Cnotes 2016 NFL Sept. Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

Close Calls - Week 2
September 20, 2016




Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 2 of the NFL regular season.


Tennessee Titans (+6) 16, Detroit Lions 15 (48): The Lions looked ready to be a surprise 2-0 squad with a 15-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Marcus Mariota found Delanie Walker for a touchdown pass to start the final frame, getting within the number with a five-point deficit for Tennessee. The Titans got two defensive stops to get the ball back and Mariota delivered with a long drive that ended with veteran Andre Johnson snagging the go-ahead touchdown catch on a fourth down play. The Lions moved to midfield, but the game ended with a Matthew Stafford interception.


New England Patriots (-6) 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (42): The Patriots had a big early lead, but lost Jimmy Garoppolo and the Dolphins rallied to within seven points with about six minutes to go. New England’s next drive lasted 13 plays and nearly got into the final minute of game clock, but a 39-yard field goal try was missed right. Miami threatened on its final possession reaching the New England 29-yard before failing on third and fourth down as New England held on for the win and narrow cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) 24, Cincinnati Bengals 16 (47½): The Steelers led 24-9, but Cincinnati scored a touchdown with under four minutes to go to get within eight points. The Bengals had a productive drive going again, but just after the two minute warning a fumble was lost in Pittsburgh territory as hope for the underdog and the ‘over’ faded away.


Dallas Cowboys (+3) 27, Washington Redskins 23 (47): Washington led 23-20 to sit even with the spread through three quarters with both NFC East squads looking for their first wins. With under five minutes to go, the Cowboys converted a touchdown drive to take a 27-23 lead, collecting for the ‘over’ in the process as well. Washington had a throw to the end zone at the end of the game but it was deflected out of the end zone.


New York Giants (-3½) 16, New Orleans Saints 13 (54): This game played out far lower scoring than anyone expected with a 10-3 New York edge heading into the fourth quarter and the only touchdown of the game coming on a blocked field goal return. That changed in the final frame with the Saints tying the game at 10-10 early and then an exchange of field goals left a 13-13 tie heading into the final minutes. New York was able to use the entire remaining clock to go 70 yards, kicking a field goal for the win as time expired, but leaving the narrow underdog cover for the Saints.


Carolina Panthers (-11½) 46, San Francisco 49ers 27 (44½): The Panthers took control in the middle quarters turning a 10-7 deficit into a 31-10 lead by the start of the fourth quarter. The spread result would be a toss-up in the final frame as the 49ers closed to within 11 points with scores within seven seconds of game clock following a fumbled kickoff catch. Carolina rallied to get a field goal going up by 14, but two plays later, the 49ers were in the end zone and within seven points as the outcome remained in doubt. The Panthers again were able to add three points, but the 10-point edge wasn’t going to be enough for those on the favorite. An interception gave Carolina another shot and the Panthers added a touchdown, although the extra-point was blocked in a potentially important play with the line hovering between -13 and -13½ most of the week. The 49ers had another interception from Blaine Gabbert and it was Carolina that added an additional three points to hang on for the heavy favorite cover.

Denver Broncos (-6) 34, Indianapolis Colts 20 (47): This AFC clash was tied 13-13 well into the third quarter with some missed opportunities on both sides. Denver added a field goal to lead by three heading into the final quarter and the Broncos cashed in with a 46-yard interception return touchdown to take a 10-point lead. Indianapolis answered posting an 80-yard touchdown drive to climb within three with four minutes to go in the game. The Broncos settled for a field goal just after the two-minute warning to lead 26-20, but those on Denver and the ‘over’ were bailed out as the spread and total results flipped on a 15-yard fumble return touchdown for the Broncos. Indianapolis did get past midfield as the clock wound down but another sack on Andrew Luck ended the final threat.


Atlanta Falcons (+4) 35, Oakland Raiders 28 (48): Atlanta led 21-14 heading into the fourth quarter, but the Raiders tied the game early in the fourth quarter. The Oakland defense couldn’t hold however as Atlanta would score two more touchdowns to lead by 14 while sealing the ‘over’ result. Oakland did add another touchdown, but Atlanta was able to pick up a first down to burn most of the clock and seal the win.

Minnesota Vikings (+1½) 17, Green Bay Packers 14 (43): The Vikings took control in the middle quarters behind great play from the defense and new quarterback Sam Bradford, leading 17-7. Green Bay was able to finish a 75-yard dive with much of the yardage coming on a pass interference penalty just as had been the case on the first Packers touchdown and it was a three-point game in the final frame. Green Bay got the ball back and had a new set of downs at the Minnesota 40-yard line with a touchdown capable of flipping the spread result, but Aaron Rodgers was sacked and fumbled. The Vikings picked up one first down, but couldn’t burn that much of the clock as the Packers drove near midfield again in the final two minutes. Another turnover ended the threat and the Vikings were just barely able to run out the remaining seconds to seal the win in their new stadium.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) 29, Chicago Bears 14 (43): After a tight first half, the Eagles pulled away with two touchdowns in the final minute of the third quarter, the second of which came following a Jay Cutler interception. A fumble in the fourth quarter lined up another short field for the Eagles and with a 29-7 lead, all that was left to settle was the total. Behind Brian Hoyer, the Bears reached the Philadelphia 19-yard line, but those on the ‘over’ needing another score didn’t get it as the Eagles held on second, third, and fourth-and-1 plays. Philadelphia was forced to punt a few minutes later and Eddie Royal delivered a 65-yard return touchdown for the scoring to reach the closing number of 43 though depending on the timing ‘over’ and ‘under’ results were possible as the Eagles did not add points despite taking the ball well into Chicago territory on its final drive.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL WEEK 3 WAGERING ANGLES


19th Sep 2016 | By: Cole Ryan


With two weeks completed in the NFL season, the football handicapper most likely feels like they have a good grasp on the league. Some teams are still undefeated and other teams are undoubtedly still looking for their first win, but the football bettor will have to dig deeper if they want to find the best bets. Winning football games against the spread always includes a lot of work. If you are not ready to put in the time it will cost you at the betting window.


Week 3 Football Wagering Angle: Bet on the Undefeated Underdog


The team that enters week three without a loss is a team that can be considered on a roll. It may be surprising by many football handicappers to see an undefeated team as an underdog in week three. However the point spread is dictated by many different variables. These teams could be on the road or the line could be adjusted due to injuries. Regardless of the reason, the undefeated underdog in week three has been a profitable bet. All-time, teams that start 2-0 and are underdogs in the third game of the season are 54-45-3 (55% ATS).


Last year two teams were in this spot as the Cincinnati Bengals were small underdogs at the Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys were similar tiny pups against the Atlanta Falcons. The Cowboys were playing in their first game without quarterback Tony Romo and they failed to win and cover while the Bengals managed to get the road victory over the Ravens as one point underdogs.


Week 3 Football Wagering Angle: Don’t Give up on the Losers


Week three is still early in the regular season, but the NFL fan and the football handicapper are both very unforgiving followers. They will easily give up on the team that starts the season 0-2 SU. When a team begins 0-2 SU on the season the stat that inevitably pops up is the one that says a team has trouble making the playoffs if they start the season 0-2. These teams become even more unbearable to bet on if they also failed to cover the spread in the first two games of the season. However that could be a big mistake. All-time, teams that lose their first two games and fail to cover in both contests are 106-87-3 (55% ATS) in their next game. Last year there were nine teams that qualified for this angle and they managed to finish 5-4 ATS in week three of the regular season.


The theory is that the team that has yet to win a game has plenty of pressure to get into the win column. The team that has yet to win and cover has most likely lost games that were not close and have even more pressure to get the job done. The bottom line is that just because a few weeks in the NFL have passed there is no reason to overreact to a team that has won both games to start the season or has yet to win a football game.
For week three look for teams that are undefeated or have yet to win a game to find a profit!

 

[CNOTES]

HOUSTON TEXANS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS NFL PICK, ODDS, & PREDICTION


19th Sep 2016 | By: Adam Burke


Matchup: Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Date/Time: September 22, 8:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
NFL Betting Odds From BetDSI Sportsbook
Spread: Houston -1.5
Total: 41


Getting by without Tom Brady wasn’t supposed to be this difficult. Nor was it supposed to be this easy. If that sounds like a contradiction, it most definitely is, but the New England Patriots hit Week 3 with a 2-0 record. Unfortunately, they now have a much bigger question than they expected at the quarterback position. Jimmy Garoppolo is sidelined for this short week home game against the Houston Texans and the Patriots will either go with Jacoby Brissett or somebody signed off the street for this primetime tilt on Thursday. As a result, Houston is road chalk at Foxboro.


This is the 11th time since 2001 that the Patriots have been catching points at home. They are 9-2 straight up and 10-1 against the spread. It’s only the fourth time since 2005 that the Patriots have been in an underdog role at home. It does make some sense, given the major uncertainty at the quarterback position and the fact that the Texans are off to a solid 2-0 SU and ATS start. On the other hand, Bill Belichick doubters were out in full force in Week 1 and the Patriots went to Arizona and won outright as more than a touchdown dog. New England was favored by 3.5 points before the Garoppolo injury.


Perhaps Bill O’Brien’s familiarity with the Patriots is coming into play here. O’Brien knows the personnel pretty well, even though he’s been the head coach of the Texans for three years now. The Texans offense hasn’t been prolific though two weeks, but it’s been solid and that’s more than enough with a defense like this. It would help, however, if Brock Osweiler took care of the football. The former Arizona State product is 41-of-68 for 499 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. Even though Lamar Miller’s 189 yards through two games sounds impressive, he has done it on 53 carries and the team is only averaging 3.3 yards per attempt. Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins are two legit weapons, with 21 catches for 378 yards and three touchdowns. Outside of Lamar Miller, no other skill player has more than five catches, so there does seem to be a balance issue here, which is leading to Osweiler’s interception rate.


Defensively, it’s very hard to throw on the Texans. They have a tremendous secondary and a top-notch pass rush. The Texans already have nine sacks and 11 passes defended. It’s hard to move the football in chunks through the air on Houston, which is why they’ve held the opposition to just 26 points this season. Establishing the run has been useful against the Houston defense, as the Texans have allowed 4.9 yards per carry. Kansas City ran for 6.3 yards per carry, but they couldn’t stay on the field and committed too many turnovers and penalties. This could be one of those cases where perception and overreaction are starting to cloud the judgment of the betting market. This game won’t be the best example, with an unproven or journeyman quarterback on a short week, but watch the Texans in the coming weeks.


