NFL opening line report: Patriots QB situation continues to be muddled for one more week
Jacoby Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Jimmy Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder.
There’s only one more game left in Tom Brady’s suspension, and his team is unbeaten heading into Week 4 of the NFL season. We talk about the opening lines on four key games this week with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (no line)
New England trotted out third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett for last Thursday’s game against Houston. It didn’t matter, as the Patriots rolled over the visiting Texans 27-0 in a pick ‘em game.
Meanwhile, Buffalo (1-2 SU and ATS) got one of the more stunning Week 3 wins, dumping Arizona 33-18 as a 5-point home underdog Sunday.
Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder. So Sportsbook.ag is holding off on setting the line until Bill Belichick clarifies that situation – like it’ll matter for the 3-0 SU and ATS Pats.
“With the Pats dealing with so many issues at the quarterback position, we’re not going to open until we know more about who’s going to get the start for them,” Childs said. “Both Garoppolo and Brissett are listed as questionable, and I honestly don’t think either will be able to go. We’ll see, but as of now, this game is closed.”
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)
Pittsburgh (2-1 SU and ATS) was on the very short end of the most shocking Week 3 decision, getting railroaded 34-3 at Philadelphia as a 3.5-point chalk. Kansas City (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) drubbed the New York Jets 24-3 laying 3 points at home. But Childs has big expectations of the Steelers.
“With the Steelers at home off an embarrassing loss, we expect a very solid effort from them in this spot,” Childs said. “Throw in the fact that this is the Sunday night featured game, and we believe the public is going to be all over the Steelers in this one. That said, Pittsburgh definitely has some issues on defense, and the Chiefs were very impressive dominating a good Jets team.”
Sportsbook.ag oddmakers needed some time to settle on the number.
“We thought about opening Steelers -6, but felt that was too many points, so we opened them -5, which is a dead number. We’ll see how the market reacts to our opener,” Childs said. “We can easily get to 6 if we get flooded with Steelers money, and if sharp money backs the Chiefs and takes the points, then we’ll quickly get down to 4.5 or 4.
“Again, 5 being a dead number, we’ve got a lot of wiggle room to maneuver, with little chance of getting sided or middled.”
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)
Cam Newton and Co. suffered a stunning Week 2 loss, as well, with the reigning NFC champion Panthers (1-2 SU and ATS) falling 22-10 as 6-point home faves against Minnesota. Atlanta (1-1 SU and ATS) still has to get in its Week 3 work, playing at New Orleans in the Monday nighter.
“This is a tough number to hang, because we really don’t know how good the Falcons are. So much will depend on their game Monday night,” Childs said. “The Panthers have been such a public team for the past year, and we feel they’ll get the money here off a loss. I have the game power-rated Panthers -3, but knowing the public will be on them, we added the hook with an opener of Panthers -3½ and will charge a premium on the early Panthers money.”
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
In Sam Bradford, Minnesota has found a more than capable replacement for injured Teddy Bridgewater, and the Vikes’ defense is getting it done, too, en route to a 3-0 SU and ATS start. On Sunday, the Vikings upended defending NFC champion Carolina 22-10 as a 6-point road underdog.
New York (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) gave up a late field goal, followed by an interception in losing to Washington 29-27 giving 3.5 points at home.
“This was so close to this game being a matchup of undefeated teams, but the Giants couldn’t close out the Redskins on Sunday,” Childs said. “The Vikings have been flat-out dominant on defense this season. The Giants are much improved on defense, but they yielded a season-high 29 points on Sunday, so they still have plenty of work to do on that side of the ball.
“It’s a Monday night game, and US Bank Stadium is going to be nuts. Normally, home field in the NFL is worth close to 3 points; for the Vikings and this new stadium, we make their home edge 3.5 points. We have the Vikings power-rated a 1-point favorite, so tack on the 3.5 points for their home field, and we opened Vikings -4.5.”
Jacoby Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Jimmy Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder.
There’s only one more game left in Tom Brady’s suspension, and his team is unbeaten heading into Week 4 of the NFL season. We talk about the opening lines on four key games this week with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (no line)
New England trotted out third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett for last Thursday’s game against Houston. It didn’t matter, as the Patriots rolled over the visiting Texans 27-0 in a pick ‘em game.
Meanwhile, Buffalo (1-2 SU and ATS) got one of the more stunning Week 3 wins, dumping Arizona 33-18 as a 5-point home underdog Sunday.
Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder. So Sportsbook.ag is holding off on setting the line until Bill Belichick clarifies that situation – like it’ll matter for the 3-0 SU and ATS Pats.
“With the Pats dealing with so many issues at the quarterback position, we’re not going to open until we know more about who’s going to get the start for them,” Childs said. “Both Garoppolo and Brissett are listed as questionable, and I honestly don’t think either will be able to go. We’ll see, but as of now, this game is closed.”
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)
Pittsburgh (2-1 SU and ATS) was on the very short end of the most shocking Week 3 decision, getting railroaded 34-3 at Philadelphia as a 3.5-point chalk. Kansas City (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) drubbed the New York Jets 24-3 laying 3 points at home. But Childs has big expectations of the Steelers.
“With the Steelers at home off an embarrassing loss, we expect a very solid effort from them in this spot,” Childs said. “Throw in the fact that this is the Sunday night featured game, and we believe the public is going to be all over the Steelers in this one. That said, Pittsburgh definitely has some issues on defense, and the Chiefs were very impressive dominating a good Jets team.”
Sportsbook.ag oddmakers needed some time to settle on the number.
“We thought about opening Steelers -6, but felt that was too many points, so we opened them -5, which is a dead number. We’ll see how the market reacts to our opener,” Childs said. “We can easily get to 6 if we get flooded with Steelers money, and if sharp money backs the Chiefs and takes the points, then we’ll quickly get down to 4.5 or 4.
“Again, 5 being a dead number, we’ve got a lot of wiggle room to maneuver, with little chance of getting sided or middled.”
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)
Cam Newton and Co. suffered a stunning Week 2 loss, as well, with the reigning NFC champion Panthers (1-2 SU and ATS) falling 22-10 as 6-point home faves against Minnesota. Atlanta (1-1 SU and ATS) still has to get in its Week 3 work, playing at New Orleans in the Monday nighter.
“This is a tough number to hang, because we really don’t know how good the Falcons are. So much will depend on their game Monday night,” Childs said. “The Panthers have been such a public team for the past year, and we feel they’ll get the money here off a loss. I have the game power-rated Panthers -3, but knowing the public will be on them, we added the hook with an opener of Panthers -3½ and will charge a premium on the early Panthers money.”
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
In Sam Bradford, Minnesota has found a more than capable replacement for injured Teddy Bridgewater, and the Vikes’ defense is getting it done, too, en route to a 3-0 SU and ATS start. On Sunday, the Vikings upended defending NFC champion Carolina 22-10 as a 6-point road underdog.
New York (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) gave up a late field goal, followed by an interception in losing to Washington 29-27 giving 3.5 points at home.
“This was so close to this game being a matchup of undefeated teams, but the Giants couldn’t close out the Redskins on Sunday,” Childs said. “The Vikings have been flat-out dominant on defense this season. The Giants are much improved on defense, but they yielded a season-high 29 points on Sunday, so they still have plenty of work to do on that side of the ball.
“It’s a Monday night game, and US Bank Stadium is going to be nuts. Normally, home field in the NFL is worth close to 3 points; for the Vikings and this new stadium, we make their home edge 3.5 points. We have the Vikings power-rated a 1-point favorite, so tack on the 3.5 points for their home field, and we opened Vikings -4.5.”
Wiseguys are keeping a close eye on these redemption storylines in NFL Week 4
After two easy wins and covers, the Steelers had the look and feel of a team that was more than ready to give the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC. Now, who knows?
Spread to bet now
Tennessee at Houston (-6.5)
Bill O’Brien and the Texans looked like a shaken bunch when they boarded the bus after last Thursday’s 27-0 shutout loss in New England, but they will have had a few extra days to sort things out. Houston was not as bad as it looked in Foxboro, but no one knows if the Texans are as good as they showed in home wins over Chicago and Kansas City. At any rate, Houston gets another home game and is looking down at the rest of the AFC South, so things can’t be all that bad. The Titans have to figure out a way to jump-start an offense which has scored only 42 points in three games, and do it against a Houston team whose defense was embarrassed by the Patriots’ third-string QB on national TV. If the money stays heavy money on the Texans, it could bump the line up to 7.
Spread to wait on
Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-6)
Philadelphia 34, Pittsburgh 3. What was THAT all about? After two easy wins and covers, the Steelers had the look and feel of a team that was more than ready to give the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC. Now, who knows? The Steelers were outplayed in every phase of the game (except punting) vs. their in-state rivals, and now face a pretty good Chiefs team that is coming off a dismantling of the Jets. If you’re torn between taking or laying the points in this one, bear in mind that the Chiefs offense revolves around RB Jamaal Charles, and as of early this week KC was still uncertain if Charles is completely recovered from ACL surgery from last October. Might want to wait until there is more definitive word.
Total to watch
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (49.5)
Loading up on skill-position players in the draft has taken its toll on the Colts, who aspire to the Super Bowl but are actually under .500 in their last 19 regular-season games. Indy ranks 24th in the league in defense this season, and is giving up an average of 32 points a game. On the plus side, the D appears to be getting a little better (22 allowed vs. San Diego last week), though that might be a product of playing mediocre offensive teams. Jacksonville has offensive problems, namely an inability to run the ball, but is confident that it can move the ball through the air against Indy’s mediocre back 7. Both teams are 2-1 on the over.
After two easy wins and covers, the Steelers had the look and feel of a team that was more than ready to give the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC. Now, who knows?
Spread to bet now
Tennessee at Houston (-6.5)
Bill O’Brien and the Texans looked like a shaken bunch when they boarded the bus after last Thursday’s 27-0 shutout loss in New England, but they will have had a few extra days to sort things out. Houston was not as bad as it looked in Foxboro, but no one knows if the Texans are as good as they showed in home wins over Chicago and Kansas City. At any rate, Houston gets another home game and is looking down at the rest of the AFC South, so things can’t be all that bad. The Titans have to figure out a way to jump-start an offense which has scored only 42 points in three games, and do it against a Houston team whose defense was embarrassed by the Patriots’ third-string QB on national TV. If the money stays heavy money on the Texans, it could bump the line up to 7.
Spread to wait on
Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-6)
Philadelphia 34, Pittsburgh 3. What was THAT all about? After two easy wins and covers, the Steelers had the look and feel of a team that was more than ready to give the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC. Now, who knows? The Steelers were outplayed in every phase of the game (except punting) vs. their in-state rivals, and now face a pretty good Chiefs team that is coming off a dismantling of the Jets. If you’re torn between taking or laying the points in this one, bear in mind that the Chiefs offense revolves around RB Jamaal Charles, and as of early this week KC was still uncertain if Charles is completely recovered from ACL surgery from last October. Might want to wait until there is more definitive word.
