but Brady leads the league with 2,541 passing yards while throwing for 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Brady continues to spread the wealth, with five different receivers catching at least five passes in a 21-13 victory over San Diego before the bye, but wideout Chris Hogan is expected to miss the game due to injury. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has five touchdown receptions and is second to running back James White with 34 catches, missed last season's 16-3 victory in Denver. The Patriots owned the league's worst defense through four games but they have yielded an average of 12.8 points over the past four.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Osweiler, set to make his second straight start following the benching of Trevor Siemian, beat the Patriots while with Denver in 2015, passing for 270 yards and a score in a 30-24 overtime victory. Duplicating that feat could be considerably tougher this time around with his three top receivers -- Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Bennie Fowler -- and three of his starting offensive linemen all dealing with assorted injuries. The ground game needs to get untracked after C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker and Jamaal Charles managed 35 yards on 21 carries in Philadelphia. Denver's defense is No. 2 in the league with 280.8 yards allowed, but ranks in the middle of the pack with 19 sacks despite the presence of linebacker Von Miller.

TRENDS:


* Patriots are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.


* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.


* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.


* Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


* Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Covers public is siding with the road fave Patriots at a rate of 69 percent and the Over is getting 56 of the totals action.


-------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 10
November 13, 2017


Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 10 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-2
Against the Spread 7-5-1


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 6-6-1


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Packers (+5, ML +190) at Bears, 23-16
49ers (+3, ML +140) vs. Giants, 31-21

The largest favorite to cover
Rams (-13) vs. Texans, 33-7
Lions (-10) vs. Browns, 38-24
Patriots (-7) at Patriots, 41-16


Marching In


-- The New Orleans Saints rolled up an impressive 47-10 road win against the Buffalo Bills, posting six rushing touchdowns in the process. The Saints started out 0-2 SU/ATS, but they're a perfect 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS during their current seven-game winning streak. Next up is a home date with the Washington Redskins and a high-anticipated battle on the road against the Los Angeles Rams. Not many believed, even a few weeks ago, that a former NFC West battle between the Rams and Saints would have playoff implications.

Break Up the Niners


-- The San Francisco 49ers didn't look like a winless team in their 31-21 victory against the New York Giants, earning the straight-up win and cover as short 'dogs at home. The team traded for QB Jimmy Garoppolo to be their quarterback of the future, but rookie QB C.J. Beathard accounted for three total touchdowns and there is no hurry to thrust Garoppolo in before it is time. The 49ers did enter the game with a total of just 30 points over their past three games, 10 points in each outing. The 'over' has cashed in four of their past six outings thanks mostly to the fact they have given up 20 or more points in six straight games.
Total Recall


-- Sunday Night Football hit the 'over' for the second consecutive week, as the New England Patriots mowed down the Denver Broncos, 41-16. Over bettors were helped by several miscues on special teams which led to plenty of early points, including a muffed punt deep in Denver territory which gave the Patriots favorable field position, and a kickoff return for touchdown midway through the first quarter. The 'over' was a frequent occurrence for the Pats early on, going 4-0 through their first four games, but they tightened up on defense and posted four straight 'under' results until SNF.


-- The game with the lowest total on the board -- Green Bay-Chicago (37.5) ended up inching over thanks to a flurry of scoring in the final quarter. The teams had combined for just 19 points through the first three quarters, and 'under' bettors were on the right side. However, there were 10 total points in the final 5:29 to push the total over the finish line for 'over' bettors. This game was aided by five field goals of 40-plus yards, a 37-yard touchdown run and a 46-yard touchdown reception to go over.


-- The Dallas-Atlanta (49) game offered the highest total on the board, but the 'under' was never in doubt. The Cowboys offense looked disjointed as they adjusted to life without RB Ezekiel Elliott, serving the first of a six-game suspension, and while understudy RB Alfred Morris did a good job, it was the offensive line that did the Cowboys in. OT Tyron Smith was inactive, so DE Adrian Clayborn had a historically good day taking advantage of the patchwork line. He recorded six sacks, second-most in a single game in NFL history, and a new Falcons franchise record. Watch those Dallas 'under' results in future weeks.


-- The 'Over/under' split in the first two primetime games of Week 10, and the 'over' is 19-12 (61.2%) through the first 31 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's Miami Dolphins-Carolina Panthers game still on tap. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Colts QB Jacoby Brissett (concussion) reported concussion-like symptoms after Sunday's game, the result of a helmet-to-helmet hit that wasn't even flagged. He'll have two weeks to recover with the team on a bye in Week 11.


-- Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (concussion) was forced out of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, entering the NFL's concussion protocol.


-- Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) suffered a medial collateral ligament sprain in Sunday's game, and he'll have an MRI on Monday to determine how much time he will miss. RB Ty Montgomery (ribs) also checked out early and did not return.


-- Texans WR Will Fuller (ribs) sustained an injury to his ribs in the first half and he was unable to return to the game.


Looking Ahead


-- For the second consecutive weekend the NFL schedule features just two divisional matchups.


-- Lions and Bears will do battle in Chicago on Sunday. Detroit has had their way with seven straight-up wins over the past eight meetings, and the Lions are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings overall including 2-0 ATS at Soldier Field. The 'under' has connected in three straght in this series, too.


-- The Eagles and Cowboys will hook up in an important NFC East battle on Sunday Night Football. The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven SNF games, and the 'over' is 2-0 in the past two. The Eagles opened as three-point favorites and the total is up to 48 as of early Monday morning. In this series, the Cowboys have won just once in the past four home games against the Eagles, and they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home against Philadelphia. Over the past two seasons both games at AT&T Stadium in Arlington have been decided in overtime.