Jacoby Brissett should get the start for the Patriots, as it would be crazy to bring in somebody with a short week, but it’s fair to see why people are panicking a little bit. Brissett is not a guy that has been in the system for a long time, but he has been studying the playbook since he was drafted out of North Carolina State in the third round. The Patriots don’t do anything without a reason, so he came off the board earlier than other QBs for a reason. Brissett looked pretty good in his time. He was sacked a couple of times, but he was 6-of-9 for 92 yards and ran for three first downs. Now, he knows he’s the guy and Josh McDaniels can construct a plan around that. Running the ball better would help, as LeGarrette Blount has only managed 3.8 yards per carry. Rob Gronkowski, who missed Weeks 1 and 2, is questionable this week.


The Patriots don’t have the Texans pass rush, but this is an organization that always fields a quality, overlooked defense. Even with Chandler Jones traded for financial reasons, the Patriots haven’t missed a beat. They’ll have their hands full with the Texans offense, though the Patriots defense has faced two very skilled offenses already. Stopping the run is a necessity for the Patriots, who have given up 4.6 yards per carry, but they have also forced three turnovers and Brock Osweiler has been passing out gifts early in the season. New England’s linebackers are excellent in coverage, so it will be interesting to see how the chess match goes between two coaches that know each other very well.


NFL Free Pick: New England Patriots +1.5


Nobody has gotten rich betting against the New England Patriots. Is this an awful spot for them? Absolutely. But, the Houston Texans have expectations for the first time since Matt Schaub was a useful NFL QB. They are 2-0 with two nice wins, but they seem a bit overrated. Is the drop from Jimmy Garoppolo to Jacoby Brissett worth the five points that the line moved? Time will tell, but it doesn’t seem like Houston is all that it’s cracked up to be and the Patriots are more than just a Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo-led offense.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 THURSDAY NIGHT NFL FOOTBALL ODDS


10th Sep 2016 | By: Aaron Ryan


2016 Thursday Night Football


Checkout passed season results below. Spread are the future lines posted on April 21, 2016, spread will be updated each week and live odds checkout our odds page.
Quick Breakdown of Results, for details scroll to bottom:


2 year Average points scored 44.05


2 year Average margin of victory 12.9


2 year Favorites 21-11-2


Over 17-17


Home Teams are 10-8 SU, 9-7-2 ATS


WK Matchup Spread SCORE ATS/OU SU


1 Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos +3/40.5 20-21 UnderDog/Over Broncos


2 New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills -1/40.5 31-31 UnderDog/Over Jets


3 Houston Texans at New England Patriots -8

4 Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals -6.5

5 Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers +6

6 Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers +3

7 Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers -9

8 Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans PK

9 Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5

10 Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens -8.5

11 New Orleans at Carolina Panthers -10

12 Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions – 12:30 p.m. ET 2.5

12 Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys – 4:30 p.m. ET -3.5

12 Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts – 8:30 p.m. ET 1.5

13 Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings -4.5

14 Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs -4.5

15 LA Rams at Seattle Seahawks -10

16 New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles -2.5



In 2015 the Under was the play finally going 11-7, Favorites came out in front again with 10-6-2 record.


2015 Thursday Night Football


WK Matchup Spread SCORE ATS/OU SU


1 Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots -7/51 21-28 Push/Under Patriots


2 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs -3/41.5 31-24 Underdog/Over Broncos


3 Washington Redskins at New York Giants -3/45 21-32 Favorite/Over Giants


4 Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers +3/44 23-20 Push/Under Ravens


5 Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans -4/41 27-20 Favorite/Over Colts


6 Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints +3/52.5 21-31 Underdog/Under Saints


7 Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers +6.5/41.5 20-3 Favorite/Under Seahawks


8 Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots -8/51.5 07-36 Favorite/Under Patriots


9 Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals -13/45.5 10-31 Favorite/Under Bengals


10 Buffalo Bills at New York Jets -2.5/41.5 22-17 Underdog/Under Bills


11 Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars -3/41 13-19 Favorite/Under Jaguars


12 Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions – 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS) -3/47 27-23 Favorite/Over Lions


12 Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys – 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX) -1/44.5 33-14 Favorite/Over Panthers


12 Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers – 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC) -8/45 17-13 Underdog/Under Bears


13 Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions +2/46 27-23 Favorite/Over Packers


14 Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals -10/46.5 20-23 Underdog/Under Cardinals


15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams -1/41 23-31 Favorite/Over Rams


16 San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders -4/45 20-23 Underdog/Under Raiders


Average Score 41.5


Average Margin of Victory 9.3




In 2014 the Over was again the dominate trend going 10-6, with a 2 year record of 20-11, This year Favorites ruled going 11-5.


2014 Thursday Night Football

WK Matchup Spread Score ATS Result SU Winner


1 Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks -5.5/47 36-16 Favorite/Over Seattle


2 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens -2.5/43.5 26-6 Favorite /Under Baltimore


3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons -7/47 56-14 Favorite/Over Atlanta


4 N. Y. Giants @ Washington Redskins -3.5/45 14-45 Underdog/Over NY Giants


5 Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers -8.5/47 42-10 Favorite/Over Green Bay


6 Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans 3/46 28-33 Favorite/Over Indianapolis


7 N. Y. Jets @ New England Patriots -9.5/45 27-25 Underdog/Over New England


8 San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos -9/51.5 35-21 Favorite/Over Denver


9 New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers +3/49 10-28 Favorite/Under New Orleans


10 Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals -6/45 3-24 Underdog/Under Cleveland


11 Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins -3.5/41 22-9 Favorite/Under Miami


12 Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders +7.5/42.5 24-20 Underdog/Over Oakland


13 Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions -7/48 34-17 Favorite/Over Detroit


14 Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears 3.5/52 28-41 Favorite/Over Dallas


15 Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams -5.5/40.5 12-6 Underdog/Under Arizona


16 Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jags -4/39 13-21 Favorite/Under Jacksonville


2014 Average points scored 46.6


2014 Average margin of victory 16.6


In 2013 Underdogs went 9-5-1 ATS and the “Over” hit 10 out of 15 times!


2013 Thursday Night Football

WK Matchup Score ATS Result SU Winner Line/OU


1 Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos 49-27 Favorite/Over Denver -7.5/48.5


2 N. Y. Jets @ New England Patriots 13-10 Underdog/Under New England -11/43


3 Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles 26-16 Underdog/Under Kansas City -3/51


4 San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams 35-11 Favorite/Over San Francisco 3.5/43


5 Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns 37-24 Favorite/Over Cleveland -3.5/41


6 N. Y. Giants @ Chicago Bears 27-21 Underdog/Over Chicago -8/47


7 Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals 34-22 Favorite/Over Seattle 5/41


8 Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-13 Favorite/Over Carolina 7/39


9 Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins 22-20 Underdog/Under Miami 2.5/42.5


10 Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings 34-27 Underdog/Over Minnesota 1/49


11 Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans 30-27 Push/Over Indianapolis -3/42


12 New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons 17-13 Underdog/Under New Orleans 8/53


13 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens 22-20 Underdog/Over Baltimore -3/40.5


14 Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20 Underdog/Over Jacksonville -3/43.5


15 San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos 27-20 Underdog/Under San Diego -10/57


2013 Average points scored 48.1


2013 Average margin of victory 9.33


Whether or not you are in favorite of the Thursday night NFL action, it does break up the week a little bit. It also gives football fans and bettors something to look forward to in anticipation of the weekend. Attempting to capitalize on growing Thursday night TV ratings, the NFL now has at least one game on TV every Thursday night during the season, except for Week 17. That includes the “Season Kickoff” game on September 10 and, of course, the Thanksgiving holiday.


In the past, these matchups haven’t always been exciting, as the league has thrown some of the league’s bottom feeders into the Thursday night fire as sacrificial lambs. In looking at this season’s Thursday Night Football lineup, that appears to be a thing of the past. There are some excellent, marquee matchups for the Thursday night crowd to enjoy this season.


These standalone primetime games are big draws for the NFL and big draws for the sportsbooks as well. Players are inclined to have action with just one game that they know they are going to watch anyways. In looking at the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football schedules, it’s safe to say that the 2015 Thursday Night Football schedule rivals the traditional powerhouse matchups that NBC and ESPN are going to enjoy this season.


Since 2006, the NFL has had these Thursday Night Football games. It may have taken them all that time to get the matchups right, but Thursday nights are going to be a lot more exciting this season than in years past. If you want to get in on the action, and you know you do, we recommend BetDSI. The promo code BANG200 will open up a 200 percent sign-up bonus for you. How can you beat that?


For Thursday nights, the opening kickoff game will be on NBC in Week 1. From Week 2 through Week 8, CBS and NFL Network will simultaneously air the Thursday night matchups. From Week 9 to Week 16, games will exclusively be on NFL Network. All games kick off at 8:25 p.m. ET unless otherwise noted. For current Thursday night football odds checkout our Live Lines


Wow! The NFL seems to have realized just how much they can capitalize on these Thursday night matchups because the first 12 games are all division rivalries. These aren’t all division rivalries like the Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, although, one of the scheduled games will be a matchup of Marcus Mariota against Blake Bortles. There are some heavy hitters here.


The Denver Broncos will have just one week to work out the kinks with new head coach Gary Kubiak before taking on a stout Kansas City Chiefs defense. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers play their two meetings this season in primetime, with the first one in Week 4 on Thursday night and the second one during Week 17 on Sunday Night Football. An Andrew Luck vs. JJ Watt matchup awaits in Week 5 in a game that will generate a lot of buzz if the Houston Texans can get off to a good start.


You might feel the bumps and bruises of the October 22 game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers from your couch or barstool as both teams will amp up the hitting for that annual bloodbath. Could the upstart Miami Dolphins make a big statement at Gillette Stadium in Week 8 against the New England Patriots? The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions open up the final month of the season with some fireworks in Week 13. Interesting matchups with playoff implications round out the remaining weeks of the season.


Whether the game you’re most interested in is on Thursday night, Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, or Monday night, BangTheBook.com should be your home for NFL coverage all season long.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ODDS & PICKS


10th Sep 2016 | By: Aaron Ryan


One of the most beloved weekly sporting events is Monday Night Football. It’s hard to find anybody that has never heard Hank Williams Jr. belt out “Are you ready for some football?” Monday Night Football is a global phenomenon nowadays, as the games are broadcast in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Portugal, Brazil, and other countries.