Total to watch
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (49.5)
Loading up on skill-position players in the draft has taken its toll on the Colts, who aspire to the Super Bowl but are actually under .500 in their last 19 regular-season games. Indy ranks 24th in the league in defense this season, and is giving up an average of 32 points a game. On the plus side, the D appears to be getting a little better (22 allowed vs. San Diego last week), though that might be a product of playing mediocre offensive teams. Jacksonville has offensive problems, namely an inability to run the ball, but is confident that it can move the ball through the air against Indy’s mediocre back 7. Both teams are 2-1 on the over.
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 4
Thursday, September 29
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MIAMI (1 - 2) at CINCINNATI (1 - 2) - 9/29/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-76 ATS (-32.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Sunday, October 2
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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) vs. JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) - 10/2/2016, 9:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CLEVELAND (0 - 3) at WASHINGTON (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-89 ATS (-43.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 20-44 ATS (-28.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BUFFALO (1 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SEATTLE (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 1) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DETROIT (1 - 2) at CHICAGO (0 - 3) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OAKLAND (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (3 - 0) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DENVER (3 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DALLAS (2 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Long Sheet
Week 4
Thursday, September 29
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MIAMI (1 - 2) at CINCINNATI (1 - 2) - 9/29/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-76 ATS (-32.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Sunday, October 2
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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) vs. JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) - 10/2/2016, 9:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CLEVELAND (0 - 3) at WASHINGTON (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-89 ATS (-43.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 20-44 ATS (-28.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BUFFALO (1 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SEATTLE (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 1) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DETROIT (1 - 2) at CHICAGO (0 - 3) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OAKLAND (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (3 - 0) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DENVER (3 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DALLAS (2 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NFL
Short Sheet
Week 4
Thurs – Sept. 26
Miami at Cincinnati, 8:25 PM ET
Miami: 1-8 ATS in games played on turf
Cincinnati: 17-6 ATS in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game
Sun – Oct. 2
Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 9:30 AM ET
Indianapolis: 18-5 OVER in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Jacksonville: 66-91 ATS after playing a game at home
Cleveland at Washington, 1:10 PM ET
Cleveland: 9-1 OVER in the first month of the season
Washington: 7-19 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14
Buffalo at New England, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 1-6 ATS off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog
New England: 27-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game
Seattle at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Seattle: 36-19 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
New York: 37-62 ATS off a road loss
Carolina at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET
Carolina: 13-4 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS vs. mistake prone teams – 60+ penalty yards per game
Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Detroit: 8-24 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Chicago: 19-8 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 1-11 ATS against conference opponents
Houston: 12-3 ATS as a favorite
Oakland at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Oakland: 5-16 ATS in road games against AFC North division opponents
Baltimore: 29-14 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Denver at Tampa Bay, 4:05 PM ET
Denver: 18-36 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
Tampa Bay: 18-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored
Dallas at San Francisco, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 10-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 6-17 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games
New Orleans at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
New Orleans: 17-5 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
San Diego: 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Los Angeles at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
Los Angeles: 75-105 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Arizona: 31-14 ATS in home games off a non-conference game
Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 8:30 PM ET
Kansas City: 21-38 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Pittsburgh: 48-28 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7
Mon – Oct. 3
NY Giants at Minnesota, 8:30 PM ET
New York: 73-41 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Minnesota: 11-2 ATS in games played on turf
Short Sheet
Week 4
Thurs – Sept. 26
Miami at Cincinnati, 8:25 PM ET
Miami: 1-8 ATS in games played on turf
Cincinnati: 17-6 ATS in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game
Sun – Oct. 2
Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 9:30 AM ET
Indianapolis: 18-5 OVER in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Jacksonville: 66-91 ATS after playing a game at home
Cleveland at Washington, 1:10 PM ET
Cleveland: 9-1 OVER in the first month of the season
Washington: 7-19 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14
Buffalo at New England, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 1-6 ATS off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog
New England: 27-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game
Seattle at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Seattle: 36-19 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
New York: 37-62 ATS off a road loss
Carolina at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET
Carolina: 13-4 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS vs. mistake prone teams – 60+ penalty yards per game
Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Detroit: 8-24 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Chicago: 19-8 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 1-11 ATS against conference opponents
Houston: 12-3 ATS as a favorite
Oakland at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Oakland: 5-16 ATS in road games against AFC North division opponents
Baltimore: 29-14 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Denver at Tampa Bay, 4:05 PM ET
Denver: 18-36 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
Tampa Bay: 18-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored
Dallas at San Francisco, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 10-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 6-17 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games
New Orleans at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
New Orleans: 17-5 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
San Diego: 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Los Angeles at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
Los Angeles: 75-105 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Arizona: 31-14 ATS in home games off a non-conference game
Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 8:30 PM ET
Kansas City: 21-38 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Pittsburgh: 48-28 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7
Mon – Oct. 3
NY Giants at Minnesota, 8:30 PM ET
New York: 73-41 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Minnesota: 11-2 ATS in games played on turf
NFL
Week 4
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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 29
8:25 PM
MIAMI vs. CINCINNATI
Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Sunday, October 2
9:30 AM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Oakland
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. WASHINGTON
Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
NY Jets are 2-2-2 ATS in their last 6 games
NY Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games
1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
Detroit is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home
1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Carolina
4:05 PM
DENVER vs. TAMPA BAY
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Dallas is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Dallas
4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN DIEGO
New Orleans is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games ,
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
4:25 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 12 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Los Angeles is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Arizona is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Monday, October 3
8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. MINNESOTA
NY Giants are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Minnesota
NY Giants are 2-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Week 4
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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 29
8:25 PM
MIAMI vs. CINCINNATI
Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Sunday, October 2
9:30 AM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Oakland
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. WASHINGTON
Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
NY Jets are 2-2-2 ATS in their last 6 games
NY Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games
1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
Detroit is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home
1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Carolina
4:05 PM
DENVER vs. TAMPA BAY
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Dallas is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Dallas
4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN DIEGO
New Orleans is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games ,
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
4:25 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 12 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Los Angeles is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Arizona is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Monday, October 3
8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. MINNESOTA
NY Giants are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Minnesota
NY Giants are 2-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Week 4 NFL
Dolphins (1-2) @ Bengals (1-2)– Cincinnati lost its last two games; they’ve trailed all three games at halftime- they’re just 12-39 on 3rd down. Bengals are 12-7-2 in last 21 games as home favorite, 0-1 this year. Miami is 12-2 in last 14 series games, winning last three by 8-4-2 points. Dolphins won seven of last eight visits to Cincy; last one was in ’12. Miami is 12-14 in last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’ve turned ball over 7 times in last two games (-5), allowed 130 rushing yards. Cleveland missed FG on last play of regulation LW or Miami would be 0-3. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-2 as underdogs. AFC North teams are 4-4.
Colts (1-2) vs Jaguars (0-3) (in London)– Jacksonville lost its two home games by total of 6 points, amid rumors that Bradley could be fired with loss here, as bye week looms. Indy had one offensive TD in 25 drives vs Jaguars LY; they gave up 296 rushing yards to Jax in those two games. Colts won six of last seven games vs Jaguars, but lost last one 51-16 here LY- Indy is 10-5 in visits here. Colts hit long pass with 1:17 left to beat Chargers and get its first win LW; Indy 4-9-1 in its last 14 games as a favorite, 16-12-1 in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jaguars play game here every year; 5-11 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.
Browns (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)– Former Redskin QB RGIII returns to Maryland, with his arm in a sling. Browns started three different QBs in first three games, losing in OT after its rookie kicker missed FG at gun of regulation. Cleveland is 9-7-1 in last 17 games as a road underdog- they led last two weeks at half, ran ball for 145-169 yards, but couldn’t finish. Washington is 2-8 in its last ten games as a home favorite; they’ve already lost at home to Steelers/Dallas this year. Last two Redskin games were decided by total of 6 points- they won two of three series games, beating Browns 14-11 in ’08, in only meeting played here. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs spreas in non-divisional games; AFC North teams are 4-4.
Bills (1-2) @ Patriots (3-0)– Garoppolo/Brissett are both banged up, unsure who starts at QB in last game before Brady returns. Patriots are 23-2 in last 25 series games, winning 40-32/20-13 in two games vs Buffalo LY. Bills lost 14 of last 15 visits here, winning in ’14. Buffalo ran ball for 208 yards LW, in first game with new OC, after running for total of 151 in first two games, but they threw for only 88 yards- they’ll need lot more balance here. Buffalo is 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a divisional road dog, 7-5-1 in last 13 overall as a road dog. Patriots are 5-1-3 in last nine games as a home favorite- they’ve historically been stronger HF vs non-division foes. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games this season.
Seahawks (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)– Wilson has sprained knee, Seattle has bye week next; backup is TCU rookie Boykin (7-9/65 in mop-up duty LW). Seahawks are 5-6 in last 11 games as road favorite- they’re 6-3-2 in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jets turned ball over eight times LW in epic display of bad offense- they’re 8-2 vs spread in last 10 tries as home underdog, 6-10-1 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last five series games; Seattle lost its last five games vs Jets in Swamp, but last visit was in 2003- they last beat Jets here in ’83. Jets lost 13-3/28-7 in last two visits to Seattle. NFC West teams are 1-4 vs spread in non-division games. AFC East teams are 5-3, 0-1 if favored.
Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (2-1)– Atlanta scored nine TDs on 18 drives in winning last two games; average total in their first three games is 65 (over 3-0) . Falcons defense also allowed 12 TDs already, all on drives of 75+ yards- they’re not good. Panthers turned ball over 7 times (-4) in last two games; they’re 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorites, 10-5 in last 15 with a spread of 3 or less. Atlanta is 7-2 in last nine games as a home dog, 5-2 under Quinn in games with spread of 3 or less. Carolina defense has forced 17 3/outs, most in league- they won five of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, after losing previous five . NFL-wide, home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.
Lions (1-2) @ Bears (0-3)– Chicago is 8-23-3 vs spread in last 34 games with spread of 3 or less points- they were outscored 83-45 in losing first three games, losing to rookie QBs last two weeks; they’ve lost 11 of last 12 home games, are 2-10 as home dogs in last 4+ years. Check Cutler’s status (thumb). Lions allowed 69 points in splitting pair of road games- they have only two TDs in last six visits to red zone. Detroit won last six series games, with five of six wins by 8 or less points (37-34/24-20 LY); Lions won last three visits here, by 2-6-4 points. Detroit is 5-8 as road favorite last 4+ years, 12-15-2 in last 27 games with spread of 3 or less. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.
Titans (1-2) @ Texans (2-1)– Houston scored one TD in last two games; all three TDs NE scored against them LW came on drives of less than 50 yards. Titans were outscored 29-6 in first half of last two games; they’ve lost field position by 9-9-6 yards in first three games. Houston is 8-3 as home favorite under O’Brien (1-0 this year). Tennessee is 6-13 in last 19 games as road dog- they won only road game this year, 16-15 at Detroit. Texans are 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last four, all by 14+ points; Titans lost last four visits here, by 24-6-24-14 points. Tennessee scored one TD on 25 drives vs Texans LY, losing 20-6/34-6. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games. There are rumors that JJ Watt is hurt (back, check status) which would obviously hurt the Houston defense.