The brainchild of Roone Arledge in 1970, this weekly event has been a staple of the National Football League and a favorite of bettors since the inception of Monday Night Football. Now on ESPN, it is the last chance for gamblers to get back some of Sunday’s losses or build off of a profitable weekend before looking ahead to the next week. Because of television ratings, primetime football often draws some of the best matchups, as fans, bettors, oddsmakers, bookies, and people that don’t even care about football gather around the tube and enjoy.


Don’t let the NFL fool you. They know that fantasy football and NFL betting drive the ratings bonanza that they see every Thursday, Sunday afternoon, and especially on Sunday night and Monday night. Oddsmakers are prepared for these primetime matchups because they draw some of the biggest betting handles of the week. Shouldn’t you be prepared as well?


The 2016 Monday Night Football schedule is one of the best in recent memory and every game features profit potential for the astute handicapper. We recommend BetDSI for all of your NFL needs, including Monday Night Football, because an exclusive 200 percent sign-up bonus awaits with the promo code BANG200. Impress your friends and coworkers on Monday morning with your knowledge of the odds for the game and the upcoming week of action courtesy of our Live Lines page and then make your wagers and sit back and cheer your side or total on to victory.


Here is a look at the 2016 Monday Night Football schedule (all games 8:15 p.m. ET unless otherwise noted) we also listed the Opening CG Technology Odds from April 21st, checkout our matchup page for updated odds:


Date Game Preview & Pick Opening Odds 4/21/16


Sept. 12 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins Steelers -3


Sept. 12 St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Rams -2


Sept. 19 Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears Bears -2.5


Sept. 26 Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Saints -1.5


Oct. 3 New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings Vikings -6


Oct.10 Tampa Bay Bucs @ Carolina Panthers Panthers -10


Oct. 17 New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals Cardinals -4


Oct. 24 Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos Broncos -6.5


Oct. 31 Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Vikings -2.5


Nov. 7 Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks Seahawks -10


Nov. 14 Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants Bengals -2


Nov. 21 Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders Raiders -2


Nov. 28 Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles Packers -3.5


Dec. 5 Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets Jets -2


Dec. 12 Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Patriots -9


Dec. 19 Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins Panthers -3


Dec. 26 Detriot Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Cowboys -5




Quick Breakdown of Results, for more details scroll to bottom:


2 year Average points scored 46.79


2 year Average margin of victory 8.8


2 year Favorites 11-23-1 ATS


2 year Over 17-17 ATS


Last year Division faves went 1-2-1 ATS with the total going under 4 out of 4 times
What a great list of games! Long-standing division rivalries get their time to shine and some compelling cross-conference matchups featuring prospective playoff teams like Baltimore vs. Arizona, the New York Giants vs. Miami, Chicago vs. San Diego, and Kansas City vs. Green Bay. The atmosphere is always electric for these games and the crowd’s involvement is just another example of how much Monday Night Football means to football fans. Check back every week as we add links to our Monday Night Football game previews to give you the best, most detailed picks and prognostications.


The beauty of Monday Night Football is that you never know what you’re going to see. Remember Terrell Owens’s infamous “Sharpie” touchdown celebration on October 14, 2002 that sent shockwaves through the NFL? How about Mike Vick’s six touchdown performance in Philadelphia’s blowout win over Washington on November 15, 2010? John Elway and Joe Montana traded touchdowns for the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs back in 1994 in one of the most memorable MNF games ever. Tony Dorsett’s 99-yard touchdown run was a MNF highlight in 1983. The New Orleans Saints returned to the Superdome first the first time after Hurricane Katrina did severe damage to the facility for Monday Night Football on September 25, 2006 in front of a boisterous sell-out crowd and won 23-2 over the Atlanta Falcons. Remember Joe Theismann’s broken leg? The replacement refs in 2012 with the unbelievable Green Bay vs. Seattle finish? There are so many more memorable moments that we can’t possibly list all of them. How can you not love Monday Night Football?


We’re excited about another season of Monday Night Football on ESPN and you should be as well. Keep it tuned right here to BangTheBook for informative NFL previews on every game, especially the Monday Night Football matchups. Don’t forget to make BetDSI your home for betting on football throughout the 2015 regular season. Their reputation is second to none in the industry and the amount of wagering options for big games like Monday Night Football include fair side and total lines, a collection of prop bets, halftime wagering, and live betting.


In 2015 Favorites went 4-12-1, with Underdogs winning straight-up 8 out the 12 wins. Overs/Unders 5-12


2015 Monday Night Football


WK Matchup Spread Score ATS Result SU Winner


1 Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons +3/55 24-26 Underdog/Under Falcons


1 Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers +2.5/41.5 3-20 Underdog/Under 49ers


2 New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts -6/45 20-7 Underdog/Under Jets


3 Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers -4.5/47 28-38 Favorite/Over Packers


4 Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks -10/43 10-13 Underdog/Under Seahawks


5 Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers -4/45.5 24-20 Underdog/Under Steelers


6 New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles -3.5/50.5 7-27 Favorite/Under Eagles


7 Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals -10/49.5 18-26 Underdog/Under Cardinals


8 Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers -5/45.5 26-29 Underdog/Over Panthers


9 Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers -3.5/49 22-19 Underdog/Under Bears


10 Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals -10/46.5 10-6 Underdog/Under Texans


11 Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots -7/47.5 13-20 PUSH/Under Patriots


12 Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns -6/41 33-27 Underdog/Over Ravens


13 Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins -2/43 19-16 Underdog/Under Cowboys


14 New York Giants at Miami Dolphins +2.5/47.5 31-24 Favorite/Over Giants


15 Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints -2.5/52 35-27 Favorite/Over Lions


16 Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos -4/39 17-20 Underdog/Under Broncos


2015 Average points scored 41.47


2015 Average margin of victory 7.12




In 2014 Underdogs again came out ahead going 10-7 ATS, the total went “Over” 12-5, scoring was up almost 7 points from the previous year while the margin of victory remained the same.


2014 Monday Night Football


WK Matchup Spread Score ATS Result SU Winner


1 N. Y. Giants @ Detroit Lions -6/46.5 35-14 Favorite/Over Detroit


1 San Diego Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals -3/44.5 18-17 Underdog/Under Arizona


2 Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts -3/53.5 27-30 Underdog/Over Philadelphia


3 Chicago Bears @ N. Y. Jets -3/46 19-27 Underdog/Over Chicago


4 New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs +3/45 41-14 Underdog/Over Kansas City


5 Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins +7/45.5 17-27 Favorite/Under Seattle


6 San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams -3.5/43.5 17-31 Favorite/Over San Francisco


7 Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3/44.5 30-23 Favorite/Over Pittsburgh


8 Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys -9/49 17-20 Underdog/Under Washington


9 Indianapolis Colts @ N. Y. Giants +3/50.5 24-40 Favorite/Over Indianapolis


10 Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles -6/45 45-21 Favorite/Over Philadelphia


11 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans -7/46 24-27 Underdog/Over Tennessee


12 Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints -3.5/56 27-34 Underdog/Over Baltimore


13 Miami Dolphins @ N. Y. Jets -6.5/42 13-16 Underdog/Under NY Jets


14 Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers -12.5/56 43-37 Underdog/Over Atlanta


15 New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears +3/53.5 31-15 Favorite/Under New Orleans


16 Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals +3.5/47 28-37 Underdog/Over Cincinnati


2014 Average points scored 52.1


2014 Average margin of victory 10.47




In 2013 Underdogs went 9-7-1, the total went “Under” 9-8


2013 Monday Night Football


Week Matchup Spread Score ATS Result SU Winner


1 Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins -4/52 33-27 Underdog/Over Philadelphia


1 Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers 3/44 31-28 Underdog/Over Houston


2 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals -7/40 20-10 Favorite/Under Cincinnati


3 Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos -16/48.5 37-21 Push/Over Denver


4 Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints -7/50 38-17 Favorite/Over New
Orleans


5 N. Y. Jets @ Atlanta Falcons -10/45 30-28 Underdog/Over N. Y. Jets


6 Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers 1.5/51 19-9 Underdog/Under San Diego


7 Minnesota Vikings @ N. Y. Giants -4/47.5 23-7 Favorite/Under N. Y. Giants


8 Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams 12/43.5 14-9 Underdog/Under Seattle


9 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers -10.5/51.5 27-20 Underdog/Under Chicago


10 Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.5/40 22-19 Underdog/Over Tampa Bay


11 New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers -3/46.5 24-20 Favorite/Under Carolina


12 San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins 5/45.5 27-6 Favorite/Under San Francisco


13 New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks -6.5/49.5 34-7 Favorite/Under Seattle


14 Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears -1/49 45-28 Favorite/Over Chicago


15 Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions -5/50.5 18-16 Underdog/Under Baltimore


16 Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers -14/46.5 34-24 Underdog/Over San Francisco


2013 Average points scored 45.4


2013 Average margin of victory 10.58

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Texans (2-0) at Patriots (2-0)
Date: September 22, 2016 8:25 PM EDT

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. - Houston Texans cornerback Kevin Johnson remembers playing against Jacoby Brissett when both played in the Atlantic Coast Conference.


"I remember him being a good player, an athletic mobile quarterback," Johnson, who played at Wake Forest, said as his Texans prepared for Thursday night's game at the New England Patriots -- and against the rookie quarterback making his first NFL start.


"He's a guy who can make the throws, a great player we have to respect and prepare for."


Brissett, the former Florida and North Carolina State quarterback and No. 3 quarterback on the New England roster, moved up to No. 2 with the four-game Deflategate suspension of Tom Brady. Jimmy Garoppolo started the first two games but a shoulder injury to Garoppolo in the Week 2 win over the Dolphins shook up the depth chart again.


While coach Bill Belichick is unlikely to declare it fact, Brissett is almost certainly the starter when these two 2-0 teams get together at Gillette Stadium.


"He has really good poise, very smart guy," says Texans coach Bill O'Brien. "He's got good size. He's like 235 pounds. He's a good football player. When we evaluated him in the draft, we felt the same way then, too. He's a bright guy and he's coached very well there."


O'Brien was Belichick's offensive coordinator before O'Brien left to become head coach at Penn State. His defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel had the same job in New England. Linebackers coach Mike Vrabel played for the Patriots, as did nose tackle Vince Wilfork.


In short, the Texans know the Patriots.


But the familiarity with Brissett, who has played 34 minutes and attempted nine passes in the NFL, is another story.


Tuesday, Belichick didn't officially declare Garoppolo, who suffered a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder, out for the game. He was listed as a limited participant on the official practice report.


Belichick also wouldn't say if the Patriots were bringing in another quarterback. Wide receiver Julian Edelman, a quarterback in college at Kent State, would be available for emergencies.


"Jacoby's done a good job for us," Belichick said. "He's improved every day. He's a hard-working kid. He's in here early, stays late, studies the game. He's got good physical talent. He's improved steadily since he's been here -- after the draft and all way through."


Brissett was 6 of 9 and led his team to what turned out to be the winning touchdown drive early in the second half on Sunday. What was supposed to be a blowout turned close when the Miami Dolphins scored on three straight possessions and had a chance to tie.


The Texans have not allowed a touchdown in six quarters and Houston notched wins over the Bears and Chiefs to come to Foxborough as a rare road favorite.


"The Texans are very good on defense ... they take the ball away, they create long-yardage situations, they're one of the best third-down teams in the league again this year, which they've been in the past," said Belichick, whose offense has been missing tight end Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) for the first two games and may not have him again. "They don't give up many points. The biggest challenge is always scoring points - that's the name of the game, that's what we play for. They haven't given up many. I'm sure it won't be easy to score - we'll have to do a good job, execute well."


Belichick was asked by the Houston media via conference call if star defensive end J.J. Watt reminds him at all of Lawrence Taylor, the Hall of Fame linebacker he coached as an assistant with the Giants. The pair are the only two players ever to win NFL defensive player of the year honors three times.


"They both play pretty hard, yeah," Belichick said. "I think J.J. is a relentless, a relentless player. Very instinctive and I'd say a lot like Taylor, when at the most critical times in the most important plays, that's where those guys showed the most and that's what great players do."


The New England defense, which is missing key pass-rushing linebacker Rob Ninkovich (suspension), shut Ryan Tannehill out in the first quarter Sunday, but then saw the Dolphins' quarterback throw for 389 yards in the last three quarters.


Brock Osweiler, the quarterback who played such an important part in the Denver Broncos' run to the title last year, is 41 of 68 for 499 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions in his first two games running the Houston offense.


New England's LeGarrette Blount and Houston's Lamar Miller, the running backs for the two teams, have run for 193 and 189 yards, respectively, in the first two games.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 3 NFL


Texans (2-0) @ Patriots (2-0)– Rookie QB Brissett makes first NFL start here; Garropolo will be a backup- they didn’t sign another QB. Tough spot for Texans; long travel with short week in their road opener. Houston won its first two games at home, not allowing a TD in 2nd half of either game. Patriots scored TD on first drive of all four halves so far, winning first two games 23-21/31-24. New England won last four series games, three by 13+; they won 27-6 (-5) in Houston LY, outgaining Texans 313-189. Houston is 0-3 in Foxboro, losing all three by 13+. Houston coach O’Brien is a former Patriot QB coach. Brissett was 15-11 as a starter at NC State last two years. Texans won four of last five road openers. Over last 8+ years, Patriots are 3-0 as a home underdog. Houston is 4-0 as a road favorite under O’Brien.


Cardinals (2-0) @ Bills (0-2)– Buffalo fired its OC after 37-31 loss LW; not sure how that helps; they had three extra days to rest after loss to Jets. Curious to see how the play calling changes, since players/owner met about play calling before OC was fired. Arizona covered its last eight road openers (6-2 SU); under is 7-3 in their last 10 road openers- they split first two home games, despite a +7 turnover margin. Redbirds are 8-2 as road favorites in Arians era; they’re 4-6 vs spread coming off a win. Bills won five of last six series ganes. Cardinals are 1-3 in Buffalo, with last visit in ’04, only win in 1971. Buffalo covered nine of its last 11 games as a home underdog.


Raiders (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)– LeBeau’s defense allowed only one TD on 18 drives in first two games; they rallied from down 15-3 in 4th quarter to even record at Detroit. Oakland has allowed 69 points in two games, giving up eight TDs on 21 drives. Raiders allowed 1,035 TY in two games, giving up six TDs, four FGs in 11 red zone drives. Tennessee won three of last four series games; five of last seven series games were decided by 5 or less points. Raiders are 2-5 in Tennessee; they beat Titans 24-21 (-1) LY, outgaining them 407-249, converting 8-15 on 3rd down. Oakland covered six of its last seven games as a road underdog. Tennessee is 9-15-1 in its last 25 games as a home favorite.


Browns (0-2) @ Dolphins (0-2)– Cleveland blew 20-0 first quarter lead LW, now start 3rd QB in three weeks (USC rookie Kessler). Dolphins drop way down in class here, after losing to Seattle/Patriots- over last decade, they’re 11-26 as home favorites. Miami won three of its last four home openers, are 4-7 vs spread in last 11, with last seven HOs going over total. Cleveland ran ball for 265 yards in first two games- they were outscored 39-3 in second half of the games. Browns won four of last six series games, splitting last two visits here, last of which was in ’10. Five of last six series totals were 33 or less. Miami was outscored 30-6 in first half of its games; all four of their TDs came in second half of games.


Ravens (2-0) @ Jaguars (0-2)– Baltimore rallied back from down 20-0 in Cleveland LW; they outscored first two opponents 26-0 in second half, are 10-8-1 vs spread in last 19 road games. Jacksonville is 11-21-1 vs spread in its last 33 home games; they allowed 65 points in losing first two games. Jax is 3-2 in last five series games, beating Ravens 22-20 (+5) LY, in a game where Baltimore outgained them 397-258 but was -3 in turnovers. Ravens are 2-6 in last eight visits here, losing last two 30-2/12-7. Since ’12, Baltimore is 12-14-3 in games with spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, Jaguars are 8-15. NFL-wide, home teams are 10-10 vs spread in non-divisional games so far this season.


Lions (1-1) @ Packers (1-1)– Detroit blew 21-3 lead in opener, won it late, then blew 15-3 lead LW and lost at home to Titans. Lions snapped 21-game skid at Lambeau LY, then lost rematch on last play of game, on long Hail Mary pass- two games were decided by total of six points. Green Bay gained 294-263 TY in splitting first two road games- over last 7 years, Pack is 33-19-1 as a home favorite (9-5 in last 14 NFC North games)- they won eight of last nine home openers (6-2 last 8 at as favorite in HOs); four of their last five HOs went over total. Detroit is 6-11 as an underdog under Caldwell, 6-7 on road; last 8 years, they’re 6-10 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite.

Broncos (2-0) @ Bengals (1-1)– Cincy is 12-6-2 vs spread in last 20 games as home faves; they won last six regular season games the week after playing rival Steelers. First road start for Denver QB Siemian; last 6 years, Broncos are 8-10 as road underdogs. Denver won five of last six series games, going 3-2 in last five visits to Queen City- they beat Bengals 20-17 (-3.5) in OT LY. Cincy is 9-3 in last 12 home openers, winning last four- they’re 6-3-1 as favorites in HOs. Denver won its last three road openers, is 6-3 in last nine. Under is 9-4-1 in Broncos’ last 14 road openers, 7-1 in Bengals’ last eight HOs. Bengals had only 103 yards on ground in first two games, 690 passing- they’re 7-27 on third down, need more balance.


Vikings (2-0) @ Panthers (1-1)– Minnesota is 15-2 vs spread in its last 17 regular season games; Vikes are 10-3 as road dogs under Zimmer. Bradford was 22-31/254 in his first Minny start, nine days after his trade from Philly. Vikings forced six turnovers (+5) in their first two games- they won field position by 9-12 yards. Minnesota is 7-5 in series with four of last five decided by 10+ points; they’re 1-2 here, with last visit in ’11. Since 2013, Carolina is 13-4-2 as a home favorite; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games. Panthers are 16-30 on 3rd down this year; they’ve outrushed opponents 333-213. One of Bradford’s many season-ending injuries happened here, when he played for the Rams.

 

[Zodiac]

Dude thanks for all the hard work. Greatly appreciate the info.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 3
September 21, 2016


THURSDAY, SEPT. 22


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Lots of Belichick connections in Houston. Pats won 27-6 LY but Texans have covered their five reg.-season games since. Belichick 6-1-3 vs. line at home since LY, 14-6-3 last 23 at Gillette, 40-18 “over” at home in reg season since 2010.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Pats, based on “totals” and team trends.




SUNDAY, SEPT. 25


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Kubiak 6-1 as dog since LY, Broncs 6-2-1 vs. line away in 2015. Cincy 4-1-1 vs. line in the six games Dalton started and finished LY at home.
Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
With loss to Vikes, Titans fall to 2-8 SU and vs. spread under Mularkey, and Tennessee now 8-28-3 last 39 on board. Raiders 7-2 vs. line away since LY.
Tech Edge: Raiders, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rex no covers first two TY but he was 5-2 vs. line at home LY and Bills have covered three of last four as home dog. Cards 8-2 vs. spread last ten as reg.-season visitor.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags have now covered 3 of last 4 as home dog and also “over” 13-6 last 19 since late 2014. If JV chalk note 3-3 mark in rare role since 2014. If Ravens a dog note Harbaugh 4-1 vs. line in role away LY.
Tech Edge: Ravens, if dog, and "over," based on Jags “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies on 2-9-1 spread skid since mid 2015. Also “under” six of last seven. Dolphins just 5-11 as home chalk since 2013.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on Browns “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men 5-1 SU and vs. line last six vs. Skins. Gruden very modest numbers save for last four games of 2015 reg season, otherwise 10-21 vs. line other 31 games since 2014.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions won at Lambeau for first time since ‘91 a year ago! Had failed to cover previous four at Pack. Detroit on 8-3 spread uptick since mid 2015. Pack only 4-4 as home chalk LY, also “under” 7-1 at home.
Tech Edge: Slight to Lions and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Could have been a playoff game LY. Zimmer 10-1 last eleven as dog, Vikes 25-9 vs. spread on Zimmer’s watch since 2014. Also “under” 11-6 away for Zimmer. Cam 9-2 vs. line at home since LY, also “over” 8-2-1 last 11 at B of A.
Tech Edge: Slight to Vikings, based on extended Zimmer marks.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Hawks 8-0-1 vs. line since 2012 against Niners, and have won SU last five meetings, though they're 0-2 vs. line in 2016. This series also “under” 6-1 last seven. Though Hawks have cooled a bit at home, only 4-5 vs. spread last nine at CenturyLink. Niners 2-9 last eleven as road dog.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Seahawks, based on "totals" and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
LOS ANGELES at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bucs were 1-6 as home chalk for Lovie the past two seasons. But Fisher just 2-7-1 vs. line last ten on road. Rams also “under” 13-4-1 last 18 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Bucs and "under," based on recent Ram road woes.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Steel 10-3 last 12 reg.-season chalk. Steel also “under” 8-3 last 11 on road.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. JETS at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Jets 4-0-1 as dog since LY, also 6-3-2 spread uptick as visitor. Jets also “over” 13-6 since late 2014. Chiefs only 3-6 as home chalk since LY.
Tech Edge: Jets and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Philip Rivers 5-1 vs. line against Colts. Bolts 19-8-1 as road dog since 2012. Colts 2-5-1 last eight at Lucas Oil chalk.
Tech Edge: Chargers, based on team and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at DALLAS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Jerry Jones 8-27 as home chalk in reg season since 2010, including bad loss to Bears last time Chicago visited in 2012.
Tech Edge: Bears, based on team trends.