Week 4 NFL
Dolphins @ Bengals (-7, 44.5)……….Colts (-2.5, 49.5) @ Jaguars
Browns @ Redskins (-9.5, 45.5)……..Bills @ Patriots (-4.5, NL)
Seahawks (-1.5, 40.5) @ Jets…………..Panthers (-3.5, NL) @ Falcons
Lions (-3, 46.5) @ Bears…………………Titans @ Texans (-6, 40.5)
Raiders @ Ravens (-3.5, 47)……………Broncos (-3, 44.5) @ Buccaneers
Cowboys (-3, 46) @ 49ers………………Saints @ Chargers (-4, NL)
Rams @ Cardinals (-8.5, 43)…………..Chiefs @ Steelers (-6, 47.5)
Giants @ Vikings (-4, 43)
Week 3 NFL
Texans (-2.5, 41) @ Patriots (W27-0)………….Broncos (W29-17) @ Bengals (-3, 41)
Raiders (W17-10) @ Titans (-1., 46.5)………….Cardinals (-4.5, 47) @ Bills (W33-18)
Ravens (-1, 47.5) (W19-17) @ Jaguars…………..Browns @ Dolphins (-9.5, 41.5) (W30-24 OT)
Redskins (W29-27) @ Giants (-4.5, 46.5)………Lions @ Packers (-7.5, 48) (W34-27)
Vikings (W22-10) @ Panthers (-7, 48)…………..49ers @ Seahawks (-10, 40.5) (w37-18)
Rams (W37-32) @ Buccaneers (-5, 42)………….Steelers (-5.5, 46) @ Eagles (W34-3)
Jets @ Chiefs (-3, 43) (W24-3)……………………..Chargers @ Colts (-3, 51) (W26-22)
Bears @ Cowboys (-7, 45) (W31-17)………………Falcons (W45-32) @ Saints (-3, 54)
Week 2 NFL
Jets (W37-31) @ Bills (-1, 41)……………Titans (W16-15) @ Lions (-5.5, 47)
Chiefs @ Texans (W19-12) (-2, 43.5)………….Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5, 41.5) (W31-24)
Ravens (-6.5, 43) (W25-20) @ Browns…………Bengals @ Steelers (-3.5, 47.5) (W24-16)
Cowboys (W27-23) @ Redskins (-3.5, 44.5)…………Saints @ Giants (-5, 52.5) (W16-13)
49ers @ Panthers (-14, 48.5) (W46-27)…………Bucs @ Cardinals (-6.5, 50) (W40-7)
Seahawks (-6.5) @ Rams (W9-3)…………Colts @ Broncos (-6, 45) (W34-20)
Falcons (W35-28) @ Raiders (-5.5, 48.5)…………Jaguars @ Chargers (-3, 48) (W38-14)
Packers (-2.5), 44.5 @ Vikings (W17-14)………..Eagles @ Bears (-3, 43)
Week 1 NFL
Carolina (-3, 40.5) @ Denver (W21-20)……………Chicago @ Houston (-6, 44) (W23-14)
Tampa Bay (W31-24)@ Atlanta (-3, 47.5)……..Green Bay (-5, 48) (W27-23) @ Jacksonville
Minnesota (-2.5, 40.5) (W25-16) @ Tennessee ………..Miami @ Seattle (-10, 44) (W12-10)
Cleveland @ Philadelphia (-4, 41) (29-10)……….NJ Giants (W20-19) @ Dallas (-1, 46)
Cincinnati (-2.5, 42) (W23-22) @ NJ Jets………..Detroit (W39-35) @ Indianapolis (-3.5, 51)
Oakland (W35-34) @ New Orleans (-1.5, 51)….New England (W23-21) @ Arizona (-6, 46.5)
San Diego @ Kansas City (W33-27 OT) (-7, 44)………….Pittsburgh (-3, 50) @ Washington
Buffalo @ Baltimore (-3, 44.5) (W13-7)……………….Los Angeles (-2.5, 43) @ San Francisco
2016 week-by-week results
Home Favorites Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 7-9 5-11 7-9 5-3N
2) 10-6 7-9 7-8-1 1-1
3) 7-9 5-11 9-7 1-1
Tot 24-24 17-31 23-24-1 7-5N
Dolphins (1-2) @ Bengals (1-2)– Cincinnati lost its last two games; they’ve trailed all three games at halftime- they’re just 12-39 on 3rd down. Bengals are 12-7-2 in last 21 games as home favorite, 0-1 this year. Miami is 12-2 in last 14 series games, winning last three by 8-4-2 points. Dolphins won seven of last eight visits to Cincy; last one was in ’12. Miami is 12-14 in last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’ve turned ball over 7 times in last two games (-5), allowed 130 rushing yards. Cleveland missed FG on last play of regulation LW or Miami would be 0-3. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-2 as underdogs. AFC North teams are 4-4.
Colts (1-2) vs Jaguars (0-3) (in London)– Jacksonville lost its two home games by total of 6 points, amid rumors that Bradley could be fired with loss here, as bye week looms. Indy had one offensive TD in 25 drives vs Jaguars LY; they gave up 296 rushing yards to Jax in those two games. Colts won six of last seven games vs Jaguars, but lost last one 51-16 here LY- Indy is 10-5 in visits here. Colts hit long pass with 1:17 left to beat Chargers and get its first win LW; Indy 4-9-1 in its last 14 games as a favorite, 16-12-1 in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jaguars play game here every year; 5-11 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.
Browns (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)– Former Redskin QB RGIII returns to Maryland, with his arm in a sling. Browns started three different QBs in first three games, losing in OT after its rookie kicker missed FG at gun of regulation. Cleveland is 9-7-1 in last 17 games as a road underdog- they led last two weeks at half, ran ball for 145-169 yards, but couldn’t finish. Washington is 2-8 in its last ten games as a home favorite; they’ve already lost at home to Steelers/Dallas this year. Last two Redskin games were decided by total of 6 points- they won two of three series games, beating Browns 14-11 in ’08, in only meeting played here. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs spreas in non-divisional games; AFC North teams are 4-4.
Bills (1-2) @ Patriots (3-0)– Garoppolo/Brissett are both banged up, unsure who starts at QB in last game before Brady returns. Patriots are 23-2 in last 25 series games, winning 40-32/20-13 in two games vs Buffalo LY. Bills lost 14 of last 15 visits here, winning in ’14. Buffalo ran ball for 208 yards LW, in first game with new OC, after running for total of 151 in first two games, but they threw for only 88 yards- they’ll need lot more balance here. Buffalo is 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a divisional road dog, 7-5-1 in last 13 overall as a road dog. Patriots are 5-1-3 in last nine games as a home favorite- they’ve historically been stronger HF vs non-division foes. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games this season.
Seahawks (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)– Wilson has sprained knee, Seattle has bye week next; backup is TCU rookie Boykin (7-9/65 in mop-up duty LW). Seahawks are 5-6 in last 11 games as road favorite- they’re 6-3-2 in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jets turned ball over eight times LW in epic display of bad offense- they’re 8-2 vs spread in last 10 tries as home underdog, 6-10-1 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last five series games; Seattle lost its last five games vs Jets in Swamp, but last visit was in 2003- they last beat Jets here in ’83. Jets lost 13-3/28-7 in last two visits to Seattle. NFC West teams are 1-4 vs spread in non-division games. AFC East teams are 5-3, 0-1 if favored.
Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (2-1)– Atlanta scored nine TDs on 18 drives in winning last two games; average total in their first three games is 65 (over 3-0) . Falcons defense also allowed 12 TDs already, all on drives of 75+ yards- they’re not good. Panthers turned ball over 7 times (-4) in last two games; they’re 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorites, 10-5 in last 15 with a spread of 3 or less. Atlanta is 7-2 in last nine games as a home dog, 5-2 under Quinn in games with spread of 3 or less. Carolina defense has forced 17 3/outs, most in league- they won five of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, after losing previous five . NFL-wide, home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.
Lions (1-2) @ Bears (0-3)– Chicago is 8-23-3 vs spread in last 34 games with spread of 3 or less points- they were outscored 83-45 in losing first three games, losing to rookie QBs last two weeks; they’ve lost 11 of last 12 home games, are 2-10 as home dogs in last 4+ years. Check Cutler’s status (thumb). Lions allowed 69 points in splitting pair of road games- they have only two TDs in last six visits to red zone. Detroit won last six series games, with five of six wins by 8 or less points (37-34/24-20 LY); Lions won last three visits here, by 2-6-4 points. Detroit is 5-8 as road favorite last 4+ years, 12-15-2 in last 27 games with spread of 3 or less. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.
Titans (1-2) @ Texans (2-1)– Houston scored one TD in last two games; all three TDs NE scored against them LW came on drives of less than 50 yards. Titans were outscored 29-6 in first half of last two games; they’ve lost field position by 9-9-6 yards in first three games. Houston is 8-3 as home favorite under O’Brien (1-0 this year). Tennessee is 6-13 in last 19 games as road dog- they won only road game this year, 16-15 at Detroit. Texans are 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last four, all by 14+ points; Titans lost last four visits here, by 24-6-24-14 points. Tennessee scored one TD on 25 drives vs Texans LY, losing 20-6/34-6. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games. There are rumors that JJ Watt is hurt (back, check status) which would obviously hurt the Houston defense.