MONDAY, SEPT. 26


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Falcs on 3-11 spread skid since early 2015. Though Falcs had covered three straight vs. Saints before losing both LY. Falcs were 4-1 as dog LY. Saints only 4-10-1 as Superdome chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons, based on extended Saints Superdome chalk woes.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 3 Essentials
September 21, 2016


No one can say the first two weeks of the NFL season haven’t been eventful. Already, injuries and upsets have probably altered what you thought you knew when September began. Here’s all you need to know about Week 3’s slate:


Thursday, Sept. 22


Houston at New England: Although Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) hasn’t officially been ruled out for this one, it’s likely that rookie Jacoby Brissett will make his first career start as he tries to move the Patriots out to 3-0 in the penultimate game before Tom Brady returns from suspension. Former New England offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien brings his Texans in for this battle unbeaten, patiently utilizing the run game to play to his team’s strengths and keep the pressure off Brock Osweiler. New RB Lamar Miller has had 53 carries through Houston’s first two games. The Texans have only beaten the Patriots once in seven career meetings (2010).


Sunday, Sept. 25


Denver at Cincinnati: The Broncos hit the road for the first time this season as Trevor Siemian looks to continue his impressive start, but it’s the defense that has been the driving force for the defending champs. Von Miller was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week and has four sacks through two games. Even with DeMarcus Ware (fractured arm) out, Denver’s pressure should pose major issues for the Bengals, who have largely struggled offensively outside of hitting a few big plays to A.J. Green against New York’s Darrelle Revis in the season opener. Considering Cincy barely won that contest, a loss in its first home game could cause panic among the natives. The Broncos won last year’s meeting in Week 16 in OT 20-17, but neither starting QB in that game, Osweiler and A.J. McCarron, are expected to be a part of this one since Andy Dalton is healthy again.



Oakland at Tennessee: Second-year QB Marcus Mariota went from looking dehydrated on the sidelines to producing the largest Titans fourth-quarter comeback in a decade. Both the offensive line and secondary have stood out thus far for the Titans, making the first 2-1 start since 2013 possible with the Raiders in town. Only Oakland and Indianapolis have surrendered over 30 points in each of the first two games, but the Colts have an excuse given all their injuries. The Raiders have too much talent on that side of the ball to be struggling this much and picked off Mariota twice in last season’s 24-21 win in Nashville. Derek Carr threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns in that game.


Arizona at Buffalo: The Cardinals bounced back from a Week 1 loss to the Pats by trouncing the Bucs, but now have to go across the country to face a desperate Bills squad that should benefit from a few days of extra rest after playing last Thursday. With the buzzards circling around Rex Ryan and New England on tap next week, this is a must-win for a team that still has Sammy Watkins (foot) gutting it out through pain and top DT Marcell Dareus suspended. The Bills have actually won five of six in this series dating back to 1986 when the Cards were still in St. Louis. The franchise hasn’t tasted victory in Buffalo since 1971 and is playing for just the fourth time in Orchard Park, where Arizona has never won at the newly renamed New Era Field.


Baltimore at Jacksonville: The Ravens rallied past the Browns to improve to 2-0 and saw TE Dennis Pitta make a triumphant return from what many felt would be a career-ending injury. Despite the good vibes, the combined record of Baltimore’s opponents entering this one is 0-6 and Joe Flacco has looked rusty as he returns from last year’s ACL and MCL tears, so the Jaguars have an opportunity to snap a five-game losing streak that dates back to December. Jacksonville hasn’t lost to Baltimore at home since 2001, winning the last two meetings. Jags kicker Jason Myers won last November’s Week 10 encounter with a 53-yard field goal at the gun, 22-20. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns each caught TD passes from Blake Bortles.


Cleveland at Miami: Rookie Cody Kessler, who started for years at USC, will lead the Browns in place of Josh McCown (shoulder), becoming the third different player to open as Cleveland’s quarterback in as many weeks. The Dolphins have come up just short in losses in Seattle and New England and were encouraged by Sunday’s rally from a 31-3 deficit against the Patriots as QB Ryan Tannehill found his rhythm. Despite its 0-2 mark, Miami is about a double-digit favorite as it opens its home schedule but probably won't have top RB Arian Foster (groin), which means fumble-prone Jay Ajayi and rookie Kenyan Drake would have to carry the ground game as the Dolphins make their regular-season debut at the newly renamed and renovated Hard Rock Stadium.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: Despite puzzling playcalling in the red zone, New York survived in an unexpectedly low-scoring game against New Orleans and can go up three games on the ‘Skins in the NFC East by taking care of business here. Victor Cruz made another clutch catch to set up the win, but all eyes here will be on Odell Beckham Jr. as he matches up with Josh Norman for the first time after last season’s memorable fight-filled duel when the corner was a member of the Panthers. Washington won last season’s final encounter 20-14 to snap a five-game losing streak at the hands of their division rival, but it has only beaten the Giants once at Met Life Stadium in the past eight meetings (2011).


Detroit at Green Bay: Although Aaron Rodgers’ two costly fourth-quarter turnovers prevented the Packers from a win at NFC North rival Minnesota on Sunday night, he’s clearly more comfortable with Jordy Nelson back as his security blanket. The Packers will make their regular-season debut at Lambeau against a Lions squad that saw all the momentum from their Week 1 win over the Colts dashed by a late collapse at home against the Titans. Detroit snapped a 24-game losing streak in Green Bay that dated back to 1991 with an 18-16 win last season, but is reeling after losing RB Ameer Abdullah for the season due to a foot injury. He was averaging nearly 7 yards per touch through the first two games.


Minnesota at Carolina: Franchise RB Adrian Peterson tore his meniscus on Sunday night and has opted for surgery, which means the Vikings will likely be without him the rest of the season. Sam Bradford connected with Stefon Diggs the way predecessor Teddy Bridgewater was starting to, helping balance out the offense, so they should be able to move the ball even without Peterson if that continues. Minnesota’s defense looks fierce enough to give Cam Newton fits in what looks like perhaps the top matchup in the entire league this week. Including the last two postseasons, the Panthers have won 14 consecutive home games.

San Francisco at Seattle: It's obvious that Russell Wilson is operating at less than 75 percent due to an ankle injury suffered in Week 1 and the offense has struggled immensely as a result, producing a single touchdown and 15 total points through the first two weeks. The 49ers have been able to put points on the board behind Blaine Gabbert, so this game could get very interesting if the Seahawks continue to sputter. Top receiver Doug Baldwin (knee) and starting RB Thomas Rawls (leg) are both dealing with pain, so even if they play, the Seahawks appear limited given Wilson’s issues and the struggles of their offensive line. San Francisco is 1-7 against the Seahawks over the past few years, last winning at home in Dec. 2013. The Niners haven’t won in Seattle since 2011, losing five straight by a combined margin of 140-53.


Los Angeles at Tampa Bay: The Rams have only scored nine points in two games, but arrive in Florida 1-1 after taking down the Seahawks. Case Keenum will look to lead the offense to their first touchdown against a Bucs defense that got carved up in Arizona, but any chance of another upset hinges on turning over Jameis Winston, who went from being Week 1’s highest-rated QB to one of Week 2’s worst. Top RB Doug Martin (hamstring) won’t play, which will thrust Charles Sims into a starting role, backed by Jacquizz Rodgers. One of these teams will be a surprising 2-1 and tied for the lead in their division after this is in the books.


Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: The Keystone State’s NFL reps square off in the final game before Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell returns from suspension, so Pittsburgh hopes to get to its bye week unbeaten by continuing to ride DeAngelo Williams, who topped 10,000 career yards and is making the most of increased opportunities. The Eagles will be playing on a short week after defeating Chicago on Monday night, so you can understand why the surprising Carson Wentz and his teammates are a home underdog despite the rookie’s unexpected success. Philadelphia is 47-28-3 against the Steelers, but have lost two of the last three meetings over the past 12 years, including the most recent one (16-14) in 2012. The last three games in the series have gone well under the posted total.


N.Y. Jets at Kansas City: Neither of these teams are likely to win their division, but both veteran squads expect to make the playoffs. That makes this showdown pivotal as one we’ll likely look back upon as a potential tiebreaker in the AFC playoff race. The Chiefs are expected to get Jamaal Charles back from his knee injury for his 2016 debut, while Jets WR Brandon Marshall survived his own knee scare last Thursday night and is listed as ‘probable’ here. Eric Decker (shoulder) and Quincy Enunwa (ribs) should also play as they try and pick up where they left off in combining for 317 yards on 18 receptions in a Thursday night win over Buffalo.