Week 4 NFL
Dolphins @ Bengals (-7, 44.5)……….Colts (-2.5, 49.5) @ Jaguars
Browns @ Redskins (-9.5, 45.5)……..Bills @ Patriots (-4.5, NL)
Seahawks (-1.5, 40.5) @ Jets…………..Panthers (-3.5, NL) @ Falcons
Lions (-3, 46.5) @ Bears…………………Titans @ Texans (-6, 40.5)
Raiders @ Ravens (-3.5, 47)……………Broncos (-3, 44.5) @ Buccaneers
Cowboys (-3, 46) @ 49ers………………Saints @ Chargers (-4, NL)
Rams @ Cardinals (-8.5, 43)…………..Chiefs @ Steelers (-6, 47.5)
Giants @ Vikings (-4, 43)
Week 3 NFL
Texans (-2.5, 41) @ Patriots (W27-0)………….Broncos (W29-17) @ Bengals (-3, 41)
Raiders (W17-10) @ Titans (-1., 46.5)………….Cardinals (-4.5, 47) @ Bills (W33-18)
Ravens (-1, 47.5) (W19-17) @ Jaguars…………..Browns @ Dolphins (-9.5, 41.5) (W30-24 OT)
Redskins (W29-27) @ Giants (-4.5, 46.5)………Lions @ Packers (-7.5, 48) (W34-27)
Vikings (W22-10) @ Panthers (-7, 48)…………..49ers @ Seahawks (-10, 40.5) (w37-18)
Rams (W37-32) @ Buccaneers (-5, 42)………….Steelers (-5.5, 46) @ Eagles (W34-3)
Jets @ Chiefs (-3, 43) (W24-3)……………………..Chargers @ Colts (-3, 51) (W26-22)
Bears @ Cowboys (-7, 45) (W31-17)………………Falcons (W45-32) @ Saints (-3, 54)
Week 2 NFL
Jets (W37-31) @ Bills (-1, 41)……………Titans (W16-15) @ Lions (-5.5, 47)
Chiefs @ Texans (W19-12) (-2, 43.5)………….Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5, 41.5) (W31-24)
Ravens (-6.5, 43) (W25-20) @ Browns…………Bengals @ Steelers (-3.5, 47.5) (W24-16)
Cowboys (W27-23) @ Redskins (-3.5, 44.5)…………Saints @ Giants (-5, 52.5) (W16-13)
49ers @ Panthers (-14, 48.5) (W46-27)…………Bucs @ Cardinals (-6.5, 50) (W40-7)
Seahawks (-6.5) @ Rams (W9-3)…………Colts @ Broncos (-6, 45) (W34-20)
Falcons (W35-28) @ Raiders (-5.5, 48.5)…………Jaguars @ Chargers (-3, 48) (W38-14)
Packers (-2.5), 44.5 @ Vikings (W17-14)………..Eagles @ Bears (-3, 43)
Week 1 NFL
Carolina (-3, 40.5) @ Denver (W21-20)……………Chicago @ Houston (-6, 44) (W23-14)
Tampa Bay (W31-24)@ Atlanta (-3, 47.5)……..Green Bay (-5, 48) (W27-23) @ Jacksonville
Minnesota (-2.5, 40.5) (W25-16) @ Tennessee ………..Miami @ Seattle (-10, 44) (W12-10)
Cleveland @ Philadelphia (-4, 41) (29-10)……….NJ Giants (W20-19) @ Dallas (-1, 46)
Cincinnati (-2.5, 42) (W23-22) @ NJ Jets………..Detroit (W39-35) @ Indianapolis (-3.5, 51)
Oakland (W35-34) @ New Orleans (-1.5, 51)….New England (W23-21) @ Arizona (-6, 46.5)
San Diego @ Kansas City (W33-27 OT) (-7, 44)………….Pittsburgh (-3, 50) @ Washington
Buffalo @ Baltimore (-3, 44.5) (W13-7)……………….Los Angeles (-2.5, 43) @ San Francisco
2016 week-by-week results
Home Favorites Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 7-9 5-11 7-9 5-3N
2) 10-6 7-9 7-8-1 1-1
3) 7-9 5-11 9-7 1-1
Tot 24-24 17-31 23-24-1 7-5N
NFL ACTION TRENDS
ATS
8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all games.
The record is 17 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.7 units)
BET NOW!
8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all lined games.
The record is 17 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.7 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(261) DETROIT @(262) CHICAGO
Play AGAINST CHICAGO against the spread in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(265) OAKLAND @(266) BALTIMORE
Play ON OAKLAND against the spread in Road games against conference opponents.
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.1 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 3 Wins and 20 Losses for the last three seasons (-19 units)
BET NOW!
----------------------------------
NFL ACTION TRENDS
Money Line
8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play ON NY GIANTS using the money line in Road games against NFC North division opponents.
The record is 16 Wins and 9 Losses since 1992 (+20.75 units)
BET NOW!
8:30 pm 10/2/2016
(275) KANSAS CITY @(276) PITTSBURGH
Play ON PITTSBURGH using the money line in Home games in October games.
The record is 36 Wins and 8 Losses since 1992 (+24.85 units)
BET NOW!
4:05 pm 10/2/2016
(267) DENVER @(268) TAMPA BAY
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using the money line in All games in home games.
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-15.65 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using the money line in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 4 Wins and 23 Losses for the last three seasons (-19.65 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using the money line in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 3 Wins and 22 Losses for the last three seasons (-19.45 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(253) CLEVELAND @(254) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 2 Wins and 12 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.9 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(253) CLEVELAND @(254) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using the money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 31 Wins and 33 Losses since 1992 (-46.55 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(257) SEATTLE @(258) NY JETS
Play ON SEATTLE using the money line in All games off a division game.
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.9 units)
BET NOW!
8:25 pm 9/29/2016
(101) MIAMI @(102) CINCINNATI
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using the money line in Home games against AFC East division opponents.
The record is 8 Wins and 17 Losses since 1992 (-20.1 units)
BET NOW!
8:25 pm 9/29/2016
(101) MIAMI @(102) CINCINNATI
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using the money line in All games against AFC East division opponents.
The record is 14 Wins and 35 Losses since 1992 (-31.75 units)
BET NOW!
ATS
8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all games.
The record is 17 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.7 units)
BET NOW!
8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all lined games.
The record is 17 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.7 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(261) DETROIT @(262) CHICAGO
Play AGAINST CHICAGO against the spread in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(265) OAKLAND @(266) BALTIMORE
Play ON OAKLAND against the spread in Road games against conference opponents.
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.1 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 3 Wins and 20 Losses for the last three seasons (-19 units)
BET NOW!
----------------------------------
NFL ACTION TRENDS
Money Line
8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play ON NY GIANTS using the money line in Road games against NFC North division opponents.
The record is 16 Wins and 9 Losses since 1992 (+20.75 units)
BET NOW!
8:30 pm 10/2/2016
(275) KANSAS CITY @(276) PITTSBURGH
Play ON PITTSBURGH using the money line in Home games in October games.
The record is 36 Wins and 8 Losses since 1992 (+24.85 units)
BET NOW!
4:05 pm 10/2/2016
(267) DENVER @(268) TAMPA BAY
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using the money line in All games in home games.
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-15.65 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using the money line in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 4 Wins and 23 Losses for the last three seasons (-19.65 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using the money line in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 3 Wins and 22 Losses for the last three seasons (-19.45 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(253) CLEVELAND @(254) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 2 Wins and 12 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.9 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(253) CLEVELAND @(254) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using the money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 31 Wins and 33 Losses since 1992 (-46.55 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(257) SEATTLE @(258) NY JETS
Play ON SEATTLE using the money line in All games off a division game.
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.9 units)
BET NOW!
8:25 pm 9/29/2016
(101) MIAMI @(102) CINCINNATI
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using the money line in Home games against AFC East division opponents.
The record is 8 Wins and 17 Losses since 1992 (-20.1 units)
BET NOW!
8:25 pm 9/29/2016
(101) MIAMI @(102) CINCINNATI
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using the money line in All games against AFC East division opponents.
The record is 14 Wins and 35 Losses since 1992 (-31.75 units)
BET NOW!
NFL ACTION TRENDS
Half Time
8:30 pm 10/2/2016
(275) KANSAS CITY @(276) PITTSBURGH
Play ON PITTSBURGH in the first half in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play ON DALLAS in the first half in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play ON DALLAS in the first half in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(273) LA RAMS @(274) ARIZONA
Play ON LA RAMS in the first half in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 18 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.6 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(253) CLEVELAND @(254) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON in the first half in All games against AFC North division opponents.
The record is 4 Wins and 17 Losses since 1992 (-14.7 units)
BET NOW!
9:30 am 10/2/2016
(251) INDIANAPOLIS @(252) JACKSONVILLE
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE in the first half in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last three seasons (-11.1 units)
BET NOW!
Half Time
8:30 pm 10/2/2016
(275) KANSAS CITY @(276) PITTSBURGH
Play ON PITTSBURGH in the first half in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play ON DALLAS in the first half in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play ON DALLAS in the first half in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(273) LA RAMS @(274) ARIZONA
Play ON LA RAMS in the first half in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 18 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.6 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(253) CLEVELAND @(254) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON in the first half in All games against AFC North division opponents.
The record is 4 Wins and 17 Losses since 1992 (-14.7 units)
BET NOW!
9:30 am 10/2/2016
(251) INDIANAPOLIS @(252) JACKSONVILLE
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE in the first half in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last three seasons (-11.1 units)
BET NOW!
NFL ACTION TRENDS
Under
8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the total in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!
8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the total in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play UNDER SAN FRANCISCO on the total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.9 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(259) CAROLINA @(260) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 6 Overs and 20 Unders for the last three seasons (+13.4 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(259) CAROLINA @(260) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.8 units)
BET NOW!
--------------------------------
NFL ACTION TRENDS
Half Time Under
4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play UNDER DALLAS on the first half total in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!
4:05 pm 10/2/2016
(267) DENVER @(268) TAMPA BAY
Play UNDER DENVER on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!
Under
8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the total in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!
8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the total in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play UNDER SAN FRANCISCO on the total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.9 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(259) CAROLINA @(260) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 6 Overs and 20 Unders for the last three seasons (+13.4 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(259) CAROLINA @(260) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.8 units)
BET NOW!
--------------------------------
NFL ACTION TRENDS
Half Time Under
4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play UNDER DALLAS on the first half total in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!
4:05 pm 10/2/2016
(267) DENVER @(268) TAMPA BAY
Play UNDER DENVER on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!
Dolphins visit Cincinnati
September 27, 2016
Miami Dolphins (1-2 SU; 1-2 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2 SU; 1-2 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Lines: Cincinnati (-7) vs. Miami (+7); Total set at 45
Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off with a pair of 1-2 SU AFC teams meeting in Cincinnati as the Bengals host the Dolphins. Neither team can be happy with how the first three weeks of the year have gone, but truthfully, neither organization caught a break in their respective early season schedules.
Miami has already done battle with two preseason Super Bowl favorites from Seattle and New England, and then struggled and got a little lucky to knock off the hapless Browns in OT last week.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have played two Super Bowl contenders as well in losses to Pittsburgh and Denver in consecutive weeks, with a Week 1, one-point win over the Jets rounding out their early schedule. Things do lighten up a bit for both teams going forward, that's why it's important that the winner of this TNF game uses that win to build momentum heading into October.
Looking at the line, this is the third time in four weeks that Miami has opened up as a touchdown or higher underdog and all three of those games have been on the road. Their only ATS win vs the closing number came in Week 1 vs Seattle (12-10 loss) in a game the Dolphins should have really won outright. It's been a tough road to plod through for the Dolphins with three of their first four on the road against top tier opponents, but these early tests could pay off for Miami down the road and that's something to keep an eye on.
The Bengals are fully deserving of being touchdown favorites even at 1-2 SU, but with the bulk of the early action on Cincinnati pushing this line from -6 to -7, one can't help but wonder if the time is now to jump on the road side here.
Throwing aside that sloppy OT win vs. Cleveland that had Miami clearly looking past a Browns team starting their fifth different QB in as many games, the Dolphins have actually played fairly well this year. They had one bad drive vs. Seattle, one bad half vs. New England and if they can clean that stuff up a bit vs. Cincinnati they'll have a great chance to win outright. Cincinnati has gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four at home and the last four times they've hosted a Miami team, the Bengals are 0-4 ATS.