San Diego at Indianapolis: The Chargers have lost key offensive players to torn ACLs in each of the first two weeks, watching RB Danny Woodhead suffer the same fate that befell WR Keenan Allen in the season opener. The 0-2 Colts have seen their secondary decimated by injuries and are struggling with keeping Andrew Luck clean and giving him time to throw. Indy opened last year with consecutive losses before Luck led a wild 35-33 comeback win in Tennessee to avoid its first 0-3 start since 2011. The Colts shuffled their offensive line in that game and got clutch catches from Philip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief, receivers being counted on to continue making progress this season. We’ll see if history repeats itself, though Moncrief may miss time with a shoulder injury and is ‘questionable’.


Chicago at Dallas: The Bears will be back in prime time, looking to prevent Dak Prescott and the Cowboys from a second straight win. Rookie Ezekiel Elliott has excelled in leading the Dallas ground game and keeping pressure off Tony Romo’s replacement, so all eyes will be on him to continue his strong start. Since the Monday night game featured so much attrition among the defense and also saw QB Jay Cutler (thumb) injured, the Bears are going to need an inspired effort from a depleted group to avoid an 0-3 start for the second straight year under John Fox.


Monday, Sept. 26


Atlanta at New Orleans: This NFC South clash means everything to the Saints. Either they pull off a victory that renews hope in the Crescent City and rejuvenates the belief that having Drew Brees under center is like having a chip and chair or despair sets in early. The alternative, very simply, would feature finger-pointing. New Orleans would come out of Monday night 0-3, winless in two home games and very unhappy since blame could be laid anywhere. Sean Payton’s defense let it down in the season-opening loss to Oakland, while his offense managed a single touchdown in New York last Sunday. The Falcons are on the road for a second consecutive week and swept both games in this situation last season, winning in Weeks 2 and 3 at New York and Dallas en route to a 5-0 start. New Orleans swept the 2015 meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

Apparently What Works for Some Doesn't Work for Others...


Three women: one engaged, one married and one a mistress, were chatting about their relationships and decided they needed to spice up their love lives.


All three agreed to wear black leather bras, stiletto heels and a mask over their eyes that evening with their respective lovers.


After a few days they met up for lunch and compared notes.


The engaged woman: "The other night when my boyfriend came over he found me with a black leather bodice, tall stilettos and a mask.


He saw me and said: 'You are the woman of my life. I love you.' Then we made love all night long."


The mistress: "Me too! The other night I met my lover at his office and I was wearing the leather bodice, heels, mask over my eyes and a raincoat.


When I opened the raincoat, he didn't say a word, but we had wild sex all night!"


The married woman said: "I sent the kids to stay at my mother's house for the night, when my husband came home.


I was wearing the leather bodice, black stockings, stilettos and a mask over my eyes.


As soon as he came in the door and saw me he said: 'What's for dinner, Batman?'"

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS:


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 40-51-3 43.96% -8050


O/U Picks 42-47-4 47.19% -4850




THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 22


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


HOU at NE 08:25 PM


NE -1.0


U 39.5

 

[CNOTES]

Brissett, defense key 27-0 Patriots win
September 22, 2016


FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) Maybe Texans safety Andre Hal thought Jacoby Brissett would run out of bounds at the 5 in the first quarter of his first NFL start.


After all, with Tom Brady suspended and Jimmy Garoppolo injured, the Patriots didn't have any other quarterbacks on the roster to call upon if the 23-year-old rookie got hurt.


But Brissett, who broke free around the right side on a first-and-15 from the Houston 27, went untouched to the 5 before Hal appeared to have him cornered. Heading for the sideline, Brissett stutter-stepped and let the defender cut in front of him, then slipped through his grasp before diving for the end zone .


As his teammates rushed to celebrate with him, the stadium public address blasted out The Doors: ''Hello, I love you, won't you tell me your name.''


Brissett went on to complete 11 of 19 passes for 103 yards, and ran for 48 yards on eight carries for the Patriots on Thursday night as they took advantage of three Houston turnovers to beat the Texans 27-0. The 27-yard touchdown run was the longest for a Patriots quarterback since 1976.


New England improved to 3-0 without Brady, who has one game remaining on his ''Deflategate'' suspension.


It was quite an introduction for Brissett, who came on in relief of Garoppolo against Miami on Sunday and four days later became the first rookie quarterback to start for the Patriots since Drew Bledsoe in 1993 - and the first black player to start at QB in franchise history .


It was 15 years minus one day after Bledsoe was knocked out of the game on a hit by Jets linebacker Mo Lewis.


Brady led the Patriots to the Super Bowl title that year - and three more - relinquishing the job only in 2008, when he was injured, and again this year when NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell benched him four games for his role in a scheme to use improperly inflated footballs in the 2015 AFC title game.


Bledsoe, who had been the No. 1 overall pick in the 1993 NFL draft, was the last rookie to start a game at quarterback for the Patriots before Brissett took the field on Thursday night, leading the team out of the tunnel before the game and then to a victory during it.


Brissett made his NFL debut in relief of Garoppolo, who was slammed to the turf by Dolphins linebacker Kiko Alonso on Sunday, a 31-24 Patriots victory. Brissett completed 6 of 9 passes for 92 yards against Miami but it wasn't clear he would get the start until Garoppolo was on the inactive list when it was released 90 minutes before kickoff.


Coach Bill Belichick decided not to bring in a free agent quarterback to fill out the depth chart , leaving only receiver Julian Edelman, who played QB at Kent State, if something happened to Brissett.

 

[CNOTES]

Best Bets - Week 3
September 22, 2016




Two weeks into the 2016 NFL season and it's been a pair of 1-1 ATS weeks for this feature. Last week it was the Arizona Cardinals and their thorough rebound in soundly beating Tampa that got us to the window, but a three-point win by the Giants wasn't enough to cover the spread. 50% isn't going to cut it in this business so it's time to start stringing together a couple of perfect weeks in a row, starting with these Week 3 best bets.


Best Bet #1: Carolina -7


Carolina rebounded in a big way last week after losing to Denver in Week 1 and their road to redemption should continue this week. They host a Minnesota team that has had nothing but bad luck on the injury front so far and should be able to take control of this game early on and go from there.


Minnesota may be 2-0 SU and ATS, but this is going to be their toughest test to date and they just don't have the weapons to keep up with the Panthers this week. They rank 28th in the league in offense with just 292.5 yards per game and only have two offensive TD's all year. It's still early in 2016, but averaging one offensive TD per game isn't going to get it done against a quality foe like Carolina and Vikings fans will likely be in for a rude awakening here.


Meanwhile, Carolina is on a 20-7-1 ATS run at home and have a 9-2 ATS run going after gaining 350+ yards in their last contest. Cam Newton and company completely dismantled the 49ers defense a week ago, and while Minnesota's defensive unit will be tougher, Carolina will find ways to consistently move the ball this week. Getting to 24 could likely be the magic number for the Panthers here as it's going to be tough for the Vikings to get 14+ points with the weapons they've got and Carolina's defense out there. We should see the Panthers reach that number in Week 3 and cash another ticket for bettors.


Best Bet #2: Tampa Bay -5.5


Speaking of offensively challenged teams like Minnesota, the Vikings two offensive TD's this year looks spectacular when you compare it with the Rams. Los Angeles has yet to score a touchdown of any kind through two games and while that will likely change this week against Tampa, the Rams won't score enough to keep up with Tampa in this spot.


The Bucs are looking to rebound after getting dismantled by Arizona last week and this is a perfect spot for them to do so. They are hosting a Rams team that's got to travel all the way across the country to play in a hot and muggy environment without a touchdown scored on the season. The perception of Tampa has changed a bit after the beating they took last week, but this is still a team on the rise and they'll show it this week.


Tampa is 7-1 ATS after allowing 30+ points last time out and have a 5-1 ATS run going after scoring less than 15 points. They are also 10-4 ATS after failing to cover a spread and know how important a win this week would be for their goal of making the playoffs this year. These are the types of games and types of scheduling spots that a young team like Tampa has to take advantage of if they want to become a yearly contender in this league.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 3 Underdogs
September 21, 2016



Week 2 saw plenty of the “sizeable underdogs” featured in this piece gets wins against the spread, but only Tennessee, Los Angeles, and Atlanta win outright.


The ML prices of +200, +240, and +180 respectively brought in a nice payday for bettors who weren't scared to bypass the points and take those three teams outright, but of the nine teams listed in last week's feature, nearly all of them but Tampa Bay were in their respective games until the end.


The Colts and 49ers gave up late scores to fall short ATS, but the fact that eight of the nine teams getting +4 or better last week were hovering around their point spread for the majority of the contest goest ot show you just how hard handicapping the NFL can be.

This week we've got another nine NFL underdogs fitting the +4 or greater description, so it's time to run through which one of them has got the best chance to win outright.

Sportsbook.ag Week 3 Underdogs that Qualify

Buffalo Bills (+4.5); ML (+177)


Cleveland Browns (+10); ML (+400)


Washington Redskins (+4.5); ML (+170)


Detroit Lions (+7.5); ML (+300)


Minnesota Vikings (+7); ML (+260)


San Francisco 49ers (+9); ML (+330)


LA Rams (+5); ML (+190)


Philadelphia Eagles (+4); ML (+160)


Chicago Bears (+7); ML (+300)

There are a lot of ugly teams on that list and at first glance it's tough to see any of them pulling off the outright upset this week. For instance, Cleveland's in Miami and looking like a team that could challenge an 0-16 SU season this year, and Detroit's in Green Bay against a Packers team looking to rebound off one divisional loss already. San Fran is another divisional road underdog in Seattle, and while the Seahawks haven't looked good at all so far, it's likely only a matter of time before they turn this thing around and beating up on the hated 49ers may be exactly what they need.

Minnesota's a huge question mark with the injured roster they are trotting out there in Carolina on Sunday, and the Bears are forced to turn to journeyman QB Brian Hoyer in Dallas on SNF. That's a big chunk of that list already written off in terms of putting down a confident ML wager this week. The rest of that list leaves Buffalo (+177), Washington (+170), LA (+190), and Philadelphia (+160).

Buffalo and Washington appear to have their own internal issues surfacing as there have been reports of a locker room divide in Washington and the Rex Ryan era in Buffalo may be over very shortly. Of the two, it's likely that Buffalo is the more desperate team this week given the division they are in and how hot the seat is that Ryan is currently occupying. Yet, with Arizona in town and New England on deck, the immediate future looks pretty bleak for the Bills right now and it's tough justifying a ML wager on them here.