Miami also has a ferocious D-Line with Suh, Wake, and Williams up front and they should be able to create havoc for Bengals QB Andy Dalton all night long. The Bengals lead the NFL in sacks allowed through three weeks of play (12) and that deficiency from Cincinnati plays right into Miami's strength.
The worry here for Miami backers is whether or not QB Ryan Tannehill can take care of the ball and put up points. But after Denver's Trevor Siemian torched the Bengals defense all afternoon last week for 312 yards and 4 TD's, Tannehill shouldn't have too many problems on his hands.
Cincinnati entered the year as an outside contender to win it all this year, but this team doesn't appear to have the same talent on both sides of the ball as they have in recent years and simply put, this is too many points for a team struggling to find their identity in 2016 to be laying on a short week. This line could very well come back down to the -6 to -6.5 range, so grabbing that +7 with Miami is better done sooner than later.
September 27, 2016
Miami Dolphins (1-2 SU; 1-2 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2 SU; 1-2 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Lines: Cincinnati (-7) vs. Miami (+7); Total set at 45
Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off with a pair of 1-2 SU AFC teams meeting in Cincinnati as the Bengals host the Dolphins. Neither team can be happy with how the first three weeks of the year have gone, but truthfully, neither organization caught a break in their respective early season schedules.
Miami has already done battle with two preseason Super Bowl favorites from Seattle and New England, and then struggled and got a little lucky to knock off the hapless Browns in OT last week.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have played two Super Bowl contenders as well in losses to Pittsburgh and Denver in consecutive weeks, with a Week 1, one-point win over the Jets rounding out their early schedule. Things do lighten up a bit for both teams going forward, that's why it's important that the winner of this TNF game uses that win to build momentum heading into October.
Looking at the line, this is the third time in four weeks that Miami has opened up as a touchdown or higher underdog and all three of those games have been on the road. Their only ATS win vs the closing number came in Week 1 vs Seattle (12-10 loss) in a game the Dolphins should have really won outright. It's been a tough road to plod through for the Dolphins with three of their first four on the road against top tier opponents, but these early tests could pay off for Miami down the road and that's something to keep an eye on.
The Bengals are fully deserving of being touchdown favorites even at 1-2 SU, but with the bulk of the early action on Cincinnati pushing this line from -6 to -7, one can't help but wonder if the time is now to jump on the road side here.
Throwing aside that sloppy OT win vs. Cleveland that had Miami clearly looking past a Browns team starting their fifth different QB in as many games, the Dolphins have actually played fairly well this year. They had one bad drive vs. Seattle, one bad half vs. New England and if they can clean that stuff up a bit vs. Cincinnati they'll have a great chance to win outright. Cincinnati has gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four at home and the last four times they've hosted a Miami team, the Bengals are 0-4 ATS.
Miami also has a ferocious D-Line with Suh, Wake, and Williams up front and they should be able to create havoc for Bengals QB Andy Dalton all night long. The Bengals lead the NFL in sacks allowed through three weeks of play (12) and that deficiency from Cincinnati plays right into Miami's strength.
The worry here for Miami backers is whether or not QB Ryan Tannehill can take care of the ball and put up points. But after Denver's Trevor Siemian torched the Bengals defense all afternoon last week for 312 yards and 4 TD's, Tannehill shouldn't have too many problems on his hands.
Cincinnati entered the year as an outside contender to win it all this year, but this team doesn't appear to have the same talent on both sides of the ball as they have in recent years and simply put, this is too many points for a team struggling to find their identity in 2016 to be laying on a short week. This line could very well come back down to the -6 to -6.5 range, so grabbing that +7 with Miami is better done sooner than later.
Tech Trends - Week 4
September 28, 2016
THURSDAY, SEPT. 29
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at CINCINNATI (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Miami 6-18 last 24 on board but only 1-2 with Gase. Marvin Lewis just 6-7-1 as home chalk past two seasons but 12-7-1 in role back to 2013.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.
SUNDAY, OCT. 2
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE from London (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After losing six in a row SU vs. Colts, Jags won 51-16 last December. Colts "over" 7-3 last 10 away, Jags "over" 13-7 last 19.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns have covered last two but 4-9-1 last 14 on board. Skins 0-3 as chalk since LY and also 11-21 vs. line for Jay Gruden save the last four games of 2105 reg season when Skins surged late. Skins now "over" last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rex Ryan 0-1-1 vs. line against Belichick LY, but was 5-1 vs. spread against Pats in previous six with Jets. Bills no covers first two TY while Belichick has covered first three. Belichick 36-16 "over" at home since 2010.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over" and Patriots, based on "totals" and team trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at NY JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seattle "under" 5-1-1 "under" last seven reg season. Jets 10-6-2 vs. line for Bowles since LY.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on recent "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs dealt Panthers their only reg.-season loss of 2015 at Georgia Dome LY. But that has been Atlanta's only cover last seven at home (1-6). Carolina 6-2 vs. line last eight meetings. Last six meetings "under" as well.
Tech Edge: Panthers and "under," based on series trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears are 1-8 SU and vs. line at home since LY for Fox. Chicago 1-7 last eight on board since late 2015. Lions on 8-3 spread uptick since mid 2015 and have won last three SU at Soldier Field.
Tech Edge: Lions, based on team trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans only 9-29-3 vs. line since late 2013. Houston has owned this series with five covers in a row and 9-1 last ten. O'Brien 6-1 as home chalk since 2015, also "under" 7-2 last nine at NRG and "under" 7-1 last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Texans and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders have covered five straight on road. Tempted to toss Ravens 2015 numbers when injured and 1-6-1 at home vs. line, already 1-0 in 2016 at M&T Bank Stadium.
Tech Edge: Raiders, based on team trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Kubiak was 7-1-2 vs. line away since LY and 4-1-1 as road chalk. Bucs only 3-6 vs. line as host since LY and on 1-6 spread slide since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Niners "under" 9-1 last ten at Santa Clara, Dallas "under" 12-8 last 20.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at SAN DIEGO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bolts only 3-11 vs. line last 14 at home though did clock the Jags in 2016 Qualcomm opener. Brees however 8-3-1 last 12 as dog.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on Brees dog marks.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
LOS ANGELES at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Arians 5-1 vs. line against Fisher since 2013, though game he lost came at home LY. Rams under" 14-5-1 last 20 since late 2014, also 3-7-1 last 11 away vs. points.
Tech Edge: Cards and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at PITTSBURGH (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Chiefs only 1-5 as dog since 2015. Steel 8-2-1 vs. spread at home last 10 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Steelers, based on team trends.
MONDAY, OCT. 3
NY GIANTS at MINNESOTA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
G-Men 2-6-1 vs. line since late 2015. Zimmer 17-3 vs. line since 2015!
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on team trends.
September 28, 2016
THURSDAY, SEPT. 29
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at CINCINNATI (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Miami 6-18 last 24 on board but only 1-2 with Gase. Marvin Lewis just 6-7-1 as home chalk past two seasons but 12-7-1 in role back to 2013.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.
SUNDAY, OCT. 2
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE from London (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After losing six in a row SU vs. Colts, Jags won 51-16 last December. Colts "over" 7-3 last 10 away, Jags "over" 13-7 last 19.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns have covered last two but 4-9-1 last 14 on board. Skins 0-3 as chalk since LY and also 11-21 vs. line for Jay Gruden save the last four games of 2105 reg season when Skins surged late. Skins now "over" last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rex Ryan 0-1-1 vs. line against Belichick LY, but was 5-1 vs. spread against Pats in previous six with Jets. Bills no covers first two TY while Belichick has covered first three. Belichick 36-16 "over" at home since 2010.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over" and Patriots, based on "totals" and team trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at NY JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seattle "under" 5-1-1 "under" last seven reg season. Jets 10-6-2 vs. line for Bowles since LY.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on recent "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs dealt Panthers their only reg.-season loss of 2015 at Georgia Dome LY. But that has been Atlanta's only cover last seven at home (1-6). Carolina 6-2 vs. line last eight meetings. Last six meetings "under" as well.
Tech Edge: Panthers and "under," based on series trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears are 1-8 SU and vs. line at home since LY for Fox. Chicago 1-7 last eight on board since late 2015. Lions on 8-3 spread uptick since mid 2015 and have won last three SU at Soldier Field.
Tech Edge: Lions, based on team trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans only 9-29-3 vs. line since late 2013. Houston has owned this series with five covers in a row and 9-1 last ten. O'Brien 6-1 as home chalk since 2015, also "under" 7-2 last nine at NRG and "under" 7-1 last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Texans and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders have covered five straight on road. Tempted to toss Ravens 2015 numbers when injured and 1-6-1 at home vs. line, already 1-0 in 2016 at M&T Bank Stadium.
Tech Edge: Raiders, based on team trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Kubiak was 7-1-2 vs. line away since LY and 4-1-1 as road chalk. Bucs only 3-6 vs. line as host since LY and on 1-6 spread slide since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Niners "under" 9-1 last ten at Santa Clara, Dallas "under" 12-8 last 20.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at SAN DIEGO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bolts only 3-11 vs. line last 14 at home though did clock the Jags in 2016 Qualcomm opener. Brees however 8-3-1 last 12 as dog.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on Brees dog marks.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
LOS ANGELES at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Arians 5-1 vs. line against Fisher since 2013, though game he lost came at home LY. Rams under" 14-5-1 last 20 since late 2014, also 3-7-1 last 11 away vs. points.
Tech Edge: Cards and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at PITTSBURGH (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Chiefs only 1-5 as dog since 2015. Steel 8-2-1 vs. spread at home last 10 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Steelers, based on team trends.
MONDAY, OCT. 3
NY GIANTS at MINNESOTA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
G-Men 2-6-1 vs. line since late 2015. Zimmer 17-3 vs. line since 2015!
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on team trends.
Analyzing the Unbeatens
September 28, 2016
Patriots Now Most Likely To Be Last Unbeaten Standing?
Parity is alive and well in the NFL this season as 28 of the 32 teams have at least one victory through three weeks. That's tied for the third-highest total in the NFL through three games since the league expanded and realigned in 2002. The record is 30 in 2012.
There are just five unbeaten teams left: the Patriots, Broncos, Ravens, Vikings and Eagles. Since the playoff field was expanded to 12 teams in 1990, 75.6 percent of teams (99 of 131) that started 3-0 made the playoffs.
So which NFL team is likely to be the last to lose? Here's a look at the five and their BetOnline NFL odds to win the Super Bowl.
New England Patriots (+400): It apparently doesn't matter who starts at quarterback for Coach Bill Belichick, whose reputation only grows with every win by the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett.
Garoppolo missed last Thursday's blowout win of Houston with a shoulder injury, and Brissett, a third-round rookie, played solidly in the win but injured his thumb. It's not clear which will be under center Sunday at home vs. Buffalo, but both practiced on Tuesday.
New England opened as a 4.5-point favorite. With Tom Brady due back in Week 5, the Patriots likely won't be underdogs until Week 7 in Pittsburgh -- if then. If the Pats win that, they should be unbeaten in Week 10 when Seattle visits.
Denver Broncos (+900): Who needs Peyton Manning? Denver QB Trevor Siemian, who is essentially a rookie, became the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for at least 300 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in his first career road start as he led a comeback victory in Cincinnati in Week 3.
Despite losing some key free agents, the Denver defense is playing as well as it did last year. The Broncos could be staring at a trap game this week at Tampa Bay as 3-point favorites. After Sunday, Denver should be favored in every game until Week 9 in Oakland.
Minnesota Vikings (+1100): Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, running back Adrian Peterson and left tackle Matt Kalil are all done for the year. Yet the Vikings already have beaten top NFC contenders Green Bay and Carolina.
Mike Zimmer has to be the NFL Coach of the Year favorite. His defense hasn't allowed more than 16 points in a game yet. The Vikings are -4 for Monday's game vs. the Giants. Minnesota's next chance to be an underdog is Week 7 at Philadelphia.
Philadelphia Eagles (+1600): No question that Carson Wentz is the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year through three weeks. He is the first rookie QB since 1970 to start and win his team’s first three games to begin a season without throwing a pick. And yet the Browns didn't want him?
Philly beat two bad teams in Cleveland and Chicago to open the season but made a statement with last Sunday's 34-3 blowout of the Steelers, their worst loss since 1989. The Eagles are on the bye in Week 4. They could easily lose Week 5 in Detroit.
Baltimore Ravens (+2800): Hard to know how good Joe Flacco and Co. are. They have beaten Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville by a combined 13 points and those three clubs have totaled one win between them (Bills).
The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites on BetOnline's NFL odds this week against visiting Oakland. Baltimore likely will next be an underdog Week 6 at the Giants.
September 28, 2016
Patriots Now Most Likely To Be Last Unbeaten Standing?
Parity is alive and well in the NFL this season as 28 of the 32 teams have at least one victory through three weeks. That's tied for the third-highest total in the NFL through three games since the league expanded and realigned in 2002. The record is 30 in 2012.
There are just five unbeaten teams left: the Patriots, Broncos, Ravens, Vikings and Eagles. Since the playoff field was expanded to 12 teams in 1990, 75.6 percent of teams (99 of 131) that started 3-0 made the playoffs.
So which NFL team is likely to be the last to lose? Here's a look at the five and their BetOnline NFL odds to win the Super Bowl.
New England Patriots (+400): It apparently doesn't matter who starts at quarterback for Coach Bill Belichick, whose reputation only grows with every win by the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett.
Garoppolo missed last Thursday's blowout win of Houston with a shoulder injury, and Brissett, a third-round rookie, played solidly in the win but injured his thumb. It's not clear which will be under center Sunday at home vs. Buffalo, but both practiced on Tuesday.
New England opened as a 4.5-point favorite. With Tom Brady due back in Week 5, the Patriots likely won't be underdogs until Week 7 in Pittsburgh -- if then. If the Pats win that, they should be unbeaten in Week 10 when Seattle visits.
Denver Broncos (+900): Who needs Peyton Manning? Denver QB Trevor Siemian, who is essentially a rookie, became the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for at least 300 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in his first career road start as he led a comeback victory in Cincinnati in Week 3.
Despite losing some key free agents, the Denver defense is playing as well as it did last year. The Broncos could be staring at a trap game this week at Tampa Bay as 3-point favorites. After Sunday, Denver should be favored in every game until Week 9 in Oakland.
Minnesota Vikings (+1100): Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, running back Adrian Peterson and left tackle Matt Kalil are all done for the year. Yet the Vikings already have beaten top NFC contenders Green Bay and Carolina.
Mike Zimmer has to be the NFL Coach of the Year favorite. His defense hasn't allowed more than 16 points in a game yet. The Vikings are -4 for Monday's game vs. the Giants. Minnesota's next chance to be an underdog is Week 7 at Philadelphia.
Philadelphia Eagles (+1600): No question that Carson Wentz is the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year through three weeks. He is the first rookie QB since 1970 to start and win his team’s first three games to begin a season without throwing a pick. And yet the Browns didn't want him?
Philly beat two bad teams in Cleveland and Chicago to open the season but made a statement with last Sunday's 34-3 blowout of the Steelers, their worst loss since 1989. The Eagles are on the bye in Week 4. They could easily lose Week 5 in Detroit.
Baltimore Ravens (+2800): Hard to know how good Joe Flacco and Co. are. They have beaten Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville by a combined 13 points and those three clubs have totaled one win between them (Bills).
The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites on BetOnline's NFL odds this week against visiting Oakland. Baltimore likely will next be an underdog Week 6 at the Giants.
NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 4
Thursday's Game
Dolphins (1-2) @ Bengals (1-2)– Cincinnati lost its last two games; they’ve trailed all three games at halftime- they’re just 12-39 on 3rd down. Bengals are 12-7-2 in last 21 games as home favorite, 0-1 this year. Miami is 12-2 in last 14 series games, winning last three by 8-4-2 points. Dolphins won seven of last eight visits to Cincy; last one was in ’12. Miami is 12-14 in last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’ve turned ball over 7 times in last two games (-5), allowed 130 rushing yards. Cleveland missed FG on last play of regulation LW or Miami would be 0-3. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-2 as underdogs. AFC North teams are 4-4.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 4
Thursday's Game
Dolphins (1-2) @ Bengals (1-2)– Cincinnati lost its last two games; they’ve trailed all three games at halftime- they’re just 12-39 on 3rd down. Bengals are 12-7-2 in last 21 games as home favorite, 0-1 this year. Miami is 12-2 in last 14 series games, winning last three by 8-4-2 points. Dolphins won seven of last eight visits to Cincy; last one was in ’12. Miami is 12-14 in last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’ve turned ball over 7 times in last two games (-5), allowed 130 rushing yards. Cleveland missed FG on last play of regulation LW or Miami would be 0-3. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-2 as underdogs. AFC North teams are 4-4.
Best Bets - Week 4
September 28, 2016
Week 3 of the NFL season was a good one for the sportsbooks as there were numerous underdogs that not only covered the spread, but won outright.
This feature last week on underdogs of 4+ points isolated all the games that applied, and further narrowed it down to Buffalo (+177), Washington (+170), LA Rams (+190), and Philadelphia (+160) as those with the best chance to win.
Well all four of those underdogs won outright so bettors that pay attention to this weekly feature were able to come away with a big payday.
Week 4's list of sizable underdogs is a little shorter than what we've recently seen, and not counting the TNF game with Miami (+7.5), there are currently seven games that fit the “underdogs of +4 or more” and it's time to start narrowing down the teams that have the best chance to win outright.
Sportsbook.ag Week 4 Underdogs that Qualify
Cleveland (+7.5); ML (+300)
Buffalo (+6); ML (+200)
Tennessee (+5); ML (+195)
New Orleans (+4); ML (+165)
LA Rams (+7.5); ML (+275)
Kansas City (+6); ML (+210)
New York Giants (+4.5); ML (+185)
Right off the bat we have some repeat offenders from last week as Cleveland, Buffalo, and the LA Rams all find themselves on this list once again. It's likely that Cleveland will make a weekly appearance on this list each week and while I don't think they'll end up 0-16 SU, they are not a team anyone can have too much confidence in putting a ML bet down on.
Buffalo is in New England to get the last crack at beating the Patriots without Tom Brady and do appear to be a solid underdog to back on the ML. At +200 the value is there to back the Bills in this AFC East rivalry game, and everyone knows how badly Rex Ryan wants to beat Bill Belichick any chance he gets. The Bills came out of their early season funk with a big win vs. Arizona last week and should definitely be considered.
Speaking of Arizona, they host the third repeat offender on this list in the Rams, and this is one of those situations where it's extremely tough to consider the Rams for another outright upset. Arizona is mad at themselves for how they played vs. Buffalo last week and should very well bounce back with a dominant win like they did in Week 2 after they felt they gave one away in a Week 1 loss to those same Patriots.
Regarding the rest of the list, there are two teams I've isolated as the best teams to pull off the outright upset this week and they are the New Orleans Saints (+165), and New York Giants (+185).
The Saints are 0-3 SU and desperately need a win to save their 2016 season and should be able to find one in Drew Brees' old stomping grounds out in San Diego. The Chargers are really banged up on the injury front and while the Saints defense is arguably the worst in the league again this season, they did play well in their lone road game (16-13 loss @NYG) and I expect a similar performance here. Brees and company on offense will continue to do their part and at +165 on the ML, this is one of the best wagers out there this week.
The Giants are in a little tougher on the road against an undefeated Minnesota team who have beaten Green Bay and Carolina in back-to-back weeks. But the jury is still out on Minnesota's ability to put up points with their offense right now and that could pose a problem for the Vikings sooner than later. Yes, Minnesota's defense is the best in the league right now and Eli Manning is never shy about turning the ball over, but when the Giants play a complete game with limited mistakes for 60 minutes, they can beat anyone in this league.
With Minnesota being 0-7 ATS in their last seven appearances on MNF, expect this one to be close throughout.
September 28, 2016
Week 3 of the NFL season was a good one for the sportsbooks as there were numerous underdogs that not only covered the spread, but won outright.
This feature last week on underdogs of 4+ points isolated all the games that applied, and further narrowed it down to Buffalo (+177), Washington (+170), LA Rams (+190), and Philadelphia (+160) as those with the best chance to win.
Well all four of those underdogs won outright so bettors that pay attention to this weekly feature were able to come away with a big payday.
Week 4's list of sizable underdogs is a little shorter than what we've recently seen, and not counting the TNF game with Miami (+7.5), there are currently seven games that fit the “underdogs of +4 or more” and it's time to start narrowing down the teams that have the best chance to win outright.
Sportsbook.ag Week 4 Underdogs that Qualify
Cleveland (+7.5); ML (+300)
Buffalo (+6); ML (+200)
Tennessee (+5); ML (+195)
New Orleans (+4); ML (+165)
LA Rams (+7.5); ML (+275)
Kansas City (+6); ML (+210)
New York Giants (+4.5); ML (+185)
Right off the bat we have some repeat offenders from last week as Cleveland, Buffalo, and the LA Rams all find themselves on this list once again. It's likely that Cleveland will make a weekly appearance on this list each week and while I don't think they'll end up 0-16 SU, they are not a team anyone can have too much confidence in putting a ML bet down on.
Buffalo is in New England to get the last crack at beating the Patriots without Tom Brady and do appear to be a solid underdog to back on the ML. At +200 the value is there to back the Bills in this AFC East rivalry game, and everyone knows how badly Rex Ryan wants to beat Bill Belichick any chance he gets. The Bills came out of their early season funk with a big win vs. Arizona last week and should definitely be considered.