The Rams have a tough scheduling spot themselves this week as they fly cross-country to Tampa to face an 1-1 Buccaneers team that got their butts handed to them last week. And while LA's defense has proved to be very formidable so far this year (3 total points allowed), it's very easy to see the Bucs take advantage of this tough spot LA is in and decide that game relatively early.

Philly hosts the Steelers in a in-state rivalry game that will be tough for the Eagles to pull off. Yes, they are they are 2-0 SU so far, but wins over the Browns and Bears don't exactly appear to be great wins in terms of competition level. Facing the Steelers will be a big step up in talent level for the Eagles and +160 just isn't enough to justify a wager there.

This underdog ML betting option board looks rather ugly in all, but the best option here has to be Washington. The Redskins are in an 0-2 SU hole and while there may be some locker room tension right now, a win would do wonders in removing that divide. It's a big rivalry game with the Giants and although much of the attention will be on the Norman/Beckham matchup on the outside, if Washington's offense can move the ball consistently against New York, they'll definitely have a chance to steal one on the road.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS:


THURSDAY RESULTS: 2 - 0


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 41-51-3 44.57% -7550


O/U Picks 43-47-4 47.78% -4350

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 3
September 23, 2016




For the second time in three weeks, the betting public was all over the a team favored over the Patriots and for the second time, New England made a resounding statement to never against them when their underdogs. Thursday night's 27-0 win over Houston led Las Vegas sports books to a winning day and didn't leave much carry over risk heading into Sunday's Week 3 action.


"It was a real good day with the Patriots for us," said South Point book director Chris Andrews. "It was made even better with Clemson covering (-10) at Georgia Tech. There was a little bit of wise guy play on Clemson, but the public was on the dog."


Just for future reference, whenever seeing the Patriots as an underdog, know that they have now covered eight of their last nine in that situation. And on the rare occasion when seeing the public collectively jump in on a 10-point underdog, it's a good sign to lay the favorite.


Andrews has been booking games in Nevada for the past 37 years and is in his first football season running the South Point book. He gave me a few minutes Friday afternoon to review what type of risk he's looking at for Sunday's games.


"We opened the Bengals -3.5 and with Andy Dalton being banged up we got some sharp money taking the Broncos, but it evened out with Bengals play when we went to -3," said Andrews, who has it mandated from owner Michael Guaghan to always use flat numbers. They're the only book in Las Vegas town that uses that policy. They hit their threshold soon after and moved back to -3.5. Stations and Coast are at -3 (-120). The total moved from 41 to 41.5 on Friday.


Tennessee hasn't moved all week from being a 1-point home favorite over Oakland -- a few books have them -1.5. The total is sitting at 47 where it opened, with a brief stint at 46.5. The Raiders defense has given up an average of 517 yards per game between a thrilling win at New Orleans and last weeks home loss to Atlanta.


Buffalo is 0-2 with Rex Ryan on the hot seat already, but they have some supporters in Las Vegas as the Cardinals visit. "Wise guys are on Buffalo which moved us from +4.5 to +4, but the public is all over the Cards," said Andrews. The total has dropped from 47 to 46.5.


It's rare that the sharp and public money are both on the same side, but Andrews says that's what's happening with Baltimore in its game at Jacksonville. The South Point has the Ravens -1 and the total has dropped from 47.5 to 47.


Miami is a 9.5-point home favorite over Cleveland, who will be starting rookie Cody Kessler. "We've had decent two-way action on the game," said Andrews, who hasn't moved the number. The total went up from 41.5 to 42 on Wednesday.


The Giants opened as 5-point home favorites against the Redskins and were bet down from the dead number to -4.5 on Wednesday and a couple of large Redskins wagers came in on Friday pushing the number down to -4 and -3.5. Wynn, Caesars and the Golden Nugget all moved to -3.5 on Friday as well. The total has moved up from 46.5 to 46. The Redskins halted a Giants five game win and cover streak with a 20-14 home win in the last meeting in November.


"We took a real big play on Detroit at +8 on Monday," said Andrews, who moved the road dog from +7.5 to +7 on Thursday. "But we're loaded again on the Packers with all the public parlay play." The Lions have won three of the past five meetings, including their first win at Green Bay since 1991 last season. The total is sitting steady at 48 with a low of 47 sitting at Wynn.


Within an hour of opening Carolina as 7.5-point home favorites over Minnesota on Monday, Vikings money was quickly dropped down at the South Point book and they've been at -7 since. The total hasn't moved off 43. The Vikings have covered their last eight road games. Their last road fail was a Monday night Week 1 loss at San Francisco last season.


San Francisco is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Seattle, but after the Seahawks looked very sluggish in their first two games, the public isn't so keen laying double-digits with them at home, and they love the Seahawks almost every week in their parlays. The first large wager Andrews took on the game was Tuesday on the 49ers at +10 pushing it to 9.5 where it's stayed the rest of the week. The total has jumped up from 40.5 to 41.5 despite Seattle's average score between games against Miami and Los Angeles being a paltry 7.5-to-7.5.


"The biggest bet game of the week is Pittsburgh at Phialdelphia, "said Andrews. "We're sitting even on the game, very balanced, which is kind of surprising because the Steelers are a very public team and have covered both their games. The people like what Carson Wentz is doing so far. They believe in him." The Eagles have covered both their games as well and the game has been sitting Pittsburgh as 3.5-point road favorites all week. The total was bumped up from 46 to 47 on Friday.


"We've had big action on the Jets all week," said Andrews. "I didn't want, but we finally had to go to Chiefs -2.5 on Friday." Andrews opened the Chiefs as 3.5-point home favorites on Monday and got peppered with Jets money multiple times since Tuesday at +3 before reluctantly moving, It's a bookmakers worst nightmare to cross over 3 and have the favored team win by 3 -- lose on the dog money at +3.5, refund +3 and lose on -2.5. There is no other -2.5 in town with every other book at -3 (EV). The total has dropped from 43.5 to 42.5.


"The wise guys took +3 with the Chargers, but the public is on the Colts," Andrews said. The Colts opened as 3-point home favorites over the Chargers and within 40 minutes they moved to -2.5 and on Friday they went to -2. Stations is the only book holding tight at -3 (EV). The total is if 51.5 to 52 throughout town.


After the Jay Cutler injury, the South Point opened Dallas as 7.5-point home favorites over Chicago, and they got Bears money within two hours to push them to -7. Brian Hoyer will start for Cutler. The total has gone from 45 to 44.5.


On Monday night, New Orleans is a 3-point home favorite against Atlanta in a match-up between two of the four worst defenses in the league. So it's understandable that the total is set at 53.5, where the Saints have gone 6-0-1 to the Over in their last seven home games. "This might be the lowest handled Monday Night Football game in its history," Andrews joked. "We don't have anything on it."

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 3
September 24, 2016




Another solid back-and-forth week in the totals market as bettors watched the ‘over’ go 8-7-1 with the lone push coming on Monday and that outcome between the Eagles and Bears was helped with 27 unanswered points in the final 30 minutes.


Second-half scoring surges were a common theme last weekend and bettors playing the ‘under’ in a few late games caught some tough breaks in the below games.


Colts-Broncos: 35 points in second-half, two defensive scores by Denver in fourth
Falcons-Raiders: 39 second-half points
Jaguars-Chargers: 31 points with Jacksonville adding meaningless score with 1:03 remaining


Through two weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 16-15-1 through 32 games.


Quick Observations


It’s rare to see totals listed below 40 points in the NFL these days but the first one of the season saw the ‘under’ (38) connect easily as the Rams beat the Seahawks 9-3.


After seeing the two highest totals go ‘over’ in Week 1, bettors watched the highest numbers in Week 2 go ‘under’ the number. (Saints-Giants 54, Buccaneers-Cardinals 49).


Five teams (Buccaneers, Redskins, Jaguars, Raiders, Colts) in the NFL are allowing 30-plus points per game through two weeks and four of them are allowing 395 total yards of defense. The one outlier is Jacksonville (325 YPG) and it’s actually outgained its first two opponents but turnovers (4/1) have been killers.


The Chargers are averaging 21 points in the first half this season, which is the best in the league. The Raiders lead the league with 23 PPG in the second-half. For those interested, Cleveland has only scored three points in the second-half this season and Baltimore hasn’t allowed a point in the final 30 minutes of each of their first two games.


Cody Kessler will be the fourth rookie quarterback to start a game this season when he suits up for Cleveland against Miami. Bettors could be hesitant to back the young guns but Carson Wentz (29 PPG) and Dak Prescott (23 PPG) have been decent and the Patriots just scored 27 on Thursday with Jacoby Brissett under center.


Non-Conference Action


Through two weeks of the season, we’ve seen the ‘over’ go 7-5 in 12 non-conference games and this week’s card has two matchups on tap. I dug up some numbers on this week’s games and there are some strong scoring tendencies for both visitors.


Arizona at Buffalo: This will be the first road game of the season for the Cardinals and bettors saw the club go 6-3 to the high side last season when away. Digging deeper into Arizona, we found out that the team is averaging 26.4 PPG on the road in non-divisional games since head coach Bruce Arians took over. The Buffalo defense (400 YPG) hasn’t looked sharp this season and followers of this column are aware that this matchup fits the “Thursday Night Total” system since the Bills played the midweek game in Week 2. The Bills offense will have a new coordinator in Anthony Lynn running the show this Sunday.


Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: The Steelers have seen the ‘over’ go 11-3 in their last 14 games versus the NFC and they’re averaging 29.7 PPG during this span, which includes their 38-16 win at Washington in Week 1. The Eagles defense (286 YPG, 12 PPG) has started off very strong but facing Big Ben is a huge step up in class from RG3 and Jay Cutler.


Divisional Battles


Washington at N.Y. Giants: Tale of two different tapes for this matchup with the Redskins 2-0 to the ‘over’ while the Giants have seen the ‘under’ connect in their first two games. New York’s defense (16 PPG, 308 YPG) has looked much better early in the season while Washington’s unit (408.5 YPG, 32.5 PPG) continues to look suspect. QB Kirk Cousins has struggled in his career (1-3) versus the Giants with 8 interceptions (3 TDs) and this appears to be a better New York defense. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.


Detroit at Green Bay: Three of the last six meetings in this series have seen exactly 50 points scored, while the pair combined for 31, 26 and 34 points in the other three contests. Those outcomes have produced a 3-3 total mark during this span. You might be surprised but Detroit’s offense (411.5 YPG) is much better than Green Bay (287 YPG) thus far and even though the Lions put up 15 points last week, three touchdowns were called back on penalties.