Speaking of Arizona, they host the third repeat offender on this list in the Rams, and this is one of those situations where it's extremely tough to consider the Rams for another outright upset. Arizona is mad at themselves for how they played vs. Buffalo last week and should very well bounce back with a dominant win like they did in Week 2 after they felt they gave one away in a Week 1 loss to those same Patriots.
Regarding the rest of the list, there are two teams I've isolated as the best teams to pull off the outright upset this week and they are the New Orleans Saints (+165), and New York Giants (+185).
The Saints are 0-3 SU and desperately need a win to save their 2016 season and should be able to find one in Drew Brees' old stomping grounds out in San Diego. The Chargers are really banged up on the injury front and while the Saints defense is arguably the worst in the league again this season, they did play well in their lone road game (16-13 loss @NYG) and I expect a similar performance here. Brees and company on offense will continue to do their part and at +165 on the ML, this is one of the best wagers out there this week.
The Giants are in a little tougher on the road against an undefeated Minnesota team who have beaten Green Bay and Carolina in back-to-back weeks. But the jury is still out on Minnesota's ability to put up points with their offense right now and that could pose a problem for the Vikings sooner than later. Yes, Minnesota's defense is the best in the league right now and Eli Manning is never shy about turning the ball over, but when the Giants play a complete game with limited mistakes for 60 minutes, they can beat anyone in this league.
With Minnesota being 0-7 ATS in their last seven appearances on MNF, expect this one to be close throughout.
NFL
Dunkel
Week 4
Thursday, September 29
Miami @ Cincinnati
Game 101-102
September 29, 2016 @ 8:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.148
Cincinnati
135.347
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 6
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 7 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7 1/2); Over
Dunkel
Week 4
Thursday, September 29
Miami @ Cincinnati
Game 101-102
September 29, 2016 @ 8:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.148
Cincinnati
135.347
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 6
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 7 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7 1/2); Over
NFL
Thursday, September 29
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Thursday Night NFL betting preview: Dolphins at Bengals
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Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 44.5)
Adam Gase may be a first-time head coach, but the 38-year-old was quick to light a fire under his underachieving team after benching a former first-round pick in last week's contest. Gase hopes his aggressive action will provide a jolt for the sputtering Miami Dolphins, who will look to prevent their third 1-3 start in five years on Thursday when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals.
"I'm over discussing any of this stuff with players," a testy Gase said on the heels of his team's 30-24 overtime victory over winless Cleveland. "We're either going to start getting the job done, or we're going to make changes." Right tackle Ja'Wuan James, who was the 19th overall selection of the 2014 draft, was relegated to the bench after he was burned on a rush that led to a strip sack on the final drive of the fourth quarter on Sunday. While Miami was fortunate to walk away with its first win, Cincinnati has followed its impressive season-opening victory over the New York Jets with a 24-16 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 2 and a 29-17 setback to Denver on Sunday. Mercurial Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict is eager to stop the bleeding when he makes his season debut on Thursday after serving a three-game suspension for repeated violations of safety-related playing rules.
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this AFC matchup with the Bengals favored by a touchdown at home. Since then the line has moved to Cincinnati -7.5. The total meanwhile, opened at 44.5 and has yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (+3) - Bengals (-2) + home field (-3) = Bengals -8
INJURY REPORT:
Dolphins - WR J. Landry (probable Thursday, shoulder)m TE D. Sims (probable Thursday, ankle), WR D. Parker (probable Thursday, hamstring), G D. Thomas (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), LB S. Paysinger (questionable Thursday, neck), LB J. Jenkins (questionable Thursday, thigh), LB K. Misi (questionable Thursday, neck), C A. Steen (questionable Thursday ankle), T B. Albert (questionable Thursday, ankle), RB A. Foster (doutbful Thursday, groin), C M. Pouncey (out Thursday, hip), TE J. Cameron (out Thursday, concussion).
Bengals - CB D. Kirkpatrick (questionable Thursday, calf), CB J. Shaw (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), K M. Nugent (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), S S. Williams (questionable Thursday, knee), TE T. Eifert (doubtful Thursday, ankle).
WEATHER REPORT: There is a chance it could get wet in Cincinnati on Thursday. The forecast is calling for a 55 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the area. That being said, there will only be a slight two to three mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest endzone.
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): With veteran Arian Foster still nursing a groin injury, Gase is expected to use rookie Kenyan Drake as the starter in a four-tier running back carousel that also features Jay Ajayi, Damien Williams and Isaiah Pead. Ajayi had an 11-yard touchdown run in overtime last week, but the Dolphins' 25th-ranked ground attack is mustering just 83 yards per game and is led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill (club-best 54 yards). Tannehill continues to click with trusted target Jarvis Landry (AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker, but Dion Sims will get the nod as fellow tight end Jordan Cameron nurses the fourth concussion in his six-year career.
ABOUT THE BENGALS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Jeremy Hill scored twice last week and has 10 rushing touchdowns in his last 11 games heading into a date with the sputtering Dolphins' defense, which allowed 169 yards rushing last week and an NFL second-worst 147.3 yards per game. Andy Dalton (AFC-best 938 passing yards) was limited to just 206 yards passing last week versus the Broncos and A.J. Green has just 10 catches for 115 yards combined over the last two games. The duo could get back on track at the expense of cornerback Xavien Howard, who was shredded for eight catches for 144 yards by Cleveland's Terrell Pryor last week.
TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 versus AFC opponents.
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Dolphins' last eight Thursday games.
* Under is 6-0 in Bengals' last six versus a team with a losing record.
CONSENSUS: The public is almost split down the middle for this AFC matchup, with 51 percent of wagers giving the Bengals the slightest of edges. As for the total, 59 percent of bettors are on the Over.
Thursday, September 29
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Thursday Night NFL betting preview: Dolphins at Bengals
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Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 44.5)
Adam Gase may be a first-time head coach, but the 38-year-old was quick to light a fire under his underachieving team after benching a former first-round pick in last week's contest. Gase hopes his aggressive action will provide a jolt for the sputtering Miami Dolphins, who will look to prevent their third 1-3 start in five years on Thursday when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals.
"I'm over discussing any of this stuff with players," a testy Gase said on the heels of his team's 30-24 overtime victory over winless Cleveland. "We're either going to start getting the job done, or we're going to make changes." Right tackle Ja'Wuan James, who was the 19th overall selection of the 2014 draft, was relegated to the bench after he was burned on a rush that led to a strip sack on the final drive of the fourth quarter on Sunday. While Miami was fortunate to walk away with its first win, Cincinnati has followed its impressive season-opening victory over the New York Jets with a 24-16 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 2 and a 29-17 setback to Denver on Sunday. Mercurial Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict is eager to stop the bleeding when he makes his season debut on Thursday after serving a three-game suspension for repeated violations of safety-related playing rules.
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this AFC matchup with the Bengals favored by a touchdown at home. Since then the line has moved to Cincinnati -7.5. The total meanwhile, opened at 44.5 and has yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (+3) - Bengals (-2) + home field (-3) = Bengals -8
INJURY REPORT:
Dolphins - WR J. Landry (probable Thursday, shoulder)m TE D. Sims (probable Thursday, ankle), WR D. Parker (probable Thursday, hamstring), G D. Thomas (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), LB S. Paysinger (questionable Thursday, neck), LB J. Jenkins (questionable Thursday, thigh), LB K. Misi (questionable Thursday, neck), C A. Steen (questionable Thursday ankle), T B. Albert (questionable Thursday, ankle), RB A. Foster (doutbful Thursday, groin), C M. Pouncey (out Thursday, hip), TE J. Cameron (out Thursday, concussion).
Bengals - CB D. Kirkpatrick (questionable Thursday, calf), CB J. Shaw (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), K M. Nugent (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), S S. Williams (questionable Thursday, knee), TE T. Eifert (doubtful Thursday, ankle).
WEATHER REPORT: There is a chance it could get wet in Cincinnati on Thursday. The forecast is calling for a 55 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the area. That being said, there will only be a slight two to three mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest endzone.
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): With veteran Arian Foster still nursing a groin injury, Gase is expected to use rookie Kenyan Drake as the starter in a four-tier running back carousel that also features Jay Ajayi, Damien Williams and Isaiah Pead. Ajayi had an 11-yard touchdown run in overtime last week, but the Dolphins' 25th-ranked ground attack is mustering just 83 yards per game and is led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill (club-best 54 yards). Tannehill continues to click with trusted target Jarvis Landry (AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker, but Dion Sims will get the nod as fellow tight end Jordan Cameron nurses the fourth concussion in his six-year career.
ABOUT THE BENGALS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Jeremy Hill scored twice last week and has 10 rushing touchdowns in his last 11 games heading into a date with the sputtering Dolphins' defense, which allowed 169 yards rushing last week and an NFL second-worst 147.3 yards per game. Andy Dalton (AFC-best 938 passing yards) was limited to just 206 yards passing last week versus the Broncos and A.J. Green has just 10 catches for 115 yards combined over the last two games. The duo could get back on track at the expense of cornerback Xavien Howard, who was shredded for eight catches for 144 yards by Cleveland's Terrell Pryor last week.
TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 versus AFC opponents.
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Dolphins' last eight Thursday games.
* Under is 6-0 in Bengals' last six versus a team with a losing record.
CONSENSUS: The public is almost split down the middle for this AFC matchup, with 51 percent of wagers giving the Bengals the slightest of edges. As for the total, 59 percent of bettors are on the Over.
NFL Week 4 lines that make you go hmmm...
The Dallas Cowboys offense is starting to pick up steam but heads to the West Coast to play the rival 49ers in Week 4.
This week, there’s more than one theme when it comes to the teams and value we’ve discovered. It has to do with the “D”: Detroit, Denver, and Dallas. Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 4:
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5, 46)
The opening line of Detroit -3 quickly evolved to -3 (Even) and to -2.5 for those bookmakers who wanted to get off the key number early in the week to test the waters. For Da Bears, we’ve seen nothing in three weeks.
The offense has been non-existent while their defense eventually tires from the amount of time they’re on the field. It’s not like their opponents were bad. The Cowboys, Eagles and Texans have been formidable early this season but Chicago hasn’t shown any signs of reversing its fortunes.
On the other hand, Detroit has been scoring at a high level, particularly on the road at Green Bay (loss this past week) and Indianapolis (opening win). The current line at -2.5 seems like a steal at this point and if you’re checking into this game, grab the number before this goes back up.
I don’t see anyone but die-hard Bear fans dropping their cash on their hometown favorites, so this game will definitely rise back up before kickoff. I don’t see the line coming into play. The Lions should outrun the Bears in this one.
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 44.5)
The opening line of Denver -3 hasn’t budged much in two days but that’s what seems surprising. After an opening win at Atlanta, the Bucs defense has been Swiss cheese allowing 77 points the past two games. Against a similarly defensively stronger team, they mustered just seven points against Arizona in Week 2.