San Francisco at Seattle: This is the lowest total (40 ½) on the board and it could be hard making a case for the ‘over’ based on what we’ve seen from Seattle. The Seahawks defense (9.5 PPG) is miles ahead of their offense (7.5 PPG) and the health of QB Russell Wilson remains a concern behind an average offensive line. Surprisingly, the 49ers are averaging 27.5 PPG after two games but that number was helped with plenty of short tracks due to turnovers. The ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and San Francisco has scored a total of 26 points in the last four encounters.


Under the Lights


Including Thursday’s easy ‘under’ winner between the Patriots and Texans, I’m guessing the bookmakers are happy with the primetime results this season. We’ve seen one unexpected shootout, a few low-scoring affairs and some great middle opportunities for savvy players. Headed into this weekend, the ‘under’ holds a slight 4-3-1 edge.


Chicago at Dallas: Very tough total to handicap here due to the quarterback situation for both teams but the early money has pushed the odds from 45 ½ to 44. Brian Hoyer will get the start at QB for Chicago and while he’s not special, he’s capable. In 10 starts for the Texans last season, the team scored 20-plus in seven of those games. Dallas QB Dak Prescott hasn’t looked like a rookie but he’s been held back with the club trying to establish the run (60 carries) the first two weeks. Defensively, Chicago is better than advertised while the Cowboys “bend but don’t break” plan has worked, so far. These teams have played three times since 2012 and the ‘over’ has connected easily with combined scores of 52, 73 and 69 points posted.


Atlanta at New Orleans: These “indoor” teams always seem to warrant a high total when they get together based on public perception but bettors should be aware that the ‘under’ is on a 6-3-1 run in this series. Atlanta has seen the ‘over’ cash in its first two games behind an offense (451 YPG) that is clicking on all cylinders and it will be facing a New Orleans defense (452 YPG) that has looked atrocious. The Saints offense has always played better at home and the Falcons defense has surrendered 59 points in their first two games.


Fearless Predictions


Fair to say we never had a shot on either of my first two plays but the team total connected easily and the teaser was never in doubt. Despite dropping 10 cents ($10), the bankroll ($190) is still in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Pittsburgh-Philadelphia 46 ½


Best Under: Minnesota-Carolina 42 ½


Best Team Total: Over 26 Indianapolis


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)


Under 51 ½ Minnesota-Carolina


Over 38 Arizona-Buffalo


Over 44 ½ Atlanta-New Orleans

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 3
September 23, 2016

Week 2 Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS


Overall Record: 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS


Review: The Falcons and Cowboys both won outright as road underdogs, while the Cardinals and Texans took care of business as home favorites. The two losses came by the Colts and Bengals on the highway, but we’ll take a winning week.


Broncos at Bengals (-3, 41) – 1:00 PM EST


Denver
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1


The post-Peyton Manning era in Denver hasn’t been a disappointment, as the Broncos have picked up home victories over the Panthers and Colts. Denver’s defense stepped up with a pair of second-half defensive touchdowns in a 34-20 triumph over Indianapolis last week as six-point favorites. Last season, the Broncos covered in all six opportunities as an underdog, while cashing in Week 1’s comeback win against Carolina as a slight ‘dog. Denver held off Cincinnati at home last December, 20-17, but failed to cash as 3 ½-point favorites.


Cincinnati
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1


The Bengals play their home opener on Sunday after dropping a 24-16 decision to the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season, the Steelers. Cincinnati has been outgained on the ground in both games, while picking up only 46 rushing yards on 18 carries against Pittsburgh. The Bengals own an 11-4-1 record in their past 16 regular season home contests with three of those losses coming to division foes. Cincinnati has won and covered five consecutive September home games since 2013, including three victories by double-digits.


Best Bet: Cincinnati -3


Redskins at Giants (-4 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Washington
Record: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

The Redskins captured the NFC East championship last season at 9-7, but Washington has stumbled to an 0-2 start following home losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas. The Cowboys and Redskins went back and forth before Dallas scored a touchdown with five minutes left to grab a 27-23 victory at FedEx Field. Kirk Cousins threw for 364 yards in the defeat for Washington, but the ‘Skins fell to 1-4 in their last five home contests. Washington wrapped up the 2015 season with three consecutive road victories, all in the underdog role. However, the Redskins have lost four straight meetings at Met Life Stadium, including three in a row by double-digits at New York.


New York
Record: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1


The Giants have squeezed by in both of their victories over the Cowboys and Saints, winning the two games by a combined four points. New York’s offense failed to reach the end zone in last Sunday’s 16-13 triumph over New Orleans, as the Giants relied on its special teams for three field goals and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. New York’s defense has given up only two touchdowns through two games resulting in a pair of UNDERS, as the Giants closed out last season with four consecutive OVERS. However, New York has gone OVER the total in five of the previous six home divisional contests since 2014.


Best Bet: Washington +4 ½


Lions at Packers (-7 ½, 48) – 1:00 PM EST


Detroit
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1


The Lions melted down late in last Sunday’s 16-15 home setback to the Titans, blowing a 15-3 fourth quarter lead. Detroit cashed as an underdog in Week 1 at Indianapolis, but couldn’t take home the money as six-point favorites against Tennessee, dropping to 2-7 the last nine years in Week 2. The Lions snapped a 23-game losing streak at Green Bay in last season’s 18-16 triumph as 10-point underdogs, while losing the second matchup with the Packers on Aaron Rodgers’ Hail Mary touchdown in the final seconds at Ford Field, 27-23.


Green Bay
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1


The Packers held off the Jaguars in Week 1, but were tripped up by the Vikings in Week 2 in a 17-14 defeat as short favorites. Green Bay’s offense was held to 263 yards in last Sunday’s loss, as the Packers have yet to bust the 300-yard mark in two games. Under Mike McCarthy, Green Bay owns an 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS record in home openers, while scoring at least 27 points in five of their last six openers at Lambeau Field. In 2014, the Packers won and covered all three home divisional games, winning by an average of nearly four touchdowns. Last season, Green Bay lost all three NFC North contests at home, while scoring 16 points or fewer in all three defeats.


Best Bet: Detroit +7 ½


Vikings at Panthers (-7, 43) – 1:00 PM EST


Minnesota
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1


The Vikings lost their starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in training camp to a season-ending knee injury. It got worse for Minnesota when star running back Adrian Peterson suffered a knee injury that will sideline the former rushing champion for a majority, if not the rest of the season. The Vikings found a way to knock off the Packers, 17-14 as short home underdogs, as Sam Bradford performed well in his Minnesota debut by throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns. Minnesota owns an 11-3 ATS record as a road underdog under Mike Zimmer, but two of those losses came as a ‘dog of a touchdown or higher.


Carolina
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1


The Panthers rebounded from their late meltdown in a Week 1 defeat at Denver as Carolina blasted San Francisco, 46-27 as 12-point home favorites in Week 2. Cam Newton torched the 49ers for 353 yards and four touchdowns as Carolina extended its winning streak at Bank of America Stadium to 14 games. The Panthers have covered nine of their past 11 home contests, including a 3-1 ATS mark in this stretch as a favorite of seven points or more. Carolina is hosting Minnesota for the first time since 2011, while the Panthers look to avenge a 31-13 road drubbing to the Vikings in 2014.


Best Bet: Carolina -7


Steelers (-3 ½, 46) at Eagles – 4:25 PM EST


Pittsburgh
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1


Both Keystone State teams have jumped out to 2-0 starts, as the Steelers has held their first two opponents to a total of two touchdowns. Pittsburgh dominated Washington in the opener, followed by a 24-16 home triumph over Cincinnati to improve to 2-0 for the first time since 2010. The Steelers have owned the NFC recently by winning six of the past seven interconference games since 2013, including three consecutive victories in the favorite role. Dating back to the start of 2015, Pittsburgh has cashed the UNDER in nine of 11 road games, while allowing 20 points or less in four straight as an away favorite.


Philadelphia
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1


The Eagles are more of a 2-0 surprise than their Pennsylvania counterparts, as rookie Carson Wentz has led Philadelphia to victories over Cleveland and Chicago. Granted, both the Browns and Bears have combined to start 0-4, but Wentz has yet to throw an interception, while the Eagles’ defense has allowed 24 points. With the departure of Chip Kelly and hiring of Doug Pederson, Philadelphia isn’t playing uptempo football this season after closing out last season on a 7-2 run to the OVER. The Eagles have limped to a 4-7 record in the past 11 games at Lincoln Financial Field, as two of those wins are over Cleveland and Buffalo.


Best Bet: Pittsburgh -3 ½


Jets at Chiefs (-3, 43) – 4:25 PM EST


New York
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Jets’ offense was flying high in last Thursday 37-31 victory at Buffalo, racking up nearly 500 yards of offense, including 374 yards through the air from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Matt Forte continued to run the ball well in his second game with the Jets, finding the end zone three times, while both Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall eclipsed the 100-yard mark receiving. The Jets own a 2-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog under Todd Bowles, while New York hasn’t won consecutive away games since 2010.


Kansas City
Record: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1


The Chiefs overcame a 21-point deficit in their Week 1 overtime triumph over the Chargers, but Kansas City failed to reach the end zone in last Sunday’s 19-12 setback at Houston. That loss snapped an 11-game regular season winning streak for Kansas City, but the Chiefs will carry a six-game hot streak at Arrowhead Stadium going into Sunday. The Chiefs have failed to cover four consecutive home games since last December, but in all four of those contests, Kansas City was listed as a 6 ½-point favorite or higher.


Best Bet: Kansas City -3

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3
September 24, 2016




NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Bills are 12-0 ATS since Dec 24, 2011 at home after a loss where they allowed at least 100 rushing yards.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Chiefs are 0-11-1 ATS since Nov 17, 2002 at home as a favorite when they had no more than 15 first downs last game.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Steelers are 0-9-1 OU since Jan 01, 2012 on the road when facing a team Antonio Brown had at least 75 yards against last meeting.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Chiefs are 0-11 OU since Dec 13, 2009 at home after they had less than 28 minutes time of possession last game.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Bears are 10-0 OU since Dec 25, 2011 off a game as a favorite where they had less than 300 total yards.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Packers are 15-0 OU as a favorite of more than six points vs a team with the same record.