Though I am wary of the second road game in a row factor, it seems like the Broncos can “Buc” that trend in this spot come Sunday. Trevor Siemian is more than capable of running the Broncos offense, has been incredibly efficient in the fourth quarter, and the defense is still among the best in the league.
Any time you can snag a team amidst a winning streak against a struggling opponent with a line of -3 or less, it seems like a value play despite all other factors. It doesn’t appear to be a letdown game in any sense as Denver has two 2-1 teams on its heels. Between these two teams, let’s ride the hot team until proven otherwise.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 46)
Dallas is heading to San Francisco and it seems the 49ers’ success of Week 1 has worn off quickly. Conversely, the Cowboys have tallied twice in the win column since their close call versus the Giants, otherwise they would be undefeated heading into this one.
The opening line of Dallas -3 hasn’t budged and if I were a Nevada bookmaker filling out the half-point parlay card numbers for this weekend, I’d be all over posting a -3.5 over a -2.5 but I’ll put my reputation on the line that no one can find two sportsbooks who will do that in the entire state.
The Cowboys offense has been clicking with point totals rising every week – duly noting the possible knee injury to Dez Bryant as we make these observations. Additionally, the San Francisco defense has been horrendous the past two games allowing a total of 83 points to score after an season-opening shutout. While the Niners will have their backers, particularly up in the Reno-Tahoe area, the money is going to be all over Dallas.
The spread will have no effect on the final score in my opinion. I also think this is a more important game for Dallas here on the road than the 49ers, who will be in a year-long funk throughout. Dallas, like Denver and Detroit, is the better team this week and that’s the edge we have.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8. 42.5)
Los Angeles is at Arizona this week with the Cardinals eight to 9-point favorites. I see nothing but awkward tells surrounding this game. The Rams have won two games in a row yet have been outscored by 17 points for the season. Arizona is 1-2 and has a plus-16 scoring ratio while losing two miserable games to AFC East opponents.
Los Angeles plays its second consecutive game on the road and that will be three games in four weeks away from the Coliseum. The Cardinals are suddenly faced with a must-win game after a horrendous outing in Buffalo where just about everything went wrong. They’ll need to address their kicking game for sure, but Arizona is considered a quality team and I view this as a big motivating game.
I see this line heading straight to -10 come Sunday and it being a big game for the bottom line of bookmakers with the favorite/Over plays commonplace in the late contests this week. Arizona is a big favorite for a reason and it’ll prove its worth this week.
The Dallas Cowboys offense is starting to pick up steam but heads to the West Coast to play the rival 49ers in Week 4.
This week, there’s more than one theme when it comes to the teams and value we’ve discovered. It has to do with the “D”: Detroit, Denver, and Dallas. Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 4:
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5, 46)
The opening line of Detroit -3 quickly evolved to -3 (Even) and to -2.5 for those bookmakers who wanted to get off the key number early in the week to test the waters. For Da Bears, we’ve seen nothing in three weeks.
The offense has been non-existent while their defense eventually tires from the amount of time they’re on the field. It’s not like their opponents were bad. The Cowboys, Eagles and Texans have been formidable early this season but Chicago hasn’t shown any signs of reversing its fortunes.
On the other hand, Detroit has been scoring at a high level, particularly on the road at Green Bay (loss this past week) and Indianapolis (opening win). The current line at -2.5 seems like a steal at this point and if you’re checking into this game, grab the number before this goes back up.
I don’t see anyone but die-hard Bear fans dropping their cash on their hometown favorites, so this game will definitely rise back up before kickoff. I don’t see the line coming into play. The Lions should outrun the Bears in this one.
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 44.5)
The opening line of Denver -3 hasn’t budged much in two days but that’s what seems surprising. After an opening win at Atlanta, the Bucs defense has been Swiss cheese allowing 77 points the past two games. Against a similarly defensively stronger team, they mustered just seven points against Arizona in Week 2.
Though I am wary of the second road game in a row factor, it seems like the Broncos can “Buc” that trend in this spot come Sunday. Trevor Siemian is more than capable of running the Broncos offense, has been incredibly efficient in the fourth quarter, and the defense is still among the best in the league.
Any time you can snag a team amidst a winning streak against a struggling opponent with a line of -3 or less, it seems like a value play despite all other factors. It doesn’t appear to be a letdown game in any sense as Denver has two 2-1 teams on its heels. Between these two teams, let’s ride the hot team until proven otherwise.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 46)
Dallas is heading to San Francisco and it seems the 49ers’ success of Week 1 has worn off quickly. Conversely, the Cowboys have tallied twice in the win column since their close call versus the Giants, otherwise they would be undefeated heading into this one.
The opening line of Dallas -3 hasn’t budged and if I were a Nevada bookmaker filling out the half-point parlay card numbers for this weekend, I’d be all over posting a -3.5 over a -2.5 but I’ll put my reputation on the line that no one can find two sportsbooks who will do that in the entire state.
The Cowboys offense has been clicking with point totals rising every week – duly noting the possible knee injury to Dez Bryant as we make these observations. Additionally, the San Francisco defense has been horrendous the past two games allowing a total of 83 points to score after an season-opening shutout. While the Niners will have their backers, particularly up in the Reno-Tahoe area, the money is going to be all over Dallas.
The spread will have no effect on the final score in my opinion. I also think this is a more important game for Dallas here on the road than the 49ers, who will be in a year-long funk throughout. Dallas, like Denver and Detroit, is the better team this week and that’s the edge we have.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8. 42.5)
Los Angeles is at Arizona this week with the Cardinals eight to 9-point favorites. I see nothing but awkward tells surrounding this game. The Rams have won two games in a row yet have been outscored by 17 points for the season. Arizona is 1-2 and has a plus-16 scoring ratio while losing two miserable games to AFC East opponents.
Los Angeles plays its second consecutive game on the road and that will be three games in four weeks away from the Coliseum. The Cardinals are suddenly faced with a must-win game after a horrendous outing in Buffalo where just about everything went wrong. They’ll need to address their kicking game for sure, but Arizona is considered a quality team and I view this as a big motivating game.
I see this line heading straight to -10 come Sunday and it being a big game for the bottom line of bookmakers with the favorite/Over plays commonplace in the late contests this week. Arizona is a big favorite for a reason and it’ll prove its worth this week.
Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: NFL knowledge to ponder
13) Minnesota Vikings are 3-0, despite scoring only three offensive TDs, tied with Houston for fewest in NFL. Vikings’ defense scored two TDs in the Tennessee game and ran a punt back for a score last week- you look at their offensive stats and wonder how the hell they’re 3-0, but they are.
12) Giants’ first three games were decided by total of six points; they were minus in turnovers all three games (-6) but the defense has forced 12 field goal tries, while allowing only four TDs, so they’ve been tough in the red zone.
11) Eagles had a great first three weeks, but have their bye this week, much like the Bengals two years ago, when they started the season 3-0, had their bye week……..then went 0-2-1 in their next three games. Momentum is a funny thing; you want to keep playing when things are going well.
10) 49ers have gone 3/out 17 times on 35 drives, most in NFL; Rams are next (15 of 34). Oakland/Atlanta have gone 3/out fewest times (three each).
Carolina has forced opponents to go 3/out 17 times on 34 drives, most in NFL; Texans are next, with 15 on 37 drives. Strangely, Patriots/Steelers have forced the fewest 3/outs (four each).
9) Falcons (7.0), Raiders (6.7) Redskins (6.5) are averaging the most yards per play. Rams/49ers (4.4 each) are last in yards/play, followed by Texans/Vikings (4.6).
8) Colts/Jets have allowed three TDs by defense/special teams, most in NFL. Saints, Bucs and Titans allowed two each. Minnesota scored three on defense/special teams, most in the league.
7) Colts play in London this week; usually the teams that play in London have their bye week the next week, but Indy requested that not happen this year, so I’ll be curious to see how they do next week, after so much travelling this week.
6) Buffalo Bills are only team in league two TD plays of 50+ yards this season. Jets have allowed three TDs of 50+ yards, most in NFL.
5) Colts have nine TDs thru three games, all on drives of 75+ yards, most in NFL. Chiefs have only one TD drive of 75+ yards in their first three games. Atlanta has allowed 12 TDs, all on drives of 75+ yards. Not good.
2) Cowboys (21 of 40), Lions (20 of 39) are only two teams converting more than half their 3rd down plays. Bills (10 of 36), Jaguars (12 of 42) have converted the lowest percentage on 3rd down.
1) Panthers/Bucs (218 each) have run the most plays this month, with Texans 3rd at 211. Bills (159), Bears (168) and Vikings (172) have run the fewest plays from scrimmage.
13) Minnesota Vikings are 3-0, despite scoring only three offensive TDs, tied with Houston for fewest in NFL. Vikings’ defense scored two TDs in the Tennessee game and ran a punt back for a score last week- you look at their offensive stats and wonder how the hell they’re 3-0, but they are.
12) Giants’ first three games were decided by total of six points; they were minus in turnovers all three games (-6) but the defense has forced 12 field goal tries, while allowing only four TDs, so they’ve been tough in the red zone.
11) Eagles had a great first three weeks, but have their bye this week, much like the Bengals two years ago, when they started the season 3-0, had their bye week……..then went 0-2-1 in their next three games. Momentum is a funny thing; you want to keep playing when things are going well.
10) 49ers have gone 3/out 17 times on 35 drives, most in NFL; Rams are next (15 of 34). Oakland/Atlanta have gone 3/out fewest times (three each).
Carolina has forced opponents to go 3/out 17 times on 34 drives, most in NFL; Texans are next, with 15 on 37 drives. Strangely, Patriots/Steelers have forced the fewest 3/outs (four each).
9) Falcons (7.0), Raiders (6.7) Redskins (6.5) are averaging the most yards per play. Rams/49ers (4.4 each) are last in yards/play, followed by Texans/Vikings (4.6).
8) Colts/Jets have allowed three TDs by defense/special teams, most in NFL. Saints, Bucs and Titans allowed two each. Minnesota scored three on defense/special teams, most in the league.
7) Colts play in London this week; usually the teams that play in London have their bye week the next week, but Indy requested that not happen this year, so I’ll be curious to see how they do next week, after so much travelling this week.
6) Buffalo Bills are only team in league two TD plays of 50+ yards this season. Jets have allowed three TDs of 50+ yards, most in NFL.
5) Colts have nine TDs thru three games, all on drives of 75+ yards, most in NFL. Chiefs have only one TD drive of 75+ yards in their first three games. Atlanta has allowed 12 TDs, all on drives of 75+ yards. Not good.
2) Cowboys (21 of 40), Lions (20 of 39) are only two teams converting more than half their 3rd down plays. Bills (10 of 36), Jaguars (12 of 42) have converted the lowest percentage on 3rd down.
1) Panthers/Bucs (218 each) have run the most plays this month, with Texans 3rd at 211. Bills (159), Bears (168) and Vikings (172) have run the fewest plays from scrimmage